Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4780
{ "count": 6394, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4800", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4760", "results": [ { "id": 7575, "title": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?", "short_title": "2024 Taiwanese presidential election", "url_title": "2024 Taiwanese presidential election", "slug": "2024-taiwanese-presidential-election", "author_id": 104694, "author_username": "metani", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-25T19:45:22.595274Z", "published_at": "2021-07-28T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.527404Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-28T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-13T14:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-13T14:52:00Z", "open_time": "2021-07-28T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "๐ณ๏ธ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7575, "title": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?", "created_at": "2021-07-25T19:45:22.595274Z", "open_time": "2021-07-28T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-30T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-30T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-13T14:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-13T14:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-13T14:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As one of the most successful market democracies in Asia, Taiwan faces geopolitical challenges from PRC due to its longstanding territorial claim over the island and threat of military invasion/annexation. Relatedly, a consistent divide in Taiwanese politics has been the attitude towards reunification. \n\nThe \"Pan-Blue\" coalition led by the Kuomintang (KMT) is sympathetic to some version of integration or reunification, whereas the incumbent \"Pan-Green\" coalition led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in favor of Taiwanese independence. [The next presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election) will have implications for cross-strait relations, US-China relations, and the future of Taiwanese sovereignty.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positive if a candidate nominated by the DPP wins the presidential election, according to the Central Election Commission or other reputable media sources", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7575, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703800745.131289, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703800745.131289, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41000000000000003, 0.59 ], "means": [ 0.6106252332901986 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33953082659674816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4273870684649609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16098235374781072, 0.08346609532897402, 0.0, 0.3138753164782079, 0.2101499601500312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009514982201565289, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6621607275305496, 0.8738508717282191, 0.37565785366946514, 2.0522650536838074, 0.07544621294165546, 0.0, 0.2674291063988385, 0.4883380121491898, 0.0052619857942816685, 0.013286097205509028, 0.09797143211179751, 0.043962607759905424, 0.5277376214362824, 0.22688437022518046, 0.0, 1.1454403735536047, 0.0, 0.31336957921214814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4511338655573707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7616925955377141, 0.0391375041447012, 0.9689706780451418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004155532194542278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5338394326564748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -2.0149098569056267, "coverage": 0.9998013299022235, "baseline_score": 28.238465358241612, "spot_peer_score": -2.762921993525601, "peer_archived_score": -2.0149098569056267, "baseline_archived_score": 28.238465358241612, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.762921993525601 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704094684.259306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704094684.259306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3078159107442705, 0.6921840892557295 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 170, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As one of the most successful market democracies in Asia, Taiwan faces geopolitical challenges from PRC due to its longstanding territorial claim over the island and threat of military invasion/annexation. Relatedly, a consistent divide in Taiwanese politics has been the attitude towards reunification. \n\nThe \"Pan-Blue\" coalition led by the Kuomintang (KMT) is sympathetic to some version of integration or reunification, whereas the incumbent \"Pan-Green\" coalition led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in favor of Taiwanese independence. [The next presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election) will have implications for cross-strait relations, US-China relations, and the future of Taiwanese sovereignty." }, { "id": 7569, "title": "Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?", "short_title": "Peak deaths from โ wave worse in UK or US?", "url_title": "Peak deaths from โ wave worse in UK or US?", "slug": "peak-deaths-from-wave-worse-in-uk-or-us", "author_id": 109983, "author_username": "CullenOKeefe", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-24T00:25:44.989502Z", "published_at": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.669848Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:04:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "๐งฌ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "๐ฆ ", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7569, "title": "Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?", "created_at": "2021-07-24T00:25:44.989502Z", "open_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-05T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T21:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Delta variant](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Delta+variant+%28share%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR) is fueling resurgences of COVID cases in the [UK and the US](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR). The UK's case rate has spiked back to near its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic, while the US's rates are ominously rising after a vaccine-fueled decline. \n\nThis question asks which country will have a worse initial Delta Wave of COVID (as defined in the fine print).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the peak daily number of reported deaths per million from COVID in the UK, using a 7-day rolling average, between July 1, 2021 and the end of the Delta Wave (as defined in the fine print) is greater than the same for the US.\n\nAll data for resolving this question shall be drawn from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-07-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this bet, we will define the beginning of the \"Delta Wave\" to have begun on July 1 for each country.\n\nThe Delta Wave of each respective country shall be deemed to end at the earliest of the following:\n\n1. The Delta variant (including any lineages descended from the Delta variant) no longer comprises the majority of cases in the country.\n2. The 7-day rolling average of reported daily deaths per million stays below 50% of a previously observed peak during the Delta Wave for 30 consecutive days.\n3. The end of the year 2021.\n\nNote that the Delta Wave of each country may end at different times, and the relevant comparison is between the maximum number of deaths in each country's respective Wave, even if the Waves end at different times.", "post_id": 7569, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630477673.887604, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630477673.887604, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.17763676931955427 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3188535044522034, 0.2300516232849857, 0.7304674649342213, 0.7852188658668618, 0.0, 0.8163767292426851, 0.05724278302464458, 1.2853366868498086, 0.6104228132231739, 0.9820559118295085, 0.22688274022386357, 0.0, 0.07555473386203065, 0.11064264398533052, 0.1751732796751412, 1.940233934556104, 0.3235495858073233, 0.04232921962320499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.030314528419522604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8520233747574918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2403700099395794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02075297689962095, 0.0978269360296038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15685721197324565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04939379203556264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.847390865524094, "coverage": 0.9939907406115831, "baseline_score": 69.76542745000677, "spot_peer_score": 66.44690681126777, "peer_archived_score": 9.847390865524094, "baseline_archived_score": 69.76542745000677, "spot_peer_archived_score": 66.44690681126777 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630477673.9052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630477673.9052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9150749228191702, 0.08492507718082978 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Delta variant](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Delta+variant+%28share%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR) is fueling resurgences of COVID cases in the [UK and the US](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR). The UK's case rate has spiked back to near its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic, while the US's rates are ominously rising after a vaccine-fueled decline. \n\nThis question asks which country will have a worse initial Delta Wave of COVID (as defined in the fine print)." }, { "id": 7565, "title": "Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?", "short_title": "Recurring lockdowns during 2030-2050", "url_title": "Recurring lockdowns during 2030-2050", "slug": "recurring-lockdowns-during-2030-2050", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-23T02:39:30.205830Z", "published_at": "2021-07-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T00:51:10.963801Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-06-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-07-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "๐งฌ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "๐ฆ ", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7565, "title": "Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?", "created_at": "2021-07-23T02:39:30.205830Z", "open_time": "2021-07-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-27T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-06-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-06-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockdown),\n\n> A lockdown is a restriction policy for people or community to stay where they are, usually due to specific risks to themselves or to others if they can move and interact freely. The term \"stay-at-home\" or \"shelter-in-place\" is often used for lockdowns that affect an area, rather than specific locations. [...]\n\n> During the COVID-19 pandemic, the term lockdown was used for actions related to mass quarantines or stay-at-home orders. The first lockdown during the pandemic was implemented in Wuhan on January 23, 2020. By early April 2020, 3.9 billion people worldwide were under some form of lockdownโmore than half the world's population. By late April, around 300 million people were under lockdown in nations of Europe, while around 200 million people were under lockdown in Latin America. Nearly 300 million people, or about 90 per cent of the population, were under some form of lockdown in the United States, and 1.3 billion people have been under lockdown in India.\n\nThe COVID-19 lockdowns were unique in global history. Before, quarantines were more localized, and stay-at-home orders were rare, owing to the fact that most people could not work from home. The rise of internet work has enabled stay-at-home orders. \n\nNatural viral spillover events are [common](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2546865/) and may be becoming more common as the human population rises. Furthermore, the [stupendous fall of deaths from infectious disease](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Trends-in-infectious-disease-mortality-in-the-the-Armstrong-Conn/81ae570a2f918efc8a0763490dc56086531076fc/figure/0) has arguably lowered humanity's threshold for the type of infectious event considered worthy of lockdown as a means of prevention.\n\nDuring the mid 21st century, it may become possible for small groups to artificially engineer viruses using new techniques like [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR). Deepmind's recent [open-sourcing of AlphaFold 2](https://deepmind.com/research/open-source/alphafold) and [its predictions](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03828-1) is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of biology, which may ultimately end up being used for detrimental purposes. This question asks about a secondary effect from viruses in the 21st century: will we keep going on lockdown?", "resolution_criteria": "Lockdowns are said to be \"recurring\" during the period 2030-2050 if any of the following become true during that time period,\n\n* At least three separate virus species, according to the [ICTV classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_classification) of viruses, are reported to have triggered at least three separate global lockdown events, defined as events in which at least 50% of the world population simultaneously live under stay-at-home orders for some period of time.\n\n* During at least five separate incidents, it is not possible to see an in-person [Broadway Show](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadway_theatre) in New York City due to stay-at-home orders in New York City as a result of a viral event. An incident is said to be separate if Broadway theaters lifted restrictions for some time, before being mandated again.\n\n* The Summer Olympic Games OR Winter Olympic Games are rescheduled at least three times as a result of viral related events.", "fine_print": "Disputes related to question wording will be determined using admin discretion.", "post_id": 7565, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762089838.218009, "end_time": 1764858582.338289, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.299 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762089838.218009, "end_time": 1764858582.338289, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.299 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7010000000000001, 0.299 ], "means": [ 0.3217261842180122 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3067049910183091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3079282342958656, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.8807190051633872, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287945.4112, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287945.4112, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.873532053014617, 0.12646794698538302 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockdown),\n\n> A lockdown is a restriction policy for people or community to stay where they are, usually due to specific risks to themselves or to others if they can move and interact freely. The term \"stay-at-home\" or \"shelter-in-place\" is often used for lockdowns that affect an area, rather than specific locations. [...]\n\n> During the COVID-19 pandemic, the term lockdown was used for actions related to mass quarantines or stay-at-home orders. The first lockdown during the pandemic was implemented in Wuhan on January 23, 2020. By early April 2020, 3.9 billion people worldwide were under some form of lockdownโmore than half the world's population. By late April, around 300 million people were under lockdown in nations of Europe, while around 200 million people were under lockdown in Latin America. Nearly 300 million people, or about 90 per cent of the population, were under some form of lockdown in the United States, and 1.3 billion people have been under lockdown in India.\n\nThe COVID-19 lockdowns were unique in global history. Before, quarantines were more localized, and stay-at-home orders were rare, owing to the fact that most people could not work from home. The rise of internet work has enabled stay-at-home orders. \n\nNatural viral spillover events are [common](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2546865/) and may be becoming more common as the human population rises. Furthermore, the [stupendous fall of deaths from infectious disease](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Trends-in-infectious-disease-mortality-in-the-the-Armstrong-Conn/81ae570a2f918efc8a0763490dc56086531076fc/figure/0) has arguably lowered humanity's threshold for the type of infectious event considered worthy of lockdown as a means of prevention.\n\nDuring the mid 21st century, it may become possible for small groups to artificially engineer viruses using new techniques like [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR). Deepmind's recent [open-sourcing of AlphaFold 2](https://deepmind.com/research/open-source/alphafold) and [its predictions](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03828-1) is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of biology, which may ultimately end up being used for detrimental purposes. This question asks about a secondary effect from viruses in the 21st century: will we keep going on lockdown?" }, { "id": 7556, "title": "[Short Fuse]: Will the Yihetan Dam collapse, killing at least 1,000 people, before September 1 2021?", "short_title": "Will Yihetan Dam collapse before Sept 1 2021?", "url_title": "Will Yihetan Dam collapse before Sept 1 2021?", "slug": "will-yihetan-dam-collapse-before-sept-1-2021", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-20T19:50:38.259465Z", "published_at": "2021-07-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.055217Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-23T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-07-26T15:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-26T15:34:00Z", "open_time": "2021-07-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7556, "title": "[Short Fuse]: Will the Yihetan Dam collapse, killing at least 1,000 people, before September 1 2021?", "created_at": "2021-07-20T19:50:38.259465Z", "open_time": "2021-07-23T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-24T02:46:12.350537Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-24T02:46:12.350537Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-26T15:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-26T15:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-26T15:34:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [a July 21 report from Singapore's Channel News Asia](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/chinese-army-warns-dam-battered-by-storms-could-collapse-15257186):\n\n>The Chinese army warned that a stricken dam in the centre of the country \"could collapse at any time\" after being severely damaged in torrential storms that killed at least three people and brought the region to a standstill.\n\n>Weather authorities have issued the highest warning level for central Henan province as downpours caused widespread disruption and the evacuation of residents of flooded streets.\n\n>On Tuesday evening the regional unit of the People's Liberation Army warned that the relentless downpour had caused a 20-meter breach in the Yihetan dam in Luoyang - a city of around seven million people - with the risk that it \"may collapse at any time.\"\n\n>The PLA's Central Theater Command said it had sent soldiers to carry out an emergency response including blasting and flood diversion.\n\n>\"On Jul 20, a 20m breach occurred at the Yihetan dam .... the riverbank was severely damaged and the dam may collapse at any time,\" it said in the statement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before 00:00 UTC on September 1 2021, it is reported that the Yihetan dam has partially or fully collapsed, leading to flooding that causes the deaths of at least 1,000 people. The collapse must occur before September 1 in order for a positive resolution. If the dam does collapse, the death toll as of two weeks after the collapse should be considered. If this equals or exceeds 1,000 people, the question resolves positively. People listed as \"missing\" will not be considered dead", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7556, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627216178.142352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627216178.142352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.19281756526500787 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.972087315744694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11155005983376856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627286927.469641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627286927.469641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9839245793443108, 0.01607542065568927 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [a July 21 report from Singapore's Channel News Asia](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/chinese-army-warns-dam-battered-by-storms-could-collapse-15257186):\n\n>The Chinese army warned that a stricken dam in the centre of the country \"could collapse at any time\" after being severely damaged in torrential storms that killed at least three people and brought the region to a standstill.\n\n>Weather authorities have issued the highest warning level for central Henan province as downpours caused widespread disruption and the evacuation of residents of flooded streets.\n\n>On Tuesday evening the regional unit of the People's Liberation Army warned that the relentless downpour had caused a 20-meter breach in the Yihetan dam in Luoyang - a city of around seven million people - with the risk that it \"may collapse at any time.\"\n\n>The PLA's Central Theater Command said it had sent soldiers to carry out an emergency response including blasting and flood diversion.\n\n>\"On Jul 20, a 20m breach occurred at the Yihetan dam .... the riverbank was severely damaged and the dam may collapse at any time,\" it said in the statement." }, { "id": 7554, "title": "Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?", "short_title": ">6k US COVID daily hospitalizations by 2022", "url_title": ">6k US COVID daily hospitalizations by 2022", "slug": "6k-us-covid-daily-hospitalizations-by-2022", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-19T21:19:29.670874Z", "published_at": "2021-07-20T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.545280Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-20T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-07-31T20:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-31T20:26:00Z", "open_time": "2021-07-20T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "๐งฌ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "๐ฆ ", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7554, "title": "Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?", "created_at": "2021-07-19T21:19:29.670874Z", "open_time": "2021-07-20T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-20T16:17:03.346313Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-20T16:17:03.346313Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-31T20:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-31T20:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-31T20:26:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases โ likely in large part because of the [more-transmissible](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf) Delta variant becoming [predominant](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/07/health/delta-variant-cdc.html). The extent to which this increase in cases will translate to a comparable increase in hospitalizations is of interest given the [higher vaccination rate of older age groups](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\n\nThe 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations [last exceeded 6000 on 26 February 2021](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point between 20 July 2021 and 1 January 2022 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations is greater than 6000. The source will be CDC's official count of [new daily COVID-19 hospitalizations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions). 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The extent to which this increase in cases will translate to a comparable increase in deaths is of interest given the [higher vaccination rate of older age groups](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\n\nThe 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 deaths [last exceeded 1000 on 13 March 2021](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point between 20 July 2021 and 1 January 2022 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths is greater than 1000. The source will be CDC's official count of [COVID-19 deaths](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths). 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The extent to which this increase in cases will translate to a comparable increase in deaths is of interest given the [higher vaccination rate of older age groups](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\n\nThe 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 deaths [last exceeded 1000 on 13 March 2021](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths)." }, { "id": 7552, "title": "Will the Confederate monument on Stone Mountain be defaced or destroyed before 2035?", "short_title": "Stone Mountain Defaced before 2035", "url_title": "Stone Mountain Defaced before 2035", "slug": "stone-mountain-defaced-before-2035", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-19T15:36:51.738178Z", "published_at": "2021-10-23T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T21:35:00.343761Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-23T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-10-23T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7552, "title": "Will the Confederate monument on Stone Mountain be defaced or destroyed before 2035?", "created_at": "2021-07-19T15:36:51.738178Z", "open_time": "2021-10-23T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-25T00:02:43.321148Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-25T00:02:43.321148Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Stone Mountain](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/what-will-happen-stone-mountain-americas-largest-confederate-memorial-180964588/) in DeKalb County, Georgia, features the largest Confederate memorial anywhere. At roughly 25 by 60 meters, the monument is also the largest bas-relief carving in the world. It depicts Confederate President Jefferson Davis and his generals Robert E. Lee and \"Stonewall\" Jackson heroically on horseback.\n\nAfter the Charlottesville rally of 2017, and especially after the George Floyd protests of 2020, [removals and defacements of Confederate monuments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials) in the United States accelerated. Democratic candidate for Georgia governor Stacy Abrams has called Stone Mountain \"a blight on our state [that] should be removed,\" while Republican Governor Brian Kemp has pledged to \"protect Stone Mountain and historical monuments in Georgia from the radical left.\"\n\n***Will the Stone Mountain Confederate monument be defaced or destroyed before 2035?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the Confederate relief on Stone Mountain is destroyed, or defaced by irreversibly removing stone, before January 1, 2035. It must be defaced sufficiently such that damage is readily identifiable when the monument is viewed from a distance, or in a 1 megapixel photograph depicting the entire carved area.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7552, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761357453.370648, "end_time": 1764283866.442712, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761357453.370648, "end_time": 1764283866.442712, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4459668210854976 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288643.437494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 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Many of these documents relate to political or diplomatic affairs. As of this writing few have been deciphered as previously only slow and laborious manual methods were available. \n\nAs modern methods and technology are just beginning to allow automated decipherment of these documents, there exists the possibility of finding new information that may revise our understanding of historical, and maybe historic, events.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one peer-reviewed research paper proposes a revised version of a currently accepted historical event or events based entirely or substantially on information from an automatically deciphered manuscript or manuscripts AND the event(s) in question are considered to be of non-trivial historic significance as reported by at least 2 credible media sources. This combined standard is intended to ensure that only significant historical revisions qualify. The intent is that the threshold for significance will be fairly low, for example if two credible media sources characterize it as a significant revision to a previous understanding of history but several other credible sources characterize it as trivial this still resolves positively. If by 2055 it is unclear whether one or more potentially qualifying events should count as non-trivial, admins may use their discretion to determine the significance of the events or resolve the question ambiguously.\n\nAutomatic decipherment means that automated processes initially deciphered the text. \n\nFor resolution purposes, manuscript means a handwritten document from any time before the 20th century that contains ciphertext. The ciphertext must be undeciphered at the point this question opens to resolve. The history-changing information used to satisfy the resolution criteria must be contained within the ciphertext.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if nothing qualifies by January 1, 2055. Unknown languages that are not otherwise enciphered do not qualify.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7551, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759169831.834931, "end_time": 1768204666.612826, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.715 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759169831.834931, "end_time": 1768204666.612826, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.715 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7370603854685559 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5915086375725582, 0.0, 0.041314330922520195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11855578058059343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009167091186681414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.3634464003638125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011348003115516677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06818282742296448, 0.6325848724825646, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0162500710212266, 0.6392481672365632, 0.0, 0.28045304072399985, 0.0, 1.7916784580027207, 1.3863612854573046, 0.6902063238793004, 0.6667901660360125, 0.0, 1.9184714135104393, 0.053493066571363594, 0.3952632697996375, 0.0, 0.11223213844494925, 0.0, 0.1314375106214734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1292854289889096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24223667955462158 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288816.334876, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288816.334876, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3091418558781508, 0.6908581441218492 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 154, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[A large number of undeciphered, encrypted handwritten documents exist in historical archives](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01611194.2020.1716410), particularly from the late middle ages to the early 1800s. Many of these documents relate to political or diplomatic affairs. As of this writing few have been deciphered as previously only slow and laborious manual methods were available. \n\nAs modern methods and technology are just beginning to allow automated decipherment of these documents, there exists the possibility of finding new information that may revise our understanding of historical, and maybe historic, events." }, { "id": 7550, "title": "Is the sunflower conjecture true?", "short_title": "Truth of the Sunflower Conjecture", "url_title": "Truth of the Sunflower Conjecture", "slug": "truth-of-the-sunflower-conjecture", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-19T07:05:30.967883Z", "published_at": "2021-08-07T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:36:09.311863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-07T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-08-07T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "๐ป", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7550, "title": "Is the sunflower conjecture true?", "created_at": "2021-07-19T07:05:30.967883Z", "open_time": "2021-08-07T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-09T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-09T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "One of [Paul Erdลs'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_(mathematics)) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdลs offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \n\nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size \\(n\\) are necessary before there are some \\(3\\) whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form \\( \\log(n)^{n(1+o(1))} \\); see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound \\(c^n\\) for some constant \\(c\\).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving the sunflower conjecture. \n\nIt will resolve as **No** in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal disproving the sunflower conjecture.\n\nIf there is no such proof by January 1, 2300, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by January 1, 2300, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.", "fine_print": "[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-08 : changed the resolution date from 2121 to 2300.", "post_id": 7550, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757471758.860346, "end_time": 1789007758.687, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757471758.860346, "end_time": 1789007758.687, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6439801006766014 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7839878846755386, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.6136849121228423, 1.4352199686863503, 0.08591921520153545, 0.17421269069092077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.570987564786579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287449.781247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287449.781247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.40480598474942353, 0.5951940152505765 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "One of [Paul Erdลs'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_(mathematics)) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdลs offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \n\nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size \\(n\\) are necessary before there are some \\(3\\) whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form \\( \\log(n)^{n(1+o(1))} \\); see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound \\(c^n\\) for some constant \\(c\\)." }, { "id": 7549, "title": "Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?", "short_title": "Resolution of the Sunflower Conjecture", "url_title": "Resolution of the Sunflower Conjecture", "slug": "resolution-of-the-sunflower-conjecture", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-19T07:05:14.596222Z", "published_at": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:36:05.664687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "๐ป", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7549, "title": "Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?", "created_at": "2021-07-19T07:05:14.596222Z", "open_time": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-31T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "One of [Paul Erdลs'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_(mathematics)) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdลs offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \n\nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size \\(n\\) are necessary before there are some \\(3\\) whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form \\( \\log(n)^{n(1+o(1))} \\); see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound \\(c^n\\) for some constant \\(c\\).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal resolving the sunflower conjecture. \nIf there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. 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Erdลs offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \n\nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size \\(n\\) are necessary before there are some \\(3\\) whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form \\( \\log(n)^{n(1+o(1))} \\); see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound \\(c^n\\) for some constant \\(c\\)." }, { "id": 7547, "title": "Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US before 2041?", "short_title": "Livestock Farming Ban by 2041", "url_title": "Livestock Farming Ban by 2041", "slug": "livestock-farming-ban-by-2041", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-18T21:19:03.709996Z", "published_at": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T18:56:48.997391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 123, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7547, "title": "Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US before 2041?", "created_at": "2021-07-18T21:19:03.709996Z", "open_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-02T00:17:45.720490Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-02T00:17:45.720490Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2040/)\n\n----\n\n[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming.\n\nThis question is more narrow in scope, and asks if commercial farming of pigs, chickens and cows for meat will be banned by 2041 (so farming for eggs and dairy are not included in this scope).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial farming of pigs, chickens and cows for their meat before December 31, 2040", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7547, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762609206.232401, "end_time": 1763845122.950845, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762609206.232401, "end_time": 1763845122.950845, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02357485265619212 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.1065038766835675, 9.707673250165263, 1.5046279190599274, 0.9933809503221863, 0.33329450001082583, 1.073689108053291, 0.012683592249490026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47649686416159226, 1.0116883896570457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2521692215981381, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00797667012471857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287810.599937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287810.599937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9985256018068878, 0.001474398193112291 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 253, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2040/)\n\n----\n\n[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming.\n\nThis question is more narrow in scope, and asks if commercial farming of pigs, chickens and cows for meat will be banned by 2041 (so farming for eggs and dairy are not included in this scope)." }, { "id": 7544, "title": "Will Prรณspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?", "short_title": "Prรณspera at 10,000 residents before 2035?", "url_title": "Prรณspera at 10,000 residents before 2035?", "slug": "prospera-at-10000-residents-before-2035", "author_id": 118844, "author_username": "moscars", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-17T23:33:59.048891Z", "published_at": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T21:19:46.753448Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7544, "title": "Will Prรณspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?", "created_at": "2021-07-17T23:33:59.048891Z", "open_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Prรณspera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pr%C3%B3spera) is a private charter city and [ZEDE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_for_Employment_and_Economic_Development_(Honduras)) (Zone for Employment and Economic Development) on the island of Roatรกn in Honduras. \n\nThe project aims to attract both Hondurans and internationals by (among other things) being business-friendly, having the lowest taxes in the world and having a special legal system where residents can choose much of the legal code that they individually live under.\n\nAccording to [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera), Prรณspera expects 10,000 residents by 2025.\n\nPrรณspera currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent residents.\n\nPredict the population in 2035 in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Prรณspera, or the same entity with a different name, at any point before 2035 reports that it has 10,000 or more residents.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, e-residents do not count as residents. Only people living on land managed by Prรณspera do.\n\nIf Prรณspera does not publish population data and such data is not available even upon request, then this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7544, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763500776.608019, "end_time": 1764517225.831401, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763500776.608019, "end_time": 1764517225.831401, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07110471539171888 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8352107823063155, 0.5403792220327579, 0.11919235601565477, 0.8249150654529263, 2.8154035581875734, 2.2678670623709873, 0.4107652489124788, 0.9777018428390967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03493560780589553, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06833212923320346, 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"means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 248, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Prรณspera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pr%C3%B3spera) is a private charter city and [ZEDE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_for_Employment_and_Economic_Development_(Honduras)) (Zone for Employment and Economic Development) on the island of Roatรกn in Honduras. \n\nThe project aims to attract both Hondurans and internationals by (among other things) being business-friendly, having the lowest taxes in the world and having a special legal system where residents can choose much of the legal code that they individually live under.\n\nAccording to [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera), Prรณspera expects 10,000 residents by 2025.\n\nPrรณspera currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent residents.\n\nPredict the population in 2035 in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/)." }, { "id": 7542, "title": "Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?", "short_title": "Over 200k US COVID daily cases by 2022", "url_title": "Over 200k US COVID daily cases by 2022", "slug": "over-200k-us-covid-daily-cases-by-2022", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-17T17:47:25.607387Z", "published_at": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.096251Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-31T15:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-31T15:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-25T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-25T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "๐งฌ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "๐ฆ ", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7542, "title": "Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2021-07-17T17:47:25.607387Z", "open_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-19T11:38:57.918326Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-19T11:38:57.918326Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-25T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-25T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-25T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-31T15:18:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-31T15:18:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n[Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7524/over-100k-cases-by-2022/)\n\n----\n\nThe US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\".\n\n***Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day rolling average) before January 1, 2022?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if at any point between 2021-07-01 to 2022-01-01 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 cases is greater than 200,000. The source will be [CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases), unless Metaculus Admins determine there is a significantly superior source of data.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7542, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630404970.14959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630404970.14959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5491717040655486 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.03188136642829896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017990599509988367, 0.0, 0.0014557515078758613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7732176109728021, 0.0, 0.8144786686358294, 0.0, 0.0, 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"title": "Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?", "short_title": "250 deaths/day in UK third wave?", "url_title": "250 deaths/day in UK third wave?", "slug": "250-deathsday-in-uk-third-wave", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-16T13:20:04.312385Z", "published_at": "2021-07-18T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.876406Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-18T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-30T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-30T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:59:00Z", "open_time": "2021-07-18T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 116, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, 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"resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The UK has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". The second wave of the pandemic proved more deadly than the first, reaching a peak of over 1200 deaths/day, however 85% of the UK's adult population has now received at least one vaccine dose, and all vaccines appear to be reasonably protective against the Delta variant.\n\nThe UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta. [A previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7494/uk-third-wave/) of this question asked if there would be a third wave, as judged by a measure of 100 deaths a day, and at the time of writing looks likely to resolve positive, with the community median at 80%.\n\nThis question asks:\n\n***Will the UK reach 250 deaths/day again by the end of 2021?***\n\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the **Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date** reported on the dashboard exceed 1750.\n\n\n[fine-print]\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\n\nData updates meaning that more than 1000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7537, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638224206.465544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638224206.465544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.17936102639514015 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5779519803650455, 0.01480350813773926, 0.009631137924904009, 0.8240038221724342, 0.0908589854762394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01750856172981247, 0.5530279226356515, 2.5083494872016354, 1.1982671616420901, 1.015148451197204, 1.1591050156530818, 0.43180706826459736, 1.340751060738702, 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] }, "question": { "id": 7523, "title": "Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?", "created_at": "2021-07-09T05:28:13.714552Z", "open_time": "2021-07-15T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-17T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-17T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, 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Given some n, what is the largest N for which the complete graph on N can have its edges colored red and blue so that there is no monochromatic clique of size n? The lower bound is \\((\\sqrt{2}+o(1))^n\\) and the upper bound is \\((4-o(1))^n\\); see https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251 for the best known upper bound.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving, for some constant \\( \\varepsilon>0 \\), a bound \\( R(n,n)>(\\sqrt{2}+\\varepsilon)^n \\) or \\( R(n,n)<(4-\\varepsilon)^n\\), for all sufficiently large \\(n\\).\n\nIf there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7523, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761005244.018902, "end_time": 1766608339.106752, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.874 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761005244.018902, "end_time": 1766608339.106752, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.874 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.8898602024924317 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287322.467757, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287322.467757, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.14766223118399535, 0.8523377688160046 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "One of the most famous questions in combinatorics is the diagonal Ramsey question. Given some n, what is the largest N for which the complete graph on N can have its edges colored red and blue so that there is no monochromatic clique of size n? The lower bound is \\((\\sqrt{2}+o(1))^n\\) and the upper bound is \\((4-o(1))^n\\); see https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251 for the best known upper bound." }, { "id": 7514, "title": "Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?", "short_title": "Talibans capture Afghan Palace by 2026-09-11", "url_title": "Talibans capture Afghan Palace by 2026-09-11", "slug": "talibans-capture-afghan-palace-by-2026-09-11", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-06T04:04:05.127802Z", "published_at": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.522018Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 165, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-15T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-15T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 159, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7514, "title": "Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?", "created_at": "2021-07-06T04:04:05.127802Z", "open_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-07T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-07T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-15T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-15T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-15T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 2021, U.S. President Biden [announced a plan](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan-september-11-d2c7426736f9f530e0e62f2295a44d28) to remove U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September. As of the time of writing of this question (July 2021), media [reports](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/08/politics/biden-afghanistan-speech/index.html) indicate that the withdrawal is now 90% complete, and should be fully completed by [31 August 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_United_States_troops_from_Afghanistan_(2020%E2%80%932021)). \n\nSince the withdrawal of American military forces began, the Taliban has re-emerged as a significant regional power, taking over large swaths of the country.\n\nIn early July 2021, the Associated Press [reported Taliban advances](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taliban-districts-ne-afghanistan-fleeing-troops-78658014) in several northern districts:\n\n> The Taliban's march through northern Afghanistan gained momentum overnight with the capture of several districts from fleeing Afghan forces, several hundred of whom fled across the border into Tajikistan, officials said Sunday.\n\n\nLater the same month, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/half-all-afghan-district-centers-under-taliban-control-us-general-2021-07-21/) the comment from the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, that Taliban forces currently control 50% of Afghan district centers:\n\n> Milley said more than 200 of the 419 district centers were under Taliban control. Last month, he had said the Taliban controlled 81 district centers in Afghanistan.\n\nIt is currently unclear whether the Taliban will be able to take control of the capital and largest city in Afghanistan, [Kabul](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kabul) (which has an estimated 2021 population of 4.6 million and is the only Afghan city with over 1 million inhabitants), or if their control will be restricted to rural districts. \n\nIt is possible that the Taliban could lay claim to only some of Kabul's [22 districts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kabul#Districts), so rather than asking about Taliban control of the entire city, this question will focus on its potential capture of [ARG, the Presidential Palace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arg_(Kabul)), located within District 2. 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As of the time of writing of this question (July 2021), media [reports](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/08/politics/biden-afghanistan-speech/index.html) indicate that the withdrawal is now 90% complete, and should be fully completed by [31 August 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_United_States_troops_from_Afghanistan_(2020%E2%80%932021)). \n\nSince the withdrawal of American military forces began, the Taliban has re-emerged as a significant regional power, taking over large swaths of the country.\n\nIn early July 2021, the Associated Press [reported Taliban advances](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taliban-districts-ne-afghanistan-fleeing-troops-78658014) in several northern districts:\n\n> The Taliban's march through northern Afghanistan gained momentum overnight with the capture of several districts from fleeing Afghan forces, several hundred of whom fled across the border into Tajikistan, officials said Sunday.\n\n\nLater the same month, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/half-all-afghan-district-centers-under-taliban-control-us-general-2021-07-21/) the comment from the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, that Taliban forces currently control 50% of Afghan district centers:\n\n> Milley said more than 200 of the 419 district centers were under Taliban control. Last month, he had said the Taliban controlled 81 district centers in Afghanistan.\n\nIt is currently unclear whether the Taliban will be able to take control of the capital and largest city in Afghanistan, [Kabul](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kabul) (which has an estimated 2021 population of 4.6 million and is the only Afghan city with over 1 million inhabitants), or if their control will be restricted to rural districts. \n\nIt is possible that the Taliban could lay claim to only some of Kabul's [22 districts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kabul#Districts), so rather than asking about Taliban control of the entire city, this question will focus on its potential capture of [ARG, the Presidential Palace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arg_(Kabul)), located within District 2. ARG houses the offices of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani." }, { "id": 7512, "title": "Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "short_title": "100 Deaths from China/Taiwan Conflict by 2050", "url_title": "100 Deaths from China/Taiwan Conflict by 2050", "slug": "100-deaths-from-chinataiwan-conflict-by-2050", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-05T23:06:51.202641Z", "published_at": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T15:16:04.920237Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 141, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T13:26:37.997366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T13:26:37.997366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7512, "title": "Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "created_at": "2021-07-05T23:06:51.202641Z", "open_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China). [Graham Allison](https://outline.com/qXAaBy) and [The Brookings Institute](www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/understanding-beijings-motives-regarding-taiwan-and-americas-role/) have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering [Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2050, either of the following occurs:\n\n- There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n- There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nThese 100 deaths do not have to occur in the same conflict or the same year; it is sufficient for multiple separate events to reach a total of 100 deaths in this period.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise.\n\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7512, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763330923.446701, "end_time": 1768772055.737809, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763330923.446701, "end_time": 1768772055.737809, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6638700582511146 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2326263513297242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002793133719389214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025474768392577253, 0.5820709885655234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023455588296053762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10004709881872656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7449230802512035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6095488409848416, 0.0, 0.012915580728692883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035218185649616984, 8.62882871469968e-05, 0.9641190475302459, 0.0, 0.0015147494631651901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011897681484995053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01941676900635268, 1.5120672605667078, 0.0, 0.0003418874635918342, 0.0, 0.4064940806002028, 0.05775448461789824, 0.43162798576284456, 0.011569382124807463, 0.08461681491281751, 0.03069029440327037, 1.569483076436732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7316480589573783, 0.739497040691266, 0.2457417084265787, 1.067580365127713, 0.33333168045495576, 0.14292769708292663, 0.973447922117912, 0.0778774474736887, 0.1541696987460438, 0.018145231805054875, 0.13127805624182545, 1.770524612596498, 0.8756012101279371, 0.170989411581081, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0711458170848513, 0.0, 0.8474150367433307, 0.0, 0.02530708346119719, 0.5133745097423406, 0.020764677809577466, 0.6992012327188393, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2852335483021493, 0.6381993542524377, 0.0, 0.4607906561113482, 0.0, 0.007619260256521799, 0.0, 0.004711180847754763, 0.0, 0.8198851654941277 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289812.676319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289812.676319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4050483372860747, 0.5949516627139253 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 424, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China). [Graham Allison](https://outline.com/qXAaBy) and [The Brookings Institute](www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/understanding-beijings-motives-regarding-taiwan-and-americas-role/) have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering [Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan)." }, { "id": 7509, "title": "Will it be legal to pay taxes in the US using bitcoin before 2030?", "short_title": "US Taxes Payable in Bitcoin by 2030", "url_title": "US Taxes Payable in Bitcoin by 2030", "slug": "us-taxes-payable-in-bitcoin-by-2030", "author_id": 105656, "author_username": "Jotto", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-05T02:24:05.586976Z", "published_at": "2021-07-20T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:13:52.123648Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-20T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-07-20T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 143, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "๐ฐ", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7509, "title": "Will it be legal to pay taxes in the US using bitcoin before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-07-05T02:24:05.586976Z", "open_time": "2021-07-20T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-21T05:31:53.187040Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-21T05:31:53.187040Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will anyone be convicted in the US for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/conviction-in-us-for-bitcoin-ownership-2060/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point before January 1, 2030, the United States [Internal Revenue Service](irs.gov) officially accepts payments in Bitcoin.\n\n1. Some crypto payment services work by exchanging the crypto for fiat at the point of transaction, and then sends fiat. That doesn't count -- what the IRS must receive and accept is the Bitcoin.\n\n2. There is no requirement for the IRS to then hold onto that Bitcoin after receiving it, they could sell if for USD or anything else. It is only required that they accept it for the transaction.\n\n3. It can't be part of a punitive action by the IRS nor another part of the government. It must be that the person was making an otherwise-normal payment toward their income taxes or capital gains tax, in good legal standing. If the IRS seized their crypto holdings due to illegal activity, that is not the spirit of the question.\n\n4. There is no requirement that the Bitcoin transaction be on-chain. If the IRS accepted a custodial transfer of Bitcoin that was held by a bank in trust on behalf of the taxpayer, or if the taxpayer sent the Bitcoin using a lightning network payment channel, or if they sent it using a sidechain, or sent it using a wrapped BTC on another blockchain -- those are all acceptable", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7509, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763522021.350211, "end_time": 1764162540.772285, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763522021.350211, "end_time": 1764162540.772285, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.0759211694240234 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.106316756109597, 6.420737500383414, 2.7757438932710756, 1.0357570879673434, 0.30979077564744145, 1.9304423006478868, 0.0, 0.0, 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"end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9892220126920636, 0.010777987307936398 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 338, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will anyone be convicted in the US for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/conviction-in-us-for-bitcoin-ownership-2060/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 7504, "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?", "short_title": "2021 cease-fire in Tigray war lasts 30+ days", "url_title": "2021 cease-fire in Tigray war lasts 30+ days", "slug": "2021-cease-fire-in-tigray-war-lasts-30-days", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-07-02T19:42:28.295822Z", "published_at": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.083980Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-08T00:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-08T00:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T01:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T01:19:00Z", "open_time": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7504, "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?", "created_at": "2021-07-02T19:42:28.295822Z", "open_time": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T01:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T01:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T01:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-08T00:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-08T00:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [war between Tigrayan and Ethiopian-Eritrean forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War) that began in November 2020 is ongoing as of July 2021. An [estimated 1.7 million people](https://news.yahoo.com/un-over-400-000-people-203825888.html) have been displaced from their homes. Hundreds of thousands [reportedly face starvation](https://www.voanews.com/africa/un-agencies-warn-worsening-humanitarian-catastrophe-tigray) if international aid agencies do not soon obtain access to the threatened areas. The United States is [escalating pressure on Ethiopia](https://www.devex.com/news/us-congress-to-keep-pressure-on-ethiopia-after-unilateral-cease-fire-100272) to end the fighting and enable humanitarian access to the conflict zone.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively once a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Tigrayan and Ethiopian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. The question resolves negatively if no cease-fire has gone into effect by 2022, or if an announced cease-fire breaks down in 2022 before lasting 30 days. (Thus positive resolution in 2022 is possible if a cease-fire goes into effect late in 2021.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7504, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636314383.105365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636314383.105365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.15130082239147113 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2425126729529749, 0.0, 0.0, 1.597114067178863, 1.0966709981341718, 0.09543546787520314, 0.1268694582632473, 0.04492986066620649, 0.0, 0.6293485491701818, 0.0, 0.3250302514740647, 2.037274579041652, 1.4596197144791745, 0.13445830449990065, 0.03365548811464179, 0.6813708105344584, 0.16378110850070704, 0.20005070513194295, 0.06352508752660704, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7220062259213583, 0.7965517069063007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4159242870145984, 1.0, 0.0, 0.01414047269109762, 0.017206765638407475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033186276747047033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.419106952597133, "coverage": 0.9980761118369724, "baseline_score": 48.00160893677793, "spot_peer_score": -4.321376632168063, "peer_archived_score": 8.419106952597133, "baseline_archived_score": 48.00160893677793, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.321376632168063 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636314383.123059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636314383.123059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9221233959366821, 0.07787660406331783 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 181, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [war between Tigrayan and Ethiopian-Eritrean forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War) that began in November 2020 is ongoing as of July 2021. An [estimated 1.7 million people](https://news.yahoo.com/un-over-400-000-people-203825888.html) have been displaced from their homes. Hundreds of thousands [reportedly face starvation](https://www.voanews.com/africa/un-agencies-warn-worsening-humanitarian-catastrophe-tigray) if international aid agencies do not soon obtain access to the threatened areas. The United States is [escalating pressure on Ethiopia](https://www.devex.com/news/us-congress-to-keep-pressure-on-ethiopia-after-unilateral-cease-fire-100272) to end the fighting and enable humanitarian access to the conflict zone." } ] }
