Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4800
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Credible media reports will be consulted", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7495, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625109329.629708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625109329.629708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.1270716461915453 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 2.5576592630734414, 0.0, 1.1593980386556026, 0.5223904041082511, 0.15536336192763697, 0.31587852651268034, 0.3872215097627376, 0.12942361094527205, 0.5670486739636473, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 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null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9297426395550352, 0.07025736044496479 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "High power usage in the NYC area as a result of an ongoing heat wave seems like it [might result](https://abc7ny.com/power-outages-nyc-con-ed-outage-edison/10846373/) in imminent power outages." }, { "id": 7494, "title": "Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?", "short_title": "UK third wave?", "url_title": "UK third wave?", "slug": "uk-third-wave", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-30T19:10:28.230468Z", "published_at": "2021-07-03T07:05:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.959644Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-03T07:05:00Z", "comment_count": 135, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-22T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-22T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-22T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-22T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-07-03T07:05:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 214, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7494, "title": "Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-06-30T19:10:28.230468Z", "open_time": "2021-07-03T07:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-03T13:04:59.208968Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-03T13:04:59.208968Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-22T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-22T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-22T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-22T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The UK has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". The second wave of the pandemic proved more deadly than the first, reaching a peak of over 1200 deaths/day, however 85% of the UK's adult population has now received at least one vaccine dose, and all vaccines appear to be reasonably protective against the Delta variant.\n\nThe UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta.\n\nThis question asks:\n\n***Will the UK reach 100 deaths/day again by the end of 2021?***\n\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the **Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date** reported on the dashboard exceed 700.\n\n\n[fine-print]\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\n\nData updates meaning that more than 350 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\n\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7494, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1629741208.482432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 216, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1629741208.482432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 216, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9088785052711019 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.01226128776928996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.056995732036714916, 1.9070092137083223e-05, 3.0604810248248275e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.15848540544919365, 0.8415145945508063 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 31, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1254, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 7492, "title": "Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?", "short_title": "Sweden to have extra election in 2021?", "url_title": "Sweden to have extra election in 2021?", "slug": "sweden-to-have-extra-election-in-2021", "author_id": 112669, "author_username": "niklaswik", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-29T09:20:22.585412Z", "published_at": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.834201Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T17:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T17:50:00Z", "open_time": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7492, "title": "Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?", "created_at": "2021-06-29T09:20:22.585412Z", "open_time": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-06T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-06T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T17:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T17:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-29T17:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven resigned on June 28th, after losing a vote of confidence in the parliament. Now there will be discussions between the speaker of the parliament and all party leaders in the search for a majority coalition. The two major blocks are very tightly matched at this point at 175-174. After the election in 2018 it took 134 days to form an agreement between the parties that have been in majority since then.\n\nThe speaker will make a suggestion to the parliament when he feels he has found a candidate for prime minister that the majority will accept. There is no formal time limit for this process. \nIf at least 175 out of the 349 members of parliament vote against the candidate, the speaker has to come up with a new suggestion. After four votes where each candidate loses, an extra election must be announced, and the election will need to take place within 3 months.\n\nSources:\nhttps://www.thelocal.se/20210628/swedish-prime-minister-stefan-lofven-resigns/\n\nhttps://www.thelocal.se/20210621/sweden-stefan-lofven-loses-no-confidence-motion/ (before the resignation)\n\n***Will Sweden have an extra election before the end of December 2021?***\n\nThe question resolves positively if there is a general election for parliament in Sweden on or before December 31 2021. The final results need not be ready before this date.\n\nIn all other cases this question resolves negatively (e.g. there is no election because a new PM is elected by parliament, or there is an election on or after January 1 2022).\n\n[fine-print]\nPre-votes (mail votes) may be sent beforehand, but for positive resolution there needs to be an actual \"voting day\" where physical voting locations are open to the public, before December 31.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7492, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1633024325.251267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1633024325.251267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.09215095583644349 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 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move more than 15% in day by 2030", "url_title": "S&P 500 to move more than 15% in day by 2030", "slug": "sp-500-to-move-more-than-15-in-day-by-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-26T01:27:21.659336Z", "published_at": "2021-06-28T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T21:05:36.307454Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-28T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-28T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7481, "title": "Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?", "created_at": "2021-06-26T01:27:21.659336Z", "open_time": "2021-06-28T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-28T21:09:34.141000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-28T21:09:34.141000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [S&P 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is often used as a benchmark for the performance of large-cap companies in the United States. On October 19, 1987 (so-called [Black Monday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987))) the S&P fell 20.47%, the largest movement in its history, which has yet to be surpassed. Generally, when the stock market makes a sudden move, it indicates that there has been some economic shock, such as when the S&P 500 [fell 11.98%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash) during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before January 1st 2030 and after January 1st 2020, the S&P 500 moves by more than 15.0% from opening to closing price, in a single day", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7481, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763192406.494534, "end_time": 1764342528.749195, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2617028690398061 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763192406.494534, "end_time": 1764342528.749195, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2617028690398061 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.25564496434318223 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.3634464003638125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3337872932516758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3061620984667782, 1.924434365624709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1314375106214734, 2.0375558993594027, 0.0, 0.5049957670217226, 1.0475503630535912, 0.0, 0.7296853467349519, 0.0, 0.3952632697996375, 0.06818282742296448, 0.0471123603738702, 1.3108503172867603, 0.09578707349426503, 0.0, 0.02700918083308739, 0.0, 0.11855578058059343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8051826244731202, 0.03605708309460087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33615626793264985, 0.0, 0.429368094000161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004029996917539339, 0.5915086375725582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053493066571363594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009167091186681414, 0.016576386347562713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005537830714382473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5606220303958185 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288521.83477, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288521.83477, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9603503057700548, 0.03964969422994527 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 273, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [S&P 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is often used as a benchmark for the performance of large-cap companies in the United States. On October 19, 1987 (so-called [Black Monday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987))) the S&P fell 20.47%, the largest movement in its history, which has yet to be surpassed. Generally, when the stock market makes a sudden move, it indicates that there has been some economic shock, such as when the S&P 500 [fell 11.98%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash) during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic." }, { "id": 7468, "title": "Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?", "short_title": "Major Famine in North Korea before 2025", "url_title": "Major Famine in North Korea before 2025", "slug": "major-famine-in-north-korea-before-2025", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-23T05:30:34.521110Z", "published_at": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.807042Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:58:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 160, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7468, "title": "Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-06-23T05:30:34.521110Z", "open_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-30T16:59:56.303980Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-30T16:59:56.303980Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T07:59:28.678410Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea) is a country in East Asia, constituting the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. \n\nAccording to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an \"independent socialist state.\" It holds elections, though they have been described by independent observers as sham elections, as North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship, with an elaborate cult of personality around the Kim dynasty: Il-sung, Jong-il, and [current leader Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un). The Workers' Party of Korea, led by a member of the ruling family, is the dominant party and leads the Democratic Front for the Reunification of Korea, of which all political officers are required to be members.\n\nAccording to Article 3 of the constitution, [Juche](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche) is the official ideology of North Korea. The means of production are owned by the state through state-run enterprises and collectivized farms. Most services—such as healthcare, education, housing and food production—are subsidized or state-funded. From 1994 to 1998, [North Korea suffered a famine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine) that resulted in the deaths of 240,000 to 3.5 million people, and the population continues to suffer malnutrition.\n\nAs of 2021, in the aftermath of the global COVID-19 pandemic, as well as crop failures, [North Korea is facing a 'tense' food shortage](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57507456), and there are [fears that many people in the country may be at risk of starvation.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/03/north-korea-facing-major-food-shortage-could-lead-death-millions/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** in the event that before January 1, 2025, credible reports indicate that North Korea has suffered from a famine beginning no earlier than January 1, 2020 that has likely resulted in at least 250,000 deaths. 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The Workers' Party of Korea, led by a member of the ruling family, is the dominant party and leads the Democratic Front for the Reunification of Korea, of which all political officers are required to be members.\n\nAccording to Article 3 of the constitution, [Juche](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche) is the official ideology of North Korea. The means of production are owned by the state through state-run enterprises and collectivized farms. Most services—such as healthcare, education, housing and food production—are subsidized or state-funded. From 1994 to 1998, [North Korea suffered a famine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine) that resulted in the deaths of 240,000 to 3.5 million people, and the population continues to suffer malnutrition.\n\nAs of 2021, in the aftermath of the global COVID-19 pandemic, as well as crop failures, [North Korea is facing a 'tense' food shortage](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57507456), and there are [fears that many people in the country may be at risk of starvation.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/03/north-korea-facing-major-food-shortage-could-lead-death-millions/)" }, { "id": 7455, "title": "Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?", "short_title": "Unauthorised Nuclear Detonation by 2024", "url_title": "Unauthorised Nuclear Detonation by 2024", "slug": "unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-22T00:08:12.829392Z", "published_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.874943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:07:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 132, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7455, "title": "Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-06-22T00:08:12.829392Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-26T22:45:26.513741Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-26T22:45:26.513741Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:07:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:07:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n\n* \"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\n* \"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n\n* In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\n\n\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, by January 1, 2024, an accidental or unauthorised detonation, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon seized from a state actor. \n\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\n\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7455, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056083.748467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056083.748467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.016145536388316364 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.808245302064362, 6.991257446384476, 0.7830748294167853, 0.33340930397809293, 0.20773660828736984, 0.11459762364362228, 0.2891874624039782, 0.046748387309323354, 0.0, 0.05603665110750904, 0.0, 0.002449430530375752, 0.026913764842604472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017027479377469276, 0.30315982051394846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.318209642494191, 0.007782515123616614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009720962014957505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16633265031273883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.7455345755243301, "coverage": 0.9999955951162189, "baseline_score": 97.0864211582923, "spot_peer_score": -0.3726867656890839, "peer_archived_score": 1.7455345755243301, "baseline_archived_score": 97.0864211582923, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.3726867656890839 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056083.779555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056083.779555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 295, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n\n* \"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\n* \"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n\n* In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\n\n\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types." }, { "id": 7454, "title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?", "short_title": "Inadvertent Nuclear Detonation by 2024", "url_title": "Inadvertent Nuclear Detonation by 2024", "slug": "inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-22T00:06:32.594623Z", "published_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.331808Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:05:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 127, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7454, "title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-06-22T00:06:32.594623Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:05:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n\n* \"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\n* \"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n\n* In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\n\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2024, an inadvertent detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.\n\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\n\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7454, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056080.180083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056080.180083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.010604022193532084 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.375543813441231, 5.666056778394171, 0.7900431919454298, 0.2700460942496095, 0.11943999562275415, 0.012126359683372438, 0.010521369707464576, 0.048644505390147356, 9.426244767026915e-05, 0.0, 0.0242272687271096, 0.0, 0.000887779654608402, 0.0, 0.3425325318115609, 0.05916525186345398, 0.0, 0.3103909238661335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005146555260392763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00770178289475254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.0396465371791352, "coverage": 0.9996506229129374, "baseline_score": 98.03271348478869, "spot_peer_score": -0.4783658730605636, "peer_archived_score": 2.0396465371791352, "baseline_archived_score": 98.03271348478869, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.4783658730605636 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056080.211762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056080.211762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 267, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n\n* \"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\n* \"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n\n* In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\n\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types." }, { "id": 7453, "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?", "short_title": "Fatality from Nuclear Detonation in N. Korea", "url_title": "Fatality from Nuclear Detonation in N. Korea", "slug": "fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-22T00:02:34.223951Z", "published_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.678693Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7453, "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?", "created_at": "2021-06-22T00:02:34.223951Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) writes](https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/) that:\n\n> \"North Korea unilaterally withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in January 2003, is not a party to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), and has conducted six increasingly sophisticated nuclear tests since 2006. The DPRK is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and is believed to possess a large chemical weapons program. Despite being a state party to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and Geneva Protocol, evidence suggests North Korea may maintain an offensive biological weapons program.\n\n> In defiance of the international community, which has imposed heavy sanctions on North Korea for its illicit behavior, the country has continued to escalate its WMD activities. In July 2017, North Korea successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and in September 2017 it conducted a test of what it claimed was a thermonuclear weapon.\"\n\nTensions between North Korea and other countries have been increased by the country's testing of nuclear weapons and [of missiles that may have sufficient range to reach the continental United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwasong-15). As of 2020, the nuclear arsenal of North Korea was estimated at approximately [30 to 40 warheads](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction), with the sufficient production of fissile material for the creation of an additional 6 to 7 nuclear weapons a year. President Biden has warned Kim Jong-un that if production and testing of nuclear weapons continues, there will be a [US \"response.\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/world/asia/north-korea-arsenal-nukes.html)\n\n***Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one fatality occurs in North Korea from an offensive nuclear detonation before January 1, 2050. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. This question will resolve as **No** if that does not occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2050. This question resolves ambiguously if no nuclear detonation (other than test detonations or peaceful nuclear explosions) occurs anywhere before 2050. \n\n>[fine-print]\n>Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. 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"start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7452, "title": "Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?", "created_at": "2021-06-21T23:58:37.583667Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-25T22:59:08.043368Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-25T22:59:08.043368Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[US-Russia relations have been strained](https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-russia/) and tested through much of the 20th and 21st centuries. [Tensions have often been high even after the Cold War ended](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2021-04-06/us-russian-relations-will-only-get-worse), due to incidents such as expansions of NATO, the US invasion of Iraq and airstrikes in Libya, and Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and Georgia and interference in Western institutions like NATO, the EU, and the US Presidential Elections. \n\n> \"Any sustained improvement of relations between the United States and Russia beyond progress on arms control (such as the recent extension of the New START treaty) would require one of two concessions: either the United States shelves its foundational support for democracy and formally recognizes a Russian-privileged sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union or the Russian president decides his interests are not threatened by greater democracy in the region or by having fully sovereign neighbors. Neither is likely to materialize in the near future.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there's a war between the US and Russia before January 1, 2050. For the purposes of this question, a US-Russia war is defined as the US and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\n\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\n\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7452, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763586237.500634, "end_time": 1770737181.393658, "forecaster_count": 399, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763586237.500634, "end_time": 1770737181.393658, "forecaster_count": 399, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.18357378884260458 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.5483342756109146, 2.183210395368832, 0.7686450978936414, 0.5297578276247901, 2.4289872090896565, 4.782771441202245, 0.5461227601451988, 1.3242189528966495, 1.7584466621199266, 0.07307343087788776, 2.860383374138804, 0.2574551892808862, 0.057905863157268464, 1.1435513027489181, 1.5565399597904757, 4.123590503056377, 1.202782789327525, 0.33192267035041684, 0.6591892621130931, 0.007385667884065056, 2.2484432193420023, 0.0011753047537575597, 0.001527806746337076, 5.170878582092366e-06, 0.544854955338026, 1.0954297381107492, 0.0013124498551997268, 0.00025614121431526615, 0.019047723552297696, 0.0, 0.054737129199773533, 0.0, 0.044043762060821376, 0.014071823905909855, 3.259558870825773e-05, 1.0374149294457742, 0.08598765209414849, 0.0, 0.0005843442560363731, 0.0, 0.2527156120089518, 0.00017277935443231316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07899047408126281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04275023809344978, 0.9969192564199973, 0.7202897977698053, 0.009925055507781335, 0.0, 3.462984567842004e-07, 0.00899895487882021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1507936345640302, 1.2192002943468504e-05, 0.0, 2.669669364087246e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.502739651941464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004778773972408484, 0.00027876031458289296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.4274131772371514e-05, 0.9511100429337227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0280523669102362, 0.0, 0.0018359558677226524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00045885393268510927, 0.004931529691404337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40735493243805704 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289561.705941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289561.705941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9524394117338616, 0.047560588266138355 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 37, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 852, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[US-Russia relations have been strained](https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-russia/) and tested through much of the 20th and 21st centuries. [Tensions have often been high even after the Cold War ended](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2021-04-06/us-russian-relations-will-only-get-worse), due to incidents such as expansions of NATO, the US invasion of Iraq and airstrikes in Libya, and Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and Georgia and interference in Western institutions like NATO, the EU, and the US Presidential Elections. \n\n> \"Any sustained improvement of relations between the United States and Russia beyond progress on arms control (such as the recent extension of the New START treaty) would require one of two concessions: either the United States shelves its foundational support for democracy and formally recognizes a Russian-privileged sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union or the Russian president decides his interests are not threatened by greater democracy in the region or by having fully sovereign neighbors. Neither is likely to materialize in the near future.\"" }, { "id": 7451, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?", "short_title": "Deadly India/China Clash by Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Deadly India/China Clash by Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "deadly-indiachina-clash-by-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-21T23:55:39.877130Z", "published_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.046215Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 163, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7451, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-06-21T23:55:39.877130Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:55:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As discussed in [a previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4683/will-the-border-conflict-between-india-and-china-escalate-to-a-deadly-clash-involving-gunfire-or-explosives-before-2021/):\n\n>\"The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and diplomatic efforts to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued to persist resulting in incidents such as clashes in 1967 and a military standoff in 2017.\n\n> [In 2020], tensions have once again flared. Beginning in early May, clashes along the border between Chinese and Indian military forces resulted in some injuries, but no deaths. This changed on the night of June 15th when a deadly brawl broke out in the Galwan Valley near China’s eastern border with India. Each side disagrees about what exactly transpired, but Indian officials report that 20 of their soldiers died, some during the clash and some later after succumbing to their injuries. China has not reported how many of their soldiers died.\n\n> One unusual aspect of these clashes is that, so far, no shots have been fired and all deaths and injuries have been the result of fisticuffs, clubs (sometimes embellished with nails and barbed wire), stone-pelting, and falls from cliffs. While India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has confirmed that all border troops carry arms, a 1996 agreement between India and China states that: \"With a view to preventing dangerous military activities along the line of actual control in the India-China border areas… Neither side shall open fire, cause bio-degradation, use hazardous chemicals, conduct blast operations or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometres from the line of actual control.\"\n\nThis question adapts that previous question to consider what might happen by 2024 and in any location (not necessarily just near the China-India border).\n\n***Will there be a deadly clash between the Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the armed forces of India and the armed forces of China have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.\n\nFor this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n\nAt least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n\nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both China and India.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7451, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703936369.043704, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703936369.043704, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025884084403801966 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.629658835114364, 7.780719802056625, 0.7195637870723991, 0.5387625706311623, 0.6170376481559204, 0.46219575999825, 0.11496752863466086, 0.09981310554286367, 0.19309466486691645, 0.050824883750082116, 0.6769530746063144, 0.0, 0.06605485712114217, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 7450, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?", "short_title": "Deadly Russia/China Clash by Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Deadly Russia/China Clash by Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "deadly-russiachina-clash-by-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-21T23:53:20.130374Z", "published_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.852507Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:52:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 178, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7450, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-06-21T23:53:20.130374Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:52:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:52:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\n> \"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\n\nHowever, researchers for the Middle East Institute write:\n\n> \"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \n\nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the Chinese armed forces and the Russian armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.\n\nFor this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n\nAt least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n\nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both China and Russia", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7450, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965123.312138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965123.312138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008165970518865012 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.868939949731168, 4.871717103124695, 0.49991875598119045, 0.07214071653694606, 0.004221603551901142, 0.111251098367732, 0.023856490991987972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11069142011216458, 1.5027990136014875e-05, 0.0002154709245165599, 4.427726253352753e-05, 0.0, 0.2759935690500397, 0.0, 0.3364459648930367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009736467435844762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012555519182269845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.769338718344933e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009814776948893166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.134129834614202, "coverage": 0.9996548855248997, "baseline_score": 96.83833115310497, "spot_peer_score": -0.28908335513306543, "peer_archived_score": 3.134129834614202, "baseline_archived_score": 96.83833115310497, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.28908335513306543 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008242.335247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008242.335247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 381, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\n> \"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\n\nHowever, researchers for the Middle East Institute write:\n\n> \"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \n\nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them." }, { "id": 7449, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?", "short_title": "Deadly US/Russia Clash before 2024", "url_title": "Deadly US/Russia Clash before 2024", "slug": "deadly-usrussia-clash-before-2024", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-21T23:50:17.654843Z", "published_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.478111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 201, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7449, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-06-21T23:50:17.654843Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:49:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:49:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US and Russia have a complicated military history, which came to a head just recently in 2020 through a small skirmish between US and Russian forces in Syria.\n\n>\"While U.S. military and Russian forces have come in contact at checkpoints and along highway M4 in Syria throughout 2020, on Aug. 17 U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces came under small arms fire after passing through a checkpoint near Tal al-Zahab, Syria. The U.S. and SDF had permission from the pro-Syrian regime forces manning the checkpoint, but then began to take fire from unidentified forces nearby. The U.S. and SDF returned fire and did not suffer any casualties. [U.S. officials said the small arms fire likely came from Syrian and Russian forces.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/pentagon-sending-troops-syria-after-clashes-between-u-s-russian-n1240319)\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the US armed forces and the Russian armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.\n\nFor this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n\nAt least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n\nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both the US and Russia", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7449, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704030155.29725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 201, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704030155.29725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 201, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.01599703034291059 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.941737648102556, 5.363602937442742, 0.7448474924416504, 0.0958151944401123, 0.33232660893258376, 0.6675662671447741, 0.07276235347176514, 0.5359910367180356, 0.020576086604883324, 0.0060293465593511866, 0.12445452015688116, 0.0, 0.002017556340214141, 0.07825359663778654, 0.008708412672394179, 0.07703638686180252, 0.0, 0.0033603117246149066, 0.20847697701318865, 0.0, 0.2686798079341268, 0.0007107117335044789, 0.0, 0.012029257388067868, 0.009676501439239161, 0.10332288668608292, 0.021835932657153174, 0.0017169647919292176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021759299573469287, 0.0, 0.00011410090549334325, 0.0037910145223356354, 0.0, 0.06230630666300019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036346172090192724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8641660952820924e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027476020555656126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02270563759004742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001830000562510598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015090105152122128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.3600525473231055, "coverage": 0.9996545711344423, "baseline_score": 89.4067432436064, "spot_peer_score": 5.128248570880674, "peer_archived_score": 6.3600525473231055, "baseline_archived_score": 89.4067432436064, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.128248570880674 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704030155.353283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 201, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704030155.353283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 201, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 523, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US and Russia have a complicated military history, which came to a head just recently in 2020 through a small skirmish between US and Russian forces in Syria.\n\n>\"While U.S. military and Russian forces have come in contact at checkpoints and along highway M4 in Syria throughout 2020, on Aug. 17 U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces came under small arms fire after passing through a checkpoint near Tal al-Zahab, Syria. The U.S. and SDF had permission from the pro-Syrian regime forces manning the checkpoint, but then began to take fire from unidentified forces nearby. The U.S. and SDF returned fire and did not suffer any casualties. [U.S. officials said the small arms fire likely came from Syrian and Russian forces.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/pentagon-sending-troops-syria-after-clashes-between-u-s-russian-n1240319)\"" }, { "id": 7448, "title": "Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?", "short_title": "NASA Awards 2nd HLS Contract in 2021", "url_title": "NASA Awards 2nd HLS Contract in 2021", "slug": "nasa-awards-2nd-hls-contract-in-2021", "author_id": 118798, "author_username": "GoldbergMachinations", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-21T23:17:12.556854Z", "published_at": "2021-08-04T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.656868Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-04T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:46:59.637000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:46:59.637000Z", "open_time": "2021-08-04T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7448, "title": "Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?", "created_at": "2021-06-21T23:17:12.556854Z", "open_time": "2021-08-04T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-06T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-06T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:46:59.637000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:46:59.637000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-30T15:46:59.637000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-01T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NASA [recently awarded SpaceX](https://spacenews.com/nasa-selects-spacex-to-develop-crewed-lunar-lander/) $2.9B as the sole winner of its Human Landing System competition to bring astronauts back to the moon. It had been expected that NASA would issue two awards, due to its previous statements that competition and redundancy were \"extremely important principles\" for the program, and so only having one was widely seen as surprising.\n\nIn its [source selection statement](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/option-a-source-selection-statement-final.pdf) [pdf], NASA stressed that the selection of a single provider was due entirely to the fact that the HLS program was underfunded, to the point where they could only award the cheapest bid from SpaceX after negotiating with them to change the funding schedule. Later information releases revealed that SpaceX had bid $2.9B, Blue Origin $5.9B, and Dynetics approximately $8.5B. \n\nThere have been several developments since then which have raised the possibility of NASA revisiting this contract and awarding two providers as it had originally planned:\n\n* Blue Origin and Dynetics quickly [filed protests](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/nasa-suspends-hls-contract-with-spacex/) on what they claim to be an unfair award selection, and NASA issued a stop-work order to SpaceX until the Government Accountability Office reviewed the protests. The GAO [denied these protest](https://spacenews.com/gao-denies-blue-origin-and-dynetics-protests-of-nasa-lunar-lander-contract/) on July 30, saying that NASA acted legally in awarding only a single company.\n\n* The version of S. 1260 *The U.S. Innovation and Competitiveness Act* which the Senate passed on June 8 [includes in it language](https://spacenews.com/senate-passes-nasa-authorization-act-2/) which directs NASA to select a second HLS provider, while protecting SpaceX's current award. It would have to do this within 60 days from the current list of bids, which means either Blue Origin or Dynetics would be selected. However, this directive is an *authorization*, not an *appropriation*, meaning that it does not provide funding for this mandate. Additionally, it appears that there may be [some resistance to this in the House](https://www.wsj.com/articles/funding-for-bezos-space-company-fails-to-launch-in-house-11624008601), and the bill's ultimate future is unknown.\n\n* NASA Administrator Bill Nelson [is pushing to fund HLS with a total of $10B through the \"infrastructure bill\"](https://spacenews.com/nelson-asks-senate-appropriators-for-more-hls-funding/) which Congress is currently debating.\n\n* On July 26, Jeff Bezos [offered to waive the first $2 billion](https://spacenews.com/bezos-offers-billions-in-incentives-for-nasa-lunar-lander-contract/) in costs if NASA chose Blue Origin as a second HLS lander system.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if before 1 January 2022, NASA awards a fully funded second HLS contract to a provider other than SpaceX.\n\nThis question will resolve negatively otherwise.", "fine_print": "This only covers the Option A HLS award, and not any follow-on competitions under the HLS umbrella.\n\n\"Fully funded\" for the purposes of this question will mean at least 75% of that bid's requested funding is appropriated by Congress. This would cover a $10B appropriation with 100% of SpaceX’s funding met and the rest of the money going towards either of the other two bids. If any company lowers their bid (i.e. Bezos' $2B discount), then the \"fully funded\" criteria will apply to the new lowered total bid amount.", "post_id": 7448, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630465405.441595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630465405.441595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.24980929385510448 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.02678676987794279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 1.770622645848352, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.9764423478674386, 0.9354924903060939, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7731413014758394, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.24634769331769216, 0.10223706135307076, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.0096468460753953, "coverage": 0.998260951072734, "baseline_score": 49.439331259248426, "spot_peer_score": -9.616152558012853, "peer_archived_score": 1.0096468460753953, "baseline_archived_score": 49.439331259248426, "spot_peer_archived_score": -9.616152558012853 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630465405.468759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630465405.468759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8084708896646583, 0.19152911033534167 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NASA [recently awarded SpaceX](https://spacenews.com/nasa-selects-spacex-to-develop-crewed-lunar-lander/) $2.9B as the sole winner of its Human Landing System competition to bring astronauts back to the moon. It had been expected that NASA would issue two awards, due to its previous statements that competition and redundancy were \"extremely important principles\" for the program, and so only having one was widely seen as surprising.\n\nIn its [source selection statement](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/option-a-source-selection-statement-final.pdf) [pdf], NASA stressed that the selection of a single provider was due entirely to the fact that the HLS program was underfunded, to the point where they could only award the cheapest bid from SpaceX after negotiating with them to change the funding schedule. Later information releases revealed that SpaceX had bid $2.9B, Blue Origin $5.9B, and Dynetics approximately $8.5B. \n\nThere have been several developments since then which have raised the possibility of NASA revisiting this contract and awarding two providers as it had originally planned:\n\n* Blue Origin and Dynetics quickly [filed protests](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/nasa-suspends-hls-contract-with-spacex/) on what they claim to be an unfair award selection, and NASA issued a stop-work order to SpaceX until the Government Accountability Office reviewed the protests. The GAO [denied these protest](https://spacenews.com/gao-denies-blue-origin-and-dynetics-protests-of-nasa-lunar-lander-contract/) on July 30, saying that NASA acted legally in awarding only a single company.\n\n* The version of S. 1260 *The U.S. Innovation and Competitiveness Act* which the Senate passed on June 8 [includes in it language](https://spacenews.com/senate-passes-nasa-authorization-act-2/) which directs NASA to select a second HLS provider, while protecting SpaceX's current award. It would have to do this within 60 days from the current list of bids, which means either Blue Origin or Dynetics would be selected. However, this directive is an *authorization*, not an *appropriation*, meaning that it does not provide funding for this mandate. Additionally, it appears that there may be [some resistance to this in the House](https://www.wsj.com/articles/funding-for-bezos-space-company-fails-to-launch-in-house-11624008601), and the bill's ultimate future is unknown.\n\n* NASA Administrator Bill Nelson [is pushing to fund HLS with a total of $10B through the \"infrastructure bill\"](https://spacenews.com/nelson-asks-senate-appropriators-for-more-hls-funding/) which Congress is currently debating.\n\n* On July 26, Jeff Bezos [offered to waive the first $2 billion](https://spacenews.com/bezos-offers-billions-in-incentives-for-nasa-lunar-lander-contract/) in costs if NASA chose Blue Origin as a second HLS lander system." }, { "id": 7444, "title": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Elon Musk World's Richest Person 2025", "url_title": "Elon Musk World's Richest Person 2025", "slug": "elon-musk-worlds-richest-person-2025", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-17T21:30:03.664238Z", "published_at": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T04:46:06.683471Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 292, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7444, "title": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2021-06-17T21:30:03.664238Z", "open_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-28T14:48:55.323308Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-28T14:48:55.323308Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is currently the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $167 billion, according to [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).\n\nHe [was briefly the richest person in the world](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/elon-musk-is-richest-man-on-the-planet-mukesh-ambani-ranks-eighth/article33968896.ece/amp/) in early 2021.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elon Musk is the world's richest person according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) on December 31, 2025.\n\nIf the Bloomberg Billionaires Index is no longer published, the [Forbes Real Time Billionaires](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#13e9791c3d78) list should be used. If neither list is published, this will resolve according to the source identified by a consensus of Metaculus moderators; if there is no clear consensus, then the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7444, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763700355.819843, "end_time": 1763957254.674884, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763700355.819843, "end_time": 1763957254.674884, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14, 0.86 ], "means": [ 0.8135202031999982 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2998060075187196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11661334446446864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09645855071441094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027223742919663453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06977752899578708, 0.18945377969097518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002890555814196455, 0.0, 0.0010278743794281957, 0.0018810818436737359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002035511776380325, 0.0, 0.0014396715385694681, 0.006482656082743277, 0.00022111209728182583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25311099331604514, 0.0022967558717665246, 0.7186711676455761, 0.4038470030790676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5770543989441809, 0.0, 0.0010784108305004398, 0.14916826515693185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18498601180134547, 0.0, 0.7792708310757614, 0.0, 0.1687052872005337, 0.46407263100734675, 0.017143622596427165, 0.0, 0.12410419092502141, 0.9170808531071073, 0.0077707472895727076, 0.014511529871301599, 0.0009241705689538895, 0.0, 0.9117262494012445, 0.02755825804385377, 0.6757856098967441, 0.3138230159326961, 0.652572663768437, 1.0281043929247766, 1.023509819883621, 0.0, 0.889095022881764, 0.03204264418412277, 1.6328722132789377, 0.0, 0.935774243792204, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4363273701702806, 0.0743436415814241, 0.6689157103541861, 0.0, 1.9274810255305543 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289656.703563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 242, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289656.703563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 242, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5585840671315843, 0.44141593286841574 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 999, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is currently the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $167 billion, according to [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).\n\nHe [was briefly the richest person in the world](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/elon-musk-is-richest-man-on-the-planet-mukesh-ambani-ranks-eighth/article33968896.ece/amp/) in early 2021." }, { "id": 7442, "title": "Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?", "short_title": "GeoHot AI chip released to consumers?", "url_title": "GeoHot AI chip released to consumers?", "slug": "geohot-ai-chip-released-to-consumers", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-17T17:14:54.677100Z", "published_at": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.033863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7442, "title": "Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-06-17T17:14:54.677100Z", "open_time": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-12T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-01T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[George Hotz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz), also known as GeoHot, is an American entrepreneur who runs the autonomous driving AI company comma.ai.\n\nRecently GeoHot appeared to [announce the possibility](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Y97YY6yW1k) that he may start an AI training chip company designed to compete with NVidia.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves if a company owned and or controlled by George Hotz releases a product intended to accelerate deep learning / machine learning by or before January 1st 2030 UTC. The product in question must be applicable to a variety of deep learning / AI training tasks, as current GPUs are--an accelerator which only works to process driving footage or some other highly constrained task and is capable of nothing else does not qualify.\n\nProduct release means the product is on sale and able to be purchased by end-users.\n\nThe product must offer a performance to price ratio no worse than half that of competing products as determined by at least two published benchmarks from credible tech media and the lowest out-the-door or to-the-door prices available to the general public. \n\nBeta or development hardware does not resolve.\n\nResolves negative if resolve date is reached without a qualifying product", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7442, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1646093092.426908, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1646093092.426908, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22235941926115646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8630878681484565, 0.18113776984784913, 0.0, 0.28807439937996304, 0.7673719092354966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1494220410952148, 0.0, 0.8982279069853663, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5505289351792777, 0.012852091876617526, 0.0, 0.8655887224229246, 0.7806721925714661, 2.918779276390139, 0.16466410993500383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07298099028988847, 0.20216087365718732, 0.0, 0.8083843792088043, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.01228279419773062, 0.6423888484513706, 0.021542612258663517, 0.6929825785475864, 0.5479116118811652, 0.0, 0.063459122985457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01542797475028349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07128274001026091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39962148407489445 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1646093092.445927, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1646093092.445927, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8600452099647532, 0.13995479003524677 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[George Hotz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz), also known as GeoHot, is an American entrepreneur who runs the autonomous driving AI company comma.ai.\n\nRecently GeoHot appeared to [announce the possibility](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Y97YY6yW1k) that he may start an AI training chip company designed to compete with NVidia." }, { "id": 7441, "title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?", "short_title": "Draft Registration for Women before 2024", "url_title": "Draft Registration for Women before 2024", "slug": "draft-registration-for-women-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-17T15:12:09.371808Z", "published_at": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.228058Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-06T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-06T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-07T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-07T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 138, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7441, "title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-06-17T15:12:09.371808Z", "open_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-02T00:46:24.331065Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-02T00:46:24.331065Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-07T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-07T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-06T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-06T05:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Supreme Court in June [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\n\n>In 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n\n>. . .\n\n>On March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n\n>. . .\n\n>It remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if women (assigned female at birth) are legally required to register for US Selective Service prior to January 6, 2024. Resolution will be determined by reference to official legal codes or text or by reporting from at least three credible media sources that women are required to register for the draft. To resolve positively, women must be required to register prior to January 6, 2024; the passage of a law that required women to register on or after January 6, 2024 would not count. Elimination of Selective Service registration in its entirety would result in the question resolving negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7441, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704499211.939986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704499211.939986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.022264698478050522 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.886864054898155, 3.8802482088648755, 0.17163471308119338, 0.07158236420603267, 0.1496417462747764, 0.34329900189850343, 0.0430662841878566, 0.020788979790154795, 0.0679352392209624, 0.1223040845013242, 0.3053507291863143, 0.022146270059477058, 0.027856142538875167, 0.01636842102904531, 0.0, 0.11609275656670949, 0.09613985455351062, 4.4711075324938296e-05, 0.001428418055775581, 0.002264308476666213, 0.2639496369679216, 0.0, 0.0, 9.162097006103202e-05, 0.0, 0.013435208616516613, 0.0, 0.0040142601142291266, 0.004414835062178744, 0.0, 0.026156301347155596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009313667699328693, 0.01927670576285838, 0.008674738267734274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00038037354373094795, 0.003022368331970784, 0.0034471087941273407, 0.0, 0.0008614234482275015, 0.0, 0.0017256088791892754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007733611370666566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004318897872090119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011148853322253095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014456590699493564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24926105434665238, 0.0006924987191750883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011537516099959289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030163313638245436 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.086015091842626, "coverage": 0.999959687384083, "baseline_score": 74.20578800378993, "spot_peer_score": 8.313630430050225, "peer_archived_score": 18.086015091842626, "baseline_archived_score": 74.20578800378993, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.313630430050225 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704499211.976832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704499211.976832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 470, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Supreme Court in June [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\n\n>In 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n\n>. . .\n\n>On March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n\n>. . .\n\n>It remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari." }, { "id": 7437, "title": "Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?", "short_title": "Quantum Random Number Cryptocurrency", "url_title": "Quantum Random Number Cryptocurrency", "slug": "quantum-random-number-cryptocurrency", "author_id": 118463, "author_username": "KeaghanR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-16T18:20:12.484001Z", "published_at": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.363695Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-31T21:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-12-31T21:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7437, "title": "Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?", "created_at": "2021-06-16T18:20:12.484001Z", "open_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-21T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-21T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-12-31T21:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-31T21:46:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-12-31T21:46:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [physicsworld](https://physicsworld.com/a/fast-quantum-random-number-generator-could-advance-cryptography-on-the-cheap/), \n> When numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even chaotic ones – are deterministic, making true randomness impossible. [..] In the quantum world, in contrast, “there are these fundamentally non-deterministic processes,” says Nathan Walk, a physicist at Freie Universitat Berlin, Germany\n\n[Proof of Stake (PoS)](https://eth.wiki/en/concepts/proof-of-stake-faqs) is a type of consensus algorithm used by cryptocurrencies. Unlike Proof of Work (used by Bitcoin), PoS does not incentivize extreme amounts of energy consumption. PoS uses a pseudo-random process to select the validator to create the next block.\n\nScott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist with a focus on quantum computing, wrote in his [blog](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4317) that\n>because of my certified randomness protocol, which shows how a sampling-based quantum supremacy experiment could almost immediately be repurposed to generate bits that can be proven to be random to a skeptical third party (under computational assumptions). This, in turn, has possible applications to proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic protocols.\n\nRandom number generators have been shown to be vulnerable in the past and the future of PoS cryptocurrencies may rely on their security. During the [Hot Lotto fraud scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lotto_fraud_scandal),\n>It came to light in 2017, after Eddie Raymond Tipton, the former information security director of the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), confessed to rigging a random number generator that he and two others used in multiple cases of fraud against state lotteries. Tipton was first convicted in October 2015 of rigging a $14.3 million drawing of MUSL's lottery game Hot Lotto.\n\nAdditionally, as part of the [Bullrun program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullrun_(decryption_program)#Methods), the NSA was reported to have a backdoor in the Dual_EC_DRBG random number generator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if a credible media, company, or scientific source reports that a cryptocurrency has been created using a quantum random number generator and uses quantum random number generation as part of its normal functioning on an ongoing basis", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7437, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742619785.297491, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742619785.297491, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6870333008421838 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41773359555817, 0.0, 0.05797234383343228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015538817933844495, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1183158774447581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5506534361945985, 0.06718452183420129, 0.25446741675480405, 0.019676189570906492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36228609737363504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34768495764207935, 0.0, 0.3445918901109067, 0.6019627254324547, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.716439045345342, 1.7016922781712973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37974261668515136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1840996580849572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2417884996931732, 0.0773927070098371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9009997620992463 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287095.844228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287095.844228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4506345475083132, 0.5493654524916868 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [physicsworld](https://physicsworld.com/a/fast-quantum-random-number-generator-could-advance-cryptography-on-the-cheap/), \n> When numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even chaotic ones – are deterministic, making true randomness impossible. [..] In the quantum world, in contrast, “there are these fundamentally non-deterministic processes,” says Nathan Walk, a physicist at Freie Universitat Berlin, Germany\n\n[Proof of Stake (PoS)](https://eth.wiki/en/concepts/proof-of-stake-faqs) is a type of consensus algorithm used by cryptocurrencies. Unlike Proof of Work (used by Bitcoin), PoS does not incentivize extreme amounts of energy consumption. PoS uses a pseudo-random process to select the validator to create the next block.\n\nScott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist with a focus on quantum computing, wrote in his [blog](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4317) that\n>because of my certified randomness protocol, which shows how a sampling-based quantum supremacy experiment could almost immediately be repurposed to generate bits that can be proven to be random to a skeptical third party (under computational assumptions). This, in turn, has possible applications to proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic protocols.\n\nRandom number generators have been shown to be vulnerable in the past and the future of PoS cryptocurrencies may rely on their security. During the [Hot Lotto fraud scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lotto_fraud_scandal),\n>It came to light in 2017, after Eddie Raymond Tipton, the former information security director of the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), confessed to rigging a random number generator that he and two others used in multiple cases of fraud against state lotteries. Tipton was first convicted in October 2015 of rigging a $14.3 million drawing of MUSL's lottery game Hot Lotto.\n\nAdditionally, as part of the [Bullrun program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullrun_(decryption_program)#Methods), the NSA was reported to have a backdoor in the Dual_EC_DRBG random number generator." }, { "id": 7434, "title": "Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?", "short_title": "PsiQuantum Computer by 2025", "url_title": "PsiQuantum Computer by 2025", "slug": "psiquantum-computer-by-2025", "author_id": 118463, "author_username": "KeaghanR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-16T16:44:52.427160Z", "published_at": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.454298Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7434, "title": "Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?", "created_at": "2021-06-16T16:44:52.427160Z", "open_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-21T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-21T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:35:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:35:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early 2021, the firm [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/) announced that they plan on having a commercial quantum computer by 2025. The PsiQuantum computer, named \"the Q-1\", uses a 'photon qubit' approach as opposed to a 'matter qubit'. According to [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/),\n> There are many ways to make small numbers of qubits, but only one way to scale beyond 1,000,000 qubits and deliver an error corrected, fault tolerant general purpose quantum computer – and that is photonics.\n\n>Today, after numerous breakthroughs and advances in quantum architecture and silicon photonics, we uniquely have a clear path to building a useful quantum computer.\n\nIn 2020, PsiQuantum completed Series C funding of $150M bringing their total funding to $215M. Their list of investors includes BlackRock, Microsoft's Venture Fund, and Founders Fund.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively via PsiQuantum company report that they have a quantum computer for sale by 2025", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7434, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735653771.607431, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735653771.607431, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06206350200665242 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.497477232188422, 0.8096174267261271, 0.868442167385535, 0.7290505630513133, 0.5915086375725582, 0.4486900899861537, 0.0, 0.6392481672365632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8842764795337336, 0.09578707349426503, 0.19462111545643215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041314330922520195, 0.23789448276186304, 0.14627247037862934, 0.2826440158878759, 0.02700918083308739, 0.005537830714382473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02060638326510205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1314375106214734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026632629625951768, 0.28045304072399985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1769212063177643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11855578058059343, 0.0, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10669430773056678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287724.845033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287724.845033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9948238054171926, 0.0051761945828073955 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 154, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early 2021, the firm [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/) announced that they plan on having a commercial quantum computer by 2025. The PsiQuantum computer, named \"the Q-1\", uses a 'photon qubit' approach as opposed to a 'matter qubit'. According to [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/),\n> There are many ways to make small numbers of qubits, but only one way to scale beyond 1,000,000 qubits and deliver an error corrected, fault tolerant general purpose quantum computer – and that is photonics.\n\n>Today, after numerous breakthroughs and advances in quantum architecture and silicon photonics, we uniquely have a clear path to building a useful quantum computer.\n\nIn 2020, PsiQuantum completed Series C funding of $150M bringing their total funding to $215M. Their list of investors includes BlackRock, Microsoft's Venture Fund, and Founders Fund." }, { "id": 7412, "title": "Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?", "short_title": "HEMP Attack before 2024", "url_title": "HEMP Attack before 2024", "slug": "hemp-attack-before-2024", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-15T22:51:52.762447Z", "published_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.295641Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7412, "title": "Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-06-15T22:51:52.762447Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-26T23:04:45.815335Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-26T23:04:45.815335Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:51:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:51:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\n> Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. \nEMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power. \n\n[A 2005 report](https://web.archive.org/web/20121108204504/http://kyl.senate.gov/legis_center/subdocs/030805_pry.pdf) also claims analysts in other states see nuclear EMP attacks as a legitimate use of nuclear weapons or are concerned that their states may be targeted by such attacks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one High-Energy Magnetic Pulse attack occurs before January 1, 2024.\n\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n\n* a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or\n\n* a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation\n\nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count towards a positive resolution. For ease of question resolution, even a test HEMP which causes significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. Test HEMPs are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n\nPositive resolution requires a HEMP attack to be reported by at least three major media outlets within 30 days of the attack and before January 1st, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7412, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055336.071102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055336.071102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04180756373112547 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.731554659807589, 5.146059846004281, 0.08964142774319556, 0.6429960611713842, 0.11733889116749452, 0.1271577769686061, 0.041667087851142884, 0.07663143464076644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004940915054150324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021304056001353065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30464632543619785, 0.07152163762997933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1221029046084698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012630607718125297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6962650854290111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.6198190434403763, "coverage": 0.9996994405928573, "baseline_score": 97.93697966761118, "spot_peer_score": 1.61209356702527, "peer_archived_score": 2.6198190434403763, "baseline_archived_score": 97.93697966761118, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.61209356702527 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055336.105003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055336.105003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993240247132288, 0.0006759752867712427 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 219, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\n> Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. \nEMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power. \n\n[A 2005 report](https://web.archive.org/web/20121108204504/http://kyl.senate.gov/legis_center/subdocs/030805_pry.pdf) also claims analysts in other states see nuclear EMP attacks as a legitimate use of nuclear weapons or are concerned that their states may be targeted by such attacks." }, { "id": 7408, "title": "Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?", "short_title": "Next Nuclear Detonation Follows Conflict", "url_title": "Next Nuclear Detonation Follows Conflict", "slug": "next-nuclear-detonation-follows-conflict", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": 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conflict?", "created_at": "2021-06-15T21:55:29.162560Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:54:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:54:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The only two offensive detonations of nuclear weapons to date were immediately preceded by conventional conflict between Japan and the US in the South Pacific. Conventional conflict seems likely to increase the chance of an offensive nuclear detonation. However, it is also possible for a [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) nuclear detonation to happen without being preceded by conventional conflict, and this was a common worry during the Cold War in particular. \n\n***Will the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon occurs within three months of a fatality due to conventional conflict between that nuclear state and another state. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. A detonation by a non-state actor that has seized a state's nuclear weapon can count towards positive resolution, but a detonation of a weapon the non-state actor built themselves cannot.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there is no offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by January 1, 2050.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, conventional conflict means any clash between opposing state forces that results in at least one fatality caused by non-nuclear weapons. This could range from minor border disputes to full-blown war. A detonation that occur while the conventional conflict is ongoing can also count towards positive resolution.\n\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\n\n>[fine-print]\n>Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. 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