Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5560
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5580", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5540", "results": [ { "id": 3385, "title": "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?", "short_title": "At Least 1 Human In Space Through 2050", "url_title": "At Least 1 Human In Space Through 2050", "slug": "at-least-1-human-in-space-through-2050", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-11-29T19:43:23.701642Z", "published_at": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.327760Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-07-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 213, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3385, "title": "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?", "created_at": "2019-11-29T19:43:23.701642Z", "open_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-12-05T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-12-05T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-07-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-07-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years.\n\nThis question asks: **Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?**\n\nFor a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). \n\nIf the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s, artificial intelligence systems, humans in suspended animation or cryopreservation, and all other instances of either wholly non-biological or non-conscious humans will not count for the purposes of this question. Humans who are merely sleeping will be considered conscious for the purposes of this question.\n\nHowever, biological humans with some degree of cybernetic augmentation ([brain implants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_implant), artificial limbs or organs, etc) will suffice, so long as they could still reproduce with un-augmented humans.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3385, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763045951.49944, "end_time": 1767547327.270336, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763045951.49944, "end_time": 1767547327.270336, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7531037056401724 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009447215209881793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013351516707628568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016419476009337112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002301237473747129, 0.0, 0.1760494117272235, 4.785707395806231e-05, 0.0, 7.779946390035713e-05, 0.0, 0.926572702866439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7202215154666236, 0.0021568009145473224, 0.0001797178317602369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7192563860313598, 0.0002606034647048001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0316614516195671, 0.0473615127778692, 0.0, 0.03322152033858078, 0.0003390635292445793, 0.14474380723896874, 0.8049036598936781, 0.0012922381349275472, 0.0, 0.002176281403811293, 0.6190307068875045, 0.41593944558170226, 0.10638859347178865, 0.028620250234586562, 0.2008570301151454, 0.357128410406258, 0.9275185127371219, 0.8300313411361986, 0.002189517193456567, 0.15877809268193532, 0.6734021755729848, 0.46163925161891417, 0.005098649944966468, 0.680738042329558, 0.1846877496346546, 0.9742077334193389, 0.0, 0.021921772431164863, 1.2447497942800883, 0.0, 3.9278925858854654, 0.45754952412115807, 0.2540156887766935, 0.7856282716932148, 0.0, 4.316298095387453, 0.030956667013044812, 0.006081663162155488, 0.23529056708983181, 0.0, 1.866752225105655, 0.005418427178876098, 0.3609934848236892, 0.0, 0.002020314967495334, 1.0330080144246272, 0.8967611218194579, 0.019825624239357565, 0.0, 0.4366029072879237 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288136.913226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 208, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288136.913226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 208, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3073839683400388, 0.6926160316599612 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 488, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3374, "title": "Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-either-the-usa-or-china-improve-on-their-score-on-an-the-animal-protection-index-indicator-for-recognition-of-animal-sentience-by-the-end-2022", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-11-25T20:21:01.965666Z", "published_at": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.178665Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-03-08T20:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-08T20:16:00Z", "open_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3374, "title": "Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?", "created_at": "2019-11-25T20:21:01.965666Z", "open_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-11-30T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-11-30T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-08T20:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-08T20:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-08T20:16:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Recent work in neuroscience](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/christof-koch/consciousness-is-everywhere_b_1784047.html) suggests that consciousness may not depend on a highly developed cortex, or on any particular brain structure. In 2012, an international group of neuroscientists released \"[The Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness](http://fcmconference.org/img/CambridgeDeclarationOnConsciousness.pdf),\" arguing that nonhuman animals (including all mammals, birds, octopuses, and some others) possess the neurological substrates that generate consciousness, and that consciousness and intentionality are not uniquely human attributes.\n\nIn the US, there is some federal legislation recognising some aspects of animal sentience in some animals. In particular, the preamble to the Humane Methods of Slaughter Act of 1958 explains that the use of humane methods in the slaughter of livestock prevents needless suffering, thereby acknowledging this capacity in non-human animals. However, the legislation does not extend to poultry, fish, rabbits or other animals routinely slaughtered for food.[[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humane_Slaughter_Act#Exclusionary_policies)]\n\nIn China, the recognition of non-human animal sentience is very limited: [according to Wold Animal Protection](https://api.worldanimalprotection.org/country/china), only a couple Chinese legislative articles refer to the humane treatment of animals and measures to ensure that the animals in question do not suffer, whereas most articles regulating the treatment of animals do not.\n\nIn 2017, the USA produced the most beef and veal, and poultry in the world, whilst China produces the most Pork in the world.[[2](https://sentientmedia.org/which-countries-produce-the-most-meat/)]\n\nThe [US received a D](https://api.worldanimalprotection.org/sites/default/files/api_us_report.pdf) and [China received an E](https://api.worldanimalprotection.org/sites/default/files/api_china_report.pdf) in WAP's 2014 index.\n\n**Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received it in the 2014 index for its recognition of animal sentience by the end 2022?**\n\n----\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis question resolves positively if either the USA receives a grade of C or above, or China receives a grade D or above (or both), in the second edition of the Animal Protection Index, [planned to be released in early 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20190617_pres-12.pdf). This question resolves ambiguously if the grades for China and the USA for the indicator \"Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience\" are not issued before the end of 2022.\n\nThis question shall be retroactively closed and resolved two days before the second edition of the Animal Protection Index is released.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3374, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1583801611.428893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1583801611.428893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.34224760027019197 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3022135829173027, 0.738648072045416, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122, 0.12929776793688225, 0.0, 0.4052703971877295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899439243127377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.5508382775132924, "coverage": 0.18347998585438, "baseline_score": -15.911275494410013, "spot_peer_score": -37.71682389523169, "peer_archived_score": -0.5508382775132924, "baseline_archived_score": -15.911275494410013, "spot_peer_archived_score": -37.71682389523169 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1582495027.196265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1582495027.196265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8640851935534134, 0.13591480644658663 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3371, "title": "Before 2030, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?", "short_title": "EU Requires Fish Stunning before 2030", "url_title": "EU Requires Fish Stunning before 2030", "slug": "eu-requires-fish-stunning-before-2030", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-11-24T17:31:32.117061Z", "published_at": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.925667Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3371, "title": "Before 2030, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?", "created_at": "2019-11-24T17:31:32.117061Z", "open_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-11-28T16:13:14.066795Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-11-28T16:13:14.066795Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)) Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \n\nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\n\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\n\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\n\n>Animals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \n\nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\n\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\n\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\n\n**By the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?**\n\n-----\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive *to have come into effect* before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3371, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745857704.684911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745857704.684911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.3178078337847021 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06124341082421378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06805199387035807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13060746350009406, 0.6621607275305496, 0.0, 0.3386147212732673, 0.0, 0.6545795081321919, 0.9085788666251003, 1.1726429569642882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06024455439084224, 0.22688437022518046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7681613791333005, 0.43084885328731504, 0.4960965120584363, 0.0, 1.2489617736057497, 0.0, 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"actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3386, "title": "Will US consumers be unable to purchase the Cavendish banana at major US grocery chains on December 31, 2029?", "created_at": "2019-11-22T14:54:27.098265Z", "open_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-11-30T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-11-30T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\n\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\n\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Cavendish bananas are unavailable in the US on December 31, 2029.\n\n* The question resolves **negatively** if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not).\n* This question will be resolved on December 31, 2029. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution.\n* \"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will *not* be sufficient for a positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3386, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761765500.005782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761765500.005782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19917593845931283 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.23632867905359678, 0.7794967987342682, 0.0, 0.6195470556045188, 0.8176137788112516, 0.0, 0.07059083564021496, 1.0, 0.0, 1.6333506917950094, 0.0, 0.7635897992428782, 0.0, 0.2972173932125812, 1.610199153685182, 0.8762660767705319, 0.2936757196039515, 0.34331951429497504, 0.5370676552411993, 1.166609090986177, 0.016810815496895358, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15359644674379927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2375856424331337, 0.0, 0.002164380995132114, 0.05730206168043847, 0.008902640948057735, 0.13778371961094252, 0.5643121285728944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036618791251766876, 0.0105689540850258, 0.09890675836209205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0780945946412779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02872939583514363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00741623973729105, 0.12585700968552796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2712168925010875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7126735024003407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288620.034262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288620.034262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9372378628202267, 0.06276213717977328 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 172, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\n\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\n\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish." }, { "id": 3364, "title": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030", "author_id": 110540, "author_username": "randallburns", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-11-22T03:42:12.256617Z", "published_at": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T06:27:11.293032Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T03:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-22T03:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3364, "title": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?", "created_at": "2019-11-22T03:42:12.256617Z", "open_time": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-03-21T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-03-21T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-22T03:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T03:35:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-15T03:35:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples.\n\nHowever, for many companies, \"going public\" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to \"cash out\" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.\n\nQuestion: **Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?**\n\nThe obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, metaculus.com is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.\n\nI included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3364, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762221322.122781, "end_time": 1764085090.458061, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.024 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762221322.122781, "end_time": 1764085090.458061, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.024 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.0892031125729059 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290336.710331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290336.710331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9863180462214292, 0.013681953778570809 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3361, "title": "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-11-20T15:39:36.494080Z", "published_at": "2019-11-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.852500Z", "curation_status": 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"2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\n\nFor the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited\nenormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. \n\nOne of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14) This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless.\n\nAdditionally, a thermodynamical effect effect, the increasing of thermal fluctuations ([Johnson-Nyquist noise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise)) may result in increasingly many false bit occurences on the density of transistors on a chip [(Kish, 2002)](https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0375960102013658?token=DAFEF7A7A274565D5842794BC881A1D1B7E472DD34032AB3672F18D4B961957B75E4A45C536322A0913D01633023164F).\n\nTo continue along at the exponential pace of performance progress, manufacturers have added more processors to each chip. For example, modern CPUs have between two and 32 cores, with most processors containing four to eight. In practice, exploiting eight cores means that a problem has to be broken down into eight pieces — which for many algorithms is difficult to impossible. In fact, [Amdahl's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) predicts that the theoretical speedup of even the most parallelizable program is limited to at most 20 times.\n\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an a geometric mean of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\n\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\n\n**Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?**\n\n------\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThe question resolves positively if the geometric mean of the year-over-year (yoy) growth rate (in %) of the sum of performance experienced over each three year period, from 2025 to 2034, is lower than the next. That is, it resolves positively, if: \n\n> geometric mean(growth rate from 2025 to 2028) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2028 to 2031) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2031 to 2034).\n\nPerformance here means performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraFLOPS at Rmax (i.e. the maximal LINPACK performance achieved).\n\nAs the TOP500 publishes two lists each year, to maximally use all available information, a three-year period shall have six yoy growth rates: the yoy growth rate from:\n\n- Jul year 0 to Jul year 1\n- Nov year 0 to Nov year 1\n- Jul year 1 to Jul year 2\n- Nov year 1 to Nov year 2\n- Jul year 2 to Jul year 3\n- Nov year 2 to Nov year 3\n\nFor example, the three year period starting in 2025 ending in 2028 will have the following six growth rates:\n\n- Jul 2025 to Jul 2026\n- Nov 2025 to Nov 2026\n- Jul 2026 to Jul 2027\n- Nov 2026 to Nov 2027\n- Jul 2027 to Jul 2028\n- Nov 2027 to Nov 2028\n\nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that multiplies over time.\n\n**Data**\n\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. 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"2019-11-23T23:53:26.190403Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\n\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\n\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \n\n**Will ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?**\n\n-----\n\n**Resolution**\n\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll) If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3360, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763895557.202555, "end_time": 1763966638.448338, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763895557.202555, "end_time": 1763966638.448338, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 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"url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-11-19T11:34:47.978430Z", "published_at": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.552016Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 134, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": 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Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\n\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n\n- Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist\n- Voltaire, French philosopher\n- Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor\n\nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\n\n**Will there be a *sitting* U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?**\n\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3359, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763009534.758809, "end_time": 1764284047.668281, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763009534.758809, "end_time": 1764284047.668281, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.13576157041119372 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.36891637816855977, 0.5159417803340954, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6212100335750845, 3.1106470954552647, 0.3072794903898877, 2.8221351852926855, 0.32766753628051837, 2.7306090979585647, 0.6003371649689974, 0.5190330071202606, 0.5809137522401834, 0.8156894559012626, 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the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?", "created_at": "2019-11-19T11:25:02.331130Z", "open_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-11-23T20:04:52.880532Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-11-23T20:04:52.880532Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-12T17:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-01-12T17:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-01-12T17:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China ([wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Hong_Kong_anti-extradition_bill_protests)).\n\nThe Guardian [reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/18/hong-kong-protesters-wary-over-elite-troops-clearing-roadblocks) that on the 16th of November 2019:\n\n> On Saturday afternoon, a few dozen Chinese soldiers jogged out of their barracks in triple file line, wearing shorts and matching army green T-shirts. They cheerily joined a group of residents, clearing away road blocks set up by anti-government protesters, using brooms and plastic buckets.\n\n[This Le Monde article](https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2019/08/06/a-hongkong-une-intervention-par-la-force-est-de-plus-en-plus-probable_5497189_3210.html) (fr) identifies three entities under direct chinese authorities which could intervene in Hong Kong:\n\n + The People's Armed Police (PAP), a paramilitary police under the authority of the Central Military Commission.\n + The People's Liberation Army (PLA), a military force with 5000 troops stationned in Hong Kong. Hong Kong law allows its intervention by request of the Hong Kong government.\n + The Chinese Police, which could reinforce the equivalent Hong Kong Police Force.\n\nThe above November 16th soldiers belonged to the PLA.\n\nQuestion: **Will either PLA, PAP, or mainland police personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong in 2019?**\n\nPositive resolution will be by either:\n\n + The Chinese or Hong Kong government (or any such government affiliated body) declaring this has happened.\n + A UN Security Council permanent member government declaring this has happened.\n + Overwhelming media report this has happened (at least 5 separate first hand accounts, preferably with photographic evidence).\n\nResolution details:\n\n + Physical intervention is taken here to mean that at least some personnel of the Chinese police or PLA or PAP is involved in the controlling, dispersing, or arresting people who are involved in a riot, demonstration, or protest in Hong Kong. These personnel may or may not be requested to assist by Hong Kong government, or the Hong Kong police.\n + The question resolves negatively if evidence in accordance with the above three criteria of the Chinese police or military intervening in 2019 are not found before the end of the 7th of January, 2020.\n + Positive resolution retroactively closes the question 24 hours before the events.\n\n<small>This question was already asked twice: for [August](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2985/will-the-chinese-police-or-military-intervene-in-hong-kong-in-august-2019/) and for [September](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3057/will-the-chinese-police-or-military-intervene-in-hong-kong-in-september-2019/) 2019, and resolved negatively both times.</small>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3358, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577823938.536856, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], 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"question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\n\n**Will the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?**\n\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3351, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763921662.615421, "end_time": 1764135032.522992, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763921662.615421, "end_time": 1764135032.522992, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.4672317565072317 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6394819866585421, 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"id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:42:17.525797Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3345, "title": "Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?", "created_at": "2019-11-15T19:32:23.486367Z", "open_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-11-20T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-11-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-08T20:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-08T20:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-08T20:12:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "It is estimated that [60% of the biomass of mammals are livestock](https://www.pnas.org/content/115/25/6506). The overwhelming majority of these animals are raised in factory farms, where conditions can involve “intense confinement, inhibition of natural behaviors, untreated health issues, and numerous other causes of suffering”.[[1](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ch5fq73AFn2Q72AMQ/why-animals-matter-for-effective-altruism)]\n\nWorld Animal Protection [is expected to update its assessment](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20190617_pres-12.pdf) of each country and considers a number of indicators which address the key issues relevant to improving animal welfare around the world. One of these issue is the welfare of farm animals. Specifically, the following three types of concerns related to the welfare of farm animals are considered:\n\n- The protection of animals’ welfare needs during rearing, such as freedom of movement and freedom to express natural behaviours\n\n- The protection of animals’ welfare needs during transport\n\n- The protection of animals’ welfare needs at slaughter, including avoiding unnecessary suffering\n\nIn 2017, the USA produced the most beef and veal, and poultry in the world, whilst China produces the most Pork in the world.[[2](https://sentientmedia.org/which-countries-produce-the-most-meat/)]\n\n[In the 2014 Animal Protection Index](https://api.worldanimalprotection.org/?_ga=2.217378463.880991823.1573846433-1690045253.1573846433#), the USA was awarded a grade D and China an E for protecting animals used in farming.\n\n**Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for protecting animals used in farming by the end 2022?**\n\n----\n\nThis question resolves positively if *either* the USA receives a grade C or above, *or* China receives a grade D or above, for the indicator \"protecting animals used in farming\" (*or both*). The relevant grades are those published in the second edition of the Animal Protection Index, [planned to be released in early 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20190617_pres-12.pdf). This question resolves ambiguously if the grades for China and the USA for the indicator \"protecting animals used in farming\" are not issued for any years until, and including 2022, before the end of 2023.\n\nIn case multiple versions of the Animal Protection Index are released by the end of 2022, this question resolves per the indicator grades of the first to be released.\n\nThis question shall be retroactively closed and resolved two days before the second edition of the Animal Protection Index is released.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3345, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1583802178.871315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1583802178.871315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 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"2019-11-08T19:19:09.123833Z", "open_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-11-24T01:16:00.248089Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-11-24T01:16:00.248089Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford)\nwas the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been\nin preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at\n[Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation).\n\nHis preservation was rather primitive and late:\n\n> Bedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural\ncauses related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern\ncryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was\nprimitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and\n85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term\ncryogenics […].\n\nA longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found\n[here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html).\n\nBecause he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because\nof his symbolic importance, this question asks: __Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200?__\n\nFor the purposes of this question, the revival of James Bedford must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n* [“Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be reuscitated before 2200?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-reuscitated-before-2200/)\n* [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3332, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760941441.545101, "end_time": 1764502074.388195, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760941441.545101, "end_time": 1764502074.388195, "forecaster_count": 53, 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resuscitated or emulated before 2200?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200", "author_id": 106400, "author_username": "pranomostro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-11-08T19:15:39.962911Z", "published_at": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T06:24:21.494178Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3330, "title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?", "created_at": "2019-11-08T19:15:39.962911Z", "open_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of\nmaking cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject\nto speculation.\n\nTo pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this\nquestion asks:\n\n __Will any person that has been in cryopreservation for\nmore than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?__\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined\nby at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology,\nNeuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is\nindependent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient,\nto be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours\nat some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that\nthe attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain\nemulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\n\nMoreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\n\n\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3330, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761771162.551754, "end_time": 1765054790.264475, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761771162.551754, "end_time": 1765054790.264475, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], 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2, 2020?", "created_at": "2019-11-02T18:35:21.118003Z", "open_time": "2019-11-03T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-11-04T20:19:33.953027Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-11-04T20:19:33.953027Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-20T14:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-20T14:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-20T14:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-01-15T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, 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This would force a special recall vote with an up-down on the recall and votes for a possible replacement.\n\nUnder California law, any elected official may be the target of a recall campaign. To trigger a recall election, proponents of the recall must gather a certain number of signatures from registered voters within a certain time period. The number of signatures statewide must equal 12% of the number of votes cast in the previous election for that office.\n\nUnder most circumstances in which a recall campaign against a statewide elected official has gathered the required number of signatures, the governor is required to schedule a special election for the recall vote. If the recall campaign qualified less than 180 days prior to the next regularly scheduled election, then the recall becomes part of that regularly scheduled election. In recall of the governor, the responsibility for scheduling a special election falls on the lieutenant governor.\n\nThe recall ballot has two components: \n* a yes or no vote for recall, and the names of replacement candidates, selected by the nomination process used in regular elections. \n* The recall measure itself is successful if it passes by a majority. In that case, the replacement candidate with a simple plurality of votes wins the office. If the recall measure fails, the replacement candidate votes are ignored.\n\nThe Cruz recall was approved for circulation by the California Secretary of State on September 6, 2019. Supporters of that recall have until February 13, 2020, to collect 1,495,709 signatures to force a recall election.\n\nThe Veltmeyer recall was approved for circulation on September 27, 2019. Supporters of the recall have until March 5, 2020, to collect 1,495,709 signatures to force a recall election.\n\n***Resolves positive if at least 1,495,709 signatures are gathered and certified before the February 2020 and/or March 2020 deadlines. ***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3286, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1579115766.430475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1579115766.430475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.09549180065180257 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.4426260194097713, 0.0, 1.597945149470076, 0.34703328495953834, 1.5288923156970482, 1.0215061849351919, 1.211124044747553, 0.0, 1.1560690346507816, 0.8555305659690515, 0.5485576322922082, 0.03850858165784335, 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A digit is the finger or toe of land vertebrates, the skeleton of which consists of small bones called phalanges. The tips of the digits are usually protected keratinous structures (claws, in the case of mice) which are also used for defence or manipulation. Digits are numbered one through five, beginning with the inside digit (thumb) when the palm (paw) is face downward [(Encyclopædia Britannica)](https://www.britannica.com/science/digit-anatomy).\n\nThe fingertip is the only part of the human limb that is regeneration‐competent [(Dolan et al., 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5827737/) The regenerating mouse digit tip has emerged as a model to study a clinically relevant regenerative response. According to [(Dolan et al., 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5827737/) this is for good reason:\n\n> Studies of digit tip regeneration have identified critical components of the regenerative response, and how an understanding of endogenous regeneration can lead to expanding the regenerative capabilities of nonregenerative amputation wounds. Such studies demonstrate that regeneration‐incompetent wounds can respond to treatment with individual morphogenetic agents by initiating a multi‐tissue response that culminates in structural regeneration.\n\n**In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in mice or rats (i.e. in excess of endogenous regeneration)?**\n\n---\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis question resolves positively if results that provide strong evidence of the efficacy of the medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration digits in mice or rats are published in a reputable journal. 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}, "question": { "id": 3283, "title": "By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?", "created_at": "2019-11-02T13:14:00.345482Z", "open_time": "2019-11-02T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-11-02T18:37:22.305290Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-11-02T18:37:22.305290Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-08T21:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-08T21:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-08T21:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": 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Each block contains a cryptographic hash of the previous block, a timestamp, and transaction data.\n\nBlockchain was invented by a person (or group of people) using the name Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008 to serve as the public transaction ledger of the cryptocurrency bitcoin.\n\nIn addition to its application in cryptocurrencies, blockchain has also been proposed as a method to enable [smart-contracts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_contract), i.e. contracts that can be partially or fully executed or enforced without human interaction.\n\nBlockchain, and especially the cryptocurrencies that it enables, have have had some geopolitical ramifications, according to [Trustnodes](https://www.trustnodes.com/2018/02/23/geopolitical-implications-blockchain-technology):\n\n> As Venezuela embarks on a radical experiment, as Turkey trades with Russia through crypto payments, as Iran considers its own cryptocurrency, and as Saudi Arabia as well as Dubai announce plans to issue digital currencies, the ramifications of blockchain technology to the post world war two financial order are becoming clearer by the day.\n\n**In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if *any* of the following occurs:\n\n- A new cryptocurrency will be issued by national government(s), and achieve a market capitalisation of >$10bn (in 2019 USD);\n\n- Cryptocurrencies are used to enable trade for goods and services for which at least one counterparty is being economically sanctioned by at least one G20 country, and the value of the trade flow exceeds $750M (in 2019 USD);\n\n- Cryptocurrencies are used to fund a group designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organizations by the United States, with funding being in excess of $100M;\n\n- Blockchain enabled smart contracts are implemented by any G20 government as part of national trade policy, or climate change mitigation policies to address commitment problems.\n\nIn case it's unclear to admins how to resolve this question, it shall be decided by unanimous vote of a committee of three, comprised of Zaki Manian, Allison Duettmann, and Anthony Aguirre. 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"2019-10-31T19:26:59.286771Z", "open_time": "2019-11-02T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-11-03T18:29:50.114782Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-11-03T18:29:50.114782Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-23T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-23T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-23T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[According to Leafscience](https://www.leafscience.org/a-step-closer-to-regenerating-the-aging-thymus/), a life extension advocacy foundation, the thymus is one of the most important organs in the body, and potentially a suitable target for therapies that seek to extend the human health-span:\n\n> it is where thymocytes produced in the bone marrow travel to become new T cells before being trained in the lymph nodes to become the defenders of the adaptive immune system. However, as we get older, the thymus increasingly turns to fat and starts to shrink, causing its ability to produce new T cells to fall dramatically. This process is known as thymic involution and actually begins shortly after puberty, so this is one aspect of aging that begins fairly early in life, although it is many decades later before its decline causes serious health issues.\n\n**In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?**\n\n---\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis question resolves positively if between November 2nd 2019 and November 2nd 2020, it is credibly disclosed that a new in vivo study on regeneration or rejuvenating the human thymus has been started after November 2nd 2019. 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war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war#2019) is an ongoing economic conflict between the world’s two largest national economies. President Donald Trump in 2018 began setting tariffs and other trade barriers on China with the goal of forcing it to make changes to what the U.S. says are \"unfair trade practices\".\n\nSo far, the US has imposed tariffs on more than $360bn (£296bn) of Chinese goods, and China has retaliated with tariffs on more than $110bn of US products ([BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45899310)).\n\n**Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?**\n\n\n-----\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis resolves positively if, over August 2nd, 2020 to November 2nd, 2020 period,\n\n1. the U.S. imposes additional ≥$15bn worth in tariffs on Chinese goods, or China imposes addtional ≥$5bn worth of tarrifs on imports from the U.S.\n\nAND, over August 2nd, 2020 to November 2nd, 2020 period,\n\n2. 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Recently, it's become increasingly acknowledged that directly targeting the aging process, as opposed to individual aging-related diseases or symptoms, is a viable strategy ([Magalhães et al., 2017](https://www.cell.com/trends/biotechnology/fulltext/S0167-7799(17)30171-3#%20)) This is leading to R&D with the ultimate aim of commercializing therapies directed at slowing aging itself.\n\nOne of the more popular areas of research involves senolytics — a class of drugs that target and destroy aging (or senescent) cells. These drugs are in the early stages of development and might be approved by the FDA to be prescribed to target a specific condition or disease, and would carry the secondary impact of slowing down aging. Some, (notably, Unity Biotechnology, the >$200M startup) are betting large on the success of senolytics.\n\nAccording to [a research report by CBINSIGHTS](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/future-aging-technology-startups/), around $800M was invested in longevity startups in 2018 (see specifically [this chart](https://s3.amazonaws.com/cbi-research-portal-uploads/2018/09/25030701/funding-activity.png)) This was the result of several large deals (such as [UNITY Biotechnology series B](https://www.crunchbase.com/funding_round/unity-biotechnology-series-b--499993df#section-overview), [Insilico Medicine series A](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/insilico-medicine/funding_rounds/funding_rounds_list#section-funding-rounds), and [a deal by AgeX Therapeutics](https://www.agexinc.com/agex-therapeutics-obtains-10-million-in-capital-and-commences-operations/)) \n\nEven more impressive was Sumumed's 2018 fundraising campaign, [which raised a total of $438M](https://www.crunchbase.com/funding_round/samumed-series-a--1963acc7).\n\n\n**Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020 (i.e. from November 2nd, 2019 to November 2nd 2020)?**\n\n--- \n\nThis question resolves positively if credible reports indicate that $5000M or more has been invested through seed stage and mid stage funding rounds, in longevity startups in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, according to data from crunchbase or other sources of venture capital and angel investment financing information. Mergers and acquisitions shall not count as investment for the purpose of this question. \n\nCompanies are considered working on \"longevity\" [if these are on AgingBiotech.Info's list](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/). If these are not on the list, an admin should decide whether the company is primarily focussed on the research and development of longevity enhancing therapeutics.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3267, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1601492884.325554, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1601492884.325554, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.18280195548990863 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.516452131437947, 0.0, 0.1478430754715826, 0.0, 0.19141712279571851, 0.0, 1.0012475419026206, 0.34241990966815894, 0.0095357691321311, 1.166764626854778, 0.004570270231056109, 0.00412801400445961, 0.16752879140593907, 0.0, 0.7774997263751762, 0.8577024050133123, 0.328688654581338, 1.2269214365388879, 0.6207606596405237, 2.0995524468170896, 0.1387821380231844, 0.9549977663202251, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7611371858518514, 0.0, 0.09109940874602039, 0.011098223798763643, 0.0, 0.4279034034288348, 2.363016225817989, 0.006140849381198352, 0.23901385936846245, 0.0, 0.17207364486128102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15398427103676876, 0.0, 0.3237891856669924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01382753425254863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002539280627490721, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021721036730799502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006116391588802215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01511596887907778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06363151622541348 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.068565854001456, "coverage": 0.9995864832205652, "baseline_score": 65.6600628044785, "spot_peer_score": 38.119175312264915, "peer_archived_score": 21.068565854001456, "baseline_archived_score": 65.6600628044785, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.119175312264915 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1601492884.394738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1601492884.394738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9444712269279939, 0.055528773072006085 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 145, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
](http://chart](https://s3.amazonaws.com/cbi-research-portal-uploads/2018/09/25030701/funding-activity.png)){kind=link}