Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5060
{ "count": 6403, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5080", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5040", "results": [ { "id": 6331, "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?", "short_title": "Mike Pence Campaign for US President in 2024", "url_title": "Mike Pence Campaign for US President in 2024", "slug": "mike-pence-campaign-for-us-president-in-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-17T02:00:21.734366Z", "published_at": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.580939Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-05T15:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T13:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T13:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T15:49:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 356, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6331, "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?", "created_at": "2021-01-17T02:00:21.734366Z", "open_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-20T17:40:46.434172Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-20T17:40:46.434172Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T13:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T15:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-05T15:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T13:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-05T15:49:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if former Vice President Michael R. Pence declares his candidacy for the 2024 election. Any announcement between January 1, 2021 to election day 2024 will be sufficient; Pence may seek the Republican nomination, run independently, or seek the nomination of any other party.", "fine_print": "In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election.", "post_id": 6331, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685952477.335699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 355, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685952477.335699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 355, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9354761402642653 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.18359638657847846, 0.039845764591319624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002794890683466211, 0.0008299844793340141, 1.551046135980744e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04252811466875063, 0.0, 0.0009034551267218813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032162422732643595, 0.04543280914149893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009761996002189181, 0.004263957879025816, 7.149680921632146e-07, 0.0, 0.04255080351770633, 0.019980843404375365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002846172025757845, 0.0, 0.08357532448065678, 0.011913843698171596, 0.01641537082675027, 0.15908674126344508, 0.0032582448022504405, 0.015267962929096622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013401276586969147, 5.0316788385946246e-05, 0.0239377009241346, 0.000742920163459865, 0.006362111694343229, 3.157041376459644e-07, 0.01915144141815915, 0.08326822569303247, 0.00914405259686137, 0.013503736178792356, 0.41071060267403003, 0.06334264241921114, 0.055353452007509095, 0.06250347173875563, 0.005955173456529672, 0.011412458949199093, 0.011899894865877328, 0.12535852632336825, 0.03662137791408742, 0.0036512448085414353, 0.0, 2.435486812735159e-06, 0.08151335222558366, 0.10209040553998802, 0.007090525070343304, 3.371930836711516e-05, 0.021462593820127787, 0.4981094625470226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024708208995294226, 0.0, 0.04105867131611399, 0.012471116342434172, 3.963752247882619e-06, 0.0002586459993337358, 0.03510153923625371, 0.2135830563259014, 0.0, 0.44322075973141417, 0.0012086608925291368, 0.0, 0.34267389383249497, 0.017465997966167896, 0.0329037643606395, 6.14294973728024e-08, 0.0, 0.10397532060160783, 0.00379168593906745, 0.0, 0.11101091997854436, 0.0, 0.46583578942352405, 0.8608517195459643, 0.0, 0.35973703396675455, 1.4133635208216715, 3.5410443666938827, 1.7285630557785372, 2.1084765133172425, 3.21285684472902, 18.76632810989825 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.45900947367178, "coverage": 0.6259302664359322, "baseline_score": -6.377626174556057, "spot_peer_score": 13.697790271672377, "peer_archived_score": 8.45900947367178, "baseline_archived_score": -6.377626174556057, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.697790271672377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685952477.378715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 355, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685952477.378715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 355, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.08203334012549812, 0.9179666598745019 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1076, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates." }, { "id": 6330, "title": "Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?", "short_title": "Donald Trump 2024 Presidential Campaign", "url_title": "Donald Trump 2024 Presidential Campaign", "slug": "donald-trump-2024-presidential-campaign", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-16T18:46:41.402133Z", "published_at": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.171430Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 148, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-16T02:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-16T02:25:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 728, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6330, "title": "Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?", "created_at": "2021-01-16T18:46:41.402133Z", "open_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-14T22:57:55.095621Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-14T22:57:55.095621Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-16T02:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-16T02:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-16T02:25:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \n\nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump declares his candidacy for the 2024 US Presidential Election.", "fine_print": "Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election.", "post_id": 6330, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1668565524.734485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 728, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1668565524.734485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 728, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9023870147641654 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.035456040031230616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01906812330157843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1641016693757693e-05, 0.0, 0.3211964329761782, 0.0, 1.0417518359579625e-07, 0.0, 4.2173443014211766e-08, 2.244802580091228e-07, 0.0, 2.1143027280498865e-05, 0.0, 2.748245234690657e-07, 0.021718578829896133, 9.27267668304432e-09, 0.0, 7.875522658459657e-12, 8.424077479648754e-06, 0.00018304633491401874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022187768472999872, 0.0, 4.6035082124718224e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 4.427156050724771e-09, 6.074188856699527e-09, 0.03279288205590308, 3.1835253952088428e-09, 0.0011659483563630994, 0.0004922329906040116, 7.300931638455717e-09, 0.0036284196542874236, 5.327807086468997e-08, 0.0, 0.0005743602010358862, 0.001807423883449523, 5.766429181299293e-05, 7.950812804293446e-07, 2.5258430937329225e-07, 5.027823582495897e-07, 5.747231951932641e-07, 0.05301453024533901, 6.803939318794916e-07, 0.004172427276097636, 0.3537263877329855, 5.360432401100932e-09, 0.36882512408532886, 0.29092312560184025, 0.004405264783977611, 0.0, 0.46264771753982786, 0.004850229065183194, 0.029411103206566338, 6.628892981321644e-06, 0.010207668230663887, 0.03307612140398409, 1.142108967220291, 0.018754242278931858, 0.12166530014540296, 0.08104711414996785, 0.828667270041098, 0.31832419785336075, 0.5777519916099755, 0.5068771928405321, 0.016651118341686224, 0.0002184043571024263, 1.7296182080248315, 0.0001554484611427835, 0.02458336683706353, 0.2917630083122216, 0.016156340551119225, 1.2990962012956637, 0.06417190477851203, 0.04009308808629438, 0.10301881909798277, 0.11757847152232682, 2.6702243162334605, 0.05172702467823699, 1.6328952049740255, 0.2571661040148058, 0.2720513626708133, 4.089018059685795, 0.3137800566236208, 2.096267900965737, 0.7532447358827121, 0.4053678159275176, 5.257107508230124, 1.4795978286842408, 4.453531839562288, 3.894594173202317, 15.463979469266224 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.167652780672345, "coverage": 0.4715965660760529, "baseline_score": 22.049720108762468, "spot_peer_score": 59.56376747602173, "peer_archived_score": 14.167652780672345, "baseline_archived_score": 22.049720108762468, "spot_peer_archived_score": 59.56376747602173 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667867109.821617, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 693, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667867109.821617, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 693, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.13115814430407324, 0.8688418556959268 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 53, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1960, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \n\nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0)." }, { "id": 6322, "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", "short_title": "Trump gain >10M followers on new platform", "url_title": "Trump gain >10M followers on new platform", "slug": "trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-16T00:57:14.887093Z", "published_at": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.143936Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 228, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6322, "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", "created_at": "2021-01-16T00:57:14.887093Z", "open_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-29T13:50:29.397408Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-29T13:50:29.397408Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T04:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-29T22:30:08.695540Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)) there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.", "resolution_criteria": "- If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively.\n- This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024.\n- Platforms must be open to the public", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6322, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641763210.566351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 228, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641763210.566351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 228, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.4990740003368168 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0012639429770541855, 0.004983066076383842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007077905096048898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7289058614073366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007807128092545892, 0.011035758314103736, 0.09843758218903628, 0.0, 0.003462765476533129, 0.07166620066916814, 0.0, 1.4106837205007257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6607251648919901, 0.0, 2.2234532953198958, 0.15398311657344893, 0.000694400042907934, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3279711894014237, 0.24702295627847126, 0.06519633692964119, 0.4051013901835453, 0.5264554220464162, 1.1051173192550978, 0.7351099061605618, 0.11025101743183428, 0.4484121176892813, 0.9141885550916469, 2.664086991222689, 1.3329904139357835, 1.7971658345097221, 0.8897502372574502, 0.6580606315172506, 1.667508766504071, 1.8905936437008601, 0.5900714975522307, 0.0, 0.0, 2.455652836931698, 0.0038846000154516723, 0.21624268897511317, 0.0014561958856318404, 0.7112004603733063, 0.28048490614254706, 0.0014220367198943583, 0.7400627614627983, 0.04093279080999737, 0.0008783976853892344, 0.031034401138564344, 0.008603480590682163, 0.1012704501878594, 0.2652148960273736, 0.001276064173170618, 0.01351647822362621, 0.0, 2.0459079727714855e-06, 9.432946322669077e-05, 0.0, 1.060805682764099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005003257357449841, 0.00018065378072557327, 0.0, 8.845804710025624e-06, 0.0, 0.0005317585940730786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0152186680093786e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 4.999855525593628e-05, 0.007526115065872472 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -22.575814256169494, "peer_score": 28.972071862371408, "coverage": 0.999961846795087, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999961846795087, "spot_peer_score": 17.744115136908885, "baseline_archived_score": -22.575814256169494, "peer_archived_score": 28.972071862371408, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.744115136908885 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641763210.604698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 228, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641763210.604698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 228, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5004730451497618, 0.49952695485023824 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 559, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)) there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers." }, { "id": 6318, "title": "Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?", "short_title": "7.0 Earthquake East Mediterranean in 2021?", "url_title": "7.0 Earthquake East Mediterranean in 2021?", "slug": "70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021", "author_id": 113488, "author_username": "randnix", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-15T17:52:24.683209Z", "published_at": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.987867Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-12T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-12T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:12:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6318, "title": "Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-01-15T17:52:24.683209Z", "open_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T08:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-12T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-12T05:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to earthquaketrack.com the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece\n\n\nThe area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D.\n\nThe 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed.\n\nThe Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea.\n\nEarthquake must be verified by either:\nEuropean-Mediterranean Seismological Center \nEarthquake Trac", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6318, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636682755.428562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636682755.428562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14578320015219187 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5149346301171007, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0539239531401403, 1.5111424480511628, 0.2515406540753948, 0.23072242730151374, 0.0, 0.7812637893120021, 2.448501994035194, 0.3957546527183693, 0.33999920711720216, 0.0, 0.17659841324481915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006908280092399992, 0.04031214257072945, 0.0, 0.02358838295555427, 0.38601827133614214, 0.7535956555594016, 0.027172461172235558, 0.02732190121774091, 0.0, 0.028905807183160836, 0.0, 1.2738916283428718, 0.561101776449919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35109847196302063, 0.0, 0.6513080407565454, 0.06663797039645214, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004173285167582051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01744285986675472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.553228208288381, "coverage": 0.9999357918559225, "baseline_score": 63.17877022965481, "spot_peer_score": 1.0609712191100094, "peer_archived_score": 9.553228208288381, "baseline_archived_score": 63.17877022965481, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.0609712191100094 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636682755.445932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636682755.445932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9574622521886356, 0.04253774781136447 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 129, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to earthquaketrack.com the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece\n\n\nThe area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D.\n\nThe 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed.\n\nThe Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland." }, { "id": 6317, "title": "[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?", "short_title": "Biden Cabinet appointments by 2022", "url_title": "Biden Cabinet appointments by 2022", "slug": "biden-cabinet-appointments-by-2022", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-15T17:26:01.563997Z", "published_at": "2021-01-16T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.365123Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-16T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-10T21:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-10T21:42:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-16T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6317, "title": "[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?", "created_at": "2021-01-15T17:26:01.563997Z", "open_time": "2021-01-16T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-16T17:13:03.280613Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-16T17:13:03.280613Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-10T21:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-10T21:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-03-10T21:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-20T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-20T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "One of the primary responsibilities of the US president is to appoint executives to the 22 main departments of the federal government. The US Senate then holds hearings vetting these candidates, and votes to confirm (or reject) them.\n\nA particularly contentious nomination in the Donald Trump administration was [Betsy Devos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betsy_DeVos) for Secretary of Education. Her nomination came to a close 50-50 vote, with Vice President Mike Pence approving her in a tie-breaking vote on 2017-02-07. Trump's appointments for the Departments of State, Defense, Treasury, and Justice were all held and confirmed by 2017-02-13.\n\nIn our era of polarized politics, it has been suggested that Republicans may not approve all of Biden's [cabinet nominations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Joe_Biden), hamstringing his ability to govern. Kelsey Piper [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) there was a 70% chance this would not happen.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if the US Senate confirms nominations from the Biden administration for all 4 positions of Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General, by 2021-12-31. These need not be the first nominations made or the current nominations as of 2021-01-15; if any appointments are rejected by the Senate, the question may still be positive if any nominations are confirmed before 2021-12-31.", "fine_print": "In the case that Joe Biden is no longer the president, for this question the \"Biden administration\" will be considered as being led by the President appointed in the Constitutional line of succession.", "post_id": 6317, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611136301.868337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611136301.868337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.965355888195979 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4752884891142051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21354065001539246, 0.0008165408802466752, 0.001557486043652286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6375136813109524, 0.0, 0.7889483139171823, 0.12118541157380776, 0.040059026738895276, 1.439897883251101, 0.9004905374005294, 0.474217075086353, 2.474384528011899, 9.157678606228489 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.452388519722745, "coverage": 0.96459140073508, "baseline_score": 93.39790371144609, "spot_peer_score": 8.65032478781361, "peer_archived_score": 3.452388519722745, "baseline_archived_score": 93.39790371144609, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.65032478781361 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611136301.891059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611136301.891059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.019822652159742105, 0.9801773478402579 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "One of the primary responsibilities of the US president is to appoint executives to the 22 main departments of the federal government. The US Senate then holds hearings vetting these candidates, and votes to confirm (or reject) them.\n\nA particularly contentious nomination in the Donald Trump administration was [Betsy Devos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betsy_DeVos) for Secretary of Education. Her nomination came to a close 50-50 vote, with Vice President Mike Pence approving her in a tie-breaking vote on 2017-02-07. Trump's appointments for the Departments of State, Defense, Treasury, and Justice were all held and confirmed by 2017-02-13.\n\nIn our era of polarized politics, it has been suggested that Republicans may not approve all of Biden's [cabinet nominations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Joe_Biden), hamstringing his ability to govern. Kelsey Piper [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) there was a 70% chance this would not happen." }, { "id": 6316, "title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?", "short_title": "India GDP growth in Q1-Q3 2021", "url_title": "India GDP growth in Q1-Q3 2021", "slug": "india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021", "author_id": 103600, "author_username": "2e10e122", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-15T11:05:21.995101Z", "published_at": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.924136Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-18T04:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-18T04:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6316, "title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?", "created_at": "2021-01-15T11:05:21.995101Z", "open_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-20T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-18T04:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-18T04:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-18T04:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020.\n\nIn 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1).\n\n***Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021?***\n\nResolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP01INQ657S,), which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6316, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622407868.660212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622407868.660212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.376711343603915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04816139989060515, 0.0, 0.06608631288902928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08895535332445731, 0.0, 0.7533724012169887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3598022657241858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7559622018772891, 1.0, 0.0, 1.3509543842581957, 0.40207876343039745, 0.41826171146406044, 0.9361882784028203, 2.7467123730828873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4374126892569993, 0.12899150325450517, 0.10746304061856489, 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2025?", "created_at": "2021-01-14T19:31:01.365016Z", "open_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-17T19:28:30.844467Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-17T19:28:30.844467Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T16:05:21.817553Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, 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As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if on January 20, 2025, at noon EST, there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6313, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737349397.853428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737349397.853428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0642528362398441 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.054479942606692, 2.419795431268862, 0.6604217256660313, 0.16752879140593907, 0.0, 1.2214677001140317, 0.21390272168428384, 0.24106033391707232, 0.0, 0.3416756395230208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.361643291533774, 0.012630607718125297, 0.0, 0.4373414349126885, 0.0, 0.3170936837217413, 0.22712436764182956, 0.02353083214495468, 0.5620624143762226, 0.0, 0.017076763540789443, 0.12333994283575891, 0.009780743137938195, 0.4402205166847748, 0.0, 0.019040926466058834, 0.0009614805124461008, 0.0, 0.4046247375496231, 0.0, 0.05389839539644623, 0.12378998438649413, 0.15866440683137853, 0.0006116391588802215, 0.15119337886828493, 0.07152163762997933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09181920572434212, 0.04471025736787371, 0.03720101334957416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08302140097903359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007084270917400775, 0.0004420257896850364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008934406256051884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10035680769537357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 57.14282809677665, "peer_score": 6.483232147391154, "coverage": 0.9999841636207486, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999841636207486, "spot_peer_score": 29.432596522653736, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 57.14282809677665, "peer_archived_score": 6.483232147391154, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.432596522653736, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288210.735527, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288210.735527, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9681202527443505, 0.03187974725564941 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 308, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett." }, { "id": 6312, "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", "short_title": "Will Kamala Harris run for President in 2024?", "url_title": "Will Kamala Harris run for President in 2024?", "slug": "will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-14T15:06:01.157857Z", "published_at": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.260034Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 218, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6312, "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", "created_at": "2021-01-14T15:06:01.157857Z", "open_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-12T00:41:34.115323Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-12T00:41:34.115323Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6312, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076151.661043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 218, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076151.661043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 218, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06583211667748666 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.492188848838428, 5.249427946625299, 2.1571867217045777, 4.037786068180527, 1.1052028197298138, 3.461614764059219, 0.08024301468314993, 0.913053937733445, 0.9913060382626229, 0.0, 0.8653983591056681, 0.23259933958571113, 0.4050349793734959, 0.5365006869398332, 0.0, 0.5646714224937538, 0.0, 0.06844141968749848, 0.04688192137865031, 0.0, 0.4060845472039757, 0.0, 0.05267114436831166, 0.0, 1.2364001095435085e-05, 0.5678979236500943, 0.003376200715978662, 0.0, 0.0407873929434989, 0.0, 0.061871194247882726, 0.47956414331421243, 0.012157968707396796, 0.43573823336574036, 0.0026525411070427254, 0.13279424142292748, 0.00941625223120939, 0.02902310778262956, 0.0, 0.0013275628155508445, 0.11112762579351253, 0.0331418536090644, 0.06333199905439257, 0.021522929462653127, 0.02223358239256399, 0.13207975515576376, 0.014903089251392707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016777026339772846, 0.01604233099655977, 0.04302934209872569, 8.202489228496866e-05, 0.00047632278141241323, 0.0014379157500649413, 4.850476119294223e-05, 0.0028990198713646307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003060397935098597, 0.01315961781682232, 0.013239949385568375, 0.003135950188988758, 0.0, 0.00031699672108084716, 0.0002279860899165873, 2.8596164222161253e-06, 0.005470036393784896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03461787327492637, 0.00015612976645739914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.039630591073511e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006013377315771554, 0.019984723288700802, 0.00019947431798316058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035021105389753926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012696313981136664 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 30.54839295807674, "coverage": 0.9999589719440983, "baseline_score": 44.62235910871117, "spot_peer_score": 13.271188355601158, "peer_archived_score": 30.54839295807674, "baseline_archived_score": 44.62235910871117, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.271188355601158 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076151.692519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 218, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076151.692519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 218, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9991594357007619, 0.0008405642992380585 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 607, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879)." }, { "id": 6307, "title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?", "short_title": "Median Bay Area House Prices in 2021", "url_title": "Median Bay Area House Prices in 2021", "slug": "median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-14T09:04:49.253076Z", "published_at": "2021-01-25T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.488112Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-25T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-01T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-25T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6307, "title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-01-14T09:04:49.253076Z", "open_time": "2021-01-25T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-27T18:42:36.340191Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-27T18:42:36.340191Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-01T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-01T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. \n\nThere have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. \n\nThe above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is <= $1.045m", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6307, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640849742.353156, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640849742.353156, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.04491860341393833 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 6.818344620964379, 0.2612201194620313, 1.9881084491872132, 1.6404417976058274, 3.439223502319192, 0.11529497931882446, 0.4237057887007724, 0.16968354081943476, 0.13125720433027036, 0.06415675443419956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0010381920838562959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0043392766864219865, 0.0, 0.006367393358593269, 0.0050634840930635725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20142760006632496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031076199278334622, 0.0, 0.006278041207578156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4247058044294796, 0.0, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021274407994285806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.915395192629375, "coverage": 0.9139400154010836, "baseline_score": 51.716847738909074, "spot_peer_score": 32.570170538472986, "peer_archived_score": 6.915395192629375, "baseline_archived_score": 51.716847738909074, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.570170538472986 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638287207.52112, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638287207.52112, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9805248120724462, 0.01947518792755377 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. \n\nThere have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. \n\nThe above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd)." }, { "id": 6306, "title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?", "short_title": "2024 US popular vote: 3rd party at least 5%?", "url_title": "2024 US popular vote: 3rd party at least 5%?", "slug": "2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-5", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-14T03:27:38.377397Z", "published_at": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.476455Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-25T18:35:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 210, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6306, "title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?", "created_at": "2021-01-14T03:27:38.377397Z", "open_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-20T00:26:35.352618Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-20T00:26:35.352618Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-25T18:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-25T18:49:14.595495Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\n\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)", "resolution_criteria": "This prediction resolves ***positive*** if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and ***negative*** if one does not", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6306, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730669586.329993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 209, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.011 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730669586.329993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 209, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.011 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.033149714253717905 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.419955352532522, 8.432119067010495, 0.6837512048102126, 0.8827564482985757, 0.23297309718666134, 1.075873448717629, 0.12095189431441204, 0.15438853117110463, 0.1712467165107251, 1.244048312947836e-05, 0.13990542101490094, 1.9379766126762723e-05, 0.0031267360736740336, 6.099263376560227e-06, 0.1417800231822586, 0.9411758933934953, 0.0, 0.07428112774972961, 0.00943044457517165, 0.0020709601506933434, 0.12255532666316757, 0.0002714223952672305, 0.0012068586772222625, 0.07709443181842196, 0.004905112237769662, 0.05023319878737757, 0.018017611877761037, 0.003845712924707632, 0.049811286758989486, 0.0, 0.021533314256989625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289117309870478, 0.0, 0.008007680060309087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14992653271183148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005033292658829451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07451341128644902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004645216870983727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.064432276579418e-05, 0.0, 0.0012176097024486127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093570518555205, 0.0, 0.03299262334135857, 0.0, 0.05142108370948995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028778687585878693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013461241406508223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12737670843672028 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 68.16417866420971, "peer_score": 8.92023750484699, "coverage": 0.9999861225607194, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999861225607194, "spot_peer_score": 2.1919355144141615, "baseline_archived_score": 68.16417866420971, "peer_archived_score": 8.92023750484699, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.1919355144141615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289836.667465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 207, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289836.667465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 207, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9980289501235697, 0.0019710498764302265 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 669, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\n\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)" }, { "id": 6303, "title": "[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?", "short_title": "Trump convicted by Senate?", "url_title": "Trump convicted by Senate?", "slug": "trump-convicted-by-senate", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-13T23:45:07.581857Z", "published_at": "2021-01-15T04:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.708492Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-15T04:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-14T15:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-14T15:38:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-15T04:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 149, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6303, "title": "[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-01-13T23:45:07.581857Z", "open_time": "2021-01-15T04:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-15T06:46:10.434397Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-15T06:46:10.434397Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-14T15:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-14T15:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-14T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the US Constitution, impeachment and conviction are not the same thing. To impeach is to bring charges and is done by the House of Representatives. But it is up to the Senate to convict.\n\nTwo-thirds of Senators present must find the president guilty for him to be removed.\n\n[The House voted on 13 January to impeach Trump for incitement for insurrection](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/live-blog/2021-01-13-trump-impeachment-25th-amendment-n1253971). It will now proceed to the Senate.\n\n[In a memo obtained by The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-impeachment-trump-mcconnell/2021/01/08/5f650ad0-520d-11eb-b2e8-3339e73d9da2_story.html), Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s office notes that the Senate will not reconvene for substantive business until Jan. 19, which means the earliest possible date that impeachment trial proceedings can begin in the Senate is the day before President-elect Joe Biden is inaugurated. It is likely the trial will continue after Trump is no longer President, but he still can be convicted.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if Trump is convicted by the Senate by 2/3rds vote, per a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). The vote count on [congress.gov](https://www.congress.gov/) is considered a credible source. If that source isn’t available, credible media reports will be consulted. This question resolves negative if this does not happen by the end of 2021.", "fine_print": "If the trial occurs before the closing date, this question will close retroactively to the minute the trial begins.\n\nAdditional impeachments of Trump, if any, beyond the one on 13 Jan 2021 will have no bearing on this question.", "post_id": 6303, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611029213.205356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611029213.205356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.313434711810028 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1462952603576708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07623645470712481, 0.0, 2.824752236350332e-05, 0.0, 0.00015966159711102446, 0.779420031774726, 0.1488044418444637, 0.07708050724165688, 0.5538976889490267, 0.0, 1.3009981302246674, 0.0, 0.12886298884833125, 0.008199196508247783, 0.012993217151297951, 1.6443197045358204, 0.9552156324002756, 0.8110405027998693, 0.18862688750245418, 0.02894913687068046, 1.9990957406246974, 0.009497552164587798, 0.2986187796544136, 0.4395098305558709, 0.0, 0.248125022990193, 0.016864959513436837, 0.0, 0.7207370453639402, 0.8676063054171815, 2.0063904310277625, 0.8628243343674474, 1.3464361079035534, 0.9299740896673891, 0.0, 0.740988506748901, 0.4177977200004568, 0.7595311312776005, 0.20671591843427725, 0.07317564959901254, 0.03875254823161872, 0.0, 0.0009024446556409978, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1270976704104705, 0.0, 0.08954886249605865, 0.0051345411251372255, 0.0, 1.156997133667803, 0.004408478622480413, 0.0072522339506563595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.043612377001059e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001702591595350229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1409140921564175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002107372989275642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0063131079052799735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5322091579076692 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.598835521239483, "coverage": 0.9998817455384268, "baseline_score": 50.35866565548927, "spot_peer_score": 43.756940194069706, "peer_archived_score": 8.598835521239483, "baseline_archived_score": 50.35866565548927, "spot_peer_archived_score": 43.756940194069706 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611029213.280607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611029213.280607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7706211827908966, 0.22937881720910336 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 36, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 300, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the US Constitution, impeachment and conviction are not the same thing. To impeach is to bring charges and is done by the House of Representatives. But it is up to the Senate to convict.\n\nTwo-thirds of Senators present must find the president guilty for him to be removed.\n\n[The House voted on 13 January to impeach Trump for incitement for insurrection](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/live-blog/2021-01-13-trump-impeachment-25th-amendment-n1253971). It will now proceed to the Senate.\n\n[In a memo obtained by The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-impeachment-trump-mcconnell/2021/01/08/5f650ad0-520d-11eb-b2e8-3339e73d9da2_story.html), Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s office notes that the Senate will not reconvene for substantive business until Jan. 19, which means the earliest possible date that impeachment trial proceedings can begin in the Senate is the day before President-elect Joe Biden is inaugurated. It is likely the trial will continue after Trump is no longer President, but he still can be convicted." }, { "id": 6296, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", "short_title": "US unemployment above 5% through Nov 2021", "url_title": "US unemployment above 5% through Nov 2021", "slug": "us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-13T19:36:16.575395Z", "published_at": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.322269Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-08T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-08T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 127, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6296, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", "created_at": "2021-01-13T19:36:16.575395Z", "open_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-17T02:25:29.717384Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-17T02:25:29.717384Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-08T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-08T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-08T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\n\n** Related Questions **\n\n* [Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)\n* [Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/)", "fine_print": "If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.", "post_id": 6296, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1633113112.500721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1633113112.500721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.42980553844708513 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021211131115270083, 0.01982208733121687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007877560919778222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09400098665912826, 0.0033404047164162297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012472028256494225, 0.0010319076119617613, 0.0, 0.015761062413886816, 0.0, 0.6406044405498584, 0.017277933382877746, 1.0179405778382997, 0.6358619218686057, 0.0, 0.013989787643485957, 0.07526952770402962, 0.0, 1.2294587494203528, 0.09677273896425666, 0.36646166226584864, 0.8321475817543323, 0.35359691157734197, 0.4159780335125696, 1.0485759155229484, 2.9440500180621587, 0.0, 1.0873644523047954, 0.5061566054323607, 1.41719465476712, 1.5956645473229365, 0.0036340471202654543, 0.1837633809101127, 0.48310627323167454, 0.8746784517087975, 1.1595968064251412, 0.07936369459070809, 0.239274965668326, 0.3577399362917141, 0.0031913955851027315, 1.0808454561814913, 0.28205721754089025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32278018152088583, 0.8422631594699145, 0.13318714531755588, 0.01632653851225576, 0.005942294779141461, 0.21364425637320175, 5.247287926814531e-05, 0.004134169640399594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025340789343860424, 0.027645787271039366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00040755850931587553, 0.25303866119766516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016115088998120218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025623189860816427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017979803612844998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005240817708063032 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.73560029468864, "coverage": 0.9993081497079463, "baseline_score": 8.485615876753164, "spot_peer_score": 33.4246074583409, "peer_archived_score": 19.73560029468864, "baseline_archived_score": 8.485615876753164, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.4246074583409 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1633113112.525522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1633113112.525522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6438998711387957, 0.35610012886120435 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 498, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%." }, { "id": 6295, "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", "short_title": "Increase in US poverty from 2020 to 2021", "url_title": "Increase in US poverty from 2020 to 2021", "slug": "increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021", "author_id": 113950, "author_username": "AnotherWorld", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-13T19:30:09.928801Z", "published_at": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.493975Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-23T01:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-23T01:39:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2969, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2021 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.877320Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.860386Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6295, "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", "created_at": "2021-01-13T19:30:09.928801Z", "open_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-17T03:39:04.356627Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-17T03:39:04.356627Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-23T01:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-23T01:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-23T01:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). \n\nThe state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.\n\n- [US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6)\n- [U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/)\n- [U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell)\n- [U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:\n\n- Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\"\n- Sample: \"All Individuals\"\n\nThe value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.\n\nIf the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.", "fine_print": "November was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for \"late 2021\".", "post_id": 6295, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635639196.660919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635639196.660919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5006467104401559 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3629874989716913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006320132079752626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07265466937739974, 1.2480637263520586, 0.5038611638190824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3786602796004277, 0.0, 0.2937072262777226, 0.8342288669485227, 1.6110402836301607, 0.1926159683647617, 0.11056117819897848, 1.649713392187587, 0.0, 0.885398373878453, 0.8993392908506256, 0.6478910826415591, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0561532772868312, 1.9238411823568837, 0.16242318024207603, 0.0, 0.2050974017457311, 0.05723777643280491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014966119508196492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0601240083992102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058887903583975235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00742799989072429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.571487405060184, "coverage": 0.9986973180793526, "baseline_score": -22.347586229019097, "spot_peer_score": 6.633888073919608, "peer_archived_score": 7.571487405060184, "baseline_archived_score": -22.347586229019097, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.633888073919608 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635639196.681618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635639196.681618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5614979320015596, 0.4385020679984404 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 185, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). \n\nThe state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.\n\n- [US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6)\n- [U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/)\n- [U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell)\n- [U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html)" }, { "id": 6293, "title": "Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?", "short_title": "Biden in person inauguration", "url_title": "Biden in person inauguration", "slug": "biden-in-person-inauguration", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-13T18:59:01.871757Z", "published_at": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.380716Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-20T02:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-20T02:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T17:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T17:37:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6293, "title": "Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?", "created_at": "2021-01-13T18:59:01.871757Z", "open_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-17T16:20:23.779650Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-17T16:20:23.779650Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T17:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T17:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-20T17:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-20T02:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-20T02:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President-elect Joe Biden will be inaugurated on January 20th, 2021. The inauguration is mostly virtual, but is currently planned to take place in person outside the US Capitol.\n\n[Biden has said he's not afraid:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2021/jan/11/biden-says-he-is-not-afraid-to-take-oath-of-office-outside-following-capitol-riots-video)\n\n>President-elect Joe Biden said he was not afraid to take the oath of office outside on 20 January following the violent riots at the US Capitol.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if Biden is inaugurated in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021. This resolves negatively if Biden is inaugurated in any other location or if the inauguration is delayed past January 20th for any reason.\n\n\"Outside the US Capitol\" means outdoors and closer to the US Capitol building than any other building", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6293, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611110343.81614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611110343.81614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9379952716741677 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07525624263384423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11279470694463979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0296031114406607, 0.015905270898504797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049168836542504236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4068915004085004, 3.196658236758495, 0.0, 1.286062567539367, 0.6875798835305237, 0.2377512507025561, 2.6391448057886873, 1.1096468645018973, 2.509084903800563, 0.12388263785019044, 4.6208088250411725 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.931834401469234, "coverage": 0.9930894765219762, "baseline_score": 88.60687719532494, "spot_peer_score": 18.633653109495025, "peer_archived_score": 2.931834401469234, "baseline_archived_score": 88.60687719532494, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.633653109495025 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611110343.870949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611110343.870949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06538807858481754, 0.9346119214151825 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President-elect Joe Biden will be inaugurated on January 20th, 2021. The inauguration is mostly virtual, but is currently planned to take place in person outside the US Capitol.\n\n[Biden has said he's not afraid:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2021/jan/11/biden-says-he-is-not-afraid-to-take-oath-of-office-outside-following-capitol-riots-video)\n\n>President-elect Joe Biden said he was not afraid to take the oath of office outside on 20 January following the violent riots at the US Capitol." }, { "id": 6291, "title": "Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?", "short_title": "No Trump Family Indictments in 2021", "url_title": "No Trump Family Indictments in 2021", "slug": "no-trump-family-indictments-in-2021", "author_id": 113950, "author_username": "AnotherWorld", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-13T18:33:24.051892Z", "published_at": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.828820Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": 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null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\n\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\n\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\n\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n\n- [Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html)\n- [The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation)\n- [Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707)\n\n***Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?***\n\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. 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"2021-03-01T18:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-03-01T18:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-19T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-19T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States), but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.\n\nMore recently, in 2020, [mass civil unrest occurred in the United States in response to the killing of George Floyd.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests) More than 14,000 people were arrested, and insured damages were estimated to be up to $2bn.\n\nIn January 2021, the [United States Capitol Building was stormed by partisans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) as Congress was attempting to certify the electoral college result in the 2020 election. Five people died, and dozens of arrests have been made.\n\n***Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2021?***\n\nFor the purposes of this question, 'major civil unrest or rioting' is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:\n\n- At least 50 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n- At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\nThese counts will be cumulative from question open date to resolution date. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest and instead can be from many.\n\n[fine-print]\nFor deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 50. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count.\n\nArrests must also be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6244, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611014157.176737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611014157.176737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 0.16713906824089766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.079429808447213, 0.10113281036296622, 0.7845588001525565, 0.5076571523348561, 0.5000722718654064, 0.9576238935369873, 0.34970063788061373, 0.8404818077651453, 1.3433198818513934, 3.369183687142529, 1.8933573383232236, 0.1526624163792299, 0.27370153884344073, 0.07905739993633322, 1.427878802582323, 0.87605484513259, 0.06428508517162268, 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These alleged crimes include, among other things, inciting the Capitol insurrection of January 2021, engaging in a corrupt quid pro quo with Ukraine, and committing tax fraud." }, { "id": 6218, "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "DC Statehood by 2025", "url_title": "DC Statehood by 2025", "slug": "dc-statehood-by-2025", "author_id": 113008, "author_username": "minnow_beacon", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-10T14:21:34.470690Z", "published_at": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.494250Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T02:35:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 203, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6218, "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2021-01-10T14:21:34.470690Z", "open_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-14T06:51:05.457135Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-14T06:51:05.457135Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T02:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-23T02:44:49.608122Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \n\nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \n\nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if legislation making some portion of Washington, DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. 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President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \n\nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building." }, { "id": 6210, "title": "Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?", "short_title": "Donald Trump Fleeing US", "url_title": "Donald Trump Fleeing US", "slug": "donald-trump-fleeing-us", "author_id": 111805, "author_username": "galen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-09T23:06:47.652624Z", "published_at": "2021-01-12T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.006954Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-12T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-18T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-18T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-21T20:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-21T20:27:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-12T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 72, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6210, "title": "Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?", "created_at": "2021-01-09T23:06:47.652624Z", "open_time": "2021-01-12T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-13T04:55:02.855178Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-13T04:55:02.855178Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-21T20:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-21T20:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-21T20:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-18T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-18T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In light of recent events, calls have been made to again impeach President Trump, or even pursue criminal charges. Previously, media coverage has suggested that Trump may be intending to flee the United States at the end of his Presidency, with [one piece in The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/04/trump-biden-inauguration-plane-flight-scotland) stating:\n\n> The murk surrounding Donald Trump’s likely whereabouts on his last day as president has thickened considerably with news that an official plane he has used in the past is due to fly to Scotland the day before Joe Biden’s inauguration.\n\nIn this particular case, however, the [Washington Post later reported](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/trump-scotland-golf-turnberry-inauguration/2021/01/05/0218037e-4f64-11eb-a1f5-fdaf28cfca90_story.html) on statements made by the White House denying this suggestion:\n\n> “Anonymous sources who claim to know what the President is or is not considering have no idea. When President Trump has an announcement about his plans for Jan. 20 he will let you know,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said in a written statement.\n>\n> The White House followed up with a second statement, attributed to press secretary Kayleigh McEnany, that the reports of a Trump trip to Turnberry were “not accurate. President Trump has no plans to travel to Scotland.”\n>\n> Where Trump and his family members will go and where they will live after his term has not been announced.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at least two credible media outlets report that Donald Trump exited the United States on (or by) 2021-01-20 23:59:59 EST and was not present in the United States on 2021-01-21 09:00:00 EST. The media reports must be published within 48 hours (ie, by 2021-01-23 EST)", "fine_print": "Positive resolution of this question does not require that Donald Trump be reported as physically in another country --- he may be in the air for the duration of 2021-01-20, for example --- but does require that media report he is absent from United States soil. 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Previously, media coverage has suggested that Trump may be intending to flee the United States at the end of his Presidency, with [one piece in The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/04/trump-biden-inauguration-plane-flight-scotland) stating:\n\n> The murk surrounding Donald Trump’s likely whereabouts on his last day as president has thickened considerably with news that an official plane he has used in the past is due to fly to Scotland the day before Joe Biden’s inauguration.\n\nIn this particular case, however, the [Washington Post later reported](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/trump-scotland-golf-turnberry-inauguration/2021/01/05/0218037e-4f64-11eb-a1f5-fdaf28cfca90_story.html) on statements made by the White House denying this suggestion:\n\n> “Anonymous sources who claim to know what the President is or is not considering have no idea. 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President Trump has no plans to travel to Scotland.”\n>\n> Where Trump and his family members will go and where they will live after his term has not been announced." }, { "id": 6202, "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", "short_title": "UK 2k/day COVID Deaths?", "url_title": "UK 2k/day COVID Deaths?", "slug": "uk-2kday-covid-deaths", "author_id": 111220, "author_username": "JKitson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-09T10:28:53.405168Z", "published_at": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.502280Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-02T18:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-02T18:36:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 167, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6202, "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", "created_at": "2021-01-09T10:28:53.405168Z", "open_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-10T21:34:16.522181Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-10T21:34:16.522181Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-02T18:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-02T18:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-06-02T18:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\n\n***Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?***\n\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the **Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported** on the dashboard exceed 14000.\n\n[fine-print]\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\n\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\n\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6202, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622500258.636823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622500258.636823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018211905517648418 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 21.12325064657466, 1.5351435471654047, 0.0077114739946808515, 0.593504397069399, 0.8978306232297328, 0.00464012697392041, 0.0, 0.002925145197109194, 0.0, 0.001856709808524987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8041281968122976e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2844960641040047e-05, 0.0, 0.000954772293717815, 7.800431844074332e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015077191531449164, 0.0, 0.0027377194506515196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00032755044056574363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3800618116531336e-05, 2.827992863265363e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002137481664233639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001832986926280021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.1352387039564303e-05, 0.00013330804455908665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019086407360581327, 6.730855628174284e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011740692838435518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17508073023189338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.104931077851409e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.633123110787782, "coverage": 0.99965912748367, "baseline_score": 93.01512721002513, "spot_peer_score": -78.0211918325164, "peer_archived_score": 18.633123110787782, "baseline_archived_score": 93.01512721002513, "spot_peer_archived_score": -78.0211918325164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622500259.156128, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622500259.156128, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9935809733348983, 0.006419026665101724 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 582, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }