Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5480
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5500", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5460", "results": [ { "id": 3671, "title": "Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-it-turn-out-that-bloomberg-manipulated-2020-election-prediction-markets", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-15T17:10:53.095991Z", "published_at": "2020-02-18T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.139596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-18T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-01T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-01T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-18T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3671, "title": "Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?", "created_at": "2020-02-15T17:10:53.095991Z", "open_time": "2020-02-18T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-19T21:52:54.122654Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-19T21:52:54.122654Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-01T22:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-01T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-01T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "While having a lot of great qualities, prediction markets do have some drawbacks. For one, betting markets can be manipulated by anyone with enough resources if they do not mind losing some of them (in expectation). As a case in point, there is some evidence that in 2012 Romney's chances were artificially boosted, and some\n(rank) speculation (see e.g. [here](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/2/14/21137882/prediction-markets-bloomberg-sanders-president)) that Bloomberg's could be similarly benefitting. \n\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \n\n> A major prediction market such as PredictIt, Betfair, or one of comparable liquidity has had 2020 Presidential election results materially changed using bets made with funds tied directly to Bloomberg or his campaign.\n\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. It does not address the source of knowledge or fix many of the details. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n\n* If at any time after the date of ***2020-12-01*** the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n\n* Otherwise, on or about the close and resolve date of 2022-01-01, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3671, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1607772570.945563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1607772570.945563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07291880847238204 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.037484601237091, 0.6400773967763421, 0.42974373057187965, 0.29439709604378117, 0.0, 0.04562961964144999, 0.01590144797162688, 0.054167126145610874, 0.12329681104043291, 0.9435645664075315, 0.138607890209693, 0.8423945157233667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013662399302902292, 0.014275861551769443, 0.0024705024163893547, 0.1662887321634094, 0.0, 0.08228478959405798, 0.0, 0.02564172212892521, 0.3376335396423815, 0.001078956545637215, 0.018846480027783157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18445819292609114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03185388076940161, 0.02392715308150051, 0.123055089930964, 0.0, 0.004025379543753844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04508739161360364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013608525766900132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002932907971702584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003969259310572884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5239242875781319 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.0935534969294105, "coverage": 0.4209353325399911, "baseline_score": 37.91150094745911, "spot_peer_score": 21.954899307158193, "peer_archived_score": 7.0935534969294105, "baseline_archived_score": 37.91150094745911, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.954899307158193 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606862209.336557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1606862209.336557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9614739394550346, 0.038526060544965386 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 157, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3666, "title": "Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-predictit-prediction-market-outperform-fivethirtyeights-forecasts-for-the-2020-super-tuesday-democratic-primaries", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-13T22:27:45.442853Z", "published_at": "2020-02-16T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.797520Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-16T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-03-02T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-03-02T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-05T20:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-05T20:16:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-16T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3666, "title": "Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?", "created_at": "2020-02-13T22:27:45.442853Z", "open_time": "2020-02-16T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-17T05:52:10.679231Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-17T05:52:10.679231Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-05T20:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-05T20:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-05T20:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-03-02T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-02T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Nate Silver and his fivethirtyeight site](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com) has achieved significant notoriety for developing a system to carefully aggregate election polls to create well-calibrated statistical forecasts of outcome elections; his site publishes daily updates to predictions for primary and general elections in House, Senate and Presidential races.\n\nPrediction markets have offered an alternative to poll aggregation in forecasting elections. Markets such as (the now defunct) InTrade, the [Iowa Electronic Markets](http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/), [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/), and others ask users to buy and sell shares assigned to each candidate in each race, so that the price point corresponds to the probability of victory. In this question we focus on PredictIt, which allows users to place relatively small real-money bets on candidates.\n\nBoth [fivethirtyeight.com](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/california/) and [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/1/Dem-Nomination) have published probabilities for each of the 14 Super Tuesday Primaries on the Democratic side. (The races are California, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Colorado, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Utah, Maine, Vermont.)\n\n*Which forecasts will prove to be more accurate?*\n\nTo compare, we will score each set of predictions using a [Brier score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score) averaged over all \\(N=14\\) races, computed as\n\\[S = {1\\over N}\\sum_{i=1,N} \\sum_{j=1,M_i} (p_{ij}-o_{ij})^2,\\]\nwhere *j* enumerates the \\(M_i\\) possible outcomes (i.e. possible winners) in the *i*th race out of *N*, where \\(p_{ij}\\) is the forecast probability of candidate *j* winning the *i*th race, and \\(o_{ij}\\) is assigned 1 if candidate *j* wins the *i*th race, and 0 otherwise.\n\nFor example, if PredictIt assigned 52% to Sanders and 48% to Warren in the New York Democratic Primary and if Sanders won then PredictIt would achieve a Brier Score of \n\\[S=(0.52-1)^2+(0.48-0)^2 = 0.4608.\\]\nA lower Brier score is better, with perfect predictions corresponding to \\(S=0\\). (In the case where PredictIt's prices do not add up to $1, we will normalize them to $1 to convert to probabilities.)\n\nThis question resolves positively if the Brier score for the 14 races is lower for PredictIt's probabilities than for fivethirtyeight.com's probabilities, where we will take values as of noon EST on 3/2/2020, and election outcomes as reported on 3/3-3/4.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3666, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1583405132.332527, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1583405132.332527, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.54, 0.46 ], "means": [ 0.4293081122388244 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.24199013141308762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4779236959628912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4080235318474639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6015901690426233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04888313629975682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20728428597607368, 0.0, 0.26969150866663705, 0.14509961113708253, 0.0, 0.7058375332343048, 0.029133191509986833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2671618784699512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8045037155261421, 0.4363342524022516, 0.09579000750583701, 1.0983508757128284, 1.0248482013152438, 0.20046984838997883, 0.0, 2.708496410622752, 0.5829593671365929, 0.013393291873889481, 0.0, 0.30955542397724967, 0.03806556990920311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03338091191999331, 0.12665579477217298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08855060384366034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01032375252801334, 0.007406772822704901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079741623456276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.228601108618195, "coverage": 0.9943832213245274, "baseline_score": 5.293453902656707, "spot_peer_score": -2.6156605356022715, "peer_archived_score": 5.228601108618195, "baseline_archived_score": 5.293453902656707, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.6156605356022715 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1582930121.21494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1582930121.21494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7398917897332904, 0.26010821026670955 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3665, "title": "Will renewable energy contribute between 25% and 48% to global electricity production in 2030?", "short_title": "Renewable Electricity 25-48% by 2030", "url_title": "Renewable Electricity 25-48% by 2030", "slug": "renewable-electricity-25-48-by-2030", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-13T18:55:55.261431Z", "published_at": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T14:24:13.956859Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3665, "title": "Will renewable energy contribute between 25% and 48% to global electricity production in 2030?", "created_at": "2020-02-13T18:55:55.261431Z", "open_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-18T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-18T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\n\n> P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\n\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\n\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if renewable energy contributes between 25.00% and 48.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\n\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3665, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763057234.787946, "end_time": 1765467980.016289, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.987 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763057234.787946, "end_time": 1765467980.016289, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.987 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8860970965294833 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015882651392410054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026336717521666594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16395723086601607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1923005540618076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001276807099804374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017663413451567328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5740106836873015, 0.21355397263500578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017648365442997007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4703176534375764, 0.15537554365604425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18943802667266077, 0.002799460658272055, 0.008805273388987817, 0.0, 0.35725277772630515, 0.49944048457321877, 0.10877726768838866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14748982413675404, 0.08142108617301516, 0.0755024645973475, 0.05243826550374878, 0.0034884312213303956, 0.03833005933264137, 0.13982711046444565, 0.19471047058472515, 0.000344556985708156, 0.9835405138307532, 0.1711818354437345, 0.3457630219928799, 0.02771741701194672, 0.021164736891683533, 0.4536724698377367, 0.0, 2.7449323206613654, 0.0, 0.43672310813996756, 0.9739907670062915, 0.055614157745756766, 2.241657835440002, 0.3540289859303179, 0.9195685249471632, 2.2014970504904205, 5.149256372962647 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289664.111037, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289664.111037, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.09026138333943479, 0.9097386166605652 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 383, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\n\n> P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\n\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\n\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production)." }, { "id": 3657, "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-12T01:43:32.203013Z", "published_at": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T13:48:16.635749Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3657, "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", "created_at": "2020-02-12T01:43:32.203013Z", "open_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-16T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-16T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\n\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\n\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\n\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\n\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3657, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758808085.699298, "end_time": 1764221066.341933, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.602 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758808085.699298, "end_time": 1764221066.341933, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.602 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.398, 0.602 ], "means": [ 0.6231656188010757 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0105689540850258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07059083564021496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036618791251766876, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7188670154959382, 0.03249305809127576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0393382790230574, 0.004923348169013251, 0.0, 0.002164380995132114, 0.07136767952018534, 0.13778371961094252, 0.0, 0.2502185777012937, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1808329703581415, 0.01936509307245438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2293202388961884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31768015703601027, 1.3787400245982768, 0.008902640948057735, 0.0, 0.15062225698690318, 0.25038472073384077, 0.34331951429497504, 0.0, 0.014505757420011789, 0.0, 1.0067277123462752, 0.4994839393471079, 0.12585700968552796, 0.0, 0.5370676552411993, 0.46107253082862104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8023763793192508, 0.0, 0.06367247509170942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8348829204769834 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288266.797504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288266.797504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5725813267406645, 0.42741867325933547 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 169, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3656, "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?", "short_title": "100T Parameter DL Model Trained before 2026", "url_title": "100T Parameter DL Model Trained before 2026", "slug": "100t-parameter-dl-model-trained-before-2026", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-11T19:46:19.409370Z", "published_at": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:12.648662Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-28T14:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-28T14:06:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 203, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2341, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Training and Compute", "slug": "ai-training-and-compute", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aitraining8.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T20:04:19.044654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2344, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Technical Benchmarks", "slug": "ai-technical-benchmarks", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/technical.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T20:04:18.980942Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2344, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Technical Benchmarks", "slug": "ai-technical-benchmarks", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/technical.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T20:04:18.980942Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3656, "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?", "created_at": "2020-02-11T19:46:19.409370Z", "open_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-28T14:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-28T14:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-28T14:06:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\n\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\n\n> The Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \n\nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \n\nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\n\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3656, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673366527.815773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 308, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673366527.815773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 308, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8189073717313831 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.010567957062069335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5439736729080902, 0.0, 0.0, 4.848986897664157e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06172256371295444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3689444415369324, 0.19937828595995027, 0.5683040555824446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4161969162904903, 0.01017438640081154, 1.2312066300813762e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.335339970427081e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 2.812473940960813e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7792329042984274e-06, 0.6118876048436113, 0.009052664034645205, 0.0, 0.04232259372779937, 0.0, 0.0, 6.865541649084123e-05, 4.032586270828608e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 3.366650008641731e-07, 0.8113763140250307, 0.0011369069563175163, 0.9598285166057922, 0.19321435587416064, 0.0030197276000769593, 0.8919650205547344, 0.013261799191962697, 0.21558928761907287, 0.0, 0.0005273944787217758, 1.4504091671990116, 0.3838808391838448, 0.25359782564403793, 2.6195346570520975e-05, 0.0, 2.128636672962302, 0.03457581163737436, 0.4039865458502814, 0.11218148929529037, 0.18914153558308597, 1.4183918221115586, 0.07034470040755879, 0.5062802364015966, 0.054505693449163034, 0.906448778852697, 5.141688696258825, 2.960722371678432, 1.5638293789694635, 1.7919802635438333, 1.2233048820271564, 2.512513722995456, 0.5642977713151967, 0.9454173157223831, 0.1485139754116459, 1.9049445083465846 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.253682486911242, "coverage": 0.35740426387996976, "baseline_score": 27.9613393500524, "spot_peer_score": 16.252064140224686, "peer_archived_score": 4.253682486911242, "baseline_archived_score": 27.9613393500524, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.252064140224686 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647935161.933816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 203, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647935161.933816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 203, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.052270493109665805, 0.9477295068903342 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 55, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 528, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\n\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\n\n> The Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \n\nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \n\nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\n\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex." }, { "id": 3655, "title": "Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?", "short_title": "COVID-19 vaccine administered to 10K people in 2020?", "url_title": "COVID-19 vaccine administered to 10K people in 2020?", "slug": "covid-19-vaccine-administered-to-10k-people-in-2020", "author_id": 105951, "author_username": "Sylvain", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-11T16:47:52.867810Z", "published_at": "2020-02-13T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.644050Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-13T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 173, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-05-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-05-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-19T15:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-19T15:46:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-13T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 284, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3655, "title": "Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?", "created_at": "2020-02-11T16:47:52.867810Z", "open_time": "2020-02-13T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-14T23:38:42.421528Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-14T23:38:42.421528Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-19T15:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-19T15:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-19T15:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-05-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-05-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Covid-19](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)), also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during [the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)). The virus is [at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30011-4/pdf), the [virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome-related_coronavirus).\n\nVarious research groups [have started work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus#Vaccine_research) on a vaccine to fight the virus, with [some](https://web.archive.org/web/20200125203723/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-vaccines-idUSKBN1ZN2J8) hoping to start human tests as early as May 2020.\n\nQuestion: **Will a vaccine targeted at the Covid-19 be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?**\n\nDetails:\n\n + Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. This excludes media and institutions affiliated or otherwise under the control of the Chinese government.\n\n + A single vaccine has to be administered to 10000 people.\n\n + A vaccine can trigger: \n\n + Positive resolution if there is consensus that it protects against Covid-19.\n + Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n\n + Negative resolution occurs only when there is no vaccine triggering either positive or ambiguous resolution.\n\n + The aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among non-china-affiliated medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\n\n + This resolves whenever the relevant media reports are published, or on 2021-01-01 (whichever comes first).\n\n + If this resolves positively, it does not close retroactively (sorry for the lost points).\n\n+ A single vaccine has to be administered to 10000 people.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3655, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1590962120.412598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 284, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1590962120.412598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 284, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6976658255351068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.015019396374442879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014370943539201618, 0.0, 0.0, 3.545914531627443e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02324152637984095, 0.0, 9.119913814601659e-05, 2.0235803609558215e-06, 0.0, 0.011135848295346975, 0.0, 1.2609182914930787e-06, 8.53299737704959e-05, 0.0, 0.7203045727341989, 1.1337023260583464e-06, 0.05182936593709955, 0.08211788419609617, 0.0035846105745740153, 0.0016994809703431595, 0.3881645909742561, 0.0, 0.4841654682093062, 0.006893343357549379, 0.014643462873391452, 0.0, 0.0010892808155371005, 0.0015246057630694744, 0.0, 0.8431178448659363, 0.00035113624655329275, 1.000011478050813, 0.011772126353253672, 0.003932063027827796, 0.7041152874816076, 0.023621905589324654, 0.2210109617831442, 0.00660360227135533, 0.119010167169107, 0.46200792357511583, 0.6801292451319408, 0.013333853645869118, 0.0, 0.29703724353221983, 2.6604641148079264, 1.5847629221112935, 0.764009088017335, 0.0019849655232808665, 0.0034411152524201996, 1.2427301657755798, 0.3593898321988558, 1.7289959169007703, 0.2272590540386659, 0.6279743693885504, 1.1488739640567562, 0.1629428783130656, 1.8700964987366784, 0.004293962574364211, 0.30389149914921065, 2.067666295781234, 0.045301248939271566, 0.2909750675444963, 0.0018935643962429039, 0.8675675762860897, 1.2593392457856998, 0.19013794650487825, 0.2508896096080528, 0.521989777228451, 0.0, 1.3887728908034513, 1.5798295849804385, 0.4684205510866612, 1.0300393879822098, 0.2649736610783814, 0.5337200868332638, 0.02668795361031915, 0.053723150134232824, 0.0, 0.10480524147166714, 1.5989260977235777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17914610161301323, 0.5851356762421215 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 25.136944717060913, "coverage": 0.9996372899301548, "baseline_score": 5.385274118154947, "spot_peer_score": -20.30887150291278, "peer_archived_score": 25.136944717060913, "baseline_archived_score": 5.385274118154947, "spot_peer_archived_score": -20.30887150291278 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1590962120.499675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 284, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1590962120.499675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 284, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1686739546765379, 0.8313260453234621 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 55, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 944, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3650, "title": "Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?", "short_title": "CDC travel notice for thailand may 2020", "url_title": "CDC travel notice for thailand may 2020", "slug": "cdc-travel-notice-for-thailand-may-2020", "author_id": 109983, "author_username": "CullenOKeefe", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-11T04:47:39.621108Z", "published_at": "2020-02-14T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.601935Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-14T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-03-23T13:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-23T13:03:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-14T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3650, "title": "Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?", "created_at": "2020-02-11T04:47:39.621108Z", "open_time": "2020-02-14T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-14T20:03:11.822207Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-14T20:03:11.822207Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-23T13:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-23T13:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-23T13:03:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The CDC's [level 3 Travel Health Notice](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices#travel-notice-definitions) advises against non-essential travel:\n\n> Warning Level 3 (Red): Avoid all non-essential travel to this destination. The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.\n\nAs of February 11th, 2020 the CDC issues level 3 travel health notices [for China and Venezuela](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the CDC issues a Warning Level 3 Travel Health notice for Thailand (or any part thereof) before 00:00 GMT on May 1st, due to the 2019 novel coronavirus. Determination of the answer will be made by consulting [the relevant CDC noticeboard](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices). Positive resolution requires the CDC mentioning the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in their reasons for issuing the Level 3 Travel Health Notice.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3650, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1584979405.146638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1584979405.146638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.7119083992706088 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.010512340272192312, 0.0, 0.0020593749349257107, 0.0015753119476699363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011463879307081098, 0.0, 0.011752428427110738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003228095225742652, 0.045669104580177144, 0.0, 0.056580488217035305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010256932132203396, 0.013401757476467992, 0.14845965240733516, 0.02439891007171052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03372481884086813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06079863355189714, 0.0, 0.0026077048968387137, 0.0, 0.04664348863216757, 0.0, 0.05536264726386741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0797787163600839, 0.30202532778557656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16826274979803604, 0.0, 0.37747527053912144, 0.8308111453462594, 0.0, 0.2118020448654148, 1.2844637239593917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8578107098217, 1.1477802862667228, 1.0799487762254603, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5831143477656415, 0.3520703225627485, 0.0, 0.7802828173439227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37893917707757946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.433058029116845, 1.256550677531684, 0.005597961463592589, 0.008904031237728248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6444319296650869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22828764612479718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7324612079958936, 0.0, 0.24585267888888213, 0.0, 0.11243806167157062, 0.0, 1.2458173529885852 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 28.531517246992244, "coverage": 0.8147383331216208, "baseline_score": -67.95732369560884, "spot_peer_score": -61.68647404656734, "peer_archived_score": 28.531517246992244, "baseline_archived_score": -67.95732369560884, "spot_peer_archived_score": -61.68647404656734 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1584890486.911334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1584890486.911334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41475315759151277, 0.5852468424084872 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 276, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The CDC's [level 3 Travel Health Notice](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices#travel-notice-definitions) advises against non-essential travel:\n\n> Warning Level 3 (Red): Avoid all non-essential travel to this destination. The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.\n\nAs of February 11th, 2020 the CDC issues level 3 travel health notices [for China and Venezuela](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices)." }, { "id": 3648, "title": "Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?", "short_title": "Longbets Turing Test 2029", "url_title": "Longbets Turing Test 2029", "slug": "longbets-turing-test-2029", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-10T04:24:44.180429Z", "published_at": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T00:52:09.654023Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 111, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 525, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T22:44:46.170515Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T21:35:01.571893Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T21:35:01.571893Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3648, "title": "Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?", "created_at": "2020-02-10T04:24:44.180429Z", "open_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of [this bet](http://longbets.org/1/). If Mitchell Kapor wins, then this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\n\n> Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\n\n> Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\n\n> During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\n\n> The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3648, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763774246.969862, "end_time": 1765721687.288508, "forecaster_count": 437, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763774246.969862, "end_time": 1765721687.288508, "forecaster_count": 437, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7807626952304254 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3276102833613681, 0.4149652215047844, 1.4812376457985563e-05, 3.789317028777551e-05, 0.25083338503798375, 2.3401999963221707e-06, 1.1987276685581622e-05, 0.00034194334102340465, 0.8658830131033879, 0.22582218945839447, 2.2996583626888833e-08, 0.0, 0.00038351180707118366, 3.61632659055037e-05, 0.0009402464451753546, 0.0, 1.432574960946848e-06, 7.918527691382199e-07, 1.4833163694892797e-06, 0.09307153501005111, 0.0, 0.0005851907534809387, 0.357196336894061, 0.00018275555105906288, 0.9307409657782156, 1.9952637869640087e-07, 5.876663770362658e-07, 0.0006735769639192772, 0.0, 0.0006650195529157195, 4.6557639491075493e-07, 3.291639433973848e-05, 0.1788586784449678, 7.144556483268029e-06, 4.122241806401929e-05, 0.000548560108496862, 0.458437262821335, 0.0, 4.833961860012639e-05, 0.0031912766815365306, 0.0, 7.805189664678056e-09, 8.88695164007042e-06, 0.20900703344158308, 0.010101831549236084, 0.0, 1.6934006117159156e-06, 0.1375652358362385, 0.0, 2.0158720575300433, 0.014411859881521093, 2.4694875157010392e-05, 2.1324511008682246e-05, 0.0002821414725317662, 0.16727384330688919, 4.0113150483652846e-08, 7.302901526625574e-08, 0.0, 2.7201454414960216e-05, 0.3743029325803087, 0.0007795311759207665, 0.03114974605204624, 0.01641402601131014, 0.0, 0.014603599843888065, 0.0002890639130958203, 0.29624778624019654, 3.1809403124850263e-06, 0.009527942163525194, 1.7531889363034687, 0.0006004419757815226, 0.011072115000995636, 0.004047790859765189, 0.0, 1.987221885914566, 0.35256486233817186, 0.002231977329617791, 0.5597451363670735, 0.1171815204916252, 2.5534396200451677, 0.08779531080990485, 0.6112734105639068, 1.2743118331525665, 0.7943317355916204, 3.16669429339548, 0.5568582500077989, 0.45963750936818487, 0.41660357155790606, 0.0, 4.708457307681957, 1.4638587176180826, 0.6063492228243471, 0.015434361197512502, 1.5667089256642477, 3.3080370502878256, 0.04387312496854828, 0.38848889370899603, 0.2973600573712425, 5.794630740456651 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287056.050522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 510, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287056.050522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 510, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4151307223837378, 0.5848692776162622 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 68, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1450, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/)." }, { "id": 3647, "title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?", "short_title": "Kevin Kelly Wins Yeti/Bigfoot Longbet?", "url_title": "Kevin Kelly Wins Yeti/Bigfoot Longbet?", "slug": "kevin-kelly-wins-yetibigfoot-longbet", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-10T04:19:47.278483Z", "published_at": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T16:53:13.827947Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 177, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3647, "title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?", "created_at": "2020-02-10T04:19:47.278483Z", "open_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-05T02:32:11.260938Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-05T02:32:11.260938Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/).", "resolution_criteria": "If Kevin Kelly is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stewart Brand is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3647, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076878.981878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076878.981878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.007072129404070537 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.609086124388554, 7.538709799582416, 0.4285569765675077, 1.3361235721688127, 0.0605393525197423, 0.0742956575045707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008076042456613084, 8.13114908122343e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004398142664397174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011420174104161159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033851346675641404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03673098156728842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704094925.980719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704094925.980719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 309, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/)." }, { "id": 3645, "title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?", "short_title": "Longbets Pilotless Planes", "url_title": "Longbets Pilotless Planes", "slug": "longbets-pilotless-planes", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-10T04:14:51.227732Z", "published_at": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T08:52:38.988013Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3645, "title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?", "created_at": "2020-02-10T04:14:51.227732Z", "open_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-14T12:50:28.336160Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-14T12:50:28.336160Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).\n\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3645, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763260759.601052, "end_time": 1765090437.981658, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763260759.601052, "end_time": 1765090437.981658, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.975, 0.025 ], "means": [ 0.06758233137903778 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.3597279123333355, 2.4588740243309095, 4.164918691946568, 0.029120852319141962, 0.20581659588754425, 2.193671240095293, 0.7256387346174489, 0.39951452948663285, 0.26180610981469427, 0.0, 1.4050289623165937, 0.009159026026701877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3414613372921817, 0.0, 0.0014745534528646544, 0.16256421897928386, 0.0, 0.1811150921987097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21526411833690412, 0.00028439359257530537, 0.03881022225732753, 0.02994786805522453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01552736403589142, 0.0, 0.042207751502632146, 0.0, 0.012659848026058247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5803857685370861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287870.144409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287870.144409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9956128199256046, 0.004387180074395412 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 215, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3633, "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2021 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2021-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-09T04:33:46.530427Z", "published_at": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.054016Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-23T01:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-23T01:30:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3633, "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2021 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", "created_at": "2020-02-09T04:33:46.530427Z", "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-13T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-13T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-23T01:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-23T01:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-23T01:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Note that there is [a duplicate of this question for 2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).\n\nAssume that in January 2021, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" (including those who say \"other\") are not counted.\n\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n\n* The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2021.\n* There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies.\n* A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s.\n\nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2021, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv from 2010 to 2020 (inclusive) in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3633, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609481091.781922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609481091.781922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.9102952419417377 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021782944378976117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025325464845858035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748170669261738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17330244988278473, 1.362843482180458, 0.0, 0.009543845697788052, 0.0, 0.007478022383809388, 0.0, 0.01511014823377393, 0.70552391225079, 0.0, 0.8740629144317068, 0.0, 0.5044245377084455, 0.5215625951172685, 0.0, 1.513472512900099, 0.1287484810673401, 0.988692077627659, 1.028975249094978, 0.08518320728616752, 2.362129385635548, 1.2899095914965384, 2.6935283194516164, 0.7102971102994611, 0.7777609026018569 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609481091.845999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609481091.845999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.011924046060064253, 0.9880759539399357 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3632, "title": "Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-punxsutawney-phils-prediction-of-an-early-spring-come-true-in-2020", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-09T01:45:13.096640Z", "published_at": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.950582Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-02-28T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-02-28T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-11T18:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-11T18:38:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3632, "title": "Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?", "created_at": "2020-02-09T01:45:13.096640Z", "open_time": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-13T13:36:25.829431Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-13T13:36:25.829431Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-11T18:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-11T18:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-11T18:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-02-28T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-02-28T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Every year on Groundhog's Day, [Punxsutawney Phil](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punxsutawney_Phil) emerges from his home on Gobbler's Knob and the Inner Circle reports whether Phil could see his shadow, indicating whether he predicts an early spring, or six more weeks of winter-like weather.\n\nThis year, Punxsutawney Phil [predicted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/02/groundhog-day-2020/) an early spring. Will he be right?\n\nThe Inner Circle maintains kayfabe and holds that Phil's record is flawless. [Independent analyses](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/groundhog-day-forecasts-and-climate-history) have been more harsh. \n\nFor the purpose of this question, an early spring is defined as February having a mean temperature in the United States above the 20th century average, as [reported](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/202001) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3632, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1582874060.221934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1582874060.221934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.7287512829110208 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.00902096530357109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08496097501576635, 0.05148079025128712, 0.0033186276747047033, 1.0885584578100533, 1.0, 1.1025621084957813, 0.4159242870145984, 0.4925280170881631, 0.2663246767136079, 0.20676347587575894, 1.7902124622170887, 0.0, 0.14772949571888752, 0.0, 0.22045724352962418, 1.509617315971548, 0.6813708105344584, 0.5722397438408153, 0.0, 0.04492986066620649, 0.017206765638407475, 0.27662639956287516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34946576266536805, 0.581551903919859, 0.0, 0.6682665939139737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31967846996806076 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.210677576418982, "coverage": 0.994904866194939, "baseline_score": 48.409535605181524, "spot_peer_score": 4.786312790967738, "peer_archived_score": 10.210677576418982, "baseline_archived_score": 48.409535605181524, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.786312790967738 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1582851891.236979, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1582851891.236979, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30982115805183974, 0.6901788419481603 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3631, "title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?", "short_title": "US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025", "url_title": "US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025", "slug": "us-federal-min-wage-increase-before-2025", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-09T00:43:33.032976Z", "published_at": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.010764Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T01:22:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 228, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3631, "title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?", "created_at": "2020-02-09T00:43:33.032976Z", "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-11T20:03:04.061286Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-11T20:03:04.061286Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T01:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T01:22:44.207934Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\n\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n\nThis question can be resolved at any time.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3631, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735697176.261921, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 225, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735697176.261921, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 225, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07546025895852922 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.256245174625498, 5.841800615076609, 1.8164884671098993, 2.048101611183544, 0.29642790371296085, 0.5992914782647862, 0.0, 0.4393086133333293, 0.03705692299312447, 0.5611343617394557, 0.3856583119500845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40752334324182954, 0.16380246780254085, 0.03401172498282945, 0.15770113906790986, 0.0, 0.4525031584387963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007819705109584272, 0.0, 0.04609642804606284, 0.12528651849546035, 0.0, 0.20250629264984293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21477641047541934, 0.0, 0.08126791390826721, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0003354626279025118, 0.0, 0.07812906549342398, 0.052522336735442224, 0.0, 0.05211710988485827, 0.0, 0.08458182128746981, 0.14380790740082766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010421566488506072, 0.07202924058694822, 0.10528489296723993, 0.08801967499341551, 0.0563797996415272, 0.0, 1.125780688627472e-05, 0.16156220637323043, 0.09157764112499917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018468188333161208, 0.5404068050816354, 4.1037654330136223e-05, 0.07633059150108087, 0.00036017080232249977, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0005215302967703716, 0.016133672853508488, 0.01433499599656285, 0.04006762085727981, 0.00736411649947267, 0.03520499415671059, 0.0014171987388278628, 0.012978902725937198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09752440177706623, 0.0008564230669672195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009125506517397578, 0.022063296587995506, 0.0013218267148875388, 0.0, 0.0032588480514368127, 0.026458691641216982, 0.0005693889547396956, 0.00044390938210533883, 0.012460654130214174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011912466259247953, 0.010988917428275588, 0.03216714041896377, 0.0034388404362368707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17844794036529887 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -38.56639104427531, "peer_score": 45.425900873881716, "coverage": 0.9998819218585749, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998819218585749, "spot_peer_score": 23.918827935836692, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": -38.56639104427531, "peer_archived_score": 45.425900873881716, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.918827935836692, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287899.857573, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 223, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287899.857573, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 223, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9958738600488519, 0.0041261399511480475 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 28, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 754, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3630, "title": "Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-tweet-that-bernie-sanders-is-a-communist-before-the-2020-election", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-09T00:37:37.530385Z", "published_at": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.731510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T11:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T11:52:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 192, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3630, "title": "Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?", "created_at": "2020-02-09T00:37:37.530385Z", "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-11T19:23:00.240229Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-11T19:23:00.240229Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T11:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T11:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-04T11:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if one of Donald Trump's tweets includes any of the following phrases (case insensitive):\n\n* \"Communist Bernie Sanders\"\n* \"Communist Bernie\"\n* \"Communist Sanders\"\n* \"Commie Bernie Sanders\"\n* \"Commie' Bernie Sanders\"\n* \"Commie' Bernie\"\n* \"Bernie Sanders is communist\"\n* \"Bernie Sanders is a communist\"\n\nOtherwise, it resolves negatively.\n\n\"Donald Trump's tweets\" means those made by the twitter handles [@realDonaldTrump](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/) or [@POTUS](https://twitter.com/potus).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3630, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604384949.890909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 192, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604384949.890909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 192, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02577597080110894 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 18.078344116871758, 2.6177758465458605, 0.21839757396743903, 1.7562347684594548, 2.038681135145308, 0.016414140078208198, 0.06292133685344872, 0.022225147977921748, 0.33646500721607253, 0.3616343042839604, 0.0, 0.0065739159159020994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386878577012507, 0.00620624696697367, 0.025774557078825366, 0.0034659993194868727, 0.007174766867174854, 0.156233052452701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007294958492744155, 0.10343439091787161, 0.0005357455979726682, 0.0025227679521557782, 0.0017068739395755086, 0.0, 0.16281919213179602, 0.09288353456509425, 0.0015960747049209923, 0.003228376432664148, 8.981546422675913e-06, 0.0028617157097950794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004744347454128503, 0.0, 0.004128644247754234, 0.0, 0.0008467742079468518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009111966155191117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004282161922924214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012656637725467797, 0.0007862761211511781, 0.011739765434792193, 0.0003070582524054184, 0.0, 0.0, 6.680278588461887e-05, 0.001431164403768477, 3.948428532128918e-06, 2.6093576956117678e-06, 0.00017334026632215358, 0.0, 8.856789844488691e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019068192381946933, 0.0, 4.615879161260245e-05, 0.0, 1.1118316018800408e-05, 0.006343342966404696, 0.0001045347819065672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001413468686970571, 0.0, 0.0003270313350864077, 0.0, 0.00015729509246470219, 1.928069039505176e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002295979354505611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0040914411893609864 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 54.52118769242217, "coverage": 0.9995517703959584, "baseline_score": 56.97172067633141, "spot_peer_score": -3.503017135976729, "peer_archived_score": 54.52118769242217, "baseline_archived_score": 56.97172067633141, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.503017135976729 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604384949.97996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 192, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604384949.97996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 192, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9861419873610386, 0.01385801263896133 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 583, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3629, "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?", "short_title": "NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030?", "url_title": "NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030?", "slug": "npvic-reaches-threshold-before-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-09T00:29:00.228976Z", "published_at": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T18:26:16.634317Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 134, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3629, "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?", "created_at": "2020-02-09T00:29:00.228976Z", "open_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3629, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763403966.292262, "end_time": 1763958184.47511, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763403966.292262, "end_time": 1763958184.47511, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15313352498191196 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.281532645551076, 0.4359049064786896, 0.3699118729301214, 0.0, 1.449616284438318, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5999260001522173, 0.0, 1.376275833222008, 0.005794210002007736, 2.0273746802315427, 0.4148842189603945, 0.4601249823577798, 3.3910252004315247, 2.419088266487374, 0.4861472984607545, 0.028180221208192014, 0.0, 0.33191994975242967, 0.39222570904440573, 0.0, 0.7688884600250975, 0.0, 1.0865097175257208, 0.08390289338901674, 0.0, 0.11395995326153327, 0.0, 0.030848411299493825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4934000419498369, 0.0030057296334305714, 0.03760203898756233, 0.04286846081930919, 0.09151368875844512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11072095130127213, 0.0011906560386692468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02053834569963692, 0.0037811024209338097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01606102074377398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011740563879277114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012363318553227375, 0.0, 0.12875091648662737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031914161448901615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08767639997917948 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287898.854751, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287898.854751, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9400183556450319, 0.059981644354968104 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 36, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 385, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College." }, { "id": 3621, "title": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?", "short_title": "Third party wins US Senate election by 2050", "url_title": "Third party wins US Senate election by 2050", "slug": "third-party-wins-us-senate-election-by-2050", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-08T22:18:43.737981Z", "published_at": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T01:06:04.028499Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3621, "title": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?", "created_at": "2020-02-08T22:18:43.737981Z", "open_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "So-called \"third parties\" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_(United_States)) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckley in 1970.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"independent\" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3621, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760144753.633689, "end_time": 1770973426.336947, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760144753.633689, "end_time": 1770973426.336947, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5071086592479104 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8069959133207646, 0.14217929762856515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2868980478847211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003823702696238957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021735444886810887, 0.0, 0.001934940675477372, 0.6128045583287188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013102376952695997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0739150703844549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3885970409927337, 0.011365680478248118, 1.837203594688825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08768704306713955, 0.03802288251322167, 0.05405938507063069, 0.41066503912303093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022042756185946867, 0.3035298154184065, 0.34037016375826123, 0.0, 1.159524835775004, 0.5007972792519598, 3.3907386494517118, 0.22926675464622376, 0.0, 0.08800667085893026, 0.0, 0.743386549240665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30490047081677385, 0.5016703139574856, 0.008707545135364378, 0.04592395875609627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04827425444877179, 0.3199701828586788, 0.017443009280097798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05639491532661435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16231635713725012, 1.3972812665386585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008944344918761182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9733548855926775 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287702.576798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287702.576798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7010611988071345, 0.2989388011928656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 278, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "So-called \"third parties\" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_(United_States)) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckley in 1970." }, { "id": 3620, "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?", "short_title": "China Recognizes Taiwan's Sovereignty by 2050", "url_title": "China Recognizes Taiwan's Sovereignty by 2050", "slug": "china-recognizes-taiwans-sovereignty-by-2050", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-08T22:07:49.865812Z", "published_at": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:11:00.337728Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 40, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 281, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T23:02:39.090887Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T23:02:39.090887Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3620, "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?", "created_at": "2020-02-08T22:07:49.865812Z", "open_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1 2050, The People's Republic of China formally and publicly recognizes the Sovereignty of the Republic of China (Taiwan)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3620, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763331049.917237, "end_time": 1772021502.040365, "forecaster_count": 269, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763331049.917237, "end_time": 1772021502.040365, "forecaster_count": 269, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.12472707213484648 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.898062950501832, 5.358574101066384, 4.270947435843294, 1.615844281239408, 1.2235533552294864, 1.6087920630369896, 0.09396404569861738, 0.42366170498099637, 1.8006074162173848, 0.6632513334588601, 1.4546955243422763, 0.04974483720307602, 0.0161079605414524, 0.003481291206185616, 0.04107896013319315, 2.214338833960526, 0.11313869603732088, 0.19362390275439167, 0.0009834649553652835, 0.0, 2.9451741222157106, 0.2698631638976666, 0.0, 0.007114691987760607, 0.000277796507250147, 0.021648860791132738, 0.000859319858485225, 0.003171143483444715, 0.24643039905603745, 0.0, 0.7835593901461512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002134501412583559, 0.0013775063760737883, 0.00048708742601457245, 0.0, 0.00674155130991893, 0.00010933329623348162, 0.0, 0.4819640444810588, 0.0, 3.622898649449157e-06, 1.643570164363053e-05, 0.0, 0.03739624750057659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014318328550471589, 1.094461405871722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20829030137157067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001632751539990011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6288628966770086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012783181874389699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000802642642283907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5048577700510246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018334228431940022 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289670.250792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 257, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289670.250792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 257, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9876305037562733, 0.012369496243726753 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 35, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 632, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government." }, { "id": 3617, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court change its membership size before 2050?", "short_title": "SCOTUS Changes Size before 2050", "url_title": "SCOTUS Changes Size before 2050", "slug": "scotus-changes-size-before-2050", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-08T21:53:50.456663Z", "published_at": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T01:16:35.736302Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 173, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T22:51:57.664846Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T22:51:57.664846Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3617, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court change its membership size before 2050?", "created_at": "2020-02-08T21:53:50.456663Z", "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-12T01:56:54.328074Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-12T01:56:54.328074Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US Supreme Court officially changes its regular number of sitting justices above or below 9 members at any point between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2050.\n\nExpected vacancies and arrivals of justices (retirements, deaths, and absences for health reasons) are not sufficient to resolve the question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3617, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760404585.073655, "end_time": 1768399046.029811, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760404585.073655, "end_time": 1768399046.029811, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.3840686957006274 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.14581242059625046, 0.0, 0.09930306664173083, 1.491442382829218e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031929310411760284, 0.0, 0.0003465694851074111, 0.11986760417290385, 5.2999261489737515e-05, 0.6620136324140562, 0.0, 0.3787456180890954, 0.2166439047702583, 0.0, 0.00012688248276391934, 0.14083788568311184, 0.0, 3.572883829369577, 0.0, 0.5966619506846377, 0.058205047330457726, 0.0, 2.102865540572952, 0.0003539860355884688, 0.0, 0.7798728794926684, 0.0, 1.1682810166150461, 0.0015930444561876706, 0.0005756171597093791, 0.0013754344269693284, 0.36416596670408075, 1.1114500747088556, 0.03867914753703813, 0.24342022069255662, 1.223541512775998, 0.6810017726577096, 0.3418581917787947, 0.5501179722909199, 0.02760756316946439, 0.8219120062681597, 0.16135437463954333, 0.36779082894267756, 0.3897888681976364, 0.0, 0.0038291107251858868, 0.023607824700644146, 3.779487567565725, 0.16989542881029396, 0.6214326350224493, 0.09469026361951567, 0.0, 0.8403582466009458, 0.001472671385575299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5142782292588561, 0.09027216920671509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038636048782825616, 0.5729098805173879, 0.0, 0.004387331517183269, 0.0, 0.030229159425356082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003573784974999305, 0.002770235431403037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10913293742115855, 0.0, 0.022599049287179127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007865787827795475, 0.0020499004366927795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8907922270503666 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289091.966089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289091.966089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7816117132980729, 0.21838828670192711 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 28, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 480, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress." }, { "id": 3616, "title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-08T21:47:33.548028Z", "published_at": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T17:42:54.488578Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3616, "title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?", "created_at": "2020-02-08T21:47:33.548028Z", "open_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-18T09:14:59.130763Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-18T09:14:59.130763Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\n\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3616, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763680781.069516, "end_time": 1770778829.309394, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763680781.069516, "end_time": 1770778829.309394, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.6099169049995717 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009515930146052827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15135065015418567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5372639136226741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029053770538821824, 0.03596248203138026, 0.0, 3.9645673795489656e-05, 0.0, 0.17969984004855352, 0.0, 8.243685776454938e-05, 0.0003053903230780154, 0.214979871287491, 0.0, 0.5754957237162456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1708571423271175, 0.9137779241198747, 0.008273826650734055, 0.0, 0.00010776811465529448, 0.0002929441077547779, 0.0014823661092634405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3568497449837702, 2.2245062414418544, 0.0, 0.004520329448545208, 0.3743652303435944, 0.08952510075820502, 1.502206953192374, 1.0718965722034537, 2.2208588506832707, 0.0, 0.8900190403192413, 0.8079834735849851, 0.47557823414982126, 0.3728283471504352, 0.0, 0.00046595238343834493, 0.20546702957182622, 0.42918827277109395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1266771116110164, 1.4710310091272985, 0.13386237734122874, 0.3204323066884699, 0.0, 0.8425105618055749, 0.7358046772274458, 0.001140110852669517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8740503824132818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24939073867431047, 0.013844404637653691, 0.24448421896714478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0005367503601643, 0.0034884312213303956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049218273047918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8535449575801866 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288996.482724, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288996.482724, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4999262458956216, 0.5000737541043784 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 436, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3614, "title": "If on 2020 June 7 no Democratic candidate has a majority, will Bernie Sanders be the nominee?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "if-on-2020-june-7-no-democratic-candidate-has-a-majority-will-bernie-sanders-be-the-nominee", "author_id": 110714, "author_username": "Eber", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-08T15:09:43.182671Z", "published_at": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.045324Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-06-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-11T22:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-11T22:03:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 124, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3614, "title": "If on 2020 June 7 no Democratic candidate has a majority, will Bernie Sanders be the nominee?", "created_at": "2020-02-08T15:09:43.182671Z", "open_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-23T21:45:16.422752Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-23T21:45:16.422752Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-11T22:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-11T22:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-07-11T22:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-06-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As of 2020 February 19, there are 8 <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Active_candidates' target='_blank'>active candidates</a> for the 2020 US Democratic Party presidential nominee: Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg and Joe Biden.\n\nFrom February 3 to June 6, about 3979 pledged delegates will pledge their votes to a candidate.\n\n<a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries' target='_blank'>To win the primary</a> at the Democratic convention's first ballot in July, a candidate needs over half of the pledged delegate votes: about 1990 (out of 3979).\n\nTo win the primary at any later ballots, a candidate needs over half of the votes from both pledged delegates and about 771 unpledged superdelegates: about 2376 (out of 4750 = 3979 + 771).\n\nThe <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Reforms_since_2016' target='_blank'>conditions in which superdelegates can cast decisive votes</a> have changed since the last election.\n\n<strong>If on 2020 June 7 every Democratic candidate has less than or equal to half of the pledged delegates, will Bernie Sanders be the nominee?</strong>\n\nThe question resolves:\n<ul><li>ambiguously if on 2020 June 7 *some* Democratic candidate has *over* half of the pledged delegates,</li>\n<br />\n<li>positively if on 2020 June 7 *every* candidate has *less than or equal to* half of the pledged delegates, *and* Bernie Sanders is the nominee, and</li>\n<br />\n<li>negatively otherwise,</li></ul>\nusing delegate counts from <a href='https://fivethirtyeight.com/' target='_blank'>FiveThirtyEight</a>.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3614, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1591552163.313223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1591552163.313223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03873343541210797 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 15.850660897982873, 0.7245836371596729, 1.84913089914824, 0.05704005639824197, 0.5687735518915754, 0.2696871765348008, 0.0, 0.007517431710136967, 0.0, 0.21496269612383262, 0.013004361367383222, 0.00873242814490656, 0.010321045467147733, 0.000344556985708156, 0.1635154760425905, 0.021567026119363605, 0.004221070941398243, 0.0031816227343480045, 0.0, 0.003529997810664714, 0.0015882651392410054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.9645673795489656e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6033569664374709, 0.0, 0.02062896797150185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04397526358958605, 0.0007963046448639612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.999105061480908e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04626956037701777, 0.0, 0.0007013206346315724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024675821166494894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008974201217770287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006150104251204265, 0.0, 0.0001364624942955446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27618870755715047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00046595238343834493 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1591552163.353875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1591552163.353875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9661156223185889, 0.03388437768141107 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 318, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
