Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5140
{ "count": 6403, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5160", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5120", "results": [ { "id": 5766, "title": "Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?", "short_title": "Yang to run for NYC mayor in 2021?", "url_title": "Yang to run for NYC mayor in 2021?", "slug": "yang-to-run-for-nyc-mayor-in-2021", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-22T13:00:30.110235Z", "published_at": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.675208Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-13T04:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-15T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-13T04:47:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5766, "title": "Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?", "created_at": "2020-11-22T13:00:30.110235Z", "open_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-26T15:46:18.950499Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-26T15:46:18.950499Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-13T04:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-13T04:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-13T04:47:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\n\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already [several strong declared and potential candidates](https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/major-2021-mayoral-contenders.html), including [Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/eric-adams-runs-for-new-york-city-mayor.html). Yang has confirmed that [he is actively considering](http://www.wcny.org/andrew-yang-for-nyc-mayor-tbd/)\n a bid.", "resolution_criteria": "Will Andrew Yang declare his intention to run for Mayor in the 2021 New York City municipal Democratic primary election?", "fine_print": "This question resolves positively if Andrew Yang states clearly that he will run for Mayor of New York before the Democratic primary filing deadline on April 26th. It resolves negatively if this date passes without such a statement, if Yang runs as in independent or under another party, or if Yang states clearly that he will not be running. Resolution should be supported by credible media reports.", "post_id": 5766, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1610810739.051305, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1610810739.051305, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9570127121602837 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.001524981872424075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001963403728513482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001297534598106844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004466182328135157, 0.0002698016324819901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014803563353606637, 0.0, 0.002606167907938849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016805473299330367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008752885410335807, 0.7752926901367718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004178769657568818, 0.07936674049253409, 0.012498957873914782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009587555935714907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2451535265415106, 0.0, 0.41521995564803527, 0.09865422003821253, 0.0, 0.009481888734741973, 0.0022953016071686487, 0.035016161865124865, 1.2931740663114775, 0.011417034368343237, 0.0057442095537421, 0.07339022141707155, 0.039098528828555634, 0.9152194152601298, 0.0, 1.1130102657086516, 0.3352136380229639, 12.922523960649151 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.908734464792422, "coverage": 0.439635104511958, "baseline_score": 25.11581624713162, "spot_peer_score": -0.8461953705886549, "peer_archived_score": 8.908734464792422, "baseline_archived_score": 25.11581624713162, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.8461953705886549 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1610477080.783066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1610477080.783066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.024270730895789572, 0.9757292691042104 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 341, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\n\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already [several strong declared and potential candidates](https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/major-2021-mayoral-contenders.html), including [Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/eric-adams-runs-for-new-york-city-mayor.html). Yang has confirmed that [he is actively considering](http://www.wcny.org/andrew-yang-for-nyc-mayor-tbd/)\n a bid." }, { "id": 5752, "title": "Will the Coup-o-meter enter \"Attempted Coup\" or \"Coup\" territory by February 1st 2021?", "short_title": "Coup-o-meter to enter \"Attempted Coup\" range", "url_title": "Coup-o-meter to enter \"Attempted Coup\" range", "slug": "coup-o-meter-to-enter-attempted-coup-range", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-19T20:51:13.551573Z", "published_at": "2020-11-21T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.722998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-21T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-06T21:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-06T21:28:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-21T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5752, "title": "Will the Coup-o-meter enter \"Attempted Coup\" or \"Coup\" territory by February 1st 2021?", "created_at": "2020-11-19T20:51:13.551573Z", "open_time": "2020-11-21T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-21T16:56:13.372041Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-21T16:56:13.372041Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-06T21:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-06T21:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-06T21:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A coup [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat),\n\n> the removal of an existing government from power, usually through violent means.\n\nhttps://isthisacoup.com/ monitors recent news events to place the current political situation in the United States on a scale from \"Democracy\" to \"Coup.\" As of the writing of this question, the Coup-o-meter is solidly within the \"Preparing for a coup\" territory. Will it enter \"Attempted Coup\" or \"Coup\" territory by February 1st, 2021?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at some point before February 1st 2021, the Coup-o-meter on https://isthisacoup.com/ reveals that we have entered \"Attempted Coup\" or \"Coup\" territory. Resolution will be determined either by credible media, or via an archive of https://isthisacoup.com/. See [this image](https://i.imgur.com/ZYrQjlv.png) to understand which notches on the Coup-o-meter I'm referring to.\n\nWhether the US is actually experiencing a coup is immaterial to the resolution of this question, except for the effect it has on the Coup-o-meter.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609479589.127961, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609479589.127961, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.1138518944107009 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0179538652497975, 0.012121262173950948, 0.1052785149043029, 1.041792601575484, 1.6613956517715955, 0.7313232205713538, 1.533836574196894, 0.010033693009389048, 2.737022729918561, 1.2803479305685181, 0.006050930535116419, 0.8156371760924567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6381234713460977, 0.16563661255949796, 0.6931971817520817, 0.8144998460401682, 0.042226411430796126, 2.1391868882642613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6328864846189307, 0.4258784562878934, 0.04551310199086637, 0.3025121902155152, 0.0, 0.13878408629710787, 0.0009400929107262819, 0.0, 0.003033740382392937, 0.0005198912028162097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024287348108945894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00041057211391749783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03101129919345409, 0.07019132559628703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003140657611517779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015104103982854685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -17.43960314317775, "coverage": 0.9994388954877829, "baseline_score": -208.58146146184416, "spot_peer_score": -23.43005283579791, "peer_archived_score": -17.43960314317775, "baseline_archived_score": -208.58146146184416, "spot_peer_archived_score": -23.43005283579791 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609479589.205351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609479589.205351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.964448212131186, 0.03555178786881393 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 333, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A coup [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat),\n\n> the removal of an existing government from power, usually through violent means.\n\nhttps://isthisacoup.com/ monitors recent news events to place the current political situation in the United States on a scale from \"Democracy\" to \"Coup.\" As of the writing of this question, the Coup-o-meter is solidly within the \"Preparing for a coup\" territory. Will it enter \"Attempted Coup\" or \"Coup\" territory by February 1st, 2021?" }, { "id": 5749, "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", "short_title": "COVID-19 strain that circumvents the immunity", "url_title": "COVID-19 strain that circumvents the immunity", "slug": "covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity", "author_id": 112655, "author_username": "Alexander230", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-19T17:00:25.048394Z", "published_at": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.471918Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 103, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-07T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-07T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 190, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5749, "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", "created_at": "2020-11-19T17:00:25.048394Z", "open_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-23T00:36:27.361187Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-23T00:36:27.361187Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-07T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-07T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\n\nThis question asks:\n\n** Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?**\n\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\n\n[fine-print]\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n\n**2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5749, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625086665.379156, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625086665.379156, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.5274508657886705 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6125629590029271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.634321391827662e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2059769621156871, 0.0, 0.0, 7.625224814091025e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13611942827144757, 0.0, 0.07075585240106462, 7.567702593900392e-05, 0.0, 3.7213575991174e-05, 0.0007269809911196391, 0.0, 0.0599314732446493, 0.003938933023558733, 0.2529976431022571, 0.14036640916492069, 0.0, 0.6356968641939272, 0.056406806434600804, 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"description": "" }, { "id": 5747, "title": "By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?", "short_title": "Will @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS be suspended?", "url_title": "Will @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS be suspended?", "slug": "will-realdonaldtrump-or-potus-be-suspended", "author_id": 113582, "author_username": "silly", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-18T19:39:37.672421Z", "published_at": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.618485Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-06T00:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-06T00:13:00Z", "open_time": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5747, "title": "By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?", "created_at": "2020-11-18T19:39:37.672421Z", "open_time": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-23T22:28:11.395528Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-23T22:28:11.395528Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-06T00:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-06T00:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-06T00:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since election day on November 3rd, 2020, a [large portion](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/technology/donald-trump-twitter.html) of [@realDonaldTrump](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump)'s tweets have been marked by Twitter with messages such as \"this claim about election fraud is disputed\" and \"multiple sources called this election differently.\"", "resolution_criteria": "For the purpose of this question, a Twitter account suspension is defined as at least one of:\n\n- An account is required to delete a Tweet before it's able to Tweet again\n- An account is unable to send Tweets\n- An account's Tweets cannot be viewed by on twitter.com by logged-out readers\n- An account's ability to send Tweet is rate-limited in a special manner\n\nThis question resolves positively if all of:\n\n- @realDonaldTrump and/or @POTUS is suspended (as defined above) \n- The suspension is based on alleged violation(s) of Twitter's Terms of Service\n- The suspension is intentional (not due to technical error)\n- The suspension is not due to a [rogue employee](https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/2/16600732/donald-trump-twitter-account-gone-realdonaldtrump)\n- The suspension is not due to [an account being hacked or at risk of being hacked](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/twitter-hack-verified-accounts-social-engineering-bitcoin-scam/)\n\nIn case of positive resolution, this question is retroactively closed 24 hours before the suspension begins.\n\nAn official statement from Twitter is not required to resolve positively. However, an official statement from Twitter can prevent this question from resolving positively if it clearly states that the context of an account suspension does not meet the resolution criteria.\n\nA previous question on the issue [may be found here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3257/by-november-2nd-2020-will-twitter-temporarily-or-permanently-suspend-realdonaldtrump-or-teamtrump-or-potus-based-on-alleged-violations-of-twitters-terms-of-service/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5747, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609978215.882024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609978215.882024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.7273974536757541 ], "histogram": [ [ 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since election day on November 3rd, 2020, a [large portion](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/technology/donald-trump-twitter.html) of [@realDonaldTrump](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump)'s tweets have been marked by Twitter with messages such as \"this claim about election fraud is disputed\" and \"multiple sources called this election differently.\"" }, { "id": 5746, "title": "Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?", "short_title": "UK second wave deadlier than first?", "url_title": "UK second wave deadlier than first?", "slug": "uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-18T14:13:51.299013Z", "published_at": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.912703Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 135, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5746, "title": "Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?", "created_at": "2020-11-18T14:13:51.299013Z", "open_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-22T02:02:14.829924Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-22T02:02:14.829924Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-13T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-13T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-12T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-12T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. Recently, the deathrate in the UK reached 200 cases/day, triggering the resolution of [this](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5282/uk-second-wave-in-2020/) question on whether there would be a second wave. A [second](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/) question, on whether deaths would reach 450/day, looks almost certain to resolve positively in the next few days.\n\nThe UK government has implemented a [month-long national lockdown](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november), in an attempt to prevent deaths getting any worse.\n\nDuring the first wave, daily deaths peaked at just over 900 deaths/day. This question asks:\n\n***Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day by the end of the second wave?***\n\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the **Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date** reported on the dashboard exceed 7000.\n\nThe second wave will be determined to have ended if the 7-day moving average of deaths falls below 100 deaths/day for 14 consecutive days.\n\n[fine-print]\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\n\nData updates meaning that more than 3000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\n\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. This is a departure from the time of retroactive closing in the previous two questions, as it became apparent that the best strategy was to predict >7 days into the future, even if the most likely outcome was resolution before then.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5746, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1610557226.733932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 282, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1610557226.733932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 282, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9375908533943128 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0010199800105430898, 0.0, 0.0, 6.433368475665018e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4577936450991549e-05, 5.898686918729484e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 4.834242476346769e-05, 0.0, 4.7650498784002115e-07, 0.0, 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"2020-11-21T11:28:32.290203Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-21T11:28:32.290203Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-07T18:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-07T18:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-07T18:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-05T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-05T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [The New York Times](http://archive.is/5NLwM),\n\n> As the dust settles from the presidential race, the eyes of the political world have already shifted to Georgia, where two runoff elections set for early January will almost certainly determine which party has control of the Senate.\n\n> The outcome of the contests, which will play out two weeks before President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s inauguration, will either swing the majority to Democrats, handing the new president broad power to carry out his policy agenda and push through nominations as he sees fit, or leave Republicans in charge, allowing them to influence his plans. [...]\n\n> Democrats would need to capture both of the seats in Georgia to secure a 50-50 tie in the Senate. Then, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris could cast tiebreaking votes to carry out the Democratic agenda. If they were to lose one, Republicans would maintain their majority, albeit by the slimmest of margins.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican on February 1st, 2020. You can find information on the Senate Majority Leader on [this page](https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Majority_Minority_Leaders.htm", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5734, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609831290.72011, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609831290.72011, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5990441657114435 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02879363631585469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035680027420919296, 0.0, 0.09404299729406178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02831260451938394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40950619493141904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09302932719191165, 0.03964647171408076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017343610961547226, 0.2742001696525385, 1.5140525013923476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7073541088066199, 1.6667785245971185, 1.4834649235779285, 3.878904032306795, 2.3619691522905804, 0.0, 1.0766522443667323, 3.2315074418353893, 0.1388705139455917, 0.21461025975274467, 0.9580670223198413, 0.02311796322637362, 1.2033037309148, 0.642311497395053, 0.26043059715856226, 0.0015328312626820611, 0.2785883480518553, 0.5540024656814603, 0.04633833827771282, 0.00043637151188306617, 0.09805132572610142, 0.022114643625008215, 1.2335246545832361, 0.3812852560187931, 0.005725477498040294, 0.0, 5.730370166746644e-05, 0.00032370396826846747, 0.000622367049417239, 0.6471879782738108, 0.196692496714665, 0.0, 0.14220415986606375, 0.0, 0.00013642981705124904, 0.01197415592400621, 0.0, 0.001722426722456613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025166783760162815, 0.0006823828051251603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029888395740773444 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.541844399785145, "coverage": 0.9984972041799743, "baseline_score": -75.1244635987527, "spot_peer_score": 7.333829496912775, "peer_archived_score": 23.541844399785145, "baseline_archived_score": -75.1244635987527, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.333829496912775 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609831290.879731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609831290.879731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.40357191470023, 0.59642808529977 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 34, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 449, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [The New York Times](http://archive.is/5NLwM),\n\n> As the dust settles from the presidential race, the eyes of the political world have already shifted to Georgia, where two runoff elections set for early January will almost certainly determine which party has control of the Senate.\n\n> The outcome of the contests, which will play out two weeks before President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s inauguration, will either swing the majority to Democrats, handing the new president broad power to carry out his policy agenda and push through nominations as he sees fit, or leave Republicans in charge, allowing them to influence his plans. [...]\n\n> Democrats would need to capture both of the seats in Georgia to secure a 50-50 tie in the Senate. Then, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris could cast tiebreaking votes to carry out the Democratic agenda. If they were to lose one, Republicans would maintain their majority, albeit by the slimmest of margins." }, { "id": 5730, "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "short_title": "Biden net approval ≥5% through 20 July 2021", "url_title": "Biden net approval ≥5% through 20 July 2021", "slug": "biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-16T12:17:29.674282Z", "published_at": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.186641Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-20T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-20T16:01:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 186, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5730, "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "created_at": "2020-11-16T12:17:29.674282Z", "open_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-23T23:38:56.538644Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-23T23:38:56.538644Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-20T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-20T16:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-20T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\n\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.", "resolution_criteria": "**Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?**", "fine_print": "The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period.", "post_id": 5730, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1621525758.57809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1621525758.57809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7763723146927041 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.309375495690889e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025875703066250842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007296329905624155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016018162802160834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014159773631235799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.777212189836438e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012061815084085516, 0.0, 0.00016708416082814736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002371828785693662, 0.0, 0.00861538280349775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6828605925172882e-05, 0.07958838923610072, 0.0010974582546471226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013627605661368782, 0.3367646802876569, 0.027295361488081645, 0.35170943371422864, 3.291582849460284e-05, 0.9642294331934491, 0.9861334999980595, 0.9795977347730186, 0.8166586875786717, 0.0, 0.7551227630705344, 1.0357711965751246, 1.1236627107058488, 0.01954948975372009, 0.26110061610618207, 2.190536534652077, 3.2765346109980067, 0.16100819543779984, 0.1643064280596637, 0.054839994826191285, 0.7291924845685176, 2.8850087691344433, 0.45719283575633685, 0.4850695092553481, 0.5651122795023806, 0.37756232535217893, 2.2984989480235654, 0.0336672093703927, 0.00019565411376347476, 0.0, 0.003342862631437656, 2.0682419978758744, 0.0, 0.062324466736298406, 0.03710137440131973, 0.0, 1.0919928506913354, 0.15744303172065283, 0.0, 0.05423784308773624, 0.8286247785031864 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.304839314860722, "coverage": 0.9993029889547008, "baseline_score": 37.98248424270579, "spot_peer_score": 17.308652592810418, "peer_archived_score": 9.304839314860722, "baseline_archived_score": 37.98248424270579, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.308652592810418 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1621525758.684865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1621525758.684865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2073371217539831, 0.7926628782460169 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 643, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\n\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be." }, { "id": 5721, "title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?", "short_title": "1kt+ nuke detonated on Earth in 2021?", "url_title": "1kt+ nuke detonated on Earth in 2021?", "slug": "1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-14T22:51:55.484550Z", "published_at": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.633831Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:33:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 187, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5721, "title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?", "created_at": "2020-11-14T22:51:55.484550Z", "open_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-19T03:05:11.751616Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-19T03:05:11.751616Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T17:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\n\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\n\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\n\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are *suspected* to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5721, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638315128.550945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638315128.550945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.0669136931456392 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8398918446664844, 1.3618015073563898, 4.010198811791968, 3.7682060962271438, 4.484312809428677, 3.126890158344164, 1.6468100210593666, 1.6815950026112845, 0.8829915827680955, 1.2433481066260215, 0.5522859080652872, 0.034118286494957496, 0.3007805373833632, 0.0, 0.38677654144052453, 0.0, 0.30980904222842126, 0.00704479343041952, 0.005254635928619698, 0.07964172039754118, 0.003025174639300688, 0.04542062023185523, 0.02015031011352595, 0.010645191864435499, 0.07509834580123448, 0.0, 0.49001810755732944, 0.2008161446557818, 0.0, 0.10525720857061827, 0.0, 0.019827255675635404, 0.023069512989208125, 0.0001544230188590699, 0.09457897906468175, 0.00035970306560069356, 0.0012568352448920443, 0.01821187112454284, 0.003222685057915258, 0.00011253811021466073, 2.7193932728159274e-05, 0.0026451399601305505, 0.005911884773147533, 0.0, 0.004405472106362988, 0.0, 8.998249670201156e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006424387921683177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011748778421693665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002046796158986658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.505527334334535e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024945458676773574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020786080511261623 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.264447278597912, "coverage": 0.9997825582049004, "baseline_score": 54.01173794117875, "spot_peer_score": 11.27664248126699, "peer_archived_score": 9.264447278597912, "baseline_archived_score": 54.01173794117875, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.27664248126699 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638315128.582621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638315128.582621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9738045130297185, 0.02619548697028153 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 506, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\n\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\n\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation." }, { "id": 5716, "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", "short_title": "Longbets: Oil consumed in US in 2035 vs 2015", "url_title": "Longbets: Oil consumed in US in 2035 vs 2015", "slug": "longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-13T19:09:23.731380Z", "published_at": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T10:13:04.974709Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5716, "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", "created_at": "2020-11-13T19:09:23.731380Z", "open_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-18T19:09:23.731000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-18T19:09:23.731000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\n\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n\n> 1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n\n> 2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n\n> 3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n\n> 4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\n\nStephen W Snow countered,\n\n> My reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\n\n**Will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?**\n\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5716, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763227320.370135, "end_time": 1766822329.642419, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763227320.370135, "end_time": 1766822329.642419, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3243037978541378 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288614.203335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288614.203335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, 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"actual_close_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-18T21:34:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-16T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 126, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5715, "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?", "created_at": "2020-11-13T18:43:49.683632Z", "open_time": 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"Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).\n\nJeff McAulay argued,\n\n> Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.\n\nStephen Zoepf countered,\n\n> I agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.", "resolution_criteria": "If Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question will resolve as **Yes**. 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However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely." }, { "id": 5687, "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?", "short_title": "Trump Indictment on Obstruction of Justice", "url_title": "Trump Indictment on Obstruction of Justice", "slug": "trump-indictment-on-obstruction-of-justice", "author_id": 114654, "author_username": "t_adamczewski", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-10T05:57:33.056931Z", "published_at": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.788663Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-09T12:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-09T12:35:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 169, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5687, "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?", "created_at": "2020-11-10T05:57:33.056931Z", "open_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-15T00:18:24.419969Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-15T00:18:24.419969Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-09T12:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-09T12:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-09T12:35:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\n\n> on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\n\n***Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?***", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. 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Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\n\n***Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?***" }, { "id": 5686, "title": "Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?", "short_title": "Trump attempts to pardon family member", "url_title": "Trump attempts to pardon family member", "slug": "trump-attempts-to-pardon-family-member", "author_id": 114654, "author_username": "t_adamczewski", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-10T05:37:48.051928Z", "published_at": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.165039Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-21T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-21T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-29T21:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-29T21:20:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 218, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5686, "title": "Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?", "created_at": "2020-11-10T05:37:48.051928Z", "open_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-15T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-29T21:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-29T21:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-29T21:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-21T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-21T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_pardons_in_the_United_States):\n\n> A federal pardon in the United States is the action of the President of the United States that completely sets aside the punishment for a federal crime. The authority to take such action is granted to the president by Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positive if, before 21 January 2021, Trump uses the pardon power (under Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the constitution) for potential crimes committed by one of the following people.\n\n* Melania Trump\n* Donald Trump Jr.\n* Ivanka Trump\n* Eric Trump\n* Tiffany Trump\n* Jared Kushner\n\nIt will resolve positive even if these people are not charged with any crimes (such as when President Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon, who had not been charged with anything, over any possible crimes connected with the Watergate scandal). 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The authority to take such action is granted to the president by Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution." }, { "id": 5685, "title": "Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?", "short_title": "Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?", "url_title": "Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?", "slug": "will-donald-trump-attempt-to-pardon-himself", "author_id": 114654, "author_username": "t_adamczewski", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-10T05:32:26.388614Z", "published_at": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.050985Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-21T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-21T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-26T12:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-26T12:02:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 279, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5685, "title": "Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?", "created_at": "2020-11-10T05:32:26.388614Z", "open_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-15T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-26T12:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-26T12:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-26T12:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-21T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-21T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_pardons_in_the_United_States):\n\n> A federal pardon in the United States is the action of the President of the United States that completely sets aside the punishment for a federal crime. The authority to take such action is granted to the president by Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution. \n\n[CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/07/opinions/what-trump-may-try-to-do-honig/index.html):\n\n> The biggest question: will Trump try to pardon himself? We don't know conclusively whether a presidential self-pardon is lawful -- primarily because nobody has ever tried it before. The Constitution places no explicit limitation on the pardon power and legal scholars differ on the issue. ...If Trump does pardon himself, federal courts could eventually give us a definitive answer.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positive if, before 21 January 2020, Trump attempts to use the pardon power (under Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the constitution) for potential crimes committed by himself. It will resolve positive even if Trump is not charged with any crimes (such as when President Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon, who had not been charged with anything, over any possible crimes connected with the Watergate scandal). It will resolve positive even if courts ultimately rule that the pardon is not legal", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5685, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611214758.225283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 279, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611214758.225283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 279, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.024049791067006752 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 26.07392139586621, 1.709665298887256, 0.3032887233224264, 0.45905456021787694, 1.182529344712877, 0.11134294460562978, 0.040253612593958925, 0.1417909487182711, 0.025710172148501687, 0.2900395472955972, 0.014702713281626692, 0.016676197501574716, 0.18845261390939647, 0.020301822601808253, 0.12695934130468695, 0.0063957638159508265, 0.00014638283442918959, 0.005220225805254734, 0.010736612762406112, 0.020277779886642734, 4.359249867785079e-05, 0.9417875524436594, 0.005680417793165964, 0.001905546224314645, 0.04054022305151403, 0.00203536835285087, 0.010975770247333237, 0.007041366912026789, 0.0, 0.05502165915878575, 0.0, 0.0005284473762931575, 0.07564756096764187, 0.0, 0.0018900928493465596, 0.0, 0.0007302185306291409, 0.0, 7.472255951123631e-06, 0.001730532637858316, 0.0017011587544881832, 0.0, 0.00023956331251932575, 1.0058015634479813e-05, 0.0020499888536265475, 0.0017531996725923867, 0.00042596917790000864, 0.0, 0.007523676281288887, 0.0002134258613143534, 0.00046799636918357996, 0.0001373410358480516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021892119189771006, 2.870913795900685e-05, 0.0004770410794457943, 0.0, 0.0, 1.535478808604578e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020811718256732672, 0.0, 6.10820150089167e-05, 2.3487302341836743e-06, 0.0, 0.0004610705553031871, 0.0, 1.1187561294995595e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 6.380425651987313e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.5623430073996435e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4584828320750004e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.652257588454112, "coverage": 0.9991612547364502, "baseline_score": 47.29559496441999, "spot_peer_score": -2.0653506278333165, "peer_archived_score": 6.652257588454112, "baseline_archived_score": 47.29559496441999, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.0653506278333165 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611214758.277401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 279, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611214758.277401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 279, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9691120463351446, 0.03088795366485536 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1026, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_pardons_in_the_United_States):\n\n> A federal pardon in the United States is the action of the President of the United States that completely sets aside the punishment for a federal crime. The authority to take such action is granted to the president by Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution. \n\n[CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/07/opinions/what-trump-may-try-to-do-honig/index.html):\n\n> The biggest question: will Trump try to pardon himself? We don't know conclusively whether a presidential self-pardon is lawful -- primarily because nobody has ever tried it before. The Constitution places no explicit limitation on the pardon power and legal scholars differ on the issue. ...If Trump does pardon himself, federal courts could eventually give us a definitive answer." }, { "id": 5684, "title": "Will any states flip from the current projected winner?", "short_title": "States flipping in 2020 election", "url_title": "States flipping in 2020 election", "slug": "states-flipping-in-2020-election", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-09T23:44:36.131392Z", "published_at": "2020-11-10T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.024156Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-10T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 119, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-21T23:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-21T23:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-21T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-21T16:08:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-10T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 202, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5684, "title": "Will any states flip from the current projected winner?", "created_at": "2020-11-09T23:44:36.131392Z", "open_time": "2020-11-10T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-10T11:49:32.889947Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-10T11:49:32.889947Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-21T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-21T16:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-21T16:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-21T23:44:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-21T23:44:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of Nov 9th, the state markets on predictit are still pricing in significant uncertainty. The following states have at least 5% implied odds of flipping from the current winner:\n\nNevada (90% to Biden)\n\nArizona (84% to Biden)\n\nWisconsin (88% to Biden)\n\nMichigan (90% to Biden)\n\nGeorgia (83% to Biden)\n\nNorth Carolina (95% to Trump)\n\nPennsylvania (87% to Biden)\n\nAlaska (95% to Trump).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if any of the markets above resolve in favor of the current \"underdog\" candidate, or if the market for any other state currently called by the networks for one candidate ultimately resolves for a different candidate.\n\nThis question resolves negatively if all of the state markets at predictit resolve in the direction of the current leader.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any state market at predictit resolves ambiguously, or if any state conducts a second election in order to determine presidential electors for 2020", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5684, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606001504.039585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1606001504.039585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.08229951103346009 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.131556599160048, 5.071050731762622, 2.1501158647706253, 1.0494902293530015, 2.617173143062889, 0.9671808889027369, 0.11406113752143189, 0.0017666635176781594, 0.012101844306540488, 0.1587687540813717, 0.017001471509732025, 0.0, 0.02412318369487507, 0.7800241799969073, 0.20204798863927836, 0.007556921728630297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3090458617648423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000322569989543124, 0.43449004614675923, 0.01718396085826076, 0.20273704622272407, 0.0, 0.03350647493586744, 0.0, 0.055080369067781035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.572082519858896e-05, 0.004870902765685764, 0.0, 0.40311406882135037, 0.08498077036540351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3502031483901746e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1785878920063794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000594812914383841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.899659651996265 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.146966640384319, "coverage": 0.9998901989697875, "baseline_score": 93.30003664771154, "spot_peer_score": 9.177516775298908, "peer_archived_score": 11.146966640384319, "baseline_archived_score": 93.30003664771154, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.177516775298908 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606001504.083009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1606001504.083009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9939151628400564, 0.0060848371599436036 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 503, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of Nov 9th, the state markets on predictit are still pricing in significant uncertainty. The following states have at least 5% implied odds of flipping from the current winner:\n\nNevada (90% to Biden)\n\nArizona (84% to Biden)\n\nWisconsin (88% to Biden)\n\nMichigan (90% to Biden)\n\nGeorgia (83% to Biden)\n\nNorth Carolina (95% to Trump)\n\nPennsylvania (87% to Biden)\n\nAlaska (95% to Trump)." }, { "id": 5683, "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production before 2031?", "short_title": "SA Triangle Produces Most Lithium by 2031", "url_title": "SA Triangle Produces Most Lithium by 2031", "slug": "sa-triangle-produces-most-lithium-by-2031", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-09T22:49:06.290769Z", "published_at": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T05:02:21.988586Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5683, "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production before 2031?", "created_at": "2020-11-09T22:49:06.290769Z", "open_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-11T22:49:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-11T22:49:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\n\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \n\nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \n\nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\n\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\n> \"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\n\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\n\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\n> \"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\n\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \n\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5683, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763445232.241297, "end_time": 1769422329.493791, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763445232.241297, "end_time": 1769422329.493791, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.5059403174196264 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289366.877606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289366.877606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5744824969636304, 0.42551750303636965 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\n\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \n\nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \n\nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\n\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\n> \"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\n\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\n\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\n> \"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\n\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle." }, { "id": 5678, "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", "short_title": "Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel to retract views on death", "url_title": "Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel to retract views on death", "slug": "dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-views-on-death", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-09T21:13:57.683719Z", "published_at": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-26T18:36:28.389676Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5678, "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", "created_at": "2020-11-09T21:13:57.683719Z", "open_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-18T01:38:07.597537Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-18T01:38:07.597537Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\n\n>At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\n\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \n\nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\n\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5678, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762962580.795895, "end_time": 1764150589.609083, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762962580.795895, "end_time": 1764150589.609083, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5113852254228965 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 0.5584580948134545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.9003755945993588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9170923785291796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 1.0420724505982597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7118165837590469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5322233034377565 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288999.828854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288999.828854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6349527998441264, 0.3650472001558736 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 144, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\n\n>At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\n\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay)." }, { "id": 5656, "title": "Will Trump freely leave the White House?", "short_title": "Will Trump freely leave the White House?", "url_title": "Will Trump freely leave the White House?", "slug": "will-trump-freely-leave-the-white-house", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-08T19:51:59.141274Z", "published_at": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.515719Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-15T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-15T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:02:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 222, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5656, "title": "Will Trump freely leave the White House?", "created_at": "2020-11-08T19:51:59.141274Z", "open_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-11T15:05:18.642486Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-11T15:05:18.642486Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-20T19:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-15T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of November 8th, 2020 Donald Trump has still not conceded the election, despite multiple news networks (including his favorite, Fox News) projecting his opponent Joe Biden to be the next president of the United States. While his court cases are pending, ProPublica has [noted](https://www.propublica.org/article/if-trump-tries-to-sue-his-way-to-election-victory-heres-what-happens),\n\n> It’s not likely the recount requests or ballot challenges, which are common in the wake of close elections, will make a difference in the outcome. “Recounts rarely change the vote totals very much,” said University of Kentucky law professor Joshua Douglas, and the same is true of challenges to the validity of ballots.\n\nSome have considered the possibility that a disgraced Trump will be dragged out of the White House on inaguration day. Scott Aaronson [writes](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5088),\n\n> Now that Trump has gone this far in shattering all the norms of succession, part of me wants to see him go the rest of the way … to being physically dragged out of the Oval Office by Secret Service agents on January 20, in pathetic and humiliating footage that would define how future generations remembered him.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at least 3 credible media sources all independently report evidence that Trump left the White House willingly, and free from force or the threat of force on or before inauguration day 2021, with no evidence of intention to return (except as a potential guest, or if he wins the presidency again in some future election). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. \n\nA threat of force is constituted by an order by a legitimate authority, such as a Secret Service agent or a judge. In other words, at least one person who has legal authority to forcefully order Trump to leave the White House must order/force him to leave for this question to resolve negatively. A pre-emptive reminder of his official scheduled departure at 12 PM January 20th 2021 does *not* count as an order.\n\nIn the case of a dispute between credible sources, or the absence of clear evidence, this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5656, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1610723631.240785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1610723631.240785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.9246439067938295 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.05526233953736758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3063231269592234e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2268975781830094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00039818389411064276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06494988118776394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3652327577031767, 0.20280107021165053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02535720761157018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.080433829388133e-05, 0.0019510055202339547, 0.0, 0.0032324560754030157, 0.0, 0.08467221997113125, 0.10401799682102104, 1.3885285489939618, 0.027710166075967685, 0.008106673540877987, 0.0023882616911547103, 0.0018403144940858204, 0.0, 0.6880970572477714, 0.0034131489486148576, 1.0648057254447365, 0.25350922126607706, 0.000277009018858235, 1.7050623379325995, 0.0, 1.6619071689647609, 0.0020574844175930713, 0.12050117072782368, 0.6422116215080329, 0.7372207417678048, 4.427483611429345, 2.227343730349202, 2.2850494782968136, 0.8339601699138357, 9.085835507600756 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.091100652922961, "coverage": 0.9993905275499134, "baseline_score": 86.99563866405411, "spot_peer_score": 25.99344323403593, "peer_archived_score": 9.091100652922961, "baseline_archived_score": 86.99563866405411, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.99344323403593 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1610723631.311276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1610723631.311276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.04742880526406279, 0.9525711947359372 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 574, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of November 8th, 2020 Donald Trump has still not conceded the election, despite multiple news networks (including his favorite, Fox News) projecting his opponent Joe Biden to be the next president of the United States. While his court cases are pending, ProPublica has [noted](https://www.propublica.org/article/if-trump-tries-to-sue-his-way-to-election-victory-heres-what-happens),\n\n> It’s not likely the recount requests or ballot challenges, which are common in the wake of close elections, will make a difference in the outcome. “Recounts rarely change the vote totals very much,” said University of Kentucky law professor Joshua Douglas, and the same is true of challenges to the validity of ballots.\n\nSome have considered the possibility that a disgraced Trump will be dragged out of the White House on inaguration day. Scott Aaronson [writes](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5088),\n\n> Now that Trump has gone this far in shattering all the norms of succession, part of me wants to see him go the rest of the way … to being physically dragged out of the Oval Office by Secret Service agents on January 20, in pathetic and humiliating footage that would define how future generations remembered him." }, { "id": 5655, "title": "Will Trump flee the United States?", "short_title": "Trump flees the United States", "url_title": "Trump flees the United States", "slug": "trump-flees-the-united-states", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-08T19:25:22.685821Z", "published_at": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.682818Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 109, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5655, "title": "Will Trump flee the United States?", "created_at": "2020-11-08T19:25:22.685821Z", "open_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-12T00:53:35.819506Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-12T00:53:35.819506Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Anthony [wrote](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-jail-or-prison/#comment-45259),\n\n> I'm updating to a significant probability [of Trump serving time in jail or prison] because (a) he's now leaving office; (b) it seems very plausible that he's broken a lot of laws that can be prosecuted at the state and not just federal level; (c) precedent: Metaculus has historically been surprised by people in the Trump administration going to prison.\n\nnotany replied,\n\n> @Anthony I think there is high probability that he flees the country. Saudi Arabia or Russia as likely destinations. He could still run TV-shows and stay active in the U.S. and play golf.\n\nPablo Stafforini replied,\n\n> @notany A question on whether Trump will leave the country would be interesting.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if credible media reports that Donald Trump has physically resided outside of the United States for at least 365 consecutive days after leaving the nation before 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5655, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611161741.484099, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611161741.484099, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.25557063987306966 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2744872534911647, 0.00027349190580289477, 0.28918963257589736, 0.0, 0.9613110798630413, 0.09864101756083635, 0.6421958113065834, 0.372056503545982, 0.18857574478560538, 1.3743095233683738, 0.100906203097293, 0.06018068453810821, 0.042068518530578074, 0.0, 1.260909555530624, 0.5950478167881457, 0.2503434833323807, 1.1724795800658936, 0.8241887226527879, 1.6483091210173995, 0.3496247967207285, 0.017834450597129802, 0.0, 0.953132201543355, 1.1299062318262227, 0.0, 0.4061980238802976, 0.9925593578279348, 0.0, 0.46545018610459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5540183451060169, 0.0, 0.4747595592880645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38589453946846425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23685514934120233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2118001597438285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662709847513449, 0.2645108706225655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03475438569249108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7472055653525078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1611161741.594135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1611161741.594135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9000695266289359, 0.09993047337106407 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 28, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Anthony [wrote](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-jail-or-prison/#comment-45259),\n\n> I'm updating to a significant probability [of Trump serving time in jail or prison] because (a) he's now leaving office; (b) it seems very plausible that he's broken a lot of laws that can be prosecuted at the state and not just federal level; (c) precedent: Metaculus has historically been surprised by people in the Trump administration going to prison.\n\nnotany replied,\n\n> @Anthony I think there is high probability that he flees the country. Saudi Arabia or Russia as likely destinations. He could still run TV-shows and stay active in the U.S. and play golf.\n\nPablo Stafforini replied,\n\n> @notany A question on whether Trump will leave the country would be interesting." }, { "id": 5635, "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", "short_title": "Bitchute blocked by FB before 2023?", "url_title": "Bitchute blocked by FB before 2023?", "slug": "bitchute-blocked-by-fb-before-2023", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-05T14:20:20.176638Z", "published_at": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.129401Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5635, "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", "created_at": "2020-11-05T14:20:20.176638Z", "open_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-14T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-14T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\n\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)) Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \n> a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\n\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.", "resolution_criteria": "- If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added bitchute.com to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively.\n- If bitchute.com is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5635, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643655444.774007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643655444.774007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.34696842089494123 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23434107129204243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429368094000161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1769212063177643, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.9300205187794963, 1.3579746437689875, 0.0, 0.5468132678220224, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0829724022345248, 0.23671866618441226, 0.0, 0.6028566406880749, 0.8642672445783581, 0.13513216692815616, 0.0, 0.18328311847523301, 0.0, 0.4550896554812558, 0.7635453740782194, 0.053493066571363594, 1.3874400174947885, 1.7445660976288506, 0.23092145128937078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009167091186681414, 0.0, 0.3952632697996375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25921142457002483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004029996917539339, 0.0, 0.16054456415221713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.0, 0.03605708309460087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02700918083308739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.622119719746179, "coverage": 0.9999770207190097, "baseline_score": 35.50661959542343, "spot_peer_score": 22.281818932319112, "peer_archived_score": 15.622119719746179, "baseline_archived_score": 35.50661959542343, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.281818932319112 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643655444.83013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643655444.83013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.777754860366221, 0.222245139633779 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\n\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)) Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \n> a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\n\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too." }, { "id": 5632, "title": "Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?", "short_title": "GOP Controls US Senate in 2023", "url_title": "GOP Controls US Senate in 2023", "slug": "gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023", "author_id": 114654, "author_username": "t_adamczewski", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-04T18:05:31.292451Z", "published_at": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.502249Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 220, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 613, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5632, "title": "Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?", "created_at": "2020-11-04T18:05:31.292451Z", "open_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-15T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate/)\n\n* [Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)\n\n* [How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9080/democrats-in-senate-after-2022/)\n\n----\n\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\n\n> The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... 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All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans." } ] }
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