Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5500
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Otherwise, it resolves negatively. \n\nAcceptable archive sites include archive.is and archive.org. However, any archival site that is determined to be trustworthy by Metaculus moderators would also work.\n\nThis question will close and resolve at the minimum date of any such archive, if it exists.\n\n*(Edited 2020-07-20 to change resolve date to date of archive rather than archive posting.)*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3612, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1610064381.013537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 347, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1610064381.013537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 347, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9718880573289087 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0954319839448049, 0.0007833608423394487, 0.0007063107688748667, 3.460175215018806e-05, 0.0034225327472267577, 0.0022997017624682894, 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"metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1610043106.898218, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 333, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1610043106.898218, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 333, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.15120559645427, 0.84879440354573 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1158, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3611, "title": "If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "if-trump-loses-the-election-in-2020-will-he-maintain-that-he-is-still-the-president-on-january-21st-2021", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-08T03:32:21.242909Z", "published_at": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.965446Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-11-04T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-04T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-24T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-24T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 154, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3611, "title": "If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?", "created_at": "2020-02-08T03:32:21.242909Z", "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-13T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-13T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-24T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-24T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-24T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-04T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-04T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Assume that a candidate other than Donald Trump wins the 2020 US Presidential election, meaning that either they recieve at least 270 votes in the electoral college, or that no candidate does and they win the election held in the House of Representatives for the Presidency. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that Trump maintains that he is still the president of the United States as of January 21st 2021. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n\nIf Trump wins the election, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3611, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604449874.257138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 154, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604449874.257138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 154, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.25573236144096867 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.5200078786557891, 0.5296325137431219, 0.6021699462759541, 0.004473099787215014, 0.7447044788391419, 0.2572220028144476, 0.010719767929095883, 0.3822993602468496, 2.1097363683653167, 2.041580403141305, 0.00015011297652547278, 0.28050224849895655, 0.048371613930827985, 0.0589969017565044, 0.6221600664365896, 0.6863295944229935, 0.5169212720339267, 0.0, 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"baseline_archived_score": 83.73036517744472, "spot_peer_archived_score": 63.81466158308728 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604449874.29353, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 154, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604449874.29353, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 154, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9620425633160503, 0.03795743668394967 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 273, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3608, "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", "short_title": "Cosmologists Favor Universe Acceleration", "url_title": "Cosmologists Favor Universe Acceleration", "slug": "cosmologists-favor-universe-acceleration", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-08T02:43:51.711902Z", "published_at": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:27:32.759371Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3608, "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", "created_at": "2020-02-08T02:43:51.711902Z", "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-12T08:19:13.588772Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-12T08:19:13.588772Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\n\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n\n* The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030.\n* There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies.\n* A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s.\n\nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3608, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759020746.412514, "end_time": 1764525867.148254, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.991 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759020746.412514, "end_time": 1764525867.148254, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.991 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9741385849221833 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3238880754090339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"open_time": "2020-02-10T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3607, "title": "Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?", "created_at": "2020-02-07T22:45:00.819285Z", "open_time": "2020-02-10T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-11T18:12:40.214234Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-11T18:12:40.214234Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-04T11:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-04T11:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-04T11:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-03-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Former Mayor of New York City and current Democratic candidate [Michael Bloomberg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Bloomberg) (b. 1942) has mounted a campaign with no precedent in US history. For one thing, he has refused to accept contributions and is instead self-funding his campaign; since entering the race in December last year, he has outspent [all the other candidates combined](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-campaign-ads/). Because he has received no external funding, Bloomberg was also automatically disqualified from participating in all of the primary debates. In addition, Bloomberg has chosen not to compete in any of the first four states, regarded by many as critical for building momentum. His strategy is instead to focus on \"Super Tuesday\", the day—March 3rd—when the greatest number of U.S. states hold primary elections and caucuses, and when more delegates are at stake than on any other day during the primaries.\n\nBloomberg's popularity has surged in recent polls; as of February 7th, he is polling at 11% nationally, according to FiveThirtyEight's [poll aggregator](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/). Pete Buttigieg, who won the most delegates in Iowa and has also seen a slight increase in popularity after this victory, is still only polling at 8%; while Joe Biden, the frontrunner until recently, had a singularly disappointing election, which may be repeated in New Hampshire, and generally appears to be running out of steam.\n\nThese three candidates–Biden, Buttigieg and Bloomberg—may be considered the only moderate Democrats running with a realistic chance of winning the nomination. After Super Tuesday, one of them will likely emerge as the leading alternative to democratic socialist Bernie Sanders. A natural test of whether Bloomberg's strategy has succeeded is whether he comes to occupy this position. So we ask: *Will Michael Bloomberg win more delegates than Biden and Buttigieg on Super Tuesday?*\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThe question resolves positively if Michael Bloomberg obtains more total delegates in the elections held on March 3, 2020 than are won by Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg individually. The question resolves negatively otherwise. Failure by a candidate to run in one or more of these elections will be treated as if the candidate had won no delegates in those elections. The elections scheduled to occur on that day are those in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. Resolution is according to official records.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3607, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1583026608.561249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1583026608.561249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23007611040514295 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.15434298299510482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02933926871708089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.284741854740657, 0.0, 0.5133548583089329, 0.0, 0.1247016370268193, 1.9460961293600514, 1.614919717971406, 0.0, 1.723746997317081, 1.1513537482351863, 1.6292697807445458, 0.0, 0.11879570176331236, 0.0, 0.6240212656985455, 1.7921595475857703, 0.004222618160365907, 0.06827796647176768, 0.9543779711862449, 0.0, 0.006527536320337629, 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Democrat is elected president in 2020?", "created_at": "2020-02-07T18:55:42.170893Z", "open_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-11T21:21:15.653549Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-11T21:21:15.653549Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T16:27:02.475089Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-03T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-03T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\n\n\n---\n\n\n\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)?\n\n\n---\n\n\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it:\n\n1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage.\n\n2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-worth, not their income (with some assets possibly being excluded)\n\n3) Has a rate of at least 0.13% (the lowest rate in Switzerland).\n\n4) Includes (at a mininum) privately held companies and stock in public corporations as a basis for the wealth tax.\n\n---\n\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\n\n\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\n\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3606, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717170147.600909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 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2020?", "created_at": "2020-02-07T18:43:24.465724Z", "open_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-07T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-07T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T16:25:58.039417Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\n\nor\n\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\n\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3605, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736984556.243731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736984556.243731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.013365656079613208 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.35658884127607, 4.037459811877999, 0.6367994335764542, 0.21787962297707386, 0.32677235375853353, 0.1265553993510015, 0.015826660064326363, 0.0007046472362632592, 0.03388060994715046, 0.02349997654797372, 0.10196022355866921, 0.0, 0.14975367990725447, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.009546976498329635, 0.0188634910532351, 0.008950886808790103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005856976366367695, 0.028053053125471673, 0.00042758420728445556, 0.0043283820136688815, 0.0019199860598531195, 0.0, 0.008871060859782641, 0.0003607353116921618, 0.0, 0.024887835299348723, 0.0, 0.00992685232809521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2970582172506222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.5399929762484854e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05262232277738486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031669002721829427 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.76701214104123, "peer_score": 10.947210281654478, "coverage": 0.9998035040305481, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998035040305481, "spot_peer_score": 6.960157556370442, "spot_baseline_score": 56.55971758542251, "baseline_archived_score": 92.76701214104123, "peer_archived_score": 10.947210281654478, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.960157556370442, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 56.55971758542251 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286920.969043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286920.969043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 375, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster." }, { "id": 3600, "title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus before 2029?", "short_title": "Iowa Hosts First Caucus by 2029?", "url_title": "Iowa Hosts First Caucus by 2029?", "slug": "iowa-hosts-first-caucus-by-2029", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-04T23:25:02.662193Z", "published_at": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T21:07:56.424597Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3600, "title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus before 2029?", "created_at": "2020-02-04T23:25:02.662193Z", "open_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-09T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted \"first in the nation\" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.\n\nOn February 3, 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead\" on MSNBC.\n\nWill this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is \"first in the nation\".\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"caucus\" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See [\"walking subcaucus\" voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_subcaucus) for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).\n\nA \"first in the nation primary event\" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the \"first in the nation primary event\".\n\nThe \"US Democratic primary election\" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for [the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3600, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763874999.657907, "end_time": 1764089872.533331, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763874999.657907, "end_time": 1764089872.533331, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.3270561349617355 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4925280170881631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14772949571888752, 0.34946576266536805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5350252150826518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8547812418580905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20005070513194295, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.4159242870145984, 1.4926310956647346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2920067509037526, 0.18119093168767203, 0.0, 1.5815931379553358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16378110850070704, 0.039003561466750214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1702985100789565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11264223351361062, 0.0, 0.07538866801196019, 0.0, 0.13294920078905473, 0.024521526059856833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01414047269109762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1516173937103601, 0.0, 0.0357424518293408, 0.0, 0.11935795955623035, 0.054310922914821785, 0.09641065091749361, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.11589889096395682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05870557476045682 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289529.579522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289529.579522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8746553032252964, 0.1253446967747036 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 298, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted \"first in the nation\" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.\n\nOn February 3, 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead\" on MSNBC.\n\nWill this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?" }, { "id": 3595, "title": "Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?", "short_title": "new COVID hotspot", "url_title": "new COVID hotspot", "slug": "new-covid-hotspot", "author_id": 106142, "author_username": "AABoyles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-03T19:20:20.977040Z", "published_at": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.844315Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-03-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-06T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-04-06T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-31T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 145, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3186, "type": "question_series", "name": "Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2020-02-17T16:40:10.701000Z", "close_date": "2020-06-17T15:40:10.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738753Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-09T15:40:10.738759Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3595, "title": "Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?", "created_at": "2020-02-03T19:20:20.977040Z", "open_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-09T17:50:56.468521Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-09T17:50:56.468521Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-04-06T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-31T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-06T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of 2020-02-03, [the outbreak of COVID-19 is widespread within China](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html), and continuing to grow rapidly, particularly at the outbreak's epicenter, [Hubei province](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubei). That said, Hubei is far from the [most populous](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_administrative_divisions_by_population) or [most densely populated](https://www.unicef.cn/en/figure-13-population-density-province-2017) province in China, let alone the rest of the world. Another larger population could overtake Hubei as the location with the largest infected population.", "resolution_criteria": "**Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?**\n\n* This question resolves positively if, at any time in 2020, a credible information source indicates that the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in any sub-national political unit exceeds that of China's Hubei province.\n* The information sources for this outbreak are still fluid at the time of writing. Some possibilities include the [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c88e37cfc43b4ed3baf977d77e4a0667), the [JHU CSSE 2019-COVID-19 dashboard](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6), and the [relevant WHO Situation Reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports). Other sources may be assessed at the Metaculus' admins judgement.\n* **The location need not necessarily be *Chinese*, or a *province*.** If, for example, a large outbreak is reported in a specific city (other than a city already in Hubei Province, of course), that city may be the location which triggers the positive resolution. (This is merely a guiding example, and not the only specific alternative. Any sub-national political unit may qualify, provided it meets the criterion that it has more confirmed cases of COVID-19 within the timespan of this question.)\n* This question resolves negatively if after midnight (EST) on 2021-01-01, no credible information source has reported a greater number of confirmed infections in any subnational political unit than the number reported in China's Hubei province.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3595, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1585672996.662752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1585672996.662752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9757166822442649 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.022203637060306747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.17972214490031e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0667569021157886e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.308323984396526e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4748699434736828e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012817962046912263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05186016780891953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.009112166684931e-05, 0.0001089789675095372, 6.284332020001618e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4854876632424717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008512038968252549, 0.0, 0.002377767818729952, 0.12562172981119993, 0.0, 0.001955441863720657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038665297153719514, 0.06785552129961861, 0.02953756766234375, 0.9215508288254382, 0.07153827395193929, 0.01817650189891485, 0.1386969297390794, 0.31171117104851365, 0.9808278518816447, 0.08691398072517661, 0.5606040197865614, 18.862306588560084 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 36.9410348165834, "coverage": 0.9021461282600858, "baseline_score": 24.222346320563833, "spot_peer_score": 56.78964696360827, "peer_archived_score": 36.9410348165834, "baseline_archived_score": 24.222346320563833, "spot_peer_archived_score": 56.78964696360827 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1585590121.775486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1585590121.775486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.12497216592783733, 0.8750278340721627 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 414, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of 2020-02-03, [the outbreak of COVID-19 is widespread within China](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html), and continuing to grow rapidly, particularly at the outbreak's epicenter, [Hubei province](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubei). That said, Hubei is far from the [most populous](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_administrative_divisions_by_population) or [most densely populated](https://www.unicef.cn/en/figure-13-population-density-province-2017) province in China, let alone the rest of the world. Another larger population could overtake Hubei as the location with the largest infected population." }, { "id": 3593, "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25% or less to global electricity production in 2030?", "short_title": "Renewables <25% of Global Electricity in 2030", "url_title": "Renewables <25% of Global Electricity in 2030", "slug": "renewables-25-of-global-electricity-in-2030", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-02-02T19:52:09.024975Z", "published_at": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T02:08:32.572230Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-07-26T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-07-27T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3593, "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25% or less to global electricity production in 2030?", "created_at": "2020-02-02T19:52:09.024975Z", "open_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-05T21:23:09.568262Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-05T21:23:09.568262Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-07-27T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-07-26T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-07-26T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\n\n> P4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\n\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\n\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\n\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3593, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763345301.657197, "end_time": 1764382298.307595, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763345301.657197, "end_time": 1764382298.307595, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05358327245024879 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.460252761885666, 6.121096916055691, 1.9125171516880597, 0.4330081313254177, 0.0, 1.3193825102599717, 0.01827030746935017, 0.0, 0.0689923336269963, 0.0004545421011829164, 0.61415278447751, 0.15344578416442092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.005313788500141374, 0.00987023098227902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954458044908652, 0.00406686720801615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014824796017118348, 0.0, 0.006033466371212897, 0.004346983725449503, 0.0, 0.02643125667787829, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028935987500173357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2555168591127752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37291857732980915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290006.722662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290006.722662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9982126205376596, 0.0017873794623404573 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 309, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\n\n> P4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\n\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\n\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production)." }, { "id": 3589, "title": "Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-an-aerospike-finally-fly", "author_id": 106142, "author_username": "AABoyles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-01-31T23:16:58.584565Z", "published_at": "2020-02-04T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.946709Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-04T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-04-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-02T19:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-02T19:39:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-04T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3589, "title": "Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?", "created_at": "2020-01-31T23:16:58.584565Z", "open_time": "2020-02-04T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-05T10:54:10.092717Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-05T10:54:10.092717Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-02T19:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-02T19:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-06-02T19:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-04-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Conventional rocket engines (i.e. with bell nozzles) achieve optimal performance at exactly one pressure. [Aerospike engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerospike_engine), by contrast, exhibit higher efficiencies at a wide range of atmospheric conditions. This makes them ideal for Single-Stage-To-Orbit vehicles. In spite of this promise, no Aerospike engine has ever launched a rocket.\n\nAerospace firm [ARCASpace](http://arcaspace.com/) is looking to change this. They've spent two years developing an Aerospike-based launch platform (which they've documentd in [a quirky youtube series called \"Flight of the Aerospike\"](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnH5kZ13Bb5Z3trx2pY4eWiZGH2gnlRn0)). It appears that ARCA's Aerospike-powered [Launch Assist System (LAS)](https://arcaspace.com/en/LAS.htm) is ready to be tested, with a launch scheduled in April 2020.\n\n**Will ARCA successfully launch an Aerospike-propelled rocket by June 1st, 2020?**\n\n* The launch is scheduled for April, but we'll give them until June in case they need to [scrub](https://www.reddit.com/r/nasa/comments/2u3qm2/where_does_the_term_scrubbed_come_from_when/) for better weather.\n* For the purposes of this question, the launch will be considered a success if ARCA reports that the rocket reached an altitude of at least 1000 meters (including prior to any [rapid unscheduled disassembly](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/rapid_unplanned_disassembly))", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3589, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1585696137.865201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], 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"binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree?\n\nSource: [Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stacey-abrams-thinks-shell-be-president-by-2040/)", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if Stacey Abrams is elected president in or before 2040 and the result is not overturned prior to inauguration, whether or not she is actually inaugurated. This resolves negatively by any other outcome", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3588, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763399552.000204, "end_time": 1764411932.693969, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763399552.000204, "end_time": 1764411932.693969, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.027354576650458193 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.367448650714964, 7.815103568136172, 4.628965305378407, 0.293412871876958, 0.6033576975809285, 0.276762518267035, 0.04241740016701681, 0.13133283757016845, 0.011792323513531065, 0.0, 0.00021598393913296404, 0.0, 0.1686292988773568, 0.0, 0.06987194502301966, 0.0, 0.010843095881615717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15347954871922959, 0.6128611447955633, 0.017647127239622914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010123459334091816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051975036895786614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1184004630088124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288592.177715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288592.177715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988901916653401, 0.0011098083346599511 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 286, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree?\n\nSource: [Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stacey-abrams-thinks-shell-be-president-by-2040/)" }, { "id": 3578, "title": "Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-iran-deploy-no-zafar-communications-satellite-by-2021", "author_id": 100535, "author_username": "bzial", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-01-30T01:16:05.361575Z", "published_at": "2020-02-02T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.949061Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-02-02T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-02-08T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-02-08T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T21:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T21:55:00Z", "open_time": "2020-02-02T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3578, "title": "Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?", "created_at": "2020-01-30T01:16:05.361575Z", "open_time": "2020-02-02T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-03T15:53:15.588196Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-03T15:53:15.588196Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T21:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T21:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-03T21:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-02-08T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-02-08T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In 2019, Iran suffered a trio of failed rocket launches, culminating with an explosion on the launchpad in August. <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2020/01/27/800045774/imagery-suggests-iran-is-preparing-to-try-to-launch-a-satellite\">Recent imagery</a> gathered by commercial satellites may indicate that Iran is preparing for another attempt from the Imam Khomeini Space Center in northern Iran.\n\nIn addition, Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi, the Iranian communications minister, recently <a href=\"https://twitter.com/azarijahromi/status/1221879096592031755\">stated on Twitter</a> that the country is preparing to launch the Zafar-1 and Zafar-2 communications satellites. 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If either of these satellites is successfully deployed, the question resolves negative.\n\n + A satellite is deployed if it is launched into space and successfully separates from its launch vehicle and any payload adapters, and remains in orbit for at least 24 hours thereafter.\n\n + Successful _operation_ of either satellite is irrelevant to negative resolution. i.e., If Iran successfully launches either satellite into orbit, but they fail to perform their intended functions, the question will still resolve negative.\n\n + Resolution will be confirmed by credible international media report and not solely the announcement of the government of Iran.\n\n + This question will be retroactively closed twenty-four hours prior to the first attempted launch of a Zafar satellite.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3578, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1581432251.287243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.4 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Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, 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Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\n\n> Even at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\n\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3531, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763713993.936695, "end_time": 1764943683.76972, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763713993.936695, "end_time": 1764943683.76972, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 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"curation_status_updated_at": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 75, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 369, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3519, "title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?", "created_at": "2020-01-21T02:49:11.013726Z", "open_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-01-25T08:55:35.042000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-01-25T08:55:35.042000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\n\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074.", "resolution_criteria": "**Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?**\n\nSome specifics:\n\n* Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) *do* count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model).\n* Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date *do not* count towards the total.\n* Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date.\n* This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars.\n* Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier).\n* Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3519, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763134458.551991, "end_time": 1778066795.895563, "forecaster_count": 299, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.047 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763134458.551991, "end_time": 1778066795.895563, "forecaster_count": 299, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.047 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0588846770285369 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.397170232848984, 8.190834443858437, 2.615165889854313, 2.437224603621644, 1.4349459784685599, 1.6067572959151344, 0.11030239531618699, 0.31071524113694543, 0.9286728592781439, 0.8417149611101242, 1.0495911329677288, 3.391624462789853e-05, 0.0, 0.028251799611665053, 0.0, 6.2119768906656e-07, 0.9784450445674737, 0.0, 0.009496608190984104, 0.0, 0.11326148062381752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005042380605882816, 0.005469486775904931, 0.5788352109031706, 0.0, 7.306445072887979e-07, 0.003438684040446027, 0.0, 0.1852835070930439, 0.0, 1.5940963079420727e-05, 0.0024243573592549056, 0.0, 0.05460026121277663, 3.023665348846688e-06, 0.00018898959851915964, 1.470677239953073e-05, 0.0, 0.0721694706149682, 0.0, 0.001851764212754826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15004618272341352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031213586240950997, 0.04844359842926982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005288413265125906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058458080803782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08842967121101057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06974722615470377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7260996394279307e-05, 0.0, 0.09778472319478994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051108962666006424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3159933002115151 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290272.733915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 363, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290272.733915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 363, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9915497809154612, 0.008450219084538855 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 40, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 698, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\n\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074." }, { "id": 3516, "title": "Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-outperform-the-the-general-us-stock-market-in-2020", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-01-19T22:22:56.093326Z", "published_at": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.510541Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T00:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T00:34:00Z", "open_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2991, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2020 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2021-03-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.983096Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.670649Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2991, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2020 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2021-03-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.983096Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.670649Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 3516, "title": "Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?", "created_at": "2020-01-19T22:22:56.093326Z", "open_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-01-23T12:01:32.796541Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-01-23T12:01:32.796541Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T00:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T00:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-01T00:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Beyond Meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beyond_Meat) is a Los Angeles-based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products became available across the United States in 2012.\n\nAs of July 2019, Beyond Meat [had a market value of US$11.7 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beyond_Meat#History), following a value of $3.8 billion on the day of its initial public offering, May 2, 2019.\n\nAccording the [Vox's Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions), Beyond meat (and the plant-based market more generally) will likely perform well this year:\n\n> This prediction is really a proxy for, “Plant-based meats will continue to grow, consumer demand for them will remain strong, and the leading companies in the business will end the year in a good position,” and that seems likely to me. The trends that drove plant-based meat’s success in 2019 — consumer interest, concern with sustainability, and new, tastier plant-based options — are still in effect, and Beyond Meat is still enjoying name recognition and the benefits of being the most established purely plant-based company. I expect a good year for them. — KP\n\n\n**Will Beyond Meat outperform the [S&P500 ETF, $SPY,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPDR_S%26P_500_Trust_ETF) in 2020?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if, according to Google Finance [$SPY](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=%24spy&meta=) gained less value (in percentage points) than [$BYND](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=%24BYND&meta=), in the calendar year 2020. Note that we're only concerned in changes in prices here, not total returns (hence dividend payments will not directly count toward performance).\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Beyond Meat goes private, is acquired or otherwise merges with another company.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3516, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609451690.53916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609451690.53916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9808562212771132 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005143843568136428, 0.0, 0.0004510800429042645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019316693155737351, 0.009436282690775694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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Trump has also made [claims of widespread voting fraud in the 2016 election](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fact-checking-trumps-repeated-unsubstantiated-claim-widespread-voter/story?id=45021067). Will he repeat some of these claims in 2020 and use them to avoid conceding the election? (Assuming he doesn't win.)\n\nThis question will not be scored (resolve \"ambiguous\") if within the first thirteen days after the date of the election, there are not at least seven consecutive days where the AP continues to maintain that Trump lost the election.\n\nThis question will resolve \"yes\" if within the first thirteen days after the date of the election, there are at least seven consecutive days where (a) the AP continues to maintain that Trump lost the election and (b) Trump fails to have conceded the election (or stays in a state of having withdrawn a previous concession).\n\nThis question will resolve \"no\" if within the first thirteen days after the date of the election there are at least seven consecutive days where the AP continues to maintain that Trump lost the election but there is not also a seven consecutive day stretch where both (a) the AP continues to maintain that Trump lost the election and (b) Trump fails to have conceded the election (or stays in a state 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\n\n> Venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\n\nHe plans to do that unsing *technology* (ibid.):\n\n> “Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.”\n\n> Once a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug’s value to government groups and payers.\n\n> Combined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market—often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion—by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be “very profitable,” even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\n\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\n\n> Quite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this “a radical proposition.” In any other sector, it would just be called “business.”\n\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\n\n> No, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\n\n> no, you cannot do “on-demand synthesis of all of those”, either.\n\n> I will put up $500 dollars on LongBets.com against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\n\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: **Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?**\n\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. 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very helpful to have both halves of Congress and the Presidency under your party's control. Will the US Democratic Party be able to do this in 2020?\n\nThis resolves yes if the US Democratic Party has (a) at least 218 Representatives, (b) at least 50 Senators, and (c) the US Presidency as of 9 pm California time on the 21st of January 2021. 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However, all of the seats will be up for re-election in 2020. You need 218 to have a majority. 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It didn't happen in 2016 with either Stein or Johnson. Will it happen in 2020?\n\n\"Third-party candidate\" is defined as a candidate that was not nominated by either the US Democratic or US Republican party. 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