Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=560
{ "count": 5526, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=580", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=540", "results": [ { "id": 35701, "title": "Will bluebird bio file for bankruptcy before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bluebird-bio-file-for-bankruptcy-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:19.463231Z", "published_at": "2025-03-07T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:45:04.676757Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-07T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35151, "title": "Will bluebird bio file for bankruptcy before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:19.463231Z", "open_time": "2025-03-07T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T20:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T20:38:27.212081Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters: [Bluebird bio to cut 25% of jobs in fresh bid to battle cash crunch](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/bluebird-bio-cut-25-workforce-part-restructuring-2024-09-24/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if bluebird bio, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before April 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35701, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741348184.452253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19399999999999998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741348184.452253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19399999999999998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17635098110542924 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6376996866280927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1283468540955193, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1930098103896003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.4789264546165807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.85235249456147, "peer_score": 4.173262288165633, "coverage": 0.9813207664092382, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9813207664092382, "spot_peer_score": 1.1704331667007069, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 83.85235249456147, "peer_archived_score": 4.173262288165633, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.1704331667007069, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [Bluebird bio to cut 25% of jobs in fresh bid to battle cash crunch](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/bluebird-bio-cut-25-workforce-part-restructuring-2024-09-24/)" }, { "id": 35700, "title": "Will the National UFO Reporting Center report a sighting of a cube-shaped UFO in March 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-national-ufo-reporting-center-report-a-sighting-of-a-cube-shaped-ufo-in-march-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:19.432579Z", "published_at": "2025-03-07T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:31.293137Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-07T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35150, "title": "Will the National UFO Reporting Center report a sighting of a cube-shaped UFO in March 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:19.432579Z", "open_time": "2025-03-07T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T20:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T20:34:30.323869Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts a report of a sighting of a UFO/UAP shaped like a cube in March 2025 at [this link](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "For example, although rare in the history of NUFORC, the month of December 2024 [had](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=e202412) six sightings with a cube shape.", "post_id": 35700, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741348184.637997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741348184.637997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.16470602813942223 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5089136360673787, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 1.0456204770450541, 0.0, 0.5155575000105868, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2279280136360515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7613006392846159, 0.0, 2.578740181021089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -148.4159228068037, "peer_score": 1.6731528081025502, "coverage": 0.9866989699999491, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9866989699999491, "spot_peer_score": 17.71506538197975, "spot_baseline_score": -147.39311883324126, "baseline_archived_score": -148.4159228068037, "peer_archived_score": 1.6731528081025502, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.71506538197975, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -147.39311883324126 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"" }, { "id": 35699, "title": "Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 400 for March 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-ufo-sightings-reported-by-the-national-ufo-reporting-center-exceed-400-for-march-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:19.401580Z", "published_at": "2025-03-07T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:55.355536Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-07T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35149, "title": "Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 400 for March 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:19.401580Z", "open_time": "2025-03-07T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T01:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-03T01:23:36.553813Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts greater than 400 UFO/UAP sighting reports at [this link](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) for the month of March 2025, as displayed when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35699, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741348295.404803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741348295.404803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2975994866216837 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.9611807844480444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5189501885822867, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9941409785796557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5589803631771832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6704211885037169, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.722108255103842, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.83250364210737, "peer_score": 8.592742580144227, "coverage": 0.9934652072191239, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9934652072191239, "spot_peer_score": 5.152075897274564, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 43.83250364210737, "peer_archived_score": 8.592742580144227, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.152075897274564, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. 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In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) OpenAI filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [news](https://www.chime.com/blog/) section of its website. 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In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) The company filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [news](https://www.rippling.com/blog) section of its website. 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Amazon still list a 12-pack of Coca-Cola as \"SNAP EBT eligible\" on April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:18.820518Z", "open_time": "2025-03-06T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-06T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-06T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T02:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T02:17:46.056715Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-06T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-06T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a 12-page of Coca-Cola at [this link](https://www.amazon.com/Coca-Cola-Soda-Soft-Drink-Pack/dp/B000T9WLTK?ref_=ast_sto_dp&th=1), when accessed by Metaculus from the United States on or after April 1, 2025, is listed using the exact phrase \"SNAP EBT eligible\"(forecasters please note that it *is* listed as such on February 19, 2025). If it is *not* listed as SNAP EBT eligible when checked by Metataculus on or after April 1, 2025, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The link in the resolution criteria is provided for convenience, but if Amazon's primary listing for a 12-pack of canned Coca-Cola appears elsewhere, then that will be used for resolution. In order to streamline resolution, synonyms or rephrasings will not count; the phrase must specifically be \"SNAP EBT eligible\".", "post_id": 35690, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741294508.086441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741294508.086441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8609210076208461 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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something that can can be purchased by recipients of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. (Forecasters please note that it *is* explicitly mentioned as of February 19, 2025.) If it is *not* explicitly mentioned when checked by Metataculus on or after April 1, 2025, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "In order to streamline resolution, synonyms will not count; the phrase must specifically be \"snack foods.\" The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. 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Question resolves based on the value shown at the specific webpage listed. Should the webpage be offline on April 1, 2025, resolution will wait until the end of this tournament's resolutions, at which time if the page is still down the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 35688, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741164921.98194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741164921.98194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8776060204494049 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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If a tweet (now renamed to X post) containing the phrase is seen by a Metaculus Admin at that time, this question resolves as **Yes**. 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Trump issues a [presidential action](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) mentioning the \"Diversity Visa\" (using exactly those words). If this does not occur before that date, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "To count, the presidential action must be published and publicly accessible (likely appearing on the presidential actions section of the White House website) before the specified time. 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T21:45:36.369145Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe Rubik's Cube was invented in 1974, released in 1980, and had its first world 'speedcubing' championship [just 8 years later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speedcubing#History). The winner achieved a world record of 22.95 seconds. Since then, [17 more people](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) have held this record, lowering the time to below 4 seconds. Speedcubers use memorized algorithms to solve the Rubik's Cube and top performances rely on choosing the fastest option and executing it flawlessly.\n\nAs of January 17, 2025, three performances are separated by the rest. While 20 people [have achieved](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) a time below 4s, only 3 have achieved one below 3.44s:\n\n* Max Park in 2023 (3.13s)\n* Ruihang Xu (许瑞航) in 2024 (3.24s)\n* Yiheng Wang (王艺衡) in 2024 (3.27s)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, the [World Cube Association](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) reports that a person besides Max Park, Ruihang Xu, and Yiheng Wang has achieved a single time below 3.44s at solving the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube at an [official event](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/competitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35665, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741017427.792524, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1525 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.496 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741017427.792524, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1525 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.496 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.37232031189530185 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20040048597024865, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 1.378748230052289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6707135414768655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6761370961605792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25190162765868773, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 48.66255066264662, "peer_score": 6.276325633709115, "coverage": 0.8960929705699285, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8960929705699285, "spot_peer_score": 2.522718216789515, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 48.66255066264662, "peer_archived_score": 6.276325633709115, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.522718216789515, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe Rubik's Cube was invented in 1974, released in 1980, and had its first world 'speedcubing' championship [just 8 years later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speedcubing#History). The winner achieved a world record of 22.95 seconds. Since then, [17 more people](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) have held this record, lowering the time to below 4 seconds. Speedcubers use memorized algorithms to solve the Rubik's Cube and top performances rely on choosing the fastest option and executing it flawlessly.\n\nAs of January 17, 2025, three performances are separated by the rest. While 20 people [have achieved](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) a time below 4s, only 3 have achieved one below 3.44s:\n\n* Max Park in 2023 (3.13s)\n* Ruihang Xu (许瑞航) in 2024 (3.24s)\n* Yiheng Wang (王艺衡) in 2024 (3.27s)" } ] }
