Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4640
{ "count": 6393, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4660", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4620", "results": [ { "id": 8183, "title": "Will a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?", "short_title": "Cryptid discovery shakes up science by 2040", "url_title": "Cryptid discovery shakes up science by 2040", "slug": "cryptid-discovery-shakes-up-science-by-2040", "author_id": 113018, "author_username": "Grigfall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-12T00:00:54.284861Z", "published_at": "2021-12-23T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T19:32:45.639206Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-23T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-30T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-12-23T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8183, "title": "Will a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?", "created_at": "2021-10-12T00:00:54.284861Z", "open_time": "2021-12-23T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-23T19:34:48.297433Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-23T19:34:48.297433Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-30T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Across the world, people report seeing unidentified or out-of-place animals: those unknown to science, thought to be long extinct, or with strange abilities, behaviours or physiologies. \n\n\"Nessie\", \"Bigfoot\" and the \"Yowie\" are iconic figures that many people want to exist. More prosaically, people report seeing [Tasmanian tigers](https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-02-24/tasmanian-tiger-thylacine-sighting-debunked-pademelon/13186806) (extinct since the 1930s) as well as [big cats in the Australian bush](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-13/could-the-lithgow-panther-actually-exist/9116232).\n\nSometimes these observations serve an ideological purpose, as with [creationists who say reports of dinosaurs and other prehistoric animals present in the current day or recent history challenge the theory of natural selection](https://theconversation.com/at-the-evangelical-creation-museum-dinosaurs-lived-alongside-humans-and-the-world-is-6-000-years-old-142145). \n\nOther times they are more or less obvious hoaxes, or clear examples of people fooling themselves. \n\nCounter examples often given by cryptozoologists are the okapi, once considered a mythical jungle horse by Europeans; the coelacanth, a \"living fossil\"; the giant squid, which might explain \"kraken\" sightings; and the platypus, a seemingly impossible egg-laying mammal. \n\nNotably, these discoveries are decades or centuries old, and half of them are ocean-dwelling. But while Occam's razor, ecology and evolutionary science suggest cryptozoologists are wrong about most cryptids, are they wrong about all of them? \n\nI have designed the question in this way because I'm interested in questions that resolve positive if any one of many improbable outcomes come true, as a way of allowing for predictions on questions that most people would say are below 1% probability.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves positive if any of the following are satisfied: \n\n* **One of the following \"extinct\" species is found alive or recently dead:** A living Tasmanian tiger, mammoth, passenger pigeon, Steller's sea cow, quagga, dodo or great auk is discovered.\n* **Phantom cats:** The existence of big cats (Panthera genus, cheetah or cougar) in Australia or Western Europe is confirmed, *including* evidence of mating in the wild. \n* **Bigfoot, yowie or sasquatch:** Great apes are discovered that are native to anywhere other than Africa or South-East Asia. This can be an existing species or an entirely new one, as long as it is not considered to have been recently (last 50 years) introduced to the area. \n* **Loch Ness monster and friends:** A new species of megafauna (adults routinely exceed 45 kilograms) is discovered in Loch Ness, the Okanagan Valley, Lake Manitoba, Lake Ikeda or Lake Kussharo. \n* **Mokele-mbembe:** A new species of gigantic reptile (adults routinely exceeding 1 tonne) or rhinocerous is discovered in the Congo River Basin. \n* **Chupacabra:** A new species of vertebrate is discovered in Puerto Rico that is observed killing livestock by drinking their blood.\n* **Mongolian death worm:** A new species of large invertebrate (adults routinely exceed one foot in length) is discovered in the Gobi Desert. \n* **Pterodactyls:** A new species is discovered that descends from the Pterosauria clade. \n\nIn all cases, the test is whether the scientific consensus changes in the face of convincing evidence - for example, DNA or a physical specimen recovered. It is not enough that a minority of scientists in the relevant field are convinced.\n\nIn the absence of convincing DNA evidence or a physical specimen, scientific consensus will be considered established if more papers arguing for the discovery appear in journals of [SENSE top-ranked publishers (A rating)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rankings_of_academic_publishers#SENSE_rankings) than against over a two-year period, with at least 10 papers appearing total", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8183, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762198355.239388, "end_time": 1764947713.393948, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762198355.239388, "end_time": 1764947713.393948, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.04597431028126068 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.2210014320710894, 3.8057057919555337, 2.2561114207075192, 3.4101415796593533, 0.6365356751826415, 2.8982461569935603, 0.1724595073815997, 0.7095358936240778, 0.016977159482529324, 0.34164350520401776, 0.16207655508288266, 0.2788585832729545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02405118580334803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049271907876978605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19402411649690002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3961933719488098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17039382781581086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00962250396267543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017624230778577688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00784546800835153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030830933517555805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289008.460333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289008.460333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9968999295029465, 0.0031000704970534677 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 184, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Across the world, people report seeing unidentified or out-of-place animals: those unknown to science, thought to be long extinct, or with strange abilities, behaviours or physiologies. \n\n\"Nessie\", \"Bigfoot\" and the \"Yowie\" are iconic figures that many people want to exist. More prosaically, people report seeing [Tasmanian tigers](https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-02-24/tasmanian-tiger-thylacine-sighting-debunked-pademelon/13186806) (extinct since the 1930s) as well as [big cats in the Australian bush](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-13/could-the-lithgow-panther-actually-exist/9116232).\n\nSometimes these observations serve an ideological purpose, as with [creationists who say reports of dinosaurs and other prehistoric animals present in the current day or recent history challenge the theory of natural selection](https://theconversation.com/at-the-evangelical-creation-museum-dinosaurs-lived-alongside-humans-and-the-world-is-6-000-years-old-142145). \n\nOther times they are more or less obvious hoaxes, or clear examples of people fooling themselves. \n\nCounter examples often given by cryptozoologists are the okapi, once considered a mythical jungle horse by Europeans; the coelacanth, a \"living fossil\"; the giant squid, which might explain \"kraken\" sightings; and the platypus, a seemingly impossible egg-laying mammal. \n\nNotably, these discoveries are decades or centuries old, and half of them are ocean-dwelling. But while Occam's razor, ecology and evolutionary science suggest cryptozoologists are wrong about most cryptids, are they wrong about all of them? \n\nI have designed the question in this way because I'm interested in questions that resolve positive if any one of many improbable outcomes come true, as a way of allowing for predictions on questions that most people would say are below 1% probability." }, { "id": 8164, "title": "Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?", "short_title": "Yang's Forward Party to take off", "url_title": "Yang's Forward Party to take off", "slug": "yangs-forward-party-to-take-off", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-05T22:52:11.707461Z", "published_at": "2021-10-08T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T03:51:44.525994Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-08T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-06-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-08T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8164, "title": "Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?", "created_at": "2021-10-05T22:52:11.707461Z", "open_time": "2021-10-08T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-08T14:45:52.738048Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-08T14:45:52.738048Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-06-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/573653-yangs-new-party-will-be-called-the-forward-party),\n\n> Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang's new third party will be called \"The Forward Party,\" he reportedly says in his upcoming book. \n\n> Business Insider reported that the name was revealed near the end of Yang's book entitled \"Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy.\"\n\n> The book also details the principles that will guide Yang's party, including \"ranked-choice voting and open primaries,\" \"fact-based governance\" and \"human-centered capitalism.\" It will also promote a \"universal basic income,\" an idea that helped him gain some traction in the 2020 presidential primary. \n\n> Yang also criticizes the \"duopoly\" of America's two-party system which he claimed was not made to handle the \"cascade of crises\" that the U.S. has recently endured, Business Insider said.\n\nWill Yang's Forward Party take off by February 1st 2029?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if any member of Congress, or the president, is at some point while holding office a member of the Forward Party before February 1st 2029. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n\nCredible media will be used for resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8164, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763638335.16115, "end_time": 1765906209.499029, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763638335.16115, "end_time": 1765906209.499029, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.047549602135131645 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.0084794026010115, 4.916195351562639, 2.006587654323725, 0.7770441138817827, 0.06327492015001017, 0.3615158558907636, 0.0, 0.05548779491047209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026430157778456278, 0.00743766165558475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08372700717114152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09157390813266936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37666641231333553 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288760.646236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288760.646236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9983696132555832, 0.0016303867444168107 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 267, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/573653-yangs-new-party-will-be-called-the-forward-party),\n\n> Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang's new third party will be called \"The Forward Party,\" he reportedly says in his upcoming book. \n\n> Business Insider reported that the name was revealed near the end of Yang's book entitled \"Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy.\"\n\n> The book also details the principles that will guide Yang's party, including \"ranked-choice voting and open primaries,\" \"fact-based governance\" and \"human-centered capitalism.\" It will also promote a \"universal basic income,\" an idea that helped him gain some traction in the 2020 presidential primary. \n\n> Yang also criticizes the \"duopoly\" of America's two-party system which he claimed was not made to handle the \"cascade of crises\" that the U.S. has recently endured, Business Insider said.\n\nWill Yang's Forward Party take off by February 1st 2029?" }, { "id": 8160, "title": "Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?", "short_title": "US-Iran War by 2024", "url_title": "US-Iran War by 2024", "slug": "us-iran-war-by-2024", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-05T14:24:55.773277Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.352353Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-11T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-11T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8160, "title": "Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-10-05T14:24:55.773277Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-11T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-11T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "See [the Wikipedia article on the 2019–2021 Persian Gulf crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932021_Persian_Gulf_crisis) for some context relevant to this question.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a US-Iran war is defined as the US and Iran collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Iran or between Iran and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\n\n\n\nWe will use [the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies' definition of battle-related deaths](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\n\n\n\n**Related questions**\n\n\n\n* [What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7881/critical-conflicts-for-us-by-2023/)\n\n* [Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/)\n\n* [Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/)\n\n* [Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3462/will-there-be-a-us-iran-war-in-2020/)\n\n* [US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3451/us-invades-and-attempts-a-regime-change-in-iran-in-2020/)\n\n* [How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3453/how-many-cyberattacks-by-iran-against-us-govt-systems-in-q1-2020/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8160, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1646957743.916577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1646957743.916577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.07450842968441915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.1871712995486994, 1.499915119646921, 2.6081993256135574, 2.6221132725156027, 2.2550207655519445, 0.0, 0.8423945157233667, 0.4796129618453883, 0.2964170805706633, 0.2596434091051626, 0.4632431883235791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4927652120469003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8922909885556951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01958911193224546, 0.04974680833615912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001078956545637215, 0.0, 0.3164420601480945, 0.0, 0.7499437156931522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004025379543753844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1288081896360328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.057204768520165, "coverage": 0.999889883233775, "baseline_score": 93.72538885820408, "spot_peer_score": 6.092742386423803, "peer_archived_score": 4.057204768520165, "baseline_archived_score": 93.72538885820408, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.092742386423803 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1646957743.940274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1646957743.940274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9853033668175667, 0.014696633182433253 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 134, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "See [the Wikipedia article on the 2019–2021 Persian Gulf crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932021_Persian_Gulf_crisis) for some context relevant to this question." }, { "id": 8159, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?", "short_title": "Japan/China Clash by 2024", "url_title": "Japan/China Clash by 2024", "slug": "japanchina-clash-by-2024", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-05T14:21:53.927633Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.191397Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 153, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8159, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-10-05T14:21:53.927633Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)\n\n* [[...] between Indian and Chinese armed forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n\n* [[...] between Russian and Chinese armed forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n\n----\n\nChina and Japan were last at war during World War II.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the Japanese armed forces and the Chinese armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.\n\nFor this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n\nAt least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n\nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both the Japan and China", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8159, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703828928.002153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.006 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703828928.002153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005788085528096238 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.454902613016653, 5.036215044258997, 0.06258284023834879, 0.07139741904801873, 0.26130306519729407, 0.03111570157488604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019384886761719636, 0.009336204449388902, 0.02270790470187728, 0.0061629052102733905, 0.0, 0.15240277988945966, 0.00021881946343816112, 0.002530954233485109, 0.0, 0.005751961649463862, 0.0, 0.07643168789929847, 0.01732354725763737, 0.0006959050264017454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009665985627488596, 1.1544321616161003e-05, 0.0006302986036300286, 0.0, 5.985619839723628e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000843615062305273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003319859420018185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.654750100187744, "coverage": 0.9997222650551064, "baseline_score": 93.39821500378939, "spot_peer_score": 2.8557526335826475, "peer_archived_score": 6.654750100187744, "baseline_archived_score": 93.39821500378939, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.8557526335826475 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703835578.784062, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703835578.784062, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 327, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)\n\n* [[...] between Indian and Chinese armed forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n\n* [[...] between Russian and Chinese armed forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n\n----\n\nChina and Japan were last at war during World War II." }, { "id": 8154, "title": "Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Proposal to ban Hydrazine in US by 2025", "url_title": "Proposal to ban Hydrazine in US by 2025", "slug": "proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-us-by-2025", "author_id": 107755, "author_username": "anosseir", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-04T23:03:17.022513Z", "published_at": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.483912Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:05:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8154, "title": "Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T23:03:17.022513Z", "open_time": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-12T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-12T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T16:07:05.867964Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8153/proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-eu-by-2025/)\n\n----\n\nTen years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\n\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\n\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called ‘Green Propellants.’ A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns or environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project lifecycle, are considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine, but fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. More detailed technical definitions can be referenced in the these academic articles: [Article 1](http://yadda.icm.edu.pl/baztech/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-71f98242-5541-4f80-a02b-8b601f7fe31b), [Article 2](https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/8/1/20/htm#B3-aerospace-08-00020).\n\nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)) the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \n\nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any branch of the US federal government makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before January 20, 2025. It is not necessary for this proposal to recieve a vote or become law to resolve this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8154, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736984609.746141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07083120253513267 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736984609.746141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07083120253513267 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.036070102444188464 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.625642504634525, 1.9079517262913335, 1.1642987731004264, 0.01917969985736262, 0.0, 0.078378956808395, 0.2472970147271662, 0.5118505103005787, 1.100214406736031, 0.296842444470118, 0.4541731990621259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047802726739546664, 0.0, 0.27652254426185613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03874699894122838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010606778452136844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006407544366770682, 0.22518626811013776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031250959703169254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030815271309911525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02678127518047141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 78.93383307750328, "peer_score": 7.6618920146259875, "coverage": 0.9997681013534843, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997681013534843, "spot_peer_score": 17.02752079219968, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 78.93383307750328, "peer_archived_score": 7.6618920146259875, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.02752079219968, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289248.375755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289248.375755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9941788356971094, 0.005821164302890567 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 131, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8153/proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-eu-by-2025/)\n\n----\n\nTen years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\n\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\n\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called ‘Green Propellants.’ A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns or environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project lifecycle, are considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine, but fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. More detailed technical definitions can be referenced in the these academic articles: [Article 1](http://yadda.icm.edu.pl/baztech/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-71f98242-5541-4f80-a02b-8b601f7fe31b), [Article 2](https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/8/1/20/htm#B3-aerospace-08-00020).\n\nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)) the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \n\nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention." }, { "id": 8153, "title": "Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?", "short_title": "Hydrazine Ban Proposal in EU by 2025", "url_title": "Hydrazine Ban Proposal in EU by 2025", "slug": "hydrazine-ban-proposal-in-eu-by-2025", "author_id": 107755, "author_username": "anosseir", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-04T23:03:03.829224Z", "published_at": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.355026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T21:56:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8153, "title": "Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T23:03:03.829224Z", "open_time": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-12T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-12T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T21:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T22:16:55.612878Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/us-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/)\n\n----\n\nTen years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\n\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\n\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called [‘Green Propellants.’](https://www.nasa.gov/centers/wstf/testing_and_analysis/propellants_and_aerospace_fulids/green_propellants.html) Although the topic has been raised about [20 years ago](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Green_Propellant_for_Space_Propulsion), NASA's most important technical demonstration mission for green propellants [GPIM](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/index.html) was launched June 2019. A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that, the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns and no environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project life-cycleare considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine and its derivatives. Fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space Propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. \n\nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)) the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \n\nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.\n\n***Will there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the European Commission makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before January 1, 2025. It is not necessary for this proposal to receive a vote or become law to resolve this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8153, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735727943.602517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735727943.602517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11266739397979166 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.137924030367036, 0.6252658305541193, 0.0, 0.4570562060943923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.572389870608653, 0.0, 0.7081278126566147, 0.0, 1.7762791903962571, 0.0, 0.4236871445251884, 0.0, 0.26357008825228284, 0.02892019494468926, 0.13119983239354882, 0.24263464463183257, 0.0, 0.30999457281726844, 0.44930374012671914, 0.6501147254160464, 0.7676604722675442, 0.07277615171478852, 0.0, 0.3300806504618893, 0.0, 0.05265139568081303, 0.33566448758373646, 0.0, 0.05798803520575131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009026701372004793, 0.5862046741315553, 0.06549491799116114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1879393751887922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03553655167460577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002473836920010813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05879944916051883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.949603933555935, "peer_score": 6.019485526402701, "coverage": 0.9997643514839637, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997643514839637, "spot_peer_score": 10.55565364416777, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 58.949603933555935, "peer_archived_score": 6.019485526402701, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.55565364416777, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287261.966623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287261.966623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9605130511780601, 0.03948694882193994 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 175, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 8150, "title": "Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?", "short_title": ">3,000 nonstrategic weapons at end of 2023", "url_title": ">3,000 nonstrategic weapons at end of 2023", "slug": "3000-nonstrategic-weapons-at-end-of-2023", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:53:12.504483Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.001373Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:41:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8150, "title": "Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:53:12.504483Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T22:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\nAccording to [a Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/RL32572.pdf):\n\n>\"While there are several ways to distinguish between strategic and nonstrategic nuclear weapons, most analysts consider nonstrategic weapons to be shorter-range delivery systems with lower-yield warheads that might attack troops or facilities on the battlefield. \n\n>[These weapons] have not been limited by past U.S.-Russian arms control agreements. Some analysts argue such limits would be of value, particularly in addressing Russia’s greater numbers of these types of weapons. Others have argued that the United States should expand its deployments of these weapons, in both Europe and Asia, to address new risks of war conducted under a nuclear shadow.\"\n\nThe Federation of American Scientists (FAS) [estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have \"nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals\"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273). It's therefore not clear precisely how many nonstrategic weapons there are, but it's clear that it's below 3000.\n\nThe [Federation of American Scientists (FAS) states](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273) that \"Since the end of the Cold War, inventories have declined by an order of magnitude from 20,000–30,000 to about 2,500 today\" (as of 2019). FAS estimate that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have \"nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals\"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273).\n\nHow many such weapons will be stockpiled and deployed by various countries in future may also have effects on - and serve as a proxy for - proliferation risk, the chance of nuclear war occurring, and what interventions would most effectively reduce nuclear risk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the most recent estimates available on December 31, 2023 from the FAS, across various sources, indicate that there are >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons on December 31, 2023. (One way this could occur is if multiple [\"Nuclear Notebook\"](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook/) columns on individual countries' nuclear forces each give estimates of those countries' numbers of nonstrategic nuclear warheads, with these estimates summing to >3,000.) This includes warheads that are deployed, are in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact. \n\nIf FAS do not publish in 2023 estimates of the number of nonstrategic weapons possessed in total or at least by the US and Russia, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\n\nThis question will resolve no later than January 31, 2024 based on the best available information at that time, which may include an ambiguous resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8150, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703733135.196217, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703733135.196217, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02680092989359443 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.7186441544996165, 7.3327661172926994, 3.369862581956969, 0.43810400552374745, 0.049484673575065724, 0.329723697217705, 0.6448769309498277, 0.115338800283193, 0.06084433040978007, 0.26090695720382173, 0.18165800593773482, 0.16277177164928397, 0.1603519796863534, 0.0012831903312438614, 0.1017268574817621, 0.016828275122184173, 0.011968696167793273, 0.02996936267575845, 0.0015233659059589726, 0.02583872132393838, 0.1321186017935786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1685024010537994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11163240600298154, 0.0, 0.004715949200017162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02813465474885012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031981729232186985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015065764538379534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031196504298956556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.855537830792441, "coverage": 0.9997174019488426, "baseline_score": 81.06243091575186, "spot_peer_score": 6.268007977111079, "peer_archived_score": 5.855537830792441, "baseline_archived_score": 81.06243091575186, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.268007977111079 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703835744.133433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703835744.133433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9990052970355525, 0.0009947029644474393 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 239, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\nAccording to [a Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/RL32572.pdf):\n\n>\"While there are several ways to distinguish between strategic and nonstrategic nuclear weapons, most analysts consider nonstrategic weapons to be shorter-range delivery systems with lower-yield warheads that might attack troops or facilities on the battlefield. \n\n>[These weapons] have not been limited by past U.S.-Russian arms control agreements. Some analysts argue such limits would be of value, particularly in addressing Russia’s greater numbers of these types of weapons. Others have argued that the United States should expand its deployments of these weapons, in both Europe and Asia, to address new risks of war conducted under a nuclear shadow.\"\n\nThe Federation of American Scientists (FAS) [estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have \"nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals\"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273). It's therefore not clear precisely how many nonstrategic weapons there are, but it's clear that it's below 3000.\n\nThe [Federation of American Scientists (FAS) states](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273) that \"Since the end of the Cold War, inventories have declined by an order of magnitude from 20,000–30,000 to about 2,500 today\" (as of 2019). FAS estimate that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have \"nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals\"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273).\n\nHow many such weapons will be stockpiled and deployed by various countries in future may also have effects on - and serve as a proxy for - proliferation risk, the chance of nuclear war occurring, and what interventions would most effectively reduce nuclear risk." }, { "id": 8148, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?", "short_title": "Russia and Non-US NATO Clash by 2024", "url_title": "Russia and Non-US NATO Clash by 2024", "slug": "russia-and-non-us-nato-clash-by-2024", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:49:47.865248Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.516592Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 191, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8148, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:49:47.865248Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/)\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the armed forces of a NATO member (other than the US) and the Russian armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.\n\nFor this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n\nAt least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n\nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both Russia and a non-US NATO member.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the above criteria are *not* met for a clash between Russia and a non-US NATO member, or if the criteria *are* met for a clash between Russia and the US by 2024 (regardless of whether there is a qualifying clash between Russia and a NATO member before or after the US-Russia clash)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8148, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703891079.031421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703891079.031421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.010841652879913784 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.08225090061173, 5.7336563810526116, 0.30697745458924175, 0.21654935211544085, 0.15247942119696367, 0.46531268494241196, 0.15346369508392232, 0.44304933748898806, 0.02667496581986179, 0.0014442500743762248, 0.05690049503406419, 0.036494376968603644, 0.0519489138174745, 0.03315073896846227, 0.0, 0.020190702874454593, 0.024208596978631276, 0.016164864562957813, 0.0, 0.009742896322511239, 0.013360860373714254, 0.001645070536349913, 0.006014315049455865, 0.13738944044197013, 0.0, 0.059752637968305926, 0.002020314967495334, 0.0, 0.015350239536418267, 0.0, 0.00846130955247362, 0.00987669032794282, 0.00278635489139405, 0.005256417193181345, 2.351205473437231e-05, 0.00018902982881196254, 0.0, 0.00684758047725567, 0.0008152049299123488, 0.0, 0.023042859514933307, 0.0007577337223112569, 0.00021710918941424587, 0.00013351516707628568, 0.0, 0.0005992087942077103, 0.0, 2.743611982966245e-05, 0.0, 0.01798069476976054, 0.0, 0.0001144265078157236, 0.00014770774076720182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.196739400863283e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.433864113013448e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.472230186066337, "coverage": 0.9997214798408288, "baseline_score": 74.71630722808115, "spot_peer_score": 0.011317978621115502, "peer_archived_score": 9.472230186066337, "baseline_archived_score": 74.71630722808115, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.011317978621115502 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703891079.079345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703891079.079345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 552, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/)\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 8147, "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?", "short_title": "Conditional: 2 of Russia, US, China detonate", "url_title": "Conditional: 2 of Russia, US, China detonate", "slug": "conditional-2-of-russia-us-china-detonate", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:48:07.535431Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.289507Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8147, "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:48:07.535431Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In particular, scenarios involving Russia-US, Russia-China, or US-China nuclear conflict may be especially worth prioritizing, as those three states have the largest nuclear forces and relations between them (especially US-China) also seem important for other issues. \n\nIt therefore seems important to have a clearer sense of how likely it is that conflicts that do not start between those states would escalate to involve them. The more likely such escalation is, the more it would be worth also prioritizing reducing the chance of those other scenarios or of an escalation from them to a scenario involving Russia-US, Russia-China, or US-China conflicts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve conditionally on an offensive nuclear detonation occurring between October 1, 2021 and January 1, 2024 **and** the first such detonation not being (a) of a weapon owned by Russia, the US, or China, and (b) on or over the territory of one of the others of those states. For example, this condition would be met if an Indian nuclear weapon is offensively detonated over Pakistani territory or if a Chinese nuclear weapon is detonated over Japanese territory. If this condition isn't met, the question resolves ambiguously.\n\nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and, also by 2024, at least two of the three countries Russia, the US, or China have offensively detonated at least one nuclear weapon each. Those detonations can include, but don't have to include, the detonation that met the previously specified condition. (For example, this question would resolve positively if by 2024 China offensively detonates against Japan and then the US offensively detonates against China, or if India offensively detonates against anyone and then both China and the US offensively detonate against anyone.)\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). \n\n**Related Questions**\n\n* [Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8145/conditional-2-countries-detonate-by-2024/)\n\n* [Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated or or over their territories by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8146/conditional-2-countries-attacked-by-2024/)\n\n* [Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/)\n\n* [Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)", "fine_print": "Detonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over a point that is within the territory of a country. \n\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8147, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076344.179362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076344.179362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.0827747221585139 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.6484232087574857, 4.312439970784529, 0.9504280397988019, 3.553601840535333, 1.0377432396803157, 0.5357980017827071, 0.3505766773383991, 0.18139484849185425, 0.45622139742526135, 0.0, 0.9631219788352918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17170723907335256, 0.0, 0.028300902147741707, 0.0, 0.5351799653034296, 0.10489672558046856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07210060232265658, 0.0, 0.0008165408802466752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004545421011829164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006823873861341829, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014824796017118348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8007238388551874 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076344.198771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076344.198771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9958804073518216, 0.004119592648178375 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 184, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In particular, scenarios involving Russia-US, Russia-China, or US-China nuclear conflict may be especially worth prioritizing, as those three states have the largest nuclear forces and relations between them (especially US-China) also seem important for other issues. \n\nIt therefore seems important to have a clearer sense of how likely it is that conflicts that do not start between those states would escalate to involve them. The more likely such escalation is, the more it would be worth also prioritizing reducing the chance of those other scenarios or of an escalation from them to a scenario involving Russia-US, Russia-China, or US-China conflicts." }, { "id": 8146, "title": "Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?", "short_title": "Conditional: >2 countries attacked by 2024", "url_title": "Conditional: >2 countries attacked by 2024", "slug": "conditional-2-countries-attacked-by-2024", "author_id": 112036, "author_username": "TomL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:45:15.185195Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.538733Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8146, "title": "Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:45:15.185195Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve many attacking and attacked countries, rather than just one or two. \n\n\n\n(For example, the likelier it is that a conflict involving North Korea would escalate to involve a conflict between the US and either China or Russia, the more it makes sense to prioritize reducing the chance of such a conflict or such escalation, rather than focusing more strongly on only conflicts that start out involving multiple states with large arsenals.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, by 2024, at least 3 countries have each had at least one offensive nuclear detonation by another country occur on or over a point that is within their territories. For example, it would resolve positively if at least one nuclear weapon is detonated offensively on or over the territories of each of China, North Korea, and the US, for a total of at least 3 offensive detonations. This could occur as part of one conflict or as part of multiple, separate conflicts.\n\n\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon between this question opening and the start of 2024.\n\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). \n\n\n\nDetonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution.\n\n\n\n**Related questions**\n\n* [Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8145/conditional-2-countries-detonate-by-2024/)\n\n* [Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8147/conditional-2-of-russia-us-china-detonate/)\n\n* [Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)", "fine_print": "Different countries count as different countries for this question even if they are part of a single military alliance (e.g., NATO), as you would expect.\n\n\n\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over a point that is within the territory of a country. \n\n\n\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\n\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8146, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076484.635952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076484.635952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.28667027609353385 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42796700049109443, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.7203196603611988, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.012460834330696993, 2.3523478272417013, 0.49919970777631545, 0.35834256537117526, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.21159418028796606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076484.654974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076484.654974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9102159951600669, 0.08978400483993311 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve many attacking and attacked countries, rather than just one or two. \n\n\n\n(For example, the likelier it is that a conflict involving North Korea would escalate to involve a conflict between the US and either China or Russia, the more it makes sense to prioritize reducing the chance of such a conflict or such escalation, rather than focusing more strongly on only conflicts that start out involving multiple states with large arsenals.)" }, { "id": 8145, "title": "Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?", "short_title": "Conditional: >2 countries detonate by 2024", "url_title": "Conditional: >2 countries detonate by 2024", "slug": "conditional-2-countries-detonate-by-2024", "author_id": 112036, "author_username": "TomL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:43:40.159863Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.182655Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8145, "title": "Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:43:40.159863Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve many attacking and attacked countries, rather than just one or two. \n\n\n\n(For example, the likelier it is that a conflict involving North Korea would escalate to involve a conflict between the US and either China or Russia, the more it makes sense to prioritize reducing the chance of such a conflict or such escalation, rather than focusing more strongly on only conflicts that start out involving multiple states with large arsenals.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, by 2024, there has been at least one offensive nuclear detonation of nuclear weapons owned by each of at least 3 countries. For example, it would resolve positively if at least one nuclear weapon owned by each of China, North Korea, and the US are offensively detonated, for a total of at least 3 offensive detonations. This could occur as part of one conflict or as part of multiple, separate conflicts.\n\n\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation a nuclear weapon owned by any country before 2024.\n\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). \n\n\n\n**See also**\n\n* [Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated or or over their territories by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8146/conditional-2-countries-attacked-by-2024/)\n\n* [Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/)\n\n* [Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)", "fine_print": "Different countries count as different countries for this question even if they are part of a single military alliance (e.g., NATO), as you would expect.\n\n\n\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\n\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8145, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076474.91768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076474.91768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22707486794177625 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4965382204044675, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8768236072325561, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4831758766786636, 0.459972481983473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22900802253318142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28211668489493613, 0.0, 0.7687034204351084, 0.0, 0.05797234383343228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06156718630382845, 0.0, 0.45875031368367064, 1.0536417068567943, 0.008649961225964252, 0.9465546155433613, 0.0, 0.08867683223307754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09293152494368159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076474.935462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076474.935462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9603070699193014, 0.03969293008069858 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve many attacking and attacked countries, rather than just one or two. \n\n\n\n(For example, the likelier it is that a conflict involving North Korea would escalate to involve a conflict between the US and either China or Russia, the more it makes sense to prioritize reducing the chance of such a conflict or such escalation, rather than focusing more strongly on only conflicts that start out involving multiple states with large arsenals.)" }, { "id": 8144, "title": "Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?", "short_title": "Retaliation Next Offensive Nuclear Detonation", "url_title": "Retaliation Next Offensive Nuclear Detonation", "slug": "retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:40:40.913429Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.363003Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 124, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8144, "title": "Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:40:40.913429Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n\n----\n\nDifferent nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it is useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve two or more attacking countries, rather than just one.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024:\n\n1. There are one or more offensive nuclear detonations of nuclear weapons owned by some country, and\n\n2. Within 30 days of the first of those detonations, there is at least one offensive detonation of another country's nuclear weapon, against the country who owned the previously detonated nuclear weapon(s).\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). For simplicity, no attempt will be made to account for whether the detonation against the country who owned the previously detonated nuclear weapon(s) is truly a \"retaliation\" or even whether it's by a country directly harmed by the original detonation(s); it just needs to occur within 30 days.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there is no offensive nuclear detonation a nuclear weapon owned by any country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "The military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8144, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703828963.853085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703828963.853085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.17143127685143741 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.125165660698218, 3.07659673032926, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3288332673892822, 0.053204973039300725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5646761534549913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1263220203388621, 0.05233049738909348, 0.37980673925187064, 0.05758431792622858, 1.7270805261415842, 0.8801016953460528, 0.0, 2.1977185550134926, 0.12491227506671672, 0.010274499796835188, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4408833573569142, 0.16824113662674053, 0.38416488241810953, 0.17143327097792785, 0.0, 1.3204470958244428, 0.1411690806289894, 0.0, 1.1391577254545067, 0.0, 0.08912362406936909, 0.6322625944210946, 0.6940584421770902, 0.21389852962071393, 0.0, 0.4182442736670501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010058799600925459, 0.00038322070596049355, 0.015994206346520937, 0.0, 0.0005367503601643788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020555900945906638, 0.0031816227343480045, 0.000695006235239385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009006236411092998, 0.0, 0.0, 5.999105061480908e-05, 0.001627910813036495, 0.001014978307598649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15464364720217222, 0.0, 0.00046595238343834493, 0.0006150104251204265, 0.0, 0.0002513646865470202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025527011359245535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026336717521666594, 0.03833005933264137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703835447.585464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703835447.585464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9297088514447794, 0.0702911485552206 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 281, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n\n----\n\nDifferent nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it is useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve two or more attacking countries, rather than just one." }, { "id": 8142, "title": "Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?", "short_title": "FY21 NDAA study publicly available by 2023", "url_title": "FY21 NDAA study publicly available by 2023", "slug": "fy21-ndaa-study-publicly-available-by-2023", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:38:19.925467Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.851735Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8142, "title": "Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:38:19.925467Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Section 3171 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 [states](https://www.nationalacademies.org/ocga/public-laws/william-m-mac-thornberry-national-defense-authorization-act-for-fiscal-year-2021):\n\n\n\n>\"The Administrator for Nuclear Security, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the Director of National Intelligence, shall seek to enter into an agreement with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine under which the National Academies conduct a study on the environmental effects of nuclear war. \n\n>[...] Not later than 18 months after the date of the enactment of this Act, the National Academies shall submit to the Administrator, the Secretary, the Director, and the congressional defense committees a report on the study under subsection (a).\n\n>[...] The report under paragraph (1) shall be submitted in unclassified form but may include a classified annex.\"\n\n\n\nThe bill was signed into law on 2021-01-01, meaning that \"18 months after the enactment of this act\" would make this report due by 2022-07-01. \n\n\n\nAs [noted by the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-04/news-briefs/congress-mandates-studies-nuclear-war):\n\n>\"The new report would be among the most significant of its kind by the National Academies since its 640-page examination The Medical Implications of Nuclear War, published in 1986.\"\n\n\n\nIt seems plausible that such a report could substantially inform our understanding of nuclear risk and substantially influence policymaking in this area, if the report is indeed written and made publicly available.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, between this question opening and 2023-01-01, the National Academies publicly releases a report that is framed as fulfilling the mandate from Section 3171 of the FY21 NDAA and is indeed substantially focused on possible environmental effects of nuclear war", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8142, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648822608.739282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648822608.739282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6481111254808257 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0416713579562236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5227235049387802, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.6025236003550163, 0.0, 0.0, 1.907879789119436, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 1.485837456703102, 0.0, 0.6356722880932002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8338673688246224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5673981855945806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -1.266724856192735, "coverage": 0.9999791898019602, "baseline_score": -65.55927317640256, "spot_peer_score": -2.10852871084379, "peer_archived_score": -1.266724856192735, "baseline_archived_score": -65.55927317640256, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.10852871084379 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648822608.812184, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648822608.812184, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4841796942431401, 0.5158203057568599 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Section 3171 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 [states](https://www.nationalacademies.org/ocga/public-laws/william-m-mac-thornberry-national-defense-authorization-act-for-fiscal-year-2021):\n\n\n\n>\"The Administrator for Nuclear Security, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the Director of National Intelligence, shall seek to enter into an agreement with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine under which the National Academies conduct a study on the environmental effects of nuclear war. \n\n>[...] Not later than 18 months after the date of the enactment of this Act, the National Academies shall submit to the Administrator, the Secretary, the Director, and the congressional defense committees a report on the study under subsection (a).\n\n>[...] The report under paragraph (1) shall be submitted in unclassified form but may include a classified annex.\"\n\n\n\nThe bill was signed into law on 2021-01-01, meaning that \"18 months after the enactment of this act\" would make this report due by 2022-07-01. \n\n\n\nAs [noted by the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-04/news-briefs/congress-mandates-studies-nuclear-war):\n\n>\"The new report would be among the most significant of its kind by the National Academies since its 640-page examination The Medical Implications of Nuclear War, published in 1986.\"\n\n\n\nIt seems plausible that such a report could substantially inform our understanding of nuclear risk and substantially influence policymaking in this area, if the report is indeed written and made publicly available." }, { "id": 8141, "title": "Will an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?", "short_title": "Individual city hit 3+ times by 2024", "url_title": "Individual city hit 3+ times by 2024", "slug": "individual-city-hit-3-times-by-2024", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:36:04.814662Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.968607Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8141, "title": "Will an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:36:04.814662Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Some people (e.g., [Rodriguez, 2019a](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FfxrwBdBDCg9YTh69/how-many-people-would-be-killed-as-a-direct-result-of-a-us#The_number_of_deaths_caused_by_nuclear_detonations_in_civilian_targets), [2019b](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_nuclear_detonations)) have argued that: \n\n* It's plausible or likely that nuclear conflict would involve some major cities each being hit by multiple detonations (at least if cities are targeted are at all)\n\n* If that happens, it could substantially increase the immediate fatalities and nuclear winter effects from nuclear conflict (since second, third, etc. detonations on cities like New York would have much larger effects than first detonations on much smaller targets)\n\n\n\nThe likelihood of multiple detonations on individual major cities could also be seen as an imperfect proxy for the expected total scale of a nuclear exchange, since such multiple detonations are probably more likely if large-scale [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting occurs.\n\n\n\nAltogether, a higher likelihood of multiple detonations on individual major cities would push in favor of (1) working to reduce nuclear risk and (2) doing so by reducing the chance of large-scale conflicts or countervalue targeting.", "resolution_criteria": "The question conditions on there being at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over a city after this question opens and before 2024. That is, it resolves ambiguously if that condition is not met.\n\n\n\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, for at least one individual city anywhere in the world, 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations occur on or over a point that is within the bounds of that city. For example, it would resolve positively if there are 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations on New York, and/or 3 or more on Moscow, and/or 3 or more on Beijing. \n\n\n\nThe question resolves negatively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over any city, but there are not 3 or more such detonations on or over any single city, even if there are 3 or more such detonations spread out across multiple cities. \n\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.", "fine_print": "Detonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city\".\n\n\n\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, it does not matter whether a strike was intended to kill civilians or to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a city.\n\n\n\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\n\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8141, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703828886.590622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703828886.590622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12894863182153674 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.614171368711171, 3.5851225785013123, 0.08173128155914512, 0.02780942347398148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7313865134846452, 0.7927754848047819, 0.0, 3.3415378115358907, 0.0, 0.8304222935787807, 0.013485293276770317, 0.3692116546698668, 0.14820130556400013, 0.6383338584110637, 0.0, 0.3783899666252789, 0.6758790012166334, 1.7142767625938877, 0.09406302267512963, 0.19951820128865796, 0.1990365062817452, 0.28322519079520614, 0.343760601591264, 0.04119840155833965, 0.04790236451040508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2561013161351234, 0.04444313535760009, 0.05968997984078774, 0.2963579922715425, 0.03815671021561097, 0.4077156612311673, 0.0, 0.1267360632818173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06530775978632379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43012353592803326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005119705353099774, 0.0, 0.012757581742051037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10398802078225193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703835447.139028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703835447.139028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9512863605177837, 0.0487136394822163 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 230, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Some people (e.g., [Rodriguez, 2019a](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FfxrwBdBDCg9YTh69/how-many-people-would-be-killed-as-a-direct-result-of-a-us#The_number_of_deaths_caused_by_nuclear_detonations_in_civilian_targets), [2019b](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_nuclear_detonations)) have argued that: \n\n* It's plausible or likely that nuclear conflict would involve some major cities each being hit by multiple detonations (at least if cities are targeted are at all)\n\n* If that happens, it could substantially increase the immediate fatalities and nuclear winter effects from nuclear conflict (since second, third, etc. detonations on cities like New York would have much larger effects than first detonations on much smaller targets)\n\n\n\nThe likelihood of multiple detonations on individual major cities could also be seen as an imperfect proxy for the expected total scale of a nuclear exchange, since such multiple detonations are probably more likely if large-scale [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting occurs.\n\n\n\nAltogether, a higher likelihood of multiple detonations on individual major cities would push in favor of (1) working to reduce nuclear risk and (2) doing so by reducing the chance of large-scale conflicts or countervalue targeting." }, { "id": 8140, "title": "Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?", "short_title": "India have 200+ nuclear warheads by 2024", "url_title": "India have 200+ nuclear warheads by 2024", "slug": "india-have-200-nuclear-warheads-by-2024", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:33:47.809662Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.414128Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8140, "title": "Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:33:47.809662Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\n\n\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated India as having 160 nuclear warheads.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) India is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 200. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It includes warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.\n\n\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).", "fine_print": "If they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "post_id": 8140, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703628592.341943, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703628592.341943, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.016702957167228506 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.497622388238058, 5.768037663082498, 0.15853676328455285, 0.12556157762568784, 0.01837257469423767, 0.08624228024492303, 0.12416523409127544, 0.0, 0.013717439622972769, 0.009753336837936988, 0.06285702875795596, 0.014960519276773152, 0.0032432922868876357, 0.0075547168217016515, 0.0063304658603344135, 0.001162523196727986, 0.0023635982998960903, 0.011496279591175121, 0.0, 0.002159358144129624, 0.3920726054480845, 0.31876126810091066, 0.004802382209163591, 0.0, 0.00460750576210829, 0.0018898706919780247, 0.0, 9.944237270650903e-05, 0.0007723720472053874, 0.0, 0.01703121761827621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003961524713566476, 0.00013664899431769823, 0.0006352343537982259, 0.0, 0.0005711445930730812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002991146036535555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008897281981029862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001786385954838424, 0.09218714701000627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028001816834561364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008236383575324639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.809693405476462, "coverage": 0.999992560011459, "baseline_score": 69.18344530837958, "spot_peer_score": -5.019095282645801, "peer_archived_score": 11.809693405476462, "baseline_archived_score": 69.18344530837958, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.019095282645801 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703835609.54445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703835609.54445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 318, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\n\n\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated India as having 160 nuclear warheads." }, { "id": 8139, "title": "Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?", "short_title": "China Has 420+ warheads on Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "China Has 420+ warheads on Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "china-has-420-warheads-on-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:32:09.099542Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.373851Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 133, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8139, "title": "Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:32:09.099542Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated China as having 350 nuclear warheads, making its stockpile the third largest in the world, though far smaller than that of Russia (6,257) and the US (5,550). \n\nThe Pentagon is [reported](https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/09/01/china-planning-to-double-nuclear-arsenal-pentagon-says/) to estimate that China will double its arsenal during the 2020s.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) China is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on December 31, 2023 exceeds 420. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons, and warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).", "fine_print": "If FAS do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "post_id": 8139, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076767.670547, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076767.670547, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.0697507276964453 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8853307772109659, 6.759680787179355, 1.9995145426644667, 1.053721846838492, 3.2270431887270434, 2.531921452684867, 0.0, 0.6887549734435496, 0.2506566938715948, 0.20693438418080964, 1.080319628015503, 0.019904897165521327, 0.1550301590869543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151146335194397, 0.16766820043614955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09372304225525503, 0.48773783541224774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04748785805881733, 0.0, 0.055360979485375675, 0.0, 0.05656818485625512, 0.08151135144713001, 0.03971847907296287, 0.08687019565602586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11023029160557597, 0.13909246408206993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05168098639056247, 0.003955838877580497, 0.0005353645749357605, 0.0, 0.0014552717956485787, 0.007590043189637977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000360863308118855, 0.14644499549724782, 0.005472568156215704, 0.0, 0.01522763345332026, 0.0030641044197464665, 0.004115958731697636, 0.008031703254096096, 0.12094544537509737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06962664882987565, 0.01746213854417116, 0.006397666936415135, 0.0, 0.010808508164518565, 0.0241779814177198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012468063399496606, 0.0001658983228993753, 0.02345338791782971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008584117833175608, 0.0014856982232822925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019694962065035435, 0.018634731409174585, 0.0, 0.010008111503974924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15184178897613282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012386672706117735 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.827684856403383, "coverage": 0.9999123859992657, "baseline_score": 0.07996582736115095, "spot_peer_score": -21.998228363704698, "peer_archived_score": 17.827684856403383, "baseline_archived_score": 0.07996582736115095, "spot_peer_archived_score": -21.998228363704698 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076767.698242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076767.698242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9942223178185922, 0.005777682181407796 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 487, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated China as having 350 nuclear warheads, making its stockpile the third largest in the world, though far smaller than that of Russia (6,257) and the US (5,550). \n\nThe Pentagon is [reported](https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/09/01/china-planning-to-double-nuclear-arsenal-pentagon-says/) to estimate that China will double its arsenal during the 2020s." }, { "id": 8138, "title": "Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?", "short_title": "2,500+ nuclear weapons ready at short notice", "url_title": "2,500+ nuclear weapons ready at short notice", "slug": "2500-nuclear-weapons-ready-at-short-notice", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:30:13.302126Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.034152Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8138, "title": "Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T21:30:13.302126Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\n\n\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimates there are:\n\n\n\n>\"roughly 13,100 warheads [...]. Of these, nearly 9,600 are in the military stockpiles (the rest are awaiting dismantlement), of which some 3,800 warheads are deployed with operational forces, of which up to 2,000 US, Russian, British and French warheads are on high alert, ready for use on short notice.\"\n\n\n\nAn increase in the number of nuclear weapons that are ready for use on short notice would probably increase the expected number of nuclear weapons that would actually be used (and thus the expected fatalities that would occur) if a nuclear war occurs. It may also increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict occurring in the first place. Finally, changes in the number of nuclear weapons that are ready for use on short notice can be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and maneuvering and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) estimated to be deployed across all states as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 2,500. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. This _excludes_ weapons that are (a) deployed but not on high alert, (b) in reserve/nondeployed, or (c) retired but still intact.\n\n\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703688372.806256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703688372.806256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0387614991183078 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.673064125975492, 7.84332403269155, 0.8677649760147246, 0.0, 0.41646135976017457, 0.5545764023069975, 0.2674415470750466, 0.4131596915243004, 0.09378499354577581, 0.3176661783285516, 0.2288728948107263, 0.03856395089718544, 0.1010847436907371, 0.0, 0.16800285842641247, 0.1896472409073035, 0.010017644440829332, 0.01206526874919091, 0.3453133264613747, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.5024555234907995, 0.06262679204574216, 0.02951742757107075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01008110856495448, 0.002087949332596925, 0.00069754105036468, 0.02072968967681874, 0.0, 0.17476499745746302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034020563898552146, 0.05761052100467517, 0.02451433138720702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019471246905861526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014933198210305589, 0.0, 0.005934237977878183, 0.0, 0.013439135885649942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.217248472001934, "coverage": 0.999709303375656, "baseline_score": 66.6870438609852, "spot_peer_score": 0.003955617966967315, "peer_archived_score": 6.217248472001934, "baseline_archived_score": 66.6870438609852, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.003955617966967315 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703835630.648904, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703835630.648904, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9985882566479946, 0.0014117433520054869 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 239, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\n\n\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimates there are:\n\n\n\n>\"roughly 13,100 warheads [...]. Of these, nearly 9,600 are in the military stockpiles (the rest are awaiting dismantlement), of which some 3,800 warheads are deployed with operational forces, of which up to 2,000 US, Russian, British and French warheads are on high alert, ready for use on short notice.\"\n\n\n\nAn increase in the number of nuclear weapons that are ready for use on short notice would probably increase the expected number of nuclear weapons that would actually be used (and thus the expected fatalities that would occur) if a nuclear war occurs. It may also increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict occurring in the first place. Finally, changes in the number of nuclear weapons that are ready for use on short notice can be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and maneuvering and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk." }, { "id": 8135, "title": "Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?", "short_title": "2+ States Increase Nuclear Arsenals by 2024", "url_title": "2+ States Increase Nuclear Arsenals by 2024", "slug": "2-states-increase-nuclear-arsenals-by-2024", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:45:33.929819Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.979883Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8135, "title": "Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:45:33.929819Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\nCurrently, nine states possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each if those states as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)) \n\n- Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads\n- US: 5,550 nuclear warheads\n- China: 350 nuclear warheads\n- France: 290 nuclear warheads\n- UK: 225 nuclear warheads\n- Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads\n- India: 160 nuclear warheads\n- Israel: 90 nuclear warheads\n- North Korea: sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower\")", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the FAS website shows, at any time between 2021-10-01 and 2023-12-31, that two or more states each have arsenals 25% higher than the estimates given above (i.e., 25% higher than FAS's estimates from May 2021). This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If a state that had no nuclear weapons when this question opened gains an arsenal of at least one assembled nuclear weapon, that would be counted as a state increasing its stockpile size by at least 25%.\n\nIn the case of North Korea, the \"size of their nuclear stockpile\" will refer to the number of warheads that could be assembled using the fissile material they've produced, whether the warheads have been assembled or not.", "fine_print": "If FAS publish no estimates during the whole of 2023, then this question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nNo attempt will be made to distinguish actual increases in arsenal sizes from increases in estimates due to FAS changing their estimation methods or learning new information about what was already true in May 2021. This is mostly for simplicity, but also partly because _some_ implications are the same whether (a) actual increases occur or (b) our current information is an underestimate.", "post_id": 8135, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076315.610006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076315.610006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02930041910849493 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.770795600582339, 10.004274963312918, 1.0851623152011904, 1.52918726480769, 0.3842771803946511, 0.618439078364801, 0.20257089793259664, 0.1268574044917123, 0.10725146031635531, 0.0, 0.2896373626300738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012595000488477455, 0.05493968142435309, 0.04097124753911492, 0.0, 0.06589886937122402, 0.043330466401811686, 0.04792575856020958, 0.3752703542757416, 0.0, 0.0023335645395504605, 0.0, 0.033936457704663754, 0.17374554634249434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016621571921547684, 0.010406908820415128, 0.0, 0.1649896752525058, 0.0, 0.0005115434429027999, 0.09104474410717003, 0.029948704551395144, 0.000341753265518315, 0.0, 0.0021918470511579583, 0.020329368648500747, 0.005970241966942469, 0.0, 0.00022981010860246876, 0.009542356250038873, 0.004580847406824339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030620553889559718, 0.007072263043558621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000660563356454695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035192831194915046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011459945745495245, 0.0, 0.0028010560297325126, 0.0, 0.005086785708793128, 0.0, 0.0002148601638235674, 0.0, 0.004315581753800415, 0.0, 0.002558593546895027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008762104091690526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00697946897032677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012097553414826153 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.247060439288243, "coverage": 0.9999933666762735, "baseline_score": 25.471736645250736, "spot_peer_score": 6.625764577956538, "peer_archived_score": 9.247060439288243, "baseline_archived_score": 25.471736645250736, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.625764577956538 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076315.632287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076315.632287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993273756617285, 0.0006726243382715074 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 462, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\nCurrently, nine states possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each if those states as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)) \n\n- Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads\n- US: 5,550 nuclear warheads\n- China: 350 nuclear warheads\n- France: 290 nuclear warheads\n- UK: 225 nuclear warheads\n- Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads\n- India: 160 nuclear warheads\n- Israel: 90 nuclear warheads\n- North Korea: sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower\")" }, { "id": 8134, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?", "short_title": "Deadly India/China Clash by 2023", "url_title": "Deadly India/China Clash by 2023", "slug": "deadly-indiachina-clash-by-2023", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:40:48.682274Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.075273Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8134, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:40:48.682274Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Queston on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between October 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023, forces serving the Chinese armed forces and the Indian armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.\n\nFor this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n\nAt least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n\nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both China and India", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8134, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672523212.817213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672523212.817213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02366342313397449 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 17.302097866373185, 0.1282960977446369, 0.505163640914499, 0.22201345840227543, 0.1906579248411786, 0.03774184206899544, 0.060792078601301015, 0.035945333277865615, 0.04329928081989271, 0.28527061498523043, 0.01978841662072266, 0.010214689864477239, 0.23703131510688819, 0.008707889412989014, 0.021828246847909967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024395235461833597, 0.010403506694309068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043738243352589167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010158193872277255, 0.0, 0.0005597118379847278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030346089126182594, 0.0, 0.0019392619923805335, 0.0, 0.021177014631405623, 0.17035924692655216, 0.0, 0.001028928720112422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021783457115586336, 0.0, 0.0038434410125903974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006583256623226762, 0.0, 0.14311815425017912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.636315223948908, "coverage": 0.9995083616210684, "baseline_score": 66.33796899592927, "spot_peer_score": 28.426750594189947, "peer_archived_score": 6.636315223948908, "baseline_archived_score": 66.33796899592927, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.426750594189947 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672523212.839893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672523212.839893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 304, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Queston on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 8131, "title": "Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?", "short_title": ">100 Nuclear Detonations by 2024", "url_title": ">100 Nuclear Detonations by 2024", "slug": "100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:32:42.383528Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.249238Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:55:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 165, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8131, "title": "Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:32:42.383528Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T22:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n\n----\n\nCurrently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \n\nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024 is larger than one hundred. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, then this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. That is, this question is conditional on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2024. \n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\n\nMetaculus will consider all credible sources available by January 31, 2024 to determine the correct resolution.", "fine_print": "n a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\n\n\n\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.", "post_id": 8131, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703610885.350585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703610885.350585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.09061104313196158 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.4401525234720873, 3.3206874498531325, 0.06718210504465547, 2.4143861524582277, 0.5966619506846377, 2.5030052566794696, 1.3254533468698815, 0.7624581441001954, 0.18721736833243394, 1.4294860455055969, 1.6125648096345278, 1.0031883788465357, 0.5568736979838377, 0.09002052210646708, 0.0, 1.452947068826605, 0.3894338847199803, 0.028700273201417523, 0.028586926664584695, 0.1189512485429285, 0.5381986194787775, 0.10626378638731032, 0.1671190232099247, 0.07933382535621986, 0.6266541815671912, 0.050088755154744875, 0.07084977054314467, 0.0, 0.005356419810905088, 0.0, 0.005446994268236614, 0.003573784974999305, 0.05256327263214232, 0.7905320259954836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03702236277874399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014365765314732062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006934649933933279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018070550457459766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29338118580904554, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703835687.39119, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703835687.39119, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9880339579953878, 0.011966042004612197 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 392, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n\n----\n\nCurrently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \n\nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)" } ] }
