Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5120
{ "count": 6403, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5140", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5100", "results": [ { "id": 5886, "title": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?", "short_title": "Will the first female POTUS be Republican?", "url_title": "Will the first female POTUS be Republican?", "slug": "will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-10T04:49:44.137617Z", "published_at": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T08:20:12.814342Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 151, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5886, "title": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?", "created_at": "2020-12-10T04:49:44.137617Z", "open_time": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-29T18:37:56.454128Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-29T18:37:56.454128Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.\n\nAs of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. \n\nThroughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. \n\nThe Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. \n\nThe Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).", "resolution_criteria": "For a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.", "fine_print": "If there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.", "post_id": 5886, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763799602.498122, "end_time": 1765417955.80909, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763799602.498122, "end_time": 1765417955.80909, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.20917872316506783 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6237826811596965, 0.14964417993611692, 0.0, 0.0, 2.038889659620083, 0.21049389974575045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.412647000064588, 0.9314260077645516, 2.2056257646254824, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3081951048451779, 0.08926193309951222, 0.0, 0.01314477978390478, 0.06518019908610057, 1.162912595878952, 0.007450345017332388, 0.0, 0.0018474598062165907, 0.6976045232148063, 0.0036299471055801402, 0.45427099330292525, 0.37177796839822896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.263787855572598, 0.003924187352744774, 0.0, 0.9509072984463497, 0.5692379681276284, 0.0, 0.2172936457306401, 0.008225835367758692, 0.002413899980160883, 0.0, 1.559592340611558, 0.0, 0.38472633077366164, 0.0, 0.3637456136380775, 0.30675771358978204, 0.4067750550550023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029317064239350037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.264555098910889, 0.01568685324934101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19142031140958948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007075207321053673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012006953225304347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004394686938744043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287880.32433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287880.32433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9185366214525744, 0.08146337854742558 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 488, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.\n\nAs of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. \n\nThroughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. \n\nThe Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. \n\nThe Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election)." }, { "id": 5885, "title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?", "short_title": "Elon Musk Lands on Moon by 2030", "url_title": "Elon Musk Lands on Moon by 2030", "slug": "elon-musk-lands-on-moon-by-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-09T07:04:28.259759Z", "published_at": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T18:59:28.905429Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 266, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5885, "title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?", "created_at": "2020-12-09T07:04:28.259759Z", "open_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-18T06:06:21.473533Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-18T06:06:21.473533Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\n\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\n\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\n\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\n\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\n\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.", "fine_print": "UTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution.", "post_id": 5885, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762973958.589055, "end_time": 1764398844.708318, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762973958.589055, "end_time": 1764398844.708318, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.012493616136973987 ], "histogram": [ [ 19.5932325121155, 2.560894912450256, 0.40322713610543615, 0.07309685756934389, 0.7493141314420363, 0.28340050182930054, 0.0015728598477720507, 0.015827688483296694, 0.012118043789279236, 0.00024018225670960634, 0.10929876530150995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.590499466577849e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004301680379088785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.641808786025291e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016941777548135258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1642692424810451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004954242696211895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1367508463765832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002187430359376599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005213968319185086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289225.107017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 247, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289225.107017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 247, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 604, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\n\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\n\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\n\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\n\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses." }, { "id": 5884, "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", "short_title": "PACER to become free", "url_title": "PACER to become free", "slug": "pacer-to-become-free", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-08T23:48:08.134793Z", "published_at": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.719680Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:09:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5884, "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", "created_at": "2020-12-08T23:48:08.134793Z", "open_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-27T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-27T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T08:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. 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"forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5883, "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?", "created_at": "2020-12-08T10:46:52.063449Z", "open_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-20T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-10-05T10:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-05T10:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-05T10:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \n\nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \n\nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \n\nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\n\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\n\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n\n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\n\nThe question will resolve retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5883, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1633065398.65832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1633065398.65832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.7192334080930238 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5866254225570329, 0.0, 0.7967257341582491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3315566481982992, 0.1296267078906556, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7562152755339581, 0.08612305201977583, 0.1836082184893617, 0.06938252827916373, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031007312830417258, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.245854402216457 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -1.5921874796281692, "coverage": 0.999552353638742, "baseline_score": -3.946549490705308, "spot_peer_score": 15.840086045695003, "peer_archived_score": -1.5921874796281692, "baseline_archived_score": -3.946549490705308, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.840086045695003 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1633044818.629551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1633044818.629551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6371448194107341, 0.3628551805892659 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 127, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \n\nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \n\nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \n\nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\n\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\n\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n\n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )" }, { "id": 5882, "title": "Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?", "short_title": "2024 US election considered fraudulent?", "url_title": "2024 US election considered fraudulent?", "slug": "2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-08T06:42:09.616451Z", "published_at": "2020-12-10T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.131060Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-10T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 122, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-20T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T18:38:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-10T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 308, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5882, "title": "Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?", "created_at": "2020-12-08T06:42:09.616451Z", "open_time": "2020-12-10T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-11T00:56:21.948000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-11T00:56:21.948000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-20T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T18:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-16T18:48:13.301623Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\n\n> Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purpose of this question, the \"losing party\" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,\n\n* The losing candidate states that they consider the election result \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if thesaurus.com lists \"fraud\", \"fraudulent\", or \"rigged\" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.\n\n* The losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.\n\n* Fewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.\n\n* A survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was \"probably\" or \"definitely\" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).\n\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, a network is said to have \"projected\" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of \"projected\" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection.", "post_id": 5882, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730424555.016172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 307, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730424555.016172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 307, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5679006859720226 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00013770807581074598, 0.0, 0.037869523519181436, 0.0, 5.80638307851907e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.483841353629038e-05, 0.00010570956231808326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5937423631430933, 4.882208662054256e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00468645626188798, 0.0, 4.086580203076035e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039149221131070576, 0.00018836225555911523, 7.035363359782415e-06, 0.21933932284772184, 0.0, 0.05513814270287648, 0.011393478777145815, 0.3068854188489629, 0.02006540409938388, 0.12941894276965338, 0.6776178141561217, 0.004108532835456143, 0.37252666261151224, 0.40326242830721604, 0.14946984938587363, 0.12372680111883724, 0.0006608315157659041, 0.2887464721260695, 0.8991301493195337, 0.01269489824188601, 1.22863655589885, 0.05000779320491279, 1.1446548977754576, 1.2277384915818523, 0.06849831204420662, 3.112266496116213, 1.0686570277766436, 1.2411529206885388, 1.1632817006865093, 0.28303680663063757, 1.8260311948793864, 2.409836242395978, 0.9007822228338209, 0.16444455414975664, 0.8179881800941378, 2.7634270475213922, 0.07522765572378888, 0.6675288295445185, 0.5766361338332606, 0.16128192613380526, 1.976881053042907, 0.21225126582829257, 0.0, 0.04354671983678568, 0.0008014318460570797, 0.7352948351543614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018428475767145118, 0.18001605726256614, 1.7905196560360312, 0.0, 0.004346564594270663, 0.2976285526339112, 0.0, 1.368219541036241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6912259488512787, 0.0, 0.22532850348980676, 0.0, 0.0008408401738597906, 0.07027446883353707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14014659713486427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5047964128264883 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 3.2178518230953803, "peer_score": 2.6243389050011, "coverage": 0.9999981385887026, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999981385887026, "spot_peer_score": 2.63562934066509, "baseline_archived_score": 3.2178518230953803, "peer_archived_score": 2.6243389050011, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.63562934066509 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287377.603727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 307, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287377.603727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 307, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6484206094619333, 0.35157939053806675 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 43, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 822, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\n\n> Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition." }, { "id": 5875, "title": "Will online poker be dead on January 1, 2031?", "short_title": "Online Poker Dead by 2031", "url_title": "Online Poker Dead by 2031", "slug": "online-poker-dead-by-2031", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-07T01:31:59.446464Z", "published_at": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T15:35:19.510663Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 187, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T11:57:02.614553Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T11:57:02.614553Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5875, "title": "Will online poker be dead on January 1, 2031?", "created_at": "2020-12-07T01:31:59.446464Z", "open_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-10T15:26:12.411825Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-10T15:26:12.411825Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\n\n>Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\n\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\n\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n\n>“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\n\nAccording to https://www.pokerscout.com/, as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if on January 1, 2031, there are fewer than two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1,000 cash players online at some point in the month of December 2030, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes.", "fine_print": "If there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this question will resolve as **No** if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \n\nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020.", "post_id": 5875, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763134509.010506, "end_time": 1766114078.148419, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763134509.010506, "end_time": 1766114078.148419, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.09714459386247098 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6585879983876319, 4.375535135399202, 0.9365636750476695, 1.9253180986336529, 2.3939824618896575, 2.3059473992167296, 1.052661610108799, 0.005880702376811162, 0.49926742989202055, 0.178190006662941, 1.706426469216828, 0.14341885553204323, 1.3526622891515196, 0.19179102929123373, 0.04711046237704074, 0.296039497138575, 0.9843557749151287, 0.0003732381283490339, 0.15528778860165848, 0.1709730893949412, 0.9482768848503524, 0.015854564049884626, 8.455329680677371e-05, 0.0021400177072241205, 0.07729124454058445, 0.05367794092673577, 0.0, 0.13703282051911475, 0.9291102170850273, 0.0, 0.20217910355326846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001430542742881062, 0.0006047326536319275, 0.28564926296927556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4026098742329095, 0.0, 0.2608590320824648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.6927441333251805e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0342251423215965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04522424072888563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11007915118337182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029791588046008635 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288596.42002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288596.42002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9488948273109693, 0.051105172689030746 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 483, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\n\n>Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\n\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\n\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n\n>“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\n\nAccording to https://www.pokerscout.com/, as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours." }, { "id": 5866, "title": "Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?", "short_title": "Longbets: low unemployment but high LFPR 2025", "url_title": "Longbets: low unemployment but high LFPR 2025", "slug": "longbets-low-unemployment-but-high-lfpr-2025", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-06T19:05:04.942505Z", "published_at": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.936501Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:26:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5866, "title": "Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?", "created_at": "2020-12-06T19:05:04.942505Z", "open_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-11T05:34:25.434372Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-11T05:34:25.434372Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-18T19:00:36.908897Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/).\n\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\n\n> Increasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the \"robots are killing our jobs\" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward.\n\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\n\n> The United States will certainly experience a recession in the next six years. As a result, the workforce participation rate will fall below 60 percent and this time, automation and de-industrialization will keep it there at least through June 2025.\n\n***Will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent??***\n\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. 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null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/).\n\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\n\n> U.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the \"low hanging fruit has been picked.\" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the \"s-curve\" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)\n\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\n\n> We have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history.\n\n***Will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?***\n\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. 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"forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5848, "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?", "created_at": "2020-12-04T02:57:05.266682Z", "open_time": "2020-12-07T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-07T19:58:10.434063Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-07T19:58:10.434063Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-04T00:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-04T00:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-04T00:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-01T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\n\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\n\n***Will the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n\n- the 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n\n- the 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n\n- Donald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n\n- Joe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n\n- Donald Trump won in 2020\n\n- Joe Biden lost in 2020\n\nThis question resolves negatively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\n\n[fine-print]\nNovember is defined according to UTC\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5848, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625171938.960535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 145, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625171938.960535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 145, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7915295961489126 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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false, "description": "" }, { "id": 5844, "title": "Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?", "short_title": "Electoral College Results Challenged?", "url_title": "Electoral College Results Challenged?", "slug": "electoral-college-results-challenged", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-03T18:58:05.511339Z", "published_at": "2020-12-10T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.799440Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-10T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-06T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-06T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-06T19:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-06T19:17:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-10T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 127, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5844, "title": "Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?", "created_at": "2020-12-03T18:58:05.511339Z", "open_time": "2020-12-10T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-11T07:33:57.627425Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-11T07:33:57.627425Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-06T19:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-06T19:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-06T19:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-06T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-06T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The electoral college will meet on 14 December 2020 and vote. They are widely expected to deliver a result showing Biden has won the election.\n\nHowever, individual states may have their Electoral College Certificate of Vote challenged when Congress meets in Joint Session to count the electoral votes cast for President and Vice President on 6 Jan 2021. This will be the newly elected Senate and House of Representatives, following the 2020 election.\n\nA \"formal objection\" must be made in writing and be signed by at least one Senator and one member of the House of Representatives, per the provisions of [3 U.S.C. §15](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/15).\n\nIn 1969, a challenge was made to attempt to overturn a vote of a faithless elector. In 2005, Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio and Senator Barbara Boxer of California objected to Ohio's electoral votes, [alleging \"widespread irregularities\"](https://www.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/01/06/electoral.vote.1718/). Neither of these challenges succeeded.\n\nAn objection was also attempted in 2016 by a member of the House, but no Senator signed on.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at least one formal objection to the 2020 electoral college vote is made in writing and signed by at least one Senator and one member of the House of Representatives, per credible media reporting. (Note that the objection does not need to succeed to count for positive resolution.)\n\nThis question resolves negatively if no such objection is made.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the certification is not held by 6 Jan 2021. If somehow an objection is made after 6 Jan 2021 but the certification has taken place, the objection will not count for the purposes of this question and the objection will not affect resolution.\n\nIf an objection is made, this question will close retroactively to 24 hours before the date of the objection", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5844, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609904340.345846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609904340.345846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9397857500025171 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.20720058302946776, 0.0, 0.0008770424832985939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011936080322674759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02424382739737664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.426244767026915e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000613430046850975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004360299347366143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005379363664291041, 0.0007877560919778222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006965105138581336, 0.0006530516499436415, 5.247287926814531e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8756756821041869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13590363995848145, 0.034877466691807586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002158340905255293, 0.21952592646705357, 0.0030512556195659, 0.0012472028256494225, 0.001711392035097955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008986883574378157, 0.7337924170203823, 0.35970288648016946, 0.0, 0.035616859575159386, 0.0, 0.14574814998741553, 0.00770178289475254, 0.0, 0.05813987343819371, 0.02949716927058605, 0.044603521064337986, 0.196758752243197, 0.3600494197705605, 3.025881124328885, 0.07795451351167267, 1.171661544397426, 3.1015483788806657, 10.176404525085603 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.876021311938704, "coverage": 0.9837773945339328, "baseline_score": 36.09236125986349, "spot_peer_score": -2.8986494820696254, "peer_archived_score": 14.876021311938704, "baseline_archived_score": 36.09236125986349, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.8986494820696254 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609904340.420067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609904340.420067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.009753034390255766, 0.9902469656097442 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 416, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The electoral college will meet on 14 December 2020 and vote. They are widely expected to deliver a result showing Biden has won the election.\n\nHowever, individual states may have their Electoral College Certificate of Vote challenged when Congress meets in Joint Session to count the electoral votes cast for President and Vice President on 6 Jan 2021. This will be the newly elected Senate and House of Representatives, following the 2020 election.\n\nA \"formal objection\" must be made in writing and be signed by at least one Senator and one member of the House of Representatives, per the provisions of [3 U.S.C. §15](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/15).\n\nIn 1969, a challenge was made to attempt to overturn a vote of a faithless elector. In 2005, Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio and Senator Barbara Boxer of California objected to Ohio's electoral votes, [alleging \"widespread irregularities\"](https://www.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/01/06/electoral.vote.1718/). Neither of these challenges succeeded.\n\nAn objection was also attempted in 2016 by a member of the House, but no Senator signed on." }, { "id": 5832, "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "short_title": "China Lands Next Person on Moon", "url_title": "China Lands Next Person on Moon", "slug": "china-lands-next-person-on-moon", "author_id": 106736, "author_username": "nagolinc", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-02T14:24:16.110583Z", "published_at": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T03:40:51.531187Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 135, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "topic": [ { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5832, "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "created_at": "2020-12-02T14:24:16.110583Z", "open_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-19T10:55:19.241555Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-19T10:55:19.241555Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\n\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.", "fine_print": "For a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.", "post_id": 5832, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763801920.570218, "end_time": 1764297667.240606, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763801920.570218, "end_time": 1764297667.240606, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.547402229962256 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0512344085413151, 0.011887882949387597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21504453622888114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020924831704504987, 0.12306634997500657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019144160966186434, 0.1442628151661407, 0.0, 0.01174710194940703, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.6863435335490868, 0.4778110469703529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08072675464844094, 0.07054314492133018, 0.009205059809709527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2072457012947375, 0.0, 0.289963167232079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02096852565824849, 0.016841314468324528, 0.7541905627496637, 0.0, 0.03450157101588733, 0.14402876366182918, 0.0, 1.5462380480040978, 0.23316795348493013, 0.7865073310932549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27742570457074694, 0.0, 0.1731168032924276, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6155002096397295, 0.45819723534666984, 0.9511099300684505, 0.1628953631576628, 0.0006398679769312256, 0.1533309821021587, 1.3383207037959655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3158579192132891, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09216020163694309, 0.4108338431275717, 0.8615285967605866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8170614041506024, 0.2619121957393845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7300542955016693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32896445200073904, 0.0, 0.48365593434901344, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5136967898905964, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25080454446328004 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288237.092878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288237.092878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7816278872186113, 0.21837211278138874 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 336, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024." }, { "id": 5826, "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?", "short_title": "Bitcoin below $10K?", "url_title": "Bitcoin below $10K?", "slug": "bitcoin-below-10k", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-01T19:25:39.659455Z", "published_at": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.880067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:15:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 350, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5826, "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?", "created_at": "2020-12-01T19:25:39.659455Z", "open_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-06T18:11:58.744567Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-06T18:11:58.744567Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-02T01:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on coinmarketcap.com drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\n\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.", "fine_print": "The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\n\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \n\nIf coinmarketcap.com ceases to reliably record prices, https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous.", "post_id": 5826, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1631638091.712568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 350, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1631638091.712568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 350, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.08278236084793923 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.087427317371855, 2.136941658996223, 4.492837780020153, 3.0293597321980914, 2.7277809968053917, 2.102923763590746, 4.295485300372498, 1.257945770201991, 0.5467163933914734, 2.499278592454559, 0.8644162996001375, 1.8914622423694938, 0.009792837924347052, 1.0436368427202982, 1.519618935204719, 0.14035483722182077, 0.004242099270766497, 0.13068637197004573, 1.1555781306949618e-06, 0.04724446045646133, 0.009907191037521974, 0.03843663753858192, 0.00018435960002533507, 0.0, 1.2617997028817292, 0.3722309860999825, 2.1209028209014687e-05, 0.1197394761805249, 0.0, 0.923880872277262, 7.119789956488941e-06, 0.01976404451821612, 0.015511697241342616, 0.008309018183189179, 0.0004145735573851036, 0.00038038852119910254, 0.0002931344742995026, 0.00013498755584007464, 0.0, 0.04281785424576766, 0.00010982483316037427, 0.0, 7.33299782160646e-07, 0.0, 0.145384384233329, 0.0, 1.354423695387071e-06, 0.0, 1.0571324728778728e-07, 0.010780454718237938, 0.0, 2.760356926470065e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 8.43186165217024e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012825467926771308, 0.08580455594332925, 0.0, 2.067693029835212e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009347764209526741, 1.1654505604877817e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 4.528305743718828e-06, 7.169170238109403e-05, 0.00011568539389975189, 0.0, 1.5225881802154418e-05, 0.0, 3.3470259093081364e-05, 5.863271126909339e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002088157483011577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0158656254850263e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022178708916301568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006422902573022583 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.40829413461795, "coverage": 0.9998678644260861, "baseline_score": 72.17399638535797, "spot_peer_score": -14.15255605570317, "peer_archived_score": 16.40829413461795, "baseline_archived_score": 72.17399638535797, "spot_peer_archived_score": -14.15255605570317 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1631638091.760245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 350, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1631638091.760245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 350, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9673706228448824, 0.03262937715511762 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 37, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1079, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?" }, { "id": 5825, "title": "Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?", "short_title": "Trump at Biden's inauguration?", "url_title": "Trump at Biden's inauguration?", "slug": "trump-at-bidens-inauguration", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-01T19:05:09.025731Z", "published_at": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.400155Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T16:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T16:30:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 255, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5825, "title": "Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?", "created_at": "2020-12-01T19:05:09.025731Z", "open_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-06T14:41:58.482670Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-06T14:41:58.482670Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T16:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T16:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-20T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-19T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-19T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The inauguration of the president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration) is a ceremony to mark the commencement of a new four-year term of the president of the United States. As the new President-elect, Joe Biden is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 Jan 2021.\n\n[After much speculation that she wouldn't](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/hillary-clinton-reveals-she-tried-skip-trumps-inauguration-1050727), [Hillary Clinton did attend Trump's inauguration](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-arrives-capitol-donald-trumps-inauguration/story?id=44920947), as is the tradition. Only three incumbent presidents have refused to attend the inauguration of the President-elect - John Adams, John Quincy Adams, and Andrew Johnson.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"yes\" if Trump attends a public event where Biden is sworn in as president, \"no\" if Trump does not attend.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguous if such an event does not occur by the end of 1 February 2021.", "fine_print": "For positive resolution, Trump must be (a) within 800 meters of Joe Biden (b) for at least 80% of the entire inauguration ceremony and (c) is not hosting an alternative event or giving a speech for any amount of time that is contemporaneous with the inauguration ceremony.\n\nThe time period of \"inauguration ceremony\" refers to Biden's swearing in, plus the thirty minutes prior and thirty minutes after, or just the thirty minutes prior if there are not at least thirty minutes after, or just the thirty minutes after if there are not at least thirty minutes prior.", "post_id": 5825, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611072502.112041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 255, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611072502.112041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 255, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.05495682060107384 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 12.419621607949585, 3.3354019685909617, 2.512872652521092, 2.005418168372157, 3.332907292309411, 0.003786116038653547, 0.5004098521679595, 1.3668723243903318, 0.0, 1.0666776042780457, 0.0, 5.284872289603432e-05, 0.7568862352231931, 0.0, 0.3687144201634911, 0.854421094496538, 0.08675669691707306, 0.4307238079431988, 0.0, 0.051306547087337936, 0.008059935836615467, 8.823826531205452e-05, 0.624212813711043, 0.00010242400596869241, 0.02233527752504908, 9.076512916642814e-06, 3.1562235325732567e-07, 2.7430454889338014e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001236957025382581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049428009286761, 0.0, 0.6010395203643976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.5832691917956665e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04069809116046931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.512413528646013, "coverage": 0.9997904751334364, "baseline_score": 85.42064084426961, "spot_peer_score": -3.7735645779622997, "peer_archived_score": 4.512413528646013, "baseline_archived_score": 85.42064084426961, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.7735645779622997 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611072502.170228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 255, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611072502.170228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 255, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9823206127476543, 0.01767938725234569 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 704, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The inauguration of the president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration) is a ceremony to mark the commencement of a new four-year term of the president of the United States. As the new President-elect, Joe Biden is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 Jan 2021.\n\n[After much speculation that she wouldn't](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/hillary-clinton-reveals-she-tried-skip-trumps-inauguration-1050727), [Hillary Clinton did attend Trump's inauguration](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-arrives-capitol-donald-trumps-inauguration/story?id=44920947), as is the tradition. Only three incumbent presidents have refused to attend the inauguration of the President-elect - John Adams, John Quincy Adams, and Andrew Johnson." }, { "id": 5824, "title": "Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?", "short_title": "UK to cut international aid?", "url_title": "UK to cut international aid?", "slug": "uk-to-cut-international-aid", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-01T17:03:34.545907Z", "published_at": "2020-12-04T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.677645Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-04T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-15T22:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-15T22:43:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-04T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5824, "title": "Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?", "created_at": "2020-12-01T17:03:34.545907Z", "open_time": "2020-12-04T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-06T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-06T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-15T22:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-15T22:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-15T22:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, recently announced that the government will [reduce the amount of spend on international development from 0.7% of GNI to 0.5%.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55064019). This means that the UK government will spend £10bn on aid instead of £14bn.\n\nThe proposal generated significant cross-party controversy, with one Foreign Office Minister [resigning](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/nov/25/uk-foreign-aid-budget-cut-chancellor-announces) in protest.\n\nIn order to pass the cut to aid, [an act of parliament is required](https://www.euractiv.com/section/development-policy/news/uk-aid-cuts-to-be-enshrined-in-law-ministers-concede/), while the large majority held by the Conservative Party makes a defeat unlikely, the discontent surrounding the bill makes it at least possible. There has been some discussion from Effective Altruists about exerting pressure in this direction, see [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/a5qSgWBLRsicYFRFm/gbp4bn-for-the-global-poor-the-uk-s-0-7) for more.\n\n***Will the UK government suceed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?***\n\nResolves positively if, before 2021/04/01, a bill is passed in parliament cutting the amount of international aid provided by the UK from its current level of 0.7% of GNI.\n\nThis question will close immediately before the parliamentary vote on any qualifying bill.\n\n[fine-print]\nIf the cut in aid is temporary, with a reversal to 0.7% or greater written in to law, it still counts as a cut for the purposes of resolution.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5824, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1612136961.77182, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], 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Fuse] VISA reduces charity fees", "url_title": "[Short Fuse] VISA reduces charity fees", "slug": "short-fuse-visa-reduces-charity-fees", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-12-01T11:56:04.299200Z", "published_at": "2020-12-01T12:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.075359Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-01T12:46:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-10T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-10T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T13:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T13:53:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-01T12:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, 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"category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5820, "title": "Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?", "created_at": "2020-12-01T11:56:04.299200Z", "open_time": "2020-12-01T12:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-01T13:39:30.872977Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-01T13:39:30.872977Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T13:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T13:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-15T13:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-10T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-10T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A few Effective Altruist organisations have launched a campaign asking VISA to waive card processing fees on donations to registered charities. More details about the campaign, including a link to a petition, can be found [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oofn93HmgrRT6whgP/opportunity-to-increase-ea-org-funding-by-usd200k-year-if-a).\n\nThis question asks:\n\n***[Short Fuse] Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed in getting VISA to significantly reduce fees for charitable donations?***\n\nThe campaign will be deemed to have \"succeeded\" if, by 15 December, VISA has publicly announced that there will be a reduction in fees of at least 50% for charitable donations. Note that the request is for fees to be completely eliminated, however a substantial reduction is still a \"win\" in a meaningful sense.\n\nA statement by an official VISA channel, including social media platforms, for example [@VISA](https://twitter.com/Visa), will be sufficient for resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5820, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1607592286.996924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1607592286.996924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.036571315869342834 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 9.591966278089448, 0.6785387059438066, 2.109771841590726, 0.4852026017407312, 0.5066315619952263, 0.0026929702225732283, 0.014357330374357432, 0.0, 0.0013141707011951615, 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"", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The term of the current Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will come to an end on 30 June 2021. Nominations are open for candidates to become the next Secretary-General, with nominations having closed on the 1st of November. The decision is expected by 1 March 2021 at the latest. \n\nMathias Cormann announced he was stepping down as Finance Minister of Australia in order to run for the position of Secretary-General. [Cormann faces nine competitors.](https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-announces-candidates-for-next-secretary-general.htm) In his favour is [the US and EU being apparently reluctant to support the other's candidate](https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-nominate-cormann-for-oecd-20201008-p5633s) but working against him is [the Australian Government's poor record on climate change](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/24/mathias-cormann-wants-to-be-a-chameleon-on-climate-change-when-weve-got-a-bin-fire-instead-of-a-plan).\n\nBipartisan support within Australia is likely needed for Cormann to have a chance. The Coalition torpedoed former Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's bid to become UN Secretary-General, but the Labor Party [has said they will support Cormann's bid](https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-nominate-cormann-for-oecd-20201008-p5633s).\n\n[Australia has provided Cormann with flights on an Air Force plane to help his bid.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-25/pm-defends-raaf-jet-for-cormann/12917878)\n\n***Will Mathias Cormann become the next Secretary-General of the OECD?***\n\nQuestion resolves positive on an official statement by the OECD that Mathias Cormann is appointed the next Secretary-General.\n\n[fine-print]\nIf the term of the current Secretary-General José Ángel Gurría Treviño is shortened or extended for any reason, this will resolve positive if Mathias Cormann is the next elected Secretary-General of the OECD. \n\nIf for some reason Gurría does not complete his term, selection of an acting Secretary-General will not result in this question resolving 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"2020-12-04T15:42:42.617248Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-04T15:42:42.617248Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-16T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-16T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-16T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate/)\n\n* [Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\n\n* [How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9079/democrats-in-house-of-representatives-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nIn 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\n\nIf Republicans win 218 seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house.\n\n435 seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Republicans^ win more than 50% of seats in the US House following the 2022 elections. If Democrats^ win more than 50% of seats, this question will resolve as **No**. If neither of these parties win more than 50% seats (e.g. an unaligned third party wins seats), then this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "fine_print": ".^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.", "post_id": 5814, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667911178.463808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 443, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667911178.463808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 443, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8510303876147163 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0026991476812249977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.223288456724869e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002067331916055485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035899536674768097, 0.0, 6.765043113308268e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8245889014776167e-07, 9.792658987221295e-07, 0.0, 3.47675334092893e-08, 0.0, 2.1403950742026134e-05, 0.0, 0.0002635370203976777, 7.873725449470094e-08, 8.374491838584884e-09, 4.4185847806843327e-07, 0.0009674670406199506, 0.01462590424336454, 0.0, 0.007505863540836609, 1.41121598653681e-06, 5.0316917079843354e-08, 0.0, 0.0003871651462063941, 1.605720839174234e-06, 3.140732101808234e-05, 0.0, 7.068803709815766e-08, 1.4362464712206495e-07, 5.747016143005722e-05, 0.03804895334332967, 2.526697517973253e-06, 9.133590667949935e-07, 0.0, 0.00012888869465363725, 0.010763184733900583, 0.2446126925604693, 0.0, 0.0, 2.073079228328519e-05, 0.04432385133317184, 1.540780203522792e-05, 0.017477145932647306, 0.025063860342890022, 0.0004209430703498656, 0.02147972405631849, 0.2259946667568041, 0.7003142283006621, 0.01088160139783024, 0.05767200200673446, 0.130669508869484, 1.330345375200157, 1.3062638483639393, 0.9371353033643575, 0.012274456348728561, 0.9016634960983131, 0.41677079937223593, 0.541250012413044, 0.6162651217781832, 0.4882268836353857, 1.8556006004708048, 0.24370992758602877, 1.8520333616948474, 1.404106260756317, 2.914558534868008, 6.836114586015251, 0.6946591841436234, 0.3780304606817882, 1.5065147786048416, 1.3100312257619984, 5.835945055519054, 0.259502450912206, 1.0819917610118928, 0.14359455393797882, 0.0009010981856300334, 1.7075239409223482, 0.0, 0.0677159136197408, 0.6561157365622311, 3.741383610288872 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.163070075304798, "coverage": 0.9997294643724979, "baseline_score": 41.17628389728843, "spot_peer_score": -32.22094095856375, "peer_archived_score": 15.163070075304798, "baseline_archived_score": 41.17628389728843, "spot_peer_archived_score": -32.22094095856375 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667911178.518282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 443, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667911178.518282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 443, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.16765525423861782, 0.8323447457613822 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 43, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1262, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate/)\n\n* [Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\n\n* [How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9079/democrats-in-house-of-representatives-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nIn 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\n\nIf Republicans win 218 seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house.\n\n435 seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership." }, { "id": 5808, "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?", "short_title": "Signatory to ban on nukes to break treaty", "url_title": "Signatory to ban on nukes to break treaty", "slug": "signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-28T23:43:43.545141Z", "published_at": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-30T00:28:31.446790Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5808, "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?", "created_at": "2020-11-28T23:43:43.545141Z", "open_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-03T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-03T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\n\n> The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\n\n> For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\n\n> A mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\n\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5808, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759192101.244271, "end_time": 1772698148.270248, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.485 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759192101.244271, "end_time": 1772698148.270248, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.485 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.515, 0.485 ], "means": [ 0.5262628065609557 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.7434470303607771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1662421437488658, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3799312372607398, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 1.7777415634069107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.2939889581200987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7502135707587743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287498.395612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287498.395612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7096293262544837, 0.2903706737455163 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\n\n> The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\n\n> For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\n\n> A mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\n\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons)." }, { "id": 5777, "title": "Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?", "short_title": "AstraZeneca vaccine 1.5 dose more effective?", "url_title": "AstraZeneca vaccine 1.5 dose more effective?", "slug": "astrazeneca-vaccine-15-dose-more-effective", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-23T18:40:53.384197Z", "published_at": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.374470Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-31T18:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-31T18:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-17T16:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-17T16:27:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5777, "title": "Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?", "created_at": "2020-11-23T18:40:53.384197Z", "open_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-26T02:20:11.260558Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-26T02:20:11.260558Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-17T16:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-17T16:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-17T16:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-31T18:40:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-31T18:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Per [Statnews](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/) \n\n>The preliminary results on the AstraZeneca vaccine were based on a total of 131 Covid-19 cases in a study involving 11,363 participants. The findings were perplexing. Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741.\n\n...\n\n>AstraZeneca plans to explore adding the half dose-full dose regimen to its ongoing clinical trials in discussions with regulatory agencies, a spokesman told STAT in an email.\n\nThe half dose was originally [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q)\n\n>Around the time when Astra was initiating its partnership with Oxford at the end of April, university researchers were administering doses to trial participants in Britain.\n\n>They soon noticed expected side effects such as fatigue, headaches or arm aches were milder than expected, he said.\n\n>“So we went back and checked ... and we found out that they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” said Pangalos.\n\nSince the half dose was not part of the originally registered trial, it's more complicated to figure out the significance of the difference here, and the future trials that will specifically test it will presumably be higher powered and able to settle the question more definitively.\n\n***Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and finds that the former is more effective with a p-value below .05. \n\nThis question resolves negatively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and fails to find a significant difference (i.e. p>.05.)\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such RCT is reported by May 1, 2021.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5777, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609434761.336536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 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"name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5768, "title": "Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?", "created_at": "2020-11-22T18:49:20.796593Z", "open_time": "2021-01-13T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-15T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \n\nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\n\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\n\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading)), and their prison sentence begins between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2026.\n\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\n\nAn executive will be eigible in this question if they are employed by a company that was listed in any of these major indicies at any time in 2021 or later, even if subsequently delisted:\n\n* S&P500\n* FTSE100\n* DAX40\n* CAC40\n* FTSE MIB\n* Nikkei 22", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5768, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763750241.573828, "end_time": 1763942596.375043, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763750241.573828, "end_time": 1763942596.375043, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.0603307784621445 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.2325289064674148, 5.321582086886058, 3.3609584714395746, 1.6319107216942497, 1.0402990176489004, 1.1444990725842508, 0.9479509993067093, 0.08606707977615563, 0.0, 0.09247365187383665, 0.09320827213849374, 0.09928470899229455, 0.1350623731895671, 0.10646666388362522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05336112142596156, 0.0, 0.03695445799964774, 0.028728097596559032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02016905167772199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05849363131837028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01522709157824471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009182867495108389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006491379412313928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010203749825154337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013817601810517008, 0.0003468500661995196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011312442712237657, 0.0004766249178816012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004018315335893655, 0.015626225236803147, 0.006395612706333985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5152857733211774, 0.0031033278471984875, 0.008022797220705508, 0.0007889847684794025, 0.0035558038154070376, 0.06155601966130546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002693995410734121, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012744167134136161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.075361647376487 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287998.455166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287998.455166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3837705167986817, 0.6162294832013183 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 698, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \n\nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\n\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\n\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)" } ] }
