Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4980
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Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\n\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6646, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622493856.518075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622493856.518075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.16192360151853255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.45966311553052275, 0.07676244217723824, 0.12621345865094713, 0.0, 0.5238036195357696, 1.3525163791999915, 0.80549953267588, 1.732936307972065, 0.3787158441933177, 0.612609257893771, 0.8634337566585175, 0.8540116845935393, 0.15750452356272215, 1.8877593524948515, 2.047122319104647, 0.22673190929352374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0545307742321855, 1.8911565188927755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8699950410853952, 0.0, 2.659415992233847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004551470800426355, 0.0, 0.02064856782263116, 0.0029982420348446974, 0.5519234751552031, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001648009593620752, 0.9078512781077154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02000917927428745, 0.000615974589918873, 0.0, 0.0021341984025259253, 0.0036645064010513533, 0.0052427672458208625, 0.003186929000102761, 0.0, 0.0007245011671404842, 0.00012614338989262936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003552051306226385, 0.0, 0.007335136410451107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17067450721435354, 0.0016743925345689846, 0.002397315038413529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028694015936094096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022660438791516336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.845702715100398, "coverage": 0.9896429273104985, "baseline_score": 37.412032268297494, "spot_peer_score": -48.39521338172362, "peer_archived_score": 10.845702715100398, "baseline_archived_score": 37.412032268297494, "spot_peer_archived_score": -48.39521338172362 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622493856.587144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622493856.587144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9293943143858124, 0.07060568561418755 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 302, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\n\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident)." }, { "id": 6644, "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "short_title": "Apple to fail to deliver own-silicon Mac Pro", "url_title": "Apple to fail to deliver own-silicon Mac Pro", "slug": "apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac-pro", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-19T21:08:25.635098Z", 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"2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2983, "type": "question_series", "name": "Matthew Yglesias Predicts 2021", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2021-06-01T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.580364Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.810474Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2983, "type": "question_series", "name": "Matthew Yglesias Predicts 2021", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2021-06-01T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.580364Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.810474Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6644, "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-02-19T21:08:25.635098Z", "open_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-21T22:09:19.341882Z", "spot_scoring_time": 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Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \n\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple *will not* release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\n\n***Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?***\n\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on apple.com. 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null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622495978.959958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3672087399246664, 0.6327912600753336 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 6643, "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "short_title": "Apple to release '21 iMac with own silicon", "url_title": "Apple to release '21 iMac with own silicon", "slug": "apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-19T21:07:13.241298Z", "published_at": 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This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction." }, { "id": 6632, "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", "short_title": "Martian Life Discovered by 2050", "url_title": "Martian Life Discovered by 2050", "slug": "martian-life-discovered-by-2050", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-19T17:58:53.040372Z", "published_at": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T21:07:10.784032Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 206, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6632, "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", "created_at": "2021-02-19T17:58:53.040372Z", "open_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-23T03:43:16.735919Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-23T03:43:16.735919Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\n\n> The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\n\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\n\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions.\n\nIf this has not happened before January 1, 2050, this question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6632, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762031220.560772, "end_time": 1769181551.527784, "forecaster_count": 185, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762031220.560772, "end_time": 1769181551.527784, "forecaster_count": 185, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.875, 0.125 ], "means": [ 0.20224838130831196 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6160906319349702, 3.092953818825801, 0.026040585845771257, 1.3874697829251712, 0.5609746264775191, 2.1298747447219517, 0.0064827545844829285, 0.6174186752309885, 0.14978004377493578, 0.6281294166826494, 1.7206370594301537, 0.7107521525820087, 1.7482386586516432, 0.047705695207689254, 0.10731344840609601, 1.680501301152158, 0.0, 0.0004927140493647816, 0.15523737535176263, 0.0, 2.059372082504204, 0.20159984558443422, 0.028678863595759965, 0.21910896352802073, 0.000270211465055455, 1.0831784927142551, 0.04039029832506016, 0.1788814096043349, 0.34405692050388953, 0.0, 1.6601357404297794, 0.01721320435613134, 8.620091016288902e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8711962696940422, 0.0, 0.001092659631793654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3891530163081238, 0.010608652146215043, 0.03166387164956177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8310522220048848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03666838395755778, 0.0005479284346512943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027290573467695284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5272981652765463, 0.0, 0.9639182906653312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02423471236635423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7712008414388034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00101459417275864 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288892.936173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288892.936173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9338429546007768, 0.06615704539922322 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 35, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 446, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\n\n> The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\n\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\n\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"" }, { "id": 6618, "title": "Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", "short_title": "Starlink IPO before 2030", "url_title": "Starlink IPO before 2030", "slug": "starlink-ipo-before-2030", "author_id": 110540, "author_username": "randallburns", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-17T21:21:09.461976Z", "published_at": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.425244Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-14T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-14T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6618, "title": "Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-02-17T21:21:09.461976Z", "open_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-22T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-22T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-14T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-14T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/)\n\nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.", "resolution_criteria": "This will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6618, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763694160.835489, "end_time": 1764634927.201396, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.725 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763694160.835489, "end_time": 1764634927.201396, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.725 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.275, 0.725 ], "means": [ 0.7253394187234851 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.523162379958618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7348260276318626, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0982612864630832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.5909531108839942, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20078651024264613 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287806.057836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287806.057836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2653915462591112, 0.7346084537408888 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 209, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/)\n\nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no." }, { "id": 6616, "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", "short_title": "Cryonics Institute to go bankrupt", "url_title": "Cryonics Institute to go bankrupt", "slug": "cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-17T19:21:13.316786Z", "published_at": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:30:47.394488Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6616, "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", "created_at": "2021-02-17T19:21:13.316786Z", "open_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\n\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\n\n> Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\n\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\n\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\n\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).", "resolution_criteria": "For the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n\n1. The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n\n2. The patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\n\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\n\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.", "post_id": 6616, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759322403.482678, "end_time": 1767993061.736158, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759322403.482678, "end_time": 1767993061.736158, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.17000000000000004, 0.83 ], "means": [ 0.7698481961298498 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7228487183092426, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11064264398533052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2403700099395794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05724278302464458, 0.3899080558880091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9235250802035939, 0.0, 0.1751732796751412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4944981592411779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016764573440571914, 0.0, 0.14006392172911664, 3.1998977010698066, 0.0, 1.3746896342172827, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9377454306389073, 0.0, 0.007369969155267514, 0.2225181815338309, 0.01323943609573642, 0.15246108875578268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6181833794033187 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288937.988318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288937.988318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19350895808990975, 0.8064910419100902 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\n\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\n\n> Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\n\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\n\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\n\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/)." }, { "id": 6615, "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", "short_title": "Alcor to go bankrupt before reviving people", "url_title": "Alcor to go bankrupt before reviving people", "slug": "alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-17T19:20:10.590659Z", "published_at": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:30:52.812707Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6615, "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", "created_at": "2021-02-17T19:20:10.590659Z", "open_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-21T17:27:53.058308Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-21T17:27:53.058308Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\n\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\n\n> Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\n\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\n\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\n\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).", "resolution_criteria": "For the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n\n1. The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n\n2. The patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\n\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\n\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.", "post_id": 6615, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758490242.389151, "end_time": 1769734004.502064, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.622 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758490242.389151, "end_time": 1769734004.502064, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.622 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.378, 0.622 ], "means": [ 0.6419077207925059 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.004474424132665067, 0.0, 0.011157123373592481, 0.0, 0.3469183260877188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079741623456276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06930124042864184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059392891721503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021822720259255364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44181099202797386, 0.0, 0.1061981125451795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6015901690426233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1443947047376297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26235162859644834, 1.221018509073089, 0.9320576437636137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7514325496251095, 0.0, 0.5657748232129947, 0.0, 0.8237414559462055, 0.0, 0.07801632780974366, 0.29365530089148495, 0.0, 0.0021518476613089726, 0.0, 0.0862062439156513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8681173057820424, 0.0, 0.03338091191999331, 0.0, 0.04186615688882034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12971585974003152, 0.0, 0.005849328395348274, 0.14294776347577356, 0.0, 1.090795308533697, 0.01590012308576472, 0.003256133383704309, 0.0, 1.3798611503101177 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288711.774106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288711.774106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.35676833726999524, 0.6432316627300048 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 162, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\n\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\n\n> Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\n\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\n\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\n\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates)." }, { "id": 6608, "title": "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?", "short_title": "Black holes as dark matter", "url_title": "Black holes as dark matter", "slug": "black-holes-as-dark-matter", "author_id": 103600, "author_username": "2e10e122", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-16T14:28:22.047653Z", "published_at": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:35:15.355591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-06-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6608, "title": "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?", "created_at": "2021-02-16T14:28:22.047653Z", "open_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-22T04:10:00.063393Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-22T04:10:00.063393Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-06-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\n\n> a hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\n\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\n\n> a form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\n\nHowever,\n\n> dark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\n\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between \\(10^{14}\\)-\\(10^{19}\\) kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.\n\nThis question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.", "fine_print": "The scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol outlined in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).\n\nThe question posed to the experts will be \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\"\n\nThe sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories \"Astrophysics of Galaxies\", \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\", and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology\".\n\nIf the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods.", "post_id": 6608, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762245304.894333, "end_time": 1764348684.262048, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762245304.894333, "end_time": 1764348684.262048, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06421914327396447 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.8571116201296354, 1.0001805804080888, 2.592501389886025, 1.2088207842428127, 1.5043040082366255, 0.6326680595244999, 0.6905911479711144, 0.3798228881543749, 0.0, 2.8740509513439334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09963482656708067, 0.0910103266748584, 0.051045984867428, 0.7528693763341386, 0.0, 0.3356528321295896, 0.0, 0.07558440864786083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05647213919671424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041436542674184174, 0.008989210862367118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001034323308801349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288087.286745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288087.286745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9896033592645794, 0.010396640735420591 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 171, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\n\n> a hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\n\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\n\n> a form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\n\nHowever,\n\n> dark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\n\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between \\(10^{14}\\)-\\(10^{19}\\) kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV)." }, { "id": 6604, "title": "Will annual US inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?", "short_title": "US Hyperinflation Before 2050", "url_title": "US Hyperinflation Before 2050", "slug": "us-hyperinflation-before-2050", "author_id": 105656, "author_username": "Jotto", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-15T23:54:45.650500Z", "published_at": "2021-08-14T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T19:43:11.239757Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-14T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-08-14T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 111, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Hyperinflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation) events have happened before in a number of countries.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers ([CPI-U](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL)) has an annual growth rate of at least 100% for any full calendar year before January 1, 2050.\n\nIf the US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) does not report complete data in the 2020 to 2050 period, another credible source may be selected by Metaculus, or the question may resolve as **Ambiguous** at their discretion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6604, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763667780.583122, "end_time": 1765403521.9585, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763667780.583122, "end_time": 1765403521.9585, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.08812556594745677 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5719775899290349, 1.4519030069486938, 0.925644135339999, 1.4616744192207993, 2.054420098851321, 2.0994325140453785, 0.38675196459449634, 1.3036407202111182, 0.08611494246862797, 1.7920945803042918, 2.0692329757277395, 1.275174134742464, 0.316908873082292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8591808876225597, 0.0, 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"centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9883949954561985, 0.011605004543801577 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 230, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Hyperinflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation) events have happened before in a number of countries." }, { "id": 6603, "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?", "short_title": "Autonomous vehicles in LVCC Loop before 2023", "url_title": "Autonomous vehicles in LVCC Loop before 2023", "slug": "autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-before-2023", "author_id": 110540, "author_username": "randallburns", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-15T23:52:25.830044Z", "published_at": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.118760Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:50:00Z", "open_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6603, "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-02-15T23:52:25.830044Z", "open_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-04-04T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-04-04T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T17:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\n\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \n\n\nFrom the article above:\n \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\n\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\n\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\n\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\n\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\n\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \n\nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6603, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634337255.717334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1634337255.717334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19128221733375936 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08804006713675029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48237716233471034, 0.030784600481361255, 0.0, 0.0, 1.124330914610896, 2.2479202387238377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7288213086725668, 1.2409513866973074, 0.6716766914738247, 0.0, 0.5856018758849422, 0.04225147949949812, 0.9443799431441469, 0.35236720237291363, 0.11981076312780951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4387232613217865, 0.011325021621769293, 0.0, 0.3111503600248017, 0.0, 0.09464378440008571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2511459123085843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9253192545386865, 0.0, 0.5418079877847178, 0.0, 0.017752108957266952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14984332909134115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06462956491704921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.951888385182388, "coverage": 0.9996266786408341, "baseline_score": 73.60930987528782, "spot_peer_score": 27.380024662708735, "peer_archived_score": 13.951888385182388, "baseline_archived_score": 73.60930987528782, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.380024662708735 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634337255.735332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1634337255.735332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8994200748215935, 0.10057992517840654 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. 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[Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers with testing using automated systems [planned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/) later on in 2021. Determination of autonomous operation will use criteria similar to this [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/).\n\nThe LVCC project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment. This question will determine if such a feat is being replicated.\n\n**Will TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop <2030?**\n\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2030, The Boring Company page indicates two autonomous transit system projects completed outside the Las Vegas Metro area with more than 15 miles each of Tunnels. Each system must demonstrate carrying more than 1000 passengers per day and operate autonomously for over 30 days.\n\nOperation should be supported by press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Washington Post or another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) posted to the discussion section below. 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"type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. \n\n\n> A “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for 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