Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5280
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Both the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates, Rutherford Hayes and Samuel Tildern respectively, claimed victory. The [Electoral Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_Commission_(United_States)) was temporarily formed to resolve the ambiguity. The Electoral Commission decided that Rutherford Hayes would become president in an 8-7 vote along partisan lines, and Samuel Tilden backed down and accepted this decision in exchange for ending Reconstruction in the informal [Compromise of 1877](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compromise_of_1877). \n\nIn [Will He Go?](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/6/3/21257133/trump-2020-election-meltdown-lawrence-douglas), Lawrence Douglas argues that such a thing could happen in the 2020 election, and gives various scenarios in which an ambiguity in the result could lead to the governor and legislature sending different certificates of electors to Congress. \n\n**Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?**\n\nThis will resolve positively if multiple certificates from one state are read in the congressional join session for the counting of electoral college votes, or if there are credible news reports that competing certificates have been sent by at least one state.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4910, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1610583539.816574, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1610583539.816574, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06454382615854991 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.078776314216956, 0.48244303614110284, 1.1709602491900144, 0.05684901174497085, 0.8926522706083064, 0.3371587312182893, 0.42353726616031934, 0.027241077649050628, 0.0, 0.27507106406203297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047181121220224005, 0.0, 0.8604643193316266, 0.0, 0.4651355249615596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0055645428502286735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42537346029176554, 0.0, 0.2536694128846039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04121375852228179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011269619338877953, 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"resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T17:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T17:41:00Z", "open_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4908, "title": "If the Republican candidate in 2020 wins the electoral college, will they lose the popular vote?", "created_at": "2020-07-31T00:32:20.607522Z", "open_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-16T20:36:40.637933Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-16T20:36:40.637933Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T17:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-15T17:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-15T17:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Electors in the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College) are given according to the number of representatives in Congress; this is the sum of the House delegation, which is proportional to the population, and the Senate delegation, which is two senators for every state. This means that the [number of people per electoral vote ranges from](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/map_of_the_week/2012/11/presidential_election_a_map_showing_the_vote_power_of_all_50_states.html) 500,000 people per electoral vote for California to 140,000 people per electoral vote for Wyoming. It is thus possible for a candidate to lose the popular vote but still win the electoral college and become president.\n\nIn recent years, the electoral college [has benefited the Republican party](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/17/20868790/republicans-lose-popular-vote-win-electoral-college), because it gives more electors proportionally to smaller states, which skew Republican. A president losing the popular vote and winning the election has [happened four times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote#1824:_John_Quincy_Adams) since all electors were popularly elected: Hayes in 1876, Harrison in 1888, Bush in 2000, and Trump in 2016.\n\n**If the Republican candidate wins the electoral college in 2020, will they lose the popular vote?**\n\nThis resolves according to the figures listed on [Dave Leip's US Election Atlas](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/) after the electoral college votes have been certified by Congress. The electoral college winner and popular vote winner are considered to be those with the plurality of electoral votes and popular votes, respectively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4908, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604352893.958726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604352893.958726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.7530263505183236 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037383572719879117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8637423458142399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"start_time": 1604352894.01675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07740340530911927, 0.9225965946908807 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 235, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4906, "title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?", "short_title": "Dementia diagnosis Joe Biden", "url_title": "Dementia diagnosis Joe Biden", "slug": "dementia-diagnosis-joe-biden", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-30T00:33:34.671622Z", "published_at": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.545922Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 217, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4906, "title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?", "created_at": "2020-07-30T00:33:34.671622Z", "open_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-03T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-03T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.\n\nFrom [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),\n\n> There is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should \"choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.\n\nSome, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a \"healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president.\" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. \n\nAt one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), \"I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. 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"resolution_criteria": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \n\nGPT-3 is a machine learning language model developed and [announced by OpenAI](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) in May 2020. It is a 175 billion-parameter model trained on a large corpus of text, and has proven [surprisingly capable](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/07/20/1005454/openai-machine-learning-language-generator-gpt-3-nlp/).\n\nGPT-3 has not definitely not reached intelligence parity with humans, as defined, for example, by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). *But has GPT-3 achieved (text-based) intelligence parity with a human 4th grader?*\n\nAssume that prior to 2021, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three experts will collaboratively craft a set of 20 questions to be put to both GPT-3 and three humans. \n\nThe humans will be relatively typical 4th grade (aged 9-10) students with above average grades while not being particularly precocious (but being willing to take a 20-question test) chosen independently of the questioners. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested group of three graders, averaged over the three graders.\n\nGPT-3 will be run with settings (chosen below) intended to optimize its performance. Each question will be answered three times by GPT-3, and the scores of the three trials averaged. \n\n***Question resolves positively if the total of averaged GPT-3 scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2021.***\n\nResolution is ambiguous if no such text is administered prior to 2021-01-01.\n\nSome fine print:\n\n- All questions will be given in text form, advantaging GPT-3. \n\n- The 20 questions will be chosen *to advantage the humans.* All topics and question types are fair game, but:\n\n- This is not a Turing test meant to distinguish GPT-3 from 4th graders, but rather a test of who/what answers questions *correctly*. That is, questions should be such that both GTP-3 and the 4th graders would be easily and objectively outperformed by, say, human graduate students. Questions will be scored (0-2) as incorrect, partial credit, or correct.\n\n- Judges will be requested not to be prejudiced one way or another even if they can discern who/what is giving which answers. To help, scoring will be done with the identities of the respondents scrambled for each question (rather than all answers from one respondent scored at once.)\n\n- GPT-3's questions will be given through a \"wrangler\" who is experienced with and has access to GPT-3 and can choose settings and \"prime\" the system using at most 2048 characters of text (determined prior to knowing any of the questions), and supplement each question with up to 32 characters of non-leading text that is the same for each question and chosen in advance. (For example \"Teacher: \" to form a student-teacher dialogue.)\n\n- The 4th graders can have as much time as they like to type their replies, but cannot get help or look online for answers, nor use external aids like pencil and paper.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4903, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609529884.539265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609529884.539265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.26534565662166887 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0809933869218034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.09547571880789105, 0.009072730802196111, 0.0, 0.17039382781581086, 0.262625320860213, 0.218054596716456, 0.00036646777991410795, 0.01550759793289652, 0.704493462580947, 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would kill millions of people, perhaps 100 million according to some claims, and displace even more. Up to ~400 million people live downstream of the dam.\n\nIt would arguably be the biggest non-pandemic disaster in history and have devastating second-order effects, including:\n\n> exacerbation of the coronavirus, famine, nuclear radiation worse than Fukushima, further instability in Great Power dynamics, and global economic depression/collapse. \n\nIt is no exaggeration to say that a sudden collapse of this dam could be the spark of cascading civilizational collapse. It is worth examining even if the risk is small.\n\nFrom [the National Review](https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-risks-of-chinas-three-gorges-dams-flooding/):\n\n> China has been suffering through record rains the past weeks, leading to the worst flooding in the country in decades. There is little relief in sight, and the Yangtze River is now above flood level, according to China’s Ministry of Water Resources. A few days ago, officials admitted that certain “peripheral” structures of the massive Three Gorges Dam deformed due to the building water pressure. Stunning pictures of water being released to relieve pressure are raising the specter of whether the entire dam could fail (some good photos here). Some online satellite photos purporting to show the buckling of the dam, however, should be viewed with skepticism.\n\n> Still, the damage that has already occurred from the record deluge is significant, with numerous cities upriver from the dam already flooded[...]\n\n> All that would be dwarfed if the Three Gorges Dam failed. The dam was built from 1994 to 2006, at a cost of $31 billion and displacing 1.4 million people for its construction, precisely to lessen the risk of devastating flooding along the Yangtze, a perennial problem in China since ancient times. The river’s basin accounts for nearly half of China’s agricultural output, and it runs through major cities, such as Wuhan, with 10 million people.\n\n\n> Chinese authorities have already evacuated 38 million people downriver. The dam can hold back waters to a level of 175 meters above sea level; according to the Bureau of Hydrology of the Chanjiang (Yangtze) Water Resources Commission, the latest (Friday) height at the dam was 158.85 meters, down from 164 meters on Tuesday. Yet more rain is predicted, and if smaller, older dams upriver from Three Gorges overflow or fail, then the pressure on the main dam could quickly overwhelm either its capacity or even its structural integrity.\n\n> While an outright failure of the dam may not be the primary danger, nonetheless its geopolitical consequences are staggering to contemplate. It would be a black swan of epic proportions, China’s Chernobyl moment. A tsunami-like wave from a breach in the Three Gorges Dam could wipe out millions of acres of farmland right before the autumn harvest, possibly leading to famine-like conditions. As it is also the world’s largest hydroelectric power station, a failure would lead to huge power outages. Low-lying cities of millions along the Yangtze’s banks cities could become uninhabitable and the death toll could be staggering.\n\n\nSee [the Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Gb75vq4XvotmXw6Cn/will-three-gorges-dam-collapse-and-kill-millions) for more info and discussion. \n\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 10 news media sources report that at least 10,000 people died due to flooding as a result of Three Gorges Dam collapsing in 2020, otherwise negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4900, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609391216.927078, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609391216.927078, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": 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"user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4896, "title": "Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?", "created_at": "2020-07-24T23:48:34.533834Z", "open_time": "2020-07-31T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-02T08:11:40.083663Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-02T08:11:40.083663Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T09:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T09:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-04T09:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A similar question to this was asked [in 2016](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/304/will-538-ace-the-2016-us-presidential-electoral-map/).\n\nThe fivethirtyeight.com team, lead by Nate Silver, was able to predict exactly the 2012 state-by-state electoral map for the presidential election. In 2008 their prediction missed on only a single state, Indiana, which Obama won by a 0.1% margin. However, in 2016, they missed several states -- such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconcin -- ultimately missing the final election outcome.\n\nSee for example [this writeup on Mashable](https://mashable.com/2012/11/07/nate-silver-wins/) after his 2012 predictions aced the electoral map.\n\n**Will the 538 model repeat its 2012 success and assign greater than 50% probability to the correct outcome in every state and electoral district?**\n\nThis will resolve as positive if the final prediction from fivethirtyeight.com before the election matches exactly the electoral results post-election for each state. In other words FiveThirtyEight must predict the modal outcome for the election as being the exact real outcome that actually happened. (Maine and Nebraska allow their electoral votes to be split; for these two states, success requires all the districts to be called correctly.) If the site has multiple prediction models showing as of the day before the election, whichever is highlighted as their best pick will be used.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4896, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604388711.231291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604388711.231291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07480846035616338 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.5697334127602365, 1.0979320183781227, 2.2376589133076212, 2.294605843587672, 2.5847861329731083, 1.6946569236781193, 1.1092691808366963, 0.21814906493143835, 0.01111780621856027, 0.5831575270592235, 0.04337286817914048, 0.37622728841735986, 0.0, 0.0033615277702142223, 0.27950137052531865, 0.0, 0.06751809014695846, 0.0, 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"2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\n\nDean Mullen writes,\n\n> Progression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\n\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\n\n> Slaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\n\n> No country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Dean Mullen wins this bet, according to the [Long Now Foundation](http://longbets.org/780/). If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nAccording to the Long Now Foundation, the rules are specified as follows,\n\n> 1. The bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.\n\n> 2. A slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.\n\n> 3. The legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4894, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762818114.567386, "end_time": 1765897509.488008, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762818114.567386, "end_time": 1765897509.488008, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1460174854634961 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6788062773671363, 0.0, 0.8807299230690194, 0.9387124664479816, 0.5806110624547203, 2.2171210732749618, 0.0, 0.3917019996792684, 0.7546138967652279, 0.2153730452690045, 2.1274030194239186, 0.06449926113694789, 0.620572882613493, 0.3645648957485751, 0.45120860633737064, 1.5684901808299356, 0.09352845379090119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33540091703611874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017175512748169287, 0.015061754745690714, 0.05301110107094136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005034190088132767, 0.024857065371296127, 0.0, 0.006043168560687309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04322127578775498, 0.33905283347288273, 0.0, 0.03492060446249783, 0.0, 0.1698499412575147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7250745315089938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022056491803213008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003341999642790191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21564328479102138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001469195406109808, 0.027921591804636593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27144266175998527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12168712976649625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287648.197409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287648.197409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9720958676409511, 0.027904132359048872 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 167, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\n\nDean Mullen writes,\n\n> Progression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\n\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\n\n> Slaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\n\n> No country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me." }, { "id": 4892, "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?", "short_title": "Transformers as LM SOTA in 2025", "url_title": "Transformers as LM SOTA in 2025", "slug": "transformers-as-lm-sota-in-2025", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-24T21:17:19.420758Z", "published_at": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T20:04:18.543498Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ 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2025?", "created_at": "2020-07-24T21:17:19.420758Z", "open_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-29T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\n\n> LSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\n\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism.", "resolution_criteria": "Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\n\n> Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\n\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n\nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n\n1. A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \n\n> language model \"state of the art\"\n\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\n\nOR\n\n2. [This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025.\n\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4892, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763827893.834241, "end_time": 1763993802.180405, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763827893.834241, "end_time": 1763993802.180405, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9476905928776884 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.14026858604383324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.15958750520911835, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.10929414960313527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.4600270446516747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.6447747757508819, 0.14718282122980625, 1.6251942071465972, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 1.213377280486958, 5.01401143310642 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289671.890379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289671.890379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.18257278182053238, 0.8174272181794676 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 241, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). 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Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism." }, { "id": 4888, "title": "[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "short-fuse-will-538s-election-forecast-rate-trumps-chances-higher-than-the-forecast-from-the-economist", "author_id": 111911, "author_username": "alexrjl", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-24T13:05:51.664501Z", "published_at": "2020-07-25T14:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.031875Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-25T14:44:00Z", "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-08-12T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-12T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-08-12T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-12T08:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-07-25T14:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4888, "title": "[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?", "created_at": "2020-07-24T13:05:51.664501Z", "open_time": "2020-07-25T14:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-25T17:21:13.979218Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-25T17:21:13.979218Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-08-12T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-12T08:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-08-12T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-12T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-08-12T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The outcome of the US presidential election is the subject of [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/) Metaculus question, which with over 330 interest votes at the time of question writing is the most \"interesting\" question on the front page of Metaculus by more than an order of magnitude. There also many related questions, which can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:elections--us--president).\n\nSeveral public forecasts for the election already exist, probably the most famous of which is [this](https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president) model by The Economist, which puts Trump's chance of winning significantly lower than the Metaculus community median.\n\n[Project 538](https://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/)'s own forecast is widely anticipated, but has not yet been released, although an aggregated poll tracker is [available](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/). 538's own analysis of how well their model did in the 2018 midterms is available [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2018-midterm-forecasts-did/).\n\nThis question asks:\n\n**When 538's presidential election forecast is released, will the chance of a Trump victory be higher than that given by the forecast from The Economist at that time?**\n\nIn the case that multiple forecasts are released by 538, the model considering the most information is chosen for this question. For example, if, like in 2016, there is a \"nowcast\", a \"polls-only forecast\", and a \"polls-plus forecast\", the \"polls-plus forecast\" would be chosen. In the case that it is not clear for this description which model should be considered, 538's flagship model will be chosen using the algorithm described in a comment by @underyx.\n\nIf the models give the same probability when rounded to the nearest %, this question resolves as **negative**.\n\nIf 538 never releases an election forecast, or if The Economist withdraws theirs before 538's model is released, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4888, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1597229129.340302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1597229129.340302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8839213432530166 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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Mike Adams die by suicide?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "did-uncw-professor-mike-adams-die-by-suicide", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-24T03:44:47.847442Z", "published_at": "2020-07-23T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.240816Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-23T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-07-27T22:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-08-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-27T22:24:00Z", "open_time": "2020-07-23T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, 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4887, "title": "Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?", "created_at": "2020-07-24T03:44:47.847442Z", "open_time": "2020-07-23T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-24T17:45:25.176920Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-24T17:45:25.176920Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-08-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-27T22:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-07-27T22:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-07-27T22:24:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Adams_(columnist)):\n\n>Mike S. Adams (born Columbus, Mississippi, October 30, 1964[1] - July 23, 2020) was an American conservative political columnist, writer, author and professor at University of North Carolina Wilmington (UNCW).[1][2] \n\nRecently, in June, [it was reported that the university opened an investigation into whether he had lied on his resume](https://www.wect.com/2020/06/08/questions-raised-about-potentially-misleading-or-falsified-information-controversial-professors-resume/):\n\n>WILMINGTON, N.C. (WECT) - Mike Adams has survived multiple calls for his termination. The UNC-Wilmington criminology and sociology professor sued his employer — and won — after the university tried to deny him tenure over public statements that many found to be racist, misogynistic, and homophobic. Some viewed the now-tenured professor as untouchable because of first amendment protections of his free speech, but new questions about his resume - now being refuted by Adams after this story was originally published - could change that.\n\n>WECT has confirmed the accuracy of some of the information listed on Adams’ resume is, at best, questionable. WECT has further confirmed providing misleading or false information to the university could be a fireable offense under UNCW policy.\n\n\nYesterday, July 23, 2020, [it was reported that he had been found death in his home](https://www.wect.com/2020/07/23/details-scarce-body-removed-new-hanover-co-home-surrounded-by-crime-scene-tape/). The police were vague on the cause:\n\n>Officials have confirmed the identity of the body but provided no further information about what may have happened.\n\n**Resolved: did Adams die by suicide?**\n\n- This question resolves positively if the assigned coroner rules it was a probable or definite suicide.\n- If there are multiple released coroner reports of equal status (i.e., later one does not overrule the earlier one), or the report is unclear on the cause of death, the question resolves as ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4887, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1595895331.724818, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1595895331.724818, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], 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"will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-23T22:11:01.750626Z", "published_at": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T00:48:55.637488Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4883, "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?", "created_at": "2020-07-23T22:11:01.750626Z", "open_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-29T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n\n* Amazon Mechanical Turk workers\n\n* Redditors on /r/samplesize\n\n* A large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n\n* Some other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\n\nasking them \n\n> In your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\n\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \n\nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed *before* the trend is considered to have begun.\n\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is *another* survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\n\n> If your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\n\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4883, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762556398.013621, "end_time": 1766315156.650113, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.2941849250774023 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762556398.013621, "end_time": 1766315156.650113, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.2941849250774023 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7058150749225978, 0.2941849250774023 ], "means": [ 0.33969561593134195 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2985358003144163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.41066324726739245, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.5063524247540274, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9254483468065349, 0.3877788094234245, 0.0, 0.0, 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"open_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": 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"2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)\n\n> an American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.\n\nA host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view).", "resolution_criteria": "**Will any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?**\n\nThe list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:\n\n* [minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - minds.com\n* [voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - voat.co\n* [steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - steemit.com\n* [papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - papaly.com\n* [saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - saidit.net\n* [notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - notabug.io\n* [snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - snapzu.com\n* [ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - ruqqus.com\n\nFor reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4882, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763839632.719447, "end_time": 1764266738.918286, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 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of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view)." }, { "id": 4876, "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", "short_title": "100B Param Language Model", "url_title": "100B Param Language Model", "slug": "100b-param-language-model", "author_id": 103304, "author_username": "isinlor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-23T15:38:45.345380Z", "published_at": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.065543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-23T03:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-23T03:44:00Z", "open_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 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"category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4876, "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", "created_at": "2020-07-23T15:38:45.345380Z", "open_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-17T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-17T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-23T03:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-23T03:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-23T03:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\n\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\n\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.", "resolution_criteria": "This question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\n\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\n\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1617121937.236592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1617121937.236592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5807203501845918 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033186276747047033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07538866801196019, 0.0, 0.020655434800179992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45978234142997154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09549831337854804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24078274270001526, 0.5805438574528169, 0.05870557476045682, 0.0, 0.2670874552751179, 1.9277858371259815, 0.7067191949112036, 0.6813708105344584, 0.3732026023739936, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5212465720712753, 0.34946576266536805, 0.7370646316360566, 1.425814739353524, 0.0, 0.4159242870145984, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.03365548811464179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.51913907251585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017206765638407475, 0.0, 0.22045724352962418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024521526059856833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16378110850070704 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.5875069177247605, "coverage": 0.9978598765679398, "baseline_score": -2.759786877337747, "spot_peer_score": -3.2353904281043584, "peer_archived_score": 2.5875069177247605, "baseline_archived_score": -2.759786877337747, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.2353904281043584 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1617121937.27655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1617121937.27655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3948890118600702, 0.6051109881399298 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. 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An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model." }, { "id": 4874, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "short-fuse-will-the-three-gorges-dam-experience-a-partial-failure-before-the-end-of-september", "author_id": 113008, "author_username": "minnow_beacon", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-23T15:28:42.493278Z", "published_at": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.674202Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 40, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-09-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-01T10:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-01T10:04:00Z", "open_time": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4874, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?", "created_at": "2020-07-23T15:28:42.493278Z", "open_time": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-26T06:27:57.955073Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-26T06:27:57.955073Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-10-01T10:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-01T10:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-10-01T10:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-09-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "At the time of writing, [The Three Gorges Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam) is nearly full, and has experienced some [\"deformation\"](https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/three-gorges-dam-deformed-but-safe-say-operators/). A partial failure of the dam could be catastrophic for the hundreds of millions of people who live downstream of the dam. Due to the deformation and ongoing full release of water, there is [some speculation about failure.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/worst-flooding-in-decades-raises-concerns-over-chinas-three-gorges-dam-11595337875) \n\nThis question asks:\n\n**Will there be a partial or complete failure of the Three Gorges Dam before the end of September?**\n\nResolution will be by credible media reports, for positive resolution the reports must indicate that a failure occured before midnight (local time) on 2020/09/30.\n\nFailure as a result of deliberate human action with the intent to cause it, for example sabotage or terrorist activity, triggers ambiguous resolution.\n\nIn the case of conflicting media reports, a call can be made by a Metaculus Admin, though in this case they may choose to resolve as Ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4874, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1598930595.66965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": 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null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,\n\n> a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.\n\nThe profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:\n\n> The fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which 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But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. 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But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. 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"From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores,\n\n> A paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms.\n\n> In machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data.\n\n> The photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures.\n\nThe abstract from the [paper](https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0001942) reads, \n\n> While several photonic neural network designs have been explored, a photonic tensor core to perform tensor operations is yet to be implemented. In this manuscript, we introduce an integrated photonics-based tensor core unit by strategically utilizing (i) photonic parallelism via wavelength division multiplexing, (ii) high 2 peta-operations-per-second throughputs enabled by tens of picosecond-short delays from optoelectronics and compact photonic integrated circuitry, and (iii) near-zero static power-consuming novel photonic multi-state memories based on phase-change materials featuring vanishing losses in the amorphous state. Combining these physical synergies of material, function, and system, we show, supported by numerical simulations, that the performance of this 4-bit photonic tensor core unit can be 1 order of magnitude higher for electrical data. The full potential of this photonic tensor processor is delivered for optical data being processed, where we find a 2–3 orders higher performance (operations per joule), as compared to an electrical tensor core unit, while featuring similar chip areas.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if photonic tensor cores are ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nPhotonic tensor cores are said to be \"ubiquitous\" in machine learning by 2030 if all three of the top machine learning cloud computing services offer photonic tensor cores for training models. The top machine learning cloud computing services are taken to the top three services that are yielded by the DuckDuckGo search, \"machine learning cloud computing service\" (If DuckDuckGo is no longer available, the following take their place in order of priority: Google, Bing).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4872, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762968219.6576, "end_time": 1764076387.105531, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762968219.6576, "end_time": 1764076387.105531, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10529569044229133 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.34946576266536805, 0.5113597548898016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7370646316360566, 1.5193568342709853, 2.1094829267336923, 0.5805438574528169, 0.6292630324472235, 1.60915664766044, 0.6573801911886175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.581551903919859, 0.0, 1.5294080096965823, 0.07538866801196019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14772949571888752, 0.1991045641531713, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09092494175912408, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020655434800179992, 0.0, 0.024521526059856833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028841894683954285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31967846996806076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08496097501576635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289216.267028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289216.267028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9564307880288366, 0.04356921197116338 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 250, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores,\n\n> A paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms.\n\n> In machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data.\n\n> The photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures.\n\nThe abstract from the [paper](https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0001942) reads, \n\n> While several photonic neural network designs have been explored, a photonic tensor core to perform tensor operations is yet to be implemented. In this manuscript, we introduce an integrated photonics-based tensor core unit by strategically utilizing (i) photonic parallelism via wavelength division multiplexing, (ii) high 2 peta-operations-per-second throughputs enabled by tens of picosecond-short delays from optoelectronics and compact photonic integrated circuitry, and (iii) near-zero static power-consuming novel photonic multi-state memories based on phase-change materials featuring vanishing losses in the amorphous state. Combining these physical synergies of material, function, and system, we show, supported by numerical simulations, that the performance of this 4-bit photonic tensor core unit can be 1 order of magnitude higher for electrical data. The full potential of this photonic tensor processor is delivered for optical data being processed, where we find a 2–3 orders higher performance (operations per joule), as compared to an electrical tensor core unit, while featuring similar chip areas." }, { "id": 4868, "title": "[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "short-fuse-will-joe-biden-announce-kamala-harris-as-his-running-mate-in-the-2020-presidential-election-before-august-20-2020", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-22T04:14:18.036928Z", "published_at": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.786105Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-08-02T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-02T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-08-11T19:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-11T19:43:00Z", "open_time": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4868, "title": "[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?", "created_at": "2020-07-22T04:14:18.036928Z", "open_time": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-26T23:25:52.905769Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-26T23:25:52.905769Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-08-11T19:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-11T19:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-08-11T19:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-02T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-08-02T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden) (born November 20, 1942) is an American politician who served as the 47th vice president of the United States from 2009 to 2017 and represented Delaware in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2009. A member of the Democratic Party, Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee for president in the 2020 election.\n\nThe [2020 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020.\n\nIn March 2020, [Biden committed to choosing a female running mate if he became the Democratic nominee.](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/us/politics/joe-biden-female-vice-president.html)\n\nIn July 2020, Biden revealed that he was considering four African-American women as potential running mates.\n\n>[\"I am not committed to naming any (of the potential candidates), but the people I've named, and among them there are four Black women,\" Biden told MSNBC's Joy Reid on \"The ReidOut.\"](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/21/politics/joe-biden-four-black-women-vice-president/index.html)\n\n>...\n\n>Biden is considering a broad tier of candidates to be his running mate, after pledging earlier this year to pick a woman for the job. CNN previously reported that Sen. Kamala Harris of California, Rep. Val Demings of Florida, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Obama administration national security adviser Susan Rice and Rep. Karen Bass of California are among the Black women being considered.\n\nThis question asks: **Before August 20 2020, will Joe Biden or the Biden campaign confirm that [Senator Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) has been selected as Biden's running mate in the 2020 presidential election, and that she has accepted the offer?**\n\nFor a positive resolution, before August 20 2020 it must be confirmed by Biden or his campaign that Kamala Harris has been offered and has accepted the role of Joe Biden's running mate in the 2020 presidential election. 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financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\n\n>They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\n\n>This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\n\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\n\n**This question asks:**\n> On 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\n\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. 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