Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4760
{ "count": 6394, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4780", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4740", "results": [ { "id": 7722, "title": "Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?", "short_title": "Nuclear Sharing and the TPNW", "url_title": "Nuclear Sharing and the TPNW", "slug": "nuclear-sharing-and-the-tpnw", "author_id": 119050, "author_username": "crule", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-11T20:05:07.955644Z", "published_at": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.941295Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-27T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-27T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7722, "title": "Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?", "created_at": "2021-08-11T20:05:07.955644Z", "open_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-17T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-17T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-27T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-27T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Several U.S. allies participate in [nuclear sharing through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm) According to publicly-available information, these countries are Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. These countries occupy a [special position](https://k1project.columbia.edu/news/caring-about-sharing) in the nuclear world; they are classified as \"non-nuclear\" countries for the purposes of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but they host nuclear weapons on their territory.\n\nThe Federation of American Scientists provides an overview of [U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe](https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Brief2019_EuroNukes_CACNP_.pdf).\n\nThe United States and NATO leadership continue to view this arrangement as crucial to the defense of Europe and the security of the free world, and make this case publicly, as in this recent op-ed in the Frankfurter Allgemeine, \"[Germany’s support for nuclear sharing is vital to protect peace and freedom](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_175663.htm).\"\n\nThis attitude, however, is not necessarily in line with domestic audiences, some of whom have long protested stationing weapons of mass destruction on their purportedly \"non-nuclear\" soil. Germany is a valuable example. Recent polls conducted by the Munich Security conference show that [66% percent of respondents](https://securityconference.org/assets/01_Bilder_Inhalte/03_Medien/02_Publikationen/MSC_Germany_Report_10-2020_Engl.pdf) said they believed Germany should “renounce nuclear deterrence entirely.” Polling by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons similarly shows that [public opinion in EU states opposes nuclear weapons](https://www.icanw.org/polls_public_opinion_in_eu_host_states_firmly_opposes_nuclear_weapons).\n\nPublic opinion has helped to drive the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The treaty is widely understood to be symbolic, especially without the signatures of any nuclear power, but after collecting 50 signatures, the [TPNW entered into force in January 2021](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/#:~:text=The%20Treaty%20entered%20into%20force,approval%2C%20or%20accession%20was%20deposited.). It is \"the first treaty in history that categorically and permanently prohibits for all its parties the testing, possession, transfer, use, or threat of use of nuclear weapons, and that aims for universal participation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-05/legal-and-political-myths-of-the-treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/))\n\nIn the ICAN poll cited above, 68% of polled Germans believed the country should sign the TPNW. These developments, and the German Green Party's traditional opposition to all things nuclear, have led to an examination of [the future of nuclear sharing given the upcoming German election](https://www.brookings.edu/research/germanys-upcoming-election-and-the-future-of-nuclear-sharing/). \n\nSignature of the TPNW by any current nuclear-sharing state would likely significantly alter NATO deterrence policy, and would indicate a crack in the alliance. Thus, even if the TPNW has no \"teeth,\" as critics point out, the outcome of this question has significant consequences for the future of transatlantic security environment.\n\nThis question asks whether any NATO member state currently hosting U.S. nuclear weapons will sign on to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 11:59pm on 31 December 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve if any NATO member state hosting U.S. nuclear weapons as part of a \"nuclear sharing\" agreement as of 11 August 2021 signs on to the TPNW before the end of 2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7722, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643232765.323673, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643232765.323673, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12317870237139128 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.012491892736397447, 0.006908280092399992, 0.08655251489631513, 1.3217162808369398, 0.7517848555857656, 0.6047751043366363, 0.6010944335474357, 0.17589654262823662, 0.12098568606878847, 2.9484471840065885, 1.9482402488128892, 0.7026903232862478, 0.0, 0.05771699504164168, 0.6594459208656835, 0.1333270524573957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.520136487115066, 0.0, 1.0, 1.2661344841508302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008551805847127919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.025498048488437, "coverage": 0.9995698480474746, "baseline_score": 72.30765869183845, "spot_peer_score": -4.2885981650185006, "peer_archived_score": 2.025498048488437, "baseline_archived_score": 72.30765869183845, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.2885981650185006 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643232765.350224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643232765.350224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9455038514405855, 0.054496148559414564 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Several U.S. allies participate in [nuclear sharing through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm) According to publicly-available information, these countries are Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. These countries occupy a [special position](https://k1project.columbia.edu/news/caring-about-sharing) in the nuclear world; they are classified as \"non-nuclear\" countries for the purposes of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but they host nuclear weapons on their territory.\n\nThe Federation of American Scientists provides an overview of [U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe](https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Brief2019_EuroNukes_CACNP_.pdf).\n\nThe United States and NATO leadership continue to view this arrangement as crucial to the defense of Europe and the security of the free world, and make this case publicly, as in this recent op-ed in the Frankfurter Allgemeine, \"[Germany’s support for nuclear sharing is vital to protect peace and freedom](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_175663.htm).\"\n\nThis attitude, however, is not necessarily in line with domestic audiences, some of whom have long protested stationing weapons of mass destruction on their purportedly \"non-nuclear\" soil. Germany is a valuable example. Recent polls conducted by the Munich Security conference show that [66% percent of respondents](https://securityconference.org/assets/01_Bilder_Inhalte/03_Medien/02_Publikationen/MSC_Germany_Report_10-2020_Engl.pdf) said they believed Germany should “renounce nuclear deterrence entirely.” Polling by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons similarly shows that [public opinion in EU states opposes nuclear weapons](https://www.icanw.org/polls_public_opinion_in_eu_host_states_firmly_opposes_nuclear_weapons).\n\nPublic opinion has helped to drive the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The treaty is widely understood to be symbolic, especially without the signatures of any nuclear power, but after collecting 50 signatures, the [TPNW entered into force in January 2021](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/#:~:text=The%20Treaty%20entered%20into%20force,approval%2C%20or%20accession%20was%20deposited.). It is \"the first treaty in history that categorically and permanently prohibits for all its parties the testing, possession, transfer, use, or threat of use of nuclear weapons, and that aims for universal participation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-05/legal-and-political-myths-of-the-treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/))\n\nIn the ICAN poll cited above, 68% of polled Germans believed the country should sign the TPNW. These developments, and the German Green Party's traditional opposition to all things nuclear, have led to an examination of [the future of nuclear sharing given the upcoming German election](https://www.brookings.edu/research/germanys-upcoming-election-and-the-future-of-nuclear-sharing/). \n\nSignature of the TPNW by any current nuclear-sharing state would likely significantly alter NATO deterrence policy, and would indicate a crack in the alliance. Thus, even if the TPNW has no \"teeth,\" as critics point out, the outcome of this question has significant consequences for the future of transatlantic security environment.\n\nThis question asks whether any NATO member state currently hosting U.S. nuclear weapons will sign on to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 11:59pm on 31 December 2022." }, { "id": 7688, "title": "Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?", "short_title": "Aubrey de Grey to leave SENS by 2022", "url_title": "Aubrey de Grey to leave SENS by 2022", "slug": "aubrey-de-grey-to-leave-sens-by-2022", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-11T18:03:03.995258Z", "published_at": "2021-08-12T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.577463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-12T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-22T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-22T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-12T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7688, "title": "Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?", "created_at": "2021-08-11T18:03:03.995258Z", "open_time": "2021-08-12T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-13T23:06:04.594460Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-13T23:06:04.594460Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-22T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-22T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-22T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Statnews](https://www.statnews.com/2021/08/11/anti-aging-research-pioneer-aubrey-de-grey-placed-on-leave-over-sexual-harassment-allegations/),\n\n> Aubrey de Grey, the jet-setting gerontologist who co-founded the SENS Research Foundation to discover ways to reverse the ravages of aging, has been placed on leave by the foundation after being accused of sexual harassment by two prominent entrepreneurs in the field of healthy life span extension.\n\n> On Tuesday night, Laura Deming, the 27-year-old founder of the Longevity Fund, and Celine Halioua, the 26-year-old founder and CEO of Loyal, a biotech startup developing drugs to help dogs live longer, posted accounts on their blogs and to Twitter of experiences they had with de Grey as young scientists trying to gain a foothold in the field.\n\n> De Grey denied the allegations in a post on Facebook, and SENS issued a statement saying he had been placed on leave pending the outcome of an investigation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if some official statement is made by the SENS Research Foundation indicating that Aubrey de Grey is terminated, or if Aubrey de Grey voluntarily resigns from the SENS Research Foundation. If neither happen by January 1st 2022, then this question resolves negatively. \n\nFor the purpose of this question, Aubrey de Grey is said to be \"terminated\" if the staff of SENS indicate that they are separating indefinitely from him. If he merely leaves for a short period of time, with the intention to return, this question should not resolve positively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7688, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632328064.733751, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632328064.733751, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.08999999999999997, 0.91 ], "means": [ 0.9014942792738454 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019763200525110228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06050175555485821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024521526059856833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13294920078905473, 0.01414047269109762, 0.0, 0.039003561466750214, 0.0, 0.20005070513194295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05870557476045682, 0.04492986066620649, 0.0, 0.11935795955623035, 0.03365548811464179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5157379068119693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06665641869459375, 0.0, 1.0516466851635315, 0.09543546787520314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3175178407402153, 0.7663317855502247, 0.9084523041027615, 0.164936261357295, 0.16378110850070704, 1.8377920741367793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2882731811367703 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.377314485037553, "coverage": 0.09527694550951991, "baseline_score": -1.0037228927238702, "spot_peer_score": -15.974233020724995, "peer_archived_score": 1.377314485037553, "baseline_archived_score": -1.0037228927238702, "spot_peer_archived_score": -15.974233020724995 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1629646074.13385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1629646074.13385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3294778583740803, 0.6705221416259197 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Statnews](https://www.statnews.com/2021/08/11/anti-aging-research-pioneer-aubrey-de-grey-placed-on-leave-over-sexual-harassment-allegations/),\n\n> Aubrey de Grey, the jet-setting gerontologist who co-founded the SENS Research Foundation to discover ways to reverse the ravages of aging, has been placed on leave by the foundation after being accused of sexual harassment by two prominent entrepreneurs in the field of healthy life span extension.\n\n> On Tuesday night, Laura Deming, the 27-year-old founder of the Longevity Fund, and Celine Halioua, the 26-year-old founder and CEO of Loyal, a biotech startup developing drugs to help dogs live longer, posted accounts on their blogs and to Twitter of experiences they had with de Grey as young scientists trying to gain a foothold in the field.\n\n> De Grey denied the allegations in a post on Facebook, and SENS issued a statement saying he had been placed on leave pending the outcome of an investigation." }, { "id": 7669, "title": "Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "France Home Game Advantage", "url_title": "France Home Game Advantage", "slug": "france-home-game-advantage", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-09T16:31:20.826357Z", "published_at": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.459573Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, 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"2021-08-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T16:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [How many medals will Team USA win at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/)\n* [Will the Team USA top the medal table at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/)\n\n----\n\n[There is a phenomenon at the Olympics where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\n\nFrance is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. [Their last 6 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_at_the_Olympics#Medals_by_Summer_Games):\n\n```\n2000: 6th \n2004: 7th \n2008: 10th \n2012: 7th \n2016: 7th\n2020: 8th\n```", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if France place in the top 5 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2024. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2024.\n\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n\n1. Number of Gold Medals\n2. (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals\n3. 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Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. [Their last 6 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_at_the_Olympics#Medals_by_Summer_Games):\n\n```\n2000: 6th \n2004: 7th \n2008: 10th \n2012: 7th \n2016: 7th\n2020: 8th\n```" }, { "id": 7664, "title": "Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?", "short_title": "USA most successful Olympic Team in Paris", "url_title": "USA most successful Olympic Team in Paris", "slug": "usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-08T16:30:13.579172Z", "published_at": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.023111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7664, "title": "Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?", "created_at": "2021-08-08T16:30:13.579172Z", "open_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-19T08:48:59.652000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-19T08:48:59.652000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\n\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\n\nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent Olympics, topping the medal table in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2024?\n\n*Related questions*\n\n* [How many medals will Team USA win in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/)\n* [Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Paris Olympics do not take place before 2027. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n\nThe medal table is calculated by taking all the medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n\n1. Number of Gold Medals\n2. (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals\n3. 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It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\n\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\n\nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent Olympics, topping the medal table in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2024?\n\n*Related questions*\n\n* [How many medals will Team USA win in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/)\n* [Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/" }, { "id": 7663, "title": "Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?", "short_title": "Taliban to capture Kandahar before Ramadan", "url_title": "Taliban to capture Kandahar before Ramadan", "slug": "taliban-to-capture-kandahar-before-ramadan", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-07T22:39:05.848287Z", "published_at": "2021-08-12T17:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.804736Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-12T17:20:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-12T22:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-31T20:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-31T20:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-12T22:25:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-12T17:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7663, "title": "Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?", "created_at": "2021-08-07T22:39:05.848287Z", "open_time": "2021-08-12T17:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-14T17:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-14T17:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-31T20:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-12T22:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-12T22:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-31T20:29:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-12T22:25:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the withdrawal of nearly all American military forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban has re-emerged in force and the war in Afghanistan has entered [\"a new, deadlier, and more destructive\nphase.\"](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/08/1097312) In June and July, the Taliban seized large rural areas of the country, and from there began to threaten larger cities. Zaranj, the capital of Nimruz province, [was the first to fall](https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/zaranj-becomes-first-afghan-provincial-capital-fall-taliban) on August 6th, [followed on August 7th](https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-174046) by Jowzjan's capital, Sheberghan. As of that date, [there was heavy fighting in Helmand's capital Laskargah](https://in.news.yahoo.com/afghanistan-taliban-conduct-heavy-attacks-032357458.html) and [in Herat city](https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/afghanistan-herat-taliban-mujahideen-b1898155.html), all of which, [like Kandahar](https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/06/asia/afghanistan-kandahar-taliban-threat-cmd-intl/index.html), were effectively besieged. The [United States](https://www.yahoo.com/now/u-urges-americans-afghanistan-leave-154808592.html) and [Britain](https://news.sky.com/story/britons-warned-to-leave-afghanistan-immediately-as-war-enters-deadlier-and-more-destructive-phase-12374649) have both urged any remaining citizens to leave immediately in the face of Taliban atrocities and the deteriorating security situation.\n\n[According to the Long War Journal](https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/07/taliban-advances-on-herat-city.php),\n\n> The Taliban offensive is tying up key Afghan military assets, including its air force, Commandos and Special Forces. These military assets have proven to be most effective at keeping the Taliban from seizing cities. These units are being ground down by continual fighting. By attacking multiple cities at the same time, the Taliban is forcing the Afghan military to disperse its forces and water down its combat power.", "resolution_criteria": "*(= 13:26 GMT on April 1st, 2022)*", "fine_print": "Resolves positive if at any point before the resolution time, the Taliban and/or Taliban-allied armed groups physically occupy and hold both the Kandahar Governor's Office and the adjacent Shrine of the Cloak in downtown Kandahar. Administrators will determine this by credible media reports that these locations are occupied, or that downtown Kandahar or Kandahar city in general are occupied.\n\nResolves negative if the resolution time is reached without such occurrence. Resolution may be delayed in the unlikely event that there is fighting ongoing in the immediate area of the office and the shrine at resolution time, or even ambiguous if these locations pass into Taliban occupation around resolution time but the exact chronology cannot be worked out.", "post_id": 7663, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628807005.201192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628807005.201192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9812978287448428 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 3.769982398845827 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.005821344196424197, "coverage": 0.0012301433479593045, "baseline_score": 0.1188374520569307, "spot_peer_score": 3.148140322001399, "peer_archived_score": 0.005821344196424197, "baseline_archived_score": 0.1188374520569307, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.148140322001399 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628807005.248015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628807005.248015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.02292764266318137, 0.9770723573368186 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the withdrawal of nearly all American military forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban has re-emerged in force and the war in Afghanistan has entered [\"a new, deadlier, and more destructive\nphase.\"](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/08/1097312) In June and July, the Taliban seized large rural areas of the country, and from there began to threaten larger cities. Zaranj, the capital of Nimruz province, [was the first to fall](https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/zaranj-becomes-first-afghan-provincial-capital-fall-taliban) on August 6th, [followed on August 7th](https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-174046) by Jowzjan's capital, Sheberghan. As of that date, [there was heavy fighting in Helmand's capital Laskargah](https://in.news.yahoo.com/afghanistan-taliban-conduct-heavy-attacks-032357458.html) and [in Herat city](https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/afghanistan-herat-taliban-mujahideen-b1898155.html), all of which, [like Kandahar](https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/06/asia/afghanistan-kandahar-taliban-threat-cmd-intl/index.html), were effectively besieged. The [United States](https://www.yahoo.com/now/u-urges-americans-afghanistan-leave-154808592.html) and [Britain](https://news.sky.com/story/britons-warned-to-leave-afghanistan-immediately-as-war-enters-deadlier-and-more-destructive-phase-12374649) have both urged any remaining citizens to leave immediately in the face of Taliban atrocities and the deteriorating security situation.\n\n[According to the Long War Journal](https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/07/taliban-advances-on-herat-city.php),\n\n> The Taliban offensive is tying up key Afghan military assets, including its air force, Commandos and Special Forces. These military assets have proven to be most effective at keeping the Taliban from seizing cities. These units are being ground down by continual fighting. By attacking multiple cities at the same time, the Taliban is forcing the Afghan military to disperse its forces and water down its combat power." }, { "id": 7660, "title": "Will the first human clone be made in China?", "short_title": "First Human Clone From China", "url_title": "First Human Clone From China", "slug": "first-human-clone-from-china", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-06T17:48:11.442674Z", "published_at": "2022-05-23T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T06:39:13.125107Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-23T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2079-12-31T07:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2080-01-01T07:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-05-23T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7660, "title": "Will the first human clone be made in China?", "created_at": "2021-08-06T17:48:11.442674Z", "open_time": "2022-05-23T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-24T09:19:15.015388Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-24T09:19:15.015388Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2080-01-01T07:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2079-12-31T07:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2079-12-31T07:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China appears to be at the forefront of some aspects of biotechnology, being the first in the world both to successfully [clone primates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhong_Zhong_and_Hua_Hua) and to successfully [gene edit humans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/He_Jiankui_affair).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the first human being to be successfully cloned was cloned in China, according to credible media reports. For this question, a successful cloning must survive at least until the start of the calendar day immediately after its date of birth, in local time. There are no other specific requirements for duration of survival, phenotype, or genotype, except that the clone must be human.\n\nIf the first successful human clone is born in a region other than China, this question will resolve as **No**. This question will resolve for the first cloning which is credibly reported to the public; if later reports reveal that a successful human cloning occured earlier, the question will **not** re-resolve.\n\nIf a human has not been successfully cloned by January 1, 2080, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7660, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763620742.24881, "end_time": 1768140625.941755, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763620742.24881, "end_time": 1768140625.941755, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.39966611847994693 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5804197412804394, 0.5117106904791824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0815308393084078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9974948678927598, 0.0, 0.0032942504413227035, 0.025311741707785575, 0.0, 1.3798773236196662, 0.19873151917740314, 0.03867734993865754, 0.8778014855667073, 0.0, 0.34621719426661424, 0.0, 0.4502118393382578, 0.6570695930046578, 0.05098420589841443, 1.0055938211000406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0482396193469017, 0.043370279854258474, 0.21352449006712118, 1.3700306976932952, 0.36368577308246597, 0.06084405894284453, 0.8564777359725317, 1.4306292511348346, 0.0, 0.09258855488263372, 0.0, 0.051417753521508035, 0.007189365496663638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7424553876509291, 0.06457604800810786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029698284750889984, 0.13402451998999346, 0.0, 0.002744236364250548, 0.0, 0.5148568605654329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07929562922304681, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2825516661653255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289780.346358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289780.346358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.777146708830681, 0.22285329116931896 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 176, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China appears to be at the forefront of some aspects of biotechnology, being the first in the world both to successfully [clone primates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhong_Zhong_and_Hua_Hua) and to successfully [gene edit humans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/He_Jiankui_affair)." }, { "id": 7644, "title": "Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?", "short_title": "ASAT Weapons Tests and Space Debris by 2023", "url_title": "ASAT Weapons Tests and Space Debris by 2023", "slug": "asat-weapons-tests-and-space-debris-by-2023", "author_id": 119050, "author_username": "crule", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-03T19:14:33.228733Z", "published_at": "2021-08-08T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.082668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-08T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-16T00:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-16T00:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-08T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7644, "title": "Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?", "created_at": "2021-08-03T19:14:33.228733Z", "open_time": "2021-08-08T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-09T23:40:04.212086Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-09T23:40:04.212086Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-16T00:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-11-16T00:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-16T00:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons come in a variety of forms, including cyber operations, electronic jamming, laser \"dazzling,\" and kinetic physical attacks like missiles and co-orbital weapons. [Space Threat Assessment 2021](https://www.csis.org/analysis/space-threat-assessment-2021)\n\nSome of these ASAT weapons may produce orbital debris or \"space junk\" that remains in orbit for prolonged periods of time. This is a major concern as the amount of objects in Earth's orbit and the complexity of space traffic management increase. [Union of Concerned Scientists Space Debris Fact Sheet](https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/debris-in-brief-factsheet.pdf)\n\nFor example, a January 2007 kinetic ASAT test conducted by China on a non-operational weather satellite created over 3,000 pieces of space debris. [2007 Chinese Anti-Satellite Test Fact Sheet, Secure World Foundation](https://swfound.org/media/9550/chinese_asat_fact_sheet_updated_2012.pdf) India's 2019 Mission Shakti is another example. See, e.g. [\"NASA Says Debris From India’s Antisatellite Test Puts Space Station at Risk\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/world/asia/nasa-india-space-debris.html).\n\nAs both the militarization and the commercialization of space continue, the effects of space debris-producing ASAT tests have become a source of concern for the international community. \n\nThis question asks whether an ASAT test by any state actor will create more than one piece of space debris between the launch of this question and the question closing date, as reported by credible news sources or research institutes.\n\n***Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between the launch of this question and January 1, 2023?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a mainstream news source or wire service (e.g. AP, NYT, etc.) or a credible non-profit organization or research center (e.g. Center for Strategic International Studies, Aerospace Corporation) concludes that an ASAT test conducted by a state actor resulted in more than one piece of space debris between 2021-08-06 and 2023-01-01.\n\nBoth the 2007 Chinese ASAT test and the 2019 Indian ASAT test would have resolved positively. See [China ASAT NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/18/world/asia/18cnd-china.html) and [India ASAT NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/world/asia/nasa-india-space-debris.html)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7644, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638656792.058112, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638656792.058112, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9632173766957719 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06938252827916373, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7661314172892493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5897509340037478, 8.200829155125692 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.1228237219774644, "coverage": 0.19510808760863824, "baseline_score": -5.80676919721346, "spot_peer_score": 14.238398513726585, "peer_archived_score": 2.1228237219774644, "baseline_archived_score": -5.80676919721346, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.238398513726585 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1637021144.698201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1637021144.698201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.37163553534007043, 0.6283644646599296 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 7643, "title": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?", "short_title": "Andrew Cuomo still NY Governor on 2021-12-31", "url_title": "Andrew Cuomo still NY Governor on 2021-12-31", "slug": "andrew-cuomo-still-ny-governor-on-2021-12-31", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-03T18:08:23.346024Z", "published_at": "2021-08-03T18:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.152543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-03T18:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-10T16:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-10T16:15:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-03T18:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7643, "title": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?", "created_at": "2021-08-03T18:08:23.346024Z", "open_time": "2021-08-03T18:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-03T20:59:58.769603Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-03T20:59:58.769603Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-10T16:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-10T16:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-10T16:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Governor Andrew Cuomo has been dogged by [multiple sexual harassment allegations bv multiple women](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Cuomo_sexual_harassment_allegations) since December 2020.\n\nAn independent investigation by New York Attorney General Letitia James was [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/28/cuomo-agrees-to-independent-probe-of-sexual-harassment-allegations.html) on 28 February 2021. It concluded on 3 August 2021 and [found](https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2021.08.03_nyag_-_investigative_report.pdf) the following:\n\n> We...conclude that the Governor engaged in conduct constituting sexual harassment under federal and New York State law. Specifically, we find that the Governor sexually harassed a number of current and former New York State employees by, among other things, engaging in unwelcome and nonconsensual touching, as well as making numerous offensive comments of a suggestive and sexual nature that created a hostile work environment for women. Our investigation revealed that the Governor’s sexually harassing behavior was not limited to members of his own staff, but extended to other State employees, including a State Trooper on his protective detail and members of the public. We also conclude that the Executive Chamber’s culture—one filled with fear and intimidation, while at the same time normalizing the Governor’s frequent flirtations and gender-based comments—contributed to the conditions that allowed the sexual harassment to occur and persist. That culture also influenced the improper and inadequate ways in which the Executive Chamber has responded to allegations of harassment.\n\nFollowing the release of the report, multiple prominent Democrats [called on Cuomo to resign](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/566131-democrats-renew-calls-for-cuomo-to-resign-over-harassment-findings), but at a press conference on 3 August Cuomo [appeared to decline to resign](https://apnews.com/article/andrew-cuomo-investigation-sexual-harassment-04b0e7ba80db368124a5e9c9bcf4dc0d). Cuomo is also the subject of a New York state assembly [impeachment inquiry](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/12/976342887/new-york-state-assembly-speaker-authorizes-impeachment-inquiry-into-governor-cuo).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on 31 December 2021 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\n\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/) previous question by user johnnycaffeine.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7643, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628612095.166512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628612095.166512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.20160084552096635 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 6.627278670753859, 0.001379858935095631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0935995340834141, 0.4128280026621309, 0.0, 0.33101098689432684, 0.0, 0.1981830923759809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22222792306962602, 0.0, 1.9050511396902006, 0.0, 0.29578727315708164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17949887636650294, 0.10661573877969899, 0.05456038589709138, 0.0, 0.4601249823577798, 0.8195879583655923, 0.02410537821862302, 0.0, 0.047364815207411516, 0.0, 0.6285847050492616, 0.5265945558647601, 0.10389449329064453, 0.004222618160365907, 0.34578258127500794, 1.042836892627811, 0.0, 0.14575367837802375, 0.0, 0.03344648828705708, 0.9817931322887781, 0.03042662909820105, 0.0, 0.12875091648662737, 0.5977155451264773, 0.7890587742728077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6628819313596972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6705128502102402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007307431730717883, 0.0, 0.08767639997917948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0440833820924566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.5392984454204633, "coverage": 0.23896761326083935, "baseline_score": 11.618861396054736, "spot_peer_score": 1.547940649719776, "peer_archived_score": 0.5392984454204633, "baseline_archived_score": 11.618861396054736, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.547940649719776 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628612095.212457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628612095.212457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8132750733174964, 0.18672492668250362 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 191, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Governor Andrew Cuomo has been dogged by [multiple sexual harassment allegations bv multiple women](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Cuomo_sexual_harassment_allegations) since December 2020.\n\nAn independent investigation by New York Attorney General Letitia James was [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/28/cuomo-agrees-to-independent-probe-of-sexual-harassment-allegations.html) on 28 February 2021. It concluded on 3 August 2021 and [found](https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2021.08.03_nyag_-_investigative_report.pdf) the following:\n\n> We...conclude that the Governor engaged in conduct constituting sexual harassment under federal and New York State law. Specifically, we find that the Governor sexually harassed a number of current and former New York State employees by, among other things, engaging in unwelcome and nonconsensual touching, as well as making numerous offensive comments of a suggestive and sexual nature that created a hostile work environment for women. Our investigation revealed that the Governor’s sexually harassing behavior was not limited to members of his own staff, but extended to other State employees, including a State Trooper on his protective detail and members of the public. We also conclude that the Executive Chamber’s culture—one filled with fear and intimidation, while at the same time normalizing the Governor’s frequent flirtations and gender-based comments—contributed to the conditions that allowed the sexual harassment to occur and persist. That culture also influenced the improper and inadequate ways in which the Executive Chamber has responded to allegations of harassment.\n\nFollowing the release of the report, multiple prominent Democrats [called on Cuomo to resign](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/566131-democrats-renew-calls-for-cuomo-to-resign-over-harassment-findings), but at a press conference on 3 August Cuomo [appeared to decline to resign](https://apnews.com/article/andrew-cuomo-investigation-sexual-harassment-04b0e7ba80db368124a5e9c9bcf4dc0d). Cuomo is also the subject of a New York state assembly [impeachment inquiry](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/12/976342887/new-york-state-assembly-speaker-authorizes-impeachment-inquiry-into-governor-cuo)." }, { "id": 7641, "title": "Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?", "short_title": "UK Inflation Prediction in 2021", "url_title": "UK Inflation Prediction in 2021", "slug": "uk-inflation-prediction-in-2021", "author_id": 119143, "author_username": "Grisbe", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-03T13:09:24.260115Z", "published_at": "2021-08-08T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.843203Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-08T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-15T15:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-28T14:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-28T14:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-15T15:40:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-08T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7641, "title": "Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?", "created_at": "2021-08-03T13:09:24.260115Z", "open_time": "2021-08-08T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-09T15:58:28.126382Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-09T15:58:28.126382Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-28T14:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-15T15:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-15T15:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-28T14:08:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-15T15:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brexit and COVID-19 are increasing fiscal and commercial operating costs, including labour, goods, energy and transport. When combined with the UK Government's increased cost of servicing fiscal debt and the rising likelihood of interest rate increases, there is an increasing market expectation of rising UK inflation with CPIH standing at 2.4% as at June 2021, up 1.6 percentage points from 0.8% in December 2020 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23)", "resolution_criteria": "The UK Office for National Statistics will report December 2021's value for UK CPIH by February 2022. If this value (or any prior values in 2021) is more than 4% then the question will resolve YES, otherwise the question will resolve NO.", "fine_print": "The measure of inflation used is CPIH as defined, measured and recorded by the UK Office for National Statistics.", "post_id": 7641, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641555271.603456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641555271.603456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7754186419630738 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15306473011963811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0975061826010293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.041937583413620604, 0.3615297569657111, 0.2984177519459279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.9839589103830346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3325315572279212, 0.0, 0.7173885460803247, 0.968344236502077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17249978086131545, 0.06364559424422328, 0.014010486522538886, 0.7095347889677784, 0.0, 1.3678794411714423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5407300041287509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3349993174965222 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.07076873958647062, "coverage": 0.6327035307121798, "baseline_score": 10.09379938814281, "spot_peer_score": 14.527880644653484, "peer_archived_score": -0.07076873958647062, "baseline_archived_score": 10.09379938814281, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.527880644653484 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1639361289.064088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1639361289.064088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.37634752903640656, 0.6236524709635934 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brexit and COVID-19 are increasing fiscal and commercial operating costs, including labour, goods, energy and transport. When combined with the UK Government's increased cost of servicing fiscal debt and the rising likelihood of interest rate increases, there is an increasing market expectation of rising UK inflation with CPIH standing at 2.4% as at June 2021, up 1.6 percentage points from 0.8% in December 2020 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23)" }, { "id": 7640, "title": "Will Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct power and influence in UK before 2050?", "short_title": "Dominic Cummings in power again?", "url_title": "Dominic Cummings in power again?", "slug": "dominic-cummings-in-power-again", "author_id": 112451, "author_username": "NunoSempere", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-02T20:20:00.177890Z", "published_at": "2021-09-20T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.266300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-09-20T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, 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for directing the Vote Leave campaign before then.\n\nRecently, his [substack](https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/high-performance-startup-government) contains the phrase: \"If we’re going to do politics/government much better, we must carefully study some examples.\"\n\nThis question doesn't concern itself whether Dominic Cummings is going to do politics/government \"much better\", but solely with whether he is \"going to do government\" again.\n\n\"Being in power\" is a fairly [fuzzy concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_concept), but for the purposes of this question, it is taken to mean: \n\n- Being employed at least three days a week by any one of: a UK political party, the UK Civil Service, a UK politician, or \n- holding political office in the UK, the EU, or any organization of the [UN system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_System)", "resolution_criteria": "***Will Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct political power in the UK before 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Public health officials in Virginia are currently weighing key decisions that have to be made in preparation for the summer and fall. Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nDetails regarding Round 2 will be announced over the summer. \r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.873147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7636, "title": "Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?", "created_at": "2021-08-01T20:34:02.818233Z", "open_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-05T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-12T21:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-12T21:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-12T21:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The statewide indoor mask mandate for all schools in Virginia [expired on 25 July 2021](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/2021-news-releases/virginia-departments-of-health-and-education-release-updated-guidance-for-prek-12-schools-prek-12-schools-will-make-locally-informed-decisions-on-masking-and-prevention-measures-as-informed-by/). This [Public Health Order](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/134/2021/07/Public-Health-Order_7-2-2021.pdf) by the State Health Commissioner applied to all students five and older at all public and private prek-12 schools.\n\nSchools in Virginia currently have the [“ability to implement local mask policies based on community level conditions and public health recommendations,”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/2021-news-releases/virginia-departments-of-health-and-education-release-updated-guidance-for-prek-12-schools-prek-12-schools-will-make-locally-informed-decisions-on-masking-and-prevention-measures-as-informed-by/) though Virginia guidance still [“strongly recommends”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/2021-news-releases/virginia-departments-of-health-and-education-release-updated-guidance-for-prek-12-schools-prek-12-schools-will-make-locally-informed-decisions-on-masking-and-prevention-measures-as-informed-by/) indoor masking requirements at schools.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positive if Virginia’s State Health Commissioner announces a new indoor mask mandate for all Virginian school divisions before 1 October 2021. An indoor mask mandate for all Virginian schools may also be announced as part of a State of Emergency declared by the governor of Virginia for this to resolve positive. Such a mandate should apply to at least all students five and older at all public and private prek-12 schools. Exceptions similar to those of the [last order](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/134/2021/07/Public-Health-Order_7-2-2021.pdf) — namely, allowances for eating/drinking — can be made.\n\n**8 August clarification: A new indoor mask mandate for all Virginian school divisions may also be announced by the [Virginia Department of Education (VDOE)](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/news/news_releases/2021/index.shtml) for this to resolve positive. Moreover, a new statewide indoor school mask mandate can exempt vaccinated individuals for this to resolve positive.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7636, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628847999.884508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628847999.884508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6334274511210208 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.42931196990158194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6669250863737062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 1.5999998251818583, 1.6864180966480453, 1.4672105095865267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4487581077235349, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17808722904089816, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.096926309703228, "coverage": 0.653043944624801, "baseline_score": 26.6189226936884, "spot_peer_score": 28.4600366733672, "peer_archived_score": 13.096926309703228, "baseline_archived_score": 26.6189226936884, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.4600366733672 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628798519.842291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628798519.842291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3505206863533844, 0.6494793136466156 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The statewide indoor mask mandate for all schools in Virginia [expired on 25 July 2021](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/2021-news-releases/virginia-departments-of-health-and-education-release-updated-guidance-for-prek-12-schools-prek-12-schools-will-make-locally-informed-decisions-on-masking-and-prevention-measures-as-informed-by/). This [Public Health Order](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/134/2021/07/Public-Health-Order_7-2-2021.pdf) by the State Health Commissioner applied to all students five and older at all public and private prek-12 schools.\n\nSchools in Virginia currently have the [“ability to implement local mask policies based on community level conditions and public health recommendations,”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/2021-news-releases/virginia-departments-of-health-and-education-release-updated-guidance-for-prek-12-schools-prek-12-schools-will-make-locally-informed-decisions-on-masking-and-prevention-measures-as-informed-by/) though Virginia guidance still [“strongly recommends”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/2021-news-releases/virginia-departments-of-health-and-education-release-updated-guidance-for-prek-12-schools-prek-12-schools-will-make-locally-informed-decisions-on-masking-and-prevention-measures-as-informed-by/) indoor masking requirements at schools." }, { "id": 7635, "title": "Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?", "short_title": "New VA COVID State of Emergency", "url_title": "New VA COVID State of Emergency", "slug": "new-va-covid-state-of-emergency", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111848, "username": "juancambeiro" } ], "created_at": "2021-08-01T20:25:52.456879Z", "published_at": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.510231Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2946, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.674200Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:50:44.984589Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2946, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.674200Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:50:44.984589Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 940, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe Tournament", "slug": "vdh", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Keeping_Virginia_Safe_Banner_XHpMAOp.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Tournament! Public health officials in Virginia are currently weighing key decisions that have to be made in preparation for the summer and fall. Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nDetails regarding Round 2 will be announced over the summer. \r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.873147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7635, "title": "Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?", "created_at": "2021-08-01T20:25:52.456879Z", "open_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-05T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The State of Emergency that Virginian Governor Northam declared on 12 March 2020 in response to COVID-19 [expired on 30 June 2021](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2021/june/headline-897920-en.html). As such, as of 1 July 2021 [“all Executive Orders imposing COVID-19 restrictions are either expired or terminated.”](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/executive-actions/). \n\nAccording to a Washington Post [article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-maryland-virginia-officials-consider-lifting-states-of-emergency/2021/06/14/cb83757e-cd16-11eb-a7f1-52b8870bef7c_story.html), Governor Northam’s spokeswoman Alena Yarmosky has said the governor lifted the state of emergency given high vaccination rates and that as such “COVID-19 is no longer an immediate emergency in our commonwealth.”\n\nHowever, since then COVID-19 cases have risen [quickly](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf) as part of a new Delta-driven wave, though the rise in hospitalizations and deaths is more subdued.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positive if the governor of Virginia [announces](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/) a new State of Emergency in response to COVID-19 before 1 October 2021", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7635, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1629213209.140203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1629213209.140203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.41207513523347117 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6454482383446432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17667808904133153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45172391324357597, 0.0, 0.23068213911486676, 0.216998672059816, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 2.6181442342679717, 1.4929768991621573, 0.17249978086131545, 1.353482143818844, 0.07919054371229513, 0.7745776596494143, 0.0, 0.6592521451767032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023192367940811438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.379832009015853, "coverage": 0.9825309091420085, "baseline_score": 50.56205236723364, "spot_peer_score": 10.35985887795905, "peer_archived_score": 5.379832009015853, "baseline_archived_score": 50.56205236723364, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.35985887795905 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1629213209.15753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1629213209.15753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6420941573341463, 0.3579058426658537 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The State of Emergency that Virginian Governor Northam declared on 12 March 2020 in response to COVID-19 [expired on 30 June 2021](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2021/june/headline-897920-en.html). As such, as of 1 July 2021 [“all Executive Orders imposing COVID-19 restrictions are either expired or terminated.”](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/executive-actions/). \n\nAccording to a Washington Post [article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-maryland-virginia-officials-consider-lifting-states-of-emergency/2021/06/14/cb83757e-cd16-11eb-a7f1-52b8870bef7c_story.html), Governor Northam’s spokeswoman Alena Yarmosky has said the governor lifted the state of emergency given high vaccination rates and that as such “COVID-19 is no longer an immediate emergency in our commonwealth.”\n\nHowever, since then COVID-19 cases have risen [quickly](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf) as part of a new Delta-driven wave, though the rise in hospitalizations and deaths is more subdued." }, { "id": 7631, "title": "Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?", "short_title": "Israel Recognizes Palestine by 2070", "url_title": "Israel Recognizes Palestine by 2070", "slug": "israel-recognizes-palestine-by-2070", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-08-01T03:08:45.942041Z", "published_at": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T17:00:55.404623Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2048-05-14T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-02-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7631, "title": "Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?", "created_at": "2021-08-01T03:08:45.942041Z", "open_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-02-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2048-05-14T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2048-05-14T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [two-state solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution) is a proposed solution to the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), involving mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine. [Many attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_process) have been made to reach such a solution.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the [State of Palestine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Palestine) is legally recognized by the [State of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) before January 1, 2070. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In the case of a merger between the two, that does not count as recognition", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7631, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763082989.687901, "end_time": 1764618567.326134, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763082989.687901, "end_time": 1764618567.326134, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.32514675494606865 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6643089772234341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9238331356009382, 0.0, 0.007845502359319072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4868876012643002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009582901797793895, 2.0147832936795353, 0.0, 0.14420135335636955, 0.09723778993698115, 0.0, 1.2095019812469334, 0.10398802078225193, 0.0002405504347663601, 0.5589792340554529, 0.0, 2.222782843199596, 0.0, 0.42375495485046893, 2.147093221775172, 0.45527358151640407, 0.9438961354675073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4746867677934946, 0.12273323935306459, 0.08577954599618036, 1.0, 0.03263927293297178, 0.09087002260986302, 0.0, 0.16590037267992583, 0.0, 0.20656127054778672, 0.0005471834881316766, 0.0738760997845549, 1.976949748309986, 0.0, 0.050811716435164425, 0.0021522465630343358, 0.0, 0.5490128309015537, 0.05551290601746709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012757581742051037, 0.003611295455062832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002812135840968239, 0.00015897011254802272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06413312070665313, 0.0, 0.28322519079520614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19153879110336886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01161693045818606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06885678349563785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03530713865235783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021694108310922836 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287974.808221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287974.808221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7753024948258508, 0.22469750517414924 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 315, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [two-state solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution) is a proposed solution to the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), involving mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine. [Many attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_process) have been made to reach such a solution." }, { "id": 7629, "title": "Will Virginia announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021?", "short_title": "VA to announce state worker vaccine mandate", "url_title": "VA to announce state worker vaccine mandate", "slug": "va-to-announce-state-worker-vaccine-mandate", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111848, "username": "juancambeiro" } ], "created_at": "2021-07-31T22:13:01.978880Z", "published_at": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.642064Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-05T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-05T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2946, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.674200Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:50:44.984589Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2946, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.674200Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:50:44.984589Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 940, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe Tournament", "slug": "vdh", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Keeping_Virginia_Safe_Banner_XHpMAOp.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Tournament! Public health officials in Virginia are currently weighing key decisions that have to be made in preparation for the summer and fall. Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nDetails regarding Round 2 will be announced over the summer. \r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.873147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7629, "title": "Will Virginia announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021?", "created_at": "2021-07-31T22:13:01.978880Z", "open_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-05T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-05T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-05T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-05T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of 31 July, [two](https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2021-07-29/these-governors-are-mandating-the-covid-19-vaccine-for-government-employees) states in the U.S. — California and New York — have announced vaccine mandates for their state workforces. Only 26 July California announced it is requiring all state workers to [“show proof of vaccination or be tested regularly”](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2021/07/26/california-implements-first-in-the-nation-measures-to-encourage-state-employees-and-health-care-workers-to-get-vaccinated/) and on 28 July New York announced it is requiring all state workers to [“get vaccinated, and those who do not will be required to be tested for COVID-19 on a weekly basis.”](https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-updates-new-yorkers-states-progress-combating-covid-19-20).", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve on the basis of whether an [announcement](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/) is made by Virginia’s state government before 1 October that all Virginian state workers will need to be vaccinated or alternatively get tested for COVID-19 on a regular basis", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7629, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628270803.620016, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628270803.620016, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.8396830953746233 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7088250103212406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.6532306572811564 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.846176522675789, "coverage": 0.14531117042857264, "baseline_score": -3.101258321194491, "spot_peer_score": 73.58319502851907, "peer_archived_score": 7.846176522675789, "baseline_archived_score": -3.101258321194491, "spot_peer_archived_score": 73.58319502851907 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628150681.384236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628150681.384236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5969603141680272, 0.4030396858319728 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of 31 July, [two](https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2021-07-29/these-governors-are-mandating-the-covid-19-vaccine-for-government-employees) states in the U.S. — California and New York — have announced vaccine mandates for their state workforces. Only 26 July California announced it is requiring all state workers to [“show proof of vaccination or be tested regularly”](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2021/07/26/california-implements-first-in-the-nation-measures-to-encourage-state-employees-and-health-care-workers-to-get-vaccinated/) and on 28 July New York announced it is requiring all state workers to [“get vaccinated, and those who do not will be required to be tested for COVID-19 on a weekly basis.”](https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-updates-new-yorkers-states-progress-combating-covid-19-20)." }, { "id": 7603, "title": "Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?", "short_title": "Variant of High Consequence before Aug 2022", "url_title": "Variant of High Consequence before Aug 2022", "slug": "variant-of-high-consequence-before-aug-2022", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111848, "username": "juancambeiro" } ], "created_at": "2021-07-31T20:32:59.795384Z", "published_at": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.127111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-02T01:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-02T01:40:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2946, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.674200Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:50:44.984589Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2946, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.674200Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:50:44.984589Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 940, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe Tournament", "slug": "vdh", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Keeping_Virginia_Safe_Banner_XHpMAOp.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Tournament! Public health officials in Virginia are currently weighing key decisions that have to be made in preparation for the summer and fall. Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nDetails regarding Round 2 will be announced over the summer. \r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.873147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7603, "title": "Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2021-07-31T20:32:59.795384Z", "open_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-05T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-02T01:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-02T01:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-08-02T01:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Multiple [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2100362) that have [higher transmissibility](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055), cause [more severe disease](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579), or [that can evade immunity to some extent](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1103) have been detected and [tracked](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) since late 2020. The Delta variant, for instance, is [thought](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005395/23_July_2021_Risk_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_Delta.pdf) to be more transmissible than other SARS-CoV-2 variants and to result in reduced vaccine effectiveness.\n\nThe US CDC currently defines [three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html): variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence.\n\n>\n- **Variant of interest (VOI)**: “variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are six VOIs: B.1.427, B.1.429, B.1.525, B.1.526, B.1.617.1, and B.1.617.3.\n- **Variant of concern (VOC)**: “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are four VOCs: B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and P.1 (Gamma).\n- **Variant of high consequence (VOHC)**: “variant that has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are no VOHCs.\n\nA VOHC, in addition to having attributes of a VOC, might cause the following:\n\n>\n- Demonstrated failure of diagnostics\n- Evidence to suggest a significantly reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of vaccine breakthrough cases, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease\n- Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics\n- More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html) page before 1 August 2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7603, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635770353.69801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635770353.69801, "end_time": null, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Multiple [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2100362) that have [higher transmissibility](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055), cause [more severe disease](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579), or [that can evade immunity to some extent](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1103) have been detected and [tracked](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) since late 2020. The Delta variant, for instance, is [thought](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005395/23_July_2021_Risk_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_Delta.pdf) to be more transmissible than other SARS-CoV-2 variants and to result in reduced vaccine effectiveness.\n\nThe US CDC currently defines [three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html): variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence.\n\n>\n- **Variant of interest (VOI)**: “variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are six VOIs: B.1.427, B.1.429, B.1.525, B.1.526, B.1.617.1, and B.1.617.3.\n- **Variant of concern (VOC)**: “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are four VOCs: B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and P.1 (Gamma).\n- **Variant of high consequence (VOHC)**: “variant that has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are no VOHCs.\n\nA VOHC, in addition to having attributes of a VOC, might cause the following:\n\n>\n- Demonstrated failure of diagnostics\n- Evidence to suggest a significantly reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of vaccine breakthrough cases, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease\n- Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics\n- More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations" }, { "id": 7599, "title": "Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?", "short_title": "USA Withdraws From a Mutual Defence Treaty?", "url_title": "USA Withdraws From a Mutual Defence Treaty?", "slug": "usa-withdraws-from-a-mutual-defence-treaty", "author_id": 112820, "author_username": "blin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-31T10:47:00.853985Z", "published_at": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T07:59:57.238664Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, 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"html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7599, "title": "Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-07-31T10:47:00.853985Z", "open_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Peter Zeihan in “The Accidental Superpower” predicts that the USA will withdraw from acting as the world police, this can be interpreted as the USA withdrawing from one or more of its current mutual defence treaties.\n\nCurrently the USA is party to 6 mutual defence treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if a credible source reports completion of a process for the USA to withdraw from any of the following treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.\n\nThis question resolves positively if a credible source reports that the USA withdrew military or financial support from any of the above treaties without following the process of withdrawal outlined in the relevant treaties for a continuous period of one year.\n\nIf a sufficient number of parties to any of the above treaties (other than the USA) withdraws (as above) for the treaty to be dissolved, this does not count towards a positive resolution. For example see Southeast Asia Treaty which dissolved in 1977 after France and Pakistan withdrew.\n\nResolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States. (copied verbatim from [Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7599, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763637962.510848, "end_time": 1763940132.67737, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763637962.510848, "end_time": 1763940132.67737, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.2378260884810264 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06984569336479438, 0.0, 0.24582773872283623, 0.0, 0.8085032054094048, 0.8537419995997547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02802391257647418, 0.0, 0.052917423781649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5274808217178557, 0.0, 0.4337183691184219, 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"forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7598, "title": "Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-07-31T03:40:22.403967Z", "open_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-14T20:56:05.809594Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-14T20:56:05.809594Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-26T14:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-26T14:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-26T14:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) is a fact checker [founded](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-startup-develops-the-ultimate-truth-machine-1.5457688) by [Saar Wilf](https://twitter.com/saarwilf/with_replies). Rootclaim is offering a bet to see if someone can win a debate on [some ](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/)[of](https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/) its conclusions. No one has taken any of the challenges yet.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if before 2025, Rootclaim or its representatives indicate (on its [website](rootclaim.com), social media, or elsewhere) that someone has taken up the Rootclaim challenge, and it is not retracted before that time", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7598, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703286642.357652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703286642.357652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.705706837567727 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003750798840222434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03355904935421398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.07128274001026091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01542797475028349, 0.031167730765351703, 0.0, 0.13947481227934058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16955555873279105, 0.025137985516365664, 0.00515416995245163, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 1.1524460694493168, 0.09930252898021946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4385719922209441, 0.39962148407489445, 1.2689868706680267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5195892382144442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008531995357508187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.192016980237738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12233152344487716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28495119657571016, 0.0, 0.7469208418768826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8242124628284468, 0.0, 0.6423888484513706, 0.8655887224229246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.059458994614009 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.014896501069671, "coverage": 0.6747331796458816, "baseline_score": -3.483106221065076, "spot_peer_score": -28.279461174523217, "peer_archived_score": 10.014896501069671, "baseline_archived_score": -3.483106221065076, "spot_peer_archived_score": -28.279461174523217 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700466137.677059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700466137.677059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.20445679342197343, 0.7955432065780266 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) is a fact checker [founded](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-startup-develops-the-ultimate-truth-machine-1.5457688) by [Saar Wilf](https://twitter.com/saarwilf/with_replies). Rootclaim is offering a bet to see if someone can win a debate on [some ](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/)[of](https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/) its conclusions. No one has taken any of the challenges yet." }, { "id": 7597, "title": "Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?", "short_title": "Milton Convicted on Federal Fraud Charges", "url_title": "Milton Convicted on Federal Fraud Charges", "slug": "milton-convicted-on-federal-fraud-charges", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-31T00:38:48.041024Z", "published_at": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.072551Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-10-14T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-14T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7597, "title": "Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-07-31T00:38:48.041024Z", "open_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-17T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-17T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-14T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-10-14T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-10-14T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Trevor Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) is an American [billionaire](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-charges-nikola-founder-trevor-milton-with-lying-investors-2021-07-29/) and the founder and former executive chairman of [Nikola Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Corporation), a publicly-traded American company that presented a number of zero-emission vehicle concepts during the 2016–2020 period.\n\nIn September 2020, Milton resigned from his position as chairman after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Justice began investigating claims that Milton and Nikola committed securities fraud.\n\nIn July 2021, [a federal grand jury charged Milton with three counts of criminal fraud for lying about “nearly all aspects of the business” to bolster stock sales of the electric vehicle start-up,](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/us-prosecutors-charge-trevor-milton-founder-of-electric-carmaker-nikola-with-three-counts-of-fraud.html) according to [an indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1418421/download) (PDF). A brief overview of the allegations is available [here.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-nikola-corporation-ceo-trevor-milton-charged-securities-fraud-scheme)\n\nMilton is charged with two counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud. The securities fraud counts carry maximum penalties of 20 and 25 years in prison, respectively. The wire fraud count carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison. \n\n[Milton was freed by a judge on $100 million bond, after pleading not guilty to charges that he misled investors about the status of the electric-vehicle maker.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google) \n\nUnder terms of his release, he is limited in his movements and barred from contacting investors, other than ones with whom he has a personal relationship. He will live in Utah until his trial.\n\n[“Trevor Milton is innocent,” his lawyers said in a statement. “This is a new low in the government’s efforts to criminalize lawful business conduct. Every executive in America should be horrified.”](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google)\n\nMilton is presumed innocent until proven guilty.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Trevor Milton is convicted of any federal charge of wire fraud or securities fraud relating to Nikola Corporation prior to January 1, 2024. State charges are not covered by this question.\n\nIf no convictions on said charges result before January 1 2024, this question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7597, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1666931494.649371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8733745499922234 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1666931494.649371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8733745499922234 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12662545000777659, 0.8733745499922234 ], "means": [ 0.8464434486413916 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.28348981325350703, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.5414109223414629, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.15214964510304518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.10935146606128429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6189035256113913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4700931290231667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 1.3023553122020086, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 1.0011290007917808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 1.660614530849387 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.047744585769634924, "coverage": 0.48971723070283, "baseline_score": 21.28738072141203, "spot_peer_score": 15.269168612682064, "peer_archived_score": -0.047744585769634924, "baseline_archived_score": 21.28738072141203, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.269168612682064 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1665647797.712324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1665647797.712324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.27732346276242925, 0.7226765372375707 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Trevor Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) is an American [billionaire](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-charges-nikola-founder-trevor-milton-with-lying-investors-2021-07-29/) and the founder and former executive chairman of [Nikola Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Corporation), a publicly-traded American company that presented a number of zero-emission vehicle concepts during the 2016–2020 period.\n\nIn September 2020, Milton resigned from his position as chairman after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Justice began investigating claims that Milton and Nikola committed securities fraud.\n\nIn July 2021, [a federal grand jury charged Milton with three counts of criminal fraud for lying about “nearly all aspects of the business” to bolster stock sales of the electric vehicle start-up,](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/us-prosecutors-charge-trevor-milton-founder-of-electric-carmaker-nikola-with-three-counts-of-fraud.html) according to [an indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1418421/download) (PDF). A brief overview of the allegations is available [here.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-nikola-corporation-ceo-trevor-milton-charged-securities-fraud-scheme)\n\nMilton is charged with two counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud. The securities fraud counts carry maximum penalties of 20 and 25 years in prison, respectively. The wire fraud count carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison. \n\n[Milton was freed by a judge on $100 million bond, after pleading not guilty to charges that he misled investors about the status of the electric-vehicle maker.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google) \n\nUnder terms of his release, he is limited in his movements and barred from contacting investors, other than ones with whom he has a personal relationship. He will live in Utah until his trial.\n\n[“Trevor Milton is innocent,” his lawyers said in a statement. “This is a new low in the government’s efforts to criminalize lawful business conduct. Every executive in America should be horrified.”](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google)\n\nMilton is presumed innocent until proven guilty." }, { "id": 7591, "title": "Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?", "short_title": "Ghouta Chemical Attack", "url_title": "Ghouta Chemical Attack", "slug": "ghouta-chemical-attack", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-29T02:45:25.695312Z", "published_at": "2021-08-17T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T11:44:01.976600Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-17T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-08-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-08-21T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-08-17T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7591, "title": "Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?", "created_at": "2021-07-29T02:45:25.695312Z", "open_time": "2021-08-17T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-19T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-19T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-08-21T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-08-21T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-08-21T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 2013 Ghouta chemical attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghouta_chemical_attack) during the [Syrian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) was the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran-Iraq war. Intelligence agencies of Israel, the UK, the US, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad was most likely responsible for the attacks. Russia by contrast blamed an opposition group.\n\nThe fact-checking website [Rootclaim's](https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013) analysis concluded there was a 96% probability the rebel group Liwa al-Islam perpetrated the attack, and Rootclaim [offered](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/) a [100,000 dollar challenge](https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge) on this topic.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on or before August 21, 2033 (20 years after the Ghouta chemical attack), three major mainstream American news outlets run an article suggesting that the Syrian government may not have carried out the Ghouta chemical attack, and at least one author of each of the articles believes that there is a more than 50% probability that the Syrian government did not carry out the attack. Otherwise this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "A year is given to make sure we know the author's opinions. The article cannot be an op-ed; it has to be reporting. A \"major mainstream news outlet\" refers to one of the following:\n\n- ABC News\n- CBS News\n- CNN\t\n- MSNBC\n- NBC News\t\n- The New York Times\t\n- The Washington Post\t\n- Bloomberg\t\n- NPR\t\n- The New Yorker", "post_id": 7591, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762732315.866576, "end_time": 1769489519.002167, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762732315.866576, "end_time": 1769489519.002167, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.5022605802234826 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.9386262879179792, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.9263935079848017, 1.0020633396701253, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 1.2886210528458075, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287716.697293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287716.697293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7079543922954591, 0.2920456077045409 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 121, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 2013 Ghouta chemical attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghouta_chemical_attack) during the [Syrian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) was the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran-Iraq war. Intelligence agencies of Israel, the UK, the US, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad was most likely responsible for the attacks. Russia by contrast blamed an opposition group.\n\nThe fact-checking website [Rootclaim's](https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013) analysis concluded there was a 96% probability the rebel group Liwa al-Islam perpetrated the attack, and Rootclaim [offered](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/) a [100,000 dollar challenge](https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge) on this topic." }, { "id": 7578, "title": "Will the Supreme Court hear Harvard vs SFFA by 2030?", "short_title": "Harvard vs SFFA in Supreme Court", "url_title": "Harvard vs SFFA in Supreme Court", "slug": "harvard-vs-sffa-in-supreme-court", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-25T23:54:15.259258Z", "published_at": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.826067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-24T17:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-24T17:31:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7578, "title": "Will the Supreme Court hear Harvard vs SFFA by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-07-25T23:54:15.259258Z", "open_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-24T17:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-24T17:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-24T17:31:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions) is [suing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions_v._President_and_Fellows_of_Harvard_College) [Harvard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) for its admissions policies against Asian Americans and has [petitioned](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2021/2/25/sffa-scotus-petition/) the US Supreme Court to hear the case. On June 14, the Supreme Court [invited the Acting Solicitor General](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/061421zor_6j36.pdf) to file a brief in the case.\n\nWill the US Supreme Court begin hearing Harvard vs SFFA before 2030?", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve in the positive if, before 2030, an [order list on the Supreme Court website](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/ordersofthecourt/) indicates that certioriari is granted to Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College, or a successor case comprised of the merger of this case with other cases. Otherwise, it resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7578, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643044938.125209, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643044938.125209, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.695813984067631 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06825837252413955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038586475818220903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03913203907098744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7922460993238396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11096509564589224, 0.0, 0.622385440242739, 0.0876562031162544, 0.9937843683500358, 0.05224102104996991, 0.5726740774817343, 0.3387106655292126, 0.34783134605512744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01851233404845965, 0.7505438185211369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04535037156571558, 0.01328166791512114, 0.028511763448086522, 0.44104279210313707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5916373276211015, 0.0, 0.675012195184357, 0.0200067169715049, 0.0, 0.44358054667768915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40633218071331956, 0.005838829315397701, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8570026340065788, 0.0, 0.2106750195973517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7316591424190335, 1.354269182700767 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.8778381212218408, "coverage": 0.05367635631760565, "baseline_score": 1.133339410264953, "spot_peer_score": 53.4353931739519, "peer_archived_score": 0.8778381212218408, "baseline_archived_score": 1.133339410264953, "spot_peer_archived_score": 53.4353931739519 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643044938.169026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643044938.169026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3663343940376049, 0.6336656059623951 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions) is [suing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions_v._President_and_Fellows_of_Harvard_College) [Harvard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) for its admissions policies against Asian Americans and has [petitioned](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2021/2/25/sffa-scotus-petition/) the US Supreme Court to hear the case. On June 14, the Supreme Court [invited the Acting Solicitor General](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/061421zor_6j36.pdf) to file a brief in the case.\n\nWill the US Supreme Court begin hearing Harvard vs SFFA before 2030?" } ] }
