Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5420
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James Lankford, R-Okla.; and Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., introduced the Emergency Telework Act ([S. 3561](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3561)) \n\nIn its proposed form, the bill \n\n- grants all federal workers with telework agreements the ability to work remotely full time during the coronavirus outbreak\n- evaluates whether to make telework available to those who currently are not eligible to do so\n- requires federal agencies to continue to offer full time telework to employees so long as there is a risk of community spread of COVID-19\n- requires agencies to extend telework to high-risk employees and to workers in high-risk areas\n- requires the administration to develop a plan to maximize telework in preparation for the possibility of a future public health emergency ([Source](https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/03/bipartisan-legislation-would-direct-agencies-allow-full-time-telework/164018/))", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves as true if all of the following are true by or on 4/25/20:\n\n- Either at least 3 reputable news sources or a government official publicly state that\n - The bill passes in the Senate and the House and\n - The president signs the bill\n\n- And / or\n - The bill is marked as “Became Law” [here.](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3561/all-info?r=1&s=4)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1587359733.577314, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06053181818181818 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1587359733.577314, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06053181818181818 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.0423565421682063 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.4007674463122095, 1.3356789156372142, 1.6910706643330742, 0.3781815753773565, 1.9177198606116248, 1.1603476120073735, 1.2886232815122391, 0.8397083757339646, 0.0, 0.2613409583737896, 0.0, 0.09495037644869721, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10338731650712608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007683132160872665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250074384442846, 0.0, 0.12213964696863193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003928092025013086, 0.0, 0.0020593749349257107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005597961463592589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003228095225742652, 0.0070482942381101905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026077048968387137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.041307060685064, "coverage": 0.9999019415295753, "baseline_score": 62.55503809760302, "spot_peer_score": 3.548173444118735, "peer_archived_score": 5.041307060685064, "baseline_archived_score": 62.55503809760302, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.548173444118735 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1587359733.839717, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1587359733.839717, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9835042833015604, 0.0164957166984396 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 247, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Sunday, March 22, 2020, Senators Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.; James Lankford, R-Okla.; and Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., introduced the Emergency Telework Act ([S. 3561](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3561)) \n\nIn its proposed form, the bill \n\n- grants all federal workers with telework agreements the ability to work remotely full time during the coronavirus outbreak\n- evaluates whether to make telework available to those who currently are not eligible to do so\n- requires federal agencies to continue to offer full time telework to employees so long as there is a risk of community spread of COVID-19\n- requires agencies to extend telework to high-risk employees and to workers in high-risk areas\n- requires the administration to develop a plan to maximize telework in preparation for the possibility of a future public health emergency ([Source](https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/03/bipartisan-legislation-would-direct-agencies-allow-full-time-telework/164018/))" }, { "id": 3912, "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?", "short_title": "Will a recession cause \"suicide by the thousands\"?", "url_title": "Will a recession cause \"suicide by the thousands\"?", "slug": "will-a-recession-cause-suicide-by-the-thousands", "author_id": 106142, "author_username": "AABoyles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-03-24T19:44:25.860466Z", "published_at": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.972293Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-21T02:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-21T02:12:00Z", "open_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 191, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3912, "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?", "created_at": "2020-03-24T19:44:25.860466Z", "open_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-30T02:31:14.126379Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-30T02:31:14.126379Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-21T02:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-21T02:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-21T02:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\n\n**If the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?**\n\nFor purposes of this question:\n\n* A *recession* will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n* If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously.\n* The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+) If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously.", 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3900, "title": "Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?", "short_title": "Large scale rioting in US in 2020?", "url_title": "Large scale rioting in US in 2020?", "slug": "large-scale-rioting-in-us-in-2020", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-03-22T05:04:12.273072Z", "published_at": "2020-03-31T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.741155Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-31T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 311, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-08-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T16:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T16:40:00Z", "open_time": "2020-03-31T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 422, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": 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"resolution_set_time": "2021-01-01T16:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-08-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States), but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots), during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn. \n\nAs of March 2020, the US is affected by the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) Several large population centers have been [effectively shut down as a result of government orders that attempt to slow the spread of the pandemic.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-state-by-state-guide-to-coronavirus-lockdowns-11584749351)\n\nAs a result of the pandemic and associated economic shutdowns, [incidents of panic buying have been reported,](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/nyregion/coronavirus-panic-buying.html) and [dire predictions of severe economic contraction have been made.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8135947/US-coronavirus-Goldman-Sachs-forecasts-staggering-24-drop-Q2-GDP.html) \n\nGiven the potential socio-economic impact of the pandemic, it may become increasingly difficult for many people to maintain their employment or other income source, and as of March 22 2020 it is unclear if the US government will offer all citizens a sufficient measure of economic support during the crisis to maintain the social order.\n\nThis question asks: **Will the United States experience an incident of a massive riot in 2020?**\n\nFor the purposes of this question, 'massive riot' is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:\n\n> 1. At least 50 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents. \n\n> 2. At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n> 3. Property damages are credibly estimated at $1 billion or more. This estimate may come from either the local government of the locality in which the incident takes place, the state government, the federal government, or a major US news publication such as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major broadcast news networks.\n\nSuch events should take place in a 100km radius, and within 14 days. 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"Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-chinese-police-or-military-intervene-in-hong-kong-before-summer-2020", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-03-21T15:16:44.958872Z", "published_at": "2020-03-24T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.324729Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-24T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-06-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-28T06:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-28T06:06:00Z", "open_time": "2020-03-24T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, 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taken here to mean that at least some personnel of the Chinese police or PLA or PAP is involved in the controlling, dispersing, or arresting people who are involved in a riot, demonstration, or protest in Hong Kong. These personnel may or may not be requested to assist by Hong Kong government, or the Hong Kong police.\n\n* The question resolves negatively if evidence in accordance with the above three criteria of the Chinese police or military intervening are not found before the end of the 27th of June, 2020.\n\n* Positive resolution retroactively closes the question 24 hours before the events.\n\nThis question was already asked thrice: for [August,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2985/will-the-chinese-police-or-military-intervene-in-hong-kong-in-august-2019/) [September,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3057/will-the-chinese-police-or-military-intervene-in-hong-kong-in-september-2019/) and [the remainder of 2019,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3358/will-the-chinese-police-or-military-intervene-in-hong-kong-in-2019/) and resolved negatively all three times.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3897, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1592665759.478526, 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"created_at": "2020-03-21T14:08:23.214895Z", "open_time": "2020-03-30T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-09-11T09:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-09-11T09:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-09-11T09:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-06T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-08-06T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China.\n\nA number of European nations, including Spain, France, Italy, and the UK, have announced that all schools are to be closed in an attempt to curb COVID-19 infections.\n\nIn the United Kingdom, the school year is divided into three terms. The Autumn Term, which is the first of the school year, runs from early September to late December. \n\nThis question asks whether the United Kingdom will reopen its schools in time for a \"normal\" start to the Autumn Term of the year 2020. The UK had over 3900 cases as of March 20, when an announcement was made that, in addition to schools, pubs, bars, clubs and restaurants would be closed. Schools are currently running in an extremely limited capacity to provide childcare for essential workers, and care for vulnerable children.\n\n\nWill most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?\n\nQuestion resolves positively if >50% of UK schools (including primary, secondary, and sixth-form colleges) are open for physical, in-person teaching for the majority of pupils, on the 7th of September 2020 (the first Monday). \n\nResolution is by credible news reports or by reports by UK government agencies. % of schools is taken here by number of schools, not by number of students.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3896, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1596748741.190478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1596748741.190478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": 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EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?", "created_at": "2020-03-21T11:27:45.071686Z", "open_time": "2020-03-24T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-26T14:01:14.084131Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-26T14:01:14.084131Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-02T16:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-02T16:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-02T16:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-08-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Remdesivir is an investigational nucleotide analog with broad-spectrum antiviral activity. It is not approved anywhere globally for any use. \n\nAccording to its producer, [Gilead Sciences](https://www.gilead.com/purpose/advancing-global-health/covid-19):\n\n> Remdesivir has demonstrated in vitro and in vivo activity in animal models against the viral pathogens MERS and SARS, which are also coronaviruses and are structurally similar to COVID-19. The limited preclinical data on remdesivir in MERS and SARS indicate that remdesivir may have potential activity against COVID-19.\n\n\nFrom the [National Institutes of Health](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins):\n\n> A randomized, controlled clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized adults diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has begun at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) in Omaha. The trial regulatory sponsor is the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health. This is the first clinical trial in the United States to evaluate an experimental treatment for COVID-19, the respiratory disease first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.\n\n> “We urgently need a safe and effective treatment for COVID-19. Although remdesivir has been administered to some patients with COVID-19, we do not have solid data to indicate it can improve clinical outcomes,” said NIAID Director and U.S. Coronavirus Task Force member Anthony S. Fauci, M.D. “A randomized, placebo-controlled trial is the gold standard for determining if an experimental treatment can benefit patients.”\n\n**Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if before the end of 2020, medical publications or credible media sources indicate that remdesivir has be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the process under which remdesivir is made available to patients does not matter. It may be administered under clinical trials, special access programs (such as Expanded Access or Compassionate Use programs), approved for widespread use or even self-administered.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3895, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1598906899.291815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1598906899.291815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9132407629581234 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00905957648528038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.5222046741725685e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018840507632565497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005814999930317822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023606800042354299, 0.0, 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At some point, the request may become an edict. People may disregard this command, and civil unrest may ensue.\n\nThe National Guard is already involved and the words \"martial law\" [have surfaced](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/03/17/will-coronavirus-lead-to-martial-law/)\n\nQuestion: Before 2021, will at least one USA civilian in any of the 50 states be shot and killed by an active or reserve USA service member of the United States Armed Forces or State National guard. \n\nThe question is resolved if there is at least one verifiable report rendering the affirmative.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3894, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1591890074.18341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1591890074.18341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], 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"id": 3875, "title": "Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?", "created_at": "2020-03-17T02:17:50.221211Z", "open_time": "2020-03-22T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-23T12:29:13.381591Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-23T12:29:13.381591Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-03-15T17:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-03-15T17:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-03-15T17:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-15T03:14:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-15T03:14:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if at least 9 of the 12 states with the most COVID-19 deaths per capita in 2020 (as reported by the CDC) are among the states that voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election.\n\nFor purposes of this question, 30 states out of 50 are considered to have voted for Trump in the 2016 election, which is 60% or 7.2 out of 12. They are: \n\nAlaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, \nWyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, \nOklahoma, Texas, Louisiana,Arkansas, Missouri, \nIowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, \nPennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, \nSouth Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama\n(We won’t count the second congressional districft of Maine which may not have readily accessible health statistics). ([source](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election))\n\nThis question resolves according to the best numbers published by the CDC as of 2021-03-15, as judged by Metaculus.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3875, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1605408297.109579, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 173, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1605408297.109579, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 173, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17624742674766528 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3204936004176713, 0.09257718885161514, 0.3698611494577609, 0.0, 0.9637580630534452, 1.6911407529475833, 0.152147267956219, 0.07654004632791854, 1.3566196043178518, 1.2871222085411111, 0.008854790519369122, 0.31739995280281885, 1.4843234701676897, 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"exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3870, "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?", "created_at": "2020-03-15T15:53:57.991552Z", "open_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-19T19:18:42.572716Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-19T19:18:42.572716Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-23T22:00:52.445562Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \n\n> specimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\n\nbut of course\n\n> That some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\n\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\n*** \"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" ***\n\nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n\n* If at any time after the ***date of Jan 1, 2025*** the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n\n* Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3870, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731950596.487898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731950596.487898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.07271309104703523 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.2995913239901284, 4.386211791886478, 2.6532075250812097, 3.132877344221826, 1.0853238142056292, 2.4658361345547677, 0.28840592529509146, 1.5788815917735273, 0.0, 0.913426031207083, 0.6625040680972386, 0.0, 0.2568242984322328, 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"title": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19", "author_id": 106635, "author_username": "Pshyeah", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-03-14T22:19:10.468837Z", "published_at": "2020-03-23T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.627610Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-23T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-06-15T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-15T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-03-23T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3863, "title": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?", "created_at": "2020-03-14T22:19:10.468837Z", "open_time": "2020-03-23T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-24T15:45:28.142203Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-24T15:45:28.142203Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-06-15T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the *[German Emergency Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Emergency_Acts)*, changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit basic rights and liberties as well as freedom of movement, enforce federal law on the states, use of armed forces within Germany to put down insurgencies, and so forth. At the same time, and to assuage worries of critics, the act also introduced the *right to resist*, which granted the \"right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available.\"\n\nAll this was necessary due to Germany’s problematic history with emergency acts and enabling acts, in particular during the [Weimar Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic) and [the consequences that followed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany).\n\nAs such the emergency powers granted by the German Emergency Act were handled very carefully by current and past governments. For instance: Only under need of substantial help in catastrophic circumstances like the 1997 Oder Flood were soldiers ever deployed within German borders.\n\nFurther complicated is this by the lack of consensus positions and opinions in constitutional law, since these powers were very rarely needed, let alone used.\n\nYet the German government retains these capabilities, hesitant as it may be, to issue decrees that overrule, countermand and limit states rights and powers *if* the federal government deems them necessary [in light of catastrophic circumstances](https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/notstandsgesetze-deutschland-101.html).\n\nAs the saying goes, sometimes needs must.\n\n**Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?**\n\n* Resolves positively if the Federal government infringes on states rights and powers in direct relation to COVID-19 before 2022.\n* Resolves negatively if such an infringement doesn’t happen.\n* Resolves ambiguously if an emergency acts / 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"scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the USD fraction of allocated global foreign exchange currencies be below 50% before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14017/usd-foreign-exchange-currency-dominance/)\n* [What will be the United States Dollar's percentage of all currency reserves, as of Q1 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12458/usd-percentage-of-all-reserve-currency-2050q1/)\n\n---\n\nThe IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated *Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves* ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)) As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\n\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\n\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\n\n**Will the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?**\n\nQuestion resolves positively if the **most recently released** percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\n\nQuestion resolves as **ambiguous** the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3858, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752392118.953287, "end_time": 1765902511.047328, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752392118.953287, "end_time": 1765902511.047328, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.4475867398743806 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0425437050398726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4864311919645977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17374554634249434, 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The disease is the cause of the ongoing [2019–20 coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak).\n\nAs of 13 March 2020, [over 137,000 cases and over 5,000 deaths have been reported, mostly in China.](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)", "resolution_criteria": "This question asks: **Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths, worldwide, be reported?**\n\nThis question resolves as the number reported by:\n\n- The [Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6), or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable, \n- the WHO situation reports, or another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3855, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1587109084.76184, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1587109084.76184, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.957036898505983 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07596905266095386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6349870944566658e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 9.028768983422788e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012866984915586968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.733499220307512e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003955809486523242, 0.0, 0.000253949756109778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009296188013981906, 0.0, 0.03290084302154692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010838361664361995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.350095736702755, 0.000349760912830967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08011600668955456, 0.0, 0.00020466027922642828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005608120203956986, 0.0012725174188212094, 0.016909911275159877, 0.00030804108319352715, 0.6593990082427654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10688741118635267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0937993177476182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051909122003844725, 0.0782931241264433, 0.17245253191909118, 0.0006976137443144507, 0.0, 0.0007751692078063485, 0.045403306782421195, 0.5206912444786118, 0.0, 0.35404628307013297, 0.15761150785607003, 0.010651417937626811, 1.1353711583263273, 0.26364057045274025, 1.467974572134437, 1.7263566243430777, 15.005019663172888 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.0149867676491846, "coverage": 0.12308479218158126, "baseline_score": 8.430792942577805, "spot_peer_score": -22.465363901237208, "peer_archived_score": 2.0149867676491846, "baseline_archived_score": 8.430792942577805, "spot_peer_archived_score": -22.465363901237208 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1587031812.064522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1587031812.064522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.04839438289559672, 0.9516056171044033 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 410, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019-nCoV_acute_respiratory_disease) formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by [SARS-CoV-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing [2019–20 coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak).\n\nAs of 13 March 2020, [over 137,000 cases and over 5,000 deaths have been reported, mostly in China.](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)" }, { "id": 3843, "title": "If Biden has the majority of pledged delegates, but does not survive until the nominee is chosen, will Sanders become the nominee?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "if-biden-has-the-majority-of-pledged-delegates-but-does-not-survive-until-the-nominee-is-chosen-will-sanders-become-the-nominee", "author_id": 101911, "author_username": "tetraspace", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-03-12T07:26:53.530599Z", "published_at": "2020-03-15T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.146495Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-15T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-07-12T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-12T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-08-19T07:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-19T07:41:00Z", "open_time": "2020-03-15T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 143, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3843, "title": "If Biden has the majority of pledged delegates, but does not survive until the nominee is chosen, will Sanders become the nominee?", "created_at": "2020-03-12T07:26:53.530599Z", "open_time": "2020-03-15T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-17T11:09:44.315763Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-17T11:09:44.315763Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-08-19T07:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-19T07:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-08-19T07:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-12T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-07-12T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Joe Biden is 77 years old; [from actuarial tables](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) 77-year-old men have a roughly 4% probability of dying this year, and hence a roughly 1% chance of not surviving until the Democratic National Convention. Additionally, there is some chance that he [contracts coronavirus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3779/will-all-major-2020-us-presidential-candidates-survive-the-covid-19-epidemic/), which has a high mortality rate for people in his age range.\n\nAs of writing this question, [Biden has the most pledged delegates](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-presidential-delegates-tracker/), and appears [likely to win an overall majority](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/), with Sanders in second place.\n\nIf the Democratic candidate does die, then the Democratic party will pick a replacement to nominate - this process would likely be very similar to a contested convention, with delegates and superdelegates not bound by the results of the previous primaries and caucuses. As the second-place candidate, Sanders would be a natural choice for the nomination, but need not necessarily be the nominee.\n\n**If Biden has the majority of pledged delegates, but does not survive until the nominee is chosen, will Sanders become the nominee?**\n\nThe nominee is likely to be chosen at the 2020 Democratic National Convention, but positive resolution does not require the nominee to be chosen at the Convention (in case it's cancelled and another procedure is adopted).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3843, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1594561048.043423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1594561048.043423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.19258622265284617 ], 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"title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-03-12T07:26:38.565286Z", "published_at": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T08:12:08.482697Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, 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"category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3842, "title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?", "created_at": "2020-03-12T07:26:38.565286Z", "open_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-18T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, \"worlds\" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement. \n\nThe other names of the many-worlds interpretation include \"the relative state formulation\", \"the Everett interpretation\", and \"the theory of the universal wavefunction.\"\n\nThis question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists with at least 100 responses reveals that more than half accept the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, as I have described above. The results from the poll must be published in some reliable document or blog post, and must not be informal. If no such poll is released by 1/1/2050, then this question resolves negatively.\n\n[Here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.00676.pdf) is an example of a qualifying survey uploaded to the arxiv in December of 2016. 39% said they preferred the Copenhagen interpretation, 6% the Everett interpretation, 36% had no preferrence.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3842, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761415522.541124, "end_time": 1766319341.596242, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761415522.541124, "end_time": 1766319341.596242, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4236274011153896 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6570695930046578, 0.4801032618269796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4002518783697731, 0.0011005415108165126, 0.0, 0.0, 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T20:07:50.364542Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "topic": [ { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3834, "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", "created_at": "2020-03-11T09:32:11.379558Z", "open_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2050, a scientific consensus is reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus Admins.\n\nFor this question, we exclude any extra-terrestrial life which has been placed outside Earth through intentional or unintentional human activity. Otherwise, it is not necessary for ET life to have a separate origin from Earth life (see the [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia))", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3834, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763901639.389932, "end_time": 1772304495.01891, "forecaster_count": 1649, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763901639.389932, "end_time": 1772304495.01891, "forecaster_count": 1649, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.31117066086692485 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.861912479041561, 0.7319507499732641, 0.13380958759076989, 0.08712207611154155, 0.04142820440961853, 2.959399331853443, 0.002383699601491842, 0.7964964004417385, 0.8739042508480664, 1.8382036009690736, 5.039348145845281, 0.4775882371599933, 3.3693987727542805, 1.5273780115744913, 0.7086788468605378, 4.442368483348592, 0.21168803659763374, 0.6829168090239872, 1.5772266740832337, 1.1164994135463573, 7.486356769452376, 0.004008397109736745, 0.9930502129379447, 1.4106799684325873, 2.107211513822367, 1.1944794701178603, 1.4416393703972692, 0.12828289560456108, 0.6659646758173887, 0.0, 1.0433914945657723, 0.4583199006619747, 1.229538982482281, 1.3520094139470595, 1.4100942605997475, 1.9668220666893639, 0.11237626976421919, 0.026393635202959075, 0.6661008348576178, 0.06899456692000654, 3.4562423277784178, 0.007252359040301044, 0.48750262492586277, 0.013470693006530495, 0.2550684388789688, 1.0457629426147248, 0.13095300509424077, 0.0037216701645841205, 0.015189713185065434, 0.5145615784934165, 3.933129806023245, 0.5785282267506023, 0.03035738107309097, 0.0038136554039951576, 0.004185805950489507, 2.5145190260653356, 1.5735244776703516, 1.551209284164747e-05, 1.0107118227241843e-05, 1.5158984010578904e-07, 1.2699168860633745, 0.002041692928978175, 0.004017624683623596, 0.06136655107872232, 3.9930117260669814e-05, 0.01326513383847593, 1.062063518152516, 0.0003890493305124084, 0.8855395920766694, 6.597937241324746e-06, 0.9903260650834529, 0.0008217728274962428, 5.853273883356429e-05, 1.5616239896237073e-10, 0.0016861055330899038, 1.7472420018008732, 0.016121195253291535, 0.5318387562096342, 0.393523659239444, 0.4083319327561168, 0.02544225497726517, 0.004045649173047314, 0.0007128886029916748, 0.2600957907715397, 3.657476248032575e-06, 0.35581692088445477, 0.42801939245313914, 1.8441356694483582e-06, 0.0010838206021153876, 0.00113468985292518, 0.07588844715405284, 0.0031796283094834336, 0.0027937505572949673, 0.0001466614271475023, 0.0025285818651867072, 0.0007803869443843793, 0.0, 0.3012665017699764, 1.0748878291118213, 0.9771367801726065 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288856.917025, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 336, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288856.917025, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 336, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.912413925753918, 0.08758607424608203 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 53, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2394, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. 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Easter term runs from the 27th April till the 18th of June. Resolution is by credible news report, or by inquiries submitted to the University.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3825, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1584534280.548228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1584534280.548228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.08999999999999997, 0.91 ], "means": [ 0.8852053268852709 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", "created_at": "2020-03-10T02:49:08.221349Z", "open_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-16T09:10:38.662793Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-16T09:10:38.662793Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T05:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T05:10:07.685970Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\n\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\n\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10, 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \n\n***Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time between March 1, 2020 to January 1, 2025, according to credible press reports, or a major cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform.\n\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3821, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654428.541459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 624, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654428.541459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 624, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], 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"url_title": "BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025?", "slug": "btc-worth-over-100k-usd-by-2025", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-03-10T02:44:56.581623Z", "published_at": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T13:58:17.289944Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 331, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1145, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, 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"slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3820, "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", "created_at": "2020-03-10T02:44:56.581623Z", "open_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-14T12:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-14T12:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T02:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T12:45:30.911567Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\n\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\n\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10, 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \n\n***Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?***", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before January 1, 2025, according to credible press reports or a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform. The valuation will be in nominal USD, not adjusted for inflation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3820, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733401177.505398, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.846 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733401177.505398, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.846 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.8706031488576607 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.03168396742634666, 0.25780821051895075, 0.08475300642635775, 0.09271549513156224, 0.4203465245924317, 0.589766469125785, 0.009522691301922761, 0.05478553064551548, 0.031278594451896465, 0.1272417659041971, 0.17427541482874975, 0.06504645699434487, 0.13494174523355904, 0.10937631110743017, 0.05305871046050714, 0.12535007569560044, 0.013151090342316533, 0.05777015805671247, 0.022331509540814583, 0.09763300734261307, 0.19141309650265811, 0.020704798763442868, 0.014559540437531182, 0.011570759593403012, 1.360122990215224e-11, 0.15852042544722234, 3.9135813366269475e-05, 1.582299691853845e-07, 0.0035171772308180585, 0.0, 0.10484935202293852, 0.009705148187975493, 0.06227350539590257, 0.041519873436425506, 0.00255926453487317, 0.5144060385583545, 0.06206700430725155, 1.271951161741608e-05, 0.00035786965470130074, 0.14228246118599758, 0.5977789684317748, 0.013259758375582591, 2.6115805711841727e-05, 6.959793289902788e-06, 0.23605577584961998, 0.07009629506571047, 0.05400310548080969, 0.0371026936162957, 0.08108888070641329, 0.00887999613096119, 0.7608788641318762, 0.014415618967355076, 0.00011176211671280222, 5.957770434812664e-07, 0.0625317267035941, 0.1368560070640859, 0.02458170394116928, 0.05601216538963844, 0.0, 0.015219621524193662, 0.8830808510940678, 0.041479766782462416, 0.4598071048301912, 0.0024469860120128043, 0.00032667829688967317, 0.3687435666516813, 0.0026078202964682274, 0.07837160304707162, 0.026792935050802675, 0.009435270974482107, 2.278413335453784, 0.30913042421675946, 2.1148009684490973e-05, 0.1592945053981394, 5.639463999336443e-06, 1.290879677252081, 6.784579182124251e-06, 4.503157299983735e-06, 0.027473774028054097, 0.4450766709568418, 2.2601715025219726, 4.5983147810856384e-11, 1.0611476531613961, 0.3719704908128753, 0.5831212894615119, 4.124727512243995, 0.39753881728720225, 1.0766761894741603, 0.49145859126876884, 0.5951899991770118, 1.6668846154833574, 0.5034119513232616, 0.01985374419049434, 0.12201564230580789, 0.3413202620692296, 1.7261861179155136, 0.8538190706428497, 0.4740980791303103, 0.6889002272410859, 36.40248186041509 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -92.09042639547678, "peer_score": -3.298501657091086, "coverage": 0.9846810207563161, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999943241532506, "spot_peer_score": -10.636488137076837, "baseline_archived_score": -92.09042639547678, "peer_archived_score": -3.298501657091086, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.636488137076837 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288946.753436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1080, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288946.753436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1080, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9607333635564507, 0.039266636443549344 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 112, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4564, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\n\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\n\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10, 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \n\n***Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?***" } ] }
