Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4740
{ "count": 6394, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4760", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4720", "results": [ { "id": 7819, "title": "Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?", "short_title": "Afghanistan-based anti-NATO terrorism by 2027", "url_title": "Afghanistan-based anti-NATO terrorism by 2027", "slug": "afghanistan-based-anti-nato-terrorism-by-2027", "author_id": 112733, "author_username": "wobblybobby", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-24T02:43:58.674116Z", "published_at": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T16:44:42.731000Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7819, "title": "Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?", "created_at": "2021-08-24T02:43:58.674116Z", "open_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "By August 2021, most of Afghanistan has fallen under the control of the Taliban, including the capital of Kabul on August 15. The last time the Taliban controlled Afghanistan, it was the location of [Al Qaeda training bases and leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_for_the_September_11_attacks) that led to the 9/11 attacks on the United States and the subsequent invasion of Afghanistan by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, there is [increased concern](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-08-15/concerns-over-us-terror-threats-rising-as-taliban-seizes-power-in-afghanistan) that it will be used as a base for terrorist attacks.", "resolution_criteria": "***Will Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively in the event that both of the below are true, based on credible media reports: \n\n1. A terrorist attack that kill at least 10 people has been conducted against a NATO nation by December 31, 2026. Such an attack must occur outside of Afghanistan.\n\n**AND**\n\n2. This terrorist attack was carried out by: \n - A member of the Afghan Taliban, *or*\n - A member of any terrorist organization funded, supported, or protected by the Afghan Taliban.\n\n* Resolution will be based on credible media reports of a determination by any of the below entities: \n - The United States federal government \n - NATO\n - The European Union\n\n* If one or more such attacks have not been confirmed by any of the above entities, then this question will resolve negatively.\n\n[fine-print]\n1. An attack will be considered \"against a NATO nation\" if it occurs within a NATO nation's internationally recognized borders, or is deliberately targeted towards a NATO nation's government facilities or personnel overseas (e.g. embassy or military base) outside of Afghanistan. A terrorist attack within a non-NATO nation that is not targeted at a NATO nation's government facility or personnel (e.g. an attack on a sports stadium in India that incidentally kills >10 NATO nationals) will not be sufficient to trigger a positive resolution. \n\n2. If the attacks result in the deaths of the attackers, such as in a suicide bombing, those deaths will *not* count towards the resolution criteria, even if the attackers are citizens of a NATO nation. \n\n3. What counts as a \"terrorist organization\" will be determined by the US federal government, NATO, or the European Union. \n\n4. In the event that NATO ceases to exist by the resolution date, the question will resolve negatively if no such attack occurs prior to NATO's dissolution.\n\n5. Any terrorist attacks that occur while the Taliban are not in control of Afghanistan will not trigger a positive resolution. The Taliban will be considered in control of Afghanistan if they control either Kabul or a majority (18+ / 34) [provincial capitals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_Afghanistan).\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7819, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763640563.088262, "end_time": 1764900929.616791, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763640563.088262, "end_time": 1764900929.616791, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.38787287068875675 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5677287129723786, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 1.1326137804142515, 0.0, 1.5720483064962987, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.2748574657272404, 0.41197927042431465, 0.160831023763914, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287955.482397, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287955.482397, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7380199815978596, 0.2619800184021404 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 149, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "By August 2021, most of Afghanistan has fallen under the control of the Taliban, including the capital of Kabul on August 15. The last time the Taliban controlled Afghanistan, it was the location of [Al Qaeda training bases and leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_for_the_September_11_attacks) that led to the 9/11 attacks on the United States and the subsequent invasion of Afghanistan by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, there is [increased concern](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-08-15/concerns-over-us-terror-threats-rising-as-taliban-seizes-power-in-afghanistan) that it will be used as a base for terrorist attacks." }, { "id": 7818, "title": "Will Spain recognize Catalonia by 2070?", "short_title": "Spanish recognition of Catalonia", "url_title": "Spanish recognition of Catalonia", "slug": "spanish-recognition-of-catalonia", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-23T23:58:21.427239Z", "published_at": "2022-07-08T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T06:27:11.763253Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-08T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-07-08T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7818, "title": "Will Spain recognize Catalonia by 2070?", "created_at": "2021-08-23T23:58:21.427239Z", "open_time": "2022-07-08T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-10T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-10T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/) asked if Catalonia would become independent by 2022. [Catalonia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalonia) is a northeastern region of Spain. The [Catalan nationalist movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_nationalism) is prominent in Catalonia, and Catalans [voted ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Catalan_independence_referendum) for [independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence_movement) in 2017.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if at least five credible media outlets report that [Catalonia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalonia) or a sovereign state controlling more than 50% of the *current area* of Catalonia is legally recognized as a sovereign state by [Spain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain) or another country controlling more than 50% of the *current area* of Spain before January 1, 2070. Otherwise this resolves as **No**. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, the *current area* of Catalonia and of Spain is defined as the area of these regions on July 1, 2022.", "fine_print": "Note that certain scenarios where either Spain or Catalonia or both are invaded successfully by other states, become incorporated into other states, or break up into smaller states may result in this question resolving as **Yes**. Admins may use their judgement to resolve the question as they see fit, or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**. A country or sovereign state that takes control of both Spain and Catalonia and recognizes itself does not qualify.", "post_id": 7818, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762151221.19425, "end_time": 1792445631.482, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762151221.19425, "end_time": 1792445631.482, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11711383384199515 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.232151572061248, 1.5785431258478608, 0.5999365631597889, 0.2925703873652975, 0.8516767856836172, 1.2162820999541282, 0.0, 0.27144266175998527, 0.08543252822519284, 0.10224333355391588, 3.5247126258427124, 0.0, 0.5836073166505451, 0.06449926113694789, 0.0, 0.18017131223755667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4205524304686736, 0.555001365518943, 0.9412022300106095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011411287086953303, 0.0, 0.07583909416180627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8719665948136555, 0.0, 0.028965528090680637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7250745315089938, 0.0, 0.009846599194668917, 0.0, 0.008438284300033617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009709321843095519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002018898677062105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13249979905882817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01314514673938087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288508.540732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288508.540732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.93999118440138, 0.060008815598620015 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 184, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/) asked if Catalonia would become independent by 2022. [Catalonia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalonia) is a northeastern region of Spain. The [Catalan nationalist movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_nationalism) is prominent in Catalonia, and Catalans [voted ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Catalan_independence_referendum) for [independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence_movement) in 2017." }, { "id": 7816, "title": "Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?", "short_title": "Prototype of Tesla Bot before 2023", "url_title": "Prototype of Tesla Bot before 2023", "slug": "prototype-of-tesla-bot-before-2023", "author_id": 118844, "author_username": "moscars", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-23T22:50:24.100690Z", "published_at": "2021-10-02T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.741698Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-02T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-10-01T01:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-01T01:15:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-02T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 151, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T17:58:47.739066Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T17:58:47.739066Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7816, "title": "Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-08-23T22:50:24.100690Z", "open_time": "2021-10-02T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-04T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-01T01:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-10-01T01:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-10-01T01:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's [AI Day](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M&t=359s) event, [Tesla](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) CEO [Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) revealed a design concept of Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot.\n\nDuring the event, Musk said, \"We think that we will probably have a prototype sometime next year\".\n\nAccording to [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/19/22633514/tesla-robot-prototype-elon-musk-humanoid-ai-day?utm_campaign=theverge&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter),\n\n> Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype “sometime next year.” The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla’s experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company’s Autopilot driver assistance software.\n\n> Musk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is “intended to be friendly,” but that Tesla is designing the robot at a “mechanical level” so that “you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it.” It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face.\n\n> The robots will be designed to handle “tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring,” the company’s website reads. “I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can,” Musk said.\n\nPredict the date of general availability in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7791/tesla-bot-us-general-availability-date/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if both of these criteria are fulfilled:\n\n1. Before 2023, a prototype of a humanoid robot developed by Tesla is revealed in at least one of the following:\n\n * A social media post by an account officially held by Tesla, Inc.\n\n * The official website of Tesla, Inc.\n\n * A live event organized by Tesla, Inc.\n\n * Some other event organized by Tesla, Inc where members of the public or press are invited.\n\n * A social media post by an account held by current Tesla CEO Elon Musk.\n\n2. The revealed prototype shall be able to move, and this ability must be shown during the event or in the revealed material. \n\nFor the purpose of this question \"a prototype of a humanoid robot\" is defined as a machine that contains at least the legs of a humanoid and/or the arms of a humanoid. The resolution criteria are indifferent toward the power source, computer and autonomy level (e.g it does not have to run on battery power, the computer may be \"outside\" the robot and a human may (electronically) control the movement of the robot).\n\nA written or photo update on Tesla Bot in the absence of an event, will not count toward a positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7816, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1664639234.377837, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1664639234.377837, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.917413698276853 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.009814260577214984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035358438395972496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019746206142193698, 0.0, 0.07819093846516191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005344199999085414, 0.1802885118344989, 0.0017197951687700553, 0.0, 0.001864120185228701, 0.058294948866837365, 5.097308676200543e-05, 0.0003166137025467285, 0.0002516872282607583, 0.0064646841542327586, 0.016441581349857376, 0.0073416550341739275, 0.005248283559615201, 0.11456185639418817, 0.0, 0.005290705048382245, 0.0012321284089031497, 0.05399087445021162, 0.0, 0.0015849513663041166, 0.00800169724045054, 0.0, 0.035910101112652734, 0.007910275743799046, 0.0006530795175512224, 0.2227529301844079, 0.12436716720732008, 0.0, 0.003966131525619066, 0.0, 0.03322422746718275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08373581757368403, 0.013790810217612129, 0.15791421396888589, 0.0, 0.031645481477201434, 0.030974873110016437, 0.0, 0.15129335067407113, 0.0, 0.16428397538026132, 0.0, 9.970055684701335e-05, 0.15037892896870547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023596938622752286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14270740812259497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18962302371299092, 0.353511522881649, 0.0, 0.04523053106697085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052417906423289085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23307558179284799, 0.05025867691761175, 0.0, 0.3097011760761709, 0.595428886452801, 0.3306308946358807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10706341621729439, 0.0, 0.8876619964222904, 0.9230568182379639, 0.0, 0.09245136827932914, 0.0, 0.17046380131109673, 0.9378580875819027, 0.0, 0.0, 16.37001060560919 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.817526220500223, "coverage": 0.7973347036553681, "baseline_score": -58.23237027731803, "spot_peer_score": -19.53830707381181, "peer_archived_score": 17.817526220500223, "baseline_archived_score": -58.23237027731803, "spot_peer_archived_score": -19.53830707381181 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1664524408.710882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1664524408.710882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3226650932456441, 0.6773349067543559 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 387, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's [AI Day](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M&t=359s) event, [Tesla](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) CEO [Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) revealed a design concept of Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot.\n\nDuring the event, Musk said, \"We think that we will probably have a prototype sometime next year\".\n\nAccording to [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/19/22633514/tesla-robot-prototype-elon-musk-humanoid-ai-day?utm_campaign=theverge&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter),\n\n> Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype “sometime next year.” The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla’s experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company’s Autopilot driver assistance software.\n\n> Musk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is “intended to be friendly,” but that Tesla is designing the robot at a “mechanical level” so that “you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it.” It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face.\n\n> The robots will be designed to handle “tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring,” the company’s website reads. “I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can,” Musk said.\n\nPredict the date of general availability in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7791/tesla-bot-us-general-availability-date/)." }, { "id": 7814, "title": "Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?", "short_title": "AI incident causes $1bn damage before 2032", "url_title": "AI incident causes $1bn damage before 2032", "slug": "ai-incident-causes-1bn-damage-before-2032", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-23T14:56:27.423531Z", "published_at": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:12:34.495857Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 141, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7814, "title": "Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?", "created_at": "2021-08-23T14:56:27.423531Z", "open_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-27T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-27T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Risks from Artificial intelligence](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/) are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilisation in the coming centuries.\n\nIn Toby Ord's recent book [The Precipice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Precipice:_Existential_Risk_and_the_Future_of_Humanity) he places the risk of human extinction due to unaligned AI this century at 10%.\n\nThis question asks if we will see large scale incidents leading to loss of life or damage as a result of AI developments going wrong in the next ten years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2032, there are three credible media reports indicating that there has been one or more events precipitated by AI malfunction which caused either 100+ deaths or $1bn 2021 USD in economic damage.\n\nMultiple incidents stemming from the same source can count for the question to resolve as **Yes**. To be considered from the same source the incidents must be attributable to a specific flaw or version of an AI. For example, deaths from a [prior major version](https://techcrunch.com/2016/09/11/tesla-autopilot-8-0-uses-radar-to-prevent-accidents-like-the-fatal-model-s-crash/) of Tesla’s self-driving car software would not be summed with deaths attributable to later versions.\n\nTo count as *precipitated by AI malfunction* an incident should involve an AI system behaving unexpectedly. An example could be if an AI system autonomously driving cars caused hundreds of deaths which would have been easily avoidable for human drivers, or if an AI system overseeing a hospital system took actions to cause patient deaths as a result of misinterpreting a goal to minimise bed usage.\n\nTo be considered easily avoidable an incident must not involve human negligence. For example, if a human is expected to monitor the AI and promptly intervene, a failure to intervene resulting in death or economic damage would not be considered attributable to an AI malfunction unless the AI malfunction was such that a human could not reasonably be expected to prevent it. If, for example, the [Boeing MCAS system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maneuvering_Characteristics_Augmentation_System) had been an AI system and there was no possibility for the pilots to override its decision to lower the aeroplane nose, leading to a fatal crash, this would count for resolution.\n\nDeaths or damage caused by an AI's expected and intended behavior will not be included; for example, AIs used to target enemy combatants in war would be excluded, as well as AIs successfully performing a medical treatment as specified, despite the treatment causing harms that the doctors or designers were unaware of. An unexpected malfunction of an AI system used in war leading to collateral damage would qualify for the question to resolve as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "A system should be considered AI if it is widely considered to be AI (e.g. by the credible media reports resolving the question). If this is not sufficiently clear for resolution, then as a secondary criterion, any system using machine learning techniques which has an agentic role in the disaster in question should count for this question.\n\nEconomic damage will be considered to be expenses incurred by damage to physical or technological systems or by obstruction of productive output. For example, causing a power outage which leads to economic loss from affected businesses would count, while losing money in an AI-directed investment portfolio would not.\n\nThis question will resolve according to Metaculus' sole discretion.\n\nThe resolution criteria of this question were updated on May 2, 2023. See [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7814/ai-incident-causes-1bn-damage-before-2032/#comment-122162) for more details.", "post_id": 7814, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763197943.743233, "end_time": 1764663089.830954, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763197943.743233, "end_time": 1764663089.830954, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6837269179102891 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.30235160596195004, 0.17810365344980342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33596314969335567, 0.0003407387505689599, 0.5064794940661447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008897281981029862, 0.2832750848065104, 6.571746667824727e-05, 0.0013199706034642909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5882278686878067, 0.0, 0.0, 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"score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288637.570435, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288637.570435, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30697097613135305, 0.693029023868647 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 347, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Risks from Artificial intelligence](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/) are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilisation in the coming centuries.\n\nIn Toby Ord's recent book [The Precipice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Precipice:_Existential_Risk_and_the_Future_of_Humanity) he places the risk of human extinction due to unaligned AI this century at 10%.\n\nThis question asks if we will see large scale incidents leading to loss of life or damage as a result of AI developments going wrong in the next ten years." }, { "id": 7812, "title": "If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?", "short_title": "Taiwan Receives Support in China Conflict", "url_title": "Taiwan Receives Support in China Conflict", "slug": "taiwan-receives-support-in-china-conflict", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-23T13:34:16.038414Z", "published_at": "2021-09-16T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:10:13.849631Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-16T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-09-16T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 182, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T13:26:37.997366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T13:26:37.997366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7812, "title": "If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?", "created_at": "2021-08-23T13:34:16.038414Z", "open_time": "2021-09-16T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-09-18T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-09-18T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.\n\nConditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK, Canada, Germany, or the European Union have attempted a military strike on any Chinese forces in support of Taiwan?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if (i) [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively and (ii) There are at least three credible news reports of at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of any of the above listed nations and the People's Republic of China, which is reported as having being carried out in support of Taiwan or in retaliation to the PRC's actions regarding Taiwan. Military strikes targeting Chinese civilian targets would also count.\n\n'Weapon fire' here should not be taken to include 'warning shots' or similar, but only instances where there was a perceived intent to cause harm to opposition forces or military capabilities, as per the news reports used to resolve the question.\n\nMilitary support on Taiwan's behalf should occur within one year from the date [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively as. This question will also retroactively close to a week before the [other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7812, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763330927.447748, "end_time": 1770797791.869786, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763330927.447748, "end_time": 1770797791.869786, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6657355388637772 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0004850079083948813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006416771885515147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00876056208228726, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.4142633465826742, 0.2957774183378493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6253352173231118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009115429460645242, 0.0, 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2050.\n\nConditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK, Canada, Germany, or the European Union have attempted a military strike on any Chinese forces in support of Taiwan?" }, { "id": 7808, "title": "Will Iran recognize Israel before 2070?", "short_title": "Iran Recognizes Israel before 2070", "url_title": "Iran Recognizes Israel before 2070", "slug": "iran-recognizes-israel-before-2070", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-22T22:20:07.721428Z", "published_at": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:18:05.366099Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, 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"description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7808, "title": "Will Iran recognize Israel before 2070?", "created_at": "2021-08-22T22:20:07.721428Z", "open_time": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-01T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) does not recognize [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel), and a [proxy conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conflict) between them has continued for decades. Iranian leaders have called Israel the \"Zionist regime\", \"occupied Palestine\", and the \"little Satan\", while they refer to the United States as the \"great Satan\". Before the [Iranian Revolution of 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution), Iran and Israel [maintained close ties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Israeli_independence_to_Iranian_revolution_(1947%E2%80%9379)).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [State of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) is formally recognized by the government of [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2070.", "fine_print": "The recognition can be done by the Islamic Republic of Iran or by any state that has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the Islamic Republic of Iran.", "post_id": 7808, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762859875.214967, "end_time": 1764360763.333408, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762859875.214967, "end_time": 1764360763.333408, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.569330957919566 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2022157807035323, 0.0, 0.27073254535969177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10819054156401371, 0.2906730883457752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4184717073029392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0771455627522319, 0.0, 0.11739512936746152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.713094261904665, 0.12724691537418747, 0.0, 0.1377839304008241, 0.07066749202653273, 0.021612403177388988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027899889748614973, 0.0331191247199604, 1.2754948426034802, 0.0, 0.6911696789431041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04045340951854798, 0.0, 0.21777477775732307, 0.011871193631835357, 0.09225092246162084, 0.42402614987748544, 0.7401042132976038, 0.5657935625315949, 0.0, 0.6448241449276935, 0.8465924241875415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4720297435171545, 0.9413760306912168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19669846423162848, 0.38360011561871216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03663966570762298, 0.006805670804060742, 0.5350055731436427, 0.0, 0.012845775168453064, 0.49239689667082, 0.0, 0.05904837310470422, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0477104536846173, 0.0, 0.003479479546953281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5708338054187606, 0.05385505242225807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7832008404886415, 0.0, 0.3564416411906576 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289073.14666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289073.14666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6277790937230346, 0.37222090627696536 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 219, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) does not recognize [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel), and a [proxy conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conflict) between them has continued for decades. Iranian leaders have called Israel the \"Zionist regime\", \"occupied Palestine\", and the \"little Satan\", while they refer to the United States as the \"great Satan\". Before the [Iranian Revolution of 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution), Iran and Israel [maintained close ties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Israeli_independence_to_Iranian_revolution_(1947%E2%80%9379))." }, { "id": 7807, "title": "Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?", "short_title": "Civil war in >30 median age country", "url_title": "Civil war in >30 median age country", "slug": "civil-war-in-30-median-age-country", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-22T16:39:35.182268Z", "published_at": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T12:22:13.229140Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7807, "title": "Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?", "created_at": "2021-08-22T16:39:35.182268Z", "open_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T19:20:29.295959Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T19:20:29.295959Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2069-12-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7803/civil-war-in-current-30-median-age-country/)\n* [Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/)\n\n----\n\nThere is a large variation in [the median age of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age). Some [have](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/population-age-structure-and-its-relation-to-civil-conflict-graphic-metric) [suggested](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) that a youth bulge makes civil war more likely. Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have median ages at most 30 and experienced civil wars recently, as does virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa which has experienced civil wars. Sri Lanka's median age passed 30 right around the time the [Sri Lankan Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_Civil_War) ended. Younger populations [are associated](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) with an increased risk of civil war.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if before 2070, at least two of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, the Guardian, and the Spectator indicate that a civil war begins in a country that has a median age is 30.1 or above according to the most recent figures from before the beginning of the civil war from figures from both the [CIA World Factbook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#CIA_figures) and the [United Nations.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#UN_figures", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7807, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758355696.217678, "end_time": 1789096451.576, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758355696.217678, "end_time": 1789096451.576, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.8592299381958975 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003409649605783329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005571844212246495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1441958114546953, 0.1572066883677779, 0.2745194903098873, 0.005344667174111027, 0.24261979922693655, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1331813514528788, 0.01664019852550669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.537666365322664, 0.09190893594621116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4070514190678404, 1.6364728545998994, 0.5829130073283081, 0.9482139876499461, 0.0, 0.35718509775740287, 2.5745998999619637, 0.5205001006138759, 0.0, 0.543308524129585, 0.0, 1.6695598826777962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12082870651021416, 0.8953925910351344 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287831.103453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287831.103453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2046362216626535, 0.7953637783373465 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 170, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7803/civil-war-in-current-30-median-age-country/)\n* [Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/)\n\n----\n\nThere is a large variation in [the median age of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age). Some [have](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/population-age-structure-and-its-relation-to-civil-conflict-graphic-metric) [suggested](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) that a youth bulge makes civil war more likely. Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have median ages at most 30 and experienced civil wars recently, as does virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa which has experienced civil wars. Sri Lanka's median age passed 30 right around the time the [Sri Lankan Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_Civil_War) ended. Younger populations [are associated](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) with an increased risk of civil war." }, { "id": 7803, "title": "Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2022, had a median age above 30?", "short_title": "Civil War in Country with 2020 Median Age >30", "url_title": "Civil War in Country with 2020 Median Age >30", "slug": "civil-war-in-country-with-2020-median-age-30", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-22T04:34:53.255969Z", "published_at": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T03:14:58.548181Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7803, "title": "Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2022, had a median age above 30?", "created_at": "2021-08-22T04:34:53.255969Z", "open_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-20T18:29:33.370257Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-20T18:29:33.370257Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7807/civil-war-in-30-median-age-country/)\n* [Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/)\n\n----\n\nThere is a large variation in [the median age of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age). Some [have](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/population-age-structure-and-its-relation-to-civil-conflict-graphic-metric) [suggested](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) that a youth bulge makes civil war more likely. Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have median ages at most 30 and experienced civil wars recently, as does virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa which has experienced civil wars. Sri Lanka's median age passed 30 right around the time the [Sri Lankan Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_Civil_War) ended. Younger populations [are associated](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) with an increased risk of civil war.\n\n***Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2070, at least two of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, the Guardian, and the Spectator indicate that a civil war begins in a country that has a median age is 30.1 or above according to the 2020 figures from both the [CIA World Factbook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#CIA_figures) and the [United Nations.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#UN_figures). A copy of this data is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y8K0IhRh_1ZVvy4mFxyhEJ7GX7FyrDqxRNkeRcLqFIg/edit?usp=sharing).\n\nIn the case of political or territorial changes of any nation on the list, the successor country will be identified as having the same political capitol as the parent country.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7803, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758891369.907676, "end_time": 1765859151.648059, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758891369.907676, "end_time": 1765859151.648059, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.8374502774660131 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.25591422526971735, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.6447747757508819, 0.0, 0.18902913696846005, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6164143226274226, 2.005024498328624, 0.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.8423858322996396, 0.5897509340037478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.348573984583807 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289773.485207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289773.485207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21626757484310166, 0.7837324251568983 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 164, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 7798, "title": "Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?", "short_title": "Tom Tugendhat Top Tory before 2030?", "url_title": "Tom Tugendhat Top Tory before 2030?", "slug": "tom-tugendhat-top-tory-before-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-21T21:59:51.162953Z", "published_at": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T06:05:58.871752Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7798, "title": "Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-08-21T21:59:51.162953Z", "open_time": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-01T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Thomas Georg John Tugendhat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Tugendhat) MBE VR (born 27 June 1973) is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee since 2017. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for the ultra-safe Tory seat of Tonbridge and Malling since 2015. Before entering politics, amongst other roles, Tugendhat was a Territorial Army officer in the British Army.\n\nIn the wake of the Fall of Kabul in August 2021, Tugendhat described the event in The Times as Britain's \"biggest foreign policy disaster since Suez\". On 18 August, in the House of Commons, Tugendhat was applauded after giving a powerful speech that drew on his own military experiences in Afghanistan. It concluded, \"This doesn't need to be defeat, but right now it damn well feels like it.\"\n\nThere have subsequently been [suggestions](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9915201/Of-course-want-leadership-position-Tom-Tugendhat-speaks-Europes-new-refugee-line.html) that Tugendhat may well become the leader of the UK's Conservative Party, and ultimately become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Tom Tugendhat holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party at any time before January 1, 2030. Acting leaderships do not count; he must formally be the leader of the party for a positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7798, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763532347.818173, "end_time": 1764820800.253983, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763532347.818173, "end_time": 1764820800.253983, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.12883826222687714 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.41045356132458793, 0.0, 0.048426974058352196, 0.0, 2.4901612246778697, 0.0, 0.6521606164920509, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 0.009723111673611546, 0.0, 2.760276547548302, 0.5766688751576644, 0.0, 2.273776961445237, 0.10286368260463565, 0.5308639099448593, 0.05548779491047209, 0.47701027583677513, 0.23487120312145018, 0.0, 0.159228013413647, 0.19529391852860173, 0.0, 0.47007230615297063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03627506129959581, 0.0, 0.003576932888935743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2521159139260162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00743766165558475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022263149504593318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287709.405471, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287709.405471, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8940629454453642, 0.10593705455463576 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 292, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Thomas Georg John Tugendhat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Tugendhat) MBE VR (born 27 June 1973) is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee since 2017. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for the ultra-safe Tory seat of Tonbridge and Malling since 2015. Before entering politics, amongst other roles, Tugendhat was a Territorial Army officer in the British Army.\n\nIn the wake of the Fall of Kabul in August 2021, Tugendhat described the event in The Times as Britain's \"biggest foreign policy disaster since Suez\". On 18 August, in the House of Commons, Tugendhat was applauded after giving a powerful speech that drew on his own military experiences in Afghanistan. It concluded, \"This doesn't need to be defeat, but right now it damn well feels like it.\"\n\nThere have subsequently been [suggestions](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9915201/Of-course-want-leadership-position-Tom-Tugendhat-speaks-Europes-new-refugee-line.html) that Tugendhat may well become the leader of the UK's Conservative Party, and ultimately become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom." }, { "id": 7795, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "short_title": "Nanotechnology GC to cause (near) extinction", "url_title": "Nanotechnology GC to cause (near) extinction", "slug": "nanotechnology-gc-to-cause-near-extinction", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-21T12:08:37.828860Z", "published_at": "2021-08-21T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T00:16:32.748614Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-21T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2124-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-08-21T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:55:08.533483Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:55:08.533483Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7795, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "created_at": "2021-08-21T12:08:37.828860Z", "open_time": "2021-08-21T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-23T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2124-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nIn 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\n\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \n\n> In a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \n\n> Plants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\n\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\n\nA [recent paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3170350) evaluates the opportunities and risks of atomically precise manufacturing argues that the risks might be greatest from military affairs, and specifically rogue actor violence:\n\n> A more significant concern for military APM comes from the potential dangers of rogue actors, including rogue states such as DPRK as well as terrorist groups and other nonstate actors. Over the last two decades, rogue actors have been an increasingly prominent concern for the international community. Looking ahead, some worry that advances in certain technologies, especially biotechnology, could enable rogue actors to cause outsized harm, potentially even a major global catastrophe (e.g., Rees, 2003). APM could also enable a wider range of rogue actors to create powerful arsenals. APM could further make these arsenals smaller and thus easier to conceal. In this regard, APM could be considered similar to biotechnology. This makes for a major risk: a world in which small rogue groups can cause global harm is a fragile world to live in.\n\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".", "resolution_criteria": "In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) Now it is asked,\n\n**Given that nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?**\n\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nanotechnology catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves *positively* if such a catastrophe does occur, **and** the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. \n\nThe question resolves negative if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) the post-catastrophe population remains above 5% of the pre-catastrophe population over the subsequent 25 years.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7795, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762128982.190688, "end_time": 1789310238.68, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762128982.190688, "end_time": 1789310238.68, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.47232584661542953 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3014543863285435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15879868897243984, 0.055522266795466554, 0.033422335042386925, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2031366150395977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014128607803813408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026333607703857825, 0.0, 0.4882802860014354, 0.002758391723504557, 0.0, 0.015663757846189213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004297018526623552, 0.0, 0.29511195479227853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04331287452455614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2530319812175794, 0.3704164410767862, 0.11083301965526829, 0.9181777685935044, 0.0, 0.5021859182392427, 0.07029809164987123, 0.0887319228627799, 1.0128218633829973, 0.5960402876157428, 0.0, 0.7554658117724923, 0.7669963405141265, 0.8073175090696889, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027927048958696774, 0.0, 0.2647561248553594, 0.09958252890872901, 0.1941378799360505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6564829504304351, 0.7134897192591153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5277722589072464, 0.07049165811994734, 0.0037302369458043724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18638004444151735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.9625907886409224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.555435737694663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3980205286690489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06018168915842613 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287963.835004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287963.835004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6106309888728431, 0.38936901112715694 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 217, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nIn 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\n\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \n\n> In a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \n\n> Plants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\n\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\n\nA [recent paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3170350) evaluates the opportunities and risks of atomically precise manufacturing argues that the risks might be greatest from military affairs, and specifically rogue actor violence:\n\n> A more significant concern for military APM comes from the potential dangers of rogue actors, including rogue states such as DPRK as well as terrorist groups and other nonstate actors. Over the last two decades, rogue actors have been an increasingly prominent concern for the international community. Looking ahead, some worry that advances in certain technologies, especially biotechnology, could enable rogue actors to cause outsized harm, potentially even a major global catastrophe (e.g., Rees, 2003). APM could also enable a wider range of rogue actors to create powerful arsenals. APM could further make these arsenals smaller and thus easier to conceal. In this regard, APM could be considered similar to biotechnology. This makes for a major risk: a world in which small rogue groups can cause global harm is a fragile world to live in.\n\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\"." }, { "id": 7792, "title": "Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?", "short_title": "100 Deaths in China/Taiwan Conflict by 2026", "url_title": "100 Deaths in China/Taiwan Conflict by 2026", "slug": "100-deaths-in-chinataiwan-conflict-by-2026", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-20T15:58:13.794857Z", "published_at": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T00:10:33.250088Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 260, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T13:26:37.997366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T13:26:37.997366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7792, "title": "Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?", "created_at": "2021-08-20T15:58:13.794857Z", "open_time": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-24T12:57:33.253000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-24T12:57:33.253000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the [Republic of China (Taiwan)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news [recently claimed](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386) that the threat of China invading Taiwan is \"growing every day\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2026, either of the following occur:\n\n* There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n* There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by multiple years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise.\n\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7792, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763338222.516831, "end_time": 1763800327.036519, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763338222.516831, "end_time": 1763800327.036519, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.09565848719574438 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.711103407991562, 3.661980917829884, 0.4065426026448776, 0.11668485238078108, 0.11660967293490604, 1.436938386798529, 0.416774919664735, 0.056472832954499924, 0.058300578801469743, 0.0700605695067488, 0.10338673119504065, 0.0008798480225827365, 0.9584076458710641, 0.03811390609209628, 0.0, 0.9541226689627033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015319093631962664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008907929426231849, 0.020785831404753825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11815224445332724, 0.0002751926865799895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007480512792552108, 0.0, 0.0005249079121844207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7052653067079825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032853104142864374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9061648019957719 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289878.717857, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 219, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289878.717857, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 219, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9867415840783851, 0.013258415921614877 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 36, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 747, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the [Republic of China (Taiwan)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news [recently claimed](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386) that the threat of China invading Taiwan is \"growing every day\"." }, { "id": 7790, "title": "Will New York City experience a hurricane before 2030?", "short_title": "NYC Hurricane by 2030", "url_title": "NYC Hurricane by 2030", "slug": "nyc-hurricane-by-2030", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-20T02:50:19.444729Z", "published_at": "2021-12-07T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T00:43:43.990732Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-07T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-12-07T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7790, "title": "Will New York City experience a hurricane before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-08-20T02:50:19.444729Z", "open_time": "2021-12-07T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-09T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[New York](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_York_hurricanes) and [New Jersey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Jersey_hurricanes) are vulnerable to hurricanes. New York City was affected by [The 1938 New England Hurricane](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane#New_York_City_and_western_Long_Island), and more recently by [Hurricane Sandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy), among others.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if before 2030, credible media reports indicate that there have been [sustained hurricane-force winds of at least 33 meters per second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) for one minute at 10m above the surface of some point within the city limits of New York City", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763448481.105293, "end_time": 1765224651.847167, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.618 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763448481.105293, "end_time": 1765224651.847167, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.618 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.382, 0.618 ], "means": [ 0.6022623630317405 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37068749199850365, 0.05144413896398135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0, 0.0014303523946117215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0105689540850258, 0.4994839393471079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8749085186757798, 0.0, 0.8176137788112516, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.1792663589359841, 0.0, 0.04113337300434987, 0.013825989117070985, 0.0029741897568960904, 1.1964908679617894, 0.0, 0.0780945946412779, 0.002164380995132114, 0.0, 1.0326174967577095, 0.0, 0.328518954181526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7246829113760735, 0.9078688084495876, 0.7635897992428782, 0.08622329263095156, 0.13778371961094252, 0.24617819204392694, 0.31768015703601027, 0.014505757420011789, 0.0, 1.2017766029655172, 0.6304820837056659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1479276368064977, 0.0, 0.5770453408276514, 0.46416998254747094, 0.0, 0.03249305809127576, 0.06367247509170942, 0.0, 0.07059083564021496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2502185777012937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16442976034727774, 0.1147878510099504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16998735005935756 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289277.311686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289277.311686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.42074424317289705, 0.579255756827103 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 202, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[New York](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_York_hurricanes) and [New Jersey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Jersey_hurricanes) are vulnerable to hurricanes. New York City was affected by [The 1938 New England Hurricane](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane#New_York_City_and_western_Long_Island), and more recently by [Hurricane Sandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy), among others." }, { "id": 7786, "title": "Will armed conflicts between India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "short_title": "100 Deaths in India-Pakistan Conflict by 2050", "url_title": "100 Deaths in India-Pakistan Conflict by 2050", "slug": "100-deaths-in-india-pakistan-conflict-by-2050", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-19T16:01:25.630576Z", "published_at": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T04:17:45.249195Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", 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Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7786, "title": "Will armed conflicts between India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "created_at": "2021-08-19T16:01:25.630576Z", "open_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-01T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since [partition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India), [India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India) and [Pakistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan) have had a [tense relationship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and [many conflicts.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts) In 1999, India and Pakistan fought the [Kargil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2050, either of the following occur:\n\n* There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n* There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise.\n\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7786, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763612254.964464, "end_time": 1764087043.805537, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763612254.964464, "end_time": 1764087043.805537, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9338404712612351 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 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conflicts.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts) In 1999, India and Pakistan fought the [Kargil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War)." }, { "id": 7784, "title": "Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?", "short_title": "Egypt-Ethiopia Water War before 2024", "url_title": "Egypt-Ethiopia Water War before 2024", "slug": "egypt-ethiopia-water-war-before-2024", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-19T14:42:19.198026Z", "published_at": "2021-08-28T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.436004Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-28T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z", "open_time": 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"2021-08-19T14:42:19.198026Z", "open_time": "2021-08-28T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-30T19:18:14.164807Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-30T19:18:14.164807Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam) is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs.\n\nEgypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are concerned that the dam will reduce downstream flow.\n\nThere have been reports of Egypt planning an attack on the dam:\n\n* [WikiLeaks published documents suggesting that Egypt were planning on bombing the GERD](http://www.meleszenawi.com/wikileaks-egypt-was-planning-to-bomb-the-ethiopian-grand-renaissance-dam-using-sudan-as-a-launchpad/)\n\n* [The Egyptian Cabinet discussed attacking Ethiopia over the dam](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cabinet-advises-morsi-attack-ethiopia-2013-6)", "resolution_criteria": "A clear attempt by Egyptian forces (or forces linked to Egypt in media reports) to attack the GERD. Specific examples of attempts which would resolve this question positive:\n\n* A bombing attack on the dam\n* Special Forces or infantry units attempt to damage the dam\n\nSuccess of such actions is not required for this question to resolve positive, but the public must find out", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7784, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965479.11116, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965479.11116, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0352560387944695 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.900637638213366, 5.175233843129005, 1.3013982959640686, 0.22205743285900253, 0.23954639433616837, 0.1592171022412034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1073881054056872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011600507024289436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.35866053761172556, 0.051651386754525144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15957765746257213, 0.0, 0.09850035746144059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010070387089084703, 0.17276733681850182, 0.0, 0.06703402127545338, 0.0, 0.1097200042361546, 0.17592413500841017, 0.0, 0.15993279755121684, 0.0, 0.04678195401930797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049297474725404994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03081720770343554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.0, 0.013291901200468375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0063312489975652355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.382797736448614, "coverage": 0.9993427061998365, "baseline_score": 60.32567217770196, "spot_peer_score": 11.182487693789929, "peer_archived_score": 8.382797736448614, "baseline_archived_score": 60.32567217770196, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.182487693789929 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008646.73653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008646.73653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 217, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam) is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs.\n\nEgypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are concerned that the dam will reduce downstream flow.\n\nThere have been reports of Egypt planning an attack on the dam:\n\n* [WikiLeaks published documents suggesting that Egypt were planning on bombing the GERD](http://www.meleszenawi.com/wikileaks-egypt-was-planning-to-bomb-the-ethiopian-grand-renaissance-dam-using-sudan-as-a-launchpad/)\n\n* [The Egyptian Cabinet discussed attacking Ethiopia over the dam](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cabinet-advises-morsi-attack-ethiopia-2013-6)" }, { "id": 7774, "title": "Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?", "short_title": "Sci-Hub adding new articles again in 2021", "url_title": "Sci-Hub adding new articles again in 2021", "slug": "sci-hub-adding-new-articles-again-in-2021", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-18T05:27:57.247424Z", "published_at": "2021-08-20T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.110370Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-20T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-05T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-05T20:59:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-20T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7774, "title": "Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?", "created_at": "2021-08-18T05:27:57.247424Z", "open_time": "2021-08-20T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-22T16:45:56.222965Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-22T16:45:56.222965Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-05T20:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-09-05T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-05T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. ([about the order](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/delhi-hc-asks-libgen-sci-hub-to-stop-uploading-articles-as-they-face-copyright-infringement-charges/story-cRWCB1sGs1yMqR3TCpuvmL.html), [Reddit thread with updates](https://www.reddit.com/r/scihub/comments/lofj0r/announcement_scihub_has_been_paused_no_new/)).\n\nThe hearing has been postponed multiple times and will be now be held on August, 23rd. ([source](https://news.careers360.com/sci-hub-se-founder-alexandra-elbakyan-inyas-delhi-high-court-scientific-journal-wikipedia))", "resolution_criteria": "If new papers will be reported or shown to be uploaded again in the Sci-Hub database before the end of the year, this question will resolve positively.\n\nNew papers being uploaded to a fork or copied version of SciHub is not sufficient for positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7774, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1631002753.677976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1631002753.677976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9673582099737684 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004173285167582051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014830008481343462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012491892736397447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010558829245351904, 0.01744285986675472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5305427105993299, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27389162834287195, 0.0, 0.020354001336032917, 0.0, 0.8096910280571918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19333358002911022, 0.0, 0.35109847196302063, 0.21134819307803016, 0.04031214257072945, 1.5846401153701704, 8.838793445372632 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.6199017451873273, "coverage": 0.11830990380016188, "baseline_score": 2.318050326088253, "spot_peer_score": 18.813589761459145, "peer_archived_score": 0.6199017451873273, "baseline_archived_score": 2.318050326088253, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.813589761459145 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630868317.872354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630868317.872354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.029841315288156367, 0.9701586847118436 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. ([about the order](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/delhi-hc-asks-libgen-sci-hub-to-stop-uploading-articles-as-they-face-copyright-infringement-charges/story-cRWCB1sGs1yMqR3TCpuvmL.html), [Reddit thread with updates](https://www.reddit.com/r/scihub/comments/lofj0r/announcement_scihub_has_been_paused_no_new/)).\n\nThe hearing has been postponed multiple times and will be now be held on August, 23rd. ([source](https://news.careers360.com/sci-hub-se-founder-alexandra-elbakyan-inyas-delhi-high-court-scientific-journal-wikipedia))" }, { "id": 7740, "title": "Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states before 2041?", "short_title": "Marijuana Legalization in Republican States", "url_title": "Marijuana Legalization in Republican States", "slug": "marijuana-legalization-in-republican-states", "author_id": 111828, "author_username": "ThirdEyeOpen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-15T20:47:18.514286Z", "published_at": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:11.730719Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7740, "title": "Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states before 2041?", "created_at": "2021-08-15T20:47:18.514286Z", "open_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-19T03:02:59.406503Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-19T03:02:59.406503Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Marijuana is being legalized in many US states after having been illegal in all states for decades. While the status varies widely from state to state, states that tend to vote for Republican candidates are more likely to have marijuana be completely illegal or legal only for medical (non-recreational) use.\n\nThe following 20 states have voted for Republican presidential candidates in all 4 of the previous presidential elections (from 2008 til 2020), and are the focus of this question:\n\nAK, MT, ID, WY, ND, SD, UT, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, TN, KY, WV, AL, SC\n\nRecreational use is currently only legal in 2 of these states (Alaska and Montana), accounting for 35.6% of the land area of these states (Alaska is very big).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if recreational marijuana use is legal in at least 2/3rds of the land area currently encompassed by the aforementioned states (by any level of governmental action, whether federal or state-level or what may be) at any time (for a period of at least 6 months) between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2041", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7740, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763008637.550844, "end_time": 1767534845.03384, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763008637.550844, "end_time": 1767534845.03384, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8768450333752558 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012034017844787867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010803794281517749, 0.006823873861341829, 0.00406686720801615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7567875495527383, 0.32941610215541206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1202806234103524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005265945357905682, 0.0, 1.563191984301664, 0.044581621487903636, 0.05029793949121536, 0.0, 0.008638428186252201, 0.6860851188409011, 0.16217152921704522, 0.014824796017118348, 0.464021066900576, 0.06701646419570967, 0.4640868588623268, 0.8007238388551874, 0.019954887933908164, 1.2910433215701045, 0.009674152661148447, 3.5864802876027007, 0.9770205095170003, 0.0, 0.36299758779910213, 0.2555168591127752, 2.2324056499627396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4193665533852537 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287702.439339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287702.439339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1082072749262376, 0.8917927250737624 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 220, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Marijuana is being legalized in many US states after having been illegal in all states for decades. While the status varies widely from state to state, states that tend to vote for Republican candidates are more likely to have marijuana be completely illegal or legal only for medical (non-recreational) use.\n\nThe following 20 states have voted for Republican presidential candidates in all 4 of the previous presidential elections (from 2008 til 2020), and are the focus of this question:\n\nAK, MT, ID, WY, ND, SD, UT, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, TN, KY, WV, AL, SC\n\nRecreational use is currently only legal in 2 of these states (Alaska and Montana), accounting for 35.6% of the land area of these states (Alaska is very big)." }, { "id": 7738, "title": "Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?", "short_title": "Twitter Says NYT Misinforms by 2025", "url_title": "Twitter Says NYT Misinforms by 2025", "slug": "twitter-says-nyt-misinforms-by-2025", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-14T03:04:58.218686Z", "published_at": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.866863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:54:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 146, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7738, "title": "Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-08-14T03:04:58.218686Z", "open_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-18T15:53:27.744948Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-18T15:53:27.744948Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T07:57:41.623490Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 30, [Nate Silver](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1421230734686228489) of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) retweeted [Ben Wakana](https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1421182153224818694) of the White House COVID response team. Wakana was critical of a [tweet by the New York Times](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1420972977005412354) that implied that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread the delta variant of COVID-19 as unvaccinated people. Nate Silver suggested that twitter should flag the New York Times tweet for being misinformation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if Twitter flags a tweet by @nytimes as misinformation by 2025. [\"Flagging\"](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/product/2020/updating-our-approach-to-misleading-information) is defined as putting a link in a tweet to some information that contradicts the claims made in the tweet. 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Wakana was critical of a [tweet by the New York Times](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1420972977005412354) that implied that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread the delta variant of COVID-19 as unvaccinated people. Nate Silver suggested that twitter should flag the New York Times tweet for being misinformation." }, { "id": 7737, "title": "Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?", "short_title": "US diplomatic evacuation in Kabul 2021", "url_title": "US diplomatic evacuation in Kabul 2021", "slug": "us-diplomatic-evacuation-in-kabul-2021", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-14T00:03:39.258543Z", "published_at": "2021-08-14T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.222689Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-14T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-30T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-30T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-19T14:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-19T14:21:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-14T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 135, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7737, "title": "Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?", "created_at": "2021-08-14T00:03:39.258543Z", "open_time": "2021-08-14T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-14T21:23:04.605819Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-14T21:23:04.605819Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-19T14:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-19T14:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-09-19T14:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-30T06:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-30T06:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As of 2021-08-13, several nations are [evacuating their diplomats from Kabul, Afghanistan](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-58197706), as Taliban forces take control of territory. There is [precedent](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_Saigon) for less-than-successful [evacuation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis) of US diplomatic staff from dangerous environments.\n\n***Will the US diplomatic evacuation in Kabul be unsuccessful?***\n\nResolves positively if there are credible, mainstream reports of at least 2 US diplomatic staff captured, killed or left behind within 1 week of official announcement that the US has ceased efforts to evacuate diplomatic staff from Kabul. The ceased effort must be part of an overall withdrawal, so an evacuation ceased because the US changes course and decides maintain a diplomatic presence would resolve ambiguous. \n\nFor the purposes of the resolution, Marine security guards count as diplomatic staff. All other US citizens not credibly affiliated with diplomatic efforts, including regular military personnel, do not count. Non-US citizens such as Afghani translators likewise do not count, regardless of degree of involvement with US. \n\nResolves ambiguous if evacuation is credibly still underway or inapplicable at resolve date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7737, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630296904.17052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630296904.17052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11359600040798953 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.780330296716965, 1.8388628720478715, 0.0002309347826558392, 0.70537280207983, 0.7021726869995756, 0.04324426421670503, 0.4789019075839881, 0.41613828439813105, 2.1137080132001094, 5.425937681329494, 0.9341818388303311, 0.6019333195951344, 1.222242628741987, 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Unique Games Conjecture (UGC)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unique_games_conjecture) is a conjecture made by [Nevanlinna Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevanlinna_Prize) winner [Subhash Khot](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subhash_Khot) of NYU in 2002. \nIt states that the Unique Games problem is NP-hard, and is one of the famous open problems in computational complexity theory. It especially has implications in hardness of approximation; for instance, it implies that the problem of approximating [maximum cut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_cut) for graphs by a better constant than given by the Goemans-Williamson algorithm is NP-hard.\n\nAt the 2019-2020 [Tel Aviv Theory Fest](https://sites.google.com/view/tau-theory-fest/home), MIT professor [Elchanan Mossel](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elchanan_Mossel) and NYU professor and Khot [made a bet](https://www.google.com/amp/s/windowsontheory.org/2019/12/30/a-bet-for-the-new-decade/amp/) that a correct proof of UGC will be uploaded to [arXiv](arxiv.org) by 2030. In early 2018, Khot, along with Dor Minzer and Muli Safra, made a [significant advance](https://windowsontheory.org/2018/01/10/unique-games-conjecture-halfway-there/) toward proving UGC in a [paper](https://eccc.weizmann.ac.il/report/2018/006/). Harvard professor [Boaz Barak](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boaz_Barak) agreed to referee the bet.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Boaz Barak writes publicly (on Twitter, a blog, or elsewhere) that Elchanan Mossel has won the bet. It resolves negatively if he announces Subhash Khot has won. If there is no announcement by the resolve date, then it resolves positively if there is a peer reviewed paper that was originally uploaded to the ArXiv in 2030 which is accepted in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference by the resolve date. Else, it resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7736, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735689302.917341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.307 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735689302.917341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.307 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6930000000000001, 0.307 ], "means": [ 0.3732154358544536 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5223904041082511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 1.8707652979616782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6805934235107234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.03777143320256801, 0.10635996762051808, 0.6868051099140947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289785.863626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289785.863626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.844780611963182, 0.15521938803681798 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Unique Games Conjecture (UGC)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unique_games_conjecture) is a conjecture made by [Nevanlinna Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevanlinna_Prize) winner [Subhash Khot](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subhash_Khot) of NYU in 2002. \nIt states that the Unique Games problem is NP-hard, and is one of the famous open problems in computational complexity theory. It especially has implications in hardness of approximation; for instance, it implies that the problem of approximating [maximum cut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_cut) for graphs by a better constant than given by the Goemans-Williamson algorithm is NP-hard.\n\nAt the 2019-2020 [Tel Aviv Theory Fest](https://sites.google.com/view/tau-theory-fest/home), MIT professor [Elchanan Mossel](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elchanan_Mossel) and NYU professor and Khot [made a bet](https://www.google.com/amp/s/windowsontheory.org/2019/12/30/a-bet-for-the-new-decade/amp/) that a correct proof of UGC will be uploaded to [arXiv](arxiv.org) by 2030. In early 2018, Khot, along with Dor Minzer and Muli Safra, made a [significant advance](https://windowsontheory.org/2018/01/10/unique-games-conjecture-halfway-there/) toward proving UGC in a [paper](https://eccc.weizmann.ac.il/report/2018/006/). Harvard professor [Boaz Barak](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boaz_Barak) agreed to referee the bet." }, { "id": 7734, "title": "Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?", "short_title": "Will the last Jew in Afghanistan leave?", "url_title": "Will the last Jew in Afghanistan leave?", "slug": "will-the-last-jew-in-afghanistan-leave", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-13T19:59:20.180028Z", "published_at": "2021-08-15T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.955289Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-15T01:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-17T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-17T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-15T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7734, "title": "Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?", "created_at": "2021-08-13T19:59:20.180028Z", "open_time": "2021-08-15T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-15T14:55:52.416922Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-15T14:55:52.416922Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-17T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-17T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-17T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [the Israel National News](https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/299613) on April 4th, 2021,\n\n> The man who has been known as the last Jew in Afghanistan for well over a decade is leaving for Israel, fearing that the U.S. military’s promise to leave the country will leave a vacuum to be filled with radical groups such as the Taliban.\n\n> “I will watch on TV in Israel to find out what will happen in Afghanistan,” Zabulon Simantov told Arab News on Sunday.\n\n> Simantov, 61, said he will leave after this year’s High Holidays season in the fall.\n\n> His wife, a Jew from Tajikistan, and their two daughters have lived in Israel since 1998. But Simantov has stayed in his native Afghanistan to tend to its lone synagogue, located in the capital Kabul, through decades of violence and political turmoil, including a period of Taliban rule and the country’s war with the U.S.", "resolution_criteria": "Suppose before January 1st, 2023, the Taliban is widely reported to have captured Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, and in particular, the presidential palace. Then, this question resolves positively if Zablon Simintov is reported to be residing in some nation other than Afghanistan. If Simintov is reported to have been en route to another country when the presidential palace is captured, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it reports negatively.\n\nIn the event that the Metaculus admins do not know the whereabouts of Zablon Simintov at the time of Kabul's capture, then the resolution will be pending until this information is known. If the Taliban does not capture Kabul before January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "[edit 2021-08-15] Sylvain added the phrase \"If Simintov is reported to have been en route to another country when the presidential palace is captured, then this question resolves positively. \"", "post_id": 7734, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1629238018.557584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1629238018.557584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.36844924808013246 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8814941668434149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9019935026160223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6525656508175627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5187470996717525, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 1.1098655564437583, 0.0, 0.2743287127404717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04213280279121279, 0.0, 0.7287651222345652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35843923208154005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.0577607910697853, "coverage": 0.05610813180284362, "baseline_score": 0.7625169919701063, "spot_peer_score": 20.869730103789617, "peer_archived_score": 1.0577607910697853, "baseline_archived_score": 0.7625169919701063, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.869730103789617 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1629187418.819665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1629187418.819665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6698611352336443, 0.3301388647663557 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [the Israel National News](https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/299613) on April 4th, 2021,\n\n> The man who has been known as the last Jew in Afghanistan for well over a decade is leaving for Israel, fearing that the U.S. military’s promise to leave the country will leave a vacuum to be filled with radical groups such as the Taliban.\n\n> “I will watch on TV in Israel to find out what will happen in Afghanistan,” Zabulon Simantov told Arab News on Sunday.\n\n> Simantov, 61, said he will leave after this year’s High Holidays season in the fall.\n\n> His wife, a Jew from Tajikistan, and their two daughters have lived in Israel since 1998. But Simantov has stayed in his native Afghanistan to tend to its lone synagogue, located in the capital Kabul, through decades of violence and political turmoil, including a period of Taliban rule and the country’s war with the U.S." } ] }
