Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5580
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5600", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5560", "results": [ { "id": 3284, "title": "In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "in-the-year-ending-november-2nd-2020-will-a-funding-round-for-a-private-company-include-a-valuation-in-excess-of-1bn-for-a-company-with-a-primary-business-focus-of-longevity", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-10-31T13:13:12.134052Z", "published_at": "2019-11-02T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.710572Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-11-02T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T00:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T00:04:00Z", "open_time": "2019-11-02T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "π§βπ€βπ§", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2976, "type": "question_series", "name": "Foresight 2020 Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-10-30T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.235225Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.426334Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2976, "type": "question_series", "name": "Foresight 2020 Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-10-30T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.235225Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.426334Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 3284, "title": "In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?", "created_at": "2019-10-31T13:13:12.134052Z", "open_time": "2019-11-02T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-11-02T21:43:14.724376Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-11-02T21:43:14.724376Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T00:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T00:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-04T00:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Recently, it's become increasingly acknowledged that directly targeting the aging process, as opposed to individual aging-related diseases or symptoms, is a viable strategy ([MagalhΓ£es et al., 2017](https://www.cell.com/trends/biotechnology/fulltext/S0167-7799(17)30171-3#%20)) This is leading to R&D with the ultimate aim of commercializing therapies directed at slowing aging itself.\n\nOne of the more popular areas of research involves senolytics β a class of drugs that target and destroy aging (or senescent) cells. These drugs are in the early stages of development and might be approved by the FDA to be prescribed to target a specific condition or disease, and would carry the secondary impact of slowing down aging. Some, (notably, Unity Biotechnology, the startup with a valuation in excess off $200M) are betting large on the success of senolytics.\n\n\n**In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of 1bn in 2019 USD for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?**\n\n--- \n\nThis question resolves positively if credible financial reporting indicates that a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn in 2019 USD for a with a primary business focus of longevity. Private funding rounds here refer to venture rounds, mezzanine finance rounds, seed rounds and angel rounds.\n\nCompanies are considered working on \"longevity\" [if these are on AgingBiotech.Info's list](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) and listed as \"yes\" or \"only brain\" in the \"Is it aging?\" column. If the list is for some reason no longer available, an admin should decide whether the company is primarily focussed on the research and development of longevity enhancing therapeutics.\n\nCompanies that were previously valued in excess $1bn that do not raise money in a private funding stage in the year ending November 2nd, 2020 do not count as qualifying companies for the purpose of this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3284, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1601493981.475544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1601493981.475544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.12240747908370744 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1403107309745653, 0.8195358020918782, 1.4650228104386498, 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"movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 243, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3263, "title": "By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "by-november-2nd-2020-will-80-or-fewer-people-be-employed-by-deepmind-than-the-836-employed-today", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-10-29T13:48:50.774856Z", "published_at": "2019-11-02T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.456541Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-11-02T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-02T07:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-02T07:35:00Z", "open_time": "2019-11-02T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 174, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "π€", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2976, "type": "question_series", "name": "Foresight 2020 Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-10-30T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.235225Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.426334Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2976, "type": "question_series", "name": "Foresight 2020 Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-10-30T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.235225Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.426334Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "π»", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "π€", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3263, "title": "By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?", "created_at": "2019-10-29T13:48:50.774856Z", "open_time": "2019-11-02T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-11-02T22:37:45.525737Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-11-02T22:37:45.525737Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-02T07:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-02T07:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-02T07:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-09T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-09T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "DeepMind is a UK company founded in September 2010, currently owned by Alphabet Inc. The company has been at the forefront of research in artificial intelligence [(Holcomb et al., 2018)](https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=3206174) \n\nThe company has recently not been profitable, however. [According to the FT](https://www.ft.com/content/d4280856-b92d-11e9-8a88-aa6628ac896c),\n\n> The artificial intelligence subsidiary of Alphabet, saw its losses rise by 55 per cent last year to Β£470.2m ($571m) and its debts rise to more than Β£1bn as the worldβs biggest technology companies continue to pour huge sums into AI research and development.\n\nCurrently, [the relevant LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/company/deepmind/people/) page reveals that 836 people are reportedly currently employed by DeepMind.\n\n**By November 2nd, 2020, will 668 or fewer people be employed by DeepMind, [according to LinkedIn search results](https://www.linkedin.com/company/deepmind/people/)?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3263, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1602281809.084898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1602281809.084898, 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"2024-02-29T10:13:20.235225Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.426334Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "π§βπ€βπ§", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "βοΈ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "π»", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "π€", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3262, "title": "In the year ending on November 2nd, 2020, will the total worldwide non-governmental funding of AI & Automation social science research exceed $100M?", "created_at": "2019-10-29T13:47:17.085448Z", "open_time": "2019-11-02T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-11-02T21:16:44.560751Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-11-02T21:16:44.560751Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-09T01:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-09T01:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-09T01:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Artificial Intelligence is a rapidly advancing form of technology with the potential to reshape various social, economic and political orders. This may result in tremendous opportunities for progress on important metrics. The risks, however, are also substantial and plausibly pose extreme governance challenges.\n\nCurrently, various research organisations are studying the social and political implications of advances in AI, including, but not limited to:\n\n- [The Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society](https://cyber.harvard.edu/)\n- [The MIT Stephen A. Schwarzman College of Computing](http://computing.mit.edu/about/)\n- [The Stephen A. Schwarzman Centre for the Humanities](https://www.schwarzmancentre.ox.ac.uk/)\n- [The Future of Humanity Institute](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/)\n- [The Alan Turing Institute](https://www.turing.ac.uk/)\n- [The Leverhulme Center for the Future of Intelligence](http://lcfi.ac.uk/)\n- [The AI Now Institute](https://ainowinstitute.org/)\n- [The Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence](https://hai.stanford.edu/)\n- [The Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://cset.georgetown.edu/)\n- [The Schwartz Reisman Institute for Technology and Society](https://www.utoronto.ca/news/tags/schwartz-reisman-institute-technology-and-society)\n\n**In the year ending on November 2nd, 2020, will the total worldwide non-governmental funding of AI & Automation social science research organisations exceed $100M in 2019 USD?**\n\n----\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis question resolves positively, if the total worldwide non-governmental funding of AI & Automation social science research organisations exceeds $100M. For the sake of this question, the funding qualifies as funding of AI & Automation social science research if:\n\n- the purpose of the funding is disclosed and makes it evident that at least 30% of the funding is to be spent on supporting (in broad terms) social science research\n- in case the the purpose of the funding is not fully disclosed, recipient must be an organisation that is determined by an admin to dedicate >30% of its research effort on social science research.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, only funding provided in the 365 day period starting on November 2nd, 2019, will count towards to total funding amount considered in this question. Any previous funding made available before this date but amortised over the 365 day period starting on November 2nd, 2019 does not count.\n\nThe question should be resolved with reference to data that is publicly available as of 2nd of November, 2020.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3262, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1601462611.359782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1601462611.359782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7360428301222461 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2987122033379259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19253846336271532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3503506487850349, 0.0, 0.0, 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null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2976, "type": "question_series", "name": "Foresight 2020 Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-10-30T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.235225Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.426334Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2976, "type": "question_series", "name": "Foresight 2020 Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-10-30T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.235225Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.426334Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 3257, "title": "By November 2nd, 2020, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump, or @teamtrump, or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?", "created_at": "2019-10-27T20:14:41.679065Z", "open_time": "2019-10-30T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-10-30T20:37:38.995952Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-10-30T20:37:38.995952Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-10-17T09:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-10-17T09:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-17T09:42:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "From his official declaration of candidacy in June 2015 through the first two-and-a-half years of his presidency, Donald Trump has tweeted over 17,000 times ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_on_social_media)) \n\nSince early on in his presidency, [there have been many calls](https://www.wired.com/story/twitter-ban-donald-trump/) for Twitter to suspend Trump. Recently, Kamala Harris, a candidate for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States in the 2020 election, has argued that Trump has been violating the platformβs user agreement, as his tweets are:\n\n> βblatant threats that put people at risk and our democracy in danger. No user, regardless of their job, wealth, or stature should be exempt from abiding by Twitterβs user agreement, not even the president of the United States [[1](https://twitter.com/AlexThomasDC/status/1179361714162282496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1179361714162282496&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2F2019%2Foct%2F04%2Fshould-trump-be-banned-from-twitter)]β \n\n**By November 2nd, 2020, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @[realDonaldTrump](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump), or [@teamtrump](https://twitter.com/teamtrump?lang=en), or [@POTUS](https://twitter.com/POTUS) based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?**\n\n\n----\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis resolves positively if Twitter confirms that it has intentionally temporarily or permanently suspended [@realDonaldTrump](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump), or [@teamtrump](https://twitter.com/teamtrump?lang=en), or [@POTUS](https://twitter.com/POTUS). Moreover, Twitter must confirm that the suspension was due to alleged violations of its [Terms of Service](https://twitter.com/en/tos).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3257, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1602904700.876142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 332, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1602904700.876142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 332, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10302648970176724 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 7.901919673526499, 1.6165139103875057, 4.9164731790250995, 1.3402380996379393, 3.002204627792146, 0.43730953728495725, 0.9965567018891733, 1.780627180527953, 1.8916016182901436, 1.560961654840276, 0.319313873972495, 0.1387597033695376, 1.1833543729026232, 0.011736316694268514, 1.4060725202126942, 0.004584662277053491, 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"slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-10-30T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.235225Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.426334Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 3256, "title": "By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?", "created_at": "2019-10-27T20:12:27.333912Z", "open_time": "2019-10-30T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-10-30T15:35:42.590326Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-10-30T15:35:42.590326Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-05T07:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-05T07:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-05T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-01T01:02:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-01T01:02:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "According to [a study by research website Comparitech](https://www.comparitech.com/vpn-privacy/the-worlds-most-surveilled-cities/), eight out of the ten most surveilled cities in the world are in China. The country has been making headlines for its generous use of surveillance technology and is featured heavily throughout the whole ranking that looked at 120 cities globally. According to Comparitech's list, the following cities are most heavily surveilled, in terms of the number surveillance cameras per 1,000 people (non-Chinese cities in bold):\n\n1. Chongqing, China β 168.03 cameras per 1,000 people\n2. Shenzhen, China β 159.09 cameras per 1,000 people\n3. Shanghai, China β 113.46 cameras per 1,000 people\n4. Tianjin, China β 92.87 cameras per 1,000 people\n5. Jiβnan, China β 73.82 cameras per 1,000 people\n6. **London, England (UK) β 68.40 cameras per 1,000 people**\n7. Wuhan, China β 60.49 cameras per 1,000 people\n8. Guangzhou, China β 52.75 cameras per 1,000 people\n9. Beijing, China β 39.93 cameras per 1,000 people\n10. **Atlanta, Georgia (US) β 15.56 cameras per 1,000 people**\n\n**By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?**\n\n----\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of any reports published by Comparitech in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020. 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"description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Psychedelics are a class of drug whose primary action is to trigger psychedelic experiences via [serotonin receptor agonism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serotonin_receptor_agonist), causing thought and visual/auditory changes, and altered state of consciousness. Common psychedelic drugs include mescaline, LSD, psilocybin and DMT.\n\nMany psychedelic drugs are illegal worldwide under the [UN conventions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Psychotropic_Substances), occasionally excepting use in a religious or research context. Despite these controls, recreational use of psychedelics is common, with [Krebs and Johansen, 2013](https://f1000research.com/articles/2-98/v1) estimating that there are over 30 million psychedelic users in the United States.\n\nThis year, a group of private donors has given $17 million to start the Center for Psychedelic and Consciousness Research at Johns Hopkins Medicine, to start, what is claimed to be the first such research center in the U.S. and the largest research center of its kind in the world [(John Hopkins, 2019)](https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/09/04/hopkins-launches-psychedelic-center/).\n\nThe corporate side has also taken interest in psychedelics. In March, pharmaceutical and consumer goods firm Johnson & Johnson received FDA approval for a new nasal spray using esketamine, a derivative of ketamine, to help treat patients suffering from depression. Similarly, [Atai Life Sciences](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/atai-life-sciences-ag) has [reportedly raised $25 million](https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-psychedelic-research-startup-mushrooms-psilocybin-depression-atai-2018-9?r=US&IR=T) to finance research on the effects of psychedelics and other drugs on depression and other mental illnesses.\n\n**In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M, in 2019 USD?**\n\n----\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis question resolves positively if credible news reports or credible financial reports indicate that the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M. Psychedelics here include:\n\n- [Serotonergic psychedelics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serotonergic_psychedelic), such as psilocybin, psilocin and LSD;\n- [Empathogens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empathogen%E2%80%93entactogen), such as MDMA;\n- [Dissociatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissociative), such as ketamine.\n\nNote that this list *excludes [cannabinoids](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabinoid)*. U.S. investment here is taken to mean investment (by any party) in companies registered in the U.S., research organisations registered in the U.S. Note: admins should take care to avoid double counting in case U.S., companies receive funding to subsequently fund research by U.S. research organisations.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3255, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1604168653.825327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1604168653.825327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.3085765620791064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.30122119447985796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08627930050774651, 0.21987004191048845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.646962296432465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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As the name suggests they are generally considered a single-issue party advocating for a swift Brexit on WTO terms (AKA a 'no-deal' Brexit).\n\nThe party is, at the time of writing, less than one year old (although can be thought of as the spiritual successor to the UK Independence Party, of which Farage was previously the figurehead). It won the most votes in the UK at the recent European elections - but can that success transfer into a general election where UKIP only ever won one seat? Can the party survive in a post-Brexit political landscape (if such a thing ever comes to pass)? Or will Farage himself finally win a seat at the eighth time of asking?\n\n**Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if the Brexit Party wins one or more seats at the next UK General Election, as reported by the BBC and negatively otherwise. By-elections and defections do not count. \n\nThis question should close two weeks before the date of the election, which will be, at the latest, 05/05/2022 but may well be much earlier.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3252, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1576247134.126221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1576247134.126221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.13031471018448706 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.420838410266202, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 1.1345423146710416, 1.5541459864739142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43776641345902195, 0.5739768683135134, 0.0, 0.5324674097611531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023413487787231745, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6107322731909157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4038734030575686, 0.0, 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"id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "π", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3251, "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?", "created_at": "2019-10-26T04:30:01.247073Z", "open_time": "2019-10-29T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-10-29T16:55:57.560848Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-10-29T16:55:57.560848Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-23T12:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-23T12:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-23T12:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024.\n\nSo far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [SpaceIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceIL) or any other Israeli company or group is the next organization (excluding those from the US, Russia, and China) to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon before December 31, 2025. If any group outside of the US, Russia, or China land on the Moon before Israel and before December 31, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf no group does this (excluding those in the US, Russia, or China) before December 31, 2025, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, the country that builds the lunar lander will receive credit for the soft landing; the rocket or payload such as rovers may be provided by anyone", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3251, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692801501.446813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692801501.446813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.24186752762273878 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.447126776624858, 1.9083019985631198, 0.0, 0.8737343732279643, 0.0, 0.43332838014075953, 0.04157152307865022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00333556128493002, 0.03022172810477587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7519335121414802, 0.1003385141379112, 0.0, 0.22650683165848534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5072128505835548, 0.8349863617493772, 0.20053028614578042, 0.0, 0.13329527515995862, 0.44895958186624646, 0.5502763660447365, 0.6751369645589285, 1.0053508991261009, 0.0, 2.987573174256946, 0.5016689429387005, 0.3876270157627152, 1.906826953570266, 0.7063941363278101, 0.25111076050801207, 0.007188003025863084, 0.0, 0.39470602955801953, 0.10545530746046276, 0.6378729597142567, 0.0036516523154034534, 0.19901311988960824, 0.0, 0.35649027364374075, 0.0636605565694375, 0.0, 0.012537742091876572, 0.0, 0.05998026892111763, 0.02400445877417937, 0.15677230163432815, 0.0, 7.882431206593951e-05, 0.0, 0.07168056878338329, 0.000196551008237661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01641972249325137, 0.1287158638739601, 0.0, 0.0001615250781465044, 0.0, 0.01761663841621335, 0.05232242917922003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03665036053377302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006705873811975223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008611565368432893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26408557366114616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.339312098993801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009704999563037674 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.637856294759024, "coverage": 0.6180493980056728, "baseline_score": 26.371684385921547, "spot_peer_score": 0.37140740178471787, "peer_archived_score": 8.637856294759024, "baseline_archived_score": 26.371684385921547, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.37140740178471787 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692085281.728051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692085281.728051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9174929582402047, 0.0825070417597953 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 353, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024.\n\nSo far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon." }, { "id": 3244, "title": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?", "short_title": "Caro's 5th LBJ Biography Published", "url_title": "Caro's 5th LBJ Biography Published", "slug": "caros-5th-lbj-biography-published", "author_id": 101341, "author_username": "Pablo", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-10-23T14:00:16.677220Z", "published_at": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T08:21:39.127832Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "π", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 3244, "title": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?", "created_at": "2019-10-23T14:00:16.677220Z", "open_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-10-27T03:43:53.085913Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-10-27T03:43:53.085913Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on _The Years of Lyndon Johnson_, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\n\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\n\n>In November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964β65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\n\n>In an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Caro's fifth and final volume of _The Years of Lyndon Johnson_ becomes available for order (_not_ pre-order) on amazon.com while Caro is still alive.\n\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, this question will resolve as **No** if the book intended to be the last one is not published during Caro's lifetime. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3244, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763012624.602362, "end_time": 1764382776.961992, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763012624.602362, "end_time": 1764382776.961992, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.4608810875299901 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03211265593215371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1739445410540976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012543399915659996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9420630049069032, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0317252051359824, 0.045113666448411936, 1.4329739995744062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5764413227373655, 0.04534008316379588, 0.0, 0.06190426115630072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7842285291677896, 3.1267478372869864, 0.0, 0.576184867157456, 0.0, 1.224197151100116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3540843842215641, 0.04039659446984174, 0.1711754945605547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43733464808147215, 0.022188915831439535, 0.0, 0.3010722380634753, 0.0, 0.6249752706799355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10066260077593363, 0.08764361491919935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02849461598813083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05025074089134997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935570848773425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2022232047570948 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286847.486815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286847.486815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6993555291615167, 0.30064447083848334 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 245, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on _The Years of Lyndon Johnson_, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\n\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\n\n>In November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964β65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\n\n>In an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume." }, { "id": 3241, "title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025", "author_id": 110717, "author_username": "periastron", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-10-21T18:36:25.705777Z", "published_at": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.676411Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:18:00Z", "open_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "π¬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "π", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3241, "title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2019-10-21T18:36:25.705777Z", "open_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-12-29T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-12-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T16:22:41.603557Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n\n1. is in orbit around the Sun, \n2. is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and,\n3. has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit.\n\nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\n\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\n\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\n\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\n\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \n\n**will the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025**?\n\n---\n\n**Resolution details**\n\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\n\n> A βplanetβ is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \n\nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n\n- Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or\n- Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or\n- Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c).\n\nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n\n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3241, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735697143.277559, "end_time": null, 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n\n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\n\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip ErdoΔan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\n\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Turkey is a NATO member continuously from October 1, 2019 to January 1, 2025. The question will resolve as **No** if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before January 1, 2025.\n\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3238, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654433.471706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 207, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654433.471706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 207, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0040000000000000036, 0.996 ], "means": [ 0.971884460216561 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3931526554224048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007129736167464233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.51795096833379e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.376506105470732e-05, 7.571645239298034e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001557380561978581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001011976418659754, 0.0, 6.146277751066631e-05, 7.169827073579419e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.485238648554602e-05, 0.001845157314548469, 1.803145266257081e-05, 0.0, 0.0013405988248418599, 0.0034489112313688362, 0.0030578775284092804, 0.0001922829303398516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006240428944557518, 0.00032307097054018236, 0.0, 3.2107565181412484e-05, 0.0008190342295537493, 0.0, 0.004803253198341547, 0.002636866183600825, 9.248398566822203e-05, 0.16240054749889563, 0.0002909100132189358, 0.017222459084377847, 0.0, 0.011019200613898359, 0.010692137220434546, 0.016708053522426925, 0.24435462790542986, 0.002025088657165507, 0.011141126133810119, 0.000368248022904655, 0.011512972876132113, 0.6431374747076508, 0.16898009416206475, 0.011306889614242333, 0.08039959783374201, 0.858139924045411, 0.05733446856471863, 0.6654436813560833, 0.5305469234897067, 0.34453409671343294, 23.008659542956956 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.07931014991934, "peer_score": 15.582521980314176, "coverage": 0.9999231143257883, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999231143257883, "spot_peer_score": 2.3026502187197635, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 75.07931014991934, "peer_archived_score": 15.582521980314176, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.3026502187197635, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288760.41585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288760.41585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.01053659174853161, 0.9894634082514684 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 544, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n\n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\n\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip ErdoΔan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\n\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member." }, { "id": 3235, "title": "Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-30-november-2019-will-it-be-announced-that-the-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep-free-trade-agreement-negotiations-have-concluded", "author_id": 103777, "author_username": "datscilly", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-10-15T22:04:23.808390Z", "published_at": "2019-10-18T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.303786Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-10-18T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-11-15T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-11-15T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-11-30T15:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-11-30T15:25:00Z", "open_time": "2019-10-18T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, 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"2019-11-15T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*This question was generated from the [IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2](https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge2.html).*\n\nRCEP is a proposed trade agreement between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members and their free trade agreement partners (<a href = \"https://www.bilaterals.org/rcep\"target=\"_blank\">RCEP</a>, <a href = \"https://asean.org/?static_post=rcep-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership\"target=\"_blank\">ASEAN</a>). Negotiators have worked on a trade deal for several years, and now hope to have an agreement by the end of the year (<a href = \"https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/indian-chinese-officials-hold-dialogue-to-break-deadlock-in-rcep-trade-negotiations/article27819699.ece\"target=\"_blank\">TheHinduBusinessLine</a>, <a href = \"https://www.straitstimes.com/politics/singapore-and-australia-confident-that-rcep-negotiations-can-conclude-by-end-2019\"target=\"_blank\">StraitsTimes</a>). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a \"yes\" resolution.\n\n---\n\nResolves positive if by 00:00:01 UTC November 30, 2019, ASEAN representatives or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an RCEP participating country (any one of [16 countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership)) makes an announcement that the RCEP negotiations have concluded, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3235, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1573782909.665635, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1573782909.665635, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 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80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32596, "name": "2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "π¬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "π»", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3216, "title": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?", "created_at": "2019-10-12T17:56:43.191020Z", "open_time": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-02-14T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-02-14T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "This will be \"True\" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word \"hydrino\", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word \"hydrino\". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.\n\nThe conjunction of Randell Mills with the word \"hydrino\" is taken as implying that Mills's <a href=\"https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/\">Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics</a> is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3216, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1606692313.193799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1606692313.193799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03558637778244198 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 9.280339003180774, 2.417108042061411, 1.8007368114894164, 0.29626291100250557, 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"Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "π€", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3215, "title": "Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion?", "created_at": "2019-10-12T17:42:25.143499Z", "open_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-12-20T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-12-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2020-11-20T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-11-20T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "With the progressive centralization of social policy comes a conflict:\n\n* Decreasing practicality of experimental control groups to infer social causality.\n\nvs.\n\n* Increasing ethical responsibility to predict outcomes caused by policies that affect larger numbers of humans that did not individually provide informed consent to the experimental treatments.\n\nSocial scientists play a critical role in resolving this conflict β a conflict that is contributing to <a href=\"https://youtu.be/Jo3_ie_Cr94\">a decrease in political civility</a>. Radically-conflicting macrosocial models formed from a vast grab-bag of microsocial models are ill-suited to this resolution. The resulting incommensurable macrosocial models, and their unprincipled selection for application during partisan politics, may be resolved with an advance in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) theory stating that given a set of observations, the most-predictive of existing models is the one that can most-compress those observations without loss. \n\nThis is the topic of <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minsky\">Marvin Minsky</a>'s final advice to predictors:\n\n> It seems to me that the most important discovery since GΓΆdel was the discovery by Chaitin, Solomonoff and Kolmogorov of the concept called Algorithmic Probability which is a fundamental new theory of how to make predictions given a collection of experiences and this is a beautiful theory, everybody should learn it, but itβs got one problem, that is, that you cannot actually calculate what this theory predicts because it is too hard, it requires an infinite amount of work. However, it should be possible to make practical approximations to the Chaitin, Kolmogorov, Solomonoff theory that would make better predictions than anything we have today. Everybody should learn all about that and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\n\n> β βββMarvin Minsky\n<a href=\"https://youtu.be/DfY-DRsE86s?t=5403\">Panel discussion on The Limits of Understanding</a>\nWorld Science Festival, NYC, Dec 14, 2014\n\nFor some insight, you can watch the Nature video <a href=\"https://youtu.be/rkmz7DAA-t8\">\"Remodeling Machine Learning: An AI That Thinks Like a Scientist\"</a> based on <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-018-0005-0\">H. Zenil, N. A. Kiani, A. A. Zea, and J. Tegner, βCausal deconconvolution by algorithmic generative models,β Nature Machine Intelligence, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 58, 2019.</a>\n\nQuestion: **Prior to 2030, will fewer than 10 social science papers use the size of losslessly compressed data as the model selection criterion among <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macrosociology\">macrosociology</a> models? **\n\nA paper is counted toward resolution if it satisfies *all* of the following:\n\n 1. It compares at least 2 macrosociology models by the degree to which they have losslessly compressed the same dataset.\n\n 2. It has the keywords \"macrosociology\" or \"macroeconomic\" or some obvious derivation of these such as \"macrosocial\" or \"macroeconomics\".\n\n 3. It defines \"size\" as the length of the decompression program plus the length of the compressed data. The salient characteristic of \"length\" is that it be measured in bits. i.e. the combination serves as a <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-extracting_archive\">self-extracting archive</a> of the dataset and may, indeed, be measured in that unified form. This definition of \"size\" is used to award cash in <a href=\"http://prize.hutter1.net/hrules.htm\">The Hutter Prize for Lossless Compression of Human Knowledge</a> and is also used as a <a href=\"https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-hutter-prize\">a language modeling benchmark</a>. \n\n 4. It defines a runtime environment affording all competing models the same algorithmic resources. e.g. it produces the original dataset using the same virtual machine a.k.a. a Universal Turing Machine environment.\n\n 5. It is included in the <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Sciences_Citation_Index\">Social Sciences Citation Index</a>.\n\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Social Sciences Citation Index is discontinued prior to the above criteria being met.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3215, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1605868989.101708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1605868989.101708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5710656771582757 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08235174299721564, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0271142729025974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6604589055537916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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Biden also represented Delaware in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2009. A member of the Democratic Party, Biden is a candidate for president in the 2020 election ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden)).\n\n**Will Joe Biden be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for the President of the United States?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if the Democratic Party officially recognizes (via press release, or any public statement made by official spokespeople or leadership figures of the Democratic Party) that Joe Biden is the Nominee of their party for the office of President of the United States in the 2020 election cycle.\n\nBiden need not be the Democratic Party Candidate on the date of the Presidential Election for this question to resolve positively; he merely needs to become the official Democratic Party Nominee at some point. A nomination for the office of Vice President shall not suffice for a positive resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3198, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1583984688.690964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1583984688.690964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8995343672762329 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0014847040918971278, 0.0007337994906081314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005224294002557514, 0.0, 0.00038948917897070796, 0.001804608114622688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008434650441251615, 0.00034820468109054845, 0.0009978549364353644, 0.00028729040435482084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000798624726307763, 0.30761418857142087, 0.00015057093541874901, 8.473036018926035e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 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"resolution_criteria": "It's been a while since we've had a nice, old-fashioned SpaceX rocket question. But Musk has been touting a new giant stainless steel Starship prototype, with plans that\n\n> In just one to two months, SpaceX will launch the Starship Mk1 up to a height of approximately 65,000 feet (20 kilometers) before returning to Earth and landing.\n\n*So*, given a 2x time dilation, we'll ask:\n\n*** by 00:00:01 UTC February 1, 2020, will SpaceX launch a Starship test vehicle? ***\n\nBy launch we specify that the vehicle attains a height of at least 100 m. The vehicle must be made predominantly of stainless steel and be at least 40m in height. It need not land successfully (though we could launch a short-fuse question to that as the launch gets closer.). 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Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n\n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\n\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\n\n**Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?**\n\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3159, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699381060.379798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 197, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699381060.379798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 197, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9467912051917609 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.028556075576896718, 4.9548269505771175e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009515461015417514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03644818730175165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016809779034163898, 0.02745073490999273, 0.04385104483435469, 0.019522963141105708, 0.016970538559134985, 0.0, 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"user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "π¬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "π", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "β¨π", "type": "topic" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3158, "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?", "created_at": "2019-10-02T16:34:53.985110Z", "open_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-10-21T02:54:42.797811Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-10-21T02:54:42.797811Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2500-01-01T17:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2500-01-01T17:08:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2500-01-01T17:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\n\nBut life could take many forms:\n\n* Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry).\n* Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star\\*).\n* Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)).\n* Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff *somehow* consistently implementing a sentient computation).\n\nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the first, verified alive alien life-forms that are encountered by humans needs less than 1% of their atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. They can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be less than 1% of the life-form and the life-form still be alive.\n\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \\[My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.]", "fine_print": "* The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life.\n* If multiple life-forms are encountered simultaneously, the simplest ones will be considered for resolution\n* If there is no consensus in the scientific community, Metaculus might wait until there is to resolve this question.\n* If no extra-terrestial life-form is found before January 1, 2500, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 3158, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760140216.945825, "end_time": 3086930840.110025, "forecaster_count": 250, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760140216.945825, "end_time": 3086930840.110025, "forecaster_count": 250, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7950336499784602 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.45928152051957927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5739871718111558e-06, 0.47479643365959256, 3.889930976414875e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002323701347913172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08149174068232813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3280957330453327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049993149397301914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00783687351459076, 0.021213286800668352, 0.0, 0.00031421860864250115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9540489914960361, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006979350189998429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7067953919642308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021115479402343906, 0.0, 0.0004050952631584474, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7102385709947423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0210843318543016, 0.0, 0.8845592880213333, 0.20436303216644458, 0.01707596414056181, 8.866479895994751e-05, 0.36894102450194505, 0.21343208675831693, 0.2182358402588459, 0.1460804872036518, 0.0012596044770560226, 0.0700572956196737, 1.3834823821180593, 0.35798113463697867, 0.001998419627957132, 0.014783278671469356, 0.10574462026045355, 2.887224105756842, 0.5209099671957386, 0.9369746592124655, 0.27654113897362786, 0.518846530052947, 1.1771359907496268, 2.0468131031103893, 0.034324053415680136, 0.0011011630926384425, 0.15034985121863592, 3.026641666466647, 0.36288199783914793, 0.08796318413123544, 0.7850724686063637, 0.0, 4.056420735195987, 0.02463851796156109, 0.7975363082757051, 0.11518358968514286, 3.511901209855904 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286867.517513, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 237, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286867.517513, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 237, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.23888852409607286, 0.7611114759039271 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 51, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 505, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\n\nBut life could take many forms:\n\n* Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry).\n* Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star\\*).\n* Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)).\n* Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff *somehow* consistently implementing a sentient computation).\n\nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space." }, { "id": 3150, "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?", "short_title": "No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations before 2035", "url_title": "No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations before 2035", "slug": "no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-before-2035", "author_id": 110540, "author_username": "randallburns", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-09-29T07:46:38.359859Z", "published_at": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T04:15:15.755368Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 176, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "β£οΈ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "β’οΈ", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3150, "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?", "created_at": "2019-09-29T07:46:38.359859Z", "open_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-10-09T16:52:22.308541Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-10-09T16:52:22.308541Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:46:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:46:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\n\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n\n- Deliberate nuclear attack.\n\n- Accidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n\n- Accidental detonation of a weapon.\n\n- Nuclear terrorism.\n\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon β where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives β to constitute a nuclear detonation.\n\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) *do not* trigger negative resolution.\n\n<small>\nSee our related question [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/)\n</small", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3150, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763249412.694112, "end_time": 1767118561.957866, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763249412.694112, "end_time": 1767118561.957866, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7463864736693305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.03082100832721133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009992587649107681, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008710765581498546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14236214466985742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002694916038571455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004318897872090119, 0.00018687652294719, 0.542367534830586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.054172641998675115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48433830154116286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6635833793727117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15811529714383432, 0.13074451650466312, 0.0, 0.9181115929699587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4467597112816668, 0.0, 0.008073752635453043, 0.05275289456574447, 0.5672244280106853, 1.3528072001508553, 0.025095107399378088, 0.06409812770382904, 0.03830944719212202, 0.00016993845990146295, 1.1945310349668827, 0.4904823614335067, 0.2579381944749217, 0.6956205171532075, 0.0, 2.3523880743528656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008040330216258098, 1.535881003508762, 0.0, 0.02533407606677297, 0.3593225486349003, 0.6412871353179233, 0.8325299189880502, 0.9366791280985248, 0.5185060318758544, 0.09653229000977717, 0.2976948317770988, 0.26294147651723687, 0.2465678037032058, 0.09892839311609887, 0.28673540004391374, 0.6200764792718979, 1.3080319954819148, 0.07158236420603267, 0.20225470263426842, 0.4128959588929793, 1.5513705055451044 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289175.226089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289175.226089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.27057693474129874, 0.7294230652587013 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 29, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 472, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\n\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come." } ] }