Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5220
{ "count": 6408, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5240", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5200", "results": [ { "id": 5343, "title": "Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?", "short_title": "§ 4 of 25th Amendment invoked before Nov 3?", "url_title": "§ 4 of 25th Amendment invoked before Nov 3?", "slug": "4-of-25th-amendment-invoked-before-nov-3", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-03T04:03:25.872077Z", "published_at": "2020-10-03T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.537954Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-03T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:07:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-03T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5343, "title": "Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?", "created_at": "2020-10-03T04:03:25.872077Z", "open_time": "2020-10-03T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-03T20:51:59.389501Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-03T20:51:59.389501Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-03T09:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to [the Constitution of the United States](https://constitutioncenter.org/media/files/constitution.pdf) (PDF) states the following;\n\n\n>Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the\nprincipal officers of the executive departments or of such\nother body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the\nPresident pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the\nHouse of Representatives their written declaration that the\nPresident is unable to discharge the powers and duties of\nhis office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the\npowers and duties of the office as Acting President. \n\n>Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President\npro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of\nRepresentatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal\nofficers of the executive department or of such other body\nas Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days\nto the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker\nof the House of Representatives their written declaration\nthat the President is unable to discharge the powers and\nduties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the\nissue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose\nif not in session.\n\n>If the Congress, within twenty-one days\nafter receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress\nis not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is\nrequired to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both\nHouses that the President is unable to discharge the powers\nand duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to\ndischarge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office. \n\n\n\nOn October 1, 2020, President Donald Trump tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus which causes COVID-19. On October 2, [President Trump was hospitalized](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-tests-positive-coronavirus-covid-mike-pence-joe-biden-us-politics-live-latest-news) in Maryland. Since Trump's positive test was announced, there has been speculation that he may be incapacitated, necessitating a transfer of powers to the vice president.", "resolution_criteria": "For a positive resolution, before November 3 2020 it must be announced by the White House or reported by the New York Times or Washington Post that President Trump has been relieved of his duties as president and the vice president has become Acting President under the terms of section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. A removal from office of any other sort, or a transfer of power under any other section of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, or any transfer of power not expressly made in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution, does not count for this question.\n\nNote that this has never happened before, [but has previously been considered.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_4)\n\nThis question resolves positively if Trump is removed from office for any period of time under this section, regardless of whether he is later reinstated as president.\n\n# Related Questions\n\n- [Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5342/s3-of-25th-amendment-triggered-before-nov-3/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5343, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604186134.643069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604186134.643069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.017637172816223318 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 16.42740020274119, 0.9598794435783802, 0.003961524713566476, 0.2165437122422032, 1.2552451754753036, 9.944237270650903e-05, 0.0, 0.00028001816834561364, 0.0063304658603344135, 0.8730403647711806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003407387505689599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015773797300347576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001786385954838424, 0.0, 0.001571554573930107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005711445930730812, 0.0018898706919780247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022620297659610504, 0.0, 0.00013664899431769823, 0.0, 0.0007723720472053874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.76872003485082, "coverage": 0.9999968608743782, "baseline_score": 95.26009727629622, "spot_peer_score": -18.932729412458244, "peer_archived_score": 9.76872003485082, "baseline_archived_score": 95.26009727629622, "spot_peer_archived_score": -18.932729412458244 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604186134.674733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604186134.674733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.990878552829476, 0.009121447170524035 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 305, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to [the Constitution of the United States](https://constitutioncenter.org/media/files/constitution.pdf) (PDF) states the following;\n\n\n>Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the\nprincipal officers of the executive departments or of such\nother body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the\nPresident pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the\nHouse of Representatives their written declaration that the\nPresident is unable to discharge the powers and duties of\nhis office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the\npowers and duties of the office as Acting President. \n\n>Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President\npro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of\nRepresentatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal\nofficers of the executive department or of such other body\nas Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days\nto the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker\nof the House of Representatives their written declaration\nthat the President is unable to discharge the powers and\nduties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the\nissue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose\nif not in session.\n\n>If the Congress, within twenty-one days\nafter receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress\nis not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is\nrequired to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both\nHouses that the President is unable to discharge the powers\nand duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to\ndischarge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office. \n\n\n\nOn October 1, 2020, President Donald Trump tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus which causes COVID-19. On October 2, [President Trump was hospitalized](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-tests-positive-coronavirus-covid-mike-pence-joe-biden-us-politics-live-latest-news) in Maryland. Since Trump's positive test was announced, there has been speculation that he may be incapacitated, necessitating a transfer of powers to the vice president." }, { "id": 5342, "title": "Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?", "short_title": "§ 3 of 25th Amendment triggered before Nov 3?", "url_title": "§ 3 of 25th Amendment triggered before Nov 3?", "slug": "3-of-25th-amendment-triggered-before-nov-3", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-10-03T03:56:53.015909Z", "published_at": "2020-10-03T19:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.966035Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-03T19:14:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:08:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-03T19:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 128, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5342, "title": "Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?", "created_at": "2020-10-03T03:56:53.015909Z", "open_time": "2020-10-03T19:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-03T22:42:19.906528Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-03T22:42:19.906528Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-03T09:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Section three of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to [the Constitution of the United States](https://constitutioncenter.org/media/files/constitution.pdf) (PDF) states the following;\n\n>Whenever the President transmits to the President pro\ntempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of\nRepresentatives his written declaration that he is unable\nto discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until\nhe transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary,\nsuch powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice\nPresident as Acting President. \n\nOn October 1, 2020, President Donald Trump tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus which causes COVID-19. On October 2, [President Trump was hospitalized](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-tests-positive-coronavirus-covid-mike-pence-joe-biden-us-politics-live-latest-news) in Maryland. Since Trump's positive test was announced, there has been speculation that he may be incapacitated, necessitating a transfer of powers to the vice president.", "resolution_criteria": "For a positive resolution, before November 3 2020 it must be announced by the White House or reported by the New York Times or Washington Post that President Trump has transferred presidential powers to Mike Pence under the terms of section three of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. A transfer under any other section of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, or any transfer of power not expressly made in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution, does not count for this question. \n\n[Note that this has happened on only two prior occasions; in 2002, and again in 2007.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Acting_Presidents)\n\nThis question resolves positively if power is transferred for any period of time under this section, regardless of whether Trump later reclaims his powers.\n\n# Related Questions\n\n- [Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5343/trump-removed-from-office-before-nov-3/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5342, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604186120.938952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604186120.938952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.026350387388010748 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 13.77457940644138, 2.794815861520038, 1.0234001974730635, 0.42330289165412505, 1.1350948554755882, 0.0163029148093347, 0.0029454724652206122, 0.5636557004277021, 0.0016372635244738653, 0.1701174645068003, 0.24430991498675741, 0.002203835392502228, 0.0002883225212909778, 0.0, 0.7655422628078697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.017949372969042e-05, 0.004527303747639438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033644236257094836, 0.20238359482008178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00443494685680625, 0.0, 0.0007536346372580524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.31751817584021e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011419072040023296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002451332791050539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.844000866350687, "coverage": 0.999955049610472, "baseline_score": 94.46376580754465, "spot_peer_score": 1.9092933089045907, "peer_archived_score": 6.844000866350687, "baseline_archived_score": 94.46376580754465, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.9092933089045907 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604186120.994204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604186120.994204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9890203538395167, 0.010979646160483266 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 378, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Section three of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to [the Constitution of the United States](https://constitutioncenter.org/media/files/constitution.pdf) (PDF) states the following;\n\n>Whenever the President transmits to the President pro\ntempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of\nRepresentatives his written declaration that he is unable\nto discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until\nhe transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary,\nsuch powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice\nPresident as Acting President. \n\nOn October 1, 2020, President Donald Trump tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus which causes COVID-19. On October 2, [President Trump was hospitalized](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-tests-positive-coronavirus-covid-mike-pence-joe-biden-us-politics-live-latest-news) in Maryland. Since Trump's positive test was announced, there has been speculation that he may be incapacitated, necessitating a transfer of powers to the vice president." }, { "id": 5320, "title": "Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?", "short_title": "Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?", "url_title": "Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?", "slug": "chinese-control-of-half-of-taiwan-by-2050", "author_id": 112112, "author_username": "michaelchen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-30T16:07:48.250813Z", "published_at": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T21:06:44.712048Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 202, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1060, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T13:07:36.624352Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T13:07:36.624352Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "topic": [ { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5320, "title": "Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?", "created_at": "2020-09-30T16:07:48.250813Z", "open_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-11T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\n\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the following occur between January 1, 2020 and January 1, 2050:\n\n- There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\" as of October 2020) of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data.\n- There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.\n- There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC and citing evidence that the government of the majority of the ROC is de facto controlled by China, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. Articles which, in the judgment of Metaculus, are hyperbole or otherwise do not make a strong case that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC will not count.", "fine_print": "A peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan would result in this question resolving Yes.\n\nArticles must be written and published by different sources and must reach their conclusions largely independently, publishing the same article at a separate news outlet or several news outlets reporting statements made by the same individual or group of individuals will not count as separate articles.", "post_id": 5320, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763586394.112428, "end_time": 1771829756.802845, "forecaster_count": 970, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763586394.112428, "end_time": 1771829756.802845, "forecaster_count": 970, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5528762415760997 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.1512274689031804, 0.6169524251008732, 5.4675546441526686e-05, 0.008703191862082729, 7.23033409863723e-05, 0.19175616919265243, 0.0066325662119691205, 0.04271609066780535, 0.9860975228832445, 0.0077763298649062675, 0.27814821534564155, 0.0055176436829706445, 0.001203956532586157, 0.010254030964561437, 2.627264001969681e-11, 1.079616422372164, 0.6677466813724638, 0.1864780854919439, 0.652179595863953, 0.0064919980487116585, 2.1063646154906603, 0.010510806041914596, 0.5918928604337957, 0.512292944453745, 0.22874023658758263, 1.6395815189985408, 0.04430845190802145, 0.39391003396284063, 0.3773274013546043, 0.0, 0.8577111227822516, 0.011884523507818838, 0.2633930656710608, 1.1965166820067419, 0.6287008457942085, 1.560439306753111, 0.08583122686450655, 0.5443837886951755, 0.11844607201696788, 0.2225778520986586, 2.408433488969347, 0.3674564539694246, 1.4813968949582859, 0.31014916901641076, 0.3078401872971808, 0.9036433712446648, 1.0958637063735523, 0.23993879236129007, 0.7245953723030576, 0.0035641312737902113, 3.2292727081181822, 0.8759153897969698, 0.3372501739266839, 6.059921132099147e-08, 0.03430613951368615, 0.6543523934817415, 1.7068222300790676, 0.00046225255241901984, 0.0, 0.009060427766463581, 3.3943529437288946, 0.04822033985928262, 0.6064775447076519, 0.48902136690066356, 2.262006302448322e-07, 1.0830680918190527, 2.2676136006790424, 0.03818364469380976, 0.4815055185385519, 1.24876747130219e-07, 4.618363448235778, 1.798873112675518e-06, 2.143011827258174, 0.5089858639310508, 0.5157263821009046, 2.2959699787999748, 0.00010209125105895288, 1.0146807670767663e-05, 0.908052262788158, 0.00039700514515351277, 1.6239121858895014, 0.394974879637399, 2.646591660064781e-07, 0.0, 3.3801650652011e-06, 1.6097912682843654, 0.43179027839946, 0.0, 0.0, 7.052838611328795e-07, 0.6376797389709332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011213391020660237, 0.0, 0.12982620817880147, 0.10740393968838573, 7.960615540747985e-08, 0.5579926856043782, 4.912660607454726 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289696.310916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 935, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289696.310916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 935, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7380567499334207, 0.2619432500665792 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 111, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2328, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\n\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/))" }, { "id": 5319, "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "short_title": "Dutch to recommend Vit. D supp?", "url_title": "Dutch to recommend Vit. D supp?", "slug": "dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-29T23:27:51.871842Z", "published_at": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.808260Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-10T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5319, "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "created_at": "2020-09-29T23:27:51.871842Z", "open_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-04T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-10T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:54:32.807759Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\n\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\n\nThis question asks:\n\n***Will the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n\n- That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement.\n\nAnd:\n\n- That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus.\n\nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\n\n\n> At present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\n\n\n[fine-print]\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\n\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \n\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5319, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625049386.166303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625049386.166303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17274965949496304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23761652173150052, 0.0, 0.8585512680100754, 0.4881318146518435, 0.0, 0.28705404421628866, 0.0, 1.4246972794411903, 0.0, 0.21562164146808224, 0.35101014262860925, 0.40004842213273534, 2.1359563086928723, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0298550216910316, 0.21053501418371628, 1.1970643843165854, 0.04203940166576829, 0.0, 0.6782416881858238, 0.0, 0.5863919868312759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022263149504593318, 0.0, 0.73440527249818, 0.4482977324842707, 0.0, 0.159228013413647, 0.0, 0.2245538360947466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026430157778456278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00743766165558475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003576932888935743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 45.095969022114794, "peer_score": 15.506833766866103, "coverage": 0.9979029661138453, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9979029661138453, "spot_peer_score": -30.306790178515772, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": 45.095969022114794, "peer_archived_score": 15.506833766866103, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -30.306790178515772, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625049386.25427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625049386.25427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9160211876501541, 0.08397881234984594 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 5318, "title": "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "short_title": "NIH to recommend Vit. D supp?", "url_title": "NIH to recommend Vit. D supp?", "slug": "nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-29T20:32:22.273682Z", "published_at": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.232202Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-10T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5318, "title": "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "created_at": "2020-09-29T20:32:22.273682Z", "open_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-04T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-10T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T14:05:58.248843Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\n\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:\n\n- That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement.\n\nAnd:\n\n- That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus.\n\nThe CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)\n\n> The role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.", "fine_print": "The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250.", "post_id": 5318, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625089928.921969, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625089928.921969, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19769922751235713 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08126255146963655, 0.0, 0.17943435635859495, 0.36423672253766437, 1.2287338947013922, 0.3403841164406407, 0.02385565427197364, 0.0, 0.2235888191169101, 1.1278214793870267, 0.0, 0.1664766545233207, 0.8353215637810844, 0.0030874849173408332, 0.9734116828145246, 0.7813658774028125, 0.16476659597769222, 0.0, 0.7721183597146019, 1.6556042562287367, 0.05114088738198595, 0.0, 0.984845019141356, 0.0, 1.8014196993540457, 0.0, 0.010533797021803945, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8873410162862754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3863475959150271, 0.9421888867040361, 0.1259676274784619, 0.05239604340077941, 0.0, 0.01352731712145787, 0.0, 0.04868885920035452, 0.008061960629922116, 0.0, 0.01713567839441117, 0.0016186711029794957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005954758208044591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09600190510397445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00699857894747922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012381970298981316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 39.96104895039722, "peer_score": 13.9415759055544, "coverage": 0.9964690972855952, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9964690972855952, "spot_peer_score": 9.74063833978362, "spot_baseline_score": -2.914634565951651, "baseline_archived_score": 39.96104895039722, "peer_archived_score": 13.9415759055544, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.74063833978362, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -2.914634565951651 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625089928.963237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625089928.963237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9115932766365799, 0.08840672336342015 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 211, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\n\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5317, "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "short_title": "NHS to recommend Vit. D supp?", "url_title": "NHS to recommend Vit. D supp?", "slug": "nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-29T20:32:15.778092Z", "published_at": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.945998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-10T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5317, "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "created_at": "2020-09-29T20:32:15.778092Z", "open_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-04T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-10T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:55:51.520211Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\n\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n\n- That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement.\n\nAnd:\n\n- That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus.\n\nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\n\n> There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.", "fine_print": "The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250.", "post_id": 5317, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625089951.457937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625089951.457937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.15867011798396707 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.005284440765379686, 0.0, 0.17170723907335256, 0.3093816515438681, 2.8879781047750255, 1.0292692277159354, 0.03453192803547644, 0.0, 0.38003119001452856, 1.339819945263232, 0.0, 2.1239566346687915, 0.8212534005730167, 0.0, 0.9236159582571188, 0.05695831578220843, 0.8550280626406166, 0.07960314682337272, 0.019954887933908164, 1.891215178187356, 0.01810777154832202, 1.0, 0.010803794281517749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42490956286738546, 0.0, 0.5675480669018961, 0.0, 0.2555168591127752, 0.0, 0.9464393003703787, 0.09748043419697767, 0.2904204131944944, 0.0, 0.02276779607081993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01546230204759403, 0.004168136376593382, 0.005313788500141374, 0.05254845534087888, 0.0, 0.0043262948692535655, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010339533689454465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07210060232265658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00406686720801615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004545421011829164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022195882369684906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 34.869349633590836, "peer_score": 18.639324861789028, "coverage": 0.9979238730737034, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9979238730737034, "spot_peer_score": -9.273551977048363, "spot_baseline_score": 2.856915219677092, "baseline_archived_score": 34.869349633590836, "peer_archived_score": 18.639324861789028, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -9.273551977048363, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 2.856915219677092 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625089951.500892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625089951.500892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9312557301430177, 0.06874426985698234 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 255, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\n\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5316, "title": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?", "short_title": "Vit. D as Covid best practice?", "url_title": "Vit. D as Covid best practice?", "slug": "vit-d-as-covid-best-practice", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-29T20:32:04.075407Z", "published_at": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.228362Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-07-01T20:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-01T20:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T21:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-10T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5316, "title": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?", "created_at": "2020-09-29T20:32:04.075407Z", "open_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-04T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T21:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-10T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T17:01:08.559940Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-07-01T20:16:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-07-01T20:16:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\n\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\n\nThis question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.", "fine_print": "The BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\n\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250.", "post_id": 5316, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625169090.803592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625169090.803592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.15118232657745082 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0474656242935705, 0.029661619281934278, 0.17328192541860157, 0.0, 1.705512354080876, 1.2324167092616993, 0.18122419014514907, 0.4413029865991559, 1.5572000478893595, 2.9012196108835213, 0.015883435425733956, 0.0, 0.5654629475663837, 1.294932308566374, 2.080461883899554, 0.0, 0.03349165034227409, 0.8537238344660225, 0.0, 1.0253031117180886, 0.38724420750636684, 0.0033717487736429743, 0.0, 0.013102376952695997, 0.008707545135364378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08557650027224023, 0.0, 0.1701337401221235, 0.0, 0.06549528002940233, 0.04537471748417765, 0.15195867094493953, 0.2987651986943935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022380611202584777, 0.0, 0.01443890889948288, 0.0, 0.0011269619338877953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004519539225959827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15755482133027027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8069959133207646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000926134218651555, 0.0, 0.00032889645943876195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 47.44806210093868, "peer_score": 22.906372930338755, "coverage": 0.9979277941458828, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9979277941458828, "spot_peer_score": -11.5950685725527, "spot_baseline_score": -39.592867633113926, "baseline_archived_score": 47.44806210093868, "peer_archived_score": 22.906372930338755, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.5950685725527, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -39.592867633113926 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1625169090.831868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1625169090.831868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9374696022130206, 0.06253039778697946 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 247, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\n\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\n\nThis question asks:" }, { "id": 5313, "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?", "short_title": "Planet Nine Discovery before 2030", "url_title": "Planet Nine Discovery before 2030", "slug": "planet-nine-discovery-before-2030", "author_id": 111772, "author_username": "NoUsernameSelected", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-28T09:45:23.133565Z", "published_at": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T22:34:55.887353Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 125, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5313, "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?", "created_at": "2020-09-28T09:45:23.133565Z", "open_time": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-03T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.*\n\n---\n\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\n\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\n\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.", "resolution_criteria": "For this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5313, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763824309.292648, "end_time": 1764326126.469408, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763824309.292648, "end_time": 1764326126.469408, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.24911418782048328 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09579000750583701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11748690146061783, 0.14294776347577356, 0.23406135680211848, 0.8079741623456276, 0.3193625093223559, 0.3469183260877188, 0.0, 3.0650051399230085, 0.0, 0.44181099202797386, 0.0, 0.4870925892744464, 0.12942725956994772, 0.5763703908955309, 0.6484149088826142, 0.02629714439192043, 0.6983056029809626, 0.850311502033836, 0.0, 0.15297231633906228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061881780206469506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011157123373592481, 0.04888313629975682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07739348047006786, 0.3785851400939386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20728428597607368, 0.0, 0.005849328395348274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6015901690426233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9320576437636137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06930124042864184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025290490754560285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003256133383704309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22659881065625792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290134.619956, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290134.619956, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8898209895180568, 0.11017901048194327 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 334, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.*\n\n---\n\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\n\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\n\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection." }, { "id": 5311, "title": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?", "short_title": "Lesswrong \"red button\" pressed on Petrov Day", "url_title": "Lesswrong \"red button\" pressed on Petrov Day", "slug": "lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day", "author_id": 101911, "author_username": "tetraspace", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-26T15:40:38.642574Z", "published_at": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.511200Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-09-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-28T10:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-28T10:08:00Z", "open_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 135, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5311, "title": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?", "created_at": "2020-09-26T15:40:38.642574Z", "open_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-01T17:55:49.648855Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-01T17:55:49.648855Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-28T10:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-28T10:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-09-28T10:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-24T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-24T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.\n\nOne proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes:\n\n> And you can also play on hard mode: \"During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.\"\n\nLesswrong has hosted an event along these lines [in 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019) and [in 2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020). In 2019, 125 users were given \"launch codes\" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site [was not took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019) in 2019, and [was took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020?commentId=CviMXu8BciCqcSMKJ#Relating_to_the_End_of_Humanity) in 2020.", "resolution_criteria": "If the site [lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/) hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5311, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632521882.888565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632521882.888565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.4446578091132555 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.408548459480469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6743689742632885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25397061746706623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5226004457404996, 0.0, 0.38989734728641584, 0.6570955296189149, 0.0, 0.9867567533135577, 0.013975062184252263, 1.322755064740747, 0.025117018133582667, 0.0, 0.604751483927157, 0.026810812036580693, 0.106658992583383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3075999100744428, 0.004635774293864186, 0.0, 0.840778612890122, 0.29327480948315726, 1.685318110828568, 0.5693543134543, 2.016228947886865, 0.0, 0.34107568952035294, 3.9670341433470946, 0.9771288744065917, 0.990275263118475, 0.004377989664681641, 0.372173446946028, 0.3274377557610357, 0.02562453339093842, 0.05092822306665027, 0.0, 0.017092498373218395, 1.248863629646958, 0.0007873685800849873, 0.2972412954504772, 5.0836333581389236e-05, 0.01001119990976723, 0.011361536607641616, 2.4448295978029883e-05, 0.7050912083214038, 0.3807019411372791, 0.0, 0.15636628692375681, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08126670233840316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007933824671589458, 0.012181370680413675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00633597535395683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03868320419497753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007030721111618356, 0.0002479396351038522 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.25515444662432, "coverage": 0.9997597143233165, "baseline_score": -5.511600950758044, "spot_peer_score": -21.53806764681191, "peer_archived_score": 17.25515444662432, "baseline_archived_score": -5.511600950758044, "spot_peer_archived_score": -21.53806764681191 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632521882.923621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1632521882.923621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6088164688805743, 0.3911835311194257 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 252, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.\n\nOne proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes:\n\n> And you can also play on hard mode: \"During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.\"\n\nLesswrong has hosted an event along these lines [in 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019) and [in 2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020). In 2019, 125 users were given \"launch codes\" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site [was not took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019) in 2019, and [was took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020?commentId=CviMXu8BciCqcSMKJ#Relating_to_the_End_of_Humanity) in 2020." }, { "id": 5298, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?", "short_title": "Will ACB be confirmed before Election Day?", "url_title": "Will ACB be confirmed before Election Day?", "slug": "will-acb-be-confirmed-before-election-day", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-22T16:53:28.107295Z", "published_at": "2020-09-24T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.687686Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-24T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-27T00:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-27T00:45:00Z", "open_time": "2020-09-24T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 175, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5298, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?", "created_at": "2020-09-22T16:53:28.107295Z", "open_time": "2020-09-24T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-25T12:09:53.995834Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-25T12:09:53.995834Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-27T00:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-27T00:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-10-27T00:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Amy Vivian Coney Barrett](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett) (born January 28, 1972) is an American lawyer, jurist, and academic who serves as a circuit judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit. Barrett considers herself a public-meaning originalist; her judicial philosophy has been likened to that of her mentor and former boss, Antonin Scalia. Barrett's scholarship focuses on originalism.\n\nBarrett was nominated to the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals by President Donald Trump on May 8, 2017 and confirmed by the Senate on October 31, 2017. While serving on the federal bench, she is a professor of law at Notre Dame Law School, where she has taught civil procedure, constitutional law, and statutory interpretation.\n\nShortly after her confirmation to the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals in 2017, Barrett was added to [Trump's list of potential Supreme Court nominees.](https://apnews.com/d305493e8ed4853d47513efeb895d195)\n\nAs of September 22 2020, [Barrett is considered to be one of the top contenders for a Supreme Court nomination](https://apnews.com/2671c24ddc972989ef44b5cd88461b1d), to fill the vacancy that arose following the death of Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on September 18 2020.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Amy Coney Barrett is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern on November 3 2020 (election day). It resolves negatively if this does not happen", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5298, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1602716257.990668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 175, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1602716257.990668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 175, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8788672857074582 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.011634363749243268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007733789605693747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.887857178500246e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00032470154110751025, 0.0, 0.00870833051427986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009235017133946992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023440203102545826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002989772240498322, 0.073842509887817, 0.0, 0.0026261937397383294, 0.0, 0.003197321721119237, 0.3305934746269469, 0.03209503547110511, 0.021305969823651308, 0.022487955521288676, 0.8793188953549617, 0.28342708165950925, 0.001828623990193459, 0.020476907694805105, 0.0009268131685142049, 0.1914900073749185, 1.105504142257337, 9.81752358340346e-05, 0.2273154835831368, 0.026595625128028128, 0.0022714698937037923, 1.2638536075864717, 1.3453143633834659, 1.0861453222493576, 0.07719681954768666, 0.0, 3.318188098353964, 0.049903043366319615, 0.8671346717174389, 0.5600966534779821, 0.06230450229509153, 1.6384629414186895, 0.39375959253306736, 2.1461539458922214, 0.6314170298809275, 0.0, 2.3128317925993755, 1.6551508238075328, 0.6240366586552565, 0.20912935500699398, 3.4301130226621463 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.860736681771064, "coverage": 0.997977739007871, "baseline_score": 61.422188037967295, "spot_peer_score": 7.730421765619657, "peer_archived_score": 4.860736681771064, "baseline_archived_score": 61.422188037967295, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.730421765619657 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1602716258.060338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 175, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1602716258.060338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 175, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.041735595896428945, 0.958264404103571 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 653, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Amy Vivian Coney Barrett](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett) (born January 28, 1972) is an American lawyer, jurist, and academic who serves as a circuit judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit. Barrett considers herself a public-meaning originalist; her judicial philosophy has been likened to that of her mentor and former boss, Antonin Scalia. Barrett's scholarship focuses on originalism.\n\nBarrett was nominated to the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals by President Donald Trump on May 8, 2017 and confirmed by the Senate on October 31, 2017. While serving on the federal bench, she is a professor of law at Notre Dame Law School, where she has taught civil procedure, constitutional law, and statutory interpretation.\n\nShortly after her confirmation to the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals in 2017, Barrett was added to [Trump's list of potential Supreme Court nominees.](https://apnews.com/d305493e8ed4853d47513efeb895d195)\n\nAs of September 22 2020, [Barrett is considered to be one of the top contenders for a Supreme Court nomination](https://apnews.com/2671c24ddc972989ef44b5cd88461b1d), to fill the vacancy that arose following the death of Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on September 18 2020." }, { "id": 5271, "title": "Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?", "short_title": "George Bush endorses Joe Biden", "url_title": "George Bush endorses Joe Biden", "slug": "george-bush-endorses-joe-biden", "author_id": 113940, "author_username": "Axvig", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-18T23:41:57.590841Z", "published_at": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.227115Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-02T10:59:32Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-02T10:59:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:13:00Z", "open_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5271, "title": "Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?", "created_at": "2020-09-18T23:41:57.590841Z", "open_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-30T15:30:14.692323Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-30T15:30:14.692323Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-03T09:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-02T10:59:32Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-02T10:59:32Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Former President George W. Bush did not endorse fellow Republican Donald Trump in his 2016 presidential campaign, and [a spokesman for Bush said](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/george-w-bush-laura-bush-no-clinton-trump-vote-230957) that he did not vote for any candidate for president that year.\n\nMany prominent Republicans and former staff of the Bush administration have endorsed Joe Biden for president in 2020. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell and former Governor of Ohio John Kasich have both endorsed Biden and spoke at the Democratic National Convention in August 2020. Over 200 former Bush staffers have formed a political action committee (PAC) called [43 Alumni for Biden](https://43alumniforjoebiden.com) to support Biden’s presidential campaign.\n\nGeorge W. Bush has said that he does not plan to endorse a candidate for president in 2020. A Bush spokesman [told The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/513456-bush-endorsing-biden-dont-hold-your-breath) last month that “We've been quite clear and consistent - President Bush is retired from presidential politics and will not be weighing in.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if George W. Bush makes a public statement saying that he plans to vote for Joe Biden for president in the November 2020 election or encourages others to do so, or that his desired outcome for the 2020 U.S. presidential election is that Joe Biden is elected president. This question will resolve negatively if he does not make such a statement.\n\nIn the event that President Bush announces that he does not plan to vote for Donald Trump, but never endorses Biden as described above, this question will resolve negatively.\n\nIn the event that a secret recording or personal communication of President Bush privately saying that he supports Joe Biden in the presidential election is made publicly available before he has made a public endorsement, this question will resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5271, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604312583.485801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604312583.485801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02022555827062804 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 12.872429502022355, 1.1440325838694174, 1.863682771607134, 0.38972323592718316, 1.5348773971342122, 0.05389839539644623, 0.02511113768417862, 0.00412801400445961, 0.002539280627490721, 0.008501554366197688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013815863958488678, 0.04137845983140931, 0.0016870797780243333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1784224436052871, 0.0, 0.044315172352650006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004940915054150324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017253559579906867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022267761436016178, 0.0, 0.0014557515078758613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008934406256051884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000390197396586153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006116391588802215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001435456002026656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.48062014991251, "coverage": 0.9974372500541825, "baseline_score": 86.11382236543399, "spot_peer_score": 24.423600061393604, "peer_archived_score": 12.48062014991251, "baseline_archived_score": 86.11382236543399, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.423600061393604 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604312583.576245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604312583.576245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9824406778359926, 0.01755932216400731 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 220, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Former President George W. Bush did not endorse fellow Republican Donald Trump in his 2016 presidential campaign, and [a spokesman for Bush said](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/george-w-bush-laura-bush-no-clinton-trump-vote-230957) that he did not vote for any candidate for president that year.\n\nMany prominent Republicans and former staff of the Bush administration have endorsed Joe Biden for president in 2020. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell and former Governor of Ohio John Kasich have both endorsed Biden and spoke at the Democratic National Convention in August 2020. Over 200 former Bush staffers have formed a political action committee (PAC) called [43 Alumni for Biden](https://43alumniforjoebiden.com) to support Biden’s presidential campaign.\n\nGeorge W. Bush has said that he does not plan to endorse a candidate for president in 2020. A Bush spokesman [told The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/513456-bush-endorsing-biden-dont-hold-your-breath) last month that “We've been quite clear and consistent - President Bush is retired from presidential politics and will not be weighing in.”" }, { "id": 5265, "title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?", "short_title": "CDC Adopts HAES by 2035", "url_title": "CDC Adopts HAES by 2035", "slug": "cdc-adopts-haes-by-2035", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-16T19:53:00.819661Z", "published_at": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.905172Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5265, "title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?", "created_at": "2020-09-16T19:53:00.819661Z", "open_time": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-21T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-21T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\n\n> Health at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\n\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\n\n> As part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\n\n> Research shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\n\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\n\n> The validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\n\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\n\n> the prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\n\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).", "resolution_criteria": "The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,\n\n* Used the words \"Health at Every Size\" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/\n\n* Discontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.\n\n* Made the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5265, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758245452.567229, "end_time": 1768513407.845474, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758245452.567229, "end_time": 1768513407.845474, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18454758971417626 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.8511117471101488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7835029326219957, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 2.23640633602861, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.7330525659197651, 0.939471283923442, 0.06427640630688772, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2732116256176125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289647.065285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289647.065285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9342452525571704, 0.06575474744282962 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\n\n> Health at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\n\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\n\n> As part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\n\n> Research shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\n\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\n\n> The validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\n\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\n\n> the prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\n\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/)." }, { "id": 5260, "title": "Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue feature a human?", "short_title": "Humans on the 2022 IKEA Catalogue Cover", "url_title": "Humans on the 2022 IKEA Catalogue Cover", "slug": "humans-on-the-2022-ikea-catalogue-cover", "author_id": 111805, "author_username": "galen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-16T00:01:56.057528Z", "published_at": "2020-09-18T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.732559Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-18T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-10T23:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-10T23:07:00Z", "open_time": "2020-09-18T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5260, "title": "Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue feature a human?", "created_at": "2020-09-16T00:01:56.057528Z", "open_time": "2020-09-18T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-20T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-10T23:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-10T23:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-10T23:07:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The IKEA Museum website provides [a complete archive of IKEA Catalogues](https://ikeamuseum.com/sv/ikea-kataloger/), currently covering yearl from 1950 to 2021. The first cover to feature a human figure comes in 1970, with some portion of a human then visible on the cover for the following years: 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1980, 1981, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2020. \n\nThat is, in 71 years, 22 of IKEA's yearly catalogues have featured a human on the cover. But the catalogue history has seen a number of 'dry spells'.\n\nChanging expectations and fashions in corporate advertising are visible across this period, and IKEA's dominance in the 'affordable' homeware/furniture market shows no immediate signs of declining. The annual catalogue is also seen as a particularly important feature of the company's marketing. It [reportedly](https://web.archive.org/web/20040622103715/http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_GB/about_ikea/press_room/student_info.html) consumed 70% of the company's annual marketing budget in 2004. [According to the Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390444508504577595414031195148), approximately 208 million copies were printed worldwide in 2013.\n\nGiven this, the visual style of IKEA's catalogue seems to be a (weak) bellwether for broader shifts in multinational corporate aesthetics.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves according to whether, in the view of the moderators, the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue posted to the [IKEA Museum website](https://ikeamuseum.com/sv/ikea-kataloger/) contains some portion of visible human figure. In the event that the IKEA Museum website is no longer available, the [US IKEA](https://www.ikea.com/us/en/) website's publication will be used.\n\nIf no 2022 catalogue is published, the question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "In the event that the catalogue is published earlier than expected, the question closes retrospectively one day before the catalogue's publication.", "post_id": 5260, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1607462160.619641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1607462160.619641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6192014172644836 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7000029474199073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48820818993539605, 0.9291474423985058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5507673294460262, 0.20851081619995687, 3.24641344257176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3424769302936217, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3015836471175666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1607462160.638605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1607462160.638605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3257009581354898, 0.6742990418645102 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The IKEA Museum website provides [a complete archive of IKEA Catalogues](https://ikeamuseum.com/sv/ikea-kataloger/), currently covering yearl from 1950 to 2021. The first cover to feature a human figure comes in 1970, with some portion of a human then visible on the cover for the following years: 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1980, 1981, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2020. \n\nThat is, in 71 years, 22 of IKEA's yearly catalogues have featured a human on the cover. But the catalogue history has seen a number of 'dry spells'.\n\nChanging expectations and fashions in corporate advertising are visible across this period, and IKEA's dominance in the 'affordable' homeware/furniture market shows no immediate signs of declining. The annual catalogue is also seen as a particularly important feature of the company's marketing. It [reportedly](https://web.archive.org/web/20040622103715/http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_GB/about_ikea/press_room/student_info.html) consumed 70% of the company's annual marketing budget in 2004. [According to the Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390444508504577595414031195148), approximately 208 million copies were printed worldwide in 2013.\n\nGiven this, the visual style of IKEA's catalogue seems to be a (weak) bellwether for broader shifts in multinational corporate aesthetics." }, { "id": 5256, "title": "Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?", "short_title": "Will Trump drop in polls after first debate?", "url_title": "Will Trump drop in polls after first debate?", "slug": "will-trump-drop-in-polls-after-first-debate", "author_id": 101341, "author_username": "Pablo", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-14T10:13:35.605639Z", "published_at": "2020-09-17T10:13:35.605000Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.712227Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-17T10:13:35.605000Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-09-28T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-28T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-14T20:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-14T20:46:00Z", "open_time": "2020-09-17T10:13:35.605000Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5256, "title": "Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?", "created_at": "2020-09-14T10:13:35.605639Z", "open_time": "2020-09-17T10:13:35.605000Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-18T05:10:38.187751Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-18T05:10:38.187751Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-14T20:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-14T20:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-10-14T20:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-28T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-09-28T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/business/media/trump-biden-debate-moderators.html),\n\n>President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. will debate with a single moderator at each of their three matchups, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Wednesday, September 2.\n\n>The first debate of the general election, on Sept. 29, will be moderated by the “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace. Mr. Wallace received high marks for his debut debate in 2016 and is known for his sharp interviewing style.\n\nTrump currently (September 14) [trails Biden in the 538 polling average by 7.2%](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/); Biden has 50.7% in the polling average, and Trump is on 43.5%.", "resolution_criteria": "For a positive resolution, Trump's [polling average as reported by 538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/) must drop by at least five full percentage points relative to the number reported as of 00:00 on September 29, the day the first debate is to take place, before 00:00 on October 14, both dates in Eastern Time.\n\nFor example, if Trump has 43.5% in the polling average on September 29, he must drop to 38.5% or lower before October 14 for a positive resolution.\n\nNote that this question does *not* ask if Trump will finish that period with a 5-point drop in the polls; it resolves positively if Trump ever drops 5 points or more between September 29 and October 14, even if he recovers before October 14.", "fine_print": "This question is conditional on the first debate between Trump and Biden actually taking place. If it does not, the question resolves ambiguously. The question also resolves ambiguously if 538 fails to report a polling average figure over the relevant time period.\n\nThis question was largely copied from [the parallel question about Biden](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5202/will-biden-drop-in-polls-after-first-debate/) created by user [Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/101465/).", "post_id": 5256, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1601332287.389928, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1601332287.389928, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16103600366823398 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0421604216764502, 0.5038024623093624, 1.022948334333473, 0.03773855977766196, 1.2470806021248704, 0.24670550767439337, 0.1831269067177525, 1.024758114727573, 0.3485022334916162, 1.7013002569068085, 0.45230172588483064, 0.09680224218966235, 0.0, 0.1804616133202561, 2.41201409980336, 0.001983748139857539, 0.7262597419388622, 0.08035973101815289, 0.0, 1.269791941065531, 0.6511869951896028, 0.5585114651060701, 0.11181352106447921, 0.0, 1.5766336628126223, 0.058942783212658584, 0.0, 0.16740347036274886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7666127313093721, 0.0006732969874897521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6163089641375369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3284921818141836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14607736383926273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022486742455525503 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.1350931454090265, "coverage": 0.9930723015478873, "baseline_score": 85.40924746392494, "spot_peer_score": -4.402310598699972, "peer_archived_score": 5.1350931454090265, "baseline_archived_score": 85.40924746392494, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.402310598699972 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1601332287.446354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1601332287.446354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9617282247215242, 0.038271775278475806 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 170, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/business/media/trump-biden-debate-moderators.html),\n\n>President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. will debate with a single moderator at each of their three matchups, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Wednesday, September 2.\n\n>The first debate of the general election, on Sept. 29, will be moderated by the “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace. Mr. Wallace received high marks for his debut debate in 2016 and is known for his sharp interviewing style.\n\nTrump currently (September 14) [trails Biden in the 538 polling average by 7.2%](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/); Biden has 50.7% in the polling average, and Trump is on 43.5%." }, { "id": 5255, "title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?", "short_title": "Confirmation of Life on Venus by 2035", "url_title": "Confirmation of Life on Venus by 2035", "slug": "confirmation-of-life-on-venus-by-2035", "author_id": 103304, "author_username": "isinlor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-14T07:18:36.715024Z", "published_at": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T07:32:42.197705Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", 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"user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5255, "title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?", "created_at": "2020-09-14T07:18:36.715024Z", "open_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-17T09:32:08.512349Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-17T09:32:08.512349Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n- [When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/)\n- [Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/)\n- [If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/)\n\n----\n\nThe lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783)\n including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\n\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a strong scientific consensus that past or extant extraterrestrial life exists or has existed on Venus before January 1, 2035. If such a consensus is not reached before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5255, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763191951.24191, "end_time": 1766650730.82899, "forecaster_count": 303, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763191951.24191, "end_time": 1766650730.82899, "forecaster_count": 303, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.032204065830839707 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.590480678016519, 11.813964666390605, 0.889760484359704, 1.5914510365625638, 0.8462455401652857, 0.9791784761029179, 0.0, 0.14386632411646189, 1.9415154030550883e-05, 0.0020664501954809145, 0.6000521476788742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022332215549345736, 4.900538284138497e-05, 0.011498854496805409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.491623715068857e-08, 0.1996320340863849, 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"interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9954582961750371, 0.004541703824962853 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 40, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 677, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n- [When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/)\n- [Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/)\n- [If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/)\n\n----\n\nThe lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783)\n including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\n\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783)." }, { "id": 5253, "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?", "short_title": "Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?", "url_title": "Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?", "slug": "iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030", "author_id": 114650, "author_username": "rcloud", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-13T20:46:22.344317Z", "published_at": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T02:55:08.648575Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 185, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 629, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", 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"", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Iranian Government credibly states that it has a nuclear weapon or has tested a nuclear weapon at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030, according to credible media reports.", "fine_print": "For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\n\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) will be sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**.\n\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 5253, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763780098.133976, "end_time": 1766597184.466183, "forecaster_count": 463, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763780098.133976, "end_time": 1766597184.466183, "forecaster_count": 463, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3117381883217308 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5562394087733225, 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"author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-13T20:15:48.974723Z", "published_at": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T16:57:14.825263Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-09-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-09-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 181, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5252, "title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, 2028, or 2032?", "created_at": "2020-09-13T20:15:48.974723Z", "open_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-18T01:35:24.163838Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-18T01:35:24.163838Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-09-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-09-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-09-01T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [\"The Squad\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_(United_States_Congress)), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.\n\nAmericans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for any of the presidential elections due to take place in 2024, 2028, or 2032. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "If any of the three elections mentioned above does not happen, for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, an election which is delayed by more than a year from the original date is judged to not have happened.\n\nIn the case of a split in the Democratic Party, AOC will be deemed to be the \"Democratic Nominee\" if she is the nominee for one of the parties which forms from the split, *and* if that party is one of the two largest parties in the US (as measured by percentage of the popular vote in the presidential election for which AOC is the nominee).", "post_id": 5252, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763312224.469658, "end_time": 1765999607.036678, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763312224.469658, "end_time": 1765999607.036678, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11665875796101348 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8604734129521872, 0.9389867339200503, 0.6313319029079558, 0.4232914923476263, 0.8626378376389328, 0.5418406117037878, 0.5395100456784682, 1.9030790982751586, 2.608067231618496, 0.9608390050508001, 3.6670552849612905, 0.024862791115863873, 0.11812809822728877, 0.7298060102915309, 1.6977152152587212, 1.3761374311229018, 0.5555324841117126, 0.0, 0.3450213285327598, 0.09754889044580134, 0.8875654211361803, 0.0, 0.05486786689709217, 0.09243650965230589, 0.0, 0.11822408289264762, 0.0, 0.07805655355277344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05167383043992478, 0.0, 0.03145560810281314, 0.05995921219229985, 0.0, 0.1789894809684222, 0.0, 0.027645787271039366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01851233929524182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04201459226414017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023036159304943298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874993912013072, 0.004346102664200167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002158340905255293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.247287926814531e-05, 0.007119823456878581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35970288648016946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016811599511978352 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286799.27406, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 171, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286799.27406, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 171, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9722479232571134, 0.027752076742886597 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 459, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [\"The Squad\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_(United_States_Congress)), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.\n\nAmericans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032." }, { "id": 5219, "title": "Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?", "short_title": "Rushton paper retracted before 2022.", "url_title": "Rushton paper retracted before 2022.", "slug": "rushton-paper-retracted-before-2022", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-10T02:10:08.415241Z", "published_at": "2020-09-22T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.862388Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-22T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-30T00:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-30T00:29:00Z", "open_time": "2020-09-22T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5219, "title": "Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?", "created_at": "2020-09-10T02:10:08.415241Z", "open_time": "2020-09-22T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-24T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-24T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-30T00:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-30T00:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-30T00:29:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There have been many retractions of scientific papers concerning controversial topics in recent times. For instance, earlier this year, Cory Clark et al [retracted](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797619897915) a much discussed paper (*Declines in Religiosity Predict Increases in Violent Crime—but Not Among Countries With Relatively High Average IQ*). Similarly, Hans Eysenck has in recent years been facing [numerous retraction requests](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/misconduct-allegations-push-psychology-hero-his-pedestal) concerning his work with [Ronald Grossarth-Maticek](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Grossarth-Maticek) on personality and health. Finally, very recently, a paper by Phil Rushton was [retracted](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886912000840), *Do pigmentation and the melanocortin system modulate aggression and sexuality in humans as they do in other animals?*:\n\n>This article (Rushton, J. P., & Templer, D. I. (2012). Do pigmentation and the melanocortin system modulate aggression and sexuality in humans as they do in other animals? Personality and Individual Differences, 53(1), 4–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2012.02.015) has been retracted at the request of the Editor-in-Chief and the majority of Senior Associate Editors of Personality and Individual Differences and in consultation with the Executive Officers and Board of Directors of the International Society for the Study of Individual Differences (ISSID).\n\nThe reasons given for the retraction were as follows:\n> (1) Rushton & Templer drew on a review paper in an Ecology journal (Ducrest et al., 2008) which argues that genetic variants which influence skin colour may also influence aggression, sexual activity and resistance to stress – mainly based on birds and fish. The correspondent and geneticist each comment that the genes responsible for skin pigmentation in humans are completely different to the genes in these animals. It therefore makes no sense to extrapolate from these animal studies to humans. Ducrest et al. made this crystal clear: “human populations are therefore not expected to consistently exhibit the associations between melanin-based coloration and the physiological and behavioural traits reported in our study”. As the geneticist observes, “the point about genetic variants for skin pigmentation being different in humans makes all the other vertebrate work cited inconsequential”.\n\n>(2) Rushton & Templer claimed that there are black/white (human) differences in levels of psychopathy. As required of a review paper, the authors should have been aware of a literature showing that black-white differences in the best-available measure of psychopathy are negligible (Skeem et al., 2004). They instead relied on an analysis by Lynn (2002) which has been extensively criticized (Skeem, Edens, Sanford, & Colwell, 2003; Zuckerman, 2003).\n\n>(3) Rushton & Templer ignored obvious social and educational explanations for higher levels of violence, HIV infection etc. in African and Caribbean countries whilst favouring a genetic theory.\n\n>(4) Rushton & Templer made several errors when interpreting the results summarised by Ducrest et al. Although relatively minor, these errors consistently favoured their genetic thesis.\n\nA detailed writeup of the problems with the paper is available [here](https://medium.com/@evopsychgoogle/a-critique-of-rushton-and-templers-2012-paper-b334ed8db5ae).\n\nBoth authors of this paper are deceased (as is Hans Eysenck), so could not address the concerns raised about their work. This question asks:", "resolution_criteria": "- If any additional paper authored by Rushton is officially retracted before 2022, this question resolves positively.\n- Rushton can be any author on the paper, first, middle, or last", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5219, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609667548.562312, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609667548.562312, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.7247694087025076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.088050884103823, 0.0, 0.8454212326928386, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4658623751583555 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.6198547823669611, "coverage": 0.11805501146731068, "baseline_score": 0.08991527567846638, "spot_peer_score": -2.037899623608398, "peer_archived_score": 0.6198547823669611, "baseline_archived_score": 0.08991527567846638, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.037899623608398 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1607143875.717054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1607143875.717054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4798816647725037, 0.5201183352274963 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There have been many retractions of scientific papers concerning controversial topics in recent times. For instance, earlier this year, Cory Clark et al [retracted](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797619897915) a much discussed paper (*Declines in Religiosity Predict Increases in Violent Crime—but Not Among Countries With Relatively High Average IQ*). Similarly, Hans Eysenck has in recent years been facing [numerous retraction requests](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/misconduct-allegations-push-psychology-hero-his-pedestal) concerning his work with [Ronald Grossarth-Maticek](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Grossarth-Maticek) on personality and health. Finally, very recently, a paper by Phil Rushton was [retracted](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886912000840), *Do pigmentation and the melanocortin system modulate aggression and sexuality in humans as they do in other animals?*:\n\n>This article (Rushton, J. P., & Templer, D. I. (2012). Do pigmentation and the melanocortin system modulate aggression and sexuality in humans as they do in other animals? Personality and Individual Differences, 53(1), 4–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2012.02.015) has been retracted at the request of the Editor-in-Chief and the majority of Senior Associate Editors of Personality and Individual Differences and in consultation with the Executive Officers and Board of Directors of the International Society for the Study of Individual Differences (ISSID).\n\nThe reasons given for the retraction were as follows:\n> (1) Rushton & Templer drew on a review paper in an Ecology journal (Ducrest et al., 2008) which argues that genetic variants which influence skin colour may also influence aggression, sexual activity and resistance to stress – mainly based on birds and fish. The correspondent and geneticist each comment that the genes responsible for skin pigmentation in humans are completely different to the genes in these animals. It therefore makes no sense to extrapolate from these animal studies to humans. Ducrest et al. made this crystal clear: “human populations are therefore not expected to consistently exhibit the associations between melanin-based coloration and the physiological and behavioural traits reported in our study”. As the geneticist observes, “the point about genetic variants for skin pigmentation being different in humans makes all the other vertebrate work cited inconsequential”.\n\n>(2) Rushton & Templer claimed that there are black/white (human) differences in levels of psychopathy. As required of a review paper, the authors should have been aware of a literature showing that black-white differences in the best-available measure of psychopathy are negligible (Skeem et al., 2004). They instead relied on an analysis by Lynn (2002) which has been extensively criticized (Skeem, Edens, Sanford, & Colwell, 2003; Zuckerman, 2003).\n\n>(3) Rushton & Templer ignored obvious social and educational explanations for higher levels of violence, HIV infection etc. in African and Caribbean countries whilst favouring a genetic theory.\n\n>(4) Rushton & Templer made several errors when interpreting the results summarised by Ducrest et al. Although relatively minor, these errors consistently favoured their genetic thesis.\n\nA detailed writeup of the problems with the paper is available [here](https://medium.com/@evopsychgoogle/a-critique-of-rushton-and-templers-2012-paper-b334ed8db5ae).\n\nBoth authors of this paper are deceased (as is Hans Eysenck), so could not address the concerns raised about their work. This question asks:" }, { "id": 5217, "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", "short_title": "Frie Grønnes seats in the Danish parliament", "url_title": "Frie Grønnes seats in the Danish parliament", "slug": "frie-grnnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-08T03:50:05.156994Z", "published_at": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.262162Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-02T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-02T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5217, "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", "created_at": "2020-09-08T03:50:05.156994Z", "open_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-17T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-02T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-02T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-02T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\n\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).", "resolution_criteria": "- If Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)) this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n\n- If any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5217, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1665937825.872746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1665937825.872746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.1790828274831978 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1817980904325696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4387232613217865, 0.899891991538917, 0.30445314579120214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3853216660402349, 1.5206883341313682, 0.0, 0.6069406094758865, 1.0, 0.2767645108512169, 1.9619662106089386, 0.09464378440008571, 0.3665885696709727, 0.7288213086725668, 0.0, 0.03495084310683225, 0.06462956491704921, 0.0, 0.04896551112574321, 0.0, 0.017752108957266952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 1.186878131294944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16206224262730762, 0.0, 0.0216015677189824, 0.056405454004622, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011325021621769293, 0.08368122008485587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.011741532070262, "coverage": 0.783138019156644, "baseline_score": 49.22095679807966, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 5.011741532070262, "baseline_archived_score": 49.22095679807966, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667289059.209859, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667289059.209859, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9423004845378341, 0.05769951546216591 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\n\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold)." }, { "id": 5212, "title": "Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?", "short_title": "Legacy Automaker Bankruptcy before 2030", "url_title": "Legacy Automaker Bankruptcy before 2030", "slug": "legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030", "author_id": 111944, "author_username": "Bob_Muller", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-06T19:50:27.959949Z", "published_at": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T12:49:47.866191Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5212, "title": "Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?", "created_at": "2020-09-06T19:50:27.959949Z", "open_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-11-23T23:29:57.797116Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-11-23T23:29:57.797116Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\n\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\n\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020).", "resolution_criteria": "If one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "If the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government", "post_id": 5212, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763115405.109268, "end_time": 1763931959.546728, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763115405.109268, "end_time": 1763931959.546728, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5630138089583666 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728291629.820787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728291629.820787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7743365011285284, 0.22566349887147166 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 283, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\n\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\n\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020)." } ] }
