Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5100
{ "count": 6403, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5120", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5080", "results": [ { "id": 6023, "title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?", "short_title": "Charity in China to be ACE Top Ranked", "url_title": "Charity in China to be ACE Top Ranked", "slug": "charity-in-china-to-be-ace-top-ranked", "author_id": 112451, "author_username": "NunoSempere", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-24T10:23:21.133747Z", "published_at": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.845242Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T10:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T10:34:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2954, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.119970Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.944809Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2954, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.119970Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.944809Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6023, "title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?", "created_at": "2020-12-24T10:23:21.133747Z", "open_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T10:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T10:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-29T10:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\". \n\nAs of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below \"Top Charity\".", "resolution_criteria": "By \"primarily operating in China\" we mean that at least half of their efforts or finances are spent on their work in China. For example, [ProVeg International](https://proveg.com/) works in China but doesn't meet this criterion. However, a recommendation by ACE to ProVeg restricted to their work in China would qualify. This criterion is subject to reasonable interpretation; in ambiguous cases, the view of ACE will decide resolution. \n\nThe question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in [ACE's recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/)", "fine_print": "This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.", "post_id": 6023, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640982783.751483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640982783.751483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.19406037532596518 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4784214783390885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6831013776873005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5614386062030777, 1.5241070816719129, 1.1956559827107582, 0.0817249029010311, 0.6800219587945666, 0.3217261638678274, 0.9396406647936779, 1.1276196174150441, 0.0, 0.2831092779713952, 0.6522478352429131, 0.013291901200468375, 0.2058884628671278, 0.0, 0.0482128835796349, 0.003650949509915334, 0.0, 1.58608091142966, 0.0, 0.14297797317939187, 0.0, 0.18337086635620353, 1.0096600712833605, 0.0, 0.5399607323264448, 0.777238463870146, 0.05692018101548274, 0.01946471143816275, 0.0, 0.4477572793153093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03081720770343554, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02464062427608051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008689560138641658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.909175515759621, "coverage": 0.9990373726424373, "baseline_score": 60.419341652637506, "spot_peer_score": 14.458342795078718, "peer_archived_score": 10.909175515759621, "baseline_archived_score": 60.419341652637506, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.458342795078718 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640982783.775234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640982783.775234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9025803137375049, 0.09741968626249507 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 172, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\". \n\nAs of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below \"Top Charity\"." }, { "id": 6021, "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?", "short_title": "CE to incubate ACE-recommended NGO by 2025", "url_title": "CE to incubate ACE-recommended NGO by 2025", "slug": "ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025", "author_id": 112451, "author_username": "NunoSempere", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-24T10:14:10.787677Z", "published_at": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.847370Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-22T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-22T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2954, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.119970Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.944809Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2954, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.119970Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.944809Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6021, "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2020-12-24T10:14:10.787677Z", "open_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-22T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-22T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-22T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \n\nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".", "resolution_criteria": "Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.", "post_id": 6021, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1669678818.133954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7760481320193725 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1669678818.133954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7760481320193725 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8610579012036474 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12463453052827422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019676189570906492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12515686566763357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7208983586196582, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015538817933844495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21853552773755514, 0.0, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5373943049018439, 0.5029882706621958, 0.41773359555817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5019363167041926, 0.0, 0.3445918901109067, 0.3933977868034193, 0.0, 1.3803434167958424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.330752611253724, 0.31210550135292425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.8239369765259945 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.906090443349779, "coverage": 0.47328763300129123, "baseline_score": 23.67818632234418, "spot_peer_score": -15.619089518800536, "peer_archived_score": 5.906090443349779, "baseline_archived_score": 23.67818632234418, "spot_peer_archived_score": -15.619089518800536 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1668845026.751237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1668845026.751237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.210096091406202, 0.789903908593798 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 118, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \n\nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\"." }, { "id": 6020, "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?", "short_title": "Charity Entrepreneurship to birth top ACE NGO", "url_title": "Charity Entrepreneurship to birth top ACE NGO", "slug": "charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo", "author_id": 112451, "author_username": "NunoSempere", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-24T10:10:20.756063Z", "published_at": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.609899Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T03:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T03:31:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2954, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.119970Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.944809Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2954, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.119970Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.944809Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6020, "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2020-12-24T10:10:20.756063Z", "open_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T03:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T03:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T03:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \n\nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluating Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".", "resolution_criteria": "Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2022.", "fine_print": "This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.", "post_id": 6020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640984471.583995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640984471.583995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02956176223098634 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.125378959850105, 0.6326680595244999, 0.0, 0.289164863003369, 0.5521707312792997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8245956564854738, 0.0, 0.31167199523019246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.448009849128789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001034323308801349, 0.0, 0.014003379319251127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028115822550663413, 0.034499107279890764, 0.0, 0.006437720576519247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00977005631511322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015651176037633063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.55364181690411, "coverage": 0.9990469953639803, "baseline_score": 21.749056817266005, "spot_peer_score": -5.610867491206642, "peer_archived_score": 1.55364181690411, "baseline_archived_score": 21.749056817266005, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.610867491206642 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640984471.608457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640984471.608457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9863221252450054, 0.013677874754994558 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 168, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \n\nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluating Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\"." }, { "id": 6018, "title": "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?", "short_title": "Burger King to cease using gestation stalls?", "url_title": "Burger King to cease using gestation stalls?", "slug": "burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls", "author_id": 112451, "author_username": "NunoSempere", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-24T10:01:17.269884Z", "published_at": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.166366Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T10:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T10:02:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2954, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.119970Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.944809Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2954, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.119970Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.944809Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 6018, "title": "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2020-12-24T10:01:17.269884Z", "open_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T10:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T10:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T10:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated:\n\n> “Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.”\n \nA gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gestation_crate))\n\nSee: [Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XdekdWJWkkhur9gvr/will-companies-meet-their-animal-welfare-commitments) for a sceptical perspective.", "resolution_criteria": "Question will resolve according to popular media reports, or according to an announcement by Restaurant Brands International which contains unambiguous language (\"we have made progress towards our commitment\" would resolve negatively, whereas \"globally, we are only sourcing pork from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls\" would resolve positively). \n\nIf the result is unknown or unverified, the question resolves negatively, with the assumption being that any change would be well publicised.", "fine_print": "This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.", "post_id": 6018, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640989493.99411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640989493.99411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.038528835003169 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 13.934263793200243, 0.008934832410362489, 0.12471029896800336, 0.0796811826523193, 0.439121647959661, 0.0, 0.005228157946939775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019820235604868452, 0.0060225374110303345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01010533010201989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012091980749280742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20672425844473, 0.0, 0.03569898293040236, 0.05894360581142025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7953053805361899, 0.0, 0.018192304256507193, 0.0, 0.00092497201079239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006731217591434027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19267892523477537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00044483911207012384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018954326705900848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.252105079253127, "coverage": 0.9990529340372872, "baseline_score": 87.32741034057585, "spot_peer_score": 5.3659205008163395, "peer_archived_score": 13.252105079253127, "baseline_archived_score": 87.32741034057585, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.3659205008163395 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640989494.015667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640989494.015667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 166, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated:\n\n> “Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.”\n \nA gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gestation_crate))\n\nSee: [Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XdekdWJWkkhur9gvr/will-companies-meet-their-animal-welfare-commitments) for a sceptical perspective." }, { "id": 6008, "title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?", "short_title": "United States CDC to recommend revaccination.", "url_title": "United States CDC to recommend revaccination.", "slug": "united-states-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination", "author_id": 111714, "author_username": "beala", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-20T17:38:58.569390Z", "published_at": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.678675Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-04T23:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-04T23:10:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 187, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6008, "title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?", "created_at": "2020-12-20T17:38:58.569390Z", "open_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-22T18:09:06.757581Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-22T18:09:06.757581Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-04T23:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-04T23:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-04T23:10:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\n\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\n\n> The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\n> \n> Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\n> \n> Peacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\n\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.", "fine_print": "- The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered.\n- The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation.\n- Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation.\n- If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution.", "post_id": 6008, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641336887.888581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641336887.888581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.7705245742763326 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 7.108112656424486e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6223609175730574e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.734754082427822e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001007711578029817, 0.0, 2.3120420394383268e-05, 0.003893025249116818, 0.0, 0.00201725064394851, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3688359006757206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007510385073336159, 0.006640684102386213, 0.000722108954163444, 0.21215488568801041, 0.0, 2.7193932728159274e-05, 0.0, 0.27614568856025445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001544230188590699, 0.4239548322663266, 0.13949535755708767, 0.0036496901805189177, 0.0009034349800533363, 0.0, 0.30580784420901275, 0.4262089855330098, 0.0015440857303482237, 1.0547790305394629, 0.0024945458676773574, 0.008821861108594614, 1.003612920138977, 0.682766353462118, 1.5639504510993003, 0.08630893337855262, 0.3543095064111406, 3.503811062099194, 0.0, 0.003960727527755753, 0.05503858207027844, 0.0012669335049737324, 1.2684359958354863, 0.29973696506747344, 0.04760819907914538, 0.000547372867778377, 0.9411435170909956, 2.044093849354744, 1.4861608089774436, 0.8508773471205795, 0.14616062534278224, 0.0, 1.1099877834117438, 0.03576756154644359, 0.05890825452251014, 0.00135530803374134, 0.8379541219260086, 2.3130265634640077, 0.026651263728025253, 1.3886787108733896, 0.0, 0.529199643303069, 1.0334442890586097, 0.28220523609374765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6564503265342327 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.24096156888518, "coverage": 0.5578979111265588, "baseline_score": 29.513194132597924, "spot_peer_score": 23.36455448562937, "peer_archived_score": 11.24096156888518, "baseline_archived_score": 29.513194132597924, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.36455448562937 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641336887.971362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641336887.971362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2527728715723171, 0.7472271284276829 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 41, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 592, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\n\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\n\n> The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\n> \n> Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\n> \n> Peacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\n\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is." }, { "id": 6007, "title": "Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?", "short_title": "Vaccine update due to mutation?", "url_title": "Vaccine update due to mutation?", "slug": "vaccine-update-due-to-mutation", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-20T17:37:53.635512Z", "published_at": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.070190Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-02-25T22:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-25T22:27:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 124, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6007, "title": "Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?", "created_at": "2020-12-20T17:37:53.635512Z", "open_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-22T12:27:11.776072Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-22T12:27:11.776072Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-25T22:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-25T22:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-25T22:27:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There are already several notable variants of SARS-COV-2 circulating, two of the highest profile are described below.\n\nIn Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. \n\nOn 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. Three days later, in response, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55056375) a new set of national restrictions, including a \"Tier 4\" full lockdown across the southeast, and considerable curtailment of the plans to ease restrictions for 5 days over the Christmas period.\n\nIt is at least in principle possible that a mutation to SARS-COV-2 could reduce the efficacy of current vaccines. \n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if and only if there is a credible media report before 2023 that Moderna, Pfizer, BioNTech, University of Oxford, or AstraZeneca have produced at least one dose of an updated vaccine targeting SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). The report must mention that one reason for the update was a mutation. The dose does not have to be administered, and no trials need to be planned.", "fine_print": "- The report can mention more than one reason for updating the vaccine, as long as one of those reasons is a mutation.\n\n- The vaccine does not need to be approved before the resolution date.\n\n- Some of these vaccines were developed in a partnership between two companies. The updated vaccine doesn’t need to be part of the same partnership. For example, if AstraZeneca starts working on an updated vaccine independently, that is sufficient for positive resolution.", "post_id": 6007, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614262683.315518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614262683.315518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9621283834807819 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007013206346315724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016892782878247082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001140110852669517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001276807099804374, 0.00020555900945906638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001364624942955446, 0.0, 0.001014978307598649, 0.689132206784827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002389886957995197, 0.0005367503601643788, 0.0014258986524852079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010274499796835188, 0.0, 0.0029795917258596664, 0.0, 0.0019328221249491613, 0.0025666425735358465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017648365442997007, 0.6032745295797064, 0.0054103096965415435, 0.001956595628661629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037966331594684313, 0.004213180814029369, 0.0180792555964551, 0.006391628476796793, 0.008805273388987817, 0.0, 0.027340901808632183, 0.17295960549219036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05891159776319859, 0.014886128163948754, 0.08258915430159713, 0.06657814206785133, 0.0026336717521666594, 0.886483249112195, 0.956004920238847, 0.03833005933264137, 0.6790822829889364, 16.419442889260004 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.2880410351827964, "coverage": 0.10671166822431696, "baseline_score": 7.4357475476965496, "spot_peer_score": 34.261700204573394, "peer_archived_score": 1.2880410351827964, "baseline_archived_score": 7.4357475476965496, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.261700204573394 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1614262683.366733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1614262683.366733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03485779467383632, 0.9651422053261637 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 315, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are already several notable variants of SARS-COV-2 circulating, two of the highest profile are described below.\n\nIn Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. \n\nOn 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. Three days later, in response, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55056375) a new set of national restrictions, including a \"Tier 4\" full lockdown across the southeast, and considerable curtailment of the plans to ease restrictions for 5 days over the Christmas period.\n\nIt is at least in principle possible that a mutation to SARS-COV-2 could reduce the efficacy of current vaccines. \n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 6001, "title": "How will the Longbets \"bioerror\" question resolve?", "short_title": "Longbets bioerror question", "url_title": "Longbets bioerror question", "slug": "longbets-bioerror-question", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-18T21:09:23.978081Z", "published_at": "2020-12-21T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.748348Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-21T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:42:39.412000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-21T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6001, "title": "How will the Longbets \"bioerror\" question resolve?", "created_at": "2020-12-18T21:09:23.978081Z", "open_time": "2020-12-21T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-23T01:12:19.097834Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-23T01:12:19.097834Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:42:39.412000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-18T07:47:05.931870Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In an interesting case study of the dangers of making an ambiguous bet, [on Longbets](https://longbets.org/9/) Martin Rees bet Steven Pinker that,\n\n> A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020.\n\nGiven the ambiguity of what \"bioerror\" means, some have speculated in the comment section that the [current coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) should qualify. Rees had specified that,\n\n> By \"bioerror\", I mean something which has the same effect as a terror attack, but rises from inadvertance rather than evil intent.\n\nand Longbets clarified,\n\n> Casualties will be defined by WHO, CDC, or BPHS, whoever has the highest numbers. Casualties should ideally include \"victims requiring hospitalization\" and not include indirect deaths caused by the pathogen, although ultimately Long Now will rely on the criteria set by the above organizations for determining casualties to adjudicate this bet.\n\nPinker was worried about the resolution criteria,\n\n> We'd need definitions of \"casualty\" (death, permanent disability, or just infection?), \"bioterror\" (state-sponsored? apolitical vengeance/spree killing?) and \"bioerror\" (I assume a mere lack of preparedness doesn't count). But that shouldn't be too hard.\n\nUnfortunately, it's not clear that Pinker's worries were addressed. The procedure for resolving bets is outlined [here](https://longbets.org/procedure/).", "resolution_criteria": "If Longbets declares Martin Rees the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If Steven Pinker is resolved the winner of the bet, then this question resolves negatively. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 6001, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609379136.515532, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609379136.515532, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.18424559509609137 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.11980469871044437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0703122779553333, 0.0, 1.6323595050033717, 0.0, 0.1516622826293349, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9436408847553766, 0.0, 0.28794148447432993, 0.0, 0.053483974712060484, 0.09614700440857778, 1.9014605783309075, 0.5616195868749356, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 1.880108636255177, 0.01096609333389573, 0.0, 0.6814745982427798, 0.0, 0.26027447991622393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18967896317068483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1448963947553962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 60.914713541088155, "peer_score": -2.5606252984829956, "coverage": 0.9758864154272057, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9758864154272057, "spot_peer_score": 4.292236415197878, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 60.914713541088155, "peer_archived_score": -2.5606252984829956, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.292236415197878, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609379136.536138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609379136.536138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9461847162025487, 0.05381528379745121 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In an interesting case study of the dangers of making an ambiguous bet, [on Longbets](https://longbets.org/9/) Martin Rees bet Steven Pinker that,\n\n> A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020.\n\nGiven the ambiguity of what \"bioerror\" means, some have speculated in the comment section that the [current coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) should qualify. Rees had specified that,\n\n> By \"bioerror\", I mean something which has the same effect as a terror attack, but rises from inadvertance rather than evil intent.\n\nand Longbets clarified,\n\n> Casualties will be defined by WHO, CDC, or BPHS, whoever has the highest numbers. Casualties should ideally include \"victims requiring hospitalization\" and not include indirect deaths caused by the pathogen, although ultimately Long Now will rely on the criteria set by the above organizations for determining casualties to adjudicate this bet.\n\nPinker was worried about the resolution criteria,\n\n> We'd need definitions of \"casualty\" (death, permanent disability, or just infection?), \"bioterror\" (state-sponsored? apolitical vengeance/spree killing?) and \"bioerror\" (I assume a mere lack of preparedness doesn't count). But that shouldn't be too hard.\n\nUnfortunately, it's not clear that Pinker's worries were addressed. The procedure for resolving bets is outlined [here](https://longbets.org/procedure/)." }, { "id": 6000, "title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?", "short_title": "Lives saved by #SecondDoseDelay for vaccine", "url_title": "Lives saved by #SecondDoseDelay for vaccine", "slug": "lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine", "author_id": 112326, "author_username": "thatMikeBishop", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-18T20:56:22.445495Z", "published_at": "2021-01-03T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.970374Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-03T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-02T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-02T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-18T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-18T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-03T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 127, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 6000, "title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?", "created_at": "2020-12-18T20:56:22.445495Z", "open_time": "2021-01-03T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-04T17:00:24.069321Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-04T17:00:24.069321Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-18T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-18T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-02-18T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-02T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-02T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. \n\nThe effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. \n\n[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):\n\n> For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.", "resolution_criteria": "Question resolves \"Yes\" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? \n\nThe relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. \n\nQuestion will resolve \"No\" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.\n\nQuestion receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for \"Yes\" or \"No\" are met. 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This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. \n\nThe effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. \n\n[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):\n\n> For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day." }, { "id": 5995, "title": "For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?", "short_title": "Will US peak unemployment in 2021 be in Q1?", "url_title": "Will US peak unemployment in 2021 be in Q1?", "slug": "will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-17T21:28:58.150998Z", "published_at": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.030847Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-31T20:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-31T20:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-07T15:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-07T15:46:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5995, "title": "For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?", "created_at": "2020-12-17T21:28:58.150998Z", "open_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-22T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-22T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-07T15:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-07T15:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-07T15:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-31T20:26:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-31T20:26:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "#Context\n\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. \n\nHeading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over [300,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) with over [2,500](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths) new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can [push cities back into lockdown](https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/), causing economic duress and a potential return to higher unemployment rates like we saw in Q2 of 2020. \n\nHowever, as the new vaccine makes its way across America and herd immunity becomes an attainable goal, more people should be able to return to work. As the economy opens and consumption increases, putting money back into the hands of corporations, [employment should increase](https://news.umich.edu/u-m-economists-see-us-growth-slowing-until-coronavirus-vaccine-becomes-broadly-available/).\n\n***For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly unemployment occur within Q1?***\n\n#Resolution Criteria\n\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5995, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622435813.066224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622435813.066224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 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for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). 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confident 2021 will go ahead'](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55315202).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if a Glastonbury Festival with at least 100,000 people present and lasting at least 72 hours takes place in Pilton, Somerset in 2021. 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27th June 2021](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-glastonbury-festival/#FAQ).\n\nThe organisers are ['doing everything they can' to make the festival go ahead in 2021, but are 'still quite a long way from being able to say we're confident 2021 will go ahead'](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55315202)." }, { "id": 5979, "title": "Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?", "short_title": "CA Gov Newsom petitioned for recall election", "url_title": "CA Gov Newsom petitioned for recall election", "slug": "ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-15T18:18:04.845353Z", "published_at": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.087647Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 104, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-01T18:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-01T18:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-04-27T00:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-04-27T00:30:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 189, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5979, "title": "Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?", "created_at": "2020-12-15T18:18:04.845353Z", "open_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-27T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-27T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-04-27T00:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-04-27T00:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-04-27T00:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-01T18:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-01T18:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "An effort to recall California Gov. 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"", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\n\n***Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?***\n\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. 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[Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. 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[Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). 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RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). 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All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting." }, { "id": 5916, "title": "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?", "short_title": "2021 hottest year on record", "url_title": "2021 hottest year on record", "slug": "2021-hottest-year-on-record", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-11T23:09:22.019982Z", "published_at": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.022356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-14T01:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-14T01:41:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 201, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1730, "type": "tournament", "name": "Economist 2021", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-nastyasensei-335393.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-12-11T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-06-21T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1730, "type": "tournament", "name": "Economist 2021", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-nastyasensei-335393.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-12-11T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-06-21T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5916, "title": "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?", "created_at": "2020-12-11T23:09:22.019982Z", "open_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-12T21:14:34.480264Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-12T21:14:34.480264Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-14T01:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-14T01:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-14T01:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. 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