Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4600
{ "count": 6392, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4620", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4580", "results": [ { "id": 8408, "title": "Will GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a \"top charity\" before 2027?", "short_title": "Givewell recommend breastfeeding promotion", "url_title": "Givewell recommend breastfeeding promotion", "slug": "givewell-recommend-breastfeeding-promotion", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-27T00:19:32.419971Z", "published_at": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.969415Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-02T00:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8408, "title": "Will GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a \"top charity\" before 2027?", "created_at": "2021-10-27T00:19:32.419971Z", "open_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-09T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-02T00:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-02T00:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating [14 charity areas](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) including breastfeeding promotion.\n\nThe following sections are quoted from GiveWell’s [explanation of the topic](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/breastfeeding-promotion):\n\n“The World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF recommend early initiation of breastfeeding, exclusive breastfeeding to 6 months, and partial breastfeeding to age 24 months to improve infant and maternal health, but the majority of infants are not fed according to these guidelines. Mothers may not breastfeed as long or as intensively as they would like due to a lack of skills and support, so various maternal counselling and support interventions promote breastfeeding behaviour change.”\n\nEffectiveness for the following reasons: “We believe there is reasonably strong evidence that breastfeeding support programs can lead to increases in rates of exclusive breastfeeding up to 6 months (compared to some or predominant breastfeeding) and breastfeeding duration, as recommended by WHO/UNICEF. Their impacts on exclusive breastfeeding may be larger in low-income countries. There is additional evidence that increasing breastfeeding reduces diarrhoea morbidity, which likely leads to reductions in childhood mortality from diarrhoea. It may also cause additional benefits that we have not yet vetted.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if GiveWell publishes a recommendation that grants be given to support breastfeeding promotion or on or before December 31, 2026. Or if a breastfeeding promotion charity is designated a top charity before December 31, 2026.\n\nThis may happen in the following ways:\n\n- GiveWell writes “yes” in the column “Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?” in the “breastfeeding promotion” row of the GiveWell [program reviews spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or the spreadsheet which supersedes this one (see below). \n- Givewell publishes a blog in which which they announce they are recommending a grant in the area of breastfeeding promotion\n- Givewell adds an incubation grant to a breastfeeding promotion charity on this page [https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants)\n- A GiveWell blog post announcing that a charity in the area of breastfeeding promotion is a “Top Charity”\n- GiveWell publishes a section on breastfeeding promotion on its [Top Charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) page", "fine_print": "If GiveWell publishes a recommendation that is no longer in force in 2027, this question resolves positively. Eg GiveWell no longer recommends grants to GiveDirectly, but it once did. \n\nIf GiveWell revokes a recommendation due to making errors in its calculations, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nThe category “standout charities” used to exist. It no longer does, so can be ignored.\n\nIf the GiveWell [program reviews spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) is no longer linked from [this page](https://www.givewell.org/research), a superseding spreadsheet may be used. A superseding spreadsheet should have very similar column headings or the same title (“GiveWell programme reviews) or be linked under “prioritized list of programmes” from [this page](https://www.givewell.org/research) or failing that, be the consensus choice of admins commenting on the question. \n\nFor clarity, if the above criteria aren’t met, but a reasonable spreadsheet exists which contains a grant for breastfeeding promotion exists, admins can post their suggestions of the spreadsheet in the comments of this question. Admins can change their votes, but at the time of resolution, all admins should have commented in favour of the same spreadsheet. If they have not, and the question does not resolve positively by any of the other methods, the question resolves ambiguously.", "post_id": 8408, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742928606.372405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742928606.372405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5700000000000001, 0.43 ], "means": [ 0.4320108451923379 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3931788393696893, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46695098691035586, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.9166055077684726, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4113934982551416, 1.0153876124602195, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 1.3778736380988303, 0.0, 0.05114234839729029, 0.0, 0.2816040849645333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0176036300705131, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.6447747757508819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287202.847828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287202.847828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5659664232871631, 0.43403357671283693 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating [14 charity areas](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) including breastfeeding promotion.\n\nThe following sections are quoted from GiveWell’s [explanation of the topic](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/breastfeeding-promotion):\n\n“The World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF recommend early initiation of breastfeeding, exclusive breastfeeding to 6 months, and partial breastfeeding to age 24 months to improve infant and maternal health, but the majority of infants are not fed according to these guidelines. Mothers may not breastfeed as long or as intensively as they would like due to a lack of skills and support, so various maternal counselling and support interventions promote breastfeeding behaviour change.”\n\nEffectiveness for the following reasons: “We believe there is reasonably strong evidence that breastfeeding support programs can lead to increases in rates of exclusive breastfeeding up to 6 months (compared to some or predominant breastfeeding) and breastfeeding duration, as recommended by WHO/UNICEF. Their impacts on exclusive breastfeeding may be larger in low-income countries. There is additional evidence that increasing breastfeeding reduces diarrhoea morbidity, which likely leads to reductions in childhood mortality from diarrhoea. It may also cause additional benefits that we have not yet vetted.”" }, { "id": 8407, "title": "Will retail and restaurant locations in the US decline by over 50% between 2020 and 2050?", "short_title": "Retail Locations Half of 2020 by 2050", "url_title": "Retail Locations Half of 2020 by 2050", "slug": "retail-locations-half-of-2020-by-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-26T20:54:02.306229Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-09T18:51:41.313293Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-08-01T20:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8407, "title": "Will retail and restaurant locations in the US decline by over 50% between 2020 and 2050?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T20:54:02.306229Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-08-01T20:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:53:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:53:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "E-commerce has grown in popularity and has caused many to speculate that physical shopping may become obsolete in the future. \n\nPhysical department store locations have faced a slow decline in recent years, with a sharper decline exacerbated by the pandemic in 2020 (see the section titled \"Number of department store locations in the US\" [here](https://www.vox.com/recode/21561046/death-rebirth-department-stores-retail-charts)).\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about physical retail in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>The majority of all current brick and mortar stores that are not located in scenic or tightly-packed downtowns will have closed. From stores that sell physical objects to chain restaurants, most of the physical locations you can go and shop will be gone. Instead, you will be able to get any product you would normally buy in a physical store delivered to you in under an hour, sometimes in mere minutes.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, at any time between 2021 and 2050, at least 4 of the following 7 business categories report 50% fewer physical establishments than reported in 2020:\n\n* Electronics and appliance stores\n* Grocery stores\n* Health and personal care stores\n* Clothing stores\n* Shoe stores\n* Department stores\n* Limited-service restaurants\n\nResolution will be according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/). The categories above are fully defined by [NAICS](https://www.naics.com/search/) in the fine print. If BLS no longer reports this data or changes their classification or methodology, Metaculus Admins may use a similar source of data or resolve ambiguously, at their discretion.", "fine_print": "BLS categorizes businesses using [NAICS](https://www.naics.com/search/). categories are listed with the total number of establishments in the US for 2020 (as of November 24, 2021). BLS series IDs are useful for retrieving data from [here](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate).\n\n\n| NAICS ID | description | 2020 number of establishments | BLS series ID |\n| -- | -- | -- | -- |\n| 4431 | Electronics and appliance stores | 43643 | ENUUS0002054431 |\n| 4451 | Grocery stores | 89545 | ENUUS0002054451 |\n| 4461 | Health and personal care stores | 112133 | ENUUS0002054461 |\n| 4481 | Clothing stores | 79968 | ENUUS0002054481 |\n| 4482 | Shoe stores | 15993 | ENUUS0002054482 |\n| 4522 | Department stores | 11567 | ENUUS0002054522 |\n| 722513 | Limited-service restaurants | 248416 | ENUUS000205722513 |\n\n\nNumbers of establishments in 2020 will be used as above, unless there is more accurate data known to Metaculus Admins.", "post_id": 8407, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760035891.037928, "end_time": 1787483106.821589, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2934228182 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760035891.037928, "end_time": 1787483106.821589, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2934228182 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.41449640920687364 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3025655374887752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.7287651222345652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.8117493037268142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.17610025324642237, 0.16998391322062245, 0.6525656508175627, 0.314326790937948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2605700609116872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4311057482128365, 0.0697448631166007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.546638995929566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289319.2076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289319.2076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7454272238104035, 0.2545727761895965 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "E-commerce has grown in popularity and has caused many to speculate that physical shopping may become obsolete in the future. \n\nPhysical department store locations have faced a slow decline in recent years, with a sharper decline exacerbated by the pandemic in 2020 (see the section titled \"Number of department store locations in the US\" [here](https://www.vox.com/recode/21561046/death-rebirth-department-stores-retail-charts)).\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about physical retail in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>The majority of all current brick and mortar stores that are not located in scenic or tightly-packed downtowns will have closed. From stores that sell physical objects to chain restaurants, most of the physical locations you can go and shop will be gone. Instead, you will be able to get any product you would normally buy in a physical store delivered to you in under an hour, sometimes in mere minutes." }, { "id": 8405, "title": "Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?", "short_title": "US tax on unrealized capital gains 2/1/2023", "url_title": "US tax on unrealized capital gains 2/1/2023", "slug": "us-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-212023", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-26T19:47:13.231988Z", "published_at": "2021-10-29T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.936917Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-29T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-29T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8405, "title": "Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T19:47:13.231988Z", "open_time": "2021-10-29T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T10:59:09.709503Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T10:59:09.709503Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From the [New York Times](https://archive.md/ofQjp),\n\n> After months of negotiations over President Biden’s big social spending bill, congressional Democrats looking for ways to pay for it have zeroed in on America’s billionaires.\n\n> To squeeze more money from the very wealthy, they are looking toward a change in the tax code that would reinvent how the government taxes investments — at least for the few hundred richest families — and lean against the accumulation of enormous fortunes in the future.\n\n> Details of the plan remain sparse as of Monday, and negotiations over the overall spending package are fluid. But the idea from the Senate Finance Committee chairman, Ron Wyden, is essentially to apply a more stringent version of capital gains taxes on the billionaire class. [...]\n\n> The Wyden plan would require the very wealthy — those with over $1 billion in assets or three straight years of income over $100 million — to pay taxes based on unrealized gains. At that tier of wealth, the logic goes, the usual considerations arguing against a so-called “mark-to-market” capital gains tax don’t apply. Those are sophisticated taxpayers with access to loans or other source of liquidity, for example, who hold assets that for the most part can reasonably be valued annually.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before February 1st 2023, a federal law is passed requiring at least some citizens in the United States to pay a tax on unrealized capital gains. Unrealized capital gains are defined as asset appreciation values that could in theory be \"realized\", or sold to yield a profit.\n\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8405, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643671631.027809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643671631.027809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10136012416663635 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4468566558248581, 0.06422210512350024, 0.5236874151830103, 1.0535958359057227, 0.43240699485347667, 0.8705052744070133, 1.2060163815911782, 2.6264983749584405, 0.0, 1.6064343419641414, 0.9965269669461019, 0.7960777997301206, 0.04795610324820406, 0.6568793733298921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4854536982631921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23476788075709235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5644485981864586, 0.4283333392464276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001873194738889857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016279767023399463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007981569988183952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.958836299300752, "coverage": 0.9970727317589826, "baseline_score": 80.01103698229521, "spot_peer_score": 1.439559410297394, "peer_archived_score": 7.958836299300752, "baseline_archived_score": 80.01103698229521, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.439559410297394 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643671631.046718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643671631.046718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9490389285278524, 0.0509610714721476 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From the [New York Times](https://archive.md/ofQjp),\n\n> After months of negotiations over President Biden’s big social spending bill, congressional Democrats looking for ways to pay for it have zeroed in on America’s billionaires.\n\n> To squeeze more money from the very wealthy, they are looking toward a change in the tax code that would reinvent how the government taxes investments — at least for the few hundred richest families — and lean against the accumulation of enormous fortunes in the future.\n\n> Details of the plan remain sparse as of Monday, and negotiations over the overall spending package are fluid. But the idea from the Senate Finance Committee chairman, Ron Wyden, is essentially to apply a more stringent version of capital gains taxes on the billionaire class. [...]\n\n> The Wyden plan would require the very wealthy — those with over $1 billion in assets or three straight years of income over $100 million — to pay taxes based on unrealized gains. At that tier of wealth, the logic goes, the usual considerations arguing against a so-called “mark-to-market” capital gains tax don’t apply. Those are sophisticated taxpayers with access to loans or other source of liquidity, for example, who hold assets that for the most part can reasonably be valued annually." }, { "id": 8404, "title": "By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?", "short_title": "25% of NYT Best Sellers Written by AI by 2050", "url_title": "25% of NYT Best Sellers Written by AI by 2050", "slug": "25-of-nyt-best-sellers-written-by-ai-by-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-26T19:32:14.034660Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T17:35:21.422339Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T20:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-02-01T20:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T08:38:39.033529Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8404, "title": "By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T19:32:14.034660Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-02-01T20:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T20:31:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T20:31:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3). It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\n\n>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, in any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25% or more of the books that top that year's New York Times' Best Sellers list in the category of adult fiction were written by AI. For example, the NYT top Best Sellers of 2020 are listed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Fiction_Best_Sellers_of_2020). If the NYT Best Sellers list is no longer available until 2050 or no longer ranks adult fiction books, Metaculus Admins may select a similar ranking of bestselling fiction, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n\nTo qualify as being written by AI, authorship of the book must be credited to an AI or more than 75% of the content must be created by AI, according to publisher's statements or credible media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8404, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762796111.249208, "end_time": 1770854830.260524, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762796111.249208, "end_time": 1770854830.260524, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3718620414965872 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0008235662727110964, 0.000490825993588668, 0.24002476122548982, 0.0, 0.25434718806036427, 0.0, 0.07297807791182134, 0.0004695510482524325, 1.1232272389077975, 0.9573817420563264, 0.0, 0.01462574187987346, 5.48582156804221e-05, 0.6506072297637825, 2.422048522339657, 0.6961489248007987, 0.10807042723886441, 0.022962623177838294, 0.0, 2.8119043449958285, 0.001303898748476781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006413156336063901, 1.6131939966997892, 0.022175356522766372, 0.020723168944003185, 0.00012478676181919342, 0.0, 0.18533687828373469, 0.12068896486740634, 0.4637902775861975, 1.1214495945439895, 0.0, 0.03376200406373862, 0.0, 0.003918133819501843, 0.0, 0.06459031603024536, 1.0357680437169776, 0.0, 0.09663853125608844, 0.0, 0.26567614187711586, 1.1436549915125827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003492254378812131, 0.1293223834298919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008051894103333701, 0.0009281367527084389, 0.29801603397944676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17667566640924204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17584731659263814, 0.47860307496106197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28334816253911327, 0.0, 0.07694086628622841, 0.0, 0.5516583543549273, 0.06849678870688732, 0.0, 0.047853099470906685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7352678135412258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042310736294626096, 0.0, 0.1635415193121335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3948134045118915, 0.0, 0.9969659417670209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5516022179342074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2003351210041213 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288860.597028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288860.597028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7715388384136637, 0.22846116158633634 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 330, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3). It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\n\n>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]" }, { "id": 8403, "title": "By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?", "short_title": "25% Top 100 Songs Made By AI by 2050", "url_title": "25% Top 100 Songs Made By AI by 2050", "slug": "25-top-100-songs-made-by-ai-by-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-26T19:18:37.041645Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T18:56:40.330656Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T20:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-02-01T20:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T08:38:39.033529Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8403, "title": "By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T19:18:37.041645Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-02-01T20:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T20:16:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T20:16:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\n\n>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, for any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25 or more of the [Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs](https://www.billboard.com/charts/year-end/hot-100-songs) are created primarily by AI. \"Created Primarily by AI\" for the purpose of this question will mean having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing. Evidence for an AI's involvement can be provided by the song credits, statements by producers or publishers, and/or reputable media reports. If the Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs list does not exist through 2049, Metaculus Admins may select and announce a replacement source, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8403, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762800989.572713, "end_time": 1763964271.748241, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762800989.572713, "end_time": 1763964271.748241, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6719400393837721 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.002744236364250548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004599875297244844, 0.5451197344970368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09523145321120603, 0.17175714249032537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.025602284760033, 0.11755141015135048, 0.0, 0.30254219701717905, 0.0, 0.2825516661653255, 0.0, 0.001821789957966981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4801032618269796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39525243610674604, 0.0039108374539705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03867734993865754, 0.2956883402414245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1848243905632059, 0.5812240187124054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007165678900495897, 0.4219544127463164, 2.3197702426818276, 0.3245438969931091, 0.6116221230896117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06128059626892955, 0.013550076875576434, 0.0, 0.6986181450882394, 0.0, 1.1942100323975298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8814150138029975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0557348588410026, 0.0, 0.019035910633072858, 0.0032942504413227035, 0.0, 0.6570695930046578, 0.0, 0.39727473736027696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5804197412804394, 2.816964940572638 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289106.540759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289106.540759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4949054467746248, 0.5050945532253752 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 207, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\n\n>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]" }, { "id": 8399, "title": "Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?", "short_title": "10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035?", "url_title": "10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035?", "slug": "10-or-more-nuclear-armed-states-by-2035", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-26T10:04:27.817132Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T21:32:28.104958Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8399, "title": "Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T10:04:27.817132Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of 2021, [nine states possess nuclear weapons](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-notebook/): Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, [in 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction). \n\nA few other states [possessed nuclear weapons in the past but no longer do](https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/05/08/526078459/giving-up-nuclear-weapons-its-rare-but-its-happened): in particular, some former Soviet republics gave up their inherited nuclear weapons after the Soviet Union collapsed, and South Africa built nuclear weapons but then dismantled them in 1991. \n\nOther states have [secretly explored nuclear weapon development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Unsanctioned_nuclear_activity) or have been found in violation of [the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons). Some countries have more [Breakout Capability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Breakout_capability) than others-- both [Japan](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11302/the-realist-prism-iran-nuclear-standoff-obscures-broader-proliferation-challenges) and [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran) have sufficient uranium and other resources to quickly develop nuclear weapons.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2035, at least 3 credible sources report that at least 10 countries have a deployable nuclear weapon.", "fine_print": "For this question to resolve positively, it needs not be the case that there are 10 or more nuclear-armed states at the start of 2035 specifically; if one or more nuclear-armed states give up nuclear weapons by 2035, but at some point before 2035 there were at least 10 states with deployable nuclear weapons, this question would resolve positively. \n\nIf a current nuclear-armed state fractures into multiple states and more than one of the successor states then possess deployable weapons, each of those states will count as separate nuclear-armed states for the purposes of this question. (The reason for this is that the successor states will likely have substantially different geopolitical relationships and interests.)", "post_id": 8399, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761385959.232373, "end_time": 1764339400.439213, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761385959.232373, "end_time": 1764339400.439213, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7529762487962933 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287930.146958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287930.146958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4443424059753944, 0.5556575940246056 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 163, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of 2021, [nine states possess nuclear weapons](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-notebook/): Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, [in 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction). \n\nA few other states [possessed nuclear weapons in the past but no longer do](https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/05/08/526078459/giving-up-nuclear-weapons-its-rare-but-its-happened): in particular, some former Soviet republics gave up their inherited nuclear weapons after the Soviet Union collapsed, and South Africa built nuclear weapons but then dismantled them in 1991. \n\nOther states have [secretly explored nuclear weapon development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Unsanctioned_nuclear_activity) or have been found in violation of [the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons). Some countries have more [Breakout Capability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Breakout_capability) than others-- both [Japan](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11302/the-realist-prism-iran-nuclear-standoff-obscures-broader-proliferation-challenges) and [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran) have sufficient uranium and other resources to quickly develop nuclear weapons." }, { "id": 8398, "title": "Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?", "short_title": "100+ Nuke Detonations Cause 100M+ Deaths", "url_title": "100+ Nuke Detonations Cause 100M+ Deaths", "slug": "100-nuke-detonations-cause-100m-deaths", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-26T10:00:42.725413Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.762591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8398, "title": "Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T10:00:42.725413Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n----\n\nDecisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n1. At any point before January 1, 2100, a nuclear conflict begins in which there are more than 100 nuclear weapon detonations.\n\n2. For the first such conflict, there are at least 100 million deaths globally in the period between the first nuclear detonation and 1 month after the final detonation of the conflict.\n\nThis question is conditional on there being at least one nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations before 2100. That is, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if that condition isn't met.\n\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\n\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.", "fine_print": "This question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 100 million fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8398, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742480878.353179, "end_time": null, 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0.0, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8477501283232587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.226909780019503 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288930.715591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288930.715591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4574407111452342, 0.5425592888547658 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n----\n\nDecisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter." }, { "id": 8397, "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?", "short_title": ">1,000 Detonations Cause Population <400M", "url_title": ">1,000 Detonations Cause Population <400M", "slug": "1000-detonations-cause-population-400m", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:56:58.468069Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T16:32:08.702418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8397, "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:56:58.468069Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n* [Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n\n* [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n\n* [Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\n\n----\n\nFor simplicity, we will consider two detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if they occur within 30 days of each other (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, 50 years after the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (before January 1, 2100) which involves >1,000 offensive nuclear detonations, humanity's population is below 400 million. This would include, but is not limited to, scenarios in which humanity is extinct. The resolution of this question is not affected by whether, 50 years after the final detonation, the population is stable, rising, or falling; it is only affected by whether it is below 400 million.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations by January 1, 2100.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" will be considered members of a species who could typically reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance. In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain >400 million beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as population collapses.", "fine_print": "No attempt will be made to distinguish the effects of the nuclear conflict from the effects of other events. That is, even if it's mere coincidence that the population declines and/or that it remains low following the nuclear conflict, the question can still resolve positively.\n\nWe request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus scores may be unlikely to be tracked or cared about if this question resolves positively, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.", "post_id": 8397, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761496317.972983, "end_time": 1882197032.254049, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761496317.972983, "end_time": 1882197032.254049, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.3607408943562485 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 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"interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288827.441136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7987570668924485, 0.20124293310755145 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n* [Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n\n* [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n\n* [Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\n\n----\n\nFor simplicity, we will consider two detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if they occur within 30 days of each other (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.)." }, { "id": 8396, "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?", "short_title": ">1,000 Detonations Cause Extinction", "url_title": ">1,000 Detonations Cause Extinction", "slug": "1000-detonations-cause-extinction", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:51:46.146135Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T05:40:45.839455Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8396, "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:51:46.146135Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n* [Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n\n* [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n\n* [Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\n\n----\n\nAs stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\n>\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the human population falls to zero within 50 years of the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2100) which involves >1,000 offensive nuclear detonations. For simplicity, we will consider detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of another detonation (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations by January 1, 2100.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are members of a species most of whose members could at some point in their lives reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance (even if young or old members of the species could not do so or a minority of members of the species could never do so). In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as \"extinction\".", "fine_print": "This question can resolve positively even if the nuclear conflict wasn't the sole cause, a major cause, or even a contributing factor in the eventual extinction event. (This is because it would be useful for this question to capture instances in which the nuclear conflict merely contributed to rather than solely or directly causing extinction, but it seems hard to capture that neatly except via this more expansive resolution criteria.)", "post_id": 8396, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760593235.088365, "end_time": 1792129234.326, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760593235.088365, "end_time": 1792129234.326, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.12982531056163468 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288833.427014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288833.427014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9814731383945569, 0.018526861605443166 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 150, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n* [Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n\n* [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n\n* [Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\n\n----\n\nAs stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\n>\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"" }, { "id": 8395, "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?", "short_title": "100+ Nuke Detonations Cause 1M+ Deaths", "url_title": "100+ Nuke Detonations Cause 1M+ Deaths", "slug": "100-nuke-detonations-cause-1m-deaths", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:48:01.065006Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T16:32:10.679449Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8395, "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:48:01.065006Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n----\n\nDecisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n1. At any point before January 1, 2100, a nuclear conflict begins in which there are more than 100 nuclear weapon detonations.\n\n2. For any such conflict, there are more than 1 million deaths globally in the period between the first nuclear detonation and 10 years after the final detonation of the conflict.\n\nThis question is conditional on there being at least one nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations before 2100. That is, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the _first_ nuclear conflict after January 1, 2021 involves more than 1,000 detonations.)\n\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\n\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.", "fine_print": "If the nuclear conflict clearly causes more than 1 million fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on anything, this question will also resolve positively. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, because forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8395, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761496320.381825, "end_time": 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0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.021585930219435643, 1.1405470336200478, 0.0, 5.9121037452325185 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287879.845986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287879.845986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.11048343901336255, 0.8895165609866375 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n----\n\nDecisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter." }, { "id": 8394, "title": "If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?", "short_title": "HEMP Attacks Causing >10 Million Fatalities", "url_title": "HEMP Attacks Causing >10 Million Fatalities", "slug": "hemp-attacks-causing-10-million-fatalities", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:36:07.834522Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:21:01.179083Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8394, "title": "If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:36:07.834522Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\n>\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). [...] EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.\"\n\nOther questions in this tournament asks [how _likely_ a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/) and _how many_ such attacks would occur if at least one does (link will be added soon). This question is about _how much harm_ would occur if one or more HEMP attacks occur. For further context on this question, see [Nuclear risk research idea: Nuclear EMPs](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [[rough notes] Harms from nuclear conflict via EMPs, fallout, or ozone depletion](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one High-altitude Electromagnetic Pulse attack occurs before January 1, 2030 and the total fatalities caused by all HEMP attacks by January 1, 2030 is above 10 million, according to at least 3 estimates from credible sources by January 31, 2030. Fatalities from all HEMP attacks in this time period will be counted towards positive resolution, even if they are from separate countries and separate conflicts. \n\nThe question resolves negatively if at least one HEMP attack occurs by 2030 but there aren't at least 3 credible sources which estimate the total fatalities caused to be above 10 million. \n\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no HEMP attack occurs by 2030, or if fewer than 3 credible sources provide any estimates about the number of fatalities from HEMP attacks by 2030.\n\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n\n* a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or\n\n* a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation", "fine_print": "No attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources regarding what fatalities should be considered \"caused\" by the HEMP attack(s). This could include fatalities caused by the initial blast of a HEMP attack, the radioactive fallout, or by the infrastructure disruption caused by the HEMP. But estimates of fatalities caused by other bombs or military strikes in the same time place will not be counted as estimates of fatalities caused by the HEMP attack(s). \n\nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count as HEMP attacks, even if they cause significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. \"HEMPs for testing purposes\" are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports.", "post_id": 8394, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758987545.66033, "end_time": 1764498740.991154, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758987545.66033, "end_time": 1764498740.991154, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.2622802289237231 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7757792944403119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 1.0385946353591613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2416419884454097, 0.5831190934122544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2429309653049421, 1.813484974370005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0503027525030009, 0.0, 0.43131426209606216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287323.269407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287323.269407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7514357879519331, 0.24856421204806695 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\n>\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). [...] EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.\"\n\nOther questions in this tournament asks [how _likely_ a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/) and _how many_ such attacks would occur if at least one does (link will be added soon). This question is about _how much harm_ would occur if one or more HEMP attacks occur. For further context on this question, see [Nuclear risk research idea: Nuclear EMPs](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [[rough notes] Harms from nuclear conflict via EMPs, fallout, or ozone depletion](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit)." }, { "id": 8393, "title": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?", "short_title": "New START renewed until February 2027", "url_title": "New START renewed until February 2027", "slug": "new-start-renewed-until-february-2027", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:29:49.275158Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T19:59:58.010905Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-04T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-05T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8393, "title": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:29:49.275158Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-05T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-04T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-04T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until February 5, 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if either of the following conditions occur:\n\n1. There are credible reports such as by the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements) of New START being extended to at least February 5, 2027. \n\n2. There are credible reports of New START being replaced by another nuclear arms control agreement that will last until at least February 5, 2027 and that US officials, Russian officials, and other credible sources describe as a successor to New START.", "fine_print": "It is not necessary that the renewed or replacement treaty has very similar terms. But note that the second condition would not be met if one or two of the three relevant groups (US officials, Russian officials, or other credible sources) do _not_ describe the treaty as a successor to New START.", "post_id": 8393, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763631524.386729, "end_time": 1767243844.983966, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763631524.386729, "end_time": 1767243844.983966, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.44069707540548186 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.596589295778137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2064362578314156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7088250103212406, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288815.854302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288815.854302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7238514136818146, 0.27614858631818545 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 173, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until February 5, 2026." }, { "id": 8392, "title": "If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?", "short_title": "Nuclear Attacks Reducing Global Cereal Yields", "url_title": "Nuclear Attacks Reducing Global Cereal Yields", "slug": "nuclear-attacks-reducing-global-cereal-yields", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:24:57.861520Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:35:11.646281Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8392, "title": "If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:24:57.861520Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nPotentially useful resources:\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n* [[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n* [Our World in Data's charts of cereal yields](https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields) from 1961 to 2018 for various countries and the world as a whole.", "resolution_criteria": "This question is conditional on there being 100 or more offensive nuclear detonations in a single conflict before January 1, 2050. That is, if that condition isn't met, this question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n1. The above condition is met, and\n\n2. Average global cereal yields over the 5 years following the end of the nuclear conflict that met that above condition are at least 5% lower than the average in the 5 years preceding the nuclear conflict.\n\nCrop yield data will be taken from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (or another credible organization).\n\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.", "fine_print": "Note that crop yields are currently rising over time, so a 5% decline in the 5 years following the conflict compared to the 5 years before the conflict corresponds to a >5% decline compared to what would be expected under normal conditions - i.e., a >5% decline compared to what would occur if we extrapolated the current trend forwards.\n\nIf a relevant source gives a relevant estimate but in the form of a range, this question can resolve positively as long as the midpoint of the range is 5% or higher.\n\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to discern whether the decline in cereal yields was caused by the nuclear detonations. \n\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over territory owned by the US\".\n\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than this amount of decline in yields but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8392, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759487798.56444, "end_time": 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1.8559776074761225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.17305452335961788, 1.0629325328192984 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287271.278179, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287271.278179, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19192905873001243, 0.8080709412699876 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nPotentially useful resources:\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n* [[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n* [Our World in Data's charts of cereal yields](https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields) from 1961 to 2018 for various countries and the world as a whole." }, { "id": 8391, "title": "If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?", "short_title": "Nuclear Conflict During Summer Season by 2030", "url_title": "Nuclear Conflict During Summer Season by 2030", "slug": "nuclear-conflict-during-summer-season-by-2030", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:20:08.951849Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.424226Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8391, "title": "If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?", "created_at": "2021-10-26T09:20:08.951849Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-09-30T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-09-30T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The timing of nuclear conflict is important for estimating the likelihood and magnitude of [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects. Nuclear winter is a proposed scenario where a lot of smoke and dust particles rise into the stratosphere, where they can block sunlight. This can be caused by massive fires and firestorms that follow the nuclear explosions, or even by large enough nuclear explosions themselves. This lofting of smoke may be facilitated by the more intense sunlight of summer, meaning nuclear conflicts that occur in other seasons may cause less cooling. \n\nPotentially useful resources:\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n* [[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the first nuclear strike in the first nuclear conflict between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030 happens between June 1 and September 30 inclusive (of any year). \n\nThis question will resolve as **ambiguous** if there is no nuclear conflict in this period.\n\n“Nuclear conflict” will be defined as a situation in which there is state use of at least one nuclear weapon against another actor’s territory and/or forces. This state use could be deliberate, inadvertent, accidental, or unauthorised but by an actor in the state’s chain of command (see fine print for definitions). This excludes non-state use of nuclear weapons.", "fine_print": "In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8391, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761941708.747359, "end_time": 1765515939.378767, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2617028690398061 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761941708.747359, "end_time": 1765515939.378767, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2617028690398061 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.2953800955363346 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41773359555817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22900802253318142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5942221862478604, 0.5501886904627751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49272677983989005, 1.355769313773018, 1.4245813737743676, 2.0795084434983595, 0.10174999287130515, 1.0396776859510384, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.848390712889754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1011216878911307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45875031368367064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288626.491062, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288626.491062, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8247693788307704, 0.17523062116922958 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The timing of nuclear conflict is important for estimating the likelihood and magnitude of [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects. Nuclear winter is a proposed scenario where a lot of smoke and dust particles rise into the stratosphere, where they can block sunlight. This can be caused by massive fires and firestorms that follow the nuclear explosions, or even by large enough nuclear explosions themselves. This lofting of smoke may be facilitated by the more intense sunlight of summer, meaning nuclear conflicts that occur in other seasons may cause less cooling. \n\nPotentially useful resources:\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n* [[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)" }, { "id": 8383, "title": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?", "short_title": "Nuclear Attacks Cause Global Temperature Drop", "url_title": "Nuclear Attacks Cause Global Temperature Drop", "slug": "nuclear-attacks-cause-global-temperature-drop", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-25T16:41:31.563273Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T05:40:44.165905Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8383, "title": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?", "created_at": "2021-10-25T16:41:31.563273Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange\n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nPotentially useful resources:\n\n* [The relationship between the smoke generated and the climate](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_relationship_between_the_smoke_generated_and_the_climate)\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n* [Global temperature record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record) on Wikipedia", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the following two criteria are met:\n\n1. There is a nuclear conflict with >100 offensive nuclear detonations by January 1, 2030 \n\n2. Average global temperature during the 3 years following the conflict is at least 3°C lower than the average global temperature during the 3 years prior to the conflict.\n\nThis question will resolve as **ambiguous** if there is no nuclear conflict with >100 offensive nuclear detonations by January 1, 2030.", "fine_print": "This question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than this amount of decline in temperature but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8383, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761504175.887255, "end_time": 1764499031.710958, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761504175.887255, "end_time": 1764499031.710958, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2500993502233168 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9580309923082057, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2085885759349987, 0.0, 2.3403071630843306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0739598226390272, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08678437211087955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287901.717652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287901.717652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8965050442166024, 0.10349495578339762 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange\n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nPotentially useful resources:\n\n* [The relationship between the smoke generated and the climate](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_relationship_between_the_smoke_generated_and_the_climate)\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n* [Global temperature record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record) on Wikipedia" }, { "id": 8382, "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?", "short_title": ">1,000 Nuke Detonations Cause 4B Deaths", "url_title": ">1,000 Nuke Detonations Cause 4B Deaths", "slug": "1000-nuke-detonations-cause-4b-deaths", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-25T16:29:16.142955Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T19:14:05.463428Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8382, "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?", "created_at": "2021-10-25T16:29:16.142955Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n----\n\nDecisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n1. At any point before January 1, 2100, a nuclear conflict begins in which there are more than 1,000 nuclear weapon detonations.\n\n2. For any such conflict, there are more than 4 billion deaths globally in the period between the first nuclear detonation and 10 years after the final detonation of the conflict.\n\nThis question is conditional on there being at least one nuclear conflict involving more than one thousand offensive nuclear detonations before 2100. That is, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the _first_ nuclear conflict after January 1, 2021 involves more than 1,000 detonations.)\n\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\n\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.", "fine_print": "This question will also resolve positively if any nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 4 billion fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8382, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762110835.215869, "end_time": 1882197519.109192, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762110835.215869, "end_time": 1882197519.109192, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.5335279736810777 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7228487183092426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03598851855808508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3488027451331692, 0.0, 0.04232921962320499, 0.0, 0.8064866579275349, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.0978269360296038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007369969155267514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19512018820526095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0595212542612688, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15685721197324565, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49645687632875796, 0.07555473386203065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33200177484482973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6646627317794116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2962357109626201, 0.0, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n----\n\nDecisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter." }, { "id": 8381, "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?", "short_title": "100+ Nuke Detonations Cause 1B Deaths", "url_title": "100+ Nuke Detonations Cause 1B Deaths", "slug": "100-nuke-detonations-cause-1b-deaths", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-25T16:20:48.369637Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:55:42.156127Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8381, "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?", "created_at": "2021-10-25T16:20:48.369637Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n----\n\nDecisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\n\n***If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause more than 1 billion fatalities within 10 years?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n1. At any point before January 1, 2100, a nuclear conflict begins in which there are more than 100 nuclear weapon detonations.\n\n2. For any such conflict, there are more than 1 billion deaths globally in the period between the first nuclear detonation and 10 years after the final detonation of the conflict.\n\nThis question is conditional on there being at least one nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations before 2100. That is, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the _first_ nuclear conflict after January 1, 2021 involves more than 100 detonations.)\n\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\n\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\n\n[fine-print]\nThis question will also resolve positively if a nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 1 billion fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict. \n\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8381, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 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"name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\n\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if, by January 1, 2030, there are reports of such a test by reputable sources", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8380, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758987543.983082, "end_time": 1764499008.684904, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758987543.983082, "end_time": 1764499008.684904, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.05037209645873281 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.999419430225497, 1.4682537143091956, 0.0, 2.320800409840394, 0.0, 2.4754761841712076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.03911858530021452, 0.1324529992949671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.05892591724387544, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287246.434081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287246.434081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9954453964512454, 0.00455460354875458 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\n\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk." }, { "id": 8379, "title": "Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?", "short_title": "Nuclear Weapon Yield Over 30 MT by 2030", "url_title": "Nuclear Weapon Yield Over 30 MT by 2030", "slug": "nuclear-weapon-yield-over-30-mt-by-2030", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-25T16:05:11.125124Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T16:53:51.740637Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8379, "title": "Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-10-25T16:05:11.125124Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\n\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, at any time between November 1, 2021 and January 1, 2030, the following two conditions are met:\n\n1. At least two credible sources (major governments, scientific associations, or intelligence services) claim that a country most likely has a nuclear weapon with a yield above 30 MT. This weapon may be stockpiled or deployed (but not in development, for example).\n\n2. No two independent credible sources with ability to evaluate such a claim contest / deny this claim. Media reports will be counted only to the extent that they reference to such a credible source; news organizations themselves cannot be expected to have means of evaluating such a claim on their own. In the case that there is significant disagreement between these claims Metaculus Admins may, at their discretion, make a judgement about the credibility of these claims, or resolve ambiguously.\n\nThe Russian Poseidon/Status-6 device, for example, could resolve this question positively if it met these two conditions.\n\nThis question can resolve positively even if the country has only one such weapon, and even if it has such a weapon sometime before 2030 but no longer has such a weapon on January 1, 2030 (e.g., if it test detonates, offensively detonates, or dismantles the weapon before then)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8379, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761497621.11996, "end_time": 1764478203.885287, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.089 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761497621.11996, "end_time": 1764478203.885287, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.089 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.058119617342839915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3325315572279212, 0.9000043114019418, 1.7797675634933927, 1.2699322600469583, 0.0, 2.2489389556269463, 0.7095347889677784, 0.0, 1.0868056800817743, 0.0, 1.5663631831686917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1181191976010674, 0.13316053745354073, 0.0, 0.03493560780589553, 0.17249978086131545, 0.0, 0.1045235772690511, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028709986438327752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290136.935439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290136.935439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9923216490280127, 0.007678350971987366 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 131, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\n\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk." }, { "id": 8378, "title": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?", "short_title": "Total Nuclear Yield >10,000 MT by 2029", "url_title": "Total Nuclear Yield >10,000 MT by 2029", "slug": "total-nuclear-yield-10000-mt-by-2029", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-25T16:01:10.883196Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T17:44:30.873057Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", 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"id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8378, "title": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?", "created_at": "2021-10-25T16:01:10.883196Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\n\nThe total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed. \n\nStockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution will be based on the most recent estimates published in 2029 by reputable sources such as the [Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) If no reputable sources explicitly estimate the total yield across all states' nuclear stockpiles in 2029, resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins, who will:\n\n* ask an author of relevant publications (e.g., [Matt Korda](https://fas.org/expert/matt-korda/)) for an estimate, and/or \n\n* make an estimate based on what reputable sources say about things like the number of weapons of various types and the yield of those weapons, or the numbers and median yields of each states' nuclear stockpile", "fine_print": "One example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which stockpiles include a total of more than 20,000 warheads and their mean yield is 500kt.", "post_id": 8378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760723060.277444, "end_time": 1764498234.252978, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760723060.277444, "end_time": 1764498234.252978, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.32599688790500636 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288001.085084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288001.085084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9206642958318457, 0.07933570416815429 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\n\nThe total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed. \n\nStockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution." } ] }
