Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4680
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[The Taliban has said it will not recognize Israel.](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1435398469292904450)" }, { "id": 8049, "title": "Will the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?", "short_title": "N-S existence & smoothness and compactness", "url_title": "N-S existence & smoothness and compactness", "slug": "n-s-existence-smoothness-and-compactness", "author_id": 116023, "author_username": "ege_erdil", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-25T15:05:42.394921Z", "published_at": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.162829Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2120-12-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2120-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8049, "title": "Will the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?", "created_at": "2021-09-25T15:05:42.394921Z", "open_time": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-07T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-07T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2120-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2120-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2120-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_existence_and_smoothness) is an important open problem in fluid dynamics and the theory of partial differential equations. 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It's been designated as one of the Clay Institute's Millennium Prize Problems in 2000 and there is a 1 million dollar bounty available for either proving or disproving the conjecture. In the official introduction to the problem [here](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/navierstokes.pdf), the Clay Institute splits the problem into four statements A, B, C and D; and the problem is considered to have been settled if *any one* of them is proven.\n\nImportantly for this question, the statements A and C are about the Navier-Stokes equations defined on the noncompact space \\( \\mathbb R^3 \\), while B and D are about the equations defined on the compact torus \\( (\\mathbb R/\\mathbb Z)^3 \\)." }, { "id": 8046, "title": "Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?", "short_title": "Israeli Knesset Approves Budget by November", "url_title": "Israeli Knesset Approves Budget by November", "slug": "israeli-knesset-approves-budget-by-november", "author_id": 116867, "author_username": "kalos", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-24T16:36:55.080321Z", "published_at": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.241691Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-04T12:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-04T12:50:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8046, "title": "Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?", "created_at": "2021-09-24T16:36:55.080321Z", "open_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-01T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-04T12:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-04T12:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-11-04T12:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The new Israeli Knesset will have to pass a budget by November 4th, postpone the deadline, or the government will be automatically dissolved and a snap election will be called. 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"In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Asia Times [reported](https://twitter.com/KZiabari/status/1439967886454493189) that the Iranian leadership was divided on recognizing the Taliban.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030, the Iranian government formally recognizes the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8032, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763623549.51904, "end_time": 1765960607.735332, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763623549.51904, "end_time": 1765960607.735332, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6978094676258013 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07555473386203065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2403700099395794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5128863128011775, 0.0, 0.3235495858073233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1403372673928431, 0.05676376119083015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7329761805349487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025253159325845955, 1.0, 0.0, 0.2962357109626201, 0.0, 2.5513284976123773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06594039540813919, 0.0, 0.44510202402209764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3874505539986188, 0.19512018820526095, 0.0, 0.3152372014042578, 0.05724278302464458, 0.12469124550422711, 0.0978269360296038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39086599043581904, 0.7672800251964196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289741.824636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289741.824636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4766597284510502, 0.5233402715489498 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 170, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Asia Times [reported](https://twitter.com/KZiabari/status/1439967886454493189) that the Iranian leadership was divided on recognizing the Taliban." }, { "id": 8027, "title": "Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?", "short_title": "Evergrande Real-Estate Crisis", "url_title": "Evergrande Real-Estate Crisis", "slug": "evergrande-real-estate-crisis", "author_id": 112024, "author_username": "aristophanes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-21T08:23:01.576216Z", "published_at": "2021-09-24T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.517700Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-24T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-01T09:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-01T09:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-09T14:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-09T14:21:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-24T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8027, "title": "Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?", "created_at": "2021-09-21T08:23:01.576216Z", "open_time": "2021-09-24T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-26T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-26T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-09T14:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-09T14:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-09T14:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-01T09:20:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-01T09:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Chinese real-estate company Evergrande group has debts of $305 billion, or approximately 2% of China's GDP . The company's shares have [dropped 85% since the beginning of the year](https://www.fastcompany.com/90678306/whats-happening-with-evergrande-chinas-real-estate-debt-crisis-rattles-stock-markets). It must make bond interest payments of $83.5m on September 23rd and $47.5m on September 29th and its lenders are [preparing for losses](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/20/chinas-evergrandes-shares-pumelled-on-fear-of-debt-default). It may be that in this case the Chinese state would provide support to prevent wider market contagion, but so far this is [believed to be unlikely](https://www.ft.com/content/2e2c0f41-3680-4139-bf3d-12fdf61ca4c5).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that Evergrande group has entered default, or this is reported by any two of the following media organisations: \n\n - BBC News\n - ABC News\n - CBS News\n - CNN\n - Wall Street Journal\n - Financial Time", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8027, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635739175.075612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635739175.075612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5221001888462584 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.813066999739686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26102326165716355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0009240056595372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18113776984784913, 0.0, 0.6689331257009968, 0.05630936737947011, 0.0, 0.4336203067551109, 0.0, 0.6423888484513706, 0.0, 0.5505289351792777, 1.0, 2.868720722401928, 0.17346483590312078, 0.7102840026888804, 1.463263578185926, 0.0, 0.03355904935421398, 0.8245756322313547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20035221045422352, 0.021542612258663517, 0.029132572966941807, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.3003791713259937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003750798840222434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2387745119184577 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.8058555492683916, "coverage": 0.9996851610252994, "baseline_score": 27.90309563865323, "spot_peer_score": -0.10927843584777873, "peer_archived_score": -0.8058555492683916, "baseline_archived_score": 27.90309563865323, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.10927843584777873 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635753920.325613, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635753920.325613, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5964726235416791, 0.403527376458321 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Chinese real-estate company Evergrande group has debts of $305 billion, or approximately 2% of China's GDP . The company's shares have [dropped 85% since the beginning of the year](https://www.fastcompany.com/90678306/whats-happening-with-evergrande-chinas-real-estate-debt-crisis-rattles-stock-markets). It must make bond interest payments of $83.5m on September 23rd and $47.5m on September 29th and its lenders are [preparing for losses](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/20/chinas-evergrandes-shares-pumelled-on-fear-of-debt-default). It may be that in this case the Chinese state would provide support to prevent wider market contagion, but so far this is [believed to be unlikely](https://www.ft.com/content/2e2c0f41-3680-4139-bf3d-12fdf61ca4c5)." }, { "id": 8024, "title": "Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?", "short_title": "US debt default by Halloween?", "url_title": "US debt default by Halloween?", "slug": "us-debt-default-by-halloween", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-20T23:20:07.986938Z", "published_at": "2021-09-21T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.465294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-21T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-15T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-15T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "open_time": 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"is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8024, "title": "Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?", "created_at": "2021-09-20T23:20:07.986938Z", "open_time": "2021-09-21T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-21T14:51:55.804867Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-21T14:51:55.804867Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-15T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to Voice of America](https://www.voanews.com/a/us-debt-limit-struggle-raises-specter-of-catastrophic-default/6233421.html), the U.S. is in danger of [defaulting on its sovereign debt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_default):\n\n>Unless Congress votes to increase the amount of money the U.S. Treasury is allowed to borrow above its current debt of $28.5 trillion, the United States will default on its financial obligations sometime in the next several weeks, experts warn.\n\n>Few experts consider that likely to happen, but if it did, it could trigger an economic catastrophe with effects far beyond America's shores.\n\n>In a letter to members of Congress last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of the damage that would result if the U.S. is unable, even for a short time, to pay its bills.\n\n>\"A delay that calls into question the federal government's ability to meet all its obligations would likely cause irreparable damage to the U.S. economy and global financial markets,\" wrote Yellen, the former chair of the Federal Reserve Board. \"At a time when American families, communities, and businesses are still suffering from the effects of the ongoing global pandemic, it would be particularly irresponsible to put the full faith and credit of the United States at risk.\"\n\n>With that crisis looming, Democrats and Republicans in Washington are battling over who should take responsibility for the politically unpopular task of raising the cap on borrowing, commonly known as the debt limit. Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have vowed that not a single one of them will vote to raise the limit.\n\nAs of September 20th, Business Insider reports that [Mitch McConnell says the GOP will vote for the US to default on its debt](https://www.businessinsider.com/mcconnell-vote-default-debt-ceiling-government-funding-shutdown-pelosi-schumer-2021-9?r=US&IR=T):\n\n>\"We will not support legislation that raises the debt limit,\" McConnell said after Pelosi and Schumer's announcement. \"Democrats do not need our help.\"\n\nIt is [currently unclear](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-default-date-estimate-congress-060001725.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIeYAAqeImCovUw2m_GdFJL6JF8yRuoxpU-38u6Kt8AwMCkLMYtqzJptao-Pefr0FGuqmkG4-AVOfkyId0WphavybbaFJL7iaDHmGnj98F6HRfhi6GPuBBnjLBsQy50nwnqpHnYwu3q-CK7Vj0BIpPqrdy7t2Ygbn9cEWTwQQjP4) when exactly the US would become unable to meet its obligations; Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said only that the Treasury will run out of cash “sometime in October.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, before 00:00 Eastern on 1 November 2021, the US Treasury announces that the US has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that the US has entered default (including selective or restricted default) on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any two of the following media organizations announce that the US has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations:\n\n- BBC News\n- ABC News\n- CBS News\n- CNN\n- Wall Street Journal\n- Financial Time", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8024, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634334967.263319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 175, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { 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0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.69613349283372, "coverage": 0.999733709377188, "baseline_score": 96.15389024172433, "spot_peer_score": 1.1604455544968404, "peer_archived_score": 2.69613349283372, "baseline_archived_score": 96.15389024172433, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.1604455544968404 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634334967.293129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 175, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1634334967.293129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 175, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 394, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to Voice of America](https://www.voanews.com/a/us-debt-limit-struggle-raises-specter-of-catastrophic-default/6233421.html), the U.S. is in danger of [defaulting on its sovereign debt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_default):\n\n>Unless Congress votes to increase the amount of money the U.S. Treasury is allowed to borrow above its current debt of $28.5 trillion, the United States will default on its financial obligations sometime in the next several weeks, experts warn.\n\n>Few experts consider that likely to happen, but if it did, it could trigger an economic catastrophe with effects far beyond America's shores.\n\n>In a letter to members of Congress last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of the damage that would result if the U.S. is unable, even for a short time, to pay its bills.\n\n>\"A delay that calls into question the federal government's ability to meet all its obligations would likely cause irreparable damage to the U.S. economy and global financial markets,\" wrote Yellen, the former chair of the Federal Reserve Board. \"At a time when American families, communities, and businesses are still suffering from the effects of the ongoing global pandemic, it would be particularly irresponsible to put the full faith and credit of the United States at risk.\"\n\n>With that crisis looming, Democrats and Republicans in Washington are battling over who should take responsibility for the politically unpopular task of raising the cap on borrowing, commonly known as the debt limit. Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have vowed that not a single one of them will vote to raise the limit.\n\nAs of September 20th, Business Insider reports that [Mitch McConnell says the GOP will vote for the US to default on its debt](https://www.businessinsider.com/mcconnell-vote-default-debt-ceiling-government-funding-shutdown-pelosi-schumer-2021-9?r=US&IR=T):\n\n>\"We will not support legislation that raises the debt limit,\" McConnell said after Pelosi and Schumer's announcement. \"Democrats do not need our help.\"\n\nIt is [currently unclear](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-default-date-estimate-congress-060001725.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIeYAAqeImCovUw2m_GdFJL6JF8yRuoxpU-38u6Kt8AwMCkLMYtqzJptao-Pefr0FGuqmkG4-AVOfkyId0WphavybbaFJL7iaDHmGnj98F6HRfhi6GPuBBnjLBsQy50nwnqpHnYwu3q-CK7Vj0BIpPqrdy7t2Ygbn9cEWTwQQjP4) when exactly the US would become unable to meet its obligations; Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said only that the Treasury will run out of cash “sometime in October.”" }, { "id": 8009, "title": "Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?", "short_title": "Urbit devlopment ongoing 2025?", "url_title": "Urbit devlopment ongoing 2025?", "slug": "urbit-devlopment-ongoing-2025", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-17T16:51:15.214468Z", "published_at": "2021-09-26T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.485997Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-26T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-28T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:34:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-26T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8009, "title": "Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?", "created_at": "2021-09-17T16:51:15.214468Z", "open_time": "2021-09-26T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-28T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-28T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-28T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-04T00:36:04.460707Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Urbit is ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbit)):\n\n> a decentralized personal server platform.[1] The platform seeks to deconstruct the client-server model in favour of a federated network of personal servers in a peer-to-peer network with a consistent digital identity.[2]\n\nThe aims are bold, so will it succeed? One way to quantify this is to think of whether the development is still ongoing in 2025. Urbit code changes [are public on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main).", "resolution_criteria": "- If there are at least 3 commits in the period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-01, this question resolves positively.\n- The commit must be made publicly on the codebase. Currently, [this is on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main). If it moves, the official codebase at the new location will be used.\n- If the codebase becomes closed, admins judge whether development can be said to be ongoing, based on activity of the developer team elsewhere (e.g., are they actively promoting the project on [social media](https://twitter.com/urbit)? and [the project blog](https://urbit.org/blog)?)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8009, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640980360.735287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640980360.735287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6098096663685101 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43565863962748014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.498638883961223, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 1.4135937631410447, 1.238047356696194, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6191050957774415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -38.40100528816573, "peer_score": 0.5100623738060418, "coverage": 0.9976179172729335, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9976179172729335, "spot_peer_score": 42.4251144562043, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": -38.40100528816573, "peer_archived_score": 0.5100623738060418, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.4251144562043, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640980360.75277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640980360.75277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.37761622251599225, 0.6223837774840077 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Urbit is ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbit)):\n\n> a decentralized personal server platform.[1] The platform seeks to deconstruct the client-server model in favour of a federated network of personal servers in a peer-to-peer network with a consistent digital identity.[2]\n\nThe aims are bold, so will it succeed? One way to quantify this is to think of whether the development is still ongoing in 2025. Urbit code changes [are public on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main)." }, { "id": 8005, "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?", "short_title": "Coup by Bolsonaro by January 2 2023", "url_title": "Coup by Bolsonaro by January 2 2023", "slug": "coup-by-bolsonaro-by-january-2-2023", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-16T16:31:34.539373Z", "published_at": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.662305Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-30T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-30T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 166, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8005, "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?", "created_at": "2021-09-16T16:31:34.539373Z", "open_time": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-21T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-30T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-30T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [The Week](https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/americas/954151/brazil-election-is-jair-bolsonaro-preparing-to-stage-a-coup),\n\n> Is Jair Bolsonaro preparing to stage a coup? It’s starting to look that way, said Fernando de Barros e Silva in Folha de São Paulo. Last week, Brazil’s far-right president marked his country’s independence day by staging a huge rally in São Paulo. Addressing 140,000 supporters, he repeated his previous attacks on the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system, and lashed out at the Supreme Court, vowing to no longer follow its rulings.\n\n> He also launched a bitter verbal assault on one of the court’s justices, who incurred his wrath by authorising several probes into his conduct, including to examine whether he has committed a crime by spreading fake news about the risk of fraud in next year’s presidential elections. But it was his uncompromising language that really set alarm bells ringing. “I will never be jailed,” vowed the 66-year-old former army captain. “Only God will oust me.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if either of the following happen before January 2, 2023 (Pacific Time),\n\n* Credible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro successfully staged a coup\n\n* Credible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 Brazilian presidential election AND Jair Bolsonaro is widely considered to still be in power by the end of the day on January 1st 2023\n\n\"Credible media\" refers to a consensus among major American media outlets: NBC, ABC, AP, NY Times, Washington Post, Fox News and CBS", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672364299.75558, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672364299.75558, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015838275374211206 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 18.249503083484093, 1.9736629970045, 3.1409653036689473, 0.0131023708687774, 0.6849810837123019, 0.008290688747709498, 0.0002986748347926958, 0.000564131182835828, 0.04640446257971479, 0.029602911627814567, 0.001416532342329732, 8.108625351937246e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006777322988252022, 0.0, 0.0013269572344848685, 0.005500298151460571, 0.0, 0.0586885063151071, 0.03346464581532668, 0.010916297080271743, 0.0, 0.00034049189320553325, 0.001787995350862192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019840507512283397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002644604644588297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.097890049006128e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008646836574265269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.034818619834372, "coverage": 0.9998289777294062, "baseline_score": 91.06500524116348, "spot_peer_score": -3.7163872418179857, "peer_archived_score": 6.034818619834372, "baseline_archived_score": 91.06500524116348, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.7163872418179857 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672364299.782354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672364299.782354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 375, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [The Week](https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/americas/954151/brazil-election-is-jair-bolsonaro-preparing-to-stage-a-coup),\n\n> Is Jair Bolsonaro preparing to stage a coup? It’s starting to look that way, said Fernando de Barros e Silva in Folha de São Paulo. Last week, Brazil’s far-right president marked his country’s independence day by staging a huge rally in São Paulo. Addressing 140,000 supporters, he repeated his previous attacks on the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system, and lashed out at the Supreme Court, vowing to no longer follow its rulings.\n\n> He also launched a bitter verbal assault on one of the court’s justices, who incurred his wrath by authorising several probes into his conduct, including to examine whether he has committed a crime by spreading fake news about the risk of fraud in next year’s presidential elections. But it was his uncompromising language that really set alarm bells ringing. “I will never be jailed,” vowed the 66-year-old former army captain. “Only God will oust me.”" }, { "id": 8004, "title": "Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?", "short_title": "Trade Signal: Trades make money overall?", "url_title": "Trade Signal: Trades make money overall?", "slug": "trade-signal-trades-make-money-overall", "author_id": 112036, "author_username": "TomL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-16T15:57:36.017529Z", "published_at": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.388967Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-29T05:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-29T05:36:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8004, "title": "Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?", "created_at": "2021-09-16T15:57:36.017529Z", "open_time": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-21T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-29T05:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-29T05:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-29T05:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-27T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus started with a $1,500 prize pool for the Trade Signal tournament. We are trading this prize pool based on this [trading plan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7778/trading-plan-for-the-trade-signal-tournament/). As of Sept 16, the prize pool is $1,500.72.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves yes if the final prize pool exceeds $1,500", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8004, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635286313.802326, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635286313.802326, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.32395500033629554 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.1538804463707397, 0.8728179530395457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.836594525384686, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.4477682807548078, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0649869063178188, 1.2286011973676887, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.2801509562747174, 0.22270172488500573, 0.11777121751898838, 0.08236431053185626, 0.10554301219851529, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.045764208399009985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.903968044269074, "coverage": 0.9882810715612815, "baseline_score": 8.887631418373958, "spot_peer_score": -2.9780454008360264, "peer_archived_score": 4.903968044269074, "baseline_archived_score": 8.887631418373958, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.9780454008360264 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635286313.821529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635286313.821529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7379492074670697, 0.26205079253293023 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus started with a $1,500 prize pool for the Trade Signal tournament. We are trading this prize pool based on this [trading plan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7778/trading-plan-for-the-trade-signal-tournament/). As of Sept 16, the prize pool is $1,500.72." }, { "id": 8003, "title": "Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?", "short_title": "Trade Signal: Metaculus trades make money", "url_title": "Trade Signal: Metaculus trades make money", "slug": "trade-signal-metaculus-trades-make-money", "author_id": 112036, "author_username": "TomL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-16T15:29:14.488535Z", "published_at": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.200652Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-28T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-28T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8003, "title": "Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?", "created_at": "2021-09-16T15:29:14.488535Z", "open_time": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-21T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-28T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-28T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-28T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-27T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus made money on 2 of the first 4 trades in the Trade Signal tournament.", "resolution_criteria": "There are 9 trades [scheduled](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7778/trading-plan-for-the-trade-signal-tournament/) after Sept 17 for the Trade Signal tournament. Only these 9 trades will potentially count toward this resolution. In the event that a scheduled trade is not made, for any reason, it will not count toward this resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635286401.170633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635286401.170633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3694002620297119 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6328652459948338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9122236069356244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8354877802743572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 1.329323028026457, 0.7586143445231218, 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of the consensus?", "created_at": "2021-09-16T15:19:53.104892Z", "open_time": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-21T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-18T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-18T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-18T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Metaculus prediction (MP) was on the correct side of the consensus for the first 4 [scheduled trades](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7778/trading-plan-for-the-trade-signal-tournament/) in the Trade Signal tournament.", "resolution_criteria": "There are 9 trades scheduled after Sept 17 for the Trade Signal tournament. Only predictions for these 9 trades will potentially count toward this resolution. In the event that the MP is deemed to be equal to the consensus to the significant digits reported as the consensus by [marketwatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar) then no trade will be attempted, and the forecast will not count toward the resolution. If Metaculus wants to trade, but is unable to trade because there is no \"cash available for trading\" in the brokerage account then that prediction will still count toward this resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8002, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634676172.277694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1634676172.277694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.231876740443316 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.1212651596079914, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0357361884011276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6329211919944177, 0.36707880800558235 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Metaculus prediction (MP) was on the correct side of the consensus for the first 4 [scheduled trades](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7778/trading-plan-for-the-trade-signal-tournament/) in the Trade Signal tournament." }, { "id": 7994, "title": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?", "short_title": "Nanoparticle Cancer Therapy Approved by 2041", "url_title": "Nanoparticle Cancer Therapy Approved by 2041", "slug": "nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2041", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-16T04:23:41.299852Z", "published_at": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.979921Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T20:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-02T02:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7994, "title": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?", "created_at": "2021-09-16T04:23:41.299852Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-18T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-18T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-02T02:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T20:08:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-12-31T20:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2031, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/).*\n\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\n\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](\nhttps://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2041, the FDA gives full approval to a cancer therapy that uses inorganic nanoparticles in the patient's treatment. The therapy must target the cancer cells rather than downstream symptoms. We specify \"inorganic\" to exclude lipid nanoparticles etc", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7994, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758392217.034865, "end_time": 1765039346.908645, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.821 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758392217.034865, "end_time": 1765039346.908645, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.821 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.802724818871471 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22321608499803963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.398266534537208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 2.511127422178064, 0.0, 0.8898196901653882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06273305504766838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.954270183726385 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289468.14565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289468.14565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21556851401169064, 0.7844314859883094 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2031, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/).*\n\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\n\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](\nhttps://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism." }, { "id": 7987, "title": "In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?", "short_title": "Commercial paper rate and CPI won't diverge", "url_title": "Commercial paper rate and CPI won't diverge", "slug": "commercial-paper-rate-and-cpi-wont-diverge", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-15T20:15:39.641376Z", "published_at": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.646441Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-10T21:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-10T21:31:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7987, "title": "In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?", "created_at": "2021-09-15T20:15:39.641376Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-18T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-18T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-10T21:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-10T21:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-02-10T21:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation.*\n<br /><br /><br />\nThe [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated.\n\nOne approach for extracting the trend in inflation from short-term fluctuations in the CPI is to weight the food and energy components at zero on the grounds that volatility in these components can be misleading. The result is the \"core CPI,\" which this forecast question uses, and which is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E))\n\n[Commercial paper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_paper) is a type of security issued by large corporations to obtain funds to meet short-term debt obligations. Their real interest rate can be calculated by subtracting the CPI inflation rate from their nominal interest rate.\n\n***In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent (here, month-over-month annualized inflation), will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?***\n\nThis question resolves ambiguous if there is no month in 2022 where core [CPI inflation](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E) is above 3%.\n\nThis resolves positive if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and also for *all such months*, inflation is at most 3 percentage points higher than the [3-month prime commercial paper interest rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RIFSPPNA2P2D90NB).\n\nThis resolves negative if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and for *any such month*, inflation is more than 3 percentage points higher than the 3-month prime commercial paper interest rate.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7987, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643670902.831878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643670902.831878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.42466303444395476 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.26034628115127334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.015708539450405595, 1.1316375000948755, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.31378999911773153, 1.0, 1.9853439052786468, 0.8616137745260806, 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nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?", "created_at": "2021-09-15T07:15:03.646328Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-18T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-18T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-02T02:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:08:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2041, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7994/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2041/).*\n\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\n\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](\nhttps://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, the FDA gives full approval to a cancer therapy that uses inorganic nanoparticles in the patient's treatment. The therapy must target the cancer cells rather than downstream symptoms. We specify \"inorganic\" to exclude lipid nanoparticles etc", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746911703.821823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746911703.821823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.537187105151715 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.213547737080567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3249387862380765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45150846793145216, 0.0, 0.32860183363340295, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 2.1235010497624573, 0.0, 0.8990326327948224, 0.5033121904632838, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0346064516374764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7464719402331144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7835029326219957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286923.567497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286923.567497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.482793016800791, 0.517206983199209 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2041, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7994/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2041/).*\n\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\n\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](\nhttps://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism." }, { "id": 7980, "title": "By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?", "short_title": "Will General Milley leave as CJCOS?", "url_title": "Will General Milley leave as CJCOS?", "slug": "will-general-milley-leave-as-cjcos", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-15T01:04:09.975728Z", "published_at": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.520015Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-20T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-20T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7980, "title": "By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?", "created_at": "2021-09-15T01:04:09.975728Z", "open_time": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-19T14:07:55.339899Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-19T14:07:55.339899Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T17:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-20T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-20T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "General Mark A. Milley became the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on October 1, 2019. For his official Department of Defense biography, please see [here](https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/614392/general-mark-a-milley/).\n\nOn 14 September 2021, it was reported [by the Washington Post]( https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/09/14/peril-woodward-costa-trump-milley-china/) that General Milley took steps to prevent President Donald Trump from being able to launch offensive war against China in January 2021, as detailed in an upcoming book by reporters Bob Woodward and Robert Costa.\n\nThis has led to calls from critics as such as [The National Review](https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/general-milley-should-be-fired-for-holding-secret-personal-talks-with-china/) for his ouster, and for him to be brought up on charges up to and including treason.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as positive if General Milley leaves or is removed from his position of 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff by 11:59 PM on 31 December 2021. Otherwise this resolves as negative.", "fine_print": "In the event General Milley leaves his position, this question retroactively resolves before the result was known", "post_id": 7980, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1637366570.220435, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1637366570.220435, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.09782309924683803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.602599924615885, 0.0, 1.1026740135803075, 1.2826687929309937, 0.9560243026382557, 0.329024976296409, 0.8298936003943922, 0.8109880700209451, 0.5642982571167124, 0.8327880974661108, 0.3243328418405674, 0.7937123607048568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19491716683966737, 0.14500482192877664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019184847683859318, 0.0, 0.16193689729934868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18037658447122673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20042950017961592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9244383481296953, 0.045661515517217234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004502492091281563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009362214450677682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.39276830608859, "coverage": 0.9999404883889764, "baseline_score": 77.68294124702197, "spot_peer_score": 7.137869225971628, "peer_archived_score": 10.39276830608859, "baseline_archived_score": 77.68294124702197, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.137869225971628 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1637366570.239474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1637366570.239474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9783756317338786, 0.02162436826612134 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "General Mark A. Milley became the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on October 1, 2019. For his official Department of Defense biography, please see [here](https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/614392/general-mark-a-milley/).\n\nOn 14 September 2021, it was reported [by the Washington Post]( https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/09/14/peril-woodward-costa-trump-milley-china/) that General Milley took steps to prevent President Donald Trump from being able to launch offensive war against China in January 2021, as detailed in an upcoming book by reporters Bob Woodward and Robert Costa.\n\nThis has led to calls from critics as such as [The National Review](https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/general-milley-should-be-fired-for-holding-secret-personal-talks-with-china/) for his ouster, and for him to be brought up on charges up to and including treason." }, { "id": 7978, "title": "Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?", "short_title": "Democrat POTUS signs 500G$ budget cut by 2029", "url_title": "Democrat POTUS signs 500G$ budget cut by 2029", "slug": "democrat-potus-signs-500g-budget-cut-by-2029", "author_id": 105951, "author_username": "Sylvain", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-14T21:53:10.399118Z", "published_at": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.540282Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-10-21T16:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:52:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7978, "title": "Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?", "created_at": "2021-09-14T21:53:10.399118Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-18T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-18T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-10-21T16:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-10-21T16:52:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation.*\n\nA governmental [Debt Crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_crisis) occurs when a government finds itself unable to pay back its debt. This famously happened to [Greece starting in 2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis), and to [Latin America in the 1980s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis). Though fears of a Debt Crisis resurface regularly in the US, it has not happened yet.\n\nA likely consequence and reaction to a Debt Crisis in the US would be dramatic spending cuts, to balance the budget. \n\nThe current US President is Joe Biden, a Democrat, and Democrats have a reputation for being less fiscally conservative than Republicans, so this question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positive if, before 2029, a Democratic US President signs into law a budget that provides for 500 billion dollars less in spending than the budget of the previous year", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7978, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721743080.370512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721743080.370512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.18763466642924018 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.6851635000651681, 0.0016348593756712248, 0.03421391667643943, 0.5708984753092851, 0.22216024851503086, 0.041854423028354265, 0.0, 0.04701448451617251, 0.0, 1.41439266930719, 0.0, 0.008476588784980537, 0.0, 0.28599398949733934, 0.4615002146273653, 0.14725105161556418, 0.128356003068961, 0.6595493454573285, 2.4108178966658906, 0.666321789157021, 0.0, 0.802625725185603, 0.03713880639824575, 0.26357008825228284, 0.4442685935116818, 0.1879393751887922, 0.0, 0.7081278126566147, 0.0, 0.34257297281949173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39240618529421484, 0.05879944916051883, 0.3631009988528126, 0.03283702835426392, 0.0, 0.002473836920010813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6138557846642979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09855120940124697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20489726080997955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.30650685371457803, "coverage": 0.15025040175954582, "baseline_score": -37.48255679007782, "spot_peer_score": 6.209471128306351, "peer_archived_score": 0.30650685371457803, "baseline_archived_score": -37.48255679007782, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.209471128306351 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1665906118.433859, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1665906118.433859, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9821707037819536, 0.01782929621804645 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation.*\n\nA governmental [Debt Crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_crisis) occurs when a government finds itself unable to pay back its debt. This famously happened to [Greece starting in 2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis), and to [Latin America in the 1980s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis). Though fears of a Debt Crisis resurface regularly in the US, it has not happened yet.\n\nA likely consequence and reaction to a Debt Crisis in the US would be dramatic spending cuts, to balance the budget. \n\nThe current US President is Joe Biden, a Democrat, and Democrats have a reputation for being less fiscally conservative than Republicans, so this question asks:" }, { "id": 7977, "title": "Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?", "short_title": "US Core Inflation Above 3% in 2022", "url_title": "US Core Inflation Above 3% in 2022", "slug": "us-core-inflation-above-3-in-2022", "author_id": 105951, "author_username": "Sylvain", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-14T21:07:43.314421Z", "published_at": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.923184Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-11T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-11T13:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 127, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7977, "title": "Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?", "created_at": "2021-09-14T21:07:43.314421Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-17T15:24:50.696148Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-17T15:24:50.696148Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-11T13:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-11T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-11T13:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation.*\n<br /><br /><br />\nThe [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. 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