Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5160
{ "count": 6405, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5180", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5140", "results": [ { "id": 5635, "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", "short_title": "Bitchute blocked by FB before 2023?", "url_title": "Bitchute blocked by FB before 2023?", "slug": "bitchute-blocked-by-fb-before-2023", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-05T14:20:20.176638Z", "published_at": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.129401Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5635, "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", "created_at": "2020-11-05T14:20:20.176638Z", "open_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-14T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-14T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\n\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)) Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \n> a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\n\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.", "resolution_criteria": "- If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added bitchute.com to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively.\n- If bitchute.com is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5635, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643655444.774007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643655444.774007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.34696842089494123 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23434107129204243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429368094000161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1769212063177643, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.9300205187794963, 1.3579746437689875, 0.0, 0.5468132678220224, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0829724022345248, 0.23671866618441226, 0.0, 0.6028566406880749, 0.8642672445783581, 0.13513216692815616, 0.0, 0.18328311847523301, 0.0, 0.4550896554812558, 0.7635453740782194, 0.053493066571363594, 1.3874400174947885, 1.7445660976288506, 0.23092145128937078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009167091186681414, 0.0, 0.3952632697996375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25921142457002483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004029996917539339, 0.0, 0.16054456415221713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.0, 0.03605708309460087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02700918083308739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.622119719746179, "coverage": 0.9999770207190097, "baseline_score": 35.50661959542343, "spot_peer_score": 22.281818932319112, "peer_archived_score": 15.622119719746179, "baseline_archived_score": 35.50661959542343, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.281818932319112 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643655444.83013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643655444.83013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.777754860366221, 0.222245139633779 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\n\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)) Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \n> a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\n\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too." }, { "id": 5632, "title": "Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?", "short_title": "GOP Controls US Senate in 2023", "url_title": "GOP Controls US Senate in 2023", "slug": "gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023", "author_id": 114654, "author_username": "t_adamczewski", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-04T18:05:31.292451Z", "published_at": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.502249Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 220, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 613, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5632, "title": "Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?", "created_at": "2020-11-04T18:05:31.292451Z", "open_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-15T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate/)\n\n* [Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)\n\n* [How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9080/democrats-in-senate-after-2022/)\n\n----\n\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\n\n> The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on February 1, 2023, the US Senate Majority Leader is a Republican", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5632, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667893976.99178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 612, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667893976.99178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 612, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6156286421933618 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.409149594071602e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030303562301945484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1476059091568242, 0.0028209784402218096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026912173662403532, 0.055116613884659146, 0.007527438163208717, 0.0010027573397467667, 0.0, 0.01426422935938558, 0.0012175953663965079, 0.0, 0.007736247325852994, 0.0, 0.020106892463733393, 0.016409716063080393, 0.01977082954322247, 0.11514073723442181, 2.419622578738692e-09, 0.010212595967062078, 0.014596572973707526, 0.03812877747075054, 0.0066767117585079215, 0.006110867177773139, 0.18287948470032134, 0.07573836400722025, 0.005459133979745735, 0.005870982883869214, 0.10021247233500981, 0.359551459248702, 0.022233024654153867, 0.0122496224726819, 0.7471543915231722, 0.0801145092894179, 1.9199542016371631, 0.3572117447538899, 1.4447979122303654, 1.5765882200618802, 2.257312604062483, 3.6335462947183226, 4.348416764250182, 2.5933029274665143, 0.3072185870169547, 1.7425211836681473, 7.776832173389684, 0.4146650111614043, 2.963641073509658, 0.23612924055323412, 0.035576228119656675, 2.411941274181335, 0.2649675243634111, 1.01387560240442, 0.26879573806234436, 0.7081698210066136, 1.3377517258925413, 0.5357551749535644, 0.0274747455603477, 1.1113112732058936, 1.0175484943998825, 2.2166034025111543, 0.8858288951479671, 0.02953098663508939, 0.0004188800005316477, 0.00029593047059542956, 0.003203934462644292, 0.0005026495033567512, 7.005448223677824e-05, 0.0002206921048859084, 0.0770931699778382, 0.05227404125942787, 5.515042143354678e-05, 0.7371205429194909, 2.980564686084438e-05, 4.078400226581842e-06, 0.019112639873090167, 0.1576169637746721, 9.336360843562956e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006644493903492121, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3870551000690186 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.419023007811991, "coverage": 0.9998357401016793, "baseline_score": -35.5830856734857, "spot_peer_score": 12.201645832922928, "peer_archived_score": 6.419023007811991, "baseline_archived_score": -35.5830856734857, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.201645832922928 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667893977.234927, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 612, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667893977.234927, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 612, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.536622330996493, 0.463377669003507 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 71, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1947, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate/)\n\n* [Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)\n\n* [How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9080/democrats-in-senate-after-2022/)\n\n----\n\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\n\n> The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans." }, { "id": 5598, "title": "Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?", "short_title": "Masks in schools U-Turn?", "url_title": "Masks in schools U-Turn?", "slug": "masks-in-schools-u-turn", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-03T22:27:39.440558Z", "published_at": "2020-11-05T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.188198Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-05T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-19T12:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-19T12:04:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-05T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5598, "title": "Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?", "created_at": "2020-11-03T22:27:39.440558Z", "open_time": "2020-11-05T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-07T14:45:09.488656Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-07T14:45:09.488656Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-19T12:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-19T12:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-19T12:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-07T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. Recently, the deathrate in the UK reached 200 cases/day, triggering the resolution of [this](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5282/uk-second-wave-in-2020/) question on whether there would be a second wave. A [second](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/) question, on whether deaths would reach 450/day, looks very likely to resolve positive by mid November.\n\nThe UK government has recently moved to implement a [month-long national lockdown](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november), in an attempt to prevent deaths getting any worse. That is, except for schools and universities, which remain full open, and are [strongly advised](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/actions-for-schools-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak/guidance-for-full-opening-schools) to avoid the wearing of masks in classroms for both teachers and students.\n\nThe guidance contains the following paragraph:\n>Based on current evidence and the measures that schools are already putting in place, such as the system of controls and consistent bubbles, face coverings will not be necessary in the classroom even where social distancing is not possible. Face coverings could have a negative impact on teaching and their use in the classroom should be avoided.\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution will be according to official government documentation, such as the link provided in the first paragraph.\n\n- Words to the effect of \"face coverings are recommended\", or a requirement that pupils and staff must wear face coverings, are required for positive resolution. A change in policy such that it is up to the discretion of schools is not sufficient.\n\n- The recommendation must be for the use of masks **in classrooms**. A recommendation that children wear masks in corridors then take them off in lessons is not sufficient.\n\n- If the advice varies between the different countries within the UK, whichever guidance applies to the majority of the population will be used for resolution. In practice, this means that the question will resolve positively iff face coverings are recommended for English schools.\n\n- If face coverings are recommended for staff but not for students, or vice-versa, this question resolves negative.\n\n- If face coverings are required/recommended for students above a certain age, but not below, this question resolves positively on the condition that the cut-off is 10 years old or younger (if under 11s are exempt from mask wearing, this still resolves positive).\n\n- If face coverings are recommended for secondary school pupils, but not primary school, this still resolves positive.", "fine_print": "If schools close early before the Christmas Holiday, and no recommendation has yet been made, this question resolves negative.", "post_id": 5598, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1607298940.213659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1607298940.213659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.07380993150450808 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6739254700995533, 0.0, 2.0344417030499917, 0.4686935552816156, 1.1339737778651062, 3.745024058762043, 0.0, 1.6120290441177074, 0.1533679428866179, 0.8119463128178429, 0.18527705034115113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6334629767657196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017059162801949267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04637161225326318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02801145134197794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011970422053018563, 0.009837259930117102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058722188548443695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002308706629581291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004800587348436423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.264440548895582, "coverage": 0.994701070247614, "baseline_score": 43.03208249688296, "spot_peer_score": 24.020151174600176, "peer_archived_score": 21.264440548895582, "baseline_archived_score": 43.03208249688296, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.020151174600176 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1607298940.236296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1607298940.236296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9783636162417241, 0.021636383758275975 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 159, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. Recently, the deathrate in the UK reached 200 cases/day, triggering the resolution of [this](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5282/uk-second-wave-in-2020/) question on whether there would be a second wave. A [second](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/) question, on whether deaths would reach 450/day, looks very likely to resolve positive by mid November.\n\nThe UK government has recently moved to implement a [month-long national lockdown](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november), in an attempt to prevent deaths getting any worse. That is, except for schools and universities, which remain full open, and are [strongly advised](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/actions-for-schools-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak/guidance-for-full-opening-schools) to avoid the wearing of masks in classroms for both teachers and students.\n\nThe guidance contains the following paragraph:\n>Based on current evidence and the measures that schools are already putting in place, such as the system of controls and consistent bubbles, face coverings will not be necessary in the classroom even where social distancing is not possible. Face coverings could have a negative impact on teaching and their use in the classroom should be avoided.\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5597, "title": "Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?", "short_title": "UK School Closure.", "url_title": "UK School Closure.", "slug": "uk-school-closure", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-03T22:20:37.726969Z", "published_at": "2020-11-05T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.937987Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-05T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-19T10:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-19T10:06:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-05T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5597, "title": "Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?", "created_at": "2020-11-03T22:20:37.726969Z", "open_time": "2020-11-05T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-07T14:42:00.078602Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-07T14:42:00.078602Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-19T10:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-19T10:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-19T10:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. Recently, the deathrate in the UK reached 200 cases/day, triggering the resolution of [this](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5282/uk-second-wave-in-2020/) question on whether there would be a second wave. A [second](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/) question, on whether deaths would reach 450/day, looks very likely to resolve positive by mid November.\n\nThe UK government has recently moved to implement a [month-long national lockdown](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november), in an attempt to prevent deaths getting any worse. That is, except for schools and universities, which remain full open, and are [strongly advised](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/actions-for-schools-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak/guidance-for-full-opening-schools) to avoid the wearing of masks in classroms for both teachers and students.\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution will based on an official statement from the UK Government stating that all schools are to cease in-person teaching. If there is a different policy between seperate nations in the UK, then a statement which applies only to England **will** be sufficient for resolution.\n\nThe closure of schools to all children above a certain age (for example, the closure of all secondary schools and sixth forms) will **not** be sufficient for resolution.", "fine_print": "If, as was the case in the previous lockdown, schools continue in-person teaching for small numbers of vulnerable children and the children of essential workers, this question will resolve positive.", "post_id": 5597, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606768109.753294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1606768109.753294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.19443002180695693 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.03605708309460087, 0.0, 0.16566814095446364, 0.0, 1.2400310077525507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6902063238793004, 0.0, 1.075429749588984, 0.3634464003638125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0779979540890596, 1.1066943077305669, 0.0, 0.16054456415221713, 0.64848186473475, 0.843249579919062, 0.4652248038731492, 0.053493066571363594, 0.1769212063177643, 0.0, 0.2566833336914576, 0.0, 0.07372065813734696, 1.1016079490975166, 0.0, 1.6636803171220542, 0.011348003115516677, 0.0, 0.5915086375725582, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.004029996917539339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.4655443660199298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016576386347562713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.13328660802411, "coverage": 0.9930946775184891, "baseline_score": 44.31459335410582, "spot_peer_score": 20.997702587530153, "peer_archived_score": 9.13328660802411, "baseline_archived_score": 44.31459335410582, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.997702587530153 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606768110.12087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1606768110.12087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9428824363152359, 0.05711756368476404 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 144, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. Recently, the deathrate in the UK reached 200 cases/day, triggering the resolution of [this](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5282/uk-second-wave-in-2020/) question on whether there would be a second wave. A [second](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/) question, on whether deaths would reach 450/day, looks very likely to resolve positive by mid November.\n\nThe UK government has recently moved to implement a [month-long national lockdown](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november), in an attempt to prevent deaths getting any worse. That is, except for schools and universities, which remain full open, and are [strongly advised](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/actions-for-schools-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak/guidance-for-full-opening-schools) to avoid the wearing of masks in classroms for both teachers and students.\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5587, "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?", "short_title": "AI NY Times Best Seller before 2030", "url_title": "AI NY Times Best Seller before 2030", "slug": "ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-02T23:45:07.638356Z", "published_at": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T07:21:35.438552Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 271, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T11:57:02.614553Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T11:57:02.614553Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5587, "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?", "created_at": "2020-11-02T23:45:07.638356Z", "open_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-07T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-07T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\n\n> A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\n\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\n\n> widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.", "resolution_criteria": "A book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\n\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5587, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763796084.824954, "end_time": 1765806109.42623, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763796084.824954, "end_time": 1765806109.42623, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41000000000000003, 0.59 ], "means": [ 0.5539937114438952 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.30896461006678105, 0.0657479044694431, 0.0009103159972867607, 0.154482653461584, 6.372439341923907e-05, 0.13256087718043635, 0.0, 0.33438200512636057, 0.00013844059151015047, 0.1280207436845889, 0.4259956571359727, 0.0002702172239556383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013091146740141198, 0.02385572824365502, 0.0025082652121085217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007269809911196391, 0.5664074282376458, 0.00032247462546513775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001531567345510321, 0.828225437418219, 0.0, 0.37623847858816617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037979298771478834, 2.8051634434144218e-06, 0.5459914174270083, 1.1393262718080215, 0.006194262837915334, 0.880199841997651, 0.0, 4.351558686493691e-05, 0.40986382060331134, 0.0, 0.2722747984744816, 0.931340503895929, 0.05386532867154969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7025614594945295, 0.0, 0.24299075655406616, 0.0, 0.5739045436419926, 3.0366576519250095, 0.0042924590734143096, 0.29693451220654093, 0.0, 0.0022363661066982904, 0.14099578388600856, 0.2333488473551307, 4.962253930981245e-05, 0.0, 0.4744286971406691, 1.5835456848180092, 0.0, 0.6425024249594783, 0.6924464440518725, 0.0, 0.18385559070973448, 0.4434611334238966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6550157581314652, 2.35533454615004, 0.23160072376439864, 0.0, 0.09233846354946577, 0.0, 1.2341521629311594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3344119471352198, 0.9643300502192323, 0.10076910593984263, 0.001397673512873198, 0.07075585240106462, 0.05977437653630287, 0.0, 0.14812383011935953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37081116674849013, 0.0, 0.006306017990100249, 0.0053000182937838316, 0.0, 0.14200554314775302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8965022995470294, 0.5196139617999622 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289250.967192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289250.967192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5525012148730024, 0.4474987851269976 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 45, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 685, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\n\n> A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\n\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\n\n> widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic." }, { "id": 5577, "title": "Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?", "short_title": "Germany to Overtake US in EV Registrations", "url_title": "Germany to Overtake US in EV Registrations", "slug": "germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-01T20:29:34.659699Z", "published_at": "2020-11-01T20:29:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.763534Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-01T20:29:34Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-22T20:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-22T20:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-22T21:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-22T21:38:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-01T20:29:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5577, "title": "Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?", "created_at": "2020-11-01T20:29:34.659699Z", "open_time": "2020-11-01T20:29:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-03T20:29:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-03T20:29:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-22T21:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-22T21:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-22T21:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-22T20:28:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-22T20:28:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve [climate neutrality](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en) and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. \n\nAs reported through [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/about-us/history.html), a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately [500% between 2015 and 2019](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590).\n\nThe United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019.\n\nThe United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national carbon neutrality within a certain time period. [Fewer than half of its states have any sort of emission target](https://www.c2es.org/document/greenhouse-gas-emissions-targets/), with only four states with both statutory and executive targets. \n\nVolkswagen Group, a German automotive company, is predicted to overtake Tesla in EV market share by [2023 or earlier](https://evcentral.com.au/volkswagen-vows-to-overtake-tesla-on-tech-and-production-by-2023/#:~:text=Volkswagen%20vows%20to%20overtake%20Tesla%20on%20tech%20and%20production%20by%202023&text=Volkswagen%20says%20it%20will%20have,into%20the%20electric%2Dvehicle%20space.). If this happens, it might greatly increase the number of registrations within the company’s home nation, past that of the United States. \n\nA question regarding Volkswagen sales in 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5529/volkswagen-ev-sales-2020/).", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution criteria will come from the ZSW through their [data](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) on German and US new EV registrations. If data is no longer provided through this company, then new estimates will be obtained from a similar, reliable data source with numbers of EV registrations for both Germany and the US. If this is not possible, the question will resolve ambiguously. This question will resolve positively if the number of new EV registrations in Germany is greater than the number of registrations in the US", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1642868508.789193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1642868508.789193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6960501757990697 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07223042033187795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8858376904237463, 0.18204762382587608, 1.2392212799774929, 1.1387296791238675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44794337280328667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31009290935313266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 1.9003576980789285 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.47143177302134, "coverage": 0.9992754701884295, "baseline_score": 16.45950240348711, "spot_peer_score": 48.11603011778187, "peer_archived_score": 12.47143177302134, "baseline_archived_score": 16.45950240348711, "spot_peer_archived_score": 48.11603011778187 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1642868508.808657, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1642868508.808657, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2366836866676364, 0.7633163133323636 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve [climate neutrality](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en) and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. \n\nAs reported through [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/about-us/history.html), a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately [500% between 2015 and 2019](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590).\n\nThe United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019.\n\nThe United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national carbon neutrality within a certain time period. [Fewer than half of its states have any sort of emission target](https://www.c2es.org/document/greenhouse-gas-emissions-targets/), with only four states with both statutory and executive targets. \n\nVolkswagen Group, a German automotive company, is predicted to overtake Tesla in EV market share by [2023 or earlier](https://evcentral.com.au/volkswagen-vows-to-overtake-tesla-on-tech-and-production-by-2023/#:~:text=Volkswagen%20vows%20to%20overtake%20Tesla%20on%20tech%20and%20production%20by%202023&text=Volkswagen%20says%20it%20will%20have,into%20the%20electric%2Dvehicle%20space.). If this happens, it might greatly increase the number of registrations within the company’s home nation, past that of the United States. \n\nA question regarding Volkswagen sales in 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5529/volkswagen-ev-sales-2020/)." }, { "id": 5574, "title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?", "short_title": "China to reach NEV 14% Credit in 2021", "url_title": "China to reach NEV 14% Credit in 2021", "slug": "china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-11-01T20:17:49.193290Z", "published_at": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.711032Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-25T17:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-25T17:17:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5574, "title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?", "created_at": "2020-11-01T20:17:49.193290Z", "open_time": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-03T20:17:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-03T20:17:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-25T17:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-25T17:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-02-25T17:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n\n> “which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\n\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \n\nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\n\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n> “Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\n\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \n\nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \n\nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5574, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625040798.875859, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625040798.875859, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7482419510191797 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.4965703736796322, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2965539016933676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 3.7935957132827256, 0.6308407491715394, 0.967042202505489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26496281908746716, 0.9504966566291104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11067513359989949 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.4478028925242725, "coverage": 0.9970331718453873, "baseline_score": 58.28843603974443, "spot_peer_score": 0.5934735519814381, "peer_archived_score": 0.4478028925242725, "baseline_archived_score": 58.28843603974443, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.5934735519814381 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625040798.904744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625040798.904744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22846186530551105, 0.771538134694489 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n\n> “which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\n\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \n\nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\n\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n> “Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\n\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \n\nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \n\nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060)." }, { "id": 5555, "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", "short_title": "Rescheduled 2020 Olympics", "url_title": "Rescheduled 2020 Olympics", "slug": "rescheduled-2020-olympics", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-30T16:31:21.244958Z", "published_at": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:11.962244Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 161, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-21T19:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-21T19:59:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 548, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5555, "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", "created_at": "2020-10-30T16:31:21.244958Z", "open_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-04T16:24:56.746408Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-04T16:24:56.746408Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-21T19:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-21T19:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-21T19:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.", "fine_print": "An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. 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Will they go ahead?" }, { "id": 5554, "title": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?", "short_title": "5th Ave Apple Store Closure This Winter?", "url_title": "5th Ave Apple Store Closure This Winter?", "slug": "5th-ave-apple-store-closure-this-winter", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-30T08:21:31.613112Z", "published_at": "2020-11-02T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.066237Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-02T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-02-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-28T11:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-28T11:58:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-02T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5554, "title": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?", "created_at": "2020-10-30T08:21:31.613112Z", "open_time": "2020-11-02T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-04T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-04T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-28T11:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-28T11:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-03-28T11:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-15T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC):\n\n> Hearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick.\n\nLet's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses.\n\nThe \"always open\" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. 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But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season?" }, { "id": 5552, "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", "short_title": "Will 2021 be a happier year than 2020?", "url_title": "Will 2021 be a happier year than 2020?", "slug": "will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-29T13:54:47.915161Z", "published_at": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.428875Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:02:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5552, "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", "created_at": "2020-10-29T13:54:47.915161Z", "open_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-02T18:48:41.533952Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-02T18:48:41.533952Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T21:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\n\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\n\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\n\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5552, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635451742.989608, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635451742.989608, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.8206106368837118 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0024324321125848165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0048945516317679474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00524797978376936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17857585823801975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03441906327421838, 0.010243343466511347, 0.008533746853385664, 0.009356668418570713, 0.11661334446446864, 0.5041134787140122, 0.5189155864480279, 0.0, 0.1587467391145379, 0.7407932086390123, 0.00022111209728182583, 0.0, 0.005805836553457768, 0.9057282670029041, 0.0886002884262531, 0.7024008567253974, 0.07164154177786423, 1.21981965491065, 0.41674820287565373, 0.13414907443344487, 3.343472172790962, 0.17097456335746392, 0.2009120920098494, 0.46391216444280087, 0.012224307168577479, 1.7238920985921333, 0.11378119018910052, 1.6934166801463246, 1.066835721321928, 0.13111168793156824, 0.4760092682223148, 0.9526005046745318, 0.0024156522646221978, 0.017143622596427165, 0.0, 0.7803492419062619, 1.497042660799092, 0.0904530024890516, 0.0, 0.22738983402330734 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 26.92677019547071, "coverage": 0.9999115416405416, "baseline_score": 60.06839450370456, "spot_peer_score": 43.2174467376642, "peer_archived_score": 26.92677019547071, "baseline_archived_score": 60.06839450370456, "spot_peer_archived_score": 43.2174467376642 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635451743.014306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635451743.014306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1243658921677867, 0.8756341078322133 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 232, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\n\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\n\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing)." }, { "id": 5542, "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", "short_title": "Japan Host Games Advantage", "url_title": "Japan Host Games Advantage", "slug": "japan-host-games-advantage", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-28T14:25:31.264375Z", "published_at": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.430130Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-08T07:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-08T07:09:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 111, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5542, "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", "created_at": "2020-10-28T14:25:31.264375Z", "open_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-05T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-05T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-08T07:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-08T07:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-08T07:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\n\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n\n2000: 15th\n2004: 5th\n2008: 8th\n2012: 11th\n2016: 6th\n\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\n\n***Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\n\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n\n1. Number of Gold Medals\n2. (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals\n3. 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112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-28T14:17:26.853499Z", "published_at": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.640589Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-08T08:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-08T08:40:00Z", "open_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5541, "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", "created_at": "2020-10-28T14:17:26.853499Z", "open_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-05T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-05T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-08-08T08:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-08-08T08:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-08-08T08:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, 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It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\n\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\n\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n\n1. Number of Gold Medals\n2. (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals\n3. (Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals\n\nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5541, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1626897807.699648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1626897807.699648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.17000000000000004, 0.83 ], "means": [ 0.8262279617676976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.005493616612509603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0081981432990675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02962136754402973, 0.0, 0.009903815491925944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08072675464844094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025661101180229933, 0.03450157101588733, 0.03198265751660178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019144160966186434, 0.10875512340225346, 0.0006398679769312256, 0.23316795348493013, 0.3479390041501357, 0.4655263769228609, 0.0, 0.015466976053567325, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2717380212702851, 0.0005258417441048667, 0.773571375225097, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1534032732383928, 1.049745515128068, 2.0732064332018227, 1.7496105287135404, 0.9043805331713355, 0.714615588948952, 0.41615217460247955, 0.8840310205380537, 2.201300192087973, 0.007439285375673236, 1.303474785840068, 0.8336588366429248, 0.1628953631576628, 0.5451449056265206, 0.0, 0.06588199375352612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01687444542394062 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.364634646959269, "coverage": 0.9983919045816733, "baseline_score": 62.74257130007744, "spot_peer_score": 5.304177413918793, "peer_archived_score": 9.364634646959269, "baseline_archived_score": 62.74257130007744, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.304177413918793 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1626897807.828069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1626897807.828069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.13413687900443227, 0.8658631209955677 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. 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Will they repeat that in 2021?" }, { "id": 5540, "title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?", "short_title": "SCOTUS Impeachment and Removal by 2030", "url_title": "SCOTUS Impeachment and Removal by 2030", "slug": "scotus-impeachment-and-removal-by-2030", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-28T00:25:06.992274Z", "published_at": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T18:53:44.978748Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 127, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T00:29:42.029359Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T00:29:42.029359Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5540, "title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?", "created_at": "2020-10-28T00:25:06.992274Z", "open_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-30T23:04:22.913822Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-30T23:04:22.913822Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\n\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any US Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before January 1, 2030.", "fine_print": "An impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will *not* resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death.", "post_id": 5540, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763890175.980212, "end_time": 1764392700.068124, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763890175.980212, "end_time": 1764392700.068124, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.04751263427980204 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.078502033354707, 4.157658158022735, 1.9250966044495361, 0.5364293481996737, 1.9513198701284384, 3.7415774988835286, 0.32726263734203165, 1.0033867325067425, 0.4546001119709759, 0.0, 0.4251167768457688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04463644984976473, 0.4037262498182852, 0.06124471021719028, 0.0, 0.6073475340014041, 0.19846865400833952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010872227688318024, 0.10363261863669657, 0.018646144688694157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018853939356329463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010222105112996144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289525.94283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289525.94283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9936375667722087, 0.006362433227791243 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 327, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\n\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional." }, { "id": 5538, "title": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?", "short_title": "California Zero-Emission Sales by 2035", "url_title": "California Zero-Emission Sales by 2035", "slug": "california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035", "author_id": 115254, "author_username": "MetaculusOutlooks", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-27T20:18:32.420167Z", "published_at": "2020-10-27T20:18:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T20:50:16.736021Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-27T20:18:32Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T21:11:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T21:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": 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null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5538, "title": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?", "created_at": "2020-10-27T20:18:32.420167Z", "open_time": "2020-10-27T20:18:32Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-29T20:18:32Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-29T20:18:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T21:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T21:11:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T21:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \n\nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n> “including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\n\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n\n> “The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \n\nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \n\nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \n\nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5538, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763694444.567539, "end_time": 1764387166.384193, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763694444.567539, "end_time": 1764387166.384193, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5700000000000001, 0.43 ], "means": [ 0.41098030289602816 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9019935026160223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7985099853511659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35843923208154005, 0.5827013185393793, 0.0, 0.6525656508175627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7096876454325096, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8117493037268142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.314326790937948, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.2743287127404717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287640.911759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287640.911759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6297916971553634, 0.37020830284463657 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 166, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \n\nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n> “including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\n\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n\n> “The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \n\nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \n\nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two." }, { "id": 5512, "title": "[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?", "short_title": "AbstractSpyTreeBot wins the Darwin Game", "url_title": "AbstractSpyTreeBot wins the Darwin Game", "slug": "abstractspytreebot-wins-the-darwin-game", "author_id": 101911, "author_username": "tetraspace", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-24T14:46:26.939485Z", "published_at": "2020-10-27T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.833554Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-27T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-04T12:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-04T12:47:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-27T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5512, "title": "[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?", "created_at": "2020-10-24T14:46:26.939485Z", "open_time": "2020-10-27T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-29T13:24:30.258204Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-29T13:24:30.258204Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-04T12:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-04T12:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-04T12:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [Darwin Game](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AHTRyQJtiRin22kth/the-darwin-game-1) is a game hosted on Lesswrong. In the Darwin Game, pairs of bots are matched up and play a [Bargaining problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bargaining_problem) in which each name a number of points to get under the constraint that neither gets points if the number adds to more than 5. This is iterated for 100 turns so bots can incorporate the past behavior of their opponent in their decisions. The pool of bots has a number of copies of each bot proportional to how well they performed on previous rounds.\n\nThe user-submitted bots in the tournament have been categorized into 4 groups:\n\n* Norm Enforcers: Ben Pace and jacobjacob's bots which mutually cooperate.\n\n* [Clone Army](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/wKPWFvdMyvgDWfusX/p/AHTRyQJtiRin22kth?commentId=Kh9KYXuaLPQrCSRK8): A clique of 8 bots which cooperate with each other and will behave identically up until round 90.\n\n* Multics: [EarlyBirdMimicBot](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AHTRyQJtiRin22kth/the-darwin-game-1?commentId=PeHa27vgerZYpgery), which uses an exploit to fake being a clone to the Clone Army but behaves differently against other bots, and two password bots which aid it.\n\n* Chaos Army: Miscellaneous group of all other user-submitted bots.\n\nOne of these other user-submitted bots is [AbstractSpyTreeBot](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/wKPWFvdMyvgDWfusX/p/AHTRyQJtiRin22kth?commentId=PvhNbXPLJb4e6Yg9E), which simulates its opponent to predict what number it will name and returns the highest number that would still give it points.\n\nIn a [previous run of the tournament](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/wKPWFvdMyvgDWfusX/p/Tq8qeRxQ4pB3b5RKg), AbstractSpyTreeBot was performing as well as the clone bots as of round 10 despite the clones not recognizing it as a clone, though this was run with a [bug in the engine running the tournament](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/wKPWFvdMyvgDWfusX/p/YsdCAQaHGcjmeBGyy).\n\n***Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if, in the last round of the Darwin Game posted by [lsusr](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/lsusr), AbstractSpyTreeBot has the greatest population in the pool of bots.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5512, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604180782.585729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 5511, "title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?", "short_title": "AMC bankruptcy filing before April 2021?", "url_title": "AMC bankruptcy filing before April 2021?", "slug": "amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-24T02:56:51.656043Z", "published_at": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.427249Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-31T22:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-31T22:26:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5511, "title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?", "created_at": "2020-10-24T02:56:51.656043Z", "open_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-31T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-31T22:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-31T22:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-03-31T22:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States.\n\nAs of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, [AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/media/amc-reopening-ticket-prices/index.html)\n\nIn October 2020, the company [announced that \"existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021.\"](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/13/21514822/amc-theaters-cash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal) This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection.\n\nOn October 13 2020, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/amc-theaters-said-to-mull-bankruptcy-after-moviegoers-stay-home) that AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. As of October 23 2020, [AMC's stock is down more than 60% year-to-date.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFoYAXucyOJCdwVmRgGg_ZpQJatNSX43ixsB0TH5_QQFL1g-qDzbWTm5a7eQbNrjP_D4-tkDIGR0H6huvlBVn7TBpMTUDcXbmZHJoemmX1lj1Cgob9aBu6BfY9kCZrGzF3o9POw6vdqTHH1o9tWk9mr3kEZYkxcfCVKqhmr7lQ8H)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any time before 1 April 2021, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. or any parent company thereof submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code. No court ruling need be made for a positive resolution; only a filing.", "fine_print": "If AMC is acquired before this question resolves, the resolution will depend on whether the parent company files for bankruptcy before April 2021. If AMC is broken up into multiple companies before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously.", "post_id": 5511, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1612133669.91894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1612133669.91894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.09697608495485836 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.876179325855575, 0.32775878971780936, 0.5649742858299215, 1.9907152891214626, 1.5912892500742457, 0.7265607694367764, 2.4221165387897763, 0.4442089561386507, 0.0, 3.125763743357915, 0.08205310876924848, 1.3624451416650032, 0.0, 0.002539280627490721, 0.05715929497874699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00412801400445961, 0.0, 0.2303060382843437, 0.0, 0.9503748144584436, 0.019589177792223862, 0.0, 0.03720101334957416, 0.20136289509319918, 0.0, 0.0001435456002026656, 0.0, 0.3418928498903288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2712121138083403, 0.5625702260976513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014557515078758613, 0.001247541902620542, 0.0036304986994996494, 0.0, 0.0004940915054150324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000390197396586153, 0.0008934406256051884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007442701451381057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006116391588802215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.0543373492121715, "coverage": 0.9998831211425062, "baseline_score": -18.314676967369294, "spot_peer_score": 12.048361686341533, "peer_archived_score": 3.0543373492121715, "baseline_archived_score": -18.314676967369294, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.048361686341533 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1612133669.959775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1612133669.959775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9728941025629194, 0.027105897437080608 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 315, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States.\n\nAs of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, [AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/media/amc-reopening-ticket-prices/index.html)\n\nIn October 2020, the company [announced that \"existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021.\"](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/13/21514822/amc-theaters-cash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal) This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection.\n\nOn October 13 2020, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/amc-theaters-said-to-mull-bankruptcy-after-moviegoers-stay-home) that AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. As of October 23 2020, [AMC's stock is down more than 60% year-to-date.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFoYAXucyOJCdwVmRgGg_ZpQJatNSX43ixsB0TH5_QQFL1g-qDzbWTm5a7eQbNrjP_D4-tkDIGR0H6huvlBVn7TBpMTUDcXbmZHJoemmX1lj1Cgob9aBu6BfY9kCZrGzF3o9POw6vdqTHH1o9tWk9mr3kEZYkxcfCVKqhmr7lQ8H)" }, { "id": 5509, "title": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?", "short_title": "Detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere", "url_title": "Detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere", "slug": "detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere", "author_id": 103304, "author_username": "isinlor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-23T13:34:21.339349Z", "published_at": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.836959Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5509, "title": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?", "created_at": "2020-10-23T13:34:21.339349Z", "open_time": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-31T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\n\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\n\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\n\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\n\nRelated question:\n\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5509, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622494063.994974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622494063.994974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16306797433825462 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.23073330294957972, 0.0, 0.09467292063321112, 0.688235994887934, 0.0, 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-1.2651953747305251, "peer_archived_score": 4.03050407823778, "baseline_archived_score": 77.68454135979427, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.2651953747305251 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622494064.027696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622494064.027696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9228302960433944, 0.0771697039566056 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 163, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\n\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\n\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/)." }, { "id": 5505, "title": "Will a major network call the election prematurely?", "short_title": "Major network to call election prematurely", "url_title": "Major network to call election prematurely", "slug": "major-network-to-call-election-prematurely", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-22T00:04:11.082175Z", "published_at": "2020-10-24T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.749939Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-24T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T17:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T17:42:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-24T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5505, "title": "Will a major network call the election prematurely?", "created_at": "2020-10-22T00:04:11.082175Z", "open_time": "2020-10-24T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-25T18:17:36.027523Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-25T18:17:36.027523Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T17:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T17:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-15T17:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2000, major news networks, such as NBC, [called the election early for Al Gore](https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20001108/aponline183922_000.htm). In the end, George Bush [actually received the required votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election) in the electoral college, and became president.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if any of the following major news networks call the 2020 presidential election for a candidate who does not eventually win the election (as defined by whoever wins at least 270 votes in the electoral college, or a majority in the House of Representatives in case no candidate receives a majority in the electoral college).\n\n* Fox News\n* Associated Press\n* NBC\n* ABC\n* CBS\n* PBS\n* MSNBC\n* CN", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5505, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604388642.228807, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604388642.228807, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.20488082488396764 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.323638795908595, 0.0, 0.2619475431614609, 0.0, 0.7139691551189885, 0.39864581690945533, 0.050742537551279006, 0.0, 0.9377395971546344, 0.8365030440196779, 1.6301606780713973, 1.0825853190788144, 0.958856234688076, 1.3707058388477962, 0.6202083171888381, 0.008145825627362421, 0.0, 0.24453926184148345, 0.0, 1.4024921466762383, 0.0, 0.07323387050617254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2705096249279625, 0.0, 0.16162321107187128, 0.0, 0.16361328140823625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028223255188921492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006861545636634085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05440657924985089, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0785746495417061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492799034882604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41863228404520114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002996681779674101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4775044192925832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.2540529844653, "coverage": 0.9663567230337605, "baseline_score": 74.02953371748946, "spot_peer_score": 7.950401241769048, "peer_archived_score": 9.2540529844653, "baseline_archived_score": 74.02953371748946, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.950401241769048 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604388642.256895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604388642.256895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9234436992502528, 0.07655630074974717 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2000, major news networks, such as NBC, [called the election early for Al Gore](https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20001108/aponline183922_000.htm). In the end, George Bush [actually received the required votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election) in the electoral college, and became president." }, { "id": 5503, "title": "Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?", "short_title": "Comparing 538 and Economist forecasts in 2020", "url_title": "Comparing 538 and Economist forecasts in 2020", "slug": "comparing-538-and-economist-forecasts-in-2020", "author_id": 112076, "author_username": "SimonM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-21T21:00:08.189301Z", "published_at": "2020-10-24T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.244417Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-24T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-02T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-02T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-15T10:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-15T10:53:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-24T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 115, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5503, "title": "Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?", "created_at": "2020-10-21T21:00:08.189301Z", "open_time": "2020-10-24T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-25T00:45:57.310487Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-25T00:45:57.310487Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-15T10:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-15T10:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-15T10:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-02T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There are many groups forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election using (primarily) polls based models. [FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/) run by Nate Silver and [The Economist](https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president) run by G Elliott Morris. \n\nBoth FiveThirtyEight and The Economist have published probabilities for each state in the 2020 Presidential Election.\n\nWhich forecasts will prove to be more accurate?", "resolution_criteria": "To compare, we will score each set of predictions using a Brier score averaged over all N=51 races, computed as\n\n\\[ S = \\frac{1}{N}\\sum_{i=1}^{N}\\sum_{j=1}^{M}(p_{ij}−o_{ij})^2 \\]\n\nwhere \\( j \\) enumerates the \\(M_i\\) possible outcomes (i.e. possible winners) in the \\(i\\)th race out of N, where \\(p_{ij}\\) is the forecast probability of candidate \\(j\\) winning the \\(i\\)th race, and \\(o_{ij}\\) is assigned 1 if candidate \\(j\\) wins the \\(i\\)th race, and 0 otherwise.\n\nFor example, if The Economist assigned 52% to Trump and 48% to Biden in Texas and if Trump won then The Economist would achieve a Brier Score of\n\\[ S=(0.52−1)^2+(0.48−0)^2=0.4608 \\]\n\nA lower Brier score is better, with perfect predictions corresponding to S=0.\n\nThis question resolves positively if the Brier score for the 51 races is lower for 538's probabilities than for The Economist's probabilities. We will download each model's \"model outputs\" from their respective websites at 1400 UTC 02-Nov-2020\n\nTo obtain the 538 probabilities we will download the CSV from [here](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_state_toplines_2020.csv) and take the winstate_inc for Republicans and winstate_chal for Democrats in each state. (Ignoring congressional district specific probabilities)\n\nTo obtain The Economist's probabilities we will download the model outputs zip [here](https://cdn.economistdatateam.com/us-2020-forecast/data/president/economist_model_output.zip), and use the values from the state_averages_and_predictions_topline.csv fil", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5503, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604312139.302733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604312139.302733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5423006742559581 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04336916366212731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018032107460590262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5469829904091307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008101800757223834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3596519488939731, 0.0, 0.010468429223174789, 0.008020071583224717, 0.2833954930125111, 0.4225938415238525, 0.2610681550947861, 0.7715754295872483, 0.07051471726998289, 0.07601179674912584, 0.6888649036588446, 0.0019272342406730534, 0.0, 1.2902617101244955, 0.4615690328822901, 0.5368805835948417, 0.0, 0.019997188266545965, 0.0, 0.004373014579243026, 3.896277486023094, 0.02089697861447277, 0.8149719226662595, 0.0052654971115142805, 0.06562455790599403, 2.3202990719430336, 0.03914468908841351, 0.14243907602335792, 0.0, 0.00025498252310941446, 2.1962602899596155, 5.984185085196401e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9300123263831803, 0.2707674066105977, 0.7306857957834658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06473531073375978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2104191248124492, 0.0, 0.6787916094410827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33954305072254265, 0.0, 0.13452470618754994, 0.034206620683440256, 0.023002100031442946, 0.0, 0.0009283071419673167, 0.0001626670157522502, 0.0, 0.15951602725501066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9963659191649977 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.22287349238872, "coverage": 0.9974226606660546, "baseline_score": 8.626633484925277, "spot_peer_score": 8.063426147359774, "peer_archived_score": 15.22287349238872, "baseline_archived_score": 8.626633484925277, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.063426147359774 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604312139.376183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604312139.376183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6489594009892132, 0.3510405990107868 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 32, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 298, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are many groups forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election using (primarily) polls based models. 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Markets such as (the now defunct) InTrade, the Iowa Electronic Markets, PredictIt, and others ask users to buy and sell shares assigned to each candidate in each race, so that the price point corresponds to the probability of victory. In this question we focus on PredictIt, which allows users to place relatively small real-money bets on candidates.\n\nBoth FiveThirtyEight and PredictIt have published probabilities for each state in the 2020 Presidential Election.\n\nWhich forecasts will prove to be more accurate?", "resolution_criteria": "To compare, we will score each set of predictions using a Brier score averaged over all N=51 races, computed as\n\n\\[ S = \\frac{1}{N}\\sum_{i=1}^{N}\\sum_{j=1}^{M}(p_{ij}−o_{ij})^2 \\]\n\nwhere \\( j \\) enumerates the \\(M_i\\) possible outcomes (i.e. possible winners) in the \\(i\\)th race out of N, where \\(p_{ij}\\) is the forecast probability of candidate \\(j\\) winning the \\(i\\)th race, and \\(o_{ij}\\) is assigned 1 if candidate \\(j\\) wins the \\(i\\)th race, and 0 otherwise.\n\nFor example, if PredictIt assigned 52% to Trump and 48% to Biden in Texas and if Trump won then PredictIt would achieve a Brier Score of\n\\[ S=(0.52−1)^2+(0.48−0)^2=0.4608 \\]\n\nA lower Brier score is better, with perfect predictions corresponding to S=0. \n\nThis question resolves positively if the Brier score for the 51 races is lower for 538's probabilities than for PredictIt's probabilities, where we will take values as of 1400 UTC on 02-Nov-2020, and election outcomes as reported over the coming days.\n\nTo obtain the PredictIt probabilities, we will download the market data from [here](https://www.predictit.org/api/marketdata/all/) ; take the average of the prices for each contract (ie (bestSellYesCost + bestBuyYesCost + (1-bestSellNoCost) + (1-bestBuyNoCost))/4) ; and convert to probabilities as Dem_Probability = Dem_Price / (Dem_Price + Rep_Price).\n\n\nTo obtain the 538 probabilities we will download the CSV from [here](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_state_toplines_2020.csv) and take the winstate_inc for Republicans and winstate_chal for Democrats in each state. (Ignoring congressional district specific probabilities", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5502, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604356879.027345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604356879.027345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7379190128530311 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2118001597438285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5260560369581379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006905453924573398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020591683781788054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10397782755387994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009338405106678075, 0.1501226332963746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027746324208746075, 0.711200017235199, 0.03441582824434122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.903064785531003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5793094427885198, 0.016313681154631558, 0.2848573359687825, 0.0, 0.27938762653101, 0.19711090130037678, 0.9850780136018998, 0.10019486690171389, 0.5950853121110363, 0.38731494596590504, 0.03205485872214182, 1.1766988639161, 0.48992982368901916, 1.45062342962171, 0.0, 0.7134837221340523, 0.3655598090769043, 1.0644653977021523, 0.8267476411957239, 0.0, 0.025229145771871627, 0.29500527199938065, 1.3925302890256182, 0.0, 0.005772826331562885, 0.6532979204932203, 0.30110450932970517, 1.9178743248961938, 0.001075730585898714, 0.45083414889698753, 0.0001202313269185036, 0.051975036895786614, 0.6083458871836015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44665959934456234 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.581134478548697, "coverage": 0.99725502234267, "baseline_score": 62.64110463951847, "spot_peer_score": 2.5996089800576714, "peer_archived_score": 3.581134478548697, "baseline_archived_score": 62.64110463951847, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.5996089800576714 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604356879.067938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604356879.067938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.043385344915090385, 0.9566146550849096 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 159, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nate Silver and his [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) site has achieved significant notoriety for developing a system to carefully aggregate election polls to create well-calibrated statistical forecasts of outcome elections; his site publishes daily updates to predictions for primary and general elections in House, Senate and Presidential races.\n\nPrediction markets have offered an alternative to poll aggregation in forecasting elections. Markets such as (the now defunct) InTrade, the Iowa Electronic Markets, PredictIt, and others ask users to buy and sell shares assigned to each candidate in each race, so that the price point corresponds to the probability of victory. In this question we focus on PredictIt, which allows users to place relatively small real-money bets on candidates.\n\nBoth FiveThirtyEight and PredictIt have published probabilities for each state in the 2020 Presidential Election.\n\nWhich forecasts will prove to be more accurate?" } ] }
