Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4620
{ "count": 6393, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4640", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4600", "results": [ { "id": 8378, "title": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?", "short_title": "Total Nuclear Yield >10,000 MT by 2029", "url_title": "Total Nuclear Yield >10,000 MT by 2029", "slug": "total-nuclear-yield-10000-mt-by-2029", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-25T16:01:10.883196Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T17:44:30.873057Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8378, "title": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?", "created_at": "2021-10-25T16:01:10.883196Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\n\nThe total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed. \n\nStockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution will be based on the most recent estimates published in 2029 by reputable sources such as the [Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) If no reputable sources explicitly estimate the total yield across all states' nuclear stockpiles in 2029, resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins, who will:\n\n* ask an author of relevant publications (e.g., [Matt Korda](https://fas.org/expert/matt-korda/)) for an estimate, and/or \n\n* make an estimate based on what reputable sources say about things like the number of weapons of various types and the yield of those weapons, or the numbers and median yields of each states' nuclear stockpile", "fine_print": "One example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which stockpiles include a total of more than 20,000 warheads and their mean yield is 500kt.", "post_id": 8378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760723060.277444, "end_time": 1764498234.252978, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760723060.277444, "end_time": 1764498234.252978, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.32599688790500636 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288001.085084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288001.085084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9206642958318457, 0.07933570416815429 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\n\nThe total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed. \n\nStockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution." }, { "id": 8377, "title": "Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?", "short_title": "Total Nuclear Weapons >20,000 by 2030", "url_title": "Total Nuclear Weapons >20,000 by 2030", "slug": "total-nuclear-weapons-20000-by-2030", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-25T15:48:45.700352Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.952877Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8377, "title": "Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?", "created_at": "2021-10-25T15:48:45.700352Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\n\nAccording to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS):\n\n>\"The number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined significantly since the Cold War: down from a peak of approximately 70,300 in 1986 to an estimated 13,100 in early-2021. [...] the overwhelming portion of the reduction happened in the 1990s. [...] The pace of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to continue only because of dismantlement of retired weapons.\"\n\nWhether and by how much these numbers will rise or fall in the coming years has implications for the likelihood of nuclear and non-nuclear conflict and for how extreme the consequences of nuclear conflict could be. Those changes could also be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and manoeuvring and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk (such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) reported to be possessed across all countries on December 31, 2029 is greater than 20,000, according to the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on December 31, 2029. This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It does not include weapons possessed by non-state actors.\n\nResolution criteria will come from [FAS](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If they cease publishing such numbers before resolution, resolution will come from the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8377, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758987549.058283, "end_time": 1763952096.740533, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758987549.058283, "end_time": 1763952096.740533, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.2306915818399912 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 1.6072568715936828, 0.43131426209606216, 0.0, 1.7344611788413997, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.9583963223233507, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18834757486072856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287688.485366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287688.485366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9750742398445599, 0.024925760155440114 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\n\nAccording to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS):\n\n>\"The number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined significantly since the Cold War: down from a peak of approximately 70,300 in 1986 to an estimated 13,100 in early-2021. [...] the overwhelming portion of the reduction happened in the 1990s. [...] The pace of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to continue only because of dismantlement of retired weapons.\"\n\nWhether and by how much these numbers will rise or fall in the coming years has implications for the likelihood of nuclear and non-nuclear conflict and for how extreme the consequences of nuclear conflict could be. Those changes could also be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and manoeuvring and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk (such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons)." }, { "id": 8370, "title": "If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?", "short_title": "US Reaction to NATO Offensive Detonation", "url_title": "US Reaction to NATO Offensive Detonation", "slug": "us-reaction-to-nato-offensive-detonation", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-25T14:50:42.199080Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.059755Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8370, "title": "If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?", "created_at": "2021-10-25T14:50:42.199080Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/)\n\n----\n\nDifferent nuclear conflict scenarios would hugely differ in how harmful they'd be in the near term and how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it would be helpful to have a clearer sense of whether it's plausible that there'd be a nuclear conflict in which a NATO state detonates a nuclear weapon, but the US doesn't. We ask this question to inform ourselves of the overall risk and determine how best to intervene to reduce this risk.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of an offensive detonation by the US in the same conflict. The first detonation in this conflict must occur between November 1, 2021 and January 1, 2030.\n\nIf NATO ceases to exist by 2030, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were [part of NATO as of 2021](https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states/).\n\nDetonations will be considered part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\n\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.", "post_id": 8370, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758987541.298143, "end_time": 1763765268.523136, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.6481349029861696 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758987541.298143, "end_time": 1763765268.523136, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.6481349029861696 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3518650970138304, 0.6481349029861696 ], "means": [ 0.6324048755765727 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5584580948134545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648, 0.4620474888423056, 0.0, 0.6729562505414718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2861123377950632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287657.680032, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287657.680032, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6225526471995411, 0.3774473528004589 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/)\n\n----\n\nDifferent nuclear conflict scenarios would hugely differ in how harmful they'd be in the near term and how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it would be helpful to have a clearer sense of whether it's plausible that there'd be a nuclear conflict in which a NATO state detonates a nuclear weapon, but the US doesn't. We ask this question to inform ourselves of the overall risk and determine how best to intervene to reduce this risk." }, { "id": 8363, "title": "Will there be a China-India war by 2035?", "short_title": "China-India War by 2035", "url_title": "China-India War by 2035", "slug": "china-india-war-by-2035", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-25T13:37:24.590613Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T00:58:08.618750Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 168, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, 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"recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n\n* [Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a China-India war is defined as the China and India collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of India or between India and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur by January 1, 2035, this question will resolve negatively.\n\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\n\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8363, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762563478.212521, "end_time": 1765091651.933208, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762563478.212521, "end_time": 1765091651.933208, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.15509531746726124 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 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2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n\n* [Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)" }, { "id": 8362, "title": "Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "short_title": "US-China war before 2035?", "url_title": "US-China war before 2035?", "slug": "us-china-war-before-2035", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-25T13:11:06.785307Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T17:17:14.811910Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 575, 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8362, "title": "Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "created_at": "2021-10-25T13:11:06.785307Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve negatively.\n\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\n\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8362, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763572624.094522, "end_time": 1767140188.88401, "forecaster_count": 469, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763572624.094522, "end_time": 1767140188.88401, "forecaster_count": 469, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.23517065002892096 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.514644713465719, 0.41104553296989554, 0.9037480851462258, 0.8748385208773384, 0.15534199822434072, 3.9878038928734707, 0.8296658811880427, 1.2619905181998243, 1.797898757098603, 0.749877998279495, 3.4169889399181503, 0.5938918414544175, 1.7599449638451286, 0.09743766654246273, 0.9843378235527153, 2.9816649274121287, 0.3155499558254411, 0.16593620040883184, 1.9011580107699815, 0.012285145763787496, 2.1947295739386927, 0.9420272547354116, 0.0764293621363474, 0.021861397262667677, 0.4231338335494324, 2.6283622263893953, 0.08667437888473752, 0.03329125776854843, 0.4151899471271803, 0.0, 1.7398969463626068, 0.00035439493648511787, 0.4494394168666749, 0.5270059270187566, 0.03593278935317403, 1.0114353042248496, 0.00020276530317976101, 2.464228198596664e-05, 0.008666521756774872, 0.010682321938759341, 0.03644691695803702, 0.5443723667615554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05620932948453693, 2.172755279980271, 0.00012744441015079684, 0.0, 0.00010985279892121666, 0.0, 1.6076394008969808, 0.0034050471208960085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011317189077587092, 0.000273890057901118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.680439174360649e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028040962353844657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07598256753278568, 0.8315780969109449, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001620757549356451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1375053773277924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1090107516450738e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003811341764717168, 0.0, 0.1483783023413888, 0.0, 3.733486156797672e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.873586693039882 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288716.937835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 423, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288716.937835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 423, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9380357072821527, 0.061964292717847286 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 43, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1077, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea." }, { "id": 8360, "title": "Will Israel require salt to be iodized by 2030?", "short_title": "Israel Mandates Salt Iodization by 2030", "url_title": "Israel Mandates Salt Iodization by 2030", "slug": "israel-mandates-salt-iodization-by-2030", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-25T04:36:42.781881Z", "published_at": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.647675Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8360, "title": "Will Israel require salt to be iodized by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-10-25T04:36:42.781881Z", "open_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-03T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-03T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Unlike most other industrialized nations, Israel has never iodized its salt on a National level, and has a [widespread](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/thy.2017.0251) [iodine](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32357947/) [deficiency](https://ijhpr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13584-020-00382-5). Israel's [Health Ministry](https://health.gov.il/English/Topics/FoodAndNutrition/Nutrition/Adequate_nutrition/Pages/iodine.aspx) has a page on the iodine issue, and the iodine issue in Israel [has](https://www.jpost.com/Business-and-Innovation/Health-and-Science/Health-Ministry-lags-behind-Iran-and-PA-in-iodine-fortification-of-salt-497207) [received](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170327083438.htm) [substantial](https://www.haaretz.com/science-and-health/study-israelis-have-among-world-s-worst-iodine-deficiency-1.5453908) [media](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-kids-low-in-iodine-desalinated-water-use-blamed-1.9969026) [attention](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/health-and-science/iodine-free-salt-create-national-health-problem-485381).\n\nIodine is [well](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15292317/) [known](https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/how-adding-iodine-to-salt-boosted-americans-iq) [to increase IQ](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6145226/). It is known that iodine deprivation for children and pregnant mothers, the groups tested in Israel, hurts national IQ; the data on adults is [less clear.](https://www.gwern.net/Iodine) It has been [suggested](https://twitter.com/Go321D/status/988159032467701760) that iodine deficiency is hurting the cognitive performance of Israel pupils. \n\nThe iodine issue was first identified [in 2017](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/thy.2017.0251). Recently, the Health Ministry [has considered](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-kids-low-in-iodine-desalinated-water-use-blamed-1.9969026) iodizing salt.\n\nAround 120 countries have some form of mandating salt iodization ([Dasgupta, et al. 2008](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3509517/)) although the US, for example, does not.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Israel passes any policy requiring the majority of food-grade salt to be fortified with iodine before 2030-01-01, according to credible media reports or official government announcements", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8360, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703716187.394531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703716187.394531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7311130726580657 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39792653276223267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004029996917539339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08577160466054211, 0.009167091186681414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1314375106214734, 0.0, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.5899126581523781, 0.06818282742296448, 0.09578707349426503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9874157520604647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055116998908126075, 0.9300205187794963, 0.5915086375725582, 0.5674780436441383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5943251754957743, 0.0, 0.06050086571808722, 0.0, 0.3596551650381418, 1.530014905374573, 0.8642672445783581, 0.0, 0.21373070951070156, 0.0, 1.7613746727102495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.8385764446051258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3337872932516758, 0.0, 0.5468132678220224, 0.6902063238793004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008578.031179, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008578.031179, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30177808246936866, 0.6982219175306313 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 163, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Unlike most other industrialized nations, Israel has never iodized its salt on a National level, and has a [widespread](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/thy.2017.0251) [iodine](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32357947/) [deficiency](https://ijhpr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13584-020-00382-5). Israel's [Health Ministry](https://health.gov.il/English/Topics/FoodAndNutrition/Nutrition/Adequate_nutrition/Pages/iodine.aspx) has a page on the iodine issue, and the iodine issue in Israel [has](https://www.jpost.com/Business-and-Innovation/Health-and-Science/Health-Ministry-lags-behind-Iran-and-PA-in-iodine-fortification-of-salt-497207) [received](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170327083438.htm) [substantial](https://www.haaretz.com/science-and-health/study-israelis-have-among-world-s-worst-iodine-deficiency-1.5453908) [media](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-kids-low-in-iodine-desalinated-water-use-blamed-1.9969026) [attention](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/health-and-science/iodine-free-salt-create-national-health-problem-485381).\n\nIodine is [well](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15292317/) [known](https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/how-adding-iodine-to-salt-boosted-americans-iq) [to increase IQ](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6145226/). It is known that iodine deprivation for children and pregnant mothers, the groups tested in Israel, hurts national IQ; the data on adults is [less clear.](https://www.gwern.net/Iodine) It has been [suggested](https://twitter.com/Go321D/status/988159032467701760) that iodine deficiency is hurting the cognitive performance of Israel pupils. \n\nThe iodine issue was first identified [in 2017](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/thy.2017.0251). Recently, the Health Ministry [has considered](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-kids-low-in-iodine-desalinated-water-use-blamed-1.9969026) iodizing salt.\n\nAround 120 countries have some form of mandating salt iodization ([Dasgupta, et al. 2008](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3509517/)) although the US, for example, does not." }, { "id": 8356, "title": "Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?", "short_title": "Safer Leaks 10,000 T Oil before 2025", "url_title": "Safer Leaks 10,000 T Oil before 2025", "slug": "safer-leaks-10000-t-oil-before-2025", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-23T20:15:03.286607Z", "published_at": "2021-10-28T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.176778Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-28T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-11T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8356, "title": "Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-10-23T20:15:03.286607Z", "open_time": "2021-10-28T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-30T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-30T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-11T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-11T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 1988, the former supertanker _Esso Japan_ has been moored in the Red Sea off the Yemeni city of Al Hudaydah as the floating oil storage and offloading vessel _Safer_. Prior to the outbreak of the latest Yemeni civil war, it was used by the state-owned Yemen Oil and Gas Corporation to store crude extracted from Yemen's oil fields and trans-ship it for export. In this configuration it could store up to about 400,000 tonnes (3 MMbbl) of oil.\n\nIn 2015, the opposition Houthi movement captured Al Hudaydah and its port, and the _Safer_ fell into disuse and disrepair. In subsequent years, international concern has gradually increased about the ship and its derelict cargo of nearly 150,000 tonnes (1.14 MMbbl). A major spill could close port access for badly needed humanitarian aid, wipe out the fishing industry of a country already experiencing widespread malnutrition, and potentially disrupt global shipping lanes through the confined approaches to the Suez Canal.\n\nSafely removing the oil from the _Safer_ in its current condition ought to be simple mechanically. The problem is obtaining the necessary co-operation from the Houthis. Their troops garrison the vessel. There are fears of naval mines in the surrounding waters, and of booby-traps and scuttling charges aboard the _Safer_ itself.\n\nThe Houthi leadership has linked the resolution of the _Safer_ problem to broader diplomatic disputes. In 2020, Houthi leader Mohammed Ali al-Houthi mockingly tweeted, \"The life of the shrimps is more precious than the life of Yemeni citizens to the U.S. and its allies. ... Why is Safer more dangerous than the siege and the assault ... on the [Yemeni] people?\" In a later tweet, he added: \"If, God forbid, an environmental catastrophe occurred with the explosion of the Safer, the world will stop not for a week, as it did in Suez [during the Ever Given incident], but will stop for a long time.\" Some United Nations officials working on the problem are said to have privately concluded that the Houthis are playing chicken.\n\nAs Journalist Ed Caesar [has written](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/10/11/the-ship-that-became-a-bomb) in _The New Yorker_:\n\n> The _Safer_ is not sinking. It is not on fire. It has not exploded. It is not leaking oil. Yet the crew of the ship, and every informed observer, expects disaster to occur soon. But how soon? A year? Six months? Two weeks? Tomorrow? In May [2021], Ahmed Kulaib, the former executive at [the _Safer_'s operating company], told me that “it could be after five minutes.” Then five minutes passed, and then another... The crisis unfolds at the speed of rust.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the majority of credible media report that an oil spill associated with the FSO _Safer_ has released at least 10,000 metric tonnes of oil. This question will resolve negatively if this has not occurred by 2025-01-01.\n\nIn the case that estimates of the size of the oil spill vary, such that ranges span above and below 10,000 tonnes, the question may resolve ambiguous if sufficient clarifying evidence is unavailable", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8356, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691776557.364146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691776557.364146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.07647276120464813 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.2530814065965616, 2.3440186864689023, 0.978102846278112, 0.31167199523019246, 2.4497468630881793, 0.4107924183362857, 1.3385156229376234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16464710588842046, 1.382952373521277, 0.03255614494345784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31272834772598274, 0.0, 0.24826285979550225, 0.2123642000108881, 0.16675237628327297, 0.12963195239853512, 0.041436542674184174, 0.0, 0.018296883616726805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026479956599866433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7330599078485776, 0.0, 0.3356528321295896, 0.010489473131136438, 0.1809392623709519, 0.0, 0.006437720576519247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06724903333439175, 0.0, 0.0021507104137025754, 0.003560195227230837, 0.0, 0.013005539931145515, 0.06003519572979512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00597230694089575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001034323308801349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012156317823425493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.919950431925634, "coverage": 0.5614826520968681, "baseline_score": 21.59554660372925, "spot_peer_score": 8.105942473821747, "peer_archived_score": 5.919950431925634, "baseline_archived_score": 21.59554660372925, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.105942473821747 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691636322.450646, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691636322.450646, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9836751116858188, 0.01632488831418126 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 289, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 1988, the former supertanker _Esso Japan_ has been moored in the Red Sea off the Yemeni city of Al Hudaydah as the floating oil storage and offloading vessel _Safer_. Prior to the outbreak of the latest Yemeni civil war, it was used by the state-owned Yemen Oil and Gas Corporation to store crude extracted from Yemen's oil fields and trans-ship it for export. In this configuration it could store up to about 400,000 tonnes (3 MMbbl) of oil.\n\nIn 2015, the opposition Houthi movement captured Al Hudaydah and its port, and the _Safer_ fell into disuse and disrepair. In subsequent years, international concern has gradually increased about the ship and its derelict cargo of nearly 150,000 tonnes (1.14 MMbbl). A major spill could close port access for badly needed humanitarian aid, wipe out the fishing industry of a country already experiencing widespread malnutrition, and potentially disrupt global shipping lanes through the confined approaches to the Suez Canal.\n\nSafely removing the oil from the _Safer_ in its current condition ought to be simple mechanically. The problem is obtaining the necessary co-operation from the Houthis. Their troops garrison the vessel. There are fears of naval mines in the surrounding waters, and of booby-traps and scuttling charges aboard the _Safer_ itself.\n\nThe Houthi leadership has linked the resolution of the _Safer_ problem to broader diplomatic disputes. In 2020, Houthi leader Mohammed Ali al-Houthi mockingly tweeted, \"The life of the shrimps is more precious than the life of Yemeni citizens to the U.S. and its allies. ... Why is Safer more dangerous than the siege and the assault ... on the [Yemeni] people?\" In a later tweet, he added: \"If, God forbid, an environmental catastrophe occurred with the explosion of the Safer, the world will stop not for a week, as it did in Suez [during the Ever Given incident], but will stop for a long time.\" Some United Nations officials working on the problem are said to have privately concluded that the Houthis are playing chicken.\n\nAs Journalist Ed Caesar [has written](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/10/11/the-ship-that-became-a-bomb) in _The New Yorker_:\n\n> The _Safer_ is not sinking. It is not on fire. It has not exploded. It is not leaking oil. Yet the crew of the ship, and every informed observer, expects disaster to occur soon. But how soon? A year? Six months? Two weeks? Tomorrow? In May [2021], Ahmed Kulaib, the former executive at [the _Safer_'s operating company], told me that “it could be after five minutes.” Then five minutes passed, and then another... The crisis unfolds at the speed of rust." }, { "id": 8341, "title": "Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?", "short_title": "ACLU Argues Against Free Speech by 2024", "url_title": "ACLU Argues Against Free Speech by 2024", "slug": "aclu-argues-against-free-speech-by-2024", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-22T07:20:53.890064Z", "published_at": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.743843Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T15:06:43.354193Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T15:06:43.354193Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8341, "title": "Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?", "created_at": "2021-10-22T07:20:53.890064Z", "open_time": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-04T00:42:11.450739Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-04T00:42:11.450739Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Recently, some commenters [have](https://twitter.com/bariweiss/status/1303352142866993154) [criticized](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/opinion/rbg-aclu-abortion.html)\n [the ACLU](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/aclu-free-speech.html) for abandoning its historic stance in favor of free speech. On 2021-10-17, journalist Glenn Greenwald [predicted](https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1449740659036983308) this on twitter:\n\n>I really believe that within 18-24 months, ACLU - either a state affiliate or the national group - will argue in court that hate speech is outside 1st Amendment protections because it infringes the rights of marginalized groups.\n\nHistorically, laws regulating [hate speech in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hate_speech_in_the_United_States) have been found to violate the First Amendment protections of freedom of speech.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, any part of the ACLU (either a state affiliate or the national group) argues in any court that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment protections of Freedom of Speech. \"Arguing in Court\" here means providing direct aid in a court, not merely filing an amicus brief or making public statements. \"Hate Speech\" here will mean public speech which is predjudiced or discriminatory towards groups protected by the Fourteenth Amendment, including those defined by disability, race, ethnicity, nationality, national origin, gender, gender identity, or sex", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8341, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075420.580899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075420.580899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.029901915159989804 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.73620637533835, 5.027164442433575, 0.26722673256522084, 0.5571907468698041, 0.7776258580762121, 1.0065087318813761, 0.08063285503249965, 0.07172309125940111, 0.06805868377231805, 0.013290133035904001, 0.3958400702052304, 0.10559708250745295, 0.15990647812215078, 0.017363302970072207, 0.0, 0.10084622883228496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017751730710432278, 0.0, 0.0003140657611517779, 0.028639712574852334, 0.0, 0.049014995944548286, 0.011037504018186366, 0.0, 0.039143517677046796, 0.0, 0.3740662824468339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022855231852052916, 0.014297491888837536, 0.03354609775351218, 0.0011160507165339513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08685752086317833, 0.00015104103982854685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05671277750258922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015905270898504797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009400929107262819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013126840943606384 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.356102851237644, "coverage": 0.9998711667386135, "baseline_score": 87.70478825960105, "spot_peer_score": 2.4926732736014636, "peer_archived_score": 21.356102851237644, "baseline_archived_score": 87.70478825960105, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.4926732736014636 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075420.608529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075420.608529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 243, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Recently, some commenters [have](https://twitter.com/bariweiss/status/1303352142866993154) [criticized](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/opinion/rbg-aclu-abortion.html)\n [the ACLU](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/aclu-free-speech.html) for abandoning its historic stance in favor of free speech. On 2021-10-17, journalist Glenn Greenwald [predicted](https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1449740659036983308) this on twitter:\n\n>I really believe that within 18-24 months, ACLU - either a state affiliate or the national group - will argue in court that hate speech is outside 1st Amendment protections because it infringes the rights of marginalized groups.\n\nHistorically, laws regulating [hate speech in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hate_speech_in_the_United_States) have been found to violate the First Amendment protections of freedom of speech." }, { "id": 8334, "title": "Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?", "short_title": "US Office Construction Spending <$77B in 2022", "url_title": "US Office Construction Spending <$77B in 2022", "slug": "us-office-construction-spending-77b-in-2022", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-21T20:41:24.743512Z", "published_at": "2021-10-21T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.016951Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-21T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:05:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-21T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T15:06:43.354193Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T15:06:43.354193Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8334, "title": "Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?", "created_at": "2021-10-21T20:41:24.743512Z", "open_time": "2021-10-21T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-23T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-23T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-01T16:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on commercial real estate, particularly retail and hospitality locations, as well as urban office spaces. In April 2020, Gallup found that [69% of full-time employed americans were working from home](https://news.gallup.com/poll/348743/seven-u.s.-white-collar-workers-still-working-remotely.aspx). Some wonder whether this is the beginning of the end of major downtown office buildings, but [Andra Ghent, associate professor of finance at UNC, predicts](https://kenaninstitute.unc.edu/kenan-insight/how-will-covid-19-affect-commercial-real-estate/) \"it’s unlikely that increased technology adoption will affect prime office space in core downtown areas in major cities, where location brings important benefits through networking and access to skilled workers.\"\n\nIn March 2020 US Spending on office construction and maintenance reached an all-time high of $95 Billion, and then declined over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns to $80 Billion in December 2020. Office construction has gone through similar cycles in the past, reaching a low of $34 Billion in February 2011 following the 2008 financial crisis.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the average seasonally-adjusted annual office construction spending in 2022 is less than $77 Billion [according to the US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=VIP&startYear=2002&endYear=2021&categories=A02XX&dataType=T&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=).", "fine_print": "This question may resolve after 2023-07-01 to account for revisions by the US Census Bureau.", "post_id": 8334, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677618554.912995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677618554.912995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.011917842075035876 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.398168106181711, 9.505077414090046, 0.11917266062120754, 0.06878373183340487, 0.030573526996236923, 0.15387356355136703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03590856066739975, 0.0, 0.0822537239942791, 0.0016456269758058238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01732880491444991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003173881331863867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010221630333147167, 0.0, 0.12804351164029554, 0.0, 0.012292657807329105, 0.009127292350256002, 0.005563954662327432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0049235387378217576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011764396241594375, 0.0, 0.00923564745241291, 0.0, 0.0006599580203028017, 0.0019754520645241095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004802654549584282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008125528952671308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.410668459551642, "coverage": 0.9988635656199893, "baseline_score": 59.281036018028004, "spot_peer_score": 7.747591607751927, "peer_archived_score": 11.410668459551642, "baseline_archived_score": 59.281036018028004, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.747591607751927 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677618554.934183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677618554.934183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 263, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on commercial real estate, particularly retail and hospitality locations, as well as urban office spaces. In April 2020, Gallup found that [69% of full-time employed americans were working from home](https://news.gallup.com/poll/348743/seven-u.s.-white-collar-workers-still-working-remotely.aspx). Some wonder whether this is the beginning of the end of major downtown office buildings, but [Andra Ghent, associate professor of finance at UNC, predicts](https://kenaninstitute.unc.edu/kenan-insight/how-will-covid-19-affect-commercial-real-estate/) \"it’s unlikely that increased technology adoption will affect prime office space in core downtown areas in major cities, where location brings important benefits through networking and access to skilled workers.\"\n\nIn March 2020 US Spending on office construction and maintenance reached an all-time high of $95 Billion, and then declined over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns to $80 Billion in December 2020. Office construction has gone through similar cycles in the past, reaching a low of $34 Billion in February 2011 following the 2008 financial crisis." }, { "id": 8328, "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?", "short_title": "Non-profit organization develops first AGI", "url_title": "Non-profit organization develops first AGI", "slug": "non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-20T21:52:53.308738Z", "published_at": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T21:33:16.610041Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1313, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Progress Essay Contest", "slug": "ai-fortified-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/neural_net.png", "prize_pool": "6500.00", "start_date": "2022-02-08T13:02:52Z", "close_date": "2022-04-16T15:54:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the AI Progress Essay Contest! Metaculus aims to support accurate forecasting of and preparation for the impacts of transformative AI.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T15:27:38.564954Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T08:38:39.033529Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T08:38:39.033529Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8328, "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?", "created_at": "2021-10-20T21:52:53.308738Z", "open_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks _When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?_.\n\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\n\nFor example, OpenAI was initially founded as a non-profit organization \"so that they could focus its research on creating a positive long-term human impact.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#Motives))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a non-profit organization.\n\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8328, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760958221.303639, "end_time": 1764759423.939074, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760958221.303639, "end_time": 1764759423.939074, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.15836111337440986 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289529.034842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289529.034842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9674559725396165, 0.03254402746038349 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 173, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks _When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?_.\n\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. 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It aims to support decision making for all relevant actors in preparing for higher intelligence.\n\n### Here you can participate in this forecasting initiative!\n\nMake your own predictions to contribute to more accurate collective forecasts and join discussions on crucial developments and events.\n\nHave an interesting question you'd like to see forecasted? Reach out to me at [anestrandalvin@gmail.com](mailto:anestrandalvin@gmail.com) or message me on [Substack](https://substack.com/@alvinanestrand).\n\nIf you want to support this initiative and stay updated, subscribe to [the blog](forecastingaifutures.substack.com).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 2, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 140478, "username": "anestrandalvin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T08:38:39.033529Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8327, "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?", "created_at": "2021-10-20T21:47:55.186421Z", "open_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks _When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?_.\n\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. 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Reach out to me at [anestrandalvin@gmail.com](mailto:anestrandalvin@gmail.com) or message me on [Substack](https://substack.com/@alvinanestrand).\n\nIf you want to support this initiative and stay updated, subscribe to [the blog](forecastingaifutures.substack.com).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 2, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 140478, "username": "anestrandalvin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T08:38:39.033529Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T08:38:39.033529Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8325, "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?", "created_at": "2021-10-20T21:39:03.901120Z", "open_time": "2021-10-31T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-02T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-02T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks _When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?_.\n\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. 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For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \n\n**Sister questions**\n\n- [Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/)\n- [University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8325, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742392657.091618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742392657.091618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1435405091124831 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8873410162862754, 1.4078709258240893, 0.24023209194123907, 0.2816169403514904, 0.506524249030845, 0.8353215637810844, 0.9920294302787478, 0.0, 0.6949662297554562, 0.0, 2.3209923505317276, 0.0, 0.6530185301365727, 0.0, 0.9530576871124476, 1.1208010613993453, 0.42541794340393846, 0.06270616419322582, 0.3065716092073788, 0.7860011674065981, 0.06735315688192478, 0.24110776125769268, 0.0, 0.039557603597328135, 0.9964156233251742, 0.12643872432888306, 0.0, 0.008061960629922116, 0.021416918649247395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7436557347186822, 0.0, 0.03350632592697761, 0.13225471777230066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060389508477850925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010533797021803945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012381970298981316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016186711029794957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009010622518374086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04351510538011948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005954758208044591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4088385384951828 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288290.247344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288290.247344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9424710521179634, 0.05752894788203656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 188, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks _When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?_.\n\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. 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Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a for-profit corporation.\n\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \n\n**Sister questions**\n\n- [Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/)\n- [University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8324, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763083662.381342, "end_time": 1764759402.37631, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763083662.381342, "end_time": 1764759402.37631, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12, 0.88 ], "means": [ 0.8172571242407439 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005625232093766742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8096275095652576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22829097309954705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5854016412495993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4397301097993673, 0.06830738353597367, 0.0008334788163558859, 0.0, 0.007836395920405472, 0.47650205264829143, 0.0, 0.05041124454433137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026952532120836488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06659891058157216, 0.0, 1.9142754444653276, 0.0, 0.01429437190818957, 0.015697917683711572, 0.03416944945506715, 0.2492976904298747, 0.1165506870664221, 0.0, 1.4787557982114907, 0.043444640796242134, 1.8820666588874895, 0.03709051450527684, 0.022486742455525503, 0.4151406185251411, 0.7623863279767996, 3.681045849605653, 1.4000227911941305, 0.46560035189482807, 0.0, 0.0, 1.285264207732969, 0.0, 0.029030972137388197, 0.3485022334916162, 0.6220006889935791 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287556.244152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287556.244152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.24814910373125576, 0.7518508962687442 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 275, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks _When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?_.\n\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations." }, { "id": 8322, "title": "Will unemployment be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?", "short_title": "Forecasting Inflation Using Unemployment", "url_title": "Forecasting Inflation Using Unemployment", "slug": "forecasting-inflation-using-unemployment", "author_id": 116023, "author_username": "ege_erdil", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-20T17:25:35.379518Z", "published_at": "2021-10-29T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.130837Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-29T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-29T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8322, "title": "Will unemployment be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?", "created_at": "2021-10-20T17:25:35.379518Z", "open_time": "2021-10-29T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-31T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Phillips curves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve) are a class of models which propose connections between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in an economy. If there is some such relationship, we might expect that knowing both today's unemployment rate and last year's inflation rate allows us to forecast this year's inflation rate better than just relying on last year's inflation rate alone. \n\nTo this end, let \\( \\pi_t, u_t \\) denote the inflation rate and the unemployment rate for the United States in the year \\( t \\) respectively. We can then run the following ordinary least squared regressions from the year \\( 2022 \\) to the year \\( 2031 \\) inclusive:\n\n\\[ (1)\\, \\, \\pi_t = \\alpha + \\beta \\pi_{t-1} + \\varepsilon_t \\]\n\\[ (2)\\, \\, \\pi_t = \\alpha + \\beta_1 \\pi_{t-1} + \\beta_2 u_t + \\varepsilon_t \\]\n\nThe [adjusted coefficient of determination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination#Adjusted_R2) is a measure of how much of the variance in the dependent variable is explained by the regression that corrects for the number of independent variables so as to control for the effect of overfitting. Ideally, the adjusted coefficient of determination only goes up when we add an additional independent variable to a regression if the additional variable is actually useful in predicting the dependent variable.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the adjusted coefficient of determination of the second regression strictly exceeds that of the first regression, and resolves negatively otherwise. Here, \\( \\pi_t \\) is the end-of-year CPI inflation for the United States obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) for the year \\( t \\) (meaning the year-on-year CPI inflation rate measured in December of that year) and \\( u_t \\) is the end-of-year unemployment rate for the United States obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) for the year \\( t \\)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8322, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723154060.871253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723154060.871253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.5504580574177 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9782495843314886, 0.4326949339433014, 0.772330576101931, 0.3678794411714424, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288916.165493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288916.165493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6199988667754807, 0.38000113322451934 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Phillips curves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve) are a class of models which propose connections between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in an economy. If there is some such relationship, we might expect that knowing both today's unemployment rate and last year's inflation rate allows us to forecast this year's inflation rate better than just relying on last year's inflation rate alone. \n\nTo this end, let \\( \\pi_t, u_t \\) denote the inflation rate and the unemployment rate for the United States in the year \\( t \\) respectively. We can then run the following ordinary least squared regressions from the year \\( 2022 \\) to the year \\( 2031 \\) inclusive:\n\n\\[ (1)\\, \\, \\pi_t = \\alpha + \\beta \\pi_{t-1} + \\varepsilon_t \\]\n\\[ (2)\\, \\, \\pi_t = \\alpha + \\beta_1 \\pi_{t-1} + \\beta_2 u_t + \\varepsilon_t \\]\n\nThe [adjusted coefficient of determination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination#Adjusted_R2) is a measure of how much of the variance in the dependent variable is explained by the regression that corrects for the number of independent variables so as to control for the effect of overfitting. Ideally, the adjusted coefficient of determination only goes up when we add an additional independent variable to a regression if the additional variable is actually useful in predicting the dependent variable." }, { "id": 8315, "title": "Will the next James Bond be female?", "short_title": "Next James Bond Female", "url_title": "Next James Bond Female", "slug": "next-james-bond-female", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-19T07:37:53.744160Z", "published_at": "2021-10-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.546637Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-23T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 151, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8315, "title": "Will the next James Bond be female?", "created_at": "2021-10-19T07:37:53.744160Z", "open_time": "2021-10-23T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-23T18:16:03.773198Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-23T18:16:03.773198Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "James Bond is a character created by Ian Fleming. He has been the lead character in a series of films made by Eon Productions. First portrayed by Sean Connery in 1962 and most recently by Daniel Craig in 2021.\n\nIt is widely understood that *No Time To Die* will be Craig's last movie. There is also lots of speculation of whether the next Bond character will be female:\n\n* [\"I think we've watched the guys do it for the last 40 years, get out of the way, guys, and put a woman up there,\" - Brosnan](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/a28963502/pierce-brosnan-female-bond/)\n* [\"The Next James Bond Should Be A Woman\" - Screen Rant](https://screenrant.com/daniel-craig-james-bond-woman-actor-positive-good-why/)\n\nHowever, the producers (the Broccoli family) are understood to be against the idea. [He can be of any color, but he is male…](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a30535775/next-james-bond-actor-will-not-be-woman-female-007/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if the next action film released by Eon films in the [James Bond universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_James_Bond_films) stars a main character who is a female intelligence officer.\n\nIf Eon Films releases no new action film in the James Bond Universe between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8315, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654403.876537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654403.876537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.08809657237327014 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.5998009691410573, 2.9654518223986117, 0.766699098240323, 1.1078266818005575, 0.1564304356434259, 1.0016668717295896, 2.973249725159272, 0.9996778004796227, 0.0007860979143548365, 0.9671972042496803, 3.674585961808309, 0.49649047487353526, 0.3786613124544111, 0.228294435437843, 0.00022202608809038569, 0.248275236164876, 0.6676394855942298, 0.6900909129563981, 0.7212824806006807, 0.13313848559932273, 0.4316893296349627, 0.09556450855264635, 0.23911877415028548, 0.043368240489173246, 0.0, 0.4056615729457916, 0.05088968638123486, 0.2079681238211934, 0.08050527331404991, 0.0, 0.0249758796414143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002896290564393036, 0.0, 0.4496120200661899, 0.00037525998682068275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0232333312471299, 0.0, 0.00033385358585663377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06872007762354906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07399202566096595, 0.0, 0.012607784480217692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003929493344381704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033795585328046988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020168001642718258 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289258.734158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289258.734158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9839553513301244, 0.016044648669875622 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 377, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "James Bond is a character created by Ian Fleming. He has been the lead character in a series of films made by Eon Productions. First portrayed by Sean Connery in 1962 and most recently by Daniel Craig in 2021.\n\nIt is widely understood that *No Time To Die* will be Craig's last movie. There is also lots of speculation of whether the next Bond character will be female:\n\n* [\"I think we've watched the guys do it for the last 40 years, get out of the way, guys, and put a woman up there,\" - Brosnan](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/a28963502/pierce-brosnan-female-bond/)\n* [\"The Next James Bond Should Be A Woman\" - Screen Rant](https://screenrant.com/daniel-craig-james-bond-woman-actor-positive-good-why/)\n\nHowever, the producers (the Broccoli family) are understood to be against the idea. [He can be of any color, but he is male…](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a30535775/next-james-bond-actor-will-not-be-woman-female-007/)" }, { "id": 8313, "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be the richest person in the world by 2050?", "short_title": "SBF as the richest person by 2050", "url_title": "SBF as the richest person by 2050", "slug": "sbf-as-the-richest-person-by-2050", "author_id": 112543, "author_username": "Natalia_Mendonca", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-18T15:44:41.726580Z", "published_at": "2021-10-21T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T08:16:43.267606Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-21T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-21T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 146, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2978, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Effective Altruism Resources Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2050-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.334821Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T01:08:31.808671Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2978, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Effective Altruism Resources Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2050-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.334821Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T01:08:31.808671Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8313, "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be the richest person in the world by 2050?", "created_at": "2021-10-18T15:44:41.726580Z", "open_time": "2021-10-21T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-23T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-23T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Queston on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3612/will-elon-musk-be-the-richest-person-in-the-world-at-any-point-during-the-2020s/)\n\n----\n\nSam Bankman-Fried is currently [the richest person in crypto](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-bankman-fried/) as well as [the richest person under 30](https://www.forbes.com/video/6275693545001/the-richest-person-under-30-in-the-world/?sh=75f95349128d). He [plans on donating the majority of his wealth to effective charities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2050, Sam Bankman-Fried is the richest person in the world according to the [Bloomberg Billionaire Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) or [Forbes' List of Billionaires](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#96d3c6f3d788). It is not necessary for Bankman-Fried to maintain this position for any length of time, so long as Bankman-Fried's estimate of wealth is accurate (not reported in error).\n\nIf both Bloomberg and Forbes do not regularly update and report this information during this period, Metaculus may select an alternative credible source at their discretion, or resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8313, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763021792.780547, "end_time": 1764570274.104087, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763021792.780547, "end_time": 1764570274.104087, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.003512508031538108 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.121544452146235, 1.9079496670322653, 0.040122832961557664, 0.0008871862303147453, 0.00018190433786112678, 0.004174539391159942, 0.0003727544410870008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007020536596245228, 0.0002378000335105385, 0.0, 0.008971480460813001, 0.00013237564647172888, 0.000760295965181982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09010077619439208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.748174343840716e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019873070315947383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007697537105339185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290182.401855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290182.401855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 345, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Queston on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3612/will-elon-musk-be-the-richest-person-in-the-world-at-any-point-during-the-2020s/)\n\n----\n\nSam Bankman-Fried is currently [the richest person in crypto](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-bankman-fried/) as well as [the richest person under 30](https://www.forbes.com/video/6275693545001/the-richest-person-under-30-in-the-world/?sh=75f95349128d). He [plans on donating the majority of his wealth to effective charities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried)." }, { "id": 8300, "title": "Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?", "short_title": "Fed tells banks to build up reserves", "url_title": "Fed tells banks to build up reserves", "slug": "fed-tells-banks-to-build-up-reserves", "author_id": 119492, "author_username": "David_Roman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-17T07:55:04.462010Z", "published_at": "2021-10-21T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.837568Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-21T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-01T23:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-01T23:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T18:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T18:47:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-21T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8300, "title": "Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?", "created_at": "2021-10-17T07:55:04.462010Z", "open_time": "2021-10-21T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-23T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-23T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T18:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T18:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-02T18:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-01T23:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-01T23:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The reserve requirement ratio (or RRR) indicates the minimum amount of reserves that must be held by commercial banks, as a percentage of their deposit liabilities. It’s one of several tools used by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and other central banks, to conduct monetary policy. China, for example, is a big fan of the RRR as a policy tool.\nA rise in the RRR mandates banks to accumulate reserves, removing cash from the economy – which boils down to monetary policy tightening. Besides other measures, the Fed has resorted to using the RRR: in March 2020, as part of its emergency measures suite, it lowered the RRR to 0%. And [it’s kept the policy in place since](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm).", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positive if the Fed [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm) officially announces a rise of its reserve requirements above 0%, before Jan. 1, 2022. \nThis resolves negative if no rise is officially announced here (even if it is, for example, hinted at by Fed officials.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8300, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638374609.456251, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638374609.456251, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.18492302966080976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.8915573206296469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16876590398836627, 0.0, 0.7504306013229386, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.7481572860898726, 0.0, 2.248985824858816, 0.0, 0.0, 1.127174288211448, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8116305268299652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8638935274408964, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.2656259592888601, "coverage": 0.9964221732090432, "baseline_score": 59.88040839790901, "spot_peer_score": 0.06576784189707188, "peer_archived_score": 1.2656259592888601, "baseline_archived_score": 59.88040839790901, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.06576784189707188 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638374609.477958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638374609.477958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8916360983677883, 0.10836390163221164 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The reserve requirement ratio (or RRR) indicates the minimum amount of reserves that must be held by commercial banks, as a percentage of their deposit liabilities. 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And [it’s kept the policy in place since](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm)." }, { "id": 8299, "title": "Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?", "short_title": "Fed Trims Size of Asset Portfolio", "url_title": "Fed Trims Size of Asset Portfolio", "slug": "fed-trims-size-of-asset-portfolio", "author_id": 119492, "author_username": "David_Roman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-17T07:51:08.850060Z", "published_at": "2021-10-21T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.535732Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-21T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-21T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8299, "title": "Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?", "created_at": "2021-10-17T07:51:08.850060Z", "open_time": "2021-10-21T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-23T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-23T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy responses to the economic lockdown caused by the pandemic include massive bond purchases that make it cheaper for the government and corporations to issue debt, thus providing an important lifeline for financial activity at a time of difficulty. \n\nThis is creating a massive asset portfolio (“Reserve Bank credit”) that the debt holds, which was at $8.4 trillion as of Sep 29, according to this [release](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm). The concern is such steps may contribute to price bubbles in markets and economic overheating due to excessive risk-taking. The opposite concern is that a quick asset selloff may create a market glut, lowering the cost of raising capital for companies.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positive if, by Jan. 1, 2023, assets held by the Fed, according to estimates published [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm), are below $8 trillion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8299, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672521327.733802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672521327.733802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02627472250560256 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 12.411007952452891, 0.3499799074295611, 0.9571802695591626, 0.24893669523764367, 0.0, 0.21221103855049928, 0.1676785192524047, 0.0, 0.003037496846661492, 0.06272559655183406, 0.0, 0.07506829335206704, 0.009651325883926231, 0.0, 0.03173358396197871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011058522686470973, 0.00837830513533033, 0.14981342850377868, 0.0, 0.016194143319162562, 0.0, 0.0061954904951238765, 0.0014822998514409601, 0.0, 0.018250358339304155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04980987501646663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020500370748786623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025639130579011613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022958310465499978, 0.0044369675217058565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010787010546677964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005267437638703229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08194978439761934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007128701647650959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012610469403091544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028558647718838943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003696163311486092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.605280463200597, "coverage": 0.9996659999631359, "baseline_score": 64.0929662234154, "spot_peer_score": 7.047925781560922, "peer_archived_score": 14.605280463200597, "baseline_archived_score": 64.0929662234154, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.047925781560922 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672521327.753778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672521327.753778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 198, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy responses to the economic lockdown caused by the pandemic include massive bond purchases that make it cheaper for the government and corporations to issue debt, thus providing an important lifeline for financial activity at a time of difficulty. \n\nThis is creating a massive asset portfolio (“Reserve Bank credit”) that the debt holds, which was at $8.4 trillion as of Sep 29, according to this [release](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm). The concern is such steps may contribute to price bubbles in markets and economic overheating due to excessive risk-taking. 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