Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5440
{ "count": 6411, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5460", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5420", "results": [ { "id": 3812, "title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?", "short_title": "Valve Game Release by 2030?", "url_title": "Valve Game Release by 2030?", "slug": "valve-game-release-by-2030", "author_id": 110301, "author_username": "FelixK", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-03-08T13:39:25.121007Z", "published_at": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T17:22:11.092420Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T10:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 158, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 3812, "title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?", "created_at": "2020-03-08T13:39:25.121007Z", "open_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-16T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-16T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T10:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T10:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\n\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\",\n\"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has \"3\" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3812, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763722383.565984, "end_time": 1764646079.750453, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.4678858796774614 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763722383.565984, "end_time": 1764646079.750453, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.4678858796774614 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5321141203225386, 0.4678858796774614 ], "means": [ 0.48182782824145143 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42979895733447326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.313263863684616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5015111138703353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09403858736474303, 0.0, 0.7123421632738909, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1268207357385656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19083852728587639, 0.22580387150178, 0.0, 0.13311385167927348, 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1728289081.167233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289081.167233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.786222873572427, 0.21377712642757296 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 418, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\n\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\",\n\"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\"." }, { "id": 3795, "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-03-07T02:41:47.145913Z", "published_at": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.567832Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3795, "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", "created_at": "2020-03-07T02:41:47.145913Z", "open_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\n\n> longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\n\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\n\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\n\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\n\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3795, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749176647.744285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749176647.744285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5700000000000001, 0.43 ], "means": [ 0.4588258652130022 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1499591252076335, 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0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287923.860994, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287923.860994, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7674181570980543, 0.23258184290194575 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 229, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3794, "title": "Will Tesla offer a self-driving capability on both highways and side streets by the end of 2020, with driver supervision required?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tesla-offer-a-self-driving-capability-on-both-highways-and-side-streets-by-the-end-of-2020-with-driver-supervision-required", "author_id": 109456, "author_username": "alphagrue", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-03-06T23:07:20.291034Z", "published_at": "2020-03-16T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.646377Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-16T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-06-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-16T16:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-16T16:11:00Z", "open_time": "2020-03-16T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3794, "title": "Will Tesla offer a self-driving capability on both highways and side streets by the end of 2020, with driver supervision required?", "created_at": "2020-03-06T23:07:20.291034Z", "open_time": "2020-03-16T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-17T11:09:39.633492Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-17T11:09:39.633492Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-16T16:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-16T16:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-16T16:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-06-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Note that Metaculus already has a separate [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2631/will-tesla-roll-out-the-fully-autonomous-autopilot-feature-before-2021/) about whether Tesla will achieve full level-4/5 self-driving **without** supervision, but this question is specifically about achieving a reasonably feature-complete version of their supervision-based self-driving approach.\n\nAccording to the [Tesla website](https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot), they will support the remaining full self-driving options by the end of 2020, including support for stop lights and automatic driving on city streets. Tesla already offers self-driving on highways with driver supervision. \n\nThe current Metaculus estimate about unsupervised self-driving predicts a relatively low probability of success in 2020 (13%), but it would still be a major milestone if a supervised version were made available in this time-frame, hence this question. \n\n**By the end of 2020 will Tesla release a system capable of full self-driving across both highways and side streets, at least with driver supervision required?**\n\nThis question will resolve positive if Tesla rolls out a system meeting the two remaining self-driving bullets listed on its website (linked above) by the end of 2020 as promised, allowing self-driving to extend to side-streets (in addition to highways). The feature descriptions from the Tesla site are\n\n1. Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs,\n2. Automatic driving on city streets.\n\nThe release should at least be at the US county level (or at a level that moderators decide is equivalent to that of a US county). It does not need to handle all road/weather conditions and intervention may be required in some circumstances. If no supervision is required, then this question will also resolve positive.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3794, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1590968394.338705, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1590968394.338705, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3313141124112574 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.062145128489293634, 0.0, 0.0023430504572772284, 0.0, 0.01819991659306542, 0.0, 0.00745418629536983, 0.0013126840943606384, 0.024350657181741946, 0.20363575188725996, 0.0, 0.06729360556232464, 0.02061205483794986, 0.0223611766315577, 0.016548847674293782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09880133150134848, 2.149893728415306, 0.0, 0.23179558703697486, 0.9501222425247978, 0.846160625528906, 1.6102816590323252, 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"range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a new [president](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States). These [elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election) are traditionally held on the first Tuesday after November 1st. Typically, somewhere roughly between 50% and 60% of the voting population [turns out](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections) to cast a ballot.\n\nAn [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled to be held on the 3rd of November. However, the [COVID-19 outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) has reached the United States. This could potentially cause havoc, making many people sick or fearful to come to public polling places, and potentially incapacitating the personnel necessary to run elections. 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"options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Dominic Cummings's appointment as Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, has been the subject of significant media scrutiny, and many of the controversies surrounding Johnson's premiership so far have been strongly linked to Cummings in the media. Two recent examples are:\n\n- The appointment and subsequent resignation of [Andrew Sabisky](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51538493)\n\n- The resignation of [Chancellor Sajid Javid](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51491662)\n\nResolution:\n\n- If Cummings is still Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson when voting closes for the next UK general election, question resolves positive.\n\n- If Boris Johnson steps down or is otherwise removed from the office of Prime Minister before the next UK general election, and Cummings is still acting as Chief Adviser at the point when this happens, question resolves positive.\n\n- Otherwise, if Cummings leaves his position as Chief Adviser while Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and before the next UK general election, question resolves negative.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1605296633.639425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 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"score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 3782, "title": "Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?", "created_at": "2020-03-04T23:41:21.440651Z", "open_time": "2020-03-06T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-06T02:47:58.133631Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-06T02:47:58.133631Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-16T11:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-16T11:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-16T11:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-03-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-15T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China.\n\nA number of nation-states, including Japan and Italy, have closed their schools in an attempt to curb COVID-19 infections. \n\nThis question asks if New York City, the largest city in the United States, will close its public schools due to COVID-19 in the year 2020. New York State has has eleven confirmed infections as of March 4, 2020. The town of Hastings-on-Hudson, 20km north of New York City, has announced it will close its public schools for two days as a precaution against COVID-19.", "resolution_criteria": "**Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?**\n\nQuestion resolves positively if >50% of NYC public schools (including primary, middle, and high-school level) are closed for at least one full day due to COVID-19 before January 1, 2021. Specifically, this resolves positively if\n\n- at least 50% of NYC public schools are closed simultaneously for at least one day;\n- at least 60% of schools NYC public schools are closed for at least one day for any non-overlapping time-window in a 7-day period;\n\nand negatively otherwise.\n\nClosures of NYC public schools for other reasons are not sufficient to resolve yes. Resolution is by credible news reports or by reports by the New York State government agencies. % of schools is taken here by number of schools, not by number of students.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3782, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1584247812.994251, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1584247812.994251, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9190128512245702 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022199921284173233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030808665700961273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004112937101196632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003570436067611886, 0.044160497040506785, 0.0008736285195943462, 0.0, 0.025841138057193055, 0.0, 0.2508487885196143, 0.2856857964479494, 0.0, 1.0059514886168155, 0.0, 0.5727944158119007, 0.8379623644471119, 0.0, 0.1238737269256792, 0.18151907467726272, 0.9644313980581122, 0.0, 0.000978374246502311, 0.0, 0.5318335913840225, 4.902989658496818, 0.03128863589536731, 0.14430896306494445, 0.2654026560123709, 0.36419599032900263, 2.5670842993078917, 0.535934127747749, 1.9476012415203594, 1.3024326088933988, 4.415887869550567 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.485538240084266, "coverage": 0.9947157108735774, "baseline_score": 74.35376272800144, "spot_peer_score": -11.461667643063233, "peer_archived_score": 3.485538240084266, "baseline_archived_score": 74.35376272800144, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.461667643063233 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1584228810.781821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1584228810.781821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17302967187124985, 0.8269703281287502 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 360, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China.\n\nA number of nation-states, including Japan and Italy, have closed their schools in an attempt to curb COVID-19 infections. \n\nThis question asks if New York City, the largest city in the United States, will close its public schools due to COVID-19 in the year 2020. New York State has has eleven confirmed infections as of March 4, 2020. The town of Hastings-on-Hudson, 20km north of New York City, has announced it will close its public schools for two days as a precaution against COVID-19." }, { "id": 3779, "title": "Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-all-major-2020-us-presidential-candidates-survive-the-covid-19-epidemic", "author_id": 105951, "author_username": "Sylvain", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-03-03T13:14:34.439606Z", "published_at": "2020-03-07T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.188995Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-07T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 106, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-09-01T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-01T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-08T19:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-08T19:42:00Z", "open_time": "2020-03-07T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 294, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3779, "title": "Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?", "created_at": "2020-03-03T13:14:34.439606Z", "open_time": "2020-03-07T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-07T16:15:28.110139Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-07T16:15:28.110139Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-08T19:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-08T19:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-08T19:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-01T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-09-01T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Coronaviruses are a family of RNA viruses that typically cause mild respiratory disease in humans. A novel coronavirus ([COVID-19](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus)) was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019.\n\nEarly estimation of the fatality rate put it around 2% ([wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Prognosis)) but this hides very high age-heterogeneity, the Chinese CDC [estimating](http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51) it at ~0.2% for people under 40, and ~15% for people 80+ years old.\n\nIt has been remarked that the candidates for the 2020 US Presidential election are rather old. On the Democratic side, most of the remaining major candidates as of this question's writing [are over 70](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Declared_major_candidates_2) (Tulsi Gabbard is 38, but very unlikely to win). On the other side, Donald Trump [is 74](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Declared_major_candidates).\n\nQuestion: **Will all major candidates for the US Presidential election survive the COVID-19 epidemic?**\n\nResolution:\n\n + This resolves negative if any of {Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders} are reported by reputable media sources to have died as a result of COVID-19 in 2020, positive otherwise.\n\n + This resolves negative retroactively one week before the qualifying event, or positive on 2021-01-05.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3779, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1598995655.829338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 294, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1598995655.829338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 294, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3778, "title": "Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?", "created_at": "2020-03-03T05:43:01.990781Z", "open_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-08-18T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-08-18T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2067-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2067-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism),\n\n> a type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend.\n\n> Market socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism are complete and self-regulating systems, unlike the mixed economy. Market socialism also contrasts with social democratic policies implemented within capitalist market economies. While social democracy aims to achieve greater economic stability and equality through policy measures such as taxes, subsidies and social welfare programs, market socialism aims to achieve similar goals through changing patterns of enterprise ownership and management.\n\nA nation is said to be a democracy if they score at least 7.0 on the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). An economy is said to have transitioned from capitalism to market socialism if at least five reliable media sources describe the economy as primarily driven by market socialism, by the definition given above (or something very close, determined by Metaculus moderators), and describe the previous economy as primarily capitalist.\n\nAn economy is said to sustain *adequate growth* if in the 15 years following the date of transition (which is determined by the implementation date of the most significant legislation/constitution that is widely recognized as marking the transition, as determined by a Metaculus moderator) the nation maintains at least 85% of the mean real GDP growth, relative to the previous 15 years, excluding the year of implementation. In the event of multiple transitions, only the first such country to transition should be taken into consideration.\n\nThis question asks, **Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?**\n\nIf such a nation sustains adequate growth, this question resolves postively. If such a nation sustains below adequate growth, this question resolves negatively. If no democratic nation transitions their economy to market socialism before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, this question resolves ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3778, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759487230.406593, "end_time": 1766739045.221969, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759487230.406593, "end_time": 1766739045.221969, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4982785457930956 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.273166134231492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\n\n> Wild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n\n1. At least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n\n2. Legislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n\n3. There are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n\n4. A protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n\n6. A major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n\n5. 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194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate.\n\nFor centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html)\n\n> The day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... \"\n\nPeter Singer [wrote](https://www.uvm.edu/rsenr/wfb175/singer.pdf) in 1974,\n\n> Our custom is all the support that the meat industry needs. The decision to cease giving it that support may be difficult, but it is no more difficult than it would have been for a white Southerner to go against the traditions of his society and free his slaves: if we do not change our dietary habits, how can we censure those slaveholders who would not change their own way of living?\n\nMany contemporary thinkers have anticipated a massive ethical shift against the current treatment of animal as property, once tasty artificial meat is developed. If future humans become regretful of our current treatment of animals, will there be an official apology from a government?\n\nThis question resolves positively if a sovereign government (at the level of national, or an international government if one exists at the time) issues a formal apology for the poor treatment of farm animals in the past, specifically in reference to the fact that they were treated as property before January 1st 2200. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\n\nFor clarification, a sovereign government is defined as one that has \"the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory, sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme authority over some polity.\" The United Nations does *not* count as a sovereign government.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3772, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761496326.548032, "end_time": 1765364563.502124, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761496326.548032, "end_time": 1765364563.502124, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.8376683091690615 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008798480225827365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007480512792552108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3078746553763919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002751926865799895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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null, "description": "Current machine learning techniques are data-hungry and brittle—they can only make sense of patterns they've seen before. Using current methods, an algorithm can gain new skills by exposure to large amounts of data, but cognitive abilities that could broadly generalize to many tasks remain elusive. This makes it very challenging to create systems that can handle the variability and unpredictability of the real world, such as domestic robots or self-driving cars.\n\nFrançois Chollet, creator of the Keras neural network library, in the paper \"[On measuring intelligence](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.01547)\" describes in detail the context and motivation behind a benchmark that is supposed to put the general, broad intelligence of machines to test.\n\n[The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC)](https://github.com/fchollet/ARC) provides a benchmark to measure AI skill-acquisition on unknown tasks, with the constraint that only a handful of demonstrations are shown to learn a complex task. The setup is similar to the Raven's Progressive Matrices IQ test. You can inspect training examples [here](https://www.kaggle.com/lopuhin/check-all-train-and-test-examples).\n\nRecently François Chollet started a [Kaggle competition](https://www.kaggle.com/c/abstraction-and-reasoning-challenge/overview/description) based on ARC with sum of prizes amounting to 20 000$.", "resolution_criteria": "This question asks whether the 1st place winner will pass 0.8 or less top-3 error rate as [defined in the Kaggle competition evaluation](https://www.kaggle.com/c/abstraction-and-reasoning-challenge/overview/evaluation)? The question will resolve positive if the threshold is passed, negative otherwise. To achieve this threshold, an AI will need to answer correctly after 3 tries in only 20% of tasks. This threshold will also unlock an additional $3,000 for the top competitors.\n\nThis question will close on May 18th 2020, the entry deadline for the competition, and resolve as soon as the final result are known.\n\nETA: Closing date changed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3762, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1589447704.241062, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1589447704.241062, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9547528754196062 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0044742850080316185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035489586503395306, 0.0, 0.00012340980408667956, 0.0, 0.0031594436946416338, 0.003974469316782441, 0.0, 0.004319409319680867, 0.0021830841510801758, 0.004438564325035619, 0.0006398679769312256, 0.00042478303617855785, 0.0012515466035336708, 0.0, 0.0011179153838096778, 0.0, 0.0014504254020369168, 0.005493616612509603, 0.0, 0.006090527921295049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025338135663538038, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007439285375673236, 0.0019144160966186434, 0.0, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015466976053567325, 0.0, 0.1083194260854749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06588199375352612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14402876366182918, 0.0, 0.09350234800008052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6315874076611033, 0.03515695335705871, 0.0, 0.061674951317251536, 0.6450868353531612, 0.5893700415866793, 0.012995582973728041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.750825204439411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9841012664020519, 0.15320757229807203, 1.0217121723725289, 0.2544407561291644, 12.851832896343517 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.068631547285131, "coverage": 0.9169752058967204, "baseline_score": -96.19258632349052, "spot_peer_score": 11.632454883907341, "peer_archived_score": 3.068631547285131, "baseline_archived_score": -96.19258632349052, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.632454883907341 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1589221687.300135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1589221687.300135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.15180403690393784, 0.8481959630960622 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 263, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Current machine learning techniques are data-hungry and brittle—they can only make sense of patterns they've seen before. Using current methods, an algorithm can gain new skills by exposure to large amounts of data, but cognitive abilities that could broadly generalize to many tasks remain elusive. This makes it very challenging to create systems that can handle the variability and unpredictability of the real world, such as domestic robots or self-driving cars.\n\nFrançois Chollet, creator of the Keras neural network library, in the paper \"[On measuring intelligence](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.01547)\" describes in detail the context and motivation behind a benchmark that is supposed to put the general, broad intelligence of machines to test.\n\n[The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC)](https://github.com/fchollet/ARC) provides a benchmark to measure AI skill-acquisition on unknown tasks, with the constraint that only a handful of demonstrations are shown to learn a complex task. The setup is similar to the Raven's Progressive Matrices IQ test. You can inspect training examples [here](https://www.kaggle.com/lopuhin/check-all-train-and-test-examples).\n\nRecently François Chollet started a [Kaggle competition](https://www.kaggle.com/c/abstraction-and-reasoning-challenge/overview/description) based on ARC with sum of prizes amounting to 20 000$." }, { "id": 3756, "title": "Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?", "short_title": "EA global SF 2020 cancelled?", "url_title": "EA global SF 2020 cancelled?", "slug": "ea-global-sf-2020-cancelled", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-28T21:40:31.324066Z", "published_at": "2020-02-28T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.108044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-28T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-03-05T00:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-03-05T00:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-05T00:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-05T00:30:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-28T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3756, "title": "Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?", "created_at": "2020-02-28T21:40:31.324066Z", "open_time": "2020-02-28T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-29T03:23:54.781460Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-29T03:23:54.781460Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-05T00:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-05T00:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-05T00:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-03-05T00:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-05T00:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global San Francisco 2020](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/sf2020/) is scheduled to be held in San Francisco, USA from to 20th 22nd of March 2020.", "resolution_criteria": "**Will EA Global: San Francisco 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?**\n\nThe question resolves negative if the EA Global San Francisco 2020 takes place on the originally scheduled location at the scheduled dates. 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The contest will take place in Rotterdam, Netherlands. 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The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.\n\nAs of February 11th, 2020 the CDC issues level 3 travel health notices [for China and Venezuela](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the CDC issues a Warning Level 3 Travel Health notice for France (or any part thereof) before 00:00 GMT on May 1st, due to the 2019 novel coronavirus. Determination of the answer will be made by consulting [the relevant CDC noticeboard](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices). Positive resolution requires the CDC mentioning the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in their reasons for issuing the Level 3 Travel Health Notice. \n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France before 5PM GMT on the 29th of February.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1584002653.657236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1584002653.657236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9419750295665938 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.005344667174111027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004317504220680495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012543399915659996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025194092214829794, 0.01698211627615795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027496607940180044, 0.0, 0.00926838856481337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2904098190387606, 0.1441958114546953, 0.012720747494406942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06294587453662596, 0.0, 0.03211265593215371, 0.12082870651021416, 0.0, 0.16544280493659136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2303292186170578, 0.06190426115630072, 0.0, 0.09166238998882277, 0.31337461538095807, 0.0, 0.11620650952773942, 0.03607169459898251, 0.0, 1.1555326668376031, 0.10066260077593363, 0.05025074089134997, 0.1572066883677779, 0.0, 0.4240027847469322, 0.5801926892903704, 0.1711754945605547, 0.0, 0.5829130073283081, 0.543308524129585, 8.334982850446602 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.820269340183415, "coverage": 0.974232116640285, "baseline_score": 50.72579632971094, "spot_peer_score": 13.12342276728592, "peer_archived_score": 18.820269340183415, "baseline_archived_score": 50.72579632971094, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.12342276728592 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1583972101.717753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1583972101.717753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4344716906257142, 0.5655283093742858 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 148, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The CDC's [level 3 Travel Health Notice](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices#travel-notice-definitions) advises against non-essential travel:\n\n> Warning Level 3 (Red): Avoid all non-essential travel to this destination. The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.\n\nAs of February 11th, 2020 the CDC issues level 3 travel health notices [for China and Venezuela](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices)." }, { "id": 3750, "title": "Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?", "short_title": "airbnb suspended by june 2020", "url_title": "airbnb suspended by june 2020", "slug": "airbnb-suspended-by-june-2020", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-27T23:17:28.729755Z", "published_at": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.620755Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-03-23T03:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-24T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-23T03:16:00Z", "open_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 3750, "title": "Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?", "created_at": "2020-02-27T23:17:28.729755Z", "open_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-03T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-24T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-23T03:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-23T03:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-24T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-23T03:16:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Airbnb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbnb), is an online marketplace for arranging or offering lodging, primarily homestays, or tourism experiences. There are [over 6 million](https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/airbnb-statistics) Airbnb listings in 191 countries worldwide. The home sharing platform [reportedly](https://thespaces.com/airbnb-now-bigger-worlds-top-five-hotel-brands-put-together/) has more listings than the largest hotel chains. \n\n[Earlier this month](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-10/airbnb-freezes-beijing-check-ins-till-march-to-curb-coronavirus), Airbnb paused suspended bookings in Beijing with check-in dates from Feb. 7 to April 30, following government guidance to companies in the short-term rental industry. Bookings have also been suspended elsewhere in China: for Wuxi until Feb. 20; Yongchuan District (in Chongqing) until Feb. 29; and Wuhan until March 31.\n\nIn Malaysia, the Malaysian Association of Hotels [has urged Airbnb](https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2020/02/15/halt-airbnb-business-to-fight-covid-19-putrajaya-told/) to suspend operations immediately to help the government contain the spread of COVID-19. This followed after a person who occupied an Airbnb residential property in Kuala Lumpur reportedly being hospitalised as a COVID-19 victim.", "resolution_criteria": "**Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country with at least 10M citizens due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if Airbnb reports that it is suspending bookings for at least a week in an entire country or administrative region, with at least 10M citizens, before 11 AM GMT, June 27th. Positive resolution requires at least 50% of bookings are subject to suspension.\n\nThe relevant reporting must cite COVID-19-related concerns as the primary reason for its suspension. This suspension may be voluntary (in case of precautionary measures) or be required by a government.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3750, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1585414104.702091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1585414104.702091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6693441435827914 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10228230303850093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006813082111662306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3145994592202703, 0.0, 0.18037658447122673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24582773872283623, 0.0391307538660947, 0.0, 0.052917423781649, 0.0, 0.48661020242176667, 1.2195760022296023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09883264550336468, 0.3280295735986305, 0.20042950017961592, 0.6682290751014637, 1.2940073439664044, 0.06984569336479438, 0.06726277240240616, 0.12948046043583153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5587017186565926, 0.0, 0.02802391257647418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16193689729934868, 0.0, 0.7258864312822346, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2222072549284633, 0.0, 0.4741317757842507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060957830206119154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14500482192877664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4337183691184219 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.2578422447552993, "coverage": 0.19085577680430937, "baseline_score": 3.9806016364811616, "spot_peer_score": 48.10315225574312, "peer_archived_score": 3.2578422447552993, "baseline_archived_score": 3.9806016364811616, "spot_peer_archived_score": 48.10315225574312 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1584883634.937064, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1584883634.937064, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.512254253427147, 0.4877457465728529 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Airbnb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbnb), is an online marketplace for arranging or offering lodging, primarily homestays, or tourism experiences. There are [over 6 million](https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/airbnb-statistics) Airbnb listings in 191 countries worldwide. The home sharing platform [reportedly](https://thespaces.com/airbnb-now-bigger-worlds-top-five-hotel-brands-put-together/) has more listings than the largest hotel chains. \n\n[Earlier this month](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-10/airbnb-freezes-beijing-check-ins-till-march-to-curb-coronavirus), Airbnb paused suspended bookings in Beijing with check-in dates from Feb. 7 to April 30, following government guidance to companies in the short-term rental industry. Bookings have also been suspended elsewhere in China: for Wuxi until Feb. 20; Yongchuan District (in Chongqing) until Feb. 29; and Wuhan until March 31.\n\nIn Malaysia, the Malaysian Association of Hotels [has urged Airbnb](https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2020/02/15/halt-airbnb-business-to-fight-covid-19-putrajaya-told/) to suspend operations immediately to help the government contain the spread of COVID-19. This followed after a person who occupied an Airbnb residential property in Kuala Lumpur reportedly being hospitalised as a COVID-19 victim." }, { "id": 3749, "title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?", "short_title": "Pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance key by 2030?", "url_title": "Pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance key by 2030?", "slug": "pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-key-by-2030", "author_id": 101229, "author_username": "ignorance.prior", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-27T19:50:19.815137Z", "published_at": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.411635Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3749, "title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?", "created_at": "2020-02-27T19:50:19.815137Z", "open_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-03T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-03T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\n\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\n\n> We openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\n\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.", "resolution_criteria": "If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\n\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n\n* Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256\n* Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes\n* Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256\n* Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256\n* Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256\n* Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256\n* Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256\n* Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256\n* Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256\n* Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256\n* Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3749, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740023701.925295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.319 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740023701.925295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.319 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.681, 0.319 ], "means": [ 0.2979219182186859 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6019627254324547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.848390712889754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4877134852468046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0773927070098371, 0.05797234383343228, 0.6571444928584438, 0.0, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5788227537223614, 0.0, 0.5089816543811445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.687758336216852, 1.0, 0.9215931031121718, 1.3462914291875685, 0.37974261668515136, 1.0285445466982663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.09439324389104504, 0.32634534839178764, 0.1011216878911307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019676189570906492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1148171974242466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4420908814196381, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290028.942655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290028.942655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8417268873801549, 0.15827311261984506 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 144, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\n\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\n\n> We openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\n\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks." }, { "id": 3748, "title": "Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?", "short_title": "airbnb suspended outside china june 2020", "url_title": "airbnb suspended outside china june 2020", 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"slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 3748, "title": "Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?", "created_at": "2020-02-27T19:47:14.446606Z", "open_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-03T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-24T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-31T01:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-31T01:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-24T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-31T01:21:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Airbnb, is an online marketplace for arranging or offering lodging, primarily homestays, or tourism experiences. There are [over 6 million](https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/airbnb-statistics) Airbnb listings in 191 countries worldwide. The home sharing platform [reportedly](https://thespaces.com/airbnb-now-bigger-worlds-top-five-hotel-brands-put-together/) has more listings than the largest hotel chains. \n\n[Earlier this month](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-10/airbnb-freezes-beijing-check-ins-till-march-to-curb-coronavirus), Airbnb paused suspended bookings in Beijing with check-in dates from Feb. 7 to April 30, following government guidance to companies in the short-term rental industry. Bookings have also been suspended elsewhere in China: for Wuxi until Feb. 20; Yongchuan District (in Chongqing) until Feb. 29; and Wuhan until March 31.", "resolution_criteria": "**Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas in any country other than Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if Airbnb reports that it is suspending bookings for at least a week in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China before 11 AM GMT, June 27th. Positive resolution requires that in each metropolitan area, at least 25% of bookings are subject to suspension.\n\nA major metropolitan area here is defined as any city with a population greater than 2M. The relevant reporting must cite COVID-19-related concerns as the primary reason for its suspension. This suspension may be voluntary (in case of precautionary measures) or be required by a government.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3748, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1585786565.913221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1585786565.913221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.911852654565164 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001873194738889857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03822815059915958, 0.017693904732105976, 0.0, 0.12123984901333745, 0.0, 0.016279767023399463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2780067488129698, 0.0, 0.03550589469936926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8705052744070133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6399110560497983, 0.0, 0.12443678207034711, 0.10227296739520486, 0.0, 0.6219545903739366, 0.0, 0.18796133009332977, 0.40314273980359944, 0.04255302797849524, 1.2635689479377028, 0.0, 0.7033457699064573, 0.49711262948108553, 0.32768716652500174, 2.836116285072631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.9306761034633633 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.7264156377005935, "coverage": 0.25915854982562647, "baseline_score": 10.080067348617927, "spot_peer_score": -9.85234311179486, "peer_archived_score": 2.7264156377005935, "baseline_archived_score": 10.080067348617927, "spot_peer_archived_score": -9.85234311179486 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1585611292.398376, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1585611292.398376, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.29982059011111495, 0.700179409888885 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 121, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Airbnb, is an online marketplace for arranging or offering lodging, primarily homestays, or tourism experiences. There are [over 6 million](https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/airbnb-statistics) Airbnb listings in 191 countries worldwide. The home sharing platform [reportedly](https://thespaces.com/airbnb-now-bigger-worlds-top-five-hotel-brands-put-together/) has more listings than the largest hotel chains. \n\n[Earlier this month](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-10/airbnb-freezes-beijing-check-ins-till-march-to-curb-coronavirus), Airbnb paused suspended bookings in Beijing with check-in dates from Feb. 7 to April 30, following government guidance to companies in the short-term rental industry. Bookings have also been suspended elsewhere in China: for Wuxi until Feb. 20; Yongchuan District (in Chongqing) until Feb. 29; and Wuhan until March 31." }, { "id": 3745, "title": "Will the FDA authorise the use of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 by the end of 2020?", "short_title": "FDA authorizes remdesivir?", "url_title": "FDA authorizes remdesivir?", "slug": "fda-authorizes-remdesivir", "author_id": 101229, "author_username": "ignorance.prior", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-27T16:10:20.012415Z", "published_at": "2020-03-03T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.193617Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-03T01:00:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-03-22T15:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-22T15:58:00Z", "open_time": "2020-03-03T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3745, "title": "Will the FDA authorise the use of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 by the end of 2020?", "created_at": "2020-02-27T16:10:20.012415Z", "open_time": "2020-03-03T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-04T15:15:09.232081Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-04T15:15:09.232081Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-22T15:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-22T15:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-22T15:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Remdesivir is an investigational nucleotide analog with broad-spectrum antiviral activity. It is not approved anywhere globally for any use. \n\nAccording to its producer, [Gilead Sciences](https://www.gilead.com/purpose/advancing-global-health/covid-19):\n\n> Remdesivir has demonstrated in vitro and in vivo activity in animal models against the viral pathogens MERS and SARS, which are also coronaviruses and are structurally similar to COVID-19. The limited preclinical data on remdesivir in MERS and SARS indicate that remdesivir may have potential activity against COVID-19.\n\n\nFrom the [National Institutes of Health](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins):\n\n> A randomized, controlled clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized adults diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has begun at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) in Omaha. The trial regulatory sponsor is the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health. This is the first clinical trial in the United States to evaluate an experimental treatment for COVID-19, the respiratory disease first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.\n\n> “We urgently need a safe and effective treatment for COVID-19. Although remdesivir has been administered to some patients with COVID-19, we do not have solid data to indicate it can improve clinical outcomes,” said NIAID Director and U.S. Coronavirus Task Force member Anthony S. Fauci, M.D. “A randomized, placebo-controlled trial is the gold standard for determining if an experimental treatment can benefit patients.”", "resolution_criteria": "**Will the FDA authorise the use of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 by the end of 2020?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of 2020, the FDA reports that remdesivir has been officially authorised for use in humans as a medical countermeasure to COVID-19. This must permit remdesivir to be administered to some members of the public in at least some circumstances that are not clinical trials. Usage under [Emergency Use Authorization](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) is sufficient for positive resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3745, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1584890820.095109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1584890820.095109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.62226505938503 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.016946764592253687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010703886146113043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015174815764353458, 0.48529413660216764, 0.045388810230191125, 0.0016218528311726184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012062988077826794, 0.0, 0.006379262637396644, 0.0, 0.05905405057562772, 0.023254082934554995, 0.1294215166938987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.665820381437733, 0.004940416669495063, 0.7883069493702228, 0.4580730973730062, 0.0, 1.3940467156345129, 0.4113216020243432, 0.057027089769485596, 0.0, 1.7354898529768, 0.6807522989101445, 1.565663625972812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20409162864023808, 0.8956215049903861, 0.05897460959941682, 0.0, 0.1255824114252426, 0.0, 1.03788866221477, 0.0012808209520579696, 0.0, 0.8394799688108832, 0.2347694085184629, 0.45555165592256447, 0.0, 0.037813494953784915, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3204912211551088, 0.8902523718939138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0344326025214608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1225606147513546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1584808990.826876, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1584808990.826876, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5681103391612612, 0.4318896608387388 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 176, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Remdesivir is an investigational nucleotide analog with broad-spectrum antiviral activity. It is not approved anywhere globally for any use. \n\nAccording to its producer, [Gilead Sciences](https://www.gilead.com/purpose/advancing-global-health/covid-19):\n\n> Remdesivir has demonstrated in vitro and in vivo activity in animal models against the viral pathogens MERS and SARS, which are also coronaviruses and are structurally similar to COVID-19. The limited preclinical data on remdesivir in MERS and SARS indicate that remdesivir may have potential activity against COVID-19.\n\n\nFrom the [National Institutes of Health](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins):\n\n> A randomized, controlled clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized adults diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has begun at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) in Omaha. The trial regulatory sponsor is the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health. This is the first clinical trial in the United States to evaluate an experimental treatment for COVID-19, the respiratory disease first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.\n\n> “We urgently need a safe and effective treatment for COVID-19. Although remdesivir has been administered to some patients with COVID-19, we do not have solid data to indicate it can improve clinical outcomes,” said NIAID Director and U.S. Coronavirus Task Force member Anthony S. 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patient with pneumonia during [the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)) It causes the infectious disease [COVID-19](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019).\n\nSo far, China has already implemented [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hubei_lockdowns) of Wuhan and surrounding towns, covering an unprecedented number of people (>50 million). 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