Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5260
{ "count": 6409, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5280", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5240", "results": [ { "id": 5039, "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", "short_title": "Eurozone Collapse Before 2030", "url_title": "Eurozone Collapse Before 2030", "slug": "eurozone-collapse-before-2030", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-17T15:47:35.462161Z", "published_at": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T22:00:00.384533Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 226, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5039, "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", "created_at": "2020-08-17T15:47:35.462161Z", "open_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-12-24T19:58:29.576296Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-12-24T19:58:29.576296Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-22T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-22T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\n\n>Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\n> >\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"yes\" if, at any time between December 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030, [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB) formally closes, or the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency for all three of Germany, France, and Italy. For the purposes of this question, being a \"de facto primary currency\" means that at least 50% of all transactions are conducted using that currency.", "fine_print": "*Edit: on April 17, 2022, clarified that \"no longer the de facto primary currency\" means for all three of Germany, France, and Italy, not just any one of those three.*", "post_id": 5039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763510537.256, "end_time": 1764886725.20138, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763510537.256, "end_time": 1764886725.20138, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.012664838867707801 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.199350500923275, 6.581127359890931, 0.3152031995373515, 0.17531506319414153, 0.9888924512157167, 0.022009360559314135, 0.0007576017002229459, 0.29490776023296716, 0.24585267888888213, 0.0, 0.05158070513773303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011463879307081098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290020.745467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 212, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290020.745467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 212, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9984098809840509, 0.0015901190159491134 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 540, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\n\n>Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\n> >\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"" }, { "id": 5034, "title": "Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a \"hidden website\" on the Tor Network during 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-high-profile-criminal-investigation-take-down-a-hidden-website-on-the-tor-network-during-2021", "author_id": 114222, "author_username": "AvrahamEisenberg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-16T02:07:07.638653Z", "published_at": "2020-08-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.699190Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-08-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-12T04:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-01T01:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-01T01:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-12T04:11:00Z", "open_time": "2020-08-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5034, "title": "Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a \"hidden website\" on the Tor Network during 2021?", "created_at": "2020-08-16T02:07:07.638653Z", "open_time": "2020-08-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-26T01:38:56.249569Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-26T01:38:56.249569Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-01T01:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-12T04:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-12T04:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-01T01:34:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-12T04:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "High profile means at least two credible media sources report that a criminal investigation resulted in a hidden site on the Tor Network became unavailable. No arrests need to be made.\n\nSome historical data, each of which would qualify if they took place in 2021:\n\nSilk Road was taken down in 2013, along with Freedom Hosting\nOperation Onymous shut down hundreds of sites in 2014\nOperation Pacifier shut down Playpen in 2015\nOperation Bayonet shut down AlphaBay and others in 2017\n\nSome examples that would not count:\nOperation Babylon shut down a website in 2015, but I don't see mainstream media coverage, so it would not be considered high profile. \nhttps://apnews.com/85942717e8fa40c09da1f2f3d637e29f this has arrests in 2019, but the story mentions the site shut down prior to those arrests\nBerlusconi was shut down in 2019 with arrests, but against no mainstream media coverage \n\nI don't see anything in 2016 or 2018-20 that would qualify under these criteria, although I may have missed some.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5034, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1610526934.441153, "end_time": null, 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}, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 5033, "title": "Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-edward-snowden-receive-a-federal-pardon-by-january-20th-2021", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-16T01:04:23.413565Z", "published_at": "2020-08-18T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.811663Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-08-18T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:02:00Z", "open_time": "2020-08-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5033, "title": "Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?", "created_at": "2020-08-16T01:04:23.413565Z", "open_time": "2020-08-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-19T14:12:23.218558Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-19T14:12:23.218558Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-20T19:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-20T19:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "From [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-snowden/trump-says-hes-considering-pardon-for-leaker-edward-snowden-idUSKCN25B10Z),\n\n> President Donald Trump said on [August 15th] he is considering a pardon for Edward Snowden, the former U.S. National Security Agency contractor - now living in Russia - whose spectacular leaks shook the U.S. intelligence community in 2013.\n\n> The Republican president's comments followed an interview ([here](https://nypost.com/2020/08/13/trump-a-lot-of-people-think-edward-snowden-not-being-treated-fairly/)) Trump gave to the New York Post this week in which he said of Snowden that \"there are a lot of people that think that he is not being treated fairly\" by U.S. law enforcement.\n\n> U.S. authorities for years have wanted Snowden returned to the United States to face a criminal trial on espionage charges brought in 2013.\n\n> Snowden fled the United States and was given asylum in Russia after he leaked a trove of secret files in 2013 to news organizations that revealed vast domestic and international surveillance operations carried out by the NSA.\n\n> Trump's softening stance toward Snowden represents a sharp reversal. Shortly after the leaks, Trump expressed (here) hostility toward Snowden, calling him \"a spy who should be executed.\"\n\nThis question resolves positively if reputable media sources report that Edward Snowden received a [federal pardon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_pardons_in_the_United_States) before noon on January 20th, 2021 (the scheduled end of president Trump's first term). 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"2020-08-23T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-25T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-25T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-03T01:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-03T01:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-03T01:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Apple Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Inc.) is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Cupertino, California, that designs, develops, and sells consumer electronics, computer software, and online services. It is considered one of the Big Tech technology companies, alongside Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Facebook.\n\nApple is well known for its size and revenues. Its worldwide annual revenue totaled $265 billion for the 2018 fiscal year. Apple is the world's largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies. As of January 2020, more than 1.5 billion Apple products are actively in use worldwide.\n\nAs of August 15 2020, [Apple is the most valuable publicly-traded company in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), with a [market capitalization of over $1.96 trillion.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL?p=AAPL&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABuNEVxoxAe7y46ivD7ufpOZvCod45qAh9UuyyDeJ11oqN_8pntTGFgfjcc5etLQ8AywXgY3_O251ZxVXTFK_69b3xXVfNKIcXJUn_VylVPvsxcRRKrqLqXMyltj3J4bzTlid3-vXzW29Vg1H2dngmW4miMJr8ZrnqhwjrJ6ZIgu&_guc_consent_skip=1597531320)\n\nThis question asks: **Before 1 February 2021, will Apple's market cap fall below $1 trillion?**\n\nThis question resolves positively in the event that Apple's market cap is less than $1 trillion at any time (including intra-day) before 1 February 2021, negatively if this does not occur, and ambiguously in the event that Apple ceases to be 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"user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 5029, "title": "When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?", "created_at": "2020-08-15T21:59:03.618876Z", "open_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-17T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.*\n\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom) Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.", "resolution_criteria": "- This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held.\n- It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise.\n- In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 5029, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761747533.46473, "end_time": 1769008527.396215, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761747533.46473, "end_time": 1769008527.396215, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5528091980459185 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29760493354870354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02976506311787054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02138361596899384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4868080107771222, 0.026634892358482005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3864104813540128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8275515185476872, 0.0032881642641978794, 0.01901686398797193, 0.0, 0.14493692552632606, 0.014077447544194014, 0.0, 2.070810504023993, 0.009729904899458965, 0.2637764494678988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2771688262527138, 0.18140474231598308, 0.008035882952235255, 0.6176352955552511, 0.0, 1.8097881061005905, 0.028161342073255626, 0.923292592415805, 0.3325336102680088, 0.24701630046751935, 2.692976420277815, 1.371130530818638, 0.023596681987146883, 0.0, 0.006785203738958617, 1.8905434004412276, 0.25160485353889084, 0.9047565309742801, 0.003921281623493212, 0.0, 1.614793772236451, 1.4904537249258691, 0.002809212988461455, 0.8552337134085193, 0.8520317871513623, 1.4592364581641988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002846682045462216, 0.08455947452936244, 0.0026411112845806635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6727176498961169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.2517338698374394e-05, 0.1269550960956551, 0.0022675294423324475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04346392662470143, 2.9090769946613682e-05, 0.0, 0.26058323995528915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001279010276636091 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288662.051958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288662.051958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6833413569404032, 0.31665864305959684 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 346, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.*\n\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom) Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum." }, { "id": 4997, "title": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?", "short_title": "A stock-price rise preceding AGI?", "url_title": "A stock-price rise preceding AGI?", "slug": "a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi", "author_id": 104024, "author_username": "mdickens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-12T23:32:23.764636Z", "published_at": "2021-01-18T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.115792Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-01-18T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-01-18T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4997, "title": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?", "created_at": "2020-08-12T23:32:23.764636Z", "open_time": "2021-01-18T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-01-20T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-01-20T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "This question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).\n\nIf the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:\n\n- Let `t` be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let `C` be the company that developed the AGI.\n- Calculate the total return (including dividends) of `C`'s stock over the period from 12 months prior to `t` to one month prior to `t`, inclusive.[1]\n- Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists.\n- Calculate the ratio of `C`'s total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n\nIf the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\n[1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, \"one month prior\" is considered to be November 30. 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"name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4994, "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", "created_at": "2020-08-12T18:45:11.931684Z", "open_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-17T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-17T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-11T21:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-11T21:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-11T21:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-04T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-04T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than *causing* COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n\n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\n\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \n\nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to *not* endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. \nThe latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\n\n*** By start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? ***\n\nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n\n* This would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](\nhttps://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n\n* Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4994, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638592455.552691, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638592455.552691, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05454423537499413 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.7201321216046697, 1.3298762101480994, 1.5661339242312164, 1.8875096521679078, 2.214865550768192, 3.0688543381253646, 0.19720108872263017, 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"author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-11T01:31:38.175827Z", "published_at": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.394325Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T02:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T02:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "##Context\n\nThe Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling.\n\nAs [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article:\n\n> “With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the long-term mean would be expected to be damped on time scales short compared to, e.g., the length of the Maunder minimum. This suggests that the persistent states of low or high activity may be due to truly long term memory effects extending over several cycles.”\n\nInterestingly, Solar Cycle 24 presented the first major decrease in solar activity levels since the 1950s. Given the likelihood that the Sun’s field configuration harbors some degree of long-term memory of its state, Cycle 25 might be expected to be relatively low in terms of both activity and sunspot numbers. This inference has been challenged, however, and so the actual development of solar activity levels during Cycle 25 will help confirm or deny the hypothesis that the Sun is transitioning into mini-Maunder event.\n\nIf Earth is set to experience a prolonged damper on the Sun’s activity, does that imply a green light to ditch the Prius and gas up the SUV? (Un)fortunately, the answer is no. [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/) and other sources are in consensus that Earth will definitely not enter another mini-ice age in the 21st Century. Climate inputs such as the Sun’s activity-induced variation are dwarfed by the greenhouse warming associated with rapid ongoing increase in atmospheric concentrations of molecules such as CO2 that are effective absorbers of infrared light.\n\n> “The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”\n\n**Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 24 or 25?**\n\n##Resolution Criteria\n\nThis question will be resolved as either positive or negative from authoritative sources such as [NASA](https://science.nasa.gov/), or the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). If a mini-Maunder event does not occur in Solar Cycle 24 or in Cycle 25 then the question will resolve negatively, if an event does occur, it will resolve positively. If there is not sufficient data to arrive at a conclusion, the question will resolve ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4979, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672457152.415014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672457152.415014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5700000000000001, 0.43 ], "means": [ 0.4318025354152619 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.19727633401567474, 0.8977711700998559, 0.3379475799745117, 1.0972723887118385, 0.0, 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\n\n> a very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\n\n> Because of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\n\n> One such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\n\n> The success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\n\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\n\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\n\n**This question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?** \n\nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n\n* They received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n\n* Half of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n\n* They reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4969, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740023821.218693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 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"Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?", "created_at": "2020-08-08T12:16:27.755915Z", "open_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-15T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-15T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:41:00.887705Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\n\n>Over 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\n\nSo the question is: **Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?**\n\n- It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4952, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735727838.773839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 213, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735727838.773839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 213, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0036858678263335188 ], "histogram": [ [ 24.648686380430036, 2.3825551011155968, 0.05052985632884194, 0.03984890139029216, 0.001749704665095898, 0.10176834996349843, 0.0, 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"resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\n\n>The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\n\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\n\n>Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n\n>“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\n\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\n\n>While the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\n\n>In the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\n\n>However, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\n\n>The Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\n\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \n\n**Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?**\n\n- Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days.\n- It must happen before 2022.\n- It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election).\n- An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4946, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1637006413.695221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1637006413.695221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01980503317586747 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 22.893443750298907, 2.3890900892920177, 0.3563502229942018, 1.389775035552542, 0.06204399618273583, 0.00029725058713096374, 0.0, 7.377433739417322e-05, 6.792683874747583e-06, 0.026122533197364524, 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This year, the status of the debates has been questioned due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and a couple of opinion pieces in the New York Times calling for the suspension of debates this year, see [here](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/opinion/biden-trump-debate.html) and [here](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/opinion/trump-biden-presidential-debates-2020.html).\n\nAdditionally, there is a metaculus question about [whether presumed nominee Joe Biden will actually be the democratic nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4354/will-joe-biden-be-the-democratic-party-nominee-for-president-of-the-united-states-on-election-day-2020/).\n\nCurrently, the commission on presidential debates [has posted](https://www.debates.org/) the dates and locations of the 3 planned debates.\n\n**Resolution Criteria**\n\nThis is resolved as positive if a formal presidential debate occurs between Donald Trump and Joe Biden ever occurs for the 2020 election before the scheduled election day on November 3, 2020.\n\nIf the debate is held remotely by means of a live video link, this resolves positive. A text-based debate such as a twitter exchange is not sufficient for resolution.\n\nIf either Joe Biden or Donald Trump exit the presidential race before the debate, or if one or both are not present at a presidential debate (that may include third party candidates for example), this resolves negative.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4937, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1600142272.642086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1600142272.642086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06000000000000005, 0.94 ], "means": [ 0.9088306826719904 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [current nuclear arms control agreement](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements) between the US and Russia, the [New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/NewSTART), was signed April 8th 2010. It limits the number of deployed warheads of both countries to 1,550 deployed on 700 strategic delivery systems, and includes measures to monitor this.\n\nNew START is [set to expire](https://www.vox.com/world/21131449/trump-putin-nuclear-usa-russia-arms-control-new-start) on February 5th 2021. There are provisions to extend this agreement by five years on the agreement of both the US and Russia, though the [US wishes to renegotiate this](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-07/news/progress-toward-extending-new-start):\n\n> Russia has repeatedly stated that it is ready to extend the treaty without any preconditions and warned that there is not enough time to negotiate a new agreement to replace it before next February. U.S. allies have also urged the Trump administration to extend the treaty, \n\n> Trump administration officials, however, have argued that New START is outdated and are instead prioritizing the pursuit of a broader agreement.\n\n**Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by February 5th 2021?**\n\nThis will resolve positively if there are credible reports (such as by the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements)) of New START being extended, or a new nuclear agreement between the US and Russia that limits the number of deployed warheads or number of deployed delivery vehicles coming into force on or prior to February 5th 2021.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4935, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606584363.406849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { 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It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\n\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON on January 1, 2025, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month on January 1, 2025. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4934, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735649696.683956, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735649696.683956, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.08238360192857157 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.305566657332212, 3.1882410595414643, 0.3413227024258087, 0.34745716997222265, 0.16098235374781072, 0.7290611852399279, 0.0391375041447012, 0.20862122528853305, 0.03472799489688131, 0.1195213252796204, 0.07869733459893222, 0.01550349210722101, 0.5338394326564748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031787604112146167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004155532194542278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02069706247742786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015287348614981507, 0.0, 0.08346609532897402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3744048311802005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043962607759905424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1226831864486109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023132514010442214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17573956450005151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5380890527093981 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 88.95390845215984, "peer_score": 43.64896504376064, "coverage": 0.9997836945763428, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997836945763428, "spot_peer_score": 7.0749781136849945, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 88.95390845215984, "peer_archived_score": 43.64896504376064, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.0749781136849945, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289534.562752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289534.562752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.989693626933687, 0.010306373066312987 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 184, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\n\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger." }, { "id": 4926, "title": "Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-q2-2020-delinquency-rate-on-residential-mortgages-be-higher-than-that-in-q1-2020", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:51:14.804863Z", "published_at": "2020-08-04T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.536638Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-08-04T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-08-25T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-28T22:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-09-28T22:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-25T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-08-04T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4926, "title": "Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?", "created_at": "2020-08-04T14:51:14.804863Z", "open_time": "2020-08-04T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-06T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-09-28T22:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-25T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-08-25T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-28T22:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-08-25T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Delinquency rate refers to the percentage of loans whose payments are overdue. Delinquency and consumer debt [may be predictive](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=998878) of consumption, and therefore economic output.\n\n**Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if [FRED's economic database](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS) reports that Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages is higher for Q2 2020 than for Q1 2020. The question resolves when the Q2 figures are first published.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4926, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1599160841.847155, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1599160841.847155, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.9187161976512663 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \n\n\n**Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4924, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763675923.998614, "end_time": 1764181254.713975, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763675923.998614, "end_time": 1764181254.713975, 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n\n- [The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)\n- [Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture)\n- [Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation)\n- [P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem)\n- [Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture)\n- [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis)\n- [Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap)\n\nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if the next Millennium Prize Problem is solved by AI, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\n\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n\n- Creating the AI system.\n- Feeding the system with previously established knowledge.\n- Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI.\n- Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans.\n- Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution.\n\nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.", "fine_print": "If the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.", "post_id": 4923, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763770626.866841, "end_time": 1765136430.325324, "forecaster_count": 180, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763770626.866841, "end_time": 1765136430.325324, "forecaster_count": 180, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.44421239209641344 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.45069342975941956, 0.3665020890129981, 0.023119076325917705, 8.42457896521453e-06, 1.0002691463047748, 0.32873644366629795, 0.223122891314155, 0.3544383566437016, 0.0011326918802347951, 0.003965062343469387, 0.35868658383265295, 0.03286510638227139, 0.0, 0.0032300356097106253, 0.010799953529523156, 0.8776167717642503, 0.006465419563141392, 0.21264487297360318, 0.0014850430414355298, 0.012077538606237, 1.5327207959785492, 0.02424379208385454, 0.23288842388129596, 0.0, 0.196600457846924, 0.8350718916263767, 0.0, 0.0892416102984859, 0.5594760761468218, 0.0, 1.750330236324756, 0.3109714216381386, 0.9059080212015014, 0.41158264953529544, 0.6853321325906577, 0.0671476372087391, 0.005029828150509465, 0.04631323839921948, 0.9406598720498014, 0.0, 0.7218294012975531, 0.7679356743844534, 0.0933829173887821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4624503432246654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5432642712087956, 0.3026834650403494, 0.3261841324470735, 0.7446792074277858, 0.00910792852855893, 0.11683644882467438, 0.008114663072677252, 4.051562839442304e-06, 0.03810094096514629, 0.7981155386589358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06684453612550795, 0.07429184889396044, 0.0, 0.04860139622468002, 0.48991768290978427, 1.2146320369866022, 0.4500236846651041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5252634744524736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031225085214326462, 0.0, 0.0001457187491129779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.852712486383743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05916552535358435, 0.5070646154704015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9044274560019065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09769827671851473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2198433502467203 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287904.827434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 223, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287904.827434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 223, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7109905114893256, 0.2890094885106745 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 37, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 554, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n\n- [The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)\n- [Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture)\n- [Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation)\n- [P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem)\n- [Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture)\n- [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis)\n- [Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap)\n\nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money." }, { "id": 4922, "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?", "short_title": "US-China War by 2027", "url_title": "US-China War by 2027", "slug": "us-china-war-by-2027", "author_id": 113018, "author_username": "Grigfall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-03T13:36:49.521817Z", "published_at": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T06:14:52.113296Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-30T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 294, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4922, "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?", "created_at": "2020-08-03T13:36:49.521817Z", "open_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-14T07:30:47.454977Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-14T07:30:47.454977Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-30T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \n\nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \n\nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \n\n> When I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\n>\n> The tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\n>\n> My own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\n\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\")", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4922, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763678964.087708, "end_time": 1764788886.753, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763678964.087708, "end_time": 1764788886.753, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.975, 0.025 ], "means": [ 0.051574647830001014 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.606816220978302, 3.5963943554013205, 3.204734884504814, 2.4610179852253635, 1.2500591746875436, 2.504079964976702, 0.6890283899708802, 0.4804675822665824, 0.04991728779115691, 0.00015888337356610445, 0.6372907731061282, 0.0, 0.015716021522764294, 0.0, 0.002694916038571455, 0.6299029656703722, 0.009575966637113473, 0.0, 0.0029343763327832526, 0.0, 0.0002911159696617833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1521687879951387, 0.010713640101149224, 0.0, 0.0010611939477775082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018687652294719, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0040772109048842625, 0.0, 0.19502575556572055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002264308476666213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008073752635453043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4323032325238946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045634736521929245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005646567953054765 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290131.691288, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290131.691288, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9896704350359979, 0.010329564964002105 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 34, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 721, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \n\nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \n\nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \n\n> When I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\n>\n> The tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\n>\n> My own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\n\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\"." }, { "id": 4919, "title": "At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?", "short_title": "Deworming Recommended By GiveWell by 2026?", "url_title": "Deworming Recommended By GiveWell by 2026?", "slug": "deworming-recommended-by-givewell-by-2026", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-02T15:41:47.103603Z", "published_at": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T20:03:56.188611Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T16:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4919, "title": "At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?", "created_at": "2020-08-02T15:41:47.103603Z", "open_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-06T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-06T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T16:41:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T16:41:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\n\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\n\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n\n- [Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n\n- [How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\n\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\n\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.", "resolution_criteria": "**At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?**\n\n- Resolution will be according to the GiveWell [website](https://www.givewell.org/) on 2026/01/01.\n\n- If GiveWell no longer maintains a list of \"top charities\", but allows donors to donate funds which will be re-granted at GiveWell's discretion, this question resolves positively if at least 10% of these regrants go to deworming charities in the year 2025.\n\n- \"Mass deworming\" is taken to mean treating all or almost all of the individuals in a group for parasitic worms, without testing to see whether they have them. This is common practice due to the low cost and excellent safety profile of deworming medication, as well as the relative expense of testing.\n\n- If a charity has multiple programmes, but GiveWell restricts its donations to a particular programme, that programme is considered to be the \"primary intervention\" for the purposes of resolution. Otherwise, whichever intervention the organisation spends most on is considered the \"primary intervention\".\n\n- If deworming medication is administered in addition to something else, for example a vaccine or vitamin supplement, at the same time, then whether \"deworming\" is the primary intervention will be determined by whether the majority of the value of the programme comes from deworming, according to GiveWell's CEA.\n\n- If GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditions for positive resolution above make sense, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\n- Some of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763828135.072164, "end_time": 1763949980.958441, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763828135.072164, "end_time": 1763949980.958441, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.22445119012446146 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7095347889677784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5928733813562592, 0.7341457988854205, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3325315572279212, 0.9195046140969454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 2.0552276359275043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5407300041287509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.216998672059816, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24233740095005632, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07919054371229513, 0.06833212923320346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06364559424422328, 0.0, 0.16112993942927537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023192367940811438, 0.15306473011963811, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1630824687093152, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286946.769539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286946.769539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.810507976353694, 0.18949202364630602 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 286, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\n\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\n\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n\n- [Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n\n- [How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\n\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\n\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes." }, { "id": 4918, "title": "Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021", "author_id": 106736, "author_username": "nagolinc", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-08-02T07:54:36.793784Z", "published_at": "2020-08-02T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.079695Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-08-02T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 102, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-01T09:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-01T09:29:00Z", "open_time": "2020-08-02T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 282, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4918, "title": "Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?", "created_at": "2020-08-02T07:54:36.793784Z", "open_time": "2020-08-02T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-03T02:56:17.323244Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-03T02:56:17.323244Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-02-01T09:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-01T09:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-01T09:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Belarus will have a presidential election on August 09, 2020. Historically, elections in Belarus have been \"neither free nor fair\". However, recently [opposition](https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-presidential-candidate/30760999.html) to Lukashenko has become more vocal. \n\nThis question asks, **Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?**\n\nThis question will be resolved negatively if there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president (for example due to resignation, death, or fleeing the country). 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