Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4940
{ "count": 6400, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4960", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4920", "results": [ { "id": 6886, "title": "Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?", "short_title": "Djokovic Total Tennis Slams", "url_title": "Djokovic Total Tennis Slams", "slug": "djokovic-total-tennis-slams", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-20T14:46:13.894825Z", "published_at": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.010081Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-07-24T14:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-24T14:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-10T20:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-10T20:33:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6886, "title": "Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?", "created_at": "2021-03-20T14:46:13.894825Z", "open_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-04T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-04T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-10T20:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-10T20:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-10T20:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-24T14:02:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-24T14:02:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Novak Djokovic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic_career_statistics) is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind [Rafael Nadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) and [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer).\n\nThe Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open.\n\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will Djokovic win #20? #21?\". The answer given was \"Yes and yes\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive when Djokovic wins his 21st Grand Slam. (As reported by credible media reports)\n\nThis question resolves negative if Djokovic stops playing tennis before winning his 21st.\n\nThis question closes early if Djokovic wins his 20th Grand Slam", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6886, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627133741.539427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627133741.539427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.9104789688362553 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26102326165716355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1561599880943003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.013686165309959817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01660289071683996, 0.8043908332778769, 1.0312494221361335, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.7710467266525035, 0.04384841732294667, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8055774048334167, 0.08544194034641192, 1.674563079122574, 0.9287285510284102, 0.2702887174842956, 2.1255877445401867, 1.8655887224229246, 0.5304726716933951, 0.0, 1.0600043527819194 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.5721624742122694, "coverage": 0.9974741082135973, "baseline_score": 65.32557722642069, "spot_peer_score": -8.26870097119778, "peer_archived_score": 0.5721624742122694, "baseline_archived_score": 65.32557722642069, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.26870097119778 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627133741.591351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627133741.591351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07455043217388668, 0.9254495678261133 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Novak Djokovic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic_career_statistics) is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind [Rafael Nadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) and [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer).\n\nThe Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open.\n\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will Djokovic win #20? #21?\". The answer given was \"Yes and yes\"." }, { "id": 6885, "title": "Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics?", "short_title": "Tennis at the 2044 Olympics", "url_title": "Tennis at the 2044 Olympics", "slug": "tennis-at-the-2044-olympics", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-20T14:20:57.166141Z", "published_at": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T19:15:12.572427Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-01-02T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6885, "title": "Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics?", "created_at": "2021-03-20T14:20:57.166141Z", "open_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-09T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-09T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2044-01-02T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Tennis has appeared the Olympics [on-and-off](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_Summer_Olympics) throughout Olympic history. It was most recently added to the program as a full sport in 1988.\n\nTennis has appeared 18 times since the start of the modern games in 1896.\n\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will tennis remain part of the Olympics in 2044?\". The answer given was \"No\".\n\n***Will the Tennis be part of the Olympics in 2044?***\n\nThis question resolves positive if there is a Tennis event in the 2044 Summer Olympic programme.\n\nIf Tennis is a demonstration sport, this resolves positive.\nIf there is no 2044 Summer Olympics, this question resolves based on the Summer Olympics closest in time to 2044-08-01. If there is no Summer Olympics within a 10 years either side, it resolves ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6885, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762110902.064128, "end_time": 1767397480.203444, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762110902.064128, "end_time": 1767397480.203444, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8789041285838548 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 6883, "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", "short_title": "Republican U.S. Senate before November 2022", "url_title": "Republican U.S. Senate before November 2022", "slug": "republican-us-senate-before-november-2022", "author_id": 115375, "author_username": "citizen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-20T08:34:06.851475Z", "published_at": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.398355Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-10-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-31T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6883, "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", "created_at": "2021-03-20T08:34:06.851475Z", "open_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-26T05:27:33.046586Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-26T05:27:33.046586Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-10-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-31T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-10-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\n\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\n\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\n\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\n\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.", "fine_print": "Question resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\n\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\n\nAlternatively, pbs.org and npr.org can suffice.", "post_id": 6883, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640369928.42774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640369928.42774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.16985617623491966 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08926193309951222, 0.4067750550550023, 0.014531632002761929, 0.0, 0.6615802345070394, 0.020232788593063038, 1.0336229009430797, 0.709217470421294, 0.5953157053272264, 2.619903365889618, 0.6567633867826737, 0.07284764691086593, 1.9224633747452793, 1.7590265483551026, 2.298956253562922, 0.28960397325333087, 0.2060817947185861, 0.9034486857932064, 0.0, 0.033374101599122824, 0.0, 0.035364159602651074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019941010520892116, 0.0005073886656760421, 0.511785498359004, 1.0, 0.0, 0.04974574969148096, 0.9506235561471845, 0.24311673443421403, 0.03030717792890102, 0.30675771358978204, 0.004907850359705531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004394686938744043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016037777780894943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5643301177679229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11504900953746945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002413899980160883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16940609254472613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.949531018692031, "coverage": 0.9997682391997579, "baseline_score": 76.15867538830038, "spot_peer_score": 14.656185947375382, "peer_archived_score": 5.949531018692031, "baseline_archived_score": 76.15867538830038, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.656185947375382 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640369928.455885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640369928.455885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9285793207088673, 0.07142067929113276 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 210, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\n\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\n\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\n\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)" }, { "id": 6870, "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman before 2046?", "short_title": "0.25 Births Per Woman Globally by 2046", "url_title": "0.25 Births Per Woman Globally by 2046", "slug": "025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2046", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-18T17:33:49.436595Z", "published_at": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T11:31:25.869391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2046-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2046-01-01T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 118, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6870, "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman before 2046?", "created_at": "2021-03-18T17:33:49.436595Z", "open_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-21T15:30:11.135493Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-21T15:30:11.135493Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2046-01-01T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2046-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2046-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\n\n----\n\nFrom a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\n\n> The end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\n\n> The chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\n\n> Swan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\n\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the annual [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 in any year between 2021 to 2045 (inclusive)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6870, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762947075.337566, "end_time": 1764096064.284045, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762947075.337566, "end_time": 1764096064.284045, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06120952736846672 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.337891153402353, 9.687540183050213, 1.340306748031424, 0.4320754062461726, 1.2497796397027925, 1.1180396661995575, 0.7121405126960281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042657314958895784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3472446349964912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011728021578432645, 0.08511893618011131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7189071226332622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35932239062179433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19015874890448764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013710560332936373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3979329272198096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290061.950185, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290061.950185, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986029110863204, 0.00139708891367967 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 212, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\n\n----\n\nFrom a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\n\n> The end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\n\n> The chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\n\n> Swan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\n\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data." }, { "id": 6858, "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", "short_title": "SF bans indoor dining in late 2021", "url_title": "SF bans indoor dining in late 2021", "slug": "sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021", "author_id": 112146, "author_username": "GustavoLacerda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-16T05:55:31.802679Z", "published_at": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.899698Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-09T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-09T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-03T20:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-03T20:36:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6858, "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", "created_at": "2021-03-16T05:55:31.802679Z", "open_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-24T22:09:03.765815Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-24T22:09:03.765815Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-03T20:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-03T20:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-03T20:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-09T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-09T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/)\n* [When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/)\n* [Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/)\n\nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)) or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\n\n***Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\n\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6858, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1631151868.069935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1631151868.069935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2863839792939073 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.02429953011885259, 0.0, 0.05982595666717767, 0.0, 0.545682030726345, 0.034166571748472256, 0.003619268816132332, 0.031209075815422052, 0.012756731128426116, 0.09332892378720226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7503570934427063, 0.0, 0.056476161677748, 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unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?", "short_title": "Will SCOTUS hear a male-only draft case?", "url_title": "Will SCOTUS hear a male-only draft case?", "slug": "will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-15T19:39:43.428885Z", "published_at": "2021-03-17T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.459215Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-17T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:47:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-17T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], 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false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In August of 2020, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals [ruled against](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) a challenge by the National Coalition for Men (NCFM), which was seeking to overturn the male-only military draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination. In [Rostker v. Goldberg (1981)](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/01/petitions-of-the-week-the-men-only-draft-and-compelled-iphone-passcodes/) the Supreme Court had upheld the male-only draft as Constitutional on the grounds that women were barred from serving in combat roles at the time. But in 2015 combat roles [were opened](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/03/458319524/pentagon-will-allow-women-in-frontline-ground-combat-positions) to female soldiers.\n\nNCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, [which in an opinion](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) stated:\n>\"Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do.\"\n\nNCFM filed an [appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/) requesting their case be heard.\n\n***Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?***\n\nThe question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/), reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case.\n\nPositive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6853, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625173705.854209, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625173705.854209, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.024328369848523133 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 10.638279665067577, 2.2544885377810115, 0.208753764822917, 0.0, 1.1811868150457474, 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2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n\n* [When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n\n----\n\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\n\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\n\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\n\n>**At least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent)** \n>\n>[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\n\n***Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\n\n[fine-print]\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. 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religious?", "created_at": "2021-03-14T02:58:49.950151Z", "open_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-18T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-28T15:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-28T15:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-28T15:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \n\nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\n\n>Almost one in three Australians (32%) now do not\nidentify with a religion, and 14% identify as\nspiritual but not religious. \n\nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n\n- 36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n- 26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n- 22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \n\nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \n\nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6838, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628528765.915883, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628528765.915883, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.16083934656534782 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.42500489163223787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0650532590372146, 0.0, 0.2519740871949554, 0.7421409634973282, 1.0322936953396915, 1.806483945392587, 0.0, 0.7634932819385514, 0.22981289680703934, 0.6873484555754474, 0.478736974528443, 0.4297773845600095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6380554254638746, 0.0, 0.5922557124095238, 0.20628112339813415, 0.0, 0.041243373854742214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8629050061859964, 0.0, 0.20926539955466936, 0.0, 1.3497278520753913, 0.004333234413825695, 0.4025125449715999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.3011225385298923, "coverage": 0.9980371464333272, "baseline_score": 64.97689119438131, "spot_peer_score": -1.774817150627071, "peer_archived_score": 1.3011225385298923, "baseline_archived_score": 64.97689119438131, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.774817150627071 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1628528766.009326, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1628528766.009326, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9274528220382879, 0.07254717796171202 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \n\nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\n\n>Almost one in three Australians (32%) now do not\nidentify with a religion, and 14% identify as\nspiritual but not religious. \n\nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n\n- 36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n- 26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n- 22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \n\nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017." }, { "id": 6837, "title": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?", "short_title": "Taylor Swift album in 2021", "url_title": "Taylor Swift album in 2021", "slug": "taylor-swift-album-in-2021", "author_id": 117833, "author_username": "q_rat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-13T09:51:36.942375Z", "published_at": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.983097Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:58:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6837, "title": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-03-13T09:51:36.942375Z", "open_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-03T04:58:44.147736Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-03T04:58:44.147736Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T04:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020.\n\nThe timeline of previous albums:\n\nLover (2019)\n\nReputation (2017)\n\n1989 (2014)\n\nRed (2012)\n\nSpeak Now (2010)\n\nFearless (2008)\n\nTaylor Swift (2006)", "resolution_criteria": "An [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record.\n\nIf Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6837, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630432303.269478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630432303.269478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.4877354356449674 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045669104580177144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6039843306575171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19633866119102775, 0.004715380590217308, 0.0, 1.247427990836552, 0.0, 0.38401106746097324, 0.0, 0.8308111453462594, 0.0, 0.0, 1.309943691878692, 0.09495037644869721, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4955742943419901, 0.026105731949404222, 0.04136365129413757, 0.030913391797042382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06194689551104664, 0.04064970510981856, 0.03372481884086813, 0.021786738318048823, 0.2844637239593917, 0.940527522258481, 1.1369048488487055, 0.6476600248908295, 0.06666153381636768, 2.64715401405424, 0.02439891007171052, 0.14365297647072853, 0.0, 0.0, 1.399122387787441, 0.0, 0.03814680543955937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.185899198577363, 0.11243806167157062, 0.433058029116845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30563833986898786, 0.12213964696863193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0797787163600839, 0.05032766519653908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06639659501548972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2645571001306608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.440089690990212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017210301564934184 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.202115035034099, "coverage": 0.9998404395131602, "baseline_score": -8.615089652594667, "spot_peer_score": 14.7398523609381, "peer_archived_score": 5.202115035034099, "baseline_archived_score": -8.615089652594667, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.7398523609381 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630432303.296042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630432303.296042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4823819320226712, 0.5176180679773288 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 193, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020.\n\nThe timeline of previous albums:\n\nLover (2019)\n\nReputation (2017)\n\n1989 (2014)\n\nRed (2012)\n\nSpeak Now (2010)\n\nFearless (2008)\n\nTaylor Swift (2006)" }, { "id": 6829, "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", "short_title": "Derek Chauvin convicted of homicide by June?", "url_title": "Derek Chauvin convicted of homicide by June?", "slug": "derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-12T02:45:10.319385Z", "published_at": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.471460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 254, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-04-19T21:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-04-19T21:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-04-20T21:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-04-20T21:08:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 281, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6829, "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", "created_at": "2021-03-12T02:45:10.319385Z", "open_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-15T18:26:55.801893Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-15T18:26:55.801893Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-04-20T21:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-04-20T21:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-04-20T21:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-04-19T21:04:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-04-19T21:04:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\n\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n\n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\n\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6829, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1618866234.716716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 281, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1618866234.716716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 281, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6039587433731999 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.19110668241497097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4262391812558313e-07, 0.01582193838185378, 5.71372801858139e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7113830512350239, 0.0, 0.05873861221804968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006094327584271835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20921968374265415, 0.0003026902427864534, 0.5894729724923355, 0.0, 0.0003394817978958344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003801821047817782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05010751563258146, 0.0, 0.04176774753904782, 0.0, 0.000175657283749287, 0.0, 1.446404373086633e-06, 0.9419377926854453, 0.16847508148049545, 0.00045260748138649804, 1.0538561320792258e-06, 0.08749693812855094, 0.05037439640581981, 0.05121039894282806, 0.04565250676654525, 1.8873836382941949, 0.1919648249909472, 0.5575374993051053, 0.07467227230665668, 0.36352717931897705, 1.1315097356237314, 0.06166991692662792, 2.2821465571729624, 3.606607601043979, 0.7570326979371811, 0.0, 0.32060933298496386, 1.8171630519901125, 0.9419893627718208, 0.004911885328502242, 1.2174766079877934, 0.0, 2.6118262681143345, 0.48627250250464127, 2.05691919242161, 0.9705871478389148, 0.0, 1.3732457605817066, 0.1604344082673891, 0.46741393399315734, 0.374066841787014, 1.2968479418743422, 0.3730823099018241, 0.03146372705924277, 0.4662400660825712, 0.5672387545618369, 0.012863248742419538, 0.194354934114445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011391943467531815, 0.01838443050134559, 0.0005898303757367934, 0.5975138563100534, 4.06127353885647e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4963031736592461, 0.0, 0.3984891148288753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20244162084217657, 0.0, 0.42386248243698665 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.069629173502356, "coverage": 0.9998681517457025, "baseline_score": -20.71481637443132, "spot_peer_score": 10.410125655819275, "peer_archived_score": 19.069629173502356, "baseline_archived_score": -20.71481637443132, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.410125655819275 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1618866234.851682, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 281, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1618866234.851682, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 281, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.39444074810863783, 0.6055592518913622 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 41, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 921, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\n\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n\n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty." }, { "id": 6827, "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?", "short_title": "Milky Way Supernova Detection before 2050", "url_title": "Milky Way Supernova Detection before 2050", "slug": "milky-way-supernova-detection-before-2050", "author_id": 113693, "author_username": "Mellaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-11T19:36:18.895347Z", "published_at": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T01:55:11.282358Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6827, "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?", "created_at": "2021-03-11T19:36:18.895347Z", "open_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-19T00:59:24.050227Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-19T00:59:24.050227Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\n\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the\nelectromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\n\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\n\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)) but a recent estimate is of \\(4.6^{+7.4}_{-2.7}\\) SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\n\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a supernova has been observed by humanity in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2050. This time period refers to the date when the supernova has been observed, not when the supernova itself occurs (which may be many hundreds of years in the past)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6827, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761443700.391982, "end_time": 1764212739.217541, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761443700.391982, "end_time": 1764212739.217541, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6601094115931433 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017494230548454617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5271525541054037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03094679367520054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6345893939971625, 0.0, 0.016524776749549424, 0.0, 0.06291985323287631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05080900114132035, 0.9129360463120559, 0.0, 0.003637646323940793, 0.17116651435296082, 0.03830240356570197, 0.0, 0.21925555021421456, 0.03974132889310917, 0.47512968973581, 4.032066733878309, 0.0, 0.00475542490027373, 0.8822863496812974, 0.0, 3.237942435481475, 0.0, 0.02713823006833058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8214336329880518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012926585093015749 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289555.781726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289555.781726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.36930369421952747, 0.6306963057804725 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 147, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\n\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the\nelectromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\n\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\n\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)) but a recent estimate is of \\(4.6^{+7.4}_{-2.7}\\) SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\n\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae." }, { "id": 6810, "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on January 1, 2022?", "short_title": "Uyghur Internment Camps Status on Jan 1, 2022", "url_title": "Uyghur Internment Camps Status on Jan 1, 2022", "slug": "uyghur-internment-camps-status-on-jan-1-2022", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-09T21:24:09.717297Z", "published_at": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.721997Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6810, "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on January 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2021-03-09T21:24:09.717297Z", "open_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-14T04:17:00.829406Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-14T04:17:00.829406Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-09T18:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-09T18:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-09T18:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/)\n\n----\n\nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\n\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\n\n>**The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)**\n>\n>[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\n\n***Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?***", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after January 1, 2022. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \n\n[fine-print]\nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6810, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627317115.32857, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627317115.32857, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9735893145966078 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024180497307793418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05370469690466644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33919917683413425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032654082124374505, 0.0, 0.011933573275951067, 0.23753188287003488, 0.000365894509793429, 0.25884122061385245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4350833433904157, 0.09079275177630637, 0.9155362215119143, 0.8344901911892258, 1.7317616516863938, 3.0191315807186356, 9.198067880057705 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627317115.415334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627317115.415334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.016254484553597792, 0.9837455154464022 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 176, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/)\n\n----\n\nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\n\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\n\n>**The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)**\n>\n>[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\n\n***Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?***" }, { "id": 6806, "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", "short_title": "Lab-grown organs used in humans by 2035?", "url_title": "Lab-grown organs used in humans by 2035?", "slug": "lab-grown-organs-used-in-humans-by-2035", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-09T19:29:42.268976Z", "published_at": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T02:42:08.391701Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6806, "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", "created_at": "2021-03-09T19:29:42.268976Z", "open_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-13T17:45:18.371000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-13T17:45:18.371000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/)\n\nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\n\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\n\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.", "resolution_criteria": "**Before Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?**\n\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"lab-grown\" includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs. ", "fine_print": "\"Lab-grown\" refers to organs that contain living biological cells. Purely mechanical devices such as artificial hearts do not count for the purpose of this question.", "post_id": 6806, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763552265.697752, "end_time": 1764455354.660709, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763552265.697752, "end_time": 1764455354.660709, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6851055814779835 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289578.890239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289578.890239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.39445950451181533, 0.6055404954881847 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 42, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 239, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/)\n\nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\n\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\n\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice." }, { "id": 6801, "title": "Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?", "short_title": "Dukedom of Sussex divorce by March 8 2022.", "url_title": "Dukedom of Sussex divorce by March 8 2022.", "slug": "dukedom-of-sussex-divorce-by-march-8-2022", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-08T01:35:24.037821Z", "published_at": "2021-07-23T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.117394Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-07-23T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-08T17:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-08T17:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-07-23T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6801, "title": "Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?", "created_at": "2021-03-08T01:35:24.037821Z", "open_time": "2021-07-23T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-25T00:39:13.982898Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-25T00:39:13.982898Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-08T17:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-08T17:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-08T17:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Prince Henry of Wales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Harry,_Duke_of_Sussex) and [Rachel Meghan Markle](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meghan,_Duchess_of_Sussex) are members of the [British royal family](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_royal_family) and the current [Duke and Duchess of Sussex](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_of_Sussex). 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In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\n\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\n\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\n\n>The biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)) [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\n>\n>The Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\n\n***Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6792, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1626400902.618687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1626400902.618687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.2129241297544835 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 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restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-03-06T17:09:29.665090Z", "open_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-10T07:59:02.940141Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-10T07:59:02.940141Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-14T18:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-14T18:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-02-14T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": 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[US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\n\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\n\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\n\n>**Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)**\n>\n>With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\n\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n\n* Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n\n* Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n\n* Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n\n* Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n\n* Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n\n* Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n\n* Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1629417752.137786, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1629417752.137786, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6197857877423468 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047065967472563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12345059748575654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05451133392988236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030815271309911525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9553359167509063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3862084272492791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6326900287523809, 0.15207970849988256, 0.7460493290654691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1184216938107337, 1.0954418224522833, 0.04171983066671895, 0.0, 0.07889090770323962, 0.8212982028150964, 0.0, 0.047802726739546664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.006850032599516, 0.22518626811013776, 0.811583885269901, 0.5633504934562734, 0.0, 1.015977422099958, 0.0418577381553061, 0.07000249760431822, 0.0, 0.33591406139313224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6844047848430631, 0.03621693803772868, 0.5843051095475567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2302150719613073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -6.095140952718253, "coverage": 0.9995048583623655, "baseline_score": -98.44820393623723, "spot_peer_score": -10.462805468836367, "peer_archived_score": -6.095140952718253, "baseline_archived_score": -98.44820393623723, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.462805468836367 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1629417752.162137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1629417752.162137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2924717239037963, 0.7075282760962037 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 177, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\n\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\n\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\n\n>**Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)**\n>\n>With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\n\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:" }, { "id": 6782, "title": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?", "short_title": "Abortion bans allowed by US courts in 2021", "url_title": "Abortion bans allowed by US courts in 2021", "slug": "abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-05T19:03:12.703797Z", "published_at": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.626285Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T18:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T18:29:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6782, "title": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?", "created_at": "2021-03-05T19:03:12.703797Z", "open_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T18:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T18:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T18:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before *[Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade)* was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. *Roe* established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming *Roe v. Wade*; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than *Roe* allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn *Roe*, or carve smaller exceptions to *Roe*. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\n\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\n\n>The Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n>\n>[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\n>\n>I consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\n\n***By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6782, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627954633.084997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627954633.084997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.24045025017348404 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.11981076312780951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899839106380127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5221560426127164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9253192545386865, 0.30445314579120214, 0.0, 0.10666096661288105, 0.6183252296339623, 0.8554006031583444, 0.7124783180171947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18546127569376372, 1.7288213086725668, 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"created_at": "2021-03-05T14:25:37.011230Z", "published_at": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.869622Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:43:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": 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"description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6781, "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", "created_at": "2021-03-05T14:25:37.011230Z", "open_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-11T15:27:30.840787Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-11T15:27:30.840787Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T19:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\n\n***Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?***\n\n[fine-print]\n* Applies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n\n* The offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, ***do*** count as related.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6781, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630448401.722792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630448401.722792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.10507046844751806 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7976801926481901, 0.46684378584040853, 0.0, 0.04203940166576829, 2.3225038418589987, 0.6782416881858238, 0.23761652173150052, 1.064800689809508, 0.0, 1.32573833461147, 0.45668255289729465, 1.3381866640438225, 0.026430157778456278, 0.022263149504593318, 1.729645227682419, 0.2308627371231968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6777, "title": "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?", "created_at": "2021-03-04T22:20:34.540208Z", "open_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-17T07:21:11.373372Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-17T07:21:11.373372Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-28T12:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-28T12:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-03-28T12:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-26T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-26T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).\n\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\n\n***Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?***\n\n* This question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).\n\n* This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.\n\n[fine-print]\nThe 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286).\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6777, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1616932055.272347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1616932055.272347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9326283007547326 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 [far outsold](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111604/video-games-consoles-unit-sales/) other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales.\n\nWith the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch.\n\nIn January 2021, the Switch [continued to sell more units](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/12/u-s-console-sales-just-had-the-best-january-in-more-than-a-generation/), however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by [supply chain issues](https://www.ft.com/content/f7c089dc-515e-4387-82fd-ea0a49998650) which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch.\n\nWhile the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds [4 of the top 6 spots](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_consoles) historically for total units sold.", "resolution_criteria": "Results published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch [found here](https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html) and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found [on page 9 of this PDF](https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/20q3_supplement.pdf).", "fine_print": "Only sales in the year 2021 count (this is not a question about lifetime sales).\n\nThe fiscal years of Sony/Nintendo do not align with the calendar year. This question is about the standard calendar year 2021, not the fiscal years.", "post_id": 6776, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1621543688.8929, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1621543688.8929, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.29690687661040255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6761553182739726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19976240866306647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.84010522323369, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.0, 1.4288011669665333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4368134186170671, 0.0, 2.3612179514614544, 0.8735519132755631, 0.10972487483863327, 0.6147755622241976, 0.07290041733962924, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0432718236392902, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0275529419036715, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7130527459887679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.840065498030442, "coverage": 0.9982485525448354, "baseline_score": 43.395868089530225, "spot_peer_score": 20.15680862386181, "peer_archived_score": 5.840065498030442, "baseline_archived_score": 43.395868089530225, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.15680862386181 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1621543688.946174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1621543688.946174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8134602967764828, 0.18653970322351726 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 [far outsold](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111604/video-games-consoles-unit-sales/) other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales.\n\nWith the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch.\n\nIn January 2021, the Switch [continued to sell more units](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/12/u-s-console-sales-just-had-the-best-january-in-more-than-a-generation/), however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by [supply chain issues](https://www.ft.com/content/f7c089dc-515e-4387-82fd-ea0a49998650) which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch.\n\nWhile the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds [4 of the top 6 spots](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_consoles) historically for total units sold." } ] }