Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5200
{ "count": 6407, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5220", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5180", "results": [ { "id": 5409, "title": "Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?", "short_title": "UN Security Council Vetoes (2021)", "url_title": "UN Security Council Vetoes (2021)", "slug": "un-security-council-vetoes-2021", "author_id": 111805, "author_username": "galen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-11T10:54:25.713019Z", "published_at": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.859314Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:44:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5409, "title": "Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?", "created_at": "2020-10-11T10:54:25.713019Z", "open_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T19:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United Nations Charter of 1945 grants five sovereign states a permanent seat on the UN Security Council: the People's Republic of China (formerly the Republic of China), the French Republic, the Russian Federation (formerly the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. While the 'power of veto' is not mentioned by name in the UN Charter, Article 27 grants [each of the five permanent member states the ability to veto any 'substantive' resolution](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art27.shtml).\n\nSince the first veto in 1946, the use of the veto power has reflected shifting political balances. Early in the history of the UN, the majority of vetoes were cast by the Soviet Union. From 1970 to 1991, the US cast 56% of the vetoes. In recent years, this balance has once again shifted: China has not cast a lone veto vote since 1999, and has frequently joined Russia in vetoes since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Neither France nor the UK has used their veto power since 1989.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves according to the total number of vetoed resolutions recorded on the [research.un.org website](https://research.un.org/en/docs/sc/quick/meetings/) on 1 January 2022.\n\nThis question concerns the **number of unique resolutions vetoed**, not the number of veto votes cast. For example, the draft resolution '[S/2019/961](https://undocs.org/en/S/2019/961)' was vetoed by [both Russia and China](https://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8697), but would contribute only one to the 2019 tally.", "fine_print": "In the event that the official UN website is not active at the time of resolution, this question resolves ambiguously.", "post_id": 5409, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609418893.109416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609418893.109416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.45399298069576677 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059941961527627124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9929473008958882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.349999909761404, 0.0, 1.399892862493966, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6139448383506039, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.92013967893912, "coverage": 0.9984048517167041, "baseline_score": 35.00457919326269, "spot_peer_score": 7.04441187178705, "peer_archived_score": 8.92013967893912, "baseline_archived_score": 35.00457919326269, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.04441187178705 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609418893.161741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609418893.161741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7245729028736356, 0.27542709712636443 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United Nations Charter of 1945 grants five sovereign states a permanent seat on the UN Security Council: the People's Republic of China (formerly the Republic of China), the French Republic, the Russian Federation (formerly the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. While the 'power of veto' is not mentioned by name in the UN Charter, Article 27 grants [each of the five permanent member states the ability to veto any 'substantive' resolution](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art27.shtml).\n\nSince the first veto in 1946, the use of the veto power has reflected shifting political balances. Early in the history of the UN, the majority of vetoes were cast by the Soviet Union. From 1970 to 1991, the US cast 56% of the vetoes. In recent years, this balance has once again shifted: China has not cast a lone veto vote since 1999, and has frequently joined Russia in vetoes since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Neither France nor the UK has used their veto power since 1989." }, { "id": 5407, "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", "short_title": "Starlink largest IPO before 2030", "url_title": "Starlink largest IPO before 2030", "slug": "starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030", "author_id": 110540, "author_username": "randallburns", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-11T06:58:35.955303Z", "published_at": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.066302Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-14T06:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-14T06:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5407, "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", "created_at": "2020-10-11T06:58:35.955303Z", "open_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-02-20T12:18:39.190881Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-02-20T12:18:39.190881Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-14T06:57:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-14T06:57:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/)\n\nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\n\n***Will Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?***\n\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\n\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\n[fine-print]\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5407, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763531379.63664, "end_time": 1764005596.747584, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763531379.63664, "end_time": 1764005596.747584, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24251318552188028 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7858342852282592, 0.0, 0.0, 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"interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.858252633407855, 0.14174736659214507 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 208, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 5406, "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?", "short_title": "GWP Doubles in <4 Years by 2050", "url_title": "GWP Doubles in <4 Years by 2050", "slug": "gwp-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050", "author_id": 100552, "author_username": "WilliamKiely", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-11T03:15:30.270168Z", "published_at": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T11:52:00.869598Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5406, "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?", "created_at": "2020-10-11T03:15:30.270168Z", "open_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-16T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-16T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/gwp-doubles-in-4-years-vs-1-year-by-2050/)\n* [Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/gwp-doubles-in-4-years-vs-1-year-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\nAs of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\n\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\n\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\n\nThis question will resolve positively if world output doubles in a period of 4 years or less before 2050. It resolves negatively otherwise, i.e. if the following related question resolves ambiguously:\n\n* [Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5406, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763050829.447847, "end_time": 1764050900.166976, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763050829.447847, "end_time": 1764050900.166976, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.38235671878397415 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8051998787570201, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5410256352135616, 0.7402095684347904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07316787956351958, 0.0, 0.9081469523138255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29486860833453554, 0.0, 0.029873235309733973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007656467792045982, 0.5708338054187606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026884426431469374, 0.0945873828141786, 0.0, 0.0331191247199604, 0.10819054156401371, 0.0, 0.18410580569704582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5011495311528927, 0.7359273584237145, 0.12724691537418747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0445799336120917, 0.0, 0.0041768548738893045, 0.0, 0.04045340951854798, 0.6351236035670608, 0.3118617075785659, 0.09959693749384557, 0.0, 0.015244778358237942, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5699560975968017, 0.0, 0.0006710788861047596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2619251450302973, 0.3025442819776106, 0.03663966570762298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028594267247472834, 0.18761293738011062, 0.22458044856138382, 0.0, 0.11739512936746152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24062594349076266, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023098888201352648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23822088803502073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288013.601698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288013.601698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8666580168931527, 0.1333419831068473 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 208, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/gwp-doubles-in-4-years-vs-1-year-by-2050/)\n* [Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/gwp-doubles-in-4-years-vs-1-year-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\nAs of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\n\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\n\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)" }, { "id": 5397, "title": "Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?", "short_title": "Prop 21 in California 2020", "url_title": "Prop 21 in California 2020", "slug": "prop-21-in-california-2020", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-09T04:00:42.044541Z", "published_at": "2020-10-11T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.256930Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-11T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-05T07:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-05T07:52:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-11T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5397, "title": "Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?", "created_at": "2020-10-09T04:00:42.044541Z", "open_time": "2020-10-11T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-13T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-13T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-05T07:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-05T07:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-05T07:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Proposition 21](https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Proposition?number=21&year=2020#:~:text=Proposal,more%20than%2015%20years%20old.),\n\n> Allows for Expansion of Rent Control. The measure modifies the three main limitations of Costa-Hawkins, allowing cities and counties to apply rent control to more properties than under current law. Specifically, cities and counties can apply rent control to most housing that is more than 15 years old. This does not include single-family homes owned by people with two or fewer properties. In addition, cities and counties can limit how much a landlord can increase rents when a new renter moves in. Communities that do so must allow a landlord to increase rents by up to 15 percent during the first three years after a new renter moves in.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if credible media report that proposition 21 passed in the 2020 California election", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5397, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604383098.957168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604383098.957168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5700000000000001, 0.43 ], "means": [ 0.43166013707573514 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06825837252413955, 0.0, 0.25633089729369585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01328166791512114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7922460993238396, 0.4836050927143443, 0.7316591424190335, 1.3492056067760725, 0.01644146499808245, 0.0, 0.005838829315397701, 0.0, 0.11096509564589224, 2.4021151622482932, 0.0, 0.1717686095865529, 0.0, 0.7348701383720015, 1.7886338175769179, 0.733608151268092, 1.467414822779788, 0.2881780280756081, 0.0, 0.09878615287055517, 0.0, 0.05224102104996991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024016566893208465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03353515913390628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.18132127994374503, "coverage": 0.9770989804596506, "baseline_score": -5.442439031843777, "spot_peer_score": 7.699326516819166, "peer_archived_score": 0.18132127994374503, "baseline_archived_score": -5.442439031843777, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.699326516819166 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604383098.984517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604383098.984517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5814850682089939, 0.4185149317910061 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Proposition 21](https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Proposition?number=21&year=2020#:~:text=Proposal,more%20than%2015%20years%20old.),\n\n> Allows for Expansion of Rent Control. The measure modifies the three main limitations of Costa-Hawkins, allowing cities and counties to apply rent control to more properties than under current law. Specifically, cities and counties can apply rent control to most housing that is more than 15 years old. This does not include single-family homes owned by people with two or fewer properties. In addition, cities and counties can limit how much a landlord can increase rents when a new renter moves in. Communities that do so must allow a landlord to increase rents by up to 15 percent during the first three years after a new renter moves in." }, { "id": 5396, "title": "Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?", "short_title": "Prop 16 in California 2020", "url_title": "Prop 16 in California 2020", "slug": "prop-16-in-california-2020", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-09T03:55:02.533238Z", "published_at": "2020-10-11T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.338633Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-11T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-05T07:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-05T07:52:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-11T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5396, "title": "Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?", "created_at": "2020-10-09T03:55:02.533238Z", "open_time": "2020-10-11T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-13T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-13T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-05T07:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-05T07:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-05T07:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Proposition 16 [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_California_Proposition_16),\n\n> a California ballot proposition that will appear on the November 3, 2020 general election ballot, asking California voters to amend the Constitution of California to repeal 1996's Proposition 209. Proposition 209 amended the state constitution to prohibit government institutions from considering race, sex, or ethnicity, specifically in the areas of public employment, public contracting, and public education. 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Proposition 209 amended the state constitution to prohibit government institutions from considering race, sex, or ethnicity, specifically in the areas of public employment, public contracting, and public education. 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Notably, the higher proportion of mail ballots brought by the COVID-19 epidemic could lead vote counting to take [weeks](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/how-long-election-results-2020/) instead of the usual days. The incumbent has also [refused](https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54274115) to commit to a peaceful transition of power.\n\nMetaculus already has a [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/) asking whether Donald Trump will be reelected, but it is conditional on the result being known within a week. 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Notably, the higher proportion of mail ballots brought by the COVID-19 epidemic could lead vote counting to take [weeks](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/how-long-election-results-2020/) instead of the usual days. The incumbent has also [refused](https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54274115) to commit to a peaceful transition of power.\n\nMetaculus already has a [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/) asking whether Donald Trump will be reelected, but it is conditional on the result being known within a week. In view of the above, this question asks:" }, { "id": 5380, "title": "Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?", "short_title": "Will John McAfee go to prison?", "url_title": "Will John McAfee go to prison?", "slug": "will-john-mcafee-go-to-prison", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-06T21:10:35.439392Z", "published_at": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.000745Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-23T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-23T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5380, "title": "Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?", "created_at": "2020-10-06T21:10:35.439392Z", "open_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-06-23T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-06-23T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-23T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):\n\n>Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.\n\n>The SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.\n\n>[In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”\n\n>[The DOJ’s charges](https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1324536/download) against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.\n\n>[The SEC filing is a much more interesting read](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18506139/1/securities-and-exchange-commission-v-mcafee/), with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges.", "resolution_criteria": "- If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively.\n- If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date.\n- Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence.\n- Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution.\n- If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5380, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1624499190.324679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1624499190.324679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.17904875018658986 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.016506543622256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0775030084782564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2106750195973517, 0.09878615287055517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24223941112120584, 0.0, 0.06825837252413955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010488891604094424, 0.03328838488662604, 0.03913203907098744, 0.2819752713399747, 1.2922005104661696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058000066576353954, 0.45358135692058044, 0.11096509564589224, 0.0, 0.25633089729369585, 0.028511763448086522, 0.0, 0.12426951433661654, 0.19043220276906433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024016566893208465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005838829315397701 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.9301764426463808, "coverage": 0.11020872753794601, "baseline_score": -2.3878811649587526, "spot_peer_score": 68.03779734893178, "peer_archived_score": 1.9301764426463808, "baseline_archived_score": -2.3878811649587526, "spot_peer_archived_score": 68.03779734893178 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1624476087.175818, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1624476087.175818, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5006605572127503, 0.49933944278724973 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):\n\n>Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.\n\n>The SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.\n\n>[In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”\n\n>[The DOJ’s charges](https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1324536/download) against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.\n\n>[The SEC filing is a much more interesting read](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18506139/1/securities-and-exchange-commission-v-mcafee/), with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges." }, { "id": 5366, "title": "On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?", "short_title": "COVID-related deaths in Sweden vs. Denmark", "url_title": "COVID-related deaths in Sweden vs. Denmark", "slug": "covid-related-deaths-in-sweden-vs-denmark", "author_id": 114683, "author_username": "yshemesh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-06T11:32:04.927504Z", "published_at": "2020-10-20T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.998659Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-20T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-03T01:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-03T01:03:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-20T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 115, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5366, "title": "On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?", "created_at": "2020-10-06T11:32:04.927504Z", "open_time": "2020-10-20T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-21T01:30:58.371665Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-21T01:30:58.371665Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-03T01:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-03T01:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-03T01:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6zHJIfPxLMxp5ul).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nIn the beginning months of the COVID-19 crisis, Sweden and Denmark, two Nordic neighbors with extensive shared culture and history, took vastly different approaches to dealing with the pandemic. [While Denmark swiftly enacted lockdowns in March, Sweden only recommended to its citizens to work from home and follow social distancing and hygiene guidelines](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/sweden/articles/covid-sweden-vs-denmark-vs-britain/). Current restrictions regarding gatherings, leisure, and the wearing of facemasks, are currently more stringent in Denmark than Sweden.\n\nThe rate of new confirmed deaths on a given date is given by the 7-day rolling average of daily new confirmed deaths in the 7 days leading up to and including that date. \n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if the rolling average of daily new confirmed deaths per million, during the week beginning in 26 December 2020 (inclusive) and ending on 1 January 2021 (inclusive), is higher in Sweden than Denmark. \n\nThe question resolves according to the relevant charts on [OurWorldinData.com](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-08-20..2020-10-14&country=DNK~SWE®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_deaths&pickerSort=desc). The chart reports the 7-day rolling average of the daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people. Hence, the question resolves positively if and only if the dot for Sweden for Jan 1st is higher than the dot for Denmark for the same day.\n\nNote: to ensure data integrity on the Our World In Data website, the question will be resolved based on data presented on the site on 1 February 2021.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6zHJIfPxLMxp5ul).**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5366, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033845.943277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033845.943277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5415144670144958 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07959541759616616, 0.0, 0.00020597879790480454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034206620683440256, 0.0, 0.19921478481654079, 0.016729933915469394, 0.0, 1.0958864497895042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.509701675893003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2637769255797986, 0.0, 0.0015320254314408236, 0.0, 0.0, 1.252825143704827, 0.12463609986296723, 0.11985410977259683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07114686876393382, 0.7897477052020827, 0.5627534156349442, 0.5356360517870654, 0.0, 0.0986105754902703, 0.0, 0.015508503843127887, 0.0, 0.27531919021485574, 1.0801240450193519, 0.0, 0.15076326883598595, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8989178681902656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14146005699126069, 0.9072007152933157, 0.00025498252310941446, 0.0, 0.14243907602335792, 0.9365896863552019, 0.2902617101244956, 1.0757027448298493, 0.0, 0.0, 2.78717254336211, 0.0, 0.35765288238787857, 0.0001626670157522502, 0.0, 0.4689049796533877, 0.3764346007736932, 0.46119657186232804, 0.16871685475903522, 0.11306396602090492, 0.4128803682725394, 0.0, 0.00037246101996206123, 0.0, 0.0003102742470409554, 0.1066157616260465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013431910112677775, 0.0, 0.0007033164117141776, 0.0, 0.4665452015625048, 0.06984005733766704, 0.0, 0.009647632172495797, 0.24465083509372756, 0.0, 0.009543144754789498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.213075698156952 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.060517157588414, "coverage": 0.9887402959357422, "baseline_score": 18.399250479872755, "spot_peer_score": 21.40470777053223, "peer_archived_score": 22.060517157588414, "baseline_archived_score": 18.399250479872755, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.40470777053223 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033845.979634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033845.979634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.08816967042124957, 0.9118303295787504 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 172, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6zHJIfPxLMxp5ul).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nIn the beginning months of the COVID-19 crisis, Sweden and Denmark, two Nordic neighbors with extensive shared culture and history, took vastly different approaches to dealing with the pandemic. [While Denmark swiftly enacted lockdowns in March, Sweden only recommended to its citizens to work from home and follow social distancing and hygiene guidelines](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/sweden/articles/covid-sweden-vs-denmark-vs-britain/). Current restrictions regarding gatherings, leisure, and the wearing of facemasks, are currently more stringent in Denmark than Sweden.\n\nThe rate of new confirmed deaths on a given date is given by the 7-day rolling average of daily new confirmed deaths in the 7 days leading up to and including that date. \n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5362, "title": "On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?", "short_title": "Black Lives Matter opposition over 40%?", "url_title": "Black Lives Matter opposition over 40%?", "slug": "black-lives-matter-opposition-over-40", "author_id": 114683, "author_username": "yshemesh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-06T09:58:05.138943Z", "published_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.299464Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-04T18:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-04T18:36:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 159, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5362, "title": "On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?", "created_at": "2020-10-06T09:58:05.138943Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T20:55:08.745316Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T20:55:08.745316Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-04T18:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-04T18:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-04T18:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_9Z7dt19rAqMsSjz).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nBlack Lives Matter is an American social movement that launched on 2013 with a hashtag campaign to protest police brutality towards black people in the United States. The organization has since been central in several protest waves in the US, peaking in mass rallies-turned clashes after the documented killing of George Floyd, an African American man from Minneapolis, by a police officer.\n\nThe popularity of Black Lives Matter has been divided in American public opinion since its founding, its popularity shifting over time in response to current events and political discourse. Support and opposition for the Black Lives Matter movement is measured daily on the [Civiqs survey platform](https://civiqs.com/). As of 14 October 2020, the levels of opposition to Black Lives Matter is 38%. \n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if levels of opposition to Black Lives Matter are higher than 40% according to [Civiqs survey data](https://civiqs.com/results/black_lives_matter?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true). The question resolves negative if opposition is 40% or lower.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_9Z7dt19rAqMsSjz).**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5362, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033725.607903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033725.607903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.39493199705461796 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.5194840448035023, 0.0, 0.014365583790711522, 0.00032654443682826134, 0.04177157975503102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.891677434302122, 0.0, 0.09478106289272219, 0.21893427540614036, 0.09887586822151155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5252637088894498, 0.024201859846705455, 0.0, 3.868608937826673e-05, 0.0, 0.5641422968313914, 4.7074980302278084e-05, 0.004542612186911094, 0.0, 0.017764078167943197, 1.6402233809718632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6767075368370057, 0.0, 2.8788185407549163, 0.3914848833460062, 0.029562189233214672, 1.2062935372419101, 0.6679300673125437, 0.7503255663253725, 0.8218587182891703, 2.010206296996458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23389616223831639, 0.3728286320189139, 0.020722606621530186, 0.7552607636994204, 0.0, 0.31257159562593073, 0.000663476189669931, 0.8528349447816164, 0.004296336147763503, 0.0, 0.32371943405350834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32615096569818114, 0.0571128657486627, 0.10378438219395338, 0.006121415254468945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008235752535017807, 0.9841780317526025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006347553742845056, 0.2652233084416149, 0.4786031430863893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0773322200650898, 0.23042144557140792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7892037688262701, 0.02559781448247464, 0.40461458692222135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48873507532028987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.229808453823645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0097552178501152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030224977292180277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23447654459402598 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.74953432301701, "coverage": 0.9123742377240242, "baseline_score": 26.821948426323214, "spot_peer_score": -0.0463585116002079, "peer_archived_score": 11.74953432301701, "baseline_archived_score": 26.821948426323214, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.0463585116002079 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033725.647167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033725.647167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8839750566311075, 0.11602494336889245 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 259, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_9Z7dt19rAqMsSjz).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nBlack Lives Matter is an American social movement that launched on 2013 with a hashtag campaign to protest police brutality towards black people in the United States. The organization has since been central in several protest waves in the US, peaking in mass rallies-turned clashes after the documented killing of George Floyd, an African American man from Minneapolis, by a police officer.\n\nThe popularity of Black Lives Matter has been divided in American public opinion since its founding, its popularity shifting over time in response to current events and political discourse. Support and opposition for the Black Lives Matter movement is measured daily on the [Civiqs survey platform](https://civiqs.com/). As of 14 October 2020, the levels of opposition to Black Lives Matter is 38%. \n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5361, "title": "By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?", "short_title": "Recovery of Consumer Confidence in the US", "url_title": "Recovery of Consumer Confidence in the US", "slug": "recovery-of-consumer-confidence-in-the-us", "author_id": 114683, "author_username": "yshemesh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-06T09:15:53.393129Z", "published_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.303424Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-14T14:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-14T14:35:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5361, "title": "By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?", "created_at": "2020-10-06T09:15:53.393129Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T21:29:08.479060Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T21:29:08.479060Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-14T14:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-14T14:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-14T14:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_4TxNlPRnYXX0n3f).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nConsumer confidence is an important economic indicator, reflecting consumers' optimism regarding the state of the economy and the outlook for their personal financial future. The indicator is tied to people's propensity to spend and save in the near-term. The [OECD publishes a Consumer Confidence Indicator on monthly basis](https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm#indicator-chart). Values over 100 indicate economic optimism, while values under 100 represent pessimism. \n\nIn January 2020, the CCI in the US was set at 101.57. In the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic and government restrictions in March-April 2020, consumer confidence in the US took a plunge. Since then the index has been on rise, but has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels. \n\nThis question asks:\n\n***For the month of January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?***\n\nThe question resolves positively if the Consumer Confidence Index in the US in January 2021 is higher than 100, as measured by the OECD Consumer Confidence indicator. It resolves negatively if the indicator is equal to or lower than 100. The question resolves when data from the OECD for January 2021 become available.\n\nNote, given that the CCI is normalised periodically, the CCI figure of 101.13 for February 2020 may be subject to revisions.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_4TxNlPRnYXX0n3f).***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5361, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033937.262531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033937.262531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.28527841830179645 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0565353517722018, 0.5582182610422414, 0.0, 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5360, "title": "Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?", "created_at": "2020-10-06T09:12:44.481243Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T21:39:53.945800Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T21:39:53.945800Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T20:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T20:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-31T20:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_1OnylmZcGFduNZH).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\n[S&P 500 Index](https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500) (Ticker SPX) is large-cap U.S. equities price index that covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization. It covers 500 large public companies listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.\n\nThe S&P 500 Index closed at 3,230.78 in 2019.\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively in the event that the value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 3,230.78 points, and resolves negatively if the index value is equal to or lower than 3,230.78 points in the last day close of 2020.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_1OnylmZcGFduNZH).**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5360, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033708.987265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033708.987265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6288514720070493 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.326660778923309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3466636295892974, 0.0, 0.5357283290347786, 0.0, 0.0013819422256428275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.908108442401943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030286078133061403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032044375942634484, 0.14476842475009769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.548608251713357, 0.052444674384558125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005989631098310488, 0.3289434288765548, 0.0, 0.09264746989081286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28987905360495075, 1.0519208286124229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4438959085104952, 0.719766801717585, 0.153529121344744, 0.06475366618986314, 0.21045185030486618, 0.01676218685428975, 0.008977310862137065, 0.11646926082073461, 0.49170419778302665, 0.7852729453326951, 3.2368925510603868, 1.1044339984539073, 0.33159005549989273, 0.047112849102404264, 0.33213884326336374, 3.41030628282971, 1.0019380645168494, 0.009363510535764615, 1.1139993871704308, 0.38423884172774125, 0.05800260954370923, 0.00687159674027567, 0.02287560698733605, 0.04001926055860787, 0.0, 0.8231254352382595, 0.0, 0.005295780514454561, 0.12469590820096257, 0.0, 0.6334001169953287, 0.0, 0.07233904086463648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07317302848441778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6215697072607393 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.667836827234948, "coverage": 0.9115633304609227, "baseline_score": 52.44676659698201, "spot_peer_score": 2.5683742216426455, "peer_archived_score": 8.667836827234948, "baseline_archived_score": 52.44676659698201, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.5683742216426455 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033709.026019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033709.026019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.049453311890542806, 0.9505466881094572 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 236, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_1OnylmZcGFduNZH).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\n[S&P 500 Index](https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500) (Ticker SPX) is large-cap U.S. equities price index that covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization. It covers 500 large public companies listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.\n\nThe S&P 500 Index closed at 3,230.78 in 2019.\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5359, "title": "Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?", "short_title": "Higher turnout in 2020 US elections?", "url_title": "Higher turnout in 2020 US elections?", "slug": "higher-turnout-in-2020-us-elections", "author_id": 114683, "author_username": "yshemesh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-06T09:10:19.799132Z", "published_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.219851Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 40, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-13T15:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-13T15:49:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 150, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5359, "title": "Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?", "created_at": "2020-10-06T09:10:19.799132Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T21:48:55.918300Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T21:48:55.918300Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-13T15:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-13T15:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-13T15:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_b1Pio1Z3v2WqWy1).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\n\nThe 59th presidential election for the United States of America will be held on November 3, 2020. Voter turnout is uncertain, in part because of the likely influence of the ongoing pandemic, but also with regard to concerns around [potential voter suppression](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/09/georgia-election-primary-long-lines-broken-voting-machines) and the efficacy of [voting by mail](https://www.npr.org/2020/06/04/864899178/why-is-voting-by-mail-suddenly-controversial-heres-what-you-need-to-know).\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution will be by credible media reports. In the case of disagreement between different media outlets, the turnout calculated by the Federal Election Commission in its report on Federal Elections in 2020 will be used. See [here](https://transition.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2016/federalelections2016.pdf) for a copy of the 2016 report.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_b1Pio1Z3v2WqWy1).**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5359, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033755.662845, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033755.662845, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8185182661164333 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.18054143675187906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02063331144931306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021033880252657577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0064974456061511875, 6.761387105445791e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001256174420081621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9599317429112375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3663824856240447, 1.4103524441748694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024638501236726867, 0.12265000798949764, 0.019690464215121245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007119885601290271, 1.2879864588413867, 0.000643576775788986, 0.0, 0.04341218422471655, 0.0, 2.4143549315182558, 0.05114263111526438, 0.0, 0.5559140579606875, 0.02189933647115334, 1.2646983076977072, 0.0001532642351907775, 0.0, 0.18929597762773226, 0.6885918065348874, 1.7345528830923804, 0.9572031499706801, 0.7181524359699365, 0.013607484841021318, 0.1352679100844646, 0.8593503211028601, 0.3412527382828336, 1.5749055123646631, 0.0013732233884828399, 0.20391510842466132, 0.14799890024094142, 0.5007659387792158, 0.3349869714620936, 0.4092248878717828, 4.432198398807364 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.292484136638612, "coverage": 0.911487879467699, "baseline_score": 70.41318887426434, "spot_peer_score": 25.52736398793658, "peer_archived_score": 9.292484136638612, "baseline_archived_score": 70.41318887426434, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.52736398793658 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033755.702117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033755.702117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.057213139436617655, 0.9427868605633823 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 251, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_b1Pio1Z3v2WqWy1).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\n\nThe 59th presidential election for the United States of America will be held on November 3, 2020. Voter turnout is uncertain, in part because of the likely influence of the ongoing pandemic, but also with regard to concerns around [potential voter suppression](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/09/georgia-election-primary-long-lines-broken-voting-machines) and the efficacy of [voting by mail](https://www.npr.org/2020/06/04/864899178/why-is-voting-by-mail-suddenly-controversial-heres-what-you-need-to-know).\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5358, "title": "Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?", "short_title": "10M vaccinated to COVID-19 by March?", "url_title": "10M vaccinated to COVID-19 by March?", "slug": "10m-vaccinated-to-covid-19-by-march", "author_id": 114683, "author_username": "yshemesh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-06T09:06:06.007246Z", "published_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.721066Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-28T22:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-28T22:36:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 136, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5358, "title": "Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?", "created_at": "2020-10-06T09:06:06.007246Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T21:22:57.878515Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T21:22:57.878515Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-28T22:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-28T22:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-28T22:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_9uvP9Y1ohUExxYN).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nThe severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\n\nAs of 22 September 2020, [the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting that it is tracking the development of thirty-eight SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines under clinical evaluation](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/novel-coronavirus-landscape-covid-19-(5).pdf?sfvrsn=ba27da1f_3&download=true). There is an urgent need to determine when the first of these candidates will have been found to have a high degree of efficacy and will have been administered to a significant number of people.\n\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\n\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if by the 1st of March 2021 a credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 10 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. It resolves negatively if by this date, there is no such credible report.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_9uvP9Y1ohUExxYN).**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5358, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604032689.823485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604032689.823485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.3078577141583139 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.5171942726650227, 0.0, 0.12987488868475316, 0.025683570036994337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8413239503101517, 0.30918505186465134, 0.0, 2.7617295361143066, 0.0, 0.06603093862868202, 0.0, 0.7059609951303407, 0.28964667479336637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5398074524735068, 0.0, 1.0183606384039368, 0.47832677525655826, 0.0, 0.06336825431145146, 0.2947589778634893, 1.7055526913548125, 0.0, 0.4472953729636787, 0.16759727308631908, 0.0, 1.1495243418659191, 0.0001214324425006784, 0.3359287242923449, 0.36145594936144276, 0.1897773398241655, 0.677202722767156, 0.772876171169054, 1.0404655610909188, 0.13288741291483216, 0.0, 1.1318741843526294, 0.1077520356714806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35655295643184876, 0.03138425968392372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4928981889327371, 0.22024554869721588, 0.0006735119318073969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04139130245153491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2602572669574899, 0.1405392332463639, 0.0, 0.012502909516856476, 0.0, 0.19948261913663304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034899599455041425, 0.0, 0.9228644866309713, 0.6530728481450289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00488910941910781, 0.8786741151626384, 0.0, 0.0, 9.979284736472126e-05, 0.03712045890537198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14571295311314966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13256677031734654 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.791509940231133, "coverage": 0.9112819932428833, "baseline_score": -55.995337381767, "spot_peer_score": 66.13977945836616, "peer_archived_score": 22.791509940231133, "baseline_archived_score": -55.995337381767, "spot_peer_archived_score": 66.13977945836616 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604032689.870009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604032689.870009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8844787312827886, 0.1155212687172114 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 205, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_9uvP9Y1ohUExxYN).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nThe severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\n\nAs of 22 September 2020, [the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting that it is tracking the development of thirty-eight SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines under clinical evaluation](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/novel-coronavirus-landscape-covid-19-(5).pdf?sfvrsn=ba27da1f_3&download=true). There is an urgent need to determine when the first of these candidates will have been found to have a high degree of efficacy and will have been administered to a significant number of people.\n\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\n\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5357, "title": "By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?", "short_title": "Israel-Saudi peace/normalization agreement?", "url_title": "Israel-Saudi peace/normalization agreement?", "slug": "israel-saudi-peacenormalization-agreement", "author_id": 114683, "author_username": "yshemesh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-06T09:01:55.424150Z", "published_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.367081Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-01T18:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-01T18:17:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 128, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5357, "title": "By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?", "created_at": "2020-10-06T09:01:55.424150Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T23:08:12.490339Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T23:08:12.490339Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-01T18:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-01T18:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-03-01T18:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_9YUeHgqqcT8d2bb).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\nOn 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries. The signing came after a quarter century where no such agreement had been reached between Israel and any other Arab state.\n\nSince the signing, US president Donald Trump has [suggested ](https://www.barrons.com/news/trump-says-peace-deals-close-between-israel-and-five-or-six-other-countries-01600188005)more Arab countries will soon normalize ties with Israel. \n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if both sides issue an official statement announcing that formal ties will be established between the two countries. It resolves negatively if neither side, or only one side, has done so.\n\n----\n\n***To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_9YUeHgqqcT8d2bb).**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5357, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033742.512821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033742.512821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.3493260109632695 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9003860151370718, 0.07085672065160911, 0.3458194492378291, 0.6370367022106979, 0.935587901235163, 0.03207428613094678, 0.0011260457444413141, 0.000586859480427528, 0.012456592617529228, 1.2045396608170842, 0.0008493257047191687, 0.37829082944876835, 0.37922405812316246, 1.4237083948996565, 0.45936757774272785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001999838232602956, 0.016529544093884904, 0.33147332096613535, 0.05910574656195615, 0.7347917039258289, 0.03113859814631712, 0.5699767100517588, 0.8133367144185244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47250401529887065, 0.18989170997762023, 0.0, 0.018963498661181577, 0.28256889617506814, 0.017710482028186387, 0.006290526543366298, 0.24292738589391757, 0.2688212821009001, 0.8392199693361295, 2.349397370011334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41752870186414237, 0.002868841670032651, 0.43796336341155345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1885726393075556, 1.8075676172203619, 0.0, 0.005803497673608363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6821801982010711, 0.0546951145932695, 0.0, 0.04571275976037351, 0.010969282448062724, 0.10149626318931794, 0.8980917170649189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.001811303551022, 0.0, 0.0013290475260089698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42286099234303715, 0.0, 0.10452558961591647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9150868147831793, 0.0034934892766462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.997707261524813, "coverage": 0.9114837716006366, "baseline_score": 55.73338381865307, "spot_peer_score": -4.111466078041658, "peer_archived_score": 7.997707261524813, "baseline_archived_score": 55.73338381865307, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.111466078041658 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033742.574648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033742.574648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3410251377335418, 0.6589748622664582 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 224, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_9YUeHgqqcT8d2bb).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\nOn 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries. The signing came after a quarter century where no such agreement had been reached between Israel and any other Arab state.\n\nSince the signing, US president Donald Trump has [suggested ](https://www.barrons.com/news/trump-says-peace-deals-close-between-israel-and-five-or-six-other-countries-01600188005)more Arab countries will soon normalize ties with Israel. \n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5356, "title": "Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?", "short_title": "US election conceded by 17 November 2020?", "url_title": "US election conceded by 17 November 2020?", "slug": "us-election-conceded-by-17-november-2020", "author_id": 114683, "author_username": "yshemesh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-06T08:52:12.405700Z", "published_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.705612Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-24T12:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-24T12:57:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 226, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2951, "type": "question_series", "name": "20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-26T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.964452Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:27.557444Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5356, "title": "Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?", "created_at": "2020-10-06T08:52:12.405700Z", "open_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-20T21:08:16.140415Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-20T21:08:16.140415Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-24T12:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-24T12:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-24T12:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_dgwbHI1war1GEeh).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nThere are [growing concerns](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/6/3/21257133/trump-2020-election-meltdown-lawrence-douglas) in the United States that, if he loses the elections, President Donald Trump will not concede and leave office. Trump has publicly [declined to commit](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/transcript-fox-news-sunday-interview-with-president-trump) to accepting the election results. Previous Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has advised Democratic candidate Joe Biden that, if initial results are close, he should not concede on election night, November 3rd. \n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, at any time between 2020-11-03 (Election Day) and 2020-11-17, either candidate concede that he has lost the 2020 US Presidential Election. They may do this in any venue so long as it is public (e.g. a Tweet will suffice). They may do so using any phrasing (so long as it is sufficiently clear that they have accepted that they will not legally be President on 2021-01-21). This question resolves negatively on 2020-11-17 if neither candidate has done so.\n\n----\n\nTo participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the [dedicated survey linked here](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_dgwbHI1war1GEeh)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5356, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033628.013894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033628.013894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.5869030635349131 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9068283040359071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037377073750699714, 0.4721589832046767, 0.9355068310373802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4103443427873574, 0.07860653963254827, 0.002267619971159462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004933036154008631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.55316210080565, 0.0004919675045689729, 0.08181192265783327, 0.0, 0.01617021573601548, 1.5039601328708354, 0.12118361611513624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13845687846720292, 0.0, 0.025372209920531925, 0.0007295762276392632, 0.0007776076208726666, 0.002677523980905237, 0.0, 0.10303690452208528, 0.0, 0.5242420318617942, 0.1181574555093623, 0.0, 0.00022485680116002038, 0.0, 0.0014329571911999657, 0.33499081833365685, 0.1060070521178436, 0.8179947142628845, 0.0, 0.0, 1.259167518521629, 0.39591315445647796, 0.02534001709912419, 0.30823588836546717, 0.0, 0.6768809229443703, 0.3197130529019151, 0.012831811414954496, 0.0, 0.47257954008438524, 1.5650396816440573, 0.894306628588739, 0.0, 0.6231437676598234, 0.2535373655127201, 0.3678397817055987, 0.3650259598969105, 0.034434240119635286, 0.23173690825207977, 0.0899371485890657, 2.449461118364984, 0.0, 0.5818237141889918, 0.0, 0.0011985143684651786, 0.5418782407480482, 0.0, 0.2224581643406349, 0.01655614160913566, 0.2147474819389506, 0.21897986434485237, 0.12595863695954365, 0.7936753265602773, 0.17882404648899866, 0.0, 1.5762120177515642, 0.14701927613387591, 0.0, 0.9690018194699944, 0.09827173213282944, 2.5934088443351544, 0.0, 0.004826118400939857, 0.0, 0.0002610062002314625, 0.5953663718281323, 0.017715835499701012, 0.05453346520004618, 0.0009935128115897683, 1.008630101858921 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.791654447922678, "coverage": 0.9124293852542077, "baseline_score": -52.3868050175948, "spot_peer_score": 22.919262774748564, "peer_archived_score": 23.791654447922678, "baseline_archived_score": -52.3868050175948, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.919262774748564 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604033628.084796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604033628.084796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.13241529254531625, 0.8675847074546837 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 457, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need [to fill out this survey](https://bgupsych.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_dgwbHI1war1GEeh).*** \n\n***Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions [in this list](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--2020insight). Read more [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5336/the-2020-insight-forecasting-contest/).***\n\n-----\n\nThere are [growing concerns](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/6/3/21257133/trump-2020-election-meltdown-lawrence-douglas) in the United States that, if he loses the elections, President Donald Trump will not concede and leave office. Trump has publicly [declined to commit](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/transcript-fox-news-sunday-interview-with-president-trump) to accepting the election results. Previous Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has advised Democratic candidate Joe Biden that, if initial results are close, he should not concede on election night, November 3rd. \n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5354, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?", "short_title": "Warsaw a red pandemic zone before Oct 24th", "url_title": "Warsaw a red pandemic zone before Oct 24th", "slug": "warsaw-a-red-pandemic-zone-before-oct-24th", "author_id": 110217, "author_username": "michal_dubrawski", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-05T21:14:57.827793Z", "published_at": "2020-10-12T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.544298Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-12T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-15T03:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-15T03:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-15T03:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-15T03:46:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-12T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5354, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?", "created_at": "2020-10-05T21:14:57.827793Z", "open_time": "2020-10-12T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-13T16:45:54.991144Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-13T16:45:54.991144Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-15T03:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-15T03:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-10-15T03:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-15T03:46:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-15T03:46:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On the 6th of August 2020, the Government of Poland introduced three kinds of epidemic zones (or \"areas\" as the government [website](https://www.gov.pl/web/coronavirus/temporary-limitations) calls them). Each district's classification depends on the number of infections its has at the time. The list is based on analyses of the dynamics of infection increases in the last 14 days.\n\n* red zones - broad restrictions \n\n* yellow zones - less severe restrictions \n\n* green zones - least severe restrictions \n\nThe pandemic situation in Poland is becoming more and more serious recently with a new record of daily number of confirmed cases reported and [more then 130 000 confirmed cases in total](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/number-of-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-in-poland-reaches-130210-16589).\n\nOn Thursday the 1st of October, the capital city of Warsaw was announced by the government Ministry of Health as one of 17 districts on the list of those at risk of becoming yellow zones. At that time out of a total of 380 districts in Poland there were [17 districts with red zone status, and 34 with yellow](https://tvn24.pl/tvn24-news-in-english/poland-updates-map-of-coronavirus-restrictions-51-counties-marked-4709290).\n\n>Kraska also said, from the next week on, the criteria of assigning cities and counties to yellow and red zones would be tightened. (...) He added that this correction rate was unfavorable for big cities, as due to high number of residents they were much more likely to be marked yellow or red.\n\nA week later, on Thursday the 8th of October Government [announced](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/yellow-zone-status-to-be-applied-to-whole-of-the-country-as-over-4000-new-coronavirus-cases-recorded-in-one-day-16494) that 38 districts are in red zone and all the rest of them inluding Warsaw are now in yellow zone.\n \n[This article](https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/Warszawa/Koronawirus-Warszawa-w-czerwonej-strefie-Wszystko-na-to-wskazuje) which unfortunately is available only in Polish says:\n\n>On October 11, 2,392 cases of coronavirus were recorded in Warsaw in the last two weeks. Whether a given region is in the red zone is determined by the number of new coronavirus infections (12 positive tests per 10,000 inhabitants over two weeks). In the case of Warsaw, the required number is 2,132 new cases over 14 days. On Sunday there were already 2,392 of them.\n\n***Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?***\n\nFor the question to resolve positively the Warsaw district (Warszawa) should be announced as red zone by the government of Poland and the change of the classification must become effective (law has to come to effect, which would mean that increased restrictions must be introduced) before October 24th [Central Eastern Time (UTC +2)](https://www.timeanddate.com/time/zone/poland). Typically there is a two day period between the announcement of the status change and the law coming to effect. \n\nIn case of the unlikely event that Warsaw becomes red zone and still regain its yellow or green zone status before the 24th of October this question would still be resolved positively.\n\n**The question shall be retroactively closed 12 hours before the official announcement.**\n\n[This](https://www.gov.pl/web/koronawirus/powiaty-z-restrykcjami) is the government website that lists current red districts (under \"Obszary zakwalifikowane jako czerwone (od 10.10.2020)\").\n\nAnnouncements are also made by the [twitter of the Ministry of Health](https://twitter.com/MZ_GOV_PL?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5354, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1602791094.885347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. 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Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\n\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 longbets.com bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5344, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758490127.662099, "end_time": 1764758221.991464, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.117 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758490127.662099, "end_time": 1764758221.991464, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.117 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.883, 0.117 ], "means": [ 0.14986572812059057 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9391819328792491, 2.6705586429839707, 0.6809768999841327, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.34239276344906866, 0.24194759245689523, 0.0, 0.12444141738618236, 0.31843229548924823, 0.0, 1.3634453708289027, 0.7756659660559864, 0.09636761825031542, 0.3148990381410638, 0.0, 1.1093585720295902, 0.8338251721301533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0450032524825526, 0.7651731657282734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4238085217584686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966738672323336, 0.0, 0.06602214448617946, 0.0, 0.007925084159090202, 0.0, 0.4868057477542032, 0.003138745684197452, 0.054969296976803916, 0.0, 0.060576540743882155, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.8271656314925541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001896113161810545, 0.10482768695740607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038854741463503957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08784023401054611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013798417812875229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290030.561477, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290030.561477, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9551098485273047, 0.04489015147269527 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\n\n> roughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) *cm*. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\n\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 longbets.com bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize." }, { "id": 5343, "title": "Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?", "short_title": "§ 4 of 25th Amendment invoked before Nov 3?", "url_title": "§ 4 of 25th Amendment invoked before Nov 3?", "slug": "4-of-25th-amendment-invoked-before-nov-3", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-03T04:03:25.872077Z", "published_at": "2020-10-03T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.537954Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-03T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", 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"normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5343, "title": "Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?", "created_at": "2020-10-03T04:03:25.872077Z", "open_time": "2020-10-03T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-03T20:51:59.389501Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-03T20:51:59.389501Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-03T09:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to [the Constitution of the United States](https://constitutioncenter.org/media/files/constitution.pdf) (PDF) states the following;\n\n\n>Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the\nprincipal officers of the executive departments or of such\nother body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the\nPresident pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the\nHouse of Representatives their written declaration that the\nPresident is unable to discharge the powers and duties of\nhis office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the\npowers and duties of the office as Acting President. \n\n>Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President\npro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of\nRepresentatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal\nofficers of the executive department or of such other body\nas Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days\nto the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker\nof the House of Representatives their written declaration\nthat the President is unable to discharge the powers and\nduties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the\nissue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose\nif not in session.\n\n>If the Congress, within twenty-one days\nafter receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress\nis not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is\nrequired to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both\nHouses that the President is unable to discharge the powers\nand duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to\ndischarge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office. \n\n\n\nOn October 1, 2020, President Donald Trump tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus which causes COVID-19. On October 2, [President Trump was hospitalized](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-tests-positive-coronavirus-covid-mike-pence-joe-biden-us-politics-live-latest-news) in Maryland. Since Trump's positive test was announced, there has been speculation that he may be incapacitated, necessitating a transfer of powers to the vice president.", "resolution_criteria": "For a positive resolution, before November 3 2020 it must be announced by the White House or reported by the New York Times or Washington Post that President Trump has been relieved of his duties as president and the vice president has become Acting President under the terms of section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. A removal from office of any other sort, or a transfer of power under any other section of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, or any transfer of power not expressly made in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution, does not count for this question.\n\nNote that this has never happened before, [but has previously been considered.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_4)\n\nThis question resolves positively if Trump is removed from office for any period of time under this section, regardless of whether he is later reinstated as president.\n\n# Related Questions\n\n- [Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5342/s3-of-25th-amendment-triggered-before-nov-3/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5343, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604186134.643069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604186134.643069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.017637172816223318 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 16.42740020274119, 0.9598794435783802, 0.003961524713566476, 0.2165437122422032, 1.2552451754753036, 9.944237270650903e-05, 0.0, 0.00028001816834561364, 0.0063304658603344135, 0.8730403647711806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003407387505689599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015773797300347576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001786385954838424, 0.0, 0.001571554573930107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005711445930730812, 0.0018898706919780247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022620297659610504, 0.0, 0.00013664899431769823, 0.0, 0.0007723720472053874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.76872003485082, "coverage": 0.9999968608743782, "baseline_score": 95.26009727629622, "spot_peer_score": -18.932729412458244, "peer_archived_score": 9.76872003485082, "baseline_archived_score": 95.26009727629622, "spot_peer_archived_score": -18.932729412458244 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604186134.674733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604186134.674733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.990878552829476, 0.009121447170524035 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 305, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to [the Constitution of the United States](https://constitutioncenter.org/media/files/constitution.pdf) (PDF) states the following;\n\n\n>Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the\nprincipal officers of the executive departments or of such\nother body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the\nPresident pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the\nHouse of Representatives their written declaration that the\nPresident is unable to discharge the powers and duties of\nhis office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the\npowers and duties of the office as Acting President. \n\n>Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President\npro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of\nRepresentatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal\nofficers of the executive department or of such other body\nas Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days\nto the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker\nof the House of Representatives their written declaration\nthat the President is unable to discharge the powers and\nduties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the\nissue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose\nif not in session.\n\n>If the Congress, within twenty-one days\nafter receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress\nis not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is\nrequired to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both\nHouses that the President is unable to discharge the powers\nand duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to\ndischarge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office. \n\n\n\nOn October 1, 2020, President Donald Trump tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus which causes COVID-19. On October 2, [President Trump was hospitalized](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-tests-positive-coronavirus-covid-mike-pence-joe-biden-us-politics-live-latest-news) in Maryland. Since Trump's positive test was announced, there has been speculation that he may be incapacitated, necessitating a transfer of powers to the vice president." } ] }
\n\nHowever](http://2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)%5Cn%5CnHowever){kind=link}