Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4960
{ "count": 6400, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4980", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4940", "results": [ { "id": 6763, "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", "short_title": "Marine Le Pen French President in 2022", "url_title": "Marine Le Pen French President in 2022", "slug": "marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022", "author_id": 116584, "author_username": "pierreavdb", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-04T09:32:41.277490Z", "published_at": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.111448Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-24T18:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-24T18:40:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 423, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6763, "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", "created_at": "2021-03-04T09:32:41.277490Z", "open_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-07T16:38:32.562721Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-07T16:38:32.562721Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-24T18:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-24T18:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-24T18:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-23T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-23T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\n\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\n\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6763, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650751097.000684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 423, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650751097.000684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 423, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.10503729317947966 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.922340264486452, 1.4267610234632384, 3.616360870041212, 1.9727789275106, 5.528094143053335, 2.547914575123343, 1.9280681165252895, 1.875354011739498, 1.5504485815840272, 2.2794904168890904, 0.2135753913540389, 2.2582529441380985, 1.0085397350190974, 9.855134688049683e-07, 2.242456816878604, 0.005672306335351148, 0.014203862100017377, 0.17413227508859727, 0.014216190384094256, 2.6285977754616567, 1.1392332289292717, 0.2542491795128415, 0.09935209796110892, 0.0031751115560547803, 0.020176912969804554, 0.5568184124483442, 0.022957558758795668, 0.036150962776678744, 0.0, 0.05428531149279715, 0.000580229552472483, 8.13647980319781e-08, 0.000547709318399323, 0.285430735971159, 0.04395408647164941, 0.0, 0.0003641833309988791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019192441630778125, 0.014158255875982401, 0.001094542065098946, 0.0035750386985159213, 0.0, 0.00017502381398401236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012540783139982812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003241000150336109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004098093663975042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002548005756946264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.016407584560134e-05, 0.001865722420380138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4147649059233016e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8638242505877834 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.173982566828495, "coverage": 0.9999851267330644, "baseline_score": 77.07482017654213, "spot_peer_score": 2.3172833982628593, "peer_archived_score": 5.173982566828495, "baseline_archived_score": 77.07482017654213, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.3172833982628593 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650751097.112381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 423, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650751097.112381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 423, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9799474367383566, 0.020052563261643407 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 35, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1246, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\n\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\n\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)." }, { "id": 6730, "title": "Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Dogecoin Worth $1 on 2025-01-01", "url_title": "Dogecoin Worth $1 on 2025-01-01", "slug": "dogecoin-worth-1-on-2025-01-01", "author_id": 117743, "author_username": "c98edwards", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-04T04:36:24.091256Z", "published_at": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.688968Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T01:13:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 130, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6730, "title": "Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2021-03-04T04:36:24.091256Z", "open_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-02T02:20:44.516886Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-02T02:20:44.516886Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T01:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-04T01:13:53.233349Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n\nCommodity.com provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\n\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \n\nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \n\nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\n\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)", "resolution_criteria": "In order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6730, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672523243.110131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672523243.110131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10157822463431002 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.723061107374995, 2.166090285779646, 2.8483147920091567, 2.5596515539860683, 3.79404704456273, 1.3030349556289758, 0.06357776831387188, 0.345468276318622, 0.0, 0.9223100842396547, 0.0, 0.01878282079946467, 0.12762973162081365, 0.41645879926869633, 1.1592162125841474, 0.0055530792312750935, 0.18967238648430498, 0.005117679520578566, 0.8756012101279371, 0.03656715252644332, 0.0, 0.04452940861361238, 0.13127805624182545, 0.012806317289036051, 0.0, 0.03460757698848635, 0.0, 0.007321189491782487, 0.0, 0.004711180847754763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007050248220700992, 0.03704733190097864, 0.014332490989815004, 0.0, 0.0010223199877964217, 0.00023455588296053762, 0.02249782438710709, 0.03689935381174137, 0.0, 0.03940832120170523, 0.0, 0.006019093013615877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013749554165327273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025474768392577253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02530708346119719, 0.03481117957626761, 0.0001975755397793671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005144630191191386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01941676900635268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9568504277218792, 0.0, 0.058452938371129484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09349136968947225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036491754352390277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028794611337204092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016983392020797544 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 68.73065505266976, "peer_score": 30.956186350921854, "coverage": 0.999959180170758, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999959180170758, "spot_peer_score": 2.1958465313586277, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 68.73065505266976, "peer_archived_score": 30.956186350921854, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.1958465313586277, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672523243.134533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672523243.134533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9927214283180054, 0.007278571681994634 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 507, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n\nCommodity.com provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\n\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \n\nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \n\nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\n\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)" }, { "id": 6729, "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", "short_title": "4th COVID wave in US", "url_title": "4th COVID wave in US", "slug": "4th-covid-wave-in-us", "author_id": 115982, "author_username": "taskaryan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-04T03:07:08.134837Z", "published_at": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.382811Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-02T20:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-02T20:47:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6729, "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", "created_at": "2021-03-04T03:07:08.134837Z", "open_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-02T20:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-02T20:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-06-02T20:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n\n<br/>", "resolution_criteria": "We define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n\n1. 7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more.\n2. the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k.\n\nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n\n- trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater\n- trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater\n- trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater\n\nThe following examples would not:\n\n- trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k\n- trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k\n- trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \n\nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6729, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1618457236.473933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1618457236.473933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5439593006260669 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021754227014258746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22070116988518806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8865754792578854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07265466937739974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25497232596493324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7846152092275941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3527919999580746, 0.04618511849820684, 0.011180132954712787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6323025355951392, 0.1793843501280284, 0.4134223820577321, 0.36126950895310606, 0.0, 0.15084718380091722, 0.0, 0.6393921594938272, 0.30825881723272286, 0.8185192183363038, 1.5327074911249885, 2.600708615493432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021250953495745357, 0.9836389195633642, 0.050719975180017585, 0.0, 0.6985579525890749, 0.0, 0.23730785012660063, 1.003933706607008, 0.15169860826427847, 0.0, 0.1436465708729546, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6110402836301606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.01618032019129673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3373985602531765, 0.0, 0.10189241930013437, 0.00742799989072429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02273102448084273, 0.5732974486106766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006409490637180558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.808779733757211, "coverage": 0.9949701796117378, "baseline_score": 5.447543514706287, "spot_peer_score": 16.80833744606716, "peer_archived_score": 11.808779733757211, "baseline_archived_score": 5.447543514706287, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.80833744606716 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1618457236.575413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1618457236.575413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41610080171531805, 0.583899198284682 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 202, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n\n<br/>" }, { "id": 6725, "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", "short_title": "Police Abolition in American City by 2035", "url_title": "Police Abolition in American City by 2035", "slug": "police-abolition-in-american-city-by-2035", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-03T21:00:11.839360Z", "published_at": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T16:15:46.184838Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6725, "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", "created_at": "2021-03-03T21:00:11.839360Z", "open_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-07T14:53:13.166544Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-07T14:53:13.166544Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\n\n> The police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\n\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\n\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\n\n> According to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\n\n> In many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.\n\n*30 October 2021 clarification: Resolution text changed from*\n> \"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\" \n\n*to*\n\n> \"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6725, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762532135.919913, "end_time": 1766497615.0715, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762532135.919913, "end_time": 1766497615.0715, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.038242118290258656 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.3018828097051687, 11.00622188602338, 2.252138910516094, 0.15988607544565364, 0.054711981585747846, 3.4350900657264325, 0.034447748674314875, 0.006943576813170171, 0.03249532991633816, 0.07823622111101271, 0.3285665351496221, 0.0, 0.007366989724210423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010840928949867233, 0.0002873388365331587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03878737691198833, 0.46016276112798904, 0.0, 0.15965996448081868, 0.024920911853274354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007873685800849873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003792584527754642, 0.0010883216769238323, 0.0, 0.00018064983050492342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08138889344253086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046192109140592796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21883328379980627 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288550.348715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288550.348715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9989136696335934, 0.0010863303664066484 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 372, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\n\n> The police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\n\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\n\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\n\n> According to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\n\n> In many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact." }, { "id": 6723, "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", "short_title": "Dominant Assurance Contract Venture by 2035", "url_title": "Dominant Assurance Contract Venture by 2035", "slug": "dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-03T20:19:05.712985Z", "published_at": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.245695Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6723, "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", "created_at": "2021-03-03T20:19:05.712985Z", "open_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-08T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-08T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\n\n> An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\n\n> The free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n\n> [...]\n\n> Dominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\n\n> Tabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence before January 1, 2035. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n\n* Its owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n\n* Any of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n\n* A Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being delete", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6723, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740023533.750693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.723 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740023533.750693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.723 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.277, 0.723 ], "means": [ 0.7225189160696772 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2379589207482513, 0.235537983271061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4198498216848079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4512058906735414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10777483786483952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22922691488320934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2986311085618147 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289564.596812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289564.596812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3309506359589315, 0.6690493640410685 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\n\n> An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\n\n> The free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n\n> [...]\n\n> Dominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\n\n> Tabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"" }, { "id": 6721, "title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?", "short_title": "Successful seasteading by 2035", "url_title": "Successful seasteading by 2035", "slug": "successful-seasteading-by-2035", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-03T20:07:42.448467Z", "published_at": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T13:50:38.769188Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6721, "title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?", "created_at": "2021-03-03T20:07:42.448467Z", "open_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-08T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-08T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),\n\n> Seasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.\n\n> Proponents say seasteads can \"provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship.\" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.\n\n> No one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.\n\n> As an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous \"seazone\" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.\n\n> The first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6721, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763378131.148437, "end_time": 1763948516.238006, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763378131.148437, "end_time": 1763948516.238006, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14272170299156786 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.377980839121325, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4689030197284811, 0.0, 0.6597614436083319, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 0.5898635470599414, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.07804183443061195, 0.3678794411714424, 0.1857459851945321, 0.2841245407359965, 0.21526221595892353, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.06810270725659812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288080.409919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288080.409919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9460161524860046, 0.05398384751399548 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 150, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),\n\n> Seasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.\n\n> Proponents say seasteads can \"provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship.\" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.\n\n> No one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.\n\n> As an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous \"seazone\" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.\n\n> The first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials." }, { "id": 6710, "title": "Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?", "short_title": "U.S school staff to get 1st dose by 31 March?", "url_title": "U.S school staff to get 1st dose by 31 March?", "slug": "us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-03T01:03:15.627483Z", "published_at": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.817534Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-24T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-24T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-03T17:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-03T17:59:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6710, "title": "Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?", "created_at": "2021-03-03T01:03:15.627483Z", "open_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-04T22:44:07.398798Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-04T22:44:07.398798Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-03T17:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-03T17:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-06-03T17:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-24T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-24T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. \n\nIf there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.\n\n*5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would **not** count toward negative resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6710, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1616596362.356846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1616596362.356846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.491233934464542 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.11755141015135048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13189993071048575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007906833746592184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035451237739533925, 0.007165678900495897, 0.18535366485773136, 0.1919218222003835, 0.009362710949132512, 0.0, 0.7311992666466083, 0.0, 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"interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1616596362.548174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4081328787603774, 0.5918671212396226 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 228, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program." }, { "id": 6709, "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", "short_title": "Enough vaccine for all U.S. adults by 31 May?", "url_title": "Enough vaccine for all U.S. adults by 31 May?", "slug": "enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-03T00:04:20.827147Z", "published_at": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.708952Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T22:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T22:03:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6709, "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", "created_at": "2021-03-03T00:04:20.827147Z", "open_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-04T19:29:31.085834Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-04T19:29:31.085834Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T22:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T22:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-06-01T22:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\n\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \n\nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n\n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\n\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \n\nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\n\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6709, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1621866416.976719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1621866416.976719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.25142880260420447 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.49233270403563734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13621665542510367, 0.0, 0.10448421426982638, 0.24669300219790607, 0.0, 0.4763335052300926, 0.0, 0.16690946789911046, 0.5771741285517303, 1.9225151319802833, 1.1576612184444186, 0.09580740838405215, 0.4326127976760947, 0.5055170914949985, 1.2342464911168654, 0.839922667944129, 1.080889328594412, 0.0, 0.680162133115384, 0.0914917673079779, 1.2516301821910005, 0.0, 0.06124471021719028, 1.3927512993799795, 0.0, 0.15607478299882238, 0.03197929551797068, 0.0, 0.02686947900519346, 0.0, 0.6455429414469296, 0.0, 0.010222105112996144, 0.29779178426847513, 0.947361962928026, 0.551463111955558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02457921448930082, 0.019930462725757814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02245161071843299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008424374523656424, 0.005796431149441483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.611889292455418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003095850664043604, 0.0, 0.003958218974807764, 0.0, 0.0018853939356329463, 0.0005305652088145888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7193936421320899, 0.0, 0.0006935976674286746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00860365871593319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00512503207471792, 0.0015881406163327676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.215643240433776, "coverage": 0.9994387042203658, "baseline_score": -12.056691722712104, "spot_peer_score": -19.34120870834108, "peer_archived_score": 11.215643240433776, "baseline_archived_score": -12.056691722712104, "spot_peer_archived_score": -19.34120870834108 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1621866417.036059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1621866417.036059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8464446362652364, 0.1535553637347636 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 275, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\n\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S." }, { "id": 6702, "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?", "short_title": "Northern Irish Reunification Referendum 2030", "url_title": "Northern Irish Reunification Referendum 2030", "slug": "northern-irish-reunification-referendum-2030", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-01T19:20:45.433395Z", "published_at": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T15:24:22.608038Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6702, "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-03-01T19:20:45.433395Z", "open_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Irish Reunification movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland) has existed in some form since Ireland was partitioned into two countries in 1921. Ireland is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), a member of the United Kingdom, and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.\n\nAs part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland \"shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification with Ireland before January 1, 2030, 12PM GMT", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6702, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763430597.97354, "end_time": 1763892289.727418, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763430597.97354, "end_time": 1763892289.727418, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1740642254434522 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.13813894976991253, 0.021936199508452464, 0.39818867837781474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9615997508780557, 0.7288472840026776, 0.0, 2.181705469598163, 0.0, 0.29763889907521374, 0.4539815201632227, 0.4269214684219575, 0.0, 0.7843767133252093, 1.801406871854395, 0.8284076835897499, 0.0, 0.49064195879190947, 0.0, 1.8369576240532586, 0.0, 0.8949340933603018, 0.09850035746144059, 0.0, 0.002949293081317581, 0.23954639433616837, 0.015157278973843901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4551284691519768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02759496933622408, 0.08817388682671443, 0.0, 0.02465685044932449, 0.011366942537763804, 0.1073881054056872, 0.06540691241016873, 0.0, 0.008689560138641658, 0.003650949509915334, 0.0, 0.034326350332688736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1299444696545822, 0.05798263575209038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023291363431415532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011600507024289436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290003.053304, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290003.053304, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.947953859073487, 0.05204614092651302 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 271, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Irish Reunification movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland) has existed in some form since Ireland was partitioned into two countries in 1921. Ireland is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), a member of the United Kingdom, and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.\n\nAs part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland \"shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland\"." }, { "id": 6700, "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", "short_title": "Global Carbon Emissions Increase in 2021", "url_title": "Global Carbon Emissions Increase in 2021", "slug": "global-carbon-emissions-increase-in-2021", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-03-01T18:16:18.856554Z", "published_at": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.436368Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-10T17:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-10T17:28:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus 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"2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6700, "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", "created_at": "2021-03-01T18:16:18.856554Z", "open_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-04T14:51:54.724738Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-04T14:51:54.724738Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-10T17:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-10T17:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-10T17:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\n\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\n\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\n\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).", "fine_print": "If there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used.", "post_id": 6700, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1631233906.994435, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1631233906.994435, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9653436722443122 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00797247044402181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02392715308150051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016912774913815877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004025379543753844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006157382690986979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.138607890209693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01590144797162688, 0.0024705024163893547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001078956545637215, 0.0, 0.007021506238153396, 0.012783181577003842, 0.003449647572140941, 0.7845148581684454, 0.2964170805706633, 0.509087878008174, 0.3917053435039991, 0.2624275585919287, 1.444085408581398, 0.8534328714995629, 4.173168250335253, 0.4306927899015176, 6.797802525939324 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.291213655726976, "coverage": 0.9999918221534986, "baseline_score": 92.3049228629384, "spot_peer_score": 5.808240239126208, "peer_archived_score": 9.291213655726976, "baseline_archived_score": 92.3049228629384, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.808240239126208 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1631233907.169299, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1631233907.169299, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.02352586147509972, 0.9764741385249003 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\n\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\n\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\n\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021." }, { "id": 6694, "title": "Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?", "short_title": "Continental Europe Blackout before 2023", "url_title": "Continental Europe Blackout before 2023", "slug": "continental-europe-blackout-before-2023", "author_id": 117552, "author_username": "aqsalose", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-28T07:18:11.416486Z", "published_at": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.960388Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 72, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6694, "title": "Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-02-28T07:18:11.416486Z", "open_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-01T17:05:42.490660Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-01T17:05:42.490660Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Continental European synchronous area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe) is the largest interconnected power grid in the world, with hundreds of millions of customers. Transmission system operators who operate it are members in a Continental Europe regional group in the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, [ENTSO-E](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/inside-entsoe/objectives/) [1]. ENTSO-E also includes TSOs operating other related synchronous areas, but they are not covered by this question.\n\nOn January 8, 2021, ENTSO-E reported a system split in Continental Area, which was later classified as an [extensive incident](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/02/26/acer-and-entso-e-investigate-the-8-january-electricity-system-separation/). It was reported as a close call to a \"massive blackout\" in Europe by some ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/green-shift-brings-blackout-risk-to-world-s-biggest-power-grid)).\n\nPrevious time there was a blackout of massive scale in Europe was the [2006 European blackout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_blackout), where 15+ m clients lost power for about 2 hours.\n\nThere also has been notable [wide-scale blackouts in Europe and elsewhere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_power_outages), most recently in [Texas, 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis)\n\nIn 2003, [there was a blackout affecting 56+m people in Italy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Italy_blackout).\n\nIn 2015, [there was a large blackout in Turkey](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-power-idUSKBN0MR0S420150331), causing split from CE [pdf](https://eepublicdownloads.entsoe.eu/clean-documents/SOC%20documents/Regional_Groups_Continental_Europe/20150921_Black_Out_Report_v10_w.pdf)\n\n\n[1] For more reading, see ENTSO-E [news](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/01/15/system-separation-in-the-continental-europe-synchronous-area-on-8-january-2021-update/), [annual report](https://annualreport2019.entsoe.eu/) and [statistical factsheets](https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/statistics-and-data/#statistical-factsheet)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a blackout in more than one country in Continental European Area, affecting total of more than 10 million people for more than 1 hour before January 1, 2023 (UTC).\n\nAccording to ENTSO-E, [Regional Group](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/system-operations/) for Continental synchronous area currently includes Austria, Albania, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark (West), France, Republic of North Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, Montenegro, Nederland, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey (observer member).\n\nAppropriate evidence for resolution criteria having been met include news reports by at least two news agencies such as Reuters, AFP, and AP, preferably supported by later report(s) by ENTSOE https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/. To resolve ambiguities about details, reports from news agencies or national broadcasters from affected countries may also be included.", "fine_print": "I did not find any standard definition for *massive* blackout. Because the context is predisposed to cascading power outages in several countries in the area, this question requires threshold of affecting more than one country, more than 10 million people, and for over 1 hour.\n\nFor example, the 2003 Italy blackout is a borderline case but would resolve yes, as a part of Geneva canton in Switzerland was affected. Turkey 2015 would not, as it affected people in only one country.\n\nIf there are radical changes in the ENTSO-E Continental Europe area membership that would otherwise render question ambiguous, one can use for resolution any synchronous grid involving more than 50% of the currently participating countries.", "post_id": 6694, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672521621.190132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.021884635677719304 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672521621.190132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.021884635677719304 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04539914429705618 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 9.187439308930188, 2.489786939049345, 0.4756632384770577, 0.0, 1.1673917919788417, 0.054067770425164544, 0.17200847607285202, 0.0, 0.14546164288094451, 0.7188465660174799, 0.0, 0.12945173785377634, 0.1691317229795503, 0.051779207412002655, 0.06322994335814815, 0.012750615313996135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02248592739820702, 0.02775801966656217, 0.0, 0.0019319732351326508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014807054349632785, 0.0, 0.17305918230423428, 0.00659673955321026, 0.0, 0.03383492044223947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01127371494146295, 0.08330211214582241, 0.0, 0.014369596090439089, 0.0, 0.0015257314047317206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004147367952591529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008707034755549023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06452395506976416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01807644771542133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10727766658985474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04504395144454423 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.890180476420651, "coverage": 0.9993637673384502, "baseline_score": 51.76514196838656, "spot_peer_score": 6.760252017869756, "peer_archived_score": 12.890180476420651, "baseline_archived_score": 51.76514196838656, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.760252017869756 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672521621.213543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672521621.213543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 201, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Continental European synchronous area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe) is the largest interconnected power grid in the world, with hundreds of millions of customers. Transmission system operators who operate it are members in a Continental Europe regional group in the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, [ENTSO-E](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/inside-entsoe/objectives/) [1]. ENTSO-E also includes TSOs operating other related synchronous areas, but they are not covered by this question.\n\nOn January 8, 2021, ENTSO-E reported a system split in Continental Area, which was later classified as an [extensive incident](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/02/26/acer-and-entso-e-investigate-the-8-january-electricity-system-separation/). It was reported as a close call to a \"massive blackout\" in Europe by some ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/green-shift-brings-blackout-risk-to-world-s-biggest-power-grid)).\n\nPrevious time there was a blackout of massive scale in Europe was the [2006 European blackout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_blackout), where 15+ m clients lost power for about 2 hours.\n\nThere also has been notable [wide-scale blackouts in Europe and elsewhere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_power_outages), most recently in [Texas, 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis)\n\nIn 2003, [there was a blackout affecting 56+m people in Italy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Italy_blackout).\n\nIn 2015, [there was a large blackout in Turkey](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-power-idUSKBN0MR0S420150331), causing split from CE [pdf](https://eepublicdownloads.entsoe.eu/clean-documents/SOC%20documents/Regional_Groups_Continental_Europe/20150921_Black_Out_Report_v10_w.pdf)\n\n\n[1] For more reading, see ENTSO-E [news](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/01/15/system-separation-in-the-continental-europe-synchronous-area-on-8-january-2021-update/), [annual report](https://annualreport2019.entsoe.eu/) and [statistical factsheets](https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/statistics-and-data/#statistical-factsheet)" }, { "id": 6693, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", "short_title": "Andrew Cuomo Still NY Governor on 2021-06-30", "url_title": "Andrew Cuomo Still NY Governor on 2021-06-30", "slug": "andrew-cuomo-still-ny-governor-on-2021-06-30", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-28T02:45:59.304731Z", "published_at": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.231061Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 114, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 288, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6693, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", "created_at": "2021-02-28T02:45:59.304731Z", "open_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-02T15:03:08.502758Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-02T15:03:08.502758Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?*** \n\nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\n\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at https://www.governor.ny.gov/", "post_id": 6693, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625111846.551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 287, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625111846.551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 287, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9802057273452728 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00013090033234910831, 0.0, 0.0, 7.301279494160549e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.3554071265905675e-05, 3.1259052086348655e-05, 0.0, 4.2931121242363145e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8062174775972253e-07, 0.0, 2.8650672340704153e-05, 4.168289331023205e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0473723016161875e-06, 0.0, 9.401226379347832e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015755726567022956, 0.0, 0.00026694708679729783, 5.313590241791024e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023529844862948292, 0.00038289166281553976, 5.547123734662239e-05, 6.823143894418877e-05, 6.188994387620962e-07, 0.0, 0.00015414046098477955, 0.0001015349327486208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06767874454531246, 0.0008349569014522395, 0.0004678064805776881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003558239947638309, 0.0008586080137984792, 0.0012682903242992524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00249534879725346, 0.0006464034251075953, 0.0, 0.003598040644464991, 0.0008315521491826797, 0.002460247649398937, 0.0005966961617435896, 0.0, 0.5386121450755086, 0.003760295799868533, 0.0050556950340644325, 2.4820184305251893e-07, 0.0, 0.1869957102766818, 0.005319508136873343, 0.003586974070515028, 0.0, 0.001238166552634871, 0.0, 0.0019036235184593318, 0.0042994104195948415, 0.0006796790105852931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023477904439613605, 0.0, 0.055063131558574736, 0.0010684252882515323, 0.0, 0.05868449754367496, 0.003148798087129371, 0.01595228309420984, 0.002629203458655552, 0.004882371043835144, 0.13491548478356913, 0.42844307082016125, 0.009547934623446701, 2.202709419593675, 28.629779238999134 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.99200891683749, "coverage": 0.9999800462705097, "baseline_score": 42.070998365682115, "spot_peer_score": 17.462185099111924, "peer_archived_score": 22.99200891683749, "baseline_archived_score": 42.070998365682115, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.462185099111924 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625111846.814668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 287, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625111846.814668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 287, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.010519419698893584, 0.9894805803011064 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1304, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?*** \n\nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\n\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations." }, { "id": 6691, "title": "Will any part of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", "short_title": "Great Britain Under Monarchy in 2075", "url_title": "Great Britain Under Monarchy in 2075", "slug": "great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075", "author_id": 112510, "author_username": "isaacdunn", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-27T09:38:37.474282Z", "published_at": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T21:34:05.512257Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 122, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6691, "title": "Will any part of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", "created_at": "2021-02-27T09:38:37.474282Z", "open_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\n\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\n\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2075, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6691, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760909634.709404, "end_time": 1784945089.569633, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760909634.709404, "end_time": 1784945089.569633, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6659217335942714 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288005.149497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288005.149497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47449015143867734, 0.5255098485613227 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 279, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\n\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\n\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed." }, { "id": 6688, "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", "short_title": "Stripe as largest public offering in 2021?", "url_title": "Stripe as largest public offering in 2021?", "slug": "stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-26T19:38:13.957891Z", "published_at": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.458516Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T18:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T18:15:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6688, "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", "created_at": "2021-02-26T19:38:13.957891Z", "open_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-12T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-12T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T18:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T18:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-29T18:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "#Background\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \n\nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \n\nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.", "resolution_criteria": "#Resolution\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if its valuation by market capitalization is greater than all other valuations by the end of the year. Valuation by market capitalization will be calculated using the last publicly traded stock price at closing on opening day and the total number of shares. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \n\nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6688, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635701103.502136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635701103.502136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.10618871001845177 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4051117336667096, 0.0, 0.9447166344848037, 0.882493535772869, 0.9531625988785561, 0.37655774261625313, 0.4269214684219575, 0.8619310198692309, 0.6678786115797349, 2.416034315927704, 0.8284076835897499, 0.1977505362086976, 2.0298697457308776, 0.051651386754525144, 0.5767976619467323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5137333936687497, 0.3853580111189308, 0.03081720770343554, 0.1923238700640858, 0.0, 0.017210119101531127, 0.0, 0.04228688608058346, 0.02759496933622408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051651767612667654, 0.011600507024289436, 0.0, 0.00662961263907148, 0.0, 0.49539977628774706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02464062427608051, 0.06556399796479304, 0.04773215994418045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038142496490550196, 0.0, 0.0023291363431415532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05692018101548274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.056961597400216, "coverage": 0.9999892776274453, "baseline_score": 57.77955430053727, "spot_peer_score": 52.156902946898555, "peer_archived_score": 13.056961597400216, "baseline_archived_score": 57.77955430053727, "spot_peer_archived_score": 52.156902946898555 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635701103.673328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635701103.673328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9597685077353021, 0.04023149226469796 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 174, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "#Background\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \n\nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \n\nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble." }, { "id": 6663, "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", "short_title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", "url_title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", "slug": "will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-23T11:15:50.630380Z", "published_at": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.750651Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T00:52:11.118816Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T00:52:11.118816Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6663, "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", "created_at": "2021-02-23T11:15:50.630380Z", "open_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-24T19:26:41.185996Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-24T19:26:41.185996Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\n\nAccording to its website:\n\n> MIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\n\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\n\n> At the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \n\nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\n\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \n\nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\n\n[fine-print]\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6663, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762849169.576948, "end_time": 1764576312.38919, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762849169.576948, "end_time": 1764576312.38919, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.5959924613344739 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3739089289484023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8092739871565029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.22668821410124, 0.0, 0.19976240866306647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5613699167225187, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36530349986861427, 1.1236754594732736, 0.8923005811430619, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.03860646978477285, 0.15879807646568847, 0.0, 0.26549232204805623, 0.0, 1.1788560551274152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021350191862830815, 0.5817567632428897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6982345409486013, 0.026429544426075636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10972487483863327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290006.114185, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290006.114185, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4993256236381767, 0.5006743763618233 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 232, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\n\nAccording to its website:\n\n> MIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\n\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\n\n> At the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths." }, { "id": 6660, "title": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Street Voting on UK Zoning Laws by 2025", "url_title": "Street Voting on UK Zoning Laws by 2025", "slug": "street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws-by-2025", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-22T20:24:49.791557Z", "published_at": "2021-02-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.522351Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-26T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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[here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).", "resolution_criteria": "An official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on gov.uk\n\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\n\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n\n- Number of floors\n\n- Plot us", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6660, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720350053.78381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720350053.78381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5494152695957443 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8873410162862754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024756716523811048, 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255, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\n\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf)." }, { "id": 6659, "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?", "short_title": "US House punishes member by 2022-09-03", "url_title": "US House punishes member by 2022-09-03", "slug": "us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03", "author_id": 115375, "author_username": "citizen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-22T16:36:53.351412Z", "published_at": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.454945Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 63, "status": 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"2021-02-22T16:36:53.351412Z", "open_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-28T07:46:40.234854Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-28T07:46:40.234854Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-17T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-17T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-11-17T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<small>Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)</small>\n\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\n\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\n\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\n\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).", "fine_print": "The question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](thehill.com) or [Roll Call](rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\n\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\n\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote.", "post_id": 6659, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630981832.279394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630981832.279394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.37464575152954976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0922898227035347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17659439953213252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32711253673630325, 0.08569614324107964, 0.0, 0.7164903331404135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4378210453658924, 0.0, 1.6978434485283365, 0.27495618647991393, 0.0, 0.537327422693546, 0.0, 0.8480497448434229, 0.0, 0.32141883529314, 0.011393233754605896, 0.0, 2.9045970101581293, 0.0, 0.005712198004389287, 0.039401573390901834, 0.0, 0.8223703088282455, 0.0, 0.758517453696989, 0.5695970358180379, 0.47936058703434736, 0.9386114941731595, 0.38383975653847024, 0.8660455447436057, 1.7749692774450296, 0.1898823084629236, 0.23765729808581193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9140522360925123, 0.0, 0.08098374750753894, 0.0, 0.0631635962506171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045091897032952945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07211529429050076, 0.07854277884728524, 0.0, 0.0033424547903668812, 0.0, 0.027395211953472116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03548284567034182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004411705175538277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012117839732328766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024716391381802813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009159026026701877 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.724884554540447, "coverage": 0.9984365749709213, "baseline_score": -3.108847580788126, "spot_peer_score": -29.98272865432281, "peer_archived_score": 9.724884554540447, "baseline_archived_score": -3.108847580788126, "spot_peer_archived_score": -29.98272865432281 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630981832.301863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630981832.301863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6663503992322316, 0.3336496007677684 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 224, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<small>Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)</small>\n\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\n\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\n\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members)." }, { "id": 6656, "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", "short_title": "Tether to collapse in 2021", "url_title": "Tether to collapse in 2021", "slug": "tether-to-collapse-in-2021", "author_id": 116988, "author_username": "palcu", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-20T23:36:57.575459Z", "published_at": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.640153Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:58:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 186, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6656, "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", "created_at": "2021-02-20T23:36:57.575459Z", "open_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-26T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-26T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T04:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-10T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-10T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.", "resolution_criteria": "The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n\n* Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair.\n* Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days.\n* Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx.\n\n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)", "fine_print": "The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\n\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. 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