Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=520
{ "count": 5525, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=540", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=500", "results": [ { "id": 35924, "title": "Will ChatGPT rank in the top 10 global websites according to Semrush on April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chatgpt-rank-in-the-top-10-global-websites-according-to-semrush-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.645297Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:21.195067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35358, "title": "Will ChatGPT rank in the top 10 global websites according to Semrush on April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.645297Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T01:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-03T01:23:51.022142Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the resolution source, \" In January chatgpt.com received 4.67B visits with the average session duration 08:24. Compared to December traffic to chatgpt.com has decreased by -2.41%.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if ChatGPT has a Global Rank: Worldwide of ≤10 at [Semrush](https://www.semrush.com/website/chatgpt.com/overview/) (in the top 10, in other words) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to what rank is displayed at the resolution date, regardless of when the traffic stats are from.", "post_id": 35924, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741834725.050138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741834725.050138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7114437532642304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2240085184861953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.3190127781780022, 0.9105903213533636, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 3.063066562257688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9541308193971554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13420630889482474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 72.48265623830196, "peer_score": 19.32604841239834, "coverage": 0.9756035802761711, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9756035802761711, "spot_peer_score": 22.675197250323556, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 72.48265623830196, "peer_archived_score": 19.32604841239834, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.675197250323556, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the resolution source, \" In January chatgpt.com received 4.67B visits with the average session duration 08:24. Compared to December traffic to chatgpt.com has decreased by -2.41%.\"" }, { "id": 35923, "title": "Will the Deftones release a new album before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-deftones-release-a-new-album-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.612792Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:23.816414Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35357, "title": "Will the Deftones release a new album before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.612792Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T23:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T23:24:39.616540Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Chino Moreno: Deftones “Getting Very Close” to Releasing New Music](https://consequence.net/2025/02/deftones-new-album-very-close-2025-update/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Deftones release a new album after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025, according to their [discography at genius.com](https://genius.com/artists/Deftones/albums)", "fine_print": "Question may resolve based on other credible sources should there be reason to believe the resolution source is not being timely updated.", "post_id": 35923, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741834741.261991, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.095 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741834741.261991, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.095 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23381897941930482 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9371536042477027, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 1.3935310707277817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31489077680617433, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0751680600754505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 1.2830705323376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5700102153501857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.7249637419928, "peer_score": 1.1208079013755914, "coverage": 0.9772703486018712, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9772703486018712, "spot_peer_score": 3.393992552400687, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 73.7249637419928, "peer_archived_score": 1.1208079013755914, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.393992552400687, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Chino Moreno: Deftones “Getting Very Close” to Releasing New Music](https://consequence.net/2025/02/deftones-new-album-very-close-2025-update/)" }, { "id": 35922, "title": "Will Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have a higher approval rating than Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-have-a-higher-approval-rating-than-turkeys-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.447182Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:29.022101Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35356, "title": "Will Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have a higher approval rating than Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.447182Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T02:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T02:03:30.027972Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Resolution source updates monthly. According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. Ratings reflect a trailing seven-day simple moving average of views among adults in each country surveyed.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Pedro Sánchez has a higher approval rating than Recep Tayyip Erdoğan according to [Morning Consult](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/global-leader-approval) when checked by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. 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According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. 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According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. Ratings reflect a trailing seven-day simple moving average of views among adults in each country surveyed.\"" }, { "id": 35920, "title": "Will the United States impose any new tariffs on India before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-united-states-impose-any-new-tariffs-on-india-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.378281Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:12.567492Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35354, "title": "Will the United States impose any new tariffs on India before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.378281Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T11:19:51.271241Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters: [All of Donald Trump's tariff threats](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/all-donald-trumps-tariff-threats-2025-01-28/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US government officially announces the implementation of any new tariff on imports from India after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025. Otherwise resolves as No.", "fine_print": "Please note that a mere intention to impose a tariff will not count. If a tariff is announced but does not go into effect, [such as happened](https://www.globaltradeandsanctionslaw.com/trump-2-0-u-s-tariffs-on-china-take-effect-mexico-and-canada-granted-30-day-pause/) with Mexico and Canada, it will not count. 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Quarter of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.305999Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T02:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T02:11:19.052117Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CNBC: [China wants to 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"2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T22:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T23:24:12.315742Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NY Times: [Over 230,000 Sign Petition Calling for Musk’s Canadian Citizenship to Be Revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/us/politics/elon-musk-canada-citizenship.html) \"It is unclear whether Mr. Musk has had any involvement in Mr. Trump's approach to relations with Canada, though his posts on social media have repeatedly made jabs at the country’s sovereignty. Mr. Musk, who was born in South Africa, holds Canadian citizenship through his mother, according to Walter Isaacson’s biography of the businessman. Mr. Musk also holds U.S. citizenship, which he received in 2002, according to the biography.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Canada's government officially revokes Elon Musk's citizenship before April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35910, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741816174.822602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741816174.822602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.030872623545887302 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43159266452876244, 3.8216984636022877, 1.0324753569746579, 0.6195764615073515, 0.6896218051583209, 2.736425552192485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.118705174182, "peer_score": 1.7303549511982173, "coverage": 0.9939675833119286, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9939675833119286, "spot_peer_score": 1.9905998413253654, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 96.118705174182, "peer_archived_score": 1.7303549511982173, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.9905998413253654, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NY Times: [Over 230,000 Sign Petition Calling for Musk’s Canadian Citizenship to Be Revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/us/politics/elon-musk-canada-citizenship.html) \"It is unclear whether Mr. Musk has had any involvement in Mr. Trump's approach to relations with Canada, though his posts on social media have repeatedly made jabs at the country’s sovereignty. Mr. Musk, who was born in South Africa, holds Canadian citizenship through his mother, according to Walter Isaacson’s biography of the businessman. Mr. Musk also holds U.S. citizenship, which he received in 2002, according to the biography.\"" }, { "id": 35907, "title": "Will Jumaane Williams run for mayor of New York City?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jumaane-williams-run-for-mayor-of-new-york-city", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.135737Z", "published_at": "2025-03-11T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:03.153682Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-11T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35341, "title": "Will Jumaane Williams run for mayor of New York City?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.135737Z", "open_time": "2025-03-11T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T21:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T21:51:06.176392Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the NYT, \"Mr. Williams is a progressive leader from Brooklyn who has criticized the mayor’s aggressive policing strategy. He has pledged to rank Mr. Lander either first or second on his ballot.\n\nBut if Mr. Adams were to resign, Mr. Williams — who ran unsuccessfully for governor and lieutenant governor — would become acting mayor. He would then likely run for a full term.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Who’s Running for Mayor of New York City?](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/nyregion/nyc-mayor-candidates-2025.html) tracker page maintained by the New York Times is updated before April 1, 2025 to classify Jumaane Williams as running for mayor of New York City. If that tracker page does not have Cuomo listed as Running, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. Question resolves based on the value shown at the specific webpage listed. 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He has pledged to rank Mr. Lander either first or second on his ballot.\n\nBut if Mr. Adams were to resign, Mr. Williams — who ran unsuccessfully for governor and lieutenant governor — would become acting mayor. He would then likely run for a full term.\"" }, { "id": 35897, "title": "Will Javier Milei have a higher approval rating than Claudia Sheinbaum on March 30, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-javier-milei-have-a-higher-approval-rating-than-claudia-sheinbaum-on-march-30-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:10.226051Z", "published_at": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:19.840649Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35331, "title": "Will Javier Milei have a higher approval rating than Claudia Sheinbaum on March 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:10.226051Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T18:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-30T18:54:07.661577Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Sheinbaum is at 66% as compared with Milei at 65%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Javier Melei has a higher approval rating than Claudia Sheinbaum at [Morning Consult](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/global-leader-approval) when checked my Metaculus on or after March 30, 2025. A tie or a lead by Sheinbaum resolves the question as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35897, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741607893.138712, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741607893.138712, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.23610668269969792 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6441340422812852, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8190556409139295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31224601647824046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.224156646299226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1564829236529564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 1.906947004393443, 0.0, 0.0, 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"actual_close_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Figure skating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_skating) is a winter sport in which individuals, pairs, or groups perform on ice while incorporating jumps, spins, lifts, and footwork into choreographed routines set to music. The [World Figure Skating Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships), organised annually by the [International Skating Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Skating_Union) (ISU) since 1896, represents the most prestigious annual competition in the sport outside the Olympic Games. The [2025 World Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships) are scheduled to take place in Boston, from March 25 to March 30.\n\nIn all official competitions, athletes are scored using the [ISU Judging System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISU_Judging_System), which consists of two components: the Technical Score (TES) and the Program Components Score (PCS). The Technical Score assesses the difficulty and execution of specific elements (jumps, spins, and step sequences) with each element receiving a base value [ranging](https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/ISU%202656%20ISU_SOV_SinglesPairs_2024-25_final.pdf) from 0.40 to 14, which is then adjusted using a -5 to +5 grade based on the athlete's execution. The Program Components Score evaluates five aspects of the performance: skating skills, transitions, performance, composition, and interpretation of music, with judges awarding points on a scale of 0.25 to 10.00 in each category.\n\nThe TES and PCS are added together to form the Total Segment Score (TSS), which is calculated for both short programs and free skating and added together to determine an athlete's final ranking.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships, there is a new world record in any category (men's singles, women's singles, pairs, ice dance), for any segment, on any of the possible scores:\n\n* TES – Technical element score\n* PCS – Program component score\n* TSS – Total segment score\n* Combine Total TSS across segments.", "fine_print": "* If at least half of the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships events do not take place before April 7, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n* In case a performance setting a new record is announced, but has not been officially verified (in case of potential disputes), it will count for the purposes of this question if it has not been cancelled as of April 7, 2025.\n* The [current world records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest_scores_in_figure_skating) are presented below:\n\n| Category | Segment | Score type | Score |\n| --------------- | -------------- | ---------- | ------ |\n| Men's singles | Combined total | TSS | 335.30 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | TSS | 113.97 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | TES | 65.98 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | PCS | 48.47 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | TSS | 227.79 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | TES | 137.18 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | PCS | 97.22 |\n| Women's singles | Combined total | TSS | 272.71 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | TSS | 87.52 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | TES | 49.97 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | PCS | 37.56 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | TSS | 185.29 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | TES | 109.02 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | PCS | 76.27 |\n| Pairs | Combined total | TSS | 239.88 |\n| Pairs | Short program | TSS | 84.41 |\n| Pairs | Short program | TES | 46.04 |\n| Pairs | Short program | PCS | 38.45 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | TSS | 157.46 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | TES | 81.45 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | PCS | 76.99 |\n| Ice dance | Combined total | TSS | 232.32 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | TSS | 93.91 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | TES | 55.16 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | PCS | 39.57 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | TSS | 138.41 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | TES | 79.41 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | PCS | 59.70 |\n\n", "post_id": 35889, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741451517.687701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.495 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.635 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741451517.687701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.495 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.635 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.505, 0.495 ], "means": [ 0.44437743975517746 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3723319537601757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6159019440994773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09421835938530294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.201492446433726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 1.036074989500979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.2682456184822639, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2403570004362803, 0.9160279542388619, 0.3571884672884433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 5.552594877328654, "peer_score": -1.8447208455324746, "coverage": 0.9873423241906697, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9873423241906697, "spot_peer_score": -7.035217695489181, "spot_baseline_score": 1.4355292977070055, "baseline_archived_score": 5.552594877328654, "peer_archived_score": -1.8447208455324746, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.035217695489181, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 1.4355292977070055 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Figure skating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_skating) is a winter sport in which individuals, pairs, or groups perform on ice while incorporating jumps, spins, lifts, and footwork into choreographed routines set to music. The [World Figure Skating Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships), organised annually by the [International Skating Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Skating_Union) (ISU) since 1896, represents the most prestigious annual competition in the sport outside the Olympic Games. The [2025 World Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships) are scheduled to take place in Boston, from March 25 to March 30.\n\nIn all official competitions, athletes are scored using the [ISU Judging System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISU_Judging_System), which consists of two components: the Technical Score (TES) and the Program Components Score (PCS). The Technical Score assesses the difficulty and execution of specific elements (jumps, spins, and step sequences) with each element receiving a base value [ranging](https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/ISU%202656%20ISU_SOV_SinglesPairs_2024-25_final.pdf) from 0.40 to 14, which is then adjusted using a -5 to +5 grade based on the athlete's execution. The Program Components Score evaluates five aspects of the performance: skating skills, transitions, performance, composition, and interpretation of music, with judges awarding points on a scale of 0.25 to 10.00 in each category.\n\nThe TES and PCS are added together to form the Total Segment Score (TSS), which is calculated for both short programs and free skating and added together to determine an athlete's final ranking." }, { "id": 35782, "title": "If Metaculus launches NOSTRADAMUS-AI before April 10, 2025, will it achieve first place in the Metaculus Cup?", "short_title": "Is NOSTRADAMUS-AI an oracle?", "url_title": "Is NOSTRADAMUS-AI an oracle?", "slug": "is-nostradamus-ai-an-oracle", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-07T18:18:44.923874Z", "published_at": "2025-04-01T12:07:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:00.990902Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-01T12:07:52.493186Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-01T12:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35217, "title": "If Metaculus launches NOSTRADAMUS-AI before April 10, 2025, will it achieve first place in the Metaculus Cup?", "created_at": "2025-03-07T18:18:44.924356Z", "open_time": "2025-04-01T12:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-01T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T20:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T21:04:40.704215Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Informed by findings from our ongoing [AI Forecasting Benchmark Series](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/), Metaculus is excited to announce its new AI forecasting system, NOSTRADAMUS-AI (Numerous Outcomes Systematically Tracked & Recorded After Determining AI Mistakes Undermining Society). Internal testing has demonstrated that NOSTRADAMUS-AI is capable of producing forecasts that we are confident are prophetic, as the forecasts they produce are rich in metaphor and highly cryptic, two traits that we have identified as [prevalent among top forecasters](https://www.history.co.uk/articles/nostradamus-which-of-his-predictions-came-true).\n\nWhile most of the prophecies produced by NOSTRADAMUS-AI concern disasters in the distant future, we are very confident that its prophetic abilities will extend perfectly to predicting short-term questions like those found in Metaculus' [Quarterly Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/quarterly-cup/), which is being relaunched soon as the Metaculus Cup.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n* [When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/)\n* [When will the next total solar eclipse occur?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22068/next-total-solar-eclipse-on-earth/)", "resolution_criteria": "If Metaculus launches its new forecasting AI tool, NOSTRADAMUS-AI (Numerous Outcomes Systematically Tracked & Recorded After Determining AI Mistakes Undermining Society), before April 10, 2025, this question will resolve as **Yes** if NOSTRADAMUS-AI wins 1st place in the upcoming Metaculus Cup.\n\nIf Metaculus does not launch NOSTRADAMUS-AI before April 10, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "* All predictions made by NOSTRADAMUS-AI in the Metaculus Cup will count, including those not published in [*Les Prophéties*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Proph%C3%A9ties).\n* Please note, Metaculus' NOSTRADAMUS-AI is not to be confused with its forthcoming [NOSFERATU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ykxcdp6-2kE)-AI (Neural Omniscient System For Evaluating Risks And Tracking Undead).", "post_id": 35782, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744153918.114196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.049 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744153918.114196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.049 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.951, 0.049 ], "means": [ 0.07491142554673563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.21013508678301107, 0.028664445367929763, 2.2314771222777794, 1.425826206530239, 1.3662040475181731, 2.956256932117105, 0.0, 0.7482055507411614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8419509799732325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2402124549853717 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Informed by findings from our ongoing [AI Forecasting Benchmark Series](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/), Metaculus is excited to announce its new AI forecasting system, NOSTRADAMUS-AI (Numerous Outcomes Systematically Tracked & Recorded After Determining AI Mistakes Undermining Society). Internal testing has demonstrated that NOSTRADAMUS-AI is capable of producing forecasts that we are confident are prophetic, as the forecasts they produce are rich in metaphor and highly cryptic, two traits that we have identified as [prevalent among top forecasters](https://www.history.co.uk/articles/nostradamus-which-of-his-predictions-came-true).\n\nWhile most of the prophecies produced by NOSTRADAMUS-AI concern disasters in the distant future, we are very confident that its prophetic abilities will extend perfectly to predicting short-term questions like those found in Metaculus' [Quarterly Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/quarterly-cup/), which is being relaunched soon as the Metaculus Cup.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n* [When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/)\n* [When will the next total solar eclipse occur?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22068/next-total-solar-eclipse-on-earth/)" }, { "id": 35780, "title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "url_title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "slug": "will-pepfar-funding-be-resumed-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-07T15:58:30.160144Z", "published_at": "2025-03-08T23:31:47.229946Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:47.353503Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-08T23:31:47.229944Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35215, "title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-07T15:58:30.160585Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T00:40:32.013780Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "PEPFAR, the President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief, is a United States governmental initiative to address the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Launched by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003, [as of April 2024](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) PEPFAR had provided about \\$120 billion in cumulative funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and research since its inception, making it the largest global health program focused on a single disease in history until the COVID-19 pandemic. PEPFAR [has saved](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) over 26 million lives, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n\nAfter a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation.\n\nAccording to [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) on March 4, 2025: \n\n> \\[A]s of this writing, despite a [court order](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69628254/21/global-health-council-v-donald-j-trump/) to resume funding, it remains entirely frozen, and most programmes are still shut down. The day after the court ordered the government to pay [nearly US\\$2 billion](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/25/usaid-funding-trump-administration-court/) it owes organisations for work already done, the administration revealed that it had terminated the vast majority of foreign assistance awards, [including some for Pepfar](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html). Details have not been made public. Meanwhile, the [US Supreme Court put a short-term pause](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html) on the lower court’s order to immediately pay the money already owed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 7, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that funding for the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which is frozen ([NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/us/politics/trump-hiv-aids-pepfar.html), [JIAS](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11851316/), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/03/05/congress/graham-warns-trumps-budget-pick-about-going-too-far-with-funding-freeze-00213662)) at the time of this question, has resumed. If a partial resumption takes place, this question will resolve as **Yes** PEPFAR's funding levels are at least 50% of pre-pause funding.", "fine_print": "An announcement that funding *will* resume will only resolve this question if the date of the resumption is before April 7, 2025 and no credible sources as of that date suggest that funding remains paused. ", "post_id": 35780, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743460142.916306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743460142.916306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0706542671634892 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.871989184175152, 4.214391638316472, 0.9696255532336461, 0.5976581519938668, 0.1816249793226597, 0.9557446276194967, 0.0, 0.5263190413369503, 0.07201112454919256, 0.04978706836786394, 0.04048156063810314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19892345174351658, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.029132572966941807, 0.7469208418768826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.003750798840222434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9307200270794798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07982935021231018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 79.4851303449063, "peer_score": 5.355719768283071, "coverage": 0.9998736614443203, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998736614443203, "spot_peer_score": -1.1850772514592418, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 79.4851303449063, "peer_archived_score": 5.355719768283071, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.1850772514592418, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 402, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "PEPFAR, the President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief, is a United States governmental initiative to address the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Launched by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003, [as of April 2024](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) PEPFAR had provided about \\$120 billion in cumulative funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and research since its inception, making it the largest global health program focused on a single disease in history until the COVID-19 pandemic. PEPFAR [has saved](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) over 26 million lives, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n\nAfter a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation.\n\nAccording to [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) on March 4, 2025: \n\n> \\[A]s of this writing, despite a [court order](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69628254/21/global-health-council-v-donald-j-trump/) to resume funding, it remains entirely frozen, and most programmes are still shut down. The day after the court ordered the government to pay [nearly US\\$2 billion](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/25/usaid-funding-trump-administration-court/) it owes organisations for work already done, the administration revealed that it had terminated the vast majority of foreign assistance awards, [including some for Pepfar](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html). Details have not been made public. Meanwhile, the [US Supreme Court put a short-term pause](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html) on the lower court’s order to immediately pay the money already owed." } ] }
