Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5620
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Developed by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), the mission was launched from the second launch pad at Satish Dhawan Space Centre on 22 July 2019 at 2.43 PM IST (09:13 UTC) to the Moon by a Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle Mark III (GSLV Mk III). It consists of a lunar orbiter, a lander, and a lunar rover named Pragyan, all of which were developed in India. The main scientific objective is to map the location and abundance of lunar water.\n\nThe lander and the rover will land on the near side of the Moon, in the south polar region at a latitude of about 70° south on 7 September 2019.\n\nThe Israeli lander was not successful, and crashed to the lunar surface after a telemetry error. Will the Chandrayaan-2 succeed?\n\n**Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon on any day in September 2019?**", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if the lander is sufficiently intact upon landing so that the carried rover, [the Pragyan rover](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pragyan_(rover)), has functioning control and motor dynamics for at least 1 hour after impact.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3041, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1567718074.230154, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1567718074.230154, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6356774984437897 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1011216878911307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45875031368367064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5506534361945985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.159841791744277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8547966972334589, 0.0, 1.7085850710140642, 0.005716411657967498, 0.31210550135292425, 1.4617088649528234, 0.914402486020691, 0.9215931031121718, 0.0, 0.18409965808495726, 0.3420534270455593, 0.1298586955044776, 0.12346715865021085, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.24089438918197048, 0.14634721205825776, 0.019676189570906492, 0.0, 0.848390712889754, 0.09293152494368159, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.583984291384137, "coverage": 0.9913230641358703, "baseline_score": -75.25515448857021, "spot_peer_score": 2.7283889062359, "peer_archived_score": 5.583984291384137, "baseline_archived_score": -75.25515448857021, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.7283889062359 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1567679371.750046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1567679371.750046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4025518832102746, 0.5974481167897254 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) is India's second lunar exploration mission after [Chandrayaan-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-1). Developed by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), the mission was launched from the second launch pad at Satish Dhawan Space Centre on 22 July 2019 at 2.43 PM IST (09:13 UTC) to the Moon by a Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle Mark III (GSLV Mk III). It consists of a lunar orbiter, a lander, and a lunar rover named Pragyan, all of which were developed in India. The main scientific objective is to map the location and abundance of lunar water.\n\nThe lander and the rover will land on the near side of the Moon, in the south polar region at a latitude of about 70° south on 7 September 2019.\n\nThe Israeli lander was not successful, and crashed to the lunar surface after a telemetry error. Will the Chandrayaan-2 succeed?\n\n**Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon on any day in September 2019?**" }, { "id": 3038, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will no Prime Minister of Italy be named in August 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "short-fuse-will-no-prime-minister-of-italy-be-named-in-august-2019", "author_id": 105951, "author_username": "Sylvain", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-08-21T08:35:44.409132Z", "published_at": "2019-08-22T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.949598Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-08-22T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-08-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-08-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-08-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-08-29T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2019-08-22T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3038, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will no Prime Minister of Italy be named in August 2019?", "created_at": "2019-08-21T08:35:44.409132Z", "open_time": "2019-08-22T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-08-22T20:16:58.856586Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-08-22T20:16:58.856586Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-08-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-08-29T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-08-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-08-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-08-29T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On the 20th of August 2019, the PM of Italy resigned ([AFP](https://news.yahoo.com/d-day-italian-government-pm-conte-resignation-mooted-023109857.html)).\n\nNow a new coalition must be formed, to allow the [President of Italy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy#Role) to name a new Prime Minister.\n\nQuestion: **Will the President of Italy fail to name a new Prime Minister before the end of August 2019?**\n\nResolution shall be by credible media report. The end of August is 2019-08-31 23:59:59, Rome time.\n\nIn case of negative resolution, this will retroactively close 1 hour before the official announcement.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3038, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1567143748.34997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1567143748.34997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.08426467626410297 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.128028306804979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 1.258518306861837, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.5457812878195709, 0.0, 0.9377674830734415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.06290448966866473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19976240866306647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.4984944939190113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"2019-08-19T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-03-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-03T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-04-03T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-19T14:30:00Z", "open_time": "2019-08-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3035, "title": "Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?", "created_at": "2019-08-17T18:21:49.610531Z", "open_time": "2019-08-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-08-20T19:49:47.070983Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-08-20T19:49:47.070983Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-04-03T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-19T14:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-03T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-03-19T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Hawaii Congresswoman Tusli Gabbard, a former Honolulu city councilor and Hawaii state representative, declared her Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019. Though once considered a rising star by the party establishment, she has since become a pariah for what she sees as \"stand[ing] strong against [...] neolibs and neocons dragging us from one regime change war to the next\"; others in the party have seen her as a supporters of authoritarians abroad.\n\nAs of mid-August 2019, Gabbard stands at about 1% in the polling averages. It is still early, but the field is crowded and many other strong candidates have a path to the nomination.\n\nHawaii's primary will be well along in the voting, on April 4, 2020, about three months before the party convention.\n\n**Will Tulsi Gabbard have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in Hawaii's primary election?**\n\nThis resolves positive if before the 2020 Hawaii Democratic primary, Tulsi Gabbard has claimed to no longer intend to participate in as a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections. The 2020 Hawaii primary is currently scheduled for April 4, 2020, but this could change. Resolution should be supported by credible news reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3035, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1584629875.982104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1584629875.982104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4254716132271179 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2970756975148425, 0.0, 0.007821688261774155, 0.0, 0.7752926901367718, 0.0, 0.6633302110538752, 0.0, 0.859060954280857, 0.46665897609187307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3658241735790676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019257120874992883, 0.0, 0.42455253374799096, 0.9440788859299192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06029862714898469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5418018867219165, 0.0, 0.791954347747491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041456195532145274, 0.7905968075893933, 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"", "slug": "will-kirsten-gillibrand-drop-out-before-the-new-york-primary", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-08-13T18:43:32.898809Z", "published_at": "2019-08-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.497999Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-08-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-08-28T21:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-08-28T21:30:00Z", "open_time": "2019-08-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": 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"range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Kirsten Gillibrand, junior United States Senator for New York and former New York congresswoman, launched her Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019. She has a \"soaring national profile in the U.S. Senate\" (Politico) and a particular appeal to college-educated women, but has struggled to break 1% in polling. It is still early, but the field is crowded and many other strong candidates have a path to the nomination.\n\nBy 28 April 2020, when New York's primary is expected to take place, most of the Democratic primary electorate will have already voted and the party convention will be just two-and-a-half months away.\n\n**Will Kirsten Gillibrand have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in New York's primary election?**\n\nThis resolves positive if before the 2020 New York Democratic primary, Kirsten Gillibrand has claimed to no longer intend to participate in as a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections. The 2020 New York Democratic primary is currently expected for Tuesday, April 28, 2020, but this could change. Resolution should be supported by credible news reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3030, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1567028524.419733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1567028524.419733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8931118274731848 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17748291552827444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4887786429344815, 0.08253138866588176, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26893032268036543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.8355804261814468, 0.9096780712946189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 1.7344757185266053, 0.0, 0.1799995535041516, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 1.4050369633677868, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 2.290764274725917 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.2427403432568231, "coverage": 0.05058985068788268, "baseline_score": 3.403854107628927, "spot_peer_score": 9.21679048151627, "peer_archived_score": 0.2427403432568231, "baseline_archived_score": 3.403854107628927, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.21679048151627 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1566922617.247897, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1566922617.247897, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.28399028368513424, 0.7160097163148658 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 3029, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "short-fuse-will-more-than-10-of-flights-departing-from-hong-kong-intl-airport-be-cancelled-on-the-16th-of-august-2019", "author_id": 105951, "author_username": "Sylvain", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-08-13T14:13:00.367179Z", "published_at": "2019-08-14T09:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.531877Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-08-14T09:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-08-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-08-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-08-17T15:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-08-17T15:52:00Z", "open_time": "2019-08-14T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3029, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019?", "created_at": "2019-08-13T14:13:00.367179Z", "open_time": "2019-08-14T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-08-14T16:37:44.339655Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-08-14T16:37:44.339655Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-08-17T15:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-08-17T15:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-08-17T15:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-08-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-08-15T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Hong Kong protesters have recently started occupying Hong Kong Intl. Airport, disrupting many flights.\n\nAccording to the Hong Kong Intl. Airport's [website](https://www.hongkongairport.com/en/flights/departures/passenger.page), on the 12th of August 2019, 118 of 522 departing flights (23%) had been cancelled. As of writing, for the 13th of August, 218 of 511 departing flights were cancelled (43%). For the 14th of August, 56 of 510 departing flights were already cancelled (11%).\n\nQuestion: **On the 16th of August, will the Hong Kong Intl. Airport's [website](https://www.hongkongairport.com/en/flights/departures/passenger.page) list >= 10% of departing flights as \"Cancelled\"?**\n\nResolution:\n\n + The percentages are to be computed from the \"Status\" column of the [linked page](https://www.hongkongairport.com/en/flights/departures/passenger.page) for the relevant day (the website is on HK time), counting number of lines with \"Cancelled\", and the total number of lines. \n + Sadly the website only lists flights from the previous day onward, so the numbers will have to be checked on the 17th at the latest.\n + Failure to retrieve the numbers for any reason resolves ambiguous.\n + **Less than 250 departing flights being scheduled for the 16th resolves ambiguous.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3029, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1565895967.143421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Tom Brady](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady) is 42 years old and is about to start yet another season as the quarterback for the NFL's New England Patriots. Brady already holds the NFL records for being the oldest QB to lead the league in passing, the oldest player to be named MVP of the Super Bowl, and the oldest quarterback to start in—not to mention win—the Super Bowl (which he did earlier this year, at age 41). He is also the [tenth-oldest quarterback](http://www.oldest.org/sports/nfl-quarterbacks/) ever to play in the league.\n\nThe Patriots have recently [extended](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27321411/source-pats-extend-brady-qb-gets-23m-19) Brady's contract through the end of the 2021–2022 season, at which time he would be 44 years old. He has long talked about wanting to play into his mid-40s, and [some](https://nesn.com/2019/08/why-former-nfl-qb-can-see-tom-brady-playing-until-hes-50-years-old/) have suggested that he could play until he is 50 years old. More analysis is [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-brady-and-drew-brees-have-blown-up-the-qb-aging-curve-what-comes-next/).\n\n*Therefore it is asked, will Tom Brady retire on or before the expiration of his current contract?*\n\nThis question will resolve positively if Tom Brady does not play in a single regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season, for any reason. It will resolve negatively if he does play in at least one regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season. The question will resolve ambiguously if there is no 2022–2023 NFL season.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3026, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1570813183.713377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1570813183.713377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5658995987794505 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977796731925345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09622124116773499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.0, 0.5457812878195709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18961981014242568, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 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"name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 3021, "title": "Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?", "created_at": "2019-08-09T23:17:12.382509Z", "open_time": "2019-08-18T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-08-20T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-08-20T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Hubble \"constant\", \\(H_0\\), is basically the _current_ expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time).\nTwo main ways to [determine the value of \\(H_0\\)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy.\n\nA mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at UCSB](https://www.kitp.ucsb.edu/activities/enervac-c19) was convened to bring together both experimental and theoretical researchers in the field to review and assess the current state of affairs and identify promising next steps at resolution. The coordinators for this event drafted a paper [Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625) summarizing the event proceedings. An image from this paper plotting the different values determined by the various methods is [at this link](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg). \n\nVideos and slides of the talks are available [at this conference website link](http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/enervac-c19/). There are also a number of excellent recent science media articles about this issue, e.g. (in descending published date order) by [Natalie Wolchover](https://www.quantamagazine.org/cosmologists-debate-how-fast-the-universe-is-expanding-20190808/), [Emily Conover](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/debate-universe-expansion-rate-hubble-constant-physics-crisis), [Josh Sokol](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/debate-intensifies-over-speed-expanding-universe), and [Davide Castelvecchi](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02198-z). There is also a [twitter hashtag](https://twitter.com/search?q=kitp_h0ttakes&src=typed_query&f=live) devoted to the workshop activity with, e.g., some of the participants tweeting their live reactions during the workshop.\n\nSome examples of areas under investigation for a possible eventual resolution include: (a) identifying and correcting systematic errors in the various determination methods, (b) an [early dark energy](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04083) injection prior to recombination, (c) [nonstandard neutrino physics](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00534), (d) gravity modifications, and in general (e) searching for a discovery of new physics that modifies or replaces the current [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model). As an overview for possible ways forward, a new paper, [The Hubble Hunter's Guide](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.03663), attempts \"to consider the broadest possible set of potential cosmological solutions to reconcile\" the opposing observations.\n\nThe question asks:\n\n**By 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?**\n\nA [criteria that was suggested for determining consensus on a resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-the-measured-values-of-the-hubble-constant-h_0-be-resolved-by-2030/#comment-15872) is to poll researchers working on this issue near the question close date, asking what sigma they ascribe to the discrepancy, assuming ΛCDM. A positive resolution results if the mean of replies by at least 5 polled cosmologists is < 2 sigma. A mean of > 4 sigma resolves as negative; between 2 and 3 is an indeterminate resolution. \n\nFootnote: Examples of early universe methods - Planck, DES+BAO+BBN versus late time methods - SH0ES, CCHP, H0LiCOW, MIRAS, Megamasers, Surface Brightness Fluctuations. See [this graphic](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg) for an illustrative plot of the differences. More information on these methods is in the [conference summary paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625). Note that by 2030, H_0 determinations from [gravitational wave standard sirens](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07775) is likely to have become a robust late time method.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 3021, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763580532.895676, "end_time": 1765154857.878497, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763580532.895676, "end_time": 1765154857.878497, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.49054984245660804 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028709986438327752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15306473011963811, 0.0, 0.05855889144026411, 1.216998672059816, 0.0, 0.1595550832731236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2985, "title": "Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?", "created_at": "2019-08-07T08:01:06.436422Z", "open_time": "2019-08-09T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-08-10T13:43:55.536500Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-08-10T13:43:55.536500Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-09-07T11:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-09-07T11:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-09-07T11:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-08-31T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-08-31T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China ([wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Hong_Kong_anti-extradition_bill_protests)).\n\nOn the 6th of August 2019, Chinese officials hardened their rethoric (Reuters: [1](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-china-office/china-warns-hong-kong-protesters-not-to-play-with-fire-idUSKCN1UW0L3), [2](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests/hong-kong-facing-worst-crisis-since-handover-senior-china-official-idUSKCN1UX089), [3](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-china/chinese-official-says-hong-kong-facing-biggest-crisis-since-1997-idUSKCN1UX07K)) but still did not mention the possibility of direct intervention from the mainland.\n\n[This article](https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2019/08/06/a-hongkong-une-intervention-par-la-force-est-de-plus-en-plus-probable_5497189_3210.html)(fr) identifies three entities under direct chinese authorities which could intervene in Hong Kong:\n\n - The [People's Armed Police](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Armed_Police) (PAP), a paramilitary police under the authority of the [Central Military Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Military_Commission_(China)).\n - The [People's Liberation Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army) (PLA), a military force with 5000 troops stationned in Hong Kong. Hong Kong law allows its intervention by request of the Hong Kong government.\n - The [Chinese Police](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_security_bureau_(China)), which could reinforce the equivalent [Hong Kong Police Force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Police_Force).\n\nQuestion: Will either [PLA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army), [PAP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Armed_Police), or [mainland police](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_security_bureau_(China)) personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong before septembre 1st 2019?\n\nPositive resolution will be by either: \n\n 1. The Chinese or Hong Kong government (or any such government affiliated body) declaring this has happened.\n 2. A UN Security Council permanent member government declaring this has happened.\n 3. Overwhelming media report this has happened (at least 5 separate first hand accounts, preferably with photographic evidence).\n\nPhysical intervention is taken here to mean that at least some personnel of the Chinese police or PLA or PAP is involved in the controlling, dispersing, or arresting people who are involved in a riot, demonstration, or protest in Hong Kong. These personnel may or may not be requested to assist by Hong Kong government, or the Hong Kong police. \n\nThe question resolves negatively if evidence in accordance with the above three criteria of the Chinese police or military intervening in August are not found before the end of 7th of September, 2019.\n\nPositive resolution retroactively closes the question 24 hours before the events.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2985, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1567234153.970256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1567234153.970256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06505800085736577 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.463188532521916, 1.185554290982925, 2.1865010565654583, 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"type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [SuperGlue Benchmark](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) measures progress in language understanding tasks. \n\nThe original benchmark, GLUE (General Language Understanding Evaluation) is a collection of language understanding tasks built on established existing datasets and selected to cover a diverse range of dataset sizes, text genres, and degrees of difficulty. The tasks were sourced from a survey of ML researchers, and it was launched in mid 2018. [Several models](https://gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard/) have now surpassed the GLUE human baseline.\n\nThe new SuperGLUE benchmark contains a set of more [difficult language understanding tasks](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/tasks). Human Level performance on the SuperGlue baseline is 89.8. The current best performing ML model as of July 19th, 2019 is BERT++ with a score of 71.5. Will language model performance have progressed enough that by next year one will have superhuman performance on the SuperGLUE benchmark?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as true if, according to the public [SuperGLUE benchmark leaderboard](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard), a single entry has a score of 90% or higher. This question closes and resolves retroactively 48 hours before the first such score is listed on the SuperGLUE benchmark leaderboard.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2982, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577677546.601461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577677546.601461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8201479472137156 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.31549987370221994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09467292063321112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08734309772970561, 0.0010381920838562959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021274407994285806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34906719769614464, 0.0, 0.016788208467603552, 0.0, 0.0031076199278334622, 0.03281106341016026, 0.0, 0.3745786180276855, 0.0, 0.028094076707128768, 0.3079906308771785, 0.21995282972580607, 0.5475369850104072, 0.0, 0.27088342809749516, 0.014358311246418655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9433465922480667, 0.0, 0.226567834348389, 0.0, 0.033167896481265315, 0.4381179308298777, 0.0, 1.4417409578468379, 0.0, 0.22244923589486904, 0.7899978921399792, 0.4247058044294796, 1.1149032126031555, 0.10251256047355009, 0.0, 1.1400831566851481, 0.0, 1.4941961636554155, 0.052577289157086836, 0.7396859422001165, 0.1293948440529297, 0.259288350972328, 1.36014622047527, 0.11089172218023127, 0.04393255368134378, 0.0, 1.9754107431391417 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -14.769284271601716, "coverage": 0.9996862401864272, "baseline_score": -125.68161743673791, "spot_peer_score": 20.189043420344188, "peer_archived_score": -14.769284271601716, "baseline_archived_score": -125.68161743673791, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.189043420344188 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577677455.830178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577677455.830178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6282165645549345, 0.3717834354450655 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [SuperGlue Benchmark](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) measures progress in language understanding tasks. \n\nThe original benchmark, GLUE (General Language Understanding Evaluation) is a collection of language understanding tasks built on established existing datasets and selected to cover a diverse range of dataset sizes, text genres, and degrees of difficulty. The tasks were sourced from a survey of ML researchers, and it was launched in mid 2018. [Several models](https://gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard/) have now surpassed the GLUE human baseline.\n\nThe new SuperGLUE benchmark contains a set of more [difficult language understanding tasks](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/tasks). Human Level performance on the SuperGlue baseline is 89.8. The current best performing ML model as of July 19th, 2019 is BERT++ with a score of 71.5. Will language model performance have progressed enough that by next year one will have superhuman performance on the SuperGLUE benchmark?" }, { "id": 2976, "title": "Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-more-arxiv-ai-publications-in-the-computation-and-language-subcategory-than-in-the-computer-vision-and-pattern-recognition-subcategory-in-the-calendar-year-2019", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-08-05T20:11:44.630058Z", "published_at": "2019-08-09T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.357886Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-08-09T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-02-04T13:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-02-04T13:12:00Z", "open_time": "2019-08-09T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2976, "title": "Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?", "created_at": "2019-08-05T20:11:44.630058Z", "open_time": "2019-08-09T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-08-11T19:58:16.422720Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-08-11T19:58:16.422720Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-02-04T13:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-02-04T13:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-02-04T13:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "According to analysis in the [2018 AI Index report](http://cdn.aiindex.org/2018/AI%20Index%202018%20Annual%20Report.pdf), publications on arXiv in the subcategory “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” have represented a plurality of AI publications since 2014. \n\nIn 2017 36.74% of AI publications on arXiv were in “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” and 14.42% were in “Computation and Language”.\n\n> **Source**\n> arXiv.org is an online archive of research articles in the fields of physics, mathematics, computer science, quantitative biology, quantitative finance, statistics, electrical engineering and systems science, and economics. arXiv is owned and operated by Cornell University. See more information on arXiv.org.\n\n> **Methodology**\n> The keywords we selected, and their respective categories, are below: Artificial intelligence (cs.AI)\nComputation and language (cs.CL)\nComputer vision and pattern recognition (cs.CV)\nMachine learning (cs.LG)\nNeural and evolutionary computing (cs.NE)\nRobotics (cs.RO)\nMachine learning in stats (stats.ML)\nFor most categories, arXiv provided data years 1999 — 2017. For our analysis, we decided to start at the year 2010 in order to include Machine Learning in Stats, which did not exist on arXiv prior. To see other categories’ submission rates on arXiv, see arXiv.orgs submission statistics.\n\n> **Nuance**\n\n> - Categories are self-identified by authors — those shown are selected as the “primary” category.\nTherefore, it is worth noting that there is not one streamlined categorization process. Additionally,\nthe Artificial intelligence or Machine learning categories may be categorized by other subfields /\nkeywords.\n> - arXiv team members have shared that participation on arXiv can breed more participation —\nmeaning that an increase in a subcategory on arXiv could drive over-indexed participation by certain communities.\n> - Growth of papers on arXiv does not reflect actual growth of papers on that topic. Some growth can be attributed to arXiv.org’s efforts to increase their paper count, or to the increasing importance of dissemination by AI communities.\n\n**Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?**\n\n-----\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThe question will resolve as per the data published by the 2020 AI Index annual report. If the methodology substantially changes relative to the 2018 report, the question resolves ambiguous.\n\n**Data**\n\nRaw data for analysis was provided to AI Index team by representatives at arXiv.org. [Historical data can be accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k6aqXLjNcvU1X6IVuyyQMERrF9TmPst1qktvdOV_vZk/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy if you wish to edit it.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2976, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577823549.753058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577823549.753058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.05435733608356417 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.26317544153727, 1.5743956757474835, 1.4039228718640948, 0.0, 1.5696122416603266, 0.0927320298236634, 0.029058259890870124, 1.0, 0.016279767023399463, 0.10387815857946961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001873194738889857, 0.3551866365553954, 0.10227296739520486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9333198310231191, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.0, 0.05386841605942722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4854536982631921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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protest\" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?", "created_at": "2019-08-05T10:27:12.125307Z", "open_time": "2019-08-06T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-08-07T08:34:35.753805Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-08-07T08:34:35.753805Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-08-13T08:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-08-13T08:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-08-13T08:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-08-10T16:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-08-10T16:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China ([wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Hong_Kong_anti-extradition_bill_protests)).\n\nAs a proxy for the popularity of the protests, we can look at the daily Google search volume for \"Hong Kong protest\" in Hong Kong ([Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&geo=HK&q=Hong%20Kong%20protest)).\n\nQuestion: Between wednesday the 7th of August 2019 and Tuesday the 13th of August 2019 (incl.), **will the daily Google search volume for \"Hong Kong protest\" in Hong Kong go to at least 25% of the 12th of June 2019 value** (the record as of writing)?\n\nPrecisions:\n\n - Resolves positive if the [linked](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&geo=HK&q=Hong%20Kong%20protest) Google Trends shows any day in the relevant period with a search volume >= 25% of the 12th of June peak.\n\n - Resolves negative if no day satisfies this criterion.\n\n - In case of positive resolution, the question will be retroactively closed to the day before the day triggering resolution.\n\n - Google Trends being inaccessible or fundamentally changing their methodology resolves ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1565454213.792099, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1565454213.792099, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 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"author_username": "Sylvain", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-08-02T13:19:32.930568Z", "published_at": "2019-08-04T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.566635Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-08-04T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-08-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-08-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-29T16:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-29T16:50:00Z", "open_time": "2019-08-04T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, 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}, "question": { "id": 2971, "title": "British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020?", "created_at": "2019-08-02T13:19:32.930568Z", "open_time": "2019-08-04T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-08-05T15:18:48.434973Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-08-05T15:18:48.434973Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-29T16:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-29T16:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-29T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-08-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-08-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, 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It is currently (2nd of August 2019) trading at around €1.093.\n\n**Will the GBP trade at equal to, or less than, €1.000 at any time before January 1st, 2020?**\n\nCurrent and historical rates are available from [XE Currency Data](https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=10Y). Resolution should be based on figures XE Currency Data. \n\n<small>This question was inspired by (and partly copied from) [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1639/british-pound--us-dollar-parity-before-2020/), by [Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/101465/) [the Prolific](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=author:Jgalt).</small>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2971, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1567288237.821908, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1567288237.821908, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.46586498643885554 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19030380486090423, 0.0, 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"title": "Short Fuse: Will more than 1000 protesters be arrested in Moscow on the 3rd of August 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "short-fuse-will-more-than-1000-protesters-be-arrested-in-moscow-on-the-3rd-of-august-2019", "author_id": 105951, "author_username": "Sylvain", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-07-29T09:48:55.966378Z", "published_at": "2019-07-29T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.005886Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-07-29T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-08-02T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-08-02T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-08-06T16:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-08-06T16:19:00Z", "open_time": "2019-07-29T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], 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"normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2962, "title": "Short Fuse: Will more than 1000 protesters be arrested in Moscow on the 3rd of August 2019?", "created_at": "2019-07-29T09:48:55.966378Z", "open_time": "2019-07-29T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-07-30T17:42:15.100040Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-07-30T17:42:15.100040Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-08-06T16:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-08-06T16:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-08-06T16:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-08-02T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-08-02T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On the 27th of July, 2019, more than 1000 protesters were arrested in Moscow ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/27/moscow-police-arrest-up-to-200-ahead-of-election-protest)) They were protesting the exclusion of opposition candidates from upcoming elections.\n\nOpposition leaders said they would call for another protest on the 3rd of Augsust, 2019 ([Guardian again](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/29/russian-opposition-leader-alexei-navalny-may-have-been-poisoned-says-doctor)).\n\nWill more than 1000 protesters be arrested in Moscow on the 3rd of August, 2019?\n\n + Resolution is by credible media report.\n + Failure to locate one before the 7th of August, 2019 triggers ambiguous resolution.\n + 1000 arrests resolves positive (because of rounding issues).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2962, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1564782998.043974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1564782998.043974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5479152341050082 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.05265139568081303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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October 31st, 2019?", "created_at": "2019-07-25T05:01:21.776275Z", "open_time": "2019-07-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-07-31T08:06:03.207853Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-07-31T08:06:03.207853Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-11-01T00:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-11-01T00:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-11-01T00:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-10-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-10-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "New Conservative leader, Boris Johnson, proclaimed in [his first speech](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/boris-johnsons-first-speech-as-prime-minister-24-july-2019) as Prime Minister:\n\n> We are going to fulfill the repeated promises of parliament to the people and come out of the EU on October 31, no ifs or buts. \n> And we will do a new deal, a better deal that will maximise the opportunities of Brexit while allowing us to develop a new and exciting partnership with the rest of Europe.\n\nSo, the question is: **will Brexit - an event after which UK is no longer part of the EU - occur by the end of the day (UTC) October 31, 2019**? \n\nThe question resolves positively if UK is no longer part of the European Union by the end of the day October 31, and negatively if it still remains substantially in its current status. For the purposes of the question, the cutoff point is defined as the moment when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. This can happen, for example: by withdrawal agreement between UK and EU, or by the end of the negotiating period as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (provided it is not extended further without any change in status happening - in this case the resolution is negative), repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act, etc. If the agreement specifies that the UK is no longer part of the EU, and is in force by October 31, the resolution is positive even if implementation of some parts of the agreement - e.g. trade deals or customs regime or visa policy - is happening past October 31.\n\nIf the UK leaves the EU but parts of the UK remain in the EU (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) with some kind of special status, the resolution is still positive as long as the main part of the UK - the one inheriting the current government structure - leaves the EU. \n\nIf there is the substantial change in status, but the links with EU are not severed completely, e.g. if some special status for the 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the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?", "created_at": "2019-07-19T07:57:37.101375Z", "open_time": "2019-07-21T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-07-23T12:51:45.079862Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-07-23T12:51:45.079862Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T10:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T10:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T10:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-05-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-05-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\n\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. \n\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\n\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; but [the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality.](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631) \n\nNeedless to say, if these more ambitious developments are actually possible, this technology would enable a radically different future to emerge. Enhancing human cognition may be the most important thing we could ever possibly do.\n\n>Elon Musk: [\"From a long-term existential standpoint... the purpose of Neuralink is to create a high-bandwidth interface to the brain such that we can be symbiotic with AI.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=34) (See 00:35 in the video.)\n\n>[\"It will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition... anyone who wants.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=175) (See 02:55 in the video.)\n\n>[\"You will be essentially snapshotted into a computer at any time. If your biological self dies, you could probably just upload into a new unit. Literally.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=353) (See 05:55 in the video.)\n\n [You can watch the company's July 2019 presentation here,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jndwB7kq0qM) and read their paper [*An integrated brain-machine interface platform with thousands of channels* here.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/703801v1)\n\nThis question asks: **Before 1 January 2022, will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be implanted into the brain of a living human?** \n\nYou can find information on [the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices here.](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices)\n\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on whether regulatory approval will be obtained before 1 January 2022.\n\nNote that any such regulatory approval that allows the implantation of any qualifying device in the brain of a living human will trigger a positive resolution, including (but not limited to) the grant of an Investigational Device Exemption or a Humanitarian Device Exemption. In particular, note that this question *does not* require full regulatory approval to market and sell any device to the public in order for a positive resolution. \n\nResolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished before 2022, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2951, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1590965764.428478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1590965764.428478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5700000000000001, 0.43 ], "means": [ 0.44789054155877733 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0012777297525129875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009052612779617527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1168138966875893, 0.20364401319225228, 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As of mid-July 2019 he stands at around 2% in the polling averages. It is still early, but the field is crowded and many other strong candidates have a path to the nomination.\n\nNew Jersey's primary will be in the very last round of voting, on \nJune 2, 2020, less than two months from the party convention. \n\n**Will Cory Booker have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in New Jersey's primary election?**\n\nThis resolves positive if before the [2020 New Jersey Democratic primary](https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey_elections,_2020), Cory Booker has claimed to no longer intend to participate in as a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections. The 2020 New Jersey primary is currently scheduled for June 2, 2020, but this could change. 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As of mid-July 2019 he stands at around 5% in the polling averages. It is still early, but the field is crowded and many other strong candidates have a path to the nomination.\n\nBy May 5, 2020, when Indiana's primary is scheduled to take place, most of the Democratic primary electorate will have already voted and the party convention will be little more than two months away. \n\n**Will Pete Buttigieg have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in Indiana's primary election?**\n\nThis resolves positive if before the [2020 Indiana Democratic primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Indiana_Democratic_primary), Pete Buttigieg has claimed to no longer intend to participate in as a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections. The 2020 Indiana Democratic primary is currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2020, but this could change. 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violations.\n\nFacebook's been known to move fast and break things, but given the scale of the opposition to their payments play, we now ask:\n\n**Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?**\n\nThis will resolve true if a member of the general public in the U.S. can buy and sell Libra.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2945, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588304660.634137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588304660.634137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2151367394297402 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5673249925897341, 0.06364744615133527, 0.5963399298559716, 0.013089915845658233, 0.4044283844767874, 0.0, 0.3880264910248475, 0.08684250309709093, 1.7891985688512095, 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