Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4880
{ "count": 6394, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4900", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4860", "results": [ { "id": 7138, "title": "Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?", "short_title": "Boris Johnson UK PM in 2022?", "url_title": "Boris Johnson UK PM in 2022?", "slug": "boris-johnson-uk-pm-in-2022", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-29T02:01:36.278619Z", "published_at": "2021-05-09T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.957490Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-09T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T16:12:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-09T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 155, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7138, "title": "Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?", "created_at": "2021-04-29T02:01:36.278619Z", "open_time": "2021-05-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-09T16:15:19.643058Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-09T16:15:19.643058Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T16:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T16:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\n\nJohnson is considered a divisive or controversial figure in UK politics. Supporters have praised him as optimistic, humorous and entertaining, with an appeal stretching beyond traditional Conservative voters. Conversely, his critics have accused him of elitism, cronyism, and prejudice. His actions that are viewed by supporters as pragmatic tend to be viewed by opponents as opportunistic.\n\nAs of April 2021, Johnson is the subject of a controversy concerning renovation of his official residence in Downing Street, and [the British Electoral Commission is to investigate the affair.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56915307)\n\n>The spending watchdog said there were \"reasonable grounds to suspect that an offence or offences may have occurred\".\n\n>The PM is under growing pressure to declare how refurbishments were paid for after his ex-adviser said there was a plan for donors to \"secretly pay\".\n\n>Mr Johnson told MPs he had covered the revamp \"personally\", but would not say who had paid the initial bill.\n\nAs of late April 2021, [Johnson's Conservative Party has a comfortable lead in national polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021), a strong House of Commons majority, and no general election is required in 2021.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on January 1 2022. It resolves negatively if this is not the case", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638315255.088972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638315255.088972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9748452077950865 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004266767581154638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015806808643073552, 0.0006420270736327521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011679739580873235, 0.0020416536273064807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04557978132556554, 0.1280671803179123, 0.0, 0.05166025178271519, 0.003999058311460654, 0.0012741926194359057, 5.5222046741725685e-05, 0.0, 0.370983451041718, 0.00010801128909630193, 0.41329358185415066, 0.40444693842841356, 0.04822579824406107, 0.3638095227846869, 0.049639030004373454, 0.8458583777122468, 1.3730692053900924, 2.1526714767092727, 5.36697292637696, 11.767065972092297 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.062283595710972, "coverage": 0.9995568246234744, "baseline_score": 90.189196288796, "spot_peer_score": 2.5757924766392297, "peer_archived_score": 5.062283595710972, "baseline_archived_score": 90.189196288796, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.5757924766392297 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638315255.119028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638315255.119028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.01944121121550879, 0.9805587887844912 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 349, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\n\nJohnson is considered a divisive or controversial figure in UK politics. Supporters have praised him as optimistic, humorous and entertaining, with an appeal stretching beyond traditional Conservative voters. Conversely, his critics have accused him of elitism, cronyism, and prejudice. His actions that are viewed by supporters as pragmatic tend to be viewed by opponents as opportunistic.\n\nAs of April 2021, Johnson is the subject of a controversy concerning renovation of his official residence in Downing Street, and [the British Electoral Commission is to investigate the affair.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56915307)\n\n>The spending watchdog said there were \"reasonable grounds to suspect that an offence or offences may have occurred\".\n\n>The PM is under growing pressure to declare how refurbishments were paid for after his ex-adviser said there was a plan for donors to \"secretly pay\".\n\n>Mr Johnson told MPs he had covered the revamp \"personally\", but would not say who had paid the initial bill.\n\nAs of late April 2021, [Johnson's Conservative Party has a comfortable lead in national polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021), a strong House of Commons majority, and no general election is required in 2021." }, { "id": 7129, "title": "Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?", "short_title": "Will Virginia achieve herd immunity by 9/1?", "url_title": "Will Virginia achieve herd immunity by 9/1?", "slug": "will-virginia-achieve-herd-immunity-by-91", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111848, "username": "juancambeiro" } ], "created_at": "2021-04-29T00:59:58.762768Z", "published_at": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.839186Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-30T14:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-30T14:23:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2977, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-08-01T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.285149Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:50:36.331197Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2977, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-08-01T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.285149Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:50:36.331197Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 940, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe Tournament", "slug": "vdh", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Keeping_Virginia_Safe_Banner_XHpMAOp.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Tournament! Public health officials in Virginia are currently weighing key decisions that have to be made in preparation for the summer and fall. Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nDetails regarding Round 2 will be announced over the summer. \r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.873147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7129, "title": "Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?", "created_at": "2021-04-29T00:59:58.762768Z", "open_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-01T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-30T14:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-30T14:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-30T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Herd immunity](https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html) occurs when a high enough share of a population has either natural or vaccine-induced immunity to a contagious disease to lower reproduction rates below 1.0. Experts have [not](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html) [reached](https://roanoke.com/news/local/demand-for-vaccine-begins-to-wane-in-some-virginia-communities/article_da78114e-8c10-11eb-acb0-07a7c7782cd2.html) [consensus](https://khn.org/news/article/can-vaccination-and-infection-rates-add-up-to-reach-covid-herd-immunity/) around the share needed to reach herd immunity for COVID-19, or whether herd immunity is [even possible](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2). Vaccine hesitancy, variants which escape natural or induced immunity, waning immunity, and an uneven vaccine rollout may may limit herd immunity in Virginia, or in some Virginia communities.\n\n\nThe [UVA Biocomplexity Institute](https://biocomplexity.virginia.edu/project/covid-19-pandemic-response) has been providing modeling and advanced analytics for the Commonwealth of Virginia, including [projections](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/uva-covid-19-model/) and a slide deck with with data and results, [updated weekly](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/). This includes assigning a case trajectory [(see slides 8 and 9)](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/04/COVID-19_VA_Spread_14-April-2021.pdf) to each of Virginia's 35 [Local Health Districts](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/local-health-districts/) (LHDs). LHDs are administrative units and range in scale from individual cities to groups of several counties. \n\n\nTrajectories indicate the direction and speed of case rate change rather than incidence level. Trajectories are: \n>\n- **Declining:** Sustained decreases following a recent peak\n- **Plateau:** Steady level with minimal trend up or down.\n- **Slow Growth:** Sustained growth not rapid enough to be considered a Surge\n- **In Surge:** Currently experiencing sustained rapid and significant growth.", "resolution_criteria": "Trajectories resolve based on the slide decks posted on the Virginia Department of Health's [COVID-19 Data Insights Blog](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/). The question resolves ambiguously if the UVA Biocomplexity stops publishing district trajectories, or eliminates the \"Declining\" or \"Plateau\" categories prior to a \"Yes\" resolution. However, changes in method or criteria do not affect resolution. Surge trajectories are also published on the UVA Biocomplexity Institute's [COVID-19 Pandemic Response](https://biocomplexity.virginia.edu/project/covid-19-pandemic-response) page and in the [UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/uva-covid-19-model/). However, these are preliminary and do not affect resolution. \n\n\nThe Virginia Department of Health reports [weekly case data by health district](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/weekly-health-district-case-data/). Population data is based on the latest Vintage [Bridged-Race Postcensal Population Estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/bridged_race/data_documentation.htm). (Note: These are usually updated in July).\n\n*19 July 2021 clarification: A 3 consecutive week period here means there must be a single three-week period in which all health districts are in decline or plateau or have less than 5 cases per 100k.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7129, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627815661.848885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627815661.848885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04874695603629885 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.738154994101277, 1.3121520014511086, 2.909269402726084, 0.09855120940124697, 1.5144939292817121, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08926029747599007, 0.15660810393899482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5305354475802987, 0.13827106970594966, 0.016579741893434776, 0.05265139568081303, 0.0, 0.01760784523315785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041854423028354265, 0.03283702835426392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02892019494468926, 0.0, 0.1721577213751192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002473836920010813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39240618529421484, 0.0, 0.0016348593756712248, 0.008476588784980537, 0.0, 0.01921436943183433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025361041026324103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012080067640697419, 0.0, 0.006966037356848386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0044440085329729906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00562727195348949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010175510648281665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.461146365030388, "coverage": 0.9974444934215158, "baseline_score": 8.565710607509207, "spot_peer_score": 22.396230115738813, "peer_archived_score": 15.461146365030388, "baseline_archived_score": 8.565710607509207, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.396230115738813 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627815661.881333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627815661.881333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9875904652933594, 0.012409534706640662 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 246, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Herd immunity](https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html) occurs when a high enough share of a population has either natural or vaccine-induced immunity to a contagious disease to lower reproduction rates below 1.0. Experts have [not](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html) [reached](https://roanoke.com/news/local/demand-for-vaccine-begins-to-wane-in-some-virginia-communities/article_da78114e-8c10-11eb-acb0-07a7c7782cd2.html) [consensus](https://khn.org/news/article/can-vaccination-and-infection-rates-add-up-to-reach-covid-herd-immunity/) around the share needed to reach herd immunity for COVID-19, or whether herd immunity is [even possible](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2). Vaccine hesitancy, variants which escape natural or induced immunity, waning immunity, and an uneven vaccine rollout may may limit herd immunity in Virginia, or in some Virginia communities.\n\n\nThe [UVA Biocomplexity Institute](https://biocomplexity.virginia.edu/project/covid-19-pandemic-response) has been providing modeling and advanced analytics for the Commonwealth of Virginia, including [projections](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/uva-covid-19-model/) and a slide deck with with data and results, [updated weekly](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/). This includes assigning a case trajectory [(see slides 8 and 9)](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/04/COVID-19_VA_Spread_14-April-2021.pdf) to each of Virginia's 35 [Local Health Districts](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/local-health-districts/) (LHDs). LHDs are administrative units and range in scale from individual cities to groups of several counties. \n\n\nTrajectories indicate the direction and speed of case rate change rather than incidence level. Trajectories are: \n>\n- **Declining:** Sustained decreases following a recent peak\n- **Plateau:** Steady level with minimal trend up or down.\n- **Slow Growth:** Sustained growth not rapid enough to be considered a Surge\n- **In Surge:** Currently experiencing sustained rapid and significant growth." }, { "id": 7128, "title": "Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?", "short_title": "VOCs to make up >50% of Virginia sequences?", "url_title": "VOCs to make up >50% of Virginia sequences?", "slug": "vocs-to-make-up-50-of-virginia-sequences", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111848, "username": "juancambeiro" } ], "created_at": "2021-04-29T00:51:10.767478Z", "published_at": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.590611Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-07-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2977, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-08-01T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.285149Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:50:36.331197Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2977, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-08-01T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.285149Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:50:36.331197Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 940, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe Tournament", "slug": "vdh", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Keeping_Virginia_Safe_Banner_XHpMAOp.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Tournament! Public health officials in Virginia are currently weighing key decisions that have to be made in preparation for the summer and fall. Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nDetails regarding Round 2 will be announced over the summer. \r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.873147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7128, "title": "Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?", "created_at": "2021-04-29T00:51:10.767478Z", "open_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-01T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There are currently numerous SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the U.S. that are thought to be able to partially evade immunity induced by prior infection and/or vaccination.\n\n\nMultiple [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2100362) that have [higher transmissibility](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055), cause [more severe disease](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579), or [that can evade immunity to some extent](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1103) have been detected and [tracked](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) since late 2020. \n\n\nOf particular concern to public health authorities in Virginia are SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating that are thought to be able to partially evade immunity induced by prior infection and/or vaccination. \n\n\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html). For our purposes, variants of concern and variants of high consequence are of particular interest:\n\n\n>\n- **Variant of concern (VOC)**: “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 April, there are five VOCs: B.1.1.7, P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429.\n- **Variant of high consequence (VOHC)**: “variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 April, there are no VOHCs.\n\n\nOf the five variants categorized under these categories (all five are VOCs), as of 27 April 2021 there are four that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" (indicating they are able to partially evade immunity induced by infection and vaccination): P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429. As of 27 April 2021, 8.8% of total available sequences in Virginia are one of these four VOCs: 2.3% B.1.351, 6.0% B.1.427/B.1.429, 0.5% P.1.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve on the basis of the most recent update of the \"Unweighted Proportions of Variants of Concern and Other Lineages by State or Jurisdiction\" table on the U.S. CDC's [\"Variant Proportions\"](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fgenomic-surveillance-dashboard.html#variant-proportions) page. The percentages of VOCs that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" will be added up for the two-week period ending 11 September 2021. \n\n\nIf between now and 11 September there are additional variants classified as variants of concern that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera,\" these will count toward the total percent figure. Likewise, if any of the four variants of concern that are currently classified as causing partial immune escape are removed from being classified as such, they will no longer count toward the total percent figure.\n\n**27 July edit: Any additional variants that as of question resolution on 1 October are classified by the CDC as variants of concern that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" will count toward the total percent figure.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7128, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627565213.147503, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627565213.147503, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6878963851902429 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1147878510099504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0221885908364169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00741623973729105, 0.0, 0.02872939583514363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26264964173441213, 0.004923348169013251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008902640948057735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.043297753999481985, 0.0014303523946117215, 0.0, 0.0, 3.21672393719802, 0.9323271647042964, 0.764117641364322, 0.6253409490326358, 0.23878801687053713, 0.0038881009225659245, 1.7015074312353649, 0.431007191772122, 0.6647089477243179, 0.01936509307245438, 0.4038904263162993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16442976034727774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.569560713332475, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3007829175737988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12833663304671977, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1634721674684947, 0.0, 0.2712168925010875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059588371182123 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.0321351887457375, "coverage": 0.9979157145254991, "baseline_score": -37.254686014825495, "spot_peer_score": -2.484276122901437, "peer_archived_score": 6.0321351887457375, "baseline_archived_score": -37.254686014825495, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.484276122901437 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627565213.337441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627565213.337441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.33323643114325685, 0.6667635688567431 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 227, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are currently numerous SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the U.S. that are thought to be able to partially evade immunity induced by prior infection and/or vaccination.\n\n\nMultiple [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2100362) that have [higher transmissibility](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055), cause [more severe disease](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579), or [that can evade immunity to some extent](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1103) have been detected and [tracked](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) since late 2020. \n\n\nOf particular concern to public health authorities in Virginia are SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating that are thought to be able to partially evade immunity induced by prior infection and/or vaccination. \n\n\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html). For our purposes, variants of concern and variants of high consequence are of particular interest:\n\n\n>\n- **Variant of concern (VOC)**: “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 April, there are five VOCs: B.1.1.7, P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429.\n- **Variant of high consequence (VOHC)**: “variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 April, there are no VOHCs.\n\n\nOf the five variants categorized under these categories (all five are VOCs), as of 27 April 2021 there are four that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" (indicating they are able to partially evade immunity induced by infection and vaccination): P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429. As of 27 April 2021, 8.8% of total available sequences in Virginia are one of these four VOCs: 2.3% B.1.351, 6.0% B.1.427/B.1.429, 0.5% P.1." }, { "id": 7123, "title": "Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?", "short_title": "VA medical practices lead vaccine delivery?", "url_title": "VA medical practices lead vaccine delivery?", "slug": "va-medical-practices-lead-vaccine-delivery", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111848, "username": "juancambeiro" } ], "created_at": "2021-04-29T00:31:10.869849Z", "published_at": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.256341Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-02T23:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-02T23:29:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2977, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-08-01T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.285149Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:50:36.331197Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2977, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-08-01T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.285149Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:50:36.331197Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 940, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe Tournament", "slug": "vdh", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Keeping_Virginia_Safe_Banner_XHpMAOp.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Tournament! Public health officials in Virginia are currently weighing key decisions that have to be made in preparation for the summer and fall. Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nDetails regarding Round 2 will be announced over the summer. \r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.873147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7123, "title": "Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?", "created_at": "2021-04-29T00:31:10.869849Z", "open_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-01T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-02T23:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-02T23:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-02T23:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Virginian hospitals, local health departments, medical practices, pharmacies, and other community health providers have all been [important facilities for administering COVID-19 vaccines](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines-received/). 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As of late April, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 16+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old. \n\n\nThere are currently no vaccines approved for use in children under 16, though on 9 April 2021 Pfizer [requested an amendment](https://cdn.pfizer.com/pfizercom/2021-04/EUA-12-15yo-Statement-9-April-2021.pdf?VersionId=Vg2h9d1M1XTo58jO8UIogPxXeLcn27cH) to its authorization to extend to the 12-15 year old age group. \n\n\nIn March 2021, Pfizer [announced it began testing its vaccine in children aged 5 to 11 years](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-biontech-announce-positive-topline-results-pivotal), with plans to expand to 2 to 5 years and then to 6 months to 2 years. Also in March 2021, Moderna [announced a trial in children 6 months to 12 years of age](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-first-participants-dosed-phase-23-study-0). In early April 2021, Janssen [announced it was testing its vaccine in the 12-17 age group](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-expands-phase-2a-clinical-trial-of-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-to-include-adolescents).\n\n***Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?***\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of a [press announcement by the FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements) stating that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine has been authorized for children under 12 years of age. 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"politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7115, "title": "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?", "created_at": "2021-04-27T15:04:04.408291Z", "open_time": "2021-04-30T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-01T03:47:51.742584Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-01T03:47:51.742584Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-15T03:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-15T03:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-09-15T03:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-13T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-13T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[After successfully collecting more than 1.5mm signatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/) Gavin Newsom is facing a recall election in 2021.\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve on the basis of credible media reports. It does not matter when the election takes place. If a recall election does not take place before the 2022 gubernatorial election then this resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple recall elections prior to the 2022 gubernatorial election, only the first one counts", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7115, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1631509710.397608, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1631509710.397608, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.8749078876830708 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.4624376949726254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1719590801937211e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019226837017272903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024615723858015248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6964088917434695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.14421235332821e-06, 0.0, 0.0012066708068594254, 0.0, 0.00019888686252321895, 0.0, 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signatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/) Gavin Newsom is facing a recall election in 2021.\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 7113, "title": "Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?", "short_title": "Fully autonomous Tesla in 2021", "url_title": "Fully autonomous Tesla in 2021", "slug": "fully-autonomous-tesla-in-2021", "author_id": 113729, "author_username": "tdevassal", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-26T00:41:43.191533Z", "published_at": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.157634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:29:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z", 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7113, "title": "Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?", "created_at": "2021-04-26T00:41:43.191533Z", "open_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-11T20:44:04.727387Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-11T20:44:04.727387Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T20:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In January of 2021, Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1345208391958888448?s=20): \"Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.\"\nTesla did release earlier this year the beta for what they call [Full Self-Driving Capability](https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot), which suggests an improvement on the driver assistance system, presumably with less driver input, or even none as Elon Musk suggests in his tweet.\n\nHowever, Elon Musk is known to make bold statements about the capabilities of the cars his company produces, sometimes bordering on bad faith. According to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/tesla-autopilot-full-self-driving-subscription-early-2021-elon-musk-2020-12), in 2015, he predicted that the company's fully autonomous vehicles would be ready by 2018. In 2016, he said a Tesla would drive itself coast to coast the following year. In early 2019, Musk said he was certain that a Tesla \"will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention - this year.\"", "resolution_criteria": "For the definition of fully autonomous cars, we'll be referencing the \"self driving level 5\", as defined by the SAE International: \"the vehicle performs all driving tasks under all conditions. Zero human attention or interaction is required.\" We will allow cars that need human override in extreme circumstances, but we expect less than one override per car in a typical year. Besides being autonomous, the vehicle will have to perform as well as (or better than) a normal car with an average driver.\n\nElon Musk raised valid concerns about the regulatory environment, which might cause a delay in the adoption of the technology. I believe however that, in the case of a successful development of the required software updates and/or new prototypes, Tesla will provide enough information to the press to allow for the publication of unequivocal articles referencing explicitly the tested unit's compliance with \"self driving level 5\" requirements as defined by the SAE International. The resolution criteria will be the publication of such articles in at least two publications among the following:\n[The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com); [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/); [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com); [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/)\n; [The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/); [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/).", "fine_print": "As of April 2021, no such vehicle exists for sale to the general public anywhere in the world. Consequently, no technology available to use by the public until now can alone justify the positive resolution of this question.", "post_id": 7113, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635694402.376446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635694402.376446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02177756967856621 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 13.738149271123515, 2.8498153548551146, 1.8067428223399786, 0.15221596960475064, 1.2794023876762428, 0.0, 0.0005099186258927597, 0.011243979008062928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010413832392830353, 0.546044661874978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19997595456458236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.3304507503524277, "coverage": 0.9995570863029756, "baseline_score": 98.39941585036804, "spot_peer_score": 10.535563701595269, "peer_archived_score": 2.3304507503524277, "baseline_archived_score": 98.39941585036804, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.535563701595269 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635694402.400972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635694402.400972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9949696634239183, 0.005030336576081685 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 189, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In January of 2021, Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1345208391958888448?s=20): \"Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.\"\nTesla did release earlier this year the beta for what they call [Full Self-Driving Capability](https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot), which suggests an improvement on the driver assistance system, presumably with less driver input, or even none as Elon Musk suggests in his tweet.\n\nHowever, Elon Musk is known to make bold statements about the capabilities of the cars his company produces, sometimes bordering on bad faith. According to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/tesla-autopilot-full-self-driving-subscription-early-2021-elon-musk-2020-12), in 2015, he predicted that the company's fully autonomous vehicles would be ready by 2018. In 2016, he said a Tesla would drive itself coast to coast the following year. In early 2019, Musk said he was certain that a Tesla \"will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention - this year.\"" }, { "id": 7109, "title": "Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work before 2035?", "short_title": "Bitcoin Abandons POW by 2035", "url_title": "Bitcoin Abandons POW by 2035", "slug": "bitcoin-abandons-pow-by-2035", "author_id": 116025, "author_username": "jungler", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-24T17:33:58.617001Z", "published_at": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T18:07:07.681739Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 119, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7109, "title": "Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work before 2035?", "created_at": "2021-04-24T17:33:58.617001Z", "open_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Proof-of-work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_work) (PoW) is well known for being a secure consensus mechanism that consumes a lot of energy. [Proof-of-stake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_stake) (PoS) is known as an alternative that consumes less energy but is hard to get just right for security. There are also other less well-known [proof-of-'x'](https://golden.com/wiki/Cluster%3A_Blockchain_and_cryptocurrency-8AR86E6#Base-layer-protocols_Consensus) consensus mechanisms. \n\nEthereum and Bitcoin, currently the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap (Apr 2021), both use PoW. But Ethereum is in the process of moving the chain to a PoS protocol.", "resolution_criteria": "If there is a fork with one chain keeping PoW and the other going with a different consensus mechanism, whichever chain has the larger market cap by Dec 31, 2034 will 'win'. If there are a series of forks then whichever decedent has the largest market cap will.\n\nIf Bitcoin's market cap (the greatest-valued fork) is worth less than 500x of the market cap of another cryptocurrency, this question will resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7109, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763705831.175163, "end_time": 1765093552.296867, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.065 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763705831.175163, "end_time": 1765093552.296867, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.065 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06130487885573308 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.130979801236964, 4.114478714129309, 1.5950364656264355, 0.9107240968345471, 0.0, 4.024742279768629, 2.8090013677210814, 0.13347072006867497, 1.1983095408162956, 0.5365937717914905, 0.30318477125095733, 0.0, 0.009501711521969988, 0.06217576471753762, 0.0, 0.19359770115728128, 0.0010606664926521671, 0.0, 0.10719724868440655, 0.0, 0.07648322519348015, 0.05880386892655709, 0.007084270917400775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021721036730799502, 0.01511596887907778, 0.0, 0.20191891269137635, 0.0, 0.02947235771709421, 0.023142251301039172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002984801894823708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.562713771697854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02511113768417862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00412801400445961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004622951861781569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.050516811044571494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008653094397426326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036749449916905963 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288608.473694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288608.473694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9804942110230577, 0.019505788976942325 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 337, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Proof-of-work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_work) (PoW) is well known for being a secure consensus mechanism that consumes a lot of energy. [Proof-of-stake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_stake) (PoS) is known as an alternative that consumes less energy but is hard to get just right for security. There are also other less well-known [proof-of-'x'](https://golden.com/wiki/Cluster%3A_Blockchain_and_cryptocurrency-8AR86E6#Base-layer-protocols_Consensus) consensus mechanisms. \n\nEthereum and Bitcoin, currently the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap (Apr 2021), both use PoW. But Ethereum is in the process of moving the chain to a PoS protocol." }, { "id": 7106, "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?", "short_title": "Carlsen retains the World Championship crown", "url_title": "Carlsen retains the World Championship crown", "slug": "carlsen-retains-the-world-championship-crown", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-23T14:00:03.903639Z", "published_at": "2021-04-28T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.020115Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-28T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-23T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-23T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-10T17:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-10T17:27:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-28T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7106, "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?", "created_at": "2021-04-23T14:00:03.903639Z", "open_time": "2021-04-28T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-10T17:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-10T17:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-10T17:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-23T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-23T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen) is currently the strongest chess player in the world and has maintained the [#1 ranking spot](https://ratings.fide.com/top_files.phtml?id=1503014) since 2011. In the most recent World Championship in London 2018 he defeated [Fabiano Caruana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabiano_Caruana) in tie-breaks after 12 draws.\n\n[Ian Nepomniachtchi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Nepomniachtchi) won the right to play Carlsen by winning the [2020-21 Candidates Tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2020%E2%80%9321). Ian Nepomniachtchi is the current world #3 and holds a positive head-to-head against Magnus Carlsen +4 -1 =6. (Although several of his wins came when they were both very young).\n\nThe [expected format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2021) is that Magnus Carlsen and Ian Nepomniachtchi will play a best-of 14 match + tiebreaks in Dubai at Expo 2020 (in December 2021) although this question does not depend on when the match takes place.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if Magnus Carlsen wins the next World Championship match (regardless of challenger or location in the event of delays). It also resolves positive if he retains the crown because of the challenger defaulting in some way. This question resolves negative if Magnus Carlsen loses the next World Championship match", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7106, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1637621836.916755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1637621836.916755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.7843005029443824 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08172537534710125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012372180369560906, 8.336309559322703e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03971180116665507, 0.12422249800929296, 0.0, 1.5210108107677165, 0.017115864019928928, 2.360350967302299, 0.7744809264519252, 0.9529199158212945, 0.9604737191683386, 0.8100647967387832, 1.1435753227042382, 0.188495774556192, 0.9999342369204094, 1.4421946785129114, 0.8170454518305293, 2.4734686205166034, 0.6252119663652832, 1.3534961388903635, 0.14550717535702318, 1.8896422821425238, 0.000615974589918873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19032390502254212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009583214515414912, 0.0, 0.2908474683087702, 0.0, 0.0545307742321855, 0.0, 0.009651971118977278 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.8909238151352348, "coverage": 0.9998474837088419, "baseline_score": 68.28257290952166, "spot_peer_score": 6.08897148747137, "peer_archived_score": 1.8909238151352348, "baseline_archived_score": 68.28257290952166, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.08897148747137 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1637621836.948143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1637621836.948143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.18492002761503656, 0.8150799723849634 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 218, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen) is currently the strongest chess player in the world and has maintained the [#1 ranking spot](https://ratings.fide.com/top_files.phtml?id=1503014) since 2011. In the most recent World Championship in London 2018 he defeated [Fabiano Caruana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabiano_Caruana) in tie-breaks after 12 draws.\n\n[Ian Nepomniachtchi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Nepomniachtchi) won the right to play Carlsen by winning the [2020-21 Candidates Tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2020%E2%80%9321). Ian Nepomniachtchi is the current world #3 and holds a positive head-to-head against Magnus Carlsen +4 -1 =6. (Although several of his wins came when they were both very young).\n\nThe [expected format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2021) is that Magnus Carlsen and Ian Nepomniachtchi will play a best-of 14 match + tiebreaks in Dubai at Expo 2020 (in December 2021) although this question does not depend on when the match takes place." }, { "id": 7101, "title": "Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?", "short_title": "Forethought Foundation flourishes for 4 years", "url_title": "Forethought Foundation flourishes for 4 years", "slug": "forethought-foundation-flourishes-for-4-years", "author_id": 112451, "author_username": "NunoSempere", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-22T16:16:56.531738Z", "published_at": "2021-07-01T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T20:02:18.028788Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-01T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-07-01T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7101, "title": "Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?", "created_at": "2021-04-22T16:16:56.531738Z", "open_time": "2021-07-01T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-03T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research](https://www.forethought.org/about-us) is a recently launched think tank led by William MacAskill, which \"aims to promote academic work that addresses the question of how to use our scarce resources to improve the world by as much as possible\". It has recently been [hiring](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ndEZwLXN8ynLdRkxR/the-forethought-foundation-is-hiring)", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. 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Will they succeed in creating a charity on this topic in their 2021 incubation program?\n\nPast charities incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html)", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution will be according to reliable reports, e.g., Charity Entrepreneurship's own website or EA Global's customary introduction of new charities, as decided by Metaculus admins/moderators.\n\nExamples of \"family planning\" related activities might be\": supporting mothers during pregnancy or childbirth, giving information about the pros and cons of having a child, sex-education, access to contraceptives, etc. Per [Charity Entrepeneurship's post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wx6Xw63yJt67YKdzh/why-start-a-family-planning-charity-founders-needed-1), such a charity would most-likely focus on access to contraceptives after childbirth", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7097, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1633971245.32459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1633971245.32459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1997380527411286 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 1.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5023065402709107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7236774728406938, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -2.588993534816313, "coverage": 0.9975148174740792, "baseline_score": 13.197742154481862, "spot_peer_score": -18.734672472070535, "peer_archived_score": -2.588993534816313, "baseline_archived_score": 13.197742154481862, "spot_peer_archived_score": -18.734672472070535 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1633971245.339745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1633971245.339745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9094968519061881, 0.09050314809381187 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship recently [called for co-founders to create a family planning charity](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wx6Xw63yJt67YKdzh/why-start-a-family-planning-charity-founders-needed-1). Will they succeed in creating a charity on this topic in their 2021 incubation program?\n\nPast charities incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html)" }, { "id": 7096, "title": "Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?", "short_title": "Fortifying Feed for Hens Charity in 2021?", "url_title": "Fortifying Feed for Hens Charity in 2021?", "slug": "fortifying-feed-for-hens-charity-in-2021", "author_id": 112451, "author_username": "NunoSempere", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-22T15:57:53.968829Z", "published_at": "2021-05-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.639525Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-05T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-05T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-11T15:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-11T15:33:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-15T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7096, "title": "Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?", "created_at": "2021-04-22T15:57:53.968829Z", "open_time": "2021-05-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-11T15:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-11T15:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-11T15:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-05T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-05T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship recently [called for co-founders to create a charity fortifying feed hens](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/22ioZWmandAzKSNkC/why-we-want-to-start-a-charity-fortifying-feed-for-hens). 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Will they succeed in creating a charity on this topic in their 2021 incubation program?\n\nPast charities incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html)." }, { "id": 7082, "title": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?", "short_title": "Ghislaine Maxwell Confirmed Reddit Accout", "url_title": "Ghislaine Maxwell Confirmed Reddit Accout", "slug": "ghislaine-maxwell-confirmed-reddit-accout", "author_id": 113018, "author_username": "Grigfall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-21T12:22:38.756068Z", "published_at": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T20:03:06.152958Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 68, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 158, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7082, "title": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?", "created_at": "2021-04-21T12:22:38.756068Z", "open_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-15T12:55:07.098792Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-15T12:55:07.098792Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account [maxwellhill](https://www.reddit.com/user/maxwellhill) belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls. \n\nu/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million \"karma\" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.\n\nThe conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence: \n\n* Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username\n* maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged\n* maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday. \n* Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020. \n\nHowever, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill [after Maxwell's arrest](https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3zbaj/incoherent-conspiracy-suggests-ghislaine-maxwell-is-a-powerful-redditor).", "resolution_criteria": "This theory will be considered confirmed if it is stated by Ghislaine Maxwell or her representatives, or reported by police, prosecutors or reliable witnesses that Maxwell either is maxwellhill specifically or that she was an active and influential Reddit user (or words to that effect). \n\nThere could also be an accumulation of evidence over time. If respectable news organisations like the New York Times, Washington Post, Guardian or Sydney Morning Herald report that Maxwell is or is likely to be maxwellhill, that will also suffice", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7082, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763483346.498898, "end_time": 1765120915.836929, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763483346.498898, "end_time": 1765120915.836929, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.034925319424268735 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.110604446288056, 1.6990990452294867, 0.6098846417211545, 0.8165389917759325, 2.031037076070177, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.132179014431486, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287567.651313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287567.651313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9803691334001075, 0.019630866599892514 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 592, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account [maxwellhill](https://www.reddit.com/user/maxwellhill) belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls. \n\nu/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million \"karma\" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.\n\nThe conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence: \n\n* Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username\n* maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged\n* maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday. \n* Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020. \n\nHowever, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill [after Maxwell's arrest](https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3zbaj/incoherent-conspiracy-suggests-ghislaine-maxwell-is-a-powerful-redditor)." }, { "id": 7073, "title": "Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?", "short_title": "GB rowing at Olympics", "url_title": "GB rowing at Olympics", "slug": "gb-rowing-at-olympics", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-19T18:35:02.957359Z", "published_at": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.220543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-07-17T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-17T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-30T13:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-30T13:40:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7073, "title": "Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?", "created_at": "2021-04-19T18:35:02.957359Z", "open_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-13T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-13T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-30T13:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-30T13:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-30T13:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-17T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-17T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Along with cycling, British Rowing has been one of Team GB's most successful sports at the Olympics. The men's sweep[1] team have won gold at every Olympics since 1984, including GB's [only gold in 1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain_at_the_1996_Summer_Olympics) and winning the [coxless four at every Olympics since 2000](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Olympic_medalists_in_rowing_(men)#Coxless_four). \n\nHowever, there are reasons to doubt their success will continue into 2021.\n\n1. [Jürgen Gröbler](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C3%BCrgen_Gr%C3%B6bler) the main coach retired in August 2020. He has been in integral part of British Rowing's set up for nearly 30 years\n\n2. The GB men's sweep squad has been much less successful at the World Championships over the last Olympic cycle. winning [no gold medals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_World_Rowing_Championships) and only winning 5 bronze medals in that period.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves positive if Great Britain win a gold medal in the 2-, 4- or 8+ at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. Resolves negatively if they do not and all three events take place in 2021. Otherwise resolves ambiguously.\n\n[1] Sweep rowing is a subset of rowing where the athletes each row with one oar. (As opposed to sculling, where each athlete carries two oars)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7073, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1626502096.148176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1626502096.148176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.4924202398780335 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.9970872617702586, 1.111230303288092, 0.8218869508967813, 1.976604499359072, 0.9074353916842878, 0.6095647237853802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.3295834077306168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.933680219478928, "coverage": 0.9950825056092752, "baseline_score": -11.786230478155952, "spot_peer_score": 23.901790047149973, "peer_archived_score": 4.933680219478928, "baseline_archived_score": -11.786230478155952, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.901790047149973 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1626509067.587678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1626509067.587678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.512245954642574, 0.48775404535742595 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Along with cycling, British Rowing has been one of Team GB's most successful sports at the Olympics. The men's sweep[1] team have won gold at every Olympics since 1984, including GB's [only gold in 1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain_at_the_1996_Summer_Olympics) and winning the [coxless four at every Olympics since 2000](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Olympic_medalists_in_rowing_(men)#Coxless_four). \n\nHowever, there are reasons to doubt their success will continue into 2021.\n\n1. [Jürgen Gröbler](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C3%BCrgen_Gr%C3%B6bler) the main coach retired in August 2020. He has been in integral part of British Rowing's set up for nearly 30 years\n\n2. The GB men's sweep squad has been much less successful at the World Championships over the last Olympic cycle. winning [no gold medals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_World_Rowing_Championships) and only winning 5 bronze medals in that period." }, { "id": 7072, "title": "Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030?", "short_title": "Breakaway Soccer League by 2030", "url_title": "Breakaway Soccer League by 2030", "slug": "breakaway-soccer-league-by-2030", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-19T18:09:21.213362Z", "published_at": "2021-04-26T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T06:45:11.420324Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-26T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": 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"binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On April 18, 2021, 12 top European football clubs agreed to join the [European Super League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Super_League), a breakaway league separate from the usual organizational structure of association football. \n\nIt received a great deal of backlash from stakeholders:\n\n* [Gary Neville is disgusted](https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1383927715607154691)\n* [Gary Linekar is disgusted](https://www.bbc.com/sport/av/football/56807114)\n* [Boris Johnson promises \"to make sure the goverment does everything it can to make sure it doesn't go ahead\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-european-super-league-b1833689.html)\n\nOn the other hand, publicly traded football clubs ([Manchester United](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MANU/chart?p=MANU), [Juventus](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/JUVE.MI/chart?p=JUVE.MI)) have seen their share prices soar as this is generally forecasted as being extremely lucrative for the clubs involved.\n\nWhilst it appears that the ESL is dead in the water, the clubs involved have all pulled back, there is still a lot of speculation as to whether a breakaway league will still happen given the financial incentives.\n\n***Will there be an breakaway European soccer League match before 2030?***\n\nAny association football matches played under the structure of a breakaway group unrelated to the usual structure of football in Europe, which features at least 5 of the following big clubs, and teams from at least 3 UEFA countries (not all countries need to be from this list, 5 teams from this list from 2 countries and an additional team from a 3rd country would be acceptable):\n\n* Arsenal FC\n* Chelsea FC\n* Liverpool FC\n* Manchester City FC\n* Manchester United FC\n* Tottenham Hotspur FC\n* Inter Milan\n* Juventus FC\n* AC Milan\n* Atlético Madrid\n* FC Barcelona\n* Real Madrid CF\n* Bayern Munich\n* Borussia Dortmund\n* Bayer Leverkusen\n* Schalke 04\n* PSG\n* Lyon\n* Ajax", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7072, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763307768.918365, "end_time": 1763831933.076709, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763307768.918365, 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"", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/science/ufo-report-june-2021),\n\n> In December 2020, the government enacted the Intelligence Authorization Act, which called for the release of an unclassified and all-sources report on unidentified aerial phenomenon (UAP) — the official military term used for unidentified flying objects. The act was included in the mammoth appropriations bill that also included financial aid checks for people living with the economic fallout from Covid-19.\n\n> The report will include a thorough analysis of\n\n> * Available data\n> * Intelligence reporting on UAPs\n\n> It will be presented to the congressional intelligence and armed services committees on UAPs.\n\n> [...] The Pentagon report is set to be released on June 1.", "resolution_criteria": "The Pentagon report on UAPs is said to \"dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations\" if the report states in some concluding section, or executive summary, that it finds either of the following explanations \"unlikely\", \"improbable\", \"untenable\", or some other synonym of those words,\n\n* That the best explanation for UAP videos and other media is that the technologies in question were at least partly created or deployed in secret by some society or body of people, including an organization of some government.\n\n* That the best explanation for UAP videos and other media is that the technologies in question come at least partly from some source other than human civilization.\n\nThis question also resolves positively if the report concludes that non-secretive explanations, such as optical illusions, are supported in all cases examined.", "fine_print": "A determination will be made with admin discretion. 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"resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. The CEO and co-founder of Eat Just, Josh Tetrick, says he plans to expand from the company's one restaurant, to five, and eventually to ten. He hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\"\n\nIn the United States, cultivated meat is currently co-regulated by the Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The [regulatory framework](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian), established in 2019, provides a path to market for cultivated meat products. However, so far, no cultivated meat products have been approved under this framework.\n\n***Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US before 2023?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if any cultivated meat product is first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States by 2023-01-01. Positive resolution is consistent with there being labelling and other restrictions on its sale. However, the product must be available for sale to the general public. This question resolves on the basis of credible media reports.\n\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7065, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650643479.282557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650643479.282557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.36591732013753303 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13347615847670113, 0.0, 0.24939037180496645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1377752415542113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6213782665940669, 1.51343106871838, 0.4999366231785076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12498186790410454, 0.0005760640316816688, 0.4474251803476199, 0.35518884365430864, 0.0, 0.009137579853633773, 0.0, 0.3082852828967935, 1.4723079228135791, 0.0, 0.5273058297294496, 0.9387714937745724, 0.5564876568963035, 0.7928598550370693, 0.2622046244236163, 0.007163428713059488, 1.1054837498894852, 1.740813324716159, 1.0755356513370589, 0.362179488051809, 0.5571470135729721, 0.0, 0.8082798702143996, 0.034361985631411136, 0.35661681678363427, 0.8366178493101311, 0.0, 0.32781630009052365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41933686664598646, 0.0, 0.12120342336155536, 0.029277214961043362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010456046504160123, 0.5884823613661859, 0.019239360577882482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010303940505583378, 0.4461208955148534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06751809014695846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02022000279037369 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.458673315078233, "coverage": 0.9996960780387698, "baseline_score": 26.629926209547452, "spot_peer_score": -20.537490827079118, "peer_archived_score": 16.458673315078233, "baseline_archived_score": 26.629926209547452, "spot_peer_archived_score": -20.537490827079118 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650643479.312494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650643479.312494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8115093606458725, 0.1884906393541275 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 273, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
