Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5640
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Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2937, "title": "Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2019-07-11T14:44:26.881661Z", "open_time": "2019-07-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-07-17T01:42:16.227434Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-07-17T01:42:16.227434Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the _Penicillium_ mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named \"penicillin\" - the antibiotic we know and love today.\n\nSince the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine.\n\nBut they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\n\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000.\n\n**At any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2937, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763680550.64401, "end_time": 1764199287.170384, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763680550.64401, "end_time": 1764199287.170384, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07249616530578085 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.314987418389931, 1.639059069855748, 2.0221155933716126, 1.9691524120951498, 1.0043044639485017, 3.4519039812369474, 1.926389903768582, 0.3405384526227708, 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"", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-boeing-fly-astronauts-to-iss-before-spacex", "author_id": 103304, "author_username": "isinlor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-07-10T19:29:16.220006Z", "published_at": "2019-07-12T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.952614Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-07-12T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-10-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-10-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-05-30T20:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-30T20:29:00Z", "open_time": "2019-07-12T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 116, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2936, "title": "Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?", "created_at": "2019-07-10T19:29:16.220006Z", "open_time": "2019-07-12T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-07-13T17:17:30.293211Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-07-13T17:17:30.293211Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-05-30T20:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-30T20:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-05-30T20:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-10-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-10-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Commercial Crew Development (CCDev)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Crew_Development) is a human spaceflight development program that is funded by the U.S. government and administered by NASA. CCDev will result in US and international astronauts flying to the International Space Station (ISS) on privately operated crew vehicles.\n\nOperational contracts to fly astronauts were awarded in September 2014 to SpaceX and Boeing.\n\nBoth companies suffered delays.\n\nSpaceX already managed to successfully demonstrate uncrewed test flight in March 2019, while Boeing is still planning this step no earlier than August 2019. However, SpaceX suffered a setback due to an explosion of a test spacecraft during testing on Earth.\n\nMetaculus previously estimated:\n\n- [Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1355/attempted-crewed-spacex-flight-prior-to-2020/) to be 38%\n- [Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1701/attempted-crewed-boeing-cst-100-starliner-flight-prior-to-2020/) to be 13%\n\nBoth crewed test flights of [Dragon 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crew_Dragon_Demo-2) and [CST-100](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crewed_Flight_Test) are scheduled no earlier than November 2019. [With SpaceX targeting 15 November 2019 and Boeing 30 November 2019](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/06/station-planning-new-crew-launch-dates/).\n\nThis question asks:\n\n**Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?**\n\nFor this question to resolve positively Boeing needs to deliver 2 living astronauts to International Space Station before SpaceX. The question will resolve negatively if SpaceX manages to do the same before Boeing. The question will resolve ambiguous if neither SpaceX nor Boeing manage to meet the goal before 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2936, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1572553405.375597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1572553405.375597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15458906333856343 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.079576175512257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005792914588336932, 0.03993527825265552, 0.08511893618011131, 0.21208139125471762, 1.4821283512408638, 0.026545336784400485, 2.401798781709989, 0.037060719336139705, 0.009200357925761269, 0.042657314958895784, 1.5335370320964805, 1.5657211174111905, 1.332379221152392, 0.0, 0.5827105082395488, 0.020004151621437434, 1.3196844305080306, 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}, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1572422837.621002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1572422837.621002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.86397149403793, 0.13602850596206995 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 209, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2934, "title": "Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-30-november-2019-will-an-ebola-health-worker-be-injured-or-killed-in-an-attack-against-an-ebola-facility-inside-the-central-african-republic-south-sudan-uganda-rwanda-burundi-or-tanzania", "author_id": 103777, "author_username": "datscilly", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-07-10T10:34:05.740760Z", "published_at": "2019-07-12T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.952906Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-07-12T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-11-29T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-11-29T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-01T11:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-01T11:20:00Z", "open_time": "2019-07-12T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2934, "title": "Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?", "created_at": "2019-07-10T10:34:05.740760Z", "open_time": "2019-07-12T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-07-14T18:24:43.624696Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-07-14T18:24:43.624696Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-01T11:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-01T11:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-01T11:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-11-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-11-29T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*This question was generated from the [IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2](https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge2.html).*\n\nFrequent and sometimes even deadly attacks against the Ebola response efforts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) threaten successful containment of the disease to DRC's borders (<a href = \"https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2019/04/28/the-ebola-outbreak-in-congo-is-getting-worse\"target=\"_blank\">Economist</a>, <a href = \"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/warns-ebola-breach-drc-borders-attacks-stop-190510185356288.html\"target=\"_blank\">AlJazeera</a>, <a href = \"https://www.vox.com/2019/3/1/18245905/ebola-outbreak-congo\"target=\"_blank\">Vox</a>, <a href = \"https://www.france24.com/en/20190524-high-security-ebola-burials-spark-dismay-anger-dr-congo\"target=\"_blank\">France24</a>). 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Part IV: Government and Administration of the Spanish Constitution describes the nomination and appointment process (<a href = \"https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Spain_2011.pdf?lang=en\"target=\"_blank\">ConstitutionProject</a>).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2927, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1564509560.731753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1564509560.731753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06484636997174789 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 6.185131529331289, 1.0136843729884562, 1.2075066300643753, 0.0, 0.47711365806585243, 0.27114422392158133, 0.0, 0.11083038735431396, 0.0, 1.0349478038624371, 0.539066693473018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015977422099957932, 0.0, 0.0, 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6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?", "created_at": "2019-07-02T15:41:14.103188Z", "open_time": "2019-07-08T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-07-10T11:02:39.613451Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-07-10T11:02:39.613451Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-10-05T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-08-25T06:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-08-25T06:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-10-05T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-08-25T06:52:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": 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"default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2823, "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?", "created_at": "2019-07-01T00:29:16.323608Z", "open_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-07-05T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-07-05T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\n\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\n\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \n\n**By the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2823, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { 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null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2817, "title": "In 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?", "created_at": "2019-06-29T16:20:37.031764Z", "open_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-07-05T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-07-05T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n\n\n- 1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n - 1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n - 300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n - 150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe.\n- 2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises.\n \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\n\n**In 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?**\n\nThis resolves positive if credible sources, such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)) reports that the US held 3,800 (or fewer) nuclear warheads at any time in 2029. A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\n\n------\n\nSee also the related question, [If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2817, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763223370.076907, "end_time": 1764220983.147476, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763223370.076907, "end_time": 1764220983.147476, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5786010735787309 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018.\n\nIn any month *before* July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels?\n\nResolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2807, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640992882.814815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640992882.814815, 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"slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2803, "title": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?", "created_at": "2019-06-24T06:53:34.942408Z", "open_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-06-29T18:43:54.092183Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-06-29T18:43:54.092183Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2520-06-12T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.\n\nLet's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\n\n```\ncollatz(n) = \n if (n is 1) return 1\n else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2)\n else return collatz(3n + 1)\nwhere input n is a positive integer.\n```\n\nThe Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs.\n\nLet's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise.\n\nDoes collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist.\n\nNote that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the program could test against an enumeration of the the inputs for which collatz() does not halt. Also note that if collatz() always either halts or encounters a cycle, then collatz_halts() exists by modifying collatz() to check for cycles.\n\nResolution:\n\n- *This question will resolve positively if it is demonstrated that a program must exist that always halts and tests whether the Collatz program halts with a given input.*\n\n- *It will resolve negatively if the Conjecture is proven to be false and such a halting-test program is proven not to exist.*\n\n- *Both of these resolutions will be via publication in a major mathematics journal.*\n\nIf no such proof is published before June 21, 2520, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n\n-----\n\n<small>\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n\n- [Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/)\n- [Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/)\n- 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false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-06-26T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 165, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, 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"binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.\n\n\nAgain, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:\n\n```\ncollatz(n) = \n if (n is 1) return 1\n else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2)\n else return collatz(3n + 1)\n```\n\nwhere n is a positive integer.\n\nThe Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).\n\nFor any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:\n\n1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts.\n\n2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.\n\n3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.\n\nPer [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, \"this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics.\"\n\n*This question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time.* \n\nIf the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.\n\n-----\n\n<small>\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n\n- [Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/)\n- [Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/)\n- [When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/)\n- [When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2802, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { 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"forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2795, "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", "created_at": "2019-06-18T10:06:04.231677Z", "open_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-06-25T08:17:15.252620Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-06-25T08:17:15.252620Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T11:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T11:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\n\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\n\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon?\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2795, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703966747.402168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 218, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703966747.402168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 218, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008937519833466396 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.789508981921514, 7.955165971016187, 0.14778965297240376, 0.0454610997673172, 0.06924889569951279, 0.24341847895337002, 0.037503146980206445, 0.0, 0.00224039753783813, 0.019835595832832398, 0.005945373156390612, 0.5473729231401613, 0.0, 0.0, 6.988422333741267e-05, 0.014214709908500529, 0.0017666445128676326, 0.0, 0.004350589146197948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012093462910418185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025250427926064935, 0.08751062588591764, 0.0, 0.021508667733692935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002804223394863586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002650353653054007, 0.0, 0.00018403049925616954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003673599281593686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03314026175238144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.424261850980679e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0668679378716871e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2364001095435085e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.004446388731868, "coverage": 0.9999449563595211, "baseline_score": 96.3411972832443, "spot_peer_score": 8.103986985936382, "peer_archived_score": 14.004446388731868, "baseline_archived_score": 96.3411972832443, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.103986985936382 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008778.514579, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 218, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008778.514579, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 218, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 448, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\n\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024." }, { "id": 2794, "title": "Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-either-the-japanese-or-norwegian-government-blame-iran-for-the-june-2019-gulf-of-oman-incident", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-06-17T23:39:35.115524Z", "published_at": "2019-06-20T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.390127Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-06-20T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-30T04:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-30T04:19:00Z", "open_time": "2019-06-20T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2794, "title": "Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?", "created_at": "2019-06-17T23:39:35.115524Z", "open_time": "2019-06-20T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-06-22T11:20:57.006981Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-06-22T11:20:57.006981Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-30T04:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-30T04:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-30T04:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On June 13, 2019, [two oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz while transiting the Gulf of Oman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2019_Gulf_of_Oman_incident). The Japanese Kokuka Courageous and Norwegian Front Altair were attacked, allegedly with limpet mines or flying objects, causing fire damage to both ships. This followed from an apparent [attack on four ships in May 2019](May 2019 Gulf of Oman incident\n).\n\nAmid heightened tension between Iran and the United States, the United States blamed Iran for the attacks. Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom supported the United States' accusation, while Japan and Germany have demanded more proof of Iran's culpability.[[1](https://japantoday.com/category/national/japan-demands-more-u.s.-proof-that-iran-attacked-tankers)][[2](https://www.newsweek.com/iran-gulf-oman-germany-trump-administration-1444112)]\n\n**By the end of 2019, will either the Norwegian or Japanese government make an official statement claiming that it is their belief that Iran-affiliated forces were responsible for any damage caused to at least one of the ships in the June Incident?**\n\nThis resolves positively if by the end of 2019, either the Norwegian or Japanese government has blamed Iran-affiliated forces for some of the damage caused to at least one ship. This resolves positive if a statement of blame is made, even if it is subsequently retracted. This resolves negatively if by the end of 2019, neither the Norwegian nor Japanese government has blamed Iran-affiliated forces for the incident.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2794, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1567430949.724986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1567430949.724986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.29146141314933993 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07739348047006786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9456766680316373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06930124042864184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0427141278427043, 0.0, 1.018263887679265, 0.0, 0.8528134800294578, 0.9201574640710105, 0.0, 0.21645317928762883, 0.9792114034829815, 0.0, 0.3826118147882099, 0.0, 0.04888313629975682, 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"2019-06-16T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-12-30T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-30T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T11:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T11:43:00Z", "open_time": "2019-06-16T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2791, "title": "Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?", "created_at": "2019-06-13T15:29:27.165210Z", "open_time": "2019-06-16T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-06-17T11:41:07.357901Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-06-17T11:41:07.357901Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T11:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T11:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-31T11:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-12-30T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-12-30T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Among the various issues that have beset the once-booming cryptocurrency markets is a high degree of regulatory uncertainty, especially in the US where the SEC has taken a rather firm stance that cryptocurrencies constituted securities and fall under the purview of securities laws of various types.\n\nThat might change with the introduction of the [Token Taxonomy Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/2144) introduced in April 2019. The act would allow the explicit classification of some coins as tokens and not securities, and carries a number of other provisions as discussed e.g. [here](https://www.accountingtoday.com/opinion/token-taxonomy-act-20-cooking-low-and-cooking-slow).\n\n*** Will something like this become law? ***\n\nQuestion resolves positive if by the end of 2020, a law with substantially the same content as the above act is passed by congress and signed. Allowable versions would be:\n\n- Any law with the given title, or with a very similar title re-introduced in 2020 with Rep. Warren Davidson as a sponsor or co-sponsor.\n\n- Any law concerning cryptocurrencies, with an overlap of at least 75% of its text with the above act, and with Rep. Warren Davidson as a sponsor or co-sponsor.\n\nIf a law is passed in 2019 or 2020 that arguably includes many of the provisions of this act, but does not satisfy the above\ncriteria, question shall resolve as ambiguous.\n\nIf no law is passed by 2020 directly addressing cryptocurrencies, or if the only law(s) passed are quite different or contrary to the above law's intent, question resolves negatively.\n\nIn the event of a positive resolution, closing time shall be retroactively set to 1 hour before the start of voting by the second body of Congress to vote on the relevant bill.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2791, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609308227.457208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609308227.457208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], 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}, { "id": 2790, "title": "Self-driving car to beat a self-driving truck in making the first cross-USA trip?", "short_title": "Self-Driving Cars Cross US Before Trucks", "url_title": "Self-Driving Cars Cross US Before Trucks", "slug": "self-driving-cars-cross-us-before-trucks", "author_id": 103777, "author_username": "datscilly", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-06-11T04:36:02.972817Z", "published_at": "2019-06-14T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.240765Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-06-14T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2019-12-15T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-15T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-06-14T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2790, "title": "Self-driving car to beat a self-driving truck in making the first cross-USA trip?", "created_at": "2019-06-11T04:36:02.972817Z", "open_time": "2019-06-14T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-06-15T18:45:39.197040Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-06-15T18:45:39.197040Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-15T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While self-driving cars could put hundreds of thousands of taxi drivers out of a job, self-driving trucks could leave millions of truck drivers without work. In his book, *The War on Normal People*, Andrew Yang cites the argument for self-driving trucks to come first:\n\n> Jim Scheinman, a venture capitalist at Maven Ventures who has backed startups in both autonomous trucks and cars, says that self-driving trucks will arrive significantly before cars because highway driving is so much easier. Highways, the domain of semi trucks, are much less complex than urban areas, with fewer intersections and clearer road markings. And the economic incentives around freight are much higher than with passenger cars.\n\n> Morgan Stanley estimated the savings of automated freight delivery to be a staggering \\$168 billion per year in saved fuel (\\$35 billion), reduced labor costs (\\$70 billion), fewer accidents (\\$36 billion), and increased productivity and equipment utilization (\\$27 billion). That’s an enormously high incentive to show drivers to the door—it would actually be enough to pay the drivers their \\$40,000 a year salary to stay home and still save tens of billions per year.\n\nOn the other hand, Elon Musk has suggested that Autopilot will become robust enough to do an [autonomous cross-country roadtrip](https://electrek.co/2019/05/09/self-driving-cross-country-trip-everyone-tesla-this-year-musk/) by the end of the year, although he had made similar promises in [2017 and 2018](https://www.autopilotreview.com/tesla-cross-country-autopilot-2018/):\n\n> We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too\n\n> — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) [May 9, 2019](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1126611407984779264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)", "resolution_criteria": "***Will a self-driving car make a coast-to-coast trip before a self-driving truck does the same?***\n\nThis question will have the same resolution condition as a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/) about self-driving trucks. For resolution, the car or truck must have no safety driver, but need not be commercially available. \"Coast-to-coast\" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1576342152.091548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1576342152.091548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5894722701442223 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29493321218482915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018876485630930608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1130965568839125, 0.0, 0.1900906837396931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031301113244932864, 0.0, 0.9564081090525451, 0.7455345713316219, 0.5776637913514396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8450177995252657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05905405057562772, 0.0, 0.1844779827201663, 0.037813494953784915, 0.5515030519639296, 0.28821298216570146, 0.3864030957427792, 0.819563722101191, 0.62104497002176, 0.5499123981425624, 0.0, 0.14198269353180382, 3.200746999241543, 0.5123123070265474, 0.4008021578256057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014995702346826904, 0.004095049893788444, 0.0438966603889029, 0.9437171652598805, 0.3294207062950159, 0.38642415534064567, 0.5849577636717652, 0.05416656778952044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15768570034637755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06993045450605567, 0.4274130675954733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3336402840767541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10815315711904722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402865099855301 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1576236191.411466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1576236191.411466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6389871466833427, 0.36101285331665733 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While self-driving cars could put hundreds of thousands of taxi drivers out of a job, self-driving trucks could leave millions of truck drivers without work. In his book, *The War on Normal People*, Andrew Yang cites the argument for self-driving trucks to come first:\n\n> Jim Scheinman, a venture capitalist at Maven Ventures who has backed startups in both autonomous trucks and cars, says that self-driving trucks will arrive significantly before cars because highway driving is so much easier. Highways, the domain of semi trucks, are much less complex than urban areas, with fewer intersections and clearer road markings. And the economic incentives around freight are much higher than with passenger cars.\n\n> Morgan Stanley estimated the savings of automated freight delivery to be a staggering \\$168 billion per year in saved fuel (\\$35 billion), reduced labor costs (\\$70 billion), fewer accidents (\\$36 billion), and increased productivity and equipment utilization (\\$27 billion). That’s an enormously high incentive to show drivers to the door—it would actually be enough to pay the drivers their \\$40,000 a year salary to stay home and still save tens of billions per year.\n\nOn the other hand, Elon Musk has suggested that Autopilot will become robust enough to do an [autonomous cross-country roadtrip](https://electrek.co/2019/05/09/self-driving-cross-country-trip-everyone-tesla-this-year-musk/) by the end of the year, although he had made similar promises in [2017 and 2018](https://www.autopilotreview.com/tesla-cross-country-autopilot-2018/):\n\n> We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too\n\n> — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) [May 9, 2019](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1126611407984779264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)" }, { "id": 2788, "title": "Before 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?", "short_title": "AI-Human Emulation Laws before 2025", "url_title": "AI-Human Emulation Laws before 2025", "slug": "ai-human-emulation-laws-before-2025", "author_id": 100597, "author_username": "ghabs", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-06-07T23:48:55.034332Z", "published_at": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.475649Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T18:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-16T10:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-19T18:10:00Z", "open_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 213, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": 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Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html).", "resolution_criteria": "As AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\n\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2788, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731934963.959826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 213, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731934963.959826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 213, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.2817406009632563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7322284948901256, 1.5798851115070562, 0.7851979519346768, 1.8129993658976957, 0.3570571046198525, 0.2030060455546467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6173024195991568, 3.7560496147275053, 0.0, 0.13738070940309152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8713711926660587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6825980387121299, 0.009647466547165287, 0.4135909771451427, 0.0, 0.49555569501859925, 1.5262032644088128, 0.0, 1.711054169470391, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3659814934505077, 0.0, 1.0156567702299735, 0.0005796470983166288, 0.9928830317053597, 0.5225191933289419, 0.38429767847790913, 0.0, 0.00015632590043925012, 1.415690271933217, 0.4287880944332171, 0.0, 0.6392518318550275, 0.19165085215080604, 0.0001433879200641176, 0.0, 1.8874082675961104e-06, 0.26682685784310045, 0.003681910549006946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5427957234301528, 2.833496811277028e-05, 6.155742778351607e-05, 0.033691169511530214, 0.008380291603314396, 0.2798994570133928, 0.005659130414498172, 0.006050063332445998, 0.0, 0.15999383251984942, 0.13907181405458086, 0.060555515015398555, 0.0011314335257290556, 0.010663314445060874, 0.09206525938636856, 0.17498762050180242, 0.005271962426225723, 0.19228462109275812, 0.041103037844108126, 0.11711254056392863, 0.18344172824413651, 0.11249507080822527, 0.05392899134022036, 0.0, 0.0448068510401195, 0.17459080865585888, 0.035336677176681826, 0.021927266526079865, 0.0, 0.012320626225941395, 0.5814425052324751, 0.16758719763444715, 0.1311713334222578, 0.004631034220669319, 0.03290338852519983, 0.0, 0.09181644081068858, 7.518942170395607e-05, 0.0, 0.00045459848909523915, 0.4725963434506968, 0.02747388067388281, 0.06869050962968586, 0.002222243194935659, 0.0, 0.19754807148856066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4843902266517474 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289457.09956, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 210, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289457.09956, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 210, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8798583570642069, 0.12014164293579306 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 28, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 576, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html)." }, { "id": 2783, "title": "On December 31, 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?", "short_title": "ACE Recommends Charity for Wild Animals", "url_title": "ACE Recommends Charity for Wild Animals", "slug": "ace-recommends-charity-for-wild-animals", "author_id": 101911, "author_username": "tetraspace", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-06-03T15:35:18.811040Z", "published_at": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.102730Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:41:00Z", "open_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 2783, "title": "On December 31, 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?", "created_at": "2019-06-03T15:35:18.811040Z", "open_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-06-08T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-06-08T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\n\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Animal Charity Evaluators lists an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\" on December 31, 2023", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703966792.773472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703966792.773472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8320744989489038 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004551500171440974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003530662488013184, 0.0010784108305004398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002890555814196455, 0.00016090796494774804, 0.0012388326694238322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00036601963165768176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006618547477705139, 0.09738272128336482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012497772419926385, 0.00010633760576014552, 0.001660783635851294, 0.0, 0.0027223742919663453, 0.0, 0.0005513502689110807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4892359292110529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7040312082123765, 0.04289965199472163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017143622596427165, 0.04989196290502478, 0.07158300716334323, 0.26335160203566965, 0.06955922078988591, 0.0, 0.6689157103541861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0537903453267108, 0.6353801166672093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03992756526622757, 0.19334357647274777, 0.30372095733782645, 0.022282277160874307, 0.012869869565690016, 0.0, 1.3380692573674504, 0.0, 0.4105874255688492, 1.2007193364163604, 0.6374564811246898, 2.3389152742433774, 0.0, 0.14916826515693185, 0.0, 0.9675949621810501, 1.9691675337833388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18945377969097518, 0.11661334446446864, 1.2108854354161847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5198289940014407 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703966792.773472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703966792.773472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.24872317376573916, 0.7512768262342608 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 362, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\n\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities." }, { "id": 2773, "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-05-27T17:06:18.602683Z", "published_at": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.540906Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 214, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 2773, "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?", "created_at": "2019-05-27T17:06:18.602683Z", "open_time": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-05-30T13:25:12.004880Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-05-30T13:25:12.004880Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-07T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\n\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \n\nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \n\nThis question asks: **Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?**\n\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2773, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641509866.026911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641509866.026911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.022538172144883423 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 21.95910546060965, 1.4381102277299287, 1.1282800982024381, 0.4325563374892991, 0.5072882269982455, 0.24756227821833546, 0.445779625150126, 0.0006061580727487166, 0.2292230294113066, 0.026455131282955815, 0.0, 5.1359326984613e-06, 0.0, 0.8420578652495897, 0.035233763519745796, 0.0, 0.07216942217827173, 9.054743951066288e-05, 0.0, 0.05182895765942063, 0.010849344876502088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3325418441092725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00048627374159181824, 0.0, 0.0, 9.673125116967922e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.478776609669971, "coverage": 0.999994715499763, "baseline_score": 94.20147453983404, "spot_peer_score": 2.0560046761393083, "peer_archived_score": 7.478776609669971, "baseline_archived_score": 94.20147453983404, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.0560046761393083 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641509866.080357, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641509866.080357, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9949507334617462, 0.00504926653825376 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 356, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
