Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5400
{ "count": 6411, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5420", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5380", "results": [ { "id": 4219, "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?", "short_title": "Solar Radiation Mitigation of Climate Change", "url_title": "Solar Radiation Mitigation of Climate Change", "slug": "solar-radiation-mitigation-of-climate-change", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-19T01:20:01.811428Z", "published_at": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.131364Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4219, "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?", "created_at": "2020-04-19T01:20:01.811428Z", "open_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\n\n> Solar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\n\n> Solar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\n\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \n\nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_(climate_engineering)) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_(climate_engineering)). \n\n***Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?***\n\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the global average atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is above 600 parts per million on January 1, 2101, **and** the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). If CO2 concentration remains below 600 PPM, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**; if CO2 concentration is above 600 PPM and mean surface temperatures are above 1.5 Celsius, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there is some significant natural event that reduces mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4219, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750625051.095445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750625051.095445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.42678260324448686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.35543951796698886, 0.6360167605213906, 0.0, 0.0, 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"history": [ { "start_time": 1728289841.90385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289841.90385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7623892579985698, 0.23761074200143018 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 121, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4207, "title": "Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-at-least-200000-covid-19-deaths-be-reported-in-any-single-calendar-month-in-2020", "author_id": 106635, "author_username": "Pshyeah", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-17T16:49:51.786848Z", "published_at": "2020-05-08T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.109900Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-08T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 113, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-25T01:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-25T01:51:00Z", "open_time": "2020-05-08T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 217, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4207, "title": "Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?", "created_at": "2020-04-17T16:49:51.786848Z", "open_time": "2020-05-08T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-10T04:03:03.563383Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-10T04:03:03.563383Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-25T01:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-25T01:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-25T01:51:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019-nCoV_acute_respiratory_disease) formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by [SARS-CoV-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing [2019–20 coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic).\n\nAs of 17 April 2020, [over 2.1 million cases and over 147,000 deaths have been reported, mostly in the United States](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6).\n\nThis question asks: **Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths, worldwide, be reported?**\n\nThis question resolves as the number reported by:\n\n* The [Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6), or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable,\n* the WHO situation reports, or another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n* [Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3699/will-at-least-10000-covid-19-deaths-be-reported-in-any-single-calendar-month-in-2020/)\n* [Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3855/will-at-least-100000-covid-19-deaths-be-reported-in-any-single-calendar-month-in-2020/)\n* [Will at least 400,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?\n](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4208/will-at-least-400000-covid-19-deaths-be-reported-in-any-single-calendar-month-in-2020/)\n* [Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3856/will-at-least-1-million-covid-19-deaths-be-reported-in-any-single-calendar-month-in-2020/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4207, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606292518.766758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 217, 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"spot_peer_score": -15.959435835822017, "peer_archived_score": 19.134443997083103, "baseline_archived_score": 46.851116664407456, "spot_peer_archived_score": -15.959435835822017 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606092931.336269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1606092931.336269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03685010784711762, 0.9631498921528824 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 968, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 4206, "title": "Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-art-basel-occur-on-september-17-to-september-20-2020", "author_id": 111855, "author_username": "guest__user", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-17T11:28:53.535772Z", "published_at": "2020-04-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.174258Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-06-06T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-06T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 4206, "title": "Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020", "created_at": "2020-04-17T11:28:53.535772Z", "open_time": "2020-04-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-21T15:30:21.740606Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-21T15:30:21.740606Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-06T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-06-06T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-06-06T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Art Basel (in Basel Switzerland) was scheduled to take place from June 18 - June 21 2020, because of covid-19 it was postponed, and now is scheduled for September 17 to September 20 2020. \n\n**Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020**\n\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that Art Basel has taken place at Messe Basel from September 17 to September 20. 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4127, "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", "created_at": "2020-04-13T23:08:12.361286Z", "open_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-11T08:42:58.111856Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-11T08:42:58.111856Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T22:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T22:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-15T22:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\n\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if one of these individuals is the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024:\n\n - Donald Trump\n - Donald Trump Jr.\n - Eric Trump\n - Ivanka Trump\n - Tiffany Trump\n - Melania Trump\n - Barron Trump", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4127, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717169415.973243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 651, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.992 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717169415.973243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 651, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.992 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9684064980202512 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04301003184953738, 1.6308266360746735e-08, 1.6837210580222474e-09, 2.0466722613589983e-09, 3.167591270507848e-06, 0.0, 9.551749141086224e-08, 8.377282324128088e-08, 1.9218141846122196e-07, 0.004510197553412843, 0.004582453871134035, 2.0712643403222236e-08, 1.4988776808743887e-09, 0.00018902575199421123, 7.71685624184305e-06, 0.0003896190480333472, 4.123826263950229e-06, 0.0, 0.010965933350930004, 0.004553236175892423, 2.714923230906168e-05, 0.00412907622339292, 7.511330987368935e-08, 0.0047937257487386436, 0.008471162358960381, 0.002305461823720719, 0.002559827702161616, 0.0013005012639663084, 0.0, 0.03359646273094718, 0.003786958608476566, 0.0048205024041537425, 0.03029331299770524, 0.004913878317407932, 0.010978297481043866, 0.0005131322693848427, 0.0007063307551999842, 0.00012966733882526613, 0.00914291021974985, 0.02066206702810178, 0.007211710846784025, 0.017396751239482887, 0.000151954128466095, 0.0034317822916972397, 0.018089944163011726, 0.0002033950367743583, 0.005876741101987334, 0.0598374179342309, 0.0002727701176968889, 0.036819774132153406, 0.0020881564169554314, 0.018394470192946176, 0.017490042022018197, 0.006825149678873362, 0.005490509936434084, 0.029036776220413507, 0.0016296136821371083, 0.0, 0.0016762033379987946, 0.03853092994568489, 0.008932666450131362, 0.0066500538756533115, 0.04828518330366976, 0.003646000263899736, 0.09982952762557265, 0.01304247293245387, 2.952295645174915e-05, 0.005337548866244554, 0.027518467262654438, 0.06005569696686926, 0.031359742785137944, 0.012679445562540878, 4.4377931094491356e-05, 6.972567908640109e-05, 0.6808507400043801, 0.014540110680431135, 0.017545591804118438, 0.082612180545836, 0.14321014615071265, 0.3881985118245738, 0.26820020467881756, 0.0, 0.020622058160807172, 0.06086674812727918, 0.26545197499429585, 0.06248907921222021, 0.11904174735538706, 0.4772923791730368, 0.09860486403667451, 0.7740571294842936, 0.08609501662453303, 0.6296121523524206, 0.03408976715466937, 0.3429453796451013, 1.4689960187386166, 0.8920206540745237, 1.7585904885697523, 4.932538574522105, 35.11328386283554 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 70.31670908829551, "coverage": 0.9998333937812411, "baseline_score": -32.5922372561305, "spot_peer_score": 12.575929662877225, "peer_archived_score": 70.31670908829551, "baseline_archived_score": -32.5922372561305, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.575929662877225 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717169416.10163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 651, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717169416.10163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 651, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.021593647948016215, 0.9784063520519838 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 38, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2384, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\n\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)" }, { "id": 4121, "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-13T10:34:22.398743Z", "published_at": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.019760Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", 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"spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-30T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\n\nQuestion: **Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?**\n\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy **both**:\n\n + Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender).\n + Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4121, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1644959119.257723, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1644959119.257723, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], 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artificial intelligence?", "created_at": "2020-04-12T21:35:02.776555Z", "open_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-25T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-25T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2300-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2300-01-01T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\n\n> It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.", "resolution_criteria": "A world is said to have \"radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence\" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.\n\nAs a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.\n\nWhile it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.\n\nIf no such transition occurs before 2300, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4118, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763569578.227565, "end_time": 1855317568.26, "forecaster_count": 449, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763569578.227565, "end_time": 1855317568.26, "forecaster_count": 449, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4952130277360366 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6972248050941197, 0.17028314796087063, 0.033508485480994624, 0.0, 4.807428700811322e-06, 2.317035167765134, 1.2439440921346805, 0.0017538787133704534, 1.5262447443251064e-05, 0.14570289462706681, 1.3165538613581775, 0.09811079906043865, 0.0004944553306670828, 0.42751725692656867, 0.0, 1.2799773662496325, 0.0, 0.0005253539125052415, 1.7561859623933415e-06, 3.428138762946409e-05, 0.7421947104540001, 0.0, 0.33920010932314887, 0.0, 0.9766669144848952, 0.8423768468697348, 0.5110256104515116, 1.373196228484327, 1.2227658511153754, 0.0, 0.2481194190117302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06411756838546001, 0.043536758498442185, 0.3281164506081648, 0.0015668308951121163, 0.004916726900307071, 3.393451250021379e-05, 0.013467344358230068, 0.8461429102942508, 0.1930522479216255, 0.9921816985245471, 0.007146263205787964, 0.0576342351782916, 0.5178535407345414, 0.08589675566981628, 0.30529642430633663, 0.0, 0.8360611391674937, 2.5660582819703444, 0.20852684352669032, 0.13105368421962535, 0.9748783904829822, 0.08125236080967245, 0.9586409047609903, 0.027542718351264053, 1.004739916158172, 0.0, 8.059597371576973e-05, 0.5338288991797209, 1.2413762631177645, 0.0, 0.8296373774056269, 0.03897285361400246, 0.2006864249201949, 0.3569219361872958, 0.7116230751484454, 0.038144586923492034, 0.0, 0.9661830930652483, 0.3806512473804874, 1.4523471700793014e-05, 0.21379505793384365, 0.0024202868511283104, 2.3040892531596215, 0.0027711872240971536, 0.06564887676670803, 3.930105937954586e-05, 5.869172858991691e-09, 3.0009181336051975, 0.14922378108905782, 0.0, 0.033873364355644614, 0.26179674489549765, 0.16288052322030067, 0.3200106362504767, 0.12765992419187508, 0.0, 0.00028841892416584035, 2.907717116488446, 0.0, 0.0032470926031130144, 3.83315546284865e-06, 0.00018780621697616782, 0.17009638394866544, 0.36207304078605546, 0.0, 0.18817200683464946, 1.0682256138891617 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289707.383029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 387, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289707.383029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 387, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6461316945035798, 0.35386830549642023 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 37, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 924, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. 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1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "China Oceanwide, an investment company, originally agreed in October 2016 to buy Genworth Financial, an insurance company. Recently GNW and China Oceanwide agreed to a 14th extension to the proposed merger deadline, to no later than June 30, 2020 [[1]](https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3063893&headline=GNW-Genworth-Oceanwide-extend-merger-agreement).\n\nThe resolution to this question does not depend on the closing price or whether the terms of the merger change; only whether the merger is completed before midnight on July 1, 2020.\n\nResolution is by credible financial media sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4097, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1593586345.609872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1593586345.609872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025546322444147743 ], "histogram": 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"url_title": "Will a RNA COVID-19 vaccine be approved in US or EU before 2022?", "slug": "will-a-rna-covid-19-vaccine-be-approved-in-us-or-eu-before-2022", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-08T16:01:51.243956Z", "published_at": "2020-04-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.746176Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-11T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-22T09:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-22T09:12:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", 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"exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 4075, "title": "Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?", "created_at": "2020-04-08T16:01:51.243956Z", "open_time": "2020-04-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-13T15:56:22.300272Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-13T15:56:22.300272Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-22T09:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-22T09:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-22T09:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-08T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-08T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\n\nAs of 20 March 2020, the WHO (World Health Organization) is [reporting that it is tracking the development of forty-four SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines](https://www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/novel-coronavirus-landscape-ncov.pdf?ua=1). Two of these candidates have entered phase one and the other forty-two remain in the pre-clinical stage. One of the candidates in phase one is a RNA vaccine candidate, as are seven of the candidates in the pre-clinical stage.\n\nRNA vaccines are of particular interest because they can be developed and produced relatively quickly since, unlike other vaccine platforms, they [do not require fermentation or culture and instead use faster synthetic processes](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005630). As a result, the [first SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate to enter a phase one clinical trial is a RNA vaccine, mRNA-1273, which was developed by Moderna Therapeutics at record speed](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-investigational-vaccine-covid-19-begins).\n\nWhile promising, RNA-based vaccine platforms are a new development and the field is still nascent. [No RNA vaccine has ever made it to market](https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/researchers-rush-to-start-moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-without-usual-animal-testing/). And since no RNA vaccine has been approved to date, there is an urgent need to determine the likelihood of successful development of such a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2.\n\n**This question asks: Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?**\n\nResolution will be determined via the first relevant press release made by the FDA, EMA, or European Commission regarding the approval of a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate. In the United States, approval means that the vaccine candidate has been licensed by the FDA. In the European Union, approval means that the EMA has recommended the vaccine candidate for approval and the European Commission has granted that approval via marketing authorization. Approval under any other emergency procedures, such as expanded access, would not count.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4075, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1607440676.09247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1607440676.09247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.98170175671239 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00010424239163311021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00442860818892164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010686620243657346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023712164777583806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004287750568701284, 0.0, 0.00035718598937916577, 0.0, 0.0, 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T00:26:35.130869Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4061, "title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?", "created_at": "2020-04-08T03:30:05.768166Z", "open_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T16:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-01T16:47:52.303428Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\n\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the following companies/organizations ratifies a Windfall Clause before January 1, 2025:\n\n* Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n* Alibaba\n* Amazon\n* Apple\n* Baidu\n* Facebook\n* Microsoft\n* OpenAI\n* Tesla\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4061, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735696042.422658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735696042.422658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.056155208020896165 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.6855921748535145, 4.700656829297806, 1.1456715216107078, 0.15671491120360884, 0.0, 1.2095187444576778, 0.541678853890853, 0.2412602303344877, 0.4913133892656293, 0.00013520585154472867, 0.8569771408715652, 0.05811979195360633, 0.48062105656621884, 0.0, 0.032536350391486085, 0.4620451443245253, 0.0, 0.2449476012231877, 0.1482712200175051, 0.04555080269405048, 0.04018723000104825, 0.09962054629206643, 0.18687514614496942, 0.28603476946740486, 0.0, 0.365765950691973, 0.0787000215845657, 0.00537591132012656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24184357817725893, 0.0, 4.973945310938377e-05, 0.048546246141028905, 0.0022141635174052336, 0.04788037740009454, 0.0, 0.03986020286712022, 0.014045445563700923, 0.0, 0.0014395050052375521, 0.0021532682531544473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027126387053680472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08352892153066463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005717924048220845, 0.0, 0.11181447799838005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1484264396386076, 0.006787773285088868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.526475812797094e-05, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.53014362770903, "peer_score": 12.750342265217572, "coverage": 0.9998501760994544, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998501760994544, "spot_peer_score": 53.6647838345289, "spot_baseline_score": 50.54198064176421, "baseline_archived_score": 63.53014362770903, "peer_archived_score": 12.750342265217572, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 53.6647838345289, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 50.54198064176421 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288450.50747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288450.50747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9976563091918798, 0.002343690808120228 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 319, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\n\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance." }, { "id": 4055, "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?", "short_title": "First AGI based on deep learning?", "url_title": "First AGI based on deep learning?", "slug": "first-agi-based-on-deep-learning", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-07T02:04:09.284553Z", "published_at": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T11:21:51.619192Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 274, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1313, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Progress Essay Contest", "slug": "ai-fortified-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/neural_net.png", "prize_pool": "6500.00", "start_date": "2022-02-08T13:02:52Z", "close_date": "2022-04-16T15:54:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the AI Progress Essay Contest! Metaculus aims to support accurate forecasting of and preparation for the impacts of transformative AI.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T21:35:01.738302Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T21:35:01.571893Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T00:12:38.521719Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T21:35:01.571893Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4055, "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?", "created_at": "2020-04-07T02:04:09.284553Z", "open_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-06-09T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-06-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\n\n> This book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\n\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\n\n> It now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\n\n> It’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\n\n> It’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).", "resolution_criteria": "Assume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\n\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\n\n> Was the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\n\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n\n> - The complete system was based on DL\n\n> - Most of system was based on DL\n\n> - At least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n\n> - Only a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n\n> - No portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n\n> - I don't know\n\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n\n> - The complete system was based on DL\n\n> - Most of system was based on DL\n\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4055, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762600901.002208, "end_time": 1785501686.105, "forecaster_count": 273, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762600901.002208, "end_time": 1785501686.105, "forecaster_count": 273, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.854417334969118 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8589830425491466, 1.2956573169431729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0850158760827498e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.856031926261517e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002641551222456832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38181184607550184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05023052783400105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07505966314683957, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1909429840759561e-05, 0.0, 0.0001753540003983964, 1.093335741923917e-05, 1.3254028424149541e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007993368758598507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.33359764794132e-05, 0.04476824712875983, 2.691809982005497e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015545292624926252, 2.7444963291384824e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 7.341349108581146e-05, 0.0003516330347203433, 1.7471365417538035e-05, 0.0006748651528012415, 0.0, 0.0001584707141318768, 0.7642175423509314, 0.0, 0.008803494345973554, 0.0013291485825369974, 2.8135760864775452e-06, 0.001154044657233, 0.02753912402803002, 0.05386678993746346, 0.1281967247909466, 0.002632802534690461, 0.010872218992129142, 0.1311723675290832, 0.0019656460032498593, 0.0, 0.0, 1.974048686215562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005208028364013164, 0.00015427945619184862, 0.06895332920120237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03221149844229411, 0.32660247039456963, 0.25267269870884906, 0.06235043956065135, 0.38337620702278175, 0.02369336335621569, 0.009187654946924568, 2.273977796430013, 0.35332415019116414, 0.9365083688006316, 0.8231441315609634, 1.7059388466580125, 5.27693006277641, 0.10583690330635938, 1.5001051987139329, 4.043380873343077, 7.5337907396791755 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287279.080452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 265, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287279.080452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 265, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17000883699215508, 0.8299911630078449 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 41, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 653, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\n\n> This book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\n\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\n\n> It now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\n\n> It’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\n\n> It’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t)." }, { "id": 4051, "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?", "short_title": "Alcor Offers Fixatives In Cryo by 2030", "url_title": "Alcor Offers Fixatives In Cryo by 2030", "slug": "alcor-offers-fixatives-in-cryo-by-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-07T01:01:45.775694Z", "published_at": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.585711Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4051, "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?", "created_at": "2020-04-07T01:01:45.775694Z", "open_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\n\n> a brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\n\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \n\nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\n\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\n\n> Rather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Alcor offers the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members at any time before January 1, 2030", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4051, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740023887.035193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740023887.035193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5666697821477068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09924199395337108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13717490894663273, 0.0, 0.04171983066671895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05451133392988236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3328745151969563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16824568062905945, 0.07000249760431822, 0.0, 0.7986028953533055, 0.6468988747502403, 0.9224385113232151, 1.169598994893754, 3.131039364316458, 0.0, 0.7832012023876743, 0.06873055187910447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12396058890563263, 0.0, 0.5843051095475567, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0107860086202796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.928554641570435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009489071497761833, 0.015977422099957932, 0.004662905996750363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5496734719251549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42052548288015196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287545.967676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287545.967676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.48670559683168013, 0.5132944031683199 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 127, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\n\n> a brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\n\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \n\nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\n\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\n\n> Rather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like." }, { "id": 4040, "title": "Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?", "short_title": "johnson recovers from covid?", "url_title": "johnson recovers from covid?", "slug": "johnson-recovers-from-covid", "author_id": 110250, "author_username": "DragonGod", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-06T20:24:48.482077Z", "published_at": "2020-04-07T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.221546Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-07T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-04-12T10:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-12T10:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-04-25T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-04-25T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-07T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 162, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4040, "title": "Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?", "created_at": "2020-04-06T20:24:48.482077Z", "open_time": "2020-04-07T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-07T04:47:28.146144Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-07T04:47:28.146144Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-04-25T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-04-25T22:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-04-25T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-12T10:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-04-12T10:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been hospitalised for COVID-19](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52177125). On Monday 2020-04-06, Johnson was [placed in intensive care](https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-is-in-intensive-care-after-his-coronavirus-symptoms-worsened-2020-4).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if an official statement is released by Downing Street stating that Johnson has recovered from COVID-19 **or** he is still alive on 2020-06-06. \n \nIt resolves negatively otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4040, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1586687691.053373, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1586687691.053373, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.909933074426245 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019359030614431515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035903505139470957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000776932022520202, 0.0, 0.00039804616147833867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.479248289345489e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005893917770031863, 8.065441853364239e-06, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03912126566837882, 0.0, 0.002254848526320542, 0.0, 1.6770800423366077e-05, 0.8566578768457899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.00960298401018e-05, 0.16229648585023174, 0.001655972646414557, 0.0, 0.463169908942517, 1.3819696921128768, 0.009188415805365314, 0.0, 0.0013003009633241844, 0.0017913283776737378, 0.012018619599522273, 0.05632990834392056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718523267570863, 0.5707686981230105, 2.9904351711826624, 0.2901729819776566, 0.933861014838537, 1.146503704203058, 0.6673123154495152, 6.344746371615916, 0.6105534396515993, 1.535442002364794, 1.2135810051278249, 3.516555803448104 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.059221415166835, "coverage": 0.9999779093013634, "baseline_score": 78.44543271088284, "spot_peer_score": 25.59837042807557, "peer_archived_score": 9.059221415166835, "baseline_archived_score": 78.44543271088284, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.59837042807557 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1586687691.093389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1586687691.093389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03273107847927492, 0.9672689215207251 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 472, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been hospitalised for COVID-19](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52177125). On Monday 2020-04-06, Johnson was [placed in intensive care](https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-is-in-intensive-care-after-his-coronavirus-symptoms-worsened-2020-4)." }, { "id": 4037, "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election", "author_id": 106635, "author_username": "Pshyeah", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-06T16:01:55.999930Z", "published_at": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.086900Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-02T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-02T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 174, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4037, "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?", "created_at": "2020-04-06T16:01:55.999930Z", "open_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-13T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-13T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-02T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-15T19:26:52.519374Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-02T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\n\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \n\nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years *after* he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\n\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\n\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\n\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.\n\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\n#### Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\n**Resolves positive** if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\n\n**Resolves ambiguous** if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4037, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728424615.502977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 175, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728424615.502977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 175, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 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"slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4035, "title": "Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?", "created_at": "2020-04-06T05:39:50.454079Z", "open_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-11T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-11T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:44:47.240000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-30T15:44:47.240000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-30T15:44:47.240000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\n\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\n\n> The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a *massive* short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell *first*... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\n\n> How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\n\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\n\n**Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if the US federal government institutes a measure described by at least three major US newspapers as \"price controls\", \"price ceilings\", \"price maxima\", or the singular of any of these phrases, or a phrase determined by Metaculus administrators to be equivalent to any of those three, and such measure applies to at least half of products and services in the US economy weighted by GDP, where this determination is also to be made by Metaculus administrators.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major US newspapers:\n\n- [USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/)\n- [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/)\n- [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/)\n- The [Los Angeles Times](https://www.latimes.com/)\n- [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/)\n- The [Chicago Tribune](https://www.chicagotribune.com/)\n- [The Boston Tribune](https://www.bostonglobe.com/)\n\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n\n- [What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)\n- [What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4035, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1630465884.30782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1630465884.30782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], 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}, { "id": 4034, "title": "Before 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?", "short_title": "Will C. elegans be uploaded before 2030?", "url_title": "Will C. elegans be uploaded before 2030?", "slug": "will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-before-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-06T01:56:42.238941Z", "published_at": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T00:04:37.420119Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 115, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, 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"category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4034, "title": "Before 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?", "created_at": "2020-04-06T01:56:42.238941Z", "open_time": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-10T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-10T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),\n\n> Caenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. \\[...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal \"wiring diagram\") completed.\n\nIn 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to \"build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.\"\n\nMore generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) \"the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience’s\nattempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems\" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.\n\nUnfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?", "resolution_criteria": "Assume that in January 2030, an email is sent to 10 top computational neuroscientists (determined in the fine print) asking,\n\n> Has recent progress in simulating the brain of Caenorhabditis elegans convinced you that the term \"whole brain emulation\" is an appropriate term for the current simulations of this organism? In other words, from what you've seen, are the models of C. elegans nearly behaviorally identical to the real C. elegans? For the sake of clarity, please respond with a clear \"Yes\", \"No\" or \"Other\" in your reply.\n\nThe question is allowed to include an introduction, and an explanation of why it is being asked. It is also allowed to include any clarifications for key terms, such as \"whole brain emulation.\"\n\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply to the email respond with a clear \"Yes\" (or \"yes\" or some phrase that clearly indicates the same meaning). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the results from such an email are not published in the first 100 days of 2030, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "The group of 10 leading computational neuroscientists would be the group created via the following method:\n\n1. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to bioarXiv from 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) in the category \"Neuroscience\".\n2. For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. (A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact.)\n3. Continue adding authors until there are 10 members in the group.", "post_id": 4034, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763705858.511331, "end_time": 1764096846.795382, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763705858.511331, "end_time": 1764096846.795382, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.29390682131867024 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288868.410626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288868.410626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8532492588811409, 0.14675074111885908 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 325, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),\n\n> Caenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. \\[...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal \"wiring diagram\") completed.\n\nIn 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to \"build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.\"\n\nMore generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) \"the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience’s\nattempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems\" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.\n\nUnfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?" }, { "id": 4013, "title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?", "short_title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?", "url_title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?", "slug": "will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression", "author_id": 106142, "author_username": "AABoyles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-04-03T04:13:58.529222Z", "published_at": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.109310Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 40, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-07-18T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-18T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 156, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 4013, "title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?", "created_at": "2020-04-03T04:13:58.529222Z", "open_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-07T15:34:11.267437Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-07T15:34:11.267437Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-18T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-18T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-07-18T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\n\n> A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\n\nAccording to this definition, **Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if *either* of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n\n* The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively).\n* Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 4013, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The number of people in the US under lockdown has [continued to increase throughout March](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_NN_p_20200331&instance_id=17204&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=122741372§ion=topNews&segment_id=23382&te=1&user_id=e9f3b67458488b8e231529beed077f32) and as a result internet traffic has [surged.](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/25/21188391/internet-surge-traffic-coronavirus-pandemic) Facebook CEO, Mark Zuckerburg, commented on the recent surge by saying, [\"We’re just trying to keep the lights on over here.\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/technology/virus-facebook-usage-traffic.html)\n\nThis question asks: **Will any of the top 10 most popular US internet websites crash in the month of April?**\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the [top 10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_popular_websites) US internet companies are:\n\n- Google\n\n- Youtube\n\n- Facebook\n\n- Wikipedia\n\n- Yahoo!\n\n- Amazon\n\n- Windows Live\n\n- Reddit\n\n- Netflix\n\n- Blogspot\n\nA 'crash' will be defined as any period of time where service cannot be provided to at least 1 million users due to high demand. Resolution will be determined by whether at least three reliable news sources say that one of the relevant websites experienced an outage for any duration of time that affected at least 1 million users. 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"resolution_criteria": "Harvard has [indefinitely suspended](https://www.harvard.edu/coronavirus) classes, as of March 23. \n\nThe fall semester would be [normally scheduled](https://registrar.fas.harvard.edu/ten-year-calendar) to begin on Wednesday, September 2, 2020.\n\n**Will Harvard University open a majority of in-person classes on September 2, 2020?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if most of the classes for courses at Harvard College that would usually be scheduled to occur on September 2nd have in person instruction on September 2nd, 2020.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3932, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1599018292.585167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1599018292.585167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 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"2020-04-20T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-04-20T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-11T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-04-11T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A US federal government shutdown [closes non-essential federal programs](https://www.thebalance.com/government-shutdown-3305683). It has historically occurred when the normal budget process broke down and Congress failed to appropriate funds or the president did not sign the appropriations bills. \n\nIn past shutdowns, [“essential” services](https://robinkelly.house.gov/what-a-government-shutdown-means-for-you) such as the armed forces, border protection, air traffic controllers, and police and fire departments, have continued to operate. In the 2018-2019 shutdown, about [800,000 federal employees were furloughed](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/09/683642605/how-is-the-shutdown-affecting-america-let-us-count-the-ways) or required to work without pay.", "resolution_criteria": "Will the federal government impose a similar shutdown to mitigate the spread of COVID-19? \n\nThis question resolves as true if by or on 2020-04-19:\n\n- The president or other federal official formally announces a government shutdown \n- And / or at least 200,000 federal employees are furloughed for at least 1 week \n\nOther resources\n\n- https://www.thebalance.com/government-shutdown-3305683\n- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furlough", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3921, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1586581747.626703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09266666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1586581747.626703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09266666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9073333333333333, 0.09266666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.11280890506237465 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2657445686232136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45810736530492546, 1.8715337641791812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8176137788112516, 2.515601580666276, 1.312101786393968, 0.38122197246695255, 0.16819718123032218, 0.2712168925010875, 0.5950776742748636, 0.08622329263095156, 1.5370676552411993, 0.13539665632171638, 0.0, 0.6448495805233917, 0.3989552260190158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19607717443287948, 0.7931596589510594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03546724784817185, 0.0014303523946117215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00741623973729105, 0.05880738208818377, 0.0, 0.004923348169013251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026936821453130224, 0.002164380995132114, 0.0038881009225659245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0105689540850258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.558931539873441, "coverage": 0.9998491960952174, "baseline_score": 55.34856965900322, "spot_peer_score": -14.951305371213394, "peer_archived_score": 10.558931539873441, "baseline_archived_score": 55.34856965900322, "spot_peer_archived_score": -14.951305371213394 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1586581747.753256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1586581747.753256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9034418408317434, 0.09655815916825661 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 197, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A US federal government shutdown [closes non-essential federal programs](https://www.thebalance.com/government-shutdown-3305683). It has historically occurred when the normal budget process broke down and Congress failed to appropriate funds or the president did not sign the appropriations bills. \n\nIn past shutdowns, [“essential” services](https://robinkelly.house.gov/what-a-government-shutdown-means-for-you) such as the armed forces, border protection, air traffic controllers, and police and fire departments, have continued to operate. In the 2018-2019 shutdown, about [800,000 federal employees were furloughed](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/09/683642605/how-is-the-shutdown-affecting-america-let-us-count-the-ways) or required to work without pay." } ] }
