Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5080
{ "count": 6403, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5100", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5060", "results": [ { "id": 6197, "title": "Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?", "short_title": "Brazil FIFA World Cup Win by 2050", "url_title": "Brazil FIFA World Cup Win by 2050", "slug": "brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050", "author_id": 111073, "author_username": "Skapis9999", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-08T14:39:46.334669Z", "published_at": "2021-02-25T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T00:34:07.011914Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-25T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-25T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6197, "title": "Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?", "created_at": "2021-01-08T14:39:46.334669Z", "open_time": "2021-02-25T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-27T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-27T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.", "resolution_criteria": "2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. \n\nFIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.\n\nIf any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6197, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763820276.956547, "end_time": 1764292283.399726, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763820276.956547, "end_time": 1764292283.399726, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7610726727423135 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010199944840930094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26487459163151467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3017051033688969, 0.07877593890689805, 0.0, 0.6701403139738773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02356201288525273, 0.0, 0.7249687206455864, 0.0026208098393045902, 0.7973400546120943, 1.2636444811767165, 0.20274572289943904, 0.0, 0.5136987968176958, 0.0, 0.7614948735764091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5216489209223459, 1.3214738847748286, 1.057153114005415, 0.7527531912644363, 0.07480405436786186, 0.0, 0.023846406516707313, 2.5349497657085567, 0.0, 0.004523307784845203, 0.0, 0.06821846966182324, 0.02591925143156949, 0.28427996702956143, 0.49908210673307807, 0.01936531092725104, 0.894124185507818, 1.101199257422163, 0.0, 0.3429179627815088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.251334220639833 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288082.552504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288082.552504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.29034558620254725, 0.7096544137974528 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 243, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil." }, { "id": 6190, "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?", "short_title": "Musk Net Worth by December 31, 2022", "url_title": "Musk Net Worth by December 31, 2022", "slug": "musk-net-worth-by-december-31-2022", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-08T08:05:42.777960Z", "published_at": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.123788Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-31T07:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-31T07:05:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6190, "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-01-08T08:05:42.777960Z", "open_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-03-31T16:12:37.830487Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-03-31T16:12:37.830487Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-31T07:05:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-31T07:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk is the richest person in the world.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elon Musk's net worth is double or more than the second richest person in the world at any time between March 1, 2021 to January 1, 2022, according to either of [Bloomberg's Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) or [Forbes' Index](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If these sources are not available, another credible source may be used at Metaculus' discretion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6190, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622434378.071821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622434378.071821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.1023762238959096 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.32991789487975676, 1.0243145077534435, 0.7365564356861964, 0.3136041428004539, 1.3917736861741892, 0.7578101437773963, 0.6661266193407162, 0.015061754745690714, 2.025042445865079, 0.06150615928245752, 0.03126931611125853, 1.6788062773671362, 1.8338078628010346, 1.013185101819028, 1.9521860641246453, 0.0, 0.05852891229315346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04081429055879288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33905283347288273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006043168560687309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024857065371296127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002018898677062105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07791871383103789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.796773473462732, "coverage": 0.9996843482572645, "baseline_score": 88.57343449441498, "spot_peer_score": 14.58575848423922, "peer_archived_score": 10.796773473462732, "baseline_archived_score": 88.57343449441498, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.58575848423922 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622434378.206742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622434378.206742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9507999958756261, 0.04920000412437383 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elon Musk is the richest person in the world." }, { "id": 6179, "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?", "short_title": "Second US Civil War Before 2031", "url_title": "Second US Civil War Before 2031", "slug": "second-us-civil-war-before-2031", "author_id": 111714, "author_username": "beala", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-07T14:50:33.000159Z", "published_at": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T00:22:31.016180Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 239, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 784, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6179, "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?", "created_at": "2021-01-07T14:50:33.000159Z", "open_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-19T17:48:28.476386Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-19T17:48:28.476386Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if all of the following conditions are met before January 1, 2031:\n\n- The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked.\n- While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches.\n- All of these deaths occur in any US state(s) (including DC).", "fine_print": "Any conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\n\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\n\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count.", "post_id": 6179, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762577224.501951, "end_time": 1764123531.528267, "forecaster_count": 575, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762577224.501951, "end_time": 1764123531.528267, "forecaster_count": 575, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.10883170333033412 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.406511532417585, 7.041326690890085, 5.287249408669056, 5.267304871269251, 1.0094906632461118, 3.0317964802244566, 2.7141839723007717, 1.5368117838201383, 1.9274399599923866, 1.0086983542819952, 2.253876651872524, 0.6428457898313101, 0.10770218426125937, 0.022829977919935268, 0.0, 0.5371172467951874, 0.9889658982706147, 0.0007568829100208463, 2.793045148504035e-07, 1.383049448091403e-07, 0.2834682284254594, 0.0, 0.17075493857573357, 0.0, 0.7779475392414024, 0.08537793919163411, 0.0, 2.9541469955382246e-07, 1.6892517133004504e-08, 0.0, 0.3408958444645191, 0.00012793025974153636, 0.0, 6.960564957380228e-09, 0.0, 4.538474485848745e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020608450976276657, 0.0, 0.6523930144058887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0478006133664539e-10, 0.0015098459407669818, 6.54006772024469e-06, 0.013610529054643222, 0.0, 0.0440607868069498, 0.4953218040041301, 0.0, 0.9795975339516648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004258430555937343, 0.07590876976867532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7370209704116454, 0.40622925016893907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.535681738137259e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2715181443470104, 0.0, 0.794157525570377, 1.1977363186687901e-06, 0.0, 0.002461567686799407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22177060697593404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2421666214864272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431671044571936 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289291.264699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 719, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289291.264699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 719, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9919009897013001, 0.008099010298699885 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 90, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1699, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)" }, { "id": 6177, "title": "[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?", "short_title": "Trump out before 2021/01/20?", "url_title": "Trump out before 2021/01/20?", "slug": "trump-out-before-20210120", "author_id": 110540, "author_username": "randallburns", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-07T05:43:12.880837Z", "published_at": "2021-01-08T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.336423Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-08T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-13T05:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-13T05:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:01:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-08T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 229, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6177, "title": "[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?", "created_at": "2021-01-07T05:43:12.880837Z", "open_time": "2021-01-08T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-09T01:45:51.981958Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-09T01:45:51.981958Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-20T19:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-13T05:40:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-13T05:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As of 2021/01/06 there have been [calls](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/impeach-trump-again/617573/) to relieve Donald Trump from his duties as President of the United States. That might happen because of his death, resignation, impeachment or the [25th Amendment process](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6172/-4-of-25th-amendment-invoked-before-nov-3/).\n\n***Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?***\n\nIf after 2021/01/06 and before the scheduled inauguation on 2021/01/20, the New York Times or Washington Post report that Donald Trump is no longer President of the United States or that anyone else has become President or Acting President before the inauguration of Joe Biden this question resolves as Yes. If no such reports exist, this question is resolved as no.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6177, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1610516310.934553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 229, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1610516310.934553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 229, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.1844301801894208 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2324700705532627, 0.007407102334265732, 0.4539496351959638, 0.23942092449831043, 0.8289435285007036, 0.4923262273642137, 1.987587250718579, 1.3507080847062842, 0.8716745610506047, 2.133402371614854, 0.029791028051596596, 0.0938928898935935, 0.1377128845343356, 1.4554385181190073, 2.9348097497118255, 1.4046153338655574, 0.6878482707548639, 1.046712134675682, 0.8920153466843637, 1.1479326134273276, 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"short_title": "§ 4 of 25th Amendment invoked before Jan 20?", "url_title": "§ 4 of 25th Amendment invoked before Jan 20?", "slug": "4-of-25th-amendment-invoked-before-jan-20", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-06T21:04:50.016413Z", "published_at": "2021-01-06T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.894326Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-06T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:02:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-06T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 267, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus 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"binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to [the Constitution of the United States](https://constitutioncenter.org/media/files/constitution.pdf) (PDF) states the following:\n\n>Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.\n\n>Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session.\n\n>If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.\n\nOn January 6 2021, [Trump supporters stormed the United States Capitol](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/01/06/dc-protests-trump-rally-live-updates/) following a rally held by President Trump in which he refused to accept defeat in the 2020 presidential election. \n\nThe scale of the disorder has [led some to propose that Trump be promptly removed from office before Biden is 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Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session.\n\n>If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.\n\nOn January 6 2021, [Trump supporters stormed the United States Capitol](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/01/06/dc-protests-trump-rally-live-updates/) following a rally held by President Trump in which he refused to accept defeat in the 2020 presidential election. \n\nThe scale of the disorder has [led some to propose that Trump be promptly removed from office before Biden is inaugurated.](https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1346924713940049935)" }, { "id": 6158, "title": "Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?", "short_title": "Fluvoxamine to get EUA for Covid in US?", "url_title": "Fluvoxamine to get EUA for Covid in US?", "slug": "fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us", "author_id": 116192, "author_username": "yds", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-05T21:25:06.670416Z", "published_at": "2021-01-09T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.025744Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-09T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:49:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-09T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6158, "title": "Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?", "created_at": "2021-01-05T21:25:06.670416Z", "open_time": "2021-01-09T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-11T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-11T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T19:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "There is [theoretical](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382922/) and [observational](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20143339v2) data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with [strong Sigma1R activation](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/), which [may also be relevant](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x).\n\nA recent [small preregistered RCT](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108) of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published [observational report](https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOES37qSxYr%5FN88&cid=F3C3887684911EE4&id=F3C3887684911EE4%2163948&parId=F3C3887684911EE4%2159777&o=OneUp). A [larger trial is underway](https://stopcovidtrial.wustl.edu/) by the same investigators as the first one.\n\nSummaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available [here](https://www.treatearly.org/promising-drugs) and [here](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1u7resy2bGA1_HIgj6Nc7ahzeS7DrpOtkiK5ywhQhmpk/edit#slide=id.gaeebd14cc9_0_79) from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found [here](https://www.wired.com/story/how-a-medication-for-ocd-ended-up-in-a-covid-19-trial/).\n\nThis question asks:\n\n***Before 2022, will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2022, the US FDA grants an emergency use authorization for the use of Fluvoxamine as a treatment for Covid.\n\n\nIn the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use authorisation, this question will resolve positive.\n\n\n[fine-print]\nIf an EUA is granted but later revoked, this would not change the outcome of the question.\n\nThis resolves positively even if the authorization is limited to certain classes of higher-risk patients, as was the case for Bamlanivimab, and even if other governmental agencies (eg. NIH) do not recommend it as standard of care. \n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6158, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1633059389.272465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1633059389.272465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2382235337639412 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03283702835426392, 0.33566448758373646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0044440085329729906, 0.10263372438940689, 0.022133849035742014, 0.0, 0.024383926462924213, 0.4595300430144031, 1.4395311488673164, 0.646790819803931, 0.6604018709523716, 0.7081278126566147, 0.499597189725183, 2.1342933572655816, 0.05879944916051883, 0.5305354475802987, 0.6724433331705997, 0.0, 0.00562727195348949, 0.0, 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"approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-01T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": 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"range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "#Background\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \n\nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \n\nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021.", "resolution_criteria": "#Resolution Criteria\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\n\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6145, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622658815.37261, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622658815.37261, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9554095580599186 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0020285154841512055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008323054346231313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005027948894301332, 0.000365894509793429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025463103311364456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2193406282932918, 0.0, 0.00125373555270061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14790567107868602, 0.33919917683413425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08242645498745742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06131282196655381, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18917524144887712, 0.0, 0.3996893200568562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10039300275454352, 0.4638041813616187, 0.8744384347686047, 0.24904414230524893, 0.18057556480703751, 0.20568439241539585, 0.7629511765106407, 0.43064013194172535, 0.30568274680110863, 0.49585139784232224, 0.02252696934103095, 11.598248147739286 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.730288226366529, "coverage": 0.7776766284812056, "baseline_score": 62.4062692848489, "spot_peer_score": 33.05168227467684, "peer_archived_score": 12.730288226366529, "baseline_archived_score": 62.4062692848489, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.05168227467684 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622577643.668958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622577643.668958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.058631157509646536, 0.9413688424903535 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 394, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "#Background\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \n\nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \n\nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021." }, { "id": 6108, "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?", "short_title": "Norway EEA membership 2025", "url_title": "Norway EEA membership 2025", "slug": "norway-eea-membership-2025", "author_id": 115194, "author_username": "nautable", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-01-01T17:22:04.810593Z", "published_at": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.055084Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:51:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6108, "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-01-01T17:22:04.810593Z", "open_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-07T17:44:05.000574Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-07T17:44:05.000574Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T02:53:50.071875Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\n\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n\n- Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution)\n- 2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution)\n- Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6108, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688242648.111452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688242648.111452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.03994526422001631 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6662382028101236, 6.063652378131113, 2.7297847493595957, 0.9918235646879181, 1.0251319776896866, 2.9991483914615857, 0.09935007966684109, 0.0, 0.130111205499186, 0.7603179923979412, 0.08770499358336453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21001020717018964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6375136813109524, 0.0, 0.011924694438303426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2904204131944944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004545421011829164, 0.0, 0.009674152661148447, 0.0, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00769031993710549, 0.0030463571209371912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012799377483163744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 94.49729484520182, "peer_score": 10.537447753004008, "coverage": 0.9998948581907942, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998948581907942, "spot_peer_score": 30.13795254390929, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 94.49729484520182, "peer_archived_score": 10.537447753004008, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.13795254390929, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688242648.133681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688242648.133681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9974749396424283, 0.002525060357571773 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 168, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\n\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)" }, { "id": 6104, "title": "Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?", "short_title": "B117 to lock down ≥3M in US by 2021-03-11?", "url_title": "B117 to lock down ≥3M in US by 2021-03-11?", "slug": "b117-to-lock-down-3m-in-us-by-2021-03-11", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-31T21:02:23.642670Z", "published_at": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.513040Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-02-26T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-26T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-13T13:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-13T13:27:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6104, "title": "Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?", "created_at": "2020-12-31T21:02:23.642670Z", "open_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-15T20:19:07.440302Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-15T20:19:07.440302Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-13T13:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-13T13:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-03-13T13:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-26T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-26T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SARS-CoV-2 var. B.1.1.7, the coronavirus strain first identified in the United Kingdom, is likely already seeded in most areas of the world. At question-writing time the community thinks it is [probably at least 50% more transmissible](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/) than previous strains. If so this is likely to have serious consequences. [The New York Times describes](https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/sns-nyt-new-virus-variant-response-20201231-o7ducojblzbnrli7jdneisnc2u-story.html) the situation as \"threatening to complicate what had seemed a hopeful, if halting, path to recovery\" and quotes an expert describing \"the overall picture\" as \"pretty grim.\"", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves positive if at any point, a total of three million or more people in the United States are reported to be under lockdown specifically because of B117. \"Lockdown\" means, in general, extraordinary measures more characteristic of last March and April than the rest of the pandemic, that are widely reported as \"lockdown\" (\"locking down,\" \"locked down,\" etc) in credible sources. Explicit official indications that the measures are extraordinarily severe, comparable to England's introduction of a new \"Tier 4\" of restrictions, are also strong evidence of \"lockdown.\" The lockdown cannot be *probably* or *inferentially* because of B117, but must be [explicitly stated by those mandating it](https://news.yahoo.com/u-k-prime-minister-cites-180046044.html) to have been caused by B117, or by B117 and the South African 501.V2 variant collectively. In all close cases it is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports.\n\n(The cutoff date is one year post-March 11th, 2020, the day the seriousness of the coronavirus epidemic in America hit home for many there.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6104, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614314104.281325, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614314104.281325, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23041686490486135 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.299873947943633, 0.0, 0.0010606664926521671, 0.0, 0.00021721036730799502, 0.0, 0.10719724868440655, 0.8144786686358294, 0.0, 0.7240981453804289, 0.2557444877755295, 0.5528956670558833, 1.0220685698191037, 0.0, 1.9730606178088639, 0.49436797932609083, 1.1081803074358128, 0.14815307227074576, 0.5161982865277531, 2.2431801999532914, 0.5325264647841693, 0.0, 0.17820523323797913, 0.4640091431973512, 0.02894350313162641, 0.0, 0.2561817719144067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.451436184721334, 0.24106033391707232, 1.0705010413582843, 0.4047094439074626, 0.9674771992373514, 1.5334517251861493, 0.13412314133870915, 0.669491570445271, 0.0028831904530317756, 0.0, 0.08103080185244539, 0.0, 0.00412801400445961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001435456002026656, 0.12432968075207142, 0.0, 0.0095357691321311, 0.0, 0.7732176109728021, 0.0, 0.0006116391588802215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007442701451381057, 0.005750651984612199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000390197396586153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008934406256051884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002984801894823708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005162769561062351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.866831632145788, "coverage": 0.9997774914130924, "baseline_score": 35.52518858382513, "spot_peer_score": 43.58464712359597, "peer_archived_score": 15.866831632145788, "baseline_archived_score": 35.52518858382513, "spot_peer_archived_score": 43.58464712359597 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614314104.310317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614314104.310317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8706406382139755, 0.1293593617860245 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 383, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SARS-CoV-2 var. B.1.1.7, the coronavirus strain first identified in the United Kingdom, is likely already seeded in most areas of the world. At question-writing time the community thinks it is [probably at least 50% more transmissible](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/) than previous strains. If so this is likely to have serious consequences. [The New York Times describes](https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/sns-nyt-new-virus-variant-response-20201231-o7ducojblzbnrli7jdneisnc2u-story.html) the situation as \"threatening to complicate what had seemed a hopeful, if halting, path to recovery\" and quotes an expert describing \"the overall picture\" as \"pretty grim.\"" }, { "id": 6102, "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?", "short_title": "Anti-5G attack to take life in 2021–2022", "url_title": "Anti-5G attack to take life in 2021–2022", "slug": "anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-31T19:52:23.954604Z", "published_at": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.525815Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6102, "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?", "created_at": "2020-12-31T19:52:23.954604Z", "open_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\n\n***Will an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?***\n\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\n\n[fine-print]\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6102, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648781367.129913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648781367.129913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10981226888160471 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.5204344719304759, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0239652281019926, 3.640689574840952, 0.15951999612965959, 0.290368511033008, 0.6537990378949874, 1.840494571501917, 0.77667890873543, 0.4868057477542032, 0.0, 0.060576540743882155, 0.5267268969447683, 0.7480359378131611, 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"label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter.\nAlso, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6094, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634238759.719375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1634238759.719375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.09697465594501689 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.012201096289221, 0.22800281084064822, 2.6224436935052093, 0.5286002354791806, 6.059554386831793, 0.38850425526999205, 1.8150415334673116, 0.9808647619866544, 1.1413330247296294, 0.8395290599821138, 0.014860655936507523, 0.16798014670616526, 1.228197839793981, 0.0, 2.2905040610187637, 0.27047727617364115, 0.0029145263043045353, 0.019459917080542444, 1.054882910197638, 0.013170328646083685, 0.0, 0.011478576801959023, 0.010149226833653095, 0.01187991204515221, 0.7784182457232726, 0.004297179538020401, 0.001233522765112239, 0.12568123884663884, 0.0, 0.08352512347916523, 0.44325134305746516, 0.21201469451707955, 0.0, 0.0019052974789183952, 0.019082042508901803, 0.10591757808243468, 0.1346091495339234, 0.0004950211749691881, 0.0, 0.0020975900457786685, 0.0, 0.01817726055091367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013942740538261209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000758576818055017, 0.0, 0.00011357513319223306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.325867420969763e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006657720224069577, 0.0006842313611207619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004631650286160704 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.404813379699867, "coverage": 0.9995334909334126, "baseline_score": 68.76851197108526, "spot_peer_score": 27.383697559541247, "peer_archived_score": 11.404813379699867, "baseline_archived_score": 68.76851197108526, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.383697559541247 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634238759.754476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1634238759.754476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9615015831370105, 0.03849841686298953 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 409, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter.\nAlso, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him." }, { "id": 6092, "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?", "short_title": "Consumer Price Index over 3% by 2024", "url_title": "Consumer Price Index over 3% by 2024", "slug": "consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024", "author_id": 115720, "author_username": "maraging", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-29T22:01:15.440143Z", "published_at": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.232913Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", "short_title": "Will Netanyahu win the March 2021 election?", "url_title": "Will Netanyahu win the March 2021 election?", "slug": "will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-27T19:17:59.464280Z", "published_at": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.432792Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-13T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-13T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": 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There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6074, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1616362793.38479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1616362793.38479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6740377529152162 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011172110363428878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022439783521457832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003845499144756756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16554862537279805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07308075876859561, 0.000232306222795137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005792631881401083, 0.06707450548903701, 0.5386119460434551, 0.21680398841730694, 0.0028601984992038193, 0.0, 0.92739121511684, 2.8159611506605717, 1.5046332189638072, 1.0487055720215397, 0.22376034879041926, 0.0, 1.1026447917808444, 0.1220157443505503, 2.703737486084268, 0.2316160270778109, 0.0, 2.293126179294253, 0.7037718043691616, 0.006403455023957831, 0.14746680690052788, 0.01176471256024448, 1.7318790553376089, 0.0, 0.37192191255964197, 0.021184045741895, 0.0, 0.0026455639968901027, 0.0017330930934730138, 0.010761927812866369, 0.7782969556472281, 0.0, 0.16647983709153444, 0.0, 0.0049732913477615855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7027805531718382 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -3.240813372187177, "coverage": 0.9985418381608491, "baseline_score": -50.48759909531149, "spot_peer_score": -0.9567114846038136, "peer_archived_score": -3.240813372187177, "baseline_archived_score": -50.48759909531149, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.9567114846038136 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1616362793.415797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1616362793.415797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.27385128169357886, 0.7261487183064211 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 279, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\n\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process." }, { "id": 6051, "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", "short_title": "Will Andrew Yang be the next mayor of NYC?", "url_title": "Will Andrew Yang be the next mayor of NYC?", "slug": "will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-26T17:29:28.226559Z", "published_at": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.140139Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 115, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-23T03:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-23T03:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-26T15:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-26T15:58:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 370, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6051, "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", "created_at": "2020-12-26T17:29:28.226559Z", "open_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-30T15:42:04.267895Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-30T15:42:04.267895Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-26T15:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-26T15:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-06-26T15:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-23T03:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-23T03:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/ \n\nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/", "resolution_criteria": "Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summar", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6051, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1624417396.600088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 369, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1624417396.600088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 369, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.13619771645662665 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 7.9356791377659235, 0.0, 0.8548693495548932, 4.209616747607471, 1.4052522493502444, 0.0, 1.4574166836202818, 0.55079769024349, 0.7576077120366171, 2.6167869745292, 0.49625962973330956, 0.7081621275934464, 0.9408951951345641, 0.7269766863882456, 2.9862874170703884, 0.529831052939576, 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President-Elect", "slug": "time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect", "author_id": 101911, "author_username": "tetraspace", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-26T13:14:18.531263Z", "published_at": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.642860Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 118, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": 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Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6049, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733582594.051369, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733582594.051369, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7487690898332393 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7550282799560074, 0.16185081422504058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07198474520841326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016433228040521938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10303875688674131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.056168459797005146, 0.37991944917164194, 0.0, 0.2455502849148396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0054857228089638665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8697272916366073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0236217822833125, 0.0, 0.03812750310025072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033358077258246556, 0.00047396543246213844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19853233297482636, 0.29416337668024306, 0.12369198613812141, 0.0074423096365470506, 0.0004528338995242799, 0.22303769845999205, 1.1797837166050769, 0.01034082290967558, 0.14063996307661827, 0.0, 0.005361203438926529, 0.06798639675485277, 0.04638926826110738, 0.2894598739322003, 0.17071567728324702, 0.8900241105654653, 0.45032932144979543, 0.19311899016110534, 0.0, 0.0, 4.082419584118191, 0.5851580567934807, 0.35516907099145173, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0970178775499737, 0.1625688253293538, 0.5155463823190385, 0.1938280289470346, 0.0, 1.8236706495968098, 0.0, 0.2941542191743736, 0.0005530683110029844, 0.5939122573645118, 0.42030297642605724, 0.0, 0.23791964062810292, 0.9547323761971137, 0.7679933817971787 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.01736983328183, "peer_score": 10.440716274276511, "coverage": 0.9997187953523788, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997187953523788, "spot_peer_score": -11.442078621442363, "baseline_archived_score": 56.01736983328183, "peer_archived_score": 10.440716274276511, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.442078621442363 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288589.278171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288589.278171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2478479656726319, 0.7521520343273681 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 354, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\n\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932." }, { "id": 6047, "title": "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?", "short_title": "$1M lost in prediction market", "url_title": "$1M lost in prediction market", "slug": "1m-lost-in-prediction-market", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-26T01:21:06.238639Z", "published_at": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.989234Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-02-02T01:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-02T01:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:11:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6047, "title": "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?", "created_at": "2020-12-26T01:21:06.238639Z", "open_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T18:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-02T01:20:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-02-02T01:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.\n\nSome crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do *not* count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count *unless* the prediction platform in question was primarily used with a stablecoin tied to a major fiat currency, and that stablecoin ended up hacked/locked/significantly lower value/etc.\n\nThe $1 million can be from multiple different events, as long as it's on a single platform or site", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6047, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643760257.271632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643760257.271632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.27574746453276533 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00742799989072429, 0.06088089268499084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.050719975180017585, 0.36126950895310606, 1.0961212600450123, 1.164392932889008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6509344506122218, 0.4140037073532131, 0.0, 0.0, 1.650627818822688, 0.018360843921658133, 1.8537112554026125, 0.7110633149424628, 0.9464567382568516, 0.4746689620432942, 0.0, 0.6824623082254428, 1.3959267179735857, 0.0031317726059439627, 0.29907146206904744, 0.01618032019129673, 0.0, 0.018175126021569836, 0.04618511849820684, 0.45800902001178867, 0.02273102448084273, 1.3710098495157883, 0.16379137886358097, 1.0916728810036165, 0.0, 0.07921034496113237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02035427510390197, 0.0006320132079752626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05561097582467904, 0.0, 0.006409490637180558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04554848344593153 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643760257.297311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643760257.297311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8347390786848893, 0.1652609213151107 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 157, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.\n\nSome crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect." }, { "id": 6031, "title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?", "short_title": ">30% transmissible variant to infect >10M?", "url_title": ">30% transmissible variant to infect >10M?", "slug": "30-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-24T23:16:41.173614Z", "published_at": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.328895Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-29T22:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-29T22:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-21T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-21T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 201, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6031, "title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?", "created_at": "2020-12-24T23:16:41.173614Z", "open_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-28T02:01:17.508287Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-28T02:01:17.508287Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-21T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-21T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-11-21T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-29T22:16:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-29T22:16:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\n\n> We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\n\n\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\n\n> The evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].", "resolution_criteria": "-----\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\n\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\n\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\n\nSee this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).", "fine_print": "- In the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n\n- Only evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n\n- Meta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research).", "post_id": 6031, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625004409.10548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 201, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625004409.10548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 201, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.937396419399246 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005703599265900526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030843340593091177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007827846602287353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.348330731080103e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011577829048123232, 1.8928122369242921e-06, 0.001116848403321057, 0.10423872361202101, 0.0, 0.034221688768565406, 3.801815007340431e-05, 0.9706444155440368, 0.0, 0.052210340051294477, 0.07311928418323359, 0.0, 0.5405395998246671, 0.0, 0.6049239401708155, 0.009512167148328369, 5.443256645138825e-05, 0.13068990216712456, 0.00876715933572464, 0.0003589064169924324, 0.06310877532915328, 0.11965937912595104, 1.4729508449875297, 0.9092499056497163, 1.7234946955194055, 1.8548907848543013, 3.2300788466535524, 4.706194540712483, 1.318189985484234, 0.24605738801530486, 1.882613461105176, 6.760474776535936 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.679813908885275, "coverage": 0.9999509674651663, "baseline_score": 86.25217574589753, "spot_peer_score": -0.09443781664880961, "peer_archived_score": 5.679813908885275, "baseline_archived_score": 86.25217574589753, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.09443781664880961 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625004409.157894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 201, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625004409.157894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 201, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.04329821188249172, 0.9567017881175083 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 34, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 626, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\n\n> We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\n\n\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\n\n> The evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2]." }, { "id": 6028, "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economics be awarded for MMT before 2041?", "short_title": "Nobel Prize for MMT by 2041", "url_title": "Nobel Prize for MMT by 2041", "slug": "nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041", "author_id": 104079, "author_username": "thewaler", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-24T16:39:26.357983Z", "published_at": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.281279Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6028, "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economics be awarded for MMT before 2041?", "created_at": "2020-12-24T16:39:26.357983Z", "open_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-01T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\n\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before January 1, 2041 where both of these conditions are true:\n\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\n\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if no Nobel Prize is awarded which satisfies those conditions. 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2954, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.119970Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.944809Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2954, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series", "slug": null, 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