Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5540
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His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.\n\nAs of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.\n\nThis question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.\n\nIf the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3460, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735697166.177811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735697166.177811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.8294415432230814 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006693079323327361, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016189445985033076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9976681597685595, 0.0017899242224939788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7194365275800779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.127569558211211e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0054622957666467286, 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0.9998441115493093, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999121968236708, "spot_peer_score": 8.970765835011381, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 77.06964966076706, "peer_archived_score": 14.25590348638412, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.970765835011381, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728292042.299463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728292042.299463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8742217058091903, 0.1257782941908096 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 383, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3458, "title": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?", "short_title": "Impactful Longevity Research by 2030", "url_title": "Impactful Longevity Research by 2030", "slug": "impactful-longevity-research-by-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-01-06T06:11:04.146047Z", "published_at": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T13:02:24.121762Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 284, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3458, "title": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?", "created_at": "2020-01-06T06:11:04.146047Z", "open_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-01-12T23:13:32.811860Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-01-12T23:13:32.811860Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\n\n> I think we are still 15-20 years away \\[from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now \\[...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\n\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research\\* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n\n1. The transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\n2. History.com's summary of events for a year in the 2020's; or (if History.com's summary is deficient or non-existent), the Encyclopedia Britannica [Year in Review](https://www.britannica.com/topic/2024-Year-in-Review).\n3. The English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news); please note, however, that Metaculus will not conduct an exhaustive search of all published versions of that page before resolving the question and will only actively confirm whether the term appeared on a specified date if there is [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting suggesting that it might.\n\nIt also resolves positively if:\n\n1. A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging.\n\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\n\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n\n*ETA: 2022-04-08: qualifying primary or general presidential election debates are limited to mainstream debates (i.e., Republican and Democratic primaries + general election debates).*\n\n<small>\n \\* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n</small>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3458, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763125333.128155, "end_time": 1765441787.394228, "forecaster_count": 236, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763125333.128155, "end_time": 1765441787.394228, "forecaster_count": 236, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5106192161637999 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4332447581326629, 0.006618818641104567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8215679686863975, 0.0, 0.49687678699005494, 0.006003931767529274, 0.0, 0.0, 5.788100402134212e-07, 0.0, 0.00025070748825215385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008013419197451438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015428914185585832, 0.5691319869279851, 0.4655638866865529, 0.00028839227321694874, 0.9469677209380396, 0.26537200415599577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05887566629508942, 0.295195778102302, 0.0, 0.08791200820173925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.883852542174606, 0.05817772275129285, 0.001377717536260604, 0.9486135850490853, 0.08069659345327712, 1.9909619246264358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010935918222372471, 2.3938769699263576, 0.0, 1.6645135403310438e-05, 0.3643678293700482, 0.9683725298800282, 3.1504434838252893, 0.008401993738463034, 0.7848510155650011, 0.9066906348045053, 0.0, 1.0238695468028398, 0.26114885149701506, 0.8931313811419419, 0.0, 0.707830683238023, 1.1637981752848257, 0.10965020732096181, 0.5197407529520162, 0.2721928666725004, 0.13691926828078557, 1.4883739022203142, 0.16959209073998877, 0.08292064081006492, 0.03187554403373334, 0.10977251963588565, 1.0536434285877079, 0.0014594354069388234, 0.033239021307783764, 0.06632549902418904, 0.0005596026264594088, 1.1465599735271175, 0.056610752362793816, 9.270573397042749e-05, 0.5231527347377218, 0.0001744124671246601, 0.2519456040155673, 1.097118623712076e-05, 7.254238103528131e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15393814826820698, 0.3913580920517937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31060347890922546, 0.0, 8.758439217838034e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0042416770421697565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021733116419319273, 1.257050685037977 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287349.553347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 269, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287349.553347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 269, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5662578302135064, 0.4337421697864936 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 56, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 683, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\n\n> I think we are still 15-20 years away \\[from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now \\[...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\n\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's." }, { "id": 3451, "title": "US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "us-invades-and-attempts-a-regime-change-in-iran-in-2020", "author_id": 106736, "author_username": "nagolinc", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2020-01-04T09:17:29.334577Z", "published_at": "2020-01-08T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.467986Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-01-08T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T00:11:00Z", "open_time": "2020-01-08T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 190, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2991, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2020 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2021-03-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.983096Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.670649Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2991, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2020 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2021-03-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.983096Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.670649Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3451, "title": "US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?", "created_at": "2020-01-04T09:17:29.334577Z", "open_time": "2020-01-08T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-01-09T16:17:27.753076Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-01-09T16:17:27.753076Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T00:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-01T00:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Under president Trump, the US goverment has adopted a policy of [maximum presure](https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/476819-pompeo-says-administrations-maximum-pressure-strategy-on-iran-is) towards the government of Iran, in an effort to curb its nuclear ambitions and proxy warfare. The US has, however, stopped short of calling for regime change in Iran and has thus far avoided striking targets inside of Iran. Experts have warned, however, that the killing of QUDS leader [Qassem Soleimani](https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/06/politics/donald-trump-iran-iraq-impeachment/index.html) could lead to a pattern of mutual escalation and ultimately all-out war.\n\nWill the US armed forces launch an invasion of Iran with the intention of overthrowing the [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran) in 2020?\n\nQuestion resolves **positively** if both:\n\n 1. US air AND ground forces strike targets while inside the land border of Iran. The ground forces alone have to be in excess of 2000 troops. USSOCOM-led forces do not count.\n\n 2. And while US troops are on Iranian soil, either:\n\n a. The US government issues an official statement* calling for Ali Khamenei to resign/surrender or otherwise abdicate his position as Supreme Leader of Iran \n\n b. Or subsequent to a US invasion of Iran, Khamenei ceases to hold the title of Supreme Leader for any reason (death, resignation, etc)\n\n c. Or the US recognizes a government other than that headed by Supreme Leader Khamenei as the legal government of Iran\n\nCredible media reports that these have happened are sufficient for resolution.\n\nQuestion resolves **negatively** if on January 1, 2021 Khamenei remains Supreme Leader of Iran and the US either failed to invade Iran (1) or not attempted regime change (2)\n\nQuestion resolves **ambiguously** if:\nKhamenei ceases to be Supreme Leader of Iran prior to a US invasion for any reason.\n\n*An official statement includes any statement by a member of the executive branch that could be reasonably construed to describe the offical policy of the US goverment. Or, a bill passed by the US congress. In the case where there is ambiguity about whether a statement represents the official policy of the US government (e.g. Trump tweet), it does not count if it is retracted or substantially amended within 48 hours.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3451, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609459841.961878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609459841.961878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01588825384352776 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 23.306531923486443, 1.4448923092391897, 0.12682726008892714, 0.0015990026642013738, 0.2989675540420071, 0.0, 0.4251654357601937, 0.006306017990100249, 9.034157469838967e-05, 0.11240589562495831, 0.0, 1.1952632519764843e-05, 6.372439341923907e-05, 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"resolution_criteria": "Over the years, [North Korea has conducted a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures\n\nAs of 30 November 2017, North Korea had carried out 117 tests of strategic missiles since its first such test in 1984. 15 were carried out under the rule of Kim Il-sung and 16 under Kim Jong-il. Under Kim Jong-un, more than 80 tests have been undertaken.\n\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\n\nThis question asks: **Will North Korea launch, for any reason, an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?**\n\nThis question will resolve as positive when a guided missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government or United Nations or by confirmation of any any permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\n\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3446, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606780080.085994, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1606780080.085994, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10090591558185398 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.9044606089468203, 0.2223152373398331, 0.7745583779871341, 1.1008140074293093, 2.1332176494540036, 1.9538095406752904, 2.5158996160511164, 1.758168529742954, 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Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\n\nThis question asks: **Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?**\n\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3445, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638315162.179367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 453, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638315162.179367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 453, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9776166190961821 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 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Index](https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500) (Ticker SPX) is large-cap U.S. equities price index that covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization. It covers 500 large public companies listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.\n\nS&P 500 closed 3,230.78 Dec. 31, 2019. \n\nResolves positively in the event that value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 3,230.78 points, and resolves negatively if the index value is equal to or lower than 3,230.78 points in the last day close of 2020.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3444, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1580434171.102072, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1580434171.102072, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5829588407924594 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.013550076875576434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16339672933623672, 0.0, 0.0, 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For this upcoming election, the DNC will be held at The Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin between July 13 to July 16, 2020 ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention)).\n\nAt this convention, a vote among 3,979 pledged delegates is held during the first round ([The Green Papers](https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D)) and the candidate with 1,990 delegates will be chosen as the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election. If a candidate is not selected after the first round of voting, additional rounds of voting take place, with the inclusion of superdelegates.\n\n\nThis question will close the day after the Super Tuesday primaries are held: March 4, 2020 at 11:59 PM ET\n\nThis question will resolve one week after the DNC concludes: July 23, 2020 at 11:59 PM ET\n\nThis question resolves positively if any candidate receives 1,990 delegates during the first round of voting at the DNC.\n\nThis question resolves negatively if no one candidate receives 1,990 delegates in the first round of voting at the DNC.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3440, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1583373860.706995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1583373860.706995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], 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"user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3439, "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", "created_at": "2019-12-28T08:18:54.538391Z", "open_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-01-01T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-01-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T07:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T07:05:15.336917Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\n\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\n\nThis question asks: **Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\n\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3439, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055898.475537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055898.475537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1348194143473672 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.5930863262925192, 1.3915531905459935, 0.4936445641242996, 1.5807601603056165, 2.8934560544310313, 0.18699237656372109, 2.3277881612084648, 2.465437445927405, 1.8473346706715132, 4.115951922009158, 1.0353861587164783, 1.1637664770172254, 0.8559851049720777, 0.43520909890379555, 1.2321616601379617, 0.5935624260713229, 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"question": { "id": 3528, "title": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2019-12-26T19:31:48.012364Z", "open_time": "2020-01-29T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-01-31T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-01-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T01:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T01:29:34.889669Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf) Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf) Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\n\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n\n- Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good\n- Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making\n- Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed\n- Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts\n- Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed\n\nAs of September 2019, two geoengineering bills and one resolution have been introduced in Congress. These bills are the following:\n\n1. [Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4586?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=3&r=1). This bill recommends \na research agenda for advancing understanding of [albedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo) modification strategies that involve atmospheric interventions, such as cloud modification; and a report that provides specific guidance on the governance mechanisms for the proposed research agenda.\n\n2. [American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009](https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/senate-bill/1462?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=2&r=2). This bill requires the Secretary of Energy to establish an Advisory Committee on Geosciences and Geoengineering Education to advise the Secretary in education and training in the subsurface geosciences and engineering.\n\nNeither the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017 nor the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 became legislation. So far, the U.S. has not enacted legislation that are explicitly related to geoengineering. \n\n**Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?**\n\nThis questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:\n\n> \"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3528, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717168544.794343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.045 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717168544.794343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.045 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04620696241404927 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.590445119223421, 1.8830179607601032, 0.16807692099984373, 0.29591885022969616, 1.2811197368629035, 0.18722490586019797, 0.14051867798119894, 0.16853735428711497, 0.0, 0.26682102431500065, 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part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", "short_title": "Ocean fertilised with >=50t of iron by 2024?", "url_title": "Ocean fertilised with >=50t of iron by 2024?", "slug": "ocean-fertilised-with-50t-of-iron-by-2024", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-12-24T13:46:02.302287Z", "published_at": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.947518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", 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"group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\n\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031) All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\n\n\n**Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?**\n\n\n----\n\nThis question resolves positive if a single geoengineering effort to fertilise an ocean with the intention of stimulating biomass growth successfully introduces 50 tonnes of iron into an ocean by the end of 2023. \n\nThe fertiliser must contain the equivalent of 50 tonnes of iron, which contains [895335 moles of iron](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). Hence, fertilisers that contain compounds of iron must also contain at least 895335 moles of iron. For example, [136 tonnes of iron sulfate (FeSO4)](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron+Sulfate/to/grams) contains roughly 895335 moles of iron. In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\n\nA single geoengineering effort is here defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of various organisations (e.g. national government, research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3433, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672525527.185933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07083120253513267 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672525527.185933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07083120253513267 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], 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"2023-07-15T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \n\nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\n\n\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \n\n**Will Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?**\n\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before July 15 2023 at 12:00 AM GMT, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \n\nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\n\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\n\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3431, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689372453.414766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 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"author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-12-21T13:18:49.425000Z", "published_at": "2019-12-23T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.104527Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-12-23T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T02:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T02:12:00Z", "open_time": "2019-12-23T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 141, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3429, "title": "Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?", "created_at": "2019-12-21T13:18:49.425000Z", "open_time": "2019-12-23T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-12-25T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-12-25T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T02:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T02:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T02:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf) Solar radiation management (SRM) supposes that deliberate addition of aerosol to the stratosphere could reduce climate risks by partially offsetting the radiative forcing from accumulating greenhouse gases. The deployment stratospheric sulfate aerosols have been proposed as a method to reflect more energy away from the planet, by increasing the planetary albedo, and thereby cool the planet, ameliorating some of the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\n\nAccording to [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131) sulphate aerosols have at least two cooling effects:\n\n> In the stratosphere they act to reflect incoming solar energy (the ‘aerosol direct effect’), but also act as [cloud condensation nuclei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei), influencing the size of cloud droplets and the persistence or lifetime of clouds (the ‘aerosol indirect effect’) and thus the reflectivity of clouds.\n\nUsing the [Mount Pinatubo eruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo) as an analogue, [Crutzen, 2006](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-006-9101-y) estimated a constant inflow of 5 teragrams (Tg) of Sulphur per year would be sufficient to balance the warming associated with a doubling of CO2. [Rasch et al., 2008](http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1029/2007GL032179) suggested that 1.5 Tg S per year might suffice to balance the GHG warming. Finally, [Robock et al., 2008](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008JD010050) arrived at a figure of between 1.5 and 5 Tg S per year. \n\nFor reference, the net inflow of sulphur to the stratosphere is believed to be of the order of 100 gigagrams of per year when no volcanic eruptions occur [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** If it is credibly reported that 100 gigagrams (i.e. 100,000,000,000 grams) of sulphur is intentionally injected into the atmosphere in a single year as part of a single geoengineering effort, before January 1, 2024. For the injection to qualify as a geoengineering effort, reporting must strong reveal evidence that that the parties responsible for the effort have the intent to bring about long-term effects on the regional or global climate.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, sulfur emissions are specified according to the equivalent weight of sulphur. For the purpose of this question we'll use the conversion of sulfur emissions and burdens found in [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131) 100 Gg S = 300 Gg of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) = 300 Gg of Sulfate (SO₄2) = 400 Gg aerosol particles (Gg = gigagram).\n\nMoreover, a single geoengineering effort is defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3429, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703968058.321337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703968058.321337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.014715687800840416 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.604097401662202, 7.702635128559897, 0.3830280365094619, 0.06060853366379759, 0.04306136281738142, 0.6833765212310677, 0.0033430821205433746, 0.009924089967599407, 0.004907927310101494, 0.000544608623388499, 0.006179353019915018, 0.0, 3.93784722937276e-05, 0.0, 8.069351508216675e-05, 0.00048583563735360257, 0.001994248806695997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.013526741249092e-05, 0.0, 0.3114553025348534, 0.41713636884369504, 0.0, 0.00671786697369952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011787156455005717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012387996325486188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.840797654863505, "coverage": 0.999935231600901, "baseline_score": 93.93609849840297, "spot_peer_score": 8.977764459452821, "peer_archived_score": 5.840797654863505, "baseline_archived_score": 93.93609849840297, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.977764459452821 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008100.575398, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008100.575398, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 297, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf) Solar radiation management (SRM) supposes that deliberate addition of aerosol to the stratosphere could reduce climate risks by partially offsetting the radiative forcing from accumulating greenhouse gases. The deployment stratospheric sulfate aerosols have been proposed as a method to reflect more energy away from the planet, by increasing the planetary albedo, and thereby cool the planet, ameliorating some of the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\n\nAccording to [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131) sulphate aerosols have at least two cooling effects:\n\n> In the stratosphere they act to reflect incoming solar energy (the ‘aerosol direct effect’), but also act as [cloud condensation nuclei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei), influencing the size of cloud droplets and the persistence or lifetime of clouds (the ‘aerosol indirect effect’) and thus the reflectivity of clouds.\n\nUsing the [Mount Pinatubo eruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo) as an analogue, [Crutzen, 2006](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-006-9101-y) estimated a constant inflow of 5 teragrams (Tg) of Sulphur per year would be sufficient to balance the warming associated with a doubling of CO2. [Rasch et al., 2008](http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1029/2007GL032179) suggested that 1.5 Tg S per year might suffice to balance the GHG warming. Finally, [Robock et al., 2008](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008JD010050) arrived at a figure of between 1.5 and 5 Tg S per year. \n\nFor reference, the net inflow of sulphur to the stratosphere is believed to be of the order of 100 gigagrams of per year when no volcanic eruptions occur [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131)" }, { "id": 3419, "title": "Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?", "short_title": "Joe Biden Impeached by House?", "url_title": "Joe Biden Impeached by House?", "slug": "joe-biden-impeached-by-house", "author_id": 100559, "author_username": "DanielFilan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-12-19T07:10:59.571104Z", "published_at": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.823555Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 109, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 437, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3419, "title": "Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?", "created_at": "2019-12-19T07:10:59.571104Z", "open_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-12-23T02:57:40.905024Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-12-23T02:57:40.905024Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-26T01:46:10.913157Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-first-term/)\n* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)\n\n----\n\nSo far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\n\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US House of Representatives votes to impeach the next President of the United States (meaning the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office). This question will resolve as **No** if the next US president leaves office without being impeached", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3419, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737769903.652249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 437, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737769903.652249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 437, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.012055677223623345 ], "histogram": [ [ 26.615057986801293, 8.392294551668975, 2.208504719216248, 0.3281600731266213, 0.5685848458100095, 0.35132513982169644, 0.4226566471188568, 0.3708390561737489, 0.11024220994337719, 0.11580580175352771, 0.1461263196750807, 0.00018592518933949887, 0.04121325665494098, 0.027639910026600354, 0.014658843028770562, 0.010789672692457043, 0.040915154018862365, 0.009247513844671717, 0.018732456394735624, 0.0008316731304343487, 0.2022890149745799, 0.013521029340824066, 0.011077473245967903, 0.0011548995743166214, 0.000160210833660546, 0.08749061908691073, 0.008622188100626595, 0.04800249071586407, 0.0008582794645590467, 0.0, 0.009720934060386904, 0.0, 0.0017566877877084048, 0.044075110219297074, 0.000523918467988697, 0.032869132638235286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004232362357816122, 0.0015842323325906164, 0.0, 0.00018968287071888113, 0.0005391823135913028, 0.0, 0.0012088097988666967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010515821891712428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001817986987141447, 0.0, 0.0009679744006973917, 2.029694812263901e-05, 0.0007516530128640094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024230838386092523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023062141703780693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008659913551500253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011501749530427644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00048176900624320154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022109315424697084 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.67904170536, "peer_score": 2.2842527319274586, "coverage": 0.5595470080892012, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999256188779087, "spot_peer_score": 4.031525861789551, "spot_baseline_score": 78.24085649273731, "baseline_archived_score": 43.67904170536, "peer_archived_score": 2.2842527319274586, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.031525861789551, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.24085649273731 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288873.024178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 435, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288873.024178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 435, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9981462292260028, 0.0018537707739971494 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 28, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1600, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-first-term/)\n* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)\n\n----\n\nSo far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\n\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached." }, { "id": 3416, "title": "Will Alexei Navalny ever become president or prime minister of Russia?", "short_title": "Alexei Navalny Presidency of Russia", "url_title": "Alexei Navalny Presidency of Russia", "slug": "alexei-navalny-presidency-of-russia", "author_id": 106736, "author_username": "nagolinc", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-12-14T16:40:02.654498Z", "published_at": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.220250Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 147, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-16T15:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:13:00Z", "open_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 464, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T23:07:50.972800Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T23:07:50.972800Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 3416, "title": "Will Alexei Navalny ever become president or prime minister of Russia?", "created_at": "2019-12-14T16:40:02.654498Z", "open_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-12-20T14:16:01.725340Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-12-20T14:16:01.725340Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-16T15:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-16T15:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\n\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Alexei Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia. If Navalny has legally died before this occurs, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. If Navalny is still alive on January 1, 2500 but has not assumed either office, this question will also resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "fine_print": "In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n\nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nNote that if Navalny is *elected* president but dies before assuming office, this question will resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 3416, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708099669.449056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 465, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708099669.449056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 465, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03294824677327308 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.526680836304022, 12.721536714282744, 5.226257781295628, 2.7124531155134752, 1.5286930200296172, 0.6819468821778942, 1.1978724395406952, 0.2707621698356347, 0.37238288292386407, 0.09010177612317145, 0.2405335527096429, 0.026607952000593894, 0.00015317729690966659, 0.00016724941316173717, 6.080935170957841e-09, 0.08054313588512538, 0.00011397624353900687, 0.26181680517116523, 7.022131554021713e-05, 0.019669883598826297, 0.02117454015968525, 0.28896282858759237, 0.009733537137728128, 0.00010162243088683002, 0.011380531322653254, 0.059289869043138856, 0.07730988565427759, 0.0, 6.090607027130629e-07, 0.0, 6.861190463781148e-05, 3.107302785381278e-05, 7.173799891924106e-07, 2.438682639514874e-09, 0.0, 1.1893975060325217e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 8.665998793527103e-09, 1.3784004135348282e-08, 0.09332612521188921, 0.00011929697723329714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18006715549847255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257304803782532, 0.19417415669978255, 0.0, 2.8280949389604845e-05, 0.0, 0.023298534017751164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5480633173143617e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.158476568899837e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001635116895959982, 0.0, 1.8556817902704956e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05377322770477383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03253296143392633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.377309722759581e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.7611453729095254, "coverage": 0.07299132719308678, "baseline_score": 6.748275285884398, "spot_peer_score": 6.250146226081772, "peer_archived_score": 0.7611453729095254, "baseline_archived_score": 6.748275285884398, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.250146226081772 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706859495.423224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 461, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706859495.423224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 461, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9934520943717092, 0.006547905628290813 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 42, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1191, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\n\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia." }, { "id": 3410, "title": "Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 PPM over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?", "short_title": "Average Global CO2, 2024 to 2027 < 423.89 PPM", "url_title": "Average Global CO2, 2024 to 2027 < 423.89 PPM", "slug": "average-global-co2-2024-to-2027-42389-ppm", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-12-13T18:26:36.348338Z", "published_at": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T01:04:21.187887Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3410, "title": "Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 PPM over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?", "created_at": "2019-12-13T18:26:36.348338Z", "open_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\n\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\n\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\n\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z) Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).", "resolution_criteria": "---\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\n\n**Data**\n\n- [Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n\n- [Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3410, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763702265.208366, "end_time": 1764522314.84832, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763702265.208366, "end_time": 1764522314.84832, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.1871159089239486 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5012619705191098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4196396388222614, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.2003697945016017, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.4137294612403971, 0.02591031830222411, 0.6456508813890884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.805982341413641, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.37665269342317054, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289770.795724, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289770.795724, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9344469706852905, 0.0655530293147095 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 186, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\n\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\n\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\n\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z) Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.)." }, { "id": 3409, "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?", "short_title": "Global CO2 under 414.52 ppm from 2020 - 2023", "url_title": "Global CO2 under 414.52 ppm from 2020 - 2023", "slug": "global-co2-under-41452-ppm-from-2020-2023", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-12-13T18:25:51.410318Z", "published_at": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.802671Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T02:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T02:53:00Z", "open_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3409, "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?", "created_at": "2019-12-13T18:25:51.410318Z", "open_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T02:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T02:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T02:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\n\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\n\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPCC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\n\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z) Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\n\n**Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive)?**\n\n---\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 414.52 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\n\n**Data**\n\n- [Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n\n- [Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3409, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703964579.017216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703964579.017216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0341538385004576 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.766930794889875, 7.214123168583359, 0.7469369303512297, 0.6266108599926832, 0.4517155061546667, 0.7488705603357004, 0.8123874844162877, 0.0, 0.018262940134134986, 0.0023123562816131224, 0.1769208511709911, 0.05834965794046863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011172110363428878, 0.010575480510703719, 0.0, 0.00359802936012828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024876478129317717, 0.4518553852219651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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2019-12-03, North Korea's Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs issued a statement through the Korean Central News Agency. The statement concluded:\n\n> What is left to be done now is the U.S. option and it is entirely up to the U.S. what Christmas gift it will select to get\n\nThis is hardly the first time the North Korean government has employed this type of threatening metaphor. For example, [the AP notes that](https://apnews.com/3ffc14ac9bf54ae382c2d885e2e54e52):\n\n> After the North tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile in July 2017, Kim called the missile a “package of gifts” to the Americans for their Fourth of July holiday.\n\nThere are a variety of possible gifts the North Koreans could have in mind, including [A nuclear weapon test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea), [A ballistic missile test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests), [An attack on a military target](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking), or [An attack on a civilian target](https://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2010/nov/23/north-korea-fires-south-korea)...\n\n...or maybe nothing at all! KCNA is full of hyperbolic, aggressive propaganda. North Korea is not the most reliable gift-giver. This could very well be just another bluff. Accordingly, I ask:\n\n**Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas gift?**\n\nThis question resolves negatively if North Korea does (or attempts) any of the following:\n\n* Launching an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile test.\n* Testing a nuclear weapon.\n* Committing an act of war in which at least one person is injured.\n* Any inflammatory acts judged by Metaculus Admins to be commensurate to those listed above.\n\nThis question resolves positively if by New Year's day (on-time gifting is hard!), North Korea has not committed any of the above.\n\nOne exception: any injury-causing acts of war precipitated by [defection attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_defectors_in_South_Korea) will *not* satisfy a negative resolution, because while defections are a common flash-point in the conflict, that's definitely not the \"gift\".", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3401, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577852434.780179, 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false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3398, "title": "Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?", "created_at": "2019-12-04T10:23:22.578577Z", "open_time": "2019-12-11T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-12-13T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-12-13T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-08T12:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-08T12:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-08T12:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-08T11:12:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-08T11:12:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In Janurary 2016 Physical Review Letters [published](http://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.042501) a paper by a Hungarian research group reporting anomalous results in the decays of excited beryllium-8 atoms. A careful analysis posted in an [April 2016 paper](http://arxiv.org/abs/1604.07411) suggests that this anomaly is consistent with the existence of a hitherto unknown light (17 MeV) vector boson.\n\nSince then, interest in this potential new physics has grown, though it is tempered by concern about the experimental group and its previous work; see [this story](https://www.quantamagazine.org/20160607-new-boson-claim-faces-scrutiny/) for a nice summary.\n\nAs discussed in [this story](http://www.nature.com/news/has-a-hungarian-physics-lab-found-a-fifth-force-of-nature-1.19957), several ongoing or proposed experiments may be able to independently test the possibility of a new vector boson in this mass range in the next year or two, and it is possible that another team could independently reproduce the original nuclear physics experiment.\n\nA previous [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/252/new-boson/) by our glorious leader [Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) resolved on Jan 9, 2018 with no new evidence on the matter. Theoretical work has continued on the subject since (see [google scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo=2018&cites=17391295264019262192)) and in October 2019, the original Hungarian group uploaded [a new paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1910.10459.pdf) to the arxiv where they report observing similar anomalous decays of excited \\(^4\\)He atoms.\n\nQuestion: **By beginning of 2021, will *no* independent group publish or post to the arxiv a paper adducing additional experimental evidence for a new vector boson in the mass range of 10-50 MeV?**\n\nBy independent, we mean that the paper will not share authors with either the PRL experimental paper or the Feng et al. theoretical paper; by \"adduce experimental evidence\" we will include both new experiments providing evidence at > 3-sigma or equivalent, or a new theoretical analysis of data other than that of the Hungarian group providing at least 4-sigma or equivalent evidence.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3398, "aggregations": 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"question": { "id": 3397, "title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?", "created_at": "2019-12-04T02:17:25.334955Z", "open_time": "2019-12-13T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-12-14T12:57:52.606649Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-12-14T12:57:52.606649Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. \n\nA nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates).\n\nThis question asks: **Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?**\n\nResolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030.\n\nThis question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%).\n\nIn the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution.\n\n[fine-print]\n\nIf one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive.\n\nChangelog:\n\n + 2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924).\n\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3397, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763290270.861327, "end_time": 1765813775.656689, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23051081164074483 ], "centers": [ 0.311 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763290270.861327, "end_time": 1765813775.656689, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23051081164074483 ], "centers": [ 0.311 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6890000000000001, 0.311 ], "means": [ 0.335583678385694 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.47295204745398656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2193311571613461, 0.07049165811994734, 0.3013539963258097, 0.03428508543739602, 0.04331287452455614, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1505449697225107, 0.014128607803813408, 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"published_at": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T18:38:42.139927Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3393, "title": "Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?", "created_at": "2019-11-30T20:35:46.781268Z", "open_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-12-05T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-12-05T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*To facilitate discussion, in what follows the names 'Jeanne Calment' and 'Yvonne Calment' refer to the women born in 1875 and 1898, respectively, regardless of when these women died; and the name 'Mme Calment' refers to the woman who died in 1997, regardless of when she was born.*\n\nJeanne Calment (born 21 February 1875) was, until recently, widely considered to have died on 4 August 1997 and to be, as such, the oldest verified person in history, reaching the remarkable age of 122 years and 164 days. In 2018, Russian mathematician Nikolay Zak—prompted by Valery Novoselov, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatrics at RUDN University in Moscow—uploaded a paper to ResearchGate, subsequently [published](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2018.2167) in the journal _Rejuvenation Research_, challenging this view. Zak argued that the person who died in 1997 was Jeanne Calment's daughter, Yvonne Calment (born 29 January 1898), who upon Jeanne's death in 1934 assumed her official identity for tax evasion purposes.\n\nVersions of this “identity switch hypothesis” had been advanced in the past (including by [fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/#comment-2084)) but it was only with the publication of Zak’s paper and its popularization and further development by life-extension activist Yuri Deigin in [a series of blog posts](http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148.s001) that the thesis attracted widespread attention and discussion. The main facts adduced in support of this hypothesis are, to quote from Gwern's useful [summary](https://www.gwern.net/Questions#jeanne-calment), \"the suspiciousness of the Calment family archives being destroyed by them, some anomalies in Calment’s passport, oddities in family arrangements, apparent inconsistency of Calment’s recollections & timing of events & photos, facial landmarks like ear features not seeming to match up between young/old photos, and an obscure 2007 accusation in a French book that a French bureaucrat and/or the insurance company had uncovered the fraud but the French state quietly suppressed the findings because of Calment’s national fame.\"\n\nThe response of the professional community of demographers has been generally skeptical. Jean-Marie Robine, a respected scholar who co-validated Calment's longevity record, was [particularly critical](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/how-madame-calment-worlds-oldest-person-became-fuel-russian-conspiracy-theory/): \"You can talk with any scholar, who would say, we would not accept this even from a student. It’s not scientific, there’s no methodology, no hypothesis, no nothing.\" His colleague and co-author Michel Allard also criticized the study, though he [noted](https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1OX14T) that \"even if far-fetched, the Russians’ conclusions should be given consideration.\" After a \"rather tense\" meeting of the National Institute for Demographic Studies in early 2019, longevity experts from France, Swiss and Belgium concluded that an exhumation may be needed to settle the controversy.\n\nMore recently, it has been discovered that blood samples taken from Mme Calment have been preserved by the [Fondation Jean Dausset-CEPH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fondation_Jean_Dausset-CEPH) in Paris. Furthermore, [researcher Phil Gibbs](https://the110club.com/did-jeanne-calment-really-reach-122-t3663-s315.html#p40063394) and [gerontologist Aubrey De Grey](https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/DNA-blood-test-could-reveal-if-Jeanne-Calment-was-really-122) independently noted that, because of inbreeding, Yvonne Calment had only 12 great-great-grandparents, whereas Jeanne Calment had the usual 16. Thus, the true identity of Mme Calment could be straightforwardly established by conducting a single DNA test on a blood sample already in possession of a laboratory.\n\nIn light of this, we now ask: **Conditional on relevant DNA tests being carried out, will it be shown that Mme Calment was Jeanne Calment?**\n\n##Resolution\n\nThe question will resolve before the official resolution date (January 1, 2030) if and when the results of a DNA test of Mme Calment, following either an exhumation of her body or an analysis of a preserved blood sample, are officially announced. The resolution will then be determined as follows:\n\n1. If the DNA of the exhumed body or the blood sample is shown to be that of someone with 12 great-great-grandparents, the question resolves negative; if it is shown the be that of someone with 16 great-great-grandparents, it resolves positive; otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.\n\n2. If the official body of Yvonne Calment is also exhumed and tested, the question resolves negative if DNA testing shows Mme Calment to be Yvonne Calment, and positive otherwise.\n\n3. In the unlikely event that both of the criteria above become relevant and yield inconsistent resolutions, the question will resolve according to criterion (2).\n\nIn all these cases, the question will retroactively close one week before the test results are officially announced.\n\nIf the question doesn't resolve before the official resolution date, it will resolve ambiguous.\n\n## Further reading\nIn addition to the writings listed above, readers may want to consult the following papers:\n\n* Zak & Gibbs, [A Bayesian Assessment of the Longevity of Jeanne Calment](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2019.2227) (in favor of the ID switch hypothesis).\n\n* Robine, Allard, Herrmann & Jeune, [The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest\nEver Human](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glz198) (against the ID switch hypothesis).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3393, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762597472.950914, "end_time": 1764723284.623776, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.308 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762597472.950914, "end_time": 1764723284.623776, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.308 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.43036784744865614 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7250650913037493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9425827161078613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02018721735106872, 0.0, 0.23621291881783552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191702, 0.1246610110958938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3905506836953874, 0.10642834088513557, 0.0, 0.008707034755549023, 0.0, 0.13424188158871642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004054774493196628, 0.0, 0.9044092058344267, 0.0, 0.1201194985155576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06886879714053346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012750615313996135, 0.0, 0.7254780049525091, 0.4354804280893204, 0.3676689736037081, 0.07166172068551879, 2.2291125311047293, 0.5472788027128402, 0.03383492044223947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3675709616508922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5399864305927426, 0.5091402814541253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.696809674327731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005692210692547144, 0.0087661678672247, 0.0, 0.0019319732351326508, 0.033759642339669965, 0.8518836234820046, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2356152998817445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439089 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287594.633874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287594.633874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.48595347309466574, 0.5140465269053343 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 246, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
