Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4840
{ "count": 6394, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4860", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4820", "results": [ { "id": 7300, "title": "Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?", "short_title": "Gates' donation priorities diverge by 2030?", "url_title": "Gates' donation priorities diverge by 2030?", "slug": "gates-donation-priorities-diverge-by-2030", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:41:14.984943Z", "published_at": "2021-06-11T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T19:52:39.319508Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-11T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-11T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7300, "title": "Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-06-02T14:41:14.984943Z", "open_time": "2021-06-11T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-13T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-13T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundation) is an American private foundation founded by Bill and Melinda Gates. It is reported as of 2020 to be the second largest charitable foundation in the world, holding $49.8 billion in assets. Bill and Melinda were [reported](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56975466) in May 2021 to be in the process of divorcing.\n\n\nTheir statement said \"Over the last 27 years, we have raised three incredible children and built a foundation that works all over the world to enable all people to lead healthy, productive lives, We continue to share a belief in that mission and will continue our work together at the foundation, but we no longer believe we can grow together as a couple in the next phase of our lives. \"\n\nThis question asks if one of Bill or Melinda devotes significant amounts of their philanthropic efforts outside the existing Gates Foundation, such that the resources available to the foundation are meaningfully reduced.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if credible media sources indicate that either Bill or Melinda Gates have created a separate charitable entity with at least $10bn in assets or total grants, distinct from the existing foundation by December 2030. Exactly one of Bill or Melinda must be actively involved in this new organisation for this to count. Legal restructuring of the existing Gates foundation do not count, if it is still centrally managed by a board containing both Bill and Melinda or uses the name \"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation\" or similar", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7300, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763052308.945721, "end_time": 1763802973.851635, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763052308.945721, "end_time": 1763802973.851635, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8534031939940605 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19462111545643215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.016576386347562713, 0.009567827631921811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.25654816160742966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01183035414927659, 0.0, 0.16054456415221713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8756152476938748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6545749015002464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1769212063177643, 2.2519306326732766, 0.0, 0.3337872932516758, 0.0, 0.07658881074466624, 1.1844912434146235, 1.0299338106767453, 0.6392481672365632, 1.4459914658952664, 0.6902063238793004, 0.30839035763243117, 0.0, 0.11855578058059343, 0.06818282742296448, 0.8188075154929283 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287668.053862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287668.053862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17489993805363646, 0.8251000619463635 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 341, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundation) is an American private foundation founded by Bill and Melinda Gates. It is reported as of 2020 to be the second largest charitable foundation in the world, holding $49.8 billion in assets. Bill and Melinda were [reported](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56975466) in May 2021 to be in the process of divorcing.\n\n\nTheir statement said \"Over the last 27 years, we have raised three incredible children and built a foundation that works all over the world to enable all people to lead healthy, productive lives, We continue to share a belief in that mission and will continue our work together at the foundation, but we no longer believe we can grow together as a couple in the next phase of our lives. \"\n\nThis question asks if one of Bill or Melinda devotes significant amounts of their philanthropic efforts outside the existing Gates Foundation, such that the resources available to the foundation are meaningfully reduced." }, { "id": 7295, "title": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?", "short_title": "Coalition Wins Australian Federal Election", "url_title": "Coalition Wins Australian Federal Election", "slug": "coalition-wins-australian-federal-election", "author_id": 116468, "author_username": "chrisjbillington", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-31T09:07:37.990494Z", "published_at": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.528944Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-22T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-22T23:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7295, "title": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?", "created_at": "2021-05-31T09:07:37.990494Z", "open_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-22T23:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-22T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-05-22T23:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively.\n\n[From Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election):\n\n>The next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia.\n\n>All 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 or 76 (depending on whether a double dissolution is called) of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election.\n\n>The incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government, currently led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. The Labor Opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, and several other parties will also contest the election, with the Greens being the third largest party by vote.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, following the next Australian federal election, the governor-general of Australia swears in a prime minister supplied by the Liberal/National Coalition.\n\nIt resolves negatively if the governor-general swears in a prime minister supplied by another party or coalition\n\nIf no party is able to form a stable government following the next election, the question will resolve according to the results of the first election where a party is able to form a stable government.\n\nIf the political structure of Australia is changed such that the head of government is no longer nominated by parties in a democratically elected house of the legislature, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nIf at any time at least 24 hours after polls open for the associated election, this question has a community prediction at least as confident as 4% or 96%, the question will close (but not resolve) 18 hours after that time.", "fine_print": "\"The next federal election\" refers to the election for members of the House of Representatives of the 47th parliament of Australia.\n\nNormally this would be at the same time as a half-Senate election (or a full Senate election in the case of a double dissolution), but in the unlikely event that the elections are held at different times, this question refers to the election for the House of Representatives only.", "post_id": 7295, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653254935.715332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653254935.715332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.051743231087245406 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 14.327916473771463, 0.8144786686358294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24106033391707232, 0.22712436764182956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1894737038742432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1302098204863742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13431553521033046, 0.01382753425254863, 0.11621054643019901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8122861312345873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011519742289570785, 0.0, 0.23603737980601724, 0.058370474739075626, 0.0, 0.10451376988008468, 0.10043363367791468, 0.10719724868440655, 0.0, 0.019589177792223862, 0.10035680769537357, 0.0, 0.058496611656208536, 0.0, 0.1619810579904582, 0.06217576471753762, 0.0022267761436016178, 0.029902126006212323, 0.0, 0.03445445047416987, 0.0, 0.0036749449916905963, 0.013401170795758532, 0.002539280627490721, 0.0, 0.00523459102066179, 0.0007442701451381057, 0.008474961322080577, 0.0014557515078758613, 0.007084270917400775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008934406256051884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0579104283009519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010606664926521671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021721036730799502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005162769561062351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.065953491339624, "coverage": 0.6116465289338036, "baseline_score": 5.2130637926030525, "spot_peer_score": 6.830011599166103, "peer_archived_score": 4.065953491339624, "baseline_archived_score": 5.2130637926030525, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.830011599166103 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653254935.738952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653254935.738952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.986824629823187, 0.013175370176813079 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 313, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively.\n\n[From Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election):\n\n>The next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia.\n\n>All 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 or 76 (depending on whether a double dissolution is called) of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election.\n\n>The incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government, currently led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. The Labor Opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, and several other parties will also contest the election, with the Greens being the third largest party by vote." }, { "id": 7291, "title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?", "short_title": "Elizabeth Holmes convicted of Theranos fraud?", "url_title": "Elizabeth Holmes convicted of Theranos fraud?", "slug": "elizabeth-holmes-convicted-of-theranos-fraud", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-29T01:02:00.112383Z", "published_at": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.175831Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-04T00:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-04T00:15:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 126, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7291, "title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-05-29T01:02:00.112383Z", "open_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-01T07:51:40.130715Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-01T07:51:40.130715Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-04T00:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-04T00:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-04T00:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Elizabeth Holmes and Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani are charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and nine counts of wire fraud.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/us-v-elizabeth-holmes-et-al)\n\nAccording to [the indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/page/file/1135066/download), the charges stem from allegations that Holmes and Balwani engaged in a multi-million-dollar scheme to defraud investors, and a separate scheme to defraud doctors and patients. Both schemes involved efforts to promote Theranos, a company founded by Holmes and based in Palo Alto, California.\n\nTheranos was a private health care and life sciences company with the stated mission to revolutionize medical laboratory testing through allegedly innovative methods for drawing blood, testing blood, and interpreting the resulting patient data.\n\nHolmes and Balwani used advertisements and solicitations to encourage and induce doctors and patients to use Theranos’s blood testing laboratory services, even though, according to the government, the defendants knew Theranos was not capable of consistently producing accurate and reliable results for certain blood tests. It is further alleged that the tests performed on Theranos technology were likely to contain inaccurate and unreliable results. Holmes denies the charges and is presumed to be innocent. \n\nTheranos raised more than $700 million from venture capitalists and private investors, resulting in a $10 billion valuation at its peak in 2013 and 2014. By 2015, [Forbes had named Holmes the youngest and wealthiest self-made female billionaire in America.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2015/05/27/forbes-announces-inaugural-list-of-americas-50-richest-self-made-women/)\n\nA turning point came later in 2015 when medical research professors John Ioannidis and Eleftherios Diamandis, along with investigative journalist John Carreyrou of The Wall Street Journal, questioned the validity of Theranos' technology. The company faced a string of legal and commercial challenges from medical authorities, investors, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, state attorneys general, former business partners, patients, and others. By June 2016, it was estimated that Holmes' personal net worth had dropped from $4.5 billion to virtually nothing. After efforts to find a buyer went nowhere, what remained of the company dissolved on September 4, 2018.\n\nHolmes is currently awaiting trial. The jury selection process will begin soon, [subject to further legal wrangling](https://www.wsj.com/articles/theranos-founder-elizabeth-holmes-has-over-100-questions-for-jurors-11622217048), with the [trial expected to commence on August 31.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/17/elizabeth-holmes-trial-pushed-to-august-after-surprise-pregnancy-announcement.html) However, the trial has been delayed a number of times, and it may be delayed again. According to [a jury questionnaire proposed by Holmes' lawyers](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.327949/gov.uscourts.cand.327949.808.0.pdf), the trial is expected to last 13 weeks, or possibly longer.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, Elizabeth Holmes is convicted of any charge of fraud, or conspiracy to commit fraud, in connection with Theranos. A conviction on any other charges will not count towards resolution. \n\nIf Holmes is not convicted on fraud charges connected to Theranos before 1 January 2023, this question resolves negatively. If Holmes' trial ends without a verdict, that will not automatically cause negative resolution, as it is possible that Holmes could be convicted in a subsequent retrial before 1 January 2023.\n\nIf this question is still open on the date that a verdict is rendered, a plea leading to conviction is entered, or the charges against Holmes are dismissed, the question should resolve retroactively to the time and date such an event is announced by the court, or by representatives of two opposing parties to the case", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7291, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635689067.640497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635689067.640497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7974227789715216 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07261041622427898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023714766002371636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007443479684201042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18533687828373469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9001853911563688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.300951391596124, 0.28004799424776483, 0.0004260854925110702, 0.2416653352755348, 0.32397229955951046, 0.9144399892686675, 3.428400875241537, 0.12747681546481032, 2.244971424939955, 0.36444555273004947, 0.4983997010722993, 2.569342516362959, 1.0097836432313998, 2.0747373064615764, 1.0836614410664829, 0.004984187454833235, 0.30999980276618205, 0.004947403540845617, 0.010135384321086132, 0.058222079670553574, 0.07869116470339843, 1.5494553514650253, 0.6104176094843221, 0.11012927050941185, 0.0, 0.00013480106312898868, 1.2933381358095466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2712043169366688 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.323804639916679, "coverage": 0.9999952389089243, "baseline_score": 69.42552766219988, "spot_peer_score": -7.011148584328927, "peer_archived_score": 1.323804639916679, "baseline_archived_score": 69.42552766219988, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.011148584328927 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635689067.663803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635689067.663803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1823419874803205, 0.8176580125196795 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 301, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Elizabeth Holmes and Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani are charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and nine counts of wire fraud.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/us-v-elizabeth-holmes-et-al)\n\nAccording to [the indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/page/file/1135066/download), the charges stem from allegations that Holmes and Balwani engaged in a multi-million-dollar scheme to defraud investors, and a separate scheme to defraud doctors and patients. Both schemes involved efforts to promote Theranos, a company founded by Holmes and based in Palo Alto, California.\n\nTheranos was a private health care and life sciences company with the stated mission to revolutionize medical laboratory testing through allegedly innovative methods for drawing blood, testing blood, and interpreting the resulting patient data.\n\nHolmes and Balwani used advertisements and solicitations to encourage and induce doctors and patients to use Theranos’s blood testing laboratory services, even though, according to the government, the defendants knew Theranos was not capable of consistently producing accurate and reliable results for certain blood tests. It is further alleged that the tests performed on Theranos technology were likely to contain inaccurate and unreliable results. Holmes denies the charges and is presumed to be innocent. \n\nTheranos raised more than $700 million from venture capitalists and private investors, resulting in a $10 billion valuation at its peak in 2013 and 2014. By 2015, [Forbes had named Holmes the youngest and wealthiest self-made female billionaire in America.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2015/05/27/forbes-announces-inaugural-list-of-americas-50-richest-self-made-women/)\n\nA turning point came later in 2015 when medical research professors John Ioannidis and Eleftherios Diamandis, along with investigative journalist John Carreyrou of The Wall Street Journal, questioned the validity of Theranos' technology. The company faced a string of legal and commercial challenges from medical authorities, investors, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, state attorneys general, former business partners, patients, and others. By June 2016, it was estimated that Holmes' personal net worth had dropped from $4.5 billion to virtually nothing. After efforts to find a buyer went nowhere, what remained of the company dissolved on September 4, 2018.\n\nHolmes is currently awaiting trial. The jury selection process will begin soon, [subject to further legal wrangling](https://www.wsj.com/articles/theranos-founder-elizabeth-holmes-has-over-100-questions-for-jurors-11622217048), with the [trial expected to commence on August 31.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/17/elizabeth-holmes-trial-pushed-to-august-after-surprise-pregnancy-announcement.html) However, the trial has been delayed a number of times, and it may be delayed again. According to [a jury questionnaire proposed by Holmes' lawyers](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.327949/gov.uscourts.cand.327949.808.0.pdf), the trial is expected to last 13 weeks, or possibly longer." }, { "id": 7288, "title": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?", "short_title": "\"Somerton Man\" father of \"Jestyn's\" son", "url_title": "\"Somerton Man\" father of \"Jestyn's\" son", "slug": "somerton-man-father-of-jestyns-son", "author_id": 113018, "author_username": "Grigfall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-28T10:54:30.525610Z", "published_at": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T20:02:03.750643Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7288, "title": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?", "created_at": "2021-05-28T10:54:30.525610Z", "open_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-16T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-16T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On 1 December 1948, a man was found dead on Somerton Beach in Adelaide. Of all the mysterious details of the case - [including missing socks, another man's name on the tags of his clothing, speculated links to World War 2 spying operations, allegations of marrying for DNA, potential digitalis poisoning and the thighs of a ballet dancer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamam_Shud_case) - the most interesting was a slip of paper. \n\nDuring the inquest, conducted in June 1949, a torn scrap of paper with the words \"Tamam Shud\" printed on it was found in a hidden pocket in the man's trousers. Persian for \"The End\", these words conclude the *Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam*, a book of poetry. When the find was reported, a man handed in a copy of the book that he had found dropped through the open window in the back of his car. \n\nThe \"Tamam Shud\" scrap had been torn from this book, which contained a series of letters, perhaps a secret code, the word \"JEstyn\" and a phone number. The phone number belonged to Jessica \"Jestyn\" Thomson. Thomson lived 400 metres north of where the Somerton Man's body was found. When shown the plaster bust of the Somerton Man, she almost fainted - and then claimed to not recognise him. \n\nJess Thomson's son Robin was born in July 1947. Robin apparently shares two unusual genetic features with the Somerton Man: a larger upper-ear hollow than lower-ear hollow and hypodontia of the incisors. \n\nBoth Jess and Robin Thomson are now deceased, but [Robin Thomson's daughter Rachel Egan has volunteered her DNA to be compared to that of the Somerton Man to see if he may be her grandfather.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-15/a-marriage-and-a-mystery-somerton-man-romantic-twist/11377458) \n\nAs well as the possibility that there is no match, there is also the risk that not enough DNA is recovered as the Somerton Man's body was embalmed. [The remains, exhumed in May 2021, are in \"reasonable\" condition but there is no timeframe for results to be announced.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-20/somerton-man-forensic-process-following-exhumation/100150868) \n\n***Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family? (\"Tamam Shud\" case)***\n\nForensic Science SA or another scientific authority confirms that Rachel Egan or another member of the Thomson family is related to the Somerton Man, or says that such a relation is over 50% likely.\n\nIf there is no positive confirmation by December 31, 2025, this question resolves negative. If no test is performed, this question resolves ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7288, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762999908.94031, "end_time": 1763777717.529104, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762999908.94031, "end_time": 1763777717.529104, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.875, 0.125 ], "means": [ 0.1978566133880386 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?", "short_title": "Ban on Genetically Unmodified Humans", "url_title": "Ban on Genetically Unmodified Humans", "slug": "ban-on-genetically-unmodified-humans", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-24T23:34:53.398011Z", "published_at": "2022-01-24T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:12:56.202086Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-24T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-02T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-24T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural 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"recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Our genes are the biologically encoded information from which we are built. Important traits known to be affected by our genes include aspects of [intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) and [mental illness](https://www.nimh.nih.gov/about/advisory-boards-and-groups/namhc/reports/genetics-and-mental-disorders-report-of-the-national-institute-of-mental-healths-genetics-workgroup). Many physical traits, such as [height](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-much-of-human-height/), [attractiveness](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6448827/), [strength](https://journals.lww.com/acsm-healthfitness/fulltext/2007/03000/genetic_roles_in_muscle_strength.8.aspx), and even [longevity](https://medlineplus.gov/genetics/understanding/traits/longevity/) likewise strongly depend on the genes we have.\n\nAs the human genome and related human biological areas of inquiry became better understood, genetic engineering has become known. In the case of traits affected by simple genetic factors, it has been possible for years to change these genes, and the resulting trait(s) expressed, by means such as CRISPR/Cas9.\n\nThe pace of genetic engineering research, as measured by papers published worldwide, shows a clear trend to be growing. There is every reason to believe that as a result of this research trend, genetic engineering technology will tend to become safer, more powerful, and less expensive with time.\n\nHuman reproduction as we typically know it results in one's genes constituting a mixture of two previously existing humans' genes which were themselves selected in this manner and so on. Artificial means of reproduction still rely on the bulk DNA transfers from existing humans. Presently, genetic engineering for new humans is [exceptional](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00673-1), as well as taboo. \n\nThe gaussian distribution of genetic traits means that most humans won't have the most advantageous genes in most areas. Further, rather undesirable traits are ubiquitous: we all age.\n\nIf genetic engineering reaches the level where it is possible to safely and reliably eliminate the possibility of traits widely considered undesirable, such as predisposition toward schizophrenia, cystic fibrosis, or intellectual disability, there is good reason to think that humans may consider such genetic modification an ethical imperative. This is one scenario.\n\nHuman intelligence is one of the most complicated constructs of substantial genetic determination. Even so, it is possible that humanity could come by a sufficient understanding of the relationship to set humans-to-be with brains optimized to be as smart as possible. It may not be so easy to reach a consensus recognizing these types of modifications as ethnically necessary.\n\nOf course, it goes on. Any desirable trait controlled by genetics can in principle be added by genetic engineering, and any undesirable trait removed. Consequently, the space for possible legal mandates in this field is immense. \n\nOn environment: redwoods have genetics to grow very tall, but if you take one to the desert, it won't work very well (or at all). So while environment interacts with genes, the genes provide the foundation for what the environment has to work with.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2100, any jurisdiction passes any law(s) requiring all births to eliminate or promote certain gene(s) through gene editing techniques. \"Gene editing techniques\" means here [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing), or any techniques which directly and selectively modify targeted genes. The genetic engineering techniques may occur at any time in the individual's lifespan, including before birth, after birth, or before conception. This question will only include jurisdictions which govern a population of at least 1 million people at the time the law is in effect.\n\nLaws only requiring genetic testing or sterilizing/forbidding reproduction by individuals or couples carrying certain genes are not included for the purposes of this question. Forms of artificial selection such as [embryo selection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation#Embryo_selection), or abortion/[extermination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide) of non-compliant genomes are not included for the purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "To resolve this question, the relevant law must be enforced for at least one birth. That is, if a law is passed but struck down by a court before it is applied, or if such a law is passed but never enforced, this will not resolve the question.", "post_id": 7250, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757639565.981023, "end_time": 1775269135.66062, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757639565.981023, "end_time": 1775269135.66062, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5299791946364653 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.004155532194542278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9290425495729547, 0.0, 0.2674291063988385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15403038672881103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7104289439189292, 0.0, 0.1472607563769713, 0.0, 0.023714766002371646, 0.4014460966988249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12285936175103183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019870815656341127, 0.049233607049991815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1226831864486109, 0.06805199387035807, 0.0, 1.2223453144764784, 0.054982568596560574, 1.4273870684649608, 0.819603075852047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6885697844865937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013286097205509028, 0.03199297012942867, 0.19159665368594173, 0.0, 0.9350864571275419, 0.03472799489688131, 0.8738508717282191, 0.017967096637953702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08346609532897402, 0.0, 0.043962607759905424, 0.0, 0.0, 1.975812967871949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16098235374781072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38097452378090885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4960965120584363 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289861.430782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289861.430782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6964339807972159, 0.30356601920278414 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 155, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Our genes are the biologically encoded information from which we are built. Important traits known to be affected by our genes include aspects of [intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) and [mental illness](https://www.nimh.nih.gov/about/advisory-boards-and-groups/namhc/reports/genetics-and-mental-disorders-report-of-the-national-institute-of-mental-healths-genetics-workgroup). Many physical traits, such as [height](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-much-of-human-height/), [attractiveness](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6448827/), [strength](https://journals.lww.com/acsm-healthfitness/fulltext/2007/03000/genetic_roles_in_muscle_strength.8.aspx), and even [longevity](https://medlineplus.gov/genetics/understanding/traits/longevity/) likewise strongly depend on the genes we have.\n\nAs the human genome and related human biological areas of inquiry became better understood, genetic engineering has become known. In the case of traits affected by simple genetic factors, it has been possible for years to change these genes, and the resulting trait(s) expressed, by means such as CRISPR/Cas9.\n\nThe pace of genetic engineering research, as measured by papers published worldwide, shows a clear trend to be growing. There is every reason to believe that as a result of this research trend, genetic engineering technology will tend to become safer, more powerful, and less expensive with time.\n\nHuman reproduction as we typically know it results in one's genes constituting a mixture of two previously existing humans' genes which were themselves selected in this manner and so on. Artificial means of reproduction still rely on the bulk DNA transfers from existing humans. Presently, genetic engineering for new humans is [exceptional](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00673-1), as well as taboo. \n\nThe gaussian distribution of genetic traits means that most humans won't have the most advantageous genes in most areas. Further, rather undesirable traits are ubiquitous: we all age.\n\nIf genetic engineering reaches the level where it is possible to safely and reliably eliminate the possibility of traits widely considered undesirable, such as predisposition toward schizophrenia, cystic fibrosis, or intellectual disability, there is good reason to think that humans may consider such genetic modification an ethical imperative. This is one scenario.\n\nHuman intelligence is one of the most complicated constructs of substantial genetic determination. Even so, it is possible that humanity could come by a sufficient understanding of the relationship to set humans-to-be with brains optimized to be as smart as possible. It may not be so easy to reach a consensus recognizing these types of modifications as ethnically necessary.\n\nOf course, it goes on. Any desirable trait controlled by genetics can in principle be added by genetic engineering, and any undesirable trait removed. Consequently, the space for possible legal mandates in this field is immense. \n\nOn environment: redwoods have genetics to grow very tall, but if you take one to the desert, it won't work very well (or at all). So while environment interacts with genes, the genes provide the foundation for what the environment has to work with." }, { "id": 7246, "title": "Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?", "short_title": "Water Shortage in the US 2021", "url_title": "Water Shortage in the US 2021", "slug": "water-shortage-in-the-us-2021", "author_id": 107659, "author_username": "deKlik", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-24T14:44:00.788842Z", "published_at": "2021-06-14T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.463566Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-14T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-29T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-29T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-16T23:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-16T23:21:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-14T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7246, "title": "Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-05-24T14:44:00.788842Z", "open_time": "2021-06-14T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-15T01:38:41.401057Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-15T01:38:41.401057Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-16T23:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-16T23:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-16T23:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-29T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-29T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "There is speculation that the US federal government needs to declare first-ever official shortage declaration in the US West. That would mean mandatory water cutbacks in some states. \n\nABC News: [US West prepares for possible 1st water shortage declaration](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-west-prepares-1st-water-shortage-declaration-77139468). \n\nNPR: [Melting Snow Usually Means Water For The West. But \nThis Year, It Might Not Be Enough](https://text.npr.org/998566953)\n\n***Will the U.S. Federal government issue its first-ever shortage declaration in the U.S. West in 2021?***\n\nResolves true if the US Federal government agency (most likely USBR) declares a water shortage in some states or regions in the US in 2021. The declaration must be published on relevant federal government website like [United States Bureau of Reclamation](https://www.usbr.gov/), \n[U.S Department of Interior](https://www.doi.gov/),\nor [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7246, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625000251.067108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625000251.067108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6163399404423778 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-23T18:19:22.007976Z", "published_at": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T09:17:34.135121Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", 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Senators both be Republicans?", "created_at": "2021-05-23T18:19:22.007976Z", "open_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-28T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-28T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/)\n* [If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/)\n\n----\n\nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\n\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n\n>“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\n\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\n\n>We support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\n\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\n\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Republican Party\\(^{†}\\), as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party\\(^{†}\\), including if they are independents who caucus with Republicans.\n\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to January 1, 2035, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.", "fine_print": "\\(^{†}\\) If both elected senators are members of a Repubilcan Party Affiliate (for example, the [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party) for the Democratic Party), they will be considered Republicans for this question, assuming the Republican Party does not endorse or support competing candidates in Puerto Rico (on or immediately prior to the general election day).\n\nSenators will be \"elected prior to 2035-01-01\" if their election day is prior to 2035-01-01, regardless of when they are projected by election media, or when they take office.", "post_id": 7244, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763025443.384205, "end_time": 1765004814.007437, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763025443.384205, "end_time": 1765004814.007437, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.18310678286629928 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8570026340065788, 0.0, 0.10520831475336019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8362385128992932, 0.6220865835985105, 0.0, 0.0876562031162544, 0.2106750195973517, 0.39294036698586693, 0.0, 0.7922460993238396, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6711691820333144, 0.06825837252413955, 1.6856458888356913, 0.9653017148915056, 0.0, 1.2484431627796022, 0.0, 0.1387803475283947, 0.44358054667768915, 0.0, 0.010488891604094424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024016566893208465, 0.0, 0.26018954487551793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10462498218595287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01328166791512114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008023442444365229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3395232167316722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05224102104996991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4836050927143443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12426951433661654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0775030084782564 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287503.198615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287503.198615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9150325894482555, 0.0849674105517445 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 166, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/)\n* [If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/)\n\n----\n\nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\n\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n\n>“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\n\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\n\n>We support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\n\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\n\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)" }, { "id": 7243, "title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?", "short_title": "1st Senators from Puerto Rico both Democrats", "url_title": "1st Senators from Puerto Rico both Democrats", "slug": "1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-23T18:02:32.439895Z", "published_at": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:22:19.740636Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7243, "title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?", "created_at": "2021-05-23T18:02:32.439895Z", "open_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-27T11:00:20.106664Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-27T11:00:20.106664Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/)\n* [If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/)\n\n----\n\nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\n\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n\n>“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\n\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\n\n>We support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\n\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\n\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Democratic Party\\(^{†}\\), as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party\\(^{†}\\), including if they are independents who caucus with Democrats.\n\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to January 1, 2035, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.", "fine_print": "\\(^{†}\\) If both elected senators are members of a Democratic Party Affiliate (for example, the [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party)) they will be considered Democrats for this question, assuming the Democratic Party does not endorse or support competing candidates in Puerto Rico (on or immediately prior to the general election day).\n\nSenators will be \"elected prior to 2035-01-01\" if their election day is prior to 2035-01-01, regardless of when they are projected by election media, or when they take office.", "post_id": 7243, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763266398.471829, "end_time": 1764882075.123185, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763266398.471829, "end_time": 1764882075.123185, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5961939481352116 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8113610949475989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30199423264781133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007981569988183952, 0.6227159619137227, 0.25562848828361623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020174776830818433, 0.006447634808499139, 1.612444331029952, 0.0, 0.1368859382907578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22505015160621472, 0.662605547664316, 0.4160350980997906, 0.0, 0.5145119581540623, 1.4798517967472415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646867954196921, 0.34970267211918826, 0.9384117022430085, 0.0, 0.10227296739520486, 0.0, 0.14637042573136477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.411340183775652, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2278236963926512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09244601710264838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07504299001539197 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289305.059392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289305.059392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5670134415611703, 0.43298655843882966 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 224, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/)\n* [If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/)\n\n----\n\nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\n\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n\n>“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\n\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\n\n>We support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\n\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\n\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)" }, { "id": 7240, "title": "Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022?", "short_title": "Polymarket Default by End of 2022", "url_title": "Polymarket Default by End of 2022", "slug": "polymarket-default-by-end-of-2022", "author_id": 104023, "author_username": "yagudin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-22T12:23:47.128269Z", "published_at": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.514079Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-22T20:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-22T20:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-08T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-08T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7240, "title": "Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022?", "created_at": "2021-05-22T12:23:47.128269Z", "open_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-27T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-08T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-08T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-22T20:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-22T20:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Polymarket is a prediction market platform. Polymarket has grown to host more than $100 million in total volume to date.\n\n------\n\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\n\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n\n- Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ coins, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users.\n- DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted.\n\n***Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market?***\n\n- Market is considered to be \"wrongfully resolved\" if Polymarket confirms that or if a supermajority of Metaculus moderators/admins (2/3) thinks that the resolution does not correspond to resolution criteria.\n - This question will not resolve positively if the affected users are compensated within a week after the problem is noticed (e.g. on Polymarket Discord).\n- This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n - A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week.\n - A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count.\n - A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count.\n- If the platform ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their coins &c.\n- A hack resulting in loss of client's coins would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n - If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively.\n- In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is.\n\nIf no such qualifying event occurs before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve negatively.\n\n[fine-print]\n\n[Edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-27: clarified that a supermajority is 2/3.\n\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7240, "aggregations": { 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These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted." }, { "id": 7235, "title": "Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "short_title": "Binance Default by End of 2022", "url_title": "Binance Default by End of 2022", "slug": "binance-default-by-end-of-2022", "author_id": 104023, "author_username": "yagudin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-22T12:23:20.025154Z", "published_at": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.357790Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-22T20:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-22T20:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7235, "title": "Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "created_at": "2021-05-22T12:23:20.025154Z", "open_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-27T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-22T20:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-22T20:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Binance is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. As of April 2021, Binance was the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world in terms of the trading volume.\n\n------\n\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\n\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n\n- Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users.\n- DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted.", "resolution_criteria": "- This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n - A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week.\n - A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count.\n - A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count.\n- If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c.\n- A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n - If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively.\n- In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7235, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647975094.790601, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647975094.790601, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06222267266878391 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.8239846528537953, 1.6303632467445763, 0.6827039887321894, 1.0349936486581384, 2.7946421734223126, 0.6048463024263276, 0.1790715529949378, 0.1061981125451795, 0.1397044334600288, 0.9891884836549599, 0.09652999644366464, 0.09579000750583701, 0.0, 0.3919784319678281, 0.3330475693304005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44181099202797386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14294776347577356, 0.0, 0.04888313629975682, 0.0, 0.029133191509986833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20728428597607368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007406772822704901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009168893311555158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647975094.820293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647975094.820293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.969852323994882, 0.030147676005118026 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Binance is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. As of April 2021, Binance was the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world in terms of the trading volume.\n\n------\n\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\n\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n\n- Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users.\n- DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted." }, { "id": 7231, "title": "Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?", "short_title": "Global trade exceeds 61% of GWP by 2026", "url_title": "Global trade exceeds 61% of GWP by 2026", "slug": "global-trade-exceeds-61-of-gwp-by-2026", "author_id": 118218, "author_username": "qjh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-20T20:51:51.607352Z", "published_at": "2021-05-27T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.106970Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-27T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-05-27T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7231, "title": "Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?", "created_at": "2021-05-20T20:51:51.607352Z", "open_time": "2021-05-27T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-29T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-29T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Global trade has increased from [27% of GWP in 1970 to 61% in 2008](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS). This has brought benefits such as [poverty alleviation](https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/the-role-of-trade-in-ending-poverty) and lower prices for consumers, but has also been targeted for deleterious effects on labour in developed countries, such as [suppression of wages](https://www.epi.org/press/globalization-lowered-wages-american-workers/). As such, trade has been a political point of consternation in many countries.\n\nPossibly because of that, trade as a percentage of GWP has not exceeded the peak value of 60.789%, though in 2011, 2012, and 2019, the the value of global trade exceeded 60% of GWP.\n\nThe past few years however have witnessed the signing of the [RCEP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership) and [CPTPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-Pacific_Partnership) trade agreements, the former being the biggest trade bloc in history.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if trade as a percentage of GWP, [as published by the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS), exceeds 61% between 2020 and 2025, inclusive; otherwise it resolves negative. Resolution would be ambiguous if the World Bank ceases to exist or publish this data and no alternate data source can be found", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7231, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703715206.724678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6223929704330557 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703715206.724678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6223929704330557 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5318442312502772 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 1.5053790060954042, 1.488388854469705, 0.5889878087951695, 0.0, 0.33612582939913255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3514677730431416, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.3022135829173027, 0.0, 1.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008285.72473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008285.72473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.49310571782303436, 0.5068942821769656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Global trade has increased from [27% of GWP in 1970 to 61% in 2008](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS). This has brought benefits such as [poverty alleviation](https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/the-role-of-trade-in-ending-poverty) and lower prices for consumers, but has also been targeted for deleterious effects on labour in developed countries, such as [suppression of wages](https://www.epi.org/press/globalization-lowered-wages-american-workers/). As such, trade has been a political point of consternation in many countries.\n\nPossibly because of that, trade as a percentage of GWP has not exceeded the peak value of 60.789%, though in 2011, 2012, and 2019, the the value of global trade exceeded 60% of GWP.\n\nThe past few years however have witnessed the signing of the [RCEP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership) and [CPTPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-Pacific_Partnership) trade agreements, the former being the biggest trade bloc in history." }, { "id": 7230, "title": "Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "short_title": "FTX Default by End of 2022", "url_title": "FTX Default by End of 2022", "slug": "ftx-default-by-end-of-2022", "author_id": 104023, "author_username": "yagudin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-20T18:17:55.043720Z", "published_at": "2021-05-24T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.307885Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-24T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-14T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-24T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7230, "title": "Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "created_at": "2021-05-20T18:17:55.043720Z", "open_time": "2021-05-24T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-26T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-26T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-14T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-22T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-22T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[FTX](https://ftx.com/) is a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange platform. FTX offers products including derivatives, options, volatility products, and leveraged tokens. Note that the question concerns FTX and not [FTX.US](https://ftx.us/).\n\n------\n\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\n\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n\n- Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users.\n- DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted.", "resolution_criteria": "- This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n - A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week.\n - A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count.\n - A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count.\n- A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n - If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively.\n- In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7230, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647972350.664629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647972350.664629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04624554804909622 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.446934356902584, 1.2571120296766813, 1.0431160891574365, 1.3475269935481613, 0.9693131194466559, 0.6609704774759386, 0.0, 0.014335762373467701, 0.0, 0.6062666629314708, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18967896317068483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027344313508279407, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -21.66284088868653, "coverage": 0.9993992637848087, "baseline_score": -271.98897267916936, "spot_peer_score": 82.66785731844683, "peer_archived_score": -21.66284088868653, "baseline_archived_score": -271.98897267916936, "spot_peer_archived_score": 82.66785731844683 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647972350.710233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647972350.710233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.987492655816537, 0.012507344183463026 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[FTX](https://ftx.com/) is a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange platform. FTX offers products including derivatives, options, volatility products, and leveraged tokens. Note that the question concerns FTX and not [FTX.US](https://ftx.us/).\n\n------\n\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\n\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n\n- Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users.\n- DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted." }, { "id": 7227, "title": "Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024", "url_title": "Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024", "slug": "armed-conflict-chinataiwan-by-2024", "author_id": 117985, "author_username": "INtheway", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-18T22:41:25.921016Z", "published_at": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.826465Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 264, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7227, "title": "Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2021-05-18T22:41:25.921016Z", "open_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-15T23:23:02.531605Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-15T23:23:02.531605Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.” \n\nRecently, there has been increased [military activity](https://globaltaiwan.org/2021/04/vol-6-issue-8/#JohnDotson04212021) in the Taiwan Straits. Spokespersons for the People's Republic of China and state media outlets have characterized recent PLA exercise activity as a response to provocative moves by the United States and “Taiwan secessionists.”\n\nAgainst the backdrop of [a Taiwan Strait transit](https://twitter.com/USPacificFleet/status/1379831671520776194) conducted on April 7 by the US Navy destroyer USS John McCain, plus [operations in the South China Sea](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv15x3QHSh8) involving the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the USS Makin Island amphibious-ready group, Beijing appears to be [publicizing](https://news.cgtn.com/news/796b544f336b7a6333566d54/share_p.html) its military operations as a component of a broader pressure campaign directed against Taiwan. \n\nThese developments raise the prospect of a military confrontation between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China in the next few years. Possible triggers could include real or perceived Taiwanese assertions of national sovereignty, or the real or perceived warming of US-Taiwan relations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 and December 31, 2023, either of the following occur:\n\n- There are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China.\n- There are at least three credible news reports that an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China.\n\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in (a) an exchange of weapon fire or detonations and/or (b) one or more battle-related deaths or injuries. Notice that, as defined, an armed conflict need not result in death or injury, unless it involves hand-to-hand combat", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7227, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074206.387062, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 265, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074206.387062, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 265, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.023098521817657425 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.753081814337676, 7.396519406434265, 1.3924766302374558, 0.5226702324366186, 0.2660199147468659, 1.1505907980624361, 0.5960311591717555, 0.3962260143981674, 0.3012306064573722, 0.3309818022102361, 0.46865956095604855, 0.0002237877002896756, 0.09373979614320269, 0.02630743162412503, 0.028495407213887183, 0.07438043672065718, 1.1423463562503293e-05, 0.014622790119243336, 0.0003022992563260577, 0.00048535483167159055, 0.2526015757371905, 0.009077696618273533, 0.2889511546422746, 0.0046452303877696655, 0.26790020689932353, 0.1167169784590541, 0.0, 0.011246770800191213, 0.07668827948670962, 0.0, 0.18246049606567383, 2.6609082593834504e-05, 1.2001436679617588e-06, 1.0303889910748849e-05, 1.790113575555789e-05, 3.1337840541392128e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 5.998703683723304e-05, 0.0, 0.023192599920459706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7204344096947835e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006525983604780207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0366991709178693e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004873769155549687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4353020981625245e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007960229452581468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.856549438553202, "coverage": 0.999445694873937, "baseline_score": 80.54642576201425, "spot_peer_score": 25.61470881277767, "peer_archived_score": 9.856549438553202, "baseline_archived_score": 80.54642576201425, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.61470881277767 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703405295.793825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703405295.793825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 38, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 703, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.” \n\nRecently, there has been increased [military activity](https://globaltaiwan.org/2021/04/vol-6-issue-8/#JohnDotson04212021) in the Taiwan Straits. Spokespersons for the People's Republic of China and state media outlets have characterized recent PLA exercise activity as a response to provocative moves by the United States and “Taiwan secessionists.”\n\nAgainst the backdrop of [a Taiwan Strait transit](https://twitter.com/USPacificFleet/status/1379831671520776194) conducted on April 7 by the US Navy destroyer USS John McCain, plus [operations in the South China Sea](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv15x3QHSh8) involving the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the USS Makin Island amphibious-ready group, Beijing appears to be [publicizing](https://news.cgtn.com/news/796b544f336b7a6333566d54/share_p.html) its military operations as a component of a broader pressure campaign directed against Taiwan. \n\nThese developments raise the prospect of a military confrontation between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China in the next few years. Possible triggers could include real or perceived Taiwanese assertions of national sovereignty, or the real or perceived warming of US-Taiwan relations." }, { "id": 7225, "title": "Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "short_title": "Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q6", "url_title": "Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q6", "slug": "israel-palestine-crisis-2021-q6", "author_id": 116036, "author_username": "GlobalGuessing", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-18T15:26:17.965279Z", "published_at": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.241995Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T18:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T18:27:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7225, "title": "Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-05-18T15:26:17.965279Z", "open_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-20T14:51:49.704341Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-20T14:51:49.704341Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T18:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T18:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-30T18:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "# Background\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\n\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\n\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\n\nSources for live-updates:\n\n* [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com)\n* [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com)\n\n# Question\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\n\n**Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?**\n\n- Implications: (A) Unless dramatic increase in fire rate, greatly extended fighting, (B) More foreign funding of Hamas than likely expected\n\nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\n## Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n* [Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/)\n* [Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/)\n* [Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/)\n* [Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/)\n\n\nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\n# Base-Rate Data\n\nUN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties\n\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\n# Question with Resolution Criteria", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if both the [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Palestinian_rocket_attacks_on_Israel_in_2021) and [Jewish Virtual Library](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/palestinian-rocket-and-mortar-attacks-against-israel) pages report over 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel from Palestine in 2021.", "fine_print": "If only one of the sources reports over 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel, and the difference between the sources is more than 750 instances, then the question will resolve ambiguously. Otherwise it resolves positively.", "post_id": 7225, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636521560.229799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636521560.229799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.05609446204717881 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.048183473087016, 1.6124869337095569, 1.4278029357356605, 2.7927482778639963, 1.4253812933629408, 0.26321312624673326, 0.4955742943419901, 0.3039825611549607, 0.0, 1.1323531399066713, 0.15692990076182387, 0.07297864542578526, 0.04160808095730002, 0.0, 0.03738920373933642, 0.0, 0.014977069424137929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065576808588343, 0.0, 0.005597961463592589, 0.0, 0.004715380590217308, 0.0, 0.2645571001306608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019395540998817004, 0.6747825897673932, 0.0, 0.017940064293076062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008904031237728248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007576017002229459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003228095225742652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.466721456611416, "coverage": 0.9945638005624264, "baseline_score": 71.93170230706004, "spot_peer_score": 10.304136436280787, "peer_archived_score": 5.466721456611416, "baseline_archived_score": 71.93170230706004, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.304136436280787 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636521560.2508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636521560.2508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9839990132336477, 0.016000986766352285 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 185, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "# Background\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\n\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\n\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\n\nSources for live-updates:\n\n* [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com)\n* [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com)\n\n# Question\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\n\n**Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?**\n\n- Implications: (A) Unless dramatic increase in fire rate, greatly extended fighting, (B) More foreign funding of Hamas than likely expected\n\nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\n## Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n* [Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/)\n* [Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/)\n* [Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/)\n* [Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/)\n\n\nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\n# Base-Rate Data\n\nUN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties\n\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\n# Question with Resolution Criteria" }, { "id": 7224, "title": "Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "short_title": "Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q5", "url_title": "Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q5", "slug": "israel-palestine-crisis-2021-q5", "author_id": 116036, "author_username": "GlobalGuessing", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-18T15:26:15.584481Z", "published_at": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.442521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T21:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T21:12:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7224, "title": "Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-05-18T15:26:15.584481Z", "open_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-20T04:40:11.085211Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-20T04:40:11.085211Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T21:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T21:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-31T21:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "# Background\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\n\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\n\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\n\nSources for live-updates:\n\n* [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com)\n* [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com)\n\n# Question\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\n\n**Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?**\n\n- Implication: Most rockets fired at Israel in any given year or conflict since at least 2008\n\nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\n## Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n* [Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/)\n* [Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/)\n* [Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/)\n* [Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/)\n\n\n\nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\n# Base-Rate Data\n\nUN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties\n\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\n# Question with Resolution Criteria", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if both the [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Palestinian_rocket_attacks_on_Israel_in_2021) and [Jewish Virtual Library](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/palestinian-rocket-and-mortar-attacks-against-israel) pages report over 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel from Palestine in 2021.", "fine_print": "If only one of the sources reports over 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel, and the difference between the sources is more than 500 instances, then the question will resolve ambiguously. Otherwise it resolves positively.", "post_id": 7224, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636521384.048598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636521384.048598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.19027620496370856 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4030229227299916, 0.0, 0.9485205268609804, 0.0, 0.36730907972780197, 1.0719935764366229, 0.3895242192723624, 0.5455428972231355, 0.0, 0.9921117115943183, 0.8526092484024689, 0.016545052352399333, 0.0, 0.6145696694889957, 2.140775939683339, 0.08929898399145973, 2.5353311178259523, 0.0, 0.8035283381704728, 0.2684156052812887, 0.20120713654934752, 0.5200876033835001, 0.0, 0.01814051570651832, 0.8793322945935216, 0.04578912126357006, 0.0831729602889247, 0.11256695352303961, 0.0, 0.15238993679035862, 0.0, 0.0036470026727336412, 0.019534332601743164, 0.0, 0.5812577025287669, 0.0, 0.18701184823326883, 0.724928977791107, 0.0, 0.591024586057399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11784751309006193, 0.3262038732013748, 0.7695931267379322, 0.0, 0.005278083116039403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011256236138329163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0059287965041591745, 0.062123617520396156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001791762833909524, 0.002791205479272105, 0.009177490688521169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015233659059589726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008784573170193555, 0.0010689465272835212, 0.0007096313110553183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020616515635595665, 0.0, 0.0012831903312438614, 0.00042868757277762825, 0.00031196504298956556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005604149981838148 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 45.75245213930659, "coverage": 0.9945643693882266, "baseline_score": -12.685559971272703, "spot_peer_score": -12.58121249700383, "peer_archived_score": 45.75245213930659, "baseline_archived_score": -12.685559971272703, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.58121249700383 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636521384.070902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636521384.070902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.882266148019241, 0.11773385198075907 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 454, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "# Background\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\n\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\n\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\n\nSources for live-updates:\n\n* [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com)\n* [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com)\n\n# Question\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\n\n**Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?**\n\n- Implication: Most rockets fired at Israel in any given year or conflict since at least 2008\n\nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\n## Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n* [Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/)\n* [Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/)\n* [Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/)\n* [Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/)\n\n\n\nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\n# Base-Rate Data\n\nUN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties\n\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\n# Question with Resolution Criteria" }, { "id": 7223, "title": "Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "short_title": "Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q1", "url_title": "Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q1", "slug": "israel-palestine-crisis-2021-q1", "author_id": 116036, "author_username": "GlobalGuessing", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-18T15:26:13.122102Z", "published_at": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.423718Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T16:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T16:58:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7223, "title": "Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "created_at": "2021-05-18T15:26:13.122102Z", "open_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-20T02:07:02.367239Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-20T02:07:02.367239Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T16:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T16:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-31T16:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "# Background\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\n\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\n\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\n\nSources for live-updates:\n\n* [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com)\n* [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com)\n\n# Question\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\n\n**Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?**\n\n- Implications: (A) Another week of intense fighting, (B) Sharp escalation of fighting, (C) Ceasefire before renewed fighting by end of year, (D) Low-intensity, continue fighting throughout rest of year.\n\nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\n# Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n* [Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/)\n* [Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/)\n* [Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/)\n* [Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/)\n\nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\n# Base-Rate Data\n\nUN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties\n\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\n# Question with Resolution Criteria", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the [United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties) reports over 400 Palestinian deaths in 2021", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7223, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636521487.801641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636521487.801641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.14812492853799777 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.18995475416373825, 1.5581066959127554, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6721285523370888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18214514839267099, 0.13472216263136438, 2.585629684857877, 0.2996406112495645, 0.7584669862092996, 0.6021020135218824, 0.43718957413281295, 1.6580699738895448, 0.0, 0.32084018499459366, 0.0, 0.0, 1.634547559103981, 0.06452395506976416, 0.8325120973717922, 0.0, 0.07655369782337157, 0.6602324965685292, 0.19600271381795006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421447, 0.0, 0.03532476499990505, 0.3990071823677515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7873596684122405, 0.03383492044223947, 0.012750615313996135, 0.0, 0.03978939647122177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007640857229237732, 0.007599064747706633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004878079341891922, 0.0, 0.021202689949203813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029102099193291783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011671031195180676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005612852165504251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.751734881737118, "coverage": 0.9946747507089941, "baseline_score": 38.93331436448693, "spot_peer_score": 10.9583658328318, "peer_archived_score": 14.751734881737118, "baseline_archived_score": 38.93331436448693, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.9583658328318 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636521487.832194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636521487.832194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9259034477795268, 0.07409655222047322 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 244, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "# Background\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\n\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\n\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\n\nSources for live-updates:\n\n* [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com)\n* [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com)\n\n# Question\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\n\n**Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?**\n\n- Implications: (A) Another week of intense fighting, (B) Sharp escalation of fighting, (C) Ceasefire before renewed fighting by end of year, (D) Low-intensity, continue fighting throughout rest of year.\n\nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\n# Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n* [Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/)\n* [Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/)\n* [Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/)\n* [Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/)\n\nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\n# Base-Rate Data\n\nUN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties\n\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\n# Question with Resolution Criteria" } ] }