Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4700
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"actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T16:40:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7976, "title": "Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?", "created_at": "2021-09-14T17:52:32.398950Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-17T08:16:08.665531Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-17T08:16:08.665531Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T16:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T16:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-02T16:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Will [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6554/astral-codex-ten-mentions-this-question/) resolve ambiguously?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6554/astral-codex-ten-mentions-this-question/) resolves ambiguously, and it will resolve negatively otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7976, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1633031838.310008, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1633031838.310008, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2678847257670179 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43776641345902195, 1.289350675326939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18527705034115113, 0.0, 0.2223942771812562, 0.04084036021151628, 0.06639265352365246, 0.0890077681928434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47401681106756194, 0.0, 1.333446452262228, 0.0, 0.09249024938796033, 0.023413487787231745, 0.6956811236098437, 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1633031838.337164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1633031838.337164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8183898351590634, 0.18161016484093662 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Will [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6554/astral-codex-ten-mentions-this-question/) resolve ambiguously?" }, { "id": 7975, "title": "Will there be a European Army before 2032?", "short_title": "European Army before 2032?", "url_title": "European Army before 2032?", "slug": "european-army-before-2032", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-14T15:30:38.532593Z", "published_at": "2021-09-29T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T06:44:47.688710Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-29T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-02T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-02T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-29T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T19:24:40.787437Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T19:24:40.787437Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7975, "title": "Will there be a European Army before 2032?", "created_at": "2021-09-14T15:30:38.532593Z", "open_time": "2021-09-29T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-01T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-01T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-02T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-01-02T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia describes the [European Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_army) as follows:\n\n> The European army or EU army are terms for a hypothetical army of the European Union which would supersede the Common Security and Defence Policy and would go beyond the proposed European Defence Union. Currently, there is no such army, and defence is a matter for the member states.\n\nThe idea of such an army is brought up periodically, although so far there are no plans in the works to create it.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2032, there is legislation passed in at least 5 European countries (including one of France, Germany, UK) which makes provisions for an army consisting of units from multiple countries.\n\nLower level army units (eg platoons, companies, battalions, regiments) need not be mixed. (For example, often countries have armies formed from regional regiments and are still considered national armies). However, senior levels need to be staffed by officers from a range of countries.\n\nThe army needs to be planned to be an \"Army\". ie a joint battalion (eg the one formed between the Dutch and Germans) would not count. For this question, this means that at least 30,000 soldiers need to be planned to be in such an army.\n\nThe army needs to report to a supranational organization. It need not be the an EU body or any existing organization. It does need to be specifically European. eg A G7 army would not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762893151.603808, "end_time": 1767763174.236517, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762893151.603808, "end_time": 1767763174.236517, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.667, 0.333 ], "means": [ 0.36949315392676363 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7469208418768826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2871625953063591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2847573243318275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9791059927972756, 0.9307200270794798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14189071851070525, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 1.107784463792095, 0.0, 0.5033596660002069, 0.012852091876617526, 0.006737946999085467, 0.47912918987592756, 0.0, 0.008904968792674064, 0.0, 0.9425503661898424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1800920846852873, 0.08915094763644647, 0.0, 0.029132572966941807, 0.0, 1.0431653451963345, 0.0, 0.6929825785475864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18113776984784913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07128274001026091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.154582354608085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6068383025587478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008531995357508187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288589.654571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288589.654571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7719002457849428, 0.22809975421505727 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 159, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Wikipedia describes the [European Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_army) as follows:\n\n> The European army or EU army are terms for a hypothetical army of the European Union which would supersede the Common Security and Defence Policy and would go beyond the proposed European Defence Union. Currently, there is no such army, and defence is a matter for the member states.\n\nThe idea of such an army is brought up periodically, although so far there are no plans in the works to create it." }, { "id": 7969, "title": "By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?", "short_title": "FDA approval of COVID vaccine for kids soon?", "url_title": "FDA approval of COVID vaccine for kids soon?", "slug": "fda-approval-of-covid-vaccine-for-kids-soon", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-13T14:33:55.181048Z", "published_at": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.441057Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-16T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-16T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-29T19:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-29T19:20:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7969, "title": "By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?", "created_at": "2021-09-13T14:33:55.181048Z", "open_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-16T10:06:27.215214Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-16T10:06:27.215214Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-29T19:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-29T19:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-29T19:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-16T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Currently there are no COVID vaccinations authorized by the FDA for any American in the 5-11 age group. Reuters recently [reported](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-kids-excl/exclusive-u-s-decision-on-pfizer-covid-19-shot-for-kids-age-5-11-could-come-in-october-sources-idUKKBN2G620D?edition-redirect=uk) that approval of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11 could come by the end of October. The expectation is that Pfizer will submit data for an emergency use authorization (EUA) by the end of September, and the FDA's approval for EUA will come within three weeks after that.", "resolution_criteria": "Upon credible, consensus open media reports (Reuters, NYTimes, Wall Street Journal, etc.) that the US Food and Drug Administration has approved any COVID-19 vaccine by any pharmaceutical company for at least some Americans in the 5-11 age group, this question resolves as positive. Otherwise it resolves as negative.", "fine_print": "Any sort of authorization, whether a general authorization or an EUA, would count. The administration of vaccination shots as part of medical research would not count.", "post_id": 7969, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634321531.405176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1634321531.405176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.6208438937087342 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2611024408512512, 0.0, 0.4105276103686419, 0.0, 0.08014323208954297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5213723661177195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03380766426233947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006815752573124795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5230247773412267, 0.0300971136065479, 0.041932504883641954, 0.5683382989888612, 0.769009528437769, 0.1351453996240435, 1.0294828950358414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.412844657618774, 0.0, 0.4414177989399567, 1.2774574160277745, 0.0, 0.4200417002149024, 0.6481455130487269, 0.052332631715494016, 0.08590922441201745, 0.28217551895796505, 2.30066578429811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0594403446859182, 0.1895307189885955, 0.0, 0.8219035248766081, 0.0, 0.11536465304547755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3542463301646753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12379696394240604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017789123690750252 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.230812315903032, "coverage": 0.9999087621670019, "baseline_score": 18.69090576274385, "spot_peer_score": 33.957513251513085, "peer_archived_score": 5.230812315903032, "baseline_archived_score": 18.69090576274385, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.957513251513085 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634321531.425453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1634321531.425453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3619149965211278, 0.6380850034788722 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 225, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Currently there are no COVID vaccinations authorized by the FDA for any American in the 5-11 age group. Reuters recently [reported](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-kids-excl/exclusive-u-s-decision-on-pfizer-covid-19-shot-for-kids-age-5-11-could-come-in-october-sources-idUKKBN2G620D?edition-redirect=uk) that approval of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11 could come by the end of October. The expectation is that Pfizer will submit data for an emergency use authorization (EUA) by the end of September, and the FDA's approval for EUA will come within three weeks after that." }, { "id": 7966, "title": "Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?", "short_title": "Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030", "url_title": "Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030", "slug": "israel-hezbollah-war-by-2030", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-13T02:50:05.515863Z", "published_at": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.360024Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 155, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-21T19:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-21T19:46:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 285, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T17:27:28.504178Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T17:27:28.504178Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7966, "title": "Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-09-13T02:50:05.515863Z", "open_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-21T19:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-21T19:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-21T19:46:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Israel and Hezbollah, a US-designated terrorist organization and Lebanese militia, [fought a war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War) in 2006. [Several](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/lebanon-matti-friedman) [sources](https://breakingdefense.com/2021/08/are-israel-and-lebanon-heading-for-another-war/) have warned of another war or potential conflict. The Syrian Civil War has seen Hezbollah [increase its presence in Syria](https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-conflict-hezbollah-syria). Israel [has struck](https://www.jpost.com/Defense/Israel-strikes-Syrian-weapons-en-route-to-Hezbollah) Hezbollah weapons.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2030:\n\n- There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n- There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Israel and Hezbollah causing a total of at least 100 deaths.", "fine_print": "Positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2029. The threshold 100 at the timescale involved is such that this is unlikely.", "post_id": 7966, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700684192.781681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 286, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700684192.781681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 286, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9457275703015121 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2497337748753866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01585311622886723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011152242687679871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001581025499432607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05444253292601485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.925332536764717e-06, 2.79290328380244e-06, 1.191442041263424e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5355715739345676e-06, 0.0, 0.000700056092709694, 0.0, 1.8603686891284334e-07, 0.5621856463843262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088343259164586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.411223543588235e-06, 6.729282209983146e-06, 0.16785871154888587, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4449542321558843e-06, 0.0, 6.9681737410959154e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023320720246101285, 0.0053408867501781405, 0.0, 0.0, 8.042224413172922e-05, 0.0, 0.013014001855772025, 0.03653468111385891, 0.0010471753274226853, 0.035620939601629265, 0.042264514723706036, 0.20685789376516614, 0.006492307795789029, 0.002285300792294608, 0.8120208301736711, 0.24674945470229287, 0.06355854673426689, 0.00031085322991538256, 0.0003277235606048846, 0.01154347510869542, 0.006232782229187706, 0.3241053202529977, 0.04695266480415531, 0.00040928413106001467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013021514059973874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014088113030928561, 0.49946924966430006, 0.9278963660710629, 0.011858248857222121, 0.040318635491776125, 1.6078341436788088, 0.8279088267881839, 0.9534677475600639, 0.32702758945819066, 0.19202701736305358, 0.4271961273616811, 23.53618252894967 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.527911088792627, "coverage": 0.2587186989749527, "baseline_score": -0.324998524053112, "spot_peer_score": -30.275698409384344, "peer_archived_score": 0.527911088792627, "baseline_archived_score": -0.324998524053112, "spot_peer_archived_score": -30.275698409384344 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700583299.168531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 285, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700583299.168531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 285, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0702777949850445, 0.9297222050149555 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 32, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1056, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israel and Hezbollah, a US-designated terrorist organization and Lebanese militia, [fought a war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War) in 2006. [Several](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/lebanon-matti-friedman) [sources](https://breakingdefense.com/2021/08/are-israel-and-lebanon-heading-for-another-war/) have warned of another war or potential conflict. The Syrian Civil War has seen Hezbollah [increase its presence in Syria](https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-conflict-hezbollah-syria). Israel [has struck](https://www.jpost.com/Defense/Israel-strikes-Syrian-weapons-en-route-to-Hezbollah) Hezbollah weapons." }, { "id": 7963, "title": "By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?", "short_title": "Will the large Child Tax Credit be extended?", "url_title": "Will the large Child Tax Credit be extended?", "slug": "will-the-large-child-tax-credit-be-extended", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-11T20:25:18.438430Z", "published_at": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.840152Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-16T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-16T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-03T03:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-03T03:20:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7963, "title": "By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?", "created_at": "2021-09-11T20:25:18.438430Z", "open_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-03T03:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-03T03:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-11-03T03:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-16T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 15 July 2021 eligible families started temporarily receiving $300 per month per child as part of the American Rescue Plan, for a total of $3,600 per year. Please see the White House overview and FAQ page [here](https://www.whitehouse.gov/child-tax-credit/). This expansion of the Child Tax Credit is set to expire on 31 December 2021, at which point it reverts back to $2,000 per year. For background please see the following Forbes Advisor article: [Will I Receive The Child Tax Credit in 2022?](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/taxes/will-i-receive-the-child-tax-credit-in-2022/)\n\nAn extension of the expanded Child Tax Credit to 2025 has been proposed as part of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package currently being [debated in the Senate](https://en.as.com/en/2021/09/11/latest_news/1631385544_936760.html).", "resolution_criteria": "Upon credible, consensus open media reports (NYTimes, Wall Street Journal, Forbes, etc.) that the US Senate has passed a bill \nexpanding the maximum award of the Child Tax Credit above $2,000 per year past 31 December 2021, this question resolves as yes. 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Please see the White House overview and FAQ page [here](https://www.whitehouse.gov/child-tax-credit/). This expansion of the Child Tax Credit is set to expire on 31 December 2021, at which point it reverts back to $2,000 per year. For background please see the following Forbes Advisor article: [Will I Receive The Child Tax Credit in 2022?](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/taxes/will-i-receive-the-child-tax-credit-in-2022/)\n\nAn extension of the expanded Child Tax Credit to 2025 has been proposed as part of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package currently being [debated in the Senate](https://en.as.com/en/2021/09/11/latest_news/1631385544_936760.html)." }, { "id": 7962, "title": "Does P equal BPP?", "short_title": "P versus BPP", "url_title": "P versus BPP", "slug": "p-versus-bpp", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-11T01:56:07.590968Z", "published_at": "2021-10-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.558098Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "3000-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7962, "title": "Does P equal BPP?", "created_at": "2021-09-11T01:56:07.590968Z", "open_time": "2021-10-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-05T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "3000-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [P vs BPP](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/p_vs_bpp) question asks whether any problem in [BPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_(complexity)), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomness, [is the same as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_(complexity)#Problems) [P](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_(complexity)), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time without randomness.\n\nP is contained in BPP, and BPP is [contained in](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_(complexity)#Complexity-theoretic_properties) the [polynomial hierarchy PH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_hierarchy) which also contains [NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NP_(complexity)). If [P=NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem), then P=PH and so P=BPP.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving that P=BPP. It will resolve negatively if there is such a proof that P is not equal to BPP. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 3000, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus. If there is no proof of disproof by the resolve date of 3000-01-01, it will resolve ambiguously.\n\nIn the event that a proof is published and confirmed by peer review, the question will close retroactively 24 hours before the proof is published or pre-printed", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7962, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721427906.347057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.724 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721427906.347057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.724 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7321808900199515 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3305966195519114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5354677924097544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4095392641155703, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288699.082555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288699.082555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3109606118713444, 0.6890393881286556 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [P vs BPP](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/p_vs_bpp) question asks whether any problem in [BPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_(complexity)), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomness, [is the same as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_(complexity)#Problems) [P](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_(complexity)), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time without randomness.\n\nP is contained in BPP, and BPP is [contained in](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_(complexity)#Complexity-theoretic_properties) the [polynomial hierarchy PH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_hierarchy) which also contains [NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NP_(complexity)). If [P=NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem), then P=PH and so P=BPP." }, { "id": 7958, "title": "By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?", "short_title": "Will SCOTUS strike down fed worker mandate?", "url_title": "Will SCOTUS strike down fed worker mandate?", "slug": "will-scotus-strike-down-fed-worker-mandate", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-10T16:20:17.524904Z", "published_at": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.904258Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 40, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-24T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-24T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-24T22:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-24T22:52:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7958, "title": "By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?", "created_at": "2021-09-10T16:20:17.524904Z", "open_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-16T17:23:09.874084Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-16T17:23:09.874084Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-24T22:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-24T22:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-11-24T22:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-24T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-24T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 9 September 2021 President Biden issued an executive order (found [here](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/09/09/executive-order-on-requiring-coronavirus-disease-2019-vaccination-for-federal-employees/)) requiring mandatory COVID vaccinations for all federal employees. \n\nFor further explanation, please see [Axios: Biden mandates COVID vaccines for federal workers, with no option for testing](https://www.axios.com/biden-executive-order-mandating-vaccines-4ba564a0-9498-43ef-bef8-f59f36e61418.html). Federal employees have 75 days from when the executive order was signed to get fully vaccinated, with the only exceptions being medical or religious accommodation. Those who fail to comply face discipline by their agencies up to and including termination. \n\nFor more information please see [Federal News Network: Biden will now require vaccines for all federal employees via new executive order](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/workforce/2021/09/biden-will-now-require-vaccines-for-all-federal-employees-via-new-executive-order/)\n\nThis question resolves on 23 November 2021, which is 75 days after the executive order.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as positive if the United State Supreme Court rules by 23 November 2021 that any part of President Biden's executive order violates any part of the US Constitution. If it does not, the question will resolve negative. If the Court decides on any aspect of this case without addressing any issues of constitutionality, the question will resolve negative", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7958, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635029688.721851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635029688.721851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.12362683371553916 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6621607275305496, 0.0, 0.8738508717282191, 0.8628237573276926, 0.11171412217289521, 0.7104289439189292, 0.6167356607444825, 1.032192404658037, 0.0, 1.1361682920391214, 0.0, 0.11417155583535932, 2.2707872835342418, 0.4606527189387643, 0.9081025599155595, 0.049233607049991815, 0.6294025534212135, 0.42006526030227176, 0.0, 0.6399732604644552, 0.0, 1.315404051339706, 0.007334292605756895, 0.0, 0.1345137037522881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13596928365411992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33548110026919653, 0.0, 0.023714766002371646, 0.0, 0.006513847192233464, 0.01550349210722101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.6135110491772255, "coverage": 0.9999677497945676, "baseline_score": 65.2256156970794, "spot_peer_score": 10.76951265662402, "peer_archived_score": 1.6135110491772255, "baseline_archived_score": 65.2256156970794, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.76951265662402 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635029688.739566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635029688.739566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9385507967338164, 0.06144920326618369 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 9 September 2021 President Biden issued an executive order (found [here](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/09/09/executive-order-on-requiring-coronavirus-disease-2019-vaccination-for-federal-employees/)) requiring mandatory COVID vaccinations for all federal employees. \n\nFor further explanation, please see [Axios: Biden mandates COVID vaccines for federal workers, with no option for testing](https://www.axios.com/biden-executive-order-mandating-vaccines-4ba564a0-9498-43ef-bef8-f59f36e61418.html). Federal employees have 75 days from when the executive order was signed to get fully vaccinated, with the only exceptions being medical or religious accommodation. Those who fail to comply face discipline by their agencies up to and including termination. \n\nFor more information please see [Federal News Network: Biden will now require vaccines for all federal employees via new executive order](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/workforce/2021/09/biden-will-now-require-vaccines-for-all-federal-employees-via-new-executive-order/)\n\nThis question resolves on 23 November 2021, which is 75 days after the executive order." }, { "id": 7947, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?", "short_title": "SCOTUS Rules Vaccine Mandate Unconstitutional", "url_title": "SCOTUS Rules Vaccine Mandate Unconstitutional", "slug": "scotus-rules-vaccine-mandate-unconstitutional", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-10T14:24:32.990066Z", "published_at": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.785581Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-10T14:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-10T14:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:49:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7947, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?", "created_at": "2021-09-10T14:24:32.990066Z", "open_time": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-19T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-30T15:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-10T14:22:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-10T14:22:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President Biden [has announced](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/biden-covid-19-vaccine-mandates-announcement/) that the Department of Labor's Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is developing a rule which will require all employees of companies with at least 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly COVID testing. While the official rule has not yet been announced, there have been [promises to challenge the new mandate in court](https://www.businessinsider.com/gop-sue-white-house-vaccine-mandate-experts-say-will-fail-2021-9).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the Department of Labor introduces a new rule that requires employees of companies with more than 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or tested weekly, and the Supreme Court of the United States strikes the new rule down as unconstitutional before the end of 2021.\n\nIf the Department of Labor does not introduce a new rule which requires employees of companies with more than 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or tested weekly, this resolves ambiguously.\n\nIf the Supreme Court of the United States strikes down either the vaccine requirement or the testing requirement but leaves the other in place, this resolves positively. 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While the official rule has not yet been announced, there have been [promises to challenge the new mandate in court](https://www.businessinsider.com/gop-sue-white-house-vaccine-mandate-experts-say-will-fail-2021-9)." }, { "id": 7929, "title": "Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?", "short_title": "Will Virginia elect a Democratic governor?", "url_title": "Will Virginia elect a Democratic governor?", "slug": "will-virginia-elect-a-democratic-governor", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-09T16:53:30.412914Z", "published_at": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.853670Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-02T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-02T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-03T11:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-03T11:37:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7929, "title": "Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?", "created_at": "2021-09-09T16:53:30.412914Z", "open_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-03T11:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-03T11:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-11-03T11:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-02T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-02T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election is scheduled to be held on November 2, 2021, to elect the next governor of Virginia. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe is running as the Democratic candidate. His opponent, businessman Glenn Youngkin, is the Republican candidate.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the Democratic candidate is the next Governor of Virginia following the election scheduled for 2021-11-02 based on election results. This question resolves based on consensus reporting by credible media sources (e.g., Richmond Times-Dispatch, the Washington Post and New York Times) and/or from official results from the State of Virginia.", "fine_print": "In case of ambiguity, this question resolves based on whether or not a Democrat is the sitting governor of Virginia at 11:59 PM on the Saturday after the second Wednesday in January 2022, when the next governor is scheduled to be inaugurated.", "post_id": 7929, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635866568.597458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635866568.597458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.48898952151617886 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.050719975180017585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0937990767901624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.737608179806266, 0.0, 0.9417867572078573, 0.7200940818549946, 0.0, 0.4418583912301043, 0.028134217409661617, 0.0, 2.4737259680527885, 0.0, 0.07265466937739974, 0.13999090466860914, 0.8708638931341822, 1.104991707754295, 0.4254506735450392, 2.007780954213707, 0.7089585655648135, 0.47183068715208454, 0.8313109447876782, 0.14466665489195232, 0.23730785012660063, 0.0, 0.1793843501280284, 0.6587639721701997, 0.0419847911130734, 0.0, 0.019457247950592924, 0.0, 0.4794039917114452, 0.0, 0.0098042150506422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00860368765600238, 0.0, 0.0021754227014258746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012694324624729423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005492769954952124, 0.0013141707011951615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31490076724293836 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 24.310127028527145, "coverage": 0.999026851599037, "baseline_score": -83.22770361471188, "spot_peer_score": -8.463840332698807, "peer_archived_score": 24.310127028527145, "baseline_archived_score": -83.22770361471188, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.463840332698807 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635866568.63916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635866568.63916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.49186244766645637, 0.5081375523335436 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 184, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election is scheduled to be held on November 2, 2021, to elect the next governor of Virginia. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe is running as the Democratic candidate. His opponent, businessman Glenn Youngkin, is the Republican candidate." }, { "id": 7925, "title": "Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?", "short_title": "China and designer babies", "url_title": "China and designer babies", "slug": "china-and-designer-babies", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-09T04:23:08.696433Z", "published_at": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T02:15:10.021710Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7925, "title": "Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?", "created_at": "2021-09-09T04:23:08.696433Z", "open_time": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-18T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-18T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/) asks when 100 babies will be born who are selected for intelligence. Here, we ask how many of them will be born in China.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if more than 50 of the first 100 babies who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence are born in the People's Republic of China, according to credible reports. If 100 such babies are not born by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nFor this question to resolve positively, it must be the case that the polygenetic selection is done in part for the purpose of increasing the expected intelligence; incidental effects on expected intelligence arising from polygenetic selection or screening for non-intelligence-related traits should not trigger positive resoltion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7925, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759716899.334155, "end_time": 1791252891.07, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759716899.334155, "end_time": 1791252891.07, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.30137259618117357 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.010410228191898815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5011495311528927, 0.6253941917466255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8522450042258929, 0.0, 0.6094048970493037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172198988545298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1490460999152466, 1.123637845598096, 0.0, 0.6742732039644874, 0.2032312440206779, 0.1102646874721923, 0.5350055731436427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01931126599571368, 0.0, 1.3843413571157352, 0.0013954015504436714, 0.7359273584237145, 0.21055523375954385, 0.0, 1.1175660933793636, 0.6529864489286301, 0.0, 0.37032948285353734, 0.0, 1.0396331605989217, 0.4389766355214183, 0.046182984074660455, 0.4183682425037084, 0.22964597138915843, 0.1468994900250201, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2174861726898446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028594267247472834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.885793796274844, 0.2519762019484688, 0.5708338054187606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017180449892146496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049039889491686216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288043.201363, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288043.201363, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.812169634205382, 0.187830365794618 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 242, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/) asks when 100 babies will be born who are selected for intelligence. Here, we ask how many of them will be born in China." }, { "id": 7923, "title": "By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?", "short_title": "Will unvaccinated patients be denied ICUs?", "url_title": "Will unvaccinated patients be denied ICUs?", "slug": "will-unvaccinated-patients-be-denied-icus", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-09T00:54:15.334895Z", "published_at": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.310953Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-13T01:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-13T01:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T02:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T02:34:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7923, "title": "By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?", "created_at": "2021-09-09T00:54:15.334895Z", "open_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T02:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T02:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-02T02:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-13T01:51:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-13T01:51:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of September 2021, hospitals in [several](https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/10/coronavirus-texas-hospitals-icu-beds/) [states](https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article253602358.html) are reported to be near capacity. Some hospitals in Idaho have officially begun [rationing care](https://apnews.com/article/business-health-public-health-coronavirus-pandemic-idaho-7bdb1aa76f4f98e1c31df3fd9ac338b0), according to its crisis standards, which prioritize patients with the highest probability of survival but not yet directly using vaccination status as a factor. ([Source document for Idaho](https://coronavirus.idaho.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Crisis-Standards-of-Care-Plan_Final_Posted_Signed.pdf); please see page 20.)\n\nHawaii's EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 21-06 signed 1 September 2021 allows medical providers in the state to ration COVID care without fear of liability: https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2109007-ATG_Executive-Order-No.-21-06-distribution-signed.pdf\n\n[WASHINGTON POST: When medical care must be rationed, should vaccination status count](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/08/23/refuse-covid-treatment-unvaccinated-triage/)\n\n>North Texas Mass Critical Care Guideline Task Force had quietly circulated a memo saying that doctors could take vaccination status into account if triage became necessary in assigning hospital beds, though hours later the group said the document had merely been a “homework assignment.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if any hospital in the United States allows doctors to directly and unambiguously take a patient's vaccination status into account if triage becomes necessary in assigning hospital beds.\n\nThis question resolves based on reporting by credible media sources (e.g., The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, local news media, etc.).", "fine_print": "To clarify, merely taking into account a patient's expectation of survival is not enough to resolve this question as yes; that is already being done in the state of Idaho as noted in the background information.", "post_id": 7923, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636747619.206851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636747619.206851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.20727954283055255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.007807124044234717, 0.0, 0.40593969628267484, 0.05025074089134997, 0.1572066883677779, 1.765579968259153, 0.7170020928281433, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4530791231418112, 0.7577261536836212, 0.0, 0.543308524129585, 0.07561306189923878, 1.2586698111390047, 0.15427631000809672, 0.8755937505427275, 0.08332611069851885, 0.31537130601525, 0.2993429183694691, 0.3502665340400789, 0.37796948453327556, 0.12082870651021416, 0.0, 0.0045062425301913315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05583724134722865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4380198073063507, 0.47921874654546887, 0.9514604937553417, 0.8769447279504142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2194278625504006, 0.2806478456704943, 0.012720747494406942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0065036323388337515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005344667174111027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7672464128916316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012543399915659996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 26.71235458800513, "coverage": 0.9985689475753713, "baseline_score": 50.99018065901491, "spot_peer_score": 62.29556033885756, "peer_archived_score": 26.71235458800513, "baseline_archived_score": 50.99018065901491, "spot_peer_archived_score": 62.29556033885756 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636747619.225867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636747619.225867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9096839999345756, 0.09031600006542442 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 152, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of September 2021, hospitals in [several](https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/10/coronavirus-texas-hospitals-icu-beds/) [states](https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article253602358.html) are reported to be near capacity. Some hospitals in Idaho have officially begun [rationing care](https://apnews.com/article/business-health-public-health-coronavirus-pandemic-idaho-7bdb1aa76f4f98e1c31df3fd9ac338b0), according to its crisis standards, which prioritize patients with the highest probability of survival but not yet directly using vaccination status as a factor. ([Source document for Idaho](https://coronavirus.idaho.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Crisis-Standards-of-Care-Plan_Final_Posted_Signed.pdf); please see page 20.)\n\nHawaii's EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 21-06 signed 1 September 2021 allows medical providers in the state to ration COVID care without fear of liability: https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2109007-ATG_Executive-Order-No.-21-06-distribution-signed.pdf\n\n[WASHINGTON POST: When medical care must be rationed, should vaccination status count](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/08/23/refuse-covid-treatment-unvaccinated-triage/)\n\n>North Texas Mass Critical Care Guideline Task Force had quietly circulated a memo saying that doctors could take vaccination status into account if triage became necessary in assigning hospital beds, though hours later the group said the document had merely been a “homework assignment.”" }, { "id": 7922, "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?", "short_title": "Mean log-odds vs probability 1000 questions", "url_title": "Mean log-odds vs probability 1000 questions", "slug": "mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-08T21:06:46.348084Z", "published_at": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.320173Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7922, "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?", "created_at": "2021-09-08T21:06:46.348084Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\n\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\n\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.", "resolution_criteria": "Using the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \n\nThe set of questions used will be the next 1000 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\n\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\n** Related questions **\n\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7922, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632956456.958889, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632956456.958889, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.7789854311952734 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8695168996904183, 0.8727500189273638, 0.46568948063662047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.33423662601949417, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632956456.972129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632956456.972129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1622101761863094, 0.8377898238136906 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\n\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\n\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions." }, { "id": 7921, "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?", "short_title": "Mean log-odds vs probability 300 questions", "url_title": "Mean log-odds vs probability 300 questions", "slug": "mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-08T21:05:51.156294Z", "published_at": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.732361Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:40:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7921, "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?", "created_at": "2021-09-08T21:05:51.156294Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-31T14:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\n\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\n\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.", "resolution_criteria": "Using the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \n\nThe set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\n\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\n** Related questions **\n\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7921, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632956446.707928, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632956446.707928, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6990940487389495 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.7394682331392083, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7340267287201618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.399838639532503, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.912295354696055, "coverage": 0.9789778530067473, "baseline_score": 46.33902955563375, "spot_peer_score": 41.59364079754596, "peer_archived_score": 4.912295354696055, "baseline_archived_score": 46.33902955563375, "spot_peer_archived_score": 41.59364079754596 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632989138.86663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632989138.86663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19135967047604796, 0.808640329523952 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\n\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\n\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions." }, { "id": 7920, "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?", "short_title": "Mean log-odds vs probability 100 questions", "url_title": "Mean log-odds vs probability 100 questions", "slug": "mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-08T21:04:52.559706Z", "published_at": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.509709Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7920, "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?", "created_at": "2021-09-08T21:04:52.559706Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Related questions on Metaculus:**\n\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/)\n\nJsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\n\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.", "resolution_criteria": "Using the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \n\nThe set of questions used will be the next 100 binary questions to resolve which close after September 16, 2021 at 23:00 UTC.\n\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7920, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632982372.354378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632982372.354378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.6812545270915905 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.8000117632316404, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6605050552954834, 0.0, 0.26535223625325605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632989136.644802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632989136.644802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.23824401011411167, 0.7617559898858883 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Related questions on Metaculus:**\n\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/)\n\nJsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\n\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast." }, { "id": 7919, "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?", "short_title": "Mean vs Median Log odds 1000 questions", "url_title": "Mean vs Median Log odds 1000 questions", "slug": "mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-08T21:01:14.011060Z", "published_at": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.842448Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7919, "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?", "created_at": "2021-09-08T21:01:14.011060Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\n\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\n\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.", "resolution_criteria": "Using the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \n\nThe set of questions used will be the next 1000 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\n\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\n** Related questions **\n\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632958167.197286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632958167.197286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6582191974254434 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8944823903749313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.9851719387498559, 0.22188647333713657, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632958167.209888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632958167.209888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30577583628527816, 0.6942241637147218 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\n\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\n\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions." }, { "id": 7918, "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?", "short_title": "Mean vs Median Log odds 300 questions", "url_title": "Mean vs Median Log odds 300 questions", "slug": "mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-08T20:59:47.240270Z", "published_at": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.553911Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:40:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7918, "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?", "created_at": "2021-09-08T20:59:47.240270Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-31T14:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\n\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\n\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.", "resolution_criteria": "Using the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \n\nThe set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\n\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\n** Related questions **\n\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632958183.92957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632958183.92957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6127977486316272 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.9026523710217536, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3024365960635902, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.07386240743899689, 1.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -3.380805077204912, "coverage": 0.9789594085011927, "baseline_score": 29.63535569005422, "spot_peer_score": 5.2680257828913115, "peer_archived_score": -3.380805077204912, "baseline_archived_score": 29.63535569005422, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.2680257828913115 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632958183.944203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632958183.944203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.36578045961422045, 0.6342195403857795 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\n\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\n\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions." }, { "id": 7917, "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?", "short_title": "Mean vs Median Log odds 100 questions", "url_title": "Mean vs Median Log odds 100 questions", "slug": "mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-08T20:56:20.540025Z", "published_at": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.787494Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:35:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7917, "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?", "created_at": "2021-09-08T20:56:20.540025Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-31T14:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "** Related questions **\n\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/)\n\n----\n\nJsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\n\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\n\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 100 questions.", "resolution_criteria": "Using the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \n\nThe set of questions used will be the next 100 binary questions to resolve which close after September 16, 2021 at 23:00 UTC.\n\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7917, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632929332.663372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632929332.663372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5523208529394331 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 1.0, 0.31277297841981777, 1.823864891096226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -3.60211254008737, "coverage": 0.9789330726174056, "baseline_score": 16.385171060691896, "spot_peer_score": -3.6934924283227706, "peer_archived_score": -3.60211254008737, "baseline_archived_score": 16.385171060691896, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.6934924283227706 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632929332.685102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632929332.685102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.39405216091300965, 0.6059478390869903 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "** Related questions **\n\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/)\n* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/)\n* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/)\n\n----\n\nJsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\n\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\n\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 100 questions." }, { "id": 7914, "title": "Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?", "short_title": "India in Artemis Accords by 2025", "url_title": "India in Artemis Accords by 2025", "slug": "india-in-artemis-accords-by-2025", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-08T17:14:26.645250Z", "published_at": "2022-02-22T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.513653Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-22T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-23T19:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-23T19:27:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-22T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7914, "title": "Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-09-08T17:14:26.645250Z", "open_time": "2022-02-22T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-24T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-24T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-23T19:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-23T19:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-23T19:27:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Artemis Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_Accords) are an international space agreement led by the United States. Many allies and friends of the United States and India, such as the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Japan, and Australia, are members. The accords are still open for signature, and will remain so indefinitely. India has a [substantial space program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) which has been the subject of [multiple](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/975/will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out/) [previous](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/) [on](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/) [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3041/will-chandrayaan-2-softly-land-on-the-moon-in-september-2019/) [website.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/657/will-india-land-on-the-moon-by-august-1-2018/) The United States and India have [substantial cooperation in space](https://in.usembassy.gov/bringing-u-s-india-space-cooperation-to-the-edge-of-the-universe-special-address-by-u-s-ambassador-to-india-richard-verma-at-the-orf-kalpana-chawl/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, NASA reports on [its website](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/republic-of-korea-joins-list-of-nations-to-sign-artemis-accords/) that India has signed the Artemis Accords", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7914, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690744870.496875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690744870.496875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.7167955218940142 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.1410852267630558, 0.0, 0.0, 2.576885105841927, 0.0, 0.8507105802698818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6034124947338384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.21526221595892353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0, 1.9222301282905816 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.59443015524754, "coverage": 0.4660274816547366, "baseline_score": 7.192493182043765, "spot_peer_score": -27.37060475346062, "peer_archived_score": -0.59443015524754, "baseline_archived_score": 7.192493182043765, "spot_peer_archived_score": -27.37060475346062 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687231344.749034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687231344.749034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5248580649481204, 0.4751419350518796 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Artemis Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_Accords) are an international space agreement led by the United States. Many allies and friends of the United States and India, such as the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Japan, and Australia, are members. The accords are still open for signature, and will remain so indefinitely. India has a [substantial space program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) which has been the subject of [multiple](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/975/will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out/) [previous](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/) [on](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/) [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3041/will-chandrayaan-2-softly-land-on-the-moon-in-september-2019/) [website.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/657/will-india-land-on-the-moon-by-august-1-2018/) The United States and India have [substantial cooperation in space](https://in.usembassy.gov/bringing-u-s-india-space-cooperation-to-the-edge-of-the-universe-special-address-by-u-s-ambassador-to-india-richard-verma-at-the-orf-kalpana-chawl/)." }, { "id": 7903, "title": "Is the Shannon Capacity of the 7-cycle equal to its Theta function?", "short_title": "Shannon Capacity of the 7-cycle", "url_title": "Shannon Capacity of the 7-cycle", "slug": "shannon-capacity-of-the-7-cycle", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-06T16:33:28.501752Z", "published_at": "2021-09-09T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.175671Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-09T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-09T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7903, "title": "Is the Shannon Capacity of the 7-cycle equal to its Theta function?", "created_at": "2021-09-06T16:33:28.501752Z", "open_time": "2021-09-09T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-11T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-11T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Determining the [Shannon capacity of a 7-cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shannon_capacity_of_a_graph#Computational_complexity) is a famous [open problem](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/shannon_capacity_of_the_seven_cycle) in mathematics and [computer science](https://rjlipton.wpcomstaging.com/2013/07/10/rough-problems/). The best known upper bound for \\(\\Theta(C_7)\\) is \\(\\vartheta(C_7)\\), the value of the [Lovász theta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lov%C3%A1sz_number). This is given by a [semidefinite program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semidefinite_programming) and is similar to some upper bounds for sphere packing.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving that \\(\\Theta(C_7)=\\vartheta(C_7)\\). It will resolve as **No** if there is a publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving that \\(\\Theta(C_7)<\\vartheta(C_7)\\).\n\nIf there is no such proof by January 1, 2300, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by January 1, 2300, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7903, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740023506.393472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.535 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740023506.393472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.535 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.46499999999999997, 0.535 ], "means": [ 0.5351762150495576 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.5766554926712493, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5726661189940503, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289133.579831, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289133.579831, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6880118942365834, 0.3119881057634166 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Determining the [Shannon capacity of a 7-cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shannon_capacity_of_a_graph#Computational_complexity) is a famous [open problem](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/shannon_capacity_of_the_seven_cycle) in mathematics and [computer science](https://rjlipton.wpcomstaging.com/2013/07/10/rough-problems/). The best known upper bound for \\(\\Theta(C_7)\\) is \\(\\vartheta(C_7)\\), the value of the [Lovász theta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lov%C3%A1sz_number). This is given by a [semidefinite program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semidefinite_programming) and is similar to some upper bounds for sphere packing." }, { "id": 7899, "title": "Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?", "short_title": "Will Erin O'Toole be the next PM of Canada?", "url_title": "Will Erin O'Toole be the next PM of Canada?", "slug": "will-erin-otoole-be-the-next-pm-of-canada", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-05T22:08:33.819284Z", "published_at": "2021-09-06T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.994645Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-06T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-19T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-19T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-21T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-21T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-06T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7899, "title": "Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?", "created_at": "2021-09-05T22:08:33.819284Z", "open_time": "2021-09-06T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-07T14:41:29.978286Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-07T14:41:29.978286Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-21T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-21T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-09-21T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-19T16:04:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-19T16:04:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2021 Canadian federal election will take place on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. Erin O'Toole is the leader of the [Conservative Party of Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Canada). Prime ministers typically are the member of the member of Parliament who leads the largest party or a coalition in the House of Commons.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Erin O'Toole is projected to be the next Prime Minister of Canada following the election scheduled for 2021-09-20. This question resolves based on consensus projections by credible media sources (e.g., The Globe and Mail, Toronto Star and New York Times).", "fine_print": "If there is any ambiguity, the question resolves based on whether O'Toole is Prime Minister of Canada on October 31, 2021", "post_id": 7899, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632063192.740364, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632063192.740364, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.2167889384501839 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6902063238793004, 0.3952632697996375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07658881074466624, 0.15628793921235226, 0.0, 0.4247178790473717, 0.0, 0.23434107129204243, 2.5197654828361475, 0.0, 0.1314375106214734, 0.0, 1.0, 0.25210353854005446, 0.3337872932516758, 1.0905650829317135, 0.5580675158202446, 0.08577160466054211, 0.059030897285746065, 0.0, 0.06818282742296448, 0.7806231807234515, 0.0, 1.4218792478350977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7854488077457225, 0.05789071727008291, 0.429368094000161, 0.0, 0.004029996917539339, 0.4971987990568247, 0.0, 0.1045823961563851, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1769212063177643, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026632629625951768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.359660324801237, "coverage": 0.9944661855020502, "baseline_score": 43.0519123502209, "spot_peer_score": 11.259847768171257, "peer_archived_score": 5.359660324801237, "baseline_archived_score": 43.0519123502209, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.259847768171257 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632063192.768775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632063192.768775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8587251094980065, 0.1412748905019935 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2021 Canadian federal election will take place on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. 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