Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=560
{ "count": 6280, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=580", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=540", "results": [ { "id": 39175, "title": "Will Pensacola adopt a citywide resilience plan by December 31, 2026?", "short_title": "Pensacola Resilience Plan by 2026?", "url_title": "Pensacola Resilience Plan by 2026?", "slug": "pensacola-resilience-plan-by-2026", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-17T20:29:16.403352Z", "published_at": "2025-08-17T20:29:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.410479Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:03:22.099611Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38517, "title": "Will Pensacola adopt a citywide resilience plan by December 31, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-17T20:29:16.403821Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-31T20:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As climate change accelerates and extreme weather events become more frequent, coastal cities like Pensacola face mounting challenges that demand comprehensive planning. From Hurricane Sally's devastating impact in 2020 to ongoing concerns about sea level rise, flooding, and economic vulnerability, the need for a coordinated resilience strategy has never been clearer.\n\n**What is a Resilience Plan?**\n\nA resilience plan is a comprehensive framework that helps cities prepare for, respond to, and recover from various shocks and stresses. These plans typically address:\n- Climate adaptation and mitigation strategies\n- Infrastructure improvements and green infrastructure\n- Economic diversification and workforce development\n- Social equity and community engagement\n- Emergency preparedness and response systems\n- Housing resilience and affordability\n- Public health preparedness\n\n**The Current Landscape in Pensacola**\n\nWhile Pensacola has taken some steps toward resilience:\n- The city has a Hazard Mitigation Plan focused on natural disasters\n- Various departments work on sustainability initiatives\n- The CivicCon speaker series has featured resilience experts\n- Community organizations advocate for climate action\n\nHowever, these efforts remain fragmented without an overarching resilience framework to coordinate them.\n\n**Why This Matters Now**\n\nSeveral factors make 2025-2026 a critical window for resilience planning:\n\n1. **Increasing Climate Risks**: NOAA projects continued sea level rise and more intense hurricanes affecting the Gulf Coast. Pensacola has experienced significant flooding events, and climate models suggest these will become more frequent.\n\n2. **Federal Funding Opportunities**: The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act have made billions available for resilience projects, but many grants require or prioritize cities with formal resilience plans.\n\n3. **Regional Competition**: Other Florida cities have moved ahead:\n - Miami has a Chief Resilience Officer and comprehensive plan\n - St. Petersburg adopted its Integrated Sustainability Action Plan\n - Orlando created its Future-Ready City Master Plan\n - Tampa Bay has a regional resilience coalition\n\n4. **Economic Imperatives**: Credit rating agencies now factor climate resilience into municipal bond ratings. Insurance costs continue rising for properties in vulnerable areas without mitigation strategies.\n\n**What Would a Pensacola Resilience Plan Include?**\n\nBased on best practices from other coastal cities, a comprehensive plan would likely address:\n\n- **Coastal Protection**: Nature-based solutions like living shorelines, dune restoration, and oyster reef development\n- **Stormwater Management**: Green infrastructure, permeable surfaces, and improved drainage systems\n- **Building Standards**: Updated codes for wind resistance, elevation requirements, and flood-resistant construction\n- **Economic Resilience**: Diversification strategies, workforce retraining, and support for climate-adapted industries\n- **Social Equity**: Ensuring vulnerable populations have access to cooling centers, evacuation resources, and recovery assistance\n- **Energy Systems**: Microgrids, renewable energy, and backup power for critical facilities\n- **Transportation**: Elevated roads, alternative evacuation routes, and resilient public transit\n\n**The Path Forward**\n\nCities typically develop resilience plans through:\n1. Forming a resilience task force or hiring a Chief Resilience Officer\n2. Conducting vulnerability assessments\n3. Engaging community stakeholders through workshops and surveys\n4. Developing strategies with measurable goals\n5. Formal adoption by city council\n6. Implementation with regular progress monitoring\n\n**Challenges and Opportunities**\n\nPotential obstacles include:\n- Limited city budget and staff capacity\n- Political disagreements about climate action\n- Competing priorities for city resources\n- Need for regional coordination\n\nHowever, opportunities exist through:\n- Growing public awareness after recent hurricanes\n- Available federal and state grant funding\n- University partnerships (UWF, PSC)\n- Business community interest in protecting investments\n- Military installation resilience needs (NAS Pensacola)\n\n**The Stakes**\n\nWithout a resilience plan, Pensacola risks:\n- Missing out on competitive grant funding\n- Higher insurance costs and lower bond ratings\n- Continued vulnerability to climate impacts\n- Loss of residents and businesses to more prepared cities\n- Reactive rather than proactive disaster spending\n\nWith a plan, the city could:\n- Access millions in implementation funding\n- Reduce long-term costs through proactive investment\n- Attract climate-conscious residents and businesses\n- Protect vulnerable communities\n- Preserve Pensacola's historic character and natural assets", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve based on the formal adoption of a comprehensive citywide resilience plan by the Pensacola City Council.\n\n**What Qualifies as a \"Citywide Resilience Plan\":**\n\nThe plan must meet ALL of the following criteria:\n\n1. **Comprehensive Scope**: Addresses at least 5 of these 8 areas:\n - Climate adaptation/mitigation\n - Infrastructure resilience\n - Economic resilience\n - Social equity/community resilience\n - Emergency management/disaster preparedness\n - Housing resilience\n - Public health preparedness\n - Environmental/ecosystem resilience\n\n2. **Formal Adoption**: Officially adopted by Pensacola City Council through:\n - Council resolution OR\n - Ordinance OR\n - Formal vote to approve the plan\n\n3. **Citywide Coverage**: Must cover the entire City of Pensacola (not just specific neighborhoods or sectors)\n\n4. **Strategic Framework**: Must include:\n - Identified goals or objectives\n - Proposed actions or strategies\n - Some form of implementation timeline or framework\n\n**What Does NOT Qualify:**\n- Departmental plans (unless adopted as citywide policy)\n- Studies or assessments without implementation strategies\n- Grant applications or proposals\n- Regional plans unless formally adopted by Pensacola\n- Updates to existing narrow-scope plans (like just hazard mitigation)\n- Draft plans that haven't been formally adopted\n\n**Acceptable Plan Titles:**\nThe plan may be called any of the following (or similar):\n- Resilience Plan/Strategy/Framework\n- Climate Action and Resilience Plan\n- Comprehensive Resilience Plan\n- Sustainability and Resilience Plan\n- Climate Adaptation Plan (if comprehensive)\n- Integrated Resilience Strategy\n\n**Data Sources for Resolution:**\nPrimary sources (in order of preference):\n1. Official Pensacola City Council meeting minutes/records\n2. City of Pensacola official website/press releases\n3. Local news coverage with official confirmation\n4. Florida League of Cities or similar organization databases\n\n**Resolution Date:**\n- **YES** if a qualifying plan is formally adopted by 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2026\n- **NO** if no qualifying plan is adopted by this deadline\n\n**Edge Cases:**\n- If the city is in the process of adopting a plan but hasn't completed formal adoption by the deadline: Resolves NO\n- If multiple plans together meet the criteria but aren't integrated: Resolves NO unless council adopts them as a unified resilience strategy\n- If Pensacola merges with Escambia County before resolution: Resolves AMBIGUOUS\n- If the plan is adopted but immediately repealed before Dec 31, 2026: Resolves NO", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39175, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As climate change accelerates and extreme weather events become more frequent, coastal cities like Pensacola face mounting challenges that demand comprehensive planning. From Hurricane Sally's devastating impact in 2020 to ongoing concerns about sea level rise, flooding, and economic vulnerability, the need for a coordinated resilience strategy has never been clearer.\n\n**What is a Resilience Plan?**\n\nA resilience plan is a comprehensive framework that helps cities prepare for, respond to, and recover from various shocks and stresses. These plans typically address:\n- Climate adaptation and mitigation strategies\n- Infrastructure improvements and green infrastructure\n- Economic diversification and workforce development\n- Social equity and community engagement\n- Emergency preparedness and response systems\n- Housing resilience and affordability\n- Public health preparedness\n\n**The Current Landscape in Pensacola**\n\nWhile Pensacola has taken some steps toward resilience:\n- The city has a Hazard Mitigation Plan focused on natural disasters\n- Various departments work on sustainability initiatives\n- The CivicCon speaker series has featured resilience experts\n- Community organizations advocate for climate action\n\nHowever, these efforts remain fragmented without an overarching resilience framework to coordinate them.\n\n**Why This Matters Now**\n\nSeveral factors make 2025-2026 a critical window for resilience planning:\n\n1. **Increasing Climate Risks**: NOAA projects continued sea level rise and more intense hurricanes affecting the Gulf Coast. Pensacola has experienced significant flooding events, and climate models suggest these will become more frequent.\n\n2. **Federal Funding Opportunities**: The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act have made billions available for resilience projects, but many grants require or prioritize cities with formal resilience plans.\n\n3. **Regional Competition**: Other Florida cities have moved ahead:\n - Miami has a Chief Resilience Officer and comprehensive plan\n - St. Petersburg adopted its Integrated Sustainability Action Plan\n - Orlando created its Future-Ready City Master Plan\n - Tampa Bay has a regional resilience coalition\n\n4. **Economic Imperatives**: Credit rating agencies now factor climate resilience into municipal bond ratings. Insurance costs continue rising for properties in vulnerable areas without mitigation strategies.\n\n**What Would a Pensacola Resilience Plan Include?**\n\nBased on best practices from other coastal cities, a comprehensive plan would likely address:\n\n- **Coastal Protection**: Nature-based solutions like living shorelines, dune restoration, and oyster reef development\n- **Stormwater Management**: Green infrastructure, permeable surfaces, and improved drainage systems\n- **Building Standards**: Updated codes for wind resistance, elevation requirements, and flood-resistant construction\n- **Economic Resilience**: Diversification strategies, workforce retraining, and support for climate-adapted industries\n- **Social Equity**: Ensuring vulnerable populations have access to cooling centers, evacuation resources, and recovery assistance\n- **Energy Systems**: Microgrids, renewable energy, and backup power for critical facilities\n- **Transportation**: Elevated roads, alternative evacuation routes, and resilient public transit\n\n**The Path Forward**\n\nCities typically develop resilience plans through:\n1. Forming a resilience task force or hiring a Chief Resilience Officer\n2. Conducting vulnerability assessments\n3. Engaging community stakeholders through workshops and surveys\n4. Developing strategies with measurable goals\n5. Formal adoption by city council\n6. Implementation with regular progress monitoring\n\n**Challenges and Opportunities**\n\nPotential obstacles include:\n- Limited city budget and staff capacity\n- Political disagreements about climate action\n- Competing priorities for city resources\n- Need for regional coordination\n\nHowever, opportunities exist through:\n- Growing public awareness after recent hurricanes\n- Available federal and state grant funding\n- University partnerships (UWF, PSC)\n- Business community interest in protecting investments\n- Military installation resilience needs (NAS Pensacola)\n\n**The Stakes**\n\nWithout a resilience plan, Pensacola risks:\n- Missing out on competitive grant funding\n- Higher insurance costs and lower bond ratings\n- Continued vulnerability to climate impacts\n- Loss of residents and businesses to more prepared cities\n- Reactive rather than proactive disaster spending\n\nWith a plan, the city could:\n- Access millions in implementation funding\n- Reduce long-term costs through proactive investment\n- Attract climate-conscious residents and businesses\n- Protect vulnerable communities\n- Preserve Pensacola's historic character and natural assets" }, { "id": 39174, "title": "Will Phase 1 of the Hollice T. Williams Greenway in Pensacola, Florida, open for regular public access by July 1, 2027?", "short_title": "Will Phase 1 of the Hollice T. Williams Greenway open for regular public access", "url_title": "Will Phase 1 of the Hollice T. Williams Greenway open for regular public access", "slug": "will-phase-1-of-the-hollice-t-williams-greenway-open-for-regular-public-access", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-17T20:10:02.902471Z", "published_at": "2025-08-17T20:10:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.436539Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-17T20:10:42.204674Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-07-17T18:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-07-18T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-30T20:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38516, "title": "Will Phase 1 of the Hollice T. Williams Greenway in Pensacola, Florida, open for regular public access by July 1, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-17T20:10:02.902936Z", "open_time": "2025-08-30T20:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-30T20:10:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-07-17T18:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-07-18T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-07-17T18:09:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-07-17T18:09:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## Background\n\nThe Hollice T. Williams Greenway is a major urban green infrastructure and recreation project in Pensacola, Florida, highlighted as a top priority in the city’s Strive to Thrive: Pensacola 2035 strategic plan (see especially Executive Summary and Implementation sections). Phase 1 will create a continuous public green spine anchored by upgraded stormwater features, trails, and community gathering spaces, with the Blake Doyle Skatepark as a key anchor.\n\n## Relevant Links and Resources\n\n* [City’s official Hollice T. Williams Park & Greenway project page](https://www.cityofpensacola.com/CivicSend/ViewMessage/Message/257114)\n* [HTW Pensacola master plan and project booklet (PDF)](https://htwpensacola.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/HTW-2045-Visioning-Plan-Booklet.pdf)\n* [Recent public engagement update (April 2025) – City unveiling Greenway vision](https://www.cityofpensacola.com/CivicSend/ViewMessage/Message/257114)\n* [Local news on stormwater park progress and grant funding](https://www.cityofpensacola.com/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=4573)\n\n## Notes\n\n* For context on phase boundaries and project definition, see official materials from the city and the HTW project booklet above.\n* This question tracks a high-profile milestone in Pensacola’s community infrastructure, with both environmental (stormwater) and recreational (multi-use path/park) components.\n\n## Key Supporting News & Project Updates\n\n**Design Completion:**\nThe final Phase 1 design is scheduled for completion by mid-2027, with construction expected to begin in early 2026 to meet grant deadlines and utilize funding on schedule.\n[HTW Pensacola master plan and project booklet (PDF of 2045 Vision)](https://htwpensacola.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/HTW-2045-Visioning-Plan-Booklet.pdf)\n\n**Public Engagement:**\nCommunity engagement sessions in spring and summer 2025 have refined the design and vision for the greenway; the schedule remains on track and public feedback has been largely positive.\n[City to Unveil Vision Plan for Hollice T. Williams Park (April 2025)](https://www.cityofpensacola.com/CivicSend/ViewMessage/Message/257114)\n[City of Pensacola to Unveil Vision Plan for Hollice T. Williams Park Next Week (City news, April 2025)](https://www.cityofpensacola.com/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=4636\\&ARC=5242)\n\n**City Council Actions:**\nThe Pensacola City Council formally accepted the redevelopment and improvement plan for the Hollice T. Williams Park in late 2024, moving the project into the execution phase.\n[Pensacola city council votes to accept redevelopment plan (WEAR TV, Nov 2024)](https://weartv.com/news/local/pensacola-city-council-votes-to-accept-redevelopment-plan-for-hollice-t-williams-park)\n\n**Design Plans Unveiled:**\nDetailed design plans for the revamped park and greenway were publicly released in April 2025, outlining the scope, timeline, and community impact of Phase 1.\n[Pensacola unveils design plans for revamped Hollice T. Williams Park (WEAR TV, April 2025)](https://weartv.com/news/local/gallery-pensacola-unveils-design-plans-for-revamped-hollice-t-williams-park)\n\n**Funding:**\nPensacola secured a \\$5M U.S. DOT grant and other funding commitments for the stormwater park development and greenway enhancements, eliminating major financial uncertainties for Phase 1.\n[Pensacola awarded \\$5M U.S. DOT grant for stormwater park development](https://weartv.com/news/local/pensacola-awarded-5m-grant-for-hollice-t-williams-stormwater-park-development)\n\n**Official Project Page and Ongoing Updates:**\nThe city and project organizers maintain up-to-date resources and schedules, providing regular progress reports and engagement updates.\n[Official project page and vision plan updates](https://htwpensacola.com/about/)\n\n**Public Design Events:**\nPublic kickoff meetings and workshops have helped shape priorities and clarify project milestones, including Phase 1’s timeline and scope.\n[Hollice T. Williams Park Redesign Kickoff Meeting - YouTube (Feb 2025)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWOMkVrQzho)\n\n## [](https://weartv.com/news/local/pensacola-city-council-votes-to-accept-redevelopment-plan-for-hollice-t-williams-park)", "resolution_criteria": "* “Open for regular public access” is defined as: The majority of the new greenway path, streetscape, and park facilities intended for Phase 1 are accessible to the general public (not temporarily closed for construction), and there is a public announcement by city or county officials declaring the opening.\n* “Phase 1” is as explicitly defined by official city or project communications, typically covering the area from the Blake Doyle Skatepark to the initial north-south multi-use path elements and key stormwater improvements.\n* If substantial delays occur preventing opening to the public until after July 1, 2027, this resolves NO.\n* YES: Clear and credible public documentation (such as a city press release, news report, or official city meeting transcript) confirms regular public access for the new Phase 1 segment by or before July 1, 2027.\n* NO: If by July 1, 2027, most of Phase 1 is still closed to the public for construction, or if only ceremonial or very limited access is available, or there is no public announcement of an opening.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39174, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## Background\n\nThe Hollice T. Williams Greenway is a major urban green infrastructure and recreation project in Pensacola, Florida, highlighted as a top priority in the city’s Strive to Thrive: Pensacola 2035 strategic plan (see especially Executive Summary and Implementation sections). Phase 1 will create a continuous public green spine anchored by upgraded stormwater features, trails, and community gathering spaces, with the Blake Doyle Skatepark as a key anchor.\n\n## Relevant Links and Resources\n\n* [City’s official Hollice T. Williams Park & Greenway project page](https://www.cityofpensacola.com/CivicSend/ViewMessage/Message/257114)\n* [HTW Pensacola master plan and project booklet (PDF)](https://htwpensacola.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/HTW-2045-Visioning-Plan-Booklet.pdf)\n* [Recent public engagement update (April 2025) – City unveiling Greenway vision](https://www.cityofpensacola.com/CivicSend/ViewMessage/Message/257114)\n* [Local news on stormwater park progress and grant funding](https://www.cityofpensacola.com/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=4573)\n\n## Notes\n\n* For context on phase boundaries and project definition, see official materials from the city and the HTW project booklet above.\n* This question tracks a high-profile milestone in Pensacola’s community infrastructure, with both environmental (stormwater) and recreational (multi-use path/park) components.\n\n## Key Supporting News & Project Updates\n\n**Design Completion:**\nThe final Phase 1 design is scheduled for completion by mid-2027, with construction expected to begin in early 2026 to meet grant deadlines and utilize funding on schedule.\n[HTW Pensacola master plan and project booklet (PDF of 2045 Vision)](https://htwpensacola.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/HTW-2045-Visioning-Plan-Booklet.pdf)\n\n**Public Engagement:**\nCommunity engagement sessions in spring and summer 2025 have refined the design and vision for the greenway; the schedule remains on track and public feedback has been largely positive.\n[City to Unveil Vision Plan for Hollice T. Williams Park (April 2025)](https://www.cityofpensacola.com/CivicSend/ViewMessage/Message/257114)\n[City of Pensacola to Unveil Vision Plan for Hollice T. Williams Park Next Week (City news, April 2025)](https://www.cityofpensacola.com/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=4636\\&ARC=5242)\n\n**City Council Actions:**\nThe Pensacola City Council formally accepted the redevelopment and improvement plan for the Hollice T. Williams Park in late 2024, moving the project into the execution phase.\n[Pensacola city council votes to accept redevelopment plan (WEAR TV, Nov 2024)](https://weartv.com/news/local/pensacola-city-council-votes-to-accept-redevelopment-plan-for-hollice-t-williams-park)\n\n**Design Plans Unveiled:**\nDetailed design plans for the revamped park and greenway were publicly released in April 2025, outlining the scope, timeline, and community impact of Phase 1.\n[Pensacola unveils design plans for revamped Hollice T. Williams Park (WEAR TV, April 2025)](https://weartv.com/news/local/gallery-pensacola-unveils-design-plans-for-revamped-hollice-t-williams-park)\n\n**Funding:**\nPensacola secured a \\$5M U.S. DOT grant and other funding commitments for the stormwater park development and greenway enhancements, eliminating major financial uncertainties for Phase 1.\n[Pensacola awarded \\$5M U.S. DOT grant for stormwater park development](https://weartv.com/news/local/pensacola-awarded-5m-grant-for-hollice-t-williams-stormwater-park-development)\n\n**Official Project Page and Ongoing Updates:**\nThe city and project organizers maintain up-to-date resources and schedules, providing regular progress reports and engagement updates.\n[Official project page and vision plan updates](https://htwpensacola.com/about/)\n\n**Public Design Events:**\nPublic kickoff meetings and workshops have helped shape priorities and clarify project milestones, including Phase 1’s timeline and scope.\n[Hollice T. Williams Park Redesign Kickoff Meeting - YouTube (Feb 2025)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWOMkVrQzho)\n\n## [](https://weartv.com/news/local/pensacola-city-council-votes-to-accept-redevelopment-plan-for-hollice-t-williams-park)" }, { "id": 39173, "title": "Before 2035, will the major science funding agencies NIH and NSF require formal reporting of AI involvement in research outputs as a condition of funding?", "short_title": "By 2035, will NIH, ERC, NSF, or Horizon require AI use reporting in grants?", "url_title": "By 2035, will NIH, ERC, NSF, or Horizon require AI use reporting in grants?", "slug": "by-2035-will-nih-erc-nsf-or-horizon-require-ai-use-reporting-in-grants", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-17T11:55:42.014744Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:42:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:01:34.839366Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:43:08.269609Z", "comment_count": 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"2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:38:11.835400Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.350300Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38515, "title": "Before 2035, will the major science funding agencies NIH and NSF require formal reporting of AI involvement in research outputs as a condition of funding?", "created_at": "2025-08-17T11:55:42.015190Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThe Tool AI Scenario charts a plausible course toward a future where AI tools amplify human potential rather than replacing humans. It examines whether AI will become the primary driver of scientific discovery in biology and chemistry.\n\nIn the Tool AI scenario, researchers rely heavily on AI to generate hypotheses, simulate experiments, and explore new scientific pathways. A majority of top-cited discoveries being AI-enabled would support the scenario’s vision of AI as a core scientific collaborator. According to the [scenario report](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/the-tool-ai-2035-scenario-essay/), looking back on how history played out from 2025 to 2035:\n\n> Standardized reproducibility mandates: Funders and journals began requiring deposition of AI models and their machine-readable epistemic metadata as a condition of publication. This created an interoperable, auditable global research ecosystem, making it possible to verify results and trace ideas back to source data.\n\n> A new IP regime for AI-assisted discovery: Legal and economic frameworks adapted to handle attribution and intellectual property when discoveries were co-generated by humans and AI tools. This shifted incentives toward open collaboration and away from proprietary hoarding, especially for foundational scientific results.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the National Science Foundation (NSF) have implemented agency-wide requirements for funded researchers to formally disclose AI involvement in the researchers' outputs, with enforcement mechanisms for non-compliance.", "fine_print": "In order to count, NIH and NSF must use mandatory language for its grants (typically using terminology such as *must*, *shall* or *required* in its award terms and conditions) requiring grant awardees to disclose any AI contributions to research output, which could include (but is not limited to) data analysis, editing code, or drafting research papers. In the event of any ambiguity, the question asked should be whether the funding is conditional upon the requirement and whether non-compliance will affect the award.\n\nThis question resolves based upon the effectiveness date of the requirements rather than the announcement. Thus, if both agencies have an announced policy before 2035 that would count, but at least one of their policies does not go into force before 2035, then the question will resolve the question as **No**.\n\nBans on certain AI uses would not by themselves count, without disclosure requirements as described above. \n\nIf AI disclosure requirements are implemented and then rescinded, the question still resolves as Yes if both agencies have requirements at the same time at any point. ", "post_id": 39173, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762243284.553625, "end_time": 1785216302.856, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762243284.553625, "end_time": 1785216302.856, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6100924213982609 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2168121871892493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19512018820526095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02413454259583943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2403700099395794, 0.0, 0.5128863128011775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05724278302464458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030314528419522604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0463983041165659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.03598851855808508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46916959902833105, 0.0, 0.11064264398533052, 0.08615804177817497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3463879525254683, 0.0, 0.04232921962320499, 0.12469124550422711, 0.0, 0.02075297689962095, 1.2750855450025855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9014171667930544, 0.07555473386203065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3447403935363167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025253159325845955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06594039540813919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.539624135958379 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThe Tool AI Scenario charts a plausible course toward a future where AI tools amplify human potential rather than replacing humans. It examines whether AI will become the primary driver of scientific discovery in biology and chemistry.\n\nIn the Tool AI scenario, researchers rely heavily on AI to generate hypotheses, simulate experiments, and explore new scientific pathways. A majority of top-cited discoveries being AI-enabled would support the scenario’s vision of AI as a core scientific collaborator. According to the [scenario report](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/the-tool-ai-2035-scenario-essay/), looking back on how history played out from 2025 to 2035:\n\n> Standardized reproducibility mandates: Funders and journals began requiring deposition of AI models and their machine-readable epistemic metadata as a condition of publication. This created an interoperable, auditable global research ecosystem, making it possible to verify results and trace ideas back to source data.\n\n> A new IP regime for AI-assisted discovery: Legal and economic frameworks adapted to handle attribution and intellectual property when discoveries were co-generated by humans and AI tools. This shifted incentives toward open collaboration and away from proprietary hoarding, especially for foundational scientific results.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)" }, { "id": 39171, "title": "Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?", "short_title": "By 2030, will banks offer $10B+ regulated DeFi yields with protections?", "url_title": "By 2030, will banks offer $10B+ regulated DeFi yields with protections?", "slug": "by-2030-will-banks-offer-10b-regulated-defi-yields-with-protections", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-16T23:06:40.869210Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:41:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:06:47.958501Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:42:45.483571Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, 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"tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32820, "type": "question_series", "name": "The D/acc Pathway", "slug": "daccai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_DlOLUEN.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T16:40:58.506550Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:11:17.942957Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38513, "title": "Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?", "created_at": "2025-08-16T23:06:40.869618Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n\n> *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n\n***\n\nThe d/acc scenario envisions \"TradFi-DeFi\" integration (traditional finance and [decentralized finance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decentralized_finance)) as a key mechanism enabling broader participation in decentralized finance while preserving consumer protections. This represents a critical test of whether decentralized financial systems can achieve mainstream adoption through gradual integration rather than wholesale replacement of traditional institutions. Currently, DeFi offers significantly higher yields (4-15%+ APY) compared to traditional savings accounts (\\~2-5%), but lacks consumer protections that make traditional banking trustworthy for mainstream users. Achieving \\$10B in regulated, protected DeFi products would signal that the technical, regulatory, and risk management challenges have been solved at scale, validating the d/acc premise that decentralized and centralized systems can be productively hybridized rather than remaining in competition. This milestone would demonstrate institutional confidence in DeFi's maturity and regulatory frameworks' ability to adapt to decentralized financial innovation.\n\nFor more, visit: [<u>AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, 3 or more of the top 50 regulated traditional banks offer a regulated decentralized finance (DeFi) yield product while maintaining at least two of these three consumer protections:\n\n1. Deposit Insurance: Principal protected by government-backed insurance (FDIC, FSCS, equivalent deposit guarantee schemes)\n2. Fraud/Error Recourse: Clear, legally binding process for disputing transactions and recovering funds from fraud or technical errors, comparable to traditional banking protections\n3. Liquidity Guarantees: Bank guarantees customer ability to withdraw funds within standard timeframes (e.g., settlement within 2 business days under normal conditions)\n\nTop 50 banks are those that rank in the top 50 globally by total assets according to [LexisNexis](https://risk.lexisnexis.com/insights-resources/article/bank-rankings-top-banks-in-the-world)[ ](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/5/50-largest-us-banks-by-total-assets-q1-2025-89121851)or, if that is unavailable, another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nDeFi yield products for purposes of this question means they must allocate customer assets via smart contracts to protocols on public, permissionless blockchains (e.g., Ethereum/L2s, Solana) in order to offer on-chain returns such as lending interest, staking rewards, liquidity-provision fees, or protocol incentive distributions. Products that simply custody crypto assets without yield generation do not qualify. ", "fine_print": "Yield must actually derive from DeFi protocols, not a bank's own lending activities.\n\nProducts must meet all of the following:\n\n1. Explicit DeFi Integration: Marketed as deriving returns from DeFi protocols (lending platforms like Aave/Compound, staking services like Lido, yield farming, liquidity provision)\n2. Retail Accessibility: Available to individual consumers, not just institutional clients\n3. Direct Bank Offering: Product issued directly by the bank, not merely facilitating access to third-party DeFi services", "post_id": 39171, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762243597.418052, "end_time": 1768223576.271, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762243597.418052, "end_time": 1768223576.271, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3825271302010333 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.20446261866678814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26062550643238924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11083038735431396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04171983066671895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7986028953533055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061894126969327355, 0.27114422392158133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7156252243468648, 0.02678127518047141, 0.0, 0.22518626811013776, 0.0, 0.08576229363305161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01917969985736262, 0.0, 0.6825581576219208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0852984520700103, 0.8614998454466418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047065967472563, 0.0, 2.3035255586236962, 1.1717567222253988, 0.0, 0.7396417846986983, 0.0, 0.022769576841270445, 0.0, 0.4573391763706963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16520991005120123, 0.010606778452136844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4131151026588456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6844047848430631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4242472065035229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030815271309911525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015977422099957932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n\n> *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n\n***\n\nThe d/acc scenario envisions \"TradFi-DeFi\" integration (traditional finance and [decentralized finance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decentralized_finance)) as a key mechanism enabling broader participation in decentralized finance while preserving consumer protections. This represents a critical test of whether decentralized financial systems can achieve mainstream adoption through gradual integration rather than wholesale replacement of traditional institutions. Currently, DeFi offers significantly higher yields (4-15%+ APY) compared to traditional savings accounts (\\~2-5%), but lacks consumer protections that make traditional banking trustworthy for mainstream users. Achieving \\$10B in regulated, protected DeFi products would signal that the technical, regulatory, and risk management challenges have been solved at scale, validating the d/acc premise that decentralized and centralized systems can be productively hybridized rather than remaining in competition. This milestone would demonstrate institutional confidence in DeFi's maturity and regulatory frameworks' ability to adapt to decentralized financial innovation.\n\nFor more, visit: [<u>AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)" }, { "id": 39170, "title": "Before January 1, 2031, will a unified digital identity protocol enable interaction with at least three different governance frameworks (financial, legal, and civic)?", "short_title": "Before Jan 1, 2031, will one digital ID work for finance, legal, and civic use?", "url_title": "Before Jan 1, 2031, will one digital ID work for finance, legal, and civic use?", "slug": "before-jan-1-2031-will-one-digital-id-work-for-finance-legal-and-civic-use", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-16T22:19:07.793364Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:41:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:08:43.904500Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32820, "type": "question_series", "name": "The D/acc Pathway", "slug": "daccai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_DlOLUEN.png", 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"2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question, written by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/)*, explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n\n> *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n\n***\n\nThe d/acc scenario envisions individuals managing \"identity stacks\" across multiple overlapping governance systems while maintaining agency and portability. This represents a critical infrastructure requirement: without unified digital identity, the jurisdictional complexity described in d/acc becomes cognitively overwhelming and practically unmanageable. Currently, participation in decentralized finance (DeFi), [decentralized autonomous organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decentralized_autonomous_organization) (DAO) governance, and legal systems requires separate accounts, credentials, and reputation building. A unified protocol would enable the \"jurisdictional routers\" described in the d/acc vision, allowing individuals to seamlessly navigate between governance frameworks based on their preferences and needs. Success would validate that decentralized systems can achieve interoperability without sacrificing user sovereignty, while failure would suggest that the d/acc future remains fragmented across incompatible digital silos, limiting the practical benefits of competitive governance.\n\nFor more, visit: [<u>AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, a unified digital identity protocol exists that allows individuals to use a single, persistent digital identity to interact with these three types of governance frameworks: decentralized finance (DeFi), legal dispute resolutions, and civic/community governance.\n\nThe unified digital identity protocol must meet three protocol requirements: \n\n1. Standards Compliance: Based on World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) standards for Decentralized Identifiers (DIDs) and Verifiable Credentials (VCs)\n2. Industry Recognition: Formally recognized or recommended by at least one major standards body (W3C, Decentralized Identity Foundation, or the Internet Engineering Task Force)\n3. Cross-Platform Compatibility: The same identity can be used across different blockchain networks or governance platforms without requiring separate registration\n\nRequired governance framework interactions: The protocol must enable meaningful participation in all three categories:\n\n1\\. Decentralized Finance (DeFi):\n\n* Execute financial transactions (lending, borrowing, trading, liquidity provision)\n* Access credit or reputation-based financial services\n* Participate in financial governance (protocol voting, fee setting)\n\n2\\. Legal/Dispute Resolution:\n\n* File cases or submit evidence in decentralized arbitration systems\n* Serve as a juror or arbitrator in on-chain dispute resolution\n* Enforce or execute legal agreements through smart contracts\n\n3\\. Civic/Community Governance:\n\n* Vote on proposals in [decentralized autonomous organizations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decentralized_autonomous_organization) (DAOs) with 1,000+ active members\n* Participate in community resource allocation or budget decisions\n* Engage in reputation-based governance systems\n\nVerification requirements:\n\n1. Live Implementation: Must be demonstrated on mainnet (not testnet) blockchain infrastructure\n2. Public Verification: Documented by credible sources including blockchain research groups, major universities, established Web3 organizations, or government digital identity initiatives\n3. Real Usage: Evidence of actual user adoption, not just technical demonstrations\n\nPersistent Identity: The same identifier must work across all three frameworks without modification", "fine_print": "* Simple wallet addresses that happen to work across platforms do not qualify unless they implement DID/VC standards\n* Each governance framework must involve binding decisions or real economic value, not just voting in test scenarios\n* The protocol must preserve user privacy and data sovereignty consistent with self-sovereign identity principles\n* Identity verification or [know your customer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_your_customer) (KYC) processes may be required but must not compromise the unified nature of the identity\n* Cross-chain bridges or interoperability protocols may be used as long as the core identity remains consistent", "post_id": 39170, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762243713.413456, "end_time": 1768222985.375, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762243713.413456, "end_time": 1768222985.375, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.32547958428287843 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8574918820689627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.494559814109398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5506534361945985, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5029882706621958, 0.07710486814962474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019676189570906492, 2.1139130954316805, 0.0, 0.716439045345342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9882950604943128, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0, 0.2971386080475378, 0.0, 0.22900802253318142, 0.6571444928584438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31782191301089174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25446741675480405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3445918901109066, 0.1011216878911307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41773359555817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45875031368367064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06662230505939654 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question, written by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/)*, explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n\n> *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n\n***\n\nThe d/acc scenario envisions individuals managing \"identity stacks\" across multiple overlapping governance systems while maintaining agency and portability. This represents a critical infrastructure requirement: without unified digital identity, the jurisdictional complexity described in d/acc becomes cognitively overwhelming and practically unmanageable. Currently, participation in decentralized finance (DeFi), [decentralized autonomous organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decentralized_autonomous_organization) (DAO) governance, and legal systems requires separate accounts, credentials, and reputation building. A unified protocol would enable the \"jurisdictional routers\" described in the d/acc vision, allowing individuals to seamlessly navigate between governance frameworks based on their preferences and needs. Success would validate that decentralized systems can achieve interoperability without sacrificing user sovereignty, while failure would suggest that the d/acc future remains fragmented across incompatible digital silos, limiting the practical benefits of competitive governance.\n\nFor more, visit: [<u>AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)" }, { "id": 39169, "title": "Will a city with a population of over 1 million successfully use a quadratic funding mechanism to allocate public funds for infrastructure projects before 2031?", "short_title": "Will city with a pop 1+ mil use quadratic funding for infrastructure by 2031?", "url_title": "Will city with a pop 1+ mil use quadratic funding for infrastructure by 2031?", "slug": "will-city-with-a-pop-1-mil-use-quadratic-funding-for-infrastructure-by-2031", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-16T18:51:24.191892Z", 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funding mechanism to allocate public funds for infrastructure projects before 2031?", "created_at": "2025-08-16T18:51:24.192262Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n\n> *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n\n***\n\nThe d/acc scenario's \"Governance Tools Scale in Crisis Response\" (2030) explicitly states: \"Quadratic funding pilots allow citizens to direct resources to public goods in real time.\" This question is a direct test of this specific prediction. Currently, [quadratic funding](https://www.wtfisqf.com/) (QF) is primarily used in the crypto ecosystem (e.g., Gitcoin) to fund digital public goods. Its adoption by a major city to allocate taxpayer money would be a landmark event, signifying a breakthrough for decentralized governance tools in the physical world. It would demonstrate that such tools can scale and integrate with existing government structures, validating the timeline's premise that \"modular, AI-supported governance tools\" become a viable alternative to purely centralized, representative systems for resource allocation.\n\nFor more, visit: [<u>AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, there is a municipality with a population over 1 million in a G7 country that uses a quadratic funding (QF) mechanism to allocate municipal funds to one or more public infrastructure projects.", "fine_print": "The allocation process must adhere to the principles of QF, explained in [A Flexible Design for Funding Public Goods](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1809.06421), including the amount of matching funds a project receives being proportional to the square of the sum of the square roots of the contributions received.\n\nThe matching pool must consist of public funds from the city's treasury. Crowdfunding campaigns where matching funds are purely from private or philanthropic sources do not count.\n\nThe funded project must be a public good, including physical infrastructure (e.g., parks, road repairs, public buildings) or digital infrastructure (e.g., open-source civic software, public Wi-Fi networks).", "post_id": 39169, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762243272.939004, "end_time": 1768221180.631, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762243272.939004, "end_time": 1768221180.631, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 0.23926785961016608 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.39086599043581904, 0.0, 0.11064264398533052, 0.04939379203556264, 0.5938608445325582, 1.3759730782098387, 0.5599024685085519, 0.0, 0.8155333942863845, 0.2659211825430975, 0.02075297689962095, 1.4624461879806656, 0.9990798140656245, 0.0, 0.15685721197324565, 0.41952142253422364, 0.0, 0.5128863128011775, 0.0, 0.04232921962320499, 0.29360034512635746, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11459150947017571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025253159325845955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3235495858073233, 0.0, 0.2403700099395794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05724278302464458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0048705163523246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22622196350729162, 0.7228487183092426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007369969155267514 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n\n> *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n\n***\n\nThe d/acc scenario's \"Governance Tools Scale in Crisis Response\" (2030) explicitly states: \"Quadratic funding pilots allow citizens to direct resources to public goods in real time.\" This question is a direct test of this specific prediction. Currently, [quadratic funding](https://www.wtfisqf.com/) (QF) is primarily used in the crypto ecosystem (e.g., Gitcoin) to fund digital public goods. Its adoption by a major city to allocate taxpayer money would be a landmark event, signifying a breakthrough for decentralized governance tools in the physical world. It would demonstrate that such tools can scale and integrate with existing government structures, validating the timeline's premise that \"modular, AI-supported governance tools\" become a viable alternative to purely centralized, representative systems for resource allocation.\n\nFor more, visit: [<u>AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)" }, { "id": 39166, "title": "Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?", "short_title": "Before 2028, will a top-5 US insurer exclude AI lacking human override?", "url_title": "Before 2028, will a top-5 US insurer exclude AI lacking human override?", "slug": "before-2028-will-a-top-5-us-insurer-exclude-ai-lacking-human-override", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-16T14:04:42.826921Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:40:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:06:01.722879Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:41:03.730613Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32820, "type": "question_series", "name": "The D/acc Pathway", "slug": "daccai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_DlOLUEN.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T16:40:58.506550Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:11:17.942957Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38508, "title": "Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?", "created_at": "2025-08-16T14:04:42.827320Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n\n> *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n\n***\n\nThe d/acc scenario identifies insurance industry actions as a key forcing function in steering deployment away from opaque, agentic AI systems toward more transparent, human-controllable alternatives. This question tests a central prediction: that liability concerns will make AI systems without meaningful human oversight effectively uninsurable in high-stakes domains. Such exclusions, particularly by large insurers, could serve as an early constraint on agentic AI adoption, reshaping technology adoption patterns before regulation does. Like court rulings and licensing standards, insurance exclusions offer a mechanism through which economic incentives reinforce governance-aligned AI architectures.\n\nFor more, visit: [AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), before January 1, 2028 any of the following U.S. insurers introduces a broad, absolute policy exclusion for damages arising from AI systems that operate without human override capabilities:\n\nTop-5 US Property & Casualty Insurers:\n\n* State Farm\n* Progressive\n* Allstate\n* Liberty Mutual\n* USAA\n\nTop-5 US Health Insurers:\n\n* UnitedHealth Group\n* Elevance Health Inc. (formerly Anthem)\n* Centene Corporation\n* Humana\n* CVS Health (Aetna)", "fine_print": "An example of an absolute exclusion that would count for purposes of this question is the one introduced in 2025 by Berkley Insurance Co. ([Law 360](https://www.hunton.com/insights/publications/how-insurance-policies-are-adapting-to-ai-risk), [National Law Review](https://natlawreview.com/article/continued-proliferation-ai-exclusions))\n\nA broad, absolute exclusion of AI means the insurance company explicitly excludes or denies coverage for damages arising from AI systems that lack human override capabilities (i.e, the ability for humans to intervene in or alter AI system decisions before implementation), or does so via a blanket AI exclusion that clearly applies to such systems as a subset of a wider group. Thus, sector-specific exclusions (e.g., a hypothetical scenario in which USAA announces it will explicitly exclude coverage vehicles operating autonomously but remains silent on its other insurance lines) do not qualify unless they establish a general principle applicable across the company's entire portfolio of policy types.\n\nThis question asks whether insurers broadly exclude coverage in their standard policies for AI systems lacking human override capabilities. Thus, if the insurance company sells [riders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rider.asp) or add-ons to allow coverage of AI lacking human oversight, it will still count for purposes of this question. ", "post_id": 39166, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762243551.542545, "end_time": 1763137507.483, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.286 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762243551.542545, "end_time": 1763137507.483, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.286 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.40856461886904316 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0773927070098371, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.16438976427023788, 0.08867683223307754, 0.011886366648789067, 0.049680819655039385, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6571444928584438, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5385314730202072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9245554176950527, 0.0, 2.577541627360058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 1.3042671930448821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8142225803798993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3870676809895865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45875031368367064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22900802253318142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3445918901109067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9155752347239553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n\n> *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n\n***\n\nThe d/acc scenario identifies insurance industry actions as a key forcing function in steering deployment away from opaque, agentic AI systems toward more transparent, human-controllable alternatives. This question tests a central prediction: that liability concerns will make AI systems without meaningful human oversight effectively uninsurable in high-stakes domains. Such exclusions, particularly by large insurers, could serve as an early constraint on agentic AI adoption, reshaping technology adoption patterns before regulation does. Like court rulings and licensing standards, insurance exclusions offer a mechanism through which economic incentives reinforce governance-aligned AI architectures.\n\nFor more, visit: [AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)" }, { "id": 39165, "title": "Will the U.S. \"Microgrid as a Service\" (MaaS) market exceed $1.5 billion before 2030?", "short_title": "Will US \"Microgrid as a Service\" (MaaS) market exceed $1.5 billion by 2030?", "url_title": "Will US \"Microgrid as a Service\" (MaaS) market exceed $1.5 billion by 2030?", "slug": "will-us-microgrid-as-a-service-maas-market-exceed-15-billion-by-2030", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-16T12:31:00.919410Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:40:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:11:17.457306Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:40:53.761564Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-07-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32820, "type": "question_series", "name": "The D/acc Pathway", "slug": "daccai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_DlOLUEN.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T16:40:58.506550Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:11:17.942957Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38507, "title": "Will the U.S. \"Microgrid as a Service\" (MaaS) market exceed $1.5 billion before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-08-16T12:31:00.919834Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-07-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n\n> *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n\n***\n\nMicrogrids [are](https://sunbeltsolomon.com/microgrids-for-commercial-applications/) local electrical grids or networks that operate independently of the larger electrical grid, often designed to serve a specific area such as a college campus, neighborhood or factory. As decentralized entities, they are sometimes considered more [antifragile](https://microgridnews.com/microgrid-antifragility-resilience/) than the larger grid, especially when viewed collectively.\n\nAs of 2024, the U.S. MaaS market was [<u>valued at approximately \\$953.2 million</u>](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/us-microgrid-as-a-service-market-report) with a forecasted compound annual growth rate of around 12%. Reaching \\$1.5 billion would demonstrate the economic viability and scaling needed for the decentralized energy infrastructure described in the d/acc scenario.\n\nThe d/acc scenario envisions community-owned microgrids as foundational infrastructure for decentralized resilience, generating revenue through energy arbitrage and grid services while providing backup power. The \"Microgrid as a Service\" model represents the economic mechanism that makes this vision viable—third-party companies finance, own, and operate microgrid systems, reducing upfront costs for communities while creating sustainable revenue streams. This market segment serves as a direct proxy for the \"grid services revenue\" central to the d/acc infrastructure transformation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, [Grand View Researc](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/us-microgrid-as-a-service-market-report)[<u>h</u>](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/us-microgrid-as-a-service-market-report) publishes a report stating that the U.S. \"Microgrid as a Service\" (MaaS) market size exceeded \\$1.5 billion for any full calendar year between 2025 and 2029, inclusive.", "fine_print": " The \\$1.5 billion is in nominal U.S. dollars and will not be adjusted for inflation.\n\nThe market size must be reported for a complete calendar year in the past tense, not partial year estimates or projections.\n\nIn the event Grand View ceases to publish this information or there is reason to believe its information is inaccurate, Metaculus may rely on a report from another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as a reputable market research firm. The report must specifically identify the market segment as \"Microgrid as a Service,\" \"MaaS,\" or equivalent terminology describing third-party owned and operated microgrid systems in the United States.", "post_id": 39165, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762243867.191486, "end_time": 1764658669.475, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762243867.191486, "end_time": 1764658669.475, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6525747413624912 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24233740095005632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5407300041287509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028709986438327752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7235452754903173, 0.06833212923320346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45300603415401103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.7423485818129842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8660550889069372, 0.4908938952541426, 0.023192367940811438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9195046140969454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7522805478126031, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28328044671875385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44243204090827376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n\n> *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n\n***\n\nMicrogrids [are](https://sunbeltsolomon.com/microgrids-for-commercial-applications/) local electrical grids or networks that operate independently of the larger electrical grid, often designed to serve a specific area such as a college campus, neighborhood or factory. As decentralized entities, they are sometimes considered more [antifragile](https://microgridnews.com/microgrid-antifragility-resilience/) than the larger grid, especially when viewed collectively.\n\nAs of 2024, the U.S. MaaS market was [<u>valued at approximately \\$953.2 million</u>](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/us-microgrid-as-a-service-market-report) with a forecasted compound annual growth rate of around 12%. Reaching \\$1.5 billion would demonstrate the economic viability and scaling needed for the decentralized energy infrastructure described in the d/acc scenario.\n\nThe d/acc scenario envisions community-owned microgrids as foundational infrastructure for decentralized resilience, generating revenue through energy arbitrage and grid services while providing backup power. The \"Microgrid as a Service\" model represents the economic mechanism that makes this vision viable—third-party companies finance, own, and operate microgrid systems, reducing upfront costs for communities while creating sustainable revenue streams. This market segment serves as a direct proxy for the \"grid services revenue\" central to the d/acc infrastructure transformation." }, { "id": 39164, "title": "Before 2031, will a G7 country have an active, publicly-funded UBI pilot program covering at least 25,000 people?", "short_title": "By 2031, will a G7 country have UBI pilot program covering at least 25k ppl?", "url_title": "By 2031, will a G7 country have UBI pilot program covering at least 25k ppl?", "slug": "by-2031-will-a-g7-country-have-ubi-pilot-program-covering-at-least-25k-ppl", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-16T12:06:31.819604Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:40:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:05:33.087782Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:40:45.046084Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32819, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Tool AI Pathway", "slug": "toolai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_dnLSFt7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:38:11.835400Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.350300Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38506, "title": "Before 2031, will a G7 country have an active, publicly-funded UBI pilot program covering at least 25,000 people?", "created_at": "2025-08-16T12:06:31.819979Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question evaluates whether governments begin testing large-scale basic income programs in response to AI-driven economic change. In the Tool AI scenario, rising productivity enables predistribution models, with AI helping simulate and manage UBI systems. A government-funded UBI pilot covering tens of thousands of people would support the scenario’s claims about economic adaptation.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, a federal government of a G7 nation (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, or the US) launches and provides funding for a Universal Basic Income (UBI) pilot program, defined below. \n\nThe program must be authorized for at least six months and meet the following criteria:\n\n* Universal: Payments are made to individuals without a work requirement and payments are not means-testing based on income. Geographic or age-based targeting is permitted.\n* Sufficient Scale: At least 25,000 individuals are receiving payments simultaneously.\n* Publicly Funded: The program is primarily funded by a national government. Private charity or research institution cofunding is permissible ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39164, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762243522.523289, "end_time": 1764417336.016, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.242 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762243522.523289, "end_time": 1764417336.016, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.242 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.758, 0.242 ], "means": [ 0.30279571556665885 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24646082002862074, 1.6751194107835325, 0.0, 0.9729490294714811, 0.0, 0.467189601294716, 0.0, 0.0, 1.706283456739993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5560653881797408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8008300996824153, 0.7104289439189292, 0.11417155583535932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02069706247742786, 0.0, 2.2313665147214907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20289256133794253, 0.2898717268244653, 0.0767469029314348, 0.20862122528853305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03125319384346273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09215390124464654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15793013576374704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2159649223443713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009514982201565289, 0.0, 0.0015287348614981507, 0.0, 0.8161110159876654, 0.6889011134530953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007926343375474506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10155422864166669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0703652452714023 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question evaluates whether governments begin testing large-scale basic income programs in response to AI-driven economic change. In the Tool AI scenario, rising productivity enables predistribution models, with AI helping simulate and manage UBI systems. A government-funded UBI pilot covering tens of thousands of people would support the scenario’s claims about economic adaptation.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)" }, { "id": 39163, "title": "Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?", "short_title": "Before 2029, will a new AI safety org form with 3+ G7 members?", "url_title": "Before 2029, will a new AI safety org form with 3+ G7 members?", "slug": "before-2029-will-a-new-ai-safety-org-form-with-3-g7-members", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-16T11:41:57.653675Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:02:17.661348Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:40:34.561182Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, 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"tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32819, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Tool AI Pathway", "slug": "toolai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_dnLSFt7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:38:11.835400Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.350300Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38505, "title": "Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?", "created_at": "2025-08-16T11:41:57.654149Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nWhile several international summits and declarations on AI governance have taken place in recent years, many experts have called for a standing international institution focused on AI safety, sometimes referred to as a “CERN for AI.” \n\nThis question tests whether new global institutions focused on AI safety will emerge with meaningful support. In the Tool AI scenario, formal governance bodies become essential to coordinating AI development, especially across high-stakes domains. A new international organization with substantial backing from multiple G7 countries would mark a concrete step toward the scenario’s institutional vision.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, a new international organization, with participation from at least 3 G7 countries, is formally launched that has a primary focus on safety or alignment of advanced AI systems according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "\"Participation\" can mean listed as a formal participant by the organization, being a signatory, or being a contributor.\n\nThe G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.\n\nIn order to count, the organization must be a new entity, not a sub-unit of an existing body such as the UN, OECD, or GPAI. \n\nThe organization must have a dedicated secretariat staff or administrative team and an initial funding commitment of at least \\$100 million USD (over any time period), publicly pledged by governments and/or officially participating entities.\n\nAI safety must me an explicit and central goal of the organization. \n\nThe organization must have be an indefinite going concern, not a one-off task force or single event.", "post_id": 39163, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762243327.341992, "end_time": 1764148650.941, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762243327.341992, "end_time": 1764148650.941, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4454432851863446 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27484075045126616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2893506753269389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2096704035961632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1139394255878376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43776641345902195, 0.0, 1.017125136093439, 0.0, 0.12605111094439408, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4441606812103065, 0.009837259930117102, 0.0, 0.1533679428866179, 0.0, 1.6375483009518206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42782557433044666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3722069427882975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0743529554125065, 0.806208236854164, 0.0, 0.10277262157203126, 0.0, 0.6956811236098437, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2751519181880029, 0.023413487787231745, 0.09249024938796033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8883800999447573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08303507941585661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20314358457038237, 0.06797440167749068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7933664125746624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010255396270789136, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004800587348436423 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nWhile several international summits and declarations on AI governance have taken place in recent years, many experts have called for a standing international institution focused on AI safety, sometimes referred to as a “CERN for AI.” \n\nThis question tests whether new global institutions focused on AI safety will emerge with meaningful support. In the Tool AI scenario, formal governance bodies become essential to coordinating AI development, especially across high-stakes domains. A new international organization with substantial backing from multiple G7 countries would mark a concrete step toward the scenario’s institutional vision.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)" }, { "id": 39162, "title": "By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?", "short_title": "By 2028–29, will most of the 20 largest US school districts adopt AI tutoring?", "url_title": "By 2028–29, will most of the 20 largest US school districts adopt AI tutoring?", "slug": "by-202829-will-most-of-the-20-largest-us-school-districts-adopt-ai-tutoring", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-16T11:15:57.187818Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:39:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:07:07.145249Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:40:24.901389Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-08-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-09-16T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32819, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Tool AI Pathway", "slug": "toolai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_dnLSFt7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:38:11.835400Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.350300Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38504, "title": "By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?", "created_at": "2025-08-16T11:15:57.188248Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-09-16T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-08-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-08-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThe \"Tool AI\" scenario envisions AI systems augmenting human teachers by providing personalized, scalable instruction across public education systems. AI tools like Khan Academy’s Khanmigo and other generative tutoring platforms have entered classrooms, but large-scale, district-wide adoption remains a major threshold for institutional change.\n\nHowever, adoption is not guaranteed. Past efforts like [**<u>Ed</u>**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_\\(chatbot\\)), a chatbot introduced in Los Angeles schools, failed due to performance issues and privacy concerns.\n\nRecent developments suggest renewed momentum. In July 2025, the [<u>New York Times reported that **Alpha School**</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/27/us/politics/ai-alpha-school-austin-texas.html), a Texas-based charter network, has integrated AI tutoring across core subjects.\n\nThis question tracks whether AI-powered tutoring tools move from small pilots to institutional adoption. In the Tool AI scenario, education systems increasingly use AI tutors to personalize learning, support teachers, and improve student outcomes—especially in under-resourced areas. Widespread adoption by major school districts would signal the scenario’s vision of AI-enhanced education taking root.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by the start of the 2028-29 school year, at least 11 of the 20 largest K–12 public school districts in the United States (by student enrollment) have officially adopted and are actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for use in at least one core academic subject.", "fine_print": "* \"Official adoption\" means a district-wide decision documented in publicly available board meeting minutes, press releases, or curriculum guidelines. The system must be made available to a substantial portion of students (e.g., all students in a subject or grade), not just through small-scale pilots.\n* \"AI-powered tutoring system\" refers to a student-facing digital platform that uses artificial intelligence to provide personalized instruction, practice, or feedback in Math, English Language Arts, or Science.\n* A system must be in active use by the start of the 2028–2029 school year. Announced but not yet implemented systems do not count. Neither do implemented systems that were then discontinued, as [occurred ](https://www.the74million.org/article/la-unified-faces-criticism-after-collapse-of-splashy-ai-tool-ed/)in the Los Angeles Unified school district.\n\nFor purposes of this question, the top 20 school districts by enrollment are as follows (based on NCES 2022 data):\n\n1. New York City Public Schools (NY) \n2. Los Angeles Unified (CA)\n3. Clark County (NV)\n4. Miami-Dade (FL)\n5. Broward County (FL)\n6. Hillsborough County (FL)\n7. Chicago Public Schools (IL)\n8. Houston ISD (TX)\n9. Orange County (FL)\n10. Fairfax County (VA)\n11. Gwinnett County (GA)\n12. Dallas ISD (TX)\n13. Wake County (NC)\n14. Montgomery County (MD)\n15. Charlotte-Mecklenburg (NC)\n16. Philadelphia SD (PA)\n17. Palm Beach County (FL)\n18. Duval County (FL)\n19. Cobb County (GA)\n20. San Diego Unified (CA)\n\nIf any districts merge or split before 2028, Metaculus may issue a clarification adjusting this list. ", "post_id": 39162, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762243616.373174, "end_time": 1764331641.59, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762243616.373174, "end_time": 1764331641.59, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40884006977662907 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.05065733435182447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017823678094023753, 0.3021788584026851, 0.5009542009065652, 0.2519740871949554, 0.32919929430005174, 0.0, 0.15635056202879707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03877020169610887, 0.0, 0.08235174299721564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1902336590916781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10299458082921686, 0.7773442989653425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7337721562253398, 0.0, 0.9524473792352214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06505325903721454, 0.0, 0.3818901545040615, 0.7421409634973282, 0.007784236121081673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9415009991854592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4508632896651905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021159747596370834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6873484555754474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.734717329493923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.800591043524475, 0.30950852055406136, 0.0, 0.02904148917975771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5528510907298698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028636604341700815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004333234413825695 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThe \"Tool AI\" scenario envisions AI systems augmenting human teachers by providing personalized, scalable instruction across public education systems. AI tools like Khan Academy’s Khanmigo and other generative tutoring platforms have entered classrooms, but large-scale, district-wide adoption remains a major threshold for institutional change.\n\nHowever, adoption is not guaranteed. Past efforts like [**<u>Ed</u>**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_\\(chatbot\\)), a chatbot introduced in Los Angeles schools, failed due to performance issues and privacy concerns.\n\nRecent developments suggest renewed momentum. In July 2025, the [<u>New York Times reported that **Alpha School**</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/27/us/politics/ai-alpha-school-austin-texas.html), a Texas-based charter network, has integrated AI tutoring across core subjects.\n\nThis question tracks whether AI-powered tutoring tools move from small pilots to institutional adoption. In the Tool AI scenario, education systems increasingly use AI tutors to personalize learning, support teachers, and improve student outcomes—especially in under-resourced areas. Widespread adoption by major school districts would signal the scenario’s vision of AI-enhanced education taking root.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)" }, { "id": 39160, "title": "Will the next U.S. President have a beard or mustache when elected?", "short_title": "Will the next U.S. President have a beard or mustache?", "url_title": "Will the next U.S. President have a beard or mustache?", "slug": "will-the-next-us-president-have-a-beard-or-mustache", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-16T02:22:43.553200Z", "published_at": "2025-08-17T19:29:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T19:58:41.087746Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-17T19:33:33.546471Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-11-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-11-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-18T19:29:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38502, "title": "Will the next U.S. President have a beard or mustache when elected?", "created_at": "2025-08-16T02:22:43.553635Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T19:29:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-22T19:29:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-22T19:29:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-11-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-11-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-11-06T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Facial hair goes in and out of style, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the [pantheon of American Presidents](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States#Presidents). No President *before* Abraham Lincoln (first elected 1860), and no President *since* William H. Taft (elected 1908) has [worn a beard or mustache](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/25/jd-vance-beard-00170761) in office. But for a hairy half-century between Lincoln and Taft, 9 out of 11 Presidents had facial hair. After more than 100 years of clean-shaven Presidents, might the tide finally turn back?\n\nAs of August 2025, J.D. Vance is widely seen as the [leading candidate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37321/who-will-be-the-2028-republican-nominee-for-president-of-the-united-states/) to win the Republican nomination, and he currently wears a beard. (Indeed, he is already the first Vice President to sport facial hair since [Charles Curtis](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article293491459.html), who served under President Hoover.) Donald Trump Jr., more of a dark horse candidate for the nomination, is also bearded.\n\nOn the Democratic side, there is no clear [front-runner for the nomination](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37322/who-will-be-the-2028-democratic-nominee-for-president-of-the-united-states/), but one possible candidate, Pete Buttigieg, has [recently grown a beard](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/28/nx-s1-5475197/buttigieg-trump-democrats-election-2028) as well. And more potential candidates may do the same; after all, according to [The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2025/07/mustache-trend-beard-revival/683654/), facial hair \"has arguably returned.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential election is wearing a beard or mustache on November 7, 2028.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve once there is no longer any reasonable doubt as to the winner of the election. \n\nIf it is unclear whether a contender is wearing a beard or mustache on November 7, 2028, this question may wait until January 20, 2029, for evidence to emerge. If it still unclear then, this question will be annulled.\n\nIf it is unclear whether the winner's facial hair counts as a beard or mustache, this question will refer to credible sources; in the case of mixed descriptions, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 39160, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761681510.559716, "end_time": 1765336246.229, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761681510.559716, "end_time": 1765336246.229, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2699333382675843 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 1.6024767294811457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.5904801738213669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.48251097152452394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8247174498016507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30956214261376913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Facial hair goes in and out of style, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the [pantheon of American Presidents](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States#Presidents). No President *before* Abraham Lincoln (first elected 1860), and no President *since* William H. Taft (elected 1908) has [worn a beard or mustache](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/25/jd-vance-beard-00170761) in office. But for a hairy half-century between Lincoln and Taft, 9 out of 11 Presidents had facial hair. After more than 100 years of clean-shaven Presidents, might the tide finally turn back?\n\nAs of August 2025, J.D. Vance is widely seen as the [leading candidate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37321/who-will-be-the-2028-republican-nominee-for-president-of-the-united-states/) to win the Republican nomination, and he currently wears a beard. (Indeed, he is already the first Vice President to sport facial hair since [Charles Curtis](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article293491459.html), who served under President Hoover.) Donald Trump Jr., more of a dark horse candidate for the nomination, is also bearded.\n\nOn the Democratic side, there is no clear [front-runner for the nomination](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37322/who-will-be-the-2028-democratic-nominee-for-president-of-the-united-states/), but one possible candidate, Pete Buttigieg, has [recently grown a beard](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/28/nx-s1-5475197/buttigieg-trump-democrats-election-2028) as well. And more potential candidates may do the same; after all, according to [The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2025/07/mustache-trend-beard-revival/683654/), facial hair \"has arguably returned.\"" }, { "id": 39159, "title": "Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet CEO pledge AI autonomy limits before 2027?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet CEO pledge AI autonomy limits before 2027?", "slug": "will-openai-meta-or-alphabet-ceo-pledge-ai-autonomy-limits-before-2027", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-15T12:44:21.306223Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:39:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:06:13.322257Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:39:49.771693Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32819, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Tool AI Pathway", "slug": "toolai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_dnLSFt7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:38:11.835400Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.350300Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38501, "title": "Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-15T12:44:21.306789Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nCurrent voluntary AI safety frameworks (e.g. the Frontier AI Safety Commitments) focus on transparency and risk monitoring, but few companies have made enforceable, public commitments to limiting the autonomy of their systems. This question tests whether one of the world’s most influential AI developers will go further and publicly commit to technical and governance limitations on system autonomy, especially as agentic systems become more powerful and embedded in high-stakes applications.\n\nThis question tests whether top AI companies are willing to formally limit the autonomy of their systems. In the Tool AI scenario, a major part of the transition involves institutional and market incentives pushing developers to keep systems interpretable, bounded, and human-overseeable. A high-profile commitment from a CEO would reflect a shift in industry norms consistent with that vision.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the current CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet Inc. (which includes Google and its Google DeepMind subsidiary, which has its own CEO) makes a clear, public commitment to formally limit the autonomy of their AI systems. The public commitment must include all of the following:\n\n1. Concrete technical limitations, with specific technical restrictions on AI system autonomy (e.g., hard-coded constraints, API-level restrictions preventing agentic behavior without human sign-off).\n2. Verifiable oversight mechanisms, which have a defined process for human-in-the-loop oversight for high-risk or consequential decisions.\n3. Explicit autonomy boundaries: A formal boundary beyond August 2025 general safety principles that limits the conditions or domains in which the company’s AI systems may act autonomously.", "fine_print": "The commitment must be directly attributable to the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (i.e., Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg, or Sundar Pichai at the time of the question) or subsidiaries if autonomously run with their own CEO (e.g., Google DeepMind at the time of this question, which has Demis Hassabis as its CEO). A commitment by the leader of a division of the main company, such as Meta AI, which is run by a vice president, does not count.\n\nGeneral or vague statements about safety, responsibility, or alignment do not qualify unless they include the specific, testable limitations described above.\n\nCorporate mergers, acquisitions, or rebrandings should not affect resolution. ", "post_id": 39159, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762243562.915993, "end_time": 1763123530.049, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762243562.915993, "end_time": 1763123530.049, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.21359989065694035 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3088165795470462, 0.0, 0.1685193219361709, 0.10545724016089074, 0.003637646323940793, 0.08694657143909447, 0.0, 0.7057676323246797, 0.0, 0.0, 1.847202797576594, 0.3791315228443059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5508374449111944, 0.5559642326652211, 0.41990426677267545, 0.812986479619698, 0.0, 0.6568720698690461, 0.33753441969003506, 0.05030905064265755, 0.8929444118329848, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4154962193317253, 0.0, 0.8716505529499683, 0.07008451076222237, 0.0, 0.47889295239070967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015204078447885579, 0.0, 0.38854550310770575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33171761475866546, 0.002647192416789941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35918636306610896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030668161612313234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18422176936144166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1278411749500892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007454186295369823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03094679367520054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006021606162473711 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nCurrent voluntary AI safety frameworks (e.g. the Frontier AI Safety Commitments) focus on transparency and risk monitoring, but few companies have made enforceable, public commitments to limiting the autonomy of their systems. This question tests whether one of the world’s most influential AI developers will go further and publicly commit to technical and governance limitations on system autonomy, especially as agentic systems become more powerful and embedded in high-stakes applications.\n\nThis question tests whether top AI companies are willing to formally limit the autonomy of their systems. In the Tool AI scenario, a major part of the transition involves institutional and market incentives pushing developers to keep systems interpretable, bounded, and human-overseeable. A high-profile commitment from a CEO would reflect a shift in industry norms consistent with that vision.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)" }, { "id": 39157, "title": "By 2030, will Escambia County Public Schools have substantially more Black teachers than today?", "short_title": "More Black Teachers in Escambia by 2030?", "url_title": "More Black Teachers in Escambia by 2030?", "slug": "more-black-teachers-in-escambia-by-2030", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-15T00:08:34.152668Z", "published_at": "2025-08-15T00:08:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.166942Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-15T00:08:53.976443Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-06-30T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-15T00:09:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38500, "title": "By 2030, will Escambia County Public Schools have substantially more Black teachers than today?", "created_at": "2025-08-15T00:08:34.153055Z", "open_time": "2025-08-15T00:09:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-15T00:10:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-15T00:10:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-06-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-06-30T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson's friendship](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) shows how relationships between people of different races can transform communities. But for today's students to build similar bridges, they need to see themselves reflected in their teachers.\r\n\r\n**Why Teacher Diversity Matters**\r\n\r\nResearch shows that [all students benefit from having teachers of color](https://learningpolicyinstitute.org/topic/educator-diversity), but the impact is especially strong for Black students. When Black students have Black teachers, they're more likely to:\r\n- Graduate from high school\r\n- Aspire to attend college \r\n- Be identified for gifted programs\r\n- Feel understood and supported\r\n\r\nAs Dick Appleyard noted about his friendship with Ernest Dawson: \"He knows how to deal with people and to make you feel included.\" That same ability to connect across differences is what diverse teachers bring to classrooms every day.\r\n\r\n**The Current Reality in Escambia County**\r\n\r\nWhile Escambia County School District's student body is richly diverse:\r\n- 34.3% Black students\r\n- 44.9% White students\r\n- 9.8% Hispanic students\r\n- 8% multiracial students\r\n\r\nThe teaching force doesn't reflect this diversity. Based on typical Florida patterns where [only 6-7% of teachers are Black nationally](https://www.americanprogress.org/article/america-needs-teachers-color-selective-teaching-profession/), Escambia County likely has around 15% Black teachers - still far below the 34% of students who are Black.\r\n\r\n**The Challenge Ahead**\r\n\r\nDiversifying the teaching profession faces real obstacles:\r\n- **Teacher Shortages**: Florida ranks 50th in teacher pay, making recruitment difficult\r\n- **Retention Issues**: [Teachers of color leave at higher rates](https://learningpolicyinstitute.org/product/diversifying-teaching-profession-report), often feeling isolated in schools where they're one of few\r\n- **Pipeline Problems**: Fewer Black students are entering teacher preparation programs\r\n\r\n**Reasons for Hope**\r\n\r\nBut there are proven strategies that work:\r\n- **Grow Your Own Programs**: Recruiting paraprofessionals and community members already working in schools\r\n- **Student Teaching Pipelines**: Programs that identify high school students interested in teaching\r\n- **Better Support Systems**: Mentorship programs specifically for teachers of color\r\n- **Financial Incentives**: Scholarships and loan forgiveness for teaching in high-need schools\r\n\r\nFlorida has initiatives like the [Minority Teacher Education Scholarship](https://ffmt.org/index.cfm) program, which has been working for over 20 years to increase teacher diversity.\r\n\r\n**Building on the Past, Looking to the Future**\r\n\r\nJust as sports helped bring Appleyard and Dawson together in the 1960s, having more Black teachers can help all students build the cross-racial understanding needed for our diverse democracy. As Dawson reflected on integration: \"You know what you hear from your family and your friends. That's how you saw them, until you're right next to them.\"\r\n\r\nWhen students see teachers who look like them succeeding, it changes what they believe is possible for their own futures.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\r\n\r\nThis question will resolve based on official demographic data for teachers in Escambia County Public Schools.\r\n\r\n**Current Baseline (2024-25):**\r\nApproximately 15% of teachers are Black (estimated based on typical Florida patterns and district demographics)\r\n\r\n**Target for 2030:**\r\nAt least 25% of teachers are Black\r\n\r\n**Data Sources:**\r\nPrimary sources (in order of preference):\r\n1. Florida Department of Education's annual Staff Demographics Report\r\n2. Escambia County School District's official Human Resources data\r\n3. Federal Civil Rights Data Collection (if state/local unavailable)\r\n\r\n**What Counts as a \"Teacher\":**\r\n- Full-time classroom teachers\r\n- Special education teachers\r\n- Reading specialists and interventionists\r\n- ESE teachers\r\n- Media specialists/librarians who hold teaching certificates\r\n\r\n**What Doesn't Count:**\r\n- Substitute teachers\r\n- Paraprofessionals/teacher aides\r\n- Administrators (principals, assistant principals)\r\n- Support staff (counselors, social workers, psychologists)\r\n\r\n**Resolution:**\r\n- **YES** if Black teachers make up 25% or more of the teaching force by end of 2029-30 school year\r\n- **NO** if Black teachers remain below 25%\r\n\r\n**Important Notes:**\r\n- Uses self-identified race/ethnicity from official employment records\r\n- If exact 2024-25 baseline differs from 15% estimate, the question still resolves based on reaching 25% threshold\r\n- If district boundaries change significantly (merger/split), question resolves as AMBIGUOUS\r\n- If no official data is available by December 31, 2030, question resolves as AMBIGUOUS", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39157, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755218901.671472, "end_time": 1763169950.577, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755218901.671472, "end_time": 1763169950.577, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.26888235294117646 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson's friendship](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) shows how relationships between people of different races can transform communities. But for today's students to build similar bridges, they need to see themselves reflected in their teachers.\r\n\r\n**Why Teacher Diversity Matters**\r\n\r\nResearch shows that [all students benefit from having teachers of color](https://learningpolicyinstitute.org/topic/educator-diversity), but the impact is especially strong for Black students. When Black students have Black teachers, they're more likely to:\r\n- Graduate from high school\r\n- Aspire to attend college \r\n- Be identified for gifted programs\r\n- Feel understood and supported\r\n\r\nAs Dick Appleyard noted about his friendship with Ernest Dawson: \"He knows how to deal with people and to make you feel included.\" That same ability to connect across differences is what diverse teachers bring to classrooms every day.\r\n\r\n**The Current Reality in Escambia County**\r\n\r\nWhile Escambia County School District's student body is richly diverse:\r\n- 34.3% Black students\r\n- 44.9% White students\r\n- 9.8% Hispanic students\r\n- 8% multiracial students\r\n\r\nThe teaching force doesn't reflect this diversity. Based on typical Florida patterns where [only 6-7% of teachers are Black nationally](https://www.americanprogress.org/article/america-needs-teachers-color-selective-teaching-profession/), Escambia County likely has around 15% Black teachers - still far below the 34% of students who are Black.\r\n\r\n**The Challenge Ahead**\r\n\r\nDiversifying the teaching profession faces real obstacles:\r\n- **Teacher Shortages**: Florida ranks 50th in teacher pay, making recruitment difficult\r\n- **Retention Issues**: [Teachers of color leave at higher rates](https://learningpolicyinstitute.org/product/diversifying-teaching-profession-report), often feeling isolated in schools where they're one of few\r\n- **Pipeline Problems**: Fewer Black students are entering teacher preparation programs\r\n\r\n**Reasons for Hope**\r\n\r\nBut there are proven strategies that work:\r\n- **Grow Your Own Programs**: Recruiting paraprofessionals and community members already working in schools\r\n- **Student Teaching Pipelines**: Programs that identify high school students interested in teaching\r\n- **Better Support Systems**: Mentorship programs specifically for teachers of color\r\n- **Financial Incentives**: Scholarships and loan forgiveness for teaching in high-need schools\r\n\r\nFlorida has initiatives like the [Minority Teacher Education Scholarship](https://ffmt.org/index.cfm) program, which has been working for over 20 years to increase teacher diversity.\r\n\r\n**Building on the Past, Looking to the Future**\r\n\r\nJust as sports helped bring Appleyard and Dawson together in the 1960s, having more Black teachers can help all students build the cross-racial understanding needed for our diverse democracy. As Dawson reflected on integration: \"You know what you hear from your family and your friends. That's how you saw them, until you're right next to them.\"\r\n\r\nWhen students see teachers who look like them succeeding, it changes what they believe is possible for their own futures." }, { "id": 39156, "title": "Will Escambia County athletes be more likely than non-athletes to have cross-race friendships in 2026?", "short_title": "Athletes & Cross-Race Friendships in Escambia Schools?", "url_title": "Athletes & Cross-Race Friendships in Escambia Schools?", "slug": "athletes-cross-race-friendships-in-escambia-schools", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-15T00:01:18.564349Z", "published_at": "2025-08-15T00:01:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.148728Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-15T00:01:50.304587Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-15T00:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38499, "title": "Will Escambia County athletes be more likely than non-athletes to have cross-race friendships in 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-15T00:01:18.564760Z", "open_time": "2025-08-15T00:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-15T00:03:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-15T00:03:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sports have long been recognized as a powerful force for breaking down racial barriers. The [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson's friendship](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) at Pensacola High during integration shows how athletics can bridge racial divides. Their friendship, forged through football and basketball in the late 1960s, has lasted over 50 years.\r\n\r\n**Why Sports Matter for Cross-Race Friendships**\r\n\r\nAs Appleyard noted in the WUWF article, \"I think sports played a huge role. And I can tell you the guys that were on every team that I played at Pensacola High School, white or Black, it didn't matter; you either run fast or you don't.\" This captures the meritocratic nature of sports that can transcend racial boundaries.\r\n\r\nResearch backs this up. Studies show that [school activities like sports create opportunities for meaningful interracial contact](https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/338954), with integrated extracurricular activities reducing friendship segregation. Athletes work toward common goals, share intense experiences, and develop mutual respect through competition and teamwork.\r\n\r\n**The Current Landscape in Escambia County**\r\n\r\nEscambia County School District demographics:\r\n- 44.9% White students\r\n- 34.3% Black students\r\n- 9.8% Hispanic students\r\n- 8% multiracial students\r\n\r\nThe district offers extensive athletic programs across its high schools, with most schools fielding 20+ different sports teams. Major sports include:\r\n- Football (where Ernest Dawson was the first Black player at PHS)\r\n- Basketball (Dick Appleyard's sport)\r\n- Baseball/Softball\r\n- Track & Field\r\n- Soccer\r\n- Wrestling\r\n- Swimming\r\n\r\n**Historical Context and Current Challenges**\r\n\r\nEscambia High School's troubled racial history - from its segregated opening in 1958 to the 1976 riots over Confederate symbols - shows how far the district has come. The federal courts banned racially divisive symbols in 1973, and schools have worked to create more inclusive environments.\r\n\r\nHowever, challenges remain. Some schools struggle with \"school spirit\" and maintaining successful programs across all sports. But where athletic programs thrive, they continue to bring diverse students together.\r\n\r\n**Building on Success**\r\n\r\nCommunity Partnership Schools and other initiatives are working to close achievement gaps, but sports remain one of the most organic ways for students to form cross-race friendships. As Dawson reflected: \"Many times, because of that distance the interaction wasn't positive because you came in with a certain mindset and so did they.\" Sports help break down those preconceived notions through shared experience.\r\n\r\nThis question will help measure whether the unifying power of athletics that brought Appleyard and Dawson together continues to work for today's students in Escambia County.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\r\n\r\nThis question will resolve based on a student survey conducted in Escambia County high schools at the end of the 2025-26 school year.\r\n\r\n**Survey Design:**\r\nStudents will be asked two simple questions:\r\n1. \"Do you participate in school athletics?\" (Yes/No)\r\n2. \"Do you have at least one close friend of a different race?\" (Yes/No)\r\n\r\n**Key Definitions:**\r\n- **Athlete**: Any student who participates in at least one school-sponsored sport during the 2025-26 school year\r\n- **Close friend**: Someone the student would confide in and spend time with outside of required activities\r\n- **Different race**: Based on student self-identification of their own race and their perception of their friend's race\r\n\r\n**Calculation:**\r\n- Calculate the percentage of athletes who answer \"Yes\" to having a cross-race close friend\r\n- Calculate the percentage of non-athletes who answer \"Yes\" to having a cross-race close friend\r\n- Find the difference (Athletes % minus Non-Athletes %)\r\n\r\n**Resolution:**\r\n- **YES** if the difference is 5 percentage points or greater (athletes have ≥5pp higher rate)\r\n- **NO** if the difference is less than 5 percentage points\r\n\r\n**Data Collection Requirements:**\r\n- Minimum 500 student responses needed (at least 150 athletes, 150 non-athletes)\r\n- Survey can be conducted by the school district, EPA, or independent researchers\r\n- If no official survey exists, a credible community survey meeting the minimum requirements will be accepted\r\n\r\n**Fallback Resolution:**\r\nIf no qualifying survey data is available by June 30, 2026, the question resolves as AMBIGUOUS.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39156, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sports have long been recognized as a powerful force for breaking down racial barriers. The [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson's friendship](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) at Pensacola High during integration shows how athletics can bridge racial divides. Their friendship, forged through football and basketball in the late 1960s, has lasted over 50 years.\r\n\r\n**Why Sports Matter for Cross-Race Friendships**\r\n\r\nAs Appleyard noted in the WUWF article, \"I think sports played a huge role. And I can tell you the guys that were on every team that I played at Pensacola High School, white or Black, it didn't matter; you either run fast or you don't.\" This captures the meritocratic nature of sports that can transcend racial boundaries.\r\n\r\nResearch backs this up. Studies show that [school activities like sports create opportunities for meaningful interracial contact](https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/338954), with integrated extracurricular activities reducing friendship segregation. Athletes work toward common goals, share intense experiences, and develop mutual respect through competition and teamwork.\r\n\r\n**The Current Landscape in Escambia County**\r\n\r\nEscambia County School District demographics:\r\n- 44.9% White students\r\n- 34.3% Black students\r\n- 9.8% Hispanic students\r\n- 8% multiracial students\r\n\r\nThe district offers extensive athletic programs across its high schools, with most schools fielding 20+ different sports teams. Major sports include:\r\n- Football (where Ernest Dawson was the first Black player at PHS)\r\n- Basketball (Dick Appleyard's sport)\r\n- Baseball/Softball\r\n- Track & Field\r\n- Soccer\r\n- Wrestling\r\n- Swimming\r\n\r\n**Historical Context and Current Challenges**\r\n\r\nEscambia High School's troubled racial history - from its segregated opening in 1958 to the 1976 riots over Confederate symbols - shows how far the district has come. The federal courts banned racially divisive symbols in 1973, and schools have worked to create more inclusive environments.\r\n\r\nHowever, challenges remain. Some schools struggle with \"school spirit\" and maintaining successful programs across all sports. But where athletic programs thrive, they continue to bring diverse students together.\r\n\r\n**Building on Success**\r\n\r\nCommunity Partnership Schools and other initiatives are working to close achievement gaps, but sports remain one of the most organic ways for students to form cross-race friendships. As Dawson reflected: \"Many times, because of that distance the interaction wasn't positive because you came in with a certain mindset and so did they.\" Sports help break down those preconceived notions through shared experience.\r\n\r\nThis question will help measure whether the unifying power of athletics that brought Appleyard and Dawson together continues to work for today's students in Escambia County." }, { "id": 39155, "title": "By 2029, will majority-Black and majority-White schools in Escambia County receive roughly equal funding per student?", "short_title": "Equal School Funding in Escambia by 2029?", "url_title": "Equal School Funding in Escambia by 2029?", "slug": "equal-school-funding-in-escambia-by-2029", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:56:19.362014Z", "published_at": "2025-08-14T23:56:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.999491Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-14T23:56:42.677188Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-14T23:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38498, "title": "By 2029, will majority-Black and majority-White schools in Escambia County receive roughly equal funding per student?", "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:56:19.362474Z", "open_time": "2025-08-14T23:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-14T23:58:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-14T23:58:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson's friendship](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) during school integration reminds us that equity in education has been a decades-long struggle in Escambia County. While their story shows the power of integrated sports programs to build bridges, underlying resource inequities persist.\r\n\r\n**The Historical Context**\r\n\r\nEscambia County has been at the forefront of Florida's school funding battles. In 1979, the [Escambia County School Board sued Florida's Department of Education](https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/funding-floridas-k-12-public-schools-inadequacy-breeds-inequity) (Gindl v. Department of Education), arguing that discretionary millage levies created unequal effects on school finances that violated equal protection clauses. This case highlighted how \"property-poor\" districts face significant resource disadvantages - a problem that continues today.\r\n\r\n**Current Demographics and Disparities**\r\n\r\nEscambia County School District serves approximately 37,851 students with the following demographics:\r\n- 44.9% White students\r\n- 34.3% Black students \r\n- 9.8% Hispanic students\r\n- 8% multiracial students\r\n\r\nWhile the district overall spends $10,878 per student according to [U.S. News data](https://www.usnews.com/education/k12/florida/districts/escambia-104710), this average masks significant within-district disparities. The district has [closed or consolidated 19 schools since 2002](https://www.wuwf.org/civics-101/2024-10-04/ballot-explainer-escambia-county-half-cent-school-tax-renewal), mostly in Black neighborhoods, raising concerns about equitable resource distribution.\r\n\r\n**National and State Context**\r\n\r\nResearch consistently shows that [districts serving predominantly students of color receive substantially less funding](https://edtrust.org/press-room/school-districts-that-serve-students-of-color-receive-significantly-less-funding/) - nationally about $2,700 less per student. Florida ranks particularly poorly on education funding equity:\r\n\r\n- [Florida receives an \"F\" grade](https://edlawcenter.org/making-the-grade-2024-education-funding-disparities-persist-as-some-states-prioritize-tax-cuts-and-privatization/) for funding level, distribution, and effort from the Education Law Center\r\n- The state provides 12% less funding to high-poverty districts compared to low-poverty districts\r\n- Florida devotes only 2.78% of its economic capacity to K-12 education, well below the national average\r\n\r\n**Progress and Challenges**\r\n\r\nSome initiatives are working to address these inequities:\r\n- [Community Partnership Schools](https://chsfl.org/updates/news/many-escambia-students-are-struggling-community-partnership-schools-may-be-the-answer/) at C.A. Weis Elementary, Pine Forest High, and Bellview Middle are showing promising results in closing achievement gaps\r\n- The half-cent sales tax for school improvements generates about $40 million annually for facility upgrades\r\n\r\nHowever, major challenges remain:\r\n- Florida's education funding formula doesn't account for student poverty levels\r\n- The state's expansion of voucher programs diverts [$3.9 billion](https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/florida-continues-to-drain-much-needed-funds-away-from-public-schools-to-private-and-home-school-students) from public schools\r\n- Local property tax disparities continue to drive funding inequities\r\n\r\nAs Dick Appleyard noted in the WUWF article, \"there's so much to be done in the communities and in education\" - achieving funding equity is essential for giving all students the opportunities they deserve.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\r\n\r\nThis question will resolve based on per-student funding data comparing majority-Black schools (>50% Black students) to majority-White schools (>50% White students) within Escambia County School District.\r\n\r\n**Data Sources:**\r\n- Primary: Florida Department of Education's annual School Financial Report\r\n- Secondary: Escambia County School District budget reports\r\n- Tertiary: Independent analysis from organizations like Education Law Center or EdTrust\r\n\r\n**Funding Components to Include:**\r\n- State FEFP (Florida Education Finance Program) allocations per school\r\n- Local property tax revenues allocated to each school\r\n- Federal Title I and other federal program funds\r\n- District discretionary allocations\r\n- Capital expenditures averaged over 3 years\r\n\r\n**Resolution Criteria:**\r\n- Calculate average per-student funding for all majority-Black schools\r\n- Calculate average per-student funding for all majority-White schools \r\n- Determine the percentage difference: |(Black - White) / White| × 100\r\n\r\n**Resolution:**\r\n- **YES** if the funding gap is less than 10% (roughly equal)\r\n- **NO** if the funding gap is 10% or greater\r\n\r\n**Important Notes:**\r\n- Charter schools will be excluded from this analysis\r\n- If racial composition data becomes unavailable, use schools with >75% students eligible for free/reduced lunch vs. <25% eligible as a proxy\r\n- If school-level funding data is not available by 2029, the question resolves as AMBIGUOUS", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39155, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755218215.404949, "end_time": 1763169945.153, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755218215.404949, "end_time": 1763169945.153, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.11041176470588233 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson's friendship](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) during school integration reminds us that equity in education has been a decades-long struggle in Escambia County. While their story shows the power of integrated sports programs to build bridges, underlying resource inequities persist.\r\n\r\n**The Historical Context**\r\n\r\nEscambia County has been at the forefront of Florida's school funding battles. In 1979, the [Escambia County School Board sued Florida's Department of Education](https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/funding-floridas-k-12-public-schools-inadequacy-breeds-inequity) (Gindl v. Department of Education), arguing that discretionary millage levies created unequal effects on school finances that violated equal protection clauses. This case highlighted how \"property-poor\" districts face significant resource disadvantages - a problem that continues today.\r\n\r\n**Current Demographics and Disparities**\r\n\r\nEscambia County School District serves approximately 37,851 students with the following demographics:\r\n- 44.9% White students\r\n- 34.3% Black students \r\n- 9.8% Hispanic students\r\n- 8% multiracial students\r\n\r\nWhile the district overall spends $10,878 per student according to [U.S. News data](https://www.usnews.com/education/k12/florida/districts/escambia-104710), this average masks significant within-district disparities. The district has [closed or consolidated 19 schools since 2002](https://www.wuwf.org/civics-101/2024-10-04/ballot-explainer-escambia-county-half-cent-school-tax-renewal), mostly in Black neighborhoods, raising concerns about equitable resource distribution.\r\n\r\n**National and State Context**\r\n\r\nResearch consistently shows that [districts serving predominantly students of color receive substantially less funding](https://edtrust.org/press-room/school-districts-that-serve-students-of-color-receive-significantly-less-funding/) - nationally about $2,700 less per student. Florida ranks particularly poorly on education funding equity:\r\n\r\n- [Florida receives an \"F\" grade](https://edlawcenter.org/making-the-grade-2024-education-funding-disparities-persist-as-some-states-prioritize-tax-cuts-and-privatization/) for funding level, distribution, and effort from the Education Law Center\r\n- The state provides 12% less funding to high-poverty districts compared to low-poverty districts\r\n- Florida devotes only 2.78% of its economic capacity to K-12 education, well below the national average\r\n\r\n**Progress and Challenges**\r\n\r\nSome initiatives are working to address these inequities:\r\n- [Community Partnership Schools](https://chsfl.org/updates/news/many-escambia-students-are-struggling-community-partnership-schools-may-be-the-answer/) at C.A. Weis Elementary, Pine Forest High, and Bellview Middle are showing promising results in closing achievement gaps\r\n- The half-cent sales tax for school improvements generates about $40 million annually for facility upgrades\r\n\r\nHowever, major challenges remain:\r\n- Florida's education funding formula doesn't account for student poverty levels\r\n- The state's expansion of voucher programs diverts [$3.9 billion](https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/florida-continues-to-drain-much-needed-funds-away-from-public-schools-to-private-and-home-school-students) from public schools\r\n- Local property tax disparities continue to drive funding inequities\r\n\r\nAs Dick Appleyard noted in the WUWF article, \"there's so much to be done in the communities and in education\" - achieving funding equity is essential for giving all students the opportunities they deserve." }, { "id": 39152, "title": "By 2027, will at least 30% of Escambia County schools achieve racial balance reflecting the district's overall demographics?", "short_title": "Escambia Schools Integration Progress by 2027?", "url_title": "Escambia Schools Integration Progress by 2027?", "slug": "escambia-schools-integration-progress-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:35:40.293380Z", "published_at": "2025-08-14T23:35:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.448037Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-14T23:36:15.558809Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-14T23:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38495, "title": "By 2027, will at least 30% of Escambia County schools achieve racial balance reflecting the district's overall demographics?", "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:35:40.293795Z", "open_time": "2025-08-14T23:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-14T23:37:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-14T23:37:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "More than 50 years after the integration of Pensacola High School, Escambia County schools continue to grapple with racial segregation. The [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) highlights how sports and personal relationships helped bridge racial divides during the turbulent integration period of the late 1960s. Yet today, many schools remain largely segregated.\r\n\r\nAccording to [ProPublica's Miseducation database](https://projects.propublica.org/miseducation/district/0101350), segregation between Black and White students in Escambia County is rated as \"High,\" indicating that the distribution of these racial groups among schools is very uneven. While the district overall is 44.9% White and 34.3% Black according to [U.S. News data](https://www.usnews.com/education/k12/florida/districts/escambia-104710), individual schools often don't reflect this diversity.\r\n\r\nThe [WUWF article](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) quotes Dawson reflecting on the integration era: \"If you came up in a school in Pensacola, where you went with black kids all your life, and you look to the white kids and you don't really know... That's how you saw them, until you're right next to them.\" This separation continues today in many schools.\r\n\r\nResearch shows that racially integrated schools benefit all students academically and socially, fostering the kind of cross-racial friendships that Appleyard and Dawson exemplify. Achieving racial balance in schools is essential for the Equity Project Alliance's vision of confronting systemic racism and creating an equitable Escambia where all students can learn together and thrive.\r\n\r\nInitiatives like school choice programs, boundary adjustments, magnet programs, and the Escambia Children's Trust investments could help create more integrated learning environments where students of all backgrounds learn side by side, as the integration pioneers of the 1960s envisioned.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\r\n\r\nThis question will resolve based on enrollment data from Escambia County Schools and/or the Florida Department of Education.\r\n\r\n**How we'll measure this:**\r\n- A school is \"racially balanced\" if no single racial group differs from the district average by more than 20 percentage points\r\n- District demographics (approximately): 45% White, 34% Black, 10% Hispanic, 11% Other\r\n- We'll check what percentage of schools meet this balance threshold\r\n\r\n**Resolution:** \r\n- **YES** if at least 30% of Escambia County public schools achieve racial balance\r\n- **NO** if fewer than 30% of schools achieve racial balance\r\n\r\nData sources: Escambia County Schools enrollment reports or Florida DOE school demographics data.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39152, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755303550.285, "end_time": 1762718580.891, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755303550.285, "end_time": 1762718580.891, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2142105263157895 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "More than 50 years after the integration of Pensacola High School, Escambia County schools continue to grapple with racial segregation. The [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) highlights how sports and personal relationships helped bridge racial divides during the turbulent integration period of the late 1960s. Yet today, many schools remain largely segregated.\r\n\r\nAccording to [ProPublica's Miseducation database](https://projects.propublica.org/miseducation/district/0101350), segregation between Black and White students in Escambia County is rated as \"High,\" indicating that the distribution of these racial groups among schools is very uneven. While the district overall is 44.9% White and 34.3% Black according to [U.S. News data](https://www.usnews.com/education/k12/florida/districts/escambia-104710), individual schools often don't reflect this diversity.\r\n\r\nThe [WUWF article](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) quotes Dawson reflecting on the integration era: \"If you came up in a school in Pensacola, where you went with black kids all your life, and you look to the white kids and you don't really know... That's how you saw them, until you're right next to them.\" This separation continues today in many schools.\r\n\r\nResearch shows that racially integrated schools benefit all students academically and socially, fostering the kind of cross-racial friendships that Appleyard and Dawson exemplify. Achieving racial balance in schools is essential for the Equity Project Alliance's vision of confronting systemic racism and creating an equitable Escambia where all students can learn together and thrive.\r\n\r\nInitiatives like school choice programs, boundary adjustments, magnet programs, and the Escambia Children's Trust investments could help create more integrated learning environments where students of all backgrounds learn side by side, as the integration pioneers of the 1960s envisioned." }, { "id": 39150, "title": "By 2028, will Escambia County schools significantly reduce the gap in suspension rates between Black and White students?", "short_title": "Escambia School Discipline Gap Reduced by 2028?", "url_title": "Escambia School Discipline Gap Reduced by 2028?", "slug": "escambia-school-discipline-gap-reduced-by-2028", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:32:30.427795Z", "published_at": "2025-08-14T23:32:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.875251Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-14T23:32:59.359637Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-06-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-14T23:33:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38493, "title": "By 2028, will Escambia County schools significantly reduce the gap in suspension rates between Black and White students?", "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:32:30.428292Z", "open_time": "2025-08-14T23:33:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-14T23:34:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-14T23:34:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-06-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Equity Project Alliance works to confront systemic racism in Escambia County, where school discipline disparities represent a critical barrier to educational equity. These disparities echo the challenges faced during school integration, as highlighted in the recent [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson's friendship during integration at Pensacola High School](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration).\r\n\r\nAccording to the [Achieve Escambia 2020 report](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2020-12-08/achieve-escambia-report-takes-aim-at-racial-disparity), there are significant gaps in student suspension rates between Black and White students in Escambia County. These disparities in \"retention, suspension, expulsion, all work together to produce juvenile incarceration disparities\" - creating what many call the school-to-prison pipeline.\r\n\r\n[National data shows Black students are 4 times more likely to experience suspension than their White peers](https://ballardbrief.byu.edu/issue-briefs/racial-inequality-in-public-school-discipline-for-black-students-in-the-united-states). In Florida specifically, research has documented persistent racial disparities in school discipline, with Black students experiencing out-of-school suspensions at rates 2-3 times higher than White students.\r\n\r\nThe [WUWF article](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) quotes Dick Appleyard emphasizing that \"the solution comes through children learning at a very early age and being ready for school\" - but punitive discipline practices that disproportionately affect Black students undermine this goal by removing them from learning opportunities.\r\n\r\nHope for change comes from evidence-based alternatives like restorative justice programs, teacher training on implicit bias, and the newly approved Escambia Children's Trust which can fund interventions. Some districts have successfully reduced discipline gaps by 50% or more through comprehensive reforms. Tracking this metric ensures accountability for creating schools where all students can learn and thrive.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\r\n\r\nThis question will resolve based on official discipline data from Escambia County Schools and/or the Florida Department of Education.\r\n\r\n**How we'll measure this:**\r\n- Compare the suspension rates for Black students vs White students\r\n- Calculate if the gap has decreased by at least 25% from 2025 baseline\r\n- Data sources: [Florida Department of Education discipline data](https://www.fldoe.org/safe-schools/discipline-data.stml) or Escambia County Schools reports\r\n\r\n**Resolution:** \r\n- **YES** if the suspension rate gap decreases by 25% or more from 2025 levels\r\n- **NO** if the gap decreases by less than 25%\r\n\r\nExample: If Black students have a 15% suspension rate and White students have a 5% rate in 2025 (gap of 10 percentage points), the question resolves YES if the gap falls to 7.5 percentage points or less by 2028.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39150, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755218948.958076, "end_time": 1763169438.055, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755218948.958076, "end_time": 1763169438.055, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1901379310344827 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Equity Project Alliance works to confront systemic racism in Escambia County, where school discipline disparities represent a critical barrier to educational equity. These disparities echo the challenges faced during school integration, as highlighted in the recent [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson's friendship during integration at Pensacola High School](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration).\r\n\r\nAccording to the [Achieve Escambia 2020 report](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2020-12-08/achieve-escambia-report-takes-aim-at-racial-disparity), there are significant gaps in student suspension rates between Black and White students in Escambia County. These disparities in \"retention, suspension, expulsion, all work together to produce juvenile incarceration disparities\" - creating what many call the school-to-prison pipeline.\r\n\r\n[National data shows Black students are 4 times more likely to experience suspension than their White peers](https://ballardbrief.byu.edu/issue-briefs/racial-inequality-in-public-school-discipline-for-black-students-in-the-united-states). In Florida specifically, research has documented persistent racial disparities in school discipline, with Black students experiencing out-of-school suspensions at rates 2-3 times higher than White students.\r\n\r\nThe [WUWF article](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) quotes Dick Appleyard emphasizing that \"the solution comes through children learning at a very early age and being ready for school\" - but punitive discipline practices that disproportionately affect Black students undermine this goal by removing them from learning opportunities.\r\n\r\nHope for change comes from evidence-based alternatives like restorative justice programs, teacher training on implicit bias, and the newly approved Escambia Children's Trust which can fund interventions. Some districts have successfully reduced discipline gaps by 50% or more through comprehensive reforms. Tracking this metric ensures accountability for creating schools where all students can learn and thrive." }, { "id": 39149, "title": "Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?", "short_title": "US-China AGI-limiting treaty signed before 2030?", "url_title": "US-China AGI-limiting treaty signed before 2030?", "slug": "us-china-agi-limiting-treaty-signed-before-2030", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:09:33.254897Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:39:06Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:02:00.510157Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:39:27.915778Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.288248Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32819, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Tool AI Pathway", "slug": "toolai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_dnLSFt7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:38:11.835400Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:27:03.350300Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38492, "title": "Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?", "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:09:33.255264Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question tests whether geopolitical actors will formalize guardrails on AGI development. In the Tool AI scenario, international tensions push some countries to double down on speed, while others prioritize safety, transparency, and coordination. A treaty specifically addressing AGI development—especially with verification—would represent a major institutional step toward the scenario’s preferred path of non-agentic AI.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the following conditions are met before January 1, 2031:\n\n1. An official treaty or accord is signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Chinese governments.\n2. The agreement explicitly includes legally-binding provisions to limit the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). \n3. The agreement establishes verification mechanisms, such as mutual inspections, data sharing, or third-party monitoring.", "fine_print": "Non-binding declarations or joint statements will not be considered sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe agreement must specifically address AGI. Agreements focused on narrow AI or general technology controls without AGI-specific limitations will result in a \"No\" resolution.\n\nIf either government publicly repudiates the agreement before the end of 2030, the question will be resolved as \"No.\"\n\nTreaties that require legislative ratification will be resolved based on the date of the executive signing.\n\nThis question generally does not define AGI and relies on the definition posed by the treaty or accord. However, if there is terminology (e.g., \"ultra-advanced AI\") which is defined by the agreement as meaning a system capable of performing human-level cognitive tasks across a wide range of domains without specific programming for those tasks, or an equivalent definition, then that terminology will count as synonymous with AGI for the purposes of this question.\n\nThe treaty or accord need not be bilateral. A multilateral treaty or accord counts as well.\n\nAs stated in the Resolution Criteria, any agreement must explicitly cover AGI as described in these criteria. A treaty or accord about AI concepts such as \"dangerous AI\" or \"advanced AI\" will not count if it does not explicitly cover AGI as described here.", "post_id": 39149, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762243309.695862, "end_time": 1764658917.472, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762243309.695862, "end_time": 1764658917.472, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.12318108891670723 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.1880031662432273, 0.45592162942152825, 0.9147237428182073, 0.17611521464665386, 2.044298261544091, 2.106064317752849, 0.34580821014957386, 0.013430185764015407, 0.0, 0.04322127578775498, 0.6253639737691313, 0.0, 0.05612638148255465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06741919659503044, 0.0, 0.7250745315089938, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0509089809229426, 0.01314514673938087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003341999642790191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6796463936671924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0026392673132747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14409911274774573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1698499412575147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.555001365518943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question tests whether geopolitical actors will formalize guardrails on AGI development. In the Tool AI scenario, international tensions push some countries to double down on speed, while others prioritize safety, transparency, and coordination. A treaty specifically addressing AGI development—especially with verification—would represent a major institutional step toward the scenario’s preferred path of non-agentic AI.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)" }, { "id": 39147, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?", "short_title": "Will SCOTUS grant cert in Davis v. Ermold before January 15, 2026?", "url_title": "Will SCOTUS grant cert in Davis v. Ermold before January 15, 2026?", "slug": "will-scotus-grant-cert-in-davis-v-ermold-before-january-15-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-14T19:04:44.540745Z", "published_at": "2025-08-14T20:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T18:00:18.641625Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-14T20:47:05.540994Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-14T20:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T01:49:35.001412Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T01:49:35.001412Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38489, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-14T19:04:44.541380Z", "open_time": "2025-08-14T20:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-15T01:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-15T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-15T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In July 2025, Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk jailed in 2015 for refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple on religious grounds, [filed an appeal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/12/trump-same-sex-marriage/85614479007/) with the Supreme Court to have the Court overturn \\$360,000 in emotional damages and attorneys' fees that a lower court held she must pay.\n\nAccording to [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court-faces-decision-same-sex-marriages-2111822):\n\n> Davis' attorney, Matthew Staver, told *Newsweek* he is optimistic the court will take the case. William Powell, the attorney who represented the couple that sued Davis, wrote in a statement provided to *Newsweek* he is \"confident the Supreme Court will likewise agree that Davis's arguments do not merit further attention.\"\n>  \n> Daniel Urman, law professor at Northeastern University, told *Newsweek* it is unlikely the Supreme Court would agree to overturn same-sex marriage.\n>  \n> . . . \n>  \n> The case, filed by Davis—a former Kentucky clerk who spent six days in jail over her refusal to provide marriage certificates to same-sex couples on religious grounds—could represent a threat to federal protections for same-sex marriage one decade after the nation's highest court legalized the unions across the country.\n\nThe US Supreme Court's 2015 decision in *Obergefell v. Hodges* [held](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2014/14-556) in a 5-4 opinion that the due process clause of the 14th Amendment guarantees the right to marriage to both opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples. In the 2022 *Dobbs* decision overturning *Roe v. Wade*, Justice Clarence Thomas [wrote](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256) a concurring opinion saying that the Court \"should reconsider\" its decision in Obergefell. In response, Congress passed the bipartisan [Respect for Marriage Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act) codifying many protections for same-sex marriage, which was signed by then-President Joe Biden on December 13, 2022.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. In the months following, several states [introduced legislation](https://www.them.us/story/gay-marriage-rights-right-wing-overturn-kim-davis-state-legislatures) to roll back Obergefell, including four states offering \"covenant marriages\" between a man and woman. \n\nObergefell's original 5-4 opinion was voted against by three current Supreme Court Justices: Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Samuel Alito. Justice Neil Gorsuch, who joined the Court after Obergefell, [wrote a dissertation](https://time.com/4705941/neil-gorsuch-gay-rights-same-sex-marriage/) mentioning it being \"obvious\" that the US Constitution does not support same-sex marriage. Other conservatives who have joined the Court since Obergefell, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, have refused to directly answer when asked about the decision. (See for example, [The Blade](https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/09/12/kavanaughs-answers-leave-lgbt-legal-experts-unsatisfied/) and [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/barrett-dodges-questions-on-obergefell-case-same-sex-marriage/2020/10/14/9e3e6a51-2489-4f20-8555-1f8c52d32351_video.html).)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 15, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has granted Kim Davis's petition for writ of certiorari in the case of *Kim Davis v. David Ermold; David Moore*. The question immediately resolves as **No** if, prior to such date, the Court denies certiorari or the petition is withdrawn or dismissed, and resolves as **No** if no decision is announced before January 15, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39147, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762192808.129253, "end_time": 1762367741.677, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762192808.129253, "end_time": 1762367741.677, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.34621488171201553 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 1.4975107287506662, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 161, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In July 2025, Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk jailed in 2015 for refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple on religious grounds, [filed an appeal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/12/trump-same-sex-marriage/85614479007/) with the Supreme Court to have the Court overturn \\$360,000 in emotional damages and attorneys' fees that a lower court held she must pay.\n\nAccording to [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court-faces-decision-same-sex-marriages-2111822):\n\n> Davis' attorney, Matthew Staver, told *Newsweek* he is optimistic the court will take the case. William Powell, the attorney who represented the couple that sued Davis, wrote in a statement provided to *Newsweek* he is \"confident the Supreme Court will likewise agree that Davis's arguments do not merit further attention.\"\n>  \n> Daniel Urman, law professor at Northeastern University, told *Newsweek* it is unlikely the Supreme Court would agree to overturn same-sex marriage.\n>  \n> . . . \n>  \n> The case, filed by Davis—a former Kentucky clerk who spent six days in jail over her refusal to provide marriage certificates to same-sex couples on religious grounds—could represent a threat to federal protections for same-sex marriage one decade after the nation's highest court legalized the unions across the country.\n\nThe US Supreme Court's 2015 decision in *Obergefell v. Hodges* [held](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2014/14-556) in a 5-4 opinion that the due process clause of the 14th Amendment guarantees the right to marriage to both opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples. In the 2022 *Dobbs* decision overturning *Roe v. Wade*, Justice Clarence Thomas [wrote](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256) a concurring opinion saying that the Court \"should reconsider\" its decision in Obergefell. In response, Congress passed the bipartisan [Respect for Marriage Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act) codifying many protections for same-sex marriage, which was signed by then-President Joe Biden on December 13, 2022.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. In the months following, several states [introduced legislation](https://www.them.us/story/gay-marriage-rights-right-wing-overturn-kim-davis-state-legislatures) to roll back Obergefell, including four states offering \"covenant marriages\" between a man and woman. \n\nObergefell's original 5-4 opinion was voted against by three current Supreme Court Justices: Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Samuel Alito. Justice Neil Gorsuch, who joined the Court after Obergefell, [wrote a dissertation](https://time.com/4705941/neil-gorsuch-gay-rights-same-sex-marriage/) mentioning it being \"obvious\" that the US Constitution does not support same-sex marriage. Other conservatives who have joined the Court since Obergefell, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, have refused to directly answer when asked about the decision. (See for example, [The Blade](https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/09/12/kavanaughs-answers-leave-lgbt-legal-experts-unsatisfied/) and [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/barrett-dodges-questions-on-obergefell-case-same-sex-marriage/2020/10/14/9e3e6a51-2489-4f20-8555-1f8c52d32351_video.html).)" } ] }
