Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=520
{ "count": 6280, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=540", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=500", "results": [ { "id": 39215, "title": "Is approval granted in the 2025 public vote regarding Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant’s second unit?", "short_title": "Is approval granted in the 2025 public vote regarding Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant’s second unit?", "url_title": "Is approval granted in the 2025 public vote regarding Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant’s second unit?", "slug": "is-approval-granted-in-the-2025-public-vote-regarding-maanshan-nuclear-power-plants-second-unit", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:41.654355Z", "published_at": "2025-08-20T05:24:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.393568Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:42.070099Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T06:54:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T06:54:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:53Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T05:24:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38557, "title": "Is approval granted in the 2025 public vote regarding Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant’s second unit?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:41.654765Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T05:24:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-20T06:54:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-20T06:54:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:53Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:59.063000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T06:54:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T06:54:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"7b03ad90-251b-4ff7-b6ca-2ab41a91b1a4\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "On August 23, 2025, a public ballot is scheduled in Taiwan to determine whether the second reactor at the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant will continue operating. The outcome will be considered affirmative if the proposal is accepted by voters and the minimum participation requirement is satisfied. Should either the measure fail to pass or the turnout threshold not be achieved, the response will be negative.\n\nIf the referendum is called off indefinitely or does not occur before January 1, 2026 (Eastern Time), the answer will also be negative. Official statements from Taiwan’s government will serve as the primary reference for determining the result, though corroborated reports from reputable news organizations may be consulted if necessary.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39215, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755671998.337782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755671998.337782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.44292553191489376 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 24.955506854472528, "peer_score": 12.105342007221713, "coverage": 0.959064733143206, "relative_legacy_score": 0.02394018452396803, "weighted_coverage": 0.959064733143206, "spot_peer_score": 12.374351647225808, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 24.955506854472528, "peer_archived_score": 12.105342007221713, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.02394018452396803, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.374351647225808, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"7b03ad90-251b-4ff7-b6ca-2ab41a91b1a4\"}}`" }, { "id": 39214, "title": "Will Eintracht Frankfurt secure a victory in their Bundesliga fixture on August 23, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Eintracht Frankfurt secure a victory in their Bundesliga fixture on August 23, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Eintracht Frankfurt secure a victory in their Bundesliga fixture on August 23, 2025?", "slug": "will-eintracht-frankfurt-secure-a-victory-in-their-bundesliga-fixture-on-august-23-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:41.102082Z", "published_at": "2025-08-23T10:47:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.044380Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:41.373469Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-23T12:17:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-23T12:17:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:52Z", "open_time": "2025-08-23T10:47:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38556, "title": "Will Eintracht Frankfurt secure a victory in their Bundesliga fixture on August 23, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:41.102546Z", "open_time": "2025-08-23T10:47:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-23T12:17:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-23T12:17:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:52Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:59.976178Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-23T12:17:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-23T12:17:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"3b755301-0fde-48ab-adf6-9c419ea7c7e7\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question concerns the Bundesliga contest featuring Eintracht Frankfurt, set to commence at 9:30AM Eastern Time on August 23, 2025. The determination hinges exclusively on the result achieved by Eintracht Frankfurt during the standard 90 minutes of play, including any additional stoppage time, but excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Should Eintracht Frankfurt emerge as the winner at the conclusion of this period, the answer will be 'Yes'. Conversely, if they are defeated, the answer will be 'No'. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the fixture is played. If the match is ultimately abandoned and not rescheduled, the answer will be 'No'. All outcomes are based solely on the official result at the end of regular time plus stoppage time.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39214, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755950414.078602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755950414.078602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5409803921568628 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 7.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.497334844069783, "peer_score": 8.328130000053193, "coverage": 0.9671477466600913, "relative_legacy_score": 0.005947818064067672, "weighted_coverage": 0.9671477466600913, "spot_peer_score": 8.858920709993303, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 12.497334844069783, "peer_archived_score": 8.328130000053193, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.005947818064067672, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.858920709993303, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"3b755301-0fde-48ab-adf6-9c419ea7c7e7\"}}`" }, { "id": 39213, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?", "short_title": "Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?", "url_title": "Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?", "slug": "will-ukrainian-forces-secure-control-of-the-specified-crossroads-near-vilne-and-kucheriv-yar-by-august-22-2025-as-indicated-by-isw-mapping-or-equivalent-criteria", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:40.105570Z", "published_at": "2025-08-22T05:12:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.714289Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:40.670738Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-22T06:42:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-22T06:42:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:53Z", "open_time": "2025-08-22T05:12:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38555, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:40.105965Z", "open_time": "2025-08-22T05:12:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-22T06:42:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-22T06:42:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:53Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:11:00.916667Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-22T06:42:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-22T06:42:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"363f175f-66f7-4609-903a-b2196211c889\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "For this question, a positive outcome will be determined if, on or before August 22, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, either of the two designated junctions—one in Vilne and one in Kucheriv Yar—are shown as at least partially under Ukrainian control on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) Specifically, the relevant intersections must display any blue shading that denotes either 'Claimed Ukrainian Counter Offensive' or 'Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours' as of the deadline. If neither intersection is marked in this manner by the cutoff, the answer will be negative.\n\nShould Ukrainian forces assume actual control of these locations through a mutually agreed settlement, this will also satisfy the criteria for a positive result, even if the ISW map does not reflect the change. However, mere announcements of a settlement or agreements that only grant Ukraine legal (de jure) authority, without physical control, will not suffice. Only established, on-the-ground control is relevant.\n\nOnce either intersection is confirmed as under Ukrainian control according to the above standards, any subsequent loss of the area will not affect the outcome.\n\nReference images for the precise locations are available here:\n- Vilne intersection: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vilne+intersection.png\n- Kucheriv Yar intersection: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+intersection.png\n- Combined/zoomed view: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne+zoom.jpeg\n- General area: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne.jpeg\n\nGoogle Maps references:\n- Vilne: https://maps.app.goo.gl/mQJabFjS1M5cWNyt5\n- Kucheriv Yar: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FeV7XeKUnqdXMGfx7\n\nThe ISW Ukraine map is the primary verification tool. If it becomes inaccessible, DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) will serve as a backup. Should both sources be permanently unavailable, a consensus from reputable news outlets will be used. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"9baaafd6-4288-4022-b0cc-26d63d2754b1\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "A 'Yes' outcome will be determined if, on or before August 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants either standard or conditional marketing authorization to Donidalorsen—developed by Ionis Pharmaceuticals and Theratechnologies Inc.—for use as a preventive therapy against hereditary angioedema attacks in patients who are at least 12 years old. Any other scenario will result in a 'No' outcome.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, qualifying FDA authorizations include: (1) issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) for new products; (2) approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for new indications of already marketed therapies; (3) approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for generics; or (4) approval of a 351(k) application for biosimilars. Both traditional (full) and accelerated approvals, as well as those with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) requirements or with restrictions on distribution or indication, are considered valid. Approvals limited to compassionate use, expanded access, export-only, or emergency use (EUA) are not sufficient. Tentative approvals, requests for further data, or Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date extensions do not qualify. Complete Response Letters (CRLs) or explicit non-approvals from the FDA will trigger an immediate 'No' outcome. Should the application be withdrawn by the sponsor before the deadline, the answer will also be 'No' at that time.\n\nIf the FDA grants the relevant approval before the specified cutoff, the answer will be 'Yes' even if subsequent advisory committee recommendations are negative or if the approval is later rescinded. Conditional approvals that include post-marketing requirements or commitments are acceptable for a 'Yes' result. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"f5419acf-af99-4e24-9d05-534b3f4a6017\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Determination of this question hinges on whether Maxime Vachier-Lagrave is officially recognized as the overall winner of the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess competition. Should he be declared the champion, the answer will be \"Yes\"; in all other circumstances, including if another participant claims victory, the response will be \"No\".\n\nIf the tournament is called off or fails to reach completion by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on October 1, 2025, the answer will default to \"No\". The primary reference for establishing the outcome will be the official communications from the event’s organizing body. In the absence of clear official confirmation, widely accepted reports from reputable sources may be consulted to reach a consensus. All aspects of this question pertain exclusively to the 2025 edition of the Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39211, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755777376.357302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.060000000000000005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755777376.357302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.060000000000000005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05877083333333332 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 34.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"f5419acf-af99-4e24-9d05-534b3f4a6017\"}}`" }, { "id": 39210, "title": "Will \"Americana\" receive a Tomatometer rating from Rotten Tomatoes within the 85% to 89% range as of August 25, 2025, 10:00AM ET?", "short_title": "Will \"Americana\" receive a Tomatometer rating from Rotten Tomatoes within the 85% to 89% range as of August 25, 2025, 10:00AM ET?", "url_title": "Will \"Americana\" receive a Tomatometer rating from Rotten Tomatoes within the 85% to 89% range as of August 25, 2025, 10:00AM ET?", "slug": "will-americana-receive-a-tomatometer-rating-from-rotten-tomatoes-within-the-85-to-89-range-as-of-august-25-2025-1000am-et", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:37.605628Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T20:24:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.008311Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:37.947990Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T21:54:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T21:54:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-27T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:52Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T20:24:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38552, "title": "Will \"Americana\" receive a Tomatometer rating from Rotten Tomatoes within the 85% to 89% range as of August 25, 2025, 10:00AM ET?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:37.606054Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T20:24:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-19T21:54:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-19T21:54:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-27T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:52Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:11:18.761268Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T21:54:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T21:54:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"fe5e74e2-28a7-4026-8b69-b4f83dca1a2d\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Assessment for this question hinges on the \"All Critics\" Tomatometer percentage assigned to the film \"Americana\" (2025) by Rotten Tomatoes, specifically as it appears at 10:00AM Eastern Time on August 25, 2025. The relevant figure is the one displayed at that precise moment. Should the score be positioned at the boundary between two defined intervals, the upper interval will be used for determination. In the event that the necessary information is not accessible at the scheduled evaluation time, the source will be revisited in six-hour increments until the required data becomes available. All other aspects, including the cutoff for consideration, remain fixed at August 25, 2025 (UTC).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39210, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755639280.788654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755639280.788654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11089999999999996 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 6.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.80944204694181, "peer_score": 2.361313850424048, "coverage": 0.9540522189052018, "relative_legacy_score": -0.058979552432188595, "weighted_coverage": 0.9540522189052018, "spot_peer_score": 2.090577774350622, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 80.80944204694181, "peer_archived_score": 2.361313850424048, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.058979552432188595, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.090577774350622, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"42ddf47b-891d-4869-921d-d9a33d33e8cb\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "A determination of 'Yes' will be made if, on or before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on Friday, August 22, 2025, Drake is verified to have provided a financial donation to the Team Water initiative led by MrBeast. Verification will primarily rely on disclosures from teamwater.org, but may also incorporate direct statements from Drake or MrBeast, as well as corroboration from reputable news organizations. If no such donation is substantiated by the specified deadline, the answer will be 'No'. The underlying campaign aims to secure $40 million to supply long-term clean water access to two million individuals.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39209, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755966725.84313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755966725.84313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04762745098039214 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 25.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"4fcb6ccf-8cb8-4590-bf7f-f07278ff38c7\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question pertains to the Bundesliga fixture featuring Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart, set to commence at 9:30AM ET on August 23. The outcome will be determined as follows: Should the contest finish with both sides having the same number of goals at the final whistle, the answer will be 'Yes'. If either team secures a victory, the answer will be 'No'. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the fixture is played. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"e65edc13-62e9-4c3a-b5eb-43cf9e4c741d\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question concerns the result of the BUN fixture featuring FSV Mainz 05, set to commence at 9:30AM Eastern Time on August 24, 2025. The determination hinges exclusively on the score at the conclusion of the standard 90 minutes of play, including any added stoppage time. Should FSV Mainz 05 be ahead at this point, the answer will be 'Yes'. If they are not leading, the answer will be 'No'. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the fixture is played. If the contest is called off and not rescheduled, the answer will be 'No'. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"d2a735b1-e0f2-4adc-9e5a-079bdd40037e\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "To determine the outcome of this question, the \"All Critics\" Tomatometer percentage for the film \"Americana\" (2025) will be referenced as it appears on Rotten Tomatoes at precisely 10:00AM Eastern Time on August 25, 2025. Should the score at that moment fall within the inclusive range of 80% to 84%, this will be considered a positive result for this question. In the event that the score is positioned at the boundary between two defined intervals, the higher interval will be used for classification. If the necessary information is not accessible at the scheduled assessment time, the relevant page will be revisited at six-hour intervals until the required data becomes available. The evaluation will not consider any updates or changes to the score after the specified date and time. All criteria and timing are fixed as described.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39205, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755508826.858878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755508826.858878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19038043478260872 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 72.51151499586209, "peer_score": 7.621935265097568, "coverage": 0.9499736136860317, "relative_legacy_score": -0.00048005300985741304, "weighted_coverage": 0.9499736136860317, "spot_peer_score": 7.601732785194925, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 72.51151499586209, "peer_archived_score": 7.621935265097568, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.00048005300985741304, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.601732785194925, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"d2a735b1-e0f2-4adc-9e5a-079bdd40037e\"}}`" }, { "id": 39204, "title": "Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?", "short_title": "Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?", "url_title": "Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?", "slug": "will-taiwan-vote-to-restart-the-maanshan-nuclear-power-plant", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:32.673864Z", "published_at": "2025-08-20T00:08:07Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.101404Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:33.065650Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T01:38:07Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T01:38:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-27T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:52Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T00:08:07Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38546, "title": "Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:32.674316Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T00:08:07Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-20T01:38:07Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-20T01:38:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-27T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:52Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:11:24.223558Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T01:38:07Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T01:38:07Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"7be850f2-7bae-427e-b91a-a5eb4262c410\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the 2025 referendum to reactivate the Maanshan/Third Nuclear Power Plant passes.\nFineprint: If the referendum is postponed to after September 1, 2025, or if the results are not available before September 1, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nThe primary source for resolution will be the [Central Election Commission](https://web.cec.gov.tw/english).\nDescription: Taiwan [used nuclear power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan) as part of its domestic mix of energy production beginning in the 1970s and ending in May 2025. Nuclear power peaked in the 1980s, when it made up [slightly over half](https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3413) of Taiwan's electricity generation. Since then nuclear power production has gradually waned in favor of coal and later natural gas.\n\nHowever after the 2011 [Fukushima nuclear accident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_nuclear_accident) in Japan, anti-nuclear voices in Taiwan grew louder. In 2016 Taiwanese voters elected the Democratic Progressive Party to government on a platform that included [phasing out nuclear power by 2025](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Taiwanese-vote-to-keep-nuclear-in-energy-mix). \n\nOnce elected, the DPP followed through on this promise by enshrining the phase-out into law. but in a [2018 referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Taiwanese_referendum) Taiwanese voters voted to repeal this law, with 54.83% of the electorate participating in the referendum and 59.49% of those voting in favor of the repeal. Nevertheless, the DPP-led government continued its policy of phasing out nuclear power, and as a result Taiwan's six nuclear power units (two in each of three power plants) were [gradually closed down](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/reactor-closure-marks-taiwans-nuclear-exit) between 2018 and 2025.\n\nIn early 2025, the Taiwan People's Party, with support of the Kuomintang, [put forward a referendum](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/04/19/2003835455) to reactivate the [Maanshan nuclear power plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maanshan_Nuclear_Power_Plant) provided that it passes safety inspections. The legislature approved the referendum, which is scheduled to be held on August 23, 2025. The [referendum question](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Taiwanese_referendum) will be\n\n> Do you agree that the Third Nuclear Power Plant should continue operating, provided that the competent authority confirms there are no safety concerns?\n\nNote that under [Taiwanese law](https://law.moj.gov.tw/ENG/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=D0020050) for a referendum to pass the total number of yes votes must constitute at least one-fourth the total number of eligible voters.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39204, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755653767.244737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755653767.244737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5151063829787234 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"7be850f2-7bae-427e-b91a-a5eb4262c410\"}}`" }, { "id": 39203, "title": "Will a 50% import duty on goods from India to the U.S. be operational at any point before August 27, 2025?", "short_title": "Will a 50% import duty on goods from India to the U.S. be operational at any point before August 27, 2025?", "url_title": "Will a 50% import duty on goods from India to the U.S. be operational at any point before August 27, 2025?", "slug": "will-a-50-import-duty-on-goods-from-india-to-the-us-be-operational-at-any-point-before-august-27-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:31.933942Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T07:46:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.983636Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:32.347130Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:16:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:16:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:50Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T07:46:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38545, "title": "Will a 50% import duty on goods from India to the U.S. be operational at any point before August 27, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:31.934394Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T07:46:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-18T09:16:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-18T09:16:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:50Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:11:25.194400Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:16:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:16:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"78182186-a215-4860-89f2-6e0b1497442f\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "A 'Yes' outcome will be determined if, at any time on or before August 27, 2025, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, a broad-based 50% tariff is implemented on products entering the United States from India. The tariff must be in force—meaning its official commencement date has arrived and it has not been postponed or put on hold. The measure may allow for certain product-level exemptions, provided the overarching policy applies a 50% rate to imports from India. Only tariffs that are specifically directed at Indian imports will be considered; policies applying universally to all countries' imports are not relevant for this question. The principal reference for verification will be formal announcements or documentation from the Trump administration, though corroboration from multiple reputable sources may also be used if necessary.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39203, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755506429.28654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755506429.28654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.7794021739130433 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.96628633593149, "peer_score": 35.4561918658424, "coverage": 0.9594453051796666, "relative_legacy_score": 0.06527771275466021, "weighted_coverage": 0.9594453051796666, "spot_peer_score": 44.72165193671662, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 81.96628633593149, "peer_archived_score": 35.4561918658424, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.06527771275466021, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.72165193671662, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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FC Köln on August 24 conclude with both teams having identical scores?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:31.195475Z", "open_time": "2025-08-23T02:05:06Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-23T03:35:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-23T03:35:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-26T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:53Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:11:30.900338Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-23T03:35:06Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-23T03:35:06Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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If the event is called off and not rescheduled, the answer will default to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39202, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755919603.08932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755919603.08932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3583333333333335 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 12.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 39.73122415318461, "peer_score": 14.55597460711126, "coverage": 0.8380607637211128, "relative_legacy_score": 0.025008355004868445, "weighted_coverage": 0.8380607637211128, "spot_peer_score": 22.611552851903234, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 39.73122415318461, "peer_archived_score": 14.55597460711126, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.025008355004868445, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.611552851903234, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"63b05e86-bc68-42e1-b603-748c6c3a5546\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question concerns the result of the Bundesliga fixture featuring SC Freiburg, set to commence at 9:30AM Eastern Time on August 23, 2025. The determination will be based solely on the score at the conclusion of the standard 90 minutes of play, including any added stoppage time. Should SC Freiburg be ahead at this point, the answer will be 'Yes'. If they are not leading, the answer will be 'No'. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the contest is played. If the fixture is ultimately abandoned and not rescheduled, the answer will be 'No'. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"b44536fa-bec7-4e47-acbf-d4639d1fd955\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "A determination will be made based on whether Kai Cenat (see: https://www.youtube.com/c/KaiCenat) is documented as having provided a financial donation to the Team Water initiative, which is associated with MrBeast, on or before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on Friday, August 22, 2025. Verification will primarily rely on the official teamwater.org platform, but may also incorporate statements from MrBeast, Kai Cenat, or a consensus among reputable news sources. Should such a donation be confirmed within the specified timeframe, the answer will be 'Yes'; if not, the answer will be 'No'. 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If the event is called off and not rescheduled, the answer will default to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39199, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755905128.377736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.30000000000000004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755905128.377736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.30000000000000004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.3144901960784314 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 12.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.0, 2.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 49.76907488863541, "peer_score": 10.553596538201665, "coverage": 0.9452182735337151, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0021800098919473637, "weighted_coverage": 0.9452182735337151, "spot_peer_score": 12.697480449765905, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 49.76907488863541, "peer_archived_score": 10.553596538201665, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0021800098919473637, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.697480449765905, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"24ec0e88-0bcb-4a7b-aabf-3bc671c5ec90\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that the March 23 Movement rebels have withdrawn from Goma and the Democratic Republic of the Congo is in control of the city on August 25, 2025.\nFineprint: If there is any ambiguity, this question will resolve based upon control of Goma International Airport, specifically the coordinates of -1.6584, 29.2400 at 00:00 UTC on August 25, 2025.\nDescription: As of mid-June 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda were in active conflict. The conflict stretches back to the [Rwandan genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide) of 1994, when over a million [Hutus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutu) fled from Rwanda to eastern DRC, including perpetrators of the genocide who continued cross-border attacks. Since then, Rwanda has [repeatedly intervened](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_conflict) militarily in eastern DRC, ostensibly to pursue genocidal forces but also to exploit the region's vast mineral wealth. The strategic city of [Goma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goma), capital of North Kivu province, has been a focal point of these conflicts. Rwanda has consistently backed various rebel groups, most notably the [March 23 Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_23_Movement) (M23), which claims to represent Tutsi interests but operates with significant Rwandan military support and has generated substantial revenue through [illegal mineral exports](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/congo-rebel-gains-boost-illicit-mineral-trade-through-rwanda-analysts-say-2025-01-28/) via Rwanda.\n\nThe conflict [further escalated](https://www.dw.com/en/congo-violence-m23-raw-materials/a-71417304) in 2025, with M23 rebels [capturing Goma](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/risk-of-regional-conflict-following-fall-of-goma-and-m23-offensive-in-the-drc/) in late January, [displacing over 178,000 people](https://apnews.com/article/congo-rebels-m23-displaced-conflict-bdd3579ee7852722a2dbc5aa37c75d62), with M23 also capturing the key supply town of [Minova](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minova) in South Kivu. Rwanda has never admitted that it funded M23, but on June 19, 2025, [reached a peace agreement](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr795jjrnnlo) with DRC, mediated by the US and Qatar. No details of the peace deal, that is expected to be formally signed before the end of June, were reported in the initial announcement.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39198, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755888735.285913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755888735.285913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1743 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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It's ticker is CPB. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:28) is 32.51. You can find more information about The Campbell's Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CPB\n\nThe Campbell's Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Meals & Beverages and Snacks segments. The Meals & Beverages segment engages in the retail and foodservice businesses in the United States and Canada. This segment provides Campbell's condensed and ready-to-serve soups; Swanson broth and stocks; Pacific Foods broth, soups, and non-dairy beverages; Prego pasta sauces; Pace Mexican sauces; Campbell's gravies, pasta, beans, and dinner sauces; Swanson canned poultry; V8 juices and beverages; Campbell's tomato juice; Rao's pasta sauces, dry pasta, frozen entrées, frozen pizza and soups; Michael Angelo's frozen entrées and pasta sauces; and noosa yogurts, as well as snacking products in foodservice in Canada. The Snacks segment retails Pepperidge Farm cookies, crackers, fresh bakery, and frozen products, that includes Goldfish crackers, Snyder's of Hanover pretzels, Lance sandwich crackers, Cape Cod and Kettle Brand potato chips, Late July snacks, Snack Factory pretzel crisps, and other snacking products. This segment is also involved in the retail business in Latin America. It sells its products through retail food chains, mass discounters and merchandisers, club stores, convenience stores, drug stores, and dollar stores, as well as e-commerce and other retail, commercial, and non-commercial establishments, and independent contractor distributors. The company was formerly known as Campbell Soup Company and changed its name to The Campbell's Company in November 2024. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Camden, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CPB\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CPB. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-18, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39197, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755496913.869631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755496913.869631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.48633333333333323 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -0.013359123292475884, "peer_score": -1.8200722228832968, "coverage": 0.9533335231410133, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0007104796002658575, "weighted_coverage": 0.9533335231410133, "spot_peer_score": -1.707862588998935, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -0.013359123292475884, "peer_archived_score": -1.8200722228832968, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0007104796002658575, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.707862588998935, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Campbell's Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CPB. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:28) is 32.51. You can find more information about The Campbell's Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CPB\n\nThe Campbell's Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Meals & Beverages and Snacks segments. The Meals & Beverages segment engages in the retail and foodservice businesses in the United States and Canada. This segment provides Campbell's condensed and ready-to-serve soups; Swanson broth and stocks; Pacific Foods broth, soups, and non-dairy beverages; Prego pasta sauces; Pace Mexican sauces; Campbell's gravies, pasta, beans, and dinner sauces; Swanson canned poultry; V8 juices and beverages; Campbell's tomato juice; Rao's pasta sauces, dry pasta, frozen entrées, frozen pizza and soups; Michael Angelo's frozen entrées and pasta sauces; and noosa yogurts, as well as snacking products in foodservice in Canada. The Snacks segment retails Pepperidge Farm cookies, crackers, fresh bakery, and frozen products, that includes Goldfish crackers, Snyder's of Hanover pretzels, Lance sandwich crackers, Cape Cod and Kettle Brand potato chips, Late July snacks, Snack Factory pretzel crisps, and other snacking products. This segment is also involved in the retail business in Latin America. It sells its products through retail food chains, mass discounters and merchandisers, club stores, convenience stores, drug stores, and dollar stores, as well as e-commerce and other retail, commercial, and non-commercial establishments, and independent contractor distributors. The company was formerly known as Campbell Soup Company and changed its name to The Campbell's Company in November 2024. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Camden, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CPB\"}}`" }, { "id": 39196, "title": "Will YUM's market close price on 2025-08-25 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-18?", "short_title": "YUM's close price rises?", "url_title": "YUM's close price rises?", "slug": "yums-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:25.950845Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T07:37:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.560167Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:26.381059Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:07:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:07:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T20:35:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:33Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T07:37:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38538, "title": "Will YUM's market close price on 2025-08-25 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-18?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:25.951267Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T07:37:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-18T09:07:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-18T09:07:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T20:35:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:33Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:11:34.101658Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:07:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:07:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Yum! Brands, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is YUM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:26) is 148.18. You can find more information about Yum! Brands, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/YUM\n\nYum! Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises quick service restaurants worldwide. It operates through four segments: KFC Division, Taco Bell Division, Pizza Hut Division, and Habit Burger & Grill Division segments. The company also operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and Habit Burger & Grill brands, which specialize in chicken, made-to-order chargrilled burgers, sandwiches, Mexican-style food and pizza categories, and other products. The company was formerly known as TRICON Global Restaurants, Inc. and changed its name to Yum! Brands, Inc. in May 2002. Yum! Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"YUM\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of YUM. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-18, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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Brands, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is YUM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:26) is 148.18. You can find more information about Yum! Brands, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/YUM\n\nYum! Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises quick service restaurants worldwide. It operates through four segments: KFC Division, Taco Bell Division, Pizza Hut Division, and Habit Burger & Grill Division segments. The company also operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and Habit Burger & Grill brands, which specialize in chicken, made-to-order chargrilled burgers, sandwiches, Mexican-style food and pizza categories, and other products. The company was formerly known as TRICON Global Restaurants, Inc. and changed its name to Yum! Brands, Inc. in May 2002. Yum! Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"YUM\"}}`" } ] }
