Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5600
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5620", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5580", "results": [ { "id": 3145, "title": "If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "if-donald-trump-is-impeached-by-the-us-house-of-representatives-will-the-us-senate-take-the-referral-to-a-vote", "author_id": 100014, "author_username": "converse", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-09-28T20:30:16.239034Z", "published_at": "2019-10-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.869382Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-10-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-11-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-11-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-30T13:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-30T13:53:00Z", "open_time": "2019-10-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3145, "title": "If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?", "created_at": "2019-09-28T20:30:16.239034Z", "open_time": "2019-10-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-10-01T15:17:42.182283Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-10-01T15:17:42.182283Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-30T13:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-30T13:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-30T13:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-11-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-11-15T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "There is discussion in the political press about whether Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would be required to take articles of impeachment to a trial, and some [make the case that he could block a trial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/09/27/if-house-impeaches-trump-mitch-mcconnells-senate-can-simply-ignore-it/), as he has blocked many other legislative efforts passed to the Senate from the House.\n\nAt a minimum, it would be a substantial break with historical precedent if the House impeached the President, referred articles of impeachment to the Senate, and yet the Senate declined to vote one way or the other on the referral.\n\n*This question will resolve positively if, before the end of Trump's first term, articles of impeachment are referred by the House and are then subjected to a vote by the full Senate. It will resolve negatively if, by the end of Trump's first term he has been impeached by the House but no such vote by the Senate has been held. It will resolve ambiguously if Trump is not impeached by the House by the end of his first term, or if Trump leaves office before any impeachment by the House.*\n\nIf more than one set of articles of impeachment are referred to the Senate at different times, only the first referral will be considered for the purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3145, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1573812718.432455, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1573812718.432455, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8688600384975107 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.004923348169013251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1573788010.932279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1573788010.932279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3841411809228613, 0.6158588190771387 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3140, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-cut-the-federal-funds-target-rate-or-lower-bound-to-0-or-lower-before-january-1-2021", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-09-28T04:58:39.645898Z", "published_at": "2019-10-01T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.994980Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-10-01T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-15T21:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-15T21:10:00Z", "open_time": "2019-10-01T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3140, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?", "created_at": "2019-09-28T04:58:39.645898Z", "open_time": "2019-10-01T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-15T21:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-15T21:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-15T21:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In the United States, the [federal funds rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate) is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Reserve balances are amounts held at the Federal Reserve to maintain depository institutions' reserve requirements. Institutions with surplus balances in their accounts lend those balances to institutions in need of larger balances. The federal funds rate is an important benchmark in financial markets.\n\nThe federal funds target rate is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee; these normally occur eight times a year about seven weeks apart. The Committee may also hold additional meetings and implement target rate changes outside of its normal schedule. \n\n[As of 18 September 2019 the target range for the federal funds rate is 1.75–2.00%](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20190918a.htm). The federal funds target rate has historically been issued as either a percentage (e.g. 3.0%) or a range (e.g. 2.00% – 2.25%).\n\nYou can view the history of Federal Open Market Committee actions [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions). You can view a graph of the history of the federal funds target rate [here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate)\n\nThis question asks: **Before January 1 2021, will the FOMC announce that the federal funds target rate is equal to or less than 0%, or, if a target *range* is given, will the *lower* bound of that target range be equal to or less than 0%?**\n\nResolution should cite a press release or other document from the Federal Reserve, or credible media reports in the financial press.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3140, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1583000596.452756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1583000596.452756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 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"baseline_score": -143.4898433252263, "spot_peer_score": 29.669162191470775, "peer_archived_score": -4.143264571655956, "baseline_archived_score": -143.4898433252263, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.669162191470775 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1582904158.619244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1582904158.619244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8806188378122836, 0.11938116218771644 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 160, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3134, "title": "Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-resign-from-the-office-of-us-president-before-the-end-of-his-first-term", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-09-26T17:35:29.368313Z", "published_at": "2019-09-28T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.390583Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-09-28T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-23T11:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-23T11:07:00Z", "open_time": "2019-09-28T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3134, "title": "Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?", "created_at": "2019-09-26T17:35:29.368313Z", "open_time": "2019-09-28T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-09-29T09:32:50.148011Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-09-29T09:32:50.148011Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-23T11:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-23T11:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-23T11:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Following the [Watergate scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watergate_scandal), [an impeachment process against Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) began in the United States House of Representatives on October 30, 1973. \n\nBefore the House could vote on the impeachment resolutions, Nixon made public on August 5, 1974 a transcript of one of the additional conversations, known as the [\"Smoking Gun Tape\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_White_House_tapes#The_%22smoking_gun%22_tape), which made clear his complicity in the cover-up. With his political support completely eroded, Nixon resigned from office on August 9, 1974.\n\nOn September 24, 2019, an impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump was initiated, when Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, announced the beginning of a formal impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump. The inquiry was announced in the wake of an anonymous whistleblower report which alleged a widespread abuse of power, and then coverup, by Donald Trump during his presidency.\n\nIf the investigation proceeds, *and* produces enough evidence to warrant drawing up and/or voting on articles of impeachment, there might be some scenarios under which Trump may be expected to resign. According to an article by [The Week](https://theweek.com/articles/867551/4-impeachment-scenarios):\n\n> Our second option is a variant of the Nixon play: With an impeachment vote pending or accomplished (in Nixon's case, articles were approved in committee but not yet the full House), Trump could resign. As it would allow him to endlessly deny wrongdoing and claim political persecution until the day he dies, this option may be appealing to the president.\n\n**Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if Donald Trump himself, the Financial Times or the New York Times announces that Donald Trump is resigning the office of U.S. president before the inauguration of the candidate that wins the 2020 presidential election (which is currently scheduled for January 20, 2021).\n\nThis question resolves negatively if Donald Trump does not resign and remains president throughout his first term. Moreover, this question resolves negatively if Donald Trump does not resign but for any reason is no longer president before the next scheduled inauguration date (e.g. if he's removed from office, passes away, etc.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3134, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577836286.43905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577836286.43905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.062292982947431796 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 7.337256531374502, 0.9540141675413152, 2.4667577586958016, 1.3254289179703067, 0.13250471942956943, 0.15555735749002636, 0.10506466399436529, 0.5306955022784862, 0.009647069809170485, 0.7267669205946315, 0.3257599169931524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \n\n> The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \n\n> The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \n\nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\n\n> A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\n\n> A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports (cumulatively) payloads of at least 10 metric tons or more by January 1, 2046 .\n\nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \n\nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3127, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763167056.943455, "end_time": 1764004420.318712, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09692705054896314 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763167056.943455, "end_time": 1764004420.318712, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09692705054896314 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.10121810105035708 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.49270733728978283, 5.178893003515571, 1.0556381839589766, 1.0504709095397577, 1.1527314997683584, 0.7156280045377985, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4077631685140621, 0.3743328230494786, 0.23246558220235614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19334140669235372, 0.0, 0.2677408063409973, 0.16538435590012215, 0.0, 0.05344626429555027, 0.0, 0.5269109968754253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034322177175539247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13255575006928536, 0.0, 0.11587675574768214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.208753764822917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0775933119432191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09259910912117526, 0.8833459156529938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02594172897048416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016179044804938477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2812858676324347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0485569039707762 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288581.437932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288581.437932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9844751266837336, 0.015524873316266397 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 186, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \n\n> The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \n\n> The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \n\nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\n\n> A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\n\n> A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not." }, { "id": 3125, "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index", "author_id": 110540, "author_username": "randallburns", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-09-25T00:33:43.159443Z", "published_at": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T20:28:25.642113Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T08:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3125, "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?", "created_at": "2019-09-25T00:33:43.159443Z", "open_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-04-13T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-04-13T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T08:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T08:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\n\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\n\n**Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index]((https://fragilestatesindex.org))?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\n\n\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\n\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths\n) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\n\n> Since 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the number of military deaths across all branches of the US armed forces is greater than 3,000 in any calendar year between 2019 and 2031 (inclusive), according to the [Congressional Research Service](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/details?prodcode=IF10899). Deaths should include all branches of the US armed forces and all active duty troops, including mobilized Reserve and Guard components. The estimate should include only \"Non-Overseas Contingency Operations\". Contingency Operations are defined by CRS according to\n\n>Section 101 of Title 10, United States Code, defines a contingency operation as any Secretary of Defense-designated military operation “in which members of the armed forces are or may become involved in military actions, operations, or hostilities against an enemy of the United States or against an opposing military force.\n\nIf data by CRS is not available or complete between 2019 and 2031, Metaculus may select another credible source of data, or resolve as **Ambiguous** at their discretion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3124, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761482439.206598, "end_time": 1765675147.026303, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761482439.206598, "end_time": 1765675147.026303, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.30834372453965303 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289682.490558, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289682.490558, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8688272714111527, 0.1311727285888473 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 177, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths\n) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\n\n> Since 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006." }, { "id": 3121, "title": "Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020", "author_id": 110540, "author_username": "randallburns", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-09-24T08:22:19.101498Z", "published_at": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.696418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T08:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T08:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T04:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T04:26:00Z", "open_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 3121, "title": "Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?", "created_at": "2019-09-24T08:22:19.101498Z", "open_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-09-30T00:01:36.331313Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-09-30T00:01:36.331313Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T04:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-04T04:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-04T04:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-10-30T08:19:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-10-30T08:19:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In 2018, Oregon’s attorney general has approved language for a ballot measure to make psychedelic mushrooms legal. Oregon Public Broadcasting reports that the measure would reduce criminal penalties for the manufacture, delivery and possession of psilocybin — the hallucinogen contained in psychedelic mushrooms [(Oregonlive, 2018)](https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2018/12/psychedelic-mushroom-legalization-effort-in-oregon-gets-ballot-language-approval.html).\n\nThe [Oregon Psilocybin Society](https://psi-2020.org/) is gathering the 112,020 signatures necessary to get the [Oregon Psilocybin Program Initiative](https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Psilocybin_Program_Initiative_(2020)) on the ballot in Oregon as an initiated constitutional amendment on November 3, 2020.\n \n**Will Oregon vote to legalize the medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if the Oregon Psilocybin Program Initiative or a similar measure is placed on the Oregon ballot in the 2020 general election and passes. 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"title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-09-22T07:59:31.089195Z", "published_at": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.100043Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:08:00Z", "open_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": 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"exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3117, "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", "created_at": "2019-09-22T07:59:31.089195Z", "open_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-09-26T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-09-26T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T11:11:34.342953Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\n\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\n\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \n\nThis question asks: **will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?**\n\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3117, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055872.888263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 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0.023267187987808503, 0.1493755613753089, 0.006301310369105261, 0.0028798828583328074, 0.0034079332858514668, 0.3835094569396946, 0.3307535733100695, 0.0, 0.009162066172403779, 0.07709558511263293, 0.019009575680384333, 0.1108659834681533, 0.18804502855550304, 0.0, 0.016335126798566385, 0.004752795253935134, 0.23078107807129683, 0.0, 0.08437735339587639, 0.0, 0.02134152870342287, 0.0037288215013679916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16389416727176553 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -89.93757356665023, "peer_score": 20.018090952998083, "coverage": 0.9999795509346905, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999795509346905, "spot_peer_score": -9.424815379261865, "spot_baseline_score": -55.63933485243855, "baseline_archived_score": -89.93757356665023, "peer_archived_score": 20.018090952998083, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -9.424815379261865, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -55.63933485243855 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055872.916243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055872.916243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5743265341551306, 0.4256734658448694 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 269, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3112, "title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?", "short_title": "Mars has 10,000 residents before the Moon", "url_title": "Mars has 10,000 residents before the Moon", "slug": "mars-has-10000-residents-before-the-moon", "author_id": 109243, "author_username": "SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-09-19T10:55:41.194733Z", "published_at": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T23:53:09.638855Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 245, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3112, "title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?", "created_at": "2019-09-19T10:55:41.194733Z", "open_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-09-26T09:44:26.780000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-09-26T09:44:26.780000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.\n\nStats to consider:\n\n**Distance**\n\n* Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months.\n* The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU).\n\n**One-way communication lag**\n\n* Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes\n* The Moon: ~1.3 seconds\n\n**Gravity**\n\n* Mars: 0.38 g\n* The Moon: 0.17 g\n\n**Rotation period**\n\n* Mars: 25 hours\n* The Moon: 1 month\n\n**Atmosphere**\n\n* Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's.\n* The Moon: negligible if any.\n\n**Solar energy**\n\n* Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing.\n* The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference.", "resolution_criteria": "This question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next. \n\nResidents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.\n\n'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.\n\nIn case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.\n\nResolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763855578.84842, "end_time": 1787412196.284, "forecaster_count": 244, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763855578.84842, "end_time": 1787412196.284, "forecaster_count": 244, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.38334718630445697 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.15369698159092818, 1.3198760091676744, 5.254646964982892e-06, 1.5389174022305679e-06, 0.0, 1.6341613002152848, 0.18413040038629974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0325890165791674, 0.016789722025192678, 0.04369811535149153, 0.1103507348743901, 1.302556815944908, 0.2718028508512591, 0.008988698282206905, 0.1593821343180029, 0.7236547890328197, 0.0, 2.6702860607847514, 0.0, 0.0001277712423579732, 0.00648999117822164, 0.24467390664990107, 2.3929306358793414, 0.0019505033097109068, 0.03933887642397465, 0.08120765147621961, 0.0, 3.0054234809548515, 0.0, 0.008358458152652392, 0.6159939128043947, 0.004001866452964485, 0.5969278247329395, 6.053051237078672e-06, 0.000405556777422191, 0.25158120320050975, 0.6600234668640648, 0.48841425165135044, 0.01547479847576374, 0.29788282572364905, 0.0017522039974988833, 0.08479209890227579, 0.6709235331418855, 7.207979263688556e-05, 0.0, 0.557030376919875, 0.00019365515349315473, 3.66389081757655, 0.1776956901132774, 0.0, 0.31460140036398954, 0.011277218771171271, 0.29531717011177117, 0.19779990267851094, 0.04778653433529836, 0.0, 0.02035043047618493, 0.3846513176405375, 0.00016880378244036294, 0.2125226471185929, 0.0007508162734772806, 1.0, 0.09539314450770511, 0.031262922226186686, 1.1475933003235996, 0.007827048892409372, 0.0, 0.8884068965150644, 0.0003803066490832171, 0.43961727292146896, 0.006803258849145783, 0.12334745194369387, 0.10407777203639054, 0.0007623518736434911, 0.47723147773388414, 0.13774961101130795, 0.0, 0.2650256385625993, 0.0, 0.0, 4.212254838765571e-05, 0.0, 0.17949396925659494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1940578235530461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6598337817235866 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289578.547484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 240, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289578.547484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 240, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6813056974720486, 0.31869430252795145 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 39, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 487, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.\n\nStats to consider:\n\n**Distance**\n\n* Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months.\n* The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU).\n\n**One-way communication lag**\n\n* Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes\n* The Moon: ~1.3 seconds\n\n**Gravity**\n\n* Mars: 0.38 g\n* The Moon: 0.17 g\n\n**Rotation period**\n\n* Mars: 25 hours\n* The Moon: 1 month\n\n**Atmosphere**\n\n* Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's.\n* The Moon: negligible if any.\n\n**Solar energy**\n\n* Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing.\n* The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference." }, { "id": 3111, "title": "Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life", "author_id": 10, "author_username": "Greg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-09-19T03:03:53.353518Z", "published_at": "2019-10-01T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.502547Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-10-01T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2019-11-30T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-11-30T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-10-01T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3111, "title": "Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?", "created_at": "2019-09-19T03:03:53.353518Z", "open_time": "2019-10-01T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-10-03T03:31:42.419281Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-10-03T03:31:42.419281Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2019-11-30T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-11-30T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Recently, planetary astronomers and astrobiologists have been discussing the possibility of introducing a gradated \"life detection scale\", running from 0 to 10, with the goal of telegraphing to the public how much confidence scientists have in any particular intimation that exoplanetary life (or a biosignature) has been detected on a given planet. The scale would be similar in spirit to the [Torino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale) for asteroid threats or the [San Marino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Marino_Scale) for determining risks associated with deliberate transmissions to possible extraterrestrial intelligent life.\n\nThe purpose of this question (and succeeding questions to form a question series) is to explore the feasibility of using Metaculus to determining a probability consensus that can be mapped onto a numerical score.\n\nSo on to the specific question itself. \n\nWater vapor has recently [been detected](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0878-9) (with an independent detection described [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04642)) in the atmosphere of the extrasolar planet [K2-18b](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b), which has roughly three times Earth’s radius, nine times Earth’s mass, and receives a similar radiative flux from its parent star as Earth receives from the Sun. This has led to speculation about whether K2-18b might host life, particularly in the press, e.g. [here](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49648746) and [here](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/first-water-found-in-habitable-exoplanets-atmosphere-hubble-kepler-k2-18b/). Given the level of popular interest, and given the rather startling range of opinions that were evident after the announcement, it seems useful for both domain experts and experts in prediction (here's looking at you, Metaculus users!) to have a forum for providing feedback on this issue. \n\nWe thus ask:\n\n*Will a definitive biosignature be detected on K2-18b?*\n\nResolution is by a measurement and an independent confirming measurement published in the peer-reviewed literature. Positive resolutions are provided by (1) O2 detected in the atmosphere with false positives ruled out, or (2) observation of a significant chemical disequilibrium between CH4 and CO2 in an anoxic atmosphere. Ideally, however, we don't want to limit the question to just these conditions, and moreover, knowledge in the field is advancing quickly. Discussion leading to an improved set of resolution criteria is thus requested. We will consider a time horizon covering the next decade (ending January 1, 2030). There appears to be limited benefit to waiting longer, since K2-18b is close to its star, so it is unlikely to be resolvable by future direct imaging instruments.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3111, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1575058320.308875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1575058320.308875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.06473772779916442 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.154248202644651, 1.1786961371165763, 1.1661069529064148, 0.9292010786173764, 2.089314854952116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5677130138662033, 0.1539321045549336, 0.8976698551473079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6568720698690461, 0.1685193219361709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2011093313353233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3110, "title": "Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?", "created_at": "2019-09-18T08:06:49.182686Z", "open_time": "2019-09-23T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-09-25T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-09-25T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-04-19T11:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-04-19T11:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-04-19T11:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-07-16T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-07-16T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "NASA [is putting](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7489) a [small](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPL_Mars_Helicopter_Scout#Design) (2 kg, 1 m) [helicopter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPL_Mars_Helicopter_Scout) on the [Mars 2020 Rover](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_2020). It is very much a proof of concept, being designed for 5 short (3 min.) flights and only carrying a camera. But it opens the door to much more ambitious powered flight vehicles on Mars and elsewhere.\n\nQuestion: **Will the JPL Mars Helicopeter Scout mounted on the Mars 2020 rover send back at least one picture taken while flying on Mars, conditional on a flight being attempted?**\n\nResolution details:\n\n + The picture must be taken while the helicopter is flying under its own power on Mars.\n + The picture must make it back to earth, and be published by NASA.\n + This resolves negative if a flight is attempted, but no such picture is obtained.\n + This resolves ambiguous if no relevant flight is attempted before 2022.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3110, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1594883161.980385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1594883161.980385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 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"2019-09-19T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3109, "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?", "created_at": "2019-09-17T20:42:10.415652Z", "open_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-09-21T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-09-21T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-18T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-18T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-18T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\n\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.", "resolution_criteria": "Note that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3109, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725851082.212813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725851082.212813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.033926325206156 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.472208721779043, 8.859311277885016, 0.6542216866213598, 0.27181314998523576, 0.30631092942912347, 0.6560715667255018, 0.3530832581430857, 0.0, 0.2260327316299322, 0.0095357691321311, 0.04658261767648145, 0.16466427096054406, 0.0, 0.007837324216462879, 0.04325450585999784, 0.017990599509988367, 0.11607416011398386, 0.0, 0.010489765833368194, 0.12296820185843049, 0.02419259436176608, 0.03188136642829896, 0.0004940915054150324, 0.002539280627490721, 0.0, 0.030226522218439945, 0.0, 0.01938483629159989, 0.1931486488659338, 0.0, 0.046787431378391794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02721846152446844, 0.07663143464076644, 0.09119569679462158, 0.04013091792878877, 0.00021721036730799502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02947235771709421, 0.05012661364798534, 0.01191399397972709, 0.0, 0.0010606664926521671, 0.038335480891298415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002984801894823708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10448482169983318, 0.02511113768417862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004622951861781569, 0.0, 0.012630607718125297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014557515078758613 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.559209005301227, "coverage": 0.999676413712107, "baseline_score": 72.83114239842699, "spot_peer_score": 9.572162549547135, "peer_archived_score": 23.559209005301227, "baseline_archived_score": 72.83114239842699, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.572162549547135 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726474548.362031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726474548.362031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 291, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\n\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud." }, { "id": 3100, "title": "Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-an-eu-country-veto-an-extension-of-brexits-deliberation-before-oct-31st-2019", "author_id": 100597, "author_username": "ghabs", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-09-13T17:48:35.644706Z", "published_at": "2019-09-15T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.500322Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-09-15T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-11-01T13:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-11-01T13:10:00Z", "open_time": "2019-09-15T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3100, "title": "Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?", "created_at": "2019-09-13T17:48:35.644706Z", "open_time": "2019-09-15T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-09-16T14:01:59.768349Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-09-16T14:01:59.768349Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-11-01T13:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-11-01T13:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-11-01T13:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-10-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-10-31T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Related to [Will Brexit happen by End of Day Oct. 31st 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2961/will-brexit-happen-by-end-of-day-october-31st-2019/)]\n\nOne of the key scenario paths where Britain leaves the EU before Oct. 31st is if one of the other 27 EU countries vetos an extension. At [previous Brexit deadlines EU member states agreed to extend the process](https://www.vox.com/2019/4/11/18305082/brexit-news-deadline-october-31-eu-theresa-may); however, [it seems there's a notable frustration and a desire to 'get it over with'](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/08/france-threatens-to-veto-further-brexit-extension). If an EU country does veto a motion for extension, then no-deal Brexit could become the default. \n\n**Will an EU country veto an extension of the Brexit deliberation period on or before Oct 31st 2019?**\n\nThis question will resolve positively if an extension is requested *and* a country (other than the U.K.) vetoes a motion to move the deadline for the U.K. leaving the European Union to a date later than Oct. 31st, 2019. The question resolves negatively if an extension is requested *and* not vetoed. It resolves ambiguous if an extension is not requested.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3100, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1572501444.325634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1572501444.325634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.020767591753531715 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 15.21343094689507, 0.3087621404136369, 0.12318307962189343, 0.0, 0.14473837981608917, 0.42555531820418, 0.0, 0.045849597469312386, 0.0, 0.08002004366402063, 0.0, 0.01714357388246597, 0.03640838614793167, 0.03881022225732753, 0.03269318137797285, 0.03564310727744694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005030841343722017, 0.026235636326043126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013112662329414505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018892335520048254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?", "created_at": "2019-09-13T03:12:00.609444Z", "open_time": "2019-09-15T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-09-16T22:47:55.036314Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-09-16T22:47:55.036314Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-08-19T08:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-19T08:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-08-19T08:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-22T06:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-22T06:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": 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The Democratic Party's process for selecting its nominee begins on February 3, 2020, with the Iowa caucuses, and ends in mid-July at the Democratic National Convention.\n\nThe question here is simple. *Will the presidential candidate who receives the most support in the Iowa Democratic caucuses end up receiving the party's nomination for the presidency?*\n\nThe question will resolve positive if the presidential nominee at the convention won the Iowa caucuses and negative if he or she did not. 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Current Iowa polling data (showing a relatively small lead for Joe Biden) is [here](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/iowa/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3098, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1576987533.419495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1576987533.419495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3311341311740474 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.33424232702972767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3046693563012396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07086722813984636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8219035248766081, 0.7828263969507177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3286647279806401, 0.20565553100230474, 0.05801885663667797, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7208128192938892, 0.0, 1.7949195089983707, 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"spot_scoring_time": "2019-09-13T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-11-07T22:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-11-07T22:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-11-07T22:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-10-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-10-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "After Deepmind's [successful rollout of AlphaStar against Mana](https://www.engadget.com/2019/01/24/deepmind-ai-starcraft-ii-demonstration-tlo-mana/), the AI lab started to test [AlphaStar against players online](https://news.blizzard.com/en-us/starcraft2/22933138/deepmind-research-on-ladder). In this iteration AlphaStar has a limited field of view and more [APM restrictions](https://ai.metaculus.com/questions/2879/by-end-of-2019-will-there-be-an-agent-at-least-as-good-as-alphastar-using-non-controversial-human-like-apm-restrictions/). \n\n[Some redditors are reporting that AlphaStar is getting creamed](https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/d13yex/r_deepmind_starcraft_2_update_alphastar_is/); however, their methodology of tracking and finding AlphaStar games might be unreliable. How likely do you think it is that AlphaStar will win a supermajority of its games against pros?\n\n**By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?**\n\n- We'll evaluate the question when DeepMind releases the results of the experiment.\n\n- This question will resolve positively if AlphaStar wins against [Grandmaster level players](https://starcraft2.com/en-us/ladder/grandmaster/2) more than 80% of the time. \n\n- This question will resolve ambiguously if AlphaStar plays less than ten games against Grandmaster level players.\n\n- We'll only evaluate games played as part of the [Blizzard online experiment](https://news.blizzard.com/en-us/starcraft2/22933138/deepmind-research-on-ladder).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3083, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1573057209.526894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], 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null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3072, "title": "Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election?", "created_at": "2019-09-04T11:37:25.333668Z", "open_time": "2019-09-06T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-09-08T18:47:58.570940Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-09-08T18:47:58.570940Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-09-22T12:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-09-22T12:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-09-22T12:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-09-15T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-09-15T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Tunisian_presidential_election): \n\n> Presidential elections are scheduled to take place in Tunisia on 15 September 2019. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be no later than 3 November.\n\nBusinessman and Politician [Nabil Karoui](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nabil_Karoui) led the last legal poll in July 2019 ([Wikipedia list of polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Tunisian_presidential_election)) but:\n\n> On July 8, 2019, Karoui and his brother Ghazi were charged with money laundering around the 2016 allegations. Their assets were frozen and both were forbidden from leaving the country. He was arrested on August 23 following a warrant by the Tunis Court of Appeal.\n\nHowever:\n\n> Despite Karoui's previous arrest, his candidacy was allowed to remain in place, as he has not yet been sentenced by the courts.\n\nFinal results are usually published by the Instance supérieure indépendante pour les élections (ISIE, [Independent High Authority for Elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_High_Authority_for_Elections)) within a month ([example for 2014](http://www.isie.tn/communiques/2014/12/08/decision-de-linstance-superieure-independante-pour-les-elections-relatives-la-proclamation-des-resultats-definitifs-du-premier-tour-des-elections-presidentielles-2014/)) of the first round, and they by definition have to be published before the second round.\n\nQuestion: ** Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election, according to Tunisia's ISIE.**\n\nResolution details:\n\n + \"Win the popular vote\" here means getting strictly more ballots than any other running candidate.\n + If Karoui is prevented from participating in the first round of the election, this resolves negative.\n + If the first round does not occur or is postponed beyond September, this resolves ambiguous.\n + If the final results are not published by the ISIE before the end of October 2019, this resolves ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3072, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1568566290.635434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1568566290.635434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.422931523432688 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"cp_reveal_time": "2019-09-09T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-09-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-15T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-15T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-19T13:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-01-19T13:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [Grand Slam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_(tennis)) tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September.\n\n[Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most in history by a male player, [according to the tennis website Tennis-x](https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/roger-federer.php).\n\n**Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?**\n\nQuestion resolves negatively upon Federer's retirement or death, and positively upon reports that he won his 21st Grand Slam.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3071, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1579381490.534526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1579381490.534526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], 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"forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3057, "title": "Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-chinese-police-or-military-intervene-in-hong-kong-in-september-2019", "author_id": 110217, "author_username": "michal_dubrawski", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-08-30T14:27:58.992777Z", "published_at": "2019-09-01T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.866106Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-09-01T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-10-01T16:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-10-01T16:47:00Z", "open_time": "2019-09-01T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3057, "title": "Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?", "created_at": "2019-08-30T14:27:58.992777Z", "open_time": "2019-09-01T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-09-02T05:48:49.023039Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-09-02T05:48:49.023039Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-10-01T16:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-10-01T16:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-10-01T16:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-09-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-09-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As tenthkrige wrote in their [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2985/will-the-chinese-police-or-military-intervene-in-hong-kong-in-august-2019/): \n\n> Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China ([wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Hong_Kong_anti-extradition_bill_protests)).\"\n\nSince then the Beijing government has hardened their rhetoric. Chinese state owned media suggested [military intervention](https://time.com/5661163/hong-kong-beijing-intervention/). There have been violent clashes of protesters with the police and pro-Beijing mobsters. Many protesters were arrested, and including some of the protest leaders. There were many speculations [[1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/13/colour-revolution-jibe-implies-china-will-stop-at-little-to-crush-hong-kong-protests)] [[2](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests/china-says-troops-will-defend-hong-kongs-prosperity-ahead-of-planned-pro-democracy-march-idUSKCN1VJ06B)] that the Beijing government will not allow the protests to last until the 70th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party that will be celebrated on the 1st of October. This was also suggested by Roundtable lawmaker [\"Michael Tien Puk-sun who said that according to his sources, the central government has set early September as the \"deadline,\" to calm the situation in Hong Kong\"](http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news.php?id=133263&sid=4)\n\nAgain as tenthkrige wrote in their [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2985/will-the-chinese-police-or-military-intervene-in-hong-kong-in-august-2019/):\n\n> [This article](https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2019/08/06/a-hongkong-une-intervention-par-la-force-est-de-plus-en-plus-probable_5497189_3210.html)(fr) identifies three entities under direct Chinese authorities which could intervene in Hong Kong:\n\n> The People's Armed Police (PAP), a paramilitary police under the authority of the Central Military Commission.\nThe People's Liberation Army (PLA), a military force with 5000 troops stationed in Hong Kong. Hong Kong law allows its intervention by request of the Hong Kong government.\nThe Chinese Police, which could reinforce the equivalent Hong Kong Police Force.\nQuestion: Will either PLA, PAP, or mainland police personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong before October 1st 2019?\n\n**Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?**\n\nPositive resolution will be by either:\n\nThe Chinese or Hong Kong government (or any such government affiliated body) declaring this has happened.\nA UN Security Council permanent member government declaring this has happened.\nOverwhelming media report this has happened (at least 5 separate first hand accounts, preferably with photographic evidence).\nPhysical intervention is taken here to mean that at least some personnel of the Chinese police or PLA or PAP is involved in the controlling, dispersing, or arresting people who are involved in a riot, demonstration, or protest in Hong Kong. These personnel may or may not be requested to assist by Hong Kong government, or the Hong Kong police.\n\nThe question resolves negatively if the evidence in accordance with the above three criteria of the Chinese police or military intervening in September are not found before the end of 7th of October, 2019.\n\nPositive resolution retroactively closes the question 24 hours before the events.\"\n\n----\n\nThis is a copy of this [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2985/will-the-chinese-police-or-military-intervene-in-hong-kong-in-august-2019/) but now it is about the intervention in September. It was copied with tenthkrige's [permission](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2985/will-the-chinese-police-or-military-intervene-in-hong-kong-in-august-2019/#comment-16031).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3057, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1569856389.15572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1569856389.15572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08346606437899358 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.700996514188179, 1.0, 0.4452257211395179, 0.0, 3.7344971157028017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7870364938911899, 0.0, 0.34805835094389953, 0.3940227093104349, 0.0, 1.472577896269343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033422335042386925, 0.13747443227290793, 0.9878636482992644, 0.0, 0.011415200401430712, 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"Wildfires destroy 10Mha of trees before 2031?", "slug": "wildfires-destroy-10mha-of-trees-before-2031", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-08-22T09:31:37.214118Z", "published_at": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.575049Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, 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"environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3042, "title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?", "created_at": "2019-08-22T09:31:37.214118Z", "open_time": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-08-26T06:55:18.575000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-08-26T06:55:18.575000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). \n\nNatural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.\n\nIn 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).", "resolution_criteria": "**Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?**\n\nThis resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3042, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763429029.24371, "end_time": 1764216268.432038, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763429029.24371, "end_time": 1764216268.432038, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.47580867351439365 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.05771699504164168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23072242730151374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2592083317329923, 0.014830008481343462, 0.04095932533358186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0166651779039795, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.07144644286628411, 0.39800547597021246, 0.09081059026293692, 0.33852873698541497, 0.0, 1.6322345282396495, 1.378456055194369, 0.0, 0.14457406902434275, 0.41207610303291553, 0.915109791466939, 0.3879466063228493, 1.0, 0.0, 0.4817346416537838, 2.211197928414851, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.648967154886231, 0.0, 0.7008594225333291, 0.10957976461626417, 0.0, 0.08934312118698887, 0.6047751043366363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.520136487115066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16106653414689315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288555.90281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288555.90281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6155737529367282, 0.38442624706327183 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 175, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). \n\nNatural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.\n\nIn 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute)." } ] }