Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5240
{ "count": 6408, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5260", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5220", "results": [ { "id": 5202, "title": "Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?", "short_title": "Will Biden drop in polls after first debate?", "url_title": "Will Biden drop in polls after first debate?", "slug": "will-biden-drop-in-polls-after-first-debate", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-04T18:10:57.334932Z", "published_at": "2020-09-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.055590Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-07T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-09-28T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-28T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-14T20:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-14T20:48:00Z", "open_time": "2020-09-07T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 114, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5202, "title": "Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?", "created_at": "2020-09-04T18:10:57.334932Z", "open_time": "2020-09-07T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-08T13:14:33.841675Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-08T13:14:33.841675Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-14T20:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-14T20:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-10-14T20:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-28T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-09-28T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/business/media/trump-biden-debate-moderators.html),\n\n>President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. will debate with a single moderator at each of their three matchups, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Wednesday, September 2.\n\n>The first debate of the general election, on Sept. 29, will be moderated by the “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace. Mr. Wallace received high marks for his debut debate in 2016 and is known for his sharp interviewing style.\n\nJoe Biden, 77, is the oldest major party nominee in US history, and [his opponents have claimed that he is not as mentally sharp as he once was.](https://www.businessinsider.com/new-trump-ad-biden-cognitive-decline-youtube-fox-news-2020-8?r=US&IR=T) Indeed, a June 2020 Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey [found that 38% of likely U.S. voters think Biden is suffering from some form of dementia.](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) This has led some to question whether the debates between Trump and Biden could be a turning point in the election campaign. \n\n\nTrump currently (September 4) [trails Biden in the 538 polling average by 7.4%](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/); Biden has 50.4% in the polling average, and Trump is on 43%.\n\nPolitico reports that Trump's advisers are watching Biden closely and [\"studying Biden’s idiosyncrasies to identify ways to trip him up on the debate stage.\"](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/04/trump-biden-presidential-debate-prep-408651)", "resolution_criteria": "For a positive resolution, Biden's [polling average as reported by 538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/) must drop by at least five full percentage points relative to the number reported as of 00:00 on September 29, the day the first debate is to take place, before 00:00 on October 14, both dates in Eastern Time.\n\nFor example, if Biden has 48.5% in the polling average on September 29, he must drop to 43.5% or lower before October 14 for a positive resolution.\n\nNote that this question does *not* ask if Biden will finish that period with a 5-point drop in the polls; it resolves positively if Biden ever drops 5 points or more between September 29 and October 14, even if he recovers before October 14.", "fine_print": "This question is conditional on the first debate between Trump and Biden actually taking place. If it does not, the question resolves ambiguously. The question also resolves ambiguously if 538 fails to report a polling average figure over the relevant time period.", "post_id": 5202, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1601332707.123586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1601332707.123586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.1502276815703872 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0404251289822426, 0.6779184218157333, 0.3002089761460644, 0.6294138827674814, 2.1903730764717793, 0.29846413875425315, 0.6705212516579988, 0.025660622263964372, 0.01183654065497593, 1.5235787165617831, 0.0, 1.1225598241189714, 1.5904052508059667, 1.0219811251454562, 3.2294542728485243, 0.0, 1.4471731639233905, 0.0, 0.1593996194236564, 0.6844299067684678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.480486591858256, 0.16714662885255707, 0.0, 0.01889469055248197, 0.0, 0.0016053113319600574, 0.0, 0.01753022629147086, 0.00017044834789565235, 0.0, 0.02034849615368459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4596100568770919, 0.0, 0.3377615163689033, 0.0, 0.41514837982859937, 0.016250367944418115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004165471396545407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006359100333188915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28848934677429744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006040225766337409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.89641935720882, "coverage": 0.999043072205172, "baseline_score": 81.32124500400671, "spot_peer_score": 1.5880835176992871, "peer_archived_score": 9.89641935720882, "baseline_archived_score": 81.32124500400671, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.5880835176992871 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1601332707.203955, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1601332707.203955, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9606054511695176, 0.03939454883048241 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 222, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/business/media/trump-biden-debate-moderators.html),\n\n>President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. will debate with a single moderator at each of their three matchups, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Wednesday, September 2.\n\n>The first debate of the general election, on Sept. 29, will be moderated by the “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace. Mr. Wallace received high marks for his debut debate in 2016 and is known for his sharp interviewing style.\n\nJoe Biden, 77, is the oldest major party nominee in US history, and [his opponents have claimed that he is not as mentally sharp as he once was.](https://www.businessinsider.com/new-trump-ad-biden-cognitive-decline-youtube-fox-news-2020-8?r=US&IR=T) Indeed, a June 2020 Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey [found that 38% of likely U.S. voters think Biden is suffering from some form of dementia.](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) This has led some to question whether the debates between Trump and Biden could be a turning point in the election campaign. \n\n\nTrump currently (September 4) [trails Biden in the 538 polling average by 7.4%](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/); Biden has 50.4% in the polling average, and Trump is on 43%.\n\nPolitico reports that Trump's advisers are watching Biden closely and [\"studying Biden’s idiosyncrasies to identify ways to trip him up on the debate stage.\"](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/04/trump-biden-presidential-debate-prep-408651)" }, { "id": 5201, "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?", "short_title": "Kamala Harris Presidency before 2025", "url_title": "Kamala Harris Presidency before 2025", "slug": "kamala-harris-presidency-before-2025", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-09-04T16:16:43.073847Z", "published_at": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.407655Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:15:00Z", "open_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 462, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5201, "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?", "created_at": "2020-09-04T16:16:43.073847Z", "open_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-12T22:59:50.559981Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-12T22:59:50.559981Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T16:16:47.289259Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-21T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)\n* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-first-term/)\n\n----\n\nKamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)) This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\n\n>Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\n\n>The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\n\n>Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kamala Harris is the US President for at least 30 consecutive days at any point between January 20, 2021 to January 20, 2025. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5201, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737349405.548645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 460, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737349405.548645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 460, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.03776337087980845 ], "histogram": [ [ 25.356605599004673, 5.302777757540381, 1.5491603863750067, 0.9488049017871415, 0.9505821585241396, 2.868553244570376, 0.32187088084680116, 0.6966153088402668, 0.3049358326824126, 0.2625994489482899, 0.8046070211638057, 0.07510894186818191, 0.007662753263293024, 0.01598552258187305, 0.07059965070224627, 0.3402855919706035, 0.062071701554499266, 0.00043885658762248735, 0.001179158513447983, 0.002561646179878363, 0.4151287235840309, 0.019270436632004673, 0.005403751471317018, 0.0, 5.6249871583822676e-05, 0.10195102761291999, 0.0, 0.0016110847354009, 0.009093466166833706, 0.0, 0.003060682905623258, 0.012275855357184229, 0.007810987173949348, 0.001773436418478647, 0.0, 1.0056584344694228e-05, 0.00016333805820353603, 0.001385711099017695, 0.0, 0.0001930319732260213, 1.9551854757255464e-07, 0.0, 1.7434345570548655e-06, 0.0, 2.3045814222386657e-07, 0.0, 0.00015095935208866095, 0.07188248458683105, 1.9630979876729278e-06, 6.734826055678364e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013944985278830404, 0.0, 2.6398560785685523e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.65421787210026e-06, 0.0022334397486549534, 0.00032515689947027507, 0.00022280674443391914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003914230320250751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014509956781527433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8238846112879244e-05, 3.799017744494858e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7958998544135527e-06, 0.0, 1.560121780270505e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09861971186906648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7142318184226406e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.697234838885946 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999840399309304, "spot_peer_score": 5.437645635663061, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_score": 81.50708254453973, "peer_score": 17.897295332099866, "coverage": 0.9999840399309304, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.437645635663061, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 81.50708254453973, "peer_archived_score": 17.897295332099866 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289161.342083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 456, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289161.342083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 456, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9923601751741298, 0.007639824825870198 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 53, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1487, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)\n* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-first-term/)\n\n----\n\nKamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)) This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\n\n>Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\n\n>The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\n\n>Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party." }, { "id": 5181, "title": "Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?", "short_title": "Will CZU or LNU Complex be more destructive?", "url_title": "Will CZU or LNU Complex be more destructive?", "slug": "will-czu-or-lnu-complex-be-more-destructive", "author_id": 114033, "author_username": "kjz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-31T16:54:55.029183Z", "published_at": "2020-08-31T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.581921Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-08-31T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-09-08T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-08T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-30T13:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-30T13:59:00Z", "open_time": "2020-08-31T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 5181, "title": "Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?", "created_at": "2020-08-31T16:54:55.029183Z", "open_time": "2020-08-31T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-02T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-02T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-30T13:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-30T13:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-10-30T13:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-08T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-09-08T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, better known as \"CalFire\", maintains a Top 20 Most Destructive California Wildfires list. The list is accessible in the \"General Information/Links\" box at <https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/> (note that the address of the list itself changes as the list is updated).\n\nTwo active fires have already destroyed enough structures to place in the top ten on the list. The [LNU Lightning Complex](https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/8/17/lnu-lightning-complex-includes-hennessey-gamble-15-10-spanish-markley-13-4-11-16-walbridge/) is currently shown in 10th place on the list with 1198 structures destroyed. The [CZU Lightning Complex](https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/8/16/czu-lightning-complex-including-warnella-fire/), while not appearing yet on the list, recently surpassed LNU and has destroyed 1361 structures, enough to rank 9th.\n\nSee also [these](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3488/will-california-have-a-wildfire-among-the-10-most-destructive-in-state-history-in-2020/) related [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5156/what-destructiveness-rank-will-lnu-lightning-complex-fires-reach/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the CZU Lightning Complex is ranked higher than the LNU Lightning Complex on the list when both fires have been extinguished, and negatively otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5181, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1599525533.128265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1599525533.128265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6365952252470337 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5023065402709107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 1.203574585306185, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.134606350415966, "coverage": 0.9047339179958778, "baseline_score": -125.9740830456942, "spot_peer_score": 6.395187678012038, "peer_archived_score": 5.134606350415966, "baseline_archived_score": -125.9740830456942, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.395187678012038 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1599525533.171508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1599525533.171508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.14369291893072456, 0.8563070810692754 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, better known as \"CalFire\", maintains a Top 20 Most Destructive California Wildfires list. The list is accessible in the \"General Information/Links\" box at <https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/> (note that the address of the list itself changes as the list is updated).\n\nTwo active fires have already destroyed enough structures to place in the top ten on the list. The [LNU Lightning Complex](https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/8/17/lnu-lightning-complex-includes-hennessey-gamble-15-10-spanish-markley-13-4-11-16-walbridge/) is currently shown in 10th place on the list with 1198 structures destroyed. The [CZU Lightning Complex](https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/8/16/czu-lightning-complex-including-warnella-fire/), while not appearing yet on the list, recently surpassed LNU and has destroyed 1361 structures, enough to rank 9th.\n\nSee also [these](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3488/will-california-have-a-wildfire-among-the-10-most-destructive-in-state-history-in-2020/) related [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5156/what-destructiveness-rank-will-lnu-lightning-complex-fires-reach/)." }, { "id": 5178, "title": "When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "short_title": "Valuation from $2tr to $4tr in under 365 days", "url_title": "Valuation from $2tr to $4tr in under 365 days", "slug": "valuation-from-2tr-to-4tr-in-under-365-days", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-31T09:47:23.193626Z", "published_at": "2020-09-02T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T15:54:58.506766Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-02T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2021-06-16T17:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-16T17:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T18:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-09-02T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5178, "title": "When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "created_at": "2020-08-31T09:47:23.193626Z", "open_time": "2020-09-02T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-04T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T18:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2021-06-16T17:17:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-06-16T17:17:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "(See Resolution Criteria section for background context.)", "resolution_criteria": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [\\$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. When Apple first hit a capitalisation of \\$2tr, it was worth less than \\$1tr 365 days prior, resolving [the previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/) positively.\n\n**Will the first publicly traded company to have a \\$4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching \\$2 trillion?**\n\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of \\$4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to \\$2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service. Qualifying companies are restricted to companies that were publicly traded over the whole year when their valuation doubled.\n\nCurrent quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's [GDP implicit price deflator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAGDPDEFQISMEI). If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's [real broad effective exchange rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=currency%3Bexchange%20rate%3Breal\\&ob=pv\\&od=desc) of the current quarter.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5178, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1623860390.667342, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1623860390.667342, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.41139360325514013 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3824866069011992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008145825627362421, 0.0, 0.02214264978065527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03964961737738214, 0.011180043889456084, 0.0, 0.9521164907587737, 1.3512913634767063, 0.0, 0.12813881437575497, 0.0490743809829292, 0.5885226963260081, 0.10619425017942953, 0.0, 0.025217381917613763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6760110960890131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16699379305358406, 1.2219112840147126, 0.24484609769994412, 1.9479061902730308, 0.500608196895924, 0.060189962532687886, 0.0, 0.28570051944328617, 0.0, 0.8175400446730006, 0.0, 0.30820192961550297, 0.0, 0.0, 1.012926090312178, 0.09700195938329419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4139349489548404, 1.0355038647969363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002996681779674101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006861545636634085, 0.0, 0.15044316718241518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011024176184751514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4775044192925832, 0.0, 0.03399508714018381 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1623860390.690035, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1623860390.690035, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6338152605161261, 0.36618473948387387 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "(See Resolution Criteria section for background context.)" }, { "id": 5174, "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", "short_title": "Biden Restores 39.6% Tax Bracket before 2025", "url_title": "Biden Restores 39.6% Tax Bracket before 2025", "slug": "biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025", "author_id": 114643, "author_username": "danpen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-30T13:01:21.151935Z", "published_at": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.904466Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T01:06:00Z", "open_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 140, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5174, "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", "created_at": "2020-08-30T13:01:21.151935Z", "open_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-28T22:57:28.020076Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-28T22:57:28.020076Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T01:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T01:08:29.273904Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Joe Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6% by January 1, 2025. If Biden is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf Biden is not elected President in 2020, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5174, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.73831472285227, "peer_score": 27.728191634166034, "coverage": 0.999982670559117, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999982670559117, "spot_peer_score": 20.71279441886698, "spot_baseline_score": -83.65012677171204, "baseline_archived_score": 63.73831472285227, "peer_archived_score": 27.728191634166034, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.71279441886698, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -83.65012677171204 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288270.713345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, 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"user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T20:04:18.980942Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5173, "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?", "created_at": "2020-08-29T17:45:56.021854Z", "open_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-05T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-05T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-26T13:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-26T13:48:23.227826Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T08:12:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T08:12:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if by January 1, 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.", "fine_print": "The code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\n\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\n\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\n\n> Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\n\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\".", "post_id": 5173, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735697374.487736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735697374.487736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23177570913800782 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0225030309385326, 0.2838313875128301, 0.0, 0.7038446451067445, 0.0, 1.2992785731607994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7115308023781606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19267892523477537, 0.0, 1.585526363164925, 0.9897433875828895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1520387240148697, 0.008934832410362489, 0.0036936903415560217, 0.015999109858631472, 0.11528368492778149, 1.136122868390142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046843471097372705, 0.0, 0.25180208280014105, 0.489720753132561, 0.005228157946939775, 0.032507148338583335, 0.2542776093169868, 1.7149622388728192, 0.23747616990092357, 0.0, 0.014326247536910926, 0.0, 0.6003986688699392, 0.13404309120326557, 0.06580133899776562, 0.15533933659248353, 0.0320590561661521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5291651220994753, 0.00230644805578227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019802118268059273, 0.0, 0.02955077040086195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40351233925798374, 0.17946090628082964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012792465124422179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4348230009253651, 0.07171643370137068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012091980749280742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00044483911207012384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 33.25339622959831, "peer_score": 13.1094946540612, "coverage": 0.9999754098984444, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999754098984444, "spot_peer_score": 77.01253670655963, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 33.25339622959831, "peer_archived_score": 13.1094946540612, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 77.01253670655963, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289242.084239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289242.084239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9690264590898123, 0.030973540910187627 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 237, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3." }, { "id": 5172, "title": "Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?", "short_title": "Top University to Win Economics Nobel in 2020", "url_title": "Top University to Win Economics Nobel in 2020", "slug": "top-university-to-win-economics-nobel-in-2020", "author_id": 107022, "author_username": "Peter13", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-29T15:06:10.496615Z", "published_at": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.326014Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-11T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-11T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-12T12:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-12T12:45:00Z", "open_time": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5172, "title": "Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?", "created_at": "2020-08-29T15:06:10.496615Z", "open_time": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-16T12:39:18.407962Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-16T12:39:18.407962Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-12T12:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-12T12:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-10-12T12:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-11T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-11T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [Nobel Prize in Economics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Economic_Sciences), officially known as \"The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel\", is a prize administered by the Nobel Foundation given to recipients who have made outstanding contributions in Economics or other Social Sciences.\n\nAs might be expected, the prize is [frequently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_Memorial_Prize_laureates_in_Economics) given to economists from the most prestigious, high-ranking universities, although this is not always the case.\n\n***Will the recipient(s) of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if the receipient of the 2020 Economics Nobel is part of any of the top eight scholastic institutions in terms of economic citations. If there are multiple recipients, all of them must be part of the top eight (but not necessarily the same institution).\n\n[fine-print]\nThe top eight institutions will be determined by the [IDEAS-Repec score](https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.inst.nbcites.html) available as of the date of the Nobel Prize selection.\n\nIn addition to e.g. active professors, this includes individuals who are considered staff of their respective institution or have retired but still kept their connection to the institution (e.g. a professor emeritus). The recipients do not necessarily need to be part of the economics department at the institution in question.\n\nDifferent departments in the same institution (e.g. the Department of Economics and the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago) will be considered one institution. That is, two groups such as \"Bar, Foo\" and \"Baz, Foo\", where Foo is some distinct university (such as MIT or University of Chicago, but not the entire UC system), should generally be combined.\n\nResearch institutions and think tanks that are part of the institution's campus but not incorporated into the university will not be included in the citations of scholastic institutions.\n\nFor clarity, the top eight scholastic institutions at publish time are:\n\n1. Harvard University\n2. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)\n3. University of Chicago\n4. University of California-Berkeley\n5. Stanford University\n6. London School of Economics (LSE)\n7. New York University (NYU)\n8. 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Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?", "created_at": "2020-08-29T10:56:08.320303Z", "open_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-10-17T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-10-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T07:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T07:10:04.732776Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\n\n***Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas before January 1, 2025. If the project is declared abandoned, canceled, or destroyed, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia during the period between October 2020 to December 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5170, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735696845.214194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 306, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735696845.214194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 306, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.017679455637256255 ], "histogram": [ [ 23.570583935831817, 6.695597520281857, 1.2003608607907457, 0.1293839204342182, 0.07122800905324002, 0.33506587330545534, 0.0687720785180781, 0.07944655813193963, 0.0028737526973548954, 0.07967650395077001, 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\n\n>A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\n\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\n\n**Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?**\n\n- Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case.\n- Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing.\n- Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished.\n\n*ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5158, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1619818496.307942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1619818496.307942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.24207689637444305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1528722157226583, 0.0, 0.002921927549442896, 0.0, 1.5510182772128442, 0.0020195477262434573, 0.12838400484744758, 1.1437810756740743, 2.720830501749464e-05, 0.8248211423255978, 0.0, 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Following the [shooting of Jacob Blake](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53927756) by a policeman, and the murder of two protesters [by a teenager](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/us/kyle-rittenhouse-kenosha-shooting-video.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur) in the subsequent protests, the Milwaukee Bucks [refused to play in game 5 of their NBA playoff series](https://www.nba.com/article/2020/08/26/nba-games-postponed-bucks-magic-thunder-rockets-lakers-blazers). All three of the games scheduled for 26 August, involving Orlando Magic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, LA Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers, in addition to the Bucks, were [eventually postponed](https://www.nba.com/article/2020/08/26/nba-playoff-games-postponed).\n\nThe postponement of games was echoed across American professional sport, with [the WNBA, MLB, and MLS following suit](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/08/26/bucks-boycott-nba-playoff-game/). It is just over 4 years since Colin Kaepernick first [took the knee](https://www.nfl.com/news/colin-kaepernick-explains-why-he-sat-during-national-anthem-0ap3000000691077) before an NFL game, also in protest at racial injustice in the United States.\n\nThe postponed games have not yet been re-scheduled, and there is [talk of cancelling the season altogether](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/lebron-james-leads-lakers-clippers-in-exiting-nba-players-meeting-after-voting-to-cancel-season-per-report/?fbclid=IwAR1XSjv9qys1Vp_fWvLAwtqkJUFXHT34kdIrOK9u_3Ln3PlW_h0Y3sP9koU).\n\nThis question asks:\n\n**Will the 2020 NBA playoffs finish as planned?**\n\n\"As planned\" is taken in this context to mean that each of the 15 playoff series detailed in [this bracket](http://www.espn.com/nba/bracket) is played as a best of 7. If the official bracket is changed such that it consists of less than 15 playoff series, or if any of the playoff series ends without a team achieving 4 wins, this question resolves negatively. 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"2020-11-04T04:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T04:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-04T04:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-02T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-02T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In 2019, California passed Assembly Bill 5 (AB 5), which assumes a worker is an employee, rather than an independent contractor, unless [three criteria are met](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Assembly_Bill_5_(2019)). In August 2020, the Superior Court of San Francisco ruled that Uber and Lyft had [violated AB 5](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_22,_App-Based_Drivers_as_Contractors_and_Labor_Policies_Initiative_(2020)).\n\nProposition 22 is a ballot initiative that would override AB 5 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, not employees. DoorDash, Lyft, Uber, Instacart, and Postmates have provided $110M in campaign funding for Proposition 22. The stipulations can be found [here](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_22,_App-Based_Drivers_as_Contractors_and_Labor_Policies_Initiative_(2020)). Proposition 22 is scheduled to be voted on on November 3, 2020.\n\n**Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?**\n\nResolution:\n\n* This question will resolve according to the result reported by [ballotpedia.org](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_22,_App-Based_Drivers_as_Contractors_and_Labor_Policies_Initiative_(2020)).\n* This question resolves positively if Proposition 22 is passed anytime before March 1, 2021. \n* It resolves negatively if Proposition 22 is not passed before March 1, 2021. 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Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\n\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \n\n**Will the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?**\n\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n\n* A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/).\n* A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.)\n* As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/).\n* The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants).\n\nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\n\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1619926158.754822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1619926158.754822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14, 0.86 ], "means": [ 0.8572040668441906 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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intelligence parity with human 5th graders?", "short_title": "Top AI Outperforms 5th Graders", "url_title": "Top AI Outperforms 5th Graders", "slug": "top-ai-outperforms-5th-graders", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-23T19:52:08.915066Z", "published_at": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.415250Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5120, "title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?", "created_at": "2020-08-23T19:52:08.915066Z", "open_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-28T19:52:08.915000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-28T19:52:08.915000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \n\nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\n\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \n\n***Question resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.***\n\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\n\nSome fine print:\n\n- The fine print from [this question]((https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/)) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n\n- If there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n\n- The entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5120, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641078012.40258, "end_time": null, 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5118, "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?", "created_at": "2020-08-23T01:58:33.244412Z", "open_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-23T11:31:09.228000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-23T11:31:09.228000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-16T19:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-16T19:42:28.351623Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that\n\n> Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make \\<\\$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, **No** if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and **Ambiguous** if nobody has conceded before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5118, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654230.773323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 360, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654230.773323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 360, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.015982963631109414 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.78604110574279, 12.174685728161354, 0.945230616400547, 0.2791820150483321, 0.3239104142848953, 0.29482171106292687, 0.09331018415690724, 0.09994978727515692, 0.0762599190419442, 0.34217590130837994, 0.165160974554307, 0.0, 0.0008256629868194458, 0.0, 0.002180205199224222, 0.016102112295368842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044791997854274526, 2.330035181635582e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 5.259685853268279e-05, 0.0027039374178481797, 4.2504071695276063e-08, 0.18072207239771984, 0.052775948761780614, 0.0, 0.3678997708277612, 0.0, 9.425786739532852e-07, 0.003961237610763892, 0.0, 0.00013543977830610707, 0.00035180789725265183, 1.1426466781914995e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007731611639370884, 0.0001321631272342506, 1.2548416685268998e-06, 2.7858161379820213e-05, 0.000612662269840846, 0.00017427281157427483, 3.210414052979488e-06, 3.472826564880967e-06, 6.972202233185359e-05, 0.00012426145245495425, 0.00018163248775183725, 0.00014520474444221096, 0.0, 0.13517007183211524, 2.964897895764624e-06, 0.0003674264054404011, 0.0013003476656855634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004708138197815374, 0.00029921389278804276, 0.0, 0.00018766682199485984, 0.0, 0.00011006086714070184, 0.0, 0.00028322935467977716, 7.266487504630066e-06, 0.0, 0.00019388871711690283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002867177904178654, 0.0, 0.0003593626794953568, 0.0, 0.00045091203067371713, 0.0, 0.00020635709659919008, 0.0, 0.0, 7.790828027518618e-06, 0.0, 0.00021648004013198794, 8.25508479990663e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021982472567580225, 0.0, 0.00039440303684655677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04652840743108678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 45.354898645089605, "peer_score": 20.572611867858882, "coverage": 0.9994901407529557, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994901407529557, "spot_peer_score": 54.92580326968674, "spot_baseline_score": 56.55971758542251, "baseline_archived_score": 45.354898645089605, "peer_archived_score": 20.572611867858882, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 54.92580326968674, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 56.55971758542251 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288071.604125, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 357, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288071.604125, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 357, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 54, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1308, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that\n\n> Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make \\<\\$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. 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But the reprieve allows them to continue operating while the court considers their case for appeal.\n\n> The court's decision came just hours before Lyft was due to halt rides. The court has ordered Uber and Lyft to both submit their plans for hiring employees by early September, and oral arguments in the case are set for mid-October. Lyft was due to stop its services in California at 23:59 local time on Thursday (06:59 GMT on Friday). [...]\n\n\n> [Uber and Lyft] have always argued their drivers are self-employed contractors.\n\n> But a California law that came into effect earlier this year, known as AB5, extended employee classification to workers in the \"gig economy\". The judge's ruling that the law applied to both Uber and Lyft means the firms need to provide drivers with extra benefits, such as unemployment protection.\n\n> Both companies filed an appeal to the judgement - and asked for a stay on its enforcement while the courts dealt with the appeal. Unless the stay was granted, both companies had 10 days to undertake what they saw as a significant overhaul of their business in California.\n\n> They both warned that they could be forced to pull services from the state at the end of the day on Thursday. [...]\n\n> There is a potential way out for the ride-sharing firms in the coming months.\n\n> A ballot that will be put to vote in November, at the same time as the US presidential election, would grant Uber and Lyft an exemption from the law. It is known as proposition 22. \"Your voice can help,\" Lyft wrote in its blog post about suspending services.\n\n> \"Prop 22, proposes the necessary changes to give drivers benefits and flexibility, while maintaining the rideshare model that helps you get where you need to go,\" it said.\n\n**This question resolves positively if *both* Uber and Lyft are operating in California on June 1st 2021. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.**\n\nFor the sake of this question, \"operating in California\" is taken to mean that, in at least one city, general consumers can receive Uber and Lyft rides.\n\nDetermination is made via credible media reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604368525.367529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604368525.367529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7581273297134627 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html):\n\n>Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border.\n\n>The charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others \"orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors\".\n\n>The indictment claims the \"scheme\" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States.\n\n[Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-trump-advisor-steve-bannon-arrested-fraud-charges).\n\nThe official charges are as follows:\n\n>1. BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, and others, orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors, including donors in the Southern District of New York, in connection with an online crowdfunding campaign ultimately known as “We Build The Wall” that raised more than $25,000,000 to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. To induce donors to donate to the campaign, KOLFAGE and BANNON - each of whom, as detailed herein, exerted significant control over We Build the Wall - repeatedly and falsely assured the public that KOLFAGE would “not take a penny in salary or compensation” and that “100% of the funds raised .. will be used in the execution of our mission and purpose” because, as BANNON publicly stated, “we’re a volunteer organization.”\n\n>2. Those representations were false. In truth, BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, collectively received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donor funds from We Build the Wall, which they each used in a manner inconsistent with the organization’s public representations. In particular, KOLFAGE covertly took more than $350,000 in funds that had been donated to We Build the Wall for his personal use, while BANNON, through a non-profit organization under his control (“Non-Profit-1”), received over $1,000,000 from We Build the Wall, which BANNON used to, among other things, secretly pay KOLFAGE and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars in BANNON’s personal expenses. To conceal the payments to KOLFAGE from We Build the Wall, KOLFAGE, BANNON, BADOLATO, and SHEA devised a scheme to route those payments from We Build the Wall to KOLFAGE indirectly through Non-Profit-1 and a shell company under SHEA’s control, among other avenues. They did so by using fake invoices and sham “vendor” arrangements, among other ways, to ensure, as KOLFAGE noted in a text message to BADOLATO, that his pay arrangement remained “confidential” and kept on a “need to know” basis.\n\n**Will Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge?**\n\n- The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely).\n- Only the ones in this case are relevant. 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2021?", "slug": "a-general-election-held-in-mali-before-2021", "author_id": 112359, "author_username": "tl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-20T13:17:53.489810Z", "published_at": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.183156Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-02T11:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-02T11:20:00Z", "open_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": 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null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "After months of civil unrest, Malian president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita has been forced to resigne and dissolve the parliament by a junta ([Source](https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKCN25F1L7-OZATP)).\nThe leaders of the coup [publicly announced](https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN25G0LQ-OZATP) that they want to organise a general election but without giving any clear time-frame: \n\n> “We are keen on the stability of the country, which will allow us to organise general elections ... within a reasonable time limit”.\n\nThe opposition to the former president declared that it would work with the putschists to achieve this 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Meanwhile the United Nations Security Council condemned the coup and several African countries sanctioned Mali.\n\nThis question asks **will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?**\n\nThis question will resolve positive if a general election is held and negative otherwise (independently of which party is in power).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5104, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609452315.505205, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609452315.505205, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01958320362974927 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 10.622393600294023, 1.0269144965811243, 0.12061449612436426, 0.12971585974003152, 0.4204252977006881, 0.03338091191999331, 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"2020-09-13T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-15T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-15T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)) It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\n\n>Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \n\nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: **Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?**", "resolution_criteria": "- Resolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union. *July 14, 2023 Clarification: a **Yes** resolution requires an accession treaty to come into force before 2030.*\n\n\n- If the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves *negatively*\n\n- If the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves *positively*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5048, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763491278.901704, "end_time": 1765156597.988, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.014 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763491278.901704, "end_time": 1765156597.988, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.014 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.024426797723525972 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.118266640739312, 8.589854808941622, 2.9383669158965002, 0.693817124770222, 0.26521171353493117, 0.009128964975214211, 0.3281655309613659, 1.5027990136014875e-05, 0.0021753591248489797, 0.0, 0.8432593984673563, 9.918156094626113e-05, 5.131320410279707e-05, 0.0, 0.001891100673931783, 0.011676061166813329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002191017127618505, 0.0, 0.0010479458484774118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004787896710356574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006908078198395567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001943533739166044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21185823272189583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006479713574037531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1568384834441644 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289763.377715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 270, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289763.377715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 270, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994536155024247, 0.000546384497575219 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 28, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 711, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)) It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\n\n>Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \n\nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: **Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?**" }, { "id": 5047, "title": "Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-an-authentic-leaked-tape-that-costs-trump-major-public-support-in-2020", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-17T18:37:40.346984Z", "published_at": "2020-08-19T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.134041Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-08-19T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T09:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T09:57:00Z", "open_time": "2020-08-19T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 120, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5047, "title": "Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?", "created_at": "2020-08-17T18:37:40.346984Z", "open_time": "2020-08-19T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-19T11:40:59.038584Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-19T11:40:59.038584Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T09:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T09:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-04T09:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_Access_Hollywood_tape),\n\n> On October 7, 2016, during the 2016 United States presidential election, The Washington Post published a video and accompanying article about then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and television host Billy Bush having \"an extremely lewd conversation about women\" in 2005. Trump and Bush were in a bus on their way to film an episode of Access Hollywood, a show owned by NBCUniversal. In the video, Trump described his attempt to seduce a married woman and indicated he might start kissing a woman that he and Bush were about to meet. [...]\n\n> The recording provoked strong reactions by media figures and politicians across the political spectrum. Statements from Republican officials were varied. Some, including Trump's vice-presidential running mate Mike Pence, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, indicated their disapproval of Trump's words but did not renounce their support or call for his resignation from the ticket. Other Republicans, most prominently former presidential nominee John McCain, stated that they would no longer support Trump's presidential campaign, and some called for his withdrawal from the ticket. House Speaker Paul Ryan announced that he would no longer defend or support Trump's campaign, although he did not officially retract his endorsement of Trump.\n\n**This question asks, will there be another incident of an authentic leaked Trump tape that upsets the election this time around in 2020?**\n\nA leaked Trump tape is defined as a video or audio recording that involves Donald Trump that was not widely available or known about before some critical event, such as a journalist revealing it to the public. A leaked Trump tape is said to have upset the election if at least 5 prominent politicians (defined below) announce their intention to withdraw their support or endorsement for Trump, and cite the tape in their announcement. \n\nA politician is prominent if they belong to any of these classes of people,\n\n* Members of the House of Representatives\n* Senators\n* Sitting governors\n* Former major party presidential nominees\n* Anyone in Trump's cabinet\n* Anyone in Trump's immediate family\n\nThe tape must be considered authentic by at least 3 mainstream media sources, which for the purpose of this question are listed here: ABC News, NBC News, Fox News, PBS, BBC, CBS, The New York Times, CNN.\n\nDetermination is made via credible media reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5047, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604212724.044472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], 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"actual_close_time": "2025-09-22T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\n\n>Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\n> >\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"yes\" if, at any time between December 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030, [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB) formally closes, or the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency for all three of Germany, France, and Italy. For the purposes of this question, being a \"de facto primary currency\" means that at least 50% of all transactions are conducted using that currency.", "fine_print": "*Edit: on April 17, 2022, clarified that \"no longer the de facto primary currency\" means for all three of Germany, France, and Italy, not just any one of those three.*", "post_id": 5039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763510537.256, "end_time": 1764886725.20138, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763510537.256, "end_time": 1764886725.20138, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.012664838867707801 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.199350500923275, 6.581127359890931, 0.3152031995373515, 0.17531506319414153, 0.9888924512157167, 0.022009360559314135, 0.0007576017002229459, 0.29490776023296716, 0.24585267888888213, 0.0, 0.05158070513773303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011463879307081098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290020.745467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 212, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290020.745467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 212, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9984098809840509, 0.0015901190159491134 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 540, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\n\n>Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\n> >\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"" } ] }
