Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5180
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Markets such as (the now defunct) InTrade, the Iowa Electronic Markets, PredictIt, and others ask users to buy and sell shares assigned to each candidate in each race, so that the price point corresponds to the probability of victory. In this question we focus on PredictIt, which allows users to place relatively small real-money bets on candidates.\n\nBoth FiveThirtyEight and PredictIt have published probabilities for each state in the 2020 Presidential Election.\n\nWhich forecasts will prove to be more accurate?", "resolution_criteria": "To compare, we will score each set of predictions using a Brier score averaged over all N=51 races, computed as\n\n\\[ S = \\frac{1}{N}\\sum_{i=1}^{N}\\sum_{j=1}^{M}(p_{ij}−o_{ij})^2 \\]\n\nwhere \\( j \\) enumerates the \\(M_i\\) possible outcomes (i.e. possible winners) in the \\(i\\)th race out of N, where \\(p_{ij}\\) is the forecast probability of candidate \\(j\\) winning the \\(i\\)th race, and \\(o_{ij}\\) is assigned 1 if candidate \\(j\\) wins the \\(i\\)th race, and 0 otherwise.\n\nFor example, if PredictIt assigned 52% to Trump and 48% to Biden in Texas and if Trump won then PredictIt would achieve a Brier Score of\n\\[ S=(0.52−1)^2+(0.48−0)^2=0.4608 \\]\n\nA lower Brier score is better, with perfect predictions corresponding to S=0. \n\nThis question resolves positively if the Brier score for the 51 races is lower for 538's probabilities than for PredictIt's probabilities, where we will take values as of 1400 UTC on 02-Nov-2020, and election outcomes as reported over the coming days.\n\nTo obtain the PredictIt probabilities, we will download the market data from [here](https://www.predictit.org/api/marketdata/all/) ; take the average of the prices for each contract (ie (bestSellYesCost + bestBuyYesCost + (1-bestSellNoCost) + (1-bestBuyNoCost))/4) ; and convert to probabilities as Dem_Probability = Dem_Price / (Dem_Price + Rep_Price).\n\n\nTo obtain the 538 probabilities we will download the CSV from [here](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_state_toplines_2020.csv) and take the winstate_inc for Republicans and winstate_chal for Democrats in each state. (Ignoring congressional district specific probabilities", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5502, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604356879.027345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604356879.027345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7379190128530311 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2118001597438285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5260560369581379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006905453924573398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020591683781788054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10397782755387994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009338405106678075, 0.1501226332963746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027746324208746075, 0.711200017235199, 0.03441582824434122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.903064785531003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5793094427885198, 0.016313681154631558, 0.2848573359687825, 0.0, 0.27938762653101, 0.19711090130037678, 0.9850780136018998, 0.10019486690171389, 0.5950853121110363, 0.38731494596590504, 0.03205485872214182, 1.1766988639161, 0.48992982368901916, 1.45062342962171, 0.0, 0.7134837221340523, 0.3655598090769043, 1.0644653977021523, 0.8267476411957239, 0.0, 0.025229145771871627, 0.29500527199938065, 1.3925302890256182, 0.0, 0.005772826331562885, 0.6532979204932203, 0.30110450932970517, 1.9178743248961938, 0.001075730585898714, 0.45083414889698753, 0.0001202313269185036, 0.051975036895786614, 0.6083458871836015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44665959934456234 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.581134478548697, "coverage": 0.99725502234267, "baseline_score": 62.64110463951847, "spot_peer_score": 2.5996089800576714, "peer_archived_score": 3.581134478548697, "baseline_archived_score": 62.64110463951847, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.5996089800576714 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604356879.067938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604356879.067938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.043385344915090385, 0.9566146550849096 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 159, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nate Silver and his [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) site has achieved significant notoriety for developing a system to carefully aggregate election polls to create well-calibrated statistical forecasts of outcome elections; his site publishes daily updates to predictions for primary and general elections in House, Senate and Presidential races.\n\nPrediction markets have offered an alternative to poll aggregation in forecasting elections. Markets such as (the now defunct) InTrade, the Iowa Electronic Markets, PredictIt, and others ask users to buy and sell shares assigned to each candidate in each race, so that the price point corresponds to the probability of victory. In this question we focus on PredictIt, which allows users to place relatively small real-money bets on candidates.\n\nBoth FiveThirtyEight and PredictIt have published probabilities for each state in the 2020 Presidential Election.\n\nWhich forecasts will prove to be more accurate?" }, { "id": 5463, "title": "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?", "short_title": "Mars Sample Mission vs Starship", "url_title": "Mars Sample Mission vs Starship", "slug": "mars-sample-mission-vs-starship", "author_id": 106736, "author_username": "nagolinc", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-17T10:02:48.287410Z", "published_at": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T08:44:59.962883Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5463, "title": "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?", "created_at": "2020-10-17T10:02:48.287410Z", "open_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-31T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\n\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "The resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\n\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\n\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\n\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\n\n\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it.\nBecause the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\n\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\n\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5463, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763455489.423461, "end_time": 1765534501.035995, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763455489.423461, "end_time": 1765534501.035995, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.29319815062249555 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.28456513246464565, 0.8567379068962085, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3849346318661529, 0.44046429262821457, 0.5558048629583994, 0.22064851814672642, 0.4353291004972613, 0.0, 1.691335726705248, 0.0, 0.04706262114429836, 0.47926031743965053, 0.0, 1.3122871606707847, 0.5840780212849049, 0.877966905572976, 0.16904521315006923, 0.0, 0.23108350437986752, 0.03360537165591879, 0.004797041861642196, 0.0, 0.3382946697140439, 0.5245353581837685, 0.0, 0.3229915319208214, 0.2856954116416899, 0.0, 0.15592787211782683, 0.0, 0.23608164356974304, 2.1351226646920303, 0.0, 0.027287483927777807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06907049790903583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12174916095518434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026350477753175415, 0.001992124026460697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059404042739326854, 0.0004766249178816012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4083828668699079, 0.0, 0.0003468500661995196, 0.3025590700220252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8445729946174979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6832930013687624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0509094210982425, 0.11420856681062896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9479509993067093 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289299.753183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289299.753183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9118714428702279, 0.08812855712977209 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 297, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\n\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026." }, { "id": 5462, "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", "short_title": "Erin O'Toole to be PM of Canada before 2024?", "url_title": "Erin O'Toole to be PM of Canada before 2024?", "slug": "erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-17T00:10:49.309044Z", "published_at": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.492709Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5462, "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", "created_at": "2020-10-17T00:10:49.309044Z", "open_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-22T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-22T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\n\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\n\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\n\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 5462, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632004228.704623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632004228.704623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.328637472750199 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9117260662861288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.054129714482122636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055997352917771685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002443062932311581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9437171652598805, 0.016491822030230655, 0.4884147533971319, 0.14098862105980575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8922600742944088, 0.16454035208274115, 0.0, 0.6609726698816549, 1.3756459167785118, 0.0, 0.844117279852562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013550184787389273, 1.1002141384944677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7433533436152795, 0.47051118202622, 2.490097233539497, 1.6663835705440246, 0.45716477945663025, 0.176921206317764, 0.7589717151475438, 0.09994400640967899, 0.8214988924764894, 0.4274130675954733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026016125215447303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012062988077826794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015174815764353458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012808209520579696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016946764592253687 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.575534073095712, "coverage": 0.999729740533411, "baseline_score": 51.58849721138963, "spot_peer_score": 49.04146265058632, "peer_archived_score": 11.575534073095712, "baseline_archived_score": 51.58849721138963, "spot_peer_archived_score": 49.04146265058632 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632004228.723134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632004228.723134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7016471116495905, 0.2983528883504095 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 304, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\n\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\n\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\n\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal." }, { "id": 5459, "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?", "short_title": "Psilocybin not schedule I < 2036", "url_title": "Psilocybin not schedule I < 2036", "slug": "psilocybin-not-schedule-i-2036", "author_id": 110540, "author_username": "randallburns", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-16T22:54:43.986680Z", "published_at": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T16:20:07.037618Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5459, "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?", "created_at": "2020-10-16T22:54:43.986680Z", "open_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n\n\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.", "resolution_criteria": "A credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5459, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763490755.518965, "end_time": 1768510034.156744, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.693 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763490755.518965, "end_time": 1768510034.156744, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.693 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30700000000000005, 0.693 ], "means": [ 0.6636176548483819 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289248.817692, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289248.817692, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3660709913891931, 0.6339290086108069 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 165, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n\n\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate." }, { "id": 5449, "title": "Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?", "short_title": "Will polling fail to call the elections?", "url_title": "Will polling fail to call the elections?", "slug": "will-polling-fail-to-call-the-elections", "author_id": 114683, "author_username": "yshemesh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-15T11:02:25.413158Z", "published_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.826618Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T19:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T19:30:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 119, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5449, "title": "Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?", "created_at": "2020-10-15T11:02:25.413158Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T23:40:02.638817Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T23:40:02.638817Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T19:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T19:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-15T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6XyZdE41rcAsbDT).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n\nPrior to the 2016 US presidential elections, the latest polling averages [indicated ](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html)that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote versus Republican candidate Donald Trump by a margin of +3.2%. The true margin in the popular vote turned out to be only +2.1% in favor of Clinton. In other words, the disparity between the average margin in the polls and the true margin was 1.1%.\n\n\nAs of 15 October 2020, RealClearPolitics.com is [reporting ](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html)an average margin of +9.2% in favor of Democratic candidate Joe Biden over Donald Trump. \n\nThis question asks:\n\n***Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3% percentage points or more?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if the final results of the popular vote indicate a margin between the candidates that is wider or narrower by 3 percentage points or more than the latest available spread according to [RealClearPolitics.com](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html). The question resolves negatively if this disparity is less than 3.0%.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6XyZdE41rcAsbDT).***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5449, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033816.162839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033816.162839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.43242435343272495 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2693003481519267, 0.003634769822694603, 0.012890385051929602, 0.02478269717901555, 0.0787000215845657, 0.0, 0.002998351620838225, 0.0, 0.25427978550160435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5448, "title": "Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?", "created_at": "2020-10-15T09:34:30.158395Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T23:39:32.067236Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T23:39:32.067236Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-12T18:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-12T18:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-12T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_cATWWbMwP0MCgpn).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\n\n\nCurrently, with 53 seats, the Republican Party occupies a majority of the 100 seats in the [Senate](https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm).\n\nThe [2020 United States Senate elections](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions) will be held on November 3, 2020, with the 33 Class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections and 2 seats in special elections. In all Republicans will be defending 23 seats, and Democrats 12 seats.\n\nAccording to [Vox](https://www.vox.com/21403958/most-competitive-senate-races-2020):\n\n> Democrats need to win back at least three seats to reclaim the Senate majority, but they are also defending Sen. Doug Jones in deep-red Alabama, where Trump has a [28-point net approval rating](https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/). If Jones loses, that means Democrats need to win four seats and the White House (where their party's vice president could vote to break ties in the Senate), or net five seats without the White House advantage.\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if Democrats hold 51 seats or more in the Senate according to the official election results.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, counts of Democratic seats includes all independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_cATWWbMwP0MCgpn).**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5448, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033589.336587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033589.336587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6591170817057154 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.188971621236243, 0.0, 5.556489332607938e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017538941986707645, 0.0, 0.04841700148336805, 0.00745418629536983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.635717344628992e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1420155709338309, 0.0, 0.28084641745992256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07589204048107273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001652370656701535, 0.924988025709306, 0.0, 0.0069616495762536085, 0.0, 0.041086997265190724, 0.4764090752205964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2509873673912551, 0.015219299301503597, 0.0, 0.30237158364888866, 0.3144556571592579, 0.00391614254509903, 0.026833913850590453, 0.3205151149837821, 6.761387105445791e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.379135593274181, 0.3930807510023772, 0.2104408087190602, 0.3766510859579988, 1.3040525360233062e-05, 2.6840676341304714, 0.00033385358585663377, 0.9365850367841674, 0.592301281397971, 0.7488714261999606, 0.8651325835968651, 0.0, 1.2538904192224893, 0.4158777750596529, 1.2862718279791536, 1.2897217448438993, 0.011092544960324743, 1.102016307013225, 0.04622880756807158, 0.1564304356434259, 0.9406250128920606, 0.19973718812215716, 0.0, 0.004896446781029056, 0.0, 0.317195412713213, 0.5492444127266136, 0.0033795585328046988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11164418980457705, 0.017212904031756418, 0.16089470237550246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4985801039545317 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.25064711452084143, "coverage": 0.9112034190284825, "baseline_score": -63.60614965913014, "spot_peer_score": 11.720084104474477, "peer_archived_score": 0.25064711452084143, "baseline_archived_score": -63.60614965913014, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.720084104474477 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033589.39412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033589.39412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.05211353520730955, 0.9478864647926905 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 237, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_cATWWbMwP0MCgpn).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\n\n\nCurrently, with 53 seats, the Republican Party occupies a majority of the 100 seats in the [Senate](https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm).\n\nThe [2020 United States Senate elections](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions) will be held on November 3, 2020, with the 33 Class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections and 2 seats in special elections. In all Republicans will be defending 23 seats, and Democrats 12 seats.\n\nAccording to [Vox](https://www.vox.com/21403958/most-competitive-senate-races-2020):\n\n> Democrats need to win back at least three seats to reclaim the Senate majority, but they are also defending Sen. Doug Jones in deep-red Alabama, where Trump has a [28-point net approval rating](https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/). If Jones loses, that means Democrats need to win four seats and the White House (where their party's vice president could vote to break ties in the Senate), or net five seats without the White House advantage.\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5445, "title": "Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?", "short_title": "SCOTUS to uphold ruling in Cali v. Texas", "url_title": "SCOTUS to uphold ruling in Cali v. Texas", "slug": "scotus-to-uphold-ruling-in-cali-v-texas", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-14T20:58:15.466336Z", "published_at": "2020-10-17T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.008633Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-17T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-17T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-17T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-17T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5445, "title": "Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?", "created_at": "2020-10-14T20:58:15.466336Z", "open_time": "2020-10-17T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-18T07:03:05.940198Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-18T07:03:05.940198Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-17T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-17T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-06-17T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From the Kaiser Family Foundation,\n\n> The Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) future continues to be uncertain as the law’s constitutionality will once again be considered by the U.S. Supreme Court in California v. Texas (known as Texas v. U.S. in the lower courts). Oral argument is scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2020. This ongoing litigation challenges the ACA’s minimum essential coverage provision (known as the individual mandate) and raises questions about the entire law’s survival. The individual mandate provides that most people must maintain a minimum level of health insurance coverage; those who do not do so must pay a financial penalty (known as the shared responsibility payment) to the IRS. The individual mandate was upheld as a constitutional exercise of Congress’ taxing power by a five member majority of the Supreme Court in NFIB v. Sebelius in 2012.\n\n> In the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), Congress set the shared responsibility payment at zero dollars as of January 1, 2019, leading to the current litigation. In December 2019, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit affirmed the trial court’s decision that the individual mandate is no longer constitutional because the associated financial penalty no longer “produces at least some revenue” for the federal government. But, instead of deciding whether the rest of the ACA must be struck down, the 5th Circuit sent the case back to the trial court for additional analysis. However, the Supreme Court has now agreed to review the case.\n\n> The ACA remains in effect while the litigation is pending. However, if all or most of the law ultimately is struck down, it will have complex and far-reaching consequences for the nation’s health care system, affecting nearly everyone in some way. A host of ACA provisions could be eliminated, including protections for people with pre-existing conditions, subsidies to make individual health insurance more affordable, expanded eligibility for Medicaid, coverage of young adults up to age 26 under their parents’ insurance policies, coverage of preventive care with no patient cost-sharing, closing of the doughnut hole under Medicare’s drug benefit, and a series of tax increases to fund these initiatives.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if credible media report that the Supreme Court of the United States upheld [the decision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_v._Texas#Fifth_Circuit) of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit to declare parts of the Affordable Care Act and the minimum essential coverage provision (ie. the individual mandate) unconstitutional.", "fine_print": "I don't understand law well enough to distinguish between potential rulings in this case. Therefore, the question was worded specifically to avoid phrases like, \"Will the supreme court strike down Obamacare?\" since I don't know exactly what that would entail. The community should come to a consensus on the meanings of terms before the question closes, or else this question resolves ambiguously.", "post_id": 5445, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604988015.917577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604988015.917577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5495597500076016 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4994839393471079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008902640948057735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2966499093608476, 0.0, 0.19519530604924692, 0.0, 0.00741623973729105, 0.08622329263095156, 0.02737976958192116, 0.05730206168043847, 0.31768015703601027, 0.8749085186757798, 1.623994547069078, 0.2712168925010875, 1.0526817767526515, 1.699095550045166, 1.4171961148536507, 0.4613393007650011, 0.788892324161751, 0.1792663589359841, 0.0, 0.1147878510099504, 0.9940590329193496, 0.37068749199850365, 0.08301794281029115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.6616069072521713, 0.02872939583514363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3998823682256166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002164380995132114, 1.0474955069959242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03249305809127576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.590379090928051, "coverage": 0.9963172694781877, "baseline_score": 7.216047735694545, "spot_peer_score": 27.442994981989077, "peer_archived_score": 15.590379090928051, "baseline_archived_score": 7.216047735694545, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.442994981989077 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604988015.946064, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604988015.946064, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.547063492699057, 0.45293650730094304 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From the Kaiser Family Foundation,\n\n> The Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) future continues to be uncertain as the law’s constitutionality will once again be considered by the U.S. Supreme Court in California v. Texas (known as Texas v. U.S. in the lower courts). Oral argument is scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2020. This ongoing litigation challenges the ACA’s minimum essential coverage provision (known as the individual mandate) and raises questions about the entire law’s survival. The individual mandate provides that most people must maintain a minimum level of health insurance coverage; those who do not do so must pay a financial penalty (known as the shared responsibility payment) to the IRS. The individual mandate was upheld as a constitutional exercise of Congress’ taxing power by a five member majority of the Supreme Court in NFIB v. Sebelius in 2012.\n\n> In the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), Congress set the shared responsibility payment at zero dollars as of January 1, 2019, leading to the current litigation. In December 2019, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit affirmed the trial court’s decision that the individual mandate is no longer constitutional because the associated financial penalty no longer “produces at least some revenue” for the federal government. But, instead of deciding whether the rest of the ACA must be struck down, the 5th Circuit sent the case back to the trial court for additional analysis. However, the Supreme Court has now agreed to review the case.\n\n> The ACA remains in effect while the litigation is pending. However, if all or most of the law ultimately is struck down, it will have complex and far-reaching consequences for the nation’s health care system, affecting nearly everyone in some way. A host of ACA provisions could be eliminated, including protections for people with pre-existing conditions, subsidies to make individual health insurance more affordable, expanded eligibility for Medicaid, coverage of young adults up to age 26 under their parents’ insurance policies, coverage of preventive care with no patient cost-sharing, closing of the doughnut hole under Medicare’s drug benefit, and a series of tax increases to fund these initiatives." }, { "id": 5441, "title": "Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?", "short_title": "Terrorist attack in OECD founder state", "url_title": "Terrorist attack in OECD founder state", "slug": "terrorist-attack-in-oecd-founder-state", "author_id": 114683, "author_username": "yshemesh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-14T16:14:57.482849Z", "published_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.959736Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-06T16:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-06T16:36:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 142, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5441, "title": "Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?", "created_at": "2020-10-14T16:14:57.482849Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T23:21:20.786301Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T23:21:20.786301Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-06T16:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-06T16:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-03-06T16:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_dba1dRp4QflfL5b).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_2020), in 2020 there were 7 terrorist attacks in OECD founding member states. \n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "An event will be considered a 'terrorist attack' if it is described as such by any agency of the state authorities of the country where the attack occurred. Mass shootings or other criminal events that are not considered to be 'terrorist attacks' by authrities do not count.\n\nOECD founding member states include: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, including all territorial waters. \n\nVictims that die after March 1 2021 of injuries sustained in an event before March 1 202 will not be included.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_dba1dRp4QflfL5b).**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5441, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033123.625244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033123.625244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6091521027510877 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8648494414696644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.775757348605168e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28963707595502913, 0.0, 0.03874815761661803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009693832712342202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002087448773304047, 0.0007304594048932909, 0.028731102779656684, 0.007865198723724822, 0.07921863098108327, 0.0, 0.005471670285535592, 0.0, 0.001326949386462604, 0.001094611498870895, 0.0, 0.46534374244463556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5236416942095363, 0.0, 0.21954750943151352, 0.0, 0.00613807075232256, 0.0, 0.05721208368484978, 1.7968611705694135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18835542888853646, 0.09283019883527478, 0.6812590197160346, 0.0, 0.23205946791153725, 1.184179045510997, 0.0009914170369239442, 0.11422547386668287, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8151952349838854, 0.00843853250531313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3044480406396084, 0.7753261510269218, 0.8092273486669693, 0.5003734647011705, 0.013217270266244816, 1.551521733984118, 0.02267703392429755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5084263595516836, 0.0, 0.048403610521149616, 0.01110703263330064, 0.621876111890639, 0.609638356284552, 0.0037282364174326984, 0.0, 0.572033000426935, 0.20756829622654385, 0.9188244953720479, 0.0, 0.42546612034088355, 0.029081735996246895, 0.08354297108248464, 0.9921567904864315, 0.16253362924052536, 0.7020141124215177, 0.0, 0.03256494625787176, 0.11198504580363455, 0.0, 0.13306994972951244, 0.0, 0.17936431527968769, 0.28021465640779525, 0.0, 0.39996617905436926, 0.0, 0.610127988855101 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.884256522788936, "coverage": 0.9111412403626806, "baseline_score": -37.982058469306395, "spot_peer_score": 59.5533203379293, "peer_archived_score": 11.884256522788936, "baseline_archived_score": -37.982058469306395, "spot_peer_archived_score": 59.5533203379293 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033123.671413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033123.671413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06770237044567873, 0.9322976295543213 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 228, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_dba1dRp4QflfL5b).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_2020), in 2020 there were 7 terrorist attacks in OECD founding member states. \n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5440, "title": "Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?", "short_title": "10 fatalities due to post-election violence", "url_title": "10 fatalities due to post-election violence", "slug": "10-fatalities-due-to-post-election-violence", "author_id": 114683, "author_username": "yshemesh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-14T14:33:11.183552Z", "published_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.540846Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-23T12:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-23T12:08:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5440, "title": "Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?", "created_at": "2020-10-14T14:33:11.183552Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T21:12:32.362056Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T21:12:32.362056Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-23T12:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-23T12:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-23T12:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_2gw83ZGjcPYqhUh).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nThere are[ mounting concerns](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-contested-2020-election-would-be-way-worse-than-bush-v-gore/) that the nearing US presidential elections will be contested. Sitting president Donald Trump has attacked the legitimacy of the voting system and publicly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power in the event that he loses the election. In light of the complications and time involved in resolving a contested election,[ some have warned ](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/01/all-the-red-flags-political-analysts-warn-of-us-election-violence.html) of civil unrest and the possibility of violent outbreaks following the election.\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves on the basis of credible media reports that link deaths to election-related violence. Note that such deaths must occur as a direct result of violent confrontation that is primarily linked to election activity. For example, a fatal clash at the polls or at an election-related protest would count. By contrast, a fatal clash at a Black Lives Matter protest would not count since this would not be primarily linked to the election. Any deaths that occur due to violence before 3 November or after 20 January would not count for this question.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_2gw83ZGjcPYqhUh).**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5440, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033778.686832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033778.686832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.38239067603302523 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4005258232471355, 0.486376731860861, 0.07944481841158763, 0.0, 0.3605182415395519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6299373983053059, 0.0, 0.12185471707790284, 0.17728540275139765, 0.2999229857703221, 0.31039658183015756, 0.8054782153855946, 0.5903761792846672, 0.01181752408670922, 0.0015531014628633246, 0.08368421646330189, 0.07762781333937405, 1.2568784754555964, 0.03510571765614411, 0.24035692139148296, 0.5533342341542669, 0.8469658449472564, 1.9768358541906466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06114742356545321, 0.0, 0.8514168263568633, 0.0, 0.00478616569246074, 0.5094999404398666, 0.004123281004336947, 0.12562172981119993, 1.401544486204949, 0.3857450023285471, 0.007873553736050743, 0.0, 0.057535370687414364, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8932347172000016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9595319366703575, 0.000590855014400108, 0.2721213891858135, 0.7156747103335213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007521884108804481, 0.1769212063177643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.055757188272639, 0.026321586654619915, 0.5754121312318907, 0.5298134264878649, 0.0, 0.005172613634611831, 0.00047498862671102094, 0.01031123483296608, 0.0, 0.10340228545285907, 0.5864963205419074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9543899379435015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03726628787764004, 0.19456878134303315, 0.004492054941715146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033504355242035266, 0.7861320937783486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01425927397094891, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029539397860986596, 0.0, 0.005537830714382473, 0.0, 0.051304846438905094 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 44.774753472341224, "coverage": 0.9114084228130823, "baseline_score": 39.66178677061237, "spot_peer_score": 18.271303276826202, "peer_archived_score": 44.774753472341224, "baseline_archived_score": 39.66178677061237, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.271303276826202 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033778.751832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033778.751832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8953033714748395, 0.10469662852516051 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_2gw83ZGjcPYqhUh).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nThere are[ mounting concerns](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-contested-2020-election-would-be-way-worse-than-bush-v-gore/) that the nearing US presidential elections will be contested. Sitting president Donald Trump has attacked the legitimacy of the voting system and publicly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power in the event that he loses the election. In light of the complications and time involved in resolving a contested election,[ some have warned ](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/01/all-the-red-flags-political-analysts-warn-of-us-election-violence.html) of civil unrest and the possibility of violent outbreaks following the election.\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5438, "title": "Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?", "short_title": "12M COVID cases in the US by Christmas?", "url_title": "12M COVID cases in the US by Christmas?", "slug": "12m-covid-cases-in-the-us-by-christmas", "author_id": 114683, "author_username": "yshemesh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-14T14:23:29.603479Z", "published_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.047774Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-22T00:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-22T00:42:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 134, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5438, "title": "Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?", "created_at": "2020-10-14T14:23:29.603479Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T21:27:08.112362Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T21:27:08.112362Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-22T00:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-22T00:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-22T00:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_5bErCTkXy2CHbBb).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nAs of 14 October 2020, the number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States stands at[ approximately 7,894,800](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). Following a[ peak in July](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), the rate of new confirmed cases in August and the beginning of September had trended downward, however, since mid-September new confirmed cases have been on the rise.\n\nThroughout the course of its spread in the United States, US president Donald Trump had been publicly dismissive of the threat posed by the virus. After having contracted coronavirus in early October, and quickly recovering, the President has doubled down on his message to the public that they[ should not be afraid of the disease](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/health/trump-covid-public-health.html).\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves according to data on[ Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resources](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases) website on the 24th of December at 11:59PM ET.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_5bErCTkXy2CHbBb).**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5438, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033429.439512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033429.439512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7785094497425561 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4981843111389125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03580650666916036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005126911695283252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00045153685678304007, 0.026289570704733038, 0.032067565022522504, 0.0, 3.8624516507992804e-05, 0.002354746642357846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005240797579239093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04068742959931718, 0.000395967066324184, 0.04822714908494281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03283199739927327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002588628657294159, 0.003199102401852327, 0.2521331707732651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12381039919682506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08703837928937035, 0.007136111048620068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7040789794002941, 0.40735783190262953, 0.7612746794441402, 0.11702713142993891, 0.856924516722031, 0.0, 1.5356022748768152, 0.22860838647151283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044913985662573284, 0.9618961830584124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10019554760085114, 0.0006534815775908608, 0.37930310684979296, 0.7846437780048856, 0.0, 0.20683437995719156, 0.010297677415753444, 2.740009179554849, 0.06544396025081349, 0.2917796251612016, 0.011862080558890362, 0.0, 1.5490695736768105, 1.1990716486613524, 0.007691549884751123, 0.8022751843541975, 0.21867169281413268, 2.043024815556457, 0.02171243349557248, 0.0, 0.5883249276867131, 0.0, 1.960687048543466, 0.33403609617393654, 0.1870569868238475, 0.0, 1.3382912122654036 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 27.197074384352554, "coverage": 0.9113346686563152, "baseline_score": 40.65108421453357, "spot_peer_score": 33.01565355815354, "peer_archived_score": 27.197074384352554, "baseline_archived_score": 40.65108421453357, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.01565355815354 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033429.537906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033429.537906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03679872783728455, 0.9632012721627154 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 206, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_5bErCTkXy2CHbBb).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nAs of 14 October 2020, the number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States stands at[ approximately 7,894,800](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). Following a[ peak in July](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), the rate of new confirmed cases in August and the beginning of September had trended downward, however, since mid-September new confirmed cases have been on the rise.\n\nThroughout the course of its spread in the United States, US president Donald Trump had been publicly dismissive of the threat posed by the virus. After having contracted coronavirus in early October, and quickly recovering, the President has doubled down on his message to the public that they[ should not be afraid of the disease](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/health/trump-covid-public-health.html).\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5437, "title": "Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?", "short_title": "North Korea Missile Launch by March 2021", "url_title": "North Korea Missile Launch by March 2021", "slug": "north-korea-missile-launch-by-march-2021", "author_id": 114683, "author_username": "yshemesh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-14T14:15:53.984995Z", "published_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.633063Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-06T16:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-06T16:38:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 118, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5437, "title": "Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?", "created_at": "2020-10-14T14:15:53.984995Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T21:25:40.754173Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T21:25:40.754173Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-06T16:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-06T16:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-03-06T16:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_a4VExyl6e1QGHFb).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\n\nOver the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\n\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\n\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice. If an intercontinental ballistic missile is tested, even if the test fails, the question resolves positively.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_a4VExyl6e1QGHFb).**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5437, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033795.495347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033795.495347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25347311250700644 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0392239452472745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00045259954456378565, 0.2955660110656563, 0.0, 0.02649347010740746, 0.06926788139800302, 0.2532122018799202, 2.602733607080926, 0.0, 0.39570331646309165, 0.3275920658245623, 0.14455751614669107, 1.5525377938082459, 0.003139282596533214, 0.6274723550384345, 0.014871649404928165, 0.8727044486301541, 0.995085405166424, 0.311168480244919, 0.0, 0.009110146485231669, 0.0, 0.9972774744026677, 0.0, 0.06077828290366635, 1.1146202546869213, 0.0, 2.201937797896549, 0.0, 0.7924430171500773, 0.05629884575066048, 0.0, 0.10254503067690987, 0.0, 0.44356768643702, 0.0776024229822667, 0.02420122414348384, 2.261535638924727, 0.0, 0.01689985041839291, 0.5144065031085814, 0.0, 0.9244433652992305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47233631467018145, 0.0, 0.0028433268361718112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40135613840242035, 0.008395848169131099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018730169681004513, 0.0, 0.013496269475166352, 0.0, 0.004582296826085957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.2077347573969934e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13120167643180158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03406565054906542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029768298428289708 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.363676011279408, "coverage": 0.9115689434757852, "baseline_score": 62.90597682790691, "spot_peer_score": 7.996964623821816, "peer_archived_score": 12.363676011279408, "baseline_archived_score": 62.90597682790691, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.996964623821816 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033795.533427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033795.533427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9584342193150523, 0.04156578068494764 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 163, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_a4VExyl6e1QGHFb).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\n\nOver the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\n\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\n\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5434, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?", "short_title": "Gladys Berejiklian's Premiership", "url_title": "Gladys Berejiklian's Premiership", "slug": "gladys-berejiklians-premiership", "author_id": 112497, "author_username": "helpermonkey", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-14T07:43:01.443241Z", "published_at": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.097775Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-13T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-13T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-02T10:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-02T10:40:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5434, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?", "created_at": "2020-10-14T07:43:01.443241Z", "open_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T01:20:22.765247Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T01:20:22.765247Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-02T10:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-02T10:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-02T10:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-13T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-13T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of [New South Wales](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales), Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis. \n\nOver the last week, it has been revealed at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had a five year 'close personal relationship' with another member of State Parliament, Daryl Maguire. Maguire resigned in 2018 after it was revealed that he had sought inappropriate payments in return for favours to developers. Over the last week ICAC has found that not only did Maguire receive payments from developers in return for favours, he was [also involved in a 'cash for visa's scam' targeting Chinese nationals](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-14/gladys-berejiklian-daryl-maguire-icac-evidence-live-blog/12761936). Ms Berejiklian has not been directly implicated in either scheme.\n\nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\n\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had [7 premiers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_of_New_South_Wales). Of these, 1 was defeated by a leadership spill, 4 resigned, and 1 lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if, before 1 December 2020, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian, The Australian.\n\nThe question will close retrospectively, 24 hours before the event occurs", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5434, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1605269647.880652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1605269647.880652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.09268115853732224 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2168121871892493, 0.7228487183092426, 1.0927269538363944, 0.0, 1.2159500893770254, 0.3235495858073233, 1.8028348528726639, 0.6529502345302941, 0.0, 2.148281153341515, 0.06594039540813919, 0.04939379203556264, 0.11064264398533052, 0.0, 1.4834275487121458, 0.05659792380908901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12469124550422711, 1.0508420351322871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030314528419522604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.324753446468065, "coverage": 0.999576359644061, "baseline_score": 72.64738026181823, "spot_peer_score": 2.058043477876821, "peer_archived_score": 12.324753446468065, "baseline_archived_score": 72.64738026181823, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.058043477876821 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1605269647.905287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1605269647.905287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9945973575096158, 0.005402642490384263 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 136, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of [New South Wales](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales), Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis. \n\nOver the last week, it has been revealed at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had a five year 'close personal relationship' with another member of State Parliament, Daryl Maguire. Maguire resigned in 2018 after it was revealed that he had sought inappropriate payments in return for favours to developers. Over the last week ICAC has found that not only did Maguire receive payments from developers in return for favours, he was [also involved in a 'cash for visa's scam' targeting Chinese nationals](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-14/gladys-berejiklian-daryl-maguire-icac-evidence-live-blog/12761936). Ms Berejiklian has not been directly implicated in either scheme.\n\nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\n\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had [7 premiers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_of_New_South_Wales). Of these, 1 was defeated by a leadership spill, 4 resigned, and 1 lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption." }, { "id": 5431, "title": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?", "short_title": "EU Cage-Free Proposal by 2024-10-31", "url_title": "EU Cage-Free Proposal by 2024-10-31", "slug": "eu-cage-free-proposal-by-2024-10-31", "author_id": 109190, "author_username": "NeilDullaghan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-13T20:33:00.540036Z", "published_at": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.320036Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-01T06:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T06:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T21:18:55Z", "open_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5431, "title": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2020-10-13T20:33:00.540036Z", "open_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-17T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T21:18:55Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-01T21:23:42.469243Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T06:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-01T06:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.*\n\nEuropean Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of \"enriched\" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.\n\nIn July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the \"[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)\" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project \"[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)\". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023.\n\n[Directives](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#directives) are a type of EU law that define goals that have to be incorporated into the national law of countries in the EU within a certain time period but allow some flexibility for countries to apply rules to achieve these goals, and to set stricter standards if they wish. [Regulations](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#regulations) are binding rules with immediate direct effect in member states and therefore are much stronger instruments but do not allow flexibility to accommodate different legal systems across the 27 EU countries. As the only institution in the EU that can formally initiate legislation, it is up to the European Commission to launch a directive or regulation. Proposals move back and forth through the other institutions of the EU for amendments and votes and may eventually be passed into law. A number of EU members have announced their own national restrictions on caging hens that go beyond existing EU requirements.\n\n* Germany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship.\n* In Austria, a [ban](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/research/species-laying-hens/laying-hens-case-study-austria/) on enriched cages comes into force in 2020.\n* In Luxembourg, the [ban](http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmenvfru/writev/egg/egg.pdf) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there.\n* In September 2020, the Deputy Chamber of the Czech Parliament approved a total [ban on cages](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/09/victory-for-czech-hens?utm_campaign%3Dcageage%26utm_source%3Dfacebook%26utm_medium%3Dciwf%26fbclid%3DIwAR3jCdGH3OATBg9o3vJBmpbZ6PXrjLAR3U5z8jHJQH9crY1iGDyBDTSPPDQ) for laying hens from 2027. It has yet to be passed by the Czech Senate.\n* The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030.\n* In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/ambitious-animal-welfare-code-wallonia-including-ban-battery-caged-hens), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. Flanders, the other major province in Belgium, was also due to make such a ban but it has [not happened yet](https://www.animalrights.be/ben-weyts-waar-blijft-het-verbod-op-kooieieren) (although there was some suggestion back in 2009 that a full cage ban would not come [until 2040](https://www.thepoultrysite.com/articles/upgrading-hen-housing-latest-developments-in-europe)).\n* France is to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients).\n* The Netherlands plans to [ban enriched cages](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/calling-dutch-agricultural-minister-ban-cages-laying-hens) from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used.\n\nIn September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting and media [claimed](http://eagri.cz/public/web/mze/tiskovy-servis/tiskove-zpravy/x2020_ministr-zemedelstvi-jednotny-trh-by-mel.html) that \"the European Commission and some member states, e. g. Austria, France, Denmark, Sweden or Slovakia, welcomed the Czech proposal.” Note that Czechia is due to take over the rotating Presidency of the European Council in July 2022 until December 2022 and Sweden will take over from January 2023 to June 2023. The Greek Minister of Rural Development and Food, Makis Voridis, [signalled](https://www.agro24.gr/agrotika/agrotiki-epikairotita/eyropaiki-enosi/yper-tis-ethelontikis-symmetohis-sta-oikologika) support for an EU ban on the use of cages for hens. Cypriot Minister for Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Kadis, [allegedly](https://twitter.com/Olga_CIWF/status/1310932201354256385) offered support for an EU ban. The EU Commission serves a 5 year term, and the current term is due to end on 31 October 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. \n \nIn the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5431, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730419285.757843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730419285.757843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07146412641245962 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.817860899060588, 5.147529989658957, 0.0, 0.4186751432977572, 1.2202724794122846, 2.1022111578900367, 1.0335962638649767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11145202140397183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05786921092248747, 0.0, 0.11815224445332724, 0.08611494246862797, 0.0, 0.22843209143678875, 0.30626019080881717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6702663850065762, 0.0011798819700123038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21822660395650578, 0.0, 0.16018293680577148, 0.020785831404753825, 0.012031394369407493, 0.0, 0.0011898388370891663, 0.007398067917765334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11218337564002986, 0.13566264407512055, 0.0025918112066996325, 0.0006301126768428149, 0.286117187631238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028302944141520087, 0.06122271217673189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027210873644070457, 0.09243033037527341, 0.031763976957128764, 0.006102727274174003, 0.047046886066242875, 0.0, 0.013414550995643511, 0.020021302091281404, 0.018234922132803033, 0.0455412498241368, 0.0, 0.040842215977261474, 0.018387486178885467, 0.0, 0.04385040977331752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03301180409896362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01527916057146952, 0.032236901857962685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008124474579051055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00229979934405528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03801266836034276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -7.104261267075868, "peer_score": 2.7056883362604482, "coverage": 0.9999419770789689, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999419770789689, "spot_peer_score": 10.164496841318659, "baseline_archived_score": -7.104261267075868, "peer_archived_score": 2.7056883362604482, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.164496841318659 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288593.194476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288593.194476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9901328483411403, 0.009867151658859695 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 423, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.*\n\nEuropean Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of \"enriched\" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.\n\nIn July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the \"[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)\" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project \"[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)\". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023.\n\n[Directives](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#directives) are a type of EU law that define goals that have to be incorporated into the national law of countries in the EU within a certain time period but allow some flexibility for countries to apply rules to achieve these goals, and to set stricter standards if they wish. [Regulations](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#regulations) are binding rules with immediate direct effect in member states and therefore are much stronger instruments but do not allow flexibility to accommodate different legal systems across the 27 EU countries. As the only institution in the EU that can formally initiate legislation, it is up to the European Commission to launch a directive or regulation. Proposals move back and forth through the other institutions of the EU for amendments and votes and may eventually be passed into law. A number of EU members have announced their own national restrictions on caging hens that go beyond existing EU requirements.\n\n* Germany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship.\n* In Austria, a [ban](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/research/species-laying-hens/laying-hens-case-study-austria/) on enriched cages comes into force in 2020.\n* In Luxembourg, the [ban](http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmenvfru/writev/egg/egg.pdf) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there.\n* In September 2020, the Deputy Chamber of the Czech Parliament approved a total [ban on cages](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/09/victory-for-czech-hens?utm_campaign%3Dcageage%26utm_source%3Dfacebook%26utm_medium%3Dciwf%26fbclid%3DIwAR3jCdGH3OATBg9o3vJBmpbZ6PXrjLAR3U5z8jHJQH9crY1iGDyBDTSPPDQ) for laying hens from 2027. It has yet to be passed by the Czech Senate.\n* The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030.\n* In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/ambitious-animal-welfare-code-wallonia-including-ban-battery-caged-hens), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. Flanders, the other major province in Belgium, was also due to make such a ban but it has [not happened yet](https://www.animalrights.be/ben-weyts-waar-blijft-het-verbod-op-kooieieren) (although there was some suggestion back in 2009 that a full cage ban would not come [until 2040](https://www.thepoultrysite.com/articles/upgrading-hen-housing-latest-developments-in-europe)).\n* France is to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients).\n* The Netherlands plans to [ban enriched cages](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/calling-dutch-agricultural-minister-ban-cages-laying-hens) from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used.\n\nIn September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting and media [claimed](http://eagri.cz/public/web/mze/tiskovy-servis/tiskove-zpravy/x2020_ministr-zemedelstvi-jednotny-trh-by-mel.html) that \"the European Commission and some member states, e. g. Austria, France, Denmark, Sweden or Slovakia, welcomed the Czech proposal.” Note that Czechia is due to take over the rotating Presidency of the European Council in July 2022 until December 2022 and Sweden will take over from January 2023 to June 2023. The Greek Minister of Rural Development and Food, Makis Voridis, [signalled](https://www.agro24.gr/agrotika/agrotiki-epikairotita/eyropaiki-enosi/yper-tis-ethelontikis-symmetohis-sta-oikologika) support for an EU ban on the use of cages for hens. Cypriot Minister for Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Kadis, [allegedly](https://twitter.com/Olga_CIWF/status/1310932201354256385) offered support for an EU ban. The EU Commission serves a 5 year term, and the current term is due to end on 31 October 2024." }, { "id": 5427, "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?", "short_title": "Tax on childlessness in Russia before 2024", "url_title": "Tax on childlessness in Russia before 2024", "slug": "tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024", "author_id": 114953, "author_username": "xenohunter", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-13T10:21:16.412310Z", "published_at": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.988276Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-15T23:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-15T23:50:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, 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"2021-03-16T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\n\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n\n* [Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/);\n* [The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html).", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n\n* An explicit tax on childlessness.\n* A tax levied on each person except those with children.\n\nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\n\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. 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Finance commented on the idea of introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html)." }, { "id": 5423, "title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion (2020 USD) before 2027?", "short_title": "Stripe $1T Valuation before 2027", "url_title": "Stripe $1T Valuation before 2027", "slug": "stripe-1t-valuation-before-2027", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-12T13:20:20.275239Z", "published_at": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T06:58:25.890241Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5423, "title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion (2020 USD) before 2027?", "created_at": "2020-10-12T13:20:20.275239Z", "open_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-11T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.\n\nOn October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:\n\n> I'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.\n\nSomeone asked him to clarify his prediction: \"By market cap or evil?\", and Paul Graham responded:\n\n> By market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.\n\nPaul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Stripe achieves a $1,000,000,000 valuation (in 2020 USD) at any time before January 1, 2027, according to credible financial media reports.\n\nIf Stripe is acquired before reaching a $1T valuation, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5423, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763173179.923562, "end_time": 1763989016.199726, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763173179.923562, "end_time": 1763989016.199726, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.10166055479682452 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287852.818474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287852.818474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9837691338773894, 0.016230866122610616 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 211, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.\n\nOn October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:\n\n> I'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.\n\nSomeone asked him to clarify his prediction: \"By market cap or evil?\", and Paul Graham responded:\n\n> By market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.\n\nPaul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027." }, { "id": 5415, "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", "short_title": "NK launches ICBM again before 2022", "url_title": "NK launches ICBM again before 2022", "slug": "nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-11T17:27:17.856632Z", "published_at": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.017568Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T03:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T03:31:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 172, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5415, "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", "created_at": "2020-10-11T17:27:17.856632Z", "open_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-15T06:30:36.021514Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-15T06:30:36.021514Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T03:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T03:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T03:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\n\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\n\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\n\n>The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\n\n>Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\n>\"Largest *road-mobile* liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\n>\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\n\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5415, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634248489.55809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1634248489.55809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23468131881571214 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0697441167368001, 0.11527601469982206, 0.02520038727449331, 0.0, 0.2805007349400894, 0.0, 0.09589058910025577, 0.06893642749767333, 0.0, 0.7882519230731277, 0.4661148422087466, 0.7019483461658846, 0.46173379926335084, 0.1510861782189615, 2.8932098682243064, 1.8810583180410514, 2.0302705659563247, 0.17255135839394942, 0.5968009322285536, 2.984755456319659, 0.31723129052871, 0.16638685935956404, 0.706288338212382, 0.21186808171079707, 2.1517841785027016, 0.3908211348507964, 0.05206757382710257, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5505510386268024, 0.6883200490959541, 0.0, 0.8259871983731087, 0.0, 0.3136785484256921, 0.0014195171160782478, 0.5571543530448541, 0.7939154402128284, 0.005295651988794525, 0.02086936292001036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07498986045436731, 0.49064081752163435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024226153170526427, 0.0, 0.9326334315157592, 0.006392567444385361, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008666616801977955, 0.6111043201529283, 0.008544655622210967, 0.00857532453153527, 0.0, 2.839987717758435e-05, 0.002861521081405939, 0.0, 0.0016413333289357302, 0.00040433903231222964, 0.0013440404077577307, 0.00015751685255660375, 1.4889161160701465e-05, 0.00019700107869184363, 5.477416287310399e-06, 0.0, 0.0025795399098951996, 8.496937488810083e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006799959355379316, 0.002852021972463868, 0.0, 0.005407046068816154, 0.001777500588011576, 0.0022097474442470907, 0.0010634803810690373, 0.0002703217712831703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001199242279063509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3338940978179476e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00034901072757780174 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 24.120865908394435, "coverage": 0.9995522804552012, "baseline_score": -20.37547855151765, "spot_peer_score": 52.89486017472979, "peer_archived_score": 24.120865908394435, "baseline_archived_score": -20.37547855151765, "spot_peer_archived_score": 52.89486017472979 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1634248489.589584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1634248489.589584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8824827382869345, 0.11751726171306551 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 673, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\n\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\n\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\n\n>The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\n\n>Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\n>\"Largest *road-mobile* liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\n>\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University." }, { "id": 5414, "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?", "short_title": "Labour UK PM on January 1, 2030", "url_title": "Labour UK PM on January 1, 2030", "slug": "labour-uk-pm-on-january-1-2030", "author_id": 112510, "author_username": "isaacdunn", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-11T14:44:53.875276Z", "published_at": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T07:44:48.378094Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5414, "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2020-10-11T14:44:53.875276Z", "open_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-17T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-jan-1-2030/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the UK Prime Minister on January 1, 2030 is a member of the Labour Party.\n\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "If, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\n\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\n\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n\n1. The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01,\n2. The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and\n3. Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party.\n\nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.", "post_id": 5414, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763883877.885239, "end_time": 1764870263.319765, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763883877.885239, "end_time": 1764870263.319765, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.3972330591770291 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42520509353158464, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.174353459002126, 0.7003927598367212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2274559584151128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2665441514110732, 0.2162635545407669, 0.0, 1.7818174161860871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0220259818056598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04809577689274304, 0.0, 1.6697881809668997, 0.0, 0.742248634745384, 0.0021274407994285806, 0.3728600386790456, 0.8741397953995046, 0.0, 2.010626758726083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.024225649946178793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34256436668770546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012782418845274361, 0.7582541404996923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01280879331715797, 0.09845225789819712, 0.016079834428119808, 0.0, 0.10251256047355009, 0.0625760055549752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2166391779115857, 0.0, 0.08041869994316234, 0.0, 0.030097723134820904, 0.09096091514717795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5142368439049506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04006867348160595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0741010729489044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.697641568490803 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289156.224199, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289156.224199, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.37034805481542377, 0.6296519451845762 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 393, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-jan-1-2030/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010." }, { "id": 5413, "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?", "short_title": "Conservative UK PM on Jan 1, 2030", "url_title": "Conservative UK PM on Jan 1, 2030", "slug": "conservative-uk-pm-on-jan-1-2030", "author_id": 112510, "author_username": "isaacdunn", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-11T14:40:21.351748Z", "published_at": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:38:36.231587Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5413, "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2020-10-11T14:40:21.351748Z", "open_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-17T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the UK Prime Minister on January 1, 2030 is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\n\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "If, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\n\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\n\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n\n 1. The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01,\n 2. The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and\n 3. Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party.\n\nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.", "post_id": 5413, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763350705.769291, "end_time": 1765484707.9142, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763350705.769291, "end_time": 1765484707.9142, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19529205767266875 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.19929648861183932, 0.022958310465499978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4204562054872736, 0.6071499735707184, 1.5891881856552805, 0.07506829335206704, 0.4595825589405831, 0.2694370659864303, 0.0, 0.4237027679756393, 0.44614537099746654, 0.0, 1.189687689345618, 0.0, 0.06866972311929001, 0.0, 0.0, 2.025241247788098, 0.6466425724863939, 0.5683229184737245, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1376406800425876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46631380150936536, 0.0, 1.3583685069922824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21712097128322005, 0.0, 0.6493549814397372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17923052353117375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028142012145914122, 0.8319744872976708, 0.0, 0.04857271809392319, 0.016194143319162562, 0.0163259603251742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00837830513533033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0070876197014025175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007229492341188671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014318380015828209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288581.259649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288581.259649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8826028058682922, 0.11739719413170778 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 322, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world." }, { "id": 5411, "title": "Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?", "short_title": "Margaret Ferrier Resignation by April 2021", "url_title": "Margaret Ferrier Resignation by April 2021", "slug": "margaret-ferrier-resignation-by-april-2021", "author_id": 112510, "author_username": "isaacdunn", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-11T14:20:20.435785Z", "published_at": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.371587Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-04-01T17:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-04-01T17:43:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5411, "title": "Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?", "created_at": "2020-10-11T14:20:20.435785Z", "open_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-17T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-04-01T17:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-04-01T17:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-04-01T17:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Margaret Ferrier, a British MP, has [attracted controversy](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54383281) for travelling from Glasgow to London with Covid-19 symptoms, then returning home by train after testing positive in late September 2020.\n\nHer party [has removed the party whip and suspended her](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54386872), and made it clear that she should resign as MP. But she has not yet resigned, [claiming that](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54496759) the illness \"makes you act out of character\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Margaret Ferrier resigns as MP before 1st April 2021.", "fine_print": "British MPs cannot technically resign; MPs who wish to step down are instead appointed to an \"[office of profit under the Crown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_from_the_British_House_of_Commons)\", which disqualifies them from sitting in Parliament. There are two fictional offices usually used for this purpose.\nBy \"resign as MP\", this question means \"be appointed to an office of profit under the Crown\".\n\nNote that there are [other ways](https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2011/12/13/want-to-fire-your-mp-here-s-how) that Ferrier could be removed as MP without resigning; these do not trigger positive resolution.", "post_id": 5411, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1612133627.087633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1612133627.087633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2354264394861738 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2050974017457311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04665477216206774, 0.003276927759296195, 0.975059353592629, 0.0, 0.0026929702225732283, 0.0, 0.8865754792578854, 0.0, 0.4134223820577321, 1.3835499432827998, 0.7112617664519842, 0.06655370815568037, 0.6509344506122218, 0.006124783162927387, 0.8282924031581311, 0.0013141707011951615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4474665632205846, 2.8507783370010364, 0.0, 0.7509732289963252, 0.7330467297285997, 0.0, 0.932240055195937, 0.0, 0.16379137886358097, 1.2770417995546977, 0.5754728713121025, 0.02531939678828675, 0.4254506735450392, 0.13831970987856118, 0.0, 0.031191153071574097, 0.4418583912301043, 0.0, 0.028134217409661617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17669137990545516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038098485368474766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014357330374357432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00742799989072429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.200029411407464, "coverage": 0.999994560427167, "baseline_score": 66.75361246023832, "spot_peer_score": 15.133440585394524, "peer_archived_score": 5.200029411407464, "baseline_archived_score": 66.75361246023832, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.133440585394524 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1612133627.12087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1612133627.12087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8357989583254484, 0.16420104167455163 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 228, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Margaret Ferrier, a British MP, has [attracted controversy](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54383281) for travelling from Glasgow to London with Covid-19 symptoms, then returning home by train after testing positive in late September 2020.\n\nHer party [has removed the party whip and suspended her](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54386872), and made it clear that she should resign as MP. But she has not yet resigned, [claiming that](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54496759) the illness \"makes you act out of character\"." }, { "id": 5409, "title": "Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?", "short_title": "UN Security Council Vetoes (2021)", "url_title": "UN Security Council Vetoes (2021)", "slug": "un-security-council-vetoes-2021", "author_id": 111805, "author_username": "galen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-11T10:54:25.713019Z", "published_at": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.859314Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:44:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5409, "title": "Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?", "created_at": "2020-10-11T10:54:25.713019Z", "open_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T19:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United Nations Charter of 1945 grants five sovereign states a permanent seat on the UN Security Council: the People's Republic of China (formerly the Republic of China), the French Republic, the Russian Federation (formerly the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. While the 'power of veto' is not mentioned by name in the UN Charter, Article 27 grants [each of the five permanent member states the ability to veto any 'substantive' resolution](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art27.shtml).\n\nSince the first veto in 1946, the use of the veto power has reflected shifting political balances. Early in the history of the UN, the majority of vetoes were cast by the Soviet Union. From 1970 to 1991, the US cast 56% of the vetoes. In recent years, this balance has once again shifted: China has not cast a lone veto vote since 1999, and has frequently joined Russia in vetoes since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Neither France nor the UK has used their veto power since 1989.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves according to the total number of vetoed resolutions recorded on the [research.un.org website](https://research.un.org/en/docs/sc/quick/meetings/) on 1 January 2022.\n\nThis question concerns the **number of unique resolutions vetoed**, not the number of veto votes cast. For example, the draft resolution '[S/2019/961](https://undocs.org/en/S/2019/961)' was vetoed by [both Russia and China](https://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8697), but would contribute only one to the 2019 tally.", "fine_print": "In the event that the official UN website is not active at the time of resolution, this question resolves ambiguously.", "post_id": 5409, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609418893.109416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609418893.109416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.45399298069576677 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059941961527627124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9929473008958882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.349999909761404, 0.0, 1.399892862493966, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6139448383506039, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.92013967893912, "coverage": 0.9984048517167041, "baseline_score": 35.00457919326269, "spot_peer_score": 7.04441187178705, "peer_archived_score": 8.92013967893912, "baseline_archived_score": 35.00457919326269, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.04441187178705 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609418893.161741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609418893.161741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7245729028736356, 0.27542709712636443 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United Nations Charter of 1945 grants five sovereign states a permanent seat on the UN Security Council: the People's Republic of China (formerly the Republic of China), the French Republic, the Russian Federation (formerly the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. While the 'power of veto' is not mentioned by name in the UN Charter, Article 27 grants [each of the five permanent member states the ability to veto any 'substantive' resolution](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art27.shtml).\n\nSince the first veto in 1946, the use of the veto power has reflected shifting political balances. Early in the history of the UN, the majority of vetoes were cast by the Soviet Union. From 1970 to 1991, the US cast 56% of the vetoes. In recent years, this balance has once again shifted: China has not cast a lone veto vote since 1999, and has frequently joined Russia in vetoes since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Neither France nor the UK has used their veto power since 1989." } ] }