Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4860
{ "count": 6394, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4880", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4840", "results": [ { "id": 7222, "title": "Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "short_title": "Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q2", "url_title": "Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q2", "slug": "israel-palestine-crisis-2021-q2", "author_id": 116036, "author_username": "GlobalGuessing", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-18T15:26:10.350895Z", "published_at": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.424270Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:17:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7222, "title": "Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "created_at": "2021-05-18T15:26:10.350895Z", "open_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-20T14:47:04.983906Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-20T14:47:04.983906Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-31T00:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "# Background\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\n\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\n\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\n\nSources for live-updates:\n\n* [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com)\n* [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com)\n\n# Question\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\n\n**Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?**\n\n- Implications: (A) Would pass the common threshold for war in terms of deaths per year, (B) Would become the third deadliest year / conflict between Israel-Palestine since at least 2008.\n\nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\n# Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n* [Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/)\n* [Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/)\n* [Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/)\n* [Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/)\n\nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\n# Base-Rate Data\n\nUN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties\n\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\n# Question with Resolution Criteria", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the [United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties) reports over 1,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7222, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636521608.184587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636521608.184587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.048945881095292576 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.2655263864153854, 3.7102706367136022, 0.7688178989619361, 3.9153659094473166, 0.5851947334571241, 0.4355786834080174, 0.6275971475575431, 0.34458096623645396, 0.0, 0.12650392524394982, 0.0, 0.007317111975919482, 0.12379696394240604, 0.0, 0.20861005504632685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011922333154512703, 0.005009210557615142, 0.08454782710131488, 0.06795822654735252, 0.004046517214306785, 0.0, 0.4105276103686419, 0.0, 0.008686660616741733, 0.0, 0.22291411995272392, 0.0, 0.020796234419099814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042282119148738334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.42058386224182637, "coverage": 0.9944028876029031, "baseline_score": 75.11822282548911, "spot_peer_score": 11.867579776098077, "peer_archived_score": -0.42058386224182637, "baseline_archived_score": 75.11822282548911, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.867579776098077 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636521608.206851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636521608.206851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9829078641594122, 0.017092135840587743 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 157, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "# Background\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\n\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\n\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\n\nSources for live-updates:\n\n* [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com)\n* [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com)\n\n# Question\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\n\n**Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?**\n\n- Implications: (A) Would pass the common threshold for war in terms of deaths per year, (B) Would become the third deadliest year / conflict between Israel-Palestine since at least 2008.\n\nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\n# Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n* [Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/)\n* [Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/)\n* [Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/)\n* [Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/)\n\nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\n# Base-Rate Data\n\nUN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties\n\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\n# Question with Resolution Criteria" }, { "id": 7221, "title": "Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "short_title": "Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q4", "url_title": "Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q4", "slug": "israel-palestine-crisis-2021-q4", "author_id": 116036, "author_username": "GlobalGuessing", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-18T15:26:07.874106Z", "published_at": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.707365Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T23:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T23:03:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7221, "title": "Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "created_at": "2021-05-18T15:26:07.874106Z", "open_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-20T12:37:13.085701Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-20T12:37:13.085701Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T23:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T23:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-29T23:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "# Background\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\n\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\n\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\n\nSources for live-updates:\n\n* [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com)\n* [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com)\n\n# Question\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\n\n**Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?**\n\n- Implication: 10x the war threshold\n\nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\n# Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n* [Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/)\n* [Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/)\n* [Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/)\n* [Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/)\n\nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\n# Base-Rate Data\n\nUN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties\n\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\n# Question with Resolution Criteria", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the [United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties) reports over 10,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7221, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636504258.192924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636504258.192924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.022304165760434567 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.65109797395885, 1.5675822449000347, 0.43599970474196875, 0.02817816109535146, 0.07832104900321624, 0.09802660381756702, 0.028558647718838943, 0.0, 0.4983877871289258, 0.0, 0.005267437638703229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6063823454264274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.2738430278671269, "coverage": 0.9945649462420312, "baseline_score": 95.90694077696469, "spot_peer_score": 2.707442942813221, "peer_archived_score": 1.2738430278671269, "baseline_archived_score": 95.90694077696469, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.707442942813221 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636504258.226759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636504258.226759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9942746519827366, 0.00572534801726344 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 117, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "# Background\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\n\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\n\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\n\nSources for live-updates:\n\n* [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com)\n* [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com)\n\n# Question\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\n\n**Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?**\n\n- Implication: 10x the war threshold\n\nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\n# Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n* [Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/)\n* [Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/)\n* [Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/)\n* [Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/)\n\nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\n# Base-Rate Data\n\nUN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties\n\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\n# Question with Resolution Criteria" }, { "id": 7220, "title": "Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "short_title": "Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q3", "url_title": "Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 | Q3", "slug": "israel-palestine-crisis-2021-q3", "author_id": 116036, "author_username": "GlobalGuessing", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-18T15:25:59.656043Z", "published_at": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.144547Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T19:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T19:07:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7220, "title": "Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "created_at": "2021-05-18T15:25:59.656043Z", "open_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-20T12:48:16.378459Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-20T12:48:16.378459Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T19:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T19:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-30T19:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "# Background\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\n\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\n\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\n\nSources for live-updates:\n\n* [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com)\n* [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com)\n\n# Question\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\n\n**Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?**\n\n- Implication: The deadliest war between Israel and Palestine since at least 2008\n\nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\n# Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n* [Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/)\n* [Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/)\n* [Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/)\n* [Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/)\n\nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\n# Base-Rate Data\n\nUN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties\n\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\n# Question with Resolution Criteria", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the [United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties) reports over 2,500 Palestinian deaths in 2021", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7220, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636517647.102713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636517647.102713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04156154614044097 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.21940327443571, 5.0362563378066625, 1.166559015462216, 0.6567037300381227, 1.1109028020275633, 0.038142496490550196, 0.0012965554486791008, 0.05286943985939485, 0.0, 0.013777980345358598, 0.003650949509915334, 0.0, 0.03081720770343554, 0.022793040884779476, 0.0053330571903923785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002949293081317581, 0.4269214684219575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8284076835897499, 0.013291901200468375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.296054802052735, "coverage": 0.9945657597897115, "baseline_score": 89.59406544832062, "spot_peer_score": 13.090459120674012, "peer_archived_score": 4.296054802052735, "baseline_archived_score": 89.59406544832062, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.090459120674012 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636517647.128279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636517647.128279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9926974811755134, 0.007302518824486648 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 149, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "# Background\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\n\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\n\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\n\nSources for live-updates:\n\n* [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com)\n* [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com)\n\n# Question\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\n\n**Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?**\n\n- Implication: The deadliest war between Israel and Palestine since at least 2008\n\nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\n# Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n* [Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/)\n* [Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/)\n* [Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/)\n* [Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/)\n* [Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/)\n\nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\n# Base-Rate Data\n\nUN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties\n\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\n\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\n# Question with Resolution Criteria" }, { "id": 7217, "title": "Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029?", "short_title": "CANZUK Free Movement Zone by 2029", "url_title": "CANZUK Free Movement Zone by 2029", "slug": "canzuk-free-movement-zone-by-2029", "author_id": 103116, "author_username": "Uncle Jeff", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-17T20:39:46.493193Z", "published_at": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-09T21:09:02.380802Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-07-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-07T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7217, "title": "Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029?", "created_at": "2021-05-17T20:39:46.493193Z", "open_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-24T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-24T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-07T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-07-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK\n\nCANZUK is an acronym for Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. \n\nIt's used for a proposed free movement alliance amongst those countries modeled upon what already exists between Australia and New Zealand. Citizens, especially labor, could then move nearly as freely among them as among the states in the US.\n\nThough the idea has been around for decades, Brexit has heightened UK interest in the concept as a replacement for the EU.\n\n***Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Agreed Before 2029?***\n\nThe question resolves positively if a free movement treaty (or treaties) including but not limited to Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom is adopted.\n\nFree Movement means that a citizen using only a passport from one participating country may (with few restrictions) move among, reside in and work in any of them.\n\n[fine-print]\nResolution needs only that the treaty be adopted by the deadline; it need not have taken effect.\n\nMovement restrictions regarding criminals and disease transmission don't matter as long as a passport from one country generally makes one eligible to work in any. See the Trans-Tasman Travel Agreement (TTTA) as a model. Indeed, an expansion of the TTTA itself to include Canada and the UK would be a canonical positive resolution.\n\nIt doesn't matter if Scotland secedes from the UK.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7217, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762482235.837201, "end_time": 1764729491.318131, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762482235.837201, "end_time": 1764729491.318131, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.12160854261576157 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6640427727672698, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 1.7337519574005285, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.5469448541590932, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4698705259305286, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 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"nr_forecasters": 156, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7216, "title": "Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?", "created_at": "2021-05-17T18:40:26.008567Z", "open_time": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1),\n\n> Sputnik 1 was the first artificial Earth satellite. It was launched into an elliptical low Earth orbit by the USSR on 4 October 1957 as part of the Soviet space program. It orbited for three weeks before its batteries died and then orbited silently for two months before it fell back into the atmosphere on the 4th January 1958.\n\n> [...]\n\n> The satellite's unanticipated success precipitated the American Sputnik crisis and triggered the Space Race, part of the Cold War. The launch was the beginning of a new era of political, military, technological and scientific developments.\n\nAn \"AI Sputnik moment\" would, by contrast, be a sudden understanding by the general public that artificial intelligence is worth taking extremely seriously, perhaps triggering a [similar AI arms race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence_arms_race).", "resolution_criteria": "There is said to be an \"AI Sputnik moment\" if ANY of the following come true before 2050,\n\n* A major technology company (>50 billion dollar market cap, in 2021 US dollars, right before the announcement) announces the creation of an AI system. Upon the announcement, their stock price skyrockets by over 100% compared to its previous value within 7 days, and numerous highly credible media reports claim that this rise in stock price is likely a result of the AI development.\n\n* News of an AI development triggers the head of government of the top 2 nations by GDP nominal to give a public speech regarding the ramifications of this particular AI development, within two weeks of the initial news reports.\n\n* The Nasdaq Composite (which is currently heavily weighted towards companies in the information technology sector) rises over 30% in the course of a single week, and numerous highly credible media reports claim that this rise in stock prices is likely a result of the AI development.\n\n* The [Google Trends monitor for artificial intelligence](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0mkz) shows that interest in artificial intelligence rises by over 100% relative to of its previous value, compared to the week prior (using the resolution at 12 months, as currently displayed by the Google Trends widget). If Google Trends changes their functionality or methodology dramatically (as determined by Metaculus admins), then this condition can no longer trigger a positive resolution.\n\n* Practically all reliable media outlets are referring to an AI development as an AI Sputnik moment, as referring to the historical Sputnik 1 satellite", "fine_print": "Google Trends index scores vary depending on the date and location from which a user checks the site. To reduce ambiguity, to trigger the Google Trends section of the resolution criteria:\n\n- At least two Metaculus administrators need to be able to see the >100% Google Trends increase, when checking from different locations.\n- The increase must remain >100% for at least four days to trigger a **Yes** resolution. For instance, if we first notice an increase of >100% on a Monday, we will check again on Friday. We will only resolve \"Yes\" if the reported increase for the weeks in question is >100% on both days we check, for both admins, and we have no evidence that it dropped below 100% at any point during those four days.", "post_id": 7216, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762198421.872293, "end_time": 1767205331.105753, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762198421.872293, "end_time": 1767205331.105753, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8637070682074839 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0022817552237582354, 5.985619839723628e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34798065916360005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8853821824576517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.138071967109741e-05, 0.2911874237706702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5864622915795621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13848240080349103, 0.00020421574883557885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5370875895901847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013668427156647601, 0.0004624828341603532, 0.08697016744342555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014108001133420584, 0.0, 0.00042674807679139883, 0.0010157873003403706, 0.00010033066101054557, 0.4351897103690931, 0.0025639848737358008, 0.05901728790349625, 0.47219330240991614, 0.007061354504219205, 0.0406306500488371, 0.020781467670726545, 0.673496121236949, 0.23209586946550215, 0.0, 2.8408578961327957, 0.16809101538668195, 0.056940540222996744, 0.0, 0.0061629052102733905, 1.9986840698858657, 0.0034786432066948375, 1.029435733857298, 0.000843615062305273, 0.06002628739899655, 3.264125680219723, 0.35014003730932364, 2.118954170874458, 0.6981316090662886, 5.823462379017352 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287747.773139, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287747.773139, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.11952758474704395, 0.880472415252956 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 358, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1),\n\n> Sputnik 1 was the first artificial Earth satellite. It was launched into an elliptical low Earth orbit by the USSR on 4 October 1957 as part of the Soviet space program. It orbited for three weeks before its batteries died and then orbited silently for two months before it fell back into the atmosphere on the 4th January 1958.\n\n> [...]\n\n> The satellite's unanticipated success precipitated the American Sputnik crisis and triggered the Space Race, part of the Cold War. The launch was the beginning of a new era of political, military, technological and scientific developments.\n\nAn \"AI Sputnik moment\" would, by contrast, be a sudden understanding by the general public that artificial intelligence is worth taking extremely seriously, perhaps triggering a [similar AI arms race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence_arms_race)." }, { "id": 7215, "title": "Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Will SEC approve bitcoin ETF by 2025?", "url_title": "Will SEC approve bitcoin ETF by 2025?", "slug": "will-sec-approve-bitcoin-etf-by-2025", "author_id": 112329, "author_username": "JonathanRay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-17T14:55:46.299262Z", "published_at": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.624657Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-10T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T08:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-10T21:59:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 148, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7215, "title": "Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2021-05-17T14:55:46.299262Z", "open_time": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-27T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-10T21:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-10T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T08:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-10T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Several proposals for bitcoin ETFs have been submitted to the SEC over the last 5 years, but the SEC has not approved any of them yet.\n\nClosed-end funds like GBTC already exist, their price does not accurately track bitcoin due to the lack of any share creation/redemption mechanism for market makers to arbitrage the difference in price between the fund and the underlying commodity.\n\nSince retail investors can already buy GBTC, which approximately tracks bitcoin but with additional random fluctuations superimposed, I can't think of any plausible consumer-protection argument for the SEC to deny the right to convert it to an ETF, which wouldn't also be a fully generic argument against all ETFs (e.g., assuming that the market makers' profits come at the expense of the users)", "resolution_criteria": "An ETF of equities of companies that own bitcoin, like Microstrategy, Square, and Coinbase, would not be sufficient for a yes resolution. Only an ETF that puts >95% of its NAV into bitcoin would count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7215, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1705005072.550765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1705005072.550765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9166604237792668 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.031817870758219145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05328751736160051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005314470848292115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03772883422609711, 0.01985471419008273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10372313180286717, 0.03690402491985851, 0.03368978264492797, 0.014577571538750897, 0.0001435395041736931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06865288793810875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684148133962752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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false, "description": "Several proposals for bitcoin ETFs have been submitted to the SEC over the last 5 years, but the SEC has not approved any of them yet.\n\nClosed-end funds like GBTC already exist, their price does not accurately track bitcoin due to the lack of any share creation/redemption mechanism for market makers to arbitrage the difference in price between the fund and the underlying commodity.\n\nSince retail investors can already buy GBTC, which approximately tracks bitcoin but with additional random fluctuations superimposed, I can't think of any plausible consumer-protection argument for the SEC to deny the right to convert it to an ETF, which wouldn't also be a fully generic argument against all ETFs (e.g., assuming that the market makers' profits come at the expense of the users)" }, { "id": 7214, "title": "Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?", "short_title": "Taiwan COVID spike April/May 2021", "url_title": "Taiwan COVID spike April/May 2021", "slug": "taiwan-covid-spike-aprilmay-2021", "author_id": 118432, "author_username": "huey", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-17T12:18:46.107085Z", "published_at": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.616495Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-25T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-25T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T21:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T21:58:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, 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"category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7214, "title": "Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?", "created_at": "2021-05-17T12:18:46.107085Z", "open_time": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-21T09:23:41.774058Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-21T09:23:41.774058Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T21:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T21:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-06-01T21:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-25T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-25T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 15 2021, Taiwan responded to an increase in COVID cases by [raising the epidemic warning level to Level 3](https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/R1K7gSjoYa7Wojk54nW7fg?typeid=158) in Taipei and New Taipei City.\n\nThese restrictions include restricting all indoor gatherings involving over 5 people indoors or 10 people outdoors. \n\n[Under Level 4 restrictions, members of the public are only allowed to leave home to buy food, seek medical care and for work needs](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4203920).", "resolution_criteria": "This can be resolved by checking the English press release on the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control website on June 1st. If an announcement stating that Taipei has entered Level 4 restrictions was made by May 31st, then the question is resolved positively. If there is no such announcement then the question is resolved negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7214, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1621932741.05952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1621932741.05952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.38489684464303514 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.9172371287241656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5294100393485647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.8576682899521639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 1.5209615078335204, 0.0, 2.0537341061663157, 0.0, 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"interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6002791678328523, 0.39972083216714765 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 15 2021, Taiwan responded to an increase in COVID cases by [raising the epidemic warning level to Level 3](https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/R1K7gSjoYa7Wojk54nW7fg?typeid=158) in Taipei and New Taipei City.\n\nThese restrictions include restricting all indoor gatherings involving over 5 people indoors or 10 people outdoors. \n\n[Under Level 4 restrictions, members of the public are only allowed to leave home to buy food, seek medical care and for work needs](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4203920)." }, { "id": 7211, "title": "Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?", "short_title": "Any USG body concludes lab leak by June 2022", "url_title": "Any USG body concludes lab leak by June 2022", "slug": "any-usg-body-concludes-lab-leak-by-june-2022", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-16T02:35:16.607860Z", "published_at": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.193096Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 143, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-08T20:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T20:58:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 205, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7211, "title": "Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?", "created_at": "2021-05-16T02:35:16.607860Z", "open_time": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-20T18:05:50.042353Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-20T18:05:50.042353Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T20:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-08T20:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-08T20:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Previously, we had [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/) about the COVID-19 lab leak theory, which many considered to have improper resolution criteria. This question is a less ambiguous version, slated to resolve on June 1st, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively in the event that any official body of the US federal government concludes, via an official report published or leaked to the public, that the origin of the COVID-19 coronavirus involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province, before June 1st 2022. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In case at least two moderators declare that there exists considerable ambiguity about whether the US government indeed concluded that COVID-19 originated in a lab, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the federal government is said to conclude a fact if they (1) take it as a given in one of their official reports (2) state that it is \"likely\", \"probable\", \"almost certain\", or some other close synonym of those terms (3) make some other determination as to the likelihood of the the fact, indicating that they believe there is a greater than 50% chance that the fact is true. \n\nIn case there is a dispute over whether a word used by the government counts as a close synonym of \"probable\", a vote will be taken in the comment section below on the question (and which must be clarified, is to be determined purely on the basis of whether the word counts as a close synonym, NOT whether the question should resolve positively or negatively)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7211, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638740650.036864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 205, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638740650.036864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 205, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.359473708280086 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7593925030467996, 0.17812702020959276, 0.7195504340080074, 0.0, 0.9302515791093973, 0.0, 0.013339132848194348, 0.437322880361488, 0.04149043593859358, 0.027786775793593437, 0.0, 0.00047416362806164256, 0.01706253256756955, 0.0006636065938089737, 0.6113794718722246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25760196247931577, 0.18848998139534737, 0.5126837790241714, 0.07649874536010629, 0.2293310962218138, 0.0, 0.9780175731431793, 1.183783107717747, 1.708037336627605, 0.008409199035182318, 0.0012283936270591044, 0.0, 2.521778982830942, 0.0641642879643263, 0.0, 0.010611220479852024, 0.24250274856935405, 0.4583814421096363, 0.0005744103837265382, 1.4685334932918925, 0.3266851877275994, 0.7849214772423738, 1.5375364244198941, 0.7388348564876274, 0.9236787876438887, 1.1662686464729892, 0.640219835992675, 1.6032785074235942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040456231353313575, 7.322383758335559e-05, 1.3128910461304284, 0.3913122079190315, 0.565472294015919, 0.036231692371766155, 0.0511328507066776, 0.3550467047757242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8530194641974758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16082873411410661, 0.0010061515463241526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03464865437944776, 0.0, 0.7541588810054382, 0.9066354891996836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.2975283180374834e-05, 0.13683313922435378, 0.0, 0.0005247596945864442, 0.0, 0.1553224805178969, 0.0, 0.014010539065824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4203411660589862e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638951014.505661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 205, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638951014.505661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 205, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6222910529074666, 0.3777089470925335 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 30, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 675, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Previously, we had [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/) about the COVID-19 lab leak theory, which many considered to have improper resolution criteria. This question is a less ambiguous version, slated to resolve on June 1st, 2022." }, { "id": 7209, "title": "Will anyone be convicted in the US for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060?", "short_title": "Conviction in US for Bitcoin Ownership 2060", "url_title": "Conviction in US for Bitcoin Ownership 2060", "slug": "conviction-in-us-for-bitcoin-ownership-2060", "author_id": 105656, "author_username": "Jotto", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-15T02:37:47.457009Z", "published_at": "2021-05-17T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T17:01:02.947882Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-17T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-05-17T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7209, "title": "Will anyone be convicted in the US for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060?", "created_at": "2021-05-15T02:37:47.457009Z", "open_time": "2021-05-17T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-19T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will it be legal to pay taxes in the US using bitcoin before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7509/us-taxes-payable-in-bitcoin-by-2030/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if anyone in the United States is convicted, in any US court, for the possession of Bitcoin, before January 1, 2060.\n\nThe charge must explicitly be for the possession of Bitcoin, not, for instance, performing an illegal action where the use of bitcoin is involved (such as buying or selling illegal drugs). Similarly, tax avoidance due to recieving payments in bitcoin or earning capital gains is not included in the resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7209, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762970502.385372, "end_time": 1767127348.312069, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762970502.385372, "end_time": 1767127348.312069, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.08966155488968311 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.978690401932501, 2.48620038467067, 2.1252768371305084, 1.0310807265247846, 1.345787992091593, 2.5080281498792614, 0.38655557814286323, 0.0011476318570691885, 0.0, 0.4013503291190707, 1.760628020297111, 0.0, 0.0880266950214237, 0.03375615315938142, 0.1883016610575313, 0.9275933922024269, 0.04459841040712599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"forecast_values": [ 0.9831894384705777, 0.016810561529422233 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will it be legal to pay taxes in the US using bitcoin before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7509/us-taxes-payable-in-bitcoin-by-2030/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 7208, "title": "Will Jeff Bezos undertake a \"seismic\" development in longevity before September 1st 2021?", "short_title": "Jeff Bezos to shake up longevity by September", "url_title": "Jeff Bezos to shake up longevity by September", "slug": "jeff-bezos-to-shake-up-longevity-by-september", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-14T22:05:09.896851Z", "published_at": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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"forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": 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"question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During a recent video AMA called [Longevity Meets Blockchain - AMA with Aubrey de Grey and Vitalik Buterin](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9TSJK1widA&t=2006s), Aubrey de Grey had stated,\n\n> A month or so from now, there's stuff I can't talk about, that is happening that will be really seismic in this field. Somebody whose name we all know, and whose name I cannot mention, but who has been talking to me and has been interested in this for more than 15 years is finally going to be doing something.\n\nSome people on Reddit [speculated](https://www.reddit.com/r/longevity/comments/nbmkf0/aubrey_just_said_something_that_got_me/) that Aubrey de Grey was referring to Jeff Bezos. One commenter [stated](https://www.reddit.com/r/longevity/comments/nbmkf0/aubrey_just_said_something_that_got_me/gy09u6d/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3),\n\n> Aubrey met Bezos at Ted back in 2006 (15 years ago), and Aubrey did mention that this person has known about Aubrey for 15 years. Bezos just \"retired\" recently as well.\n\nJeff Bezos has been interested in longevity before. In 2018, CNBC [reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/29/jeff-bezos-backs-silicon-valley-scientist-working-on-a-cure-for-aging.html) that Jeff Bezos was among the investors who backed Unity Biotechnologies. It's also true that Jeff Bezos [announced his retirement](https://www.zmescience.com/other/pieces/why-jeff-bezos-retirement-from-amazon-means-big-things-for-space/) from Amazon on February 2nd of this year.", "resolution_criteria": "Jeff Bezos is said to have undertaken a \"seismic\" development in longevity if ANY of the following occur before September 1st 2021, as determined by reliable media,\n\n* Jeff Bezos donates at least $50 million to the SENS Research Foundation or the Methuselah Foundation.\n\n* Jeff Bezos donates at least $50 million to another organization considered to be close ally of The SENS Research Foundation, in the sense that the organization's website indicates a mission to either (1) find a way to halt, delay, reverse or cure aging, (2) determine the causes of aging. If at least 2 moderators agree that the organization is not a close ally of the The SENS Research Foundation, then it isn't, for the purpose of this question.\n\n* Jeff Bezos announces that he is starting a biotechnology company focused on aging, and in particular, a biotechnology company that meets the conditions above for a \"close ally of The SENS Research Foundation\", and pledges at least $50 million to the company.\n\n* Jeff Bezos invests at least $50 million into a biotechnology company that meets the conditions above for a \"close ally of The SENS Research Foundation.\"\n\nIf the amount donated, pledged, or invested is unknown at the time of announcement, Metaculus will wait until the question can resolve. If Bezos donates, pledges or invests in multiple organizations, the sum is combined for qualifying organizations, and organizations given money after May 15th 2021.", "fine_print": "While amounts less than $50 million are plausible, the author of this question does not consider them to be \"seismic.\"", "post_id": 7208, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1623725051.684096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1623725051.684096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3284471930670137 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37113480134217347, 0.0, 0.02464062427608051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023362288289553078, 0.0, 0.02759496933622408, 0.0, 0.27805738515481254, 0.7337536174573437, 0.8284076835897499, 0.04678195401930797, 0.0, 0.021936199508452464, 1.7802198031927308, 0.0, 0.457422476445143, 0.04228688608058346, 0.0, 4.472976823873707, 0.12716653551049145, 0.17592413500841017, 0.28703811529955536, 0.0, 0.981922587258387, 1.2186324014182601, 0.4807269342591165, 0.6947018847115899, 0.0, 0.21377577463401182, 0.0, 0.1073881054056872, 0.0053330571903923785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06261470488347545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002949293081317581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16247035089338988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1623725051.714204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1623725051.714204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7491083404924777, 0.2508916595075224 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During a recent video AMA called [Longevity Meets Blockchain - AMA with Aubrey de Grey and Vitalik Buterin](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9TSJK1widA&t=2006s), Aubrey de Grey had stated,\n\n> A month or so from now, there's stuff I can't talk about, that is happening that will be really seismic in this field. Somebody whose name we all know, and whose name I cannot mention, but who has been talking to me and has been interested in this for more than 15 years is finally going to be doing something.\n\nSome people on Reddit [speculated](https://www.reddit.com/r/longevity/comments/nbmkf0/aubrey_just_said_something_that_got_me/) that Aubrey de Grey was referring to Jeff Bezos. One commenter [stated](https://www.reddit.com/r/longevity/comments/nbmkf0/aubrey_just_said_something_that_got_me/gy09u6d/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3),\n\n> Aubrey met Bezos at Ted back in 2006 (15 years ago), and Aubrey did mention that this person has known about Aubrey for 15 years. Bezos just \"retired\" recently as well.\n\nJeff Bezos has been interested in longevity before. In 2018, CNBC [reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/29/jeff-bezos-backs-silicon-valley-scientist-working-on-a-cure-for-aging.html) that Jeff Bezos was among the investors who backed Unity Biotechnologies. It's also true that Jeff Bezos [announced his retirement](https://www.zmescience.com/other/pieces/why-jeff-bezos-retirement-from-amazon-means-big-things-for-space/) from Amazon on February 2nd of this year." }, { "id": 7207, "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?", "short_title": "Bitcoin Falls Below $10 Before 2121", "url_title": "Bitcoin Falls Below $10 Before 2121", "slug": "bitcoin-falls-below-10-before-2121", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-14T16:51:47.203198Z", "published_at": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T18:38:34.945710Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2121-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 142, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7207, "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?", "created_at": "2021-05-14T16:51:47.203198Z", "open_time": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-17T19:43:53.864978Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-17T19:43:53.864978Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2121-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-15T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In a column for the New York times in 2018, Paul Krugman [wrote](https://archive.is/sU6eS#selection-443.0-458.0),\n\n> To some extent gold is in a similar situation. Most gold just sits there, possessing value because people believe it possesses value. But gold does have real-world uses, both for jewelry and for things like filling teeth, that provide a weak but real tether to the real economy.\n\n> Cryptocurrencies, by contrast, have no backstop, no tether to reality. Their value depends entirely on self-fulfilling expectations – which means that total collapse is a real possibility. If speculators were to have a collective moment of doubt, suddenly fearing that Bitcoins were worthless, well, Bitcoins would become worthless.\n\n> I think it’s more likely than not, partly because of the gap between the messianic rhetoric of crypto and the much more mundane real possibilities. That is, there might be a potential equilibrium in which Bitcoin (although probably not other cryptocurrencies) remain in use mainly for black market transactions and tax evasion, but that equilibrium, if it exists, would be hard to get to from here: once the dream of a blockchained future dies, the disappointment will probably collapse the whole thing.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before 2121 and after 2020, the price of bitcoin at one point fell below $10 per bitcoin (in 2021 dollars). If dollars cease to exist, $10 in 2021 dollars is taken to be an amount of currency with the same purchasing power as $10 of 2021 dollars. Otherwise, it resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7207, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762108704.34569, "end_time": 1770642350.291079, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762108704.34569, "end_time": 1770642350.291079, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.3083619277303684 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.6454941219216552, 2.0595562263364555, 0.05731770546138464, 0.0662731364251865, 0.017231694548514285, 1.8744133039699387, 0.06774836269801521, 0.9225456332647655, 0.0, 0.014065569448769515, 0.5696679248765565, 0.018290500869792215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7634520819482243, 0.013152523503331279, 0.0, 1.0209004683233773, 0.07560833620913443, 1.231315709261029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008614234482275015, 0.13267994031843944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7724292722230318, 0.0, 1.741668509377381, 0.20220999155894348, 0.14979578846581734, 1.0371682210675008, 0.0, 0.6565908573900414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004884690240385973, 1.9431978448656892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018687652294719, 0.0, 0.4962959788066818, 0.0136463077618799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11860071150556037, 0.6543390420381368, 0.0, 0.017142502437725943, 0.0, 0.0006183591125959633, 0.004775694421494681, 0.0003335616881676764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049149743399421, 0.00601144249299992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002323901629148029, 0.00015888337356610445, 0.17423677577556576, 0.010713640101149224, 0.0, 0.002528512789741939, 0.016103451896765507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200547435689325, 0.6194872675570493, 0.009575966637113473, 0.0005504912825987995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12497649874661035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024718770493719843, 0.0, 0.022146270059477058, 0.002694916038571455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029275626395232082, 0.0017256088791892754, 0.03204172684968158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009945954590510944, 0.47362466144001364, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4706603542206178 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286934.555108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286934.555108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6782871850150098, 0.32171281498499016 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 343, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In a column for the New York times in 2018, Paul Krugman [wrote](https://archive.is/sU6eS#selection-443.0-458.0),\n\n> To some extent gold is in a similar situation. Most gold just sits there, possessing value because people believe it possesses value. But gold does have real-world uses, both for jewelry and for things like filling teeth, that provide a weak but real tether to the real economy.\n\n> Cryptocurrencies, by contrast, have no backstop, no tether to reality. Their value depends entirely on self-fulfilling expectations – which means that total collapse is a real possibility. If speculators were to have a collective moment of doubt, suddenly fearing that Bitcoins were worthless, well, Bitcoins would become worthless.\n\n> I think it’s more likely than not, partly because of the gap between the messianic rhetoric of crypto and the much more mundane real possibilities. That is, there might be a potential equilibrium in which Bitcoin (although probably not other cryptocurrencies) remain in use mainly for black market transactions and tax evasion, but that equilibrium, if it exists, would be hard to get to from here: once the dream of a blockchained future dies, the disappointment will probably collapse the whole thing." }, { "id": 7192, "title": "Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?", "short_title": "Peru Presidential Election 2021", "url_title": "Peru Presidential Election 2021", "slug": "peru-presidential-election-2021", "author_id": 118386, "author_username": "maybenotdepends", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-11T02:57:14.330072Z", "published_at": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.570610Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-19T22:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-19T22:50:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7192, "title": "Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?", "created_at": "2021-05-11T02:57:14.330072Z", "open_time": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-22T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-19T22:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-19T22:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-19T22:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-05T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-05T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 6, 2021 Peru will have the second round of its presidential election. Pedro Castillo versus Keiko Fujimori.\n\nPedro Castillo is a teacher and trade unionist from a rural part of Peru. He is a leader of the leftist [Free Peru party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Peru). Several Free Peru party members have had ties to the Shining Path (a once very powerful leftist guerilla movement with a terrible human rights record). In the first round, Castillo was initially polling at only 3% but surprised everyone when his support surged to [win the first round with 19%](https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/EG2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/T).\n\nKeiko Fujimori is the daughter of dictator Alberto Fujimori and former first-lady. She is the leader of the right-wing [Popular Force\nparty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Force) which came in second place with 13% on the first round. If elected, [she might pardon her father who currently is incarcerated in a Peruvian jail](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN29N1HT). Fujimori, and many members of her party, are currently facing corruption charges. \n\nPeru is suffering from the devastating impact of the coronavirus on peoples' health and on the economy. This combined with the high levels of political corruption may have caused people to vote for candidates who are polar opposites on the political spectrum.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution: [Peru ONPE, the official organization that runs Peru's elections](https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).\n\nResolves ambiguously if there is no second round of the election in 2021", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7192, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622860643.45088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622860643.45088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5547507885609686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.5409371149363933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2433005010033794, 0.3243980142276556, 1.9638398215205826, 2.5324296279207177, 0.0, 1.1491683402104726, 0.9693190949644884, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.0, 0.4380783334871533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07636502546192786, 0.0, 0.2219563663711437, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.107279828682039, "coverage": 0.9837069542500635, "baseline_score": 34.272905377509176, "spot_peer_score": 42.05213104346994, "peer_archived_score": 15.107279828682039, "baseline_archived_score": 34.272905377509176, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.05213104346994 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622860643.476313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622860643.476313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.42403468358254626, 0.5759653164174537 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 6, 2021 Peru will have the second round of its presidential election. Pedro Castillo versus Keiko Fujimori.\n\nPedro Castillo is a teacher and trade unionist from a rural part of Peru. He is a leader of the leftist [Free Peru party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Peru). Several Free Peru party members have had ties to the Shining Path (a once very powerful leftist guerilla movement with a terrible human rights record). In the first round, Castillo was initially polling at only 3% but surprised everyone when his support surged to [win the first round with 19%](https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/EG2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/T).\n\nKeiko Fujimori is the daughter of dictator Alberto Fujimori and former first-lady. She is the leader of the right-wing [Popular Force\nparty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Force) which came in second place with 13% on the first round. If elected, [she might pardon her father who currently is incarcerated in a Peruvian jail](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN29N1HT). Fujimori, and many members of her party, are currently facing corruption charges. \n\nPeru is suffering from the devastating impact of the coronavirus on peoples' health and on the economy. This combined with the high levels of political corruption may have caused people to vote for candidates who are polar opposites on the political spectrum." }, { "id": 7190, "title": "Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?", "short_title": "UK Conservatives to win Batley and Spen?", "url_title": "UK Conservatives to win Batley and Spen?", "slug": "uk-conservatives-to-win-batley-and-spen", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-09T20:23:12.288937Z", "published_at": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.126657Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-02T19:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-02T19:42:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7190, "title": "Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?", "created_at": "2021-05-09T20:23:12.288937Z", "open_time": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-21T21:28:22.637297Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-21T21:28:22.637297Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-02T19:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-02T19:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-02T19:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Batley and Spen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batley_and_Spen_(UK_Parliament_constituency)) is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament from 2016 to 2021 by Tracy Brabin, a member of the Labour and Co-operative Party. A by-election will be held after Brabin was elected as the West Yorkshire Metro Mayor, and was required to resign her seat in the House of Commons as a result. \n\nIn the most recent parliamentary election in this constituency, [held in December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batley_and_Spen_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s), the Labour Party won 22,594 votes, or 42.7% of the total number of valid votes. The Conservative Party won 19,069 votes, or 36% of the total. Labour won the seat with a majority of 3,525, or 6.7%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the Conservative and Unionist Party candidate wins the by-election held to fill the vacancy left by Tracy Brabin's resignation.", "fine_print": "In the event that this question is still open on polling day, it should close retroactive to 08:00 BST on the day that polls open.", "post_id": 7190, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1624139470.089325, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1624139470.089325, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6535671906054221 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001154680008281835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6052901939893173, 0.20519356765151792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2705711948194747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02824192915119674, 0.3306350564689133, 0.49988553484328224, 0.0, 0.03231461620016842, 1.0903442291287635, 1.9354982380605303, 0.5708094228369229, 0.9376911341816432, 0.18302849145675473, 0.04521989317465429, 1.9288179512364176, 0.037006568904927, 0.674176708506833, 0.0, 0.6418170686342721, 0.02951742757107075, 0.12595925847878922, 1.6113382265180185, 0.09378499354577581, 1.1675045209812795, 0.3455057246259332, 0.9457962723934501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7128630442957321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4548173179246501 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.5758124920789736, "coverage": 0.9965424600192268, "baseline_score": -46.67619658777141, "spot_peer_score": -9.31747920094335, "peer_archived_score": 2.5758124920789736, "baseline_archived_score": -46.67619658777141, "spot_peer_archived_score": -9.31747920094335 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1624139470.117287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1624139470.117287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30836099544957996, 0.69163900455042 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 328, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Batley and Spen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batley_and_Spen_(UK_Parliament_constituency)) is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament from 2016 to 2021 by Tracy Brabin, a member of the Labour and Co-operative Party. A by-election will be held after Brabin was elected as the West Yorkshire Metro Mayor, and was required to resign her seat in the House of Commons as a result. \n\nIn the most recent parliamentary election in this constituency, [held in December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batley_and_Spen_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s), the Labour Party won 22,594 votes, or 42.7% of the total number of valid votes. The Conservative Party won 19,069 votes, or 36% of the total. Labour won the seat with a majority of 3,525, or 6.7%." }, { "id": 7165, "title": "If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030?", "short_title": "GOP Senate Depending on DC/PR Statehood", "url_title": "GOP Senate Depending on DC/PR Statehood", "slug": "gop-senate-depending-on-dcpr-statehood", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-05T17:59:21.794065Z", "published_at": "2021-05-31T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.262768Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-31T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-03T19:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-03T19:59:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-31T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7165, "title": "If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030?", "created_at": "2021-05-05T17:59:21.794065Z", "open_time": "2021-05-31T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-31T16:15:25.927128Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-31T16:15:25.927128Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-03T19:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-03T19:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-03T19:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Democrats have recently been increasingly interested in the structure of the Senate and the [disadvantages they believe it confers to the electoral prospects of Democrats](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/30/20997046/constitution-electoral-college-senate-popular-vote-trump). On May 5th, 2021, Dylan Matthews, a journalist at Vox, [posted a tweet](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1389975733867581445) that made the following claim (archived version [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20210505170845/https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1389975733867581445)):\n\n>I don’t think Congressional leadership has really internalized that if they don’t admit DC and PR, they’ll lose the Senate until at least 2030\n\n***If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2031?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n* Both Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not officially admitted as new states before December 31, 2029, *and* \n\n* the Republican Party controls the Senate from the beginning of the congressional term in 2023 to the end of the congressional term in 2031 ([the 118th through 121st congresses, inclusive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congresses)).\n\nIf Republicans do not control the Senate at any point during that period, this question will resolve as **No**. If both Washington DC and Puerto Rico are officially admitted to the United States on or before December 31, 2029, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7165, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718253771.567636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718253771.567636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02965828544356094 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.258742721005536, 5.643119759909381, 2.4348143270185147, 0.14236045497222857, 0.20777047166518461, 0.6631670890045156, 0.0, 0.05043066873448547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18366264804266816, 0.034361985631411136, 0.04337286817914048, 0.35593226829890645, 0.0, 0.02097533993706027, 0.0, 0.0019669756877948225, 0.0, 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homicide?", "slug": "derek-chauvin-to-be-tried-again-for-homicide", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-05T00:47:02.711353Z", "published_at": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.590488Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-20T16:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-20T16:33:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7162, "title": "Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?", "created_at": "2021-05-05T00:47:02.711353Z", "open_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-10T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-10T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-20T16:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-20T16:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-20T16:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer who on April 20 2021 was convicted on two counts of murder and one count of manslaughter in connection with the death of [George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd). As of May 2021, he is awaiting sentencing.\n\nOn May 4 2021, Chauvin's attorney Eric Nelson filed a post-verdict motion requesting a court order granting a new trial, pursuant to Minn. R. 26.04, subd. 1, on the following\ngrounds: the interests of justice; abuse of discretion that deprived the Defendant of a fair\ntrial; prosecutorial and jury misconduct; errors of law at trial; and a verdict that is contrary\nto law. \n\nFurther, Chauvin's attorney filed a motion requesting the court to order a hearing to impeach the verdict, pursuant to Minn. R. Crim. P. 26.03, subd.\n20(6) and Schwartz v. Minneapolis Suburban Bus Co., 104 N.W.2d 301 (Minn. 1960), on\nthe grounds that the jury committed misconduct, felt threatened or intimidated, felt race-based pressure during the proceedings, and/or failed to adhere to instructions during\ndeliberations, in violation of Mr. Chauvin’s constitutional rights to due process and a fair\ntrial. \n\n[The motions can be read here.](https://www.mncourts.gov/mncourtsgov/media/High-Profile-Cases/27-CR-20-12646/Notice-of-Motion-and-Motion.pdf) (PDF)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if on or before 20 April 2022, a new trial is ordered for Derek Chauvin on homicide charges connected to the death of George Floyd. The trial need not start on or before this date; but an order granting it must have been given on or before 20 April 2022 for a positive resolution. If this does not happen, this question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7162, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640986434.092484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640986434.092484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12129315183294803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3377859385523028, 0.04140795100174079, 0.015216836922897737, 1.0413172957643495, 1.0064769037395584, 0.003228095225742652, 0.7568601180676041, 0.16114649993864927, 0.8682299983119937, 3.145042238527771, 1.6168290735501287, 0.0, 0.3141969465787814, 0.9884662026155059, 1.0324339884476184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09495037644869721, 0.5928369674403089, 0.10338731650712608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4044436408528118, 0.6872184256913908, 0.2844637239593917, 0.0, 0.045669104580177144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0797787163600839, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008904031237728248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24585267888888213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.2563225413968113, "coverage": 0.9970224070182059, "baseline_score": 82.52948568642341, "spot_peer_score": -6.158966459014456, "peer_archived_score": 3.2563225413968113, "baseline_archived_score": 82.52948568642341, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.158966459014456 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640986434.119236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640986434.119236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9460289528728972, 0.053971047127102816 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 152, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer who on April 20 2021 was convicted on two counts of murder and one count of manslaughter in connection with the death of [George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd). As of May 2021, he is awaiting sentencing.\n\nOn May 4 2021, Chauvin's attorney Eric Nelson filed a post-verdict motion requesting a court order granting a new trial, pursuant to Minn. R. 26.04, subd. 1, on the following\ngrounds: the interests of justice; abuse of discretion that deprived the Defendant of a fair\ntrial; prosecutorial and jury misconduct; errors of law at trial; and a verdict that is contrary\nto law. \n\nFurther, Chauvin's attorney filed a motion requesting the court to order a hearing to impeach the verdict, pursuant to Minn. R. Crim. P. 26.03, subd.\n20(6) and Schwartz v. Minneapolis Suburban Bus Co., 104 N.W.2d 301 (Minn. 1960), on\nthe grounds that the jury committed misconduct, felt threatened or intimidated, felt race-based pressure during the proceedings, and/or failed to adhere to instructions during\ndeliberations, in violation of Mr. Chauvin’s constitutional rights to due process and a fair\ntrial. \n\n[The motions can be read here.](https://www.mncourts.gov/mncourtsgov/media/High-Profile-Cases/27-CR-20-12646/Notice-of-Motion-and-Motion.pdf) (PDF)" }, { "id": 7155, "title": "Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?", "short_title": "US climate emissions halved by 2030?", "url_title": "US climate emissions halved by 2030?", "slug": "us-climate-emissions-halved-by-2030", "author_id": 112112, "author_username": "michaelchen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-04T22:20:46.432698Z", "published_at": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:23:29.270767Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7155, "title": "Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-05-04T22:20:46.432698Z", "open_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-08T23:59:32.506185Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-08T23:59:32.506185Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 22, 2021, President Joe Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels.\n\n[A statement from the White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/) writes:\n\n> Today, President Biden will announce a new target for the United States to achieve a 50-52 percent reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution in 2030 – building on progress to-date and by positioning American workers and industry to tackle the climate crisis.\n\nAccording to the [Center for Climate and Energy Solutions](https://www.c2es.org/content/u-s-emissions/), net emissions in 2017 were 5,743 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalents, 12% lower than in 2005. Net emissions in 2020 were 21% below 2005 levels and 10.3% lower than 2019 levels, according to a preliminary report by [Rhodium Group](https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us-emissions-2020/), but emission levels are expected to rise in 2021 as pandemic lockdown measures are reduced.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if there is *any* year between 2022 and 2030 (inclusive) in which the US levels of economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions (in terms of CO₂ equivalents) is at least 50.00% lower than 2005 levels, according to a reliable source that is not heavily disputed by other reliable sources. The question resolves negatively if all reliable reports (that Metaculus users can find) say that the US net emissions in each year between 2022 and 2030 were greater than 50% of 2005 levels, and there is at least one reliable report about net emission levels in 2030. (If there is no report about net emission levels in 2030, we should wait for one rather than resolving this question ambiguously.)\n\nIf the US gains or loses territories between now and 2030, ideally only the net emissions from the current territories should be considered", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7155, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763518998.455758, "end_time": 1763869126.944687, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763518998.455758, "end_time": 1763869126.944687, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01054682269937159 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.656937447168015, 4.029950533456937, 0.46671847964416074, 0.8871004396249902, 0.20561265148349345, 0.06213950589143198, 0.0, 0.09464378440008571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06671762008301016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288595.187348, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288595.187348, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9911808203721398, 0.008819179627860186 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 313, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 22, 2021, President Joe Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels.\n\n[A statement from the White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/) writes:\n\n> Today, President Biden will announce a new target for the United States to achieve a 50-52 percent reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution in 2030 – building on progress to-date and by positioning American workers and industry to tackle the climate crisis.\n\nAccording to the [Center for Climate and Energy Solutions](https://www.c2es.org/content/u-s-emissions/), net emissions in 2017 were 5,743 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalents, 12% lower than in 2005. Net emissions in 2020 were 21% below 2005 levels and 10.3% lower than 2019 levels, according to a preliminary report by [Rhodium Group](https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us-emissions-2020/), but emission levels are expected to rise in 2021 as pandemic lockdown measures are reduced." }, { "id": 7154, "title": "Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?", "short_title": "US Forgives $10K Student Debt by 2024", "url_title": "US Forgives $10K Student Debt by 2024", "slug": "us-forgives-10k-student-debt-by-2024", "author_id": 112112, "author_username": "michaelchen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-04T17:43:59.562417Z", "published_at": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.156543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 154, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 288, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7154, "title": "Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-05-04T17:43:59.562417Z", "open_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-09T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-09T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n\n* [How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/)\n\n----\n\nPresident Joe Biden of the United States has announced plans to forgive at least $10,000 in federal student loan debt per person. Some Democrats have called for $50,000 to be forgiven per person. He has asked for this to be done through Congress, but more recently he has also been considering directly taking executive action for loan cancellation. On April 1, he requested Education Secretary Miguel Cardona to write a memo exploring how much student debt the president is legally able to forgive.\n\nAs for the timeline of when student loan forgiveness may happen, CNBC's [\"$10,000 student loan forgiveness: Can Biden eliminate the debt?\" (May 1, 2021)](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/student-loan-forgiveness-may-be-on-the-way-what-to-do-in-the-meantime-.html) writes:\n\n> If Biden chooses to cancel the debt through executive action, in theory borrowers could see their balances reduced or eliminated pretty quickly. But such a move may be met by court challenges, which could lead to delays.\n>\n> A clearer picture may soon emerge.\n>\n> “If Biden decides he can do it via executive order, I expect we’ll hear about it by June or July,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors.\n\n> If the White House opts to leave student loan forgiveness to Congress, Democrats would likely use the budget reconciliation process to get it done.\n>\n> That’s because that process allows them to pass legislation with a simple majority, which is all they have. Other bills typically must garner 60 votes to advance, thanks to Senate procedural rules. Republicans are largely hostile toward the idea of a student debt jubilee.\n>\n> The next budget reconciliation process will likely be in the fall.\n\nExpert opinions on whether loan forgiveness will hapepn ([*Time*, April 29, 2021](https://time.com/nextadvisor/in-the-news/student-loan-forgiveness-predictions/)):\n\n> “A blanket $10,000 in student loan forgiveness is good for individuals, but it’s bad policy unless they do something to fix the system,” says Robert Farrington, CEO and founder of The College Investor. “I personally don’t think anything will pass.”\n>\n> “I would like to see a higher education reform package if there is student loan forgiveness,” Farrington says. “If Biden tries to do it by executive order, I would not expect it happening right away. It’ll probably get tied up with lawsuits and litigation. However, if Congress manages to pass a bill that allows student loan forgiveness sometime this summer, then I think it would happen right away.”\n>\n> “I think the $10,000 in forgiveness is likely, but I’m cautious about anything more than that,” says Laurel Taylor, CEO and founder of FutureFuel.io.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2024, a presidential executive order is signed or a Congressional bill is signed into law (or other legal means are used) that cancels at least $10,000 of US federal student loan debt for each person, and there is credible evidence that at least one student actually has received the promised debt cancellation from the bill or executive order before January 1, 2024.\n\nThere may be restrictions on who is eligible for loan forgiveness of $10,000, but these restrictions must not withhold debt cancellation from more than 10% of American citizens at least 21 years old with at least $1,000 of federal student debt. If a borrower has less than $10,000 of debt, they will be considered to have \"recieved $10,000 of loan forgiveness\" if their entire debt amount (under $10,000) is forgiven.\n\nIf no such loan forgiveness occurs, for example if the bill or executive order is declared unconstitutional before any student receives debt forgiveness, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\n*See edit history under the fine print*", "fine_print": "August 25, 2022 - casens - made a clarification that individuals who have less than 10k of student debt will be considered to have recieved the full forgiveness amount if their entire debt is forgiven.", "post_id": 7154, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075657.867467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 288, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075657.867467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 288, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04589182949514606 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.6493924527308685, 12.262670671488012, 3.096166455464482, 1.614297182319043, 0.08675010045759733, 2.2582055788525452, 0.30572520873878917, 0.5072850937524946, 0.7730674030579446, 0.0398465626565465, 1.7943069319538303, 0.0019367238825963376, 0.0, 0.5833977820494742, 0.42767157136805073, 2.0501873017717333e-06, 0.01818767139818804, 0.03880891389977835, 0.10283700569176041, 0.006119831830944889, 0.20719693693014277, 0.01382073927501541, 0.1757003922479112, 2.409896281971356e-07, 0.4145827250753491, 0.06683289578636045, 0.018862815127310383, 0.01960831484204399, 1.3323247690822772e-05, 0.0, 0.0303508341126833, 2.027445688979202e-05, 0.06803684438226833, 0.005636335910049482, 0.04674672939609883, 0.014469923863245977, 0.455889668837827, 0.0035121740762851872, 0.028605539718031342, 0.015976043582230134, 0.017177593482024807, 6.18713790497045e-05, 0.004740499780758381, 0.008887459555670489, 1.8783197336314962e-05, 9.239691192423296e-05, 0.002923323798748298, 0.002462931176023036, 0.0, 0.0031968459746453733, 0.0017381367002464122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.841906060758141e-05, 0.0076672197180667175, 0.0013248151804995268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021667722807878643, 0.0008073890217473519, 0.0, 1.0197814009611746e-05, 0.007228416922778299, 0.0015248808218749263, 2.1826094221967536e-06, 0.005841768906126147, 0.00013526090700775734, 0.00010628362001554258, 0.0009547465300931441, 0.00010512997958439196, 0.0, 0.002671268752350446, 0.0, 0.18346081043649115, 0.0, 0.00017270270920977004, 0.00018337772100532267, 0.001051904546414636, 0.0011739747724832453, 0.00040752374437928995, 0.0006242874105211552, 0.00034548451029676943, 0.0, 0.0008357979374009582, 0.0, 0.0015493081949027225, 0.000505616930957437, 0.0, 0.005955084409846019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004793000749674939, 0.0019038998394398337, 0.0012021880800557514, 0.0014757220115933444, 0.0, 0.017841231309951935 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.6232511291739, "coverage": 0.9997184186352394, "baseline_score": 20.007413048546095, "spot_peer_score": -5.481869550900978, "peer_archived_score": 23.6232511291739, "baseline_archived_score": 20.007413048546095, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.481869550900978 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075657.909276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 288, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075657.909276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 288, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9987938866017527, 0.0012061133982472945 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1282, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n\n* [How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/)\n\n----\n\nPresident Joe Biden of the United States has announced plans to forgive at least $10,000 in federal student loan debt per person. Some Democrats have called for $50,000 to be forgiven per person. He has asked for this to be done through Congress, but more recently he has also been considering directly taking executive action for loan cancellation. On April 1, he requested Education Secretary Miguel Cardona to write a memo exploring how much student debt the president is legally able to forgive.\n\nAs for the timeline of when student loan forgiveness may happen, CNBC's [\"$10,000 student loan forgiveness: Can Biden eliminate the debt?\" (May 1, 2021)](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/student-loan-forgiveness-may-be-on-the-way-what-to-do-in-the-meantime-.html) writes:\n\n> If Biden chooses to cancel the debt through executive action, in theory borrowers could see their balances reduced or eliminated pretty quickly. But such a move may be met by court challenges, which could lead to delays.\n>\n> A clearer picture may soon emerge.\n>\n> “If Biden decides he can do it via executive order, I expect we’ll hear about it by June or July,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors.\n\n> If the White House opts to leave student loan forgiveness to Congress, Democrats would likely use the budget reconciliation process to get it done.\n>\n> That’s because that process allows them to pass legislation with a simple majority, which is all they have. Other bills typically must garner 60 votes to advance, thanks to Senate procedural rules. Republicans are largely hostile toward the idea of a student debt jubilee.\n>\n> The next budget reconciliation process will likely be in the fall.\n\nExpert opinions on whether loan forgiveness will hapepn ([*Time*, April 29, 2021](https://time.com/nextadvisor/in-the-news/student-loan-forgiveness-predictions/)):\n\n> “A blanket $10,000 in student loan forgiveness is good for individuals, but it’s bad policy unless they do something to fix the system,” says Robert Farrington, CEO and founder of The College Investor. “I personally don’t think anything will pass.”\n>\n> “I would like to see a higher education reform package if there is student loan forgiveness,” Farrington says. “If Biden tries to do it by executive order, I would not expect it happening right away. It’ll probably get tied up with lawsuits and litigation. However, if Congress manages to pass a bill that allows student loan forgiveness sometime this summer, then I think it would happen right away.”\n>\n> “I think the $10,000 in forgiveness is likely, but I’m cautious about anything more than that,” says Laurel Taylor, CEO and founder of FutureFuel.io." }, { "id": 7152, "title": "Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?", "short_title": "Long March 5B debris cause injuries or damage", "url_title": "Long March 5B debris cause injuries or damage", "slug": "long-march-5b-debris-cause-injuries-or-damage", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-04T13:54:19.694631Z", "published_at": "2021-05-06T07:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.110091Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-06T07:30:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-14T07:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-14T07:11:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-06T07:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7152, "title": "Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?", "created_at": "2021-05-04T13:54:19.694631Z", "open_time": "2021-05-06T07:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-06T11:57:52.083482Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-06T11:57:52.083482Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-14T07:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-14T07:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-05-14T07:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Long March 5B](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_March_5#Fourth_flight_(CZ-5B)) rocket launched on April 29th carrying Tianhe, the core module for the planned Chinese space station. Typically space launch boosters do not reach orbit, or if they do they perform deorbit burns to reenter the atmosphere in a controlled manner. \n\nBut the Long March 5B has entered orbit and will undergo an [uncontrolled reentry](https://spacenews.com/huge-rocket-looks-set-for-uncontrolled-reentry-following-chinese-space-station-launch/). While most of the earth is uninhabited, an uncontrolled reentry presents some risk of injury or damage to inhabited areas. The Long March 5B will not be the largest uncontrolled reentry but it will be the largest in the last several decades [according to Jonathan McDowell](https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1389062285482762240), an astronomer tracking the [orbit of the Long March 5B](https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1389245047829417991).", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution will be by reliable media report that at least one person was injured, or any amount of damage was caused, by debris from the Long March 5B core stage", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7152, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1620748310.224565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1620748310.224565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.016244830165595435 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.65716765892582, 1.6728629244057953, 0.03213552540355231, 0.019331206925528154, 0.5208623626561055, 0.0, 0.07654397234055646, 0.02077493900944314, 0.0, 0.003560195227230837, 0.051045984867428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04935685122492042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14115056931138625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008989210862367118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.698468991521121, "coverage": 0.9965158242322201, "baseline_score": 94.78690177162427, "spot_peer_score": -0.5400595782812844, "peer_archived_score": 2.698468991521121, "baseline_archived_score": 94.78690177162427, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.5400595782812844 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1620748310.299993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1620748310.299993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9914292603492993, 0.008570739650700696 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Long March 5B](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_March_5#Fourth_flight_(CZ-5B)) rocket launched on April 29th carrying Tianhe, the core module for the planned Chinese space station. Typically space launch boosters do not reach orbit, or if they do they perform deorbit burns to reenter the atmosphere in a controlled manner. \n\nBut the Long March 5B has entered orbit and will undergo an [uncontrolled reentry](https://spacenews.com/huge-rocket-looks-set-for-uncontrolled-reentry-following-chinese-space-station-launch/). While most of the earth is uninhabited, an uncontrolled reentry presents some risk of injury or damage to inhabited areas. The Long March 5B will not be the largest uncontrolled reentry but it will be the largest in the last several decades [according to Jonathan McDowell](https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1389062285482762240), an astronomer tracking the [orbit of the Long March 5B](https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1389245047829417991)." }, { "id": 7150, "title": "What percentage of new passenger car sales in Australia in 2030 will be electric vehicles?", "short_title": "New EV sales in Australia in 2030", "url_title": "New EV sales in Australia in 2030", "slug": "new-ev-sales-in-australia-in-2030", "author_id": 113018, "author_username": "Grigfall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-05-02T03:44:43.803039Z", "published_at": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.713541Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-09T20:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-09T20:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-10T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-10T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7150, "title": "What percentage of new passenger car sales in Australia in 2030 will be electric vehicles?", "created_at": "2021-05-02T03:44:43.803039Z", "open_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-09T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-09T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-10T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-10T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-05-10T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-09T20:18:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-09T20:18:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Australia has lagged many other developed countries when it comes to the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Whereas over half of new passenger car sales in Norway last year were EVs, that was true for less than 1% of new passenger car sales in Australia last year ([according to Statista](https://www.caradvice.com.au/932644/global-sales-of-electric-cars-almost-doubled-in-2020/)). \n\nThe Labor Opposition took a target of 50% EVs in new car sales by 2030 [to the last federal election](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/01/50-of-new-cars-to-be-electric-vehicles-by-2030-under-labor-climate-change-policy), which the Coalition Government said was a \"war on the weekend\" because EVs would not have \"the grunt\" to pull caravans or boats. However, [the Coalition's own modelling expects 25-50% EV share of new car sales by 2030.](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/05/coalition-modelling-not-far-off-labors-electric-vehicle-target-despite-criticising-it)\n\n[The Coalition has since moderated its language around EVs,](https://thedriven.io/2021/04/01/morrison-now-claims-he-never-mocked-electric-vehicle-tecnology/) but car companies and their representatives have described Australia's EV policies as akin to \"a third world country\" (Volkswagen), a \"uniquely hostile market\" (Electric Vehicle Council) and lacking \"consistent and cohesive national targets and supporting policies\" (Nissan) ([source](https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/not-even-tesla-can-overcome-australia-s-hostility-to-electric-cars-20210414-p57izn.html))\n\nWe have one prediction already: [last year](https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/australia-to-lag-on-ev-sales-until-2030s-bnef-20200522-p54vfd) BloombergNEF predicted EVs as 18% of new car sales in 2030.", "resolution_criteria": "The answer will be the share of new passenger vehicles sold in Australia in 2030 that are [battery electric vehicles or fuel cell electric vehicles](https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/electric-vehicles/) (i.e. hybrids are not included).", "fine_print": "If there is an Australian Government figure for total new passenger vehicle sales and total new passenger EV sales for the year 2030, that will be used for resolution. \n\nOtherwise, a figure from BloombergNEF will be used, if they calculate one.\n\nOtherwise, a figure that is reported in a reliable news source like the Sydney Morning Herald, the Age, the Guardian or the Australian will be used. If different figures are reported across these sources and it is not clear which figure is more rigorous, an average can be used.", "post_id": 7150, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1620403355.841777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1620403355.841777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.28882573925536253 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1620547578.528644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1620547578.528644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7522768425465194, 0.24772315745348056 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Australia has lagged many other developed countries when it comes to the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Whereas over half of new passenger car sales in Norway last year were EVs, that was true for less than 1% of new passenger car sales in Australia last year ([according to Statista](https://www.caradvice.com.au/932644/global-sales-of-electric-cars-almost-doubled-in-2020/)). \n\nThe Labor Opposition took a target of 50% EVs in new car sales by 2030 [to the last federal election](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/01/50-of-new-cars-to-be-electric-vehicles-by-2030-under-labor-climate-change-policy), which the Coalition Government said was a \"war on the weekend\" because EVs would not have \"the grunt\" to pull caravans or boats. However, [the Coalition's own modelling expects 25-50% EV share of new car sales by 2030.](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/05/coalition-modelling-not-far-off-labors-electric-vehicle-target-despite-criticising-it)\n\n[The Coalition has since moderated its language around EVs,](https://thedriven.io/2021/04/01/morrison-now-claims-he-never-mocked-electric-vehicle-tecnology/) but car companies and their representatives have described Australia's EV policies as akin to \"a third world country\" (Volkswagen), a \"uniquely hostile market\" (Electric Vehicle Council) and lacking \"consistent and cohesive national targets and supporting policies\" (Nissan) ([source](https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/not-even-tesla-can-overcome-australia-s-hostility-to-electric-cars-20210414-p57izn.html))\n\nWe have one prediction already: [last year](https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/australia-to-lag-on-ev-sales-until-2030s-bnef-20200522-p54vfd) BloombergNEF predicted EVs as 18% of new car sales in 2030." }, { "id": 7139, "title": "Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?", "short_title": "Próspera population in 2021 above 1000", "url_title": "Próspera population in 2021 above 1000", "slug": "prospera-population-in-2021-above-1000", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-29T11:03:24.491833Z", "published_at": "2021-05-01T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.456390Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-01T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:15:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-01T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7139, "title": "Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?", "created_at": "2021-04-29T11:03:24.491833Z", "open_time": "2021-05-01T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-02T23:39:36.209329Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-02T23:39:36.209329Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-02T01:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Próspera](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Pr%C3%B3spera) is\n\n> a private charter city and special economic zone on the island of Roatán in the Central American state of Honduras. The city is based on a concept by American economist Paul Romer and is intended to form a quasi-independent city-state with private government and its own fiscal, regulatory, and legal architecture.\n\nThe city is being developed in a previously unoccupied 58 acre area that has been carved out of Honduras under a legal arrangement called ZEDE (Spanish acronym for Zone for Employment and Economic Development). Under this regulation, other parts of Honduras could be annexed to Próspera in the future as long as the owners of the land are willing to sell it to the city. This land need not be contiguous with the current tract, which could turn Próspera into a network of exclaves within Honduras.\n\nThe city currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent population. The project seeks to attract both Hondurans escaping poverty and violence and highly mobile international professionals with a package of pro-market, business-friendly, libertarian policies.\n\nFor an in-depth review of the project, see [this post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera) by Scott Alexander.\n\nScott [forecasted](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021) there was a 30% chance that Próspera would have a population >= 1,000 in 2021.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if the population (according to credible sources) of Próspera is >= 1000 at any point during 2021.\n\nIf no sources claim this, but Scott Alexander resolves his prediction positively, then this question resolves positive (at the admin's discretion, to avoid him personally gaming the system).\n\nIf not, it resolves negative.\n\n*** Related questions ***\n\n[What will be the population of Próspera in 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7139, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638292290.089991, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638292290.089991, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025589656003874865 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 12.247568293712291, 1.3594231066431863, 1.7826252517437335, 1.1201199942407505, 0.10246425529465453, 0.73622197439902, 0.03362666764955342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007629231293809452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9499387944211455, 0.0044046995316723864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002606167907938849, 0.0034023113166316774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001963403728513482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019716001052375908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029475860096120354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001297534598106844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04871973276129222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.912330341359319, "coverage": 0.9984770428674509, "baseline_score": 83.17593405912024, "spot_peer_score": 17.776526889623945, "peer_archived_score": 6.912330341359319, "baseline_archived_score": 83.17593405912024, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.776526889623945 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638292290.167725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638292290.167725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 231, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Próspera](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Pr%C3%B3spera) is\n\n> a private charter city and special economic zone on the island of Roatán in the Central American state of Honduras. The city is based on a concept by American economist Paul Romer and is intended to form a quasi-independent city-state with private government and its own fiscal, regulatory, and legal architecture.\n\nThe city is being developed in a previously unoccupied 58 acre area that has been carved out of Honduras under a legal arrangement called ZEDE (Spanish acronym for Zone for Employment and Economic Development). Under this regulation, other parts of Honduras could be annexed to Próspera in the future as long as the owners of the land are willing to sell it to the city. This land need not be contiguous with the current tract, which could turn Próspera into a network of exclaves within Honduras.\n\nThe city currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent population. The project seeks to attract both Hondurans escaping poverty and violence and highly mobile international professionals with a package of pro-market, business-friendly, libertarian policies.\n\nFor an in-depth review of the project, see [this post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera) by Scott Alexander.\n\nScott [forecasted](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021) there was a 30% chance that Próspera would have a population >= 1,000 in 2021." } ] }