Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5460
{ "count": 6411, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5480", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5440", "results": [ { "id": 3742, "title": "Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period?", "short_title": "CO₂ below 433.19 ppm over 2024 to 2027?", "url_title": "CO₂ below 433.19 ppm over 2024 to 2027?", "slug": "co2-below-43319-ppm-over-2024-to-2027", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-26T20:43:28.148361Z", "published_at": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T01:16:54.809490Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3742, "title": "Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period?", "created_at": "2020-02-26T20:43:28.148361Z", "open_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-02T20:43:28.148000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-02T20:43:28.148000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\n\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \n\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\n\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y) Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\n\n**Data**\n\n- [Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n\n- [Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3742, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763836239.243443, "end_time": 1764628484.700962, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.336 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763836239.243443, "end_time": 1764628484.700962, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.336 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6639999999999999, 0.336 ], "means": [ 0.34685572876453186 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.8950225264917947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.772330576101931, 0.2874765089890791, 1.0441590852166582, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287466.933361, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287466.933361, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.81430715646209, 0.18569284353791002 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 156, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\n\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \n\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\n\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y) Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\n\n**Data**\n\n- [Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n\n- [Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/)." }, { "id": 3739, "title": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-26T13:57:13.962749Z", "published_at": "2020-02-29T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:27:43.667246Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-29T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-02-29T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3739, "title": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?", "created_at": "2020-02-26T13:57:13.962749Z", "open_time": "2020-02-29T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-02T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-02T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie *Sleeper*, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not \"steak or cream pies or hot fudge\", foods known by (future) science to be healthy.\n\nIn the 45+ years since then it's not gotten *that* much better. A case in point is the [Ketogenic diet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketogenic_diet), characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates. \n\nThe idea that a diet containing items like a [bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg](https://queenketo.com/ultimate-keto-low-carb-bacon-cheese-burger-chips/) would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be:\n\n\"It is generally acknowledged in the scientific community that a ketogenic diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people when adopted for a period of several years, at a level comparable to (say) the Mediterranean diet as of 2020.\"\n\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n\n* If at any time after the ***date of Jan 1, 2025*** the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n\n* Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n\n****\n*edited 2020-03-05* to change the statement from \"typical person\" to \"some identified and significant population of people.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3739, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763194175.768356, "end_time": 1764369149.1507, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763194175.768356, "end_time": 1764369149.1507, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6180264556225189 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04504395144454423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01710601422024607, 0.0, 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1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7691329815268366 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287725.980609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287725.980609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4590860241741197, 0.5409139758258803 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 215, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3737, "title": "Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?", "short_title": "Food shortage by Jun 2020?", "url_title": "Food shortage by Jun 2020?", "slug": "food-shortage-by-jun-2020", "author_id": 106883, "author_username": "tb", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-26T08:25:41.769270Z", "published_at": "2020-03-02T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.511192Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-02T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-04-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-06T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-03-02T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 180, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 3737, "title": "Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?", "created_at": "2020-02-26T08:25:41.769270Z", "open_time": "2020-03-02T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-03T08:09:41.073154Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-03T08:09:41.073154Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-06T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-06-06T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-30T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-04-30T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Novel coronavirus (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) as denoted by the World Health Organization, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during the [2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak). \n\nA situation summary from the US Centers for Disease Control is available [here](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2Fnovel-coronavirus-2019.html).", "resolution_criteria": "**Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?**\n\nThe question resolves positively if a major newspaper (NYT, WaPo, etc.) reports about a food shortage, i.e. low to none stocks of food, drink and other necessities in shops, as judged by a Metaculus admin. The shortage must occur before before June 6th and last for 3 or more days. This should directly or indirectly caused by COVID-19 in a major metropolitan area. Note that for the purpose of this question, we are disqualifying Wuhan from counting toward positive resolutions. \n\nA metropolitan area is considered major if it has population greater than 2M people as reported by wikipedia.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3737, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588275804.944471, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 180, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1189590909090909 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588275804.944471, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 180, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1189590909090909 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.09461578559812842 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 6.031663097925648, 0.9078087445249333, 2.103318394867522, 0.7850952347012345, 5.008523869801072, 0.18953212069859582, 1.0536927215579153, 0.44405674622437397, 0.31185219694544, 2.1178776962933585, 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"vote": { "score": 39, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 631, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Novel coronavirus (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) as denoted by the World Health Organization, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during the [2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak). \n\nA situation summary from the US Centers for Disease Control is available [here](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2Fnovel-coronavirus-2019.html)." }, { "id": 3734, "title": "Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 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"id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3734, "title": "Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?", "created_at": "2020-02-24T16:36:04.491879Z", "open_time": "2020-02-28T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-29T21:44:02.541330Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-29T21:44:02.541330Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-02T11:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-02T11:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-02T11:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Metaculus has generated a large number of [questions about COVID-19](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:bio--infectious-disease--novel-coronavirus), a concerning number of which resolve on a single data source: the [JHU CSSE COVID-19 dashboard](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) (and its [underlying data](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19)) If it were to permanently break, cease being updated, or dramatically change format, it could put many of our COVID-19 questions in jeopardy of being resolved ambiguous. \n\n**Will the COVID-19 dashboard be maintained through 2020-12-31?**\n\n## Resolution\n\nThe question resolves negatively if *any* of the following occur:\n\n* The dashboard is shut down with no clearly designated successor.\n* The dashboard is left unmaintained for a period of at least 14 consecutive days, starting at any time after 2020-02-26.\n* The dashboard is [clearly broken](https://imgur.com/w6Aarz6) on 2020-12-31.\n* The dashboard is paywalled on 2020-12-31.\n* Three or more Metaculus questions which were written to resolve based on data from the dashboard are resolved as \"Ambiguous\" because it was not possible to use the dashboard or its data to adjudicate the resolution.\n\nOtherwise, this question resolves positively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3734, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609470856.181096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609470856.181096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9852239783038295 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00041057211391749783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3733, "title": "Will any bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075?", "created_at": "2020-02-24T16:32:08.595197Z", "open_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-06T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-06T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-05-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\n\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)) None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\n\n*** Will any bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075? ***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if any bitcoin known to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto's original wallet addresses have been transferred, according to credible media reports.\n\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, this will not count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else who then spend them, this will qualify for resolution. Any transactions in any amount of bitcoin will qualify for resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3733, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763926348.805265, "end_time": 1764015813.365851, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763926348.805265, "end_time": 1764015813.365851, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.1973481040938718 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3469183260877188, 1.171191599263953, 0.3193625093223559, 0.0, 0.4080235318474639, 0.6015901690426233, 0.22659881065625792, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.489790910524392, 0.0, 0.007406772822704901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2650471637951979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5164960024539398, 0.24345507665133376, 1.55089158814244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025290490754560285, 0.0, 2.438337409090204, 0.06930124042864184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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Users must comment on this post to be counted. Such comments should include:\n\n1. The date on which the user received a positive test result for COVID-19.\n2. Some sort of evidence to back up their claims, such as a photo of a doctor's note, ideally with a doctor's signature.\n\nThe evidence can be presented either publicly in comment itself or via private correspondence with site moderators. It is up to the judgment of the moderators to determine the legitimacy of claimed diagnoses.\n\n*Edit (4 April): Positive serology tests that establish, beyond reasonable doubt, that the user has had an infection, is sufficient for positive resolution.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3724, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588303551.150046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 236, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588303551.150046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 236, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8048345395768186 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"2025-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\n\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\n\n***Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n\n- [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service))\n- The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit))\n- [World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/)\n- [The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/)\n- The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html)\n- [Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html)\n- [The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/)\n- [Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england)\n- [The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx)\n- [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=)\n- [The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html)\n\nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\n\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\n\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3715, "aggregations": { 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"type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\n\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response", "resolution_criteria": "Question: **Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2020-05-17?**\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2020-05-17, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n\n* [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service))\n* The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit))\n* [World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/)\n* [The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/)\n* The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html)\n* [Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html)\n* [The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/)\n* [Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england)\n* [The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx)\n* [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=)\n* [The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html)\n\nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\n\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\n\nThis question has a long-term [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3710, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1589687427.328025, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1589687427.328025, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0383002781834394 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 14.38683154004369, 1.282411412729029, 3.0472047053355675, 0.2422007418193307, 1.3943730774744583, 0.8791289399629981, 0.07997732058131438, 0.20855880641012264, 0.00131803022059451, 0.1816207651368464, 0.28433837842574616, 7.563255963372545e-05, 0.01252412240802808, 0.0030086961258087345, 0.5618737574268367, 0.11348295130257362, 0.00014979415971376684, 0.0, 0.010957093784480926, 0.8257524226653394, 0.0, 0.05004317667218387, 0.002420167583719208, 0.0, 0.15721783203275125, 0.3051452173612108, 0.0016563742744195003, 0.006469324459044478, 0.0, 0.005044564124136949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003847783626760446, 0.001959104791507355, 0.0010495194299566116, 0.007210329697992311, 0.0, 0.0017900570708920113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001932752839598373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015312158981288855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028002537396866313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.48151740424407e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00040718274235922435, 0.04937606414284304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.609468725227755, "coverage": 0.9975477428310734, "baseline_score": 66.69557711955112, "spot_peer_score": 19.347001651454555, "peer_archived_score": 10.609468725227755, "baseline_archived_score": 66.69557711955112, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.347001651454555 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1589687427.377386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1589687427.377386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9601096405340523, 0.03989035946594765 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 687, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\n\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response" }, { "id": 3709, "title": "Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?", "short_title": "DPRK covid cases?", "url_title": "DPRK covid cases?", "slug": "dprk-covid-cases", "author_id": 106142, "author_username": "AABoyles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-21T18:16:21.382777Z", "published_at": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.880542Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-05-15T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-05-15T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-05-17T17:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-17T17:04:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 150, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3709, "title": "Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?", "created_at": "2020-02-21T18:16:21.382777Z", "open_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-25T12:22:37.647963Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-25T12:22:37.647963Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-05-17T17:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-17T17:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-05-17T17:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-05-15T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-05-15T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 2020-02-19, the North Korean envoy to the UN [claimed that North Korea has experienced no cases of COVID-19](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-northkorea/who-says-no-indication-of-coronavirus-cases-in-north-korea-idUSKBN20D04S), the [novel Coronavirus](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019) which appears to have emerged from Wuhan province in China late in 2019. The North Korean Government has, however, enacted a strict policy of quarantining persons entering the country found to be exhibiting signs of a fever. The World Health Organization (WHO) has also indicated that they do not have any evidence of an outbreak of COVID-19 in North Korea, though South Korean media has claimed that such an outbreak is indeed occurring, and news of it being repressed by the North Korean Government.\n\nRegardless of whether the possible pandemic has reached North Korea already, such temperature-based quarantines are of indeterminate effectiveness. A [growing body of evidence](https://www.vox.com/2020/2/20/21143785/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-transmission-how) suggests that [COVID-19 may be transmissible by asymptomatic carriers](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028), rendering symptom-based quaratine measures effectively useless.\n\nThus, there are two questions of relevance to North Korea: first has or will COVID-19 reach its population in spite of the quarantine measures, and second, will the North Korean government affirm the breach? Alternately, will the WHO confirm a North Korean outbreak, regardless of whether the North Korean government announces it? Stated more succinctly,", "resolution_criteria": "**Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?**\n\nThis question resolves negatively if on 2020-05-17, no public announcements or press releases by either the WHO or North Korean government have been issued affirming that any cases of COVID-19 have been discovered in North Korea. 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The North Korean Government has, however, enacted a strict policy of quarantining persons entering the country found to be exhibiting signs of a fever. The World Health Organization (WHO) has also indicated that they do not have any evidence of an outbreak of COVID-19 in North Korea, though South Korean media has claimed that such an outbreak is indeed occurring, and news of it being repressed by the North Korean Government.\n\nRegardless of whether the possible pandemic has reached North Korea already, such temperature-based quarantines are of indeterminate effectiveness. A [growing body of evidence](https://www.vox.com/2020/2/20/21143785/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-transmission-how) suggests that [COVID-19 may be transmissible by asymptomatic carriers](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028), rendering symptom-based quaratine measures effectively useless.\n\nThus, there are two questions of relevance to North Korea: first has or will COVID-19 reach its population in spite of the quarantine measures, and second, will the North Korean government affirm the breach? Alternately, will the WHO confirm a North Korean outbreak, regardless of whether the North Korean government announces it? Stated more succinctly," }, { "id": 3699, "title": "Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?", "short_title": "at least 10k covid deaths in 2020", "url_title": "at least 10k covid deaths in 2020", "slug": "at-least-10k-covid-deaths-in-2020", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-19T16:34:49.718797Z", "published_at": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.590305Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-03-22T04:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-22T04:40:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 139, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3699, "title": "Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?", "created_at": "2020-02-19T16:34:49.718797Z", "open_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-23T00:56:12.266706Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-23T00:56:12.266706Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-22T04:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-22T04:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-22T04:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019-nCoV_acute_respiratory_disease) formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by [SARS-CoV-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing [2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak).\n\nAs of 19 February 2020, [over 75,000 cases and over 2,000 deaths have been reported, mostly in China.](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)", "resolution_criteria": "This question asks: **Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported on [the Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6), or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable, another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3699, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1584875016.920737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1584875016.920737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9552947965475505 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0937993177476182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.733499220307512e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009219541705606429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.993842542530222e-05, 0.027552542035171254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002668854500391818, 0.00012866984915586968, 0.0, 0.0013974642481702773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010838361664361995, 0.017040373379129392, 0.000349760912830967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012725174188212094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1040481997293384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009507487336536658, 0.0, 0.00167742335484196, 0.0015322237490263616, 0.000626297507510926, 0.48032679549893653, 0.0, 0.0005335790335237847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035753027440737226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26834044473384155, 0.00028754461778419976, 0.15691614817881377, 0.0, 0.4125635227798567, 0.018842043561287512, 0.586283622370011, 0.0, 0.6827066165066232, 0.0, 0.49995634450965887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04449932503203936, 0.0776658941692389, 1.2050113783791554, 0.582327305228751, 0.17439096152202027, 3.819397482000834, 13.154609387347941 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.3893566002768605, "coverage": 0.10327008948753982, "baseline_score": 2.5606098779783317, "spot_peer_score": 42.34680249774998, "peer_archived_score": 3.3893566002768605, "baseline_archived_score": 2.5606098779783317, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.34680249774998 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1584846917.282016, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1584846917.282016, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.16497853882003422, 0.8350214611799658 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 433, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019-nCoV_acute_respiratory_disease) formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by [SARS-CoV-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing [2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak).\n\nAs of 19 February 2020, [over 75,000 cases and over 2,000 deaths have been reported, mostly in China.](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)" }, { "id": 3697, "title": "Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-woman-be-the-democratic-candidate-for-vice-president-of-the-usa-in-2020", "author_id": 109828, "author_username": "seahen123", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-18T23:11:32.931926Z", "published_at": "2020-03-06T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.633745Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-06T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-06-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"The cruise ship [Diamond Princess](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_(ship)) has gained notoriety over the past weeks as one of the largest sites for a COVID-19 outbreak outside of China. Will this notoriety end the Diamond Princess's career as a cruise ship, at least under that name?\n\nThis will resolve positive if the Diamond Princess is announced to be leaving service as a cruise ship, or if it announced that the ship has been renamed. It will resolve negative if it is reported that the Diamond Princess has taken on new paying passengers for a pleasure cruise. \n\nIf at question resolution time neither of the above have occurred this will resolve ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3696, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1596205447.688751, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1596205447.688751, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9108374091372506 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.02013087994777349, 0.0, 0.014029819396176394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00687159674027567, 0.0, 0.19171416236519723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001784123526449647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004849750561674346, 0.01338597297154493, 0.0, 0.0, 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"will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race", "author_id": 111737, "author_username": "Haifisch", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-18T14:04:52.801730Z", "published_at": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.750958Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-03T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, 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His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.\n\nThis question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. 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An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. 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An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors." }, { "id": 3682, "title": "Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?", "short_title": "Health Agencies Claim COVID Lab Origin", "url_title": "Health Agencies Claim COVID Lab Origin", "slug": "health-agencies-claim-covid-lab-origin", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-17T00:28:15.701750Z", "published_at": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.098137Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 113, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T23:42:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 589, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3682, "title": "Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?", "created_at": "2020-02-17T00:28:15.701750Z", "open_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-20T00:40:54.041930Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-20T00:40:54.041930Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T23:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T16:19:56.180620Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\n\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\n\n> In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\n\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\n\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\". *ETA (2021-07-06) to clarify, this doesn't 'dispute all lab-origins, just those that involve genetic modification.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that SARS-CoV-2 originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For this question we will consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n\n- [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service))\n- The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit))\n- [World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/)\n- [The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/)\n- The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html)\n- [Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html)\n- [The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/)\n- [Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england)\n- [The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx)\n- [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=)\n- [The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html)\n\nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a single public health agency.\n\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3682, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735688434.000358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 588, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735688434.000358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 588, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0355570645544943 ], "histogram": [ [ 21.4938731339196, 11.2223498507793, 2.3777236358864555, 1.1153891325183658, 1.2281149803232836, 3.163339647601311, 0.8349666542693264, 0.9801595106812455, 0.9821373207924577, 0.04662726021445934, 1.3460899876927828, 0.1476679933804997, 0.08496324736288398, 0.05818996148114958, 0.02404055484187919, 0.22453828641103857, 0.030357653003609205, 0.06324373991842569, 0.003104810538087686, 0.011545546687684594, 0.2843005475417237, 0.0008475614036527606, 0.03309220245008107, 0.0002712898718712866, 0.03460750517226416, 0.11821634081491053, 0.003830348452723955, 3.07348464807761e-07, 0.03357361334590027, 0.0, 0.17634498081539018, 0.019784929090796283, 0.0006033393473235977, 0.019249994489717433, 0.0006295373068110127, 0.01590905750867103, 0.02301879749485812, 1.9054462191704676e-05, 5.967291371781284e-05, 0.002076848726302454, 0.07578985485926944, 0.01539369171863284, 3.775436320440254e-05, 2.149386410258966e-05, 0.00012651571433294325, 0.0033186746301223915, 0.0005129258293392489, 6.415607402652571e-05, 0.0012729406694778024, 0.020759979107994764, 0.14430625938702435, 5.425743306056552e-06, 0.007186842249665133, 0.0, 4.53588860335644e-05, 0.00827036603593213, 0.0038953373686507163, 7.904430082046505e-07, 0.0, 2.904133369768145e-05, 0.022445669776383285, 0.006471546575140022, 1.9296444408566645e-06, 0.0, 0.0061428956054753285, 0.01468147092308532, 0.007003048085076767, 0.0025464770514844206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020336399880370756, 0.0022817577698008456, 8.813806962281358e-06, 0.0, 6.869507791661021e-05, 1.3031571466548329e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008029841118315822, 0.0, 0.012945307655518032, 0.0, 5.215884750205103e-05, 0.0, 0.0003250808732771796, 0.022840458601855466, 0.005997986892819565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009981586298873763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038212808416791246, 0.0, 1.276187993029851e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3855507072739033 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 59.75765729833606, "peer_score": 12.149462764217935, "coverage": 0.9996058260872078, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996058260872078, "spot_peer_score": 25.009480866225648, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 59.75765729833606, "peer_archived_score": 12.149462764217935, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.009480866225648, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286944.274258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 572, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286944.274258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 572, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9950903589482653, 0.0049096410517347365 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 58, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2093, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\n\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\n\n> In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\n\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\n\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\". *ETA (2021-07-06) to clarify, this doesn't 'dispute all lab-origins, just those that involve genetic modification.*" }, { "id": 3681, "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-17T00:06:20.260234Z", "published_at": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.037136Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 370, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-27T14:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-27T14:55:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 881, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3681, "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", "created_at": "2020-02-17T00:06:20.260234Z", "open_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-24T21:04:21.097877Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-24T21:04:21.097877Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-27T14:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-27T14:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-05-27T14:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\n\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \n\n> The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\n\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n\n* If at any time after the ***date of May 1, 2020*** the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question \ncloses. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), \nresolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n\n* Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n\n****\n\n(*Edited 2020-04-15* to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3681, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1619845176.136585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 877, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1619845176.136585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 877, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.12447436262516333 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 14.557723795059616, 2.2300859506711754, 4.820736275276748, 1.766056398397034, 4.579651696857362, 2.039077868226164, 0.7055461721886029, 1.4123055989263245, 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"2020-02-18T22:56:23.010578Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-08T07:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-08T07:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-07-08T07:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-06T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-06-06T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "At the time of writing, [FiveThirtyEight's model](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo) [[archived](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021303/projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/)] estimates that there is a 38% probability that no candidate in the Democratic Primary will win more than half of pledged delegates. This probability is higher even to what the model assigns Bernie Sanders, the frontrunner in the race (36%). Yet the question of which candidate will be chosen by the DNC in the event of a contested convention remains highly uncertain.\n\n**Resolution**\n\nIf a candidate obtains a majority of pledged delegates, the question will resolve ambiguously. Otherwise, it will resolve positively if the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates is also the candidate who wins the nomination, and negatively otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3677, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1591412057.371787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1591412057.371787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.7349104093477202 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.009237422463571529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8873410162862754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546221569306814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04778779694851711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08022641610624417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"2020-02-15T17:10:53.095991Z", "open_time": "2020-02-18T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-19T21:52:54.122654Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-19T21:52:54.122654Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-01T22:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-01T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-01T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "While having a lot of great qualities, prediction markets do have some drawbacks. For one, betting markets can be manipulated by anyone with enough resources if they do not mind losing some of them (in expectation). As a case in point, there is some evidence that in 2012 Romney's chances were artificially boosted, and some\n(rank) speculation (see e.g. [here](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/2/14/21137882/prediction-markets-bloomberg-sanders-president)) that Bloomberg's could be similarly benefitting. \n\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \n\n> A major prediction market such as PredictIt, Betfair, or one of comparable liquidity has had 2020 Presidential election results materially changed using bets made with funds tied directly to Bloomberg or his campaign.\n\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. It does not address the source of knowledge or fix many of the details. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n\n* If at any time after the date of ***2020-12-01*** the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n\n* Otherwise, on or about the close and resolve date of 2022-01-01, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3671, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1607772570.945563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1607772570.945563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07291880847238204 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.037484601237091, 0.6400773967763421, 0.42974373057187965, 0.29439709604378117, 0.0, 0.04562961964144999, 0.01590144797162688, 0.054167126145610874, 0.12329681104043291, 0.9435645664075315, 0.138607890209693, 0.8423945157233667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013662399302902292, 0.014275861551769443, 0.0024705024163893547, 0.1662887321634094, 0.0, 0.08228478959405798, 0.0, 0.02564172212892521, 0.3376335396423815, 0.001078956545637215, 0.018846480027783157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18445819292609114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03185388076940161, 0.02392715308150051, 0.123055089930964, 0.0, 0.004025379543753844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04508739161360364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013608525766900132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002932907971702584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003969259310572884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5239242875781319 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.0935534969294105, "coverage": 0.4209353325399911, "baseline_score": 37.91150094745911, "spot_peer_score": 21.954899307158193, "peer_archived_score": 7.0935534969294105, "baseline_archived_score": 37.91150094745911, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.954899307158193 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606862209.336557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1606862209.336557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9614739394550346, 0.038526060544965386 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 157, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
