Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5020
{ "count": 6403, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5040", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5000", "results": [ { "id": 6476, "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", "short_title": "Musk's Roadster Visited by 2050", "url_title": "Musk's Roadster Visited by 2050", "slug": "musks-roadster-visited-by-2050", "author_id": 111772, "author_username": "NoUsernameSelected", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-03T09:37:42.819673Z", "published_at": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T06:02:36.949231Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "βοΈ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "π", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6476, "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", "created_at": "2021-02-03T09:37:42.819673Z", "open_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\n\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\n\n***Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?***\n\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6476, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761349188.509861, "end_time": 1767564741.226961, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761349188.509861, "end_time": 1767564741.226961, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.11411743422993822 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728291241.059072, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728291241.059072, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9758849044457091, 0.024115095554290887 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 174, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 6475, "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", "short_title": "Implantable Bioartificial Kidney FDA Approval", "url_title": "Implantable Bioartificial Kidney FDA Approval", "slug": "implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval", "author_id": 117110, "author_username": "CloudyCrystalBall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-03T02:41:57.505011Z", "published_at": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.662687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T08:03:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "π¬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6475, "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-02-03T02:41:57.505011Z", "open_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-10T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-10T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T08:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T08:06:18.051266Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \n\nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \n\nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6475, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735696057.166481, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735696057.166481, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04796494526497567 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.9106587705729114, 3.7494717907781077, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6156546955959293, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.15879807646568847, 0.05150409956156851, 0.026429544426075636, 0.12458556497060898, 0.37390892894840233, 0.0, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.06290448966866473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38744384280162997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09622124116773499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19976240866306647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08397709005035515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.17548147071223, "peer_score": 8.087819896613288, "coverage": 0.999746902030896, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999746902030896, "spot_peer_score": -3.031696468802424, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 71.17548147071223, "peer_archived_score": 8.087819896613288, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.031696468802424, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289248.109406, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289248.109406, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9872050876772738, 0.01279491232272621 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 117, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \n\nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \n\nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"" }, { "id": 6470, "title": "Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?", "short_title": "Will GME reach $1000 by 20 February 2021?", "url_title": "Will GME reach $1000 by 20 February 2021?", "slug": "will-gme-reach-1000-by-20-february-2021", "author_id": 112921, "author_username": "galaga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-02T19:05:26.794866Z", "published_at": "2021-02-06T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.642835Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-06T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-02-20T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-20T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-20T17:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-20T17:28:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-06T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 164, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6470, "title": "Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?", "created_at": "2021-02-02T19:05:26.794866Z", "open_time": "2021-02-06T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-07T04:50:42.285286Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-07T04:50:42.285286Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-20T17:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-20T17:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-20T17:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-20T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-20T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since January 2021, a short squeeze of the stock of the American video game retailer GameStop (GME) has been taking place, causing major financial consequences for certain hedge funds and large losses for short sellers. As of this question's posting, members of the subreddit r/wallstreetbets (the forum where the retail investors attempting the short squeeze mainly aggregate and communicate) believe that the vast majority of short positions are yet to be covered. They draw analogies to the 2008 squeeze of Volkswagen shares orchestrated by Porsche, when Volkswagen stock briefly traded at over β¬1005, momentarily making it the most valuable company in the world.\n\nMembers of the subreddit generally seem to believe that the peak of the GME squeeze has not occurred yet.\n\nThere was [another Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6379/will-gamestop-gme-reach-42069-by-eoy/) asking if GME would breach $420.69 by the end of 2021. It resolved positively.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if the GME stock price as indicated by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME?p=GME) reaches at least $1000 at any point of time before 11:59 pm EST, 20 February 2021. The question resolves positively even if $1000 is attained outside of regular trading hours.\n\n\nThe question resolves negatively otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6470, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1613796219.793057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1613796219.793057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.011312727768302177 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 22.63736770899151, 1.1953894924113029, 0.0988409983281427, 0.023350671612623157, 0.05514457809444084, 0.0, 0.05593563925125258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.128501393926514e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04691329679044629, 0.0028002537396866313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.388068227894239, "coverage": 0.9994120188768019, "baseline_score": 97.95957444351043, "spot_peer_score": 5.894146599329865, "peer_archived_score": 2.388068227894239, "baseline_archived_score": 97.95957444351043, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.894146599329865 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1613796219.897198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1613796219.897198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 275, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since January 2021, a short squeeze of the stock of the American video game retailer GameStop (GME) has been taking place, causing major financial consequences for certain hedge funds and large losses for short sellers. As of this question's posting, members of the subreddit r/wallstreetbets (the forum where the retail investors attempting the short squeeze mainly aggregate and communicate) believe that the vast majority of short positions are yet to be covered. They draw analogies to the 2008 squeeze of Volkswagen shares orchestrated by Porsche, when Volkswagen stock briefly traded at over β¬1005, momentarily making it the most valuable company in the world.\n\nMembers of the subreddit generally seem to believe that the peak of the GME squeeze has not occurred yet.\n\nThere was [another Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6379/will-gamestop-gme-reach-42069-by-eoy/) asking if GME would breach $420.69 by the end of 2021. It resolved positively." }, { "id": 6463, "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", "short_title": "U.S. Troops in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01", "url_title": "U.S. Troops in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01", "slug": "us-troops-in-afghanistan-on-2021-05-01", "author_id": 103842, "author_username": "Fee", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-02T07:39:58.919483Z", "published_at": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.352939Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-01T15:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-01T15:08:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6463, "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", "created_at": "2021-02-02T07:39:58.919483Z", "open_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-08T16:42:55.247830Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-08T16:42:55.247830Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-01T15:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-01T15:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-05-01T15:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\n\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\n\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\n\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6463, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1615840074.813049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1615840074.813049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.8142656739234644 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032187559410783474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6827846491329951, 0.11672253838844351, 0.5996666312142704, 0.01732880491444991, 0.35713993506308805, 1.4800862049689119, 0.0, 1.0925297149576538, 0.0, 0.3704164410767862, 1.2255538366366117, 0.0, 0.0037302369458043724, 1.0, 0.0, 0.4609342547645822, 0.010221630333147167, 1.3681842239639705, 0.7087240772475801, 0.34805835094389953, 0.7911194711551137, 0.9254109494134861, 0.0822537239942791, 0.12804351164029554, 0.0, 1.5306857753244802, 0.0, 0.7996155160257796, 0.0, 0.055522266795466554, 1.499670654723038, 0.7565582784193663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20133650769215716 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.1320216893020438, "coverage": 0.9986645917186986, "baseline_score": 66.67022065522625, "spot_peer_score": 15.765663647731628, "peer_archived_score": 1.1320216893020438, "baseline_archived_score": 66.67022065522625, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.765663647731628 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1615840074.929722, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1615840074.929722, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.12587711413670277, 0.8741228858632972 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 202, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\n\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\n\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\n\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward." }, { "id": 6462, "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", "short_title": "Whip Ban in Melbourne Cup by 2026", "url_title": "Whip Ban in Melbourne Cup by 2026", "slug": "whip-ban-in-melbourne-cup-by-2026", "author_id": 113018, "author_username": "Grigfall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-02T06:32:19.899953Z", "published_at": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T11:20:02.534990Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "π", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6462, "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", "created_at": "2021-02-02T06:32:19.899953Z", "open_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-10T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-10T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\n\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\n\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\n\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\n\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n\n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the use of the whip is banned for any Melbourne Cup between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2027, even if the ban is rescinded in any future Melbourne Cup.", "fine_print": "A rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \n\nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, Australia.", "post_id": 6462, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763764024.444489, "end_time": 1764590681.045821, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763764024.444489, "end_time": 1764590681.045821, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.4181871723264064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41674342759689076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289312.112494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289312.112494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6671565974371351, 0.33284340256286493 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\n\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\n\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\n\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\n\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n\n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\"." }, { "id": 6459, "title": "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?", "short_title": "EU-Mercosur trade deal rejected in 2021?", "url_title": "EU-Mercosur trade deal rejected in 2021?", "slug": "eu-mercosur-trade-deal-rejected-in-2021", "author_id": 109190, "author_username": "NeilDullaghan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-01T21:59:18.654117Z", "published_at": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.723009Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-03T17:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-03T17:33:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6459, "title": "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-02-01T21:59:18.654117Z", "open_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-03T17:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-03T17:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-03T17:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The European UnionβMercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur (which consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached agreement in principle [in 2019](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-mercosur/eu-mercosur-strike-trade-pact-defying-protectionist-wave-idUSKCN1TT2KD). The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations. Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force. If ratified, it would represent the largest trade deal struck by both the EU and Mercosur in terms of citizens involved.The trade deal is part of a wider Association Agreement between the two blocs.\n\nOnce the texts are final and legally revised they will need to be translated in all EU and Mercosur official languages.The texts will then be presented by the European Commission to the Council of Ministers of the European Union for approval. In the Council unanimity is required. If approved the Council will sign the agreement and send it over to the Mercosur countries and to the European Parliament. An EU association agreement must also be approved by the national parliaments of all EU member states. Ratification of the agreement by the national parliaments of the Mercosur countries is also required.\n\nThe deal has been denounced by European beef [farmers](https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/macron-defends-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-as-farmers-protest/), [environmental](https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-green-trade-promises-face-reality-check-in-the-rainforest/) activists, [animal welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/why-eu-mercosur-agreement-bad-news-european-animals) advocates, and indigenous rights campaigners. Protests against the deal have taken place. Governments and parliaments of the EU member states have also [criticised](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/opposition-eu-mercosur-deal-growing) the agreement. In October 2020 both the [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2020-0252_EN.html) and the European Commissioner for Trade [Valdis Dombrovskis](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/files/commissionners/valdis-dombrovskis/en-dombrovskis-verbatim-report.pdf) have stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement \"cannot be approved as it stands.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves positive if by the end of 31 December 2021, European Parliament or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an EU participating country (any one of 27 countries) makes an announcement that the European UnionβMercosur ratification has been rejected, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6459, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635730260.91713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635730260.91713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3460688212018007 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.6903027093826349, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32096810985851937, 0.0, 2.456965084096233, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.7685977471107392, 0.3551836243544548, 0.3925736705540754, 0.4809786573605918, 0.04966152601580348, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.12228728963659696, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.02456981989063922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.167270621719951, "coverage": 0.999921965537573, "baseline_score": 12.4780810890806, "spot_peer_score": -28.584204427660527, "peer_archived_score": 7.167270621719951, "baseline_archived_score": 12.4780810890806, "spot_peer_archived_score": -28.584204427660527 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635730260.938535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635730260.938535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.75006454918586, 0.24993545081413998 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The European UnionβMercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur (which consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached agreement in principle [in 2019](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-mercosur/eu-mercosur-strike-trade-pact-defying-protectionist-wave-idUSKCN1TT2KD). The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations. Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force. If ratified, it would represent the largest trade deal struck by both the EU and Mercosur in terms of citizens involved.The trade deal is part of a wider Association Agreement between the two blocs.\n\nOnce the texts are final and legally revised they will need to be translated in all EU and Mercosur official languages.The texts will then be presented by the European Commission to the Council of Ministers of the European Union for approval. In the Council unanimity is required. If approved the Council will sign the agreement and send it over to the Mercosur countries and to the European Parliament. An EU association agreement must also be approved by the national parliaments of all EU member states. Ratification of the agreement by the national parliaments of the Mercosur countries is also required.\n\nThe deal has been denounced by European beef [farmers](https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/macron-defends-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-as-farmers-protest/), [environmental](https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-green-trade-promises-face-reality-check-in-the-rainforest/) activists, [animal welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/why-eu-mercosur-agreement-bad-news-european-animals) advocates, and indigenous rights campaigners. Protests against the deal have taken place. Governments and parliaments of the EU member states have also [criticised](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/opposition-eu-mercosur-deal-growing) the agreement. In October 2020 both the [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2020-0252_EN.html) and the European Commissioner for Trade [Valdis Dombrovskis](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/files/commissionners/valdis-dombrovskis/en-dombrovskis-verbatim-report.pdf) have stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement \"cannot be approved as it stands." }, { "id": 6458, "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", "short_title": "Will the EU ban mink farming in 2021?", "url_title": "Will the EU ban mink farming in 2021?", "slug": "will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021", "author_id": 109190, "author_username": "NeilDullaghan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-01T21:52:57.272331Z", "published_at": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.215975Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:35:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "βοΈ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6458, "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", "created_at": "2021-02-01T21:52:57.272331Z", "open_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T20:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\n\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\n\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\n\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\n\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary measure.In 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \n\nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\n\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\n\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\n\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia KlΓΆckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding β and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6458, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635730226.98971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635730226.98971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11560637138260209 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.2920067509037526, 1.0921312164978587, 0.5019450636404067, 1.688682164328959, 0.2999801648282497, 0.6292630324472235, 0.38150119878791605, 0.0, 1.377743700083922, 0.2425126729529749, 0.24316496359409068, 0.0, 1.3770189948361828, 1.805335347016975, 0.7370646316360566, 0.0, 0.0159215224489576, 0.20005070513194295, 0.05200267312968509, 0.0, 0.09117794475445058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05148079025128712, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7965517069063007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028841894683954285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033186276747047033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.165618456240987, "coverage": 0.9999225494614006, "baseline_score": 76.34077256785586, "spot_peer_score": 18.551603342981885, "peer_archived_score": 10.165618456240987, "baseline_archived_score": 76.34077256785586, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.551603342981885 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635730227.007433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635730227.007433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9609750473527114, 0.039024952647288544 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\n\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\n\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\n\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\n\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary measure.In 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \n\nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\n\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\n\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\n\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia KlΓΆckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons." }, { "id": 6456, "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?", "short_title": "Ban on gassing EU pigs before 2025?", "url_title": "Ban on gassing EU pigs before 2025?", "slug": "ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-before-2025", "author_id": 109190, "author_username": "NeilDullaghan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-01T21:29:34.338752Z", "published_at": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.363116Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T00:41:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "βοΈ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6456, "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-02-01T21:29:34.338752Z", "open_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T00:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-09T00:45:13.950702Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that βthere are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrationsβ. \n\nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6456, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730399234.632901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730399234.632901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.038589208585777975 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.53292364263917, 5.209337383427408, 1.8362321820068295, 0.0, 0.8667378626613714, 0.40485139433598666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07515348217431839, 0.028223255188921492, 0.5279101765152934, 0.4207964945914745, 0.0, 0.1027031312726476, 0.060189962532687886, 0.2542555412902254, 0.0, 0.046628072316329414, 0.11086371444177037, 0.0, 0.3282892515413588, 0.0, 0.07323387050617254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02329603190892334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025043422762740086, 0.0, 0.15044316718241518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016681565683498104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002292301674078456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011024176184751514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04416450282422419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.43850175154954, "peer_score": 9.439124400715846, "coverage": 0.9999945375752024, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999945375752024, "spot_peer_score": 13.01681937928885, "spot_baseline_score": 54.59683691052925, "baseline_archived_score": 76.43850175154954, "peer_archived_score": 9.439124400715846, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.01681937928885, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 54.59683691052925 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289153.350346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289153.350346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9968094342354136, 0.003190565764586439 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 202, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that βthere are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrationsβ. \n\nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure." }, { "id": 6455, "title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?", "short_title": "An EU animal welfare label by 2025?", "url_title": "An EU animal welfare label by 2025?", "slug": "an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025", "author_id": 109190, "author_username": "NeilDullaghan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-02-01T21:21:46.760568Z", "published_at": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T06:59:00.287237Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "βοΈ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6455, "title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?", "created_at": "2021-02-01T21:21:46.760568Z", "open_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\n\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as βa central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfareβ. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \n\nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \n\nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\n\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).", "fine_print": "The label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UKβs [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-Γͺtre animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark.", "post_id": 6455, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763569350.080782, "end_time": 1764516145.171885, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763569350.080782, "end_time": 1764516145.171885, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.07159492106294595 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9415221384844896, 0.6449506813123116, 0.0, 1.429735122693884, 1.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3584162138321666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21019456889105456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289725.029472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289725.029472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9518319737863493, 0.04816802621365072 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 216, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\n\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as βa central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfareβ. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \n\nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \n\nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\n\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems." }, { "id": 6447, "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", "short_title": "Republican Party split before 2022", "url_title": "Republican Party split before 2022", "slug": "republican-party-split-before-2022", "author_id": 116938, "author_username": "adamr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-31T03:43:39.133665Z", "published_at": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.798902Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:29:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 165, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6447, "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", "created_at": "2021-01-31T03:43:39.133665Z", "open_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-05T17:05:08.057785Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-05T17:05:08.057785Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-02T01:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6447, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630367885.574226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630367885.574226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06313244221864438 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.359696515293805, 4.558439628170391, 3.9609807127549304, 1.172420662112047, 1.9093622838153639, 2.1048998714860576, 0.5896982838656282, 0.14186402459996716, 0.07414931698986874, 0.5015584587055243, 0.004691899325181709, 0.006195206266026223, 0.1509538031225847, 0.01832973828617348, 0.05754989759645083, 0.09899246211994853, 0.0016542652070516597, 0.0, 0.0006909326434708598, 0.08066341436168879, 0.7900078745810473, 0.8404482376446798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8036302733139179, 0.005356419810905088, 0.8945554068581513, 0.006120721252937741, 0.0, 0.0016079588800159627, 0.006934649933933279, 0.002161336181131908, 0.0, 0.004100020315371079, 0.00650630935576489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7189605134547315e-05, 0.016124189331432344, 0.019119659858404168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.464333857064011e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026931888310629403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001472671385575299 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.014817500629304, "coverage": 0.9999801142490959, "baseline_score": 80.88296304136136, "spot_peer_score": -16.248407848186538, "peer_archived_score": 8.014817500629304, "baseline_archived_score": 80.88296304136136, "spot_peer_archived_score": -16.248407848186538 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630367885.604873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630367885.604873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9870617122565979, 0.0129382877434021 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 406, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?" }, { "id": 6444, "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", "short_title": "Australian Federal Election 2021", "url_title": "Australian Federal Election 2021", "slug": "australian-federal-election-2021", "author_id": 111805, "author_username": "galen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-30T12:01:56.831399Z", "published_at": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.127670Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T17:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T17:53:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "π³οΈ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6444, "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-01-30T12:01:56.831399Z", "open_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-04T13:56:36.315970Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-04T13:56:36.315970Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T17:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-29T17:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-29T17:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\n\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n\n- [The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House.\n- Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\"\n\nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\n\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.", "fine_print": "Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only.", "post_id": 6444, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1624969618.5724, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1624969618.5724, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.39086721847625333 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08410645441221705, 0.21777477775732307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2022157807035323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007887135632217103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011871193631835357, 0.0, 2.0910691946227566, 0.0, 0.010410228191898815, 0.3411709236947829, 0.009085526851517875, 1.333474110755955, 0.0, 0.5008691002377329, 1.5943624796198468, 1.7145731967256022, 2.394766491008795, 0.11739512936746152, 0.05671447914700535, 1.3247704317962623, 1.0416075852361013, 0.0, 0.800381290380788, 0.0, 0.4691703167924072, 0.0, 0.0776990583320521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013954015504436714, 0.0, 0.0006710788861047596, 0.4426484887234164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10819054156401371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16429087827348454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.865336716408812, "coverage": 0.9997795297696678, "baseline_score": 17.15056483951885, "spot_peer_score": -0.07946052490347669, "peer_archived_score": 15.865336716408812, "baseline_archived_score": 17.15056483951885, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.07946052490347669 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1624969618.667621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1624969618.667621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6694261876131743, 0.3305738123868257 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 243, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\n\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n\n- [The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House.\n- Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\"\n\nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\n\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection)." }, { "id": 6442, "title": "Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zΕ464.20 in 2021?", "short_title": "CD PROJEKT (CDR) and the Climb to zΕ464.20", "url_title": "CD PROJEKT (CDR) and the Climb to zΕ464.20", "slug": "cd-projekt-cdr-and-the-climb-to-z46420", "author_id": 116420, "author_username": "PMC_UwU", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-30T05:29:18.701187Z", "published_at": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.878310Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:40:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "π", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6442, "title": "Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zΕ464.20 in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-01-30T05:29:18.701187Z", "open_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T08:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On December 7 2020, 3 days before the release CD PROJEKT RED's highly-anticipated game Cyberpunk 2077, the stock price of parent company CD PROJEKT S.A. reached an All Time High of zΕ464.20, slightly beating the previous ATH of zΕ462.00 four months earlier.\n\n[Cyberpunk 2077 had a rough launch (PDF warning)](https://www.cdprojekt.com/en/wp-content/uploads-en/2020/12/call-transcript_en.pdf) contributing to the tumble of CDR's price to zΕ238.5 just a week later. The stock price has been trending sideways ever since, with a momentary rises (Wall Street Bets) and falls (ransomware attack).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if the stock price of CDR reaches zΕ462.00 or greater, at any time during regular trading hours, by the end of 2021, as indicated on [TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/GPW-CDR/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6442, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614558682.112626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614558682.112626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.23709866029335802 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35105909035292976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10587948392328991, 0.6562642058017948, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.5932864615449871, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1363462684831267, 0.0, 0.7577069146019514, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.5111672514803145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.3563424659464753, "coverage": 0.9920085835202666, "baseline_score": 65.92077303524637, "spot_peer_score": 3.3831409220000066, "peer_archived_score": 2.3563424659464753, "baseline_archived_score": 65.92077303524637, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.3831409220000066 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614558682.132007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614558682.132007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.867137160714911, 0.13286283928508907 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On December 7 2020, 3 days before the release CD PROJEKT RED's highly-anticipated game Cyberpunk 2077, the stock price of parent company CD PROJEKT S.A. reached an All Time High of zΕ464.20, slightly beating the previous ATH of zΕ462.00 four months earlier.\n\n[Cyberpunk 2077 had a rough launch (PDF warning)](https://www.cdprojekt.com/en/wp-content/uploads-en/2020/12/call-transcript_en.pdf) contributing to the tumble of CDR's price to zΕ238.5 just a week later. The stock price has been trending sideways ever since, with a momentary rises (Wall Street Bets) and falls (ransomware attack)." }, { "id": 6438, "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", "short_title": "Joe Biden Declares Campaign by 2023-11-15", "url_title": "Joe Biden Declares Campaign by 2023-11-15", "slug": "joe-biden-declares-campaign-by-2023-11-15", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-29T20:53:28.664553Z", "published_at": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.347925Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-25T10:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-25T10:34:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 331, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "π³οΈ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6438, "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", "created_at": "2021-01-29T20:53:28.664553Z", "open_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-13T04:14:05.205443Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-13T04:14:05.205443Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-25T10:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-25T10:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-25T10:34:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \n\nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.", "fine_print": "If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative.", "post_id": 6438, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682421358.787623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 331, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682421358.787623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 331, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9162105399902271 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3960964246698001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002616694609474249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033702064395052365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29446045810411714, 0.006721126931363058, 0.0, 1.9595864346447068e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5928990405078656e-06, 0.0011733618710708207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.719299042269053e-06, 0.01736632568399559, 0.0, 0.002042892267376094, 0.0, 0.0034765856768776983, 0.0, 0.0032640451649652833, 0.09126765643544783, 9.5386764602708e-06, 0.014200321339412875, 0.005553064182291493, 0.0, 2.90225133645393e-05, 0.0, 0.013840271138872423, 6.853025628173505e-07, 5.292801231448538e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3166499908180184, 0.0, 7.50626617094338e-05, 0.00010170791828881492, 0.0, 0.0030772105662308542, 0.0, 9.061999360873704e-06, 5.0842317131601096e-05, 0.0014939257980114314, 0.40812020955241485, 0.02673097616649628, 0.006956586839024507, 0.0, 0.0005701562545594295, 0.026410730920437556, 0.009413069903320033, 0.01805543022659657, 0.024015145542690026, 0.008794542042009685, 0.05825493393785614, 0.21372024941678924, 0.02079112859326919, 0.26155626599126147, 0.0010929223566659976, 0.059550727707880835, 0.03406789200438716, 0.07119111049242159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22956215394535628, 2.123609801109537e-07, 0.001085695288459955, 0.04181830324177695, 0.46037673798924306, 0.24259145091062856, 0.44075237715049453, 2.0869810612091e-05, 0.21064528825161646, 0.0, 0.694545104813967, 0.0, 0.6316696841488642, 0.43202006607201615, 0.002313370456740114, 2.778000701877984, 0.035888561646661564, 0.17537313402698387, 1.4924394693940302, 2.888879121531604, 4.303796277468405, 0.6526447971874008, 1.5644243788536467, 0.9324630844450744, 14.254557342298288 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 24.121500165108994, "coverage": 0.7967005172054122, "baseline_score": 28.539088856509597, "spot_peer_score": -5.928007822305751, "peer_archived_score": 24.121500165108994, "baseline_archived_score": 28.539088856509597, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.928007822305751 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682237728.262022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 330, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682237728.262022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 330, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07433893598698738, 0.9256610640130126 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \n\nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman." }, { "id": 6434, "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?", "short_title": "Draining the Senate, 2021β2023", "url_title": "Draining the Senate, 2021β2023", "slug": "draining-the-senate-20212023", "author_id": 115375, "author_username": "citizen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-29T00:53:28.307741Z", "published_at": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.896468Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6434, "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?", "created_at": "2021-01-29T00:53:28.307741Z", "open_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-11T16:54:00.694239Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-11T16:54:00.694239Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<small>Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/)</small>\n\nThe United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends.\nOnly 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.\n\n\nTensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023.", "fine_print": "\"Senator\" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.\n\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not.", "post_id": 6434, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1631233766.604562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1631233766.604562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.09094357103204168 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 7.157003970755261, 1.947302224527378, 0.0027635712922683174, 2.297882863267162, 0.1041713791162241, 0.0012366369575886927, 0.07777530720475026, 0.34433538851901274, 0.0016972687722069135, 0.6667055569758866, 0.0, 0.11700655974471232, 0.35518884365430864, 0.0, 1.0485165755389259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8117793320379049, 0.0, 0.034361985631411136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.354262819584288, 0.498894955788533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5884823613661859, 0.0, 0.0004549333128896809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2981739193928926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17237106321193998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014726095723060564 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.521248613750343, "coverage": 0.9998743072655085, "baseline_score": 96.39944504896108, "spot_peer_score": 7.792159526731051, "peer_archived_score": 11.521248613750343, "baseline_archived_score": 96.39944504896108, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.792159526731051 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1631233766.629252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1631233766.629252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9854841673270169, 0.014515832672983108 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 188, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<small>Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/)</small>\n\nThe United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends.\nOnly 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.\n\n\nTensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides." }, { "id": 6429, "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?", "short_title": "Berlusconi President of Italy in 2022", "url_title": "Berlusconi President of Italy in 2022", "slug": "berlusconi-president-of-italy-in-2022", "author_id": 100867, "author_username": "muzzle", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-28T17:57:14.077924Z", "published_at": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.892122Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-29T21:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-29T21:34:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "π³οΈ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6429, "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?", "created_at": "2021-01-28T17:57:14.077924Z", "open_time": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-05T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-05T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-29T21:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-29T21:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-29T21:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [President of the Italian Republic]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\n\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\n\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=124411317§ion=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.\n\nIf no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.\n\nThe question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6429, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640901793.644531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640901793.644531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.23849449300603068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.9213504784290651, 0.05948115479730889, 0.0361372874092818, 0.006636231172708202, 0.07666905731838128, 0.0, 0.05575354573918599, 0.009079885646599888, 0.000780056964336447, 0.9952219860054247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027719772151930493, 0.0, 1.0174571372656684, 0.0, 0.28015246351522516, 0.0, 0.0005676640048993487, 0.18219731343468085, 1.2350415198552973, 0.7961717265997972, 0.2990786581517114, 0.0, 0.7614550288480213, 1.1240410976594324, 0.02492106137671398, 1.9455898605061852, 0.0, 0.690021189158625, 0.8929452323661959, 0.0, 1.1482161725393267, 0.004409064241487278, 0.548250401242467, 0.0, 0.0019450976330104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2622754525086275, 0.0, 1.3090571769981136, 0.0, 0.5935735468969371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.660158109492426, "coverage": 0.9991653192704303, "baseline_score": 84.61236553411104, "spot_peer_score": 1.4771780389334206, "peer_archived_score": 4.660158109492426, "baseline_archived_score": 84.61236553411104, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.4771780389334206 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640901793.688753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640901793.688753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.859557418592596, 0.14044258140740398 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 138, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [President of the Italian Republic]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\n\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\n\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=124411317§ion=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022." }, { "id": 6427, "title": "Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?", "short_title": "Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?", "url_title": "Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?", "slug": "will-gb-news-be-broadcasting-in-2025", "author_id": 116672, "author_username": "charlieecho", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-28T16:35:30.871215Z", "published_at": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.904603Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T17:34:00Z", "open_time": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "π", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6427, "title": "Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?", "created_at": "2021-01-28T16:35:30.871215Z", "open_time": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-05-22T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-05-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T17:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T17:42:03.496034Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "GB News is a new UK television channel which is being established by a politically conservative group of broadcasters. It will be a free-to-receive digital TV channel and the enterprise is backed by - among others - John Malone, owner of the Liberty Global empire. \n\nAndrew Neil, its chair, will [host a prime-time show](https://variety.com/2021/tv/global/gb-news-uk-right-wing-fox-news-andrew-neil-1234890375/). Other hires include Nick Ferrari, who is best known as a presenter on LBC, a spoken-word station. They have also hired Julia Hartley-Brewer and Dan Wootton - both from talkRADIO, another speech station. \n\nDespite being trailed as a [British Fox News](https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/gb-news-news-channel-andrew-neil-b900143.html), it will need to stick to the UK's strict impartiality rules and will be regulated by Ofcom, the telecoms regulator. \n\nThe market has not proved lucrative, especially compared to [the situation in the US](https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/tuesday-jan-26-scoreboard-fox-news-climbs-to-no-1-in-prime-time/469277/). \n\nSky News, perhaps the best model for GB News to emulate, has been broadcasting since 1989 and it managed to \"reach\" 24 per cent of British people over [a four-week spell](https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/weekly-viewing-summary-new/). But even they only manage to pick up 1 per cent of the average daily minutes of viewing.", "resolution_criteria": "GB News will be deemed to be broadcasting if a TV station with the brand of \"GB News\" airs more than six hours of content per day over the Freeview network beyond January 1 2025. \n\nThe ownership of the channel should not be deemed relevant. If the brand changes, it will deemed to exist - so long as the station continues to broadcast and so long as its name, as listed on the Freeview electronic programme guide (EPG), still has the words \"GB News\" in the channel title.\n\nThe authoritative version of the EPG will be the standard text-only version of the EPG accessible to British Freeview viewers by pressing the programme guide button. There is an [online version](https://www.freeview.co.uk/tv-guide) - which is the same, but it currently uses graphics in place of channel names, which might create ambiguity on the naming question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6427, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735688326.085288, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735688326.085288, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.8847873707589399 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11089172218023127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006759718771926677, 0.0, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05112535790731333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04072077960807878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13484834208006885, 0.0, 0.05739703566227289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03665486827198788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1745942089805288, 0.016577590692162216, 0.34453003721548603, 0.0, 0.06813627848605193, 0.18959212173100704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17843225988807732, 0.1293948440529297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801238665584238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24877094235518352, 0.2162635545407669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12119878926274831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2724122556675614, 0.1073453678227079, 0.0010381920838562959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24004999054537143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04006867348160595, 0.3728600386790456, 0.5475369850104072, 0.3054018648546395, 0.0, 0.3980492573482718, 0.81556000182225, 0.4927490257761188, 0.0, 0.6590390464516561, 0.0, 0.8895461476317509, 0.7003927598367212, 0.0, 0.4529037759716625, 7.008001696407892 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -2.8744442781383523, "peer_score": 9.957079075210617, "coverage": 0.9998115961128359, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998115961128359, "spot_peer_score": 75.78758985112269, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": -2.8744442781383523, "peer_archived_score": 9.957079075210617, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 75.78758985112269, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287822.766068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287822.766068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21236348847502695, 0.787636511524973 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 270, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "GB News is a new UK television channel which is being established by a politically conservative group of broadcasters. It will be a free-to-receive digital TV channel and the enterprise is backed by - among others - John Malone, owner of the Liberty Global empire. \n\nAndrew Neil, its chair, will [host a prime-time show](https://variety.com/2021/tv/global/gb-news-uk-right-wing-fox-news-andrew-neil-1234890375/). Other hires include Nick Ferrari, who is best known as a presenter on LBC, a spoken-word station. They have also hired Julia Hartley-Brewer and Dan Wootton - both from talkRADIO, another speech station. \n\nDespite being trailed as a [British Fox News](https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/gb-news-news-channel-andrew-neil-b900143.html), it will need to stick to the UK's strict impartiality rules and will be regulated by Ofcom, the telecoms regulator. \n\nThe market has not proved lucrative, especially compared to [the situation in the US](https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/tuesday-jan-26-scoreboard-fox-news-climbs-to-no-1-in-prime-time/469277/). \n\nSky News, perhaps the best model for GB News to emulate, has been broadcasting since 1989 and it managed to \"reach\" 24 per cent of British people over [a four-week spell](https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/weekly-viewing-summary-new/). But even they only manage to pick up 1 per cent of the average daily minutes of viewing." }, { "id": 6425, "title": "Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?", "short_title": "The Future of WallStreetBets", "url_title": "The Future of WallStreetBets", "slug": "the-future-of-wallstreetbets", "author_id": 116885, "author_username": "Certain_Onion", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-28T03:58:52.475082Z", "published_at": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.528349Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T01:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T01:54:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 200, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "π»", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6425, "title": "Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?", "created_at": "2021-01-28T03:58:52.475082Z", "open_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-01T01:28:36.995415Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-01T01:28:36.995415Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T01:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T01:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-31T01:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The well-known subreddit /r/wallstreetbets has attracted significant media attention in the past week because of the ongoing short squeeze of GameStop (GME), which has caused the stock price to skyrocket. As a result, multiple hedge funds who were shorting GME incurred significant losses. On Jan 27th 2020, the official wallstreetbets Discord server was banned, and the subreddit was made private for 56 minutes, leading to speculation that the subreddit could be banned. [In a heavily upvoted post, one user described the ongoing situation as \"an existential threat to our community\".](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6izw5/stay_calm_a_quick_explanation_about_why_the_sub/)\n\n[CBS: How Reddit posters made millions as Wall Street lost billions on GameStop's wild stock ride](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wallstreetbets-reddit-gamestop/)\n\n[Vox: The GameStop stock frenzy, explained](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22249458/gamestop-stock-wallstreetbets-reddit-citron)\n\n[Ars Technica: Discord bans WallStreetBets as subreddit briefly goes private](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/01/discord-bans-wallstreetbets-as-subreddit-briefly-goes-private/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets is temporarily or permanently banned from the Reddit platform. \n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Reddit ceases to exist as a website or company before Jan 1st, 2022.\n\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6425, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614577319.541978, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614577319.541978, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11826896574463494 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.7820894420519624, 0.0, 1.227136846147184, 1.5765266848112272, 1.2889476490313179, 0.2929538138582206, 1.1244338264679556, 2.1509869183614647, 1.215212545713047, 5.400203439626094, 0.8079356349749326, 0.46819379118130366, 0.1227955319884858, 1.2710596212998335, 1.9756688428550615, 0.09489555105368638, 0.4011663625901196, 0.020339614165867662, 0.6817063055384762, 1.5677068132643517, 0.0002910150355034095, 0.00329290261107486, 0.9326867527461037, 0.23766442208724153, 0.06221702697863266, 0.1566204531607195, 0.13297017691019822, 1.0118441203138842, 0.0, 0.5709735538406631, 0.07356594758010027, 0.006178063009077405, 0.0028647185289794284, 0.06765399216875917, 0.0003430200626691986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035955191464073895, 0.000684733378916562, 0.0014643226214660283, 0.01236508797668542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003874482690416181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.728742924250198e-05, 0.0027506325584618677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009112373149901161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.561202248715189, "coverage": 0.9999954154411562, "baseline_score": 78.76676223723689, "spot_peer_score": 2.4853452828245843, "peer_archived_score": 8.561202248715189, "baseline_archived_score": 78.76676223723689, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.4853452828245843 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614577319.590566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614577319.590566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9333738961498899, 0.06662610385011013 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 378, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The well-known subreddit /r/wallstreetbets has attracted significant media attention in the past week because of the ongoing short squeeze of GameStop (GME), which has caused the stock price to skyrocket. As a result, multiple hedge funds who were shorting GME incurred significant losses. On Jan 27th 2020, the official wallstreetbets Discord server was banned, and the subreddit was made private for 56 minutes, leading to speculation that the subreddit could be banned. [In a heavily upvoted post, one user described the ongoing situation as \"an existential threat to our community\".](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6izw5/stay_calm_a_quick_explanation_about_why_the_sub/)\n\n[CBS: How Reddit posters made millions as Wall Street lost billions on GameStop's wild stock ride](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wallstreetbets-reddit-gamestop/)\n\n[Vox: The GameStop stock frenzy, explained](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22249458/gamestop-stock-wallstreetbets-reddit-citron)\n\n[Ars Technica: Discord bans WallStreetBets as subreddit briefly goes private](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/01/discord-bans-wallstreetbets-as-subreddit-briefly-goes-private/)" }, { "id": 6424, "title": "Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?", "short_title": "Substack to cancel a user by 2023", "url_title": "Substack to cancel a user by 2023", "slug": "substack-to-cancel-a-user-by-2023", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-27T18:49:12.418739Z", "published_at": "2021-08-11T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.387524Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-08-11T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-27T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-27T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-07T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-07T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-08-11T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "π", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6424, "title": "Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-01-27T18:49:12.418739Z", "open_time": "2021-08-11T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-07T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-07T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-07T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-27T17:48:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-27T17:48:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. They're known for refusing to remove contentious content, as a [recent TechCrunch article](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/03/substack-doubles-down-on-uncensored-free-speech-with-acquisition-of-letter/) explains,\n\n> As Substack grew, writers left jobs at BuzzFeed and the New York Times, lured by pay raises and cautious optimism. But as more writers came forward as part of the Substack Pro program, Substack was criticized for subsidizing anti-trans rhetoric, since some of these writers used their newsletters to share such views. Substack admits itβs not entirely apolitical, but the choices of which writers to subsidize, and its decision to use only lightweight moderation tactics, are a political choice in an era of the internet when content moderation has a tangible effect on global politics. Some writers even chose to leave the platform, as a result.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if Substack cancels an account, or suspends or deletes any post, of a Substack author with at least 100 subscribers, free or paid, for a reason which is not in their Terms of Use at the time the question opens (an archive of which can be found [here](https://archive.is/Jabkj)).\n\nNegative resolution will be determined if, according to admin discretion, no one in the Metaculus community was able to find a credible example of Substack cancelling anyone in the way previously described", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6424, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648388851.186778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648388851.186778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1868964124759024 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.006676994274053015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30476039097829194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29373925841663046, 0.02992980368349784, 3.050332680389194, 0.7275703736104373, 1.9554159231087929, 1.3696910068318213, 0.0, 1.896593527573641, 0.0, 0.8347814567889051, 1.0310386323814322, 0.03830215827603364, 0.9838239010593208, 0.0275524712565069, 0.06024515869196879, 0.04455983669438409, 0.0, 1.212632996284155, 0.5571350002490043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05891899613242063, 0.8082957731900678, 0.0, 0.0018827190265937534, 1.2741938337096137, 0.03845500816846512, 0.01788310826903167, 0.016335126798566385, 0.4637048041127142, 0.0, 0.25805080360260346, 0.011191020838932624, 0.0, 0.05637608232047189, 0.0, 0.08782294002043278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010135987728735986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00038602352720193, 0.0006390070510595393, 0.0, 0.02134152870342287, 0.09249871784476868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041232074872413094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013717567701513151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009625623299005349, 0.0007910310761167284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005046411140264085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.191524416939126, "coverage": 0.9992206310951672, "baseline_score": 9.435762681229109, "spot_peer_score": 4.053320470417785, "peer_archived_score": 13.191524416939126, "baseline_archived_score": 9.435762681229109, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.053320470417785 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648388851.253811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648388851.253811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9382098740797795, 0.061790125920220436 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 247, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. They're known for refusing to remove contentious content, as a [recent TechCrunch article](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/03/substack-doubles-down-on-uncensored-free-speech-with-acquisition-of-letter/) explains,\n\n> As Substack grew, writers left jobs at BuzzFeed and the New York Times, lured by pay raises and cautious optimism. But as more writers came forward as part of the Substack Pro program, Substack was criticized for subsidizing anti-trans rhetoric, since some of these writers used their newsletters to share such views. Substack admits itβs not entirely apolitical, but the choices of which writers to subsidize, and its decision to use only lightweight moderation tactics, are a political choice in an era of the internet when content moderation has a tangible effect on global politics. Some writers even chose to leave the platform, as a result." }, { "id": 6423, "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", "short_title": "Trump Substacker before 2024 election", "url_title": "Trump Substacker before 2024 election", "slug": "trump-substacker-before-2024-election", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-27T18:44:45.944837Z", "published_at": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.875170Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-03T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 104, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "π", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6423, "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", "created_at": "2021-01-27T18:44:45.944837Z", "open_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-22T04:23:42.902629Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-22T04:23:42.902629Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-03T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-11T10:25:26.180164Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n\n* Donald Trump\n* Melania Trump\n* Donald Trump Jr.\n* Ivanka Trump\n* Eric Trump\n* Tiffany Trump\n* Barron Trump\n* Jared Kushne", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6423, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643296813.965166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643296813.965166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.17820131777261067 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5744587163074324, 0.0, 0.006725247141668953, 0.05855211382480452, 1.4532558909120037, 0.10790971422506239, 0.13270162782980155, 0.9036396092057049, 0.5411638513383149, 1.7335793728323052, 0.0, 1.0536175659562583, 0.017710014220618613, 0.03801266836034276, 0.615568518163579, 0.9242791409825675, 2.268361847909862, 0.0, 0.0, 3.168529808419638, 0.7052653067079825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16018293680577148, 0.13362922987596557, 0.9061648019957719, 0.11102065352498955, 1.6470341137737146, 0.0, 0.43034655458195514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38203607972229914, 0.0, 0.010126185514436122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1256819684765509, 0.016297018841076386, 0.4186751432977572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004313678789822718, 0.0767035139161819, 0.06192442803341981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08003877878303517, 0.0007480512792552108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002751926865799895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021050772238154097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03535256154867892 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.63258949026152, "peer_score": 18.19234773953386, "coverage": 0.9998692967499759, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998692967499759, "spot_peer_score": 15.219321976545086, "baseline_archived_score": 80.63258949026152, "peer_archived_score": 18.19234773953386, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.219321976545086 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643296814.01084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643296814.01084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8878433956316819, 0.1121566043683181 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 194, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly." }, { "id": 6422, "title": "Will anyone make over $1M/year as a solo Substack author before 2024?", "short_title": "Substack millionaire before 2024", "url_title": "Substack millionaire before 2024", "slug": "substack-millionaire-before-2024", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-27T18:40:52.008722Z", "published_at": "2021-02-03T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.467056Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-03T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-02-04T18:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T18:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-04T18:44:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-03T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "π", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6422, "title": "Will anyone make over $1M/year as a solo Substack author before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-01-27T18:40:52.008722Z", "open_time": "2021-02-03T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-03T11:52:55.311664Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-03T11:52:55.311664Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-04T18:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-04T18:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T18:40:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-04T18:44:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Substack is a new publishing company that has been growing rapidly and attracting high profile authors. \n\nOne organization, The Dispatch, [has passed 1M in annual revenue](https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/the-dispatch-substack-1-million-revenue). However, The Dispatch has multiple authors.\n\n***Will anyone make over $1M/year as a solo Substack author before 2024***\n\nThis resolves positively if credible reports say that an individual author is earning over $1M/year from Substack subscribers. \n\nThey are allowed to have editors and still count as a solo author.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6422, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1612457672.047204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1612457672.047204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.9278079760553131 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03081720770343554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.457422476445143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16247035089338988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7288472840026776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039152502059046704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13813894976991253, 0.002153396825006112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7049319298329452, 0.777238463870146, 0.0, 0.552391993540976, 0.0, 3.433489545122305, 0.48978511741558245, 3.067362656485726, 0.4496518951513563, 3.5962224643786254 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1612457672.099933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1612457672.099933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0380953887308878, 0.9619046112691122 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }