Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5000
{ "count": 6400, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5020", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4980", "results": [ { "id": 6558, "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", "short_title": "Working Alcubierre-like FTL drive by 2100", "url_title": "Working Alcubierre-like FTL drive by 2100", "slug": "working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-13T06:11:28.242576Z", "published_at": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:28:45.819114Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6558, "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", "created_at": "2021-02-13T06:11:28.242576Z", "open_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-28T14:51:39.721905Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-28T14:51:39.721905Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\n\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\n\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\n\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\n\n***Will a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\n\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6558, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762363715.513428, "end_time": 1863268169.955474, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762363715.513428, "end_time": 1863268169.955474, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.06747718336322116 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.6028055580045246, 4.0738471932083815, 1.5767261038230078, 0.0, 0.748017059243288, 3.8549071456360338, 0.0, 0.940527522258481, 0.019395540998817004, 0.0, 0.7026145842919997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4044436408528118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37747527053912144, 0.0, 0.021786738318048823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011463879307081098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11243806167157062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15554853847505667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2844637239593917 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290252.553249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290252.553249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9923341401357109, 0.0076658598642891495 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 157, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 6557, "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", "short_title": "1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", "url_title": "1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", "slug": "1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-13T05:31:07.230856Z", "published_at": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.932477Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:50:08.610000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:50:08.610000Z", "open_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6557, "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-02-13T05:31:07.230856Z", "open_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-21T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-21T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:50:08.610000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:50:08.610000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-30T15:50:08.610000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\n\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\n\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\n\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\n\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6557, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622499720.522101, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622499720.522101, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.13887764301878086 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.007683132160872665, 0.0, 0.14475096780126365, 0.6039843306575171, 0.16049487856813402, 0.7802828173439227, 0.2608367308168142, 0.3181778223426147, 0.010512340272192312, 3.3234184991271456, 1.355299641824218, 0.0, 0.6872184256913908, 0.5296608745347693, 1.5725432531245618, 0.6169591737742524, 0.2645571001306608, 0.9877611533753257, 0.0, 1.3823616398982561, 1.124645165652313, 0.0, 0.004715380590217308, 0.0, 0.11713822208354768, 0.0, 0.0007576017002229459, 0.18184291418632875, 0.0, 0.0011463879307081098, 0.22828764612479718, 0.12213964696863193, 0.08006329129283567, 0.008904031237728248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.421921860253641, "coverage": 0.999733688390633, "baseline_score": 72.46381246294855, "spot_peer_score": -0.9972116648959664, "peer_archived_score": 1.421921860253641, "baseline_archived_score": 72.46381246294855, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.9972116648959664 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622499720.56362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622499720.56362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.94195079976532, 0.058049200234679965 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 150, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\n\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\n\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\n\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak." }, { "id": 6554, "title": "Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?", "short_title": "Astral Codex Ten mentions this Question", "url_title": "Astral Codex Ten mentions this Question", "slug": "astral-codex-ten-mentions-this-question", "author_id": 106142, "author_username": "AABoyles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-12T21:17:30.772259Z", "published_at": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.192393Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-02T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-02T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T22:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T22:20:00Z", "open_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6554, "title": "Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-02-12T21:17:30.772259Z", "open_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-07-02T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-07-02T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T22:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T22:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-02T22:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-02T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following his [public re-entry to the web](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/youre-probably-wondering-why-ive), blogger Scott Alexander has started a routine series of posts he calls [\"Metaculus Monday\"](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/metaculus-monday). He's taken the first two of these to review Metaculus on the [near future of COVID-19](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/metaculus-monday), and [longer-term futures of Artificial Intelligence](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/metaculus-monday-2821). Perhaps a future post will mention this question!", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if either:\n\n* the title or question text of this question is mentioned\n* the URL of this question is included\n\n...in the text of an Astral Codex Ten post.\n\nA substack comment will not suffice for a positive resolution, even if that comment is authored by Scott Alexander.", "fine_print": "If the question title or text is present but obscured (such as being incorrectly transcribed), this is sufficient to resolve positively.\n\nIt does not need to be a \"Metaculus Monday\" post: any post on Astral Codex Ten in 2021 may include positively-resolving content.", "post_id": 6554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1633144076.871392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1633144076.871392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5289664971968968 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012461046076939902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028001816834561364, 0.06768491944159849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4133951069475082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36548764200421463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032432922868876357, 0.00149289187086475, 1.3957558776055405, 0.0063304658603344135, 0.0, 0.4578159594265775, 0.0, 1.026021245451632, 1.391430387885218, 0.05569828503798298, 0.0, 0.33596314969335567, 1.8044722500145336, 1.0111033657325847, 0.003961524713566476, 1.5502752322156605, 3.0582391521096914, 0.8342815335358507, 1.1238943133752064, 0.23107928024379015, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8559364261858784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1564245607209212, 0.0, 0.2425030713770544, 0.8677081652830698, 0.0, 0.25755362780572283, 0.0, 0.4631356172167983, 0.05239206843449304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02294876372005778, 0.0006664662732648743, 0.028465057377240626, 0.0, 0.001162523196727986, 0.0, 0.6142033151133104, 0.0, 0.004802382209163591, 0.0, 0.0009510106426892298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03756522271512681, 0.0, 0.007456100477309425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.648504739129013, "coverage": 0.9996802241488688, "baseline_score": 25.82771110084112, "spot_peer_score": 1.141453548896118, "peer_archived_score": 5.648504739129013, "baseline_archived_score": 25.82771110084112, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.141453548896118 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1633144076.903065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1633144076.903065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4773255660125528, 0.5226744339874472 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 254, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following his [public re-entry to the web](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/youre-probably-wondering-why-ive), blogger Scott Alexander has started a routine series of posts he calls [\"Metaculus Monday\"](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/metaculus-monday). He's taken the first two of these to review Metaculus on the [near future of COVID-19](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/metaculus-monday), and [longer-term futures of Artificial Intelligence](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/metaculus-monday-2821). Perhaps a future post will mention this question!" }, { "id": 6551, "title": "Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?", "short_title": "US vaccination rate exceeds 3M daily doses", "url_title": "US vaccination rate exceeds 3M daily doses", "slug": "us-vaccination-rate-exceeds-3m-daily-doses", "author_id": 115982, "author_username": "taskaryan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-12T18:07:13.156976Z", "published_at": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.549372Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-04-04T13:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-04-04T13:05:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6551, "title": "Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-02-12T18:07:13.156976Z", "open_time": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-01T02:30:53.200991Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-01T02:30:53.200991Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-04-04T13:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-04-04T13:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-04-04T13:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to \"yes\" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to \"no\" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6551, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1616207146.317911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1616207146.317911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7730889430601907 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7396417846986983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2234714783160812, 0.46509933495251876, 0.8927508051498111, 0.13717490894663273, 0.49680014682221674, 0.0, 0.3542447088992047, 1.2519599207239165, 0.0, 0.277551768288352, 0.0, 0.0, 1.790152972680265, 0.07793676870444763, 0.5843051095475567, 1.3965005963932682, 0.0, 1.007785899828921, 0.20852758764097454, 0.16824568062905945, 0.047802726739546664, 0.0, 0.2610622600205419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42052548288015196, 0.0, 0.2622994578081298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008376459204076786 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.3987364399461392, "coverage": 0.998508083225554, "baseline_score": 67.26611095421346, "spot_peer_score": 6.807603436555154, "peer_archived_score": 0.3987364399461392, "baseline_archived_score": 67.26611095421346, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.807603436555154 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1616207146.401428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1616207146.401428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.16962784208396997, 0.83037215791603 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 138, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question." }, { "id": 6548, "title": "Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?", "short_title": "J&J vaccine issued EUA before 2022?", "url_title": "J&J vaccine issued EUA before 2022?", "slug": "jj-vaccine-issued-eua-before-2022", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-12T12:11:59.439233Z", "published_at": "2021-02-12T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.731635Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-12T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-02-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-27T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-12T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6548, "title": "Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?", "created_at": "2021-02-12T12:11:59.439233Z", "open_time": "2021-02-12T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-12T21:55:15.135794Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-12T21:55:15.135794Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-27T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-27T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The single-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04505722) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE, has enrolled [45,000 adult participants](https://www.jnj.com/innovation/questions-about-johnson-johnson-investigational-covid-19-vaccine) in [multiple countries](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-initiates-pivotal-global-phase-3-clinical-trial-of-janssens-covid-19-vaccine-candidate). \n\nOn 29 January, Johnson & Johnson [reported interim results](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial) from the ENSEMBLE trial, which includes 72% efficacy in the US and 66% overall efficacy against moderate to severe COVID-19.\n\nOn 4 February, Johnson & Johnson [announced](https://www.janssen.com/johnson-johnson-announces-submission-application-us-fda-emergency-use-authorization-its) that it had submitted an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requesting [Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) Later on 4 February, the FDA [scheduled a meeting](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-announces-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-janssen-biotech-incs?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery) of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) for 26 February 2021. The purpose of the VRBPAC meeting is to have a [\"public discussion ... about the data submitted in support of safety and effectiveness of Janssen Biotech Inc.’s COVID-19 vaccine ... help ensure that the public has a clear understanding of the scientific data and information that FDA will evaluate in order to make a decision about whether to authorize this vaccine.\"](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-announces-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-janssen-biotech-incs?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery)\n\nFor the two SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for which the FDA has already issued EUAs, the EUA was issued the day after the VRBPAC meeting. The VRBPAC meeting on the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine occurred on [10 December 2020](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) and the FDA issued an EUA for it on [11 December](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine). The VRBPAC meeting on the Moderna vaccine occurred on [17 December 2020](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) and the FDA issued an EUA for it on [18 December](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves on the basis of an announcement by the US FDA that it has issued an EUA for the one-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Such an EUA should be issued no later than 31 December 2021", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6548, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614474588.65171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614474588.65171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9755144020335215 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037945794224233387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017101445461516773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35775041776788324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060189962532687886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8788826202526011, 0.0, 0.005715929431113761, 0.0, 0.002996681779674101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04304433666993575, 0.17360308337573993, 12.583260361287593 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.4254986164597996, "coverage": 0.32966884832952936, "baseline_score": 32.24281841906674, "spot_peer_score": 4.020072988669969, "peer_archived_score": 1.4254986164597996, "baseline_archived_score": 32.24281841906674, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.020072988669969 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614455587.477947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614455587.477947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.015705349061096996, 0.984294650938903 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The single-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04505722) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE, has enrolled [45,000 adult participants](https://www.jnj.com/innovation/questions-about-johnson-johnson-investigational-covid-19-vaccine) in [multiple countries](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-initiates-pivotal-global-phase-3-clinical-trial-of-janssens-covid-19-vaccine-candidate). \n\nOn 29 January, Johnson & Johnson [reported interim results](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial) from the ENSEMBLE trial, which includes 72% efficacy in the US and 66% overall efficacy against moderate to severe COVID-19.\n\nOn 4 February, Johnson & Johnson [announced](https://www.janssen.com/johnson-johnson-announces-submission-application-us-fda-emergency-use-authorization-its) that it had submitted an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requesting [Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) Later on 4 February, the FDA [scheduled a meeting](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-announces-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-janssen-biotech-incs?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery) of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) for 26 February 2021. The purpose of the VRBPAC meeting is to have a [\"public discussion ... about the data submitted in support of safety and effectiveness of Janssen Biotech Inc.’s COVID-19 vaccine ... help ensure that the public has a clear understanding of the scientific data and information that FDA will evaluate in order to make a decision about whether to authorize this vaccine.\"](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-announces-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-janssen-biotech-incs?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery)\n\nFor the two SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for which the FDA has already issued EUAs, the EUA was issued the day after the VRBPAC meeting. The VRBPAC meeting on the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine occurred on [10 December 2020](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) and the FDA issued an EUA for it on [11 December](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine). The VRBPAC meeting on the Moderna vaccine occurred on [17 December 2020](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) and the FDA issued an EUA for it on [18 December](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine)." }, { "id": 6546, "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", "short_title": "Impossible Food's heme banned by 2023", "url_title": "Impossible Food's heme banned by 2023", "slug": "impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-11T23:17:08.624326Z", "published_at": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.487751Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6546, "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-02-11T23:17:08.624326Z", "open_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-18T15:22:10.184012Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-18T15:22:10.184012Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\n\n> Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\n\n\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\n\n> The Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\n\n> In a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n\n> “This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\n\n> The novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \n\nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\n\n> a 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\n\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n\n* The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n\n* Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\n\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6546, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622528289.466273, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622528289.466273, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07138058498907686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04896551112574321, 0.2274691399399458, 0.2408457820494807, 0.7288213086725668, 5.012598130002407, 1.9478469114412866, 0.0, 0.8802688672644542, 0.5279104231598012, 0.0899854961455301, 0.036208439996911576, 0.0, 0.02593106589452041, 0.1669059266791499, 1.4115941212004874, 0.030784600481361255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0216015677189824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014340426232757577, 0.011325021621769293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04225147949949812, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.11959723650933, "coverage": 0.9985714558408822, "baseline_score": 79.91134552297352, "spot_peer_score": -0.798513504812693, "peer_archived_score": 8.11959723650933, "baseline_archived_score": 79.91134552297352, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.798513504812693 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622528289.63167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622528289.63167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9659303271099487, 0.03406967289005129 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\n\n> Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\n\n\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\n\n> The Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\n\n> In a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n\n> “This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\n\n> The novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \n\nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\n\n> a 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\n\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf)." }, { "id": 6522, "title": "Will there be broad scientific consensus that herpes viruses are implicated in the pathogenesis of dementia, before 2040?", "short_title": "Will we have evidence that herpes causes dementia by 2040?", "url_title": "Will we have evidence that herpes causes dementia by 2040?", "slug": "will-we-have-evidence-that-herpes-causes-dementia-by-2040", "author_id": 112164, "author_username": "JamesEvans", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-10T01:40:43.521963Z", "published_at": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T21:28:42.556793Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-29T16:25:13.783184Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-30T15:24:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6522, "title": "Will there be broad scientific consensus that herpes viruses are implicated in the pathogenesis of dementia, before 2040?", "created_at": "2021-02-10T01:40:43.521963Z", "open_time": "2025-03-30T15:24:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Research has examined whether herpes viruses, including HSV-1/2, varicella zoster virus, and others play a causal role in dementia.\n\nEpidemiological evidence from Taiwan suggests that herpes infections increase the risk of dementia.\n\n* [Herpes Zoster and Dementia: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study\n ](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29244265/)\n* [Increased risk of dementia following herpes zoster ophthalmicus\n ](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0188490)\n\nSome reports indicate that antiviral medications targeting herpes may reduce the risk of dementia in infected patients.\n\n* [Anti-herpetic Medications and Reduced Risk of Dementia in Patients with Herpes Simplex Virus Infections-a Nationwide, Population-Based Cohort Study in Taiwan](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29488144/)\n\nHowever, no scientific consensus has been reached as of 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2040, at least one of the following has happened:\n\n1. A meta-analysis or a clinical trial with ≥80% statistical power has demonstrated that anti-herpetic therapy (e.g., antiviral therapy or a prophylactic vaccine) significantly reduces dementia incidence or progression as measured by the adjusted mean change on a validated cognitive/functional scale (e.g., CDR-SB, ADAS-Cog). The finding must be statistically significant at the 0.05 level.\n2. A major health or research organization (e.g., WHO, NIH, Alzheimer's Association) or a widely cited consensus review has explicitly announced that herpes infection is causal in dementia pathology.", "fine_print": "Statements by a health organization that indicate that herpes *might* be causal in dementia, but that include significant uncertainty, will not be sufficient to resolve this question.", "post_id": 6522, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760909311.872316, "end_time": 1789943768.151149, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760909311.872316, "end_time": 1789943768.151149, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.5513787137846503 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Research has examined whether herpes viruses, including HSV-1/2, varicella zoster virus, and others play a causal role in dementia.\n\nEpidemiological evidence from Taiwan suggests that herpes infections increase the risk of dementia.\n\n* [Herpes Zoster and Dementia: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study\n ](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29244265/)\n* [Increased risk of dementia following herpes zoster ophthalmicus\n ](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0188490)\n\nSome reports indicate that antiviral medications targeting herpes may reduce the risk of dementia in infected patients.\n\n* [Anti-herpetic Medications and Reduced Risk of Dementia in Patients with Herpes Simplex Virus Infections-a Nationwide, Population-Based Cohort Study in Taiwan](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29488144/)\n\nHowever, no scientific consensus has been reached as of 2024." }, { "id": 6512, "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", "short_title": "UPenn Campus Alert level 4 in spring 2021", "url_title": "UPenn Campus Alert level 4 in spring 2021", "slug": "upenn-campus-alert-level-4-in-spring-2021", "author_id": 116721, "author_username": "sprout", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-09T20:55:57.381507Z", "published_at": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.389555Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-12T08:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-12T08:59:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6512, "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", "created_at": "2021-02-09T20:55:57.381507Z", "open_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-12T08:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-12T08:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-05-12T08:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester).", "resolution_criteria": "The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6512, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614647329.834859, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614647329.834859, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.32337047878622516 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29360034512635746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08615804177817497, 0.0, 0.15685721197324565, 0.7228487183092426, 0.34147591640512814, 0.0, 0.0, 2.00764478763595, 0.14006392172911664, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9729188722391565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04232921962320499, 1.9359996647793392, 0.645369951022288, 0.0, 1.0, 0.8520233747574918, 0.06594039540813919, 1.2750855450025855, 0.0, 0.23407922352099572, 0.0, 0.3089887342628301, 0.05106750531914356, 0.007369969155267514, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.0109299647338, "coverage": 0.9685232182058392, "baseline_score": 16.3863444896593, "spot_peer_score": 12.019701844598272, "peer_archived_score": 18.0109299647338, "baseline_archived_score": 16.3863444896593, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.019701844598272 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614647329.860687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614647329.860687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7457434087649321, 0.25425659123506794 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 120, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester)." }, { "id": 6509, "title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of \"weak\" Artificial General Intelligence?", "short_title": "Control Problem Solution Before AGI", "url_title": "Control Problem Solution Before AGI", "slug": "control-problem-solution-before-agi", "author_id": 117256, "author_username": "benjamin.46824682", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-09T13:29:21.984966Z", "published_at": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T18:47:22.369462Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 217, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1313, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Progress Essay Contest", "slug": "ai-fortified-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/neural_net.png", "prize_pool": "6500.00", "start_date": "2022-02-08T13:02:52Z", "close_date": "2022-04-16T15:54:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the AI Progress Essay Contest! Metaculus aims to support accurate forecasting of and preparation for the impacts of transformative AI.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T12:32:39.779947Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T00:52:11.118816Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": 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"slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6509, "title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of \"weak\" Artificial General Intelligence?", "created_at": "2021-02-09T13:29:21.984966Z", "open_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From wikipedia \"the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.\"\n\n[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps ) is an introductory video.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before the public demonstration of \"weak\" artificial general intelligence.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"weak\" AGI will be defined as meeting the qualifications in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), the terms of which are reproduced in the fine print below.", "fine_print": "A \"weak\" Artificial General Intelligence should be capable fo the following:\n\n* Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n\n* Able to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n\n* Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n\n* Be able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \n\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system *not* simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)", "post_id": 6509, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762973232.117357, "end_time": 1770170155.297118, "forecaster_count": 212, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762973232.117357, "end_time": 1770170155.297118, "forecaster_count": 212, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03975918824471239 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.645583870613085, 9.988833267617526, 1.069522915551584, 1.8426692459736413, 1.0366371082082448, 3.120590303383989, 0.04388579131484533, 0.2032291773651449, 0.015462876561124592, 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"2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 176, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6508, "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", "created_at": "2021-02-09T01:57:31.483692Z", "open_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-16T19:40:23.704626Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-16T19:40:23.704626Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.", "resolution_criteria": "After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n\n(*2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.*)", "fine_print": "1. We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges.\n2. If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n3. All prices are in USD.\n4. Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used.", "post_id": 6508, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703180342.860784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 176, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703180342.860784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 176, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.44899278311165985 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9369160547641803, 0.0, 0.2101360523567717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009481658849021293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01946533459818547, 0.5403039490835384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6023665698724388, 0.1926281005004819, 0.0, 0.5465389198132221, 0.0, 0.2362701029241336, 0.0, 0.11872202583179947, 0.0, 0.07506349606734175, 1.4193523403498376, 0.0, 0.0035149637892253104, 0.2516175051099845, 0.0, 0.058227848508744295, 0.6562151424481751, 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stock market." }, { "id": 6507, "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", "short_title": "Discovery of gravitational wave background", "url_title": "Discovery of gravitational wave background", "slug": "discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background", "author_id": 112164, "author_username": "JamesEvans", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-08T23:48:26.620922Z", "published_at": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.755142Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6507, "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", "created_at": "2021-02-08T23:48:26.620922Z", "open_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\n\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately \\(10^{-22}\\) seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\n\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6507, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740023568.605262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5636387655023803 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740023568.605262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5636387655023803 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5289354213767848 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5034091159504126, 0.3394722656914194, 1.639245523073896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289533.187496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289533.187496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5837166818622647, 0.41628331813773534 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\n\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately \\(10^{-22}\\) seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\n\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?" }, { "id": 6506, "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland before 2031?", "short_title": "Ten Times More Abortions in Poland by 2031", "url_title": "Ten Times More Abortions in Poland by 2031", "slug": "ten-times-more-abortions-in-poland-by-2031", "author_id": 116324, "author_username": "zc", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-08T22:56:08.187009Z", "published_at": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.996554Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6506, "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland before 2031?", "created_at": "2021-02-08T22:56:08.187009Z", "open_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-24T06:33:05.557983Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-24T06:33:05.557983Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\n\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\n\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n\n * danger to the life or health of the mother\n * high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus\n * suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest\n\nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\n\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\n\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\n\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) is at least 11,100, according to statistics by Polish government agencies.\n\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\n\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6506, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761067496.784572, "end_time": 1765624536.89525, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761067496.784572, "end_time": 1765624536.89525, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5170290804201342 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4868057477542032, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03279680079640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1755190576471133, 0.9391819328792491, 0.0013798417812875229, 0.06663686154666806, 0.5964945187819407, 0.02334530670111975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26746159284949556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39155177670466657, 0.003138745684197452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.773871141848604, 0.5110984724920273, 1.7772484228788719, 0.423766971031684, 0.0, 1.5321338050949622, 0.7349246550226778, 1.2466100808574843, 0.0, 0.001896113161810545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20758906898545676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016130931261017813, 0.6854688832724203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08477020296152729, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24016297019401875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014145727934610995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0450032524825526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34239276344906866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8816217886564627 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289583.93268, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289583.93268, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7468152580594571, 0.2531847419405428 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 208, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\n\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\n\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n\n * danger to the life or health of the mother\n * high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus\n * suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest\n\nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\n\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\n\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\n\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist." }, { "id": 6502, "title": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?", "short_title": "Javascript's Dominance in 2030", "url_title": "Javascript's Dominance in 2030", "slug": "javascripts-dominance-in-2030", "author_id": 111805, "author_username": "galen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-08T06:19:50.230823Z", "published_at": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:53:25.747609Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-27T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6502, "title": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?", "created_at": "2021-02-08T06:19:50.230823Z", "open_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-11T06:51:03.689593Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-11T06:51:03.689593Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-27T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\n\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if:\n\n1. A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released,\n2. Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and\n3. In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "If Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\n\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a **2030** survey must be publicly reported.", "post_id": 6502, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763109186.826127, "end_time": 1764513116.575939, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763109186.826127, "end_time": 1764513116.575939, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.39081264326084675 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2425126729529749, 0.0, 0.6292630324472235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7439651887814431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.979926445623223, 0.0, 0.2920067509037526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7525284021426434, 0.024521526059856833, 0.0, 0.14772949571888752, 0.0, 0.8600494355428064, 0.13294920078905473, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 2.2262710361982485, 0.18119093168767203, 0.4925280170881631, 0.06665641869459375, 0.0, 1.239022428056328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11935795955623035, 1.0237366806461037, 0.0, 0.02556336368456456, 0.07538866801196019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8302071950209425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4159242870145984, 0.22045724352962418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039003561466750214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.05148079025128712, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288462.290212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288462.290212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6521415770713469, 0.3478584229286531 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 216, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\n\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:" }, { "id": 6498, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?", "short_title": "Will SN10 land?", "url_title": "Will SN10 land?", "slug": "will-sn10-land", "author_id": 116468, "author_username": "chrisjbillington", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-07T02:30:28.043470Z", "published_at": "2021-02-09T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.987573Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-09T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-02-20T02:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-20T02:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-03T23:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-03T23:27:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-09T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 133, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6498, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?", "created_at": "2021-02-07T02:30:28.043470Z", "open_time": "2021-02-09T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-10T07:39:49.131405Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-10T07:39:49.131405Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-03T23:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-03T23:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-03-03T23:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-20T02:29:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-20T02:29:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "SpaceX is currently developing [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) - a two-stage, reusable launch system intended to one day bring humans to Mars.\n\nOn December 8th 2020, Starship SN8 was the first SpaceX Starship prototype to fly to a height of at least 1 km.\n\nOn Feburary 2nd 2021, Starship SN9 was the second prototype to do so.\n\nBoth SN8 and SN9 failed to land successfully, exploding on impact. \n\nThe cause of SN8's failure is thought to be [fuel tank underpressure](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1336809767574982658), causing oxygen-rich combustion to overheat and destroy one engine.\n\nThe cause of SN9's failure was that one of the two Raptor engines used for the attempted landing failed to re-light for the landing burn.\n\nWhen asked why SN9 did not re-light all three engines, and subsequently shut-off one of them if all three re-lit successfully, Elon Musk responded that [It was foolish of us not to start 3 engines & immediately shut down 1, as 2 are needed to land](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1357422126161145856).\n\nThe Starship SN10 prototype is currently on the launch pad being fitted with Raptor engines, and [is expected to fly soon](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/).\n\n***Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if the Starship SN10 prototype flies to an altitude of at least 1km and successfully lands.\n\nIf Starship SN10 has not flown yet by the resolution date, this question resolves ambiguous.\n\nIf Starship SN10 is destroyed without flying to an altitude of at least 1km, or if SpaceX announces that it does not intend to fly SN10 after all, then this question resolves negative.\n\nThe landing will be considered successful or unsuccessful if it is described as such by SpaceX or Elon Musk (they do not need to use those exact words), if neither comments on the success of the landing, then by two reliable media sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6498, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1613781482.934784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1613781482.934784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 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"scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-25T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-28T09:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-28T09:53:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-05T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6492, "title": "Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?", "created_at": "2021-02-05T13:52:40.603876Z", "open_time": "2021-02-05T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-06T00:31:45.685993Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-06T00:31:45.685993Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-28T09:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-28T09:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-28T09:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-25T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-25T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The single-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04505722) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE, has enrolled [45,000 adult participants](https://www.jnj.com/innovation/questions-about-johnson-johnson-investigational-covid-19-vaccine) in [multiple countries](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-initiates-pivotal-global-phase-3-clinical-trial-of-janssens-covid-19-vaccine-candidate). \n\nOn 29 January, Johnson & Johnson [reported interim results](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial) from the ENSEMBLE trial, which includes 72% efficacy in the US and 66% overall efficacy against moderate to severe COVID-19.\n\nOn 4 February, Johnson & Johnson [announced](https://www.janssen.com/johnson-johnson-announces-submission-application-us-fda-emergency-use-authorization-its) that it had submitted an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requesting [Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) Later on 4 February, the FDA [scheduled a meeting](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-announces-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-janssen-biotech-incs?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery) of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) for 26 February 2021. The purpose of the VRBPAC meeting is to have a [\"public discussion ... about the data submitted in support of safety and effectiveness of Janssen Biotech Inc.’s COVID-19 vaccine ... help ensure that the public has a clear understanding of the scientific data and information that FDA will evaluate in order to make a decision about whether to authorize this vaccine.\"](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-announces-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-janssen-biotech-incs?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery)\n\nFor the two SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for which the FDA has already issued EUAs, the EUA was issued the day after the VRBPAC meeting. The VRBPAC meeting on the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine occurred on [10 December 2020](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) and the FDA issued an EUA for it on [11 December](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine). The VRBPAC meeting on the Moderna vaccine occurred on [17 December 2020](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) and the FDA issued an EUA for it on [18 December](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves on the basis of an announcement by the US FDA that it has issued an EUA for the one-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Such an EUA should be issued no more than one week after the date of the VRBPAC meeting (no later than 11:59PM EST on 5 March) to count toward resolving this question positively.\n\nIf the FDA reschedules the VRBPAC meeting, this resolves ambiguously. If the FDA issues an EUA before the VRBPAC meeting, this resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6492, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614288005.495104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614288005.495104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9411476882347233 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00887455477665474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001645879663998067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001352579382475488, 0.0039784427831817725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3844374202740883, 0.028794611337204092, 0.0, 0.170989411581081, 0.1646386786371256, 0.07177470587056692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17587039640491753, 0.0, 0.05022630295492274, 0.9154046948667615, 0.0, 1.2618920571790038, 0.6638785456215086, 1.8480602822654553, 0.797450728310781, 0.184690898756774, 6.420625725755176, 2.249818553874013, 1.8179264391760732, 0.9277588391019082, 3.0719252571695503 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.060057986953255, "coverage": 0.9997785578631594, "baseline_score": 86.90918477282514, "spot_peer_score": 10.916104830624512, "peer_archived_score": 4.060057986953255, "baseline_archived_score": 86.90918477282514, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.916104830624512 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614288005.597175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614288005.597175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03650125965687545, 0.9634987403431245 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 325, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The single-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04505722) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE, has enrolled [45,000 adult participants](https://www.jnj.com/innovation/questions-about-johnson-johnson-investigational-covid-19-vaccine) in [multiple countries](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-initiates-pivotal-global-phase-3-clinical-trial-of-janssens-covid-19-vaccine-candidate). \n\nOn 29 January, Johnson & Johnson [reported interim results](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial) from the ENSEMBLE trial, which includes 72% efficacy in the US and 66% overall efficacy against moderate to severe COVID-19.\n\nOn 4 February, Johnson & Johnson [announced](https://www.janssen.com/johnson-johnson-announces-submission-application-us-fda-emergency-use-authorization-its) that it had submitted an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requesting [Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) Later on 4 February, the FDA [scheduled a meeting](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-announces-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-janssen-biotech-incs?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery) of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) for 26 February 2021. The purpose of the VRBPAC meeting is to have a [\"public discussion ... about the data submitted in support of safety and effectiveness of Janssen Biotech Inc.’s COVID-19 vaccine ... help ensure that the public has a clear understanding of the scientific data and information that FDA will evaluate in order to make a decision about whether to authorize this vaccine.\"](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-announces-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-janssen-biotech-incs?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery)\n\nFor the two SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for which the FDA has already issued EUAs, the EUA was issued the day after the VRBPAC meeting. The VRBPAC meeting on the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine occurred on [10 December 2020](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) and the FDA issued an EUA for it on [11 December](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine). The VRBPAC meeting on the Moderna vaccine occurred on [17 December 2020](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) and the FDA issued an EUA for it on [18 December](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine)." }, { "id": 6479, "title": "Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?", "short_title": "Adversarial Use of Consumer Genomics by 2030", "url_title": "Adversarial Use of Consumer Genomics by 2030", "slug": "adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030", "author_id": 116731, "author_username": "finback", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-03T19:57:25.480083Z", "published_at": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T04:56:12.639864Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6479, "title": "Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-02-03T19:57:25.480083Z", "open_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-23T08:31:05.324374Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-23T08:31:05.324374Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\n\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:\n\n1. Genetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products\n\n2. Is used to inflict harm on one or more individuals\n\n3. Without their consent", "fine_print": "Recognizing that \"harm\" and \"consent\" can be fuzzy, here are some examples meant to clarify the intent of the question.\n\nThe following examples do *not* count as positive resolutions:\n\n* Speculation that such a harm is possible, plausible, or likely\n\n* Genetic data is leaked or hacked but there is no evidence about specific harmful uses resulting from this.\n\n* Genetic data is collected in a bespoke way for the purposes of harm (eg a state power collects DNA from a targeted individual).\n\n* Individuals suffer psychic harm from discovering family infidelities (this is so common already that it is \"baked in\" to consent). \n\nThe following examples *do* count as positive resolutions: \n\n* Evidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (\"would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?\"), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service\n\n* An outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly.", "post_id": 6479, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763822676.059386, "end_time": 1764082803.114457, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8959639953250818 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763822676.059386, "end_time": 1764082803.114457, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8959639953250818 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7539331172353748 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 1.794934730355242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6138417404760712, 0.0, 0.30090893100650135, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.16099456957167682, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 1.0862009339914818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288975.675764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288975.675764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38580687778543876, 0.6141931222145612 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 161, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\n\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect." }, { "id": 6478, "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", "short_title": "Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?", "url_title": "Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?", "slug": "democrat-wins-2024-us-presidential-election", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-03T17:46:46.976981Z", "published_at": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.291337Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 155, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:17:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1031, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6478, "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", "created_at": "2021-02-03T17:46:46.976981Z", "open_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-08T12:01:14.608000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-08T12:01:14.608000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T16:18:07.403968Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*What would a Trump administration look like? A Harris administration? What would be dramatically different, and what would be the same? Learn more in the [2024 Electoral Consequences series](https://www.metaculus.com/project/us-conditionals/).*\n\nEvery 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by Congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate receives more than 269 votes.\n\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\n\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in Congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbency advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a candidate from the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) Party receives the most votes in the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)) in the [2024 US Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election). It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the votes, or when Congress selects the President in the case a candidate does not receive a majority.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6478, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730805016.088173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1038, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730805016.088173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1038, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5100549211114619 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.5040482814299834, 0.1781176951100652, 0.0, 0.44867735182716173, 0.0, 0.3892401222112645, 1.0372698170011425e-06, 0.0, 0.08325310175169695, 0.0, 0.6356741325722497, 0.00019283257072202732, 0.0, 0.028299537325602735, 0.000345922401490027, 0.4681545228357135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18480207748885322, 0.5762083326636454, 0.00011800932223104496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002932268454728731, 0.3114764695239939, 4.0410034668450615e-06, 0.0005314533923331932, 0.018125261216934908, 0.0, 0.23554029375640065, 0.0006422345110432847, 0.0003487264077718523, 0.2797915858677374, 0.17864797607576027, 1.9667125302689574, 0.2361050286586338, 0.28117396130288375, 0.7375167786494299, 0.4146046779252442, 3.4046531404876803, 0.0014294051754938793, 0.4458434562057957, 0.7111632100519887, 0.5718569617788716, 2.890195351870125, 2.3587882600788848, 1.7681717380341513, 4.40328623241107, 4.3643406373386995, 7.233320855509586, 2.5252363036842618, 0.39741749832658596, 0.8195875445293281, 1.8999252409994898, 3.0767742516407464, 0.5727189529753436, 0.05150881051456961, 0.0, 0.4042027210990003, 5.32477251154207, 0.3030484406590344, 0.2812452096598476, 0.09494020351513624, 7.522497022654308e-06, 0.5499683823268486, 0.2861848268279881, 1.7438836578138341, 0.7940547595496731, 0.017844425670450095, 0.2880702873051316, 2.569321881261104e-05, 1.8175749559084552e-06, 0.6777275041183077, 2.253142450668421e-06, 0.31385830105970036, 0.0, 0.00017346118389190482, 0.001380618219746174, 0.0, 1.4843728369483769, 0.005126187991337767, 0.014467214943994625, 3.866760169670582e-05, 0.0, 0.017492417810496725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03428057654481248, 0.00467014936917437, 0.07194761081522924, 0.08549052438862369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04836594737486061, 2.4156085011575203e-05, 0.0, 4.1433462392774774e-07, 3.4347736872487094 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -8.213167812300334, "peer_score": 13.974071308421053, "coverage": 0.999994697566488, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999994697566488, "spot_peer_score": 13.48901893556466, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -8.213167812300334, "peer_archived_score": 13.974071308421053, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.48901893556466, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287172.351995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 937, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287172.351995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 937, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5852369044655578, 0.41476309553444224 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 75, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3573, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*What would a Trump administration look like? A Harris administration? What would be dramatically different, and what would be the same? Learn more in the [2024 Electoral Consequences series](https://www.metaculus.com/project/us-conditionals/).*\n\nEvery 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by Congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate receives more than 269 votes.\n\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\n\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in Congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbency advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden." }, { "id": 6476, "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", "short_title": "Musk's Roadster Visited by 2050", "url_title": "Musk's Roadster Visited by 2050", "slug": "musks-roadster-visited-by-2050", "author_id": 111772, "author_username": "NoUsernameSelected", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-03T09:37:42.819673Z", "published_at": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T06:02:36.949231Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6476, "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", "created_at": "2021-02-03T09:37:42.819673Z", "open_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\n\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\n\n***Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?***\n\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6476, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761349188.509861, "end_time": 1767564741.226961, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761349188.509861, "end_time": 1767564741.226961, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.11411743422993822 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728291241.059072, "end_time": null, 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As of this question's posting, members of the subreddit r/wallstreetbets (the forum where the retail investors attempting the short squeeze mainly aggregate and communicate) believe that the vast majority of short positions are yet to be covered. They draw analogies to the 2008 squeeze of Volkswagen shares orchestrated by Porsche, when Volkswagen stock briefly traded at over €1005, momentarily making it the most valuable company in the world.\n\nMembers of the subreddit generally seem to believe that the peak of the GME squeeze has not occurred yet.\n\nThere was [another Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6379/will-gamestop-gme-reach-42069-by-eoy/) asking if GME would breach $420.69 by the end of 2021. It resolved positively.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if the GME stock price as indicated by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME?p=GME) reaches at least $1000 at any point of time before 11:59 pm EST, 20 February 2021. 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