Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4660
{ "count": 6393, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4680", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4640", "results": [ { "id": 8130, "title": "Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?", "short_title": "North Korea possess material for 100 warheads", "url_title": "North Korea possess material for 100 warheads", "slug": "north-korea-possess-material-for-100-warheads", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:29:51.346223Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.020941Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T16:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T16:22:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8130, "title": "Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:29:51.346223Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T16:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T16:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-16T16:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._", "resolution_criteria": "As of September 28, 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads (whether or not those warheads have actually been assembled).\n\n\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from [the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\n\n\n\nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on the best available information at that time, which may include an ambiguous resolution.\n\n\n\n**Related questions**\n\n* [How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/)\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/).", "fine_print": "For positive resolution, the mid-point of the estimate needs to be at or above 100. Statements such as \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce approximately 100 warheads\" or \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce 80-120 warheads\" would count. Statements such as \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce 90-100 warheads\" would not count.", "post_id": 8130, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076300.954688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076300.954688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.22581002120088603 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.26751656981032473, 1.6370639112282506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5736006223795287, 0.268119918570011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004766249178816012, 1.3029603104907175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7222049027647491, 0.0, 0.9275076156045807, 0.0, 0.026350477753175415, 0.033986653488238996, 0.04346351096687949, 0.9982856903214238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6110129640173659, 0.0, 0.9892522905081949, 0.0, 0.45909126576192855, 1.3875341431417878, 0.0, 0.2775385768567728, 2.0831512627222657, 0.0, 0.15931405185476158, 0.0, 0.8253989244943675, 0.0003468500661995196, 0.01651957554852275, 0.0, 0.4261635760326905, 0.12404737890421068, 0.002693995410734121, 0.822422826419706, 0.11420856681062896, 0.0, 0.038842781196088694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001188479870048893, 1.0523594525498212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031033278471984875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007889847684794025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006230825651377918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06907049790903583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.74870003555351, "coverage": 0.9996972069687876, "baseline_score": 35.16508641782004, "spot_peer_score": -24.9312913401649, "peer_archived_score": 6.74870003555351, "baseline_archived_score": 35.16508641782004, "spot_peer_archived_score": -24.9312913401649 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076300.974734, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076300.974734, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8998869663900331, 0.10011303360996696 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 240, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._" }, { "id": 8129, "title": "Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?", "short_title": "Iran possesses fissile material for warhead", "url_title": "Iran possesses fissile material for warhead", "slug": "iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:27:44.268950Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.454439Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T20:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T20:55:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 118, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8129, "title": "Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:27:44.268950Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T20:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T20:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-04T20:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._", "resolution_criteria": "As of September 28, 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that Iran has enough fissile material to make at least 1 warhead (whether or not that warhead has actually been assembled).\n\n\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform. \n\n\n\nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on best available evidence at the time, or resolve ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8129, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076291.726475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076291.726475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.44190287396239913 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.26623165199424587, 0.4388869685357856, 0.0, 0.6875009899613262, 0.029768298428289708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5401924979613917, 0.6247050592756663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005281365444147849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010828654134764054, 1.323092911756922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021297743975988107, 0.0, 1.8666149947160402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0220385663103149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0059866825919037, 1.0, 0.0, 0.2974390280337567, 0.0, 0.001183031738426886, 0.0, 0.2270771157993483, 1.0660320242574683, 0.0009361948941089192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1468257776419513, 1.470272365557038, 1.3445479540210958, 1.2161622645788985, 0.01612481184026688, 0.0023182354423547605, 0.10425565437420979, 0.8247240092736756, 0.0003848024427075739, 0.0, 0.16500218705072095, 1.0643935717928585, 0.8859420480298575, 0.003419541171126508, 0.004582296826085957, 0.0911753967016847, 0.8378638117179488, 0.26871218984866274, 0.10429385403591182, 0.012499835524601176, 0.13881876106285926, 0.8382219852625798, 0.0, 0.03889041789389143, 0.02420122414348384, 0.0, 0.0653075879207521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06287164242890629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3708724637418189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19335333087329795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.532930250080506 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076291.758836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076291.758836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8693559847188927, 0.1306440152811072 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 367, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._" }, { "id": 8128, "title": "Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?", "short_title": "Smoke Plumes Reach Stratosphere Before 2023", "url_title": "Smoke Plumes Reach Stratosphere Before 2023", "slug": "smoke-plumes-reach-stratosphere-before-2023", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:24:43.750725Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.556644Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-08-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-01T04:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T04:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-03T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8128, "title": "Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:24:43.750725Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T04:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-03T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-08-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-01T04:02:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-08-03T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "One factor affecting the likelihood and severity of [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) is the proportion of the smoke produced due to fires started by nuclear detonations that would reach the stratosphere. This is related to the question of how frequently fires in general produce smoke that reaches the stratosphere. [Robock et al. (2019)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019JD030777) write: \n\n>Firestorms were also observed in World War II and lofted material to high altitudes (see Penner et al., 1986). Moreover, numerous conflagrations in forest fires with fuel densities similar to those assumed by Reisner et al. have produced smoke plumes that reached into the stratosphere (e.g., Peterson et al., 2018). In 2017 a fire in British Columbia produced a stratospheric smoke pall that was observed by satellites for 8 months (Yu et al., 2019). Aircraft studies have shown that debris from recent fires is common in the lower stratosphere (Ditas et al., 2018).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, by March 31, 2023, at least two credible sources report that, between October 1, 2021 and December 31, 2022, at least one fire produced smoke plumes that reached into the stratosphere. \n\n\n\nThese fires can have natural or anthropogenic causes", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8128, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675217021.348599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675217021.348599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6500768448278033 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4842985197522743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035887039941209696, 0.09079275177630637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19277466612226013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038983510779222394, 0.18432660659929007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23378084107778233, 0.72346402117513, 0.0005027948894301332, 2.091863557910022, 0.0, 0.38259480977080873, 5.446358513700833, 0.15438280063381446, 0.10050228527759193, 0.570128228585225, 0.0513821405970935, 0.08648848704180337, 0.6587234763387082, 0.032110469996915025, 0.6445617594835963, 0.01940519925557897, 1.2990540671081527, 0.0, 0.07260559980335923, 0.4018649082725445, 0.0, 0.20731496329363597, 0.00024180497307793418, 0.014957268404199635, 0.30018970671771467, 0.006729698692080564, 0.00454550985145177, 0.20568439241539585, 0.04584995532328869, 0.0, 0.00125373555270061, 0.24904414230524893, 0.014576282762107543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26667636708116577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8454350691754615 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.06452521051514619, "coverage": 0.6223331083971647, "baseline_score": 32.47516765044183, "spot_peer_score": -0.8267613629169827, "peer_archived_score": 0.06452521051514619, "baseline_archived_score": 32.47516765044183, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.8267613629169827 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659426543.299002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659426543.299002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3737404297214235, 0.6262595702785765 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 139, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "One factor affecting the likelihood and severity of [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) is the proportion of the smoke produced due to fires started by nuclear detonations that would reach the stratosphere. This is related to the question of how frequently fires in general produce smoke that reaches the stratosphere. [Robock et al. (2019)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019JD030777) write: \n\n>Firestorms were also observed in World War II and lofted material to high altitudes (see Penner et al., 1986). Moreover, numerous conflagrations in forest fires with fuel densities similar to those assumed by Reisner et al. have produced smoke plumes that reached into the stratosphere (e.g., Peterson et al., 2018). In 2017 a fire in British Columbia produced a stratospheric smoke pall that was observed by satellites for 8 months (Yu et al., 2019). Aircraft studies have shown that debris from recent fires is common in the lower stratosphere (Ditas et al., 2018)." }, { "id": 8127, "title": "Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?", "short_title": "Nuclear detonation on a capital by 2024", "url_title": "Nuclear detonation on a capital by 2024", "slug": "nuclear-detonation-on-a-capital-by-2024", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:21:55.241548Z", "published_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.853567Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8127, "title": "Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-10-04T20:21:55.241548Z", "open_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nuclear conflict could involve detonations on capital cities, whether as part of [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targeting (because capitals often contain militarily relevant targets) or as part of [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting . The likelihood of detonations on capital cities has substantial implications for estimates of just how harmful a nuclear conflict would be, in part because capitals are often especially densely populated, such that detonations on them could lead to large death tolls and substantial amounts of smoke being lofted into the atmosphere (potentially contributing to [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects; see also [Rodriguez, 2019](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_counterforce_targeting))", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, by 2024, there is at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city. It resolves negatively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 but none of the detonations meet that criterion. It resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation after this question opens and before 2024.\n\n\n\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, either a strike intended to kill civilians or a strike intended to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a capital city could both count towards this proportion.\n\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.", "fine_print": "Detonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city\".\n\n\n\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\n\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8127, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076168.950858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076168.950858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.17348358032920674 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3223700103383946, 0.04463644984976473, 1.0, 0.07133494818444731, 1.1339212017502274, 0.29779178426847513, 0.0, 0.0978075539315639, 0.037869149508909655, 2.136982086424646, 0.1783898312420707, 0.14585398402333088, 0.8434254055651973, 0.0, 0.8638278527126616, 0.6743873733504107, 0.7972775957457953, 0.3802240356160521, 0.22949047801759617, 1.531315796477757, 0.8494340996364325, 0.14096725191963505, 0.0029988785395327496, 0.0, 0.9260759375133447, 0.0, 0.573601365905194, 0.6685922442185943, 0.0, 0.37416095470826527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004805255033221691, 0.0015881406163327676, 0.16690946789911046, 0.0, 0.08910285564825525, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0896848140831108, 0.004513713150276017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013931281558975482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.357933793421635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025516032229147665, 0.0, 0.0003861035604651628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076168.9795, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076168.9795, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9405965033592064, 0.059403496640793606 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 207, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nuclear conflict could involve detonations on capital cities, whether as part of [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targeting (because capitals often contain militarily relevant targets) or as part of [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting . The likelihood of detonations on capital cities has substantial implications for estimates of just how harmful a nuclear conflict would be, in part because capitals are often especially densely populated, such that detonations on them could lead to large death tolls and substantial amounts of smoke being lofted into the atmosphere (potentially contributing to [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects; see also [Rodriguez, 2019](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_counterforce_targeting))" }, { "id": 8121, "title": "By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?", "short_title": "Will China Violate Taiwan's Airspace?", "url_title": "Will China Violate Taiwan's Airspace?", "slug": "will-china-violate-taiwans-airspace", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-03T15:15:45.223790Z", "published_at": "2021-10-08T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.996579Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-08T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-02T16:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-02T16:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-03T21:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-03T21:07:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-08T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8121, "title": "By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?", "created_at": "2021-10-03T15:15:45.223790Z", "open_time": "2021-10-08T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-10T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-10T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-03T21:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-03T21:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-03T21:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-02T16:14:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-02T16:14:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whenever Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) without authorization from Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, it creates international headlines and increases cross-straits tensions. As of the creation of this question, the latest example of such an incursion was when [Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan's ADIZ on 3 October 2021](https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/02/asia/china-warplanes-taiwan-air-defense-intl-hnk/index.html). Please see the map of their flight path through Taiwan's ADIZ [here](https://imgur.com/lML4CCn). \n\nFor purposes of this question, the borders of Taiwan's airspace is considered to be 12 nautical miles out from its coastline.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively upon aircraft of the People's Liberation Army Air Force entering Taiwan's airspace without authorization. Otherwise it resolves negatively. Resolves per credible media reporting.", "fine_print": "Entering Taiwan's [ADIZ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) without also entering Taiwan's airspace does not resolve the question as yes.", "post_id": 8121, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638455166.228421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638455166.228421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11538797413751113 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8093622670414395, 0.0, 0.7676248868101384, 0.7567875495527383, 2.132645509219288, 0.7293796344877741, 0.5044513853022176, 2.3479060597921966, 0.2757519730930862, 1.905915983683063, 0.9780715117646398, 0.6559308688013279, 0.35445145906544057, 0.014824796017118348, 0.27656512360001345, 0.06653606556967397, 0.0030463571209371912, 0.30245882474451835, 0.0, 1.698877699114616, 0.010803794281517749, 0.03453192803547644, 0.7591100729306055, 0.0, 0.12118541157380776, 0.0, 0.001557486043652286, 0.5482846722794743, 0.0, 0.0376477651787916, 0.0, 0.5351799653034296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03575986136151518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01640066199948675, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026106503329410956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04099300666205092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006246102070092039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.437391146954234, "coverage": 0.9968524134092621, "baseline_score": 68.28622308481557, "spot_peer_score": -21.96746568005583, "peer_archived_score": 8.437391146954234, "baseline_archived_score": 68.28622308481557, "spot_peer_archived_score": -21.96746568005583 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638455166.279561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638455166.279561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9518928652001054, 0.04810713479989458 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 192, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whenever Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) without authorization from Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, it creates international headlines and increases cross-straits tensions. As of the creation of this question, the latest example of such an incursion was when [Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan's ADIZ on 3 October 2021](https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/02/asia/china-warplanes-taiwan-air-defense-intl-hnk/index.html). Please see the map of their flight path through Taiwan's ADIZ [here](https://imgur.com/lML4CCn). \n\nFor purposes of this question, the borders of Taiwan's airspace is considered to be 12 nautical miles out from its coastline." }, { "id": 8118, "title": "Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?", "short_title": "Solana Stays a Top-10 Cryptocurrency in 2022", "url_title": "Solana Stays a Top-10 Cryptocurrency in 2022", "slug": "solana-stays-a-top-10-cryptocurrency-in-2022", "author_id": 118137, "author_username": "turbofish", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-02T16:18:52.746045Z", "published_at": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.545694Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8118, "title": "Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?", "created_at": "2021-10-02T16:18:52.746045Z", "open_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-22T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-22T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Solana is a proof-of-stake cryptocurrency that gained significantly in popularity (and market cap) in 2021 due to its high transaction capacity.\n\nAt time of writing (1/2022), it is the #7 cryptocurrency by market cap – [$43b USD](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/solana/) – per [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/). For reference, the #10 cryptocurrency is [Polkadot](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/polkadot-new/) (DOT), with $25b USD market cap.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Solana (SOL) is ranked within the top-10 cryptocurrencies, as determined by market cap on Dec 31, 2022, according to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/).", "fine_print": "If Solana drops below the top-10 at some point before Dec 31, 2022, but is within the top-10 at time of resolution on Dec 31, 2022, then this question still resolves positively.", "post_id": 8118, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672461718.766711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672461718.766711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01542266694380073 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 15.706390047628565, 0.23497585900574333, 0.4299703397684452, 1.1133850691781426, 0.029277214961043362, 0.26480556229558944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03922471792987073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01111780621856027, 0.0, 0.016121599020506437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004812874465935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006704717103507414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001673606129161287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008259590827765978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008677486979024548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007081800871069267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016972687722069135, 0.0, 0.005627370689758271, 0.0007131134940337824, 0.0010416673899746396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004377964974526935, 0.0019669756877948225, 0.0029605613936121693, 0.00428463878637901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003479997114823738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005287363673422299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.36854163220494, "coverage": 0.9999676315186823, "baseline_score": -38.5583931883227, "spot_peer_score": 24.886944640728817, "peer_archived_score": 17.36854163220494, "baseline_archived_score": -38.5583931883227, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.886944640728817 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672472208.226879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672472208.226879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 287, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Solana is a proof-of-stake cryptocurrency that gained significantly in popularity (and market cap) in 2021 due to its high transaction capacity.\n\nAt time of writing (1/2022), it is the #7 cryptocurrency by market cap – [$43b USD](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/solana/) – per [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/). For reference, the #10 cryptocurrency is [Polkadot](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/polkadot-new/) (DOT), with $25b USD market cap." }, { "id": 8110, "title": "Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?", "short_title": "Saudi-Israel normalization if Iran bomb", "url_title": "Saudi-Israel normalization if Iran bomb", "slug": "saudi-israel-normalization-if-iran-bomb", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-01T23:41:43.329370Z", "published_at": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:18:41.118881Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8110, "title": "Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?", "created_at": "2021-10-01T23:41:43.329370Z", "open_time": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-14T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-14T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2020, Israel [normalized](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords) relations with the [United Arab Emirates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_Arab_Emirates_relations), [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain%E2%80%93Israel_normalization_agreement), and [Morocco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Morocco_normalization_agreement) in the [Abraham Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords). This comes in the face of [increasing cooperation](https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-new-us-israel-uae-india-minilateral-in-a-changing-west-asia/) between the United States, Israel, and the Gulf countries who all face a threat from Iran and [have](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#United_States_views) [expressed](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210927-iran-s-nuclear-program-has-crossed-all-red-lines-israel-pm-1) [concern](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-nuclear-activity-is-concerning-says-saudi-official-2021-07-09/) about Iran's nuclear program. A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/) asked if Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in 2021.", "resolution_criteria": "If [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves positively (i.e. the Iranian Regime credibly states it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports), then this question will resolve positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the State of Israel is legally recognized by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia before 2031-01-01, and negatively otherwise. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. 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This comes in the face of [increasing cooperation](https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-new-us-israel-uae-india-minilateral-in-a-changing-west-asia/) between the United States, Israel, and the Gulf countries who all face a threat from Iran and [have](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#United_States_views) [expressed](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210927-iran-s-nuclear-program-has-crossed-all-red-lines-israel-pm-1) [concern](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-nuclear-activity-is-concerning-says-saudi-official-2021-07-09/) about Iran's nuclear program. A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/) asked if Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in 2021." }, { "id": 8109, "title": "Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran does not get a nuclear bomb by then?", "short_title": "Saudi-Israel Normalization if No Iran Bomb", "url_title": "Saudi-Israel Normalization if No Iran Bomb", "slug": "saudi-israel-normalization-if-no-iran-bomb", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-01T23:41:37.255238Z", "published_at": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T08:44:52.325011Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": 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"resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2020, Israel [normalized](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords) relations with the [United Arab Emirates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_Arab_Emirates_relations), [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain%E2%80%93Israel_normalization_agreement), and [Morocco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Morocco_normalization_agreement) in the [Abraham Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords). This comes in the face of [increasing cooperation](https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-new-us-israel-uae-india-minilateral-in-a-changing-west-asia/) between the United States, Israel, and the Gulf countries who all face a threat from Iran and [have](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#United_States_views) [expressed](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210927-iran-s-nuclear-program-has-crossed-all-red-lines-israel-pm-1) [concern](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-nuclear-activity-is-concerning-says-saudi-official-2021-07-09/) about Iran's nuclear program. A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/) asked if Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in 2021.", "resolution_criteria": "If [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves negatively (i.e. the Iranian Regime credibly states it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports), then this question will resolve positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the State of Israel is legally recognized by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia before 2031-01-01, and negatively otherwise. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. If [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves positively or ambiguously, this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8109, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763412286.488919, "end_time": 1764337839.239928, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763412286.488919, "end_time": 1764337839.239928, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6011504719010116 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.08970045617751038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.05992920206592716, 0.14731282932738304, 0.27326944033139156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9096780712946189, 0.0, 1.0035670532910974, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.38043555332875517, 0.12856727458371708, 1.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0411086077723675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14429583051459935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0351805047500904 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289766.874684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289766.874684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5256394961539683, 0.4743605038460317 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 167, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2020, Israel [normalized](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords) relations with the [United Arab Emirates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_Arab_Emirates_relations), [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain%E2%80%93Israel_normalization_agreement), and [Morocco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Morocco_normalization_agreement) in the [Abraham Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords). This comes in the face of [increasing cooperation](https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-new-us-israel-uae-india-minilateral-in-a-changing-west-asia/) between the United States, Israel, and the Gulf countries who all face a threat from Iran and [have](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#United_States_views) [expressed](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210927-iran-s-nuclear-program-has-crossed-all-red-lines-israel-pm-1) [concern](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-nuclear-activity-is-concerning-says-saudi-official-2021-07-09/) about Iran's nuclear program. A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/) asked if Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in 2021." }, { "id": 8106, "title": "Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?", "short_title": "Senolytics for Pets before People", "url_title": "Senolytics for Pets before People", "slug": "senolytics-for-pets-before-people", "author_id": 118978, "author_username": "dmunro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-01T17:09:07.593710Z", "published_at": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.610902Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8106, "title": "Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?", "created_at": "2021-10-01T17:09:07.593710Z", "open_time": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-18T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-18T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/) asks about the approval for commercial sale of human senolytics, drugs that induce removal of senescent cells to delay or reverse aging. Other types of anti-aging therapies are [being developed for dogs](https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/05/09/142971/a-stealthy-harvard-startup-wants-to-reverse-aging-in-dogs-and-humans-could-be-next/), with the benefit of serving as stepping stones to similar therapies for humans, helping to fill scientific, financial, and regulatory gaps.", "resolution_criteria": "Similar to the linked question’s criterion, “an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells”. This function must be verified by a reputable third party, such as the FDA or major medical journals. An impact on lifespan need not be demonstrated for either the animal or the human therapy.", "fine_print": "If a therapy for animals is sold before a human therapy is approved and sold, but the animal therapy is only verified by a third party afterwards, the question will still resolve positively.", "post_id": 8106, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762988182.403663, "end_time": 1763797543.881034, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762988182.403663, "end_time": 1763797543.881034, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.7327588637003691 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321, 0.09153308219070486, 0.32526806357643256, 0.4158083589503392, 2.7779658948152157, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8841702665978781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289796.296243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289796.296243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3354716312389645, 0.6645283687610355 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/) asks about the approval for commercial sale of human senolytics, drugs that induce removal of senescent cells to delay or reverse aging. Other types of anti-aging therapies are [being developed for dogs](https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/05/09/142971/a-stealthy-harvard-startup-wants-to-reverse-aging-in-dogs-and-humans-could-be-next/), with the benefit of serving as stepping stones to similar therapies for humans, helping to fill scientific, financial, and regulatory gaps." }, { "id": 8105, "title": "Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?", "short_title": "World Population Recovery If <400M People", "url_title": "World Population Recovery If <400M People", "slug": "world-population-recovery-if-400m-people", "author_id": 115774, "author_username": "MichaelA", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-01T16:57:04.826240Z", "published_at": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.978920Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "3000-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8105, "title": "Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?", "created_at": "2021-10-01T16:57:04.826240Z", "open_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-06T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-06T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "3000-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a [global biological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), an [artificial intelligence catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [nuclear catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [global climate disaster](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/), and a [global nanotechnology catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/).) \n\nSuch questions are especially important from a [longtermist](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hilary-greaves-william-macaskill-the-case-for-strong-longtermism/) perspective and if they are diagnostic of the chance of extinction or some other existential catastrophe. [Another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/) asks how likely extinction is within 20 years of such a population decline. This question is intended as an imperfect proxy for the chance of another type of existential catastrophe: Unrecoverable [collapse](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/civilizational-collapse). \n\n(See also [How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/).)\n\n***Will human population size recover to 5b by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400m without extinction occurring within 20 years?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to below 400 million sometime before 2100, extinction doesn't occur within 20 years of that population decline, and the population recovers to >5 billion people sometime by the year 3000 (whether or not it remains >5 billion in the year 3000). The question resolves negatively if the population falls to below 400 million by 2100, extinction doesn't occur within 20 years, and the population remains below 5 billion from then till the year 3000 (whether this involves extinction or not, and regardless of what happens after 3000). The question resolves ambiguously if the population never falls below 400 million before 2100 or if extinction occurs within 20 years of such a population fall.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are creatures who at least one 2021 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n\nAs stated on [another question about such extreme events](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n>\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\n\n[fine-print]\nFor simplicity, this question will not attempt to distinguish truly unrecoverable collapses from \"merely\" those in which no recover occurs until after 3000 and will not attempt to consider any dimensions of collapse or recovery other than population size.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8105, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741955364.561704, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741955364.561704, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], 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"MichaelA", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-01T16:17:23.417102Z", "published_at": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-05T19:49:21.368884Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2125-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8103, "title": "Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?", "created_at": "2021-10-01T16:17:23.417102Z", "open_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-06T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-06T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2125-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a [global biological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), an [artificial intelligence catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [nuclear catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [global climate disaster](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/), and a [global nanotechnology catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/).) \n\nSuch questions are especially important from a [longtermist](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hilary-greaves-william-macaskill-the-case-for-strong-longtermism/) perspective and if they are diagnostic of the chance of extinction or some other existential catastrophe. Indeed, the questions were framed as partly intending to get at extinction risk. But how likely _is_ extinction, given a 95% population loss? \n\n(See also [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100), [How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/), and a soon-to-be-released question intended to get at the likelihood of unrecoverable [collapse](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/civilizational-collapse) given a 95% population loss.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the human population falls to below 400 million by 2100 and, within 20 years of the population falling below that level, there are no longer any living humans. The extinction could occur at the exact same time as the initial population decline (if some event instantly causes extinction), gradually over the course of 20 years, or anywhere in between.\n\nThe question resolves negatively if the population falls to below 400 million by 2100 but extinction doesn't occur within 20 years. The question resolves ambiguously if the population never falls below 400 million before 2100.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are creatures who at least one 2021 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n\nAs stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n>\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8103, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759693751.021377, "end_time": 1765472051.724629, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759693751.021377, "end_time": 1765472051.724629, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.33779833425232386 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3937762559534268, 1.372747406272594, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5958953543233859, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.7018398453919814, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5517307259942262, 0.0, 0.46079246039023625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.12123949967472628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.28697040130296847 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288216.14178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288216.14178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7546788320564596, 0.2453211679435404 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 132, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a [global biological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), an [artificial intelligence catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [nuclear catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [global climate disaster](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/), and a [global nanotechnology catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/).) \n\nSuch questions are especially important from a [longtermist](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hilary-greaves-william-macaskill-the-case-for-strong-longtermism/) perspective and if they are diagnostic of the chance of extinction or some other existential catastrophe. Indeed, the questions were framed as partly intending to get at extinction risk. But how likely _is_ extinction, given a 95% population loss? \n\n(See also [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100), [How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/), and a soon-to-be-released question intended to get at the likelihood of unrecoverable [collapse](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/civilizational-collapse) given a 95% population loss.)" }, { "id": 8102, "title": "Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?", "short_title": "Times University Ranking 2023", "url_title": "Times University Ranking 2023", "slug": "times-university-ranking-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-01T08:50:04.490538Z", "published_at": "2021-10-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.362540Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-08-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T14:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T14:34:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8102, "title": "Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?", "created_at": "2021-10-01T08:50:04.490538Z", "open_time": "2021-10-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-18T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T14:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T14:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-16T14:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-08-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In September 2021, the University of St Andrews placed first in the UK on the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2022. This was the first time in the guide's 30-year history that neither Oxford nor Cambridge placed first. \nhttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-university-rankings-revealed-the-times-league-table-dbxtwgm70", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if neither Oxford nor Cambridges places first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023. It resolves negative if Oxford or Cambridge place first. It will resolve ambiguously if the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide is discontinued. \n\nThe ranking will be published in late September 2022. 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This was the first time in the guide's 30-year history that neither Oxford nor Cambridge placed first. \nhttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-university-rankings-revealed-the-times-league-table-dbxtwgm70" }, { "id": 8101, "title": "Will Yair Lapid be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030?", "short_title": "Lapid PM by 2030", "url_title": "Lapid PM by 2030", "slug": "lapid-pm-by-2030", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-01T04:09:15.705369Z", "published_at": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.856357Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-30T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8101, "title": "Will Yair Lapid be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-10-01T04:09:15.705369Z", "open_time": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-13T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-13T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-30T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-30T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Yair Lapid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yair_Lapid) is Israel's Foreign Minister. He formed the [current government of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-sixth_government_of_Israel) but allowed Naftali Bennett to be Prime Minister first. Lapid is scheduled to become Prime Minister in 2023 in a rotation agreement. The government may collapse before that date. Lapid's liberal, secular, Zionist, and pro two-state solution [Yesh Atid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yesh_Atid) party has performed [well](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election) in Israeli opinion polls, and so Lapid could become Prime Minister even if the government collapses before the rotation agreement takes effect.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Lapid becomes Prime Minister of Israel before January 1, 2030 as reported by reliable media outlets", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8101, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656625493.846006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656625493.846006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9181186978161076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2809890851533694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13499904508114363, 0.04795610324820406, 0.0, 0.23476788075709235, 0.030582322570402463, 0.0, 0.992477509394244, 0.06737143295391024, 0.0, 0.2076741797587099, 0.013841141009878904, 0.06032709531608127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07504299001539197, 0.0, 0.05386841605942722, 0.0, 0.02094104731107989, 0.008986881027308354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44961249434629236, 1.2269857584285022, 0.007981569988183952, 0.0, 0.8705052744070133, 1.224478930308495, 0.5644485981864586, 0.0, 0.9409777244754209, 0.0, 5.551986191472694 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.13268899020720523, "coverage": 0.06848572244369813, "baseline_score": 4.516168048526911, "spot_peer_score": 3.5876888064121752, "peer_archived_score": 0.13268899020720523, "baseline_archived_score": 4.516168048526911, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.5876888064121752 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656559706.364943, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656559706.364943, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07906468922008147, 0.9209353107799185 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Yair Lapid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yair_Lapid) is Israel's Foreign Minister. He formed the [current government of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-sixth_government_of_Israel) but allowed Naftali Bennett to be Prime Minister first. Lapid is scheduled to become Prime Minister in 2023 in a rotation agreement. The government may collapse before that date. Lapid's liberal, secular, Zionist, and pro two-state solution [Yesh Atid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yesh_Atid) party has performed [well](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election) in Israeli opinion polls, and so Lapid could become Prime Minister even if the government collapses before the rotation agreement takes effect." }, { "id": 8095, "title": "Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?", "short_title": "LDP wins 2021 general election", "url_title": "LDP wins 2021 general election", "slug": "ldp-wins-2021-general-election", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-29T18:44:55.258457Z", "published_at": "2021-10-02T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.014438Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-02T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-30T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-30T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-31T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-02T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8095, "title": "Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?", "created_at": "2021-09-29T18:44:55.258457Z", "open_time": "2021-10-02T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-04T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-04T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-31T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-30T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-30T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Japan is governed by a bicameral legislature, the [House of Councillors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Councillors_(Japan)) and the [House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_(Japan)). The House of Representatives has greater power, and has the role of appointing the Prime Minister of Japan. The House of Representatives will hold an election no later than 2021-11-28, while the House of Councillors is due for an election in 2022.\n\nIn January 2021, [Dylan Matthews predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) 90% that LDP would continue to govern Japan:\n\n>The Liberal Democratic Party’s grip on Japan [...] [is] not absolute. Japan has had brief periods of non-LDP rule, such as when the opposition Democratic Party held office from 2009 to 2012, but they have tended to be short-lived, and the opposition to the LDP is prone to factionalism and infighting. Polling suggests the party and new Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide don’t face any serious opposition in 2021. It doesn’t hurt that the country has weathered Covid-19 exceptionally well.\n\nSince January, Suga announced he would not seek re-election, leading the LDP to select [Fumio Kishida](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fumio_Kishida) as the next leader of the LDP.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, after the 2021 election, the Liberal Democratic Party forms a governing coalition in the House of Representatives. The election may be scheduled between late October and November, so the question will close retroactively 24 hours before polls open", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8095, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635769105.199451, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635769105.199451, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8858971236998552 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2633194438431117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.4272172004854206, 0.7788187906173565, 0.49919970777631545, 0.012460834330696993, 0.01885548841701457, 0.7817930627435381, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 1.2709381198827079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.489520046719219 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.190704898927572, "coverage": 0.9912549408391197, "baseline_score": 69.39355913457491, "spot_peer_score": 4.643393389119689, "peer_archived_score": 3.190704898927572, "baseline_archived_score": 69.39355913457491, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.643393389119689 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635521120.05803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635521120.05803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.15231439172066263, 0.8476856082793374 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Japan is governed by a bicameral legislature, the [House of Councillors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Councillors_(Japan)) and the [House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_(Japan)). The House of Representatives has greater power, and has the role of appointing the Prime Minister of Japan. The House of Representatives will hold an election no later than 2021-11-28, while the House of Councillors is due for an election in 2022.\n\nIn January 2021, [Dylan Matthews predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) 90% that LDP would continue to govern Japan:\n\n>The Liberal Democratic Party’s grip on Japan [...] [is] not absolute. Japan has had brief periods of non-LDP rule, such as when the opposition Democratic Party held office from 2009 to 2012, but they have tended to be short-lived, and the opposition to the LDP is prone to factionalism and infighting. Polling suggests the party and new Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide don’t face any serious opposition in 2021. It doesn’t hurt that the country has weathered Covid-19 exceptionally well.\n\nSince January, Suga announced he would not seek re-election, leading the LDP to select [Fumio Kishida](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fumio_Kishida) as the next leader of the LDP." }, { "id": 8093, "title": "Will an effort to coordinate foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?", "short_title": "Moving US voters by 2030", "url_title": "Moving US voters by 2030", "slug": "moving-us-voters-by-2030", "author_id": 118616, "author_username": "samuelraasch", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-29T02:26:09.399870Z", "published_at": "2021-10-22T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T00:05:51.193591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-22T01:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-27T02:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-22T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8093, "title": "Will an effort to coordinate foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-09-29T02:26:09.399870Z", "open_time": "2021-10-22T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-24T01:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-24T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-27T02:17:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-27T02:17:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The US Declaration of Independence refers to the concept of the [consent of the governed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consent_of_the_governed), that governance and its associated authority are derived from the will of the people. A lack of consent may lead to revolution in extreme cases. In modern America, citizens typically interact with governance by voting and advocating for representatives and preferred policies, or by moving to another jurisdiction with governance that already more closely aligns with their current interests.\n\n[Foot voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_voting) is the \"physical migration to leave a situation one does not like, or to move to a situation one regards as more beneficial.” America has a rich history of migration and de facto foot voting. The westward movement of citizens via Manifest Destiny, the [Mormons’ mass exodus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mormon_pioneers) to Utah, and the movement of African Americans to northern cities are historic examples of foot voting in America. Although such radical migrations are less visible today, Americans still move with regularity, and federalism allows American jurisdictions to compete for residents based on tax policy, healthcare, education, job opportunities and other aspects of governance.\n\nIn 2001, the [Free State Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_State_Project) (FSP), a non-profit organization, explicitly encouraged Americans to move to New Hampshire to support and influence the state’s governance. Participants were asked to sign a statement of intent to move to New Hampshire within five years of reaching 20,000 signatories. In 2016, the threshold was met. There were almost 2,000 early movers, and by 2021, over 5,000 of the original signees had purportedly moved to NH, and 17 state representatives [self-identified as Free Staters](https://freestateprojectwatch.org/fsp-members-in-nh-state-senate-house-2017-2018/) in the 2017-2018 session. FSP asserts that it no longer actively aims for a specific number of voters to move. Regardless, this is both objectively impressive and evidence that this kind of coordination is extremely difficult. FSP legitimately changed NH politics but only 25% of these motivated Americans found it viable to move.\n\nThe Free State Project is a seminal example of foot voting that was coordinated, which refers to the intentional effort to coordinate foot voting en masse to increase the value of individual votes.\n\n***Will a coordinated effort at foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if any organization, platform or group publicly self-proclaims that they have moved 10,000+ residents to a single state by Jan 1, 2030 with the intention of voting en masse. Claims must be corroborated by credible media reports, and in the case of ambiguity, Metaculus Admins will make a determination at their discretion. We’re specifically interested in modern and relatively acute instances of CFV, so the effort should have started on or after January 1, 2016, shortly before FSP officially started counting movers (If for example, the FSP reaches 10,000 moved to NH by 2030, this will resolve the question positively). This question resolves negatively if no projects have moved 10,000+ residents to a single state.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8093, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763597170.523424, "end_time": 1766016339.28, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.249 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2617028690398061 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763597170.523424, "end_time": 1766016339.28, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.249 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2617028690398061 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.751, 0.249 ], "means": [ 0.24160000731672251 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.8916747079458253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 1.0, 1.0549745380698368, 0.22188647333713657, 0.27467474026865935, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 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"key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 8074, "title": "If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?", "short_title": "Existence of macrofauna on an icy moon", "url_title": "Existence of macrofauna on an icy moon", "slug": "existence-of-macrofauna-on-an-icy-moon", "author_id": 109744, "author_username": "Kostas", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-27T20:25:52.464005Z", "published_at": "2021-10-21T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T08:12:56.057081Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-21T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2038-11-19T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2200-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-21T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8074, "title": "If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?", "created_at": "2021-09-27T20:25:52.464005Z", "open_time": "2021-10-21T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-22T22:15:29.072877Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-22T22:15:29.072877Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2200-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2038-11-19T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2038-11-19T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The icy moons of the outer solar system are one of the most promising places in the search for life in the present time in our solar system. Several of them, e.g. Europa and Enceladus, are assumed to satisfy the conditions for hosting microbial life: liquid water in vast oceans under an ice cover, sufficient energy and the appropriate chemicals. However, it remains unclear whether an icy moon has the appropriate conditions for hosting macrofauna; for example, whether there are mechanisms available for the transfer of a sufficient amount of oxygen to the ocean. \n\nSeveral mission concepts exist to search for extant life on one of these moons. The more ambitious of them involve landing a spacecraft and deploying a melting probe to drill through several kilometers of ice to reach the subglacial ocean. Once there, a submersible can investigate the ocean for extant life. Such a challenging mission would most likely take place sometime in the second half 21st century. It would be possible that such a mission could be equipped to not only detect microbial life but also any existing macrofauna.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if at least two national space agencies publicly state they believe the existence of macrofauna native to the ocean of an icy moon has been confirmed. Confirmed life may be currently alive, or dead (such that we find fossilized remains). Discoveries of life and macrofauna need not occur at the same time, nor in the same place.\n\nIf we do not discover any evidence of life on an icy moon by 2200, this question will resolve ambiguously. If we discover life on an icy moon but do not find macrofauna, this question resolves negative. If we discover life somewhere else (for example, on Mars) but find no life on an icy moon, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, \"macrofauna\" is defined as any multicellular organism larger than the approximate minimum resolution of the naked eye (0.1 mm). In other words, any multicellular organism that would be retained on a 0.1 mm mesh.", "fine_print": "An \"icy moon\" is defined here as any natural body in the outer solar system (asteroid belt and beyond) with a current stable body of liquid water, excluding the gas giant planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune).", "post_id": 8074, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763567495.146024, "end_time": 1771572797.774382, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763567495.146024, "end_time": 1771572797.774382, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.14051393607332913 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.39823465489742926, 0.6257304587135947, 0.40163061964206165, 0.43762548273588286, 1.6459201352924187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11519676350251623, 0.3056000975724265, 1.883322600795585, 0.0, 1.5036602142440603, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4610835483952065, 0.048426974058352196, 1.001006234437118, 0.4482977324842707, 0.0, 0.10286368260463565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12864818019422197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03108680207201517, 0.0, 0.6782416881858238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2613886343686929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003576932888935743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07184461761248319, 0.21562164146808224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287748.641353, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287748.641353, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9649987701066195, 0.03500122989338054 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 153, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The icy moons of the outer solar system are one of the most promising places in the search for life in the present time in our solar system. Several of them, e.g. Europa and Enceladus, are assumed to satisfy the conditions for hosting microbial life: liquid water in vast oceans under an ice cover, sufficient energy and the appropriate chemicals. However, it remains unclear whether an icy moon has the appropriate conditions for hosting macrofauna; for example, whether there are mechanisms available for the transfer of a sufficient amount of oxygen to the ocean. \n\nSeveral mission concepts exist to search for extant life on one of these moons. The more ambitious of them involve landing a spacecraft and deploying a melting probe to drill through several kilometers of ice to reach the subglacial ocean. Once there, a submersible can investigate the ocean for extant life. Such a challenging mission would most likely take place sometime in the second half 21st century. 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Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of Israel's opposition has been [on trial](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu) in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. In January 2022, it was reported that Netanyahu is [negotiating a](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/middleeast/benjamin-netanyahu-plea-deal-israel-intl/index.html) [plea deal](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/19/netanyahu-plea-bargain-israel-politics/). However, it was reported then that he [rejected the deal](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-694414) because it would ban him from politics. It is [generally believed](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-694414) that any success to Mandelblit will not offer any sort of plea deal as generous as the one Mandelblit is offering. Mandelblit is stepping down on February 1.\n\n***Will Netanyahu be convicted by 2030?***\n\nThis will resolve positively on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge of Case 1000, Case 2000, or Case 4000. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial will not count for positive resolution. If the charges are dropped it will resolve negative. 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But he faces [a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region](https://theconversation.com/tigray-war-antagonists-are-reluctant-to-talk-peace-why-and-whats-next-168193), which is [battering his economy](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58319977) and leading to [increasing](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/09/17/background-press-call-by-senior-administration-officials-on-ethiopia/) international [pressure](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2021/09/24/biden-administration-considering-tigray-genocide-determination/).", "resolution_criteria": "A \"significant leadership disruption\" includes confirmed reports that Abiy has:\n\n* resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date),\n* lost a confidence vote,\n* lost an election,\n* formally left office,\n* died,\n* been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days,\n* fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days,\n* been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days,\n* been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days.\n\nResolution will be according to reliable published reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8053, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735696071.161473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735696071.161473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.060677299971065586 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.857010680329017, 2.2541375647078077, 0.2343430380562021, 1.74730069003938, 0.5350055731436427, 1.3796808105288467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43396219038456774, 0.3366590372953572, 0.0, 0.11739512936746152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27073254535969177, 0.0, 0.2519762019484688, 0.2022157807035323, 0.0, 0.7138069675695762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04045340951854798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05904837310470422, 0.07066749202653273, 0.06464403137870212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10682462193375401, 0.0, 0.08410645441221705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05385505242225807, 0.0445799336120917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002410864867589271, 0.0018241815415611054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02413606297484375, 0.010410228191898815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0331191247199604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026884426431469374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011871193631835357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038958762161251846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006710788861047596, 0.0, 0.027185693275408186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004958639536235962, 0.006805670804060742, 0.0, 0.0134789797452288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0041768548738893045, 0.005832286250484877, 0.021612403177388988, 0.0, 0.003479479546953281, 0.0028594267247472834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01949033871228176 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 8.442671955725762, "peer_score": 49.414752620604915, "coverage": 0.9998081674186601, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998081674186601, "spot_peer_score": 22.973647650479904, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830476, "baseline_archived_score": 8.442671955725762, "peer_archived_score": 49.414752620604915, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.973647650479904, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830476 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289766.639779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289766.639779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9841897914104649, 0.01581020858953512 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 407, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was [re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57791868). But he faces [a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region](https://theconversation.com/tigray-war-antagonists-are-reluctant-to-talk-peace-why-and-whats-next-168193), which is [battering his economy](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58319977) and leading to [increasing](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/09/17/background-press-call-by-senior-administration-officials-on-ethiopia/) international [pressure](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2021/09/24/biden-administration-considering-tigray-genocide-determination/)." }, { "id": 8051, "title": "Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "short_title": "100 Deaths from China-US Conflict before 2050", "url_title": "100 Deaths from China-US Conflict before 2050", "slug": "100-deaths-from-china-us-conflict-before-2050", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-25T16:08:14.314134Z", "published_at": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T17:35:16Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8051, "title": "Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "created_at": "2021-09-25T16:08:14.314134Z", "open_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-01T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A previous Metaculus question asked about a [great power war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/) and whether the [US and others would intervene](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/) in a [conflict over Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/). Some scholars have warned about a [Thucydides Trap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap) that could lead to a war between the US and China, over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or some other issue.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2050, either of the following occur:\n\n- There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n- There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nThese 100 deaths do not have to occur in the same conflict or the same year; it is sufficient for multiple separate events to reach a total of 100 deaths in this period.\n\nThis question will resolves as **No** otherwise.\n\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8051, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763487305.705474, "end_time": 1765201859.425233, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.235 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763487305.705474, "end_time": 1765201859.425233, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.235 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.47011060402908506 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00125373555270061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17333018797933802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024522378510598753, 0.44195721882986266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4552580791132654, 1.0, 0.0, 1.655221472589128, 0.0, 0.5749258425164405, 0.0, 0.13821983905390708, 0.7229119710791077, 0.0, 0.19478594283199857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.575558350096444, 0.02779729940940726, 0.3622148646129929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043677130948154924, 0.0, 0.14377211269548482, 0.9762452814935423, 0.020630345263094686, 0.022363722773507625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.079287086515579, 1.6442357736820177, 0.9650637912770265, 0.0, 0.791128607768002, 0.0, 0.12908693797700882, 0.06760120488306931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38259480977080873, 0.37295413899298513, 0.009687069797726195, 0.003207808714962677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032737217951857513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010764005557900061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7072274909220065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0048567827149672465, 0.04964668129335581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006190506525619948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013202104198869453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33919917683413425, 2.0475526185258195 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289377.9375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289377.9375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7017428771408891, 0.29825712285911093 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 243, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A previous Metaculus question asked about a [great power war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/) and whether the [US and others would intervene](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/) in a [conflict over Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/). Some scholars have warned about a [Thucydides Trap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap) that could lead to a war between the US and China, over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or some other issue." } ] }
