Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=520
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Question resolves based on how the page appears when checked by a Metaculus Admin.", "post_id": 37795, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747646440.305336, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747646440.305336, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7339732605259862 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9447863337210879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423945157233667, 0.0, 0.03492559661360599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.573671095914291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2775021963486394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001078956545637215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0881569413138735, 0.0, 0.0, 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}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mile High Sports: [The Colorado Rockies have lost a generation of fans](https://milehighsports.com/the-colorado-rockies-have-lost-a-generation-of-fans/)" }, { "id": 37794, "title": "Will any major league baseball player have a .400 batting average on June 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-major-league-baseball-player-have-a-400-batting-average-on-june-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.178557Z", "published_at": "2025-05-19T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.070083Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-19T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-19T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T14:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37116, "title": "Will any major league baseball player have a .400 batting average on June 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.178557Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-19T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-19T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T14:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-02T14:09:48.937134Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-19T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-19T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.65, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, 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"description": "theScore: [How long can Judge's .400 batting average last?](https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/3284701/how-long-can-judges-400-batting-average-last)" }, { "id": 37738, "title": "Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU before 2030?", "short_title": "Youth mobility scheme before 2030?", "url_title": "Youth mobility scheme before 2030?", "slug": "youth-mobility-scheme-before-2030", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-15T21:52:32.563480Z", "published_at": "2025-05-18T00:26:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.738908Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-18T00:27:29.303674Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-19T00:26:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37061, "title": "Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-05-15T21:52:32.563824Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T00:26:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T00:26:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-23T00:26:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU?*\n\n**Current Youth Mobility Scheme**\n\nThe United Kingdom operates a [<u>Youth Mobility Scheme (YMS)</u>](https://www.gov.uk/youth-mobility) that allows young people—typically aged 18 to 30 or 18 to 35, depending on nationality—from [<u>select countries</u>](https://www.qc-immigration.com/work-visas/youth-mobility-visa) to live, work, and study in the UK for up to two years (three years for some nationalities like Australia, Canada, and New Zealand). \n\nThe scheme is based on bilateral agreements and currently includes countries such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and India, among others. Each participating country has an annual quota, and [<u>some nationalities must enter a ballot due to high demand</u>](https://pmgovtschemehub.com/youth-mobility-visa-uk-india-ballot/).\n\n**European Union**\n\nSince Brexit ended freedom of movement between the UK and EU, there have been[<u> calls from advocacy groups, educational organizations, and some politicians</u>](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/labour-mps-call-youth-visa-205352571.html) to establish a new youth mobility scheme between the UK and the European Union.\n\nIn April 2024, the European Commission proposed negotiations for a youth mobility agreement with the UK, [<u>allowing individuals aged 18 to 30 to study, work, or reside in each other's territories for up to four years</u>](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2025-0018/). \n\nDespite these calls, the UK government remains hesitant. Ministers have consistently [<u>ruled out any return to freedom of movement</u>](https://thepienews.com/uk-has-no-plans-for-eu-youth-mobility-scheme-despite-reports/) and have made reducing net migration a manifesto commitment.\n\nHowever, following Labour's ascent to power, there has been a shift in stance. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has expressed openness to a rebranded [<u>\"youth opportunity scheme,\"</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/20/the-guardian-view-on-a-new-deal-for-travel-in-europe-bring-back-student-exchanges?utm_source=chatgpt.com) modeled after Australia's system. This would permit EU and UK citizens aged 18 to 30 to live and work in each other's countries under a capped, time-limited visa system. The Treasury supports this plan, projecting [<u>a potential 0.4–0.45% GDP increase over ten years</u>](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-eu-youth-mobility-scheme-slwxrhlt9?utm_source=chatgpt.com\\®ion=global). \n\nStill, internal disagreements persist. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper advocates for stricter limitations, including a [<u>maximum stay of 12 months and capped quotas</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/23/labour-letter-youth-mobility-scheme-brexit-eu-brussels?utm_source=chatgpt.com), to manage immigration figures. Conversely, the EU prefers a more expansive scheme, with fewer restrictions and longer durations.\n\nThe upcoming [<u>EU-UK summit on May 19, 2025</u>](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-summit/2025/05/19/), is anticipated to address this proposal. While the UK government shows increased receptiveness, the scheme's implementation depends on resolving internal policy differences and reaching a consensus with EU counterparts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **\"Yes\"** if, before December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM GMT, the United Kingdom joins, creates, or expands a youth mobility scheme that meets the following conditions:\n\n* Be an official **bilateral or multilateral agreement** launched between the UK government and the EU.\n* Provide **youth (typically ages 18–30 or 18–35)** from **all EU countries** the legal ability to **live, travel, and work** in the UK for a specified temporary period.\n\nThe question will resolve as **\"No\"** if no such scheme is joined, created, or expanded by the UK government before the resolution deadline.\n\nConfirmation will be based on official UK government publications (e.g., Home Office announcements), treaty records, or reporting from reputable media outlets (e.g., BBC, The Guardian, Reuters).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37738, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753672616.181579, "end_time": 1762267302.931167, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753672616.181579, "end_time": 1762267302.931167, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7660029444432976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0243157823203375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU?*\n\n**Current Youth Mobility Scheme**\n\nThe United Kingdom operates a [<u>Youth Mobility Scheme (YMS)</u>](https://www.gov.uk/youth-mobility) that allows young people—typically aged 18 to 30 or 18 to 35, depending on nationality—from [<u>select countries</u>](https://www.qc-immigration.com/work-visas/youth-mobility-visa) to live, work, and study in the UK for up to two years (three years for some nationalities like Australia, Canada, and New Zealand). \n\nThe scheme is based on bilateral agreements and currently includes countries such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and India, among others. Each participating country has an annual quota, and [<u>some nationalities must enter a ballot due to high demand</u>](https://pmgovtschemehub.com/youth-mobility-visa-uk-india-ballot/).\n\n**European Union**\n\nSince Brexit ended freedom of movement between the UK and EU, there have been[<u> calls from advocacy groups, educational organizations, and some politicians</u>](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/labour-mps-call-youth-visa-205352571.html) to establish a new youth mobility scheme between the UK and the European Union.\n\nIn April 2024, the European Commission proposed negotiations for a youth mobility agreement with the UK, [<u>allowing individuals aged 18 to 30 to study, work, or reside in each other's territories for up to four years</u>](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2025-0018/). \n\nDespite these calls, the UK government remains hesitant. Ministers have consistently [<u>ruled out any return to freedom of movement</u>](https://thepienews.com/uk-has-no-plans-for-eu-youth-mobility-scheme-despite-reports/) and have made reducing net migration a manifesto commitment.\n\nHowever, following Labour's ascent to power, there has been a shift in stance. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has expressed openness to a rebranded [<u>\"youth opportunity scheme,\"</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/20/the-guardian-view-on-a-new-deal-for-travel-in-europe-bring-back-student-exchanges?utm_source=chatgpt.com) modeled after Australia's system. This would permit EU and UK citizens aged 18 to 30 to live and work in each other's countries under a capped, time-limited visa system. The Treasury supports this plan, projecting [<u>a potential 0.4–0.45% GDP increase over ten years</u>](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-eu-youth-mobility-scheme-slwxrhlt9?utm_source=chatgpt.com\\®ion=global). \n\nStill, internal disagreements persist. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper advocates for stricter limitations, including a [<u>maximum stay of 12 months and capped quotas</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/23/labour-letter-youth-mobility-scheme-brexit-eu-brussels?utm_source=chatgpt.com), to manage immigration figures. Conversely, the EU prefers a more expansive scheme, with fewer restrictions and longer durations.\n\nThe upcoming [<u>EU-UK summit on May 19, 2025</u>](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-summit/2025/05/19/), is anticipated to address this proposal. While the UK government shows increased receptiveness, the scheme's implementation depends on resolving internal policy differences and reaching a consensus with EU counterparts." }, { "id": 37737, "title": "Will a federal voter ID bill be signed by Trump before Jan. 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Id bill signed by 2029?", "url_title": "Id bill signed by 2029?", "slug": "id-bill-signed-by-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-15T21:50:29.319791Z", "published_at": "2025-05-18T00:30:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.771144Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-18T00:31:24.546736Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-19T00:30:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37060, "title": "Will a federal voter ID bill be signed by Trump before Jan. 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-05-15T21:50:29.320220Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T00:30:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T00:30:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-23T00:30:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will a federal voter ID bill be signed by Trump?*\n\nThe debate over a federal voter ID law—specifically, legislation requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections—has become a contentious issue in US politics.. President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers have made this a top priority, arguing it is necessary to secure elections, while Democrats and voting rights advocates warn it could disenfranchise millions of eligible voters.\n\nIn March 2025, [<u>President Trump signed an executive order</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/preserving-and-protecting-the-integrity-of-american-elections/) mandating that [<u>individuals provide proof of US citizenship</u>](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/03/25/trump-executive-order-voter-id/82657485007/) — such as a [<u>passport or REAL ID-compliant driver’s license</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/26/g-s1-55927/trump-voting-citizenship-executive-order) — when registering to vote in federal elections. The order also [<u>directs federal agencies to assist states in purging noncitizens from voter rolls</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/26/g-s1-55927/trump-voting-citizenship-executive-order) and [<u>threatens to withhold federal election funds from states that do not comply</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/presidents-executive-order-elections-explained).\n\nMeanwhile, the [<u>Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act</u>](https://campaignlegal.org/update/what-you-need-know-about-save-act)—which aims to [<u>codify Trump’s executive order into law</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/house-passes-republican-bill-requiring-voters-provide-proof-of-u-s-citizenship) and mandates documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration in federal elections—[<u>passed the House of Representatives</u>](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-passes-bill-requiring-proof-citizenship-vote-federal-elections-rcna200586) in April with a [<u>220–208 vote</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-passes-save-act-proof-of-citizenship-voter-registration-federal-elections/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), but faces hurdles in the Senate. [<u>Introduced by Representative Chip Roy (R-TX) on January 3, 2025</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the SAVE Act seeks to amend the [<u>National Voter Registration Act of 1993</u>](https://www.justice.gov/crt/national-voter-registration-act-1993-nvra). It would [<u>require individuals to present specific documents</u>](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-passes-bill-requiring-proof-citizenship-vote-federal-elections-rcna200586) — such as a U.S. passport, birth certificate, or a REAL ID-compliant driver's license indicating citizenship — when registering to vote in federal elections. The bill aims to prevent noncitizens from voting, despite evidence indicating that such instances are exceedingly rare.", "resolution_criteria": "**Resolution Criteria:**\nThis question will resolve as **\"Yes\"** if, on or before January 20, 2029 at 11:59 PM ET, a bill establishing a **federal voter identification requirement** is signed into law by **Donald J. Trump** while serving as President of the United States.\n\nTo qualify, all of the following conditions must be met:\n\n* **Federal Legislation**: The bill must be passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by Donald J. Trump.\n* **Voter ID Requirement**: The legislation must explicitly require voters in federal elections (e.g., presidential, congressional) to present government-issued photo identification in order to vote in person.\n* **Signed by Trump**: The bill must be signed while Donald J. Trump is serving as President.\n\n**The question will resolve as \"No\"** if:\n\n* No such bill is signed into law by January 20, 2029 at 11:59 PM ET.\n* A federal voter ID law is enacted but not signed by Donald J. Trump.\n* Donald J. Trump is no longer President of the United States.\n\nConfirmation will be based on official government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House announcements) and reporting from reputable media outlets (e.g., The Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37737, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756529570.474385, "end_time": 1759477293.33104, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756529570.474385, "end_time": 1759477293.33104, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.5985415568133907 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7512932451656251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6515535445299288, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.6089113662881536, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will a federal voter ID bill be signed by Trump?*\n\nThe debate over a federal voter ID law—specifically, legislation requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections—has become a contentious issue in US politics.. President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers have made this a top priority, arguing it is necessary to secure elections, while Democrats and voting rights advocates warn it could disenfranchise millions of eligible voters.\n\nIn March 2025, [<u>President Trump signed an executive order</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/preserving-and-protecting-the-integrity-of-american-elections/) mandating that [<u>individuals provide proof of US citizenship</u>](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/03/25/trump-executive-order-voter-id/82657485007/) — such as a [<u>passport or REAL ID-compliant driver’s license</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/26/g-s1-55927/trump-voting-citizenship-executive-order) — when registering to vote in federal elections. The order also [<u>directs federal agencies to assist states in purging noncitizens from voter rolls</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/26/g-s1-55927/trump-voting-citizenship-executive-order) and [<u>threatens to withhold federal election funds from states that do not comply</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/presidents-executive-order-elections-explained).\n\nMeanwhile, the [<u>Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act</u>](https://campaignlegal.org/update/what-you-need-know-about-save-act)—which aims to [<u>codify Trump’s executive order into law</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/house-passes-republican-bill-requiring-voters-provide-proof-of-u-s-citizenship) and mandates documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration in federal elections—[<u>passed the House of Representatives</u>](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-passes-bill-requiring-proof-citizenship-vote-federal-elections-rcna200586) in April with a [<u>220–208 vote</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-passes-save-act-proof-of-citizenship-voter-registration-federal-elections/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), but faces hurdles in the Senate. [<u>Introduced by Representative Chip Roy (R-TX) on January 3, 2025</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the SAVE Act seeks to amend the [<u>National Voter Registration Act of 1993</u>](https://www.justice.gov/crt/national-voter-registration-act-1993-nvra). It would [<u>require individuals to present specific documents</u>](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-passes-bill-requiring-proof-citizenship-vote-federal-elections-rcna200586) — such as a U.S. passport, birth certificate, or a REAL ID-compliant driver's license indicating citizenship — when registering to vote in federal elections. The bill aims to prevent noncitizens from voting, despite evidence indicating that such instances are exceedingly rare." }, { "id": 37700, "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?", "short_title": "War between India and Pakistan before 2027?", "url_title": "War between India and Pakistan before 2027?", "slug": "war-between-india-and-pakistan-before-2027", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-12T20:07:52.839000Z", "published_at": "2025-05-20T18:40:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.876296Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-20T18:41:32.492066Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-21T18:40:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37047, "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-05-12T20:07:52.839407Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T18:40:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-22T18:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-22T18:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 22, 2025, armed terrorists [killed 26 civilians near Pahalgam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack) in the Indian-administered territories of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan denied involvement in the attacks, but in response to the attack India [downgraded diplomatic ties](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nuclear-neighbors-india-pakistan-step-closer-war-heres-121662092) and gunfire was exchanged in skirmishes between the two countries. On May 6, India [conducted missile strikes](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-missiles-border-tensions-21a2859557179f2b32d6b8d5628ac853) on Pakistan in an attack [dubbed Operation Sindoor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_conflict), which Pakistan [claimed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o) killed 31 people. Pakistan also [claimed](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-hnk-intl) it shot down five Indian aircraft during the attack. India claimed shelling by Pakistan killed at least 15 civilians on the Indian side of the de facto border.\n\nIndia and Pakistan, the largest and fifth largest countries in the world [by population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), have a [long history](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan) of conflict over territory. Tensions between the two countries pose an especially high risk due not only to their size, but to the fact that the countries are [two of eight states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) to have acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons.\n\nOn May 10, US President Donald Trump [announced](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114483405683675564) the countries had reached a truce, which each side later [confirmed](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-tensions-timeline-kashmir-d43f29a59c31e2cf5e56c119aa098cb9). However, India and Pakistan promptly [accused](https://apnews.com/article/india-pakistan-missiles-air-bases-1de0ca13c13899f0bd3530b4808d45ad) each other of violating the ceasefire.\n\n[](https://apnews.com/article/214bde245a63339617dd644e061fbbd2?utm_source=chatgpt.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025, and before January 1, 2027, at least 1,000 deaths have occurred in direct conflict between India and Pakistan, according to reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). To the extent possible, only deaths caused by and to citizens of each country, members of the military of each country, or people within the borders or disputed regions of each country will be counted toward the 1,000 death threshold.\n\nDirect conflict is defined as conflict between the military forces or law enforcement of India and Pakistan using kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear means and all deaths caused by such a conflict count, including civilians. Deaths from attacks by or towards proxies such as militants in Jammu and Kashmir do not count for the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "* In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admins may wait up to February 1, 2027, to make a determination and may use all information published prior to that date.\n* Deaths will be totaled over the entire period in question.\n* If reported death totals do not specify which conflict they occurred in (e.g., a total number of deaths suffered by India without distinguishing whether those deaths were caused by Pakistan or another adversary), Metaculus may use available estimates to determine whether the threshold has been met.\n* Deaths from covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n* Deaths caused by friendly fire do not count, as long as they are explicitly referred to as such by credible sources.\n* Deaths caused indirectly, for example as a result of sabotage or cyber-warfare do not count.\n* Direct effects of an attack (e.g. fires, building collapses, or other immediate consequences occurring within 24 hours of the attack) would be included in the count. Effects that develop over longer timeframes (e.g. economic disruption) would not be counted.", "post_id": 37700, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756965957.352729, "end_time": 1757781038.258, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756965957.352729, "end_time": 1757781038.258, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.13297270011714998 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.26629006976841835, 0.9036232277094834, 1.048468494435099, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.7044557671278566, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 1.562306479468699, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9054164711844737, 0.04091934181495329, 1.0011290007917808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.16771558601284092, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 22, 2025, armed terrorists [killed 26 civilians near Pahalgam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack) in the Indian-administered territories of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan denied involvement in the attacks, but in response to the attack India [downgraded diplomatic ties](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nuclear-neighbors-india-pakistan-step-closer-war-heres-121662092) and gunfire was exchanged in skirmishes between the two countries. On May 6, India [conducted missile strikes](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-missiles-border-tensions-21a2859557179f2b32d6b8d5628ac853) on Pakistan in an attack [dubbed Operation Sindoor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_conflict), which Pakistan [claimed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o) killed 31 people. Pakistan also [claimed](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-hnk-intl) it shot down five Indian aircraft during the attack. India claimed shelling by Pakistan killed at least 15 civilians on the Indian side of the de facto border.\n\nIndia and Pakistan, the largest and fifth largest countries in the world [by population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), have a [long history](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan) of conflict over territory. Tensions between the two countries pose an especially high risk due not only to their size, but to the fact that the countries are [two of eight states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) to have acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons.\n\nOn May 10, US President Donald Trump [announced](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114483405683675564) the countries had reached a truce, which each side later [confirmed](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-tensions-timeline-kashmir-d43f29a59c31e2cf5e56c119aa098cb9). However, India and Pakistan promptly [accused](https://apnews.com/article/india-pakistan-missiles-air-bases-1de0ca13c13899f0bd3530b4808d45ad) each other of violating the ceasefire.\n\n[](https://apnews.com/article/214bde245a63339617dd644e061fbbd2?utm_source=chatgpt.com)" }, { "id": 37699, "title": "Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?", "short_title": "Sam Altman + Elon Musk together at YC AI Startup School?", "url_title": "Sam Altman + Elon Musk together at YC AI Startup School?", "slug": "sam-altman-elon-musk-together-at-yc-ai-startup-school", "author_id": 271288, "author_username": "etridgely", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-12T19:51:29.986741Z", "published_at": "2025-05-22T10:16:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.632746Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-22T10:19:57.909784Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T10:16:57Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37046, "title": "Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?", "created_at": "2025-05-12T19:51:29.987161Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T10:16:57Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-27T10:16:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-27T10:16:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-19T23:00:53.135600Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Y Combinator is an American venture capital firm known for launching over 5,000 companies including Airbnb, Stripe, and Reddit. In 2025, Y Combinator announced AI Startup School, a conference in San Francisco held on June 16–17, aimed at 2,000 final-year students and recent graduates in computer science, artificial intelligence, and related fields. \n\nY Combinator has announced that both Sam Altman and Elon Musk are among the headline speakers at the AI Startup School, but it is unknown whether they will appear on stage together at the same time.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Sam Altman and Elon Musk share a stage together at YC AI Startup School after 7:59 AM, June 16, 2025, and before 00:00 AM, June 18, 2025. Otherwise, this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "Sharing a stage is defined as both individuals being physically present on the same platform at the same time. \n\nThis question will resolve according to a preponderance of evidence. If there is no clear evidence of this occurring before July 1, 2025, this question will resolve as No.\n\nAll times for this question are in Pacific Daylight Time (PDT).  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The top 10 importers of shrimp to the US in 2024 were:\n\nCountry / Metric Tons Imported (Source: [NOAA](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/foss/f?p=215:20:12944266251216:::::)) \n\n1\\) India / 294,318 MT\n\n2\\) Ecuador / 187,040\n\n3\\) Indonesia / 134,802\n\n4\\) Vietnam / 68,407\n\n5\\) Thailand / 26,895\n\n6\\) Argentina / 14,709\n\n7\\) Mexico / 13,867\n\n8\\) China / 2,842\n\n9\\) Saudi Arabia / 2,826\n\n10\\) Peru / 2,475\n\nRecent History: \n2025: American Shrimp industry welcomes Trump's tariffs as badly need \"lifeline\" ([here](https://shrimpalliance.com/u-s-shrimp-industry-hails-new-tariffs-as-crucial-lifeline/ \"here\")) / Amyco blog post on record January import numbers ([here](https://www.amycoseafoods.com/china-seafood-news/u.s.-shrimp-imports-rose-sharply-in-january.html \"here\"))\n\nShrimp Industry:\nShrimp Insights ([here](https://www.shrimpinsights.com/ \"here\"))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the United States imports more than 760,531 metric tons of shrimp in 2025. Otherwise this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "The primary source for resolution will be [NOAA's shrimp import data](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/foss/f?p=215:20:12944266251216:::::).\n\nIf NOAA stops collecting this data or it is considered unreliable by Metaculus, then other reliable sources may be used.", "post_id": 37690, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757519338.030307, "end_time": 1762507184.599, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757519338.030307, "end_time": 1762507184.599, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.34259913442645273 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.955703889736218, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2024, 760,531 metric tons of shrimp were imported into the United States from all countries. \n\nThe US has a small domestic farmed and wild caught shrimp industry, but the vast majority of the shrimp consumed in the country is imported. The top 10 importers of shrimp to the US in 2024 were:\n\nCountry / Metric Tons Imported (Source: [NOAA](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/foss/f?p=215:20:12944266251216:::::)) \n\n1\\) India / 294,318 MT\n\n2\\) Ecuador / 187,040\n\n3\\) Indonesia / 134,802\n\n4\\) Vietnam / 68,407\n\n5\\) Thailand / 26,895\n\n6\\) Argentina / 14,709\n\n7\\) Mexico / 13,867\n\n8\\) China / 2,842\n\n9\\) Saudi Arabia / 2,826\n\n10\\) Peru / 2,475\n\nRecent History: \n2025: American Shrimp industry welcomes Trump's tariffs as badly need \"lifeline\" ([here](https://shrimpalliance.com/u-s-shrimp-industry-hails-new-tariffs-as-crucial-lifeline/ \"here\")) / Amyco blog post on record January import numbers ([here](https://www.amycoseafoods.com/china-seafood-news/u.s.-shrimp-imports-rose-sharply-in-january.html \"here\"))\n\nShrimp Industry:\nShrimp Insights ([here](https://www.shrimpinsights.com/ \"here\"))" }, { "id": 37689, "title": "Will the National Party win more seats than the Liberal Party in an election for the Australian House of Representatives before 2035?", "short_title": "Nationals win more than Liberals in election before 2035?", "url_title": "Nationals win more than Liberals in election before 2035?", "slug": "nationals-win-more-than-liberals-in-election-before-2035", "author_id": 168828, "author_username": "YellowSpectacular", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-10T12:42:13.505475Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T00:10:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.721191Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-16T00:10:59.775224Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-11-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-17T00:10:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37041, "title": "Will the National Party win more seats than the Liberal Party in an election for the Australian House of Representatives before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-05-10T12:42:13.505886Z", "open_time": "2025-05-17T00:10:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-21T00:10:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-21T00:10:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-11-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-11-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[In the recent Australian federal election](https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-31496.htm), [the Liberal–National Coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_\\(Australia\\) \"the Liberal–National Coalition\") faced an electoral defeat, accompanied by a [landslide victory](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9djze015xlo \"landslide victory\") for the Australian Labor Party. This decreased the Coalition's seat share in the House of Representatives, while increasing the ALP's. In the same [count](https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-31496-NAT.htm \"count\"), the Liberal Party decreased it's FPVs, and the National Party increased it's FPVs, leading to dramatic losses for the Liberal Party while the National Party is down only 1 seat from 2022.\n\nIn every election from 2016 to 2025, the Liberal Party has lost more FPVs and more seats than the National Party.\n\nThis creates an interesting question of if the Nationals may eventually have more seats than the Liberals in the House of Representatives, even if the Coalition shrinks in seats overall, which would make them the senior partner to the Liberal-National Coalition.", "resolution_criteria": "If the National Party of Australia wins more seats than the Liberal Party of Australia in the House of Representatives this question will resolve as **Yes.**\n\nIf this does not occur before 2035, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question will consider MPs who sit with either party as a seat for the respective party, even if they run under another party such as the Queensland Liberal National Party.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based upon election results as confirmed by the [Australian Electoral Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Electoral_Commission \"Australian Electoral Commission\").\n\nThis question considers any federal election for the House of Representatives before 2035, be it a normal scheduled one, or a snap election.\n\nA tie will not be sufficient to resolve this question.\n\nIf an MP switches party, such as becoming an independent, or a QLNP MP swapping party they sit with, that will not impact this question, only the initial makeup will qualify.\n\nName changes, such as the renaming of the \"National Country Party\" to \"National Party of Australia\" will not impact this question.", "post_id": 37689, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756974149.62077, "end_time": 1777563834.319193, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756974149.62077, "end_time": 1777563834.319193, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.20451987188902201 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4201535465161124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.43801232708190485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[In the recent Australian federal election](https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-31496.htm), [the Liberal–National Coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_\\(Australia\\) \"the Liberal–National Coalition\") faced an electoral defeat, accompanied by a [landslide victory](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9djze015xlo \"landslide victory\") for the Australian Labor Party. This decreased the Coalition's seat share in the House of Representatives, while increasing the ALP's. In the same [count](https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-31496-NAT.htm \"count\"), the Liberal Party decreased it's FPVs, and the National Party increased it's FPVs, leading to dramatic losses for the Liberal Party while the National Party is down only 1 seat from 2022.\n\nIn every election from 2016 to 2025, the Liberal Party has lost more FPVs and more seats than the National Party.\n\nThis creates an interesting question of if the Nationals may eventually have more seats than the Liberals in the House of Representatives, even if the Coalition shrinks in seats overall, which would make them the senior partner to the Liberal-National Coalition." }, { "id": 37687, "title": "Will Ghana sign into law \"The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values\" bill before 2026?", "short_title": "Ghana anti-LGBTQ bill signed into law before 2026?", "url_title": "Ghana anti-LGBTQ bill signed into law before 2026?", "slug": "ghana-anti-lgbtq-bill-signed-into-law-before-2026", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:54:38.580756Z", "published_at": "2025-05-28T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.185938Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-28T02:27:48.834377Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-30T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37040, "title": "Will Ghana sign into law \"The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values\" bill before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:54:38.581249Z", "open_time": "2025-05-30T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-07T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-07T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values bill - or, more simply, the Ghanaian anti-LGBTQ bill - is a piece of Ghanian legislation which aims to introduce restrictions on LGBTQ persons, essentially making it illegal to identify as any sexual orientation other than heterosexual.\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghanaian_anti-LGBTQ_bill#Domestic_reactions), it was introduced in June 2021:\n\n> [Speaker of the Parliament of Ghana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_Parliament_of_Ghana \"Speaker of the Parliament of Ghana\") [Alban Bagbin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alban_Bagbin \"Alban Bagbin\") stated that LGBT+ rights \"should not be encouraged or accepted by our society\" and that \"urgent actions are being taken to pass a law to eventually nip the activities of \\[LGBTQ] groups in the bud.\"\n\nFrom then on, the bill successfully went through three 'readings', as well as several committee hearings. However, then President, Nana Akufo-Addo, failed to sign the bill into law, latterly refusing to do so until two Supreme Court cases challenging the legislation were concluded.\n\nUpon passing the Presidency to current President John Mahama, the bill expired, but the expiry was short lived, and those sponsoring the bill revived it with a renewed legal basis in light of both Supreme Court cases being [unanimously dismissed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crrw2r8epw8o#:~:text=Ghana's%20Supreme%20Court%20has%20unanimously,forming%20or%20funding%20LGBT%20groups.):\n\n> A bill that would make it illegal to be anything but heterosexual in Ghana has been reintroduced in parliament with stronger backing than it got the last time lawmakers tried to get it passed into law.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> A parliamentary committee is expected to start its public hearings on the bill’s contents after it resumes from recess in May, said George, who’s also minister of communications in Ghana’s new cabinet.\n\n###### Bloomberg: [Ghana Revives Anti-LGBTQ Bill in Second Attempt to Make It Law](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/ghana-revives-anti-lgbtq-bill-in-second-attempt-to-make-it-law)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, Ghana signs into law the Ghanaian anti-LGBTQ bill (otherwise known as *\"The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values\"* and *\"Human Sexual Rights and Family Values Bill\"*).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37687, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756944010.267622, "end_time": 1759536011.433, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756944010.267622, "end_time": 1759536011.433, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4810823641402161 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values bill - or, more simply, the Ghanaian anti-LGBTQ bill - is a piece of Ghanian legislation which aims to introduce restrictions on LGBTQ persons, essentially making it illegal to identify as any sexual orientation other than heterosexual.\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghanaian_anti-LGBTQ_bill#Domestic_reactions), it was introduced in June 2021:\n\n> [Speaker of the Parliament of Ghana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_Parliament_of_Ghana \"Speaker of the Parliament of Ghana\") [Alban Bagbin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alban_Bagbin \"Alban Bagbin\") stated that LGBT+ rights \"should not be encouraged or accepted by our society\" and that \"urgent actions are being taken to pass a law to eventually nip the activities of \\[LGBTQ] groups in the bud.\"\n\nFrom then on, the bill successfully went through three 'readings', as well as several committee hearings. However, then President, Nana Akufo-Addo, failed to sign the bill into law, latterly refusing to do so until two Supreme Court cases challenging the legislation were concluded.\n\nUpon passing the Presidency to current President John Mahama, the bill expired, but the expiry was short lived, and those sponsoring the bill revived it with a renewed legal basis in light of both Supreme Court cases being [unanimously dismissed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crrw2r8epw8o#:~:text=Ghana's%20Supreme%20Court%20has%20unanimously,forming%20or%20funding%20LGBT%20groups.):\n\n> A bill that would make it illegal to be anything but heterosexual in Ghana has been reintroduced in parliament with stronger backing than it got the last time lawmakers tried to get it passed into law.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> A parliamentary committee is expected to start its public hearings on the bill’s contents after it resumes from recess in May, said George, who’s also minister of communications in Ghana’s new cabinet.\n\n###### Bloomberg: [Ghana Revives Anti-LGBTQ Bill in Second Attempt to Make It Law](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/ghana-revives-anti-lgbtq-bill-in-second-attempt-to-make-it-law)" }, { "id": 37685, "title": "Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-steelnippon-steel-merger-collapse-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:53:27.970521Z", "published_at": "2025-05-14T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.961571Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T13:45:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 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There are 54 signatories at the time of this question: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Panama, Peru, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. [(source)](https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-oceans-and-international-environmental-and-scientific-affairs/artemis-accords)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Artemis Accords has 55 (or more) signatories on July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37662, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747409078.568049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.906 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747409078.568049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.906 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9103407342149563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03823528481312164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001078956545637215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21189784639931528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8922909885556951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5239242875781319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38587826502743616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004025379543753844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949821644089254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6665693504079824, 0.0, 1.202444939814294, 0.0, 0.46428797296367197, 3.0967824785810416, 0.1601313494724224, 1.7451413723818785, 1.670460170322535, 3.310290554066712 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The most recent signatory was Bangladesh, on April 8, 2025. There are 54 signatories at the time of this question: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Panama, Peru, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. 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