Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5320
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It resolves negatively if any deal between the UK and the EU is reached either before or on this date that prevents this (including an agreement to extend the deadline, or to abandon Brexit entirely). Otherwise, it resolves as ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4771, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606827928.843551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1606827928.843551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.35594405694765374 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.15018792776667578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010190118440880108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10447853049821561, 0.2815528827976068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.003141783533087, 0.0, 0.011420174104161159, 1.0305879180029112, 0.09539934698743649, 1.3679005008897462, 0.0021065446781549087, 1.2404954822364471, 0.08580657070738774, 0.6078140875784785, 1.7253465251562514, 0.006358750110722055, 0.0, 0.03616384093120448, 0.0, 0.18026012978167893, 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0.9990068044338385, "baseline_score": 18.549135175573834, "spot_peer_score": -12.230069697071338, "peer_archived_score": 17.711115284588708, "baseline_archived_score": 18.549135175573834, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.230069697071338 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606827928.927375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1606827928.927375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7807334988609347, 0.21926650113906532 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 37, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 755, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4769, "title": "In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "in-the-2020-us-presidential-election-will-kanye-west-win-more-votes-in-any-state-than-the-difference-between-the-first-and-second-place-finishers-in-that-state", "author_id": 103503, "author_username": "andymartin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-06T17:32:02.454285Z", "published_at": "2020-07-10T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.624356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-10T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-18T18:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-18T18:46:00Z", "open_time": "2020-07-10T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4769, "title": "In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?", "created_at": "2020-07-06T17:32:02.454285Z", "open_time": "2020-07-10T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-18T18:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-18T18:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-18T18:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Kanye Omari West](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kanye_West), born June 8, 1977, is an American rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur and fashion designer. West reportedly has a net worth in excess of $1 billion.\n\nIn September 2015, [West announced that he intended to run for President of the United States in 2020](https://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/31/politics/kanye-west-2020-running-for-president-vma/). However, after the election of Donald Trump in 2016, it appeared that West would sit the 2020 election out, due to his proclaimed [support for incumbent Donald Trump, who is seeking re-election in 2020](https://pagesix.com/2019/01/01/kanye-west-wants-everyone-to-know-hes-still-team-trump/?_ga=2.27388798.394705930.1546823176-138486764.1546823176).\n\nOn July 4 2020, West announced on Twitter that he would indeed seek the United States presidency in November 2020.\n\n> [We must now realize the promise of America by trusting God, unifying our vision and building our future. I am running for president of the United States! #2020VISION](https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/1279575273365594112)\n\nThis question asks: *Will there be any state in which Kanye West wins more votes than the difference between the first- and second-place finishers for that state?*\n\nThere is no special resolution for the cases where West does not appear on the ballot in any state, does or does not actually campaign for votes, or even if he later formally endorses another candidate -- in these cases, we will still compare the number of total votes West receives against the difference between the first- and second-place finishes for each state.\n\nAny votes cast for West as vice president do not count; only votes for West as president.\n\nVotes for West will be counted regardless of whether he formally appears on the ballot or campaigns as [a write-in candidate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Write-in_candidate).\n\nVote totals will be pulled from the [New York Times](nytimes.com), [CNN](cnn.com), or [FiveThirtyEight](fivethirtyeight.com) -- in the event that there is a dispute, it will be decided when the FEC eventually releases its formal election results publication (ex: https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2016.pdf but for 2020). \n\nRelated: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4761/if-he-runs-how-many-votes-will-kanye-west-win-in-the-2020-us-presidential-election/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4769, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604155386.291731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604155386.291731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1403914809441641 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1531126995362635, 0.1433575386226437, 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"title": "Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-new-york-states-14-day-moving-average-of-daily-cases-rise-above-3000-again-by-the-end-of-2020", "author_id": 113447, "author_username": "daavwangg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-05T18:46:58.167608Z", "published_at": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:12.377063Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-14T19:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-14T19:14:00Z", "open_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4766, "title": "Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?", "created_at": "2020-07-05T18:46:58.167608Z", "open_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-09T22:45:50.647087Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-09T22:45:50.647087Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-14T19:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-14T19:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-14T19:14:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "New York State was one of the [hardest hit states](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it now has [one of the lowest growth rates](https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-audio-rush-transcript-governor-cuomos-covid-19-update-new-york-has-nations-lowest-rate) of COVID-19 in the US.\n\nThe current 14 day moving average of daily cases in New York State (as of July 5th, 2020) is [~670](https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n). However, many other states in the US have seen a [recent resurgence](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) of the COVID-19 that started around June. It remains to be seen whether this nationwide trend of increasing case counts will also reflect itself in New York State.\n\nThis question asks, **Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?**\n\nThis question will resolve positively if the 14 day rolling average of daily new cases as reported by the [NYSDOH COVID-19 tracker](https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n) exceeds 3000 on any day after Jul 5th, 2020, but before Jan 1st, 2021. 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"2020-07-05T10:52:04.513781Z", "open_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-12T17:57:48.147170Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-12T17:57:48.147170Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-07-01T12:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-07-01T12:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-07-01T12:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least _two_ reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1618130052.832836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 627, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1618130052.832836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 627, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04406422785700145 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 37.48815652254029, 2.5733130024123883, 0.2853467906090593, 0.05218233402400811, 2.4466928766372127, 1.1850581553241715, 0.15952057110078904, 0.5342695604747612, 0.0, 0.9737227310564398, 8.239902443418112e-10, 0.02953300535938867, 0.04172073873537036, 7.285476740137492e-10, 0.0005276466355528648, 0.0, 0.00037152049393963504, 0.010608852136250884, 0.007272226071964182, 0.010639431512594413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3045699950989342e-09, 0.0, 0.02820500716734484, 1.360844008218454e-06, 0.0, 0.0009211155414471715, 2.0733837224167038e-08, 3.735817335292547e-08, 0.0, 0.4349469639513661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1328892526265577, 1.2582669968376892, 0.0007410714222795916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020870456304632407, 8.001885508854998e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3467200682413315e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008727315173600795, 0.0, 0.00010134477889251526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019998753653744705, 3.2713938661798638e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4938335841619356e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006811495299748004, 0.012029112543557033, 0.7549292484262555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00829992627583278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003519714264697877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.2902461143121116e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11946005771675297 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.696921288416068, "coverage": 0.9997671979973547, "baseline_score": 97.97679410681413, "spot_peer_score": 18.149231242819898, "peer_archived_score": 12.696921288416068, "baseline_archived_score": 97.97679410681413, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.149231242819898 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1618130053.738482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 627, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1618130053.738482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 627, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9926048038614878, 0.007395196138512202 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 78, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1405, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government." }, { "id": 4763, "title": "Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-05T05:26:03.110342Z", "published_at": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.797470Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, 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"2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-10T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-10T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T01:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T01:54:22.918941Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704)\n\nAccording to the BBC: \n\n>It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.\n\n>The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.\n\n>The virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways.\n\n>They found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018.\n\n>Current flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.\n\nThe virus is related to the H1N1/09 strain responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and also distantly to the strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic (both are H1N1 flu strains).\n\n[A peer-reviewed paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117) stated that \"G4 EA H1N1 viruses possess all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans ... Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring of swine working populations should be promptly implemented.\"\n\nThis question asks: **Before 1 January 2025, will any major organization with responsibility for public health matters, such as the World Health Organization or a successor organization, declare that a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus pandemic has begun?**\n\nFor a positive resolution, a major public health organization, including but not limited to the WHO, CDC, or a United Nations health agency, must confirm (via press release, news bulletin, or other public statement) that a human pandemic connected to a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus has begun. This statement must be issued prior to 1 January 2025. In the event that no such statement is issued prior to 1 January 2025, this question shall resolve negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4763, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055974.981231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055974.981231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.05655339093193242 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8989125746140233, 5.83580678745575, 0.3112570121988351, 0.448266838406684, 2.5537569480321993, 1.5030709984745196, 0.5204835791139104, 0.4747323889921012, 0.6238370023614366, 0.0, 0.39250048803358084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2235888191169101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5401544848567577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005954758208044591, 0.506524249030845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\n\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4759, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762892363.398693, "end_time": 1764545012.876494, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762892363.398693, "end_time": 1764545012.876494, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6605496371235272 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14523836356616568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.13444868060126633, 0.24311673443421436, 2.362857316900578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287563.671876, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287563.671876, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3912347603822762, 0.6087652396177238 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\n\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study." }, { "id": 4749, "title": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ghislaine-maxwell-be-alive-on-1-january-2021", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-02T19:06:15.504835Z", "published_at": "2020-07-04T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.582414Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-04T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T20:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T20:50:00Z", "open_time": "2020-07-04T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 252, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4749, "title": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?", "created_at": "2020-07-02T19:06:15.504835Z", "open_time": "2020-07-04T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-04T03:32:09.702567Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-04T03:32:09.702567Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T20:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T20:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-01T20:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Ghislaine Maxwell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghislaine_Maxwell), born 25 December 1961, is a British socialite. The youngest child of disgraced publishing tycoon Robert Maxwell, she moved to the United States after her father's death in 1991 and became a close associate of the financier and subsequently convicted sex offender [Jeffrey Epstein](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein). Maxwell has faced [persistent allegations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghislaine_Maxwell#Civil_cases_and_accusations) of procuring and sexually trafficking underage girls for Epstein and others, charges she has denied.\n\nEpstein was arrested on July 6, 2019, on federal charges for the sex trafficking of minors in Florida and New York. He died in his jail cell on August 10, 2019. The medical examiner ruled the death a suicide, although Epstein's lawyers have disputed the ruling, and there has been huge public skepticism about the true cause of his death, such that the phrase \"[Jeffrey Epstein did not kill himself](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epstein_didn%27t_kill_himself)\" has become a meme.\n\nOn July 2 2020, [Maxwell was arrested by the FBI in New Hampshire,](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53268218) and is facing [multiple felony charges.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/ghislaine-maxwell-charged-manhattan-federal-court-conspiring-jeffrey-epstein-sexually)\n\nThis question asks: **Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if it is known that Ghislaine Maxwell is still alive on January 1 2021. This question resolves negatively if it is known that Ghislaine Maxwell has died prior to January 1 2021. This question resolves ambiguously if Maxwell's status on January 1 2021 is unknown or disputed (e.g. she is missing, with no confirmation of whether she is dead or alive).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4749, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606773882.696751, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1606773882.696751, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9502241571084072 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.028849349348554067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.247760147226574e-07, 0.0, 0.0009777701300658123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003803160781470114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Long-read sequencing via [Oxford Nanopore sequencers](https://youtu.be/RcP85JHLmnI) is becoming more popular and widespread in labs throughout the world.\n\nWith this sequencing method, strands of DNA are pushed through a pore in a membrane and the nucleotide-specific current flow is measured and translated to bases.\nThe longest published read to date measured [2,272,580 bases in length](https://nanoporetech.com/about-us/news/longer-and-longer-dna-sequence-more-two-million-bases-now-achieved-nanopore), although the ONT website claims [>4,000,000 bases](https://nanoporetech.com/applications/human-genetics) (which likely is internal data as no source is given). \nAs longer reads are preferred for e.g. spanning genomic repeat sequences and co-detecting mutations on a single DNA strand, protocols for \"ultra-long\" read generation are being refined and [published](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30933081/).\n\n**Will we see at least one read with a length of >= 5.000.000 bases before January 1st, 2022?**\n\nThe question resolves positively if the result has been published in a peer-reviewed journal.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4745, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1632960158.347298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], 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"id": 4742, "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-01T23:08:42.360712Z", "published_at": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.389972Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:26:00Z", "open_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 176, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4742, "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", "created_at": "2020-07-01T23:08:42.360712Z", "open_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-08T09:00:13.395458Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-08T09:00:13.395458Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:30:06.866136Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\n\n**Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \n\nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\n\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n\n- The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity\n- A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati.\n\nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4742, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654454.717964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 173, 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"description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n\n[Follow-up papers](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-ref_query?bibcode=2016AJ....151...22B&refs=CITATIONS&db_key=AST) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M) among the most distant members of the Kuipier Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\n\nThe planet, however, remains to be found. \n\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\n\nIt thus seems timely to release this *fifth* update to our original, now long-closed, [Planet Nine question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/109/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-in-2016/). Specifically: \n\nWill the detection (by direct optical observation) of a new Solar System planet occur by July 1, 2021?\n\nFor this question to resolve as \"Yes\", the new Solar System planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4741, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609591821.687775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609591821.687775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.05964441510159977 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.182465271228528, 0.1460525578995775, 2.2137627178928136, 2.0120091840908514, 2.058440670828156, 1.0993283100277036, 0.2347137825465118, 0.5259229089913668, 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"2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.537077Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-01T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-01T15:09:00Z", "open_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 132, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4739, "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", "created_at": "2020-07-01T21:22:11.896940Z", "open_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-09T23:51:35.870623Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-09T23:51:35.870623Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-01T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-01T15:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-05-01T15:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \n\nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4739, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1617292992.852691, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1617292992.852691, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.06268404744216319 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.9995258602920867, 4.694817380153297, 2.4708432445588757, 1.2165683969765584, 3.424086859562202, 0.3166706509230346, 1.3819481874265285, 0.8333578612091173, 0.34055630643846796, 1.363962422154331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01351311324224467, 0.0, 0.3623489964707658, 0.0, 0.0012944212189018424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8202403031086841, 0.0, 0.18291589948106365, 0.0028010560297325126, 0.0008362155035617172, 0.08146950842397724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3447062116267432, 0.27345134319570846, 0.0, 0.17374554634249434, 0.0023335645395504605, 0.009887362733679959, 0.0, 0.029948704551395144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002148601638235674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0075358426782257525, 0.000341753265518315, 0.0, 0.00221074160202424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007667667636450801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006411212231190766, 0.007246540173128335, 6.046339999853544e-05, 0.0, 0.0015876138039177695, 0.0, 0.0033427532148844396, 0.005086785708793128, 0.00015076747160505023, 0.0, 4.4000499145849686e-05, 0.003644371897084077, 0.00029489289011714475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010008855991279154, 0.0027092774319570152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025271568342238323, 0.003968197335132069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.8173518413127, "coverage": 0.9989487363296755, "baseline_score": 2.205883201385881, "spot_peer_score": 19.51350602350445, "peer_archived_score": 15.8173518413127, "baseline_archived_score": 2.205883201385881, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.51350602350445 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1617292992.964002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1617292992.964002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9810142126142047, 0.018985787385795264 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 544, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \n\nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases." }, { "id": 4736, "title": "Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-nyt-end-up-publishing-any-articles-mentioning-ssc-or-sa-in-the-next-year", "author_id": 112689, "author_username": "Aotho", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-07-01T07:53:38.477659Z", "published_at": "2020-07-01T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.867229Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-01T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-02-13T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-13T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-07-01T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 155, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 4736, "title": "Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?", "created_at": "2020-07-01T07:53:38.477659Z", "open_time": "2020-07-01T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-01T18:21:08.610249Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-01T18:21:08.610249Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-02-13T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-02-13T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-02-13T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Will the New York Times end up publishing any articles mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander between 2020-07-01 and 2021-07-01?\n\nWe already have a Metaculus prediction about [if/when such an article is published it will include his full name](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4697/short-fuse-given-that-the-nyt-publishes-an-article-on-scott-alexander-will-it-include-his-full-name/).\n\nHowever, that question very much depends on this one, whether they will go ahead with any article in the first place. Since if they are only 1% likely to go ahead then it might be moot whether the name would be included.\n\nIt doesn't have to be the currently anticipated article by the currently anticipated NYT author in the currently anticipated topic. Any author's NYT-published article in any topic that mentions either him or his blog is eligible to resolve this question positively.\n\nThis question resolves positively if any time between 2020-07-01 00:01 UTC and 2021-07-01 00:01 UTC any article is published on nytimes.com that mentions either \"Slate Star Codex\", \"SlateStarCodex\", \"slatestarcodex.com\", or \"Scott Alexander\"\\(^†\\).\n\nOtherwise it resolves negatively at 2021-07-01 00:01 UTC. \n\n<small>\n\\(^†\\) And it is clear they are referring to the author of SSC, not any other Scott Alexander.\n</small>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4736, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1613219107.178878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1613219107.178878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], 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"resolution_set_time": "2021-01-01T00:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-07-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[TikTok](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok) is a Chinese video-sharing social networking service owned by ByteDance, a Beijing-based internet technology company founded in 2012. TikTok has become tremendously popular and has [over 1.5 billion downloads](https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-app-online-website-video-sharing-2019-7#:~:text=TikTok%20is%20a%20short%2Dform,Chinese%20internet%20company%20called%20ByteDance.) and [has been the most downloaded app of all time in 2020](https://www.digitalinformationworld.com/2020/03/tiktok-was-the-most-downloaded-app-in-the-first-month-of-2020-surpassing-whatsapp.html).\n\nHowever, TikTok has recently been linked to [significant spying and other privacy concerns](https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/fxgi06/not_new_news_but_tbh_if_you_have_tiktiok_just_get/fmuko1m/). This, and other growing concerns of Chinese influence, have [made it identified by the US as a potential national security threat](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/technology/tiktok-national-security-review.html). India [also recently banned TikTok](https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/29/india-bans-tiktok-dozens-of-other-chinese-apps/).\n\nThis has made Arpit Gupta, an Assistant Professor of Finance at NYU Stern, [predict that](https://twitter.com/arpitrage/status/1277677320401235968) the US will also ban Tik Tok by the end of the year. He however hasn't yet put a probability on that statement. Will you?\n\nThis question will resolve positive if a credible media report indicates that the US government has taken action with the effect that a typical American cannot do any of the following:\n\n- download the TikTok mobile app from the Google Play Store (at least without some sort of technical circumvention)\n\n- similarly for the iOS App Store\n\n- use the app if it was previously downloaded\n\nThis question will either close at the end of July or retroactively to three days prior to the announcement if the announcement is earlier than the end of July.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4734, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1596167515.663469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1596167515.663469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 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null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4733, "title": "Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?", "created_at": "2020-06-30T00:07:26.483360Z", "open_time": "2020-06-30T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-01T00:48:50.165868Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-01T00:48:50.165868Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-07T22:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-08-07T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-08-07T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "American owned social media networks are increasingly censoring their networks for political speech. Today Youtube and Reddit combined forces to target a number of persons and [reddit communities](https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/29/trump-suspended-from-twitch-as-reddit-bans-the-the_donald-and-additional-subreddits/), including the pro-Donald Trump subreddit r/The_Donald and [Stefan Molyneux's Youtube channel](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/06/29/youtube-bans-white-supremacists-stefan-molyneux-richard-spencer-david-duke/#6daab6f45ff1). Stefan Molyneux, however, is still active on Twitter and [is talking about his Youtube ban](https://twitter.com/StefanMolyneux/status/1277720270304919552). Twitter has in the past also banned accounts for persons or groups with similar views (European identity politics/nationalism), such as [Jared Taylor/American Renaissance (in 2018)](https://www.cnet.com/news/white-nationalist-jared-taylor-american-renaissance-sues-twitter-for-account-suspension/) The question thus is: \n\n**Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?**\n\nResolution is positive if before by January 31st 2021 11:59EST, a credible news article or Twitter reports that Molyneux's account has been suspended by Twitter citing violation of its policies, for at least a 30-day period, continuously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4733, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1596753854.262462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1596753854.262462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, 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false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4723, "title": "[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "short-fuse-will-an-opposition-party-win-a-new-grc-in-singapores-2020-general-election", "author_id": 113671, "author_username": "alrai", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-06-27T08:50:23.833337Z", "published_at": "2020-06-29T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.377977Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-06-29T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-07-08T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-08T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-11T10:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-11T10:23:00Z", "open_time": "2020-06-29T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Singapore’s political system has been called many things, from “representative democracy” (which it technically is), to “[flawed democracy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illiberal_democracy)” ([by the Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/singapore-improves-marginally-eius-democracy-index)) or “[guided democracy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guided_democracy)”, or even a “[one-party state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-party_state)”. Adam Garfinkle [writes](https://thebulwark.com/misunderstanding-singapore),\n\n> Singapore is a “managed” democracy, and let’s be frank about what that means: The opposition is not going to win political power short of pigs flying and the moon audibly whistling “Majulah Singapura.” The system is subtly but effectively rigged—I mean protected—against that.\n\nOne of the ways in which the system is “subtly rigged” is a uniquely Singaporean construct—the “[group representation constituency (GRC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_representation_constituency)”. Introduced in 1988 with the official justification of “enshrining minority representation in Parliament”, it was also criticised as “[a ploy to handicap the diminutive Opposition further](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/comment-the-history-of-the-group-representation-constituency-082214393.html)” as the opposition already found it difficult to attract talented candidates after decades of a single party dominating local politics. Regardless of reason, the opposition never did manage to win a GRC for the first 20+ years since inception; this was only changed when the Worker’s Party (WP) won Aljunied GRC in the [2011 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Singaporean_general_election). Till date, that (as well as the 2015 general election where WP successfully defended their seats in Aljunied GRC) has been the only time an opposition party has won in a GRC.\n\nQuestion: in the upcoming general elections on 10 July 2020, will an opposition party (defined as any political party except the incumbent People’s Action Party) win one or more GRCs, not including Aljunied GRC?", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4723, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1594244482.471188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1594244482.471188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2836508319908049 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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News reports showed most not wearing masks which were required, (but not enforced), by a order issued by Phoenix's Democratic mayor.\n\nArizona is experiencing a spike in Coronavirus infections: some 12,897 new cases over the last 5 days (June 17-22). Arizona has a population of about 7,297,000. In a crowd of 3,000 we might then expect about 5 new infections. If more than 20 attendees come down with COVID-19 within 2-14 days, we can comfortably conclude that the rally was a foci of contagion.\n\nThis question will resolve positively if major news outlets or an Arizona Health Authority determines that more than 19 persons became infected by attending the rally at the Dream City Church.\n\nIf no such reporting comes out before August 15th, the question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4703, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1594363812.326827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1594363812.326827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.3676277707176297 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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On 23 June 2020, Alexander took his blog offline and [posted a note](https://slatestarcodex.com/) explaining his decision. According to Alexander, the NYT journalist had told him that his real name would be revealed in the article, despite Alexander's requests to remain pseudonymous out of concern for his and his patients' safety.\n\nThis question resolves positively if the NYT publishes a story about Slate Star Codex within the next two weeks (before the end of 7 July 2020) and Alexander's real name is included in that story. It resolves negatively if such a story is published but the name is not included. 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"resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Approximately 6,200 persons attended Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally yesterday, (June 20). Pictures in the news shows people crowded together, most not wearing masks. Health officials have cautioned against attending large meetings such as this out of concerns for spreading Coronavirus. Many people believe it is foolish.\n\nSo how are we to define \"a spike\"? How many of those 6,200 attendees have to get Coronavirus to declare it a \"spike\"? Lets consider some simplistic statistics, Oklahoma has a population of about 3,957,000. COVID cases are spiking in Oklahoma, reporting 1,392 new cases from June 17-20. If we apply those numbers to the rally, we might expect 1,392/3,957,000 * 6,200 = 2.18 new COVID cases among the 6,200 attendees of the rally.\n\n**Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?**\n\nTo be resolved positively reports by a health authority, NY Times, Washington Post, ABC, NBC, PBS, CBS or Fox must report that more than 19 persons likely became infected with COVID by attending the Tulsa rally on June 20.\n\nThis reporting must take place before August 1st, 12PM EST.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4691, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1593842879.041338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1593842879.041338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], 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or explosives before 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-border-conflict-between-india-and-china-escalate-to-a-deadly-clash-involving-gunfire-or-explosives-before-2021", "author_id": 111714, "author_username": "beala", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-06-19T19:01:28.582070Z", "published_at": "2020-06-23T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.791130Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-06-23T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-31T18:59:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-31T18:59:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-02T19:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-02T19:09:00Z", "open_time": "2020-06-23T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4683, "title": "Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?", "created_at": "2020-06-19T19:01:28.582070Z", "open_time": "2020-06-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-06-24T14:08:08.719358Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-06-24T14:08:08.719358Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-02T19:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-02T19:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-02T19:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-31T18:59:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-31T18:59:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the [1962 Sino-Indian war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War). Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and [diplomatic efforts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War#Diplomatic_process) to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued to persist resulting in incidents such as [clashes in 1967](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#Nathu_La_and_Cho_La_clashes_of_1967) and [a military standoff in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#The_Doklam_Military_Standoff_in_2017).\n\nThis year, tensions have once again flared. Beginning in early May, [clashes](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/tense-india-china-standoff-himalayan-border-escalate-200527120501581.html) [along](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Pangong_Tso_incidents) [the](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Sikkim_incidents) [border](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Eastern_Ladakh_incidents) between Chinese and Indian military forces resulted in some injuries, but no deaths. This changed on the night of [June 15th](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/world/asia/indian-china-border-clash.html) when a deadly brawl broke out in the Galwan Valley near China’s eastern border with India. Each side disagrees about what exactly transpired, but Indian officials report that 20 of their soldiers died, some during the clash and some later after succumbing to their injuries. China has not reported how many of their soldiers died.\n\nOne unusual aspect of these clashes is that, so far, no shots have been fired and all deaths and injuries have been the result of fisticuffs, clubs (sometimes embellished with nails and barbed wire), stone-pelting, and falls from cliffs. While India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has confirmed that [all border troops carry arms](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-if-soldiers-on-lac-were-carrying-arms-why-did-they-not-open-fire-6467324/), a 1996 agreement between India and China states that:\n\n> With a view to preventing dangerous military activities along the line of actual control in the India-China border areas… Neither side shall open fire, cause bio-degradation, use hazardous chemicals, conduct blast operations or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometres from the line of actual control.\n\nThis question asks if the violence will escalate beyond clubs and fists to guns or explosives. It resolves positively if all of the following criteria are met:\n\n- There is a conflict between Indian and Chinese military forces where guns or explosives are used within 100 miles of the border. A gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n- There is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n- In areas where the border between China and India is disputed, two lines will be used. In the west, [China’s 1962](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control) [claim line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control#/media/File:Aksai_Chin_Sino-Indian_border_map.png) will be used. In the east, the [McMahon](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMahon_Line) [line](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMahon_Line#/media/File:China_India_eastern_border_88.jpg) will be used. These lines are drawn in Google Maps, and Google Maps will be used for measurements. The red lines on [these](http://share.usrsb.in/china-india-1.jpeg) [images](http://share.usrsb.in/china-india-2.jpeg) disambiguate the border lines in areas where it is disputed.\n- The conflict must occur on or before 2020-12-31 UTC.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4683, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604168624.417933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604168624.417933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18418767783453374 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.03941949328360142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6163089641375369, 0.5218276886446603, 0.0, 0.4928102103901503, 0.8999546713320077, 0.0, 2.064582277409783, 0.0, 0.7420898760536967, 0.4813934413759926, 0.1663892557059332, 4.2323491318573065, 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"short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-at-least-500-indians-die-in-clashes-along-the-border-with-the-chinese-military-before-2021", "author_id": 111714, "author_username": "beala", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-06-19T18:59:47.119304Z", "published_at": "2020-06-23T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.526736Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-06-23T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-01T05:59:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-01T05:59:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T20:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T20:33:00Z", "open_time": "2020-06-23T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, 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"category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4682, "title": "Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?", "created_at": "2020-06-19T18:59:47.119304Z", "open_time": "2020-06-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-06-25T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-06-25T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T20:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T20:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-31T20:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-01T05:59:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-01T05:59:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the [1962 Sino-Indian war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War). Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and [diplomatic efforts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War#Diplomatic_process) to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued to persist resulting in incidents such as [clashes in 1967](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#Nathu_La_and_Cho_La_clashes_of_1967) and [a military standoff in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#The_Doklam_Military_Standoff_in_2017).\n\nThis year, tensions have once again flared. Beginning in early May, [clashes](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/tense-india-china-standoff-himalayan-border-escalate-200527120501581.html) [along](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Pangong_Tso_incidents) [the](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Sikkim_incidents) [border](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Eastern_Ladakh_incidents) between Chinese and Indian military forces resulted in some injuries, but no deaths. This changed on the night of [June 15th](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/world/asia/indian-china-border-clash.html) when a deadly brawl broke out in the Galwan Valley near China’s eastern border with India. Each side disagrees about what exactly transpired, but Indian officials report that 20 of their soldiers died, some during the clash and some later after succumbing to their injuries. China has not reported how many of their soldiers died.\n\nThis question asks: \n\n**Will the violence continue, and result in at least 500 Indian soldier and/or civilian deaths due to conflicts with the Chinese military along the border?**\n\nIndian deaths are the focus for forecasting because China has not been forthcoming with data on their casualties. The question will resolve positively if all of the following criteria are met:\n\n- 500 or more Indians are killed as a result of conflicts between Indian and Chinese military forces within 100 miles of the China-India border. These deaths can be the result of more than one incident, and will be tabulated from credible media reports. A death is a result of a military conflict if it was caused by injuries sustained during a conflict between Chinese and Indian military forces. If Indians are captured and executed or otherwise die in captivity, those fatalities will be counted too. Victims can be civilians as well as soldiers. Ambiguous cases will be judged by Metaculus admins or moderators.\n- In areas where the border between China and India is disputed, two lines will be used. In the west, [China’s 1962](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control) [claim line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control#/media/File:Aksai_Chin_Sino-Indian_border_map.png) will be used. In the east, the [McMahon](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMahon_Line) [line](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMahon_Line#/media/File:China_India_eastern_border_88.jpg) will be used. These lines are drawn in Google Maps, and Google Maps will be used for measurements. The red lines on [these](http://share.usrsb.in/china-india-1.jpeg) [images](http://share.usrsb.in/china-india-2.jpeg) disambiguate the border lines in areas where it is disputed.\n- The deaths must result from a conflict that occurs between 2020-05-14 and 2020-12-31 UTC, inclusive of both endpoints. Thus, deaths as a result of the June 15th conflict are counted.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4682, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604190745.983088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604190745.983088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07840635429279258 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.7895837270319621, 1.0925868653492097, 1.9115504584695524, 1.8056206324624493, 1.6992322628777479, 0.48598615350496843, 0.289164863003369, 0.5153518936135082, 0.006437720576519247, 0.8038680832853595, 0.7231248136457471, 0.008989210862367118, 0.04935685122492042, 0.0, 1.4118978516994183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.514819285977332, 0.0, 0.14115056931138625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6362282547517307, 0.0, 0.36118923055942104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00764267295316474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.112598099822304, "coverage": 0.9998838998541187, "baseline_score": 82.08746301835873, "spot_peer_score": -6.100633028482218, "peer_archived_score": 5.112598099822304, "baseline_archived_score": 82.08746301835873, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.100633028482218 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604190746.16267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604190746.16267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.974711645308238, 0.025288354691762018 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
](http://line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control#/media/File:Aksai_Chin_Sino-Indian_border_map.png)){kind=link}
](http://line](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMahon_Line#/media/File:China_India_eastern_border_88.jpg)){kind=link}