Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5040
{ "count": 6403, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5060", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5020", "results": [ { "id": 6421, "title": "Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?", "short_title": "Substack Value Over $1 billion by 2024", "url_title": "Substack Value Over $1 billion by 2024", "slug": "substack-value-over-1-billion-by-2024", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-27T18:34:43.561219Z", "published_at": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.608837Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6421, "title": "Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-01-27T18:34:43.561219Z", "open_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:33:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:33:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6421, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704044151.199587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704044151.199587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.053942395324618364 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.436165318750409, 8.679155845283024, 1.6093521968367939, 0.3005402097087866, 0.3521798733422183, 0.7207182083584367, 0.0, 0.26998557461506667, 0.13797538528756229, 0.24223332744245452, 0.6639998420093953, 0.0, 0.2867105454089704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08552326458673323, 0.0966369608910907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2493840271392896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09093116635371491, 0.0, 0.2959385054398916, 0.0, 0.40550716719072977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006986361686378893, 0.0, 0.00035718598937916577, 0.06248957298788193, 0.0, 0.08039948599137024, 0.0015649527945986303, 0.057091803944708044, 0.0, 0.036776531987089155, 0.016828722744099002, 0.0, 0.0005090291650876231, 0.024989160484029684, 0.0, 0.00014324495277256958, 0.0, 0.11796383260496426, 0.0, 0.02779205072670019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0755570728948528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01110630055688868, 0.017148362076255207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006248872385642321, 0.03439315622603922, 0.015822968381418914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026214115313462585, 0.014281170139190962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014014885907562231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019443833745339967, 0.0022186213505800394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012051197561465337, 0.023020652032538298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029839047261420053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01807720919184988 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.065084212314268, "coverage": 0.9999687389882513, "baseline_score": -16.250921780381784, "spot_peer_score": 5.749274061419721, "peer_archived_score": 19.065084212314268, "baseline_archived_score": -16.250921780381784, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.749274061419721 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704044151.22863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704044151.22863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9983687767554823, 0.0016312232445177524 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 332, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials)." }, { "id": 6420, "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", "short_title": "Matt Levine to join substack", "url_title": "Matt Levine to join substack", "slug": "matt-levine-to-join-substack", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-27T18:29:02.478471Z", "published_at": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.498416Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6420, "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-01-27T18:29:02.478471Z", "open_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\n\n>Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6420, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641057910.609325, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641057910.609325, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.22888795850422966 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045661515517217234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9146998298058738, 0.0, 0.28691323263741964, 0.0, 0.7602772527492074, 0.5642982571167124, 0.0, 0.1464815121773151, 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"metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641057910.632664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641057910.632664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8832851252008319, 0.11671487479916813 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\n\n>Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers." }, { "id": 6419, "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?", "short_title": "Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene expelled by 2022", "url_title": "Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene expelled by 2022", "slug": "rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled-by-2022", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-27T18:10:27.333307Z", "published_at": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.090173Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T18:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T18:41:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 148, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6419, "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?", "created_at": "2021-01-27T18:10:27.333307Z", "open_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-30T15:05:35.811906Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-30T15:05:35.811906Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T18:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T18:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-02T18:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\n\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\n\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\n\n***Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022***\n\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\n\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6419, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1627701223.565621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1627701223.565621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], 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null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6418, "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?", "created_at": "2021-01-27T16:34:50.210019Z", "open_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-03T20:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-03T20:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-03T20:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T14:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T14:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \n\nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent **average inflation targeting**: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\n \n>Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\n\n\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n\n1. [FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm)\n2. [The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting\nThe Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/)\n3. Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm).\n3. [Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray.\n1. Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/)\n2. Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/)\n\n\nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.", "resolution_criteria": "For this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \n\n\nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \n\nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \n\nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE", "fine_print": "Normal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy.", "post_id": 6418, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625040570.948086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625040570.948086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5504629314788837 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8284076835897499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004442640210629016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0053330571903923785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012965554486791008, 0.015157278973843901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002949293081317581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008303572724120375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003650949509915334, 0.0, 0.657805343032083, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.49985550450466715, 0.0, 0.31745808316593105, 0.13813894976991253, 1.0197913113654975, 1.380794872625534, 0.0, 1.1223975862032598, 4.186269787533758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4083432198244051, 0.7634015328727568, 0.0, 0.07539365390346586, 0.3631270748144426, 0.0, 0.5288450547405315, 0.9396406647936779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5780456306067409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20566286060455888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5604905061740477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013291901200468375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625040571.000902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625040571.000902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4454079983707504, 0.5545920016292496 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 217, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \n\nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent **average inflation targeting**: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\n \n>Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\n\n\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n\n1. [FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm)\n2. [The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting\nThe Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/)\n3. Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm).\n3. [Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray.\n1. Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/)\n2. Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/)\n\n\nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use." }, { "id": 6393, "title": "[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?", "short_title": "Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?", "url_title": "Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?", "slug": "buccaneers-win-super-bowl-lv", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-26T07:31:35.681443Z", "published_at": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.840570Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-02-07T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-07T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-08T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6393, "title": "[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?", "created_at": "2021-01-26T07:31:35.681443Z", "open_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-27T14:39:44.632248Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-27T14:39:44.632248Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-08T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-07T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-07T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Super Bowl LV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LV) is the 55th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2020 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 7 February 2021 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.\n\nMetaculus has predicted in a variety of domains but can Metaculus do well at sports?\n\nThe Buccaneers will be the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium and their quarterback, Tom Brady, will play in a record 10th Super Bowl - the most for any quarterback.\n\n***Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?***\n\nThis question resolves positive if the Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV, per credible media reporting.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6393, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1612663529.195021, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1612663529.195021, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], 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"leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6384, "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", "created_at": "2021-01-25T10:25:50.210971Z", "open_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-03T11:16:19.882504Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-03T11:16:19.882504Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-15T18:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-15T18:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-11-15T18:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \n\nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\n\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\n\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).", "fine_print": "- The rating of the episode must specifically come from the _weighted average_ listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n- If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with.\n- This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria.", "post_id": 6384, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630396365.944822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630396365.944822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10736841716888962 ], 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28.245274537324566, "peer_archived_score": -2.370078834928673, "baseline_archived_score": -202.29346770449797, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.245274537324566 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630396365.961781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630396365.961781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9460557226352628, 0.0539442773647372 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but 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Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\n\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.", "fine_print": "If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA.", "post_id": 6381, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630466225.857777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630466225.857777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2235027443769776 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.030671477234453518, 0.0, 0.5500292255799683, 0.527990513163097, 0.00672277235564842, 0.6647537621986573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019119659858404168, 0.7487601796830778, 0.0, 0.9410079219267959, 0.0, 0.9373404424673529, 2.162556220123772, 0.3480814934386205, 0.5392096719789529, 0.9841413464181883, 0.0, 3.847065657742896, 0.37895188621877735, 0.1237456708932662, 0.12118931893303858, 0.7359765436016333, 2.8421563296142835, 0.01707280911502534, 0.9388380666192435, 0.17548002150715825, 0.0, 1.6199180246424811, 1.1052191772231523, 0.09469026361951567, 0.7318461973627195, 0.0, 0.21571025723438547, 1.0, 0.3196487098389125, 0.0, 0.22689416769511475, 0.6968037590407141, 0.32214638928261097, 0.0, 0.07811271450103206, 0.01843273742462761, 0.008045917104920638, 0.00018362922928581973, 0.007865787827795475, 0.012011330098636787, 0.05362779125569612, 0.00039161451634956535, 0.000287347917917955, 0.002161336181131908, 0.0011712837790043083, 0.0007038655800188831, 0.002275177723027197, 0.0031849108921028634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014413107806042002, 0.0, 0.0, 7.172670065044927e-06, 0.0, 0.005947430042079036, 0.000524151414436274, 0.0013600489594769657, 9.710853347108747e-05, 0.0, 0.005286283727319412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.2999261489737515e-05, 0.000849241051682825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002504720873836301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00047648221683318495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.689654336386388, "coverage": 0.9993623037809669, "baseline_score": 7.637715733012784, "spot_peer_score": 22.49238200119271, "peer_archived_score": 12.689654336386388, "baseline_archived_score": 7.637715733012784, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.49238200119271 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630466225.884589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630466225.884589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8275173030879727, 0.17248269691202733 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 646, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\n\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"" }, { "id": 6379, "title": "Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?", "short_title": "Will GameStop (GME) reach $420.69 by EOY?", "url_title": "Will GameStop (GME) reach $420.69 by EOY?", "slug": "will-gamestop-gme-reach-42069-by-eoy", "author_id": 115153, "author_username": "EmanueleAscani", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-24T14:07:56.804103Z", "published_at": "2021-01-24T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.665816Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-24T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 120, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-28T15:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-30T12:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-30T12:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-28T15:02:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-24T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 123, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6379, "title": "Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?", "created_at": "2021-01-24T14:07:56.804103Z", "open_time": "2021-01-24T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-25T16:38:30.530529Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-25T16:38:30.530529Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-30T12:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-28T15:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-28T15:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-30T12:50:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-28T15:02:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of January 2021, the stock price of GameStop (GME) is seeing the sharpest rise in its history. \n\nThe Reddit user [/u/deepfuckingvalue](https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/) active on [r/wallstreetbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/) seems to have predicted the rise of this stock as early as 2 years ago. Now r/wallstreetbets is very bullish on GME and they predict a [$420.69 price](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l3mpmw/disgraceful_false_media_narrative_about_gme/).\n\nr/wallstreetbets, and the GME rise in general, has gotten a lot of media attention. This atypical situation, in which r/wallstreetbets seems to play a sort of role (it's still unclear how influential they really are) has also happened recently with the relatively sudden rise of other stocks such as TSLA, PLTR, and NIO.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if the GME stock price will reach $420.69 by the end of 2021, as indicated by Google. Otherwise, negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6379, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611846057.04816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611846057.04816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9068584740775579 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0005031558622977832, 0.0, 0.0005214440916154476, 0.00042056491444014373, 0.0037616954263030578, 0.0009014269890682909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011925784360865771, 0.00417146037459699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010616873261960493, 0.0, 0.003206263924242913, 0.0, 0.0016613566579178226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05829941101358558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047771563216299356, 0.0024998688891665023, 0.0, 0.0013944018245170657, 0.0, 0.19495758956952758, 0.0, 0.0030304811269917893, 4.147015664478446e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014481520277317007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008514529804420452, 0.07234430809246728, 0.02536619189510293, 0.0, 0.36316326840614344, 0.0, 0.07490067461325378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007254578418435562, 0.25333931191176207, 0.061796247063434964, 0.046955470793440826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1257700976233724, 0.10995532365003678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15005938887318995, 0.0, 0.2888988348387871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028902510754823047, 0.47404355485875915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04930369124009372, 0.19258611565201705, 0.0, 0.2477892254467714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018224970226160826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0400939979713337, 0.6117570384963134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4529664256321253, 0.009210489614203992, 0.0, 2.5281638841694356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1327073407359468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.970903476143453 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.8585331977328902, "coverage": 0.04619819481000978, "baseline_score": -6.3782062725926005, "spot_peer_score": 18.581932631970748, "peer_archived_score": 0.8585331977328902, "baseline_archived_score": -6.3782062725926005, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.581932631970748 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611846057.088073, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611846057.088073, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.34087801824600883, 0.6591219817539912 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 519, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of January 2021, the stock price of GameStop (GME) is seeing the sharpest rise in its history. \n\nThe Reddit user [/u/deepfuckingvalue](https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/) active on [r/wallstreetbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/) seems to have predicted the rise of this stock as early as 2 years ago. Now r/wallstreetbets is very bullish on GME and they predict a [$420.69 price](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l3mpmw/disgraceful_false_media_narrative_about_gme/).\n\nr/wallstreetbets, and the GME rise in general, has gotten a lot of media attention. This atypical situation, in which r/wallstreetbets seems to play a sort of role (it's still unclear how influential they really are) has also happened recently with the relatively sudden rise of other stocks such as TSLA, PLTR, and NIO." }, { "id": 6378, "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", "short_title": "Major Nuclear Accident before 2030", "url_title": "Major Nuclear Accident before 2030", "slug": "major-nuclear-accident-before-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-24T08:42:16.868553Z", "published_at": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T17:36:55.915633Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 63, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 342, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6378, "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", "created_at": "2021-01-24T08:42:16.868553Z", "open_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-28T07:34:29.935938Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-28T07:34:29.935938Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/)\n\n----\n\nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\n\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\n\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\n\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\n\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\n\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if an event or series of events that begins between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale (with that classification being issued before January 1, 2031), by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763680320.357834, "end_time": 1764582822.809557, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763680320.357834, "end_time": 1764582822.809557, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.11701758784807302 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1493510137459741, 1.1109944814090664, 0.4504471011103602, 2.7386417916267884, 0.7058354073564395, 1.9897686595225663, 0.8687065819987682, 2.0369329995091396, 0.46192871820556997, 2.151644230024289, 2.088668279946028, 0.5659071916519063, 1.6893984390362333, 0.23320345639872841, 0.3929225215096216, 3.4903671352927166, 0.13785951037697952, 0.17072448434562026, 0.011872228771662285, 0.0, 0.7580151221407809, 0.0, 0.007342284488284959, 3.913939524392762e-05, 0.0, 0.37172637468308134, 0.008800919274674298, 0.13711862676514128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6141289809044043, 0.05797675567113507, 0.12402697256873835, 0.27383533805101506, 0.0020088613918055726, 0.038333948684674005, 0.010645481156201236, 0.028768720902451445, 0.0, 0.00461101536101638, 0.23993208968414423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027849810264750086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03709831780977888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006623860811622539, 0.001133630478903663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08027865337652455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010526378430117114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043781764433923086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05722387834628425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32923602066616214 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290012.096655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 327, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290012.096655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 327, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9378609556564665, 0.062139044343533505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 46, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 824, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/)\n\n----\n\nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\n\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\n\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\n\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\n\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\n\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity." }, { "id": 6372, "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?", "short_title": "Israeli election March 2021", "url_title": "Israeli election March 2021", "slug": "israeli-election-march-2021", "author_id": 108990, "author_username": "danohu", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-23T12:09:03.285545Z", "published_at": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.576342Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-24T23:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-24T23:20:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6372, "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?", "created_at": "2021-01-23T12:09:03.285545Z", "open_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-28T15:08:45.889104Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-28T15:08:45.889104Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-24T23:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-24T23:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-03-24T23:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\n\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats.\nIt will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 202", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6372, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1616364926.23454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1616364926.23454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.17000000000000004, 0.83 ], "means": [ 0.8388995136002452 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002758391723504557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8948374224172492, 0.030573526996236923, 0.0, 0.008125528952671308, 1.3151194721746684, 0.04710457550786099, 0.10299702702416284, 0.3247434785803573, 0.0, 0.011415200401430712, 0.33907084380262364, 0.0, 0.06516519198932734, 0.055522266795466554, 2.5866073408375287, 0.019132522858291853, 0.9104485356810479, 2.501676215828176, 0.006374911068096776, 0.9352012208475416, 0.0, 0.804591723903333, 0.0, 0.0024448383708879215, 0.9738180139732873, 0.388274739745362, 0.551840901162242, 1.0102216303331473, 0.04331287452455614, 1.2935534163034228, 1.2833793278662122, 0.0, 0.021084170877201564, 0.08612163113084008 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.7465250240118981, "coverage": 0.999751666490919, "baseline_score": 71.60745042121077, "spot_peer_score": 7.817958074657078, "peer_archived_score": 1.7465250240118981, "baseline_archived_score": 71.60745042121077, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.817958074657078 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1616364926.305494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1616364926.305494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10789604266390951, 0.8921039573360905 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 213, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\n\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations." }, { "id": 6371, "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?", "short_title": "UK festival Shambala to take place Aug 2021", "url_title": "UK festival Shambala to take place Aug 2021", "slug": "uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021", "author_id": 112510, "author_username": "isaacdunn", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-23T11:32:31.051602Z", "published_at": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.046864Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-04-20T21:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-04-20T21:40:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6371, "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?", "created_at": "2021-01-23T11:32:31.051602Z", "open_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-30T12:59:10.780087Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-30T12:59:10.780087Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-04-20T21:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-04-20T21:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-04-20T21:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\n\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\n > In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\n\n >But if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).", "resolution_criteria": "If a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\n\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021.\nIf the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\n\n\nShambala should not be confused with\nShambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6371, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1617189359.906378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1617189359.906378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7704404538385252 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005537830714382473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016576386347562713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026632629625951768, 0.0, 0.013197088104220753, 0.013808762573796008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16054456415221713, 0.08577160466054211, 0.0, 1.2137307095107015, 0.0, 0.3952632697996375, 0.0, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.041314330922520195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053493066571363594, 0.06050086571808722, 0.9523051116573213, 0.0, 0.3061620984667782, 0.0, 0.0, 1.620401982144189, 0.0, 1.2684170473224168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49121329729785923, 0.0, 0.9102596681858349, 0.28045304072399985, 0.6392481672365632, 1.6286745741102462, 1.171216823083249, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.8642672445783581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11855578058059343 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -4.897821229263467, "coverage": 0.9988370416397974, "baseline_score": -20.032491827751787, "spot_peer_score": -13.765421656347868, "peer_archived_score": -4.897821229263467, "baseline_archived_score": -20.032491827751787, "spot_peer_archived_score": -13.765421656347868 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1617189359.944953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1617189359.944953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1695959728538401, 0.8304040271461599 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 147, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\n\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\n > In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\n\n >But if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival)." }, { "id": 6369, "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?", "short_title": "Official Scottish Indyref before May 2024", "url_title": "Official Scottish Indyref before May 2024", "slug": "official-scottish-indyref-before-may-2024", "author_id": 116672, "author_username": "charlieecho", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-22T22:31:10.675829Z", "published_at": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.699944Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-03T23:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-03T23:36:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 255, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6369, "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?", "created_at": "2021-01-22T22:31:10.675829Z", "open_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-03T23:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-03T23:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-03T23:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \n\nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\n\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a referendum held in Scotland regarding Scotland's independence from the United Kingdom, and this referendum is held before May 3, 2024. This referendum may be an \"advisory\" referendum; that is, it is not necessary for the referendum to have any legally binding effect.\n\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. 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The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\n\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)" }, { "id": 6367, "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", "short_title": "University of California In-person Fall 2021", "url_title": "University of California In-person Fall 2021", "slug": "university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021", "author_id": 114969, "author_username": "arun2642", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-22T21:33:26.932549Z", "published_at": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.937212Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-26T07:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-26T07:25:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6367, "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", "created_at": "2021-01-22T21:33:26.932549Z", "open_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-01T20:37:17.298544Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-01T20:37:17.298544Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-26T07:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-26T07:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-26T07:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \n\nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \n\nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\n\n***Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?***\n\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \n\nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\n[fine-print]If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. 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is proved by 2100?", "created_at": "2021-01-22T15:19:15.881897Z", "open_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-28T09:01:55.940984Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-28T09:01:55.940984Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*previous Metaculus questions:*\n\n* *[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)*\n\n* *[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)*\n\n\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) \\( \\zeta(s) \\) all have real part equal to \\( 1/2 \\). The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers \\( -2, -4, -6, \\ldots \\), which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function *other than* these trivial zeroes had real part equal to \\( 1/2 \\).\n\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic \\( \\pi(x) = \\textrm{Li}(x) + O(\\sqrt{x} \\log x) \\) for the prime counting function \\( \\pi(x) \\). It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\n\n***Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the *disproof* of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6365, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763821098.96971, "end_time": 1763983247.827074, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763821098.96971, "end_time": 1763983247.827074, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.8905827627793151 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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[Snopes](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/bill-gates-id2020/) rated the following claim false:\n\n>Bill Gates ... seeks to \"microchip\" the world population\n\nHowever, this could easily change. Elon Musk, the world's richest man as of January 2021, has founded Neuralink, which aims to ultimately implant brain-computer interfaces in humans and has already [implanted a brain-computer interface in a pig](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53956683):\n\n>Elon Musk has unveiled a pig called Gertrude with a coin-sized computer chip in her brain to demonstrate his ambitious plans to create a working brain-to-machine interface.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Bill Gates (or the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, or any other foudation of which he is the founder) owns a stake in any company or non-profit, or made a grant to any company, non-profit, or researcher, that has implanted a brain-computer interface in at least one person before January 1, 2031, according to credible media reports.", "fine_print": "If the company in question was public prior to Gates obtaining a stake in it, then he must own at least 1% of the company and a minimum of $10 million for this to resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 6364, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671167690.683486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671167690.683486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.33875925882056357 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.5915933438298826, 0.0, 0.11524141917366568, 0.34332323923577707, 0.6994761010122648, 0.0, 0.054067770425164544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.612104708519176, 0.06324040188892568, 0.004878079341891922, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5535613110229898, 0.01614116511509263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8980199349238731, 1.384620079799197, 0.02018721735106872, 0.0, 0.019347354867206394, 0.0029102099193291783, 1.0233352531029263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.105038504713889, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0742207680795706, 0.22643861771824655, 0.08330211214582241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06412496724333422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19600271381795006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06452395506976416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1246610110958938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.615523979804894, 0.8363923052450274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6834538313459222 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.1701770728349645, "coverage": 0.15966910663506878, "baseline_score": -27.661698693623674, "spot_peer_score": -16.438975568673186, "peer_archived_score": 2.1701770728349645, "baseline_archived_score": -27.661698693623674, "spot_peer_archived_score": -16.438975568673186 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1670658688.655906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1670658688.655906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9339836992809376, 0.06601630071906238 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Despite widespread rumors, Bill Gates, formerly the richest man in the world, has yet to announce a program to implant brain-computer interfaces in the world population. [Snopes](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/bill-gates-id2020/) rated the following claim false:\n\n>Bill Gates ... seeks to \"microchip\" the world population\n\nHowever, this could easily change. Elon Musk, the world's richest man as of January 2021, has founded Neuralink, which aims to ultimately implant brain-computer interfaces in humans and has already [implanted a brain-computer interface in a pig](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53956683):\n\n>Elon Musk has unveiled a pig called Gertrude with a coin-sized computer chip in her brain to demonstrate his ambitious plans to create a working brain-to-machine interface." }, { "id": 6359, "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?", "short_title": "Bolsonaro president of Brazil in 2023", "url_title": "Bolsonaro president of Brazil in 2023", "slug": "bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023", "author_id": 113693, "author_username": "Mellaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-21T00:17:49.160438Z", "published_at": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.725478Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 122, 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"2021-01-21T00:17:49.160438Z", "open_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-05T21:44:37.002988Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-05T21:44:37.002988Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-03T23:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-03T23:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-03T23:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term.\nNonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\n\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\n\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.", "resolution_criteria": "* This question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on January 2, 2023.\n\n* It resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\n\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.", "fine_print": "In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on January 1, 2023, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution.", "post_id": 6359, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672562820.347387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 390, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672562820.347387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 390, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015252093279807546 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 33.23410888973505, 1.7237922264161831, 1.5135472692386522, 0.7970085353213479, 0.18830696323783935, 0.006849397423852914, 0.0, 0.007085523546004435, 0.0054003423705103045, 0.013233830184474021, 6.256635227409376e-06, 0.0, 0.00026189153172147446, 0.0012471482092602528, 0.12217306051682825, 0.0003865806057789061, 1.9796888390167794e-07, 0.0, 0.00417824404570007, 0.04488056260162086, 0.000414168942206231, 0.004602414199452443, 0.004993180588700826, 0.009328688784679295, 0.21132326684508326, 0.0, 0.004766555217186724, 0.0034260681496956357, 0.0, 0.008725454644739119, 0.0034128862386444466, 0.0039270527867243925, 0.04718627610784046, 0.0011650990680627422, 0.00854205859098147, 2.7732153247508203e-06, 7.665892090391065e-05, 0.0004970641803024502, 9.030700034929445e-07, 0.006123583511205857, 0.0007159082284691362, 0.0013409600433050152, 0.00530607988606616, 0.0, 0.000111561665678396, 0.00442580794137284, 2.4801798143150144e-08, 3.318839807506753e-05, 0.0, 0.0024027806269213275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.070231078401349e-08, 0.000486746621298392, 0.00020791982911993695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4982741715125538e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001845890225047539, 0.0, 0.000713896178568059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0903259063414147e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00029480975087834907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.847052219450815e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.23357017984151, "coverage": 0.9997009398221411, "baseline_score": 43.25411627600406, "spot_peer_score": -28.939224315988557, "peer_archived_score": 11.23357017984151, "baseline_archived_score": 43.25411627600406, "spot_peer_archived_score": -28.939224315988557 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672562820.386992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 390, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672562820.386992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 390, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1426, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term.\nNonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\n\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\n\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin." }, { "id": 6356, "title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?", "short_title": "AES-256 broken by 2040", "url_title": "AES-256 broken by 2040", "slug": "aes-256-broken-by-2040", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-20T23:16:44.019727Z", "published_at": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T16:21:02.620056Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-20T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6356, "title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?", "created_at": "2021-01-20T23:16:44.019727Z", "open_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-25T16:10:39.633112Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-25T16:10:39.633112Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-20T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-20T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. \n\nThere is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries.", "resolution_criteria": "Anything that is not a computationally feasible break of the algorithm itself will not resolve positive. For example, any kind of dictionary attack, including AI-generated dictionaries, does not resolve positive. Side-channel attacks do not resolve positive. Any other attacks on implementations of AES-256, but not the specification for the AES-256 algorithm itself, do not resolve positive. Non-cryptographic means of key recovery, such as interrogation, brain scan, theft or espionage do not resolve positive. \n\nThis question resolves positive if before 12:01 AM GMT on January 1 2040 a credible, practically demonstrated* means of determining a AES-256 secret key without any special knowledge except the given ciphertext is made known to the public. Correspondingly, attacks that require a plaintext or more than one ciphertext for a given key do not resolve positive.\n\n*\"Practically demonstrated\" means that a successful attack against AES-256 was actually carried out", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6356, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763008032.33728, "end_time": 1764328064.800606, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763008032.33728, "end_time": 1764328064.800606, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.10149393456461207 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287163.372449, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287163.372449, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9885393014719003, 0.01146069852809972 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 287, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. \n\nThere is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries." }, { "id": 6352, "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", "short_title": "Insurrection Act Invocation before 2025", "url_title": "Insurrection Act Invocation before 2025", "slug": "insurrection-act-invocation-before-2025", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-20T03:41:41.740562Z", "published_at": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.607753Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T00:29:42.029359Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T00:29:42.029359Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6352, "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-01-20T03:41:41.740562Z", "open_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-24T11:05:36.242345Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-24T11:05:36.242345Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:33:28.169018Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n- [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\n- [Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/)\n\n----\n\n[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n\n> - when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n\n> - to address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n\n> - or to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\n\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\n\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US federal government invokes the Insurrection Act at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2025. No additional criteria are necessary for this question to resolve positively.", "fine_print": "If positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 6352, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735709231.548637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735709231.548637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.03780000548318001 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.351746549180385, 2.16737379875491, 1.255488266499254, 0.3299207140433421, 0.665699146087203, 0.5496503264064998, 0.0, 0.01033054698572272, 0.01492113900111469, 0.164694280383383, 0.0006087369567646638, 0.249169576728295, 0.12506161189353662, 0.0, 0.11350961328409927, 0.044169734051798235, 0.001379858935095631, 0.0011906560386692468, 0.0026670827803748475, 0.08258187631039281, 0.18890593466554778, 0.0, 0.005226339774603747, 0.0, 0.004820851573569493, 0.44211681582334694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03155651501625598, 0.0, 0.11678018278098622, 0.0, 0.014714472786020486, 0.10463689854868943, 0.0008675168513705744, 0.08625981632926995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03537776765006278, 0.0, 0.2983837711135561, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001776558939473092, 0.0508534247220765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0893729831782388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007307431730717883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030057296334305714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 67.83092229622312, "peer_score": 6.895301904406595, "coverage": 0.9999836495134479, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999836495134479, "spot_peer_score": 9.54680504274548, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 67.83092229622312, "peer_archived_score": 6.895301904406595, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.54680504274548, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289456.495236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289456.495236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9876665941416879, 0.012333405858312147 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 323, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n- [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\n- [Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/)\n\n----\n\n[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n\n> - when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n\n> - to address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n\n> - or to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\n\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\n\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again." }, { "id": 6348, "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "short_title": "EA Global London 2021 rescheduled?", "url_title": "EA Global London 2021 rescheduled?", "slug": "ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-19T21:40:47.220969Z", "published_at": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.413062Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-19T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-19T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-29T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-29T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6348, "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "created_at": "2021-01-19T21:40:47.220969Z", "open_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-24T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-29T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-29T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-29T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-19T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-19T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\n\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\n\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/))", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\n\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\n\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.", "fine_print": "Note that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\n\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event.", "post_id": 6348, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634581418.912827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1634581418.912827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06108720422147678 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.207577441926404, 1.9506386313833652, 0.4229653069435141, 1.3483635887960994, 3.425083621282075, 0.2792409058229116, 0.50017958661089, 1.0597557454839905, 0.27212868753500247, 1.681335793395433, 0.24061064515782007, 0.0, 0.0012831903312438614, 0.0, 1.528708734006294, 0.07199357643662296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044458529617132495, 0.01814051570651832, 0.03323770182556235, 0.0, 0.008259285299461586, 0.04845367782517075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18701184823326883, 0.0, 0.004140937860262326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042868757277762825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007414948227486167, 0.036065484554214176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013194453644842145, 0.027929521995034626, 0.026661032019799632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00680725382117853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015065764538379534, 0.0, 0.002791205479272105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010689465272835212, 0.00031196504298956556, 0.0031981729232186985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036470026727336412 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.578871348044329, "coverage": 0.9998312997901013, "baseline_score": 32.97059568110048, "spot_peer_score": 6.733648839075374, "peer_archived_score": 14.578871348044329, "baseline_archived_score": 32.97059568110048, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.733648839075374 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634581418.935843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1634581418.935843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9715601513247465, 0.02843984867525356 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 328, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\n\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\n\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/))" }, { "id": 6338, "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", "short_title": "CDU governs Germany after the 2021 elections", "url_title": "CDU governs Germany after the 2021 elections", "slug": "cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections", "author_id": 110217, "author_username": "michal_dubrawski", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-18T16:30:13.310015Z", "published_at": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.507238Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T14:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T14:07:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 183, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6338, "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", "created_at": "2021-01-18T16:30:13.310015Z", "open_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-26T00:43:24.832164Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-26T00:43:24.832164Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T14:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T14:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-08T14:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\n\n>The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\n\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria) and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany) CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere *besides* Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\n\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\n\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\n\n***Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?***\n\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\n\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\n\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6338, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632601804.640801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 183, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632601804.640801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 183, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.3851857546856223 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13862921689719543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3992254254563113, 0.08354346519675636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14894559742506755, 0.0, 0.4404858473624918, 0.3139779929690984, 0.0, 0.018530129606419202, 0.0, 1.2790731497763288, 0.0, 0.006087002703712243, 1.044239968325146, 0.0, 1.3490899167172832, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3752684111644933, 0.0665463008851121, 0.3318819714112159, 0.5469431437567615, 0.10014936340688614, 1.002283366168081, 3.110378871184072, 2.348939313864488, 0.7808932666348113, 0.5424765788041123, 0.0, 0.9363777728020581, 1.2121158770562503, 1.424701813100791, 0.14241893519974277, 0.0, 0.8851609709235497, 1.3835993171144108, 0.1913966751300028, 0.5057252952329527, 0.0007442050634943618, 0.8077106344804039, 0.37459363241642746, 0.005092141525873318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014520943205232795, 0.04484164454117416, 0.000861263040169786, 0.001265744669996977, 0.001555089249442435, 0.0, 0.006112603374057691, 5.484768363147353e-06, 2.2560225547252446e-05, 0.16159654986080554, 0.0019350166087804385, 0.011758598452518695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00531581302633682, 0.0, 0.0025341048435941187, 0.0, 0.0020719190370748833, 0.005709424698378981, 0.001805989374333888, 4.9235390579849915e-05, 0.0, 3.150161957735407e-05, 0.0014840155552876704, 0.0, 0.002706832484505592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022171099148780493, 0.0030832144733465676, 7.280330113937017e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.678283773858773e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004146131141429298 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.154352952127955, "coverage": 0.9999326271456527, "baseline_score": -77.08999993225774, "spot_peer_score": -49.08848217040947, "peer_archived_score": 14.154352952127955, "baseline_archived_score": -77.08999993225774, "spot_peer_archived_score": -49.08848217040947 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632601804.670807, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 183, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632601804.670807, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 183, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6618776747084105, 0.3381223252915894 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 32, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 912, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
