Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4720
{ "count": 6394, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4740", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4700", "results": [ { "id": 7892, "title": "By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?", "short_title": "EA Wiki Alive by 2023", "url_title": "EA Wiki Alive by 2023", "slug": "ea-wiki-alive-by-2023", "author_id": 101341, "author_username": "Pablo", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-02T21:25:59.097444Z", "published_at": "2021-09-05T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.370944Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-05T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-05T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7892, "title": "By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?", "created_at": "2021-09-02T21:25:59.097444Z", "open_time": "2021-09-05T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-07T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Effective Altruism Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all) is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/). It was [launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/X6SyxmhYEo4SofyAL/our-plans-for-hosting-an-ea-wiki-on-the-forum) in March 2021.\n\nProjects in this reference class—roughly, works of reference connected in some form to effective altruism—[appear](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zAEC8BuLYdKmH54t7/ea-infrastructure-fund-may-2021-grant-recommendations#Pablo_Stafforini__EA_Forum_Wiki___34_200_) to have a rather poor track record. One common failure mode is the relatively low quality of even the best published articles. Another failure mode is their relative short duration: after a period of activity, they stagnate or disappear altogether. This question is about the second of these failure modes; for the first type of failure, see [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/).\n\n--\n\nThis is the sixth in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.\n\n1. [How many words of content will have been published?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/)\n2. [What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/)\n3. [What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/)\n4. [How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/)\n5. [What will be the quality of the best articles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/)\n6. *Will the Wiki be \"alive\"?*", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if and only if the average daily number of words published in the three calendar months preceding the question's resolution date is at least 20% the average daily number of words estimated to have been published in the three calendar months preceding the question's opening date. We estimate that an average of 250 words/day were published in the months of June, July and August 2021, so this question will resolve positively if and only if an average of at least 50 words/day are published in the months of October, November and December 2022. The word count will be computed following the method described in the resolution criteria of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) (adjusted for the relevant dates). If the question does not resolve positively, it will resolve negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7892, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672525727.947663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7901615595410905 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672525727.947663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7901615595410905 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20983844045890954, 0.7901615595410905 ], "means": [ 0.7622552628710272 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0646131558445074, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.18732327848854918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6528777780617065, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.4536505002824325, 0.0, 0.8026177043617206, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4953774992691955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.43747005529779254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.7648491918474115, "coverage": 0.9997480721869515, "baseline_score": -71.67077316047916, "spot_peer_score": -48.4700278594052, "peer_archived_score": 0.7648491918474115, "baseline_archived_score": -71.67077316047916, "spot_peer_archived_score": -48.4700278594052 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672525727.964615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672525727.964615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21632313795571512, 0.7836768620442849 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Effective Altruism Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all) is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/). It was [launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/X6SyxmhYEo4SofyAL/our-plans-for-hosting-an-ea-wiki-on-the-forum) in March 2021.\n\nProjects in this reference class—roughly, works of reference connected in some form to effective altruism—[appear](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zAEC8BuLYdKmH54t7/ea-infrastructure-fund-may-2021-grant-recommendations#Pablo_Stafforini__EA_Forum_Wiki___34_200_) to have a rather poor track record. One common failure mode is the relatively low quality of even the best published articles. Another failure mode is their relative short duration: after a period of activity, they stagnate or disappear altogether. This question is about the second of these failure modes; for the first type of failure, see [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/).\n\n--\n\nThis is the sixth in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.\n\n1. [How many words of content will have been published?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/)\n2. [What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/)\n3. [What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/)\n4. [How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/)\n5. [What will be the quality of the best articles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/)\n6. *Will the Wiki be \"alive\"?*" }, { "id": 7882, "title": "By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?", "short_title": "American concern on space by 2030", "url_title": "American concern on space by 2030", "slug": "american-concern-on-space-by-2030", "author_id": 111728, "author_username": "Michael_Townsend", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-09-02T11:51:57.004405Z", "published_at": "2021-09-09T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T19:13:01.117967Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-09T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-09T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7882, "title": "By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?", "created_at": "2021-09-02T11:51:57.004405Z", "open_time": "2021-09-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-11T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-11T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The policy and politics surrounding space governance may have enormous consequences for humanity’s long-term future. Yet, there is currently relatively little interest in the area. [*80,000 Hours*](https://80000hours.org/) lists space governance as among the potential highest priorities for improving the long-term future, [saying that](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/#space-governance):\n\n>Despite the huge stakes, governance of space is an extremely niche area of study and advocacy. As a result, major progress could probably be made by a research community focused on this issue, even just by applying familiar lessons from related fields of law and social science.\n\nWhether this is true may depend on how politically charged the topic becomes. How interested the public is in the topic may reflect or create political interest, and therefore bears on how influential a small research community could be. The interest of the American public is especially important, as America is home to some of the world’s largest space related organizations, such as NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic. \n\n[Since 1933](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/27/us/politics/most-important-problem-gallup-polling-question.html), the [Gallup polling organization](https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx) has asked Americans the question: “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before Jan 1, 2030, Gallup announces a poll, as part of its “[Most Important Problem](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx)” series, showing that 1% of Americans responded with an answer referring to space or space governance.", "fine_print": "Answers to the Gallup poll which refer to space or space governance include:\n\n- Any answer which refers to an aerospace organization, program or object, such as “NASA” or “Sputnik”.\n- Any answer which directly refers to something related to space governance. This does not include indirect references, such as “foreign policy” (even if space governance is at the time an important part of foreign policy). This is to be decided by Metaculus moderators. \n\nIf the Gallup poll is discontinued the question resolves ambiguously.", "post_id": 7882, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763197598.72114, "end_time": 1763774427.904715, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763197598.72114, "end_time": 1763774427.904715, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.060063934434288105 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.29853580031441634, 2.1040467887452396, 1.062990582755872, 0.0, 0.0, 2.924117066533772, 0.8342980490778236, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.5929389988879797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09241538199224705, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.6025236003550163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289256.363642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289256.363642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9813052026580983, 0.018694797341901718 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 139, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The policy and politics surrounding space governance may have enormous consequences for humanity’s long-term future. Yet, there is currently relatively little interest in the area. [*80,000 Hours*](https://80000hours.org/) lists space governance as among the potential highest priorities for improving the long-term future, [saying that](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/#space-governance):\n\n>Despite the huge stakes, governance of space is an extremely niche area of study and advocacy. As a result, major progress could probably be made by a research community focused on this issue, even just by applying familiar lessons from related fields of law and social science.\n\nWhether this is true may depend on how politically charged the topic becomes. How interested the public is in the topic may reflect or create political interest, and therefore bears on how influential a small research community could be. The interest of the American public is especially important, as America is home to some of the world’s largest space related organizations, such as NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic. \n\n[Since 1933](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/27/us/politics/most-important-problem-gallup-polling-question.html), the [Gallup polling organization](https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx) has asked Americans the question: “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?\"." }, { "id": 7876, "title": "Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?", "short_title": "US Boycott of 2022 Beijing Olympics", "url_title": "US Boycott of 2022 Beijing Olympics", "slug": "us-boycott-of-2022-beijing-olympics", "author_id": 119050, "author_username": "crule", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-31T19:10:54.789803Z", "published_at": "2021-09-24T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.843683Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-24T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-04T19:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-04T19:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-03T16:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-03T16:50:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-24T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7876, "title": "Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?", "created_at": "2021-08-31T19:10:54.789803Z", "open_time": "2021-09-24T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-26T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-26T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-03T16:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-03T16:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-02-03T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-04T19:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-04T19:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Related question on Metaculus:**\n\n* [Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6898/quadfiveeyes-boycott-of-2022-winter-olympics/)\n\n----\n\nTalk of a \"new Cold War\" and heightened \"Great Power Competition\" between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC), has recently stoked debate about whether the United States should boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics, which are scheduled to be held in Beijing. (See this [Council on Foreign Relations brief](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/debate-over-boycotting-2022-beijing-olympics) on the boycott debate)\n\nGovernments and human rights activists have pointed to the [PRC's human rights abuses](https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/08/05/higher-faster-harsher-olympics-head-beijing) as a particular reason why Western governments should decide not to let China profit off its athletes, and US allies -- [particularly Canada](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/11/canada-athletes-may-not-be-safe-at-2022-beijing-winter-olympics-opposition-leader-says) -- have suggested that their athletes themselves may not be safe in China.\n\nThere is precedent for Olympic boycotts, including during the Cold War, but [little evidence](https://warontherocks.com/2021/05/a-five-ring-circus-in-china-the-proposed-boycott-of-the-2022-winter-olympics/) that such boycotts work in the sense of getting states to change their policies.\n\nUS government spokespeople have said [as recently as April 2021](https://deadline.com/2021/04/olympics-china-joe-biden-boycott-1234728898/) that they were not discussing a boycott with allies and partners.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve if the US Olympic team is not represented at the 2022 Beijing Olympics. If the US and partners decide to hold an alternative to the games outside China, it will be considered a \"boycott.\" If individual athletes on the US team boycott the games, but the US team is officially participating, it will not be considered a \"US boycott.\"\n\nThis question will close retroactively 24 hours before an official spokesperson for the US team or State Department announces that the US team will boycott.", "fine_print": "If the Olympics are postponed, any winter olympics event happening between 2022-2025 (inclusive) in China will be considered \"The 2022 Beijing Olympics\".", "post_id": 7876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638647008.329294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638647008.329294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.09181463961427203 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.8646142387452875, 0.025714195360684557, 0.23848412438085412, 0.667196579275483, 1.6440192503410838, 1.5256325022154575, 1.2390748797458802, 0.07069549373535547, 1.3987278991507734, 0.533216063660612, 0.0, 0.5402230841898076, 0.11623690189034655, 0.0, 0.0027844015881518533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05364551847354191, 0.0, 0.8759394317132335, 0.5800126913759308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44287755676128004, 0.09811800649559727, 0.0, 0.8190790998590399, 0.0, 0.001339079145820899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.2979432224533705, "coverage": 0.9998390797917697, "baseline_score": 89.49259993631955, "spot_peer_score": 11.932628685702987, "peer_archived_score": 4.2979432224533705, "baseline_archived_score": 89.49259993631955, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.932628685702987 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638647008.357322, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638647008.357322, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9575336795128726, 0.04246632048712744 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Related question on Metaculus:**\n\n* [Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6898/quadfiveeyes-boycott-of-2022-winter-olympics/)\n\n----\n\nTalk of a \"new Cold War\" and heightened \"Great Power Competition\" between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC), has recently stoked debate about whether the United States should boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics, which are scheduled to be held in Beijing. (See this [Council on Foreign Relations brief](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/debate-over-boycotting-2022-beijing-olympics) on the boycott debate)\n\nGovernments and human rights activists have pointed to the [PRC's human rights abuses](https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/08/05/higher-faster-harsher-olympics-head-beijing) as a particular reason why Western governments should decide not to let China profit off its athletes, and US allies -- [particularly Canada](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/11/canada-athletes-may-not-be-safe-at-2022-beijing-winter-olympics-opposition-leader-says) -- have suggested that their athletes themselves may not be safe in China.\n\nThere is precedent for Olympic boycotts, including during the Cold War, but [little evidence](https://warontherocks.com/2021/05/a-five-ring-circus-in-china-the-proposed-boycott-of-the-2022-winter-olympics/) that such boycotts work in the sense of getting states to change their policies.\n\nUS government spokespeople have said [as recently as April 2021](https://deadline.com/2021/04/olympics-china-joe-biden-boycott-1234728898/) that they were not discussing a boycott with allies and partners." }, { "id": 7872, "title": "Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "short_title": "US recognize Taliban government by 2030", "url_title": "US recognize Taliban government by 2030", "slug": "us-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-30T23:21:56.763686Z", "published_at": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:08:56.846713Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-29T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7872, "title": "Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-08-30T23:21:56.763686Z", "open_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-27T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-27T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-29T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-29T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The United States has said it is [premature](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-premature-to-recognize-taliban-as-legitimate-government-of-afghanistan/ar-AANqEPV) to recognize the Taliban. The US has [also said](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/usa/news/no-quick-recognition-taliban-us-or-allies-2163551) that recognition of the Taliban would be contingent on the Taliban respecting women's rights and not supporting terrorism.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the United States of America has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7872, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763549839.349204, "end_time": 1764108274.62983, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763549839.349204, "end_time": 1764108274.62983, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12012605907946974 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.24164198844540966, 0.5754752858131378, 0.0, 0.7738156987476541, 2.289986418744341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8302877166744512, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06987644194532422, 0.0, 0.5584580948134545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288653.084622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288653.084622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9761119276123148, 0.02388807238768525 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 134, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The United States has said it is [premature](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-premature-to-recognize-taliban-as-legitimate-government-of-afghanistan/ar-AANqEPV) to recognize the Taliban. The US has [also said](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/usa/news/no-quick-recognition-taliban-us-or-allies-2163551) that recognition of the Taliban would be contingent on the Taliban respecting women's rights and not supporting terrorism." }, { "id": 7871, "title": "Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?", "short_title": "Female Fields Medalist at ICM 2022", "url_title": "Female Fields Medalist at ICM 2022", "slug": "female-fields-medalist-at-icm-2022", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-30T22:48:03.655428Z", "published_at": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.369312Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-04T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-04T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-05T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-05T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7871, "title": "Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?", "created_at": "2021-08-30T22:48:03.655428Z", "open_time": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-15T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-15T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-05T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-05T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-04T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-04T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Fields Medal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fields_Medal) is given our every four years, and will next be awarded at the 2022 [International Congress of Mathematicians](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Congress_of_Mathematicians). In 2014, the late [Maryam Mirzakhani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryam_Mirzakhani) became the first female Fields Medalist. [Maryna Viazovska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryna_Viazovska) is a prominent female mathematician, and is eligible to win the Fields Medal in 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolve to yes if reliable media reports indicate that a woman won the Fields Medal at the 2022 International Congress of Mathematicians", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7871, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1649019897.134368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1649019897.134368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.5120278125739297 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1720825312572982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07982935021231018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01542797475028349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.1044566989326711, 0.49914224692442205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12556821601702145, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.8835474476052594, 1.570405096307647, 2.621868954500767, 0.0, 0.6423888484513706, 0.012852091876617526, 0.5830423478503257, 0.0, 1.623702605627066, 0.0, 0.8513749038303636, 0.3218247103937224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9332279151094689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26102326165716355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07128274001026091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.063459122985457 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.228786410487467, "coverage": 0.99997922615714, "baseline_score": -7.752561238164247, "spot_peer_score": 3.149884393443325, "peer_archived_score": 5.228786410487467, "baseline_archived_score": -7.752561238164247, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.149884393443325 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1649019897.158751, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1649019897.158751, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5964671889592831, 0.4035328110407169 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Fields Medal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fields_Medal) is given our every four years, and will next be awarded at the 2022 [International Congress of Mathematicians](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Congress_of_Mathematicians). In 2014, the late [Maryam Mirzakhani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryam_Mirzakhani) became the first female Fields Medalist. [Maryna Viazovska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryna_Viazovska) is a prominent female mathematician, and is eligible to win the Fields Medal in 2022." }, { "id": 7862, "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?", "short_title": "Sam Bankman-Fried to donate $1bn before 2031", "url_title": "Sam Bankman-Fried to donate $1bn before 2031", "slug": "sam-bankman-fried-to-donate-1bn-before-2031", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-30T14:56:21.470631Z", "published_at": "2021-09-04T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T08:16:38.069828Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-04T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-04T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 158, 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Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2050-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.334821Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T01:08:31.808671Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2978, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Effective Altruism Resources Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2050-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.334821Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T01:08:31.808671Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7862, "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?", "created_at": "2021-08-30T14:56:21.470631Z", "open_time": "2021-09-04T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-06T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-06T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried) is a US cryptocurrency billionaire, with an estimated net worth of $16.2 billion in August 2021, [according to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2021/08/11/10-giant-crypto-and-blockchain-rounds-single-handedly-raised-39-billion-this-year/?sh=5ae541b32e2e).\n\nBankman-Fried is a long time advocate for Effective Altruism, and has on numerous occasions stated his intention to [give most of his fortune away](https://fortune.com/2021/07/29/sam-bankman-fried-crypto-billionaire-ftx/).\n\nThis question asks if he will manage to grant over $1bn 2021 USD before 2031.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positive if, by year end 2030, there is a public record of donations by SBF or grants by a grantmaking organisation of which he is the primary funder (see fine print) which total over $1bn in 2021 USD.\n\nDonations to political campaigns or to an unallocated DAF or foundation which is under his control should not be counted for this question. Donations by the FTX Foundation should not count either, except if the assets in question are donated to the Foundation by Bankman-Fried himself and regranted by the question deadline. Donations to foundations or trusts which he does not control, but is a beneficiary of; or that exist wholly, primarily, or partly for the benefit of his friends and family should also be excluded.", "fine_print": "If Bankman-Fried is the primary funder of a grantmaking organisation but not the sole funder, the amount granted for the purpose of this qustion should be the best available estimate of what fraction of funding he provides, multiplied by the amount granted. \n\nIf he funds such an organisation with a spouse (i.e. similar to Bill and Melinda Gates' Foundation, or Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna's Good Ventures), then their combined contribution should be counted for the purpose of this question.\n\nIf some combination of the above options sums to $1bn, without double counting the donation and regranting of the same funds, then this should resolve positively.", "post_id": 7862, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763538684.424468, "end_time": 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"key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried) is a US cryptocurrency billionaire, with an estimated net worth of $16.2 billion in August 2021, [according to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2021/08/11/10-giant-crypto-and-blockchain-rounds-single-handedly-raised-39-billion-this-year/?sh=5ae541b32e2e).\n\nBankman-Fried is a long time advocate for Effective Altruism, and has on numerous occasions stated his intention to [give most of his fortune away](https://fortune.com/2021/07/29/sam-bankman-fried-crypto-billionaire-ftx/).\n\nThis question asks if he will manage to grant over $1bn 2021 USD before 2031." }, { "id": 7861, "title": "Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "short_title": "China recognize Taliban government by 2030", "url_title": "China recognize Taliban government by 2030", "slug": "china-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030", 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"open_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-06T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-29T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-29T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). [Multiple](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-prepared-to-recognize-taliban-if-kabul-falls-sources-say-undermining-u-s-threats/ar-AANfznt) [sources](https://nypost.com/2021/08/13/china-prepares-to-recognize-taliban-if-it-topples-afghan-govt-report/) have reported that China is considering recognizing the Taliban.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if before 2030-01-01, reliable media sources report that the Chinese government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7861, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763310479.035129, "end_time": 1763883953.04489, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763310479.035129, "end_time": 1763883953.04489, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.7839622888025298 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7663342664979145, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 2.1110889796361874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.29853580031441634, 0.9134233950753721, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8979177234661817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.45519841789915544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286947.323267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286947.323267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3027239705262237, 0.6972760294737763 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 232, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). [Multiple](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-prepared-to-recognize-taliban-if-kabul-falls-sources-say-undermining-u-s-threats/ar-AANfznt) [sources](https://nypost.com/2021/08/13/china-prepares-to-recognize-taliban-if-it-topples-afghan-govt-report/) have reported that China is considering recognizing the Taliban." }, { "id": 7860, "title": "Will Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "short_title": "Pakistan recognize Taliban government by 2030", "url_title": "Pakistan recognize Taliban government by 2030", "slug": "pakistan-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-30T03:50:44.041810Z", "published_at": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.903362Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7860, "title": "Will Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-08-30T03:50:44.041810Z", "open_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-06T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). Historically, Pakistan has had [close ties with the Taliban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban#Pakistan) and helped to [create it](https://www.npr.org/2021/08/27/1031809296/pakistan-helped-create-the-taliban-heres-what-it-means-for-the-country-now).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Pakistani government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7860, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763738928.940511, "end_time": 1763844491.391815, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763738928.940511, "end_time": 1763844491.391815, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8213009969887032 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5239178922897878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 3.0812154935393097, 0.0, 0.11036652594063484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.5149763659161427, 0.8402148505771252, 0.1305788688240645, 0.0, 0.7766628949810052, 0.43563441074387765, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 1.105906928684369 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289735.381906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289735.381906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2431521637535332, 0.7568478362464668 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 169, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). Historically, Pakistan has had [close ties with the Taliban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban#Pakistan) and helped to [create it](https://www.npr.org/2021/08/27/1031809296/pakistan-helped-create-the-taliban-heres-what-it-means-for-the-country-now)." }, { "id": 7859, "title": "Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "short_title": "Turkish Recognition of Taliban Gov by 2030", "url_title": "Turkish Recognition of Taliban Gov by 2030", "slug": "turkish-recognition-of-taliban-gov-by-2030", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-30T03:46:59.492268Z", "published_at": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T21:08:46.817211Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7859, "title": "Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-08-30T03:46:59.492268Z", "open_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-06T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The Taliban [have expressed](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1427016723039985668) that they view Turkey not as an enemy, but as an ally.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point between September 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030, the Turkish government formally recognizes the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7859, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763738903.902106, "end_time": 1764022447.132805, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763738903.902106, "end_time": 1764022447.132805, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.652849707689912 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 1.103128479000918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.7217847456909756, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8395086548773478, 1.0717411591541142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29451485373338854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8336406352496798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 1.0, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287264.540963, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287264.540963, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.49155781836382595, 0.508442181636174 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 191, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The Taliban [have expressed](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1427016723039985668) that they view Turkey not as an enemy, but as an ally." }, { "id": 7857, "title": "Will a US Census in 2070 or earlier show a decline in population?", "short_title": "US Population Decline by 2070", "url_title": "US Population Decline by 2070", "slug": "us-population-decline-by-2070", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-30T02:44:39.292607Z", "published_at": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.750472Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2072-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2072-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7857, "title": "Will a US Census in 2070 or earlier show a decline in population?", "created_at": "2021-08-30T02:44:39.292607Z", "open_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-04T05:00:10.719260Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-04T05:00:10.719260Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2072-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2072-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2072-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [United States Census](https://www.census.gov/) takes a census every 10 years. In the [most recent census in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_census), the US population had grown by 7.4% in the past decade. This is contrast to [some developed nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate) whose populations are declining, though [population growth in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States) has slowed and the 7.4% is one of the lowest-ever decade-on-decade growth rates ever recorded. Recently, [US fertility has hit record lows](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/22/u-s-fertility-rate-explained/) though it is still not as low as [countries like Japan, Italy, Spain, and South Korea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate) [Immigration to the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States) is a significant source of population growth, especially in contrast with countries like Japan.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a Census conducted before 2071 shows a drop in US population over the previous Census, according to [official statistics from the United States Census Bureau.](https://www.census.gov/) If the Census Bureau changes its name or merges into another entity, those statistics will be used instead", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7857, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755639549.922823, "end_time": 1801321846.912617, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.443 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755639549.922823, "end_time": 1801321846.912617, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.443 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5569999999999999, 0.443 ], "means": [ 0.4296243254525343 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7946535652794059, 0.11748690146061783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9320576437636137, 0.02787040782505333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22659881065625792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6694196130082288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007406772822704901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004474424132665067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003256133383704309, 0.17268889098444576, 1.0, 0.37643329243262963, 0.0, 0.025290490754560285, 0.013393291873889481, 0.6483113463125618, 0.03806556990920311, 0.5576688763820327, 0.011157123373592481, 1.2761408376295063, 0.6484149088826142, 0.04888313629975682, 0.8952454699341083, 0.3469183260877188, 0.0, 0.11169013059160172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4779236959628912, 0.1061981125451795, 0.26969150866663705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9665291802258107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15724883273568244, 0.061881780206469506, 0.0, 0.8079741623456276, 0.0, 0.0862062439156513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021518476613089726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.189341530780365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2473710650506747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44181099202797386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021822720259255364 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289510.344665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289510.344665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6830479155569433, 0.3169520844430566 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 146, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [United States Census](https://www.census.gov/) takes a census every 10 years. In the [most recent census in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_census), the US population had grown by 7.4% in the past decade. This is contrast to [some developed nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate) whose populations are declining, though [population growth in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States) has slowed and the 7.4% is one of the lowest-ever decade-on-decade growth rates ever recorded. Recently, [US fertility has hit record lows](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/22/u-s-fertility-rate-explained/) though it is still not as low as [countries like Japan, Italy, Spain, and South Korea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate) [Immigration to the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States) is a significant source of population growth, especially in contrast with countries like Japan." }, { "id": 7850, "title": "Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?", "short_title": "GOP Control of US Senate in 2025", "url_title": "GOP Control of US Senate in 2025", "slug": "gop-control-of-us-senate-in-2025", "author_id": 112036, "author_username": "TomL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-27T12:58:40.615891Z", "published_at": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.726058Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 74, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T15:34:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 241, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7850, "title": "Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?", "created_at": "2021-08-27T12:58:40.615891Z", "open_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-03T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-03T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T15:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-01T15:34:53.931183Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elections):\n\n> The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on February 1, 2025, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.", "fine_print": "For reference, generally when the Senate is divided 50/50 the majority party is determined by the party of the Vice President. An illustrative example of how the majority party is determined is the 107th Congress, where the majority party switched 3 times between Jan 1, 2000 and Dec 31, 2002 due to the VP's party changing, senators switching parties, and vacancies. 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Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\n\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2024, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n\n435* seats will be contested in 2024 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2025 and certifies its membership.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": ".* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n \n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.", "post_id": 7849, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730782137.99438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.507 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730782137.99438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.507 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4548395306591903 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6189518782725534, 0.008627621785574194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04762269370377845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2715500326173599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09789415930094204, 0.0, 0.03637289593621137, 0.0, 0.49425687319296474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027857264408987694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09014686962686311, 0.0, 0.007281852916988128, 0.0, 1.0306760234499164, 3.279824823149395, 0.28768597390314604, 0.8660891721099006, 1.6990200835299816, 1.4883061605847017, 1.7577261862467524, 1.0201988867046627, 0.4305462022703199, 0.3583533270467611, 0.24291813701348164, 2.8680368264634337, 0.9296441515114167, 0.3813233704947667, 4.665879563789989e-05, 0.5956131147240563, 0.4111309420521202, 0.015827565148923195, 0.012826644341650217, 0.0, 0.00011634523772452915, 1.0243424971520578, 0.1273203217178757, 0.0013526625127957372, 0.0, 0.0014906433286507206, 0.40214437312366014, 0.0003593386123615246, 0.0008989490934055834, 0.0004507039290160299, 0.0, 0.26648659892297133, 0.0016397732833034772, 0.00030379767063669827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6528770480996634, 0.0039254043743176415, 0.0021615374071713178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033302766155079025, 0.0008070505794469351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04269188847955649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006452962997594377, 6.0996143889238595e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003207956219084214 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 21.42061818851607, "peer_score": 1.3144680242461522, "coverage": 0.9999389092506195, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999389092506195, "spot_peer_score": 6.948687082286026, "baseline_archived_score": 21.42061818851607, "peer_archived_score": 1.3144680242461522, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.948687082286026 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287730.492416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287730.492416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6270522446688496, 0.3729477553311505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 475, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the White House, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. 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"group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Swedish Social Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_Social_Democratic_Party), officially the Social Democratic Workers' Party of Sweden, usually referred to as Social Democrats, is a social-democratic political party in Sweden founded in 1889, the SAP is the country's oldest and currently largest party, getting 28.3% of the popular vote in the 2018 election.\n\nThe party has been heading the government since 2014 under Prime Minister [Stefan Löfven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_L%C3%B6fven), who has been the party leader since 2012. \n\nDuring the [2021 Swedish governmental crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Swedish_government_crisis), Löfven stepped down as Prime Minister on June 28th, but was re-elected by the Riksdag 9 days later.\n\nOn August 22 2021, during his yearly summer speech, Löfven announced that he would step down as party leader and that his successor would be chosen at the party congress in November of 2021.\n\n[Magdalena Andersson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magdalena_Andersson_(Social_Democrat)) is the current Minister of Finance and is widely considered as one of the favorites to be the next party leader (and if so, probably the next Prime Minister as well if she is tolerated by the Riksdag).\n\nSweden has its next [general 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(Synonyms to \"interim leader\" also counts as \"clearly stated\").\n\nIf the next party leader is chosen before the Social Democratic party congress which takes place 3-7 November of 2021, then this question should retroactively close 24 hours before the new leader was chosen.\n\nThe question does not depend on when the next party leader is chosen but if no new party leader is chosen before 2030 then this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7848, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635714277.903665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635714277.903665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7676910515275521 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635714277.9208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635714277.9208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1952923826026035, 0.8047076173973965 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Swedish Social Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_Social_Democratic_Party), officially the Social Democratic Workers' Party of Sweden, usually referred to as Social Democrats, is a social-democratic political party in Sweden founded in 1889, the SAP is the country's oldest and currently largest party, getting 28.3% of the popular vote in the 2018 election.\n\nThe party has been heading the government since 2014 under Prime Minister [Stefan Löfven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_L%C3%B6fven), who has been the party leader since 2012. \n\nDuring the [2021 Swedish governmental crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Swedish_government_crisis), Löfven stepped down as Prime Minister on June 28th, but was re-elected by the Riksdag 9 days later.\n\nOn August 22 2021, during his yearly summer speech, Löfven announced that he would step down as party leader and that his successor would be chosen at the party congress in November of 2021.\n\n[Magdalena Andersson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magdalena_Andersson_(Social_Democrat)) is the current Minister of Finance and is widely considered as one of the favorites to be the next party leader (and if so, probably the next Prime Minister as well if she is tolerated by the Riksdag).\n\nSweden has its next [general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Swedish_general_election) in September of 2022." }, { "id": 7841, "title": "Will there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?", "short_title": "Non-BJP Indian PM before 2030", "url_title": "Non-BJP Indian PM before 2030", "slug": "non-bjp-indian-pm-before-2030", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-25T21:58:31.219635Z", "published_at": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.709690Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-28T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-28T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": 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The BJP won a majority of 282 seats in India's [Lok Sabha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lok_Sabha) in 2014 and increase that majority to [303 seats in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election), outperforming expectations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if before 2031-01-01, an Indian Prime Minister takes office who is not a member of the BJP, or if the acting Prime Minister changes membership to another party.", "fine_print": "[EIDT] Sylvain 2021-09-02: reversed the title, which was the opposite of the resolution criteria.", "post_id": 7841, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762916060.46817, "end_time": 1763917912.989864, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.35333333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762916060.46817, "end_time": 1763917912.989864, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.35333333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6466666666666667, 0.35333333333333333 ], "means": [ 0.31836932688490754 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 1.0061828972898046, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287067.350362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287067.350362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.711984924803869, 0.28801507519613107 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 142, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Prime Minister Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi) of India is a member of the [BJP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatiya_Janata_Party). The BJP won a majority of 282 seats in India's [Lok Sabha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lok_Sabha) in 2014 and increase that majority to [303 seats in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election), outperforming expectations." }, { "id": 7840, "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", "short_title": "US rejoins Iran Deal before 2023", "url_title": "US rejoins Iran Deal before 2023", "slug": "us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-25T21:45:53.822164Z", "published_at": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.520367Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-25T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-25T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7840, "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-08-25T21:45:53.822164Z", "open_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-02T07:51:29.956442Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-02T07:51:29.956442Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-25T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-25T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/) asked if the United States would rejoin the JCPOA, informally known as the [Iran nuclear deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) before 2022. Trump [withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal. Biden [has expressed interest](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) in returning to the deal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2023-01-01, 00:00 EST. The order must go into effect before 2023-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. 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Trump [withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal. Biden [has expressed interest](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) in returning to the deal." }, { "id": 7839, "title": "Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?", "short_title": "Sci-Hub Exists in 2023", "url_title": "Sci-Hub Exists in 2023", "slug": "sci-hub-exists-in-2023", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-25T16:20:47.180111Z", "published_at": "2021-09-01T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.723943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-01T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:38:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-01T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7839, "title": "Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?", "created_at": "2021-08-25T16:20:47.180111Z", "open_time": "2021-09-01T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-03T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-02T00:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-01T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. ([about the order](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/delhi-hc-asks-libgen-sci-hub-to-stop-uploading-articles-as-they-face-copyright-infringement-charges/story-cRWCB1sGs1yMqR3TCpuvmL.html), [Reddit thread with updates](https://www.reddit.com/r/scihub/comments/lofj0r/announcement_scihub_has_been_paused_no_new/))", "resolution_criteria": "If Sci-Hub exists and is uploading new papers to its database at any point in 2023, this question will resolve positively.\n\nIf another organisation widely reported to have involvement from Alexandra Elbakyan providing a similar service (as judged by Metaculus mods) to Sci-Hub exists and is uploading new papers, this should still resolve positively. \n\nOtherwise it should resolve negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7839, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648845398.512271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648845398.512271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.08999999999999997, 0.91 ], "means": [ 0.8833034402286167 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36126950895310606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038098485368474766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7846152092275941, 0.0, 0.19044414436503487, 0.0, 0.5472142148800692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031191153071574097, 0.32447204046077827, 0.5134991000077342, 0.0, 0.0006320132079752626, 0.0021754227014258746, 0.0, 1.8379222740262633, 0.0, 0.018608132845437077, 0.1590964710113183, 0.901399558669847, 1.8457042167160396, 1.5273155073789373, 0.9272120649424058, 0.3376317917237811, 0.25497232596493324, 3.448603711545337, 0.46452280999816337, 0.22070116988518806, 0.0, 0.4994508966879541 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.946755332819955, "coverage": 0.9977258059515113, "baseline_score": -176.93419573500094, "spot_peer_score": -2.445223147346627, "peer_archived_score": 5.946755332819955, "baseline_archived_score": -176.93419573500094, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.445223147346627 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648845398.561357, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648845398.561357, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10046306570670194, 0.8995369342932981 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 143, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. 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For an objection to be considered and voted on, it must be in writing and made by at least one representative and one senator. This has happened 4 times - once each in 1969 and 2005, and twice in 2021.\n\nIn 2021, the returns from [Arizona](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/01/06/sen-ted-cruz-house-gop-republicans-object-to-arizona-electoral-votes-congress) and [Pennsylvania](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/live-update/pro-trump-mob-breaches-u-s-capitol/1-senator-and-80-house-members-object-to-pennsylvania-results-triggering-further-debate) were objected to and debated - with both objections defeated - and this would not have been enough to swing the election, as their combined 31 electoral votes, if changed from Biden to Trump, would still have left Biden the victor.\n\nThis question asks if sufficiently many objections will be made to potentially influence the outcome of the election.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if enough states are debated under 3 US Code § 15 after the 2024 US Presidential Election such that some combination of these states' electoral votes being flipped to another candidate would change the outcome of the election", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7832, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735956842.45914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735956842.45914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06244562216409682 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.8747549133140187, 4.304071309650511, 1.1131110419294883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.14546338707250028, 0.33172114962632787, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.6504713555068609, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 67.69756338487005, "peer_score": 10.077416595186543, "coverage": 0.9999262027531378, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999262027531378, "spot_peer_score": 26.539256687790342, "spot_baseline_score": 89.53026213333065, "baseline_archived_score": 67.69756338487005, "peer_archived_score": 10.077416595186543, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.539256687790342, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 89.53026213333065 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290345.576113, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290345.576113, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8465920068031085, 0.15340799319689144 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Under 3 U.S.C. §15, the US Houses of Congress meet on January 6th following the election [to count the votes of the electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_Count_Act).\n\nIf there are any objections to the returns from any state, they must be resolved before the process can continue to the next state. For an objection to be considered and voted on, it must be in writing and made by at least one representative and one senator. This has happened 4 times - once each in 1969 and 2005, and twice in 2021.\n\nIn 2021, the returns from [Arizona](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/01/06/sen-ted-cruz-house-gop-republicans-object-to-arizona-electoral-votes-congress) and [Pennsylvania](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/live-update/pro-trump-mob-breaches-u-s-capitol/1-senator-and-80-house-members-object-to-pennsylvania-results-triggering-further-debate) were objected to and debated - with both objections defeated - and this would not have been enough to swing the election, as their combined 31 electoral votes, if changed from Biden to Trump, would still have left Biden the victor.\n\nThis question asks if sufficiently many objections will be made to potentially influence the outcome of the election." }, { "id": 7831, "title": "In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?", "short_title": "US Election 2024 Decided by Supreme Court", "url_title": "US Election 2024 Decided by Supreme Court", "slug": "us-election-2024-decided-by-supreme-court", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-24T14:47:21.959415Z", "published_at": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.083947Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-18T11:07:00Z", "open_time": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7831, "title": "In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?", "created_at": "2021-08-24T14:47:21.959415Z", "open_time": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-04T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-04T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-18T11:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-18T11:07:29.631698Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2000, the 5-4 decision by the US Supreme Court in [Bush v Gore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore) was widely considered to have decided the outcome of the US election. In 2020, there were numerous attempts (e.g. [here](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-court-denies-texas-challenge-overturn-2020-election/story?id=74680935) and [here](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/22/supreme-court-declines-take-2020-election-case-pennsylvania/6578884002/)) to bring cases regarding the election before the Supreme Court, but all were denied.\n\nThis question asks if the Supreme Court will hear and decide a case in 2024 or 2025 which has the potential to overturn the election results.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, in 2024 or 2025, a case relating to the 2024 US Presidential Election is heard and decided by the US Supreme Court which, if decided differently, would lead to different individuals being made US president. \n\nThis should exclude cases being brought before the Supreme Court which are unrelated to the 2024 election, for example a case related to impeachment of a president, or a case related to the invocation of the 25th amendment.\n\nAt least three credible media reports from different sources should be used to determine if deciding the case differently would influence the outcome of the election", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7831, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738013335.221377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738013335.221377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01399001832395327 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.275601118556198, 1.5263083083418816, 0.6532961746085102, 0.15773117134507314, 0.24179303549330136, 0.5061501595452582, 0.320932639413927, 0.13959566381946276, 0.06688269246759945, 0.0, 0.6494093950567947, 0.00792443883308247, 0.031632211394261076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049438257303058106, 0.01810777154832202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028935987500173357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004659830558370482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021951255190573254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006246102070092039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013371869685048636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009674152661148447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001557486043652286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 86.89011282593736, "peer_score": 9.352245683634626, "coverage": 0.9998201382542894, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998201382542894, "spot_peer_score": 6.34231727824734, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "baseline_archived_score": 86.89011282593736, "peer_archived_score": 9.352245683634626, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.34231727824734, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289357.419484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289357.419484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9933196080065236, 0.006680391993476317 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 226, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2000, the 5-4 decision by the US Supreme Court in [Bush v Gore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore) was widely considered to have decided the outcome of the US election. In 2020, there were numerous attempts (e.g. [here](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-court-denies-texas-challenge-overturn-2020-election/story?id=74680935) and [here](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/22/supreme-court-declines-take-2020-election-case-pennsylvania/6578884002/)) to bring cases regarding the election before the Supreme Court, but all were denied.\n\nThis question asks if the Supreme Court will hear and decide a case in 2024 or 2025 which has the potential to overturn the election results." }, { "id": 7829, "title": "In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?", "short_title": "US State to overturn election result 2024", "url_title": "US State to overturn election result 2024", "slug": "us-state-to-overturn-election-result-2024", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/)\n\n----\n\nIn US presidential elections, it is required that states submit their results by the Safe Harbor deadline, which is the date 6 days prior to the meeting of the electoral college, when the president is officially elected.\n\nIn 2020, there were numerous efforts at the state level in a number of states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, to change the result from the result projected by major news organisations, often alleging that voter fraud had resulted in Joe Biden's victory. None of these were ultimately successful.\n\n***In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any US state officially submit results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline that are different from the projected winner of that state?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if any US state (including DC and districts of states) officially submits results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline (currently, December 10th, 2024) that are different from the projected winner of that state according to at least 6 of the following news desks: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, AP, Reuters, and the NYT.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7829, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730399217.503796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730399217.503796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T16:32:32.508927Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the 2020 US Presidential election, [major news desks called the election for Joe Biden](https://apnews.com/article/media-calls-joe-biden-winner-bee69f9d1d32e84d68e6164ea956e67a) in the week following the November election. Despite this, [a concerted effort was launched using various methods in an attempt to overturn this result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempts_to_overturn_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election), such that betting markets still [placed nontrivial probabilities](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-betting-idUSKBN27S1P5) on the result being overturned for much of the next two months until Joe Biden's inauguration.\n\nThis question asks if we will see a situation in 2025 where the newly inaugurated president is not from the party which was called by major news desks as having won the election.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the US President inaugurated in 2025 is from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of the following news desks: ABC News, AP, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News and NBC News", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7828, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729527566.673533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729527566.673533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03687233377928739 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8668714513010786, 6.294701875999726, 0.5525321714619232, 1.0832095071001242, 0.1705603323300624, 1.872860760234643, 0.011970422053018563, 0.37127018073691126, 0.18989492489425602, 0.0591057465619562, 0.06270011036190197, 0.5127619511096474, 0.16258498711236333, 0.26540318263127977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06639265352365246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10277262157203126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.02082139806478, "peer_score": 3.4063702779890623, "coverage": 0.9998339739547419, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998339739547419, "spot_peer_score": 3.397020789880287, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 91.02082139806478, "peer_archived_score": 3.4063702779890623, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.397020789880287, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289619.153936, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289619.153936, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9981963369074935, 0.0018036630925065086 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the 2020 US Presidential election, [major news desks called the election for Joe Biden](https://apnews.com/article/media-calls-joe-biden-winner-bee69f9d1d32e84d68e6164ea956e67a) in the week following the November election. Despite this, [a concerted effort was launched using various methods in an attempt to overturn this result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempts_to_overturn_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election), such that betting markets still [placed nontrivial probabilities](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-betting-idUSKBN27S1P5) on the result being overturned for much of the next two months until Joe Biden's inauguration.\n\nThis question asks if we will see a situation in 2025 where the newly inaugurated president is not from the party which was called by major news desks as having won the election." } ] }