Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4900
{ "count": 6394, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4920", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4880", "results": [ { "id": 7063, "title": "Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?", "short_title": "3-year Livestock Subsidies Fall by 2030", "url_title": "3-year Livestock Subsidies Fall by 2030", "slug": "3-year-livestock-subsidies-fall-by-2030", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-04-18T23:21:28.944684Z", "published_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.562607Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-06-01T23:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 926, "type": "tournament", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament", "slug": "alt-protein-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Alt-Meat_Banner_1_9gRW56Q.png", "prize_pool": "1262.50", "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.120263Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2975, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2975, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7063, "title": "Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-04-18T23:21:28.944684Z", "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-06-01T23:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:20:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\nUS farmers received roughly $10B in subisides in 2020, according data from [EWG's Farm Subsidy Database](https://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=00000&progcode=total&yr=2020). A majority of this is spent on commodity subsidies, which subsidise the production of crops such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. \n\nAs many subsidized crops are inputs to intensive animal farming, these often serve as implicit subsidies to the industry ([Starmer, 2006](https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37162/)) In addition, livestock production is commonly directly subsidized. In 2020, livestock producers received direct subsidies amounting to roughly $330M, according to [EWG data](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock). Subsidies for incumbent intensive animal protein production inhibit the rate at which such approaches can be substituted by cleaner alternative proteins [(Jiang et al., 2020)](https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/9/9/1227)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the three-year simple moving average of the total livestock subsidies through all subsidy programs, as reported in [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) falls below $150M/year before January 1, 2030. The [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) database will be checked on June 1, 2031 to account for lags in reporting or revising the data. The three-year simple moving average in any year calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of the subsidy totals in that year and the previous two years.\n\nYearly totals for previous years are as follows:\n\n- 2015 $1,320,274,264\n- 2016 $449,041,696\n- 2017 $447,720,097\n- 2018 $677,555,047\n- 2019 $673,865,626\n- 2020 $326,246,32", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7063, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762276004.691454, "end_time": 1766985211.528612, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762276004.691454, "end_time": 1766985211.528612, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.3000799521472027 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7633016222733049, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.47078787023876, 0.914878455973493, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 2.198456213713353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289362.741321, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289362.741321, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9326476525369208, 0.06735234746307915 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 134, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\nUS farmers received roughly $10B in subisides in 2020, according data from [EWG's Farm Subsidy Database](https://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=00000&progcode=total&yr=2020). A majority of this is spent on commodity subsidies, which subsidise the production of crops such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. \n\nAs many subsidized crops are inputs to intensive animal farming, these often serve as implicit subsidies to the industry ([Starmer, 2006](https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37162/)) In addition, livestock production is commonly directly subsidized. In 2020, livestock producers received direct subsidies amounting to roughly $330M, according to [EWG data](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock). Subsidies for incumbent intensive animal protein production inhibit the rate at which such approaches can be substituted by cleaner alternative proteins [(Jiang et al., 2020)](https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/9/9/1227)" }, { "id": 7058, "title": "Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?", "short_title": "Alt-protein hit-piece by 2023?", "url_title": "Alt-protein hit-piece by 2023?", "slug": "alt-protein-hit-piece-by-2023", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-04-18T23:08:36.629287Z", "published_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.374387Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-22T23:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-22T23:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:54:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 926, "type": "tournament", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament", "slug": "alt-protein-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Alt-Meat_Banner_1_9gRW56Q.png", "prize_pool": "1262.50", "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.120263Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2975, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2975, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7058, "title": "Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?", "created_at": "2021-04-18T23:08:36.629287Z", "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T19:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-22T23:08:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-22T23:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October of 2019, The Center for Consumer Freedom (CFF) ran an advertisement in the New York Times titled; [“What’s hiding in your plant-based meat?”](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/burger-wars-heat-up-as-plantbased-meat-faces-backlash-205654350.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMoxVc4s4-uxH6_b34StT5kZ30SbqiviKfid0q8SOjj50JMCIfZox7VndqhGycRoO5WScHM4KBOuo5tmegO7vcpVDyd6D9LIUUaEQPoXhZMHAPVFYaKK2auMUbWGfeVkWR6pw9PgxfEO7VZPKlO1OWEIb7KUDvJY34lV7sFIQdEd). In another piece, the organisation claimed that “Fake meats are ultra-processed imitations with dozens of ingredients.” Meat and milk producers have become increasingly defensive over their turf, as alt-protein alternative have taken ahold of a growing market share. The incumbents seem to be turning to [lobbyists](https://thebeet.com/the-meat-wars-heat-up-lobbyists-launch-campaign-against-plant-based-alternatives/) and [marketing firms](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-and-milk-groups-seek-to-defend-supermarket-turf-11570465758?mod=article_inline) to strike back.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if one or more animal protein companies, or any groups representing these, take out a full-page advertisement in either the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the Washington Post before 2022-12-31 (inclusive). The advertisement must criticise or disparage plant-based or cultivated meat products, companies or technologies. This might take the form of substantive criticism, negative depictions or disparaging insinuations.\n\nPositive resolution does not require the entire ad to be a critique or disparagement of plant-based, or cultivated meat, but that a substantial portion of it is (at least 25% of the text in the body or 25% of the depictions by surface area).\n\nThe relevant advertisement must be taken out by traditional animal protein companies that operate in some stage of the animal-protein supply chain or any groups representing these (such as industry associations, trade or lobbying groups, and marketing agencies). In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admin, with the input relevant resolution council members, may freely decide the question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7058, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650666492.88029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650666492.88029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.4979103403208164 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11917266062120754, 0.05716789377127238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2076148985543172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699770170287534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8460382388409197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037302369458043724, 0.0, 0.7134897192591153, 0.0, 0.002758391723504557, 0.0, 0.004297018526623552, 1.5339576440022977, 0.5021859182392427, 0.9281576228849507, 0.6356800736251341, 0.0, 0.1466725630067592, 0.06018168915842613, 0.0, 0.3704164410767862, 0.0, 0.16782183145864898, 0.0, 0.47295204745398656, 0.0, 2.9199494742555134, 2.3680446638304553, 0.7458281043644825, 0.8989065174966309, 0.0, 0.08082894983551656, 0.23775669253553783, 0.6283281763925077, 0.0, 0.0369484380643337, 0.5654667606195058, 0.15105222719330652, 0.0056145053338992595, 0.047601052594395774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47386096392499477, 0.014128607803813408, 0.2530319812175794, 0.0019754520645241095, 0.03390260049734535, 0.02163683073457788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029007001383113466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04331287452455614, 0.009127292350256002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0049235387378217576, 0.0, 0.0013523717240138745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006599580203028017 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650666492.897463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650666492.897463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5849125270447819, 0.4150874729552181 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 216, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October of 2019, The Center for Consumer Freedom (CFF) ran an advertisement in the New York Times titled; [“What’s hiding in your plant-based meat?”](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/burger-wars-heat-up-as-plantbased-meat-faces-backlash-205654350.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMoxVc4s4-uxH6_b34StT5kZ30SbqiviKfid0q8SOjj50JMCIfZox7VndqhGycRoO5WScHM4KBOuo5tmegO7vcpVDyd6D9LIUUaEQPoXhZMHAPVFYaKK2auMUbWGfeVkWR6pw9PgxfEO7VZPKlO1OWEIb7KUDvJY34lV7sFIQdEd). In another piece, the organisation claimed that “Fake meats are ultra-processed imitations with dozens of ingredients.” Meat and milk producers have become increasingly defensive over their turf, as alt-protein alternative have taken ahold of a growing market share. The incumbents seem to be turning to [lobbyists](https://thebeet.com/the-meat-wars-heat-up-lobbyists-launch-campaign-against-plant-based-alternatives/) and [marketing firms](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-and-milk-groups-seek-to-defend-supermarket-turf-11570465758?mod=article_inline) to strike back." }, { "id": 7057, "title": "Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?", "short_title": "Plant-Based Meat Passes \"Turing Test\" by 2023", "url_title": "Plant-Based Meat Passes \"Turing Test\" by 2023", "slug": "plant-based-meat-passes-turing-test-by-2023", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-04-18T23:06:34.212523Z", "published_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.493725Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", 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"2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7057, "title": "Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?", "created_at": "2021-04-18T23:06:34.212523Z", "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-10T18:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-10T18:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-10T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-10-31T23:05:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-10-31T23:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Turing test (originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing's [1950 paper](https://phil415.pbworks.com/f/TuringComputing.pdf)) is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. The evaluator would be aware that one of the two partners in conversation is a machine, and all participants would be separated from one another. If the evaluator cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test.\n\nBy a rough analogy, then, we might say that a product passes a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat if an evaluator cannot reliably tell the difference between plant-based meat and actual meat products.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2023, a double-blinded randomised controlled trial reveals that human evaluators are not able to distinguish actual and plant-based meat products. The test must involve at least 50 subjects in both the control group (who receive actual meat products) and at least one of the treatment group (who receive plant-based meat products).\n\nTo qualify for positive resolution, the result must be statistically significant. In particular:\n\n- If the null hypothesis is that there is a difference between the relevant products, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis must be rejected at at least a 5% sign. level\n- In case the null hypothesis is that there is no difference in the subject's guesses about the contents of the product, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at a 10% significance level.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if no test that satisfies the above description is conducted by April 1, 2023\n\nWe define plant based meat as products made from plant and non-animal products that resemble meat in texture, flavor, and appearance. Plant and non-animal ingredients can include anything as long as they are not sourced from an animal of any kind. \n\n*ETA (2021-04-28): The product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) must contains at least 20% plant-based meat by weight, and the total weight must be no less than 50 grams", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7057, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667251134.050945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667251134.050945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5435061428034423 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.20343813287092663, 0.0, 0.04123243614960867, 2.776167504639507e-05, 0.0, 0.03710732352323906, 0.010646018681044079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3160590141472071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00942976377228247, 0.0, 5.0200029851686126e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013586351453378118, 0.0, 0.16215381048977845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30133167105132375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09675881343134535, 0.0, 1.9096171984124546, 0.18589727474161857, 0.02694125228332741, 0.0, 0.47277832292511324, 0.022707617347294932, 0.5122055419071564, 0.024935644438089564, 0.7445393221957254, 0.04344502146003454, 0.09547323704977027, 0.0, 7.00960298401018e-05, 0.004610343867954063, 0.5312285202908713, 0.30481577200594284, 0.0011006633029178813, 0.24311673443421447, 0.001139407864243931, 0.9372069945882084, 3.1228404749047565, 0.685504849846694, 0.0, 0.12862632169315544, 0.4519682991274068, 1.5431758147390047, 0.5448626895874711, 1.3983510318170271, 0.3298979143827502, 0.2539516014882057, 0.5209918705914701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10150821452976701, 1.2454831053183848, 0.8720083386098547, 0.02801543019782946, 0.0, 0.0010108434814449982, 1.6775090691264154, 0.0, 0.03684864219471597, 0.8204043297279859, 0.6709275940091194, 0.07624274296472865, 0.3755887700261619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12498389243260263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3750927550161582, 0.08741007290309806, 0.008844830973775907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026850026200610826, 0.0020902250548508654, 0.7685938506803501, 0.0, 0.4258875331239656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667251134.076409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667251134.076409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5751405364470725, 0.4248594635529275 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 319, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Turing test (originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing's [1950 paper](https://phil415.pbworks.com/f/TuringComputing.pdf)) is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. The evaluator would be aware that one of the two partners in conversation is a machine, and all participants would be separated from one another. If the evaluator cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test.\n\nBy a rough analogy, then, we might say that a product passes a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat if an evaluator cannot reliably tell the difference between plant-based meat and actual meat products." }, { "id": 7056, "title": "Will McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu before 2027?", "short_title": "McDonald's First to Offer Cultivated Meat", "url_title": "McDonald's First to Offer Cultivated Meat", "slug": "mcdonalds-first-to-offer-cultivated-meat", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-04-18T23:04:12.863933Z", "published_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T23:35:44.773853Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", 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"2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2975, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7056, "title": "Will McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu before 2027?", "created_at": "2021-04-18T23:04:12.863933Z", "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:03:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:03:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if McDonald's is the first global Quick Service Restaurant to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu in any location before January 1, 2027. This question will resolve as **No** if no QSR offers cultivated meat by January 1, 2027, or another QSR offers cultivated meat before McDonald's.\n\nFor this question, \"global Quick Service Restaurants\" include:\n\n>McDonald's, Subway, KFC, Pizza Hut, Burger King, Domino’s, Hunt Brothers Pizza, Taco Bell, Wendy's, and Hardee's. \n\nA restaurant is said to feature a cultivated meat product on its menu, if, in at least one location anywhere in the world that is open to the public, any member of the public is able to order the product, without requiring a reservation. \n\nThe product must be for sale, and free samples do not count. \"Pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) will not count toward resolution.\n\nAny product and any meat may count for positive resolution (nuggets, patties, hotdogs, and so forth). The relevant meat substitute must contain at least 25% cultivated meat by weight", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7056, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763680037.489587, "end_time": 1763797211.829821, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763680037.489587, "end_time": 1763797211.829821, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.08842629533074522 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.303753350880283, 1.2901846883989472, 0.0, 0.20042950017961592, 1.967863640311684, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5824593834294607, 0.4741317757842507, 2.8329245152989815, 0.0, 0.006813082111662306, 0.2509376076530742, 0.0, 0.2751246787101122, 0.06715466644256887, 0.16193689729934868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7482803903687405, 0.0, 0.023344988892241045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12948046043583153 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288564.788707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288564.788707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9823256305062046, 0.017674369493795368 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 207, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food." }, { "id": 7054, "title": "Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?", "short_title": "Top 10 Meat Producer Bankruptcy by 2028", "url_title": "Top 10 Meat Producer Bankruptcy by 2028", "slug": "top-10-meat-producer-bankruptcy-by-2028", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-04-18T22:59:13.278249Z", "published_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T08:00:49.803727Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T23:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { 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([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2975, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2975, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7054, "title": "Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?", "created_at": "2021-04-18T22:59:13.278249Z", "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T23:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\nAccording to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by January 1, 2028, according to credible financial media reports.\n\n- This question will resolve positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n\n- Positive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n\n- If any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question will resolve positively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7054, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760342438.996412, "end_time": 1763834120.403978, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.214 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760342438.996412, "end_time": 1763834120.403978, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.214 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.786, 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.21036666166215545 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.18575801079970408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.318946950661128, 0.0, 0.08861704666596604, 0.0, 0.8614998454466418, 0.12208226856886291, 0.23097061620312218, 0.010606778452136844, 0.0, 0.8588486312570891, 1.1454675976745556, 0.0, 0.2364169029000038, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0416442859182529, 1.4944026102239243, 1.4589390183270021, 0.7450235388730315, 0.0, 0.2849555187971061, 0.09811106500705603, 0.0, 1.1848113226025847, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.16824568062905945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013130201551318676, 0.22518626811013776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07000249760431822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01917969985736262, 0.2047065967472563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289318.037461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289318.037461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9117778974460291, 0.08822210255397092 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 175, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\nAccording to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)" }, { "id": 7053, "title": "Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?", "short_title": "Brazil to lead in soybean production in 2022?", "url_title": "Brazil to lead in soybean production in 2022?", "slug": "brazil-to-lead-in-soybean-production-in-2022", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-04-18T22:57:17.965100Z", "published_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.002718Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-22T22:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-22T22:56:00Z", 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"header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2975, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7053, "title": "Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?", "created_at": "2021-04-18T22:57:17.965100Z", "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T15:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T15:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-23T15:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-22T22:56:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-22T22:56:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Used for thousands of years as an alternative protein source, soy is one of the [most common plant based protein sources](https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahrosenbaum/2019/09/20/big-meat-and-the-switch-to-soy/?sh=28785b437417) used in alternative dairy and meat products today. Used in popular foods like tofu, soy milk, and plant based meat like the Impossible burger, it is praised for its ability to take on a variety of textures and flavors.\n\nAccording to a [research paper](https://www.aafp.org/afp/2009/0101/p43.html) by the American Family Physician Journal:\n\n>”Soybeans contain all of the essential amino acids necessary for human nutrition and have been grown and harvested for thousands of years. Populations with diets high in soy protein and low in animal protein have lower risks of prostate and breast cancers than other populations. Increasing dietary whole soy protein lowers levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoproteins, and triglycerides; may improve menopausal hot flashes; and may help maintain bone density and decrease fractures in postmenopausal women. Overall, soy is well tolerated, and because it is a complete source of protein shown to lower cholesterol, it is recommended as a dietary substitution for higher-fat animal products.”\n\nThe [current top producer for soy](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC), in terms of production quantity, is Brazil, who produced over 114 million tonnes of soybeans in 2019, according the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The next largest producer was the US at 96M followed by Argentina at 55M.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if [FAOSTAT data](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC) indicates that Brazil produces the largest quantity of soybeans worldwide, by weight, in the year 2022.\n\nIf the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ceases the report the relevant data, other credible global agriculture data sources may be considered", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7053, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650665026.619727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650665026.619727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.716680146994697 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24877094235518352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9433465922480667, 0.0, 0.022225972450640584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.174353459002126, 0.0, 0.09901219731963311, 0.5157805762333514, 0.06813627848605193, 0.016079834428119808, 0.3090911400396787, 0.0, 0.06763948964803877, 1.0831453519314727, 2.3367859134780247, 0.0, 0.027260261306647233, 0.873925550317217, 0.0, 1.6189986435707522, 0.9581196464930536, 0.8313526507692592, 0.34687770711488464, 1.4080036315283881, 0.005868104256488185, 0.0, 0.006759718771926677, 0.917187270398073, 0.5103008116339354, 0.6227775807537628, 0.036486146261818564, 0.0, 0.4437803224978658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7231820398860129, 0.32660281038909744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10251256047355009, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0653597080023612 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -2.1125319558285143, "coverage": 0.9997682082451359, "baseline_score": 45.654169948623164, "spot_peer_score": 1.133888866537518, "peer_archived_score": -2.1125319558285143, "baseline_archived_score": 45.654169948623164, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.133888866537518 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650665026.636589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650665026.636589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3648378030060112, 0.6351621969939888 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 160, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Used for thousands of years as an alternative protein source, soy is one of the [most common plant based protein sources](https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahrosenbaum/2019/09/20/big-meat-and-the-switch-to-soy/?sh=28785b437417) used in alternative dairy and meat products today. Used in popular foods like tofu, soy milk, and plant based meat like the Impossible burger, it is praised for its ability to take on a variety of textures and flavors.\n\nAccording to a [research paper](https://www.aafp.org/afp/2009/0101/p43.html) by the American Family Physician Journal:\n\n>”Soybeans contain all of the essential amino acids necessary for human nutrition and have been grown and harvested for thousands of years. Populations with diets high in soy protein and low in animal protein have lower risks of prostate and breast cancers than other populations. Increasing dietary whole soy protein lowers levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoproteins, and triglycerides; may improve menopausal hot flashes; and may help maintain bone density and decrease fractures in postmenopausal women. Overall, soy is well tolerated, and because it is a complete source of protein shown to lower cholesterol, it is recommended as a dietary substitution for higher-fat animal products.”\n\nThe [current top producer for soy](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC), in terms of production quantity, is Brazil, who produced over 114 million tonnes of soybeans in 2019, according the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The next largest producer was the US at 96M followed by Argentina at 55M." }, { "id": 7052, "title": "Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?", "short_title": "Global meat producers to go bankrupt by 2023?", "url_title": "Global meat producers to go bankrupt by 2023?", "slug": "global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2023", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-04-18T22:55:16.812772Z", "published_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.995449Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-22T22:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-22T22:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": 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"html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2975, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7052, "title": "Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?", "created_at": "2021-04-18T22:55:16.812772Z", "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-22T22:54:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-22T22:54:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by 2023-01-01, according to credible financial media reports.\n\n- This question resolves positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n\n- Positive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n\n- If any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7052, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650666620.100296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650666620.100296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.05317069654770395 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.6091834724220506, 0.5347660878258669, 3.0726634737839302, 1.7655183054100505, 2.0737503322275463, 0.11631925052728198, 1.0733793232026225, 0.14115056931138625, 0.00764267295316474, 0.19694444748298362, 0.2810745489647145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6326680595244999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7487208575240354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.366726560326521, "coverage": 0.9997754179365781, "baseline_score": 92.00624094574377, "spot_peer_score": 4.503070822457521, "peer_archived_score": 3.366726560326521, "baseline_archived_score": 92.00624094574377, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.503070822457521 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650666620.116173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650666620.116173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 131, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)" }, { "id": 7041, "title": "Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized before 2030?", "short_title": "Soy De-Allergenized Before 2030?", "url_title": "Soy De-Allergenized Before 2030?", "slug": "soy-de-allergenized-before-2030", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-04-18T21:40:28.640688Z", "published_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T14:18:11.170826Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": 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"default_project": { "id": 2975, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7041, "title": "Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-04-18T21:40:28.640688Z", "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:39:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:39:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\nSoy remains one of the most popular plant based alternatives because it contains [high levels of protein](https://wpcmed.com/soy-a-healthy-protein-alternative/), and like animal proteins, is a complete protein, meaning it contains all the essential amino acids needed for the human body. Soy based products like tofu and soy milk also contain less saturated fat than their meat and dairy counterparts, making it an ideal substitute for traditional animal products. \n\nSoy became [popular as an alternative protein source](https://www.foodprocessing.com/articles/2020/alternative-proteins-the-problems-and-the-promise/) by Atkins in the mid 20th century as the main ingredient in TVP (texturized vegetable protein).\n\n> “The original textured vegetable protein or TVP, which we helped to formulate and is a trademark of ADM, was invented by William T. Atkinson in the 1950s and 1960s,” says Schuh. Atkinson developed a process to “texturize” soy flour into a meat-like substance using an extruder with mechanical shear and heat, combined with the injection of water. “The original TVP was a fibrous, spongy material used as a stand-alone meat alternative product, as well a nutritional extender in meat and poultry products to reduce costs and increase protein content.”\n\nWhile soy is still one of the [most common alternative protein sources](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/alternative-proteins-the-race-for-market-share-is-on) for plant based meat, like the Impossible Burger, its presence as one of the ‘big eight’ allergens make it difficult for some consumers to purchase and eat these products, leading to a rise in popularity for pea protein alternatives.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a peer-reviewed publication demonstrates that a process successfully produces de-allergenized soybeans (for any variety or type of soybean). The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption). This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be published before January 1, 2030.\n\nThe relevant process must eliminate a sufficient portion of allergens so as to successfully prevent the immune response to at least one of the proteins: [Gly m Bd 60K, Gly m Bd 30K and Gly m Bd 28K](https://reeis.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/0212493-development-of-hypoallergenic-fermented-soybean-products.html). \n\nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). Metaculus Admins will decide, at their discretion, whether the reduction in allergens is sufficiently convincing", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7041, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763706047.097893, "end_time": 1763958795.132261, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.332 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763706047.097893, "end_time": 1763958795.132261, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.332 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2881088930184131 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2185684043158353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37666641231333553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31473508132901346, 1.2825658339501707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05548779491047209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06327492015001017, 0.022263149504593318, 0.0, 0.9748898270177928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19529391852860173, 0.0, 2.8955702127893277, 0.0, 0.4482977324842707, 0.2640466795099568, 0.0, 0.14329729498878083, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 1.9008531823271064, 0.0, 0.03466373496095091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015241095655114558, 0.0, 0.8585512680100754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.194437590737305, 0.048426974058352196, 0.0, 0.4111953249574266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12864818019422197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6129439364572602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009723111673611546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28705404421628866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288529.864743, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288529.864743, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6838479829918254, 0.3161520170081746 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 237, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\nSoy remains one of the most popular plant based alternatives because it contains [high levels of protein](https://wpcmed.com/soy-a-healthy-protein-alternative/), and like animal proteins, is a complete protein, meaning it contains all the essential amino acids needed for the human body. Soy based products like tofu and soy milk also contain less saturated fat than their meat and dairy counterparts, making it an ideal substitute for traditional animal products. \n\nSoy became [popular as an alternative protein source](https://www.foodprocessing.com/articles/2020/alternative-proteins-the-problems-and-the-promise/) by Atkins in the mid 20th century as the main ingredient in TVP (texturized vegetable protein).\n\n> “The original textured vegetable protein or TVP, which we helped to formulate and is a trademark of ADM, was invented by William T. Atkinson in the 1950s and 1960s,” says Schuh. Atkinson developed a process to “texturize” soy flour into a meat-like substance using an extruder with mechanical shear and heat, combined with the injection of water. “The original TVP was a fibrous, spongy material used as a stand-alone meat alternative product, as well a nutritional extender in meat and poultry products to reduce costs and increase protein content.”\n\nWhile soy is still one of the [most common alternative protein sources](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/alternative-proteins-the-race-for-market-share-is-on) for plant based meat, like the Impossible Burger, its presence as one of the ‘big eight’ allergens make it difficult for some consumers to purchase and eat these products, leading to a rise in popularity for pea protein alternatives." }, { "id": 7040, "title": "Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?", "short_title": "Wheat De-Allergenized by 2030", "url_title": "Wheat De-Allergenized by 2030", "slug": "wheat-de-allergenized-by-2030", "author_id": 114881, "author_username": "Metaculus-Partners", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" } ], "created_at": "2021-04-18T21:35:57.219451Z", "published_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:08.531179Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 926, "type": "tournament", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament", "slug": "alt-protein-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Alt-Meat_Banner_1_9gRW56Q.png", "prize_pool": "1262.50", "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.120263Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2975, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2975, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T00:23:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.184245Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.032746Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7040, "title": "Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-04-18T21:35:57.219451Z", "open_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:34:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:34:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\n[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. \n\nHowever, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.\n\nScientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant’s DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.\n\nHortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),\n\n> “Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology,\" Dodo says. \"In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a peer-reviewed publication or consumer product demonstrates a process that successfully produces de-allergenized wheat (for any vareity or type of wheat). The wheat that is produced must have < 10% of typical wheat content of one these allergens: albumin, globulin, gliadin or gluten, and show a statistically significant reduced or prevented immunological response. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption). This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be published before January 1, 2030.\n\nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). Metaculus Admins will decide, at their discretion, whether the reduction in allergens is sufficiently convincing", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7040, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763638152.485496, "end_time": 1763958105.372107, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763638152.485496, "end_time": 1763958105.372107, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40907020625790597 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14666562708809194, 0.0, 0.35109847196302063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.02339098950500834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.790202543720318, 0.027172461172235558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4472067481442248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6047751043366363, 0.2978686829232104, 0.10957976461626417, 0.05138228252970245, 0.4817346416537838, 0.0, 0.02358838295555427, 2.2563205731523377, 0.0, 1.5813681692476527, 1.3470901529438288, 0.561101776449919, 0.14620266981989588, 0.19333358002911022, 0.0, 0.050718366054993386, 0.32356993027434205, 0.30588228220991015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44575833950054045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09905073698188505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03550367010089748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7317124075352184, 0.41207610303291553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07218472244402722 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289929.218208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289929.218208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.846428956571035, 0.15357104342896494 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 262, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\n[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. \n\nHowever, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.\n\nScientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant’s DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.\n\nHortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),\n\n> “Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology,\" Dodo says. \"In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S.\"" }, { "id": 7037, "title": "Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045?", "short_title": "Korean reunification by 2045", "url_title": "Korean reunification by 2045", "slug": "korean-reunification-by-2045", "author_id": 104694, "author_username": "metani", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-18T20:36:03.873730Z", "published_at": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T21:05:01.486581Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2037-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 117, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7037, "title": "Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045?", "created_at": "2021-04-18T20:36:03.873730Z", "open_time": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-06-06T13:03:20.841604Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-06-06T13:03:20.841604Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2037-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2037-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "All of Korea had been unified as a single state for centuries. After World War II and beginning in the Cold War, Korea was divided into two countries along the 38th parallel (now the Korean Demilitarized Zone). In 1950, North Korea invaded the South, beginning the Korean War, which ended in stalemate in 1953. \n\nEven after the end of the Korean War, [reunification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_reunification) proved a challenge as the two countries became increasingly diverged at a steady pace. However, in the late 2010s, relations between North and South Korea warmed somewhat, beginning with North Korea's participation at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. In 2019, South Korean president Moon Jae-in proposed reunification of the two divided states in the Korean peninsula by 2045.\n\n***Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045?***\n\nThe question resolves positively if either:\n\n+ North Korea and South Korea (or their respective descendants if they change name) merge.\n\nor\n\n+ North Korea, South Korea or both (or their respective descendants if they change name) stop existing, and an entity (possibly the one that's left) controls 90%+ of the current North Korea + South Korea landmass and has its capital on that territory.\n\nResolution will be by reputable source that either has happened, as judged by Metaculus mods/admins.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7037, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763134853.041088, "end_time": 1764421420.011731, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.125 ] } 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"possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "**Related question by @Fee, with many background facts**: [Troops in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/)\n\nIn the late 20th century, the United States (acting through Zia al-Haq of Pakistan) provided assistance to a group of Afghanis known then as *mujahedeen*, who were trying to evict a Soviet occupation force. [Some non-Afghanis gravitated to Afghanistan to help the mujahedeen. To coordinate these outsiders, a new organization was formed; its name was *Al Qaeda*. One of the outsiders, a Saudi engineer named Usama bin Laden (b. 1957), became the network's leader; he & al Qaeda were welcomed to establish a base of operations in Afghanistan after the Soviets left.](https://www.britannica.com/event/Afghanistan-War)\n\nOn September 11, 2001, in an event commonly referred to as 9/11, four terrorist cells totalling 19 men (most of them Saudi) executed a mission for which they had been trained by al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The mission caused significant loss of life in Arlington County, Virginia, NY County, New York, and [Somerset County, Pennsylvania](https://www.nps.gov/flni/learn/news/presskit.htm), as well as [large-scale property damage](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/14/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-way-forward-in-afghanistan/) in those locales. Soon after that, on [ October 7, 2001, the United States began overt military operations in Afghanistan](https://apnews.com/article/7011b5086a21f7f57c3cb218947742b2).\n\n[Those operations expanded to other Asian nations during a 19-year military presence](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56744265). On May 2, 2011, the U.S. Navy's \"Seal Team Six\" carried out a secret mission in Pakistan during which they killed Usama bin Laden.\n\n[U.S. forces remained in Afghanistan.](https://militarybases.com/overseas/afghanistan/). Following various [\"troop drawdowns\"](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56744265), the U.S. agreed to leave that country before the 10th anniversary of bin Laden's death; but [President Biden](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/14/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-way-forward-in-afghanistan/) decided that some troops [would remain there until the 20th anniversary of the al Qaeda attacks on civilians in the eastern U.S.](https://www.newsday.com/long-island/columnists/dan-janison/afghanistan-biden-trump-troops-1.50213807).\n\n[Such timetables are sometimes delayed by factors foreseeable & unforeseeable](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_U.S._troops_from_Iraq_(2007%E2%80%932011)). This question asks:\n\n***Will U.S. military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?***\n\nStatements issued by [civilian leaders of the U.S. military](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/), or by any member of [the Joint Chiefs of Staff](https://www.jcs.mil/Media/News/), will be deemed credible unless contradicted by very persuasive statements from any [source familiar with the territory](https://dppa.un.org/en/mission/unama).\n\nResolution of this question will not be affected by the presence in Afghanistan (at any time) of Red Cross, \"blue hats\", or any [Private military contractors](https://www.your-poc.com/what-are-civilian-contractors-and-what-do-they-perform-overseas/) or \"PMCs\". Similarly, troops guarding the US diplomatic presence and unreported special forces missions will not be counted.\n\n2021-10-7 refers to October 7, 2021.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7017, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628669377.816312, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628669377.816312, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.4150876738225304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3418512165790561, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20358675577850374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025334624450131557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0275524712565069, 0.9490716027736056, 0.0, 0.0011554840615711417, 0.01831917771148261, 0.0, 0.6180230852299246, 0.0028798828583328074, 0.0, 0.4585809504206354, 0.08627334283842372, 0.0, 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"Will mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?", "short_title": "Mixed doubles at all slams in 2040", "url_title": "Mixed doubles at all slams in 2040", "slug": "mixed-doubles-at-all-slams-in-2040", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-10T13:56:06.565791Z", "published_at": "2021-04-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T06:49:58.135697Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-04-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 7010, "title": "Will mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?", "created_at": "2021-04-10T13:56:06.565791Z", "open_time": "2021-04-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-17T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. As part of these competitions there are many different events (Men's and Women's Singles and Doubles, Mixed Doubles, Boys and Girls Singles and Doubles etc).\n\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will mixed doubles be part of all four Slams in 2040?\". The answer given was \"No\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve according to whether or not all four slam events hold a mixed doubles competition with elite players. we define a mixed doubles competition to be an elite competition if it includes:\n\n* at least 4 teams with men in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking)\n* at least 4 teams with women in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking)\n* at least 10 teams in total (ie more than straight quarterfinals, but byes in the first round are acceptable) \n\n\nIf the list of tournaments which are considered a slam changes, we will limit the list to the four which most resemble the historic 4.\n\nIn the event no slams take place in 2040, we will resolve based the nearest year with earlier taking preference, ie 2039, 2041, 2038, 2042, et", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7010, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763707787.849775, "end_time": 1769257990.995402, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.852 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763707787.849775, "end_time": 1769257990.995402, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.852 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7580382280875806 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9614718275016523, 0.0, 0.0, 1.206986644946858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7576333089753815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289921.614761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289921.614761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.25049509872806885, 0.7495049012719311 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. As part of these competitions there are many different events (Men's and Women's Singles and Doubles, Mixed Doubles, Boys and Girls Singles and Doubles etc).\n\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will mixed doubles be part of all four Slams in 2040?\". The answer given was \"No\"." }, { "id": 7003, "title": "Are Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment indicative that the Standard Model is wrong?", "short_title": "Muon Magnetics Indicative of New Physics", "url_title": "Muon Magnetics Indicative of New Physics", "slug": "muon-magnetics-indicative-of-new-physics", "author_id": 117488, "author_username": "antidemagogue", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-09T15:17:17.348011Z", "published_at": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.090160Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:03:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 7003, "title": "Are Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment indicative that the Standard Model is wrong?", "created_at": "2021-04-09T15:17:17.348011Z", "open_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-01T15:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 7, 2021 researchers at the [Muon g-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muon_g-2) experiment at Fermilab [published](https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.141801) results of their measurement of muon magnetic moment. The results differ by 4.2σ from theoretical calculations based on the Standard Model, leading to [speculation](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/long-awaited-muon-measurement-boosts-evidence-for-new-physics/) that it could be a signal of new physics.\n\nAt 4.2σ, the results fall short of the threshold for a discovery (5σ), but are still unlikely enough to generate excitement. However, previous studies with high sigmas have been overturned based on systematic biases or incorrect background calculations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **No** if by April 1, 2023, the concensus in the scientific literature is that the discrepancy in muon magnetic moment is <4σ compared to the Standard Model. Results could come in the form of new data, new background computations within the Standard Model, demonstration of systematic bias in the g-2 methodology, etc.\n\nThe question will resolve as **Yes** if the concensus is ≥4σ from the standard model predition. This would imply new particles, new interactions, or other new physics (although compelling theory explaining the magnetic moment is not required for a positive resolution).\n\nIf no consensus has emerged by April 1\n 2023, then the question will resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\n_edit 2021-05-01: rephrased resolution criteria, expanded on 'new physics'", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 7003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680297244.204098, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680297244.204098, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10437714760907789 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5252907274406704, 0.4881851562682592, 0.757750262606011, 0.1162145989976784, 1.4664214840926206, 1.9676929703611494, 0.0, 0.7047956385812821, 1.6846370325696665, 0.0, 0.6109045031913718, 0.7057676323246797, 0.4890846737037814, 0.0, 0.1278411749500892, 0.5684082291211365, 0.9885896846277116, 0.18422176936144166, 0.020560827046404485, 0.02368489080579067, 0.1688140035614813, 0.28203990864161294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07992549634122093, 0.35918636306610896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009203609350215285, 0.0, 0.006021606162473711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5542907841737343, 0.0, 0.26392754205071245, 0.0, 0.017682009993289477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003637646323940793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010888565211072518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017741576519297485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680297244.221023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680297244.221023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9723041629411951, 0.027695837058804806 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 7, 2021 researchers at the [Muon g-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muon_g-2) experiment at Fermilab [published](https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.141801) results of their measurement of muon magnetic moment. The results differ by 4.2σ from theoretical calculations based on the Standard Model, leading to [speculation](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/long-awaited-muon-measurement-boosts-evidence-for-new-physics/) that it could be a signal of new physics.\n\nAt 4.2σ, the results fall short of the threshold for a discovery (5σ), but are still unlikely enough to generate excitement. However, previous studies with high sigmas have been overturned based on systematic biases or incorrect background calculations." }, { "id": 6994, "title": "Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?", "short_title": "European Commission to borrow >€50bn in 2027?", "url_title": "European Commission to borrow >€50bn in 2027?", "slug": "european-commission-to-borrow-50bn-in-2027", "author_id": 117552, "author_username": "aqsalose", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-07T23:40:22.855869Z", "published_at": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.259582Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6994, "title": "Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?", "created_at": "2021-04-07T23:40:22.855869Z", "open_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-19T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-19T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-30T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-30T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The EU corona recovery package or the [Next Generation EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_EU) COVID-19 recovery plan, introduced for the first time large scale amounts of common EU bonds issued by European Commission (\"coronabonds\"). Previously, proposals to introduce such \"[eurobonds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurobond_(eurozone))\" had been opposed several EU countries since 2011. The NGEU package allows the European Commission to borrow €750 bn euros on behalf of European Union. Total of €672.5 bn are to distributed as grants and loans via [Recovery and Resilience Facility](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-recovery-plan/) and rest by other programmes.\n\nIn addition to NGEU, the commission also introduced in October 2020 a €100 bn [SURE](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) [instrument](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) (\"The European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency\"). Prior to NGEU, the Commission has issued bonds to provide [assistance and loans](https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower_en) to some EU countries, but on much smaller scale.\n\nCurrently the NGEU programme is supposed to be temporary, with net borrowing activity ending in 2026, but some have called for strengthening the EU fiscal union by making the NGEU or similar mechanisms permanent.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves positively if European Commission, or other body or institution representing the EU, will borrow more than €50 000 000 000 capital (net) from markets, in 2018 prices.\n\nOrganizations created by separate treaties between EU countries, such the [European Stability Mechanism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism), do not not count. The EIB and the EFSF are also excluded.", "fine_print": "The question specifies 2018 prices to be comparable with NGEU RRF programme, which also specifies 2018 prices. [See Regulation establishing the Recovery and Resilience Facility, Article 6](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/PE-75-2020-INIT/en/pdf)\n\nThe question specifies net borrowing activity, as the intention is to ask if EU will continue to issue new debt.\n\nThe intention of \"Commission or other institution\" criteria is to cover changes to the EU internal organization that result bonds continuing to be issued in behalf of the EU but not by the European Commission.", "post_id": 6994, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746022906.411746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746022906.411746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7768952301908121 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09251401259001937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12458556497060898, 0.4977796731925345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07799313101872785, 0.0, 0.08397709005035515, 0.5975016895580821, 0.0, 0.1681839553277956, 0.026429544426075636, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.06290448966866473, 0.2444386673056035, 1.4763598994093206, 1.1989575359920648, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4693521797345666, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.09622124116773499, 0.0, 1.4589908146957757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.8464681131236458, 0.0, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17837564508143805 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287664.13055, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287664.13055, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2924407941731887, 0.7075592058268113 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The EU corona recovery package or the [Next Generation EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_EU) COVID-19 recovery plan, introduced for the first time large scale amounts of common EU bonds issued by European Commission (\"coronabonds\"). Previously, proposals to introduce such \"[eurobonds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurobond_(eurozone))\" had been opposed several EU countries since 2011. The NGEU package allows the European Commission to borrow €750 bn euros on behalf of European Union. Total of €672.5 bn are to distributed as grants and loans via [Recovery and Resilience Facility](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-recovery-plan/) and rest by other programmes.\n\nIn addition to NGEU, the commission also introduced in October 2020 a €100 bn [SURE](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) [instrument](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) (\"The European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency\"). Prior to NGEU, the Commission has issued bonds to provide [assistance and loans](https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower_en) to some EU countries, but on much smaller scale.\n\nCurrently the NGEU programme is supposed to be temporary, with net borrowing activity ending in 2026, but some have called for strengthening the EU fiscal union by making the NGEU or similar mechanisms permanent." }, { "id": 6984, "title": "Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?", "short_title": "Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute", "url_title": "Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute", "slug": "belizeanguatemalan-territorial-dispute", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-07T13:36:12.464892Z", "published_at": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.377586Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6984, "title": "Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?", "created_at": "2021-04-07T13:36:12.464892Z", "open_time": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Belize and Guatamala are in [dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean–Guatemalan_territorial_dispute) over an area of land south of the Siburn river. Currently both countries have asked the ICJ to resolve the issue and they are [submitting briefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean%E2%80%93Guatemalan_territorial_dispute#Developments_since_2005).\n\nThe area of land in question is approximately 12,000 km2.\n\nAccording to Wikipedia: \"It is thought that the court will likely rule in Belize's favour, given that the 1859 treaty was ratified by both sides and implemented by Guatemala for 80 years, that Guatemala has never occupied any part of Belize, and that Belize’s boundaries have been recognized by virtually all independent states\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 8,000 km2 are awarded to Belize. If less than 4,000 km2 are awarded to Belize, this question will resolve as **No**. If the area is between these amounts, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nIf the dispute is resolved before the ICJ decides, we will still resolve on the same area based system", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6984, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703551569.631139, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703551569.631139, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.7123407961822672 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14101162055928426, 0.6959701830510906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.8891464122674194, 0.6904003887223741, 1.329323028026457, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 1.5331046472003664, 0.7076982232779687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9311463153245803, 0.4742809039517371, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1562555730704534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703922244.939673, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703922244.939673, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3972571244474393, 0.6027428755525607 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Belize and Guatamala are in [dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean–Guatemalan_territorial_dispute) over an area of land south of the Siburn river. Currently both countries have asked the ICJ to resolve the issue and they are [submitting briefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean%E2%80%93Guatemalan_territorial_dispute#Developments_since_2005).\n\nThe area of land in question is approximately 12,000 km2.\n\nAccording to Wikipedia: \"It is thought that the court will likely rule in Belize's favour, given that the 1859 treaty was ratified by both sides and implemented by Guatemala for 80 years, that Guatemala has never occupied any part of Belize, and that Belize’s boundaries have been recognized by virtually all independent states\"." }, { "id": 6981, "title": "Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?", "short_title": "Russian annexation of Ukraine by 2022", "url_title": "Russian annexation of Ukraine by 2022", "slug": "russian-annexation-of-ukraine-by-2022", "author_id": 115580, "author_username": "Aithir", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-06T20:41:55.096130Z", "published_at": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.916645Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-08T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-08T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T03:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T03:28:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 128, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6981, "title": "Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?", "created_at": "2021-04-06T20:41:55.096130Z", "open_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-17T13:40:00.621363Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-17T13:40:00.621363Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T03:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T03:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T03:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-08T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-08T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 Ukraine reacted by cutting off [nearly 90%](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-19/russia-vs-ukraine-crimea-s-water-crisis-is-an-impossible-problem-for-putin) of the region's fresh water.\nGiven the geopolitical importance of Crimea and the [Black Sea Fleet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet) this situation seems intolarable for Russia.\nRecently [Russian troops amassed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778)\n near the Ukrainian border, potentially indicating a coming conflict. Reactions by NATO and the US specifically indicate a [credible](https://www.dw.com/en/us-asks-russia-to-explain-ukrainian-border-provocations/a-57105593) threat to the Ukrainian territory.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if any formal annexations on behalf of the Russian Federation are represented within their [official constitution](http://kremlin.ru/acts/constitution) ([English source](http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-01.htm)), specifically, under '[Chapter 3, Federated device](http://kremlin.ru/acts/constitution/item#chapter3)' by 12:00AM January 1, 2022 Moscow Standard Time (GMT+3)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636401722.510606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636401722.510606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.03670663235959931 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 10.137372307209919, 3.2976181955145085, 1.2715454561652506, 1.792480608133826, 2.2065626200375053, 0.0, 0.0480424651548976, 0.34654676341029406, 0.41752870186414237, 0.16241021534987926, 0.0073589484807744425, 0.2040038858901863, 0.16272686437994863, 0.005016519567872422, 0.00124098336830585, 0.01037390189295894, 0.0011931805525433913, 0.015293128726026542, 0.0, 0.059198677219636536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.875142445089744, 0.09889382303426979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0200029851686126e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000586859480427528, 0.005803497673608363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010442151082370433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013290475260089698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016372635244738653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011419072040023296 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.045159159060013, "coverage": 0.999986077321436, "baseline_score": 88.29057893048454, "spot_peer_score": 4.009246936599457, "peer_archived_score": 15.045159159060013, "baseline_archived_score": 88.29057893048454, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.009246936599457 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636401722.542264, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636401722.542264, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9912682751047287, 0.008731724895271286 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 31, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 290, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 Ukraine reacted by cutting off [nearly 90%](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-19/russia-vs-ukraine-crimea-s-water-crisis-is-an-impossible-problem-for-putin) of the region's fresh water.\nGiven the geopolitical importance of Crimea and the [Black Sea Fleet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet) this situation seems intolarable for Russia.\nRecently [Russian troops amassed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778)\n near the Ukrainian border, potentially indicating a coming conflict. Reactions by NATO and the US specifically indicate a [credible](https://www.dw.com/en/us-asks-russia-to-explain-ukrainian-border-provocations/a-57105593) threat to the Ukrainian territory." }, { "id": 6980, "title": "If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?", "short_title": "GPT-4 Public by End of 2022", "url_title": "GPT-4 Public by End of 2022", "slug": "gpt-4-public-by-end-of-2022", "author_id": 116062, "author_username": "mtrazzi", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-06T20:27:18.578800Z", "published_at": "2021-04-11T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.707852Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-11T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T21:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T21:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-11T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6980, "title": "If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?", "created_at": "2021-04-06T20:27:18.578800Z", "open_time": "2021-04-11T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-12T17:25:05.613276Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-12T17:25:05.613276Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T21:26:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T21:26:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "OpenAI announced [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) in February 2019, a [language model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) (LM) with 1.5B parameters. In June 2020, they [publicized](https://openai.com/blog/openai-api/) an API to a [175B](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf)-parameters LM. However, accessing it required filling a form (\"wait list\") to apply for their \"playground\" app or API.", "resolution_criteria": "To resolve positively:\n\n* The model paper should be **published on arXiv or on the ICLR, NeurIPS or ICML** (top machine learning conferences) websites **before the end of 2022**.\n\n* **It should at least be an API or graphical user interface with a language model option** where you could send a text prompt and it returns text. If for instance there is a new Deep Learning model that uses 5x more compute than GPT-3 but does not provide any way to produce text from text, that does not count.\n\n* You should be able to get one API call/send one prompt by **paying less than $1k from a publicly accessible source** on the clear web that you can find using one google search. This rule is to force the accessibility to end-user.\n\n * The $1k limit insists on it being business-to-consumer and not business-to-business.\n\n * The public url from one google search dismisses any leak of the model where you would need to do extra steps yourself or have private information of a token/password protected url (cf. [DeepNude](https://www.theregister.com/2019/06/27/deepfake_nudes_app_pulled/) where you needed to do some hacking to get access to the model after the author removed it publicly)\n\nIf a model meets the first two resolution criteria by 2022, but the third criterion (about public access) is not met, then this question resolves negatively. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6980, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672487344.708366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672487344.708366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10405348811361777 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.740871976492441, 2.0385545086318917, 0.4820946812092099, 0.9796412427136766, 2.3657983835602026, 0.7585705930526657, 0.6073475340014041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01695036226548519, 1.2139781634499855, 0.26625386030838016, 0.14585398402333088, 0.20342197809775475, 0.16690946789911046, 0.0, 0.011358522086374995, 0.06612687914115949, 0.0008782752490162315, 0.012493602609094254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001322981755186089, 0.0, 0.4556357207254709, 0.0065324199916913074, 0.02245161071843299, 0.01898280703997906, 0.0, 0.21838840024106568, 0.29696714825170617, 0.0, 0.7545410499506788, 0.0, 0.03628969471386552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010872227688318024, 0.11118876700562327, 0.185017173696976, 0.123791229072723, 0.0, 0.08280320485427824, 0.00512503207471792, 0.037869149508909655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1029390209692679, 0.0, 0.19054909718204532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04463644984976473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012592687257094694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07688730020434764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13647181574739514, 0.0005305652088145888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006935976674286746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05144869349449428 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672487344.72711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672487344.72711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9861551367036424, 0.013844863296357608 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 235, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI announced [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) in February 2019, a [language model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) (LM) with 1.5B parameters. In June 2020, they [publicized](https://openai.com/blog/openai-api/) an API to a [175B](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf)-parameters LM. However, accessing it required filling a form (\"wait list\") to apply for their \"playground\" app or API." }, { "id": 6973, "title": "Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?", "short_title": "NBA raising the rim by 2030", "url_title": "NBA raising the rim by 2030", "slug": "nba-raising-the-rim-by-2030", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-05T17:29:28.307472Z", "published_at": "2021-04-09T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T07:33:00.294505Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-09T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-20T07:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-20T07:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-04-09T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6973, "title": "Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-04-05T17:29:28.307472Z", "open_time": "2021-04-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-10T18:08:47.690921Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-10T18:08:47.690921Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-20T07:33:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-20T07:33:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Basketball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball) is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The [NBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association) is the largest professional league in the world. \n\nWhilst making predictions for 2025 [Jeff Davidson](https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/team/9-predictions-for-what-your-world-just-might-look-like-in-2025) predicts that the height of the rim will be raised \"beyond the year 2025, but not too far beyond!\". We interpret that to mean 2030.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution will be based on the official [NBA rulebook](https://official.nba.com/rule-no-1-court-dimensions-equipment/). If there is no official NBA rulebook available, we will defer to Wikipedia or any other general news sourc", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6973, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763416537.095672, "end_time": 1764047991.980852, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763416537.095672, "end_time": 1764047991.980852, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.04977569667396961 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289623.902773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289623.902773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 209, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Basketball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball) is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The [NBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association) is the largest professional league in the world. \n\nWhilst making predictions for 2025 [Jeff Davidson](https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/team/9-predictions-for-what-your-world-just-might-look-like-in-2025) predicts that the height of the rim will be raised \"beyond the year 2025, but not too far beyond!\". We interpret that to mean 2030." }, { "id": 6970, "title": "Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?", "short_title": "Vaccinated travel to Canada by June?", "url_title": "Vaccinated travel to Canada by June?", "slug": "vaccinated-travel-to-canada-by-june", "author_id": 118063, "author_username": "jakebd42", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-04T05:24:30.807154Z", "published_at": "2021-04-21T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.317866Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-21T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-15T05:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-15T05:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T21:59:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-21T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6970, "title": "Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?", "created_at": "2021-04-04T05:24:30.807154Z", "open_time": "2021-04-21T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-23T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-23T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T21:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-06-01T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-15T05:20:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-15T05:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of the creation of this question, the US-Canada border remains closed, with Canada allowing foreign nationals to enter for non-essential travels only in [very rare circumstances](https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/coronavirus-covid19/travel-restrictions-exemptions.html).\n\nWill this be significantly revised by June to criteria that any vaccinated American passport-holder could pass?", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if entrance criteria for American passport holders is no different than what is was in January 2020, with one exception: additional requirement of proof of vaccination. This will be determined by available information on the Canadian government's website, canada.ca", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6970, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1621053412.46016, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1621053412.46016, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.2491081666792028 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0028115822550663413, 0.5153518936135082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05647213919671424, 1.2297224043556165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4447807702067087, 0.10891869151455617, 0.0, 1.5090597002551052, 0.5521707312792997, 0.058761847271035915, 0.0, 0.1535071897926381, 0.24826285979550225, 0.018296883616726805, 1.6408596324261153, 0.21787566225389812, 1.2738846704704996, 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Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy?", "short_title": "Soylent and health", "url_title": "Soylent and health", "slug": "soylent-and-health", "author_id": 103600, "author_username": "2e10e122", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-04-03T07:12:31.379892Z", "published_at": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.107311Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6967, "title": "Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy?", "created_at": "2021-04-03T07:12:31.379892Z", "open_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-07T19:32:31.151423Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-07T19:32:31.151423Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-11-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A [meal replacement](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Meal_replacement) is\n\n> a drink, bar, soup, etc. intended as a substitute for a solid food meal, usually with controlled quantities of calories and nutrients.\n\nMeal replacements may be consumed instead of traditional foodstuffs for several reasons, like dietary restrictions, price, and convenience.\n\nA class of meal replacements claiming to be nutritionally complete has gained popularity over the last decade. They are consumed as shakes and sold either in powder form or pre-mixed with water. Prime examples include [Soylent](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Soylent_(meal_replacement)) and [Huel](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Huel). A more comprehensive list can be found on [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/).\n\nDue to their novelty, it is unclear whether they're in fact nutritionally complete, as there could be unknown unknowns in human nutrition. Moreover, no empirical studies have established the safety of using them as one's main or sole food source over the long-term.\n\n***Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy before 2030?***\n\nThis question resolves positive if, before 2030/1/1, the FDA or the EFSA do any of the following:\n\n1. Issuing official guidelines stating that a healthy diet should not rely on meal replacements of this kind alone. It should be clear from the phrasing that they're referring to Soylent-like products specifically, i.e. products consumed as shakes and claiming to be nutritionally complete.\n\n2. Banning an ingredient or manufacturing procedure currently used by any of the products listed in the fine print.\n\n[fine-print]\nList of products, taken from [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/):\n\n- Soylent Powder/Drink\n- Huel Powder/Ready-to-drink\n- Queal Steady\n- Jimmy Joy's Plenny Shake/Drink\n- ManaPowder/ManaDrink\n- Saturo Powder/Drink\n\nIf additional products are listed by blendrunner.com in this category, they will not be considered for the purposes of this question.\n\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6967, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763040731.317719, "end_time": 1763941221.247852, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763040731.317719, "end_time": 1763941221.247852, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2839186206689829 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.32677805160011447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0609756668456782, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2344773826733824, 0.0, 0.9897723569095167, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08561795843432535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289240.552614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289240.552614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8166149581079084, 0.18338504189209162 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 148, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
