Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5380
{ "count": 6411, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5400", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5360", "results": [ { "id": 4403, "title": "Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-amazon-amzn-make-a-public-offer-to-acquire-fedex-fdx-by-june-30-2020", "author_id": 112667, "author_username": "Freyr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-05-12T19:43:08.104256Z", "published_at": "2020-05-21T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.553872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-21T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-07-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-01T09:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-01T09:48:00Z", "open_time": "2020-05-21T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4403, "title": "Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?", "created_at": "2020-05-12T19:43:08.104256Z", "open_time": "2020-05-21T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-22T15:01:51.034160Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-22T15:01:51.034160Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-01T09:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-01T09:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-07-01T09:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-07-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?\n\n- The announcement must be public as defined by a published press release by AMZN in the [AMZN public Press Center site](https://press.aboutamazon.com/)\n- Any offer price, or offer consideration (cash, stock, or blend) is consistent with positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4403, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1593583770.837735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1593583770.837735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023213372921217362 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 15.02444920431844, 0.8412311843955441, 0.13342616160479373, 0.6795881737674224, 0.6052406039945604, 0.5385786762673989, 0.0007681136336700427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08827936661636757, 0.0, 0.0007602456640810696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004943981799439977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3753482258843937, 0.0, 0.18712388856355133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015466976053567325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009018318531417267 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.2722688791940655, "coverage": 0.9989988001981013, "baseline_score": 94.21781415622523, "spot_peer_score": 2.072233805901175, "peer_archived_score": 6.2722688791940655, "baseline_archived_score": 94.21781415622523, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.072233805901175 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1593583770.935757, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1593583770.935757, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9902903329284034, 0.009709667071596631 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 200, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4354, "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-joe-biden-be-the-democratic-party-nominee-for-president-of-the-united-states-on-election-day-2020", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-05-06T19:02:15.239749Z", "published_at": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.111278Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-09-19T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-19T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:12:00Z", "open_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 186, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4354, "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?", "created_at": "2020-05-06T19:02:15.239749Z", "open_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-10T06:28:35.692234Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-10T06:28:35.692234Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-03T09:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-19T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-09-19T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden) (born November 20, 1942) is an American politician who served as the 47th vice president of the United States from 2009 to 2017 and represented Delaware in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2009. A member of the Democratic Party, Biden is the [presumptive Democratic nominee for president in the 2020 election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries)\n\nThe [2020 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. \n\nDue to Biden's advanced age and [allegations about his behaviour](https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-allegations-women-2020-campaign-2019-6?r=US&IR=T), there has been [speculation that Biden may not be the Democratic nominee by the time of the election.](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/495580-a-hillary-clinton-barack-obama-ticket-to-replace-joe-biden)\n\nThis question asks: **At 00:00 UTC on November 3 2020, will Joe Biden be the official nominee of the Democratic Party for the office of president of the United States?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4354, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1600498581.135941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1600498581.135941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9508409480920474 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031379868257536323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.519148491746777e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017483133717597105, 0.0010532741652495474, 0.0, 0.008177074518520403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0000503493771034, 0.0, 0.8655489061807069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12320121444942886, 0.0, 0.4352513045942189, 1.382970207852348e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.2456929165885395e-06, 0.6462202264996942, 0.1787429731601526, 0.0, 0.0017327044803211915, 4.911318421364353e-06, 0.014786212405833794, 0.003966117833230691, 0.017979288290699273, 0.02542337061309724, 0.7599065328057217, 3.3769488012498705, 1.8773509572626743, 1.3106041381458824, 4.481633743062711, 10.630134487968158 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.91763189948078, "coverage": 0.999996466867662, "baseline_score": 93.34455577594464, "spot_peer_score": 1.6441400872752927, "peer_archived_score": 6.91763189948078, "baseline_archived_score": 93.34455577594464, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.6441400872752927 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1600502684.184354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1600502684.184354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.008866443266283941, 0.9911335567337161 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 374, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4349, "title": "Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019", "author_id": 104024, "author_username": "mdickens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-05-04T21:18:05.152901Z", "published_at": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:48:55.107666Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2120-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 4349, "title": "Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?", "created_at": "2020-05-04T21:18:05.152901Z", "open_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2120-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance). The endowment's mission is [\"to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.\"](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/).\n\nThe Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal?\n\n**On an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?**\n\nIf the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this question will be judged using the earliest publicly-known AUM following this date.\n\nThe question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur:\n\n- Harvard ceases to exist.\n- Harvard continues but its endowment shuts down.\n- Harvard still exists but operates under a wholly different mission (e.g., it no longer teaches students).\n- The endowment's assets still exist under one manager, but the majority is no longer being used for the benefit of Harvard.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4349, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757472524.821464, "end_time": 1789008524.647, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5542929822822142 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757472524.821464, "end_time": 1789008524.647, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5542929822822142 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44570701771778576, 0.5542929822822142 ], "means": [ 0.5778029079708135 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5931006728225622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9460640272137941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7433302197058698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.4212401270234661, 0.34823658838883775, 1.0875966602579064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6193042116533807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15777213543695162, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49632848315034506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8972849483081394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289150.334971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289150.334971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.625616843972339, 0.37438315602766103 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4334, "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-05-03T16:43:38.785113Z", "published_at": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T09:46:16.748693Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 165, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 4334, "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", "created_at": "2020-05-03T16:43:38.785113Z", "open_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-08T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-08T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \n \n\nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n\n1. White wins\n\n2. Black wins\n\n3. Forced draw\n\n**If chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw?** \n\nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n\n- it is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n\n- it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\n\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4334, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758015966.415976, "end_time": 1770679031.56229, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758015966.415976, "end_time": 1770679031.56229, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.8030520830456902 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0753054872687024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5176979855146714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000843615062305273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007000939585680582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004334653309980255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07651670791559562, 0.05678690601688105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03254781738325031, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026225027784157793, 0.0, 0.06562776298927843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.054638833510634116, 0.00013567947413321504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005697360404709346, 0.010447377468620098, 0.5609504571046854, 0.0, 0.05036366193966238, 0.0, 0.4527306548954791, 0.026978457678300816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011161231230048778, 0.2854097203209241, 0.11260848112641908, 0.0, 0.0010157873003403706, 0.030339166767088917, 0.3566017490014856, 0.24679254146172905, 0.849911118512765, 0.9620675490114238, 0.0, 0.2863033961133528, 0.4333529498960131, 0.0034786432066948375, 0.11177439478841593, 0.0, 1.1131012734605892, 0.0, 0.24295823405043954, 1.259790220257798, 0.001215666701268313, 3.189512949114817, 0.11974795610022101, 0.012659885875844568, 0.2021010897238316, 0.0, 0.7287744442837016, 0.536882104976334, 0.3045326449043738, 0.8852650715564945, 0.39701002981621525, 1.0898371414750705, 0.1319626377163934, 1.4588859277951367, 0.751059124020863, 1.0, 0.7786219486674888, 0.0, 0.13848240080349103, 0.980374925511146, 2.2346761366476855 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287901.091448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287901.091448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2569154964295641, 0.7430845035704359 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 365, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4328, "title": "Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100", "author_id": 104024, "author_username": "mdickens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-05-02T17:09:48.558697Z", "published_at": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.787515Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 4328, "title": "Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?", "created_at": "2020-05-02T17:09:48.558697Z", "open_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\n\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs [refusing to use donated money as directed](https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2016/1/3/donor-advised-funds-drawbacks)[1] or using donated money [for its own benefit](https://www.philanthropy.com/article/Nevada-Court-Says/212899). To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\n\n**What is the probability that at least 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?**\n\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n\n- The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal.\n- The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2].\n- The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee).\n- An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation).\n\nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n\n- The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow.\n- The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3).\n- The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money.\n\n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4328, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1594857049.772412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1594857049.772412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.41290634628496814 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 1.2491694853474384, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6645775164919736, 0.3331976193267136, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4889992568467134, 0.02510204527210512, 0.12257655399756638, 0.2520683565047097, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.7648733233404627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1594857049.849546, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1594857049.849546, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6369023881089582, 0.3630976118910419 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4319, "title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?", "short_title": "US College Attendance Drops 50% by 2040", "url_title": "US College Attendance Drops 50% by 2040", "slug": "us-college-attendance-drops-50-by-2040", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-05-01T23:03:11.296505Z", "published_at": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:04:50.451132Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4319, "title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?", "created_at": "2020-05-01T23:03:11.296505Z", "open_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/).", "resolution_criteria": "If the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4319, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757639079.514618, "end_time": 1764806948.329425, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.219 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757639079.514618, "end_time": 1764806948.329425, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.219 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.781, 0.219 ], "means": [ 0.2241350200108743 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0176186768885633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.3415440718595426, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7781535784989224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35562099592044893, 0.7764604935859624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8907190711370636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.7197661834970732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.21572547604369705, 0.3058323220141224, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287100.100767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287100.100767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8616034963217918, 0.13839650367820816 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/)." }, { "id": 4318, "title": "Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-05-01T20:58:26.663261Z", "published_at": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.240911Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-09-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4318, "title": "Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?", "created_at": "2020-05-01T20:58:26.663261Z", "open_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-06T21:43:57.000379Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-06T21:43:57.000379Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-09-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2020](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2020/) is scheduled to be held in London, UK from to 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020.\n\nWill EA Global: London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?\n\nThe question resolves negative if the EA Global London 2020 takes place on the originally scheduled physical location at the scheduled dates. If the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or the venue is moved away from London (including moved to an online virtual conference), and a stated reason for the change is COVID-19 (as judged by Metaculus), it resolves positive.\n\nNote: [See the related previous prediction for EA Global San Francisco](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3756/will-ea-global-san-francisco-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4318, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1594238727.678454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1594238727.678454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8150465483661992 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038586475818220903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010488891604094424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19177532655805782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1986382907160393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25633089729369585, 0.008023442444365229, 0.0, 0.30966205628112686, 0.7370591177663498, 0.12426951433661654, 0.005838829315397701, 0.0775030084782564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19043220276906433, 1.0781991064485592, 1.4689106186345515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.638528048596593, 0.0, 0.1500971347168797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9201720377868, 0.2566202950796983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7922460993238396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9271856393920335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40633218071331956, 2.8708285129433513 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.693636805977642, "coverage": 0.5347613482020791, "baseline_score": 24.57078737902777, "spot_peer_score": 17.662310661451883, "peer_archived_score": 4.693636805977642, "baseline_archived_score": 24.57078737902777, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.662310661451883 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1594109166.6759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1594109166.6759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.443730869482173, 0.556269130517827 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4313, "title": "Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-at-least-one-magnitude-60-or-greater-earthquake-strike-california-in-2020", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-30T23:59:20.873900Z", "published_at": "2020-04-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.324934Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-30T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T20:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T20:31:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4313, "title": "Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?", "created_at": "2020-04-30T23:59:20.873900Z", "open_time": "2020-04-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-01T14:40:29.478249Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-01T14:40:29.478249Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T20:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T20:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-31T20:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "California is well-know to be very geologically active, and has in the past experienced major earthquakes: [15 recorded] since the mid-19th century above magnitude 7.0. Even a 6.0 earthquake can cause significant damage, and there are 47 listed in the same source.\n\nThe [USGS] maintains a comprehensive searchable data store of past earthquakes around the world. Occurrence of specific earthquakes is notoriously difficult. However, their statistics are fairly well-characterized over long timescales: a reasonable prediction can be obtained by simply dividing taking the number of 6.0 or greater earthquakes that have occurred in the last N years and dividing by N. (For example, the [Wikipedia list] has 39 since 1900.)\n\n**Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?**\n\nThis question resolves according to credible [earthquaketrack.com](https://earthquaketrack.com/p/united-states/california/recent?mag_filter=6). An earthquake with an epicenter fewer than 20km from the shore count towards positive resolution.\n\n[15 recorded]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_California\n[Wikipedia list]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_California\n[USGS]:http://earthquake.usgs.gov\n[Metaculus FAQ]:http://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4313, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1596200785.424409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1596200785.424409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3066926477864251 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10035857595838486, 0.0011005415108165126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002744236364250548, 0.0, 0.0, 1.324555132263567, 0.0008008874097028448, 2.2239623778655018, 0.11929978980581576, 0.8125561472174829, 0.10112565262504628, 0.9429685281545298, 1.029726392838049, 0.22485229534010462, 0.008210459748030398, 0.6326927340549306, 0.0, 0.9662497694206936, 1.4291325169400233, 0.023560770382044207, 0.6676267025382334, 0.0, 0.24596271568940553, 0.0, 0.7616444955071285, 0.5539404318718653, 0.4502118393382578, 1.0087726233939398, 0.0, 0.005367575538696657, 0.09258855488263372, 0.1848243905632059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7886916210366777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1270387594062929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4219544127463164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16884860283139874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17175714249032537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.6641072277439344, "coverage": 0.998440600601857, "baseline_score": 51.144840479049016, "spot_peer_score": 14.538343530531792, "peer_archived_score": 3.6641072277439344, "baseline_archived_score": 51.144840479049016, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.538343530531792 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1596200785.451794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1596200785.451794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8148267964039835, 0.18517320359601655 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 137, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4290, "title": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030", "author_id": 104079, "author_username": "thewaler", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-28T10:10:37.336827Z", "published_at": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:41:25.566296Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4290, "title": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?", "created_at": "2020-04-28T10:10:37.336827Z", "open_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-06-03T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-06-03T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.\n\nHuman clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:\n\n + Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1],[2])\n + Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1])\n + Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3])\n\nWill a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%?\n\nThis question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)\n\n[1]: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/\n\n[2]: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/\n\n[3]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4290, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762793390.960784, "end_time": 1764435210.207939, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762793390.960784, "end_time": 1764435210.207939, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07664244285888112 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.9685532109545134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 1.9361511316935767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3087032715562814, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287038.812666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287038.812666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9870697624308886, 0.012930237569111337 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4281, "title": "LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?", "short_title": "LRT 2.3.5 Deaths below 5,000", "url_title": "LRT 2.3.5 Deaths below 5,000", "slug": "lrt-235-deaths-below-5000", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-27T16:45:03.585445Z", "published_at": "2020-04-27T16:45:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.740415Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-27T16:45:03Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-21T09:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-21T09:12:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-27T16:45:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2970, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-04-20T13:30:00Z", "close_date": "2020-04-29T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.924183Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:47.505402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2970, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-04-20T13:30:00Z", "close_date": "2020-04-29T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.924183Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:47.505402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 4281, "title": "LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?", "created_at": "2020-04-27T16:45:03.585445Z", "open_time": "2020-04-27T16:45:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-27T20:34:22.032391Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-27T20:34:22.032391Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-21T09:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-21T09:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-06-21T09:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Using data from the [COVID tracker daily reports](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml) from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US. \n\n**Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 in any week after the week ending on June 20th?**\n\n\nWeekly new deaths will be calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday of each week. A positive resolution will result if the number of deaths for the week ending on June 20th, or any subsequent week is the first week to be below 5,000 as reported by the [COVID tracker spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#).\n\nETA (28/04): if the disease becomes endemic and mortality never drops below 5000/week, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4281, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588111047.107792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588111047.107792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.27658720782493984 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015157278973843901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3544827765064585, 0.00809358972054435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1085706597630207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3456744826662608, 0.02759496933622408, 1.9182463469865365, 0.22205743285900253, 0.9210163265601364, 0.3657380098829239, 2.7741840165985794, 1.330341353785482, 0.14415641517509287, 0.37113480134217347, 1.2277013003911998, 0.0, 0.23954639433616837, 0.24722398587638697, 0.0, 0.22757552176293533, 0.04678195401930797, 0.0, 0.0012965554486791008, 0.16247035089338988, 0.5476515573823431, 0.0, 0.26052061195158094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6398735870102283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27805738515481254, 0.5241070816719129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06692751035666397, 0.03081720770343554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014549800105607018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09850035746144059, 0.0, 0.1073881054056872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.584178166845735, "coverage": 0.9633388626424471, "baseline_score": 53.967174000425416, "spot_peer_score": 43.93793136465171, "peer_archived_score": 17.584178166845735, "baseline_archived_score": 53.967174000425416, "spot_peer_archived_score": 43.93793136465171 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588111047.130379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588111047.130379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9124335852559664, 0.08756641474403364 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4280, "title": "LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?", "short_title": "LRT 2.3.4 Deaths below 5,000 June", "url_title": "LRT 2.3.4 Deaths below 5,000 June", "slug": "lrt-234-deaths-below-5000-june", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-27T16:41:07.975627Z", "published_at": "2020-04-27T16:41:07Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.572928Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-27T16:41:07Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-21T09:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-21T09:12:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-27T16:41:07Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2970, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-04-20T13:30:00Z", "close_date": "2020-04-29T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.924183Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:47.505402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2970, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-04-20T13:30:00Z", "close_date": "2020-04-29T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.924183Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:47.505402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 4280, "title": "LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?", "created_at": "2020-04-27T16:41:07.975627Z", "open_time": "2020-04-27T16:41:07Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-27T20:37:20.919372Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-27T20:37:20.919372Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-21T09:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-21T09:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-06-21T09:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Using data from the [COVID tracker daily reports](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml) from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US. \n\n**Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for either of the two periods:**\n\n- **from (and including) Sunday June 7th to (and including) Saturday June 13th?**\n\nor \n\n- **from (and including) Sunday June 14th to (and including) Saturday June 20th?**\n\nWeekly new deaths will be calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday of each week. A positive resolution will result if the number of deaths for either week is the first such week to be below 5,000 as reported by the [COVID tracker spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#). This question will resolve using the data on the \"US Daily 4pm ET\" tab on 2020-06-015 at 16:00 EST.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4280, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588110691.878865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588110691.878865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.2605572424404002 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.004245848529996682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010070387089084703, 0.06007869599900266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03681003828600404, 1.0396594075230812, 1.7754659886814212, 0.1640921126630665, 0.0, 1.2913467113318389, 0.5120299687287316, 2.3475560264499453, 0.6264585349829515, 0.8846265692758332, 1.4212448114845946, 1.0138921990874954, 0.0, 0.07772279024660741, 0.0, 0.2990662461522664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2543874565547997, 0.0, 0.8212403274572131, 0.12716653551049145, 0.08253825588130179, 0.0, 0.01946471143816275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5604905061740477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03081720770343554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0063312489975652355, 0.011600507024289436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14989147521115825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.287559441083516, "coverage": 0.997488959145535, "baseline_score": -122.52194950410649, "spot_peer_score": 59.140091617269945, "peer_archived_score": 14.287559441083516, "baseline_archived_score": -122.52194950410649, "spot_peer_archived_score": 59.140091617269945 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588110691.917466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588110691.917466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9046582139749179, 0.09534178602508211 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4279, "title": "LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?", "short_title": "LRT 2.3.3 Reported Deaths below 5,000", "url_title": "LRT 2.3.3 Reported Deaths below 5,000", "slug": "lrt-233-reported-deaths-below-5000", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-27T16:33:42.007115Z", "published_at": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.882354Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-07T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-07T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2970, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-04-20T13:30:00Z", "close_date": "2020-04-29T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.924183Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:47.505402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2970, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-04-20T13:30:00Z", "close_date": "2020-04-29T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.924183Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:47.505402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 4279, "title": "LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?", "created_at": "2020-04-27T16:33:42.007115Z", "open_time": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-27T20:36:57.157567Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-27T20:36:57.157567Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-07T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-07T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-06-07T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Using data from the [COVID tracker daily reports](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml) from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US. \n\n**Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for either of the two periods:**\n\n- **from (and including) Sunday May 24th to (and including) Saturday May 30th?**\n\nor \n\n- **from (and including) Sunday May 31st to (and including) Saturday June 6th?**\n\nWeekly new deaths will be calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday of each week. A positive resolution will result if the number of deaths for either week is the first such week to be below 5,000 as reported by the [COVID tracker spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#). This question will resolve using the data on the \"US Daily 4pm ET\" tab on 2020-06-07 at 16:00 EST.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4279, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588111043.298152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588111043.298152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.33541046831793186 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.002772598180409281, 0.0, 0.000805507209830206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005013548757078691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3298427716032109, 0.0, 0.8833459156529938, 0.0, 0.03585734392959071, 0.0, 0.010905509822374478, 0.0, 0.22519494629653822, 1.1966607070463755, 0.2664539984166363, 0.2730553641267676, 0.10076806960244138, 0.03226982664943769, 0.0, 3.1056016058207545, 0.1586885385086085, 1.3427536810168519, 0.3928789725299678, 0.9144458969565803, 2.0899430717001812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034322177175539247, 0.5270317096035442, 0.3743328230494786, 0.1882722289923514, 0.0, 0.1009543837916552, 0.0, 0.001218877601747685, 0.07087674973752378, 0.0, 0.5269109968754253, 0.020621981324100598, 0.6421761366506048, 0.208753764822917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49270733728978283, 0.020355522294486672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05351003985049547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007000590723138572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12986291637201536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018298562410600412 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.729343638911226, "coverage": 0.9758896772565939, "baseline_score": 41.830303347872395, "spot_peer_score": -0.3493055993828001, "peer_archived_score": 10.729343638911226, "baseline_archived_score": 41.830303347872395, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.3493055993828001 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588111043.32075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588111043.32075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8415485664736531, 0.15845143352634689 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4277, "title": "LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?", "short_title": "LRT 2.3.2 Deaths below 5,000 May", "url_title": "LRT 2.3.2 Deaths below 5,000 May", "slug": "lrt-232-deaths-below-5000-may", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-27T16:24:38.074363Z", "published_at": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.452722Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-05-24T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-24T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2970, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-04-20T13:30:00Z", "close_date": "2020-04-29T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.924183Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:47.505402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2970, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-04-20T13:30:00Z", "close_date": "2020-04-29T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.924183Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:47.505402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 4277, "title": "LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?", "created_at": "2020-04-27T16:24:38.074363Z", "open_time": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-27T20:36:17.218423Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-27T20:36:17.218423Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-05-24T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-24T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-05-24T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Using data from the [COVID tracker daily reports](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml) from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US. \n\n**Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for either of the two periods:**\n\n\n- **from (and including) Sunday May 10th to (and including) Saturday May 16th?**\n\nor \n\n- **from (and including) Sunday May 17th to (and including) Saturday May 23rd?**\n\nWeekly new deaths will be calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday of each week. A positive resolution will result if the number of deaths for either week is the first such week to be below 5,000 as reported by the [COVID tracker spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#). This question will resolve using the data on the \"US Daily 4pm ET\" tab on 2020-05-24 at 16:00 EST.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4277, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588111135.061131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588111135.061131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.20321663028080728 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.003409649605783329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0065036323388337515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7170020928281433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7680027547785331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2022232047570948, 1.8205085284290268, 1.3646295906612393, 0.7940392090962425, 0.10889105222236911, 2.383993368419232, 0.05783441394281888, 1.5885563230598359, 0.48448820491035177, 0.3158143940860248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7188015229108202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14932332249834498, 0.0, 0.18616056073700932, 0.7672464128916316, 0.0, 0.15257782003983358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09166238998882277, 0.5060368694271589, 0.0018980425029571785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6696260487627572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007807124044234717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012543399915659996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.69495228935118, "coverage": 0.975924359309755, "baseline_score": 61.70210318068176, "spot_peer_score": 14.70588107418086, "peer_archived_score": 6.69495228935118, "baseline_archived_score": 61.70210318068176, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.70588107418086 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588111135.085299, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588111135.085299, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8893384367424436, 0.11066156325755634 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4272, "title": "Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?", "short_title": "Community Prediction beats MP in LRT 2", "url_title": "Community Prediction beats MP in LRT 2", "slug": "community-prediction-beats-mp-in-lrt-2", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-26T22:57:46.479146Z", "published_at": "2020-04-26T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.832610Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-26T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-05-04T22:57:46.479000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-05-04T22:57:46.479000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-18T18:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-18T18:28:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-26T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4272, "title": "Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?", "created_at": "2020-04-26T22:57:46.479146Z", "open_time": "2020-04-26T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-28T00:08:02.963379Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-28T00:08:02.963379Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-18T18:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-18T18:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-18T18:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-05-04T22:57:46.479000Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-05-04T22:57:46.479000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Metaculus is participating in COVID-19 Expert Surveys, in collaboration with researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.\n\nEach week we will be launching up to 8 questions in which the community will have 30 hours to lock in their predictions.\n\nResearchers will concurrently distribute the same questions to some of the worlds leading infectious disease experts.\n\n**Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round (LRT2)?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if the average log score for all continuous questions in the second round that resolve unambiguously is higher for the community prediction than for the Metaculus prediction, according to our [Track record](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4272, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588617681.269118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588617681.269118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5660139186019362 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18546127569376372, 0.008663037296332391, 0.5221560426127164, 0.0, 0.20561265148349345, 0.14984332909134115, 0.0, 0.3959048956524618, 0.0, 0.0216015677189824, 0.0, 0.04896551112574321, 1.8511935955052268, 0.10666096661288105, 0.7899839106380127, 1.0037965100949908, 1.6620346420055583, 0.09464378440008571, 1.4245641337981594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2657344010847433, 0.0, 0.2511459123085843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011325021621769293, 0.014340426232757577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02593106589452041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8554006031583444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5685529016609817 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.0478582272385386, "coverage": 0.9935158853259135, "baseline_score": 11.497912585109107, "spot_peer_score": 12.559607825456844, "peer_archived_score": 1.0478582272385386, "baseline_archived_score": 11.497912585109107, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.559607825456844 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588617681.296514, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588617681.296514, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4964326591486574, 0.5035673408513426 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4260, "title": "Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kim-jong-un-be-officially-confirmed-dead-before-may-15-2020", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-24T23:34:00.797114Z", "published_at": "2020-04-25T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.251131Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-25T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-05-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-05-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-05-14T22:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-14T22:01:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-25T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 177, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4260, "title": "Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?", "created_at": "2020-04-24T23:34:00.797114Z", "open_time": "2020-04-25T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-26T03:35:26.308131Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-26T03:35:26.308131Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-05-14T22:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-14T22:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-05-14T22:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-05-09T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-05-09T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un) has been the Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012.\n\nOn 20 April 2020, [CNN reported that US agencies were monitoring intelligence that Kim was in \"grave danger\" after having surgery,](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/20/politics/kim-jong-un-north-korea/index.html) and that he had not been seen in public for ten days at the time of reporting. However, conflicting reports from South Korea suggest that there were [no signs of anything unusual taking place in North Korea regarding Kim's health.](https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200421003652325) On April 24, [Reuters reported that China had sent a team of medical experts to North Korea to 'advise on Kim.'](https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN2263E0)\n\nAs of 25 April 2020, Kim's health status is unknown.\n\nThis question asks: **Before May 15 2020, will the government of North Korea officially confirm or acknowledge the death of Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of North Korea?**\n\nPositive resolution requires that the government of North Korea acknowledges or confirms that Kim Jong-un is dead. If this does not take place before 00:00 UTC on May 15 2020, the question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4260, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1589057720.584096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1589057720.584096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.021158401792521007 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 17.418322061279245, 1.2373366275518483, 2.2222184187479552, 1.3932074965542767, 1.557157826736368, 0.0033851346675641404, 0.859816197693446, 0.004589179048059623, 0.0005210982006120104, 0.0984620211901027, 0.0, 0.004759718316988151, 0.0746040010157362, 0.00011604946811076738, 0.10447853049821561, 0.000425147233812788, 0.0, 0.0023118258192925886, 0.0, 0.00022831804304313154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013840251203390554, 0.0, 0.11433689492865173, 1.2321871602001298e-05, 0.0, 0.00014598615921448927, 0.0, 0.0, 6.8591904508048534e-06, 2.8213567719917273e-05, 0.00030112585040403746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.425574344473489e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003988563940190817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010297451062377385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3502978866158963e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.349431966832567e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022371106881214394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.394131773098724, "coverage": 0.9885246708184392, "baseline_score": 82.79840266773172, "spot_peer_score": -17.333320242538015, "peer_archived_score": 14.394131773098724, "baseline_archived_score": 82.79840266773172, "spot_peer_archived_score": -17.333320242538015 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1589057720.700729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1589057720.700729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.983951890530726, 0.016048109469274072 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 566, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4253, "title": "LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?", "short_title": "LRT 2.3.1 Deaths Below 5,000", "url_title": "LRT 2.3.1 Deaths Below 5,000", "slug": "lrt-231-deaths-below-5000", "author_id": 107253, "author_username": "dan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-24T14:28:51.724247Z", "published_at": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.623440Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-05-10T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-10T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2970, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-04-20T13:30:00Z", "close_date": "2020-04-29T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.924183Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:47.505402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2970, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-04-20T13:30:00Z", "close_date": "2020-04-29T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.924183Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:47.505402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 4253, "title": "LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?", "created_at": "2020-04-24T14:28:51.724247Z", "open_time": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-27T20:22:38.798824Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-27T20:22:38.798824Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-05-10T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-10T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-05-10T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Using data from the [COVID tracker daily reports](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml) from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US. \n\n**Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for either of the two periods:**\n\n- **from (and including) Sunday April 26th to (and including) Saturday May 2nd?**\n\nor \n\n- **from (and including) Sunday May 3rd to (and including) Saturday May 9th?**\n\nWeekly new deaths will be calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday of each week. A positive resolution will result if the number of deaths for either week is the first such week to be below 5,000 as reported by the [COVID tracker spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#). This question will resolve using the data on the \"US Daily 4pm ET\" tab **on 2020-05-10 at 16:00 EST.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4253, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588110519.981967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588110519.981967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06165275214684311 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.451687008336711, 1.281231690977388, 0.9131052365968656, 1.1444189241621787, 3.5508311496961786, 1.1254190980192937, 0.42258257065165655, 1.4232402297934414, 0.0, 0.6197831482324485, 0.038142496490550196, 0.0, 0.05692018101548274, 0.7288472840026776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20566286060455888, 0.0, 0.004245848529996682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09850035746144059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5628196425171893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.654902855493595, "coverage": 0.9841089087083026, "baseline_score": 86.5184727817072, "spot_peer_score": 18.785458816059435, "peer_archived_score": 5.654902855493595, "baseline_archived_score": 86.5184727817072, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.785458816059435 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588110520.02002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588110520.02002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9686524013230678, 0.031347598676932154 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4238, "title": "Metaculus vs. Experts: Will experts beat Metaculus on LRT1 questions resolving before 10th of May?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "metaculus-vs-experts-will-experts-beat-metaculus-on-lrt1-questions-resolving-before-10th-of-may", "author_id": 103304, "author_username": "isinlor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-23T08:38:33.399624Z", "published_at": "2020-04-26T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.351999Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-26T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-04-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-12T18:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-12T18:14:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-26T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4238, "title": "Metaculus vs. Experts: Will experts beat Metaculus on LRT1 questions resolving before 10th of May?", "created_at": "2020-04-23T08:38:33.399624Z", "open_time": "2020-04-26T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-26T19:58:56.422117Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-26T19:58:56.422117Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-12T18:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-12T18:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-07-12T18:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-27T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-04-27T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[The experts predictions on Lighting Round Tournament 1 are out](https://works.bepress.com/mcandrew/7/). There are some concerns that Metaculus have been biased downwards and overconfident in the predictions from LRT1. Let's see if we can evaluate that in the hindsight and possibly improve before the next round.\n\nWill experts beat Metaculus on LRT1 1-4 questions resolving before the 10th of May?\n\nIf Metaculus predictions fall outside the 5-95% CI for more questions than the experts for LRT1 2-4 then the experts win for being correctly less confident overall.\n\nOtherwise the points will be counted. Experts will be said to have beaten Metaculus and the question will resolve positive if they get 3 or 4 points, otherwise it will resolve negative.\n\nFor the question LRT1.1 the point will go to experts if the question resolves outside the range (900K, 950K], otherwise it will go to Metaculus.\n\nFor LRT1 questions 1.2, 1.3, 1.4 experts will be awarded a point if their 50th percentile prediction is closer to the resolution than the Metaculus 50th percentile as reported in [COVID19-Survey10-2020_04_22](https://works.bepress.com/mcandrew/7/).\n\nThe question will resolve ambiguous if one of the relevant LRT1 questions resolves ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4238, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588012324.051013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.6628999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588012324.051013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.6628999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33710000000000007, 0.6628999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.6457520805481645 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0110688823644178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6840563286527162, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4469266408429471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.06898336077310675, 1.3058323220141224, 1.7453180460031468, 0.11784126533065709, 0.7620908974955233, 0.41171267971638004, 0.4131222775055237, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2020426172361124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588012324.146297, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588012324.146297, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2142606593727021, 0.7857393406272979 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4229, "title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030", "author_id": 106736, "author_username": "nagolinc", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-21T14:14:52.791735Z", "published_at": "2020-07-06T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.257570Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-06T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-07-06T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4229, "title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?", "created_at": "2020-04-21T14:14:52.791735Z", "open_time": "2020-07-06T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-08T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-08T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world.\n\nThe Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU).\n\n\n\nThis question asks, **will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010?**\n\nSpecifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number reported on the [6th national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_National_Population_Census_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China) in 2010?\n\n\nThe question resolves positively if the number of foreign nationals residing in Mainland China reported in the 8th census is lower than the number reported in the 6th census (593,832).\n\nThe question resolves negatively if the number reported in the 8th census census is greater than or equal to the number from the 6th census.\n\nIf for some reason the 8th national census is not conducted in 2030, or the results are not available by the closing date (Dec 31,2032), the question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4229, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762836487.310186, "end_time": 1764339627.550288, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762836487.310186, "end_time": 1764339627.550288, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.2606601989138737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.667196579275483, 0.0, 0.05364551847354191, 0.0, 0.04312565778056248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12899150325450517, 1.0497633489632852, 0.1539372142577063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4379980617599066, 0.0, 0.5018930924064114, 0.8759394317132335, 0.0, 0.1937215029203574, 0.6222927254089794, 0.0, 0.009894530929378758, 0.76544043598373, 0.9487323247462022, 1.9974372207505762, 0.03850858165784335, 1.1346169123019314, 0.0, 0.6008699072359577, 0.0, 0.40350388084437705, 0.02368792724304404, 0.0, 0.015277810944833778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03041962011451429, 1.8856049250709104, 0.0, 0.38007092148061455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08895535332445731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43455049684738395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020262681176405166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006942996711877092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23425169948257646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008334548102400622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288729.931654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288729.931654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8597273053885279, 0.14027269461147204 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 188, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4224, "title": "Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?", "short_title": "Wolram, Gorard, Piskunov, Physics Nobel", "url_title": "Wolram, Gorard, Piskunov, Physics Nobel", "slug": "wolram-gorard-piskunov-physics-nobel", "author_id": 112842, "author_username": "doot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-20T13:25:30.480831Z", "published_at": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T17:01:25.433549Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 128, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4224, "title": "Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?", "created_at": "2020-04-20T13:25:30.480831Z", "open_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-25T04:04:24.679255Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-25T04:04:24.679255Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before January 1, 2036. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By \"related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project\", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4224, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761498074.667866, "end_time": 1765014066.300412, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.015 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761498074.667866, "end_time": 1765014066.300412, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.09487248974957639 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.202850660641076, 10.603447864333571, 0.7990669079903105, 0.1003569306950728, 0.028467103185317946, 0.317014811769677, 0.3710782962138931, 0.0, 0.017603850304487096, 0.07554662646600113, 0.03197586379190359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03201416506915935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002935344639776382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0335125151470186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3005402097087866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03432426661980639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06660355195191757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19368749911740318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6166212469430596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4116237687737996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4333494210241521 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289686.547948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289686.547948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9944366270933297, 0.0055633729066702975 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 299, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics." }, { "id": 4220, "title": "Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-wayne-hsiung-be-elected-mayor-of-berkeley-in-2020", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-19T06:05:58.325633Z", "published_at": "2020-04-21T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.524138Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-21T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-07T21:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-07T21:15:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-21T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4220, "title": "Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?", "created_at": "2020-04-19T06:05:58.325633Z", "open_time": "2020-04-21T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-07T21:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-07T21:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-07T21:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Wayne Hsuing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wayne_Hsiung) is the co-founder of [Direct Action Everywhere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_Action_Everywhere), an animal rights group, and is an assistant law professor. He has controversially been involved in animal rights activism, including [events](https://www.vox.com/podcasts/2019/12/5/20995117/wayne-hsiung-animal-rights-the-ezra-klein-show) where participants have entered farms without the owner's consent in order to rescue animals.\n\nOn April 3rd, he [announced](https://www.wayneformayor.com/updates/im-running-for-mayor-of-berkeley) that he was running for Mayor of Berkeley. This question resolves positively if at least three reliable media sources report that he has been elected mayor of the city of Berkeley in 2020. Otherwise, it resolve negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4220, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604385311.367265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604385311.367265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.1421169534290956 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.007050004292785, 0.01618032019129673, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.6305295803529256, 0.7926465926596822, 0.48160778583507163, 0.5350457264527957, 0.15169860826427847, 0.6676525426826634, 0.3730269907867323, 1.3289078122358358, 1.5176812657887844, 1.2476512490062548, 0.11056117819897848, 1.8807659685049556, 0.0, 0.46221266633400626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6713363117737512, 0.7846152092275941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22070116988518806, 0.0, 1.0796723109660082, 0.23730785012660063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0098042150506422, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006409490637180558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02273102448084273 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.910834854480147, "coverage": 0.9978033262162348, "baseline_score": 87.24892861740274, "spot_peer_score": 5.355492104654989, "peer_archived_score": 12.910834854480147, "baseline_archived_score": 87.24892861740274, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.355492104654989 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604385311.395704, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604385311.395704, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9509916891207792, 0.04900831087922081 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 159, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }