Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4820
{ "count": 6394, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4840", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4800", "results": [ { "id": 7407, "title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?", "short_title": "Deliberate Nuclear Detonation by 2024", "url_title": "Deliberate Nuclear Detonation by 2024", "slug": "deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-15T21:52:19.228756Z", "published_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.416123Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 202, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7407, "title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-06-15T21:52:19.228756Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:51:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:51:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n\n* \"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\n* \"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n\n* In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\n\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, by 2024, a deliberate detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.\n\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\n\nResolution information will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN, and will be interpreted under Metaculus' best judgement.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7407, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055284.815334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055284.815334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011535519500343287 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.310956740034264, 7.446235739121941, 1.252829087190259, 0.15056658072600926, 0.47494989327750503, 0.1776962517475818, 0.2984022276418255, 0.030644905086875774, 0.06576060364705738, 0.06601681069092138, 0.13222797396581987, 0.018686503994866793, 0.08369176115336932, 0.0, 0.01091834705492648, 0.005447108271251405, 0.0, 0.25475886086669725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001117711579562168, 0.0, 0.006425254657098678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030207584726414362, 0.0005506195434551423, 0.0, 0.008407011058017564, 0.0, 0.0482031688624234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.018107918923645e-05, 0.000473560027547433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04609081093108803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001335322172634533, 0.0067844235670626515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.367063534714002, "coverage": 0.999649961326076, "baseline_score": 95.13741185546162, "spot_peer_score": 0.9713949279258486, "peer_archived_score": 3.367063534714002, "baseline_archived_score": 95.13741185546162, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.9713949279258486 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055284.859945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055284.859945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 541, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n\n* \"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\n* \"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n\n* In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\n\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types." }, { "id": 7406, "title": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?", "short_title": "Fatal Non-state Nuclear Detonation by 2030", "url_title": "Fatal Non-state Nuclear Detonation by 2030", "slug": "fatal-non-state-nuclear-detonation-by-2030", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-15T21:50:01.521303Z", "published_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T06:55:29.876153Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T21:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7406, "title": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-06-15T21:50:01.521303Z", "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T21:49:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T21:49:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A nuclear detonation by a [non-state actor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-state_actor) could potentially have dire consequences either directly or via triggering other harmful actions by other actors. Non-state actors have never yet detonated nuclear weapons, but [there are conceivable scenarios in which they could](https://nonproliferation.org/understanding-nuclear-weapon-risks-non-state-actors-and-nuclear-weapons/): \n\n>The majority of nuclear security experts identify two primary scenarios involving nuclear weapons and non-state actors. The first scenario involves the acquisition of a nuclear device from the existing arsenals of nuclear-armed States by terrorists or other non-state actors. The second scenario envisions the construction of a crude nuclear bomb by non-state actors using special nuclear materials—highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium (Pu). The actualization of each of these scenarios would be very difficult, and the probability of a successful theft and detonation of an actual nuclear weapon or manufacturing of an improvised device by non-state actors is considered to be low. Yet, this probability is not zero.\n\n***Will a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality by 2030?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality in any country or area globally. \n\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \n\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\n\nNeither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\n\n>[fine-print]\n>Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7406, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763315985.319335, "end_time": 1765629083.314911, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763315985.319335, "end_time": 1765629083.314911, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.08995356954741175 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.0425793281440825, 3.676977589787037, 1.5073255012030418, 0.6123907281646258, 0.0, 0.2929777075987783, 0.2951876775553493, 0.0, 0.03860646978477285, 0.15879807646568847, 0.07290041733962924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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null }, "forecasts_count": 164, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 7405, "title": "Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?", "short_title": "US Fatality from Nuclear Weapon Detonation", "url_title": "US Fatality from Nuclear Weapon Detonation", "slug": "us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-15T21:46:39.146550Z", "published_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.202021Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, 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"options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. [As of May 2021](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/), the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with 6,257, the US with 5,550, and China with 350).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs at any time between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2050 and causes at least one fatality in the US. This question will resolve as **ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that time period. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. Detonations by either state or non-state actors can count towards question resolution. \n\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \n\nFor the purposes of this question, the \"United States\" will be defined as any and all of the US states (excluding, for example, [overseas territories](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States) such as Guam).\n\n>", "fine_print": ">Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.", "post_id": 7405, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754373432.061351, "end_time": 1770753598.536716, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754373432.061351, "end_time": 1770753598.536716, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.39603752802289616 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04478739497884664, 0.05030905064265755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07380841844394884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00475542490027373, 0.007454186295369823, 1.1432450171866015, 0.45337725660330125, 0.0, 0.012926585093015749, 0.2596374021764951, 1.0334564517371168, 0.0, 0.28203990864161294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1278411749500892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1685193219361709, 0.38854550310770575, 2.3146121270058035, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1447040943783635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14039373355087437, 0.0, 0.08633762966036197, 0.0, 1.4574227619577598, 0.07008451076222237, 0.05634097148935982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03974132889310917, 0.0, 0.017741576519297485, 0.0, 0.003637646323940793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2011093313353233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21925555021421456, 0.6568720698690461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002647192416789941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1539321045549336, 0.0, 0.02368489080579067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4890846737037814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02713823006833058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35918636306610896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6109045031913718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0778759809849148 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288219.266939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288219.266939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8941928503389555, 0.10580714966104453 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 146, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. [As of May 2021](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/), the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with 6,257, the US with 5,550, and China with 350)." }, { "id": 7404, "title": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?", "short_title": "Nuclear Detonation Fatality By 2024", "url_title": "Nuclear Detonation Fatality By 2024", "slug": "nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-15T21:42:22.914390Z", "published_at": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.012615Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 318, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7404, "title": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-06-15T21:42:22.914390Z", "open_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-23T04:44:15.576792Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-23T04:44:15.576792Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:38:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:38:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 6, 1945, the US detonated a nuclear weapon over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, it detonated another over Nagasaki. Those first two non-test nuclear detonations are also, to date, the only such detonations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a non-test nuclear detonation occurs and causes at least one fatality before January 1, 2024. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation of a state or non-state nuclear weapon can count towards a positive resolution. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\n\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \n\nThis question will resolve according to all credible media reports or from official government or UN reports.", "fine_print": "Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. 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Those first two non-test nuclear detonations are also, to date, the only such detonations." }, { "id": 7403, "title": "Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?", "short_title": "Deadly US/China Clash before 2024", "url_title": "Deadly US/China Clash before 2024", "slug": "deadly-uschina-clash-before-2024", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-15T21:36:06.007841Z", "published_at": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.707183Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 294, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! 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In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. \n\nQuestions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the US armed forces and the Chinese armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.\n\nFor this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. 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Biden proposed the American Jobs Plan, a $1.9 trillion infrastructure plan, in April. But, he has to either get all 50 senate Democrats to pass a bill through budget reconciliation, or get at least 10 Republicans to vote for the bill.\n\nBiden's infrastructure plan can be found here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-sheet-the-american-jobs-plan/", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if in 2021 Congress passes and the president signs an infrastructure package that will cost at least $1 trillion over 10 years, according to the CBO. Resolves per credible media reporting. 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But, he has to either get all 50 senate Democrats to pass a bill through budget reconciliation, or get at least 10 Republicans to vote for the bill.\n\nBiden's infrastructure plan can be found here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-sheet-the-american-jobs-plan/" }, { "id": 7384, "title": "Will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system before 2030?", "short_title": "Alien tech in solar system before 2030", "url_title": "Alien tech in solar system before 2030", "slug": "alien-tech-in-solar-system-before-2030", "author_id": 118674, "author_username": "BrianHoltz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-13T22:34:18.247309Z", "published_at": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T14:41:55.771995Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 258, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7384, "title": "Will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-06-13T22:34:18.247309Z", "open_time": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-16T11:27:04.176652Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-16T11:27:04.176652Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Defense Department started collecting UFO/UAP reports in 2007 as part of the [Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Aerospace_Threat_Identification_Program) and the later [Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidentified_Aerial_Phenomena_Task_Force). News of these programs and associated leaked videos have brought unprecedented mainstream attention to UFOs/UAP.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030, 4 credible media sources\\(^{†}\\) report that non-human extra-terrestrial technology has been discovered in the solar system (within Neptune's orbit). This may pertain to current claims of UFOs/UAP, events between June 1, 2021 and January 1, 2030, or discoveries of archaelogical evidence (defunct or non-operational technology, found on earth or in the solar system).", "fine_print": "\\(^{†}\\)for this question, credible media sources will include:\n\n* The Associated Press\n* The New York Times\n* The Wall Street Journal\n* The Washington Post\n* The Los Angeles Times\n* Time Magazine\n* The Economist\n* The Times of London\n* The Financial Times\n* Le Monde\n* or Die Zeit\n\nAdditionally, A report from a branch of the federal government that claims that aliens are the most likely explanation of a reported observation will count as a source", "post_id": 7384, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762699304.538832, "end_time": 1763806662.478041, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762699304.538832, "end_time": 1763806662.478041, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.08443549394613033 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.082277682464589, 9.659811574051618, 2.23921965430267, 0.0007604496385093892, 0.31155223342219884, 2.4258549079601925, 0.0, 0.270005671714424, 0.015763370570467377, 0.04711440657127426, 0.2441512899554735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09977930861130786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06459741883424044, 0.0, 5.741537974163624e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1006060294531306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02905174412896142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00048170353922776085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017720882882141462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13858410140336952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8010965262568425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1789172360526239, 0.012753125959287959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007730499573338387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04493546434894697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35748514002795023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0896784295747183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5569773831810364 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288621.744327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288621.744327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9958439228689562, 0.004156077131043841 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 500, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Defense Department started collecting UFO/UAP reports in 2007 as part of the [Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Aerospace_Threat_Identification_Program) and the later [Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidentified_Aerial_Phenomena_Task_Force). News of these programs and associated leaked videos have brought unprecedented mainstream attention to UFOs/UAP." }, { "id": 7382, "title": "Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?", "short_title": "Non-transitory Inflation in the U.S.", "url_title": "Non-transitory Inflation in the U.S.", "slug": "non-transitory-inflation-in-the-us", "author_id": 115720, "author_username": "maraging", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-13T11:04:39.051325Z", "published_at": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.841012Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-02-10T18:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-10T18:28:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7382, "title": "Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-06-13T11:04:39.051325Z", "open_time": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-25T00:06:40.928485Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-25T00:06:40.928485Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-10T18:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-02-10T18:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-02-10T18:28:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "\"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.\" ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp))\n\nThe question concerns the likelyhood of the year-over-year U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") being above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months until December 2023.\n\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E))", "resolution_criteria": "We will use the not-seasonally-adjusted figures (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)) for resolution.\n\nThis question resolves positively if the YoY Core CPI rises above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months between August 2021 and December 2023, included.\n\nThis question resolves negatively if otherwise.", "fine_print": "[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-20: Clarified that we'll use not-seasonally-adjusted figures and that the clock starts in August 2021.", "post_id": 7382, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1646936931.802032, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1646936931.802032, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.08999999999999997, 0.91 ], "means": [ 0.8939490548304054 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04896551112574321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.008663037296332391, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988, 0.030784600481361255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23153549159619913, 0.1341757537316506, 0.10666096661288105, 0.017752108957266952, 0.011325021621769293, 0.0, 0.036208439996911576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2274691399399458, 0.056405454004622, 0.03594199395173998, 0.0, 0.14984332909134115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04225147949949812, 0.0, 0.9253192545386865, 0.30445314579120214, 0.07369964090399271, 0.2511459123085843, 0.0, 0.18546127569376372, 0.11981076312780951, 0.6183252296339623, 1.9651592745562123, 0.7553579115586806, 0.4789409092720612, 0.7288213086725668, 0.0, 0.7899839106380127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7009355736438561, 2.423953504819326 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.9271444362298946, "coverage": 0.19918064594337037, "baseline_score": 12.897091833792688, "spot_peer_score": -10.942631310389338, "peer_archived_score": 2.9271444362298946, "baseline_archived_score": 12.897091833792688, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.942631310389338 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1644393370.264883, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1644393370.264883, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.05222092753316354, 0.9477790724668365 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 120, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "\"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.\" ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp))\n\nThe question concerns the likelyhood of the year-over-year U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") being above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months until December 2023.\n\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E))" }, { "id": 7378, "title": "Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?", "short_title": "MOVE Index Above 70 before November?", "url_title": "MOVE Index Above 70 before November?", "slug": "move-index-above-70-before-november", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-12T01:46:14.687063Z", "published_at": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.081261Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-07-27T09:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-01T01:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-01T01:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-27T09:37:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1005, "type": "tournament", "name": "Trade Signal Tournament", "slug": "trade-signal-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Trade_Signal_Tournament.png", "prize_pool": "1487.68", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2021-10-29T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2021-10-27T19:30:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Trade Signal Tournament! Metaculus users have been forecasting on nine economic indicators for almost a year, helping us build a data set robust enough to compare the Metaculus Prediction against other economic forecasting platforms in the market. After a successful initial performance, we are excited to announce this tournament and continue to keep exploring the possibility of building a trading signal together with the Metaculus forecasting community. \r\n\r\nThe tournament is currently open and consists of an interesting batch of monthly economic indicators and cocktail-party-friendly finance questions. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1005, "type": "tournament", "name": "Trade Signal Tournament", "slug": "trade-signal-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Trade_Signal_Tournament.png", "prize_pool": "1487.68", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2021-10-29T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2021-10-27T19:30:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Trade Signal Tournament! Metaculus users have been forecasting on nine economic indicators for almost a year, helping us build a data set robust enough to compare the Metaculus Prediction against other economic forecasting platforms in the market. After a successful initial performance, we are excited to announce this tournament and continue to keep exploring the possibility of building a trading signal together with the Metaculus forecasting community. \r\n\r\nThe tournament is currently open and consists of an interesting batch of monthly economic indicators and cocktail-party-friendly finance questions. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7378, "title": "Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?", "created_at": "2021-06-12T01:46:14.687063Z", "open_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-17T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-17T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-01T01:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-27T09:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-27T09:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-01T01:45:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-27T09:37:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The MOVE Index is quite similar to the VIX Index, except that it tracks the volatility in the bond market, rather than the stock market.\n\nMOVE Index creator Harley Bassman [comments that](https://www.theice.com/insights/market-pulse/fixed-income-with-harley-bassman):\n\n> \"Why the MOVE was so valuable recently is that, while the VIX and equity markets get all the headlines; the bond bucket is actually much bigger, and it tends to signal things ahead of the equity market, because the underlying plumbing of finance happens in the bond market. Although the VIX went up a lot, the MOVE went up awful a lot more - and that really told you that this was a serious problem in the market, because bonds should not move more than stocks do.\"\n\nIn March 2020, while the VIX Index reached a level of [53.54](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/), the MOVE Index nearly tripled that with a closing index value of [nearly 140](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MOVE:INDEXNYSEGIS?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj_4cTzu_zwAhVS-p4KHT2wAmoQ3ecFMAB6BAgNEBo&window=5Y). In the beginning of June 2021, the MOVE Index sat at just above 50. However, since the beginning of the pandemic it has only just dipped below 40 a handful of times.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 11-01-21 the MOVE Index breaches 70. This will include inter-daily values, and the last day counted will be the closing value on 10-31-21. \n\nIf no closing or inter-daily value breach 70 before before 11-01-21, then this question will resolve negatively. \n\nResolution source will come from Google Finance or from any other reliable financial reporting platform", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627545934.785941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627545934.785941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.7765227759870442 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.020706884286877357, 0.15771462583445342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 1.364898036763941, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3563020167211624 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.15793779216713, "coverage": 0.3880692648740221, "baseline_score": -2.6492199256197897, "spot_peer_score": 20.606624402671898, "peer_archived_score": 3.15793779216713, "baseline_archived_score": -2.6492199256197897, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.606624402671898 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627373172.098962, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627373172.098962, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.28629214706829065, 0.7137078529317094 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The MOVE Index is quite similar to the VIX Index, except that it tracks the volatility in the bond market, rather than the stock market.\n\nMOVE Index creator Harley Bassman [comments that](https://www.theice.com/insights/market-pulse/fixed-income-with-harley-bassman):\n\n> \"Why the MOVE was so valuable recently is that, while the VIX and equity markets get all the headlines; the bond bucket is actually much bigger, and it tends to signal things ahead of the equity market, because the underlying plumbing of finance happens in the bond market. Although the VIX went up a lot, the MOVE went up awful a lot more - and that really told you that this was a serious problem in the market, because bonds should not move more than stocks do.\"\n\nIn March 2020, while the VIX Index reached a level of [53.54](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/), the MOVE Index nearly tripled that with a closing index value of [nearly 140](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MOVE:INDEXNYSEGIS?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj_4cTzu_zwAhVS-p4KHT2wAmoQ3ecFMAB6BAgNEBo&window=5Y). In the beginning of June 2021, the MOVE Index sat at just above 50. However, since the beginning of the pandemic it has only just dipped below 40 a handful of times." }, { "id": 7377, "title": "Will the VIX Index see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers?", "short_title": "Change in VIX by 5 after NFP Numbers?", "url_title": "Change in VIX by 5 after NFP Numbers?", "slug": "change-in-vix-by-5-after-nfp-numbers", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-12T01:43:04.528713Z", "published_at": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.217897Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-10T01:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-10T01:42:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-03T23:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-03T23:45:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1005, "type": "tournament", "name": "Trade Signal Tournament", "slug": "trade-signal-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Trade_Signal_Tournament.png", "prize_pool": "1487.68", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2021-10-29T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2021-10-27T19:30:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Trade Signal Tournament! Metaculus users have been forecasting on nine economic indicators for almost a year, helping us build a data set robust enough to compare the Metaculus Prediction against other economic forecasting platforms in the market. After a successful initial performance, we are excited to announce this tournament and continue to keep exploring the possibility of building a trading signal together with the Metaculus forecasting community. \r\n\r\nThe tournament is currently open and consists of an interesting batch of monthly economic indicators and cocktail-party-friendly finance questions. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1005, "type": "tournament", "name": "Trade Signal Tournament", "slug": "trade-signal-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Trade_Signal_Tournament.png", "prize_pool": "1487.68", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2021-10-29T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2021-10-27T19:30:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Trade Signal Tournament! Metaculus users have been forecasting on nine economic indicators for almost a year, helping us build a data set robust enough to compare the Metaculus Prediction against other economic forecasting platforms in the market. After a successful initial performance, we are excited to announce this tournament and continue to keep exploring the possibility of building a trading signal together with the Metaculus forecasting community. \r\n\r\nThe tournament is currently open and consists of an interesting batch of monthly economic indicators and cocktail-party-friendly finance questions. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7377, "title": "Will the VIX Index see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers?", "created_at": "2021-06-12T01:43:04.528713Z", "open_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-17T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-17T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-03T23:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-03T23:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-09-03T23:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-10T01:42:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-10T01:42:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"fear gauge\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.\n\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month. \n\nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a closing peak of [82.69](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/) on the 16th. \n\nOne [popular indicator of expected volatility](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/non-farm-payroll-report.asp) is the Non-Farm Payroll number. \n\n> \"The non-farm payroll report causes one of the consistently largest rate movements of any news announcement in the forex market. As a result, many analysts, traders, funds, investors, and speculators anticipate the NFP number and the directional movement it will cause. With so many different parties watching this report and interpreting it, even when the number comes in line with estimates, it can cause large rate swings.\"\n\nThese large rate swings show up regularly in the VIX Index on the day of and throughout the following week.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point within 7 days the VIX increases or decreases more than 5 points above or below the closing day value of the VIX on the day prior to the release dates of either July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll values. \n\nIf after 7 days at closing the VIX has not changed more than 5 points from its closing day values the day prior to the release dates of the Non-Farm Payroll values, then this question resolves negatively.\n\nIntra-daily values do count towards positive resolution.\n\nResolution can be sourced from either YahooFinance! or MarketWatch", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7377, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628544141.99129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628544141.99129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5718026322468117 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2613886343686929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003576932888935743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8585512680100754, 0.0, 0.6782416881858238, 0.03108680207201517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4111953249574266, 0.6257304587135947, 0.0, 0.04497621113459413, 0.31473508132901346, 0.794434019298327, 1.259952022988719, 2.299800818647696, 0.39596799924660825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5792908840032115, 0.022263149504593318, 0.5766688751576644, 0.6314291096406244, 0.009723111673611546, 0.159228013413647, 0.0, 0.09157390813266936, 0.21562164146808224, 0.0, 0.1360858418498067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.9785074960411062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37666641231333553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628544142.294092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628544142.294092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4684425369843037, 0.5315574630156963 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"fear gauge\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.\n\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month. \n\nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a closing peak of [82.69](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/) on the 16th. \n\nOne [popular indicator of expected volatility](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/non-farm-payroll-report.asp) is the Non-Farm Payroll number. \n\n> \"The non-farm payroll report causes one of the consistently largest rate movements of any news announcement in the forex market. As a result, many analysts, traders, funds, investors, and speculators anticipate the NFP number and the directional movement it will cause. With so many different parties watching this report and interpreting it, even when the number comes in line with estimates, it can cause large rate swings.\"\n\nThese large rate swings show up regularly in the VIX Index on the day of and throughout the following week." }, { "id": 7376, "title": "Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?", "short_title": "VIX Index Below 15 before September?", "url_title": "VIX Index Below 15 before September?", "slug": "vix-index-below-15-before-september", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-06-12T01:41:07.893821Z", "published_at": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.709536Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-23T18:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-02T01:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-02T01:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-23T18:55:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1005, "type": "tournament", "name": "Trade Signal Tournament", "slug": "trade-signal-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Trade_Signal_Tournament.png", "prize_pool": "1487.68", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2021-10-29T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2021-10-27T19:30:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Trade Signal Tournament! Metaculus users have been forecasting on nine economic indicators for almost a year, helping us build a data set robust enough to compare the Metaculus Prediction against other economic forecasting platforms in the market. After a successful initial performance, we are excited to announce this tournament and continue to keep exploring the possibility of building a trading signal together with the Metaculus forecasting community. \r\n\r\nThe tournament is currently open and consists of an interesting batch of monthly economic indicators and cocktail-party-friendly finance questions. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1005, "type": "tournament", "name": "Trade Signal Tournament", "slug": "trade-signal-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Trade_Signal_Tournament.png", "prize_pool": "1487.68", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2021-10-29T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2021-10-27T19:30:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Trade Signal Tournament! Metaculus users have been forecasting on nine economic indicators for almost a year, helping us build a data set robust enough to compare the Metaculus Prediction against other economic forecasting platforms in the market. After a successful initial performance, we are excited to announce this tournament and continue to keep exploring the possibility of building a trading signal together with the Metaculus forecasting community. \r\n\r\nThe tournament is currently open and consists of an interesting batch of monthly economic indicators and cocktail-party-friendly finance questions. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7376, "title": "Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21?", "created_at": "2021-06-12T01:41:07.893821Z", "open_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-16T15:19:17.583973Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-16T15:19:17.583973Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-02T01:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-23T18:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-06-23T18:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-02T01:40:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-23T18:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"fear gauge\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.\n\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month. \n\nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a closing [peak of 82.69](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/) on the 16th with an intra-daily peak of 85.54 on the 18th. At just above [18 at the beginning of June 2021](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/), the VIX has now fallen back in line with its typical values.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 9-01-21 an intra-daily or closing value of the VIX falls below 15. \n\nResolution can be sourced from either YahooFinance! or MarketWatch", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7376, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1624900471.176277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1624900471.176277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8663030424210227 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04535037156571558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008023442444365229, 0.0, 0.0775030084782564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12426951433661654, 0.0, 0.010488891604094424, 0.0, 0.11096509564589224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2717357672574773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23162655277419752, 0.16840898761431083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04402328386471337, 0.0, 0.04997662413198872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09878615287055517, 0.0, 0.2819752713399747, 0.3494553671257464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1678648759200726, 0.19043220276906433, 0.06825837252413955, 0.005838829315397701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3395232167316722, 0.0, 1.322681203523828, 0.0, 0.7316591424190335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6220865835985105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44358054667768915, 0.0, 2.5231082998351373, 0.0, 1.0813443758976766, 0.0, 2.254033918514386 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.1064880910298054, "coverage": 0.1706360813348927, "baseline_score": 5.392571513023853, "spot_peer_score": 14.499517595186264, "peer_archived_score": 1.1064880910298054, "baseline_archived_score": 5.392571513023853, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.499517595186264 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1624460071.516522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1624460071.516522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3003702814258432, 0.6996297185741568 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"fear gauge\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.\n\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month. \n\nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a closing [peak of 82.69](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/) on the 16th with an intra-daily peak of 85.54 on the 18th. At just above [18 at the beginning of June 2021](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/), the VIX has now fallen back in line with its typical values." }, { "id": 7340, "title": "Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?", "short_title": "New Megadonor in EA in 2026", "url_title": "New Megadonor in EA in 2026", "slug": "new-megadonor-in-ea-in-2026", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-09T12:58:48.358411Z", "published_at": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T12:42:38.860348Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2978, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Effective Altruism Resources Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2050-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.334821Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T01:08:31.808671Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2978, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Effective Altruism Resources Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2050-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.334821Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T01:08:31.808671Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7340, "title": "Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?", "created_at": "2021-06-09T12:58:48.358411Z", "open_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-02T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-02T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-05-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.goodventures.org/our-portfolio/grants-database) and $274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. This question asks if, in 2026, there will be another such foundation or individual donor in the effective altruism space.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, in 2026, an individual donor or foundation other than Good Ventures, sourcing its wealth from a single individual or family donates over 250 million dollars (adjusted for inflation), using an Effective Altruist framework to guide their donations (see fine print for details).\n\nGrants should only count if they are publicly disclosed, as is currently done by Good Ventures or [Survival and Flourishing](https://survivalandflourishing.fund/), for example.", "fine_print": "A donor will be considered to have donated the money if the money has been regranted to organisations outside their foundation to explicitly pursue direct work on improving the world (so, for example, donating to a Donor Advised Fund with the intention of investing the money for future charitable use would not count, but donating to an organisation doing cause prioritisation research would count). \n\nAn organisation should be considered EA aligned if out of 3 Metaculus moderators, 3/3 would consider the donor or the majority of the leadership of the organisation to be members of the EA community, or that the donations were motivated by Effective Altruist considerations. If moderators are divided or individually uncertain, I will make a best-effort attempt to poll 5 well-known members of the EA community who can credibly attest to being part of EA as of June 4 2021.\n\nBy way of a guide, this is intended to exclude, for example, the [Gates Foundation](https://www.gatesfoundation.org/), but include [Open Philanthropy](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/), [Longview Philanthropy](https://www.longview.org/) and [The Life You Can Save](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/) as of 2021.\n\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-28: clarified that Good Ventures doesn't count.", "post_id": 7340, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763732301.903525, "end_time": 1764403085.097807, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763732301.903525, "end_time": 1764403085.097807, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3219604905260564 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8985547273053881, 0.5639223720695624, 0.9195046140969454, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 2.2319951579194375, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0522204828640036, 0.0, 0.9716334950536447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5562681762868227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15306473011963811, 0.3418788874479935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14965491340452852, 0.05855889144026411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11919235601565477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028709986438327752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.082113193779137, 0.07919054371229513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287137.300586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287137.300586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6536644208541913, 0.34633557914580876 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 303, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.goodventures.org/our-portfolio/grants-database) and $274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. This question asks if, in 2026, there will be another such foundation or individual donor in the effective altruism space." }, { "id": 7335, "title": "Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?", "short_title": "Internet Freedom to Decline until 2025", "url_title": "Internet Freedom to Decline until 2025", "slug": "internet-freedom-to-decline-until-2025", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-08T15:06:50.525270Z", "published_at": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.600101Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7335, "title": "Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?", "created_at": "2021-06-08T15:06:50.525270Z", "open_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-22T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-22T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Freedom on the Net [report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2020/pandemics-digital-shadow) is an annual report on internet freedom worldwide, produced by Freedom House. It tracks changes in internet regulation across 65 countries. As of the 2020 edition, it claimed that freedom had been on the decline (operationalised as more countries' scores decreasing than increasing) for ten years in a row, with 26 countries' scores worsening and 22 improving in 2020. This question asks if this pattern of decline will persist for the next five years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if for each year until 2025, inclusive, Freedom House reports more countries with a decrease in their internet freedom scores than with an increase", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7335, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763643005.471, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763643005.471, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.9521148067179962 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017143622596427165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014511529871301599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1320132265266261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001755918250099594, 0.0, 0.0021358479068187765, 0.0, 0.006982418227413519, 0.0005513502689110807, 0.0, 0.0038245446286032047, 0.0034246513430728643, 0.0, 0.001151754166045368, 0.0012497772419926385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024156522646221978, 0.041867098629319366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015781900002267545, 0.0, 0.07203598866090205, 0.0004530981350361459, 0.06842327491337587, 0.021580975587148193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01730948924496803, 0.0, 0.005805836553457768, 0.0077707472895727076, 1.0584720316055103, 0.03450808681536507, 0.20702374760102488, 1.4547427739062817, 0.5524852073669788, 5.135255998987548, 3.9672012223898374, 1.3164587093909477, 1.2329570285635385, 3.4046437919530965 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288191.876451, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288191.876451, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.16620297718907362, 0.8337970228109264 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 288, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Freedom on the Net [report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2020/pandemics-digital-shadow) is an annual report on internet freedom worldwide, produced by Freedom House. It tracks changes in internet regulation across 65 countries. As of the 2020 edition, it claimed that freedom had been on the decline (operationalised as more countries' scores decreasing than increasing) for ten years in a row, with 26 countries' scores worsening and 22 improving in 2020. This question asks if this pattern of decline will persist for the next five years." }, { "id": 7334, "title": "Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US before 2041?", "short_title": "US Commercial Animal Farming Ban by 2041", "url_title": "US Commercial Animal Farming Ban by 2041", "slug": "us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2041", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-08T14:41:57.695672Z", "published_at": "2021-07-04T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:29:48.366961Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-04T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-07-04T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 174, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7334, "title": "Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US before 2041?", "created_at": "2021-06-08T14:41:57.695672Z", "open_time": "2021-07-04T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-06T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming. This question asks if they will be proved correct, while also accepting a legislative ban on animal farming for positive resolution.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial animal farming before December 31, 2040.", "fine_print": "Commercial Animal farming is considered to be the branch of agriculture involving animals that are raised for the commerce of meat, fibre, milk, eggs, or other physical products. For example, dairy cows should count as animal farming, but not pet chickens or animals kept in zoos for entertainment purposes. 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This question asks if they will be proved correct, while also accepting a legislative ban on animal farming for positive resolution." }, { "id": 7333, "title": "Will there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?", "short_title": "No US stock exchange for 1 year by 2120", "url_title": "No US stock exchange for 1 year by 2120", "slug": "no-us-stock-exchange-for-1-year-by-2120", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-08T13:31:15.819357Z", "published_at": "2021-06-21T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.181805Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-21T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2120-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2121-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-21T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { 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"edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7329, "title": "Will one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?", "created_at": "2021-06-07T13:27:59.704113Z", "open_time": "2021-06-29T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-30T22:42:26.268729Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-30T22:42:26.268729Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-07-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-07-01T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China is currently [the most populous county in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), with 17.9% of the global population. Historically, only [various Chinese empires](https://vividmaps.com/largest-empires-by-population/) and the Mongol and Roman Empires have exceeded 30% of the global population. This question asks if by 2100, there will be a centralised government ruling over 80% of the world's population, and accounting for over 80% of global GDP.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if a single government rules over 80% of Earth population and 80% of Earth GDP at any point before January 1st 2100. An organisation would be considered an Earth government if it has supreme military authority in its territory, a unified foreign policy and the power to collect taxes and make laws. This would include the 2021 United States and exclude the 2021 European Union or United Nations", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7329, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762499446.924954, "end_time": 1764404964.799901, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762499446.924954, "end_time": 1764404964.799901, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.11474681611591896 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.383678197801413, 2.0707900361656195, 1.4978339056361185, 0.5837899061425317, 0.3652186904898319, 2.6016785708511727, 0.82816201201112, 0.5380354113614574, 0.004566222656217276, 0.8459309363213399, 4.118271490793619, 0.8283006573971016, 0.2967790035710662, 0.0, 0.0004714670427999434, 0.4507969503334398, 0.1740218554384155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.021863981330745, 0.004135742170104737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07323508953146528, 0.009787388429888409, 0.13495591526548437, 0.0, 0.021177014631405623, 0.0, 0.19154374531534243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18932744675612517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002724384394276746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39386958355054824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03281004141192511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08500988733448836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22580387150178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060789476943725025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010255387381884256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0687114926821678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42979895733447326 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287853.082038, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287853.082038, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9446870823584449, 0.0553129176415551 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 346, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China is currently [the most populous county in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), with 17.9% of the global population. Historically, only [various Chinese empires](https://vividmaps.com/largest-empires-by-population/) and the Mongol and Roman Empires have exceeded 30% of the global population. This question asks if by 2100, there will be a centralised government ruling over 80% of the world's population, and accounting for over 80% of global GDP." }, { "id": 7323, "title": "Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?", "short_title": "Semaglutide in top 300 US meds before 2032", "url_title": "Semaglutide in top 300 US meds before 2032", "slug": "semaglutide-in-top-300-us-meds-before-2032", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-05T21:04:48.641626Z", "published_at": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.879452Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-14T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-14T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7323, "title": "Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?", "created_at": "2021-06-05T21:04:48.641626Z", "open_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-09T12:23:21.251665Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-09T12:23:21.251665Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-14T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-09-14T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-14T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 4th 2021, the [U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, for the treatment of obesity. Some sources are [calling it a potential game changer](https://news.yahoo.com/know-semaglutide-diabetes-drug-being-185753456.html) for the treatment of this condition, which currently afflicts nearly three out of seven American adults. The currently approved formulation for weight loss does require administration by subcutaneous injection, although semaglutide [can be taken orally.](https://clinical.diabetesjournals.org/content/38/1/109)\n\n[The top 300 most prescribed drugs](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/Top300Drugs.aspx) in the United States account for around 97% of all prescriptions.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves positively if semaglutide, or a semaglutide-containing compound formulation approved for weight loss by the FDA, is among the top 300 most prescribed drugs in America for any calendar year up to and including 2031.", "fine_print": "Preferred source: [ClinCalc Drug Stats database](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/About.aspx). If it becomes unavailable, paywalled, discredited, etc, try to resolve according to another source that ultimately uses the [Medical Expenditure Panel Survey](https://meps.ahrq.gov/mepsweb/) data from US HHS.", "post_id": 7323, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1655741129.683799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1655741129.683799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.9059340197714197 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006813082111662306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045661515517217234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0918868402540166, 0.0, 0.060957830206119154, 0.16193689729934868, 0.015497814578501265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5439774691490451, 0.052917423781649, 0.14500482192877664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03738612702715186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0391307538660947, 0.09043497114579632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6559256240468851, 0.6682290751014637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9604734883926829, 1.266481308026224, 0.12948046043583153, 0.0, 1.2714154180589183, 0.0, 0.9244383481296953, 0.8537419995997547, 0.329024976296409, 0.0, 2.9640033812435584 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.053321235389452416, "coverage": 0.025391307214650105, "baseline_score": 1.3657343618852946, "spot_peer_score": 3.0135857914921833, "peer_archived_score": 0.053321235389452416, "baseline_archived_score": 1.3657343618852946, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.0135857914921833 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1629983398.583466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1629983398.583466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.23285062213087393, 0.7671493778691261 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 4th 2021, the [U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, for the treatment of obesity. Some sources are [calling it a potential game changer](https://news.yahoo.com/know-semaglutide-diabetes-drug-being-185753456.html) for the treatment of this condition, which currently afflicts nearly three out of seven American adults. The currently approved formulation for weight loss does require administration by subcutaneous injection, although semaglutide [can be taken orally.](https://clinical.diabetesjournals.org/content/38/1/109)\n\n[The top 300 most prescribed drugs](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/Top300Drugs.aspx) in the United States account for around 97% of all prescriptions." }, { "id": 7322, "title": "Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?", "short_title": "Trump as House Speaker before 2023-01-15", "url_title": "Trump as House Speaker before 2023-01-15", "slug": "trump-as-house-speaker-before-2023-01-15", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-05T19:58:19.625447Z", "published_at": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.959228Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-05T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-05T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 235, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7322, "title": "Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?", "created_at": "2021-06-05T19:58:19.625447Z", "open_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-08T20:56:00.320673Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-08T20:56:00.320673Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-05T04:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-05T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-05T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives),\n\n> The speaker of the United States House of Representatives, commonly known as the speaker of the House, is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The office was established in 1789 by Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution.\n\nFrom a recent [Newsweek article](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-suggests-he-may-run-house-2022-become-speaker-very-interesting-1597823),\n\n> Former President Donald Trump suggested he would consider running for a House seat in 2022 in a bid to become Speaker of the House and launch an impeachment investigation against President Joe Biden.\n\n> Trump commented on the idea during an interview broadcast by far-right radio host Wayne Allyn Root on Friday afternoon. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon first touted the idea of Trump running for Congress to take over as Speaker of the House back in February. Root raised the idea with Trump directly during his interview.\n\n> \"Why not, instead of waiting for 2024, and I'm hoping you'll run in 2024 but why not run in 2022 for the United States Congress? A House seat in Florida. Win big. Lead us to a dramatic landslide victory. Take the House by 50 seats. And then you become the Speaker of the House, lead the impeachment of Biden and start criminal investigations against Biden. You'll wipe him out for this last two years,\" Root said with excitement.\n\n> \"That's so—that's so interesting,\" Trump responded.\n\nThe speaker of the House of Representatives is typically elected at the beginning of January following the scheduled House elections every two years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Donald J. Trump is speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States before January 15, 2023. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7322, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673711135.687587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 333, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673711135.687587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 333, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.013799481294297531 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 32.07932228314925, 1.4833989741507767, 0.7683427644339345, 0.07249266985962147, 0.008621322676133983, 0.0004914542140994125, 3.229712593896234e-08, 0.00025179817997872394, 0.0, 0.15950258923632976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.664346721757839e-05, 0.0, 0.37691105832029936, 0.0, 7.752099155605752e-06, 0.0005150691786410325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016349745758454763, 0.0, 0.0458429072128551, 0.0, 0.00013356683912597994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5939296619470493e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013210379147890591 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.4398286351441256, "coverage": 0.9826530384897704, "baseline_score": 96.17512977382668, "spot_peer_score": 6.387381155746366, "peer_archived_score": 3.4398286351441256, "baseline_archived_score": 96.17512977382668, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.387381155746366 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672829744.728911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672829744.728911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 409, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives),\n\n> The speaker of the United States House of Representatives, commonly known as the speaker of the House, is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The office was established in 1789 by Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution.\n\nFrom a recent [Newsweek article](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-suggests-he-may-run-house-2022-become-speaker-very-interesting-1597823),\n\n> Former President Donald Trump suggested he would consider running for a House seat in 2022 in a bid to become Speaker of the House and launch an impeachment investigation against President Joe Biden.\n\n> Trump commented on the idea during an interview broadcast by far-right radio host Wayne Allyn Root on Friday afternoon. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon first touted the idea of Trump running for Congress to take over as Speaker of the House back in February. Root raised the idea with Trump directly during his interview.\n\n> \"Why not, instead of waiting for 2024, and I'm hoping you'll run in 2024 but why not run in 2022 for the United States Congress? A House seat in Florida. Win big. Lead us to a dramatic landslide victory. Take the House by 50 seats. And then you become the Speaker of the House, lead the impeachment of Biden and start criminal investigations against Biden. You'll wipe him out for this last two years,\" Root said with excitement.\n\n> \"That's so—that's so interesting,\" Trump responded.\n\nThe speaker of the House of Representatives is typically elected at the beginning of January following the scheduled House elections every two years." }, { "id": 7316, "title": "Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?", "short_title": "Exascale connectome mapped by June 2031", "url_title": "Exascale connectome mapped by June 2031", "slug": "exascale-connectome-mapped-by-june-2031", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-03T20:16:15.226754Z", "published_at": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.847407Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-06-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7316, "title": "Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?", "created_at": "2021-06-03T20:16:15.226754Z", "open_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-06-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-02-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Shapson-Coe et al.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.29.446289v1.full.pdf), published May 30th, 2021,\n\n> We acquired a rapidly preserved human surgical sample from the temporal lobe of the cerebral cortex. We stained a 1 mm3 volume with heavy metals, embedded it in resin, cut more than 5000 slices at ~30 nm and imaged these sections using a high-speed multibeam scanning electron microscope. We used computational methods to render the three-dimensional structure of 50,000 cells, hundreds of millions of neurites and 130 million synaptic connections. The 1.4 petabyte electron microscopy volume, the segmented cells, cell parts, blood vessels, myelin, inhibitory and excitatory synapses, and 100 manually proofread cells are [available to peruse online](https://h01-dot-neuroglancer-demo.appspot.com/). [...]\n\n> This improvement was in large part due to two noteworthy advances: fast imaging owing to multibeam scanning electron microscopy (Eberle et al. 2015) and the profound effect of AI on image processing and analysis (Januszewski et al. 2018). The rapid improvements over the past few years (Briggman, Helmstaedter, and Denk 2011; Bock et al. 2011; Helmstaedter et al. 2013; Takemura et al. 2013; Lee et al. 2016; Motta et al. 2019; Scheffer et al. 2020; Dorkenwald et al. 2020; Yin et al. 2020; Gour et al. 2021) argues that *analyzing volumes that are even three orders of magnitude larger, such as an exascale whole mouse brain connectome, will likely be in reach within a decade* (Abbott et al. 2020). [Emphasis added]\n\nSee also this [accompanying blog post from the Google AI Blog](https://ai.googleblog.com/2021/06/a-browsable-petascale-reconstruction-of.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively, if before June 1st 2031, a reliable paper, blog post, or some other article appears in the literature indicating that researchers had digitally mapped a section of an animal connectome using some high-resolution scanning technology, such by [serial section electron microscopy](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jmi.122240), and the size of that map meets or exceeds one exabyte. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "Extra junk information, such as a researcher adding 999 petabytes of zeros at the end of their file (as unlikely as this may be), cannot count towards resolution, and admins will use their discretion in this regard.", "post_id": 7316, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762882094.549254, "end_time": 1764443795.196654, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762882094.549254, "end_time": 1764443795.196654, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5731943489245055 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5764557995107527, 0.560245764355437, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288959.34752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288959.34752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.548435706063225, 0.45156429393677494 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Shapson-Coe et al.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.29.446289v1.full.pdf), published May 30th, 2021,\n\n> We acquired a rapidly preserved human surgical sample from the temporal lobe of the cerebral cortex. We stained a 1 mm3 volume with heavy metals, embedded it in resin, cut more than 5000 slices at ~30 nm and imaged these sections using a high-speed multibeam scanning electron microscope. We used computational methods to render the three-dimensional structure of 50,000 cells, hundreds of millions of neurites and 130 million synaptic connections. The 1.4 petabyte electron microscopy volume, the segmented cells, cell parts, blood vessels, myelin, inhibitory and excitatory synapses, and 100 manually proofread cells are [available to peruse online](https://h01-dot-neuroglancer-demo.appspot.com/). [...]\n\n> This improvement was in large part due to two noteworthy advances: fast imaging owing to multibeam scanning electron microscopy (Eberle et al. 2015) and the profound effect of AI on image processing and analysis (Januszewski et al. 2018). The rapid improvements over the past few years (Briggman, Helmstaedter, and Denk 2011; Bock et al. 2011; Helmstaedter et al. 2013; Takemura et al. 2013; Lee et al. 2016; Motta et al. 2019; Scheffer et al. 2020; Dorkenwald et al. 2020; Yin et al. 2020; Gour et al. 2021) argues that *analyzing volumes that are even three orders of magnitude larger, such as an exascale whole mouse brain connectome, will likely be in reach within a decade* (Abbott et al. 2020). [Emphasis added]\n\nSee also this [accompanying blog post from the Google AI Blog](https://ai.googleblog.com/2021/06/a-browsable-petascale-reconstruction-of.html)." }, { "id": 7314, "title": "Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?", "short_title": "50% Decline In Meat Production by 2040", "url_title": "50% Decline In Meat Production by 2040", "slug": "50-decline-in-meat-production-by-2040", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-03T15:11:41.472308Z", "published_at": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T13:02:31.912632Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2042-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 118, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 7314, "title": "Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?", "created_at": "2021-06-03T15:11:41.472308Z", "open_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-14T16:52:30.621963Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-14T16:52:30.621963Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2042-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Founded in 2018, [50by40](https://50by40.org/about-us/vision-and-mission) is an organisation with the mission to achieve \n>A 50% reduction in the global production and consumption of farmed animal products by 2040, with the remaining production systems being environmentally and socially sustainable, regenerative and humane, achieved via a Just Transition of the farming system. \n\nThis question asks specifically about global meat production. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production) claims global meat production in 2018 was 342.42 million tons, a 46.68% increase since 2000. A 50% reduction from this level would result in global meat production declining to 171.21 million tons, a level last seen in 1988.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if global meat production as per OurWorldInData is below 50% of its 2018 level (i.e., is 171.21 million tons or lower) in any year between 2019 and 2040 (inclusive). If OurWorldInData ceases publishing this data by this date, admins can choose a credible alternative source for resolution.\n\n*14 June 2021 edit: Cultivated meat, which is produced from [in vitro cell culture of animal cells rather than from the slaughter of livestock](https://gfi.org/science/the-science-of-cultivated-meat/), does not count toward the overall global meat production figure. Only meat coming from slaughtered animals will count, as is currently the case with Our World's in Data figure of 340M tons as of 2018. Since this 340M tons figure does not include fish/seafood, data from [FAOSTAT as tracked by OWID](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/seafood-and-fish-production-thousand-tonnes?country=~OWID_WRL) — in this case, 155M tons of seafood/fish (2013 figure) — will be added to the meat figure. Again, cultivated fish/seafood does not count. This question will not resolve until 2040 data is available for both meat and fish/seafood production.*", "fine_print": "If OWID revises their 2018 estimate at any point, or an alternative source is to be used, that source's most up-to-date 2018 value should be used where possible to ensure an appropriate comparison.", "post_id": 7314, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763746163.833118, "end_time": 1763878386.802586, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763746163.833118, "end_time": 1763878386.802586, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.212498074010453 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.1859187720050577, 0.7680834073501397, 0.7158434681537756, 0.14272018330655076, 1.071095635780821, 1.6539917844603274, 0.21531488242907412, 0.5443055684880905, 0.06983319013653787, 1.6003429417371065, 0.0020771577017466136, 1.593352278602644, 0.005796569825845474, 0.38625490680416824, 0.6195946380091034, 0.367175048704967, 0.616886461901582, 0.47821503591453723, 0.0, 0.15067616450069898, 0.0001963417582025637, 0.06551972235901421, 0.3602076433296375, 0.0, 0.7949722543641855, 0.0, 1.0005337122334896, 0.615218289588872, 0.0, 0.021765049703144152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023439708045973055, 0.13647006293955638, 0.0, 0.018719018711750256, 0.006957817787879918, 0.0, 0.593589924857176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5817603387501251, 0.11428573861229292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003077680909476925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024861979022640563, 0.866451704704282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029139700598596708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05119191192626264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15329368081236486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.953548231910527 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287635.659233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287635.659233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.880818095910138, 0.11918190408986193 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 291, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Founded in 2018, [50by40](https://50by40.org/about-us/vision-and-mission) is an organisation with the mission to achieve \n>A 50% reduction in the global production and consumption of farmed animal products by 2040, with the remaining production systems being environmentally and socially sustainable, regenerative and humane, achieved via a Just Transition of the farming system. \n\nThis question asks specifically about global meat production. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production) claims global meat production in 2018 was 342.42 million tons, a 46.68% increase since 2000. A 50% reduction from this level would result in global meat production declining to 171.21 million tons, a level last seen in 1988." } ] }
